John Brennan Lawyers Confirm Their Client Is A "Target" Of A Grand Jury Investigation

Authored by Sundance via The Last Refuge,

Lawfare lawyer Kenneth Wainstein representing former CIA Director John Brennan confirmed in a proactive litigation letter to Chief Judge Cecilia M. Altonaga of the Federal District Court for the Southern District of Florida, their client is a “target” of a grand jury investigation.

The word “target” is important here, because the letter specifically outlines how Brennan has received subpoenas for documents and information surrounding his construct of the 2017 Intelligence Community Assessment.

The letter notes that prosecutors from the Office of the United States Attorney for the Southern District of Florida, Jason Reding Quiñones, have advised Mr. Brennan that he is “a target” of a grand jury investigation.

[SOURCE]

The letter by is by Mr. Kenneth Wainstein, a partner in Mayer/Brown law firm, Washington DC, who served in the administrations of Presidents George W. Bush and Joseph R. Biden Jr., and he describes a “concocted case” and “politically motivated and fact-free criminal investigation.”

Wainstein is seeking proactive intervention by Chief Judge Altonaga to block U.S. Attorney Quinones from seeking jurisdiction in the Fort Pierce Division, the court with jurisdiction over the Mar-a-Lago raid, led by Judge Aileen Cannon.

I strongly urge everyone interested to READ THE ENTIRE LETTER to understand why I shared prior warnings about the nonsense ramblings of perhaps well-intentioned voices who will create problems for this case against Brennan if it is to continue.

Pay attention to the footnotes being cited by Brennan’s lawyers as they begin to pull in some of the commentary by voices who have publicly given opinion about the overall Trump targeting operation.  Mike Davis name appears frequently in this letter, as the Brennan defense team begins to frame the conspiratorial nature of some claims against their client.

In essence, the Brennan legal team are attempting to refute the evidence by pointing to the blanket of some crazy commentary that covers it. This is exactly what I have been cautioning about {SEE HERE}.

U.S Attorney Quinones already faces an uphill battle, because John Durham already reviewed the ICA origination as part of his investigation – but Durham never prosecuted anyone inside government.

This year, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard released a tranche of background information, [114 pages of information], showing how the Obama administration intentionally and with great purpose fabricated the Russia election interference story. DNI Tulsi Gabbard Press Release Here – Files Containing Evidence Here

What the evidence shows is a focused targeting operation intended to fabricate a false premise by the United States Intelligence Community, centered around a fraudulent CIA analysis (ICA) led by John Brennan, and organized through the Office of former DNI James Clapper.  The op was green-lighted by Barack Obama as a way to impede the agenda of incoming President Donald Trump.  All three branches of government eventually collaborated on the scheme.

Lawyers for John Brennan are now seeking to proactively undermine the grand jury proceedings and influence the venue where any investigation and review might be taking place.  [pdf, Page 9] 

In addition to sending the letter to the Southern District of Florida, John Brennan also sent the letter to the New York Times to help him frame a media defense.

[…] Pursuing the case in Fort Pierce, Fla., would draw jurors from a more conservative area than the District of Columbia and put it under Judge Cannon, who showed Mr. Trump unusual favor during the documents investigation. In particular, Mike Davis, an influential former Republican Senate staff aide and friend of Mr. Reding Quiñones, has pushed the idea of a Fort Pierce grand jury, warning Mr. Trump’s adversaries to “lawyer up.” (read more)

Again, get familiar with this letter, because you will find me citing it quite a bit in the next few weeks.

Wainstein and Brennan have made a significant strategic mistake by detailing their defenses, specifically by framing the background context of prior investigative authorities in their positions.  What they have inadvertently done for Jason Quiñones is to give a potential expanded witness list for a conspiracy review.

With information from a mountain of previous research, Quiñones can now call ancillary actors to testify as to the nature of their participation based on the storyline of Brennan.  Wainstein even cited the Robert Mueller investigation as part of his defense for his client.

Example, people like the SSCI chair Rubio, and/or Vice-Chair Warner, along with Feinstein’s lead staff Dan Jones, and/or the SSCI Security Director James Wolfe, can be called to answer questions within a grand jury proceeding based on the claims of Brennan’s defense team in this letter.

Former DNI James Clapper, former NSA Director Mike Rogers, former National Security Advisor Susan Rice and former counterintelligence officers could all be questioned based on Brennan’s defense.

All of the Brennan defense citations in the letter open up pathways for Quinones questioning.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/23/2025 - 14:50

From Intercontinental Exchange: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Seasonal and Calendar Factors Drive Rise in November Delinquencies

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE:ICE) ... today released the November 2025 ICE First Look at mortgage delinquency, foreclosure and prepayment trends.

“While the topline delinquency numbers show a sharp increase, we’ve seen comparable spikes in prior years when November ended on a Sunday and scheduled payments didn’t post until early December,” said Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research at ICE. “Overall performance was in line with what historical patterns would suggest. That said, December data will be important to watch to confirm how quickly borrowers recover from this temporary uptick.”

Key takeaways from this month’s findings include:

• Delinquencies rose: The number of past-due mortgages rose by 275,000 from October to 2.3 million in November, pushing the national delinquency rate to 3.85% — the highest level in over four years.

• Inflow of newly delinquent borrowers: 609,000 borrowers who were current on payments in October became delinquent in November, marking the largest single-month inflow since May 2020. Rolls from 30- to 60-day and 60- to 90-day delinquency bands also increased sharply.

• Delinquencies aligned with historical calendar effects: November’s delinquency rate increase was in line with prior years when the month ended on a Sunday, which last occurred in 2014 (+61 bps), 2008 (+112 bps), and 2003 (+57 bps) — all of which exceeded this year’s 50 basis point increase.

• Prepayments declined: After reaching a 3.5-year high in October, prepayment activity retreated in November, falling 18% month over month.

• Foreclosure activity mixed: Foreclosure activity dipped in November due to seasonal and calendar effects. However, foreclosure starts (+25%), sales (+25%) and active foreclosure volumes (+21%) all remain well above last year’s levels.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a table from ICE.

More Ukrainian Strikes On Russian Energy Sector Amid Ongoing Pressure For Zelensky To Make Concessions

Ukraine is desperately hitting back at Russia's energy sector at a moment it remains under immense pressure from Washington to make serious concessions which might lead to achieving a peace deal.

Overnight drone attacks attempted to inflict damage on the Stavrolen petrochemical plant in southwestern Russia. The operation appeared at least somewhat successful amid reports of fires at the site, and as Russia confirmed attempts to intercept inbound drones.

Ukrainian drones attempted to attack the energy targets in the town of Budyonnovsk, triggering air defenses, with the regional governor confirming "There are fires in the industrial zone" and that "Emergency services are on site" - however thankfully that there were no casualties or damage to surrounding homes. Unverified videos widely circulating online do show large flames in the sky from the direction of the plant.

These Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil and energy sites have slowed compared to their high tempo of a month ago and prior.

This could in part be because every time Ukraine hits Russian territory with a significant or damaging attack, Russia's military comes back harder with large-scale retaliation on Ukraine's own critical infrastructure. 

Ukrainian strikes hit the "Stavrolen" petro-chemical plant located Budyonnovsk, Stavropol Krai, southern Russia.

A significant fire broke out at the facility following the attack. pic.twitter.com/y7uVIQ3jOf

— Status-6 (Military & Conflict News) (@Archer83Able) December 23, 2025

Early Tuesday witnessed another huge Russian aerial attack across Ukraine which reportedly killed three people and plunged who regions into darkness. Local media details, "Explosions were reported across multiple regions, including Rivne and the Ivano-Frankivsk region in the far west, with hits recorded in the towns of Burshtyn and Rohatyn. The blasts were also heard near Cherkasy, as well as in Odesa, Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, and Zhytomyr regions."

BBC related President Zelensky's description of the fresh attack as follows:

Russia carried out a "massive" overnight attack on several Ukrainian cities, President Volodymyr Zelensky has said, a day after he warned of strikes over the Christmas period.

At least three people were killed, according to Ukrainian officials, including a four-year-old child, while energy infrastructure was also targeted, leaving several regions without power.

Russia launched 635 drones and 38 missiles, Ukraine's air force said, adding that 621 of them were downed.

Zelensky said "people simply want to be with their families, at home, and safe" in the run-up to Christmas, and said the strikes sent "an extremely clear signal about Russia's priorities" despite ongoing peace talks.

Damaged home from Russia's fresh assault which spanned several cities and regions of Ukraine:

Power has been cut to many thousands in freezing winter temperatures across Ukraine, as the national energy ministry confirmed there would have to be more rolling blackouts as immediate repair work to the damage is undertaken.

Such power restrictions have become to the norm in various parts of Ukraine. Even US leaders have acknowledged that the energy grid is being degraded and damaged faster than it could possibly be repaired, and no solutions have been offered.

Ukrainian foreign minister Andrii Sybiha has called on "collective transatlantic strength" in the face of these attacks and said that peace must be forced on Moscow. "This can be achieved through increasing the cost of continuing this war for the aggressor," he said on X.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/23/2025 - 14:20

Chicago's Guaranteed Income Guarantees Less Opportunity

Authored by Josh Bandoch via RealClearPolitics,

There have been more than 150 guaranteed income pilot programs implemented across the country, but only one has made its program permanent – Cook County, Illinois.

The county, which includes Chicago, became the first place in America to commit to a taxpayer-funded program indefinitely, serving as the nucleus for expanding the scope of these programs nationally. Taxpayers and recipients beware.

A guaranteed income program is simple: Give low-income people a monthly amount of money to use as they see fit. These payments are in addition to other welfare benefits they receive, and don’t come with any requirements to work, to learn better money management, or to get job training.

The idea is to promote equity and help the poor and disadvantaged, a noble goal, but in practice it can harm families by reducing work, income, and opportunity.

They’re extremely expensive, too, and threaten to wreck the finances of any city or state that implements them with ever-higher taxes.

Cook County used $42 million in funds from the American Rescue Plan to run a two-year pilot program that provided 3,250 low- to moderate-income participants with $500 per month.

The results? One firm committed to “equitable economic development” found four apparent benefits.

Their modeling estimated that households directly spent 55.8% of the money received. The $42 million investment generated only $8.3 million annually for local businesses and a $5.4 million increase in annual economic output in Cook County. Generating $286,000 in tax revenue, $44,000 of which stayed in Cook County.

One concern with these findings is that no results from a control group were reported. There’s no way of knowing if the increases were a result of these 3,250 recipients or if it was simply a post-pandemic boon.

The county is continuing the program in 2026 at a cost of $7.5 million to local taxpayers.

Another study of a more rigorous Chicago-area pilot program with a control group found that the program discouraged participants from working and reduced their earned income.

Taking part in the pilot actually lowered participants’ earned income by $1800, excluding program payments. Recipients’ workforce participation dropped by 3.9 percentage points. 

Participants and, surprisingly, others in the recipient’s household, ended up reducing their hours worked per week. Children who grow up around full-time working adults are more likely to climb the economic ladder, so this reduction in work threatens the future of participants’ children.

Still, the appetite for guaranteed income programs is rapidly expanding in Illinois and nationally. Illinois allocated $827,272 in its 2026 budget to fund a pilot.

In October, Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-NJ) reintroduced the Guaranteed Income Pilot Act, with the stated goal of lifting people out of poverty. The federal program would select 20,000 participants.

Of them, 10,000 would receive “a cash payment each month equal to the fair market rent for a 2-bedroom home in the ZIP Code in which the eligible individual resides, or a substantially similar amount.” In Chicago, the payment would increase to $2,670 per month. In New York, it’d be $2910. A control group would contain 10,000 people.

A final report on the program would explicitly be required to study the feasibility of expanding the program. The goal of these programs – sometimes explicitly stated – is to cover more people.  

The federal government spends $1.2 trillion on welfare programs. Despite all that spending, the federal poverty rate has stubbornly hovered between 11% and 15% for decades.

Providing no-strings cash payments won’t solve poverty, and it won’t ensure recipients can gain the skills and experiences necessary to climb the economic ladder.

The best way to help low-income Americans is to expand opportunity. This starts by removing systemic barriers the government has created that disincentivize work.

America’s welfare system makes it economically rational and psychologically understandable for poor people to reject opportunities due to “benefits cliffs.” Increases in income through raises and promotions can cause recipients to lose more in welfare benefits than they gain in higher earnings.

To solve these cliffs, federal lawmakers should consolidate programs to reduce redundancy, standardize benefit reductions across programs, and streamline benefit delivery systems.

State and local elected officials should focus on empowering people through work rather than disincentivizing it. The best way to do this is to adopt a career-first education system that’ll ensure people have the skills they need to work and cast aside the broken degree-first model.

With guaranteed income programs gaining traction, we need to instead embrace the reality that the only proven way to guarantee more income and opportunity and help low-income Americans is work.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/23/2025 - 14:00

Ugly, Tailing 5Y Auction Sees Slide In Foreign Demand As Directs Take Record High

After a disappointing, subpar, tailing 2Y auction started off the last coupon week of the year, moments ago we got the week's second auction, a $70BN sale of 5Y paper which was also disappointing.

The auction stopped at a high yield of 3.747%, up from 3.557% in November and the highest since July. It also tailed the When Issued 3.7146 by 0.1bps. This was the 6th tail in the past 7 auctions.

The bid to cover dropped to 2.35 from 2.41 last month; thie was the lost since September and also below the recent average of 2.36.

The internals were also soft, especially at the Indirects: foreign buyers took down just 59.5%, the lowest since September and well below the recent average of 61.8%. The trend is clearly not the 5Y tenor's friend. 

But it was Directs who saved the day: awarded 31.7%, this was the highest on record.

As a result, dealers were left holding 8.8%, tied for the lowest on record.

Overall, this was an ugly, tailing 5Y auction but it could have been even worse had Directs not stepped up. Or maybe they did just because they know that in a few more months the Fed will expand its universe of QE purchases from Bill-2Y all the way to 5Y... and beyond, as Powell gradually shifts to the endgame, which as readers know well, is nothing less than Yield Curve Control.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/23/2025 - 13:24

The EU's Failed Attempt To Steal Russia's Seized Assets Was Self-Discrediting

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

It arguably dealt irreparable damage to the bloc’s reputation as a safe location in which foreigners the world over could store and invest their financial assets after influential members left no doubt about their desire to steal its assets, thus signaling that they might try to steal other countries’ one day too.

It was assessed last week that “The EU’s New Policy Towards Russia’s Seized Assets Isn’t About Helping Ukraine” after influential members of the bloc moved to either outright confiscate at least some of Russia’s seized assets for giving to Ukraine or use at least some of them as collateral for a loan to it. As was written, the real purpose was denying the US access to these funds for joint projects with Russia per point 14 of Trump’s reported 28-point peace deal framework, not arming Ukraine or reconstructing it.

For as much as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and her compatriot German Chancellor Friedrich Merz tried, they failed to reach consensus on this unprecedented move, which would have provoked the US’ wrath like was explained in the analysis above. Instead, they reached a compromise whereby members – except Czechia, Hungary, and Slovakia – will raise common debt to finance a €90 billion loan to Ukraine over the next two years, thus perpetuating the conflict.

This was an attempt to “save face” after their whopping 16-hour-long talks on this issue since no outcome at all would have exposed the bloc’s impotency, yet The Economist concluded right afterwards that the US will still see it that way since its two most powerful politicians ultimately didn’t get their way. To add insult to the injury inflicted upon the German Chancellor’s reputation, the Financial Times then cited a source who claimed that “Macron betrayed Merz” by not backing the latter’s plot.

The EU’s failed attempt to steal Russia’s seized assets was therefore self-discrediting for him and von der Leyen personally but also for the EU as a whole since it arguably dealt irreparable damage to the bloc’s reputation as a safe location in which foreigners the world over could store and invest their financial assets. Even though Russia’s seized ones weren’t (yet?) stolen, there’s no longer any doubt that influential members of the EU had the intent to do so, thus shattering the aforesaid perception.

As was written in the analysis hyperlinked to in the introduction, “Foreign investors might be spooked into fearing that their assets are no longer safe and could thus pull them from EU banks and not deposit future ones there either. The bloc might therefore ultimately lose hundreds of billions of dollars, perhaps upwards of a trillion or even more with time”. After all, since they tried to steal Russia’s assets, they might also try to steal the assets of other countries with which they might have problems one day too.

Unlike Russia, however, relatively less significant states might not have the chance to reach a deal along the lines of the US’ proposed one whereby a share of these assets would be returned in the form of joint investments if other conditions are met. Even so, the EU would still have to cross the Rubicon by authorizing the theft of those countries’ seized assets and also importantly defend this decision in court when it’s legally challenged, with a supportive ruling dealing a deathblow to the bloc’s reputation.

Top non-Western countries like China and India, which are the possible targets of European political (and perhaps other forms of) aggression after Russia, might not want to risk that and could thus begin transferring some of their EU-based assets and not depositing more (at least at scale) in the future. It remains to be seen just how financially damaging the EU’s failed attempt to steal Russia’s seized assets was, but there’s no doubt that it was self-discrediting, which in any case damages the bloc’s reputation.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/23/2025 - 13:20

Musk, US Gov't In Talks Over Land Swap Deal To Expand SpaceX Launch Operations

The Trump administration is considering a proposed land swap that would transfer about 775 acres of federally protected land in the Lower Rio Grande Valley National Wildlife Refuge to SpaceX, allowing Elon Musk's rocket company to expand launch operations in the newly incorporated town of Starbase, Texas, helping ensure America continues to lead the space race into the 2030s.

New documents obtained by The New York Times show that SpaceX would give the federal government approximately 692 acres of land it owns elsewhere in Cameron County in exchange for 775 acres.

Not surprisingly, the proposed land swap has caused an uproar among conservationists and archaeologists who say the 775 acres are home to endangered species and even part of the Palmito Ranch Battlefield.

However, Fish and Wildlife Service officials have taken a more optimistic view of the proposed land swap. In an October memorandum, Stewart Jacks, the agency's acting regional director for the Southwest region, wrote that the swap deal would deliver a "net conservation benefit."

The deal would "facilitate greater habitat protections for important fish and wildlife resources," Jacks wrote in a letter to Brian Nesvik, the director of the Fish and Wildlife Service. He added that SpaceX would divest of lands that "include high-quality habitat for a myriad of species, including the endangered ocelot."

But Sharon Wilcox, the senior Texas representative for Defenders of Wildlife, a conservation group, said she was skeptical of Jacks' claims, noting that "With SpaceX present in this place, we have a very explosive force nestled in among all of these really fragile habitats."

What's clear is that any proposed land swap would have been rejected if Democrats were still in the White House. In fact, Musk blamed federal agencies, such as the Fish and Wildlife Service, for being weaponized against him during the Biden-Harris regime years that slowed rocket launches.

To expand Starbase City, it seems a lot more land will be needed. SpaceX says on its website that it plans "to build 1,000 Starships per year in order to send enough crew and cargo during Mars transfer windows to build a self-sustaining civilisation."

Starbase City is incredibly special, with its cutting-edge industrial spaceflight infrastructure, including a purpose-built town that merges factories, launch pads, housing, and local services into a single live-work town built entirely around the Starship program.

The city is the first of its kind, well, at least in our generation, as building company towns in the 1800s and 1900s was popular nationwide when America was an industrial powerhouse. Those times are changing as the Trump administration seeks to revitalize the nation's industrial core.

Thanks to Musk, America leads the space race and will likely continue to do so well into the 2030s.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/23/2025 - 12:40

Johnson Whips Out Warning Over 3rd Trump Impeachment If Democrats Win Midterms

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) warned that President Donald Trump could face another House impeachment inquiry if Republicans don’t win the 2026 midterm elections.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) at a press conference in Washington on Nov. 3, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

“Everything is on the line in the midterms of 2026, and we have much more to do. But if we lose the House majority, the radical left, as you’ve already heard, is going to impeach President Trump. They’re going to create absolute chaos; we cannot let that happen, and I know you won’t,” Johnson told the audience at the AmericaFest event in Phoenix on Sunday.

The House speaker added that the audience should emulate Charlie Kirk, the conservative podcaster who was assassinated in September, saying that they should “fight like happy warriors, advance his principles, and adopt his approach.” AmericaFest is an annual event hosted by Turning Point USA, which Kirk had founded.

“We will win next year, and we will save the greatest nation in the history of the world,” Johnson said.

House Democrats impeached Trump twice during his first term. In late 2019, they charged him with abuse of power centered around a phone call that he had with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy over military aid. The second occurred in 2021 after the breach at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6 of that year. The Senate acquitted him both times.

Earlier this year, Johnson told the Shreveport Times, “Democrats would vote to impeach [Trump] on their first day” in office if they won in the 2026 midterm elections. In October, he offered a similar message to Fox News’ Laura Ingraham and predicted that the GOP would win those elections.

It takes a simple House majority to impeach a sitting president. However, the bar is set much higher in the Senate, where a two-thirds majority is needed to convict.

Several Democratic lawmakers, including Reps. Al Green (D-Texas) and Shri Thanedar (D-Mich.), have said they will try to impeach Trump.

The House in June voted overwhelmingly to set aside an effort to impeach Trump on a sole charge of abuse of power after he launched military strikes on Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities without first seeking authorization from Congress. The measure was sponsored by Green. Most Democrats joined the Republican majority to table it.

Earlier this month, the House voted 237–140 to shelve another Green impeachment resolution, with 47 Democratic lawmakers voting present. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and his deputies said in a statement before the vote that impeachment “requires a comprehensive investigative process” that had not been undertaken by the Republican majority.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/23/2025 - 12:20

DOJ Releases More Epstein Files After Blowing Deadline, Says Some Documents Contain False Claims

After missing a Friday deadline to release 'all' of the 'Epstein Files,' nuking several files containing images of President Donald Trump (before restoring them!), and heavily redacting most of what came out (which can apparently be un-redacted to reveal salacious claims against Trump), the DOJ on Tuesday morning released nearly 30,000 additional pages according to a statement posted on X, which also warned that some of the claims made in the documents against Trump are 'untrue and sensationalist.'

"Some of these documents contain untrue and sensationalist claims made against President Trump that were submitted to the FBI right before the 2020 election," reads the post. "To be clear: the claims are unfounded and false, and if they had a shred of credibility, they certainly would have been weaponized against President Trump already.

"Nevertheless, out of our commitment to the law and transparency, the DOJ is releasing these documents with the legally required protections for Epstein’s victims." 

The Department of Justice has officially released nearly 30,000 more pages of documents related to Jeffrey Epstein.

Some of these documents contain untrue and sensationalist claims made against President Trump that were submitted to the FBI right before the 2020 election. To be…

— U.S. Department of Justice (@TheJusticeDept) December 23, 2025

For example:

“He raped me.”

“Donald J Trump had raped her along with Jeffrey Epstein.”

“She was found with her head ‘blown off’… there was no way it was a suicide.”

Now we’re starting to see why Trump was hiding the Epstein files, and it probably gets much worse. pic.twitter.com/QJ8T0FzjSn

— Melanie D'Arrigo (@DarrigoMelanie) December 23, 2025

The releases were mandated by the Epstein Files Transparency act, which was passed in Congress and signed into law by Trump. It requires the DOJ to produce all records related to Epstein, accomplice Ghislaine Maxwell, and any other possible co-conspirators by Dec. 19. 

Over the weekend, Deputy AG Todd Blanche said that the DOJ is working to make redactions to files to protect possible Epstein victims, telling NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday "The reason why we are still reviewing documents and still continuing our process is simply that to protect victims," adding that the DOJ is "going through a very methodical process with hundreds of lawyers looking at every single document and making sure that victims’ names and any of the information from victims is protected and redacted, which is exactly what the [Epstein Files] Transparency Act expects."

Except, apparently it's amateur hour at the DOJ...

many of the "redacted" PDFs from the epstein files aren't actually redacted, they just have black boxes drawn over text. the underlying data is fully extractable.

this is an example. in this case it's just photo processing paperwork from a palm beach camera shop pic.twitter.com/kjFVMHJuF9

— celeste (@vmfunc) December 23, 2025

 In a Saturday evening statement, the DOJ wrote that it had re-released 119 pages of materials that had been entirely redacted.

"Documents and photos will continue to be reviewed consistent with the law and with an abundance of caution for victims and their families," the department posted to X. 

Maxwell is serving a 20-year federal prison sentence stemming from her 2021 conviction for sex trafficking crimes, while Epstein was found dead in a New York City jail cell in Aug. 2019 while awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/23/2025 - 12:00

Will The CME Raid The Silver Party?

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Silver’s parabolic rise has been remarkable. Its price has more than doubled this year and is nearly three times higher than in 2023. The current surge closely mirrors two previous price jumps shown below. 

In this article, we examine the two similar price surges shown below to provide context for what may be occurring today and, importantly, for what might cause this bubble to pop tomorrow.

The Post Financial Crisis Silver Surge

As the turmoil of the Financial Crisis of 2008 began to ease in 2009, the price of silver embarked on a 500% rally, rising from $8.50 to $50.00 over two years. The Fed’s excessive monetary responses to the crisis, alongside heavy speculation, created a perfect storm for silver.

During the crisis, the Fed cut interest rates to zero, introduced QE, and implemented a host of monetary bailouts. As a result, real interest rates (adjusted for inflation) collapsed into negative territory. The graph below shows that 2-year UST real yields fell sharply in 2009 and continued lower until mid-2011. The increase in silver prices coincided with the decline in real yields.  Such distortions in monetary policy, as evidenced by real yields, benefit silver as it is considered a high-beta monetary hedge against extreme monetary policy actions.  

While the monetary environment was conducive to such a rally, there was also a supply-demand mismatch benefiting prices. The supply of silver is relatively inelastic, meaning that mining operations can’t promptly increase output to meet rapid changes in demand. The advent of ETFs makes the asset class far more accessible to a much larger class of investors, adding to the supply-demand imbalance. Maybe most impactful, speculative investors, using futures, options, and other forms of leverage, significantly boosted demand.

The boom ended in 2011 when the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) raised margin requirements five separate times in nine days. The graph below, courtesy of Business Insider, shows the doubling of silver margin requirements and the destructive impact on prices.  The CME’s action forced deleveraging in the futures markets, resulting in silver falling by nearly 30% over a few weeks. Demand for physical silver didn’t necessarily vanish, but leverage and the extra buying power it created did. Additionally, QE2 ended in June 2011; real interest rates began to rise, and the U.S. dollar appreciated.

The Fed’s unprecedented monetary policy actions and speculative leverage drove up silver prices. As those factors reversed, and the CME made leverage costlier, silver prices crashed.

The 1970s Hunt Brothers Squeeze

The Hunt brothers, Nelson, Lamar, and William, had extensive holdings in oil, real estate, cattle, and sugar. Concerned about the effects of what they believed were careless monetary and fiscal policies, as well as the risks posed by the newly formed oil cartel (OPEC), they sought to hedge their businesses and assets. Since it was still illegal for individual investors to own gold, they chose physical silver.

The Hunts began buying silver in 1973, when the price per ounce was $1.50. Over the next six years, the Hunts increased their holdings to more than 200 million ounces, valued at more than $4.5 billion.

Silver Rule 7

In late 1979, their massive holdings and the impact they were having on silver prices prompted action by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the CME. Both entities sought to restrict their purchases and compel the liquidation of the brothers’ silver assets. In January 1980, the CME enacted Silver Rule 7, which imposed stringent restrictions on the purchase of silver futures on margin. This rule significantly increased the amount of collateral required of traders, thereby curbing leveraged speculative buying. It also included restrictions on the number of contracts one could hold and effectively halted new margin buying.

These changes meant that if a trader wanted to continue buying, they would have needed to put up nearly 100% cash for their positions instead of borrowing on margin — effectively eliminating leverage.

Silver nearly hit $50 per ounce in mid-January 1980 and then, due to the abrupt changes in margin requirements, fell to $10 per ounce by the end of March. At that point, margin calls on futures contracts and borrowings against existing silver holdings depleted the Hunts’ cash, forcing them to liquidate their holding to cover margin debts.

Leverage Builds and Leverage Kills

The Hunts initially took physical delivery of silver and did not use leverage. Over time, though, they understood the power of using their silver as collateral to buy more. Buying silver futures on margin enabled them to positively influence the price at a fraction of the cost. Such leverage allowed them to multiply their purchasing power and drive silver prices higher. The only requirement for the Hunts scheme was to maintain sufficient cash to adequately fund their futures margin account.

In addition to the CFTC and CME efforts, the Federal Reserve also played a role in breaking the Hunt brothers. Fed Chairman Paul Volcker sharply raised interest rates in January 1980, from 11.75% to 20.0%, making margin borrowing for the Hunts and other speculators much more expensive. One week after the Hunts ceased market activity, Volcker began lowering interest rates.

Leverage allowed the Hunts to distort the price of silver, but it also killed their legendary squeeze. They incurred over $1.1 billion in losses on the trade. They also lost civil lawsuit claims, which, in part, led them to declare bankruptcy.

The Tiffany advertisement below describes the economic effect the Hunts had on various industries. 

Current Silver Situation

Today, there are many sound, fundamental reasons for the recent rise in silver prices, as there were in the 1970s and in the post-financial-crisis years. For example:

Monetary & Fiscal Tailwinds: Like in the post-Financial Crisis era, the post-pandemic environment has certainly provided those with a reason to hedge against monetary tomfoolery with precious metals. The monetary debasement narrative certainly adds to the conversation. Moreover, with QE resuming and a few signs that DOGE hasn’t reduced fiscal spending, there does not appear to be an end in sight to the monetary and fiscal problems we face. 

Supply Deficit: Silver has been in a multi-year supply deficit, with demand exceeding newly mined supply and silver from recycling.

Surging Industrial Demand: Silver is essential for solar panels, electric vehicles, power electronics, semiconductors, and data-center infrastructure. Given the rapid growth in these sectors globally, silver demand is increasing.

Limited Supply: Roughly 70% of silver production is a by-product of mining for other metals. This means that higher silver prices alone do not incentivize new supply, thereby slowing the market’s ability to rebalance. Moreover, reserve depletion, declining ore grades, mine closures, and underinvestment in exploration and development constrain supply.

Valuations

Silver investors often use ratios to assess silver value. Among the most widely used are the silver-to-gold and silver-to-oil ratios. The chart below shows both ratios. The silver-to-oil ratio (green) is at record highs going back to at least 1990. As the graph shows, there have been numerous spikes in the past. Assuming this too is a spike, either oil prices are ready to ramp higher, or silver is due for a mighty correction.

The silver-to-gold ratio remains cheap despite silver’s recent outperformance versus gold. If the ratio were to return to its late-2011 highs, silver prices would have to rise significantly more than gold prices. While a continued increase in the ratio is undoubtedly possible, note that the trend has been downward for most of the 55 years shown.

When Will The CME Raid The Party?

The problem with traditional valuation and fundamental analysis, as discussed above, is the precedent the CME has set when the price of silver goes parabolic. Accordingly, we think it’s only a matter of price before the CME and/or governmental action pulls the rug out from silver speculators.

If you disagree, consider that on December 12th, the CME raised silver margins by 10%, as shown below. In 2011, the first margin increase also had no impact. It was the subsequent actions that were the problem.

Silver investors should carefully read the sections above detailing the post-financial-crisis period and the Hunt Brothers boom-bust cycles. Changes in margin requirements and rules triggered mass liquidations of silver, resulting in an abrupt reversal of fortunes. Such actions are unpredictable and happen extremely fast.

Summary

At its core, this article provides yet another lesson on the high price that leverage can inflict on investors. When the market for an asset becomes highly leveraged, the risks increase markedly. We are reasonably confident that this bullish charge in silver will end poorly, as it has in the other two instances. What we don’t know is when the shift will occur. Complicating the timing is that the CME could, on any day, terminate the leverage.

Fool me once, shame on you. Twice, then shame on me. But fool me three times….

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/23/2025 - 11:40

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales

A brief excerpt:

After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in November.

There were several key stories for November:

• Sales NSA are down 0.5% YoY through November, and sales last year were the lowest since 1995!

• Sales SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) have bounced around 4 million for the last 3 years.

• Months-of-supply is above pre-pandemic levels.

• The median price is up 1.2% YoY, and with the increases in inventory, some regional areas will see further price declines - and we might see national price declines sometime in 2026.

The median price is up 1.2% YoY, and with the increases in inventory, some regional areas will see further price declines - and we might see national price declines sometime in 2026.

Sales averaged close to 5.42 million SAAR for the month of November in the 2017-2019 period. So, sales are about 24% below pre-pandemic levels.
...
In November, sales in these markets were down 6.5% YoY. Last month, in October, these same markets were up 2.3% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). The NAR reported sales were down 7.0% YoY in November, very close to this market sample.

Important: There was one fewer working days in November 2025 (18) as in November 2024 (19). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data was more than the change in NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
...
More local data coming in January for activity in December!

There is much more in the article.

Christmas Day Gasoline Prices Set To Fall To COVID-Era Levels

Authored by Alex Kimani via OilPrice.com,

U.S. gasoline prices are set to fall to the lowest level since 2020, thanks to increasing supplies, despite some ongoing refinery maintenance, GasBuddy has predicted.

GasBuddy has predicted that U.S. motorists will pay an average of $2.79 per gallon on Christmas Day, down from $2.95 per gallon a year ago.

That will mark the cheapest gas since prices averaged $2.26 per gallon in the Christmas of 2020.

“Christmas is often when gas prices settle near the lowest levels of the year, and 2025 is no exception,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.

“Refinery maintenance has wrapped up, supplies are rising, and winter demand is much lower than in summer — all of which help keep a lid on prices.

Provided there are no surprises; holiday travelers should see pump prices that come in a bit lower than last Christmas.

We’re also seeing encouraging early trends as we prepare to release our 2026 Fuel Outlook in January, with signs that lower prices could continue into next year,” he added.

The national average price of gasoline has continued on a downward trend after dropping below $3 a gallon two weeks ago, sinking to their lowest level since 2021.

The average U.S. gas price is now $2.905 per gallon, down from $3.030 a year ago.

However, prices vary widely by state, with motorists in Oklahoma paying $2.339 per gallon compared to $4.343 in California.

Diesel prices have seen an even steeper decline, with the national average price of diesel currently standing at $3.642 per gallon, down from $3.765 a month ago.

Crude oil prices are currently falling due to a significant global oversupply, weaker-than-expected demand growth, and easing of geopolitical risk premiums.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/23/2025 - 11:00

US Launches Tariff Action Over Chinese "Unreasonable" Pursuit Of Chip Industry Dominance

It appears that the unstable trade truce between the US and China is over.  

In what the SCMP calls a "decisive trade move against China’s semiconductor industry" the US Trade Representative Office said it had determined that Beijing’s drive for dominance in the sector is “unreasonable and discriminatory” and poses a direct threat to US commerce.

In a formal Notice of Action filed with the Federal Register, the agency said the US will slap tariffs on Chinese semiconductor imports over Beijing's "unreasonable" pursuit of chip industry dominance, but would delay the action until June 2027, at which point the rate will be raised to a higher level that will be announced 30 days before the deadline.

The filing follows a year-long investigation into China's chip imports into the United States, launched by the Biden administration on December 23, 2024, which concluded that China has employed “sweeping non-market policies” to capture global market share and displace foreign competitors.

The USTR said China’s industrial plans target “every major segment of the semiconductor supply chain,” including fabrication, design, assembly, testing and packaging.

“China’s pursuit of its dominance goals has severely disadvantaged US companies, workers, and the US economy generally,” the notice said, citing lost sales, reduced competition, and the creation of dangerous economic dependencies.

"China’s targeting of the semiconductor industry for dominance is unreasonable and burdens or restricts U.S. commerce and thus is actionable," the U.S. Trade Representative concluded. 

According to Reuters, the move represents the latest effort by President Donald Trump to dial down tensions with Beijing, faced with Chinese export curbs on the rare earth metals that global tech companies rely on and which China controls. We disagree, and view the decision - which finds that China is aggressively abusing free markets - will be one which forces Beijing to retaliate in tit-for-tat fashion. 

The chip industry is awaiting the outcome of another investigation into chip imports that could hit Chinese goods and result in tariffs on a vast array of technology, but U.S. officials are privately saying that they might not levy them anytime soon, Reuters reported

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/23/2025 - 10:40

The Bizarro-World Of The Forever Maskers

Authored by 'sallust' via DailySceptic.org,

The Telegraph has a story about the ‘Zero Covid’ zealots refusing to re-enter society.

Not only that, but these forever maskers want everyone else masked up in perpetuity too. It’s a remarkable instance of the emergence of a new form of cult based on a surreal new ritual. And just for good measure, it seems that those leaning Left are most likely to be on board:

The claims of links to Covid circulating online amid the deadly chaos were not always proved beyond doubt, but in this climate of fear and confusion, a determined ‘Zero Covid’ community emerged. Co-opting a phrase that was originally an official public health policy, the ‘Zero Coviders’ believed they were watching a massacre in real time, and the maskless – especially those who were unvaccinated – were to blame. As governments relaxed the restrictions, they felt they needed to step up.

“I was like, ‘Okay, this is not right. This is f—–,'” says [Alyson] Hardwick, a second-year university student who does not have any underlying health conditions. The last time she ate indoors at a restaurant was in October 2022 for her 31st birthday. “I felt sketched out [uneasy],” she recalls. “I was leaving every place I was going inside without a mask, wondering, ‘Did I get it?’”

Hardwick began wearing a respirator mask – specialised, disposable facepieces called N95s or N99s which offer more comprehensive protection than a surgical mask – and spending most of her time alone.

She’s ostracised herself from other people and posts thousands of clips online and argues that it’s everyone else, not her, who is living in fear. “Denial is a fear response,” she insists.

Hardwick’s stance exemplifies the increasingly fraught Zero Covid movement – a citizen-led campaign across the Western world to keep the air clean. She is just one of thousands of geographically disparate people, many of whom are not immunocompromised, who are still living in their own self-imposed lockdowns, fearful of becoming one of the millions to suffer with serious long Covid symptoms, or anxious about transmitting the virus to someone less fortunate. Zero Covid has adherents across North America and Europe, including some in the UK, but followers from the US and Canada are the most visible online.

The charged movement to end ‘pandemic denialism’ has some high-profile advocates, including Left-wing US journalist Taylor Lorenz. “If ur [sic] not masking ur absolutely facilitating eugenics,” Lorenz posted to her 350,000 followers on X on December 6th.

“Refusing to mask during an ongoing pandemic is absolutely violent and it’s undeniably participating in social murder,” she said in another recent post, as well as calling out Leftist “super spreader” events. “You are actively *killing* and maiming people around you by intentionally spreading airborne disease during an active pandemic.” (Separately, she pilloried non-maskers for “raw-dogging the air and spewing ur disease laden breath all over ur elderly neighbours”.)

By 2022, the pandemic and the panicked measures were retreating into the past:

But the cautious, despite getting vaccinated and then boosted, couldn’t move on. Online communities became lifelines as in-person social circles frayed. Campaigners pushed ‘clean air’ as the next public-health frontier, and offered seatbelt analogies for masking: mildly inconvenient, obviously protective.

Masking was increasingly framed as an act of love, and it was overwhelmingly Left-wing groups which encouraged – even mandated – their continued use. Stevie Nicks of Fleetwood Mac encouraged continued mask wearing. “I f—— hate the masks, but I wear them,” she said. “People give you dirty looks. I dare anybody to give me a dirty look. I would just say, ‘Hey, you know what? I’m Stevie Nicks.'”

That would presumably be the same Stevie Nicks who reportedly blew a hole through her nose from snorting cocaine. By 2023 mask use was largely discredited, but the Telegraph quotes a Mayo Clinic source:

“People who rebuilt their entire lives and recast their identities around reducing the risk of catching Covid to zero couldn’t deal with this,” one former ardent Zero Covider recalls, speaking to me on condition of anonymity.

“The movement devolved into a massive online circle-jerk where members blindly validate each other on taking disproportionate precautions.

One ardent proponent of masking says that’s the way he’ll spend the rest of his life:

“I don’t just, like, go out the way I used to,” says Evan Sachs, who is in his early 30s and lives in New York with his three cats. He always wears a mask outdoors.

“Sometimes it’s a bummer.” Not because masking is keeping him from living his life, he adds, “but because other people [selfishly] aren’t doing the ‘wearing your pants’ levels of easy things” to keep everyone safe. He runs a ‘bloc’ in the Washington Heights area of New York which distributes personal protective equipment (PPE) to less well-off communities. “I do not have Long Covid, thank goodness,” Sachs adds. “I am very, very lucky on that front.”

He doesn’t want to get it either. “I honestly think I would [mask forever],” he says.’

An Austrian doctor called Spela Salomon has no time for non-maskers:

Outside work, she does not spend time with people who do not take equal precautions. “I just don’t feel like I get anything out of hanging around the maskless masses,” she says. “It’s sad and isolating.” In an article published by the World Health Network earlier this year, Salomon predicted that a rising toll of Covid complications would lead to a societal shift in which air quality is recognised as an essential public health priority like potable water. “It is those who persist in denial who are truly living in fear,” she wrote, echoing Hardwick’s sentiment in her social media video.

It appears that the forever maskers have become so dedicated to the cause that they are even fetishizing masks:

US college student Bela waxes lyrical about her powered air-purifying respirator, certified by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health.

“It blows air out so that no outside air can get in through the edges from a poor fit or seal,” she told campaign group MaskTogetherAmerica.

Meanwhile, Alyson Hardwick is increasingly focused on her “new passion for Covid”:

Getting a booster jab at least every six months is, for her, a necessary response to what she calls a “mass disability event in slow motion” that has completely transformed her life.

“I’m rarely ever sharing air with people,” she says. If she does meet up with anyone, it will be other Covid-safe people, outdoors. “I feel safe around them, because they’re also masking everywhere.”

Worth reading in full if only to explore the infinite capacity of human beings to turn any cause into a cult, however bizarre the rituals and customs devised to pursue their beliefs.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/23/2025 - 10:20

US Industrial Production Rises At Strongest Annual Rate Since Apr 2022

Following the much-stronger-than-expected GDP print, US Industrial Production also surprised to the upside, rising 0.2% MoM in November and pulling the YoY change up to 2.52% - the strongest annual growth since April 2022...

Source: Bloomberg

US Manufacturing output was unchanged in November, but better than the 0.4% MoM decline in October, as Motor Vehicles & Parts fell 5.1% MoM while Utilities jumped 2.6% MoM.

Capacity Utilization limped lower to 75.9% (from an upwardly revised 76.0%), but remains off the Nov 2024 lows...

Source: Bloomberg

So a mixed bag with output up strongly as capacity utilization slides...

Source: Bloomberg

... does that signal the productivity boost everyone has been waiting for?

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/23/2025 - 09:31

Education Department Announces Safety Review Of Brown University After Deadly Campus Shooting

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Department of Education on Monday announced it would conduct a review of Brown University to uncover potential safety violations after a campus shooting left two students dead and nine others wounded, and to determine if the Ivy League institution complied with federal laws requiring ample campus security measures to receive student aid funding.

The review, led by the department’s Office of Federal Student Aid, will assess whether the Ivy League institution met requirements under the Jeanne Clery Disclosure of Campus Security Policy and Campus Crime Statistics Act, also known as the Clery Act. The law mandates that colleges receiving federal student aid maintain robust security measures, including timely warnings and accurate crime reporting.

Public reports in the hours after the incident suggested Brown’s surveillance and security systems fell short, allowing the suspect to escape while the university struggled to provide useful details about the shooter. Students and staff also reported delays in emergency notifications, sparking worries about the alert system’s effectiveness. If confirmed, these issues could represent major breaches of federal obligations.

“After two students were horrifically murdered at Brown University when a shooter opened fire in a campus building, the Department is initiating a review of Brown to determine if it has upheld its obligation under the law to vigilantly maintain campus security,” Secretary of Education Linda McMahon said in a statement.

“Students deserve to feel safe at school, and every university across this nation must protect their students and be equipped with adequate resources to aid law enforcement. The Trump Administration will fight to ensure that recipients of federal funding are vigorously protecting students’ safety and following security procedures as required under federal law.”

As part of the probe, the department has asked Brown to submit documents by Jan. 30, including annual security reports for 2024 and 2025, audit trails of crimes and arrests from 2021 to 2024, dispatch logs, daily crime logs, lists of timely warnings and emergency notifications from 2021 to 2025, and policies on alerts, crime logs, and active shooter protocols. The request also includes any assessments of campus safety practices since 2020.

The shooting, which occurred Dec. 13, drew national attention, with the FBI offering a $50,000 reward for information leading to the arrest and conviction of a suspect.

Killed in the shooting were Mukhammad Aziz Umurzokov, an 18-year-old from Virginia who aspired to become a neurosurgeon, and 19-year-old Ella Cook, vice president of the College Republicans at Brown and a native of Mountain Brook, Alabama.

The suspect, Claudio Neves Valente, a 48-year-old Portuguese national and former Brown student, was found dead in a storage unit in Salem, New Hampshire, days later. An autopsy determined he died by suicide with a gun two days before his body was found.

The department’s statement did not clarify a timeline, but noted the process would assess compliance in depth, along with safety requirements.

The university did not return a request for comment by publication time.

Under the Trump administration, the Department of Education has investigated institutions like the University of Pennsylvania for inaccurate foreign funding disclosures and others for allegedly excluding U.S.-born students from scholarships. Continuing disagreements revolve around federal funding linked to diversity, equity, and inclusion policies, as well as anti-Semitism concerns.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/23/2025 - 09:20

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

This release includes preliminary estimates for industrial production (IP) and capacity utilization for both October and November as well as revised estimates for May through September. IP rose 0.2 percent in November after ticking down 0.1 percent in October. On average, IP rose 0.1 percent per month across October and November, the same as the rate of increase in September and a somewhat slower average pace than the past 12 months. Manufacturing output was flat in November after dropping 0.4 percent in October. There were swings in both mining and utilities output over October and November, though, on net, both sectors posted gains. At 101.8 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in November was 2.5 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization was 76.0 percent in November, a rate that is 3.5 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and close to the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Capacity utilization at 76.0% is 3.5% below the average from 1972 to 2023.  This was close to consensus expectations.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production increased to 101.8. This is at the pre-pandemic level.

Industrial production was close to consensus expectations.

Q3 GDP Unexpectedly Surges To 2 Year High On Soaring Health Insurance Spending

By now, Q3 GDP - which should have been reported almost two months ago - is ancient history but it still matters in a world where the Fed's every sneeze is overanalyzed. Which is why the report by the Bureau of Economic Analysis that in Q3 US GDP surged by 4.3%, up from an already hot 3.8% in Q2 and driven by a spike in consumer spending, will surely raise some eyebrows (for those wondering, this report was originally supposed to hit on Oct 30, and the second estimate was scheduled for Nov 26; none of that happened due to the govt shutdown). This was the highest annualized quarterly GDP print since Q3 2023. 

The number was higher than all but one economist forecasts, and was a 3-sigma beat to the median consensus of 3.3%

According to the BEA, the increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. 

Compared to the second quarter, the acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter reflected a smaller decrease in investment, an acceleration in consumer spending, and upturns in exports and government spending. Imports decreased less in the third quarter.

Taking a closer look at the components, this is how the 4.34% increase in bottom line GDP happened:

• Personal Consumption rose by a whopping 2.39%, up from 1.68% in Q2
• Fixed Investment moderated, rising by 0.19%, vs 0.77% in Q2. Once again, this is mostly data centers
• Change in private inventories declined by 0.22%, a moderation from the -3.44% drop in Q2, and to be expected as the trade aberration from the trade war moderate 
• Net trade (exports less imports) also normalized and after a surge of 4.83%, the increase was a more modest 1.59%, driven by positive contributions from both exports (0.67%) and imports (0.92%).
• Finally, government contributed 0.39% to Q3 GDP after subtracting from US growth in each of the previous two quarters of 2024.

And visually:

While the surge in personal consumption would be a red flag for the Fed, as it indicates the US consumer is much stronger than expected, the reality is that - as shown below - the bulk of the increase was the result of surge in healthcare spending, which increased at a whopping 0.76% adjusted annual rate. Which means that personal spending was not driven by discretionary splurging but by a need to meet much higher health insurance costs!

Linked to this surge in health insurance, the GDP price index for Q3 jumped 3.8%, up from 2.1% in Q2 and a big beat to the 2.7% estimate. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.8%, compared with an increase of 2.1%. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.9 percent, in line with estimates, and higher than the increase of 2.6 percent in Q2.

Overall, this was a stronger than expected print however for all the wrong reasons. As to whether it will change the Fed's thinking, we very much doubt it if the US labor market continues deteriorating as it has been for much of 2025.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/23/2025 - 09:09

The post Donald Trump Wants Us to Pay More for Electricity Because He Is Angry at Windmills appeared first on CEPR.

DOGE Delivers Massive $214 Billion In Taxpayer Savings... So Far

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

In a stunning victory against bloated bureaucracy, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), originally spearheaded by Elon Musk, has slashed an eye-popping $214 billion from federal spending in less than a year.

Official figures from DOGE’s own tally reveal a relentless assault on waste, including terminations of thousands of contracts, grants, and leases that were draining resources without delivering value.

From bloated defense deals to questionable health programs, the cuts are stacking up, proving that an America First approach can rein in the deep state’s excesses.

? A WIN! DOGE just hit $214,000,000,000.00 in taxpayer savings in only 11 months!

That's $1,329 for every taxpaying American.

Elon and team delivering America a win! !pic.twitter.com/s33BjKLKJY

— Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) December 22, 2025

The milestone comes amid widespread praise for Musk’s no-nonsense tactics, even as legacy media nitpicks the details. According to DOGE’s breakdown, contract cancellations alone account for around $61 billion, targeting over 13,000 agreements like a $3.9 billion aircraft maintenance boondoggle and multi-billion-dollar health service pacts that ballooned under prior administrations.

Grants saw $49 billion axed, hitting everything from foreign aid handouts to domestic epidemiology programs that critics argue fueled unnecessary spending.

Leases weren’t spared either, with $113 million clawed back from underused federal spaces across the country—think vacant offices in California and North Carolina that taxpayers were footing the bill for.

Beyond that, DOGE claims broader impacts through asset sales, fraud crackdowns, interest reductions, and workforce streamlining, pushing the total to that landmark $214 billion.

Dividing the savings by roughly 161 million U.S. taxpayers gives a saving of $1,329 for every taxpaying American, a direct hit against the endless tax hikes peddled by big-government advocates.

This triumph throws a harsh spotlight on the left’s double standards. As X user MAZE notes: “Democrats used to preach about the need to eliminate waste, fraud, and abuse from the system. Now they enable it and cover it up.”

Democrats used to preach about the need to eliminate waste, fraud, and abuse from the system.

Now they enable it and cover it up. pic.twitter.com/ocNF1DgPxw

— MAZE (@mazemoore) December 22, 2025

It’s a damning indictment—while DOGE was busy slashing redundancies, Democrats in Congress and their media allies dragged their feet, defending the very pork-barrel projects that Musk’s team eviscerated.

Recent reports confirm the context: DOGE’s efforts, though now wound down after achieving key goals, targeted sacred cows like USAID’s $1.75 billion grant to the GAVI Foundation and the Department of Energy’s half-billion-dollar handouts for dubious “decarbonization” schemes. These weren’t just cuts—they were a rejection of globalist agendas that prioritize foreign interests over American workers.

The raw impact is undeniable. Musk himself reflected that DOGE was “somewhat successful,” but the $214 billion speaks volumes, far exceeding initial lowered projections and delivering on President Trump’s promise to drain the swamp.

The ripple effects are already showing. Positive market indicators, as highlighted in recent Fox Business segments, point to a “bountiful” 2026 fueled by these efficiencies. Stock futures are climbing, cryptos are steady, and investor confidence is rebounding.

This isn’t about austerity—it’s about smart governance. By dismantling the layers of fraud and inefficiency that Democrats once railed against but now protect, DOGE has handed everyday Americans a massive return on their tax dollars.

This isn’t just numbers on a page—it’s real relief for every taxpaying American fed up with Washington’s endless money pit.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/23/2025 - 08:51