US Gasoline Demand Fell Further Amid Long-Term Structural Shift: Plunging Per-Capita Consumption

Authored by Wolf Richter via Wolf Street,

Gasoline consumption in the US, in terms of product supplied to gas stations, declined by about 1% in 2025, to 8.91 million barrels per day, according to EIA data, below where consumption had first been in 2003, even though the US population increased by 52 million people, or by 18%, over the same period.

Compared to the peak in 2018, gasoline consumption in 2025 fell by 4.5%. Compared to the prior peak in 2007, gasoline consumption is down 4.1%.

Gasoline consumption is increased by miles driven – which inched up to a record – and is slowed by the improving efficiency of gasoline-powered vehicles and the growing share of EVs.

The effects of the two Oil Shocks in the 1970s on gasoline consumption was dramatic. High gasoline prices and a recession led to fewer miles driven, but it also unleashed efforts by US automakers to make and sell smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles. And the small fuel-efficient Japanese models became immensely popular. This wave of smaller and more fuel-efficient vehicles held down gasoline consumption, and it didn’t surpass its 1978 high until 1993, though the population grew by 18% over those 16 years.

Per-capita gasoline consumption fell to 32.8 gallons per month in 2025, the lowest since 1967, except for the Covid year 2020, as a result of declining overall gasoline consumption amid a growing population.

This dynamic illustrates the structural decline in demand for gasoline.

Miles driven edged up 0.9% in 2025, to a record of 3,324 billion miles, according to data from the Department of Transportation (includes miles driven by cars, light trucks, buses, motorcycles, delivery vans, and commercial trucks). But that’s only 9.7% higher than at the prior peak in 2007.

That gasoline consumption declines even as miles driven increases attests to the impact of more fuel-efficient ICE vehicles and more EVs in the vehicle mix.

But people drive a little less: Miles driven per person residing in the US, at 9,710 miles in 2025, was 3.1% below the peak in 2004.

And average fuel economy keeps improving: that has been a big part of the long-term structural demand issue for gasoline.

Over the past 25 years, the average fuel economy of all passenger vehicles sold in the US rose by 43%, to a record of 28.1 “real world” MPG for the 2025 model year, according to preliminary data from the EPA last month.

Note the spike in average fuel economy coming out of the Oil Shocks, as compact Japanese vehicles made huge inroads, and as US automakers began offering smaller vehicles with better mileage.

Exports of gasoline have become an outlet for refiners.

Crude oil production in the US has surged by 172% since 2008, to a record 13.6 million barrels per day (MMb/d) in 2025, according to EIA data. Over the years, exports of crude oil and petroleum products (diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, petroleum coke, and many others) have soared, and imports have fallen. In 2020, the US became a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products, exporting more than importing. In 2025, net exports of crude oil and petroleum products rose to a record 2.8 MMb/d (detailed analysis and charts here).

Gasoline exports have become a big profitable trade for US refiners, and an outlet to replace falling demand at home. Many refiners import crude oil and export value-added products, such as gasoline, including refineries in California which face steeply dropping gasoline demand amid the rapidly growing prevalence of EVs and hybrids in the state.

For example, the US had a trade surplus of 590,000 barrels per day in crude oil and petroleum products with Mexico in 2025, importing 500,000 barrels a day of crude oil and exporting 1.1 MMb/d in value-added petroleum products, largely diesel and gasoline.

Gasoline exports started soaring in 2008, surpassed 700,000 barrels per day for the first time in 2017, hit 879,000 barrels per day in 2018, and have stayed in that range since then. In 2025, gasoline exports edged up to 804,000 barrels per day.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 19:15

Dems To Keep Blocking DHS Funds Despite Noem Firing

On Thursday, President Donald Trump fired Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and tapped Sen. Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma as her replacement, marking the first administration shake-up of Trump’s second term. Democrats had been demanding her ouster for months, but they’ve made it quite clear that the move changed nothing in their eyes, and the standoff over DHS funding continues.

The DHS partial shutdown - now stretching into its third week - was already the product of Democratic demands for sweeping restrictions on Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection. Those demands didn't soften with the personnel change. They hardened. 

"A change in personnel is not sufficient," House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told reporters. "We need a change in policy." 

Jeffries added, “It's not like Kristi Noem was involved in negotiating anything. She was a corrupt lackey. So we're dealing with the White House and we're going to continue to deal with the White House at this point."

Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer made it clear he's not interested in administrative adjustments or good-faith assurances. He wants legislation that fundamentally changes how immigration law is enforced. "We have to change them by legislation because I don't trust any one person being in charge of this agency as long as Trump is president, given the policies he's espoused, given how ICE has been structured," Schumer insisted. And then, with the rhetorical flourish of a man who has already made up his mind: "The rot is deep."

Sen. Christopher S. Murphy of Connecticut, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Homeland Security Appropriations Subcommittee, was equally unmoved. "Changing the name plate on the door doesn't change the fact that they are committed to using DHS to terrorize communities and migrants in this country," Murphy said.

Despite Democrats being the ones holding up funding, Schumer then blamed Republicans for the ongoing impasse. "They've been stonewalling us on the most important issues, and those have to change, and they have to change them," he told reporters.

However, Senate Majority Leader John Thune disputes Schumer’s characterization. "Senate Democrats are not engaging," he said. "And furthermore, I would say, beyond not engaging, they are just flat rejecting any chance to sit down and actually talk about it. And that seems to be coming from the top." Thune then made his second attempt in as many months to bring a House-passed DHS funding bill to the Senate floor, fully anticipating Democrats would block it again. They did. The procedural vote came in at 51-45 — nine short of the 60 needed to advance.

The impasse began in January, when anti-ICE protestors assaulted federal agents in Minnesota, resulting in their deaths. Renee Good attempted to run over an ICE agent with her vehicle, prompting the agent to fatally shoot her. Weeks later, Alex Pretti assaulted Border Patrol agents while armed with a loaded gun and was shot in the process of attacking the agents.

Democrats used the incident to push for a package loaded with ridiculous restrictions that would have put agents at risk and severely hampered their ability to enforce the law. Among other provisions, their requested rules included banning agents from wearing masks, requiring judicial warrants for entry onto private property, mandating identification and body cameras, and prohibiting enforcement near schools, churches, hospitals, and polling places. 

But, Republicans pointed out that unmasking agents exposes them to doxing and harassment, and that a blanket warrant requirement would drown the courts — effectively neutering the administration's immigration agenda. 

One area of agreement was on body cameras. Yet, Democrats later backtracked on that demand. 

Meanwhile, the shutdown's collateral damage is becoming harder to ignore. ICE and CBP have kept their lights on, covered by the $75 billion Congress funneled to immigration enforcement through last summer's budget reconciliation law. But TSA, FEMA, the Coast Guard, and the Secret Service have no such backstop and are beginning to feel the financial squeeze. 

Mullin is set to take over on March 31, pending Senate confirmation. Whether he can unlock a deal to end the standoff remains entirely unclear, but so far it looks unlikely. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 18:50

"We Have An Emergency": Newsom's Climate Obsession Could Wreak Havoc California's Oil Industry

The oil-and-gas industry is sounding the alarm over a tightening of California's cap-and-invest program, warning that stricter emissions caps could drive up gasoline prices and jeopardize the viability of in-state refining.

The California Air Resources Board is advancing amendments to the cap-and-invest framework, a market-based mechanism requiring major emitters to purchase allowances for greenhouse-gas emissions, that would significantly reduce the supply of available credits and accelerate reduction targets through 2030, according to the New York Post. The program, extended through 2045 last year, generates revenue through quarterly auctions that has helped fund state priorities, including the beleaguered high-speed rail initiative.

Andy Walz, president of Chevron's downstream, midstream and chemicals division, told KCRA in an interview this week that the forthcoming board vote on the changes could impose billions in additional costs on fuel producers.

“If they add this burden … it’s not whether refineries will close, it’s when,” the executive said.

Walz pointed to heightened geopolitical risks, including the spiraling U.S.-Iran war, as a reason to pump the brakes on reductions in domestic production capacity.

“That makes no sense when you look at global tensions right now,” Walz said.

Walz described the situation as an “emergency” for the state and highlighted potential national-security implications, noting California hosts 32 U.S. military bases that depend on reliable local fuel supply.

“It’s important to national security to have the fuel those facilities need,” he said. “This isn’t just a California issue.”

A study by Capitol Matrix Consulting estimates the proposal could saddle California refineries with $5.5 billion to $9 billion in added costs over the next decade, a burden that could erase much or all of their projected earnings in some cases.

Projections from industry sources, including Chevron, indicate the amendments could add more than $1 a gallon to gasoline prices by 2030, with the company specifically estimating an increase of $1.21 per gallon if allowance prices reach projected ceilings around $135. California pump prices already average about $1.54 above the national level, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Yet, Newsom has shown little concern about higher costs at the pump for California voters. Instead, the potential 2028 Democrat presidential contender has framed the state's climate policies largely in opposition to President Donald Trump.

“We’re doubling down on our best tool to combat Trump’s assaults on clean air — Cap-and-Invest — by making polluters pay for projects that support our most impacted communities,” Newsom said in September.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 18:00

Bad Faith Noncompliance: Virginia Schools Flout Supreme Court And Trump With DEI 'Rebrand'

Authored by Teresa R. Manning via American Greatness,

Just over a year ago, President Trump issued two executive orders banning destructive diversity ideology (a.k.a. “DEI” or “diversity, equity, and inclusion”) from the federal government and its contractors, including colleges and universities. The EOs sought to restore merit as the basis of hiring, advancement, and college admissions.

Both EOs reinforced prior actions by the president as well as by the Supreme Court: In his first term, Trump signed EO 13950, Combatting Race and Sex Stereotypes, which banned divisive concepts based on race and ethnicity, a measure duplicated in many states; and in June of 2023, the Supreme Court decided Students for Fair Admission v. Harvard (“SFFA”), which found that diversity rationales for racial preferences in admissions were themselves discriminatory and therefore unlawful.

Notwithstanding these major legal developments against DEI, colleges and universities, especially in Virginia, are continuing business as usual to promote it, albeit under different names, a move known as rebranding. “To avoid scrutiny,” said one official at the University of Virginia, diversity offices are now called offices for “community and belonging,” while “queer brunch” is now marketed as “cozy brunch.” At George Mason University, the DEI office is now called the Office for Access, Compliance, and Community—same staff, same stuff. They do this even though Trump’s EO explicitly banned rebranding, stating such programs are illegal “under whatever name they appear.”

Obviously, bad actor schools are engaged in bad faith noncompliance.

In this 250th anniversary year of America’s founding, we should remember that the word “diversity“ is absent from our foundational documents: it does not appear in either the Declaration of Independence or in our Constitution.

How, then, did “diversity” become so ubiquitous—in education, government, and corporate America—and what does it really mean?

“Diversity” is in fact a top-down, divide-and-conquer strategy pitting Americans against each other based on race, ethnicity, and sex (and now including “gender” and gender ideology). It distracts from—and detracts from—talent and excellence, actually encouraging racial discord as everyone must have skin color or race in mind, rather than achievement or moral character. Accordingly, it destroys nations. Only corrupt politicians, owned and controlled by anti-American handlers, could parrot the lie that “Diversity is our strength.”

Many date the debut of diversity ideology from the 1978 Supreme Court case, Regents of the University of California v. Bakke, where the medical school of the University of California at Davis had a special admissions program reserving 16 of its 100 open spots for minorities, often with lesser qualifications than white applicants, such as complainant Allan Bakke. Supreme Court Justice Lewis Powell announced in this opinion that “diversity” was a legitimate governmental interest. But he and the other justices rejected the medical school’s rigid quotas to get there—insisting, instead, that race should be one of many different criteria for admission even while stating that “racial and ethnic considerations are inherently suspect” under the Constitution.

These ambiguities guaranteed more fights about the role of race in college admissions and elsewhere.

In 2003, the Court made matters worse in Grutter v. Bollinger, where Justice Sandra Day O’Connor elevated “diversity” from a permissible state interest to a compelling one, finding that the University of Michigan law school’s racial preferences in admissions were lawful, provided they were tailored and individualized.

Historically, “compelling state interests” concerned public safety, national security, or the protection of minor children. With no history, tradition, or textual basis to do so, the Grutter Court not only shoved diversity onto this list but also put it above a citizen’s right to equal protection of the law guaranteed by the Constitution’s Fourteenth Amendment. For this reason, many called the decision illegitimate. In practice, this case was the official government stamp of approval for discrimination against Christian, heterosexual men of European descent, as they are the only demographic said not to contribute to diversity.

In short order, campus bureaucracies, federal programs, and corporate trainings trumpeted DEI—often barely defined. Now, however, documents show that employers such as Amazon benefit from “diversity,” but employees decidedly do not: a divided workforce helps prevent unions as well as other forms of protection for workers’ rights. Similarly, campus administrators with few real or marketable skills no doubt also benefit from DEI, while serious students decidedly do not: university bureaucrats in DEI “BS Jobs” are paid handsomely with unprecedented student loan amounts. Graduates get the debt; campus bureaucrats get the paychecks.

Thankfully, the high Court corrected itself in the 2023 Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard, a case where DEI was rejected and its rationales found to be incompatible with the equal protection of laws. Chief Justice John Roberts explained that DEI itself presumes that skin color or ethnic background results in a “characteristic viewpoint,” a form of racial stereotyping forbidden by civil rights guarantees. Diversity ideology is also incoherent and incapable of judicial review. (Transsexuals now add diversity? Perhaps pedophiles will too?) If race is a plus for some, he pointed out, it is necessarily a minus for others—which is to say, even individualized approaches result in illegal racial discrimination. Finding racial preferences in college admissions unlawful, Roberts went on to broaden the holding, saying, “Eliminating racial discrimination means eliminating all of it.”

It is in this context that President Trump’s January 2025 executive orders were issued. The administration is following up on the Supreme Court’s landmark SFFA decision, a case that took years for the courts to decide and which corrected the destructive Grutter opinion.

It is also the context in which colleges and universities are brazenly flouting the law.

The actions of Trump and the Supreme Court have prompted Offices for Civil Rights at both the Justice and Education Departments to launch investigations into a number of colleges and universities, including in Virginia; a federal appeals court recently upheld the administration’s actions. Resolution agreements have been reached in some instances. And that is all to the good.

But the record shows that schools do not operate in good faith. That means that agreements on paper must be enforced, checked, and double-checked to have real effect in practice.

Let’s hope that will also happen—with special attention paid to bad faith rebranding.

* * *

Teresa R. Manning is Policy Director at the National Association of Scholars, President of the Virginia Association of Scholars, and a former law professor at Virginia’s Scalia Law School, George Mason University. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 17:40

Mills: Trump Admin "Reveling In The Carnage" As Tehran Burns

Last night, Bret Weinstein joined ZeroHedge to moderate a debate on the Iran war featuring Curt Mills, executive director of The American Conservative (magazine founded by Pat Buchanan), and Max Abrahms, Northeastern University professor and terrorism expert.

The discussion went far and wide. From Chabad to whether the war has strengthened Iranian hardliners to the question of Israeli influence over U.S. policy to how this war affects Russia-Ukraine.

Below are some of the most notable exchanges for those who missed it:

Can Trump Wrangle Israel?

Abrahms argued that claims Israel dictates U.S. policy ignore numerous cases where Washington has acted against Israeli preferences. He pointed to the influence of Tom Barrack, Trump’s ambassador to Turkey who is “absolutely reviled by many Israelis,” and policies such as ending sanctions on Syria, inviting the new Syrian president to the White House, and cultivating close ties with Qatar, Pakistan, and Turkey’s Erdoğan. On Gaza, Abrahms said Donald Trump “told Netanyahu, you need to stop prosecuting this war against Hamas,” adding that even critics like Steve Bannon acknowledge Trump has been “telling [Israelis] what they can and cannot do.”

Abrahms also cited last June’s “12-day war” with Iran, saying Israel wanted to continue strikes but Trump intervened. “Israel had planes over Tehran and Trump said, ‘I don’t like this’... Literally in the skies over Tehran, the Israeli planes were sent home.”

Mills rejected the framing. “It’s an archetypal straw man.” Conceding that the administration has taken steps “certain people in Israel… don’t prefer,” Mills argued the larger objective remains unchanged: “The holy grail of the Israeli hardline and neoconservatives… has for a long time been an Iran war… and they just got it done.”

pic.twitter.com/6W8QWlFgEN

— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) March 6, 2026

Tucker And “The Jews”

Abrahms accused Tucker Carlson of blaming “the Jews” for the war, pointing to Carlson’s claim that Chabad-Lubavitch and Christian Evangelicals were at least partially behind the conflict, a theory outlined in his latest monologue. 

Both Mills and Weinstein rejected that accusation. “That’s a far cry from the Jews,” Weinstein said. “There is all the difference in the world between an organization to which some people belong and many do not and the Jews, which is a large lineage.”

pic.twitter.com/fN0EJzlbkR

— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) March 6, 2026

“Crystal Meth Rumsfeld”

Mills argued that the most serious consequence is diplomatic. “I think currently the biggest macro problem actually is that the U.S.’s diplomatic word is getting crushed.” In his view, the war will “harm Trump’s ability to make a deal with the Russians to end the war in Ukraine” and “permanently scar any future president’s maneuverability and diplomacy.”

Mills questioned whether the purported strategic gains are gains at all.

“If you think the Iranians are bad dudes, they just replaced the 90-year-old Khamenei with a 58-year-old Khamenei,” he said, adding that the conflict has “further entrenched their military and economic elite, the IRGC.” At home, it's also emboldened the worst factions, politically vindicating hardliners like Rubio, Graham, and Cotton who argue “you cannot deal with the United States… that the U.S. only responds to force.” 

Rumsfeld: "I can't tell you if the use of force in Iraq today would last five days or five weeks or five months, but it certainly isn't gonna last any longer than that."

Hegseth: " It may or may not take four weeks, two weeks, six weeks. It could move up, it could move back." pic.twitter.com/xSLEbGaniZ

— Home of the Brave (@OfTheBraveUSA) March 2, 2026

Mills also directed criticism at Pete Hegseth, comparing him to “crystal meth Rumsfeld.” The rhetoric about “lethality” and a “reign of terror… over Iranian skies” suggested officials were “reveling in the carnage.” 

Lastly, and possibly the worst blunder of all, the fatwa discouraging nuclear weapons came from Iran’s deceased supreme leader, and “it’s very possible they’re just going to chuck that now and lunge for a crude nuclear device.” 

pic.twitter.com/cW3KfX1Ajx

— ZeroHedge Debates (@zerohedgeDebate) March 6, 2026

Listen to the full debate below or on our Spotify and YouTube channels.

https://t.co/OMGDXCGANP

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 5, 2026

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 17:20

The Fog Of Oil

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via VonGreyerz.gold,

War, oil and gold are making headlines of late for overlapping and independent reasons. Below, we avoid the guesswork, finger-pointing or sensationalism attendant to current headlines concerning Iran and stick to a theme which offers some clarity, namely the interplay of oil and gold.

The Fundamentals Stay the Same

For years, of course, we have tracked the fundamental drivers which impact the gold price (from DXY debates, inflation signals, and de-dollarization headlines to COMEX outflows).

All of these complex signals and themes ultimately boil down to a simple realization: Gold rises as debt-trapped nations debase their currencies to monetize their increasingly unloved IOUs.

This is pure fundamentalist thinking, and it works. Gold’s direction is easy, because the fall of paper currencies is now obvious.

In short, real money (gold and silver) historically gets the last say over paper money (USD), paper metals (COMEX) and paper promises (USTs).

Or stated even more simply: Rock openly beats paper.

Gold, as a Tier-1 preservation asset, is thus not a trade to enter or exit; it’s a leading strategic reserve asset, FX protagonist and superior store of value to be held, not speculated. One saves in precious metals and spends in fiat.

Fundamentals such as these make a now dispositive case for the long-term holding of gold.

Oil Headlines, Gold Tailwinds

Notwithstanding such fundamentals of gold ownership and future direction, there are nevertheless additional reasons, and tailwinds, to gold ownership, including: Oil.

The interplay between oil and the dollar, oil and gold, and oil and war are themes we have addressed numerous times in prior articles and years.

This is because, having long ago understood just how much gold matters, we have not forgotten that oil matters too…

No Coincidences

As the U.S. now finds itself once again in a military conflict with a major oil producer like Iran (think back as well to Libya, Iraq, or Venezuela), do any of us really think oil is not a central character to this current global plot twist?

I, of course, am not here to pick winners or losers, identify good actors from bad actors, or make military or political predictions in a fog of war, politics, media pundits and armchair military strategists.

Such matters are for others to opine upon.

But as market participants, we can look less to FOX news or the latest bombing strikes and look objectively at those flows, signals and correlations which we can use to our advantage.

By this, I am referring specifically to the data on money flows and the rhyming (instructive) history of gold’s movements relative to oil shocks, oil wars and oil price patterns.

Why?

Again, because in a modern, energy-centric world, oil matters. It really matters.

Oil & War

Wars, for example, are not only fought over oil, they end over oil—at least for those who have the least of it.

One of Japan’s primary motives behind its surprise attack on Pearl Harbor, for example, was tied to protecting oil channels in the far east after a pre-December 7th America cut its critical oil imports.

And as for all the many reasons Germany lost that same war, much of it had to do with its oil reserves falling from 180,000 tons to 11,000 tons by 1945. Just ask Rommel’s tank commanders or any pilot flying for the Luftwaffe what oil meant to their plans…

Gold & Oil Supply Shocks

But not only does oil matter pre and post wars, its direct tie to gold pricing is equally confirmed by history, namely a history of oil supply shocks.

Many, for example, can remember OPEC’s 1973 oil embargo, which sent gold from $90 to $180 in 12 months. Six years later, during the 1979 revolution in Iran, the subsequent supply shock in oil took gold from $220 to $850 in a similar time frame.

Fast forward to the 1991 Gulf War, and gold rose by 10% in just weeks. Decades later, at the 2022 outbreak of war in the Ukraine, oil hit 130 and gold immediately broke a key, $2050 resistance line.

See any signals here? Any patterns?

In other words: Oil shocks send gold higher.

Current Headlines

What happens today or tomorrow in this latest conflict with Iran is beyond my crystal ball.

What we do know, however, is that 1/5 of the world’s oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, over which Iran can cause obvious problems on shipping – i.e. a “supply shock.”

This might explain why Lloyd’s of London cancelled its maritime insurance for this region, forcing the UK government to do the insuring itself.

An Honest Lighthouse

For gold investors who have always known gold’s longer-term price direction and larger, evolving and historical role as a monetary metal in a time of changing monetary order, the case for gold remains as obvious today as it was yesterday and will be tomorrow.

What we are now tracking as to gold’s behavior with oil headlines, markets and potential supply shocks simply adds greater dimension (and likely tail winds) to an asset already moving secularly forward on its own fundamental properties and merits.

This direction is entirely due to the embarrassing lack of merit for paper dollars and unloved sovereign IOUs, themes we’ve been addressing for years.

As we stand today in the fog of yet another war whose ripple effects and currents invite the usual and seemingly endless commentary and debate, there is some consolation in having at least one honest and golden lighthouse upon which can rely to navigate today’s noise and preserve our wealth into an uncertain tomorrow.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 16:20

Nearly 20,000 Americans Have Safely Returned Home From The Mid-East: State Dept

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Nearly 20,000 U.S. citizens have returned safely from the Middle East since Feb. 28, when the Iran conflict broke out, Dylan Johnson, assistant secretary at the Bureau of Global Public Affairs, said in a March 5 statement.

Smoke rises from a reported Iranian strike in the industrial district of Doha, Qatar, on March 1, 2026. Mahmud Hams/AFP via Getty Images

“These figures do not include the many Americans who have safely relocated to other countries or those who have departed the Middle East but are still in transit back to the United States,” Johnson said. “At the direction of Secretary [Marco] Rubio, Department of State charter flight and ground transportation operations are underway and will continue to ramp up with additional flights and ground transports taking place today.”

“Through the State Department’s 24/7 Task Force, we have assisted over 10,000 Americans abroad, including offering security guidance and travel assistance. The State Department will continue to actively assist any American citizen abroad, who wishes to depart the Middle East, to do so.”

Johnson highlighted that the department has set up an online Crisis Intake form for Americans residing in Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Israel.

U.S. citizens completing the form will receive information about upcoming ground transportation and charter aviation options. Americans in the Middle East can contact the State Department at +1-202-501-4444 for assistance.

In a March 5 post on X, the State Department’s Bureau of Consular Affairs said that in the UAE, limited commercial flights are currently operating out of international airports in the country.

“Passengers are advised not to travel to the airport unless they hold a confirmed ticket and have been explicitly advised by their airline to do so. There are overland routes to Oman and Saudi Arabia where commercial options to depart the region are operating, but there are reports of congestion,” the bureau said.

In Qatar, the airspace and maritime routes remain closed, but the Salwa land border crossing into Saudi Arabia is currently open, the bureau said.

In Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza, the Ben Gurion Airport was scheduled to reopen on March 5 for limited inbound flights, according to a post on X by the agency.

However, “we have no information yet on when outbound flights may become available,” it said. “There are overland routes to Taba, Egypt, where commercial options to depart the region are operating. Americans should strongly consider departing on one of these overland routes if they believe it is safe to do so.”

Americans in Oman should consider leaving as some flights are departing from the nation’s international airports, the bureau said.

According to data from aviation analytics company Cirium, almost 25,000 of the approximately 44,000 flights scheduled to fly in and out of the Middle East between Saturday and Thursday have been canceled.

Firepower to ‘Surge Dramatically’

The Iran conflict, now in its sixth day on Thursday, began after U.S. and Israeli forces launched coordinated strikes against Tehran on Feb. 28.

Adm. Brad Cooper, head of U.S. Central Command, said Thursday that strikes on the Iranian Navy have “intensified.”

U.S. forces have, to date, sunk more than 30 of Iran’s ships, including “an Iranian drone carrier ship roughly the size of a World War II aircraft carrier,” Cooper said.

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said Thursday that firepower over Iran was about to “surge dramatically.”

“When we say more to come, it’s more fighter squadrons, it’s more capabilities, it’s more defensive capabilities,” Hegseth said. “And it’s more bomber pulses more frequently.”

In an update on the war, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, the Israeli army’s chief of the General Staff, said 60 percent of Iran’s missile launchers have been taken out, with 40 percent remaining intact. In addition, 80 percent of Tehran’s air defenses have also been neutralized.

“The threat has not yet been removed. Every missile is lethal and poses a danger,” Zamir said. “We are now moving to the next phase of the operation. In this phase, we will further dismantle the regime and its military capabilities. We have additional surprises ahead that I do not intend to disclose.”

On Thursday, a war powers resolution against Operation Epic Fury failed to pass the House by a vote of 212-219. The resolution aimed to impose guardrails on the United States’ ongoing military operations in Iran. On March 4, the measure failed to pass in the Senate.

After the House vote, Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.), speaker of the House, said the United States was conducting a “limited operation” in Iran that is “limited in scope and duration.”

“We are not at war. We have no intention of being at war,” Johnson said, adding that the U.S. mission against Iran was “nearly accomplished.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 14:40

ASP Isotopes Signs MOU With Major Nuclear Operator

ASP Isotopes announced Thursday that its Quantum Leap Energy (QLE) subsidiary has entered “a non-binding Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with a large publicly traded U.S. energy company that operates nuclear power stations”.

Under the agreement, the utility will evaluate options to provide support and potential financing for QLE’s planned U.S. facilities focused on High Assay Low Enriched Uranium (HALEU), LEU+, uranium conversion and deconversion services. Discussions could also lead to long-term enriched uranium supply contracts, according to the press release. QLE’s CEO described the move as an important validation of the need for reliable domestic fuel sources ahead of the 2028 Russian uranium import ban.

We’ve been tracking ASPI’s growth closely. We spotlighted them as “The Next Nuclear Story Stock” last year after their Silicon-28 supply deal and U.S. radiopharmacy acquisition. November brought news of the QLE private placement backed by investors linked to Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump. December even covered the regulatory green light for the Renergen acquisition in South Africa. We’ve also detailed the looming HALEU crunch and the 2028 ban in recent fuel-chain reports.

ASP Isotopes Jumps After Investment By Trump's Boys https://t.co/RJkYtG3MD1

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 7, 2025

QLE’s Texas footprint keeps expanding. The company established their global headquarters in Austin, advanced its joint-venture plans with Fermi America (co-founded by former Energy Secretary Rick Perry) for a HALEU research and production site at the 11 GW HyperGrid campus near Pantex, and continues working with TerraPower and South Africa’s NESCA. With a former Constellation Energy executive on the board (Ralph Hunter) and Vistra already scaling its Texas nuclear fleet for AI power demand, it's worth speculating that this partnership is in coordination with CEG or VST. 

We also just covered TerraPower receiving the first NRC construction permit for a commercial-scale advanced reactor in nearly a decade. The company also signed a major agreement with Meta in January for up to eight Natrium units. These milestones directly relate to QLE’s position through their 2025 agreements, under which TerraPower is providing financing for QLE’s planned HALEU enrichment facility in South Africa and committing to long-term offtake.

Despite the growing list of partnerships, QLE has yet to enrich any uranium or break ground on any facilities for research or commercial development in the US. The pieces are falling into place for a domestic nuclear fuel renaissance, but the sector still needs actual production, not just paper commitments.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 14:20

Did Trump Force China's Hand? Beijing Nears 500-Jet Boeing Deal Ahead Of Xi Summit

Boeing shares moved higher in late-afternoon trading in New York after Bloomberg News reported that the planemaker may be nearing one of the largest sales in its history, potentially to be unveiled during President Trump's trip to China later this month.

People familiar with the potential Boeing-China jet deal said it could be announced during President Trump's trip to Beijing from March 31 to April 2. They said the deal includes a 500-plane order for 737 Max jets, with additional talks covering approximately 100 widebody aircraft, including 787 Dreamliners and 777Xs.

Boeing aircraft have long been at the center of US-China trade talks, as well as tit-for-tat trade disputes. If the deal materializes, it would mark one of Boeing's biggest sales ever and end years of a Chinese jet sales drought.

Bloomberg offered a caveat:

There's a chance that the talks could reach an impasse and a deal not be completed, they cautioned. The nation's leaders were closing in on a similar agreement last year and in 2023. The two sides are still negotiating the specifics of the announcement, with the US pushing for a firm commitment and not just a headline-grabbing dollar value, said one of the people.

Shares of Boeing jumped about 2% on the news.

Bloomberg noted that Boeing declined to comment, while China's Ministry of Commerce did not respond to a request for comment. We caution that the report relies on unnamed sources.

Our view is that a headline like this appears highly unusual (the scale of the order suggest more than simply a gesture of goodwill), particularly as Trump has moved to squeeze Beijing's access to cheap crude from Venezuela and Iran.

Even with the risk of an energy shock, Beijing now appears to be on the verge of buying a record number of U.S. commercial jets, which suggests Trump may have gained some leverage (perhaps through his two-month crusade with America's military) ahead of the planned Trump-Xi meeting later this month.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 14:10

It Was All A Mirage: 2.5 Million Native-Born US Workers Were Just Revised Away

One of Donald Trump's core pre-election promises (along with cracking down on immigration and no more foreign wars) was to boost employment for local-born Americans at the expense of the record employment for foreign-born, mostly illegal, workers. And for a while it worked: four months ago, when discussing the September jobs report, we said that while the broader report was generally mixed, it was "indisputably strong when it comes to one thing: the rotation from foreign born workers to domestic ones. To wit: in September, the number of native-born workers surged by 676K (after the August drop of 561K), while foreign-born workers dropped by 70K."

The data showed that since Trump entered the White House "the number of foreign born workers has slumped from a record 33.7 million in March 2025 to 32.1 million, a drop of $1.6 million. This has been offset by a slow but consistent increase in native-born workers which had been unchanged for six years since 2019 until the start of 2025, at which point it started to rise again, and has increased from 131.2 million in March 2025 to a new record high of 133.2 million in September."

Why does this matter? Because today's job report, which was undeniably dismal and sparked added to the sharp selloff across the market, also updated the working age population calculations to reflect the latest US Census population count for 2025. The new controls led to a big change in the January estimate of various employment metrics. They

• Lowered the working-age population by 231k;
• Reduced the labor force by 1,417k;
• Cut the employment level by around 1,432k;
• Lowered the labor-force participation rate by 0.46 percentage point and the employment-to-population ratio by 0.47 ppt.

But perhaps the most important revision is that the entire boom in native-born employment was fake news: a statistical mirage spawned by some overzealous BLS staffer's excel model. 

Presenting exhibit A: the monthly change in native and foreign-born workers. It shows that while the number of native-born workers in February did post a solid rise of 877K - using the revised data - this was only after the January data was revised comprehensively to wipe out a record 2.5 million (exactly) native born workers.

And here is what it looks like over the longer-term: at just under 131 million, the number of native born workers is back to where it was in 2019.

Which means that what some consider the greatest accomplishment of the Trump admin was nothing more than statistical fake news. The silver lining: at least there is the Iran war to keep everyone distracted. 

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 13:40

"Most Dangerous Geopolitical Blitz Since Bretton Woods": Trump Says Cuba's Communist Regime Is Next To Fall

"We've got plenty of time, but Cuba's ready," President Trump told CNN in an interview on Friday morning. The president told CNN reporter Dana Bash that Havana will "fall pretty soon" and that he will "place Marco over there." 

2/7 ON CUBA: President Trump said, "Cuba is gonna fall pretty soon." He said he's going to "put Marco over there" and "we've got plenty of time, but Cuba's ready."

— Dana Bash (@DanaBashCNN) March 6, 2026

The Trump administration has communicated for months about toppling the Communist regime in Havana as power blackouts across the Caribbean island nation worsen this week. 

Trump's fuel blockade on Cuba has led some analysts to warn that the Cuban government will exhaust all fuel reserves by mid- to late March, bringing the island into complete paralysis.

Marco Rubio looking forward to what March brings with Cuba. pic.twitter.com/tBYM7pyKU7

— Stephen L. Miller (@redsteeze) March 1, 2026

It's clear that Trump has tasked Secretary of State Marco Rubio with leading the talks on a "friendly" takeover of the island. 

"They want to make a deal so badly, you have no idea," Trump said at the White House on Thursday.  

Making sense of the world seemingly in a fiery mess is Graham Cooke, founder of Brava (brava.xyz), an automated stablecoin yield platform, who wrote on X, "Trump is running the most dangerous geopolitical blitz since Bretton Woods. And the endgame isn't a trade war."

Cooke continued, "There's a theory circulating that Trump is running a far more ambitious play -- one designed to collapse BRICS, force China's hand, and lock in dollar dominance for decades." 

Trump is running the most dangerous geopolitical blitz since Bretton Woods.

And the endgame isn't a trade war.

There's a theory circulating that Trump is running a far more ambitious play -- one designed to collapse BRICS, force China's hand, and lock in dollar dominance for… pic.twitter.com/Z5IrGSrfzZ

— GC Cooke (@Gccooke) March 5, 2026

Over the last two months, the Trump administration has increased pressure on Beijing. The timeline is very notable: Maduro's removal effectively shut Venezuelan crude flows to China; the U.S. then tightened Cuba's fuel position to position the island towards collapse to rid the communists from Havana; Panama eliminated Chinese-linked ports at the canal; and now, nearly a week into Trump's Operation Epic Fury against Iran, China's access to cheap Iranian crude and gas has been severed. All of this comes before Trump heads to China later this month, holding multiple new leverage cards in one absolutely insane chess game to play in the midterm election cycle. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 13:20

Virginia Democrats Move To Require Teaching Jan. 6th As An "Insurrection"

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Virginia Democrats are moving to require teachers to tell students that Jan. 6th was an “insurrection” and effectively bar them from referencing “peaceful protests” or election irregularities. The characterization of the riot as an insurrection is historically and legally false. However, any parents who want to send their children to Virginia public schools would have to accept this form of indoctrination as part of their children’s education.

In the last election, Democrats campaigned as moderates, including Abigail Spanberger.

Once in control of the Governor’s mansion and the legislature, however, they have moved quickly to the far left in a flurry of measures. Democratic legislators just voted themselves almost a 300% increase in salaries.  They will need it. They are moving to increase taxes on ride shares, concerts, counseling, leaf blowers, Amazon deliveries, DoorDash, Uber Eats, ammunition, and other areas.

However, HB 333, drafted by Del. Dan I. Helmer of Fairfax, raises serious concerns over academic freedom and free speech.

The summary of the bill mandates “a program of instruction on or relating to the January 6, 2021, insurrection at the United States Capitol” and further:

“prohibits any such program of instruction, any accompanying curriculum or instructional materials, or any instruction provided by a teacher as a part of such program of instruction from (i) describing, portraying, or presenting as credible a description or portrayal of the actions precipitating or involved in the January 6, 2021, insurrection as peaceful protest or (ii) stating, suggesting, or presenting as credible a statement or suggestion that there was extensive election fraud that could have changed or actually changed the results of the 2020 presidential election. The bill requires any such program of instruction, any accompanying curriculum or instructional materials, or any instruction provided by a teacher as a part of such program of instruction to describe the January 6, 2021, insurrection at the United States Capitol as an unprecedented, violent attack on U.S. democratic institutions, infrastructure, and representatives for the purpose of overturning the results of the 2020 presidential election.”

Soon after Jan. 6th, I condemned the riot but rejected the argument that this was an insurrection. However, it soon became part of an orthodoxy in politics and academia despite the fact that the public rejected it. As former House Speaker Pelosi declared, “It is essential that we preserve the narrative of January 6th.”

Yet, “insurrection” and “sedition” are legal terms. They have a meaning. The FBI investigated thousands after January 6th and charged hundreds. Not one was charged with insurrection or conspiracy to overthrow the country. The vast majority are charged with relatively minor offenses of trespass or unlawful entry or property damage- the type of charges that are common in protests and riots.

Indeed, the Supreme Court effectively reduced many of the charges to mere trespass in later litigation, rejecting obstruction claims.

Faced with a collapsing historical and legal narrative, Democrats are now moving to simply indoctrinate students that this was an “insurrection.”

Notably, Helmer is running again for Congress after Democrats, with the support of Gov. Spanberger, moved to reduce Republicans in the state (which is divided down the middle between the parties) to just one of eleven districts through gerrymandering.

Helmer is running in one of the most notorious new districts, called the “lobster” or the “scorpion,” because it runs from the Potomac River in Arlington southwestward, then splits into two “claws” toward the West Virginia line near Rawley Springs and Goochland and Powhatan.

In my book, Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution, I discuss the radicalization of the American left. While many on the left advocate censoring “disinformation,” they are far less circumspect in promulgating their own disinformation.

Likewise, where Democrats have objected to the pressure put on universities for greater diversity of viewpoints as an attack on academic freedom, these Democrats see no problem in mandating the teaching of positions that are demonstrably false.

Here, Rep. Helmer and other Democrats are mandating the teaching of a false narrative to children rather than simply relying on public debate. The reason is that they are losing the debate over the characterization of this riot as an actual insurrection.

This, and other moves on the left, will only accelerate the exodus of families from public education. Notably, Fairfax County (which Helmer represents) has seen a sharp fall in enrollments in recent years.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 13:00

Anthropic CEO Apologizes For 'Dictator Trump' Meltdown Memo, Downplays 'Supply Chain Risk' Designation, And Is Going To Sue

As Anthropic attempts to salvage their relationship with the Trump administration, CEO Dario Amodei publicly apologized Thursday for the inflammatory tone of his leaked internal memo that accused the White House of targeting his company because it hadn't offered "dictator-style praise" to President Trump. The apology came in his first major interview since the Pentagon's Department of War (DoW) formally designated Anthropic a supply chain risk to national security - effective immediately - marking the first time such a label has been applied to a U.S. company.

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei. Photos: Getty Images

The March 5 designation, confirmed in a letter to Anthropic leadership, stems from weeks of failed negotiations over Claude AI's military applications. Anthropic refused to drop strict red lines prohibiting the model's use for mass domestic surveillance of Americans or fully autonomous lethal weapons, insisting on meaningful safeguards rather than what Amodei previously called "safety theater" in rival deals like OpenAI's. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had threatened broad restrictions, including barring defense contractors from any commercial activity with Anthropic, but the company clarified the scope appears narrower: it primarily affects direct DoW-related work, with partners like Microsoft confirming continued availability for non-defense uses.

Last Friday, the Trump administration 'fired' the company after a bruising dispute with the Pentagon came to a head over ethical concerns surrounding Claude's military use. The Pentagon demanded to use ClaudeAI for "any lawful purpose" with no guardrails - or having to allegedly ask permission in a life-or-death scenario.

In the interview with The Economist Amodei described the crisis as one of the most "disorienting" in Anthropic's history. He attributed the leaked memo - written hastily on Slack amid rapid-fire events including Trump's announcements and OpenAI snaking their contract - to confusion and panic from a "difficult day."

"It does not reflect my careful or considered views," he said, downplaying it as a casual internal message rather than a formal memo. He said he'd apologized to DoW personnel and signaled openness to further dialogue with administration figures, though he sidestepped a direct personal apology to Trump.

Dario Amodei says he is sorry. In his first interview since the Pentagon labelled Anthropic a supply-chain risk—the first American company to receive that designation—the firm’s boss offered a mea culpa for the way he handled a crisis that he described as one of the most… pic.twitter.com/VueK528Yqj

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) March 6, 2026

Amodei's Thursday mea culpa was accompanied with a blog post titled: "Where things stand with the Department of War," where he emphasized shared interests with the military, offered Claude at nominal cost plus engineer support for warfighters, and highlighted ongoing "productive conversations" despite the label.

I also want to apologize directly for a post internal to the company that was leaked to the press yesterday. Anthropic did not leak this post nor direct anyone else to do so—it is not in our interest to escalate this situation. That particular post was written within a few hours of the President’s Truth Social post announcing Anthropic would be removed from all federal systems, the Secretary of War’s X post announcing the supply chain risk designation, and the announcement of a deal between the Pentagon and OpenAI, which even OpenAI later characterized as confusing. It was a difficult day for the company, and I apologize for the tone of the post. It does not reflect my careful or considered views. It was also written six days ago, and is an out-of-date assessment of the current situation.

He also refuted a claim from an anonymous Pentagon official cited in the Washington Post that the Pentagon would have to call Anthropic before making life-or-death decisions in the field, writing: 

As we stated last Friday, we do not believe, and have never believed, that it is the role of Anthropic or any private company to be involved in operational decision-making—that is the role of the military. Our only concerns have been our exceptions on fully autonomous weapons and mass domestic surveillance, which relate to high-level usage areas, and not operational decision-making.

The letter also reiterates a Friday comment that Anthropic will sue to challenge the supply-chain risk designation, calling it "not legally sound" and warning of a "chilling" effect on AI innovation and business if it stands. "We see no choice but to challenge it in court," he wrote, while reiterating Anthropic's desire to continue equipping U.S. forces amid operations (like against Iran via tools including Palantir's Maven). The dual track - apology plus litigation - reflects heavy investor pressure from backers like Amazon and Nvidia to salvage the $380 billion valuation amid revenue momentum nearing a $20 billion annual run rate.

The company also suggested that the supply chain risk designation isn't that bad anyway, and won't affect their customers who deal with the government outside the Department of War; 

The language used by the Department of War in the letter (even supposing it was legally sound) matches our statement on Friday that the vast majority of our customers are unaffected by a supply chain risk designation. With respect to our customers, it plainly applies only to the use of Claude by customers as a direct part of contracts with the Department of War, not all use of Claude by customers who have such contracts.

The Department’s letter has a narrow scope, and this is because the relevant statute (10 USC 3252) is narrow, too. It exists to protect the government rather than to punish a supplier; in fact, the law requires the Secretary of War to use the least restrictive means necessary to accomplish the goal of protecting the supply chain. Even for Department of War contractors, the supply chain risk designation doesn’t (and can’t) limit uses of Claude or business relationships with Anthropic if those are unrelated to their specific Department of War contracts.

The situation underscores major issues that will persist with Silicon Valley's AI-defense nexus: ethical red lines versus unrestricted "any lawful purpose" access, with OpenAI positioned as the compliant alternative. As talks continue and a courtroom battle looms, Anthropic's future hangs on whether Amodei's contrition buys enough goodwill to avert broader fallout—or if the "supply chain risk" label becomes a permanent scar on one of AI's most principled players.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 12:40

Trump Says He's "Not Concerned" About Biggest Gas Pump Price Spike In Years

Americans are experiencing a sharp rise in gas prices this week, with the national average gasoline price posting its largest weekly jump since the early days of the Russia-Ukraine war. If fuel prices continue to climb as the U.S.-Israeli Operation Epic Fury intensifies against Iran, the fallout for consumer sentiment may weigh on the broader economy and affect voting polls in the near term.

The surge in gasoline and diesel prices at pumps nationwide doesn't appear to be a concern for President Trump (at least not yet).

"I don't have any concern about it," the president told Reuters in an interview on Thursday evening when asked about rising prices.

"They'll drop very rapidly when this is over, and if they rise, they rise, but this is far more important than having gasoline prices go up a little bit."

The president's comments come as the national average gas price at the pump has jumped nearly 11% this week to $3.32 per gallon, according to the latest figures from the travel organization AAA.

The nearly 11% surge in the national average is the biggest weekly jump since the week of March 6, 2022, when there was a 12.6% spike due to energy market chaos stemming from the war in Eastern Europe.

Surging WTI futures on Friday morning, now at $86/bbl (Brent crude futures above $90/bbl), suggest that pump prices could be headed higher into the weekend. This is a very big concern for the Trump administration, despite Trump downplaying the whole price surge.

"We have slightly higher oil prices for a little while, but as soon as this ends, those prices are going to drop, I believe, lower than ever before," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Tuesday.

Current WTI fut pricing suggests $3.80-ish for gas at the pump. 

Trump has often touted low pump prices as one of his major accomplishments in making the economy more affordable for Americans after the inflation storm during the four years of the Biden-Harris administration. To be fair, gas prices nationwide are still relatively low compared to those years.

On Wednesday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Fox News that any increase in pump prices would be a temporary bump and a "very small price to pay" for accomplishing Trump's goals in the Middle East. The U.S. is more sheltered than ever to withstand a global energy shock, thanks to Trump's 'pump baby pump' pro-energy policies.

To mitigate the incoming energy shock created by the paralyzed Strait of Hormuz, Trump ordered the government to provide risk insurance for tankers transiting the waterway earlier this week. However, as we have already explained, and as Qatar's energy minister warned this morning, the risks of both an energy shock and a financial shock are soaring.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 12:00

Appeals Court Rules Trump Can Suspend Refugee Admissions

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump has legal authority to indefinitely suspend the admission of foreign nationals who are trying to enter the United States through its refugee resettlement program, a federal appeals court ruled on March 5.

Trump froze refugee resettlement programs as he took office in January 2025.

A three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit issued the new opinion in the case known as Pacito v. Trump.

The panel overturned most of the injunctions that Seattle-based U.S. District Judge Jamal Whitehead issued in February 2025. The judge had blocked Trump’s move to suspend the refugee resettlement program indefinitely, finding the president had gone beyond his legal authority by pausing the program.

In March 2025, the Ninth Circuit paused most of Whitehead’s rulings in favor of the plaintiffs and allowed Trump’s policy to be enforced while the litigation played out.

Trump signed Executive Order 14163 on Jan. 20, 2025. It said that the entry of refugees into the United States under the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program (USRAP) would be detrimental to the country and that the entry of refugees under the program should be suspended.

In Executive Order 14169, signed the same day, Trump directed that funding be suspended for the processing of applications from individuals outside the United States seeking refugee status. He also cut off funding for domestic settlement services for refugees who have been admitted to the United States.

In the new ruling, Circuit Judge Jay Bybee noted that the plaintiffs consisted of refugees recently admitted to the United States and refugees approved for U.S. resettlement but who are outside the country. Also among the plaintiffs were U.S.-based individuals seeking admission for family members or sponsees, and three organizations that had agreements with the U.S. Department of State to provide overseas processing and domestic resettlement services, he said.

The plaintiffs argued that Trump’s suspension of the refugee program violated the Immigration and Nationality Act and that defunding the program violated the Administrative Procedure Act.

The Administrative Procedure Act is a federal statute enacted in 1946 that governs administrative law procedures for federal executive departments and independent agencies. The late U.S. Sen. Pat McCarran (D-Nev.) said at the time the law was “a bill of rights for the hundreds of thousands of Americans whose affairs are controlled or regulated in one way or another by agencies of the federal government.”

Bybee said the court recognizes the “enormous practical implications of this decision,” which largely overrules Whitehead’s orders.

“There are over one hundred thousand vetted and conditionally approved refugees, many of whom may have spent years completing the USRAP process in a third country only to be turned away on the tarmac,” he said.

In the Immigration and Nationality Act, Congress gave the president the power to “suspend the entry of all aliens or any class of aliens,” and it is not for the court to decide if this is a “prudent policy,” Bybee said.

The panel voted 2–1 to uphold Whitehead’s orders preventing the federal government from ending services to already-admitted refugees and the termination of agreements with resettlement support centers.

Circuit Judge Kenneth Lee dissented in that vote, saying he would have completely reversed Whitehead’s orders.

“District courts cannot stand athwart, yelling ‘stop’ just because they genuinely believe they are the last refuge against policies that they deem to be deeply unwise,” Lee said.

A Department of Justice spokesman said the panel’s ruling “reaffirms that activist district court judges cannot usurp the power of the president to protect the American people and set refugee policy for the United States.”

Mevlude Akay Apl, an attorney for the plaintiffs with the International Refugee Assistance Project, said the panel’s ruling “removes the ability for refugees stranded by the refugee ban to be safely resettled, or even have their cases processed, while President Trump’s cruel ban continues.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 11:40

Kuwait Cuts Oil Output As Qatar Warns Hormuz Chokepoint Chaos Risks Global Shock

Update (1126ET):

Kuwait began cutting crude oil output after storage tank farms began filling up, as crude could no longer be loaded onto very large crude carriers and transported through the Strait of Hormuz, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Sources say the OPEC founding member is now weighing broader reductions in crude production and refining, potentially limiting operations to only domestic demand, with a decision expected within days.

UBS analyst Nana Antiedu noted that Brent crude futures climbed to $91/bbl after WSJ released the report.

WSJ noted:

Data provider Kpler said it has seen indications that Kuwait has started to cut production, adding that the country would have to cut more output in the coming days, as storage would otherwise fill up in around 12 days.

Shutting in an oil well risks long-term damage to reservoir pressure and incurs high restart costs, usually making it a measure of last resort. Restarting production can take days or even weeks depending on the reservoir.

"Storage is limited in the Middle East, and the only fix to avoid tanks running over is to curb production," UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. "The longer the strait stays closed, the more barrels of crude and refined products will be missing, leading to higher prices."

Earlier in the day, Qatar's energy minister, Saad al-Kaabi, told the FT that "Everybody who has not called for force majeure we expect will do so in the next few days if this continues. All exporters in the Gulf region will have to call a force majeure."

Also, Iraq had already slashed oil production by half earlier this week, while Qatar shut gas liquefaction plants.

Brent crude futures surged above $91/bbl on Friday morning in New York.

Even if a resolution emerges in the near term, restarting crude fields, refineries, and export hubs would likely take at least a month, and possibly longer. This suggests that the risk of an energy shock is fast approaching.

*   *  * 

Brent crude futures are on track for their biggest weekly gain since the early days of Covid, with the move now exceeding the 20% weekly spike at the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, as the U.S.-Israeli air campaign against Iran, Operation Epic Fury, has tipped the Gulf into an energy crisis, freezing commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and pushing some regional oil and gas production offline.

On Friday, Qatar's energy minister, Saad al-Kaabi, told the Financial Times that the Gulf conflict could trigger a global economic shock, warning that continued fighting would force all Gulf energy exporters to halt output and could send Brent crude prices north of $150 a barrel.

Strait of Hormuz the last 24 hours.

Unreal.

Source: @MarineTraffic pic.twitter.com/krcT5qp4ik

— HFI Research (@HFI_Research) March 5, 2026

"Everybody who has not called for force majeure we expect will do so in the next few days if this continues. All exporters in the Gulf region will have to call force majeure," Kaabi explained. "If they don't, they are at some point going to pay the liability for that legally, and that's their choice."

Qatar is the world's second-largest producer of LNG and was forced to declare force majeure earlier this week after IRGC drone strikes on its Ras Laffan plant.

"This will bring down the economies of the world," he warned. "If this war continues for a few weeks, GDP growth around the world will be impacted. Everybody's energy price is going to go higher. There will be shortages of some products and there will be a chain reaction of factories that cannot supply."

Kaabi continued, "We don't yet know the extent of the damage, as it is currently still being assessed. It is not yet clear how long repairs will take."

On Tuesday, we provided readers with the number of days of disruption needed in the Gulf area (the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint) to trigger actual panic, that is 25. Read the full report here.

And for Zerohedge Premium and Pro subs. JPMorgan crunched the math on Hormuz and revealed just how many days until chaos (report here). 

The math behind the forced shut ins https://t.co/SJ88Pky7D3

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 6, 2026

Then, on Thursday, energy economist Anas Alhajji spoke with top UBS analysts on a webinar that also provided a timeline for energy market chaos and the risks of an impending economic shock.

"Our main scenario is that if this lasts four weeks, things will be completely out of control. And when I say out of control, I mean that even if China starts releasing oil from its inventories, the problem is that my guess is China would also restrict exports, which means that oil would remain in China. We were counting on that oil being in the market, and now it is not going to be in the market," Alhajji said.

Alhajji outlined critical questions:

• Is the war about Iran's nuclear program, or is something much larger at play, with Iran serving more as a trigger or for broader strategic objectives?

• The distinction matters significantly because the medium- and long-term outcomes would look very different.

• Should attention be focused narrowly on Iran's nuclear program and regime change, or should the situation be analyzed within the much wider context of China, trade wars & tariffs, AI competition, Panama Canal, Red Sea, Venezuela, Syria, & Greenland?

• Are we observing "conflicts" within a larger "CONFLICT," where some groups are opportunistically exploiting the situation to pursue their own "local" objectives?

As well as the problem:

• The problem now is attacks that spark panic buying while Saudi Arabia cannot react. Thus, U.S. SPR release is limited, and China might ban exports. Prices would go above $100 easily, but fear would contain demand growth, limiting the increase in oil prices. The impact on LNG and NGLs is higher than on oil.

• We cannot go back quickly to normal. It will take at least 2 months if the war stops tomorrow. (logistics and technical issues)

• Lack of international cooperation (Every country for itself)

In energy markets, Brent crude futures are up 21%, exceeding the 20% spike at the start of the Ukraine-Russia war, and are on track for their largest weekly gain since the first week of May 2020.

Back to 2024 highs. 

There are no signs, at the moment, that the conflict is nearing an end. In fact, there are reports that IRGC forces just hit a US-owned oil tanker near Kuwait.

Goldman analysts earlier this week warned about $100/bbl crude oil prices. Disruptions across the Gulf have already sent diesel futures up 40% this week, while central banks are warning of a possible inflation spike.

Asia's exposure to Gulf oil is concerning, but China's exposure is even more alarming. This suggests that if the conflict persists, Beijing could be facing an incoming shock that risks morphing into a financial crisis

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 11:26

Jobs Shock: US Lost 92K Payrolls In February, Far Below Lowest Estimate, As Unemployment Rate Rises

In our nonfarm payrolls preview, we quoted JPMorgan's Market Intel desk which said that "for this print, the stronger the better", which by implication means that a poor number would be bad. By that logic, the actual number couldn't be any worse, because moments ago the BLS reported that in February, the US lost 92,000 jobs, a huge drop from the downward revised (of course) 126K in January, and the second worst print since 2020 (only October's shock -140K was worse), and this time, the massive drop can’t be dismissed as a one-time drop in government payrolls. The number of private payrolls dropped by 86K, also a huge miss to estimates of a 60K increase.

The February payrolls print was a six-sigma miss to the 55K median estimate, and came in 83K below the lowest estimate!

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised down by 65,000, from +48,000 to -17,000, and the change for January was revised down by 4,000, from +130,000 to +126,000. With these revisions, employment in December and January combined is 69,000 lower than previously reported. 

On a nonseasonally adjusted basis, 563k jobs were added in February, lower than the BBG estimate of 800k. An important driver of the jobs miss was the revised birth-and-death model, which contributed only 90k to February’s nonseasonally adjusted estimate. That compares with 136k last February and 151k in February 2024.

One potential mitigating factor: the number of people who were unable to work due to weather surged to 228K in February, well above last year's level 167K, due to the powerful winter storms hitting the US.

Looking under the surface does not reveal as silver lining: part-time workers dropped by 249K while full-time workers slid by 100K.

Perhaps the only silver lining was that native-born workers jumped by 877K (which was only a modest reversal of the 2.5 million drop last month), while foreign born workers dropped by 394K.

The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to 4.44% vs estimates of an unchanged print, as the number of unemployed workers rose by 203K from 7.368MM to 7.571MM, while the civilian labor force was virtually unchanged (from 170.564K to 170.483K). Notably, the increase in unemployment was driven by an increase in the U-2 rate – those who lost their jobs – which went from 2.05% in January to 2.12% in February.

Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.0% (below the estimate of 62.5%), and the employment-population ratio, at 59.3%, changed little in February. These measures showed little change over the year, after accounting for the annual adjustments to the population controls. 

Turning to wages, average hourly earnings rose 0.4% MoM, same as January and above estimates of a 0.3% imcrease. This translated into a 3.8% YoY increase, up from 3.7% and the consensus of an unchanged print.

Some more details from the report

• The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) changed little at 1.9 million in February but is up from 1.5 million a year earlier. The long-term unemployed accounted for 25.3 percent of all unemployed people in February. 
• The number of people employed part time for economic reasons decreased by 477,000 to 4.4 million in February. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. 
• The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job changed little in February at 6.0 million. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. 
• Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force changed little at 1.6 million in February. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, decreased by 109,000 in February to 366,000. 

Turning to the establishment survey, which unveiled the shocking February drop, the BLS reported a broad-based decline, driven by striking employment workers:

• Employment in health care decreased in February, reflecting strike activity. Employment in information and federal government continued to trend down. Payroll employment changed little on net in 2025. 
• Health care employment declined by 28,000 in February, following a large increase in January (+77,000). Offices of physicians lost 37,000 jobs in February, primarily due to strike activity. Hospitals added 12,000 jobs. Over the prior 12 months, health care had added an average of 36,000 jobs per month. 
• Employment in information continued to trend down in February (-11,000). The industry had lost an average of 5,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months.
• In February, federal government employment continued to decline (-10,000). Since reaching a peak in October 2024, federal government employment is down by 330,000, or 11.0 percent.
• Employment in social assistance continued its upward trend in February (+9,000), driven by individual and family services (+12,000).
• Transportation and warehousing employment changed little in February (-11,000). A job loss in couriers and messengers (-17,000) was partially offset by a gain in air transportation (+5,000). Employment in transportation and warehousing has declined by 157,000, or 2.4 percent, since reaching a peak in February 2025.
• Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; retail trade; financial activities; professional and business services; leisure and hospitality; and other services.

Looking at the sectoral composition of hiring, it’s clear that strikes and weather were a drag:

• The net change in health-care payrolls declined steeply, to -28k in February from 77k in January. A strike by 31k employees at Kaiser Permanente contributed to the drop.
• Construction (-11k vs. 48k prior), retail trade (2k vs. 11k prior), and leisure and hospitality (-27k vs -12k prior) all contributed to the decline. Hiring in these sectors tends to be sensitive to weather conditions, suggesting the storms in early February – and perhaps payback from temperate weather in the first half of January – played a role in the weak February print.

In the household survey, the BLS updated the working age population calculations to reflect the latest US Census population count for 2025. The new controls led to a big change in the January estimate of various employment metrics. They

• Lowered the working-age population by 231k;
• Reduced the labor force by 1,417k;
• Cut the employment level by around 1,432k;
• Lowered the labor-force participation rate by 0.46 percentage point and the employment-to-population ratio by 0.47 ppt.
• Altogether, that lifted the unemployment rate by 4 bps.

Separately, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ updated “birth-and-death” model of business formations — which now incorporates current-month information — exaggerated the weaknesses.

Excluding the temporary effects, Bloomberg's economists think payrolls probably are growing at a pace of around 20k per month. That’s slightly below the breakeven pace, explaining the rise in the unemployment rate for the month.

While we will have more to say about this report, the kneejerk reaction is, well, bad: this was about as ugly as it could be, and coming in a time when input costs are soaring due to the Iran war, it screams AI-driven stagflation. Indeed, Bloomberg's Anna Wong hesitates to dismiss the weakness as entirely temporary, a study by Bloomberg Economics and Bloomberg Intelligence of corporate earnings-call transcripts flags that companies across a broad set of industries intend to keep hiring flat this year.

Still, Wong writes that We see the labor market as cooling rather than deteriorating sharply - but the softness in hiring reinforces the case for Fed rate cuts later this year.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 10:45

Iran's Financial Hub, The UAE, May Freeze Billions In Assets Over Retaliatory Strikes

The United Arab Emirates is pissed after Iran targeted Dubai and other US allies with over 1,000 drones and missiles in retaliation for US-Israeli attacks over the last week - and is now weighing freezing billions of dollars in Iranian assets held in the Gulf state, according to the WSJ, citing people familiar with the discussions. If that happens, it could sever one of Tehran's most vital economic lifelines. 

A black plume of smoke rises from a warehouse at the industrial area of Sharjah City in the United Arab Emirates following reports of Iranian strikes in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, March 1, 2026. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)

For years, the United Arab Emirates has functioned as a financial hub for Iran, including wealthy individuals, businesses, and accounts associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). While some of that (if not most) is legitimate business, the UAE has also been used to launder money through 'shadow banking' and other schemes - something the UAE has worked with the west (probably not that hard) to combat.

The UAE has been a 'Switzerland' of sorts - welcoming capital from around the world with little judgement, including happily doing business with Russian commodities traders and bankers following the invasion of Ukraine, despite US officials insisting that they ramp up scrutiny on money flows and crack down on sanctions evasion. In 2022, Paris-0based Financial Action Task Force placed the UAE on its "gray list" for failing to combat money laundering and terrorism financing.

In 2024, $9 billion linked to clandestine Iranian financial activity passed through UAE-based firms, largely connected to oil sales by Iran-linked companies in Dubai, according to the Treasury Department. 

Iranian Funds for Hezbollah Are Flowing Through Dubai (WSJ)

Treasury Sanctions Iranian Network Laundering Billions for Regime Through Shadow Banking Scheme (US Treasury)

After the UAE closed a handful of accounts held by Russian oligarchs and oil traders at the behest of US officials, the FATF removed them from their list for strengthening their anti-money-laundering policies. But they still hold billions in Iranian assets, and they're not to happy about being targeted in retaliation strikes - which have caused damage at a Dubai airport, residential and tourist areas around the Burj Al Arab hotel, and the Palm Jumeirah man-made island. 

Tehran has been selling oil on the international market to fund the IRGC as well as other parts of their defense and security complex, through this shadow banking scheme, according to Treasury.

As such, any move to limit Iranian financial activities - which would likely not apply to all accounts held by Iranian companies and nationals (hundreds of thousands of whom live in the UAE) - "would be very significant, because the U.A.E. is the most important conduit for Iran’s engagement with the global economy," said Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, chief executive of Iran-focused think tank Bourse & Bazaar, in a statement to the Journal. 

U.A.E. authorities are weighing several measures to dismantle illicit Iranian operations, officials familiar with the matter said. They range from freezing the assets of U.A.E.-based shadow companies used to mask trade to a sweeping financial crackdown on local currency exchanges which are used to move money outside of formal banking channels.

If the U.A.E. decides to move on Iran’s shadow-financing empire, a prime target would be accounts affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the powerful group responsible for defending and perpetuating the regime, the officials familiar with the discussions said.

That said, the UAE is also carefully weighing the risks of an asset freeze - as they're concerned that it may trigger prolonged retaliation by Iran against the Emirati territory and their critical energy infrastructure. It would also damage their ability to attract and retain capital from other sensitive countries such as Russia. 

"This is the most important nonmilitary lever the U.A.E. have to play against the Iranians," said Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King’s College London, adding that a more targeted approach is the most likely course. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 10:40

From 'Model Migrant' To Wife-Chopper: Integration Poster-Boy Accused Of Grisly Murder

Via Remix News,

The Eritrean migrant accused of dismembering his partner and the mother of his daughter was once held up as a “model migrant” 10 years ago in a variety of German newspapers. These papers reported that he was an example of how “integration” could work.

Today, 41-year-old Asmerom G. is accused of butchering his own wife. In fact, authorities have still not found her head.

German media were still singing his praises in 2016. The man from Eritrea had landed a job as an electrical assistant at a firm in Rheinbach, in North Rhine-Westphalia, and gave interviews about leaving his homeland three years earlier to escape political persecution.

He wanted German citizenship, he said. His boss at the time was quick to describe Asmerom G. as talented, reliable, and “capable of anything,” according to Bild newspaper.

However, then reality arrived. Within a year, Asmerom G. was in trouble with the law. A brawl led to a conviction for grievous bodily harm at Siegburg District Court, earning him a six-month suspended sentence.

He moved on from Rheinbach and took up work behind the wheel of a freight truck.

Somewhere along the way, he made a trip back to his home country — for reasons that remain unclear — and returned to Germany with a woman named Weghata A., who was 31, his wife under Eritrean law.

On July 26, 2025, she delivered their daughter.

Three months later, Weghata A. was dead.

What happened next garnered headlines across Germany.

On Nov. 17, on Autobahn 45 near Olpe on Nov. 17, a driver said she spotted something on the side of the road. When officers investigated, they found two severed women’s hands. Forensic teams matched the fingerprints to Weghata A., who had already been reported missing from her asylum accommodation in Bonn, where she had been living alone with her infant daughter.

Days later, Weghata A.’s torso was recovered, but her head remains missing.

The baby was found the day before, alive and unharmed, abandoned in a stroller in Hesse outside the Kröffelbach monastery in Waldsolms. A monk found the child and two handwritten notes giving only her name and date of birth.

While investigators quickly identified Asmerom G. as the prime suspect, he had already boarded a flight to Ethiopia. He was arrested there in late November.

In early February, he was extradited back to Germany, where he is now in pre-trial detention.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 10:00

Russia Giving Iran Targeting Intelligence Of American Warships, Aircraft: US Officials

The Trump-ordered US-Israeli attack on Iran is continuing to create an array of 'unknowns' while steadily drawing in outside powers, with the most significant Friday development being The Washington Post reporting that Russia has been providing Iran with intelligence on the locations of US military assets in the Middle East, including warships and aircraft.

US officials described the effort as "a pretty comprehensive effort" by Moscow, though the accuracy of the intelligence remains unclear - the paper admits. What follows is the money quote:

"Russia is providing Iran with targeting information to attack American forces in the Middle East, the first indication that another major US adversary is participating – even indirectly – in the war, according to three officials familiar with the intelligence."

Russian Foreign Ministry image/Flickr

The report cites three officials familiar with the intelligence, who spoke about the support on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue.

"The targeting information has included the locations of American warships and aircraft in the Middle East, the officials said," WaPo writes.

A couple of contextual issues: it remains that the 'fog of war' and propaganda is very heavy - and so such allegations especially from an ultra-heart-of-the-establishment D.C. beltway publication should be treated with caution and skepticism.

It is meant to keep pressure and scrutiny on Moscow at a moment the world's attention is wholly fixated on the Iran theatre. 

However, it also makes perfect sense that Moscow would support a remaining Middle East ally (after the fall of Assad in Syria), given that Russia and Iran signed a strategic partnership agreement earlier this year expanding military and defense cooperation. Despite that, Hegseth said earlier in the week that Russia is "not really a factor" in the conflict.

If the report is accurate, what might this look like on the ground? Here's an example of the possible implications:

New investigations by CNN reveal that Iran successfully destroyed an advanced U.S. radar system located inside Jordanian territory.

According to CNN’s analysis of satellite imagery, the radar installation appears to have been completely destroyed. The investigation also indicates that buildings housing similar radar systems at two additional locations in the United Arab Emirates were reportedly targeted in separate attacks.

Above: this is over 500 miles from Iran.

Could the Iran war eventually emerge as the next ground zero Mideast proxy battleground between the US and Russia? It remains unlikely that Moscow will get involved too directly, given also it has a costly war with Ukraine to run; however, this alleged heightened intelligence sharing with Tehran points to a first step of sorts.

From the Kremlin's point of view, Washington has already long been doing the same, and in a major way, in the context of the Ukraine proxy war.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/06/2026 - 09:40