Individual Economists

Illinois' Disastrous Demographics: Fewer Youth, A Drop In Working-Age Residents And A Jump In Elderly

Zero Hedge -

Illinois' Disastrous Demographics: Fewer Youth, A Drop In Working-Age Residents And A Jump In Elderly

Submitted by Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner of WirePoints

A review of U.S. Census population data since 2020, including fresh 2024 data released this week, reveals a perfect demographic storm that’s likely to worsen Illinois’ downward spiral. 

Illinois has experienced from 2020 to 2024 the nation’s worst collapse in youth aged 18 and under; the 6th-worst drop in working age residents; and a jump in the elderly’s share of population. All three in combination foreshadow a vicious cycle of higher taxes and taxpayer flight, leading to even higher taxes and more population decline.

The demographic challenges above are piling up on top of a slew of other damaging population data released recently. 

Illinois’ population loss of nearly 110,000 since 2020 is the nation’s 3rd worst. Only a spike in illegal immigration the last two years has been able to temporarily slow the state’s population decline. And the state has been chasing out its wealthy residents in exchange for incomers who make far less.

The overall population results of the last four years show why Illinois needs an absolute flip of its politics and policy. 

Here’s what the latest demographic data shows for Illinois:

Nation’s worst drop in number of residents age 18 and under. Illinois had 184,000 fewer residents aged 18 and under in 2024 vs 2020. That’s a 6% drop, the biggest percentage loss in the country. 

To be sure, much of Illinois’ decline can be attributed to the national trend of declining births. In all, just 11 states increased their youth population over the same period. But having the worst decline shows Illinois is in special trouble. Every one of Illinois’ neighbors had a far smaller decline than we did.

Florida, in contrast, had its age 18 and under population grow by 5.5%, or nearly 250,000, over the same period.

Nation’s 6th-worst drop in working-age residents. Illinois needs a massive growth in its tax base to change its current trajectory from ever-higher taxes to actual tax relief. Not to mention it needs more productive workers to spread out the cost of its nation’s-highest pension debt.

Unfortunately, over the last four years Illinois lost 146,000 18-64 working age residents. That’s a decline of 2%, the 6th-worst change in the country.

Texas and Florida show the power of attracting workers from other states to drive their economies. In just four years Florida added 950,000 working-age residents and Texas, 1.3 million.

Seniors growing as a share of population. Compounding the demographic problems mentioned above is a significant 225,000 increase in Illinois’ number of senior citizens.  With the young and working-age brackets in decline, seniors now make up 18% of the population, up from 16% four years before. As a result, the tax base will be under even bigger pressure.

Count on the bad news to keep coming. There’s zero indication that the state’s current leadership plans to reverse course on the policies that have gotten Illinois into this mess.

Appendix.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 20:05

CDC Advisers Vote To Recommend Removal Of Mercury From Influenza Vaccines

Zero Hedge -

CDC Advisers Vote To Recommend Removal Of Mercury From Influenza Vaccines

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Advisers to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on June 26 advised the agency to stop recommending influenza vaccines containing a mercury-based preservative.

The CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practice meets in Atlanta on June 25, 2025. Elijah Nouvelage/Getty Images

The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) in a series of votes reaffirmed the existing recommendation that virtually all individuals aged at least 6 months of age receive an annual influenza shot. The panel further advised, though, that individuals only receive thimerosal-free vaccines.

About 95 percent of influenza vaccines administered in the United States in late 2024 and early 2025 were free of thimerosal, according to the Food and Drug Administration. Dr. Tracy Hoeg, an FDA official, told the committee that there appear to be enough influenza vaccine doses without thimerosal for the upcoming virus season, which runs from the fall into the winter.

A spokesperson for Sanofi told The Epoch Times in an email: “We acknowledge the recommendation of the new ACIP. We now await the decision by the CDC on the path forward.

“We will have sufficient supply of Sanofi flu vaccine to support customer preference for this season.”

Seqirus, which also produces influenza vaccines with thimerosal, has not responded to requests for comment.

ACIP provides advice to the CDC’s director, who typically adopts the recommendations.

The CDC has no acting director listed on its website. President Donald Trump’s nominee for the post, Susan Monarez, is being considered by the Senate. The CDC and its parent agency, the Department of Health and Human Services, did not respond to requests for comment.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. earlier in the year adopted some recommendations offered by ACIP.

Kennedy has long opposed vaccines with thimerosal, and the panel heard before the vote from Lyn Redwood, a past president of a nonprofit that Kennedy founded who is now listed as an employee of the Department of Health and Human Services.

Redwood said in her presentation that a number of studies have provided evidence against thimerosal, including a 2003 paper that found an association between thimerosal exposure and tics and a 2007 study that found links to several positive and several negative associations, including a lower measure of executive functioning.

There have been studies that have found evidence of harm,” Redwood said.

Thimerosal is about 50 percent mercury by weight. It was used broadly in vaccines for decades before largely being phased out in the 2000s in what federal officials have described as a precautionary measure.

“We do have a risk of repeated exposure to this. So it’s not just a one administration, but potential chronic exposure on an annual basis,” Dr. Robert Malone, one of the CDC’s advisers, said after listening to Redwood’s presentation.

A number of CDC advisers said they supported lowering exposure to mercury, noting that mercury is a known toxin.

“We need to do whatever we can to control the controllable sources of exposure,” Retsef Levi, another panelist, said.

Dr. Cody Meissner, a pediatrician who was just reappointed to the committee, strongly opposed the move.

“ACIP makes recommendations based on scientific evidence as much as possible,” he said. “And there is no scientific evidence that thimerosal has caused a problem.”

Some representatives of health groups serving as liaisons to the committee, including Dr. Matthew Zahn with the National Association of County and City Health Officials, told the panel before the vote that they think thimerosal-containing vaccines are safe.

The CDC said in an unsigned document posted online on June 24 that “evidence does not support an association between thimerosal-containing vaccines and autism spectrum disorder or other neurodevelopmental disorders.” Staffers said that the papers that have found an increased risk of neurodevelopment disorders and autism from thimerosal-containing vaccines ”have significant methodological limitations including unmeasured confounding, inaccurate assessment of exposures, differences in control and case groups, unverified diagnoses, and other potential biases that threaten the validity and reliability of the findings.”

The document was taken offline before the meeting.

This document by the CDC vaccine safety office did not go through the appropriate process to be posted,” a spokesperson for the Department of Health and Human Services told The Epoch Times in an email.

The spokesperson said the document was provided to all ACIP members, and members said they had reviewed it.

In the first vote, every adviser except for one voted in favor of keeping the existing recommendation that people aged 6 months and older receive an influenza vaccine on an annual basis unless they have a contraindication. The next three votes focused on whether to recommend thimerosal-free vaccines for various populations.

Vicky Pebsworth, one of the members, abstained from all four votes, saying she did not think there had been enough discussion about the topic. Meissner voted no on the thimerosal-free vaccine votes. All other advisers voted yes.

Members said in a joint statement after the meeting: “We came to this meeting with no predetermined ideas and will make judgments as if we are treating our own families. Unbiased scientific thinking is fundamental to the committee’s charge. Our votes are recommendations, but we know that some may perceive them as mandates, so we take this responsibility very seriously. We pledge to not hold a vote if there is not sufficient information to enable evaluation of the risks and benefits.”

Kennedy recently removed all 17 members of ACIP and replaced them with new members.

Kennedy wrote in a lengthy social media post on June 24 that “there are high bolus doses of mercury in flu shots” and that the cumulative impact of the doses in children who receive a shot every year could result in levels much higher than recommended. He also cited multiple papers, including a study that found higher brain-to-blood mercury concentration ratios in monkeys exposed to thimerosal versus a control group.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 19:15

Last Christian Town In West Bank Attacked And Besieged By Israeli Settlers

Zero Hedge -

Last Christian Town In West Bank Attacked And Besieged By Israeli Settlers

The last entirely-Christian town in the Israeli-controlled West Bank is enduring a wave of attacks by violent Jewish settlers, a local church leader says, prompting families to flee and leading clergy to declare the town is "no longer safe" for its inhabitants. Ominously, settlers have also set up an "outpost" on the fringe of that town -- Taybeh, Ramallah -- a 4,500-year-old community with huge significance in the story of Jesus Christ. 

Palestinian Christians have lived harmoniously in Taybeh, but are now besieged by violent Jewish settlers who've established an outpost on the 4,500-year-old town's agricultural land 

“The town, which the Gospel of John (11:54) refers to as ‘Ephraim’ — the place Jesus withdrew to before his passion — is no longer safe for its people today," Father Bashar Fawadleh, parish priest of Taybeh's Church of Christ the Redeemer, told the Catholic, Arabic-language ACI MENA news service. "We do not live in peace but in daily fear and siege...Since last October, more than 10 families have left Taybeh due to fear from ongoing violence and harassment."   

This and other videos embedded below are circulating on social media, purportedly capturing the settlers' latest attacks on Taybeh this week (BBC confirms an attack took place on Wednesday): 

This is only the latest in an ongoing pattern of aggression directed toward Taybeh's inhabitants, a pattern that has also included stealing farm equipment, and destroying crops with fire or by releasing settlers' cattle to devour themCatholic News Agency reports.  

Settlers have established an outpost on the town's eastern edge, on the remains of a farmhouse abandoned by Christians who'd fled about a year ago under the growing settler campaign of violence and intimidation. An "outpost" is a Jewish settlement on Palestinian land that's not authorized by the Israeli government. Outposts typically begin with something as small as a tent or a van, and are frequently situated on hilltops or agricultural land. In the case of "herding outposts," settlers will bring livestock that they allow to graze over a wide area with the goal of establishing a larger claim. Despite outposts' lack of government permission at the outset, the Israeli government often legalizes them retroactively, cementing the Palestinians' loss of the land. (Note, there are both Christian and Muslim Palestinians, and both varieties experience the iniquities associated with being non-Jewish in the West Bank.)

The settler outpost on Taybeh's periphery sits in an economically-essential agricultural zone that comprises 4,200 acres out of the town's total 5,900 acres. The land is used for olive groves and seasonal crops, along with raising poultry and sheep. In the usual sequence of events, Jews in the outposts begin harassing the Palestinians whose families have long lived off that land, preventing them from accessing it. Such behavior is often carried out as Israeli security forces stand by and watch -- often intervening only when Palestinians fight back.  

Local Christians say this agricultural-deprivation tactic is exactly what's playing out in Taybeh: 

During the latest olive harvest season, for the second year in a row, farmers were barred from accessing their land near the Rimmonim settlement — which was built on confiscated Taybeh land — resulting in either theft or complete spoilage of the olive crop. Approximately 20 families were physically assaulted while trying to reach their land.... 

“These days, settlers are grazing their cows on a hill planted with olive and barley fields right next to people’s homes. Locals see this as part of a systematic effort to strangle them economically and push them out,” [said Father Fawadleh] -- ACI MENA / Catholic News Agency

Here, a Palestinian Christian explains how he, his family and fellow Taybeh residents are preyed upon by West Bank settlers seeking to take over the land: 

The terrible treatment of Taybeh's Christians helps explain why Israel-catering Texas Sen. Ted Cruz was booed of a stage in 2014 as he delivered a tin-eared keynote address at a gala hosted by In Defense of Christians (IDC), a nonprofit that seeks to counter persecution and mistreatment of Christians throughout the Middle East -- including Israel. Video of the incident went viral again last week in the wake of Cruz's disastrous interview with Tucker Carlson -- in which Cruz insisted the Bible commands Christians to support the modern political entity that is the State of Israel.

At that 2014 IDC event, things quickly went south when Cruz dished out the Israel-pandering rhetoric that reliably draws applause when he's addressing crowds with no knowledge of the plight of Christian Palestinians in Israel-controlled territory, in Taybeh and elsewhere. "In 1948, Jews throughout the Middle East faced murder and extermination and fled to the nation of Israel," said Cruze. "And today, Christians have no better ally than the Jewish state," he added -- triggering murmurs and boos. Cruz attempted to plow on, saying, “Let me say this: those who hate Israel hate America. And those who hate Jews hate Christians.” The booing and heckling endured, forcing Cruz to abandon the event, saying, "If you will not stand with Israel and Jews, then I will not stand with you." 

Fifteen kilometers northeast of Jerusalem and 12 km northeast of Ramallah, Taybeh was established by the Canaanites between 2500 and 2900 BC. Three Christian communities live there harmoniously: Greek Orthodox, Roman Catholic, and Melkite Greek Catholic. With beautiful whitewashed homes, the original Church of St. George built by the Byzantines in the 4th century, the ruins of a Crusader castle, and described in the Bible (using the name "Ephraim") as the place where Jesus sought refuge before being crucified, it has been an attractive destination for Christian tourists -- though it's unclear how much longer that will be the case.   

One thing is certain: Ted Cruz and groups like Christians United For Israel won't be speaking out on behalf of Taybeh's besieged residents anytime soon.  

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 18:50

Asking Rent Prices In Montreal Have Jumped More Than 70 Percent Since 2019: StatCan

Zero Hedge -

Asking Rent Prices In Montreal Have Jumped More Than 70 Percent Since 2019: StatCan

Authored by Olivia Gomm via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The average asking price for rental units in Montreal increased by nearly 71 percent between 2019 and the first quarter of this year, according to Statistics Canada.

A sign shows an apartment for rent in the Montreal borough of Lasalle on April 23, 2024. The Canadian Press/Christinne Muschi

The average asking rent for a two-bedroom unit in Montreal was $1,130 in 2019, which increased by 70.8 percent to $1,930 by the first quarter of 2025, according to a quarterly report released by StatCan on June 25 in collaboration with the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

Montreal ranked 17th highest for average asking prices of two-bedroom apartments among 40 census metropolitan areas (CMAs) in Canada.

Because prospective renters typically face higher rents compared with long-term tenants—whose rents reflect past leases and can also be subject to rent control regulations—asking rents offer a picture of current market trends,” StatCan said in the report.

Meanwhile, smaller CMAs in Quebec, such as Drummondville and Sherbrooke, recorded the lowest average asking rent prices in the first quarter of 2025. However, these two CMAs also had the largest growth in rental asking price from the first quarter of 2019 to the first quarter of this year.

Asking rent in Drummondville averaged $600 per month in 2019, which jumped to $1,200 per month in 2025, while the asking rent for Sherbrooke in 2019 was $660 and jumped to $1,250 this year.

Toronto, Vancouver

CMAs with the highest average asking rent experienced slower growth in prices between 2019 and 2025.

Toronto, for example, ranks second for highest asking prices. Average asking rent for a two-bedroom apartment in Toronto was $2,560 in the first quarter of 2019, and grew 5.1 percent to $2,690 in the first quarter of 2025.

Average asking rents declined during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Toronto, StatCan said, adding that the decrease was followed by an increase in the second half of 2023, reaching a peak of $2,920 for a two-bedroom unit. Year over year, asking rent decreased by 5.6 percent in Toronto from 2024 to this year’s first quarter.

Vancouver, which has the highest average asking rent for a two-bedroom apartment in Canada, experienced stronger growth than Toronto over the six-year period. Average asking rent in Vancouver increased 27.3 percent from $2,490 in the first quarter of 2019, to $3,170 in the first quarter of this year.

Asking rent in Vancouver began to increase in 2021 and reached its peak of $3,580 by the third quarter of 2023. Prices then decreased by 7.8 percent from the first quarter of 2024 to that of this year.

‘Significant Pressures’

Canada’s housing department released a report on April 30 that indicated rent increases have reached a “record high” average of 8 percent annually, which exceeds both inflation and wage growth.

Canadian renters have been facing “significant pressures” due to high demand for rental housing with rental vacancy rates reaching a historical low in 2023, says Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada’s 2024 Transition Binder. The department added that the demand for rental housing has outpaced the supply in most city centres across Canada.

Canada’s increasing population, primarily driven by immigration, coupled with labour shortages in the construction industry and the rising cost of housing, are trends that have influenced the supply-and-demand dynamics in the housing market, the document says.

“Lack of growth in purpose-built affordable rental housing combined with the diminishing non-market housing stock is impacting social areas beyond housing (e.g., health) and disproportionately affecting newcomers, vulnerable and lower-income groups,” the Transition Binder says.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 18:25

Las Vegas in May: Visitor Traffic Down 6.5% YoY; Convention Traffic up 10.7% YoY

Calculated Risk -

From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: May 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics
With headwinds of ongoing economic uncertainty, the destination hosted approximately 3.4 million visitors in May, down ‐6.5% YoY.

Convention attendance reached approx. 511k for the month (up 10.7%), supported in part by show rotations including LightFair International (8,500 attendees), the Bitcoin conference (30k attendees) and the National Automatic Merchandising Association/NAMA Show (5k attendees). Also, a few shows were held in May this year vs. other months last year, including Las Vegas Antique Jewelry & Watch Show (7,500 attendees, held in June last year) and PETZONE360 Live (5k attendees, held in April last year.)

Hotel occupancy reached 83.0% for the month, down ‐3.1 pts with Weekend occupancy of 89.9% (down ‐3.5 pts) and Midweek occupancy of 79.3% (down ‐3.2 pts). ADR for the month reached $198 (‐2.2% YoY) with RevPAR of $165 (‐5.7% YoY).
emphasis added
Las Vegas Visitor Traffic Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (Black), 2020 (dark blue), 2021 (light blue), 2022 (light orange), 2023 (orange), 2024 (dark orange) and 2025 (red).

Visitor traffic was down 6.5% compared to last May.  Visitor traffic was down 7.4% compared to May 2019.
Year-to-date (YTD) visitor traffic is down 6.1% compared to the same period in 2019.

The second graph shows convention traffic.
Las Vegas Convention TrafficConvention traffic was up 10.7% compared to May 2024, but down 1.8% compared to May 2019.  
YTD convention traffic is down 5.7% compared to 2019.

Eggs Strengthen Muscles And Help Prevent Sarcopenia - How Many Should You Eat?

Zero Hedge -

Eggs Strengthen Muscles And Help Prevent Sarcopenia - How Many Should You Eat?

Authored by Zena le Roux via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

“Eating too many eggs will raise your cholesterol.”

For many years, we were warned to limit eggs in our diet. However, in 2015, the United States Department of Agriculture removed any upper limit on dietary cholesterol from its Dietary Guidelines, marking a big shift in how we view foods like eggs.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock

Once considered villains of heart health, eggs are being re-evaluated as harmless when it comes to our hearts and as a nutrient-dense food that strengthens our muscles.

Eggs stand out as one of the most complete and bioavailable protein sources, making them an excellent choice for supporting muscle growth and maintenance, Jodi Duval, a naturopathic physician and owner of Revital Health, told The Epoch Times.

“They’re a staple in my clinical recommendations for anyone working on muscle mass, strength, or recovery,” she added.

Eggs Support Muscle

Egg protein is an excellent source of all the essential amino acids your body needs and is easy to digest. Thus, eggs are effective for building muscle and preventing loss, especially as we age.

In fact, eggs are likely the most digestible protein source—measured at 97 percent, compared with many plant proteins, which are digested at 45 to 80 percent.

Eggs are also very high in leucine, an amino acid considered to be the strongest stimulator of muscle growth and repair. For optimal muscle benefits, you need 700 to 3,000 milligrams of leucine daily. One egg contains about 500 milligrams, packed in just 72 calories, thus making it a great choice for muscle health.  

Eggs also contain other nutrients important for muscles, according to Duval. These include:

  • Choline, which helps with muscle coordination
  • Vitamin D, important for muscle strength
  • Vitamins B12 and B2 support energy use in muscles
  • Selenium, an antioxidant that helps with recovery
  • Healthy fats, especially found in pasture-raised eggs, which contain omega-3s that reduce muscle inflammation

Omega-3 fats improve how muscles use amino acids and help reduce inflammation, which is important because inflammation can cause muscle loss.

Eggs are effective in helping to prevent muscle loss, or sarcopenia. Starting as early as age 30, adults begin to lose around 8 percent of their muscle mass each decade, a rate that accelerates after age 70.

The type and quality of protein in a meal are especially important as we age. Animal proteins, including eggs, are very effective at stimulating muscle maintenance in older adults. However, getting enough high-quality protein can be challenging for many seniors due to reduced appetite, difficulty chewing or swallowing, limited mobility, or tight budgets.

“Eggs really shine when it comes to preventing muscle loss in older adults,” Duval said.

They are affordable, easy to prepare, and rich in nutrients. Their high-quality protein, especially in the yolk, can improve the body’s ability to use protein effectively with age. Regularly including eggs in meals, particularly breakfast, can support muscle maintenance and improve strength and function in older adults, Duval explained.

Egg Whites Versus Yolks

Many people zero in on egg whites, assuming they’re the healthiest option. However, when it comes to muscle building, tossing the yolk means missing out on some of the egg’s most powerful benefits.

While the egg white provides a high-quality source of protein, the yolk contributes approximately 40 percent of the egg’s total protein content. More importantly, the yolk is rich in nutrients such as lipids, vitamins, minerals, and phosphatidic acid, a type of fat molecule that stimulates muscle growth.

Studies have shown that whole eggs offer greater muscle-building benefits than egg whites alone. In one study, healthy young men ate either whole eggs after a resistance training session, with 18 grams of protein and 17 grams of fat, or an equivalent amount of protein from egg whites, with 18 grams of protein and 0 grams of fat. The study found that whole eggs led to greater muscle building and repair, suggesting that the combination of nutrients in the yolk enhances the body’s ability to build muscle, even when total protein intake is the same.

How Many Eggs?

Around 20 grams of egg protein is enough to stimulate muscle growth after resistance training. Since one egg contains roughly 6 grams of protein, three eggs will get you close to the target.

How much you need also depends on your goals.

For athletes or those aiming to build muscle, Duval often recommends two to four eggs after a workout, along with a carbohydrate source to help replenish glycogen and support recovery.

For older adults, she suggests one to two eggs earlier in the day, like at breakfast, when protein timing is especially important to reduce muscle breakdown, regardless of activity level.

“For both athletes and older adults, consistency and spreading protein intake across the day are more important than loading it all at once,” she added.

Duval also emphasized the importance of egg quality. She always recommends pasture-raised, organic eggs when possible.

“They contain more omega-3s, antioxidants, and offer a better overall nutrient profile,” she said.

Easy and Creative Ways to Enjoy Eggs

Eggs are anything but boring, especially when you get a little creative in the kitchen.

Here are some of Duval’s favorite go-to recipes:

  • Shakshuka: Eggs poached in a spiced tomato and capsicum sauce with cumin, paprika, and fresh herbs.
  • Frittatas: A great way to use up greens, leftover vegetables, and flavor boosters like goat cheese or fresh herbs.
  • Soft-boiled eggs with dukkah: A mixture of nuts, seeds, herbs, and spices, dukkah pairs well with eggs.
  • Scrambled eggs with turmeric and black pepper: Serve with kimchi for a gut-friendly, anti-inflammatory meal.
  • Avocado and egg toast: Top with microgreens and chili flakes for a quick, protein-rich breakfast or lunch.

Duval also recommends prepping ahead: “Egg muffins, boiled eggs for snacks, or nourishing bowls topped with poached eggs are all great make-ahead options.”

Lena Beal, cardiovascular dietitian and spokesperson for the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics, shared a few more fresh ideas with The Epoch Times:

  • Stirred into oatmeal for a surprisingly tasty protein boost
  • Japanese-style tamago or soy-marinated soft-boiled eggs
  • Egg curry flavored with Indian spices

For those who don’t or can’t eat eggs, some egg substitutes—like tofu scramble or chickpea flour omelets—can offer some benefits when combined with other protein-rich foods, though they lack certain nutrients unique to eggs, such as vitamin B12 and choline.

Remember, eggs offer more than protein.

“They are one of the most complete, whole-food tools we have for strength and longevity at every life stage,” Duval said.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 17:40

Trump Urges Swift Action Oon Tax Bill As Republicans Reach Tentative SALT Deal

Zero Hedge -

Trump Urges Swift Action Oon Tax Bill As Republicans Reach Tentative SALT Deal

President Donald Trump intensified his push Friday for Congress to pass his sweeping tax and spending package before the July 4 holiday, as Senate Republicans announced a tentative deal on one of the legislation’s most contentious issues: the state and local tax deduction.

The House of Representatives must be ready to send it to my desk before July 4th — We can get it done,” Mr. Trump wrote on Truth Social, setting a firmer deadline after earlier signaling that slipping past Independence Day “wouldn’t be the end-all.”

The agreement on the so-called SALT cap would raise the current $10,000 deduction limit to $40,000 annually for five years, Senator John Hoeven told reporters Friday afternoon. The development marked a potential breakthrough in negotiations that have divided Republican lawmakers, particularly those from high-tax states like New York, New Jersey and California.

The Senate plans to begin voting on the bill as early as midday Saturday. Still, it remained uncertain whether the compromise would be enough to win over a bloc of House Republicans who had threatened to oppose the package unless the SALT deduction was expanded for a full decade.

This latest revision on includes a phaseout of the enhanced deduction for taxpayers earning $500,000 or more, according to a person familiar with the discussions who requested anonymity to describe private talks. In a further concession, negotiators also agreed to abandon a proposal that would have placed new restrictions on the ability of pass-through businesses - like partnerships and LLCs - to deduct state and local taxes.

That proposal had targeted workaround structures approved by legislatures in states like New York, Connecticut and California, which allowed business owners to sidestep the $10,000 cap that applies to most individual taxpayers. The House version of Mr. Trump’s plan had sought to curtail those arrangements.

Speaking to reporters at the Capitol, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said negotiators were “very, very close” to finalizing the SALT provision. He declined to offer details but emphasized the importance of meeting the president’s July 4 deadline, calling it a source of “certainty.”

The SALT issue is just one of several obstacles that have slowed the bill’s progress in the Senate. Republican leaders are also working to reconcile divisions over proposed cuts to social programs and the elimination of clean energy tax credits—priorities for conservative members that have raised concerns among moderates.

Senator John Thune, the Republican leader, faces the challenge of uniting the party behind a bill that represents the cornerstone of Mr. Trump’s second-term economic agenda. The legislation would make permanent the individual and corporate tax cuts enacted in 2017, while introducing temporary tax breaks for hourly workers, seniors, and new car buyers.

In addition to its tax provisions, the bill authorizes hundreds of billions in new spending for defense, border enforcement, and immigration operations. To offset some of the projected revenue loss, the measure scales back funding for Medicaid, food assistance programs, and federal college aid.

Crucially, the package also includes a $5 trillion increase in the debt ceiling, a move intended to prevent a federal default projected as early as August.

As Republican lawmakers prepare for a weekend of high-stakes votes, the fate of the bill—and its sweeping economic implications—now rests on whether internal party divisions can be resolved in time.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 17:20

Pentagon Creates New 250-Mile Military Buffer Zone At Texas–Mexico Border

Zero Hedge -

Pentagon Creates New 250-Mile Military Buffer Zone At Texas–Mexico Border

Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Department of Defense is establishing a new military buffer zone—known as a national defense area—along the southwestern border to curb illegal immigration.

Texas National Guard soldiers uncoil concertina wire near the U.S.–Mexico border fence in El Paso, Texas. John Moore/Getty Images

On June 25, the U.S. Air Force announced that a 250-mile stretch of the border along the Rio Grande in Texas’s Cameron and Hidalgo counties will be designated an extension of Joint Base San Antonio.

The land was previously managed by the International Boundary and Water Commission, an agency overseeing water-sharing between the United States and Mexico.

The move is part of President Donald Trump’s broader strategy to allocate military resources for border enforcement. In an April presidential memo, Trump outlined plans to establish national defense areas, calling it a military mission “for sealing the southern border of the United States and repelling invaders.”

While the U.S. military generally does not perform civilian law enforcement, the national defense area designation grants limited legal authority for specific actions. Within these zones, servicemembers may help with setting up barriers and signs, conduct patrols—much like on any military base—and temporarily detain trespassers until they are transferred to the appropriate law enforcement authorities.

The first national defense area was designated in April, a 170-mile zone in New Mexico, attached to Fort Huachuca in neighboring Arizona. The following month, a 63-mile section was set up in West Texas under Fort Bliss.

Combined with the new Texas stretch, the total area under national defense area designation now exceeds 480 miles. The Texas–Mexico border extends 1,254 miles.

The Epoch Times has reached out to the Departments of Defense and the U.S. Navy for confirmation regarding any other national defense areas in the works.

In May, a federal judge dismissed trespassing charges against 98 illegal immigrants who had been arrested inside the New Mexico national defense area.

In his ruling, U.S. magistrate judge Gregory Wormuth said the federal government had failed to prove that the accused individuals knew they were entering a restricted military zone, despite posted signs in both English and Spanish warning that unauthorized entry was prohibited.

As the United States concedes, the NMNDA [New Mexico National Defense Area] spans over 180 miles of ‘often difficult and mountainous terrain,’” the judge said. “The mere fact that some ’signs’ were posted in the NMNDA provides no basis on which to conclude that the defendant could have seen, let alone did see, the signs.”

The judge’s decision dismissed two misdemeanor charges faced by the 98 migrants arrested: violating a security regulation and entering military property for an unlawful purpose. A third misdemeanor charge of illegal border crossing still stands.

According to the Department of Justice, as of mid-May, at least 60 individuals have pleaded guilty to illegally entering a national defense area in a separate case related to West Texas.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 17:00

Israel Pummels South Lebanon In Biggest Airstrikes Since November Hezbollah Ceasefire

Zero Hedge -

Israel Pummels South Lebanon In Biggest Airstrikes Since November Hezbollah Ceasefire

In an dangerous sign that hostilities involving Iran and Israel could quickly ratchet again, Israel on Friday is pounding southern Lebanon, where Iran-backed Hezbollah is entrenched, in the biggest escalation there since a November ceasefire was agreed to.

Massive plumes of smoke have been observed over the region, with Lebanon’s official National News Agency reporting that a residential building in Nabatieh was directly struck, resulting in the death of at least one person and the wounding of 21 more.

Israeli airstrikes on the Nabatieh area in south Lebanon on Friday, via X

Local media further says there over twenty strikes in only under 15-minutes, making it the most intense attack in well over six months.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed what it said were airstrikes targeting a "significant underground project" used by Hezbollah. The statement touted that the site was "completely taken out of use" following the strikes,

But questions remain as the IDF said that it targeted a Hezbollah site identified as Beaufort Ridge, which actually lies some five miles from Nabatieh.

"In recent days, the IDF identified attempts by the Hezbollah terror organization to restore the site, and therefore the terror infrastructure in the area was struck," the Israeli military said.

Huge blast images circulating on social media, via X

The IDF further claimed the "presence of this site and the attempts to reestablish it constitute a blatant violation of the understandings between Israel and Lebanon."

This statement suggests the Israel-Hezbollah truce could be on the brink of failure.

This could also be the result of Israeli frustration at President Trump having enforced an Iran ceasefire - given that Israeli leaders were telling the public to expect 'weeks' more of air attacks on the Islamic Republic.

As for current allegations of attacks on Lebanese residential buildings, Israel's military claims "The IDF did not target any civilian building," according to the IDF's Arabic-language spokesman.

"According to the information we have, the building was hit by a rocket projectile that was stored at the site, and was launched and exploded as a result of the airstrike," he said.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 16:40

"Great Cities Fall To The Sound Of Cheering Crowds..."

Zero Hedge -

"Great Cities Fall To The Sound Of Cheering Crowds..."

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

Chaos Creeps In On Little Cat's Feet

"Great cities fall to the sound of cheering crowds."

- Ami Kozak on "X"

The Democratic Party put another bullet in its head this week with the election of the charming, affable jihadi communist Zohran Mamdani. Is “communist” too harsh a label? (He styles himself, softly, a “socialist.”) Yet his campaign platform looks like a template from the venerable Soviet Council of Ministers circa 1957: Free Everything: housing, buses and subways, college, child-care, government food stores. . . with a cherry-on-top of replacing police with social workers in high crime areas — because rapists and car-jackers would quit their rowdy ways if only they could talk about their feelings.

If you believe the news reports emanating from Woke Central, Zohran received major support from the folks who predominate the Upper West Side, where he was raised-up by his Columbia prof Dad and film-maker Mom. That is, voted in by the same high-income demographic that flocks to Zabar’s Deli on Sunday mornings for smoked sturgeon and babka — a curious alliance. I guess this solves the old riddle of why Europe’s Jews walked so placidly into Auschwitz.

“Life imitates art,” old Oscar Wilde liked to say, and with so many self-administered bullets in its head now, the Democratic Party looks more and more like The Walking Dead, a necromantic tribute to its erstwhile mascot, “Joe Biden,” the Phantom of the White House. Fortunately, the Latinx bombshell, AOC, America’s answer to Eva Peron, has stepped up to the leadership role, flanked by the foxy Jasmine Crockett, with their mentor, Bernie Sanders close at hand (on a leash, really) barking validation for the Party’s death trip.

It’s a wonder of our time (and its playful zeitgeist) that New Yorkers might choose a mayor even worse than the brain-dead colossus, Bill de Blasio, but there it is, in plain sight for all to behold. The Big Apple and its various services will now go from their currently merely broke-ass condition, to the complete collapse of infrastructure, transit, housing, revenue, business, and public safety, in other words, to true Third World authenticity! Serious people, who run viable businesses, support families, and pay whopping taxes, are in a panic, all a’chatter about moving elsewhere.

That chatter is not idle, especially among the class that owns major real estate, of which New York City has a frightening and increasingly obsolete inventory — hundreds of office skyscrapers running at fifty percent (or less) occupancy, which cannot cover their mortgages, maintenance, or taxes. What will become of them? I’ll tell you: some will be foreclosed-on, sold for dimes on the dollar (and fail again under new ownership,) and quite few will stand empty waiting for acanthus tree seeds to sprout on their empty windowsills.

Or, they will turn into “squats,” like the towers in the abandoned city center of Johannesburg that I saw visiting there ten years ago. Those giant office buildings were not converted into “residential,” you understand; folks were simply camping-out there, even with the electricity and water turned off. This is exactly what happens when you run the prosperous people, whom you hate, out of town, which is what happened in that sad-sack nation.

How many demonstration projects like that are needed to prove that communism with a racist frosting on top is a mug’s game.

Of course, we’re not there yet. Zohran hasn’t been sworn in, though the victory celebration just now looks like it’s fait accompli. You can only imagine the frantic conversation running between the old party poohbahs out in the cold: Chuck Schumer, Hakim, Nadler, Obama, even the loser, Cuomo, plus the non-elected party apparatchiks: Axelrod, Podesta, Carville, Plouffe, Emmanuel. . . . They’re not saying, but I bet many are silently wondering: Is there some way we can just disappear the guy? Make him go away? X him out? Cancel his ass? (Someone, for Godsake, find a couple of girls who will say he groped them in an elevator!)

Or maybe some electoral work-around? Maybe put what remains of the party’s dwindling financial mojo back behind Eric Adams — yes, he’s still Mayor — who supposedly quit the party (after they tried and failed to stuff him in prison) and is running for mayor now as an independent. . . but who will surely welcome whatever support and moolah they can bring to his cause. Adams’s two great virtues as a political figure: he’s not Bill de Blasio and he’s not Zohran Mamdani.

New York might go down the drain anyway. At least for a while. That broken business model for skyscrapers is not going away anytime soon, and neither is the greatly augmented Third World population funneled across the open border into New York City by “Joe Biden’s” shadowy minders. Will New York turn into that fairytale town whose economy subsisted on people simply taking in each other’s laundry?

Well, the city will always have its geographical assets, like, the best goshdarn ocean harbor in the whole east coast. Something will be there. . . some human agglomeration. But what? And over all of that, like the uncanny eyes of Dr. TJ Eckleburg in Scott Fitzgerald’s The Great Gatsby, looming above the ash-heaps of Queens County on the road to West Egg, lately rises the stern visage of Donald J. Trump, New York real estate mogul superbus, and now President of this sore-beset nation, watching events roll out.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 16:20

DOJ Sues California County Over Non-Citizen Voting Records

Zero Hedge -

DOJ Sues California County Over Non-Citizen Voting Records

Authored by Brad Jones via The Epoch Times,

The Trump administration has sued California’s Orange County Registrar of Voters Robert Page for allegedly withholding information that could reveal noncitizens were registered to vote.

The lawsuit, filed in federal district court, alleges that Orange County undermined voter confidence by “refusing transparency of its voter information in violation of federal voting laws” and  “concealing the unlawful registration of ineligible, noncitizen voters.”

“Voting by noncitizens is a federal crime, and states and counties that refuse to disclose all requested voter information are in violation of well-established federal elections laws” said Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon of the federal Department of Justice (DOJ) Civil Rights Division.

“Removal of noncitizens from the state’s voter rolls is critical to ensuring that the state’s voter rolls are accurate and that elections in California are conducted without fraudulent voting. The Department of Justice will hold jurisdictions that refuse to comply with federal voting laws accountable,” she said.

The lawsuit alleges that Page has refused to provide the DOJ with records pertaining to the removal of noncitizens from its voter registration list and has failed to maintain an accurate voter list in violation of the Help America Vote Act (HAVA).

U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli posted on X on June 26 that Orange County refused “to hand over records showing noncitizens are registered to vote and received ballots in federal elections.”

Page did not respond directly to a media inquiry, but media liaison Enedina Chhim stated in an email to The Epoch Times that the county does not comment on pending or ongoing litigation.”

The lawsuit stems from a complaint received by the Attorney General’s Office from the family member of a noncitizen in Orange County “indicating that the noncitizen received an unsolicited mail-in ballot” from the OC Registrar of Voters.

On June 2, 2025, the attorney general requested documents from Page from Jan. 1, 2020, “to present” showing the number of voter registration records in Orange County canceled because registrants didn’t meet citizenship requirements to vote, according to allegations in the complaint.

Page responded to the request but redacted information such a California driver’s licenses and identification card numbers, Social Security numbers, California secretary of State-assigned voter identification numbers, language preference, and images of registrants’ signatures, according to the complaint.

The legal complaint stated that Page cited state law as the reason for the redactions, and on June 17 the DOJ responded to him indicating the data redaction prohibits the Attorney General’s Office from making an accurate assessment of the whether the OC Registrar of Voters acted in compliance with HAVA and the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA).

The Attorney General’s Office holds that such records are not exempt from the NVRA’s public disclosure provision and is seeking declaratory and injunctive relief.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 15:45

Fired Black Workers Sue Walmart Over Criminal Background Checks

Zero Hedge -

Fired Black Workers Sue Walmart Over Criminal Background Checks

A class action lawsuit was filed Thursday against Walmart for firing Black workers with criminal records.  The suit follows years of accusations by progressive organizations claiming that Walmart has "shown a pattern of firing qualified Black workers" because of past involvement with the legal system - a practice they say perpetuates "racial and economic inequality".

Former workers, attorneys and advocates gathered in Federal Plaza in downtown Chicago to announce the suit and argue their rationale:

"Having a record does not define you or your character," said Marcos Ceniceros, with Warehouse Workers for Justice. "It should not determine your worth, and it certainly shouldn't be used as an excuse to fire Black workers trying to build a better life."

The argument assumes, of course, that Walmart has limited its firings to only black workers with criminal records.  Plaintiffs would have to show evidence that the company does not fire white workers with similar records, or that they have a blanket ban on those with criminal histories (federal law does not allow for blanket bans on hiring convicted criminals).

The criminal background issue also comes down to supply and demand - In a tightening labor market companies are less likely to overlook an employee with a record because they have plenty of applicants with clean histories.  In a choice between a criminal and non-criminal, it's obvious who most employers would hire.  Ultimately, corporations have legal discretion to hire or not hire workers with detrimental backgrounds as long as they review all aspects of each application.

The race debate when it comes to practical business decisions is reminiscent of the ongoing conflict over "food deserts" in cities like Chicago in predominantly black neighborhoods.  Residents and city officials assert that mass retail closures in these neighborhoods constitute an attack on racial equality, but they continually ignore the key problem - High crime and high rates of theft in black areas.  

Actions have consequences, but race hustlers are trying to circumvent this reality.  Some people who have committed crimes and paid their debt to society might deserve a second chance.  Others might not.  Race has little to do with it, and it's not up to business owners to take the risk simply because a worker is a minority.  

By extension, if a certain demographic is far more statistically prone to commit crimes, then businesses must take this into account.  They might not be able to legally admit it, but they can't pretend the dynamic doesn't exist.  The loss of access to employment and to close retail options is in the hands of the community and its residents.  They determine if companies stay or leave.  They determine if they are hired or fired.  

Accountability cannot be avoided forever under the guise of "equity".    

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 15:25

Oklahoma Requests Soda, Candy Be Excluded From Food Stamp Purchases

Zero Hedge -

Oklahoma Requests Soda, Candy Be Excluded From Food Stamp Purchases

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

Oklahoma has become the latest state to request federal permission to exclude soft drinks and candy from the list of items that can be purchased through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), commonly known as food stamps, Gov. Kevin Stitt announced on June 26.

Stitt made the announcement during an event at the state Capitol, alongside Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., as part of his “Make Oklahoma Healthy Again” (MOHA) campaign.

According to Stitt’s office, the campaign is a state-level extension of the national Make America Healthy Again movement championed by President Donald Trump and Kennedy.

“For far too long, we have settled for food that has made us sicker as a nation,” said Stitt. “In Oklahoma, we’re choosing common sense, medical freedom, and personal responsibility.”

Stitt said Oklahoma formally submitted the federal waiver to the Department of Agriculture amid growing bipartisan concern about the link between processed food consumption and chronic illnesses.

The move means Oklahoma joins a growing list of states seeking to remove the sugary items from the federal program that helps more than 42 million low-income Americans pay for food each month.

The governors of Arkansas and Indiana each submitted waivers on April 15, citing efforts to reduce chronic disease and ensure taxpayer funds in federal food assistance programs are used to help low-income Americans afford nutritious food.

Iowa and Nebraska have also submitted similar requests, while West Virginia and Utah have begun the process of pursuing similar changes to their SNAP program.

The American Beverage Association, a trade group whose members include producers and bottlers of soft drinks such as The Coca-Cola Company, PepsiCo, and Keurig Dr Pepper, has consistently opposed the move, writing in an April statement that such waivers “won’t make an ounce of difference on health.”

The group pointed to data showing that obesity has skyrocketed in the past two decades while beverage calories per serving have dropped by 42 percent.

Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show that approximately one in five American children and adolescents are obese, while 40 percent of school-age children and adolescents have at least one chronic health condition.

A 2016 report from the USDA showed that soft drinks were the number one food commodity by expenditure in the SNAP program.

The waivers come after Trump signed an executive order in February establishing the “Make America Healthy Again” commission as part of wider efforts to tackle America’s escalating health crisis.

The commission, which is chaired by Kennedy, is tasked with investigating and addressing the “root causes” of the crisis, with an initial focus on childhood chronic diseases. It must also produce a strategy, based on the findings of its assessment, to improve the health of America’s children.

According to the order, America’s health care system is largely focused on treating chronic illnesses instead of preventing them, which has led to a growing health crisis with serious economic and national security consequences.

As a result, Americans are becoming sicker and plagued by illnesses that the country’s medical system isn’t addressing effectively, the order says.

Speaking at the Oklahoma state Capitol, Kennedy said that if Americans want to drink a bottled soda, “you should be able to have that right,” however, he added that the federal government “should not be paying for it with taxpayer money.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 15:05

Q2 GDP Tracking: Moving Down, Still Wide Range

Calculated Risk -

There will be additional trade related distortions in Q2 boosting GDP.

From BofA:
Since our last weekly publication, our 2Q GDP tracking is down one-tenth to +2.5% q/q saar. [June 27th estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +3.9% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q2 domestic final sales estimate stands at 0%. [June 27th estimate]
And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 2.9 percent on June 27, down from 3.4 percent on June 18. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, an increase in the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth from 2.07 percentage points to 3.49 percentage points was more than offset by a decrease in the nowcasted GDP growth contribution of inventory investment from -0.42 percentage points to -2.22 percentage points. [June 27th estimate]

Newsom Files $787M Lawsuit Against Fox News Alleging It Lied About His Call With Trump

Zero Hedge -

Newsom Files $787M Lawsuit Against Fox News Alleging It Lied About His Call With Trump

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

California Gov. Gavin Newsom has filed a $787 million lawsuit against Fox News claiming the company defamed him through its coverage of a phone call between the governor and President Donald Trump.

“No more lies,” Newsom wrote on social media platform X on June 27, confirming news of the lawsuit. “I’m suing Fox News for $787 million.”

The governor seeks damages for what he claims were lies about a phone call with the president. He has also asked the court for an order to stop Fox News from broadcasting or posting segments that say Newsom lied about the call.

Newsom also sent a letter to Fox News, demanding that it issue a retraction and that host Jesse Walters issue an on-air apology about the call.

If the news company and Walters meet those conditions, Newsom will drop the lawsuit.

Newsom’s latest legal action against Trump was done in a personal capacity, one of his official spokespersons, Brandon Richards, told The Epoch Times.

Rumors of a possible presidential run for Newsom have swirled in recent years, though he has denied any intention of entering the 2028 race. However, the governor hinted at the possibility in an interview with the Wall Street Journal for a profile published on June 10.

“I’m not thinking about running, but it’s a path that I could see unfold,” he said.

Fox News reported earlier this month that Newsom had lied when he claimed he did not get a call from Trump.

Trump shared with Fox News an alleged screenshot of a call the president said he had with the governor about the Los Angeles riots, dated 1:23 a.m. on June 7, that lasted 16 minutes.

“There was no call. Not even a voicemail,” Newson wrote in a June 10 post on X.

Fox News did not immediately return a request for comment.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 14:25

Nestle To Stop Using Artificial Dyes By Mid-2026

Zero Hedge -

Nestle To Stop Using Artificial Dyes By Mid-2026

It's another resounding success for the MAHA movement that has left us thinking why on Earth were these steps not taken any sooner. And of course, we know the answer: the food lobby that RFK and his administration has been hell bent on not taking their cues from. 

Nestlé announced Wednesday it will remove artificial colors from its U.S. food and beverage products by mid-2026, according to CBS.

“We are always looking for different ways to offer great tasting, compelling choices for our consumers. As their diverse dietary preferences and nutritional needs evolve, we evolve with them,” said Nestlé U.S. CEO Marty Thompson. “Serving and delighting people is at the heart of everything we do and every decision that we make,” he added.

The company said it has gradually eliminated synthetic dyes over the past decade, with 90% of its U.S. portfolio already dye-free. However, some products like Nesquik Banana Strawberry milk still contain Red 3.

Nestlé previously pledged to remove artificial dyes in 2015 but did not fully follow through.

CBS writes that other major food companies are making similar moves. Kraft Heinz and General Mills both announced plans last week to eliminate artificial dyes from U.S. products by 2027. General Mills also aims to remove them from cereals and all K–12 school foods by mid-2026.

Public and regulatory pressure is growing. A recent AP-NORC poll shows about two-thirds of Americans support removing dyes and added sugars from processed foods. California and West Virginia have banned artificial dyes in school meals, and Texas will require a new warning label starting in 2027 for foods with ingredients "not recommended for human consumption" in Australia, Canada, the EU, or the U.K.

Federal oversight is increasing as well. In January, just before President Trump took office, Red 3 was banned from food due to cancer concerns. In April, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and FDA Commissioner Marty Makary said the agency would seek to phase out synthetic dyes by the end of 2026, relying largely on voluntary action from the food industry.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 14:05

Loonie Tumbles As Trump Suddenly 'Terminates' All Trade Talks With Canada

Zero Hedge -

Loonie Tumbles As Trump Suddenly 'Terminates' All Trade Talks With Canada

US stocks and the Canadian dollar are sliding after President Trump announces on TruthSocial that the US is terminating all trade discussions with his northern neighbor due to Carney putting a tax on US tech firms (like Europe):

"We have just been informed that Canada, a very difficult Country to TRADE with, including the fact that they have charged our Farmers as much as 400% Tariffs, for years, on Dairy Products, has just announced that they are putting a Digital Services Tax on our American Technology Companies, which is a direct and blatant attack on our Country.

They are obviously copying the European Union, which has done the same thing, and is currently under discussion with us, also.

Based on this egregious Tax, we are hereby terminating ALL discussions on Trade with Canada, effective immediately.

We will let Canada know the Tariff that they will be paying to do business with the United States of America within the next seven day period. Thank you for your attention to this matter!"

The reaction was swift and saw the loonie dumped...

...and US stocks rolled over...

The Canadian digital services tax, which is similar to one implemented by some other countries including the UK, is equal to 3% of the digital services revenue that a firm makes from Canadian users above C$20 million ($14.6 million) in a year.

It would apply to companies including Meta Platforms and Alphabet.

However, Canadian Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne suggested to reporters last week that the digital tax may be renegotiated as part of US-Canada trade discussions.

“Obviously, all of that is something that we’re considering as part of broader discussions that you may have,” he said.

Seems a little short-sighted given the Canadian trade flow...

The Business Council of Canada has come out and said that Carney should drop the Digital Tax... we wonder why...

Well the negotiation is on now!

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 13:57

Iran Missile Attack On US Base Marked 'Largest Patriot Missile Engagement In US History'

Zero Hedge -

Iran Missile Attack On US Base Marked 'Largest Patriot Missile Engagement In US History'

Via The Libertarian Institute

Even after Tehran informed Washington that Iran would execute a symbolic retaliatory strike on the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the US military had to engage in its largest battle using Patriot missiles to date to repel the attack

On Monday, Iran fired 19 ballistic missiles at America’s largest Middle East air base. Most of the missiles were shot down by air defenses. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine told reporters, "We believe that this is the largest single Patriot engagement in US military history, and we were joined in this engagement by the Qatari Patriot crews."

Image: US Department of Defense

While Gen Caine did not disclose how many interceptors were fired, it was likely an expensive operation as each PAC-3 Patriot missile costs $4 million. Additionally, the supply of air defense is becoming increasingly limited due to the ongoing war in the Middle East and Ukraine. 

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the Senate in May, "The Ukrainians asked for air defense systems — Patriot systems, which, frankly, we don’t have."

After Israel launched its aggressive war against Iran, Tel Aviv’s supply of interceptors quickly dwindled. Within five days of the start of the war, multiple outlets reported Tel Aviv was nearly out of Arrow-3 interceptors and only had supplies to run the Iron Dome air defense system for less than two weeks. 

By the end of the short war, Israel was forced to ration its deployment of interceptors, leaving some areas vulnerable to Iranian strikes. After the war, President Donald Trump noted that "Iran hit Israel hard."

Throughout the 12-day conflict, the US aided Israel in shooting down incoming Iranian missiles. The assistance put a strain on the Navy’s supply of interceptors.

Adm. James Kilby, the acting chief of naval operations, said while the US had enough SM-3 interceptors, they were being used “at an alarming rate” to defend Israel. 

The SM-3 can cost between $10 million and $30 million for a single missile.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 13:45

Spain Could Ruin The EU-US Trade Negotiations

Zero Hedge -

Spain Could Ruin The EU-US Trade Negotiations

By Philip Marey, Senior US strategist at Rabobank

Yesterday, the US dollar was under pressure - with EUR/USD peaking at 1.1744 - as speculation about Fed rate cuts increased after comments by Trump and reports in the media that he is considering nominating the next Fed Chair in the coming months. An early nomination could make the nominee the “de facto shadow chair” as his comments (only men are reported to be on the shortlist) would carry a lot of weight in the markets regarding monetary policy beyond May 2026 when Powell’s term expires. For more details on Powell’s succession and the concept of a shadow chair, see our article in International Banker from a few months ago. Meanwhile, there was more pushback against a July rate cut by several Fed speakers yesterday, specifically Daly, Collins, Barkin and Goolsbee.

One day after the NATO summit in The Hague, European leaders met in Brussels again. Now that President Trump has made a clear connection between NATO policy and trade negotiations, European leaders think they have earned trade concessions from the US for their increased contributions to NATO. A major problem is Spain which is not willing to help defend Europe by spending 5% of GDP, but it expects the EU to protect it from US tariffs. Whether other EU countries are happy with this double free riding remains to be seen. They just assigned a lot of money appeasing President Trump (and defending Europe from Russia) but Spain could ruin the EU-US trade negotiations. Yesterday, European leaders discussed trade concessions to the US, including lowering tariffs, reducing non-tariff barriers, buying more US products including LNG, and cooperating with the US to tackle its economic concerns with China.

In other trade news, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that a trade “deal” with China had been signed two days ago, although this appears to be essentially the truce reached last month in Geneva. He added that there are imminent plans to reach agreements with 10 major trading partners.

Meanwhile, the spinning of the Fordow attack is in full force on both sides. While the White House maintains that the nuclear facility was obliterated, Iran is downplaying the impact and both sides claim victory. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Dan Caine gave a joint press conference providing more details about the air strike, but they offered no new evidence about the effectiveness of the attack.

Yesterday, the Senate Committee on Finance issued a statement that the proposed introduction of Section 899 to the Internal Revenue Code would be removed from the One Big Beautiful Bill because of a forthcoming international tax agreement announced by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Section 899 would have introduced retaliatory taxes on foreign companies from countries that impose “unfair taxes” on US companies, such as undertaxed profits rules, digital services taxes, and diverted profits taxes.

“We applaud President Trump and his team for protecting the interests of American workers and businesses after years of congressional Republicans sounding the alarm on the Biden Administration’s unilateral global tax surrender under Pillar 2.  Reaching a joint understanding with the G7 means the U.S. can reclaim tens of billions of dollars that had been ceded from our tax base by Democrats’ America-Last policy. At the request of Secretary Bessent and in light of this joint understanding to preserve U.S. tax sovereignty and allow U.S. tax laws to co-exist with the Pillar 2 regime, we will remove proposed tax code Section 899 from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and we look forward to active engagement with Treasury on these important issues. We are committed to restoring Americans’ confidence in our representative government by putting America first.  Congressional Republicans stand ready to take immediate action if the other parties walk away from this deal or slow walk its implementation.”

The last sentence of the statement can be seen as a threat to foreign governments that the US Congress could still adopt Section 899 if the new international tax agreement is violated.

Meanwhile, progress of the One Big Beautiful Bill in the Senate was dealt a blow by the Senate parliamentarian. The Senate’s rules arbiter decided that several spending cuts proposed in the bill did not qualify for the reconciliation process that allows the bill to be passed with a simple majority. Republicans hope to remedy this by changing the wording and are still sticking to their self-imposed July 4 deadline to get the bill to President Trump’s desk. However, if the Senate parliamentarian is not going to be convinced, they may have to drop these spending cuts which would make it harder to reach their budget targets and meet the Independence Day deadline.

Day Ahead

In politics, the US Senate intended to start voting today on the One Big Beautiful Bill. However, this could be delayed by the procedural clash with the Senate parliamentarian. Over a month ago, the House of Representatives passed its version with a narrow 215-214 vote. When it comes to a vote, the margins in the Senate are also small. There are 53 Republican senators, but libertarian Rand Paul is expected to vote no because of the debt limit increase included in the bill. Other fiscal hawks, in particular Ron Johnson, Rick Scott, and Mike Lee are demanding more savings in the bill, such as bigger spending cuts and a faster expiration of clean-energy tax credits. However, this is a difficult balancing act for Senate Majority Leader John Thune because at the other end of the Republican spectrum, the “Medicaid moderates”, in particular Thom Tillis, Josh Hawley and Susan Collins think the bill’s Medicaid cuts are too deep. Lisa Murkowski, Jerry Moran and Jim Justice are also considered to be part of this group. Meanwhile, there is disagreement about the increase in the cap (to $40,000) on how much taxpayers can deduct from the amount they owe in federal taxes state and local taxes (SALT). This was negotiated by House Republicans from high tax states, such as California, New Jersey and New York. However, many Republican senators want to keep this at the level of the TCJA ($10,000).

Once the Senate has passed its version, the House could accept the adjusted version early next week and send the bill to President Trump who can then sign it into law by July 4, or reject it. However, the self-imposed Independence Day deadline is symbolic and there is no X-date until August at the earliest and the fiscal cliff from the income tax provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is at end of the year. So a modest delay would have no major consequences other than ruining Trump’s good mood after getting the royal treatment at the NATO summit in The Hague.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 13:05

SoftBank's Masayoshi Son "Ready To Hand Over Reins" As He Goes "All-In" On AI Superintelligence

Zero Hedge -

SoftBank's Masayoshi Son "Ready To Hand Over Reins" As He Goes "All-In" On AI Superintelligence

Masayoshi Son is positioning SoftBank to become the "world's top platformer" for Artificial Superintelligence (ASI), aiming to control the core architecture, compute infrastructure, and strategic partnerships that will enable ASI. Yet even as Son charts SoftBank's course for the 2030s, the 67-year-old says he's preparing to hand over the reins—though he won't name a successor until the last minute.

Bloomberg reports SoftBank's Son is preparing to step aside and will hand over leadership to an internal successor...

"I'm mentally prepared for anything, and am ready to hand over the reins at any time," Son told shareholders at a meeting in Tokyo earlier today. He added that he won't name the individual until the last minute to avoid fostering arrogance. "It's a delicate balance."

He revealed that SoftBank now controls key AI chip architecture and plans to invest up to $30 billion in OpenAI. The group also recently acquired Graphcore and is in talks to buy Ampere Computing.

Son emphasized the importance of controlling AI infrastructure in a "winner-take-all" era, anchored by SoftBank's stake in chip designer Arm. He discussed plans to 'Make America Great Again' by establishing an Arizona hub modeled after China's Shenzhen, potentially in partnership with TSMC, which is investing heavily in the U.S.

"We want to become the world's top platformer for ASI," he said, adding, "I'm all in." 

Son didn't disclose a specific reason or timeline for stepping down, but with SoftBank's ability to fund bold AI bets by heavily relying on Japanese retail investors, installing younger leadership ahead of the 2030s may be a strategic move to strengthen confidence and align with a new generation of investors. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 12:45

Pages