Pump Baby, Pump! EIA Thinks OPEC Can Produce Far More Than Anyone Expected

Authored by Julianne Geiger via OilPrice.com,

The U.S. Energy Information Administration quietly rewrote a key assumption about the global oil market this week: OPEC can produce more oil than previously thought.

In its December Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA updated how it defines and estimates OPEC crude oil production capacity. The result was a material upward revision.

The agency now estimates OPEC’s effective production capacity was higher by about 220,000 barrels per day in 2024, 370,000 bpd in 2025, and 310,000 bpd in 2026 compared with its earlier assessments.

The change didn’t come from new drilling or surprise barrels. It came from a rethink of what “capacity” actually means.

The EIA refined two concepts it uses to assess supply risk: maximum sustainable capacity and effective production capacity. Maximum sustainable capacity is the theoretical upper limit a producer could reach within a year if everything runs smoothly. Effective capacity is more practical — the amount of oil that could realistically be brought online within 90 days and sustained without damaging fields or infrastructure. That second number is what the EIA uses to judge how much oil is actually available to respond to market shocks.

By tightening those definitions and reassessing disruptions, the agency concluded that OPEC’s buffer is larger than previously assumed. Because actual OPEC production estimates were left mostly unchanged, the revisions flowed almost directly into higher estimates of spare capacity.

This spare capacity serves as the oil market’s shock absorber.

When it’s thin (or thought to be thin), prices react violently to wars, sanctions, hurricanes, or refinery outages. When it’s fat, geopolitical risk carries less pricing power. In its latest update, the EIA is effectively telling the market that supply is less fragile than many traders believed.

This complicates OPEC+ messaging.

The group has leaned heavily on the narrative of tight capacity to justify production discipline. The EIA’s recalculation doesn’t blow that argument up, but it does weaken it.

As the EIA tells it, the market may not be as close to the supply edge as it thought. And that’s not a bullish message.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/22/2025 - 07:20

Beijing Condemns Trump's Gunboat Diplomacy After China-Bound Tanker Seizure

Beijing has condemned the U.S. interception of sanctioned crude tankers off the Venezuelan coast after a China-bound oil tanker was seized on Saturday. Beijing said Venezuela has the right to conduct trade with other countries.

Reuters cited China's foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian at a regular press briefing, who said the US seizure of another country's tanker was a serious violation of international law. Jian added that China opposes all "unilateral and illegal" sanctions.

On Saturday, the U.S. Coast Guard seized the Centuries, which was loaded with 1.8 million barrels of sanctioned Venezuelan crude and was flying under the false name "Crag." The tanker was bound for China.

China is the largest buyer of Venezuelan crude, but Venezuelan oil accounts for only about 4% of China's total crude imports.

Reuters reports that data this year show Venezuelan crude exports to China range from 400,000 to 580,000 barrels per day, depending on the period and shipping patterns.

A White House spokesperson told Reuters that the Centuries was a "falsely flagged vessel" and carried sanctioned oil that was part of Venezuela's shadow fleet.

So far, the US has seized two sanctioned tankers. The first, VLCC Skipper, earlier this month. Skipper is set to be unloaded in the coming days at the Galveston Offshore Lightering Area (GOLA). After Saturday's seizure, news hit late afternoon Sunday of US forces in pursuit of yet another tanker.

All of this fits within the Trump administration's gunboat diplomacy foreign policy strategy, which is designed to accelerate regime instability in Caracas while materially weakening Cuba; the core objective is to disrupt financial flows, sever funding channels, and allow second- and third-order effects to follow.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/22/2025 - 06:55

Freedom Lovers Aren't 'Fascists'

Authored by J.B. Shurk via American Thinker,

There’s nothing ‘right-wing’ about defending the Bill of Rights.

Being called “right-wing” or “fascist” is detestable. The label implies a preference for dictatorship, authoritarianism, and government supremacy over personal freedom. The exact opposite is true. I would describe myself as a supporter of autarchism in the sense that we should rule ourselves and not be ruled by others.

As someone who believes strongly in individual liberty, self-reliance, and self-government, I distrust all repositories of power — whether such power resides in government, corporations, or social institutions. As Lord Acton advised: “Power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” In my estimation, nothing in this physical world can be trusted with power for very long. Regrettably, all forms of power eventually become abusive.

Nineteenth-century diplomat and political writer John O’Sullivan (the man who coined the phrase “manifest destiny” in 1845) helped to popularize a sentiment shared by other luminaries of his time such as Henry David Thoreau, Ralph Waldo Emerson, and Mark Twain: “The best government is that which governs least.”

Government is Leviathan. It knows only how to grow its size and the number of its tentacles until it is capable of wrapping its predacious powers around everyone and everything.

Emissaries of Big Government globalism speak of government as a benevolent “friend” and “parent” whose job is to “protect” and “take care of” the people. But government is none of those things. Government is coercion. It is force, including the threat of lethal force. It robs people of their labor in the form of taxes. It presumes to know what is best for everyone. It insists on telling people how to use their property and how to live their lives. It intrudes into family households and inserts itself between parents and children. Whereas a friend will fight beside you and a parent will sacrifice everything for your well-being, governments start wars recklessly, sacrifice citizens callously, and ignore the pleas of those suffering.

The German Nazis, Italian fascists, Soviet communists, and Chinese Maoists were all Big Government socialists who justified murdering their citizens for the good of the government. Government is not a “friend” or a “parent.” It is a homicidal maniac that society tries to keep somewhat restrained lest it indulge its basest instinct: to kill everyone in its path.

Government does not “protect” people. It uses people to its advantage. Government does not “take care of” people. It bullies them, steals from them, and keeps them divided against each other. Anybody praising the “virtues” of Big Government is nothing more than a macabre salesman for institutional slavery, indemnified violence, and legalized theft.

Those of us who identify as liberty lovers and defenders of freedom harbor profound distrust of government. It is therefore galling when Big Government leftists, socialists, globalists, Marxists, and even outright communists (especially those exercising power as so-called “journalists” working for multinational corporate news organizations) call us “right-wing.”

What is “right-wing” about wanting government bureaucrats to just leave us the hell alone? I try to put myself in the small wingtips of someone such as CNN’s Brian Stelter. When I say, “I want government out of my life,” how does he hear, “Right-wing fascism is overtaking America”? Is Brian obtuse? Maliciously dishonest? Both?

I find it perplexing to hear Stelter, Jake Tapper, and their fellow ideological clones on cable news describe those of us who most ardently defend the Bill of Rights as somehow being threats to American freedom. Look around the universe of political writers today, and you will find that almost all of the staunchest advocates for free speech, freedom of religion, the right to bear arms, and protections from warrantless government searches and mass surveillance are Americans whom Stelter, Tapper, and their cohorts would describe as “right-wing.”

On the other hand, the very leftists and globalists whom CNN anchors adore are daily calling for mass censorship in the name of fighting “disinformation” and “hate speech.” Stelter has made an entire career out of playing a “truth-telling hall monitor” who believes he is empowered to tell social media companies what should be stricken from public debate. He has explicitly called for a “harm reduction model” of permissible speech by illogically claiming that “reducing a liar’s reach is not the same as censoring freedom of speech. Freedom of speech is different than freedom of reach.” He defends censorship in the name of “freedom” because he expects to be the corporate news umpire who gets to decide what is true or false.

Could there possibly be anything more authoritarian than CNN personalities claiming the authority to declare official truths?

Nonetheless, CNN ignores its own assaults on free speech and instead decries “right-wingers” who believe parents should have a say over whether elementary school libraries include books on “transgenderism,” abortion, sexual fetishes, and pornography. CNN’s talking heads even call those of us who oppose “drag queen story hour” for kindergartners “Christian nationalists” — as if trying to be a moral person, a faithful Christian, a protective parent, and a patriotic American were the hallmarks of “fascism.”

Effective communication between human beings is difficult even when people speak the same language, share the same culture, and enjoy similar beliefs. When politicians and “journalists” defame as “fascists” those of us who fight for expansive personal freedom and against government tyranny, they rob society of peaceful public discourse and light the fuse of future violence.

Those in the “journalism” business who use words to sell fear and provoke bloodshed know exactly what they’re doing. When you demonize your political enemies long enough, some eventually get murdered. Charlie Kirk wasn’t the first, and he will not be the last. After all, there is an entire army of fascist Antifa terrorists who hunt “right-wingers” for sport. Or is that too much truth for Stelter’s “harm reduction model” to permit me to say out loud?

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/22/2025 - 06:30

Cocoa Prices Face Worst Annual Collapse In Six Decades As Goldman Sees "Tailwinds" For Hershey

After nearly tripling last year and soaring to a record $13,000 a ton, cocoa futures are on track for their worst-ever annual decline, based on data going back more than six decades.

Cocoa futures in New York are set for a 50% decline if losses persist through the end of the year.

Prices are currently trading around $5,845 as of Friday's close, a stark difference from the $12,000 to $13,000 range in late 2024 and early 2025.

The cocoa surge sparked a price shock and crushed margins for major food companies that relied heavily on chocolate production. Those companies include Nestlé, Hershey, and many others.

In return, supermarket prices for chocolate rose, but now Wall Street analysts don't expect the latest declines to translate into cheaper candy until the second half of 2026.

"The prices that the chocolate industry is currently working with are very high and painful," said Jonathan Parkman, head of agricultural sales at commodities brokerage Marex Group in London, as quoted by Bloomberg. "It's going to take us quite a while to work through that."

Swiss-Belgian cocoa processor Barry Callebaut has noted that supply risks in West Africa, the world's top-growing region, persist due to underinvestment, climate stress, and disease. The processor said chocolate was "far too cheap for far too long."

Lambertz, one of Germany's oldest confectioners, has enough cocoa supplies to last through the midpoint of 2026, after securing them when prices were high, said owner Hermann Bühlbecker. "As far as I can remember, there has never been such a price explosion," he said.

To cope with the price shock, many brands have responded with shrinkflation and reformulation, such as lighter bars or reduced cocoa content. Companies like Mondelez have made significant adjustments to formulation.

Last week, Bonnie Herzog, managing director and senior consumer analyst at Goldman Sachs, highlighted easing pressures in the cocoa market that could produce "tailwinds" for candy and junk food companies:

Pockets of easing commodity pressure to aid earnings growth for some. While input cost inflation has meaningfully moderated for Staples at large over the past couple of years, certain pockets (e.g., cocoa, proteins) were still inflationary and weighed on earnings. As prices continue to come down meaningfully from peak levels, we would expect benefits from an easing cost environment to aid earnings growth. However, spot rates suggest aluminum will likely see the highest inflation in 2026. Moreover, oil/natural gas prices remain volatile owing to ongoing geopolitical tensions, which, along with pressure from tariffs, could further limit the extent of gross margin expansion ahead. Ultimately, we believe the input cost environment will be much more accommodative for our Staples universe next year, which along with an increased focus on productivity (as supply chains and service levels have normalized), should support continued margin expansion and reinvestments ahead. We highlight HSY as best placed to benefit from this dynamic, where we expect gross margin expansion to drive EPS growth in 2026. We also highlight potential tailwinds for MDLZ, HRL, and SFD.

Herzog noted where inflation and deflation trends linger in the commodity market this year:

Hershey versus cocoa futures (inverted)...

Conversations so far are that any price relief for chocolate at the supermarket won't show up until the 2H26. We're watching Hershey next year...

Herzog also told clients to buy nicotine, energy drink, candy, and beauty stocks heading into 2026 as a stronger consumer backdrop emerges.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/22/2025 - 05:45

Trump Announces $1.3 Billion In Sales Of 'Gold Card' Visas Since Dec. 10

President Donald Trump announced Dec. 19 that his administration has sold more than $1.3 billion worth of “Trump Gold Cards,” a new immigration program offering expedited residency to high-skilled foreign talent, with proceeds going toward paying down the national debt.

In remarks to the press, Trump said that sales had exceeded $1.3 billion and described the Gold Card as a “green card on steroids.”

He said the option would allow companies to retain graduates from elite institutions, such as Harvard and Wharton, who might otherwise have to go back to their native countries upon graduation.

“They graduate from the top schools,” Trump said. “These people want to hire them. Now you’re able to buy a card and you’re able to keep people in the country.”

Trump highlighted how his immigration policy focuses on securing top talent and curbing illegal immigration.

“Under the Biden administration, 25 million people came in, and they came from prisons and mental institutions, and they were drug dealers and all sorts of people came in that shouldn’t be here. They came from the jails,” he said.

President Donald Trump holds up a "Trump Gold Card" as he makes an announcement from the Roosevelt Room of the White House on Dec. 19, 2025. Brendan Smialowski /AFP via Getty Images

As Kimberly Hayek details below for The Epoch Times, the Gold Card allows businesses to purchase the visas for foreign workers, enabling them to stay indefinitely with work rights. The visa costs $1 million in the form of a donation to the U.S. federal government.

The program, which has been challenged legally, began accepting applications on Dec. 10.

Trump launched the Gold Card in September with an executive order and instituted a $100,000 fee for H-1B visa applicants. The H1B fee exempts current holders and renewals, according to the White House.

Trump first proposed the Gold Card visas in February, floating a $5 million price tag for residency and a path to citizenship.

“Wealthy people will be coming into our country,” he said when he proposed the program. The administration launched a dedicated website in June.

When launching the immigration Gold Card program, Trump said it would “reduce our taxes greatly and hopefully bring some great people into our country.”

Payments go straight to the U.S. Treasury. Howard Lutnick, secretary of commerce, was instrumental in launching the program, he said.

Twenty states, however, filed a lawsuit against the $100,000 H-1B fee, arguing it goes beyond executive authority.

Meanwhile, proponents say the program fixes longstanding issues with the H1-B lottery system.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/22/2025 - 04:15

Can The Dark Ages Return?

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via VictoreHanson.com,

Western civilization arose in the 8th century B.C. Greece. Some 1,500 city-states emerged from a murky, illiterate 400-year-old Dark Age. That chaos followed the utter collapse of the palatial culture of Mycenaean Greece.

But what reemerged were constitutional government, rationalism, liberty, freedom of expression, self-critique, and free markets—what we know now as the foundation of a unique Western civilization.

The Roman Republic inherited and enhanced the Greek model.

For a millennium, the Republic and subsequent Empire spread Western culture, eventually to be inseparable from Christianity.

From the Atlantic to the Persian Gulf and from the Rhine and Danube to the Sahara, there were a million square miles of safety, prosperity, progress, and science—until the collapse of the Western Roman Empire in the 5th century AD.

What followed was a second European Dark Age, roughly from 500 to 1000 AD.

Populations declined. Cities eroded. Roman roads, aqueducts, and laws crumbled.

In place of the old Roman provinces arose tribal chieftains and fiefdoms.

Whereas once Roman law had protected even rural people in remote areas, during the Dark Ages, walls and stone were the only means of keeping safe.

Finally, at the end of the 11th century, the old values and know-how of the complex world of Graeco-Roman civilization gradually reemerged.

The slow rebirth was later energized by the humanists and scientists of the Renaissance, Reformation, and eventually the 200-year European Enlightenment of the 17th and 18th centuries.

Contemporary Americans do not believe that our current civilization could self-destruct a third time in the West, followed by an impoverished and brutal Dark Age.

But what caused these prior returns to tribalism and loss of science, technology, and the rule of law?

Historians cite several causes of societal collapse—and today they are hauntingly familiar.

Like people, societies age. Complacency sets in.

The hard work and sacrifice that built the West also creates wealth and leisure. Such affluence is taken for granted by later generations. What created success is eventually ignored—or even mocked.

Expenditures and consumption outpace income, production, and investment.

Child-rearing, traditional values, strong defense, love of country, religiosity, meritocracy, and empirical education fade away.

The middle class of autonomous citizens disappear. Society bifurcates between a few lords and many peasants.

Tribalism—the pre-civilizational bonds based on race, religion, or shared appearance—remerge.

National government fragments into regional and ethnic enclaves.

Borders disappear. Mass migrations are unchecked. The age-old bane of anti-Semitism reappears.

The currency inflates, losing its value and confidence. General crassness in behavior, speech, dress, and ethics replaces prior norms.

Transportation, communications, and infrastructure all decline.

The end is near when the necessary medicine is seen as worse than the disease.

Such was life around 450 AD in Western Europe.

The contemporary West might raise similar red flags.

Fertility has dived well below 2.0 in almost every Western country.

Public debt is nearing unsustainable levels. The dollar and euro have lost much of their purchasing power.

It is more common in universities to damn than honor the gifts of the Western intellectual past.

Yet, the reading and analytical skills of average Westerners, and Americans in particular, steadily decline.

Can the general population even operate or comprehend the ever-more sophisticated machines and infrastructure that an elite group of engineers and scientists creates?

The citizen loses confidence in an often corrupt elite, who neither will protect their nations’ borders nor spend sufficient money on collective defense.

The cures are scorned.

Do we dare address spiraling deficits, unsustainable debt, and corrupt bureaucracies and entitlements?

Even mention of reform is smeared as “greedy,” “racist,” “cruel,” or even “fascist” and “Nazi.”

In our times, relativism replaces absolute values in the eerie replay of the latter Roman Empire.

Critical legal theory claims crimes are not really crimes.

Critical race theory postulates that all of society is guilty of insidious bias, demanding reparations in cash and preferences in admission and hiring.

Salad-bowl tribalism replaces assimilation, acculturation, and integration of the old melting pot.

Despite a far wealthier, far more leisured, and far more scientific contemporary America, was it safer to walk in New York or take the subway in 1960 than now?

Are high school students better at math now or 70 years ago?

Are movies and television more entertaining and ennobling in 1940 or now?

Are nuclear, two-parent families the norm currently or in 1955?

We are blessed to live longer and healthier lives than ever—even as the larger society around us seems to teeter.

Yet, the West historically is uniquely self-introspective and self-critical.

Reform and Renaissance historically are more common than descents back into the Dark Ages.

But the medicine for decline requires unity, honesty, courage, and action—virtues now in short supply on social media, amid popular culture, and among the political class.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/21/2025 - 23:20

Burnt-Out US Air Traffic Controllers Rerouting Their Careers To Australia

In a year in which they endured chronic understaffing, 60-hour weeks, uneven shifts and even having to work without a paycheck for a stretch, many US air traffic controllers are re-evaluating their careers, with a growing number chasing happiness on the other side of the world -- in Australia. 

According to a Wall Street Journal report on the phenomenon, these controllers aren't chasing more money. Indeed, some of the controllers who've taken the leap were happy to take a lower salary in exchange for less on-the-job stress and a better work-life balance. One of them is Austin Brewis, a 29-year-old who gave up a $145,000 salary at an air traffic facility in Illinois for a $137,000 one in Sydney.

Three-meter-high, corrugated-iron kangaroos adjacent to the main runway at Canberra Airport (Canberra Times)

Brewis told the Journal that 60-hour workweeks had worn him down. More than 41% of US controllers work 10 hours a day for six days straight, according to the National Air Traffic Controllers Association. It's not just the high number of hours -- Brewis worked them in staggered schedules that have start and finish times changing from day to day. Chasing three-day breaks to enjoy meaningful relief from the heavy hour-load, many controllers take a "2-2-1" schedule. As the Journal explained in an earlier article: 

Controllers work two swing shifts, two day shifts, and one midnight shift. The second day shifts ends at 2 p.m. and the subsequent midnight shift begins at 10 p.m., just eight hours later. Such a schedule disrupts circadian rhythms, creating fatigue on the midnight shift.... 2-2-1 has long been called "the rattler," since it can come back and bite the controller, degrading his performance. 

“That grinds you down after years of doing it,” Brewis said. The contrast Down Under is stark -- with the average Australian controller's work-week spanning just 36 hours. Heightening the attraction for younger controllers is a guarantee of having some weekends off each year. Brewis said he'd have had to put at least 10 years under his belt before he'd routinely have weekends off in America, where that pleasure is driven by seniority. 

A woman in a control tower in Brisbane, Australia (Courier Mail) 

“It’s absolutely disgusting how much better their lifestyles are than ours," air traffic controller Chris Dickinson told the Journal. After 13 years controlling US airspace, he's now working in Sydney. He said concerns he had about anxiety or depression have evaporated, and he's shed 20 extra pounds too. 

In an ominous indication that Australia could become a chronic driver of controller attrition in America, when Brewis stepped into an Australian classroom for his entry training earlier this year, he found that 8 of his 10 classmates were Americans. Government-owned Airservices Australia says it isn't setting out to poach Americans from the FAA. However, of 100 controllers it expects to bring on board this year, 36 are Americans. “Qualified controllers are welcome to apply from any country,” a spokesman said. 

While those kind of numbers aren't striking in the context of a US controller force that exceeds 13,750, the chronically-undermanned FAA doesn't need any more head-count headwinds. By the National Air Traffic Controllers Association's math, the FAA is operating with a 3,800-controller shortage. 

That's not just a burden for air traffic controllers and FAA bureaucrats, it's a worrisome state of affairs for the flying public, which has seen too many scary headlines about disasters, near-disasters and mishaps in recent months: 

• Reagan Tower Reportedly Understaffed When Army Helicopter Collided With Passenger Jet
• Another Near-Disaster At DC Airport: Delta Jet Narrowly Misses USAF T-38
• Mapping Every Understaffed Air Traffic Control Tower In The US

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/21/2025 - 22:45

2 More Heritage Foundation Board Members Resign

Authored by Emel Akan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

WASHINGTON—Two more members of conservative think tank The Heritage Foundation’s Board of Trustees, Shane McCullar and Abby Spencer Moffat, resigned Dec. 16, citing concerns over the organization’s direction and approach to combating anti-Semitism.

Exterior view of the Heritage Foundation building in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 18, 2025. Terri Wu/The Epoch Times

In a statement, Moffat said that leaving the board was a difficult but necessary decision.

“Heritage’s handling of recent challenges reveals a drift from the principles that once defined its leadership,” she said.

“When an institution hesitates to confront harmful ideas and allows lapses in judgment to stand, it forfeits the moral authority on which its influence depends.”

Moffat is recognized as one of the most powerful women in philanthropy and has been a major donor to the think tank through the Diana Davis Spencer Foundation.

In 2023, the foundation announced a $25 million commitment, one of the largest gifts in the think tank’s 50-year history.

McCullar raised similar concerns in his statement.

“No institution that hesitates to condemn anti-Semitism and hatred—or that gives a platform to those who spread them—can credibly claim to uphold the vision that once made the Heritage Foundation the world’s most respected conservative think-tank,” McCullar said.

“I leave with respect for the Heritage Foundation’s past, but I cannot support the course it has chosen for its future.”

Another board member, Robert P. George, a Princeton University professor, resigned last month, citing the same reason.

The controversy erupted after Heritage President Kevin Roberts defended Tucker Carlson’s interview with controversial live streamer Nick Fuentes, known for his anti-Israel and anti-Semitic views.

In his Oct. 30 video commenting on Carlson’s interview, Roberts said that “Christians can critique the state of Israel without being anti-Semitic.”

Roberts also said that the think-tank would not bow to the “venomous coalition” that is attacking and trying to “cancel” Carlson over the Fuentes interview.

Roberts later offered an apology, expressing his regret for the video he posted.

“I made a mistake, and I let you down, and I let down this institution. And I am sorry for that. Period. Full Stop,” Roberts said in a video from the foundation’s staff meeting, which The Washington Beacon first published.

“I didn’t know much about this Fuentes guy—still don’t, which underscores the mistake,” Roberts said.

Roberts told staff that he was willing to resign but felt a “moral obligation” to address the situation.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/21/2025 - 22:10

Rand Paul Calls Partial Release Of Epstein Files A 'Big Mistake' For Trump

During an interview on ABC’s This Week with ABC’s Jonathan Karl on Sunday, Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky delivered a blunt warning about the administration’s handling of the Epstein records, echoing concerns raised by Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who has been relentless on the issue.

Massie forced the release vote and has accused Attorney General Pam Bondi of violating the law by slow-walking and limiting disclosure. 

Paul did not dispute the core of that argument.

Instead, he went further, laying out exactly why half-measures on Epstein are political poison.

“I’ve supported transparency on the Epstein files from the beginning,” Paul said. “I’ve voted repeatedly to release them. I think it’s a good idea.”

Paul explained why that approach is doomed to fail.

“I think that trust in government is at a low ebb, and that people need to trust that justice is the same whether you’re rich or poor,” he said.

“And people tend to believe that some rich people got off scot-free in this — in the Epstein case, the Epstein files.”

 Despite the Democrats’ attempts to weaponize the release of the files against Trump, the fact remains that the Biden administration sat on the files for four years—a decision that former Vice President Kamala Harris defends—despite endless rhetoric about transparency. Trump returned to office promising real transparency, and even Trump’s allies believe the administration has failed to live up to its promise fully.

Paul made clear that the administration’s fundamental mistake came when officials hyped the release and then appeared to back away once the spotlight intensified.

“I think it’s a big mistake,” Paul said.

“Look, the administration has struggled for months and months with something they initially ginned up and then sort of tried to tamp down.”

 Paul warned that partial disclosure guarantees prolonged political fallout.

“So, any evidence or any kind of indication that there’s not a full reveal on this, this will just plague them for months and months more,” he said.

He’s right. Democrats have been insinuating for months that the Epstein files would somehow incriminate Trump, despite zero evidence. 

Paul offered simple advice that should not require a Senate seat to understand.

“So, my suggestion would be — give up all the information, release it,” he said.

“What’s going to happen to people if they don’t? That will play out over time. But my suggestion to them is be transparent and release everything the law requires of you.”

When Trump signed the Epstein Files Transparency Act, and the documents failed to deliver the left’s long-promised bombshell, Democrats pivoted to conspiracy theories and bureaucratic excuses. For example, Democrats pounced when a photo from the Epstein files was briefly removed from the online cache of Epstein-related material. This led to conspiracy theories that the Department of Justice was trying to protect Trump. 

In an appearance on NBC’s Meet the Press, Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche discussed the photo and the reason for the redactions in the files.

Blanche explained the removal had “nothing to do with President Trump” and was instead prompted by concerns over victim privacy after officials realized the images contained identifiable women. He stressed that DOJ policy allows victims, their lawyers, or advocacy groups to request that any document or photo identifying them be taken down and reviewed, a process he said explained the temporary disappearance of the materials. 

"Well, you can see in that photo, there’s photographs of women," Blanche said. "And so we learned after releasing that photograph that there were concerns about those, about those women, and the fact that we had put that photo up. So we pulled that photo down."

Blanche also noted that numerous photos of Trump with Jeffrey Epstein have long been public, and that Trump himself has acknowledged socializing with Epstein in the 1990s and early 2000s before cutting ties with him years before Epstein’s 2006 arrest. Given that history, Blanche dismissed as “laughable” the notion that the department would selectively hide a single image to protect the president when “dozens” of similar photos are already in circulation. 

.@DAGToddBlanche: "The absurdity of us pulling down a photo — a single photo — because President Trump was in it is laughable, and the fact that everybody is trying to act like that's the case is a reflection of their true motivation." pic.twitter.com/9u7ZjgL4m7

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) December 21, 2025

Democrats have failed to produce a promised “smoking gun” linking Trump to Epstein’s crimes despite years of access to the files under the Biden administration, and are now seizing on procedural moves in the document release to sustain conspiracy theories. Nevertheless, if Republicans want to prove they mean what they say, the path forward is obvious. Release everything required by law. Let the facts land where they may. The longer Washington drags its feet, the louder the suspicion grows, and the harder it becomes to argue that this time is different.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/21/2025 - 21:35

DOJ Seeking Appeals On Dismissals Of Criminal Cases Against James Comey, Letitia James

Authored by Troy Myers via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) is appealing the dismissal of a pair of criminal cases against New York Attorney General Letitia James and former FBI Director James Comey, according to new court documents filed on Friday.

(Left) New York Attorney General Letitia James leaves the Walter E. Hoffman United States Courthouse following an arraignment hearing in Norfolk, Va., on Oct. 24, 2025. (Right) James Comey, former FBI director, speaks at the Barnes & Noble Upper West Side in New York City on May 19, 2025. Win McNamee, Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

James was indicted in October by a grand jury with charges of bank fraud and making false statements to a financial institution. Comey was charged in September with lying to and obstructing Congress during his testimony in 2020 about the FBI’s investigation into false claims of ties between President Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign and Russia.

Both had pleaded not guilty, and their cases were thrown out in late November.

The newest appeals by the DOJ mark the latest move in what’s been a series of unsuccessful legal actions taken against the New York attorney general specifically.

James’s original case was dismissed in late November after U.S. District Judge Cameron Currie ruled that former Trump lawyer Lindsey Halligan’s appointment by the president as interim U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia was unlawful.

The judge tossed Comey’s case for the same reason that Halligan’s appointment violated laws restricting the DOJ from naming top prosecutors without a Senate confirmation. Halligan had presented Comey’s case to a federal grand jury by herself five days before the statute of limitations would expire on the former FBI director’s testimony he gave to Congress.

In Currie’s Nov. 24 decision, she wrote both James and Comey’s cases were a “unique, if not unprecedented, situation where an unconstitutionally appointed prosecutor” used powers that she “did not lawfully possess.”

The DOJ vowed to continue pursuing charges.

Since the case was dismissed, DOJ prosecutors attempted twice this month to secure a new indictment against James, but a grand jury refused to bring charges both times. The New York official has repeatedly claimed the prosecution against her is “baseless.”

In the latest legal filings, the DOJ is appealing James and Comey’s case dismissals, along with several other actions, including the judge’s decision that found Halligan’s appointment and her signing of the indictments unlawful.

James’s indictment alleged that she lied about her plans for a Virginia home, for which she obtained loan terms that would have saved her approximately $19,000 over the life of the loan. Her lawyer said the indictments against James were a “mockery of our justice system” and accused the president of “political vendetta.”

The Justice Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the appeals.

The attorneys for both Comey and James also did not respond to a request for comment on the latest development in their cases.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/21/2025 - 21:00

Somali 'Medicaid Mogul' Accused Of Looting Maine Taxpayers, Family Allegedly Put Bounty On Reporter

If you thought the alleged Medicaid fraud in Minnesota by Somalis, which federal prosecutors say could reach $9 billion, was insane, wait until you read the latest report from The Maine Wire: the head of a local nonprofit is accused of lashing out at a local journalist over an investigation, while members of his family allegedly put a bounty on the head of a journalist in Somalia for sharing the reporting.

Related note: this picture has never appeared in one of the major newspapers in Maine. I’m not sure if any other outlet has published it. pic.twitter.com/dVQ2j1cAgc

— Steve Robinson (@SteveRob) December 21, 2025

Earlier this month, Abdullahi Ali, the Executive Director of Health Services contractor Gateway Community Services, was accused of ripping off taxpayers.

Public forensic investigation into Gateway Community Services has revealed this... 

NewsNation spoke with a whistleblower who spilled the beans: false records were filed for services that were never provided...

A former Gateway employee, Christopher Bernardini, said the nonprofit was reimbursed with tax dollars from Maine's Medicaid program and later with federal tax dollars from the Paycheck Protection Program.

While heading up the nonprofit in Maine, Ali was also running for President of Jubbaland in Africa. He boasted to a Kenyan media outlet about how he helped raise funds for the Jubaland Somali army to buy guns and bullets.

Here’s another video of Medicaid mogul Abdullahi Ali, a top ally of Gov. Janet Mills and Shenna Bellows, talking about how he plans to use the militia he bankrolled in southern Somalia.

Gateway Community Services said it was racist to describe him as a “wannabe warlord.” pic.twitter.com/dkhbGgzROl

— Steve Robinson (@SteveRob) December 20, 2025

Main Wire's Steve Robinson pointed out that Ali "threatened to murder a journalist in Somalia who shared our reporting."

Robinson continued:

Gateway Community Services CEO Abdullahi Ali yesterday attacked me personally, and now his fellow clan members — his son and cousin — are threatening to murder a journalist in Somalia who shared our reporting. Why does Gov. Janet Mills continue to fund this organization with MaineCare dollars and no-bid contracts? And why are Democrats cravenly smearing the character of anyone who exposes fraud or calls out corruption?

Abdullahi Ali's son and cousin are openly placing bounties on a Somali journalist's head and calling for his killing. All because they've helped shine light on Ali's migrant agency over-billing MaineCare (~$800k per DHHS) and the fraud allegations made against his company. Ali's former employee has made credible and detailed allegations of systematic fraud. This employee has shown great courage by revealing how Ali allegedly directed his company to invent fake MaineCare claims and defraud the taxpayers of Maine.

Ali has never denied these allegations. Instead he has attacked me. Now his allies in Jubaland are calling for violence against journalists for exposing the truth, while his allies in Maine turn a blind eye or smear the reporters and politicians exposing fraud and corruption.

Attorney General Aaron Frey refuses to investigate credible allegations of fraud against Gateway. Instead, the thugs in the Mills Administration had the whistleblower audited. Imagine that! Exposing corruption, at great personal risk, only to have the Mills Team pull a mafia tactic and sic Maine Revenue Services on you.

Democrats are not only defending this behavior from the migrant NGO complex, many of them are part of it. Rep. Deqa Dhalac worked at Gateway as Assistant Executive Director while the alleged fraud was happening. So did Rep. Yusuf Yusuf. Shenna Bellows fundraised this summer with Safiya Khalid, former special assistant to Abdullahi Ali. Ekhlas Ahmed, a former Gateway employee, runs the "Office of New Americans" for Janet Mills.

Gov. Janet Mills has the authority to stop payments to Gateway, but instead she has issued them no-bid contracts. Hundreds of thousands of dollars that could have gone to Maine schools or to low-income Mainers are instead funneled into Gateway Community Services and other migrant NGOs.

Why?

Because Gateway's offices in Lewiston and Portland are basically arms of the Maine Democratic Party. Those offices host vote harvesting operations that recruit migrants into welfare programs and supply Democrat votes — all paid for with tax dollars.

For those who care to pay attention, all the receipts, the contracts, the documents, and the evidence is contained within the Substack post below and the linked posts.

"Is this the type of diversity we wanted here in Maine. Are you f*cking liberals happy?" one perturbed resident said on TikTok.

BREAKING:

A Somali politician in Maine has placed a BOUNTY on the head of a journalist for reporting fraud in Maine’s Mainecare (medical).

WTF is happening in America?!

Time to KICK these LOWLIFE’S OUT. pic.twitter.com/JyAlR8LO1N

— Mila Joy (@Milajoy) December 7, 2025

In a recent interview with The National News Desk, Maine State Sen. Matt Harrington said, "It's disgusting to me that they would do this."

"You can't rob a bank for millions of dollars. You shouldn't be able to rob taxpayers of millions of dollars and get away with it. There absolutely needs to be a criminal investigation into this immediately," Harrington said.

From Minnesota to Maine ... What Democratic-run state will be next where investigations uncover appalling allegations of public resources being looted by migrants?

The parallels between Minnesota and Maine are so eerie.

In both states, there can be zero trust that DHHS and the Gov aren’t an extension of criminal orgs siphoning money from welfare.

Only federal intervention can end this culture of fear and retribution. https://t.co/Odm22ycavC

— Steve Robinson (@SteveRob) December 20, 2025

Maryland? California?

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/21/2025 - 19:15

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of December 21, 2025

• Ten Economic Questions for 2026

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November. This is a composite index of other data.
From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 21 and DOW futures are up 100 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $56.79 per barrel and Brent at $60.76 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $70, and Brent was at $73 - so WTI oil prices are down about 19% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.80 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.01 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.21 year-over-year.

AI, CEOs, Yields, And Peace

Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

AI largely drove the show last week on the risk front. We started poorly, as Blue Owl pulling out of a future Oracle deal triggered some fears. But we finished the week strong as Micron had a solid beat, alleviating many concerns (a nice, soft CPI print helped matters too).

This flip-flopping back and forth on the AI story fits well with last week’s themes - AI Debt Diet vs AI Spend Diet.

Bitcoin seemed to be a decent leading indicator for stocks, but the past few days watching Bitcoin’s intraday moves was about as painful as watching Elaine dance on Seinfeld.

Equity markets are hovering near important levels. I know we’ve been talking a lot more than usual about technical levels, but they often seem to play a more important role during slow, less liquid periods than normal. The Nasdaq 100 bounced, just above the 100-day moving average (like it did in November when the Fed turned dovish). It closed just above the 50-DMA on Friday, which if it holds, should let the Santa rally loose. If it fails, we could be testing the 100-DMA for the 3rd time, and that tends to not work well.

With a holiday shortened week, let’s have some fun with AI.

What If CEOs Were Being Replaced by AI?

With markets being powered by AI, it is one of the main topics of conversation. Literally, every conversation.

In general, I’m on board with the importance of AI. I use it. It is improving rapidly. Having said that, using it “hampers” learning (not searching, reading, and digesting info on my own) and creates “work” around looking for hallucinations. I’d rather do some of the original, interesting work, including going down the wrong path, than searching for ticker symbols that don’t exist, etc. I do worry about the spend versus the results, at today’s costs and usefulness.

What I’ve been wondering lately is how much demand there would be for AI if CEOs thought they were going to be replaced by AI?

First, let’s make it abundantly clear, the CEOs can be guilty of “herd mentality.” Remember when every company had to have a China strategy? When any announcement of investment in China by U.S. companies triggered stock price gains! See Free Money. The rationale was there:

• The potential to sell into a market of 1 billion people, whose incomes and net worths were growing.

• Even cheaper supply chains.

Yeah, yeah, there were people who questioned whether a 51% stake for China made sense. Questioned whether China would ever truly open their markets and whether Chinese consumers would ever spend much on “American” goods? Heck, some even questioned the ability to protect IP.

• At the time, naysayers were drowned out and CEOs were rewarded for their skills in driving business to China. It didn’t always work out quite as planned.

I’m not arguing that the investment in AI is anything like the “need” to have a China plan, but I’m not sure that it is completely irrelevant.

But anyways, why not replace CEOs with AI?

At the moment the trend is to try to reduce jobs and hiring at lower levels in the organization.

Virtually everyone in “our industry” is talking about the ability to have fewer analysts, or do more with existing analysts (code for hiring fewer people). While I’m more familiar with what is going on in our industry, I think it is safe to say that most of the AI spend is centered around reducing labor costs at the lower end of the corporate ladder.

But why?

• At today’s cost, is it really cheaper to spend on AI than to have a few more junior people?

  • Sure, if you can spend $100k and replace 3 junior people, it’s a huge win. But are those the numbers we are currently seeing? If it is $1 million to save 3 jobs, maybe it isn’t the correct trade off?

• Why not empower junior employees? The cynical side of me (which is by far the bigger side) sometimes thinks the management consultant industry exists because CEOs prefer to pay a lot of money to be told by recent grads at the consulting firms what their own recent grads could tell them as part of their daily duties.

  • I will admit that perspective on the consulting industry is a bit over the top, but all too often it seems that it is difficult for people doing a job every single day, to get their own voice heard on what would make their job more effective. Maybe it is easier for AI to cancel the 10am Monday meeting, than to listen to some junior person argue that it is pointless? Maybe management is scared to empower the people who might know best what would make their jobs easier? Certainly, before embarking on AI spend, it would make some sense to see what can be done internally? I highly expect the conclusions wouldn’t be that dissimilar, but you’d have people who will grow with the organization, and the organization will be better for it in the long run.

  • The U.S. military, and my colleagues at Academy who have served (and in some cases are still serving in the reserves) relies heavily on NCOs. The Non-Commissioned Officer class (typically sergeants) is one of the unique features of the U.S. military relative to other militaries. Not that other militaries don’t have that rank, they just don’t empower them. General after General, Admiral after Admiral, all tell me that empowering the NCOs is one of the big advantages the U.S. military has. They carry on the culture. They mold those who serve with them (including sometimes, junior officers at the start of their career). They can take action in the field, of their own volition, in pursuit of goals and targets. Those actions often are the difference between winning and losing, which in the military, really is a matter of life or death.

  • Maybe I’m rambling, but I suspect we could all listen to juniors more, even as part of any AI implementation, and be pleasantly surprised how many good ideas for efficiency and growth are there, just waiting to be tapped?

• The CEO’s job is extremely difficult.

  • No other job requires so much input. In my role at Academy, I have relatively few inputs to take into account while delivering what I deliver. As you move up the management chain, you have to deal with more and more inputs. Almost a mind boggling amount of information for a CEO of a large company. And the consequences of their decisions matter! If you hate this T-Report, you may not open the next one. That is probably the biggest downside from my decision today. Decisions to open or close business lines have far bigger impacts, ones that cannot be changed quickly.

  • So why isn’t AI groomed to be CEO?

    • The job is more difficult and requires more information to be processed, so isn’t AI better suited for that? Aren’t the “real” benefits of AI more relevant to the CEO than to the average employee? If you “fix” junior jobs, you are talking about dollars and cents. If you fix the CEO jobs you are talking about millions, and maybe billions?

    • I did use AI to find that in 2024 the average CEO to worker pay ratio for S&P 500 companies was 285:1. The same AI, also told me that CEOs on average made $21.45 million while employees earn on average about $51,394 – which is 400 times.

    • Yes, there is only 1 CEO and leadership is also a crucial role the CEO plays. Not just the decision making part, but also getting the team focused and working together. AI cannot replace leadership, and it really can’t replace leadership at junior levels, where that leadership is also critical.

Just like China strategies evolved, I expect that we could see AI strategies evolve, hopefully in a way that we maximize the Human Intelligence (HI?) while trying to be cost effective in our AI deployment.

I do think this section, as offbeat as it might seem, is something people are thinking about and may slow the AI spend, as costs continue to rise.

It will also drive the AI (and data centers) to new solutions and products to feed the evolution of the industry and the use cases.

Back to Yields

If the “scary” chart of the past couple of weeks has been Oracle CDS, it was Japanese bond yields by the end of this week. For the record, Oracle CDS finished a couple bps tighter on the week – making the end of my interview last Friday seem better than it did early in the week when it was still widening.

The Japanese 10-year bond yield broke 2% for this week. It spent most of the past decade below 0.5%.

So far this rise in Japanese bond yields has been accompanied by a weakening yen. Not exactly what the “textbook” would predict, but markets often follow narratives of their own (in theory as the yield differential decreases, the currency should appreciate, or so I read).

The yen carry trade is either some huge overriding trade that drives global markets, or it is a niche trade, where many overstate the importance of it. I’m in the latter camp, but since it is gaining a lot of attention lately, it is worth revisiting.

In theory many funds borrow in yen to fund positions in other assets. The interest rate on borrowing in yen was so low that you could “outperform” your borrowing costs (even taking FX risk). The corollary or flipside of this, is that many Japanese bond investors would buy U.S. Treasuries and attempt some currency hedges to outperform direct investments in Japanese government bonds.

That trade is less appealing on the interest rate differential. The difference between Japanese and U.S. central bank rates was 5.4% as recently as February 2024. It is down to 3.1%. Still a large differential, but it could impact the so-called “carry” trade.

A return to a strengthening of the yen would put far more pressure on the trade as many don’t hedge the FX risk. Again, this is a bit of a murky trade where some argue it is a huge driver of risk premium across the globe, while I suspect its importance is overstated. But not so overstated that we can completely ignore it.

This may go a long way to explaining why U.S. 10-year yields are still stuck between 4.1% and 4.2%.

The EU Had “One Job”

Periodically, I search the “you had one job” meme on social media. It never fails to deliver a smile.

Today, I’m not smiling.

Our assessment of what the EU can do to support Ukraine, maybe even as part of their commitment to NATO, was to seize Russia’s frozen assets and use them to purchase military equipment.

The EU does not have the military equipment or personnel to contribute, so aside from fully enforcing sanctions (which they have also been loathe to do), they could fund more equipment purchases for Ukraine.

Seizing Russia’s frozen reserves seemed to be the “easiest” way for Europe to do this:

• It would not only fund the war effort, but it would also hurt Putin.

• It would avoid Europe dithering for weeks or months, on issuing debt to fund some sort of purchases. Not exactly the sort of business arrangement the President likes (and I cannot blame him – we’ve argued that many of Trump’s comments seem to have laid down the gauntlet around Europe and Russia’s reserves). In any case, this time, despite the sound of it, I’m not being cynical. Sometimes what sounds like cynicism is just reality.

Without this seizure, we are seeing European bond yields rise. The “mitigating” factor is that it is probably safe to bet that Europe won’t really act. That there won’t be a deluge of European debt offerings to fund weapons purchases for Ukraine because weapons purchases won’t happen at scale.

What a “Peaceful” Ukraine/Russia Will Look Like

The consensus of the GIG is that we aren’t headed towards peace any time soon, but that Putin has the capability to outlast Ukraine, and Ukraine will ultimately come to the table.

Without the seizure of Russia’s reserves, I think Ukraine has to come to the table faster than they would otherwise.

They may not like what the U.S. is proposing, but it is “reasonably” concrete. If you were Ukraine, you could try and keep some of the U.S. proposals at bay, while waiting for Europe to come through. Whatever machinations Europe goes through, if I’m Ukraine, I’m more skeptical about any sort of game changing help from Europe. When headlines read Belgium and Putin win, you have to be nervous (the Weakest Link was almost more popular in the U.K. than in the U.S., maybe because it is the politics of the EU – the UK was part of the EU when that show was at peak popularity). Unanimous decisions within the EU are hard to reach, so appeasing every country makes it difficult to do much. And that is ignoring the hard truth that many European nations have their own economic concerns to deal with.

So, time to think a little bit more about what “peace” might look like:

• Stronger security guarantees by the U.S. for Ukraine.

  • These will be given because Ukraine will give the U.S. (and its corporations) extremely favorable deals for years. The admin will not provide security guarantees so much to protect Ukraine, but to protect the business interests that will be generated.

• The business deals with Russia will be even better for U.S. corporations.

  • Whatever Ukraine may have to give up, as they realize they cannot get enough support from Europe to continue, will be big for the U.S. Russia will give up even more since Europe clearly had no interest in giving them anything and they are being pushed to the brink by the U.S. It will be interesting to see what China and maybe even India have to say about any favorable treatment given to the U.S. and U.S. businesses.

• Look for Poland and even Romania to thrive.

  • Whatever the prognosis is for lasting peace, many companies will want to stage their operations outside of Russia, and even outside of Ukraine. When deciding where to launch your expansion into Russia and/or Ukraine, both Poland and increasingly, Romania make sense. Poland has proven itself to be resilient and extremely competent during the war. Romania, in my understanding, and I’m learning more, has also played a key role and has some advantages in terms of its borders.

Much of what the admin is looking for in the region fits our ProSec™ narrative, and I think we are one step further towards seeing the admin achieve those goals.

Bottom Line

Despite signs that inflation is abating, bond yields will be a bit stubborn, because of what is happening across the globe, rather than due to our domestic policy/data. I want to buy the long end, and own flatteners, but it is still a touch early.

Credit was a little weaker than stocks this week. Fear of the calendar seems to be keeping spreads from tightening even when other risk assets do well. That will likely persist, but I think the start of the new issue season will be a sign to load up on credit. A lot of “room” has been made to absorb the supply, and if we are correct on the AI Debt Diet thesis, some fears, currently priced into the market, will dissipate.

Something looks seriously “off” in the crypto market (I cannot unsee Elaine dancing). Even with the support this admin and the regulators have for the business, it seems prudent to remain cautious. It continues to be erratic and stuck at levels that seem to make little sense given the ongoing drumbeat of positive news.

If stocks can open decently on Monday, look for strength into year-end, and then some more choppiness. If stocks cannot hold onto the gains from Friday, we will all have a far more anxious holiday season than we were hoping for, as support and “blindly” buying the dip don’t seem to be there.

The AI Debt Diet and AI Spend Diet will be key factors for the markets early next year.

Any peace with Russia and Ukraine is likely to lower commodity prices (as access is granted), but look for U.S. companies to dominate any rebuilding and look for the admin to focus on refining and processing even more than extraction.

And no, CEOs should not be replaced by AI, but we should all be figuring out the right balance and what the real cost/benefits are. I think that could drive down spend a little bit, and actually drive up productivity.

Hopefully, markets cooperate and let us enjoy the holiday season as we ramp up for what should be a busy 2026!

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/21/2025 - 18:40

California Faces Fuel Disaster As Refineries And Gas Stations Shut Down

The Democrat crusade to divert blame for the stagflation crisis triggered during the Biden Administration led them down a path of economic lies.  The central theme of their narrative was that corporations were "price gouging" consumers and inflation was actually a product of "corporate greed."  In reality, helicopter money and dollar devaluation during the pandemic triggered a massive consumer demand rush as well as shortages in a variety of goods and raw materials.

The profit margins in many of these industries were paper thin as their manufacturing and labor costs skyrocketed, yet Democrats tried to scapegoat them anyway.  The word "accountability" is not in the leftist vocabulary.

We are only now starting to witness the aftermath of the legislation and policies put in place by blue states as a means to control prices.  California under Governor Gavin Newsom may have staged its own economic demise (the final nail in the coffin) after laws were passed requiring even greater state interference into oil refineries and gas stations.

Gavin Newsom 's major refinery law, ABX2-1 (signed Oct 2024), gives the state power to mandate minimum fuel storage levels and control refinery maintenance to prevent price spikes, empowering the California Energy Commission (CEC) to stabilize supply. This builds on earlier efforts (like SB X1-2) creating an oil market watchdog (DPMO) to increase oversight, aiming to stop refiners from manipulating supply for profit, while also adding data reporting requirements for companies.

In response, companies are shutting down refinery operations in the state.

Lawmakers in California at both the state and federal levels are warning that refinery closures could push prices higher while leaving the state more dependent on foreign oil.  At the center of the warning is the planned shutdown of two major refineries: Valero’s Benicia facility and Phillips 66’s Los Angeles plant. Together, the closures would eliminate nearly 20% of California’s in-state refining capacity.

Experts suggest prices could go as high as $10-$12 per gallon as a result of the supply squeeze, spreading outside of CA to Arizona and Nevada. Republican lawmakers say that the loss of in-state production threatens not only consumer prices at the pump but also the state’s military readiness; a matter of national security. 

The refineries make jet fuel and diesel and gasoline for military bases across California.  California is home to more than 30 military bases, many of which rely on fuel refined in-state.  Gavin Newsom has mostly dismissed concerns as exaggeration, asserting that foreign shipments of fuel will fill the supply gap.  He argued in a recent statement:

“The claim that California policies pose a national security risk isn’t grounded in fact. The state has proactively engaged defense fuel customers throughout this energy transition, and no credible concerns have been raised about future fuel supply for the military. California is leading this transition responsibly while ensuring families have access to a safe, reliable, and affordable supply of transportation fuels..." 

California law, primarily through Senate Bill 445, also mandates that all single-walled Underground Storage Tanks (USTs) and piping must be permanently closed or replaced with compliant double-walled systems by December 31st, 2025.  The claim is that this will prevent leaks and environmental contamination, with significant fines for non-compliance.

The state created a program called "RUST" to supposedly help small businesses meet the deadline by providing subsidies to pay for new tanks.  However, many mom-and-pop gas stations are reporting that they never received any aid from the RUST program, even though they applied far in advance.  Hundreds of small business gas stations in CA are set to shut down in 2026.  A large number of them are rural and operate as the only gas stations for long stretches of highway.  

In October, the newly created Division of Petroleum Market Oversight released its first annual report meant to discover why CA gas prices are so high.  The report merely confirmed what was already known - CA prices are much higher than other states because of the differential in taxes and regulatory costs.  No concrete evidence of price gouging on the part of energy companies was found.

Blue states like CA have been increasingly subjecting their citizens to an experiment in artificial energy scarcity; reducing access to "fossil fuels" while raising taxes to force consumers into the electric car market.  All of this is being done in the name of stopping "man-made global warming", a problem which does not exist.  Newsom claims that he is trying to help CA citizens by lowering gas prices, but all of his actions are leading to a price explosion.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/21/2025 - 18:05

Pentagon Fails Audit For 8th Consecutive Year

Authored by Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times,

The Pentagon has failed to pass a full financial audit for the eighth year in a row.

Congress initially mandated annual independent audits across the Department of Defense in 2018. In that time, the department has failed to pass a single full audit.

The Department of Defense—also known as the Department of War—lists $4.65 trillion in assets and $4.72 trillion in liabilities through fiscal year 2025, which ended on Sept. 30. The Pentagon cannot account for its full balance sheet.

An audit report, finalized on Dec. 18 by the Department of Defense Office of Inspector General, identified 26 material weaknesses and two significant deficiencies in the Pentagon’s financial reporting practices for the year.

Auditors rendered adverse opinions in 10 of 28 subaudits contained within the overall Pentagon audit for the year. Adverse opinions are issued when audits find financial reporting to be inaccurate.

The audit also listed further disclaimers of opinion, meaning auditors could not be certain one way or another whether the balance sheets of certain funds or programs were accurately recorded.

Auditors applied the disclaimers of opinion to the Department of the Army General Fund, the Department of the Army Working Capital Fund, the U.S. Navy General Fund, the Department of the Air Force General Fund, the Department of the Air Force Working Capital Fund, the U.S. Transportation Command Transportation Working Capital Fund, the Defense Intelligence Agency, the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, the Defense Health Program General Fund, the Defense Information Systems Agency General Fund, and the Defense Logistics Agency Working Capital Fund.

The audit report said the disclaimers of opinion cover programs and funds that comprise a combined 43 percent of the U.S. military’s total assets and at least 64 percent of the military’s total budgetary resources.

Auditors found material misstatements within the Joint Strike Fighter program, which oversees the F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter used by the various U.S. military branches and numerous partner nations.

The report found the program did not properly account for its global pool of spare parts.

The audit also found misstatements in the various programs the U.S. military uses to build up the military strength of various global allies and partners. Auditors determined there were $18.9 billion worth of material misstatements across partnership programs.

Despite eight attempts and eight failures, the Pentagon still has a way to go before it passes a full audit. The Pentagon is currently set on a goal to pass its first audit in 2028.

“We have reviewed the audit report and acknowledge the findings and results. The Department of War is committed to resolving its critical issues and achieving an unmodified audit opinion by 2028,” Jules Hurst, who is performing the duties of the Pentagon comptroller, said in a Dec. 18 statement attached to the audit report.

Despite the setbacks, the Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said the latest report showed continuing improvements across the Pentagon’s accounting efforts.

“This year’s audit revealed remediations in key areas, reflecting significant progress in financial management,” Hegseth said in a statement attached to the audit report.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/21/2025 - 17:30

"Dollar Store Obama": House Oversight Chair James Comer Torches Hakeem Jeffries

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer isn’t backing down from his probe into the massive Somali-led fraud draining Minnesota’s social services, slamming Democrat Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries for shielding the scandal with personal attacks.

With federal investigations now revealing losses potentially exceeding $9 billion across multiple state-run programs, Comer’s takedown highlights how unchecked immigration policies have enabled epic taxpayer rip-offs under Democrat watch.

Comer launched the investigation earlier this month, targeting widespread fraud in Minnesota’s welfare and social services exploited by Somali immigrants. In a letter to Governor Tim Walz and Attorney General Keith Ellison, he demanded answers on the theft of billions from state and federal coffers.

?BREAKING: Rep. Comer UNLEASHES on Hakeem Jeffries after Jeffries attacks him over the Tim Walz fraud investigation:

“Everyone sees how he tries to imitate Obama! They wonder why he’s got the nickname, ‘DOLLAR STORE OBAMA!’ He’s a low-IQ.” ?
pic.twitter.com/A93lNqpd8r

— Jack (@jackunheard) December 20, 2025

“The Committee on Oversight and Government Reform is investigating reports of widespread fraud in Minnesota’s social services programs. The Committee has serious concerns about how you as the Governor, and the Democrat-controlled administration, allowed millions of dollars to be stolen. The Committee also has concerns that you and your administration were fully aware of this fraud and chose not to act for fear of political retaliation,” Comer wrote.

He added, “The Committee therefore requests documents and communications showing what your administration knew about this fraud and whether you took action to limit or halt the investigation into this widespread fraud.”

The probe follows reports of schemes like the Feeding Our Future scandal, where fraudsters siphoned off funds meant for child nutrition, autism services, and housing aid. Federal prosecutors recently charged six more defendants in related autism and housing frauds, with one pleading guilty, as part of an ongoing crackdown.

Latest updates from U.S. attorneys indicate fraud in 14 Minnesota programs could top $9 billion, swamping state resources and prompting Treasury probes into potential terrorism ties. Governor Tim Walz, facing heat, admitted accountability but vowed fixes amid mounting charges.

When pressed on Walz and Ellison’s cooperation, Jeffries dodged the question and unleashed insults, labeling Comer “a joke, an embarrassment, an unserious individual, and a malignant clown.”

Comer fired back hard, dismissing the barbs and turning the tables on Jeffries’ hypocrisy.

“That’s the third time he’s called me a clown. Look, everyone that watches his interviews and sees how he tries to imitate Obama, they wonder why he’s got the nickname Dollar Store Obama. Look, he’s a low-IQ individual who has to resort to name-calling; that’s what he criticizes Donald Trump over. I don’t care what he calls me. He can come to Kentucky and campaign against me. I’ll pay for his gas bill,” Comer said.

“But at the end of the day, to defend Tim Walz is going to be a huge mistake for the Democrats because everyone in Minnesota knows that this fraud has been taking place for a long time. All I’m doing is my job, getting the backs of the taxpayers. If Hakeem Jeffries doesn’t like it, he can go fly a kite because, at the end of the day, the American people expect their tax dollars to be spent wisely.”

Adding fuel to the fire, Trump advisor Stephen Miller framed the scandal’s scale on Fox News, comparing it to Somalia’s GDP and blasting the importation of criminal elements.

“Well, first of all, regarding the situation in Minnesota, by the way, not just Minnesota — we have Somali refugees that were dumped here by Democrats in Ohio and Massachusetts. Let me just say we should not be shocked. When you import a population whose primary occupation is pirate, that they are going to come here and steal everything we have,” Miller said.

“Somalia has this giant coastline, and the only industry they have created, after hundreds of years is piracy, stealing what anyone going through who has actually built something has made. So, yes, the pirates have stolen all of our money, and they have to go home, Jesse. That’s the situation we’re in right now,” Miller further urged.

Miller continued: “So he has presided over — this corrupt, incompetent loser has presided over the largest theft of American taxpayer dollars in history. It’s never been equal before. The amount of money that’s been stolen is larger than the entire GDP of Somalia. In other words, the Somalians they brought here have theft and more than all the Somalians in Somalia have ever created for themselves in all the time that has existed up until now.”

“So there needs to be a lot of people going to jail. And I can promise you, the Department of Justice is launching an investigation that is commensurate in force and in purpose with the scope, scale, size and magnitude of this controversy,” Miller declared.

Stephen Miller on the Somalis ripping off Americans in Minnesota:

“The pirates have stolen our money and they have to go home, Jessie.”

This whole clip is great. Enjoy.pic.twitter.com/dxQfLsowuO

— Paul A. Szypula ?? (@Bubblebathgirl) December 20, 2025

This explosive exchange underscores the failures of open-border policies, where America First priorities get trampled by globalist agendas that prioritize foreign grifters over hardworking Americans.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/21/2025 - 15:10

From War 'On' Silver To War 'For' Silver

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

You know Steve Quayle as a renowned radio host, filmmaker, book author and archeological dig expert. Most people do not know that Quayle has four decades experience in the gold and silver markets.

Quayle says the exploding record high prices for gold, and especially silver, are signaling big trouble brewing for the financial system. Are prices rising because we are near a global sovereign debt crisis or a wider war with Russia and Ukraine? Are currencies under pressure or is the bond market about to tank? It might be anyone of these, or all of the above, but one thing is for sure, the price of silver is going up well beyond the latest record high price. Quayle says,

“This has been one of the most explosive weeks with events taking place. Those of us in the business have known that the powers that be have been making their war on silver for 50 years. For 50 years, they have been manipulating the price of silver... robbing primarily from the individual investor. The war on silver has passed. Now, we are looking at the war for silver that is underway.

We are looking at a global treasure hunt for gold and silver, primarily silver ,for the burgeoning and exploding technology. Silver has properties that no other metal has.”

For example, Samsung just cut a deal in Mexico to reopen a mine and take all the production over the next two years. They are bypassing COMEX, CME and the LBMA and getting their raw silver directly from the mine. Quayle knows of nearly a dozen other big tech companies scrambling for silver. Quayle points out:

“This is critical because the amount of silver that would normally be available to individual investors is being cut off at the mine.”

Quayle says China is one of the biggest players getting control of silver supplies around the globe. Quayle says,

“People would be astonished that the industrial demand for silver outstrips the available silver...

Here is the bottom line: on the production side, silver is oversold dramatically...

By the way, I am told the official price for silver behind the scenes is $86 an ounce...

The question is how fast will the silver market accelerate and make it impossible for the average investor or private investor to acquire?”

Quayle is also seeing the end of the futures markets and the way silver and gold has been priced. Quayle says:

 “We are watching the end of the futures market in the United States and in London. The London Bullion Metals Exchange cannot deliver. In my opinion, they have cheated and lied.”

If they don’t have the metal to deliver, they cannot set the price. Quayle says,

“Would you trust them with anything such as cattle futures, hogs or soybeans? Heck no. . .. Physical silver in hand still exists, but for how long? This is not a scare tactic. It is supply and demand...

I am telling people to get what you can while you can because the day will come when silver and gold will be unobtainable...

It’s critical for people to acquire what they can acquire now in silver. Gold is always your savings. Silver, historically, has been your barter fund.

Gold is your savings account for the future, and silver is your way to make it to the future.”

There is more in the 58-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes one-on-one with Steve Quayle warning you to prepare for much higher prices for silver and the financial storm that a failure to deliver physical silver will cause for 12.20.25.

To Donate to USAWatchdog, click here

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/21/2025 - 14:00

Citizens In Eastern Ukraine Will Not Be Allowed To Vote, Zelensky Says

President Volodymyr Zelensky has confirmed that Ukraine and Washington are in talks about holding elections, after earlier this month he much belatedly said while under pressure from Trump that he's ready to allow national elections, so long as they can be done fairly and freely.

Zelensky indicated current discussions also hinge on the US and other partners helping set the conditions so Ukrainians can vote in safety. He previously stated the country could hold a vote within 60 days - but only if there are security guarantees.

Already over the weekend he erected more barriers to holding a vote, stipulating that citizens in Eastern Ukraine would not be able to participate. 

"Any election in Ukraine can not be held in Russia-occupied parts of the country," Zelensky has been quoted in international press as saying, and he once again added that a proper voting process can take place only if security is ensured.

via Al Jazeera

He has also lately said that Ukraine's foreign minister had started the initial work on the infrastructure needed for Ukrainians living abroad to participate.

The four oblasts that President Putin has called "our four new regions" and "our citizens forever" include Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions - and were annexed after a popular referendum during the first year of the war.

Putin has blasted Zelensky's rule as illegitimate given the canceled elections based on enacting a state of martial law, and President Trump has expressed increasing agreement with this perspective.

Still, Zelensky's new 'openness' with holding an election has been coupled with plenty of caveats and likely immense barriers. For example last week he said--

...that a ceasefire with Russia must be in place before elections can be held in Ukraine, "at least for the duration of the election process and voting". Ukrainian law forbids wartime elections but US President Donald Trump is pressuring Zelensky, whose term ended last year, to hold a vote.

But Trump this month finally put some real pressure on him, it appears. Given Zelensky had put the brakes on the US-proposed pace plan by definitively rejecting the territorial concessions aspects to the document, the US president's assessment in a recent Politico interview was blunt and highly critical, going so far as to basically call Ukraine not a democracy.

"They haven’t had an election in a long time," Trump said. "You know, they talk about a democracy, but it gets to a point where it's not a democracy anymore."

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/21/2025 - 13:25

Jim Beam Shuttering Kentucky Distillery, Halting Production, For 2026

One of Kentucky’s largest bourbon producers will halt whiskey production at its main Clermont site for 2026. Jim Beam plans to pause distillation at the James B. Beam campus in Happy Hollow beginning Jan. 1 while investing in site enhancements, according to the Lexington Herald Leader.

“We are always assessing production levels to best meet consumer demand and recently met with our team to discuss our volumes for 2026,” the statement said. “We’ve shared with our teams that while we will continue to distill at our (Freddie Booker Noe) craft distillery in Clermont and at our larger Booker Noe distillery in Boston, we plan to pause distillation at our main distillery on the James B. Beam campus for 2026 while we take the opportunity to invest in site enhancements. Our visitor center at the James B. Beam campus remains open so visitors can have the full James B. Beam experience and join us for a meal at The Kitchen Table.”

Bottling and warehousing will continue at Clermont, and the visitor center will remain open for Kentucky Bourbon Trail tourists. The pause was first reported by the Louisville Business Journal.

The Herald writes that the move comes as Kentucky’s $9 billion bourbon industry faces oversupply and weaker demand. Production statewide is down more than 55 million proof-gallons—over 28%—through August, the lowest level since 2018. Exports have also fallen, with U.S. whiskey sales to Canada down more than 60% through October amid a boycott tied to trade tensions.

Beam has not filed a layoffs notice with the state, and it is unclear how many jobs could be affected. Workers are represented by United Food and Commercial Workers, and the company said it is in discussions with the union “to assess how best to utilize our workforce during this transition.”

The Clermont facility produces Jim Beam’s flagship bourbon along with Basil Hayden and Knob Creek. A larger distillery in Boston, Ky., will not be affected. Distilling at Maker’s Mark also is unaffected. As of 2024, Jim Beam employed nearly 1,500 people in Kentucky.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/21/2025 - 13:25

DHS Locates Nearly 130,000 Unaccompanied Missing Children, Says Noem

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Department of Health and Human Services have located over 129,143 unaccompanied illegal immigrant children whom the prior administration had lost track of, DHS Secretary Kristi Noem said in a Dec. 19 post on X.

“Too many of these children were exploited, trafficked, and abused,” Noem wrote. “We will continue to ramp up efforts and will not stop until every last child is found.”

In August 2024, the DHS Office of Inspector General published a report revealing that 323,000 illegal immigrant children were unaccounted for in the United States.

As of May 2024, over 32,000 of these children had been served notices to appear in court but failed to do so. In addition, the safety of 291,000 children could not be verified.

In a Nov. 14 statement, DHS announced that the Immigration and Customs Enforcement had launched an initiative with local and state law enforcement partners to conduct welfare checks on the hundreds of thousands of illegal, unaccompanied children smuggled across the border and placed with unvetted sponsors under the Biden administration.

The main aim of the initiative is to ensure they are not being exploited, DHS said.

“Many of the children who came across the border unaccompanied were allowed to be placed with sponsors who were smugglers and sex traffickers,” DHS Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs Tricia McLaughlin said.

“We’ve jump-started our efforts to rescue children who were victims of sex and labor trafficking,” she said.

“President [Donald] Trump and Secretary Noem are laser-focused on protecting children and will continue to work with federal, state, and local law enforcement to reunite children with their families.”

Crackdown on Child Predators

The Trump administration recently launched Operation Relentless Justice to identify, track, and arrest child sex predators, according to a Dec. 19 statement from the Department of Justice (DOJ).

The two-week enforcement operation led to a nationwide crackdown that resulted in the arrest of more than 293 child sexual abuse offenders, with over 205 child victims located.

“Operation Relentless Justice shows no child will be forgotten and that all predators targeting the most vulnerable amongst us will be held accountable,” FBI Director Kash Patel said.

“This year, the FBI has led multiple nationwide surges across the U.S. to find and arrest hundreds of child predators. We will not stop until every child can live a life free of exploitation. We will utilize the strength of all our field offices and our federal, state, and local partners to protect communities across the nation from such horrific crimes.”

Prior to Operation Relentless Justice, the Trump administration had implemented Operation Restore Justice in May, which led to 205 child sex abuse offenders being arrested and 115 children being rescued.

Later in August, Operation Enduring Justice resulted in the arrests of 234 offenders and the rescue of 133 children.

Commenting on Operation Relentless Justice, FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino said in a Dec. 19 post on X that this was “one of many successful” operations conducted to crack down on violent crimes against children this year.

“The Director and I have prioritized their life-saving work from the moment we swore in. And we assured them an agency-wide effort to punish the demons who violate the sacred trust of children,” Bongino wrote.

On Dec. 19, the DOJ announced that a member of the Nihilistic Violent Extremist group “764” pleaded guilty to multiple acts involving the sexual exploitation of children.

The group is an online criminal network that methodically targets and exploits minors. The perpetrator, who pleaded guilty, is alleged to have coerced minors into engaging in sexual acts and committing self-harm.

The perpetrator “led a group of online predators whose ultimate purpose is to destroy our society,” said Sue J. Bai, principal deputy assistant attorney general for National Security.

“They tried to achieve that heinous goal by desensitizing innocent children to violence—coercing them to perform gruesome and harmful acts against themselves and animals—with the hope of encouraging further violence and spreading chaos.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/21/2025 - 12:50