A Cautionary Solar Tale: Billions Wasted Thanks To A Rush To Market

Authored by Gary Abernathy via The Empowerment Alliance (emphasis ours),

Back in the late 1970s there was a popular wine commercial with the film director Orson Welles reminding us that “some things can’t be rushed,” and concluding with what became a famous catchphrase: “We will sell no wine before its time.”

One of the biggest yet least discussed problems with the race to establish the solar industry before the subsidies run out is that the product has arguably been rushed to market before it is perfected. The construction is getting ahead of the expertise—meaning that billions of dollars could be invested in solar devices that are soon to become outdated.

The haste to establish solar fields across more than a million acres of U.S. farmland—along with countless more installations around the world—has seemed to come with relatively little long-term planning as to deployment, functionality with existing electric grids and eventual decommissioning and disposal.

Modern solar devices are relatively new creations, in many cases still being studied and upgraded. And yet, giant arrays of solar panels mounted on posts—replacing acres of corn, wheat, and soybean fields—are being established as though the technology is finalized and the form complete.

A stark example of the folly of rushing solar products to market was recently provided. The Ivanpah Solar Power Facility in the Mojave Desert, built from 2010–14 at a cost of $2.2 billion—including $1.6 billion in three federal loan guarantees from the Obama Energy Department—is now “set to close in 2026 after failing to efficiently generate solar energy,” according to a recent story in the New York Post.

“The facility’s 5 square miles of desert were covered with some 173,500 heliostats, adjusted via computer to catch maximum rays,” the story noted. “The computer-controlled mirrors can reflect light from the sun at temperatures that can reach 1,000 degrees in part of the installment.”

“The idea was that you could use the sun to produce a heat source,” alternative energy consultant Edward Smeloff told the Post. “The mirrors reflect heat from the sun up to a receiver, which is mounted on top of the tower. That heats a fluid. It creates steam [that spins] a conventional steam turbine. It is complicated.”

But as the technology rapidly evolved, the Ivanpah facility “couldn’t compete with newer and less expensive forms of creating solar power,” the Post reported. The result? The reckless hurry to “go green” once again ended up with a project deep in the red.

Modern solar technology is so emergent that it’s a long way from being perfected. For instance, new research at the Autonomous University of Querétaroin in Mexico is studying “a new thin-film solar cell design capable of converting more than twice the standard percentage of sunlight into usable electricity,” according to Metal Tech News.

The technology is designed to utilize “only Earth-abundant, non-toxic materials in a breakthrough that could help reshape the solar industry” and have applications “both environmentally friendly and suitable for large-scale manufacturing.”

“Higher efficiency means a solar panel will produce more electricity for a given amount of sunlight, which can be crucial in applications with limited available space or where maximizing energy output is essential,” the story noted.

Another innovation involves “bifacial” solar panels, which operate by “capturing sunlight from both the front and back of the module,” allowing them to “utilize reflected sunlight from various surfaces, such as the ground, water, or nearby structures, resulting in increased electricity yield,” according to an industry report.

Left unsaid is that such breakthroughs would mean that many existing solar installations are operating with outdated technology generating less electricity than would have been likely if patience, continued research and a more complete product had been brought to market.

Yes, technology is always evolving and improvements are constantly being made on everything from automobiles to microwave ovens to cell phones to laptop computers. But in few areas—none to the extent to which taxpayers have propped up solar—have billions of dollars in subsidies been allocated to rush such a still-evolving product into production, installation and implementation.

Even more concerning is the fact that there is no need for such urgency. Our traditional, affordable hydrocarbons, especially natural gas, are sufficiently abundant to last at least through the remainder of this century. With more time and continued research, solar energy might someday be deployed more efficiently and cost-effectively, possibly requiring a fraction of the footprint currently required. Such foresight could preserve more farmland for agricultural use and minimize potential brownfield damage when solar fields reach their decommissioning stage.

The solar industry should only launch validated, fully realized products that are economically viable without government subsidies. As Steven Milloy, senior fellow at the Energy & Environmental Legal Institute, said in regard to the Ivanpah solar debacle, “No green project relying on taxpayer subsidies has ever made any economic or environmental sense.”

The “renewables” sector should learn a lesson from the wine-making industry and promise to install no solar before its time.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/03/2025 - 18:25

Trump Boasts He "Pushed" Netanyahu Into Gaza Ceasefire In Candid Reveal

US President Donald Trump has said some very revealing things about his sometimes tumultuous relationship with Israel and especially its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a fresh 60 Minutes interview which aired Sunday evening.

Among the most interesting remarks came in the below, wherein he painted a picture of bringing strong pressure to bear against 'Bibi' after which the Israeli leader complied with Trump's policy and wishes. "He's a guy that's never been pushed before actually," Trump stated, in an unusually candid assessment coming from a sitting US president. "I don't think they treat him very well... I pushed him. I didn't like certain things that he did, and you saw what I did about that." Watch:

.@POTUS on PM Netanyahu: "He's a very talented guy. He's a guy that's never been pushed before... I don't think they treat him very well... I pushed him. I didn't like certain things that he did, and you saw what I did about that." pic.twitter.com/C71wHfW5h7

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) November 3, 2025

This is unusual also for a Republican President to say as well, given GOP leaders never openly criticize Israel. Trump had at one point in the remarks emphasized again, "I did, I pushed him." 

But this moment is confirmation straight from Trump himself of what Vice President J.D. Vance described last week while speaking at a Turning Point USA event at the University of Mississippi.

"The most recent Gaza peace plan that all of us have been working on very hard for the past few weeks — the president of the United States could only get that peace deal done by actually being willing to apply leverage to the State of Israel," the vice president had said. 

"When people say that Israel is somehow manipulating or controlling the President of the United States, they're not controlling this President of the United States," he added bluntly.

As we highlighted earlier, US leaders don't usually talk about Washington's relationship with Israel in terms of applying 'leverage' to get the desired outcome, as typically in US politics it's the other way around (given AIPAC's outsized influence etc.).

As for the ongoing Gaza ceasefire, which Trump has been proud of as a major peace accomplishment, Trump described that the truce is not fragile and that he would intervene to help Netanyahu when it comes to his legal troubles in Israel.

"The ceasefire agreement in Gaza is not fragile, but very solid. I would force Hamas to disarm very quickly if I wanted to, and it would be eliminated," Trump told the CBS 60 Minutes host. "Netanyahu is the person Israel needed in times of war," he said. 

Trump on Netanyahu: "I don't think they treat him very well. He's under trial for some things. We'll be involved in that to help him out a little bit because I think it's very unfair." pic.twitter.com/M0C7DWW1Kv

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 3, 2025

He added, "I don't think they treat him very well. He's under trial for some things, and... I think it should – you know, we'll – we'll be involved to help him out a little bit, because I think it's very unfair."

This isn't the first time the US President openly talked about intervening in the legal case, which involves several graft-related charges, which Netanyahu has decried as politically motivated. However, the Israeli opposition has warned of external interference in the case, for obvious reasons.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/03/2025 - 18:00

AI Taking Its Toll On Jobs - What To Know

Authored by Panos Mourdoukoutas via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Some major companies have recently triggered a wave of layoffs, eliminating tens of thousands of jobs. Most cited artificial intelligence (AI) integration and automation as factors behind these moves.

In this photo illustration, a phone screen displays an AI logo on May 16, 2025. AI use in customer service is rising, with 70 percent of interactions expected to involve AI in 2025, according to Wifi Talents. Oleksii Pydsosonnii/The Epoch Times

Experts say that while a significant portion of jobs cannot be replicated by machines, AI will likely usurp white-collar analytical roles and robotics will replace manual labor jobs.

Amazon announced on Oct. 28 that it will eliminate about 14,000 corporate positions to stay “nimble.”

UPS, meanwhile, revealed that it had cut 34,000 operational jobs during the first nine months of this year—a significantly larger reduction than the 20,000 layoffs announced in April—as part of its “efficiency reimagined” initiative.

Nestlé said on Oct. 16 that it will reduce 16,000 jobs worldwide over the next two years in an effort to achieve “operational efficiency” by “leveraging shared services and automating [its] processes.”

In August, Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff disclosed on an podcast that the company had replaced about 4,000 customer support workers with AI agents.

In the past, businesses typically downsized during economic downturns, but these recent staff reductions occurred during a period of robust profitability, signaling something different—a transformation in the way work itself is organized, driven by the rapid diffusion of AI.

Unlike past automation waves that mimicked the functions of the human body—replacing manual or routine tasks—AI targets the human brain’s cognitive abilities. It doesn’t just perform repetitive processes; it learns, analyzes, and makes decisions.

Together, these twin shifts—manual automation and cognitive automation—are remaking both unskilled and skilled labor. The result: some jobs are being transformed, others are being cut.

In a statement included in its job cut announcement, the company explained that AI’s transformative force requires new organizational structures: “It’s enabling companies to innovate much faster than ever before ... We’re convinced that we need to be organized more leanly, with fewer layers and more ownership, to move as quickly as possible for our customers and business.”

However, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said during the company’s Oct. 30 earnings call that the recent layoff announcement was not “really AI-driven, not right now, at least.”

AI Diffusion Across the Workforce

Economists, central banks, and think tanks have documented AI’s rapid spread across workplaces.

A report by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis found that by early 2023, generative AI—the class of AI capable of creating new content—had become widespread across the American workforce. Tools such as ChatGPT were embedded in browsers, office software, and search engines, making large language model usage routine for millions of workers.

The bank found that occupations adopting generative AI most intensively—particularly computer and mathematical fields—experienced the steepest unemployment gains.

“Our results suggest we may be witnessing the early stages of AI-driven job displacement,” the report noted. “Unlike previous technological revolutions that primarily affected manufacturing or routine clerical work, generative AI can target cognitive tasks performed by knowledge workers—traditionally among the most secure employment categories.”

A Brookings Institution report estimates that 30 percent of all U.S. workers could see at least half of their job tasks disrupted by generative AI. Unlike earlier automation, which primarily affected blue-collar work, AI is expected to reshape a broad range of “cognitive” and “nonroutine” occupations—especially those in middle- and high-income professions.

Similarly, the McKinsey Global Institute has projected that automation (a combination of AI and robotics) could displace up to 54 million workers in the United States by 2030.

Meanwhile, a Goldman Sachs analysis projects that widespread AI adoption could displace 6 to 7 percent of the U.S. workforce, equivalent to millions of jobs.

Goldman Sachs economists estimate that temporary unemployment spikes by roughly 0.3 percentage points for each percentage-point gain in productivity from labor-saving technology.

Jobs Most at Risk

A Society for Human Resource Management study, published on April 25, offers a detailed snapshot of U.S. employment exposure to AI.

According to the report, 12.6 percent of jobs—approximately 19.2 million positions—face a high or very high risk of automation-related displacement. Among them, 14 percent of blue-collar jobs, 12.3 percent of white-collar jobs, and 12.1 percent of service-sector jobs are considered at high risk.

Meanwhile, a June 9 report from the freelance work platform Upwork identifies 120 jobs that are hard to be replaced by AI, including clinical, creative, and skilled trades roles.

AI and Changing Nature of Skills

A December 2024 Harvard Business School paper shows that AI has a mixed impact on businesses’ labor demand.

In automation-prone roles, AI reduces the need for specialized expertise by simplifying complex tasks. In augmentation-prone roles, however, it boosts productivity and increases demand for advanced, complementary skill sets.

“As generative AI continues to evolve, understanding its heterogeneous effects on labor demand is critical,” the authors wrote. “Policymakers and business practitioners must recognize the dual forces of automation and augmentation to ensure that workers are equipped to adapt and thrive.”

At the same time, research by Nobel laureate Daron Acemoglu and colleagues—published in the Journal of Labor Economics—shows that as establishments adopt AI, they reduce hiring in non-AI positions and shift skill requirements across remaining roles.

Andy Zenkevich, founder and CEO of Epiic, a digital agency specializing in generative engine optimization (GEO), told The Epoch Times that the fear of mass AI-driven job losses is overstated.

“Among the companies we work with in digital marketing—including major tech firms—layoffs haven’t been the story,” he said. “Instead, jobs are morphing. A junior copywriter becomes an ‘AI content editor,’ responsible for prompt engineering, fact-checking, and editing AI-generated copy.”

Zenkevich estimated that roughly 2.5 percent of jobs are genuinely at risk under a full-scale AI rollout, noting that “true end-to-end automation is much harder than headlines suggest.”

“Over a third of jobs now require hybrid skill sets that combine technical literacy with human qualities machines can’t replicate,” he said.

Georgios Koimisis, associate professor of finance at Manhattan University, echoed a similar skepticism.

“There’s a growing fear that artificial intelligence is wiping out jobs, but the reality is more complex,” he told The Epoch Times. “Companies aren’t cutting workers simply because AI made them redundant. In an uncertain economy, firms want to appear modern and future-ready. Announcing an ‘AI transformation’ reassures investors that management has a plan.”

Koimisis argues that some layoffs, framed as part of AI restructuring, are more about signaling discipline to shareholders than about reflecting genuine technological necessity.

“AI is changing not just how work is organized, but how value itself is defined,” he said.

Izhar Haq, director of the School of Professional Accountancy at Long Island University, agrees that the slowing economy and business cycle are also contributing factors to recent job reductions.

Haq told The Epoch Times that while the long-term economic effects of AI remain uncertain, “white-collar analytical jobs are most at risk from AI integration, while manual labor jobs face risk from robotics.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/03/2025 - 17:40

"We're Seeing Demand Explode": UAE, US Sign AI And Energy Pact As Microsoft To Invest $7.9B On Infrastructure

The UAE and United States have agreed to work together to 'accelerate collaboration' on energy and artificial intelligence. According to The National;

Under the agreement, the UAE and the US will work together on increase advanced industrial capabilities and adopt smart manufacturing technologies. It covers the use of AI in robotics and automation, alongside efforts to promote the sharing of knowledge and capacity building.

UAE President Dr Sultan Al Jaber, Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology, managing director and group chief executive of Adnoc, and executive chairman of XRG, and Doug Burgum, US Secretary of the Interior and Chairman of the National Energy Dominance Council were all present at the signing. 

Meanwhile, Microsoft plans to invest more than $7.9 billion in the United Arab Emirates over the next four years as part of the Gulf state’s push to become a global tech hub, according to Bloomberg.

Announcing the commitment in Abu Dhabi, Microsoft President Brad Smith said, “This is not money we’re raising here. It’s money we’re investing and spending here… We are seeing demand here explode.”

The investment includes nearly tripling the number of advanced Nvidia chips the company will run in the UAE — hardware that had previously faced US export restrictions. Smith said Microsoft received US licenses in September after meeting “very strict conditions” to keep the chips “under our control.”

Bloomberg writes that Microsoft expects to spend $5.5 billion on cloud and AI infrastructure from 2026–2029 and around $2.4 billion on hiring and operations. The company already has about 1,000 engineers and an AI lab in the country.

The UAE is central to Microsoft’s global AI expansion as it races other tech giants to add data-center capacity. Microsoft reported $34.9 billion in global capital spending in the latest quarter and recently announced a $9.7 billion Texas data-center deal.

The software giant has invested $5.8 billion in the UAE since 2023, including $1.5 billion in Abu Dhabi AI company G42, where Smith now serves on the board. OpenAI — backed by Microsoft — has also picked the UAE for its first Stargate data-center project outside the US.

Washington continues to scrutinize chip access in the Gulf amid concerns the technology could leak to China. Microsoft previously deployed 21,500 Nvidia A100-class chips in the UAE and plans to send 60,400 more — including Nvidia’s new GB300 — arriving “in months, not years.”

Overall, Microsoft says its UAE investments will total $15.2 billion from 2023 to 2029.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/03/2025 - 17:20

Illinois Bars ICE Arrests In State Courthouses And Safe Zones

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Illinois has now joined California and Connecticut in barring federal immigration agents from conducting “civil arrests” of illegal aliens in or around state courthouses. The sanctuary law appears largely performative since it also appears unconstitutional. It is difficult to see how a state can bar the exercise of federal jurisdiction, at least after the Civil War.

Gov. JB Pritzker has been ratcheting up the rhetoric against ICE and the Trump Administration for months, including analogies to the Nazis and claims that democracy is dying. The new law, however, crosses the constitutional Rubicon by not only limiting the operation of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) but also establishing a 1,000-foot “buffer zone” outside of buildings.

The law makes courthouses equivalent to churches, where suspects can claim sanctuary not only when they cross the threshold but also within 1000 feet, unless, of course, ICE ignores the law.

Recently, the chief judge in Cook County issued an order with the same prohibition. A few other judges in other states have issued similar orders.

The authority for the orders is highly dubious.

The federal government can cite laws mandating the arrest of certain individuals for immigration violations. See, e.g., 8 U.S.C. § 1226(c) (mandatory detention of certain aliens who are removable due to criminal convictions or terrorist activities); id. § 1231(a) ( detention and removal of aliens with final orders of removal).

The most immediate problem for Illinois is the Supremacy Clause of the United States Constitution: “This Constitution, and the Laws of the United States which shall be made in Pursuance thereof[] . . .  shall be the supreme Law of the Land[] . . . any Thing in the Constitution or Laws of any State to the Contrary notwithstanding.” U.S. Const. art. VI, cl. 2.

The second problem is the Supreme Court, which has repeatedly rejected such state authority to dictate federal enforcement or policies. See, e.g., Harisiades v. Shaughnessy, 342 U.S. 580, 588–89 (1952) (the United States has the “exclusive[]” control over “any policy toward aliens”); see also South Carolina v. Baker, 485 U.S. 505, 523 (1988); Mayo v. United States, 319 U.S. 441, 445 (1943).

Ironically, as I have previously pointed out, these blue states will face an unusual authority cited against them: Barack Obama. It was President Obama who went to the Supreme Court to strike down state laws that interfered with federal immigration enforcement (even in assisting that enforcement). In Arizona v. United States, 567 U.S. 387, 394 (2012), he largely prevailed and the Supreme Court affirmed that “[t]he Government of the United States has broad, undoubted power over the subject of immigration and the status of aliens.”

This recognized authority goes back to the Nineteenth Century. The Court has ruled that “Congress [has] the right, as it may see fit, to expel aliens of a particular class, or to permit them to remain,” and “has undoubtedly the right . . . to take all proper means to carry out the system which it provides.” Fong Yue Ting v. United States, 149 U.S. 698, 714 (1893).

The law also creates the ability to sue federal authorities for false imprisonment under state law.

Keep in mind that the law creates a 1,000-foot circle around any state court, creating safe zones for illegal immigrants.

The provision in the Senate legislation stated:

Section 15.

Civil arrest prohibited; certain locations.

(a) A person duly and in good faith attending a State court proceeding in which the person is a party, a witness, a potential witness, or a court companion of a party, witness, or potential witness is privileged from civil arrest while going to, remaining at, and returning from the court proceeding, including:

(1) at the place of the court proceedings;

(2) within the courthouse building;

(3) on the premises of the courthouse, including parking facilities serving the courthouse;

(4) on any sidewalk, parkway, and street surrounding the courthouse and its premises; and

(5) on any public way within 1,000 feet of the courthouse including a sidewalk, parkway, or street.

Presumably, if you rent an apartment within one of those zones, you would be able to create effective immunity by simply signing a lease. As long as you stay within the specified public areas, you will be protected from civil arrest. With Illinois and other states pushing apps tracking ICE operations, a suspect could step outside onto a sidewalk or public space to claim protection from any civil arrest. It is unclear whether landlords will raise their rents in light of the new immunity amenity.

Keep in mind, if this were constitutional, the state could add to the list of sensitive places from city services to clinics. The result would be a mosaic of safety zones that would be maddening for federal authorities. Notably, blue states have attempted the same tactic to circumvent Second Amendment rights.

The legal infirmities behind these laws is irrelevant for politicians seeking to virtue signal. However, it will come at a real cost for individuals who mistakenly rely on these assurances and assume that they are protected within safe zones.

Many states during the desegregation period challenged federal authority in the fight against civil rights. They also failed.

Of course, the greatest irony is that the two figures who will be cited against this move are the two favorite sons of Illinois who became presidents: Lincoln and Obama. Both reinforced the supremacy of federal jurisdiction.

Indeed, the bill was passed just a couple days before the anniversary of Lincoln’s election as the 16th President of the United States. He then faced states that claimed that they could take the ultimate step of removing themselves from federal authority and jurisdiction.

Illinois now claims the right to dictate where federal authority can be exercised and makes federal authorities liable for violating specified state safe zones.

Good luck with that.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/03/2025 - 17:00

"Most Expensive Stock I've Ever Seen": Palantir Smashes Estimates But Stock Fades After Hours Surge As Valuation Questions Swirl

Palantir, which after Nvidia is perhaps the current AI bubble's most symbolic stock trading at a forward PE of over 300x, reported Q3 earnings which saw the company beat on the top and bottom line and boosted its revenue guidance for the full year; beating the average analyst estimate, sending the stock to fresh all time highs although the after hours action has been decidedly soggy with the stock first surging 7% before reversing all gains. 

The company, whose market cap is just shy of $500 billion and which has quarterly revenue which is about 1/500th of this amount, posted its best-ever quarterly results reporting $1.18 billion in revenue and adjusted EPS of 21 cents per share, above the 17c median estimate. Palantir broke records once again with its third-quarter earnings as the company's artificial-intelligence offerings drove aggressive business growth. 

Here is what the company reported for the just concluded 3rd quarter:

• Adjusted EPS 21c, beating estimates 17c (EPS 18c vs. also beat 6.0c y/y)
• Revenue $1.18 billion, +63% y/y, beating estimate $1.09 billion
  • US commercial revenue grew 121% y/y to $397m
  • US government revenue grew 52% y/y to $486m

The 63% revenue growth was largely driven by Palantir's biggest segment, US commercial, which saw sales rise by 121% year-over-year. Ryan Taylor, Palantir's chief revenue and legal officer, said that Palantir is prioritizing the domestic market, which now comprises 75% of the business' total revenue. The latest quarter was the fourth in a row in which Palantir's U.S. commercial business was larger than its U.S. government segment. 

Looking inside the income statement everything was good here too:

• Operating profit $393.3 million vs. $113.1 million y/y, estimate $255.6 million
• Adjusted operating profit $600.5 million vs. $275.5 million y/y, beating estimates of $498.7 million
  • Adjusted operating margin 51% vs. 38% y/y, beating estimate 45.8%
• Adjusted EBITDA $606.5 million, beating estimates of $502.1 million
  • Adjusted free cash flow $539.9 million, +24% y/y
• Cash and cash equivalents $1.62 billion, estimate $1.31 billion

In keeping with tradition, the company raised its full-year guidance as a result of its momentum. Palantir now anticipates around $4.40 billion in revenues for the 2025 fiscal year, up from the $4.14 billion to $4.15 billion the company had guided for in the second quarter. Here are the details for the coming quarter... 

• Sees revenue $1.33 billion to $1.33 billion, above the estimate $1.19 billion
• Sees adjusted operating profit $695 million to $699 million, above the estimate $574.7 million

... and the full year:

• Sees revenue $4.40 billion to $4.4 billion, saw $4.14 billion to $4.15 billion, beating estimate $4.17 billion 
• Sees adjusted operating profit $2.15 billion to $2.16 billion, saw $1.91 billion to $1.92 billion, beating estimate $1.93 billion
• Sees adjusted free cash flow $1.9 billion to $2.1 billion, saw $1.8 billion to $2.0 billion
• Sees US Commercial revenue above $1.43 billion

The company's earnings beat sends a strong message of continuing demand for Palantir's products. Prior to the earnings report, Citi analyst Tyler Radke questioned if Palantir could surpass the high expectations set by last quarter's results, which saw the company crossing $1 billion in quarterly revenue for the first time.

Analysts expect Palantir to post a 50% increase in third-quarter revenue, with adjusted earnings per share jumping nearly 70%. Those are impressive numbers. But whether they’re enough to keep the rally going is another issue.

Commenting on the quarter, CEO Alexander Karp said in a letter to investors that the "business generated $1.2 billion in revenue for the third quarter of the year, a new record in our more than twenty-year history, representing an accelerating and otherworldly growth rate of 63% over the same period the year before."

Palantir has been a controversial name on Wall Street due to its rich valuation: the stock trades at 85 times forward sales, and a stunning 240x forward PE ratio according to Bloomberg; and reliance on government contracts which can flip quickly especially if Republicans lose control.

“Valuation is our big stumbling block,” said Morgan Stanley analyst Sanjit Singh, who has the equivalent of a hold rating on the shares. “The most expensive I’ve seen in my career.”

That said, concerns about the data analysis company’s hefty price tag are nothing new. Most analysts continue to shy away from full-throated recommendations, with twice as many assigning the stock sell or hold ratings than buy.

Indeed, only 24% of the analysts covering Palantir polled by FactSet assign the stock a buy or buy-equivalent rating. But what Palantir lacks in institutional support, it makes up for with its fervent retail following, which CEO Alex Karp emphasized as a key part of what distinguishes Palantir from other software businesses.

"People who are most excited about our results in America now are average Americans," Karp told MarketWatch.

In the shareholder letter, he said Palantir "has made it possible for retail investors to achieve rates of return previously limited to the most successful venture capitalists in Palo Alto."

Perhaps, but beyond Wall Street, Palantir has a controversial reputation. According to Bloomberg, its involvement with government programs like immigration control, an AI fraud detection partnership with mortgage finance giant Fannie Mae and relationship with the Israeli goverment have all sparked criticism. And its Chief Executive Officer Alex Karp has himself been outspoken on various political topics.

Palantir has a “great CEO, a legitimate business, and a great product,” said Vikram Rai, portfolio manager and macro trader at First New York. But its stock price is being fueled by broader trends lifting momentum plays rather than fundamentals, he said.

Others agree. “When the music stops, this stock is going to get hit harder than others,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co. He applauds Karp and notes that Palantir is one of the few companies out there that’s making money from its AI investments. However, the stock price gives him pause.

“There are other AI plays which are cheaper, like Nvidia, that will be a little safer right now,” Maley said.

Others are more optimistic: Palantir “will grow into its valuation,” tech bull Dan Ives wrote in a research note last week. Wall Street is “still underestimating the company’s commercial efforts,” he added. 

On the commercial side, Gil Luria, managing director and head of technology research at DA Davidson & Co., expects strength because Palantir can “get their customers to an AI solution faster and more effectively than anybody else.” He’s kept his stock rating at neutral due to its high price, but doesn’t “see a reason for the valuation to come down right now either,” he sa

PLTR shares closed Monday above $207, after opening at $10 when the company conducted its 2020 direct listing. And while they spiked as high as $222 after hours, they have since faded to their closing price as the market assesses how much higher the forward multiple can rise.

The stock jumped as much as 3.5% on Monday ahead of results due after the close of trading, putting it on track to close at an all-time high.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/03/2025 - 16:46

Son Of LA Crips Leader Murdered On Halloween Night Outside His Smoke Shop

Jabari Henley — 34-year-old former rapper and son of Rolling 60’s Neighborhood Crips figure and music manager Eugene “Big U” Henley — was shot and killed on Halloween night in South Los Angeles, Breitbart reported this weekend.

The shooting occurred around 11 p.m. outside his smoke shop near 69th Street and Figueroa Street. According to the LAPD, “The victim, described as a 34-year-old Black male, walked up to the suspect vehicle when an unknown suspect or suspects shot at him.” Police said the attackers fled, declined to identify Henley by name, and would not comment on possible gang ties.

The report says that Henley’s father, “Big U,” is widely known for working with rapper Nipsey Hussle and has long been associated with “checking in” — alleged extortion of celebrities entering Crips territory.

One federal affidavit stated, “While Henley and other supporters attempt to persuade the public that the ‘check in’ provides safety and security for those who do so, as set forth herein, he and the Big U Enterprise also manufacture the very danger they purport to protect against.”

Eugene Henley Jr.

Eugene Henley has previously faced charges including kidnapping and robbery, and was linked — though not charged — to the 2021 murder of rapper Rayshawn Williams. Another of his sons, Daiyan Henley, currently plays for the Los Angeles Chargers.

In March, the elder Henley surrendered to federal authorities over accusations he led a “Mafia-like” criminal operation tied to violence and extortion in Los Angeles, the NY Post wrote this weekend. He was one of 18 alleged Rollin 60s members charged in a sweeping federal racketeering case.

Acting United States Attorney Joseph McNally said earlier this year: “As the indictment alleges, Mr. Henley led a criminal enterprise whose conduct ranged from murder to sophisticated fraud that included stealing from taxpayers and a charity."

“Eradicating gangs and organized crime is the Department of Justice’s top priority. Today’s charges against the leadership of this criminal outfit will make our neighborhoods in Los Angeles safer.”

The suspect remains at large. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/03/2025 - 16:40

Is Nov 5th's 'Trump Must Go Now' Action Set To Kick Off Civil War 2.0?

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

Last Ditch?

“The question is, can communist subversion be defeated without using ‘authoritarian’ measures? Is a constitutional republic equipped to deal with this kind of threat? When someone wages war on your society internally, is there a way to fight them while being civic minded? Probably not.”

- Brandon Smith

Doesn’t it kind of look like the Nov. 5 “Trump Must Go Now” action in Washington is designed to be our time’s Fort Sumter moment, to kick off Civil War 2.0? The organizers behind it are the usual suspects: George & Alex Soros’s Open Society Foundation at the hub and spin-offs such as the Tides Foundation, Revolutionary Communist Party, and Refuse Fascism doing the logistical grunt work. . . buses. . . snacks. . . signs. . . brickbats, frog costumes. . . .

The idea is to entice a million Wokesters to surround the White House and literally exorcise the president, get Donald Trump teleported out through the roof into the cosmic ethers, to be seen no more. We’ll have to stand by to see how it works. Something like it was tried in October, 1967, when anti-(Vietnam)-war celebrities — poet Alan Ginsberg, The Fugs’ Ed Sanders, hippie rabblerousers Abbie Hoffman and Jerry Rubin — led incantations to “levitate” the Pentagon. (Failed.)

You might have noticed by now that the most hysterical voices crying about “fascism” are exactly the people who yearn to push everybody else around, tell them what to think, run your life, wreck every institution and relationship in society, and take all your stuff.

The Left never notices how all that resembles their notion of what fascism is. Self-awareness is not the Wokesters’ strong suit.

The Nov. 5 event is predicated on — and coordinated with — the Democratic Party’s government shut-down, especially the suspension of SNAP benefits (free food), in hopes that famished mobs will rise up, loot the supermarkets, and force the president to vigorously put down food riots: Look, Fascist. . . !

But over the weekend Judge John J. McConnell Jr. (Rhode Island) foiled that ploy, commanding the president to use “contingency funds” out of the US Department of Agriculture to keep SNAP running.

The president coyly replied, “If we are given the appropriate legal direction by the Court, it will BE MY HONOR to provide the funding.”

Seeing as how the contingency fund contains only $5.25-billion, and the actual cost of running SNAP through November is $8.5-billion, we have a math problem. So, stand by on Judge McConnell spelling-out what appropriate legal direction can get that done. The president might have demonstrated how federal judges are not competent to carry out his Article II executive duties, and why the Constitution was written as it is. Of course, all this will be moot if the Democrats fold, as expected, by mid-month and vote to re-open the government.

The Lefty federal judges have been uniformly humiliated as one temporary restraining order (TRO) after another gets tossed by the SCOTUS. Judge James Boasberg of the DC District, the very model of a judicial “Resistance” activist, is about to get his ass impeached after ten-years of dabbling in malicious abuse of judicial process (28 U.S.C. § 2680-h under the Federal Tort Claims Act), plus 18 U.S.C. § 1001 (false statements or concealment in federal matters, potentially covering abusive filings), and 8 U.S.C. § 1503/1512 (obstruction of justice via tampering or corrupt persuasion, applicable to malicious process abuse), Stand by on that. Might be a caution to the rest of the federal judge gang to back off their Resistance shenanigans.

In case you haven’t followed the story — since The New York Times and network news won’t report on it — we are in the midst of the “Arctic Frost Investigation” scandal when, in 2022, “Joe Biden” induced AG Merrick Garland and FBI Director Christopher Wray to go mad-dog on Donald Trump and hundreds of political conservatives, including nine US Senators, whose phone records were seized, with gag orders (from Judge Boasberg) to prevent notification of the seize-ees, which has raised accusations of violating their First Amendment rights, and grand jury secrecy. Arctic Frost is still unspooling, with reverberations to come, including insights on the Jack Smith / Norm Eisen lawfare spree in 2023-24 against Donald Trump that followed it.

Altogether, how successful has the Resistance movement to defy, thwart, and overthrow President Trump been going since January 20? Looks a little lame, so far. The summer of “No Kings” was entertaining enough, with the Boomer-geezers wetting their Depends every Saturday morning to stay out past noon, and the mentally-ill Antifas roistering as inflatable dinosaurs and Teletubbies to mask their homicidal tendencies. Don’t be so sure they will get the Second Civil War they yearn for. What it actually looks like is the Left has turned the Democratic Party into a suicide cult. And ask yourself: what is the end point of that, exactly?

*  *  *

Now live: JHK’s new novel, a comic romp set during the week of the tragic JFK Assassination, November 1963. Amusing excerpt from the book at this link.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/03/2025 - 16:20

Energy Secretary Clarifies No Nuclear Explosions 'For Now'

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright on Sunday clarified that the US has no plans to conduct nuclear explosions, at least for the time being, comments that came amid confusion over President Trump’s order for the Pentagon to start testing nuclear weapons.

"I think the tests we’re talking about right now are system tests," Wright told Fox News. "These are not nuclear explosions. These are what we call non-critical explosions."

Nuclear bomb test at the Nevada Proving Grounds in 1951.

Wright added that such tests involve "all the other parts of a nuclear weapon to make sure they deliver the appropriate geometry and they set up the nuclear explosion,” but don’t involve a nuclear detonation. The tests, also known as "subcritical experiments," have been ongoing and would be nothing new for the Energy Department.

It was unclear when Trump first issued the order in a post on Truth Social if he meant the US would restart tests that involve detonating nuclear bombs, something that the US hasn’t done since 1992, or if he meant testing nuclear-capable missiles, something the Pentagon does regularly.

The president said he directed the US War Department to "start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis" as other countries, but all nuclear-armed powers except for North Korea, which last detonated a nuclear weapon in 2017, have maintained a moratorium on detonating nuclear bombs since the 1990s. In response to Trump’s post, Russia warned that it would respond if the US broke the moratorium.

Trump could have been referring to Russia’s recent tests of a nuclear-capable missile and a nuclear-capable drone. The last known US test of a nuclear-capable missile was on May 21, when the US Air Force launched an unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile from California for a 4,200-mile flight to the Marshall Islands.

Underwater nuclear test in the bikini attol , 1946 pic.twitter.com/s8KW848e5f

— War Monitor Clips (@WarMonitorClips) January 26, 2025

If the Energy Department ever did move toward detonating a nuclear bomb, arms control experts say it would take about 36 months to restart such tests.

The explosions would be conducted underground since the US is a party to the 1963 Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, which prohibits all nuclear test detonations except for those conducted underground.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/03/2025 - 15:25

Trump Admin Will Partially Fund November Food Stamps: Filing

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will fund food stamps for November at reduced levels, Trump administration officials said on Nov. 3.

A woman walks by a sign advertising the acceptance of food stamps, in Miami, Fla., on Oct. 31, 2025. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

The USDA will spend billions of dollars in contingency funds, but will not use any additional money, administration lawyers said in a court filing.

That means many SNAP recipients will only receive half as much in benefits as they usually do, the lawyers said.

The government met its deadline of 12 p.m. on Monday to give an update on funding the federal food stamp program, known as SNAP, for November.

U.S. District Judge Jack McConnell previously ruled that the USDA had to at least partially fund the November benefits by using contingency money allocated in federal law “as may become necessary to carry out program operations.”

“Because of the lack of appropriations for Fiscal Year 2026 (i.e., ’the shutdown'), use of those contingency funds has now become required because available funding is necessary to carry out the program operations, i.e., to pay citizens their SNAP benefits,” McConnell said in a Nov. 1 order.

Congress allocated $6 billion in contingency funds, but nearly $1 billion has already been spent, administration officials have said. Officials had resisted using the contingency money, saying it was unavailable because there was no more underlying funding for SNAP in place due to the government shutdown that started on Oct. 1. Congress has not yet reached a deal to reopen the government or provide new funding for SNAP.

McConnell ordered officials to fund SNAP from the bench during a hearing on Friday. President Donald Trump later on Friday said that he directed White House lawyers to seek clarification on how the administration could keep funding SNAP.

SNAP payments were suspended on Nov. 1 as that unfolded.

It costs about $9 billion to fund SNAP each month. SNAP pays an average of $187.20 a month to electronic cards for about 42 million people, according to the USDA.

McConnell suggested Saturday that officials should “find the additional funds necessary (beyond the contingency funds) to fully fund the November SNAP payments.” They could draw from a tranche of more than $23 billion that came from tariffs, he said.

If officials choose to fully fund November payments, they must do so by the end of Nov. 3, he said; however, if officials choose not to fully fund the November benefits, they are to use the total remaining contingency funds to make a partial payment by Nov. 5.

In the new filings, officials said that they recently paid $450 million in contingency funds to states for SNAP administrative expenses and $300 million for unrelated grants. They said that they will pay another $450 million for SNAP operations and an additional $150 million for the Nutrition Assistance Program grants.

That leaves $4.6 billion in contingency money for November SNAP benefits, which “will all be obligated to cover 50% of eligible households’ current allotments,” Patrick Penn, a USDA official, said in a declaration to the court.

People whose SNAP applications are verified in November will not receive any money, according to the document.

The USDA is preparing to notify states of the update on Nov. 3, which will prompt states to calculate how much in benefits each household will receive, Penn said.

States will likely have difficulty distributing the reduced SNAP benefits, he said.

“For at least some States, USDA’s understanding is that the system changes States must implement to provide the reduced benefit amounts will take anywhere from a few weeks to up to several months,” he said.

Officials said they opted not to use tariff revenue or additional money because those funds are required for child nutrition efforts and other programs.

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Tyler Durden Mon, 11/03/2025 - 14:40

Sliding Cardboard Box Sales Sets Off Economic Alarm Bells Ahead Of Holiday Shopping Season 

Nearly every physical good in the modern economy is transported or stored in a corrugated cardboard box. That's why box shipments act as a reliable real-time economic barometer, especially very useful now, as the government shutdown enters day 33 and key agencies like the BLS have halted official economic data releases, leaving private high-frequency data sets to fill the void.

The latest box shipment data from Bloomberg, citing a report by the Fibre Box Association, shows some of the weakest volumes in years, reflecting waning consumer sentiment and potentially signaling a subdued holiday shopping season. These shipments were at their lowest levels since the third quarter of 2015.

Bloomberg Intelligence noted that box orders remained flat or below normal in October, while consumer sentiment hit a five-month low and manufacturing activity contracted for an eighth straight month. 

The economic picture is cloudy: US manufacturing surveys were mixed in October, while Goldman analysts warned the other day about waning consumer sentiment. 

"We're not getting a lot of lift, obviously, from the economy," Packaging Corp of America President Thomas Hassfurther warned last month, adding, "And these starts and stops that we've seen consistently go on throughout the year relative to tariffs and a bunch of other things certainly are impacting the business."

Here are dismal earnings from top box makers companies point to a slowing economy: 

• Smurfit Westrock posted an 8.7% YoY decline in Q3 North American box volumes, sending shares to their lowest since mid-2024.

• Packaging Corp. of America shares also slid, and International Paper cut its sales outlook for both 2025 and 2027, triggering a nearly 13% stock plunge.

• International Paper now expects US box shipments to fall 1–1.5% in 2025, reversing earlier forecasts for growth, citing soft consumer sentiment, trade uncertainty, and a sluggish housing market. CEO Andy Silvernail said targets were "obviously" adjusted downward absent a "major pickup" in US and European volumes.

Dismal box shipments and earnings build on an earlier report from Deloitte's holiday sales forecast released in early September, which warned that the upcoming holiday shopping season could see one of the slowest growth rates since the pandemic (read report). 

Meanwhile.

Atlanta Fed Q3 GDP tracker at 4.0% https://t.co/CUj9betrQL

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 3, 2025

Just a mixed picture. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/03/2025 - 14:05

Kimberly-Clark Suffers Biggest Loss Since 'Black Monday' After Unveiling $40 Billion Merger With Tylenol-Maker Kenvue

Update (1405ET):

Kimberly-Clark shares remain down around 14.5% in late-afternoon trading.  If the losses hold into the close, it would mark the company's steepest one-day drop since October 16, 1987, or just days before the Black Monday crash on October 19, 1987. Earlier, the Kleenex maker unveiled plans to acquire Tylenol producer Kenvue in a $48.7 billion cash-and-stock deal. The announcement sent Kenvue soaring, up 20%. 

Shares of Kimberly-Clark are at their lowest point since late 2019. 

Wall Street analysts are divided on the proposed merger between Kimberly-Clark and Kenvue. Some expect short-term pressure on the stock, while others praised the merger as "strategically transformative"...

Commentary from Wall Street desks (courtsey of Bloomberg):

RBC Capital (Nik Modi)

• Says the deal is strategically transformative for Kimberly-Clark in the long run as it adds significant positive diversification to its business mix

• "We believe it will take investors some time to process the long-term implications and would expect KMB shares to come under pressure today and likely trade sideways until investors get more context around recent KVUE regulation/litigation headlines as well as confidence that Kimberly-Clark can turn Kenvue's business around"

Vital Knowledge (Adam Crisafulli)

• "KVUE brings some iconic brands into the KMB umbrella, and the ~$21/shr purchase price isn't extremely expensive (this only gets KVUE back to where it was trading in Sept.), especially considering ~$2B in synergies, but KMB investors will be wary of the deal given the mounting legal risks facing Tylenol"

• Says the consumer staples industry has struggled for several quarters due to macro pressures. KVUE has experienced particular strain given company-specific challenges, such as management turnover and scrutiny from the White House

Bloomberg Intelligence (Diana Gomes)

• Says Kimberly-Clark's cash-and-stock offer for Kenvue reinforces the view that any recovery in Kenvue sales is based on an aggressive step-up in investment, which would act as a further drag on mid-term profit

• "Another Kenvue organic sales miss in 3Q and lack of overlap in over-the-counter and beauty limits realization of synergies, pegged at 8% to combined operating expenses" 

 *   *   * 

Consumer products company Kimberly-Clark Corporation announced it will acquire Tylenol maker Kenvue in a cash-and-stock transaction valued at nearly $49 billion, marking one of the largest consumer health mergers in history. 

Kimberly-Clark revealed in a press release that the deal values Kenvue at 14.3x its latest twelve months (LTM) adjusted EBITDA. In return, Kenvue shareholders will receive $3.50 in cash and .14625 Kimberly-Clark shares per Kenvue share, for a total of about $ 21.01 per share. The deal is valued at $48.7 billion. 

The deal is expected to close in 2H 2026. Upon completion, Kimberly-Clark shareholders will own 54% of the combined company, while Kenvue shareholders will own 46%. Both boards have unanimously approved the acquisition. JPMorgan Chase is providing committed financing for the deal. 

The merger unites two mega consumer-product giants, creating a global health and wellness powerhouse with top brands, including Kleenex, Huggies, Tylenol, Neutrogena, Listerine, and Band-Aid, that reach consumers worldwide. 

Here's the justification for the merger:

• Combines Kimberly-Clark's commercial execution and digital marketing capabilities with Kenvue's science-backed innovation and healthcare professional networks.

• Expands global footprint across key growth categories in personal care and health.

• Enhanced R&D and quality investments to accelerate product innovation and address evolving consumer health needs.

• Kimberly-Clark CEO Mike Hsu will continue leading the merged company, supported by senior executives from both firms.

Based on Kimberly-Clark's current projections, the merger would generate 2025 annual net revenues of about $32 billion and adjusted EBITDA of about $7 billion. 

All sounds great, but this comes at a time when Tylenol faces political scrutiny via the Trump administration, warning mothers to avoid giving their newborns acetaminophen.

Related:

• "Don't Take It": Trump Warns Pregnant Women To Avoid Tylenol Over Autism Concerns

• Tylenol Manufacturer Resists Proposed Label Changes

In markets, Kimberly-Clark shares tumbled 15%, while Kenvue shares jumped 20%. 

The question now is whether government regulators will approve the deal, especially given President Trump's recent comments surrounding Tylenol.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/03/2025 - 14:05

From the Federal Reserve: The October 2025 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices

he October 2025 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) addressed changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households over the past three months, which generally correspond to the third quarter of 2025.

Regarding loans to businesses over the third quarter, survey respondents reported, on balance, tighter lending standards for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to firms of all sizes.2 Banks also reported, on balance, stronger demand for C&I loans from large and middle-market firms and basically unchanged demand from small firms. Furthermore, banks reported generally unchanged standards and demand for most commercial real estate (CRE) loan categories.

For loans to households, banks reported basically unchanged lending standards and stronger demand for residential mortgage loans and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) on balance. For consumer loans, standards remained basically unchanged for credit card and other consumer loans and eased for auto loans. Meanwhile, demand remained basically unchanged for credit card and other consumer loans and weakened for auto loans.

The October SLOOS included a set of special questions inquiring about the likelihood of approving C&I and credit card loan applications in comparison with the beginning of the year—by firm size and trade exposure levels for C&I loans and by borrower risk for credit card loans. Banks reported being more likely to approve C&I loan applications from both large and small firms with low trade exposures and less likely to approve C&I loan applications from firms of all sizes with high trade exposures. Banks also reported being more likely to approve credit card applications from super-prime and prime borrowers but less likely to approve applications from near-prime or subprime borrowers.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph on Residential Real Estate demand is from the Senior Loan Officer Survey Charts.

This graph is for demand and shows that demand has been weak since late 2021, but has picked up slightly recently.
The left graph is from 1990 to 2014.  The right graph is from 2015 to Q3 2025.

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

Brief excerpt:

Another monthly update on rents.

Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. Slower household formation and increased supply (more multi-family completions) has kept asking rents under pressure.

More recently, immigration policy has become a negative for rentals.

Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.9% Year-over-year ...

The national median rent dipped by 0.8% in October, and now stands at $1,381. This was the third consecutive month-over-month decline, as we’re now in the midst of the rental market’s off-season. It’s likely that we’ll continue to see further modest rent declines to close out the year.

Realtor.com: 26th Consecutive Month with Year-over-year Decline in Rents

September 2025 marks the 26th straight month of year-over-year rent decline for 0-2 bedroom properties since trend data began in 2020. Asking rents dipped by $36, or -2.1%, year over year.

There is much more in the article.

The post Why Is Healthcare Expensive? appeared first on CEPR.

US Manufacturing Surveys Mixed In October; Prices Down, Production Up

Amid the month-long vacuum of macro data, thanks to the shutdown, 'soft' survey data has become almost the only leg left standing to judge the economy by (absent the housing data).

Following better-than-expected prints across Europe, and beats in Brazil and Canada, this morning's S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI rose more than expected to 52.5 (52.2 exp), up from 52.0 - tracking hard data higher.

That signaled a third successive month that the S&P Global PMI has posted above the critical 50.0 no-change mark and indicative of a solid improvement in operating conditions that was in line with the survey’s trend pace.

The PMI was supported in October by concurrent and accelerated gains in both output and new orders.

Production was increased at a solid pace, whilst the gain in new orders was the best recorded in 20 months. Growth in new work has been registered consistently throughout the year to date, albeit to varying degrees, and panelists noted in October an uplift in market demand and success in securing new contracts. However, October’s growth was increasingly reliant on the domestic market as new export orders faltered.

BUT...

...as usual in the baffle 'em with bullshit world, ISM's US Manufacturing PMI missed expectations, falling from 49.1 to 48.7 (worse than the 49.5 exp) - the 8th straight month of contraction (below 50)

Source: Bloomberg

“US manufacturers reported a solid start to the fourth quarter with production rising at an increased rate in response to an encouragingly robust jump in new orders," according to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

"However, lift the hood and the picture is not so healthy."

“Most worrying is the unprecedented rise in unsold stock reported in October, widely linked to weaker than anticipated sales to customers, especially in export markets, which could trigger a downshifting of production in the coming months unless demand revives.

Indeed, ISM shows prices falling fast and new orders and employment improving MoM (though both below 50 - contracting).

The index of prices paid for raw materials fell 3.9 points to 58, the lowest since the start of the year. Since a recent peak in April, during the height of the tariffs rollout, the price gauge has dropped nearly 12 points...

Source: Bloomberg

Companies have also become less optimistic about the year ahead, with sentiment back down close to the gloomy levels seen around the April tariff announcements.

"US trade policy uncertainties are again a big factor in dampening business spirits, with tariff policies being increasingly blamed both on rising export losses and import supply chain disruptions.

These export and import worries are being exacerbated by more domestically focused political concerns, including the federal shutdown, which are manifesting themselves most prominently in consumer-focused industries."

Tariffs remained a key source of higher input costs during October with S&P Global's latest data showing another round of historically elevated inflation – albeit the lowest since February.

Selling prices were raised markedly in response, and to a quicker degree than September’s recent low.

Finally, Williamson notes that business confidence among producers of consumer goods is now down to its lowest for two years "as firms growing increasingly worried about household spending in the US and falling sales to consumers in export markets."

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/03/2025 - 10:06

(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 48.7% in October, down from 49.1% in September. The employment index was at 46.0%, up from 45.3% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 49.4%, up from 48.9%.

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 48.7% October 2025 ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in October for the eighth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.

The report was issued today by Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.7 percent in October, a 0.4-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 49.1 percent recorded in September. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 66th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the second month in October following one month of growth; the figure of 49.4 percent is 0.5 percentage point higher than the 48.9 percent recorded in September. The October reading of the Production Index (48.2 percent) is 2.8 percentage points lower than September’s figure of 51 percent. The Prices Index remained in expansion (or ‘increasing’ territory), registering 58 percent, down 3.9 percentage points compared to the reading of 61.9 percent reported in September. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 47.9 percent, up 1.7 percentage points compared to the 46.2 percent recorded in September. The Employment Index registered 46 percent, up 0.7 percentage point from September’s figure of 45.3 percent.
emphasis added

This suggests manufacturing contracted for the eighth consecutive month in October..  This was below the consensus forecast, and employment was weak and prices very strong.

​​​​​​​Amazon & OpenAI Strike $38 Billion Compute Deal As Microsoft Exclusive Ends

The circular AI funding headline arrived 30 minutes ahead of the U.S. cash session.

And the circular funding headlines arrive

*AMAZON INKS $38 BILLION DEAL WITH OPENAI TO SUPPLY NVIDIA CHIPS

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 3, 2025

This time, Amazon shares jumped 6%, extending last week's post-earnings rally after news broke of a massive $38 billion deal between Amazon Web Services (AWS) and OpenAI.

*AMAZON JUMPS 6.1% ON DEAL TO SUPPLY OPENAI WITH NVIDIA CHIPS https://t.co/hubchYVq5T

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 3, 2025

The seven-year contract will see OpenAI run and scale its core AI workloads on AWS's cloud infrastructure, an agreement that takes effect immediately and positions AWS as a key compute provider for OpenAI's expanding portfolio of generative-AI products, including ChatGPT.

The AWS-OpenAI deal comes just one week after Microsoft's exclusive cloud rights with OpenAI expired, freeing up Sam Altman's AI chatbot startup to sign compute deals with other hyperscalers. 

Amazon said the new partnership will provide dedicated compute capacity for both AI training and inference, powering next-generation models and ChatGPT-like services:

The infrastructure deployment that AWS is building for OpenAI features a sophisticated architectural design optimized for maximum AI processing efficiency and performance. Clustering the NVIDIA GPUs—both GB200s and GB300s—via Amazon EC2 UltraServers on the same network enables low-latency performance across interconnected systems, allowing OpenAI to efficiently run workloads with optimal performance. The clusters are designed to support various workloads, from serving inference for ChatGPT to training next generation models, with the flexibility to adapt to OpenAI's evolving needs.

OpenAI has been on a dealmaking spree, signing cloud and hardware pacts totaling a staggering $1.4 trillion with Nvidia, Broadcom, Oracle, and Google as AI data center bubble concerns mount.

ZeroHedge Premium subs have been informed about how these circular flowing deals work, described in a recent note titled The Stunning Math Behind The AI Vendor Financing "Circle Jerk"...

"OpenAI will immediately start utilizing AWS compute as part of this partnership, with all capacity targeted to be deployed before the end of 2026, and the ability to expand further into 2027 and beyond," Amazon wrote in a statement. 

The deal highlights AWS's large-scale AI infrastructure and brings it closer to frontier model developers, including clients such as Peloton, Thomson Reuters, Comscore, and Triomics. 

OpenAI co-founder and CEO Sam Altman stated, "Scaling frontier AI requires massive, reliable compute," adding, "Our partnership with AWS strengthens the broad compute ecosystem that will power this next era and bring advanced AI to everyone." 

However, doesn't Amazon need all these vast computing resources for its own operations, yet in this case, it serves as a seller of computing capacity... 

In recent weeks, Goldman's James Schneider told clients, "The net impact of our model updates extends the duration of peak datacenter occupancy well into 2026 (from the end of 2025 previously). After this point, we forecast a modest, but gradual loosening of supply/demand balance in 2027..."

Is this GS model wrong, and peak datacenter occupancy comes much earlier? 

Related: 

• OpenAI-Microsoft Friction Grows As ChatGPT App Growth Slows, Data Center Buildout Risks Overcapacity

The AWS-OpenAI compute deal was enough to send Amazon shares up 5% in the early cash session in New York, building on gains from last week's earnings. 

It's only a matter of time before another AI compute deal is unveiled ... you can almost guarantee it'll happen when AI stocks start to lose momentum ... like clockwork. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/03/2025 - 09:50

Putin And Xi Are 'Serious People' & 'Not To Be Toyed With': Trump Interview

President Trump offered some candid and revealing thoughts on his Russian and Chinese counterparts Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping during a CBS 60 Minutes interview which aired Sunday.

Trump has not appeared on the program in a half-decade, but had much to say, especially regarding America's two top 'superpower' rivals. He called Putin and Xi "very strong leaders" who are "tough" and "smart" but which are "not to be toyed with."

AFP/Getty Images

When asked which of the two was more difficult to deal with, Trump replied "both". He described they are "Both tough. Both smart. They’re both very strong leaders. These are people not to be toyed with" - and seemed conciliatory without going on the verbal attack.

He followed with more commentary which suggested a high degree of respect for them as leaders. "They’re serious people, not the type to walk in talking about how nice the weather is," Trump conceded.

Trump also in the interview took the opportunity to reiterate that the Russia-Ukraine war would never have occurred under his leadership.

"That was a war that would’ve never happened if I was president," he said, and then noted Putin had himself acknowledged this. "I inherited a country where Putin thinks he’s winning. Joe Biden was the president when it happened."

It was at this point in the interview that Trump said he has "a very good relationship" with Putin while expressing hope that the US-Moscow relations can be turned around.

Despite setbacks, including the effective cancelation of the Budapest summit, Trump expressed he hopes to get a lasting truce in Ukraine "in a couple months" - though battlefield realities suggest this remains wishful thinking and not based in any solid developments toward peace or compromise.

"We’re gonna get it done… [Putin] wants to come in and he wants to trade with us, and he wants to make a lot of money for Russia, and I think that’s great," Trump said.

As for China, one notable moment was addressing rare-earth minerals and potential tit-for-tat amid a trade war. "We got no rare-earth threat… We have tremendous amounts of dollars pouring in, because we have very big tariffs, almost 50%," Trump explained.

Russian media has been taking note...

'Putin & Xi NOT to be toyed with' — Trump pic.twitter.com/PpS6bdjdUZ

— RT (@RT_com) November 3, 2025

This rhetoric from the president in the 60 Minutes interview seems a marked change compared to that of early September, wherein he said the following:

President Donald Trump accused Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday of "conspiring against" the United States as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin attended China's military parade commemorating the end of World War II and victory over Japan.

"May President Xi and the wonderful people of China have a great and lasting day of celebration. Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un, as you conspire against The United States of America," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Still, the general vibe and tone of the fresh CBS appearance seemed a return to Trump as 'peace president' who is more interested in major deal-making around the globe as opposed to starting conflicts. However, we should note that Venezuela would certainly not agree with such a characterization of Washington policy at this point.

Tyler Durden Mon, 11/03/2025 - 09:15

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.3% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  
Inventory was up 16.5% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 17.9%), and down 6.2% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 6.5%). 
Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed more most of that gap, but it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.
This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of October 31st, inventory was at 857 thousand (7-day average), compared to 868 thousand the prior week.  
Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube