Anticipation of recovery is just a fiction, it is not there

This is a quote from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

We still do not see that this is a real recovery

What they are referring to is a need for greater than 1.6% Global GDP growth for 2010.

Tumbling profits in the real economy, previous over-investment in real estate and rising unemployment will continue to constrain private consumption and investment for the foreseeable future.

The UNCTAD is also pointing to recent commodities increases as pure speculation, increasing excessive risk.

A more detailed report puts the financial crisis squarely on unregulated derivatives and market deregulation.

The main cause of the global financial and economic crisis is found in financial markets deregulation. This allowed uncontrolled innovation in financial instruments, which obscured creditor-debtor relations and led to excessive risk taking. The result was that finance came to predominate over the real economy.

h/t Financial Armageddon.

This is a side note, but they are tracking on cheap labor shipping back remittances and how that is sharply down (chart, pdf).

Somehow I don't think trading people, labor arbitrage is helping the U.S. worker or helping the middle class recover economically.