Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for May 2010

S&P has released their Case-Shiller Home Price Index for May 2010.

The annual growth rates in 15 of the 20 MSAs and the 10- and 20-City Composites improved in May compared to those reported for April 2010. The 10-City Composite is up 5.4% and the 20-City Composite is up 4.6% from where they were in May 2009.

To see solid analysis, graphs, go to Calculated Risk and EconomPic Data.

One needs to note these price increases are during the housing tax credit of $8,000. It's not until July that housing prices without subsidies will be known.

From the S&P press release:

"While May’s report on its own looks somewhat positive, a broader look at home price levels over the past year still do not indicate that the housing market is in any form of sustained recovery,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “Since reaching its recent trough in April 2009, the housing market has really only stabilized at this lower level. The two Composites have improved between 5 and 6% since then, but this is no better than the improvement they had registered as of October 2009. The last seven months have basically been flat.”

“The May 2010 data for 15 of the 20 MSAs and the two Composites show an improvement in annual returns compared to April’s report. With the month-over-month data, while 19 of the 20 MSAs and the two Composites were positive, we are in a strong seasonal period for home prices, so that was largely expected. In addition, there may still be some residual impact from the homebuyers’ tax credit, since they affect any purchase that closes through June 30th 2010. We need to watch where the housing markets
will go after these temporary stimuli go away. June’s existing and new home sales and housing starts data do not show much real improvement in those statistics either. It still looks possible that the housing market might bounce along the bottom for the foreseeable future, before showing any real improvement that will filter through to the rest of the economy.”

Headline buzz versus details and the stock market reactions thereof, never cease to amaze me. In spite of the warm fuzzies of Wall Street, there is a leg in the Case-Shiller data releases.

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home ownership rates, vacacy rates, Q2 2010

If anyone is interested the data is here.

Homeownership Rate (HR)
The homeownership rate in the second quarter 2010 (66.9 percent) was lower than the second quarter 2009 rate (67.4 percent). In the South and West, the homeownership rates were lower than a year ago, while the Northeast and Midwest showed no significant change from corresponding second quarter 2009 rates.

Rental Vacancy Rate (RVR)
The rental vacancy rate in second quarter 2010 (10.6 percent) remained approximately the same as the second quarter 2009 rate (also 10.6 percent).

Homeowner Vacancy Rate (HVR)
The homeowner vacancy rate in second quarter 2010 (2.5 percent) remained approximately the same as the second quarter 2009 rate (also 2.5 percent).

I don't know what to make out of the rental vacancy rate, I'm thinking people cannot make rent, and still cannot but I can't see anything to prove that. With migration flows and labor mobility....unclear.

Bloomberg drop in rental vacancy rates

Why I'm putting these in the comments is they are contradictory and also counter-intuitive.

Bloomberg is reporting (notice contrast to gov. stats) a drop in rental vacancies.

U.S. apartment landlords are seeing a surge in rentals as mounting foreclosures reduce homeownership and an improving job market for young adults encourages them to find their own places to live.

The number of occupied apartments increased by 215,000 in the 64 largest U.S. markets in the first half of the year, according to MPF Research, almost twice the units added in all of 2009 and the most since the firm began tracking the data in 1992. The vacancy rate declined to 6.6 percent last month from 8.2 percent in December.

HAMP "redefaults"

You've got to read this gem, TMTGM on how Treasury "calculates redefaults" on HAMP.

When the government cooks the books, no surprise they won't crack down on corporations.