Goldman Sachs Economic Forecast unemployment peaking in 2011

Yes, not 2010, that's 2011, according to an economic forecast by Goldman Sachs.

On James Pethokoukis Reuter's blog, is Goldman Sachs 2011 forecast would be an absolute disaster for Dems. Contained within are leaked Goldman Sachs economic predictions:

The key features of our 2011 outlook:

  1. a strengthening in growth from 2.1% on average in 2010 to 2.4% in 2011, with real GDP rising at an above-potential 3½% pace in late 2011
  2. A peaking in unemployment in mid-2011 at about 10.75%
  3. extremely low inflation – close to zero on a core basis during 2011
  4. a continuation of the Fed’s (near) zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) throughout 2011.

That said we see risks that could upset these markets. On the one hand, we might be underestimating the vigor of the economic recovery, and therefore the pressures for Fed tightening. In addition, surging asset prices and worries about a “bubble” could prompt Fed officials to tighten before such a move seems warranted on real-economy grounds. On the other hand, the economy (and the markets) could struggle under the weight of credit restraint for small businesses, weakness in commercial real estate markets, or fiscal tightening, especially by state and local governments.

While the piece goes on further to describe Democrats being crushed and even opening up a possibility for a 3rd party candidate in a Presidential race, we all are saying...

2011 as the peak of unemployment?

Let's see, I believe a recession lasting longer than 3 years is categorized as a depression. Technically if GDP is positive, odds are this will be categorized as a jobless recovery but we need ~2% GDP growth to maintain the status what does Goldman Sach's forecast sound like to you?

Huge h/t to Calculated Risk.

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Is the Goldman Sachs economic

Is the Goldman Sachs economic outlook an actual document that we can review somewhere? Is it publicly accessible?

Goldman Sachs documents

You can hunt around but I can tell you on another bank's economic projections I got emailed for copyright violation, i.e. it was not public, so if I cannot find something public, online, available, and if I can find it, I almost always link to that, the press release itself instead of another news outlet overviewing a document,

It might be to clients or it might be I couldn't locate it and it is available.


It never fails to amaze me how out of touch some organisations are when making fore-casts, in particular this example of Goldman Sachs unemployment "guestimate".

Their claim that unemployment will peak in 2011 at about 10.75% is way off the mark. Public sector redundancies aside, Atos Origin Healthcare who are contracted to operate the "Work Capability" assessments on the behalf of the DWP, are rejecting record numbers claiming disability allowance. At a conservative estimate, this alone will add an extra 1 million to the unemployment figures.