Manufacturing & Trade Inventories & Sales for November 2009

The Manufacturing & Trade Inventories Sales report is out for November 2009. This report includes retailers, wholesalers and manufacturers.

Sales were up 2.0% from October 2009 and Inventories were up 0.4% from October 2009.

For the year to year comparison, sales are still down 0.4% from November 2008 and inventories were down 11.1% from November 2008. Remember in November 2008 the official recession has gone on for 11 months.

Sales to inventory ratios is now 1.28 for the month. This is actually good, yet don't get your panties all in a bunch until you read the below on wholesale data, released earlier in the week.

The more the inventory/sales ratio returns to pre-recession levels the more it is implied hiring will begin to manufacture new goods. Of course that also requires demand return to pre-recession levels.

inventories sales ratio Nov. 2009


Merchant Wholesales were the most of both sales and inventory increases, 3.3% for sales and 1.4% for inventories.

So, here is the wholesale sales and inventories November report.

Now for wholesale, sales were up 3.3% from October 2009 and Durable goods has a sign of life, with a 1.9% increase from last month.

Back to the overall report and how inventory increases were mainly wholesale. From the wholesale report we see inventories rose 1.5%. That's the largest percentage jump in 5 years. Of those increases, in durable goods, we see software up 2.2%. In non-durable goods (up 4.2%), we see petroleum up 7.0% and then this one, farm products raw materials up 29.8%.

Farm product sales was also up 29.6% from last month. Note, these reports do not adjust for prices. So, what jumped in cost last month? Oil and farm products.

That's not too good for consumers either, for it implies increased food costs and gas costs later. So, here's this report but is it implying increased economic activity or inflation? Since both farm products and oil (the main two elements of these inventory and sales increases), have had massive price increases, it appears to be the latter.

For reference, here is October 2009 report.

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You beat me to this

Some people are expecting an inventory bounce to pull us out of recession - but will it materialize? EconomPic has been documenting this 'bounce' - here and here. - Financial Information for the Rest of Us.

ooo, validation!

Yeah, this is why I do all of these EIs from "scratch" of by first principles.

The MSM, if they report them or even bloggers, if they report them, either report the headline and even if they report some conclusion, they do not give you the detailed reasoning as to why.

Most report the headlines (see the retail sales and in reference to another headline that was so damn wrong it wasn't funny)

So, this is one of the purposes on the site, we have mimetex (for mathematical equations, see admin forum) and what I want to improve on is graphing directly from spreadsheet data. Honestly I'm too lazy because I usually find the graphs available from gov. and my fav. econ geek site, St. Louis Fed but sometimes we could use some original graphing.

Anywho if you write these up, dig around into the tables and stats for that is where the real answers lie. (buried).

Advanced Technologies trade deficit widening

A very good article showing the U.S. is busy offshore outsourcing the most advanced and complex skills jobs and technologies possible, adding to the trade deficit (never mind offshore outsourcing America's future)

industry week.