The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Survey is out. The PMI is at 53.6%, down 2.1% from last month. Anything above 50 is growth.
Production dropped -3.4% in one month, but is still in growth.
Employment is down -2.3% from last month, now at 50.8%.
On inventories most manufacturers reported their levels were about right with around a third reported them as too low. Inventories being too low would be a signal for new hiring.
New Orders, while above 50% for 4 months now, at 60.3%, is the 3rd lowest month survey result since August 2009.
MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE NOVEMBER 2009 |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Index |
Series Index Nov. |
Series Index Oct. |
% Point Change |
Direction |
Rate of Change |
Trend (Months) |
PMI | 53.6 | 55.7 | -2.1 | Growing | Slower | 4 |
New Orders | 60.3 | 58.5 | +1.8 | Growing | Faster | 5 |
Production | 59.9 | 63.3 | -3.4 | Growing | Slower | 6 |
Employment | 50.8 | 53.1 | -2.3 | Growing | Slower | 2 |
Supplier Deliveries | 55.7 | 56.9 | -1.2 | Slowing | Slower | 6 |
Inventories | 41.3 | 46.9 | -5.6 | Contracting | Faster | 43 |
Customers' Inventories | 37.0 | 38.5 | -1.5 | Too Low | Faster | 8 |
Prices | 55.0 | 65.0 | -10.0 | Increasing | Slower | 5 |
Backlog of Orders | 52.0 | 53.5 | -1.5 | Growing | Slower | 4 |
Exports | 56.0 | 55.5 | +0.5 | Growing | Faster | 5 |
Imports | 51.5 | 51.0 | +0.5 | Growing | Faster | 3 |
OVERALL ECONOMY | Growing | Slower | 7 | |||
Manufacturing Sector | Growing | Slower | 4 |
Relationship of PMI to GDP
The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through November (45.4 percent) corresponds to a 1.3 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). However, if the PMI for November (53.6 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 3.9 percent increase in real GDP annually.
Paul Krugman warning double dip recession
Paul Krugman is warning on a double dip recession, brought on in part by today's ISM report:
He links to some bad news reports that Stimulus construction jobs are already fading.
I didn't track on specifically what infrastructure has already been spent via Stimulus but that's something someone else might want to take a look at and write in a comment here or under the CBO post.