The February ISM Manufacturing Survey somewhat recovered from last month's plunge. PMI rose by 1.9 percentage points to 53.2%. This range is really mediocre growth for manufacturing. New orders did rebound with a 3.3 percentage point increase. Yet production just completely imploded, the second month in a row. Many blame the unusually bad weather and freezing cold.
The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders declined by -1.0% for January 2014, but December 2013 new orders were revised downward to a -5.3% plunge. The better news of this report is core capital goods increased by 1.7%. For the last three of four months durable goods new orders as a whole have declined.
The January ISM Manufacturing Survey PMI was pummeled with an astounding -5.2 percentage point drop in a month. PMI is barely breathing any growth now, down to 51.3%. New orders simply imploded with a -13.2 percentage point decline. This is the largest monthly decline in the history of the ISM manufacturing survey for new orders by our calculations. Many are blaming the unusually bad weather and freezing cold.
The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders plunged by -4.3% for December 2013 after a 2.6% increase in November. The really bad news in this report is core capital goods declined by -1.3%. For the last two of three months durable goods new orders as a whole have declined. While December is shaping up to a bad month for the economy, a word of caution as durable goods are often revised dramatically.
The December ISM Manufacturing Survey shows PMI decreased -0.3 percentage points to 57.0%. This is still strong growth, the 2nd highest in 2013, although manufacturing inventories contracted. Overall manufacturing looks stable with 13 of the 18 industries reporting growth. The employment index is at a high not seen since June 2011.
The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders increased by 3.5% for November 2013 after a -0.7% decrease in October. The really good news in this report is the growth in core capital goods. New orders in core capital goods increased 4.5% for November This report is often revised dramatically, yet even inventories did not decline. Even without volatile aircraft durable goods new orders increased.
The November ISM Manufacturing Survey shows PMI increased 0.9 percentage points to 57.3%. This is another year high. Overall manufacturing looks strong with 15 of the 18 industries reporting growth. The employment index is at a high not seen since December 2012. New orders and production both increased.
The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders decreased by -2.0% for October 2013 after a 4.1% increase in September. The decline was mainly aircraft as transportation durable goods new orders by themselves dropped -5.9%. Without transportation orders, which aircraft is a large part, durable goods new orders fell by -0.1%. We also estimate Q3 GDP will be revised upward to 3.2% on inventories.
The October ISM Manufacturing Survey shows PMI increased 0.2 percentage points to 56.4% to another year high. Seems the survey results held in spite of the economic sabotage government shutdown although production figures declined by -1.8 percentage points. Increases in Inventories and slowing Supplier Deliveries is the reason PMI increased.
The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders increased by 3.7% for September 2013, but the gains are due to volatile aircraft and parts orders. Without transportation orders, which aircraft is a large part, durable goods new orders fell by -0.1%. Shipments increased by 0.2% and are at a record high level.
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