portugal

Guess What Portugal, You're Junk

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Portugal was just downgraded by Moody's to junk status:

Moody’s cut its rating on Portugal’s long-term government bonds to a non-investment-grade rating of Ba2 from Baa1 and said the outlook was negative, suggesting more downgrades lie in store.

The ratings agency cited the risk that Portugal will need a second bailout before it can tap the bond markets again, and that private sector lenders will have to share the pain.

It also warned that Portugal might fall short of the financial targets it worked out with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund under the terms of its bailout because of the “formidable challenges the country is facing in reducing spending, increasing tax compliance, achieving economic growth and supporting the banking system.”

Greece was told by S&P that their new bail out plan, simply because they are rolling over debt to a longer term repayment schedule, is a sovereign default de facto.

Even the United States has been scolded and threatened by credit rating agencies.

One of the big fears is the European crisis spreads and creates contagion. Seems the credit ratings agencies are determined to make that happen.

Dear Portugal, You Get a Bail Out and a Recession

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Portugal is getting an IMF, EU, ECB crafted bail out of €78 billion where the austerity terms will throw them into recession.

Portugal's main opposition party met European and IMF officials on Wednesday and said they would consider whether to back a 78-billion-euro bailout after a source said the terms would propel the economy into two years of recession.

Why would the opposing party say that? The IMF is requiring Portugal to enact draconian cuts to the deficit, 9.1% to 5.9% of GDP in 2011 and less than a 3% GDP to debt ratio by 2013. The Guardian:

Health and education spending will be cut by €745m, civil service pay and pensions will be frozen, and people on state pensions above €1,500 a month will have them reduced.

Civil service staffing is to be squeezed by 1% a year in central government, while regional administrations and town halls will be told to shed 2% of their employees annually.

Banks will get €12 billion of the bail out. Earlier Banco Português de Negócios was nationalized, so the bail out requires Portugal to sell it at a greatly reduced price. In fact there is no minimum price specified.

Portugal is expected to reduce public spending by 3.4% of its GDP this year and raise an extra 1.7% of GDP by raising taxes on cars, tobacco and electricity and getting rid of income and corporation tax loopholes.

Thar Blows Portugal Straight into the IMF Austerity Plan

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Portugal is asking for a bail out.

Portugal's prime minister said Wednesday his country has asked for financing assistance from the European Union due to its high debts and difficulty raising money on international markets.

The amount is €80 billion, with the Wall Street Journal reporting €90 billion.

Germany is already backing the bail out.

Of course the help will have a catch, that infamous, vague term, austerity. So far this has been an attack on workers, wages and social safety nets.

The U.K., which has cuts social safety nets, workers will contribute £4bn to the Portugal bail out....in order to cut social safety nets, workers and wages.

The Treasury said the UK was not planning to offer bilateral assistance to Portugal in the way that it did to Ireland.

But it confirmed that Britain could be required to provide a loan of up to about £4.4bn – 13.6% of the €37.5bn remaining in the EU "disasters fund" after it was drawn upon by Ireland – as well as 4.5% of any IMF loan.

Earlier in March, Portugal voted against austerity measures and the Portugal prime minister resigned.

Seems the ECB, EU and the infamous IMF are putting together an austerity plan for Portugal which will take 2 to 3 weeks.

Portugal Votes Against "Austerity"

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Anyone notice a pattern? The banks bring about economic armageddon. Governments bail out the banks Carte blanche and then insist on screwing workers everywhere, from pensions to retirement to wages. The new crisis is under the guise that nation must now get out of debt.

What's wrong with this picture? Quite a bit according to Portugal's Parliament:

Opposition parties said the budget - the fourth package of austerity measures in a year - went too far.

"Today, every opposition party rejected the measures proposed by the government to prevent that Portugal resort to external aid," Mr Socrates said in a televised address.

"The opposition removed from the government the conditions to govern."

The vote late on Wednesday came on the eve of a European Union summit to finalise a eurozone debt crisis plan.

On Thursday, Eurozone leaders begin a two-day summit during which they hope to finalise details of a "grand bargain" to deal with the 17-nation group's debt burden.

The country's borrowing costs have surged as investors worried over its financial health.

Lisbon has argued its situation is different from Greece and the Irish Republic - both of which have agreed to bail-outs from the European Union and International Monetary Fund.

It says that its deficit and debt are lower than those nations, that it has not suffered a bubble in property prices and that its banks are sound.

Jose Socrates, Portugal's prime minister, resigned in protest that his plan was rejected. While Parliament won this round, when the EU and IMF come knocking, odds on Portugal's workers are going to lose.

European Bail Out Brew Bubbles Over Again

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Europe's never ending sovereign debt and default problems are rearing their ugly head once again. Just a rumor hitting the rounds that Portugal is being pressed to take a bail out, even when those rumors are denied was enough to send their bonds reeling. As it was the European Central Bank has to buy Portugal's bonds.

The ECB intervened to buy government bonds on the secondary market.

"They're buying five-years and 10-years in Portugal, whatever people are offering really," one trader said.

Another trader said the ECB appeared to be buying Greek and Irish bonds too. EU sources say the central bank has not yet bought Spanish government debt.

Credit default swaps for sovereign debt jumped 11 basis points on Portugal and 26.5 basis points for Ireland.

There is a domino theory that if Portugal is the next nation to be bailed out and saved from sovereign debt, Spain will assuredly also go south. Spain is a much larger economy. Ireland & Greece have already taken bail outs. It is assumed Portugal is next in the domino falling list. Contagion is also assumed when it gets to Spain. Contagion means the PIGS sovereign debt crisis will affect the United States and other nations outside of Europe.

European Contagion

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The terminology is beginning to change in Europe. The fact that Spain's finance minister felt it necessary to say this speaks volumes about how the markets view Europe.

“Spain’s situation is not like that of Greece, not in terms of public debt nor in terms of economic strength,” Ms. Salgado said in an interview with La Cope radio.

Yields on Spanish bonds jumped today as the market demanded higher returns on the debt risk. Why did that happen?