The Durable Goods, advance report shows another decline in manufactured durable goods new orders for February. New orders dropped by -2.8% and has been down three of the past for months. February shipments also were negative with a -0.9% drop. Core capital goods new orders by themselves declined by -1.8%. Without transportation new orders, which includes aircraft, durable goods new orders would have decreased by -1.0%.
Q4 GDP was revised upward from 0.7% to 1.0%. The primary causes of the upward revision were inventories contracted much less than originally estimated and imports were much less.
The initial Q4 GDP estimate is an ominous 0.7%. Consumer spending was the only dimly lit bright spot,with changes in inventories removing 0.45 percentage points from GDP. The trade deficit didn't help either as exports were less than imports and the end result was a -0.47 percentage point drain on Q4 real GDP. Both government and fixed investment GDP contribution was next to nil.
The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders just jumped off of a cliff in December. New orders plunged -5.1% and even worse, November new orders was revised down to -0.5%. Not to be outdone, December shipments is also horrific with a -2.2% drop. Core capital goods new orders also plunged by -4.3%. Without transportation new orders, which includes aircraft, durable goods new orders would have decreased by -1.2%.
Q3 GDP has been revised to 2.0%. This is a smidgen, a 0.1 percentage point lowering than the last estimate. Most factors which make up GDP did not change much from the primarily estimate. Changes in private inventories was where the revision occurred as they were revised from -0.59 to -0.71 percentage points of GDP. Consumer spending and domestic demand are still muddling along with moderate growth.
The initial Q3 GDP estimate is a not very enticing 1.5%. Consumer spending was still relatively healthy but the contraction in inventories change eradicated 1.44 points of economic growth. Imports and exports somewhat negated each other. Government contributed a small amount of growth to GDP.
Q2 GDP has been revised upward again to 3.9%. Originally Q2 GDP was reported as 2.3% and then increased to 3.7%. The reason for the higher GDP revision is consumer spending was revised upward by over a quarter of a percentage point. Consumer spending was 62% of real GDP. The revision is yet another surprise since GDP is now 70% greater than the original estimate.
Q2 GDP has been significantly revised upward from 2.3% to 3.7%. Investment was dramatically revised upward as was spending by state and local governments. Consumer spending was a healthy 57.2% of real GDP. Also surprising was a lack of upward revisions in imports. Regardless, that is a 1.37 percentage point GDP revision, a 59% change from the advance report.
The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders shot up by 2.0% in July. June showed a whopping 4.1% new orders increase. Core capital goods, showed a 2.2% monthly gain. Without transportation new orders, which includes aircraft, durable goods new orders would have increased by 0.6%. Motor vehicles & parts new orders gained 4.0% for the month.
Recent comments