unemployment

A Decade of High Unemployment

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If this isn't a definition of a Depression, I just don't know what is. Carmen Reinhart, University of Maryland Economist, is projecting a decade of high unemployment:

Ms. Reinhart’s paper drew upon research she conducted with the Harvard economist Kenneth S. Rogoff for their book “This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly,” published last year by Princeton University Press. Her husband, Vincent R. Reinhart, a former director of monetary affairs at the Fed, was the co-author of the paper.

The Reinharts examined 15 severe financial crises since World War II as well as the worldwide economic contractions that followed the 1929 stock market crash, the 1973 oil shock and the 2007 implosion of the subprime mortgage market.

In the decade following the crises, growth rates were significantly lower and unemployment rates were significantly higher. Housing prices took years to recover, and it took about seven years on average for households and companies to reduce their debts and restore their balance sheets. In general, the crises were preceded by decade-long expansions of credit and borrowing, and were followed by lengthy periods of retrenchment that lasted nearly as long.

“Large destabilizing events, such as those analyzed here, evidently produce changes in the performance of key macroeconomic indicators over the longer term, well after the upheaval of the crisis is over,” Ms. Reinhart wrote.

Raiding retirement just to survive

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It appears especially the middle aged, you know those ones who desperately need a job and are denied, are raiding their 401ks. From Fidelity Investments Q2 2010 statistics on 401k, retirement accounts:

the percentage of participants either initiating a loan or a hardship withdrawal increased. Loans initiated over the past 12 months grew to 11% of total active participants from about 9% one year prior. The portion of participants with loans outstanding also increased two full percentage points in the second quarter to 22%. The average initial loan amount as of the end of the second quarter was $8,650 with an average loan duration of three and half years.

Frankly I thought this number would be much higher, for we have horrific stories of people posting online their suicide notes. Maybe it is because those who are going homeless already blew past any retirement savings. Regardless, a sign of the times and this is only people who have retirement savings to tap into.

Anyone Know Where We Can Find 10,600,000 Jobs?

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Think about this. The U.S. needs 10,600,000 jobs just to get back to pre-recession unemployment rates. EPI:

The labor market is now roughly 10.6 million jobs below the level needed to restore the pre-recession unemployment rate (5.0% in December 2007). To get down to the pre-recession unemployment rate within four years, the labor market would have to add roughly 325,000 jobs every month for that entire period.

Even the OECD is reporting the United States needs 10 million jobs.

Creating jobs has to be a top priority for governments,” said OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría, launching the report in Paris. “Cutting unemployment and fiscal deficits at the same time is a daunting challenge but it needs to be tackled head on. Despite signs of recovery in most countries, the risk remains that millions of people may lose touch with the labour market. High joblessness as the new normal can not be accepted and has to be tackled by a comprehensive policy strategy.

Even worse, the OECD estimates it's member countries need 80 million jobs!

Chart-worshipers, part-swappers, and inequality

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The whispers on Wall Street lately have been the feared "double-dip".
There is a much louder chorus of people proclaiming that we are only looking at a "slow-down". Of course they were the same people who were telling us as recently as April that we were in a "V-shaped" recovery.

Generally speaking, Liz Ann Sonders agrees.
"I'm amazed people still say it's not a 'V'-shaped recovery, which to means they're simply not looking at the charts," says Charles Schwab's chief investment strategist...

Ah, yes. The charts. I have several issues with people who say things like this.

We Don't Have Jobs, Fed Will Raise Rates Anyway

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We can’t wait until unemployment is where we’d like it to be” or inflation gets “out of control” to tighten credit

The above is a quote from Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke.

Gets worse, Bernanke believes the economy will not dip into another recession, yet of course, unemployment will remain at high levels.

While the Fed will raise interest rates from a record low before the economy returns to “full employment,” Bernanke said officials don’t know when that process will start. The banking system isn’t fully healthy and lenders are “cautious” in providing credit, he said.

“The unemployment rate is still going to be high for a while, and that means that a lot of people are going to be under financial stress,” Bernanke said at the event, part of a dinner hosted by the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.

Bernanke’s stance is consistent with that of several Fed colleagues. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said June 3 that the central bank may need to raise rates even with “unacceptable levels of unemployment,” while Eric Rosengren of the Boston Fed said last month it wouldn’t be “appropriate” to have rates close to zero with the economy at full employment.

Unemployment 9.7% for May 2010

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The May 2010 monthly unemployment figures are out. The rate decreased to 9.7% and the number of jobs gained is 431,000. 411,000 of those jobs were temporary Census workers. Only 41,000 private sector jobs were added. The official unemployment rate dropped due to the temporary Census hiring and people plain fell off the count.

Total nonfarm payroll employment grew by 431,000 in May, reflecting the hiring of 411,000 temporary employees to work on Census 2010. Private-sector employment changed little (+41,000). The unemployment rate edged down to 9.7 percent

 

 

Below is the nonfarm payroll, seasonally adjusted:

 

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