Recent comments

  • I don't know the natural death and birth rates but I *thought* those natural rates were in the adjustments already, i.e. population controls from the Census.

    From the increase in employed it is possible that those not in the labor force found jobs, but month to month correlations are spurious at best, need at least a quarter of data to imply anything, a year is really the valid marker.

    Reply to: BLS Household Survey Report Holds Promising Unemployment Numbers   3 years 7 months ago
    EPer:
  • ...we shouldn't be surprised if after the next 10 years the unemployment rate will be -4.9%

    Just curious...If there are 374,000 less people that are "not in the labor force", did they either find work or die?

    I'm assuming they didn't retire or go on disability, right?

    Reply to: BLS Household Survey Report Holds Promising Unemployment Numbers   3 years 7 months ago
    EPer:
  • found out something i hadnt realized with this report...they extrapolate each metric from the survey separately, and since we're talking people, they obviously round to whole numbers...but what we saw this week was that the seasonally adjusted count of those who were employed rose by 530,000 and the number of unemployed rose by 24,000, while the labor force increased by 555,000, meaning there significant fractional people who were either employed or unemployed, enough to add up to another whole person in the labor force..

    Reply to: BLS Household Survey Report Holds Promising Unemployment Numbers   3 years 7 months ago
    EPer:
  • Trump is clearly going to give unlimited foreign guest worker Visas, as will all of them probably but still that's quite a betrayal from his earlier position.

    Bernie does have a proven track record helping U.S. workers with regard to foreign guest worker Visas.

    Reply to: ISM Survey Shows Manufacturing in Contraction for 5th Month in a Row   3 years 7 months ago
    EPer:
  • I just watched the GOP debate, and nobody offered anything new. It was the same-ole same-ole.

    The GOP's solution for Detroit and Flint Michigan is the same as it is for the entire country — the way to fix the infrastructure and schools and bring back jobs is to lower the tax base. They want us to believe that less tax revenues will fix everything.

    The fact is, offshoring jobs to low-wage countries and the increase in corporate tax avoidance has decreased tax revenues, leaving government less money to fix infrastructure, fix schools and replace lead pipes.

    The "effective" corporate tax rate (what they actually pay) is lower now than it has been for decades — nominally and as a percent of profits and GDP. Wages have also been stagnant for decades, and in many cases, have declined — while the cost of living has increased.

    The GOP wants us to believe that by lowering the tax base, it will bring jobs back from China, induce employers to pay higher wages, and provide enough tax revenues to fix infrastructure, fix schools and replace lead pipes.

    The GOP want us to believe that if corporations could pay no taxes at all, all their savings would NOT go into the pockets of executives and shareholders, but into the pockets of working people — and into the city, state, county and federal coffers to fix infrastructure, fix schools and replace lead pipes.

    Programs such as Social Security are under-funded, because wages have not kept up with productivity, CEO pay and after-tax profits. But rather than paying higher wages or lifting the "cap" for Social Security taxes, the GOP wants to cut Social Security benefits and raise the age for retirement, claiming we're living longer now (when it's mainly the very rich who are living longer).

    Donald Trump says he regularly travels all over the world, and he sees other airports, trains and roads in other countries, and says he's ashamed of our crumbling infrastructure — comparing America to a third world country.

    But the GOP wants us to believe that the less we tax the very rich, the more lead pipes we can fix.

    Vote for Bernie Sanders to bring jobs back to America and to fix our infrastructure.

    Reply to: ISM Survey Shows Manufacturing in Contraction for 5th Month in a Row   3 years 7 months ago
    EPer:
  • .today's construction spending report showed the December spending estimate was revised 0.6% higher, from $1,116.6 billion to $1,123.5 billion, while November's construction spending was revised from $1,116.0 billion to $1,116.9 billion, which together would suggest an upward revision to 4th quarter GDP of 0.19 percentage points..

    Reply to: Q4 GDP Revised Slightly Upwards to 1.0%   3 years 7 months ago
    EPer:
  • A cartel also rises.

    Reply to: A Russian-OPEC deal, more inventory records, and why our oil output has held up   3 years 7 months ago
    EPer:
  • with the release of the CPI, we should be able to estimate the economic impact of last week's January retail sales report...for the most accurate estimate, and the way the BEA will be figuring 1st quarter GDP at the end of April, we would have to take each type of retail sales and adjust it with the appropriate change in price to determine real sales; for instance, January's clothing store sales, which rose by 0.2% in dollars, should be adjusted with the price index for apparel, which was up by 0.6%, to show us that real retail sales of clothing were actually down 0.4% in January...then, to get a GDP relevant quarterly change, we'd have to compare those January real clothing sales with real clothing consumption for the months of October, November and December, and then repeat that process for each other type of retailer, obviously quite a tedious task to undertake manually...the short cut we usually use for a ballpark estimate is to apply the composite price index of all commodities less food and energy commodities, which was up 0.2%, to retail sales less grocery, gas station, and restaurant sales, which accounts for nearly 70% of the aggregate sales....those sales were up almost 0.4% in January, and since their price index was up 0.2%, real retail sales excluding food and energy sales were up approximately 0.2%...then, for the rest of the total, we find sales at grocery stores were up 0.8%, while prices for food at home were down 0.2%, suggesting a real increase of 1.0% in the volume of food purchased in January....next, sales at bars and restaurants were down 0.5% in dollars, and in addition those dollars bought 0.3% less, so real sales of food away from home were actually down about 0.8%...and while gas station sales were down 3.3%, gasoline prices were down 4.8%, suggesting a solid real increase in gasoline sold, with the caveat that gas stations sell more than gasoline, and we don't have the details on that...weighing the food and energy components at one third of total retail sales suggests that net real retail sales were up on the order of 0.2% in January, following a real decrease of 0.3% in December, an increase of 1.0% in November, and a decrease of 0.1% in October (data which we get from Table 7 of the income and outlays report (pdf))...that means we can estimate that January's real consumption of goods was 0.2% higher than that of December, 0.1% lower than that of November, and 0.9% higher than that of October, suggesting a real increase of more than 0.3% in January from the average monthly real sales of the 4th quarter..

    Reply to: CPI Index Shows Overall Inflation Had No Change for January 2016   3 years 8 months ago
    EPer:
  • False charge. Gordon Gekko's speech was against corporate officers and their fat pensions and payrolls. Gordon also noted the fiscal deficit of the U.S. being at "nightmare" proportions, and that was nearly 30 years ago.

    Reply to: Bernie Sanders is no friend of Gordon Gekko   3 years 8 months ago
  • last week i reviewed factory inventories as compared to BEA estimates and judged that their level would have little impact of revisions to 4th quarter GDP...but in computing 4th quarter GDP, the BEA assumed an increase inventories in merchant wholesale and retail industries other than motor vehicles (pdf) for December at a $26.5 billion annual rate, which would work out to about $2.2 billion monthly...today's business inventory report shows retail inventories ex-autos up 0.2%, or a bit over $0.8 billion, whereas the wholesale inventories report showed total inventories down almost $0.8 billion despite a $168 million increase in automotive products inventories...so it appears that the BEA overestimated December and end of quarter wholesale and retail inventories by nearly $2.4 billion, which would work out to a decrease at $9.5 billion annual rate from previously published figures, which would in turn would result in a subtraction of roughly 0.58 percentage points from 4th quarter GDP...

    Reply to: Q4 2015 GDP Comes in at a Paltry 0.7%   3 years 8 months ago
    EPer:
  • what has been stated by the author is very very obvious....great piece,very skillfull..this time and age ,its much better all around than what was achieved in Rome by those brutus,s...as the word implies:lassia faire...has made it much more acceptable and paletable for the numbers of human agent participating ....in THIS CHAPTER... to the contrary:King Lydia would be quite proud

    Reply to: The West Is Reduced To Looting Itself   3 years 8 months ago
    EPer:
  • the November construction spending estimate was revised down from $1,122.5 billion to $1,116.0 billion annually

    Reply to: Q4 2015 GDP Comes in at a Paltry 0.7%   3 years 8 months ago
    EPer:
  • Bloomberg is precisely the wrong candidate for the times. The right won't like his liberal social views and the left and even some right wing populists won't like his conservative economics.

    Reply to: Michael Bloomberg Possible Run for President Would Gut Social Security   3 years 8 months ago
    EPer:
  • Well, your guy I think did a very dumb thing in not showing up for the FAUX debate and going after Megyn Kelly. I mean really, he couldn't take someone asking him about all of his sexist and misogynistic behavior over the years?

    Anyway, I'd rather have Trump than Cruz so it is not like I am thrilled here but he done it to himself me thinks.

    Reply to: A Strategic Case for Donald Trump   3 years 8 months ago
    EPer:
  • the technical notes for this release said that BEA assumed an increase in nonresidential construction and an increase in residential construction in December...that report was released today and showed nonresidential spending fell 2.1%...

    Reply to: Q4 2015 GDP Comes in at a Paltry 0.7%   3 years 8 months ago
    EPer:
  • I like to say Oboma while you and your family are on a 8 year vacation I've been busting my ass for the country I once knew was AMERICA. I did not get a COLA for 4 years and lost a lot towards my retirement due to that. Also let me mention the sequestration. That was a cluster &^$%^*. So I retired and sure as shit you screwed me again. I'm sure I'm not the only one. We should get a prize for being screwed so much. I am a true RED BLOODED AMERICAN and AMERICA has failed me. I'm am proud of the people who work and have fought for this country, but I'm not proud of this country anymore. SAD BUT TRUE

    Reply to: Federal Workers get a Raise, Retirees get Screwed   3 years 8 months ago
    EPer:
  • "Social Security is the greatest transfer of wealth in the history of the world."

    Yes it is. When Reagan initiated his tax cuts from the top down he also increased Social Security levies from the bottom up. The net result was an enormous transfer of wealth up the income ladder. Social Security was given Federal Debt obligations to hold until the baby boom generation retired. That time is now and the Republicans desperately want to renege on the deal. They are as everyone knows deadbeats who blame everyone else for the economic misery they cause. As for younger Americans the only way they will not receive their Social Security is if they allow Republicans to take it from them.

    Reply to: Michael Bloomberg Possible Run for President Would Gut Social Security   3 years 8 months ago
    EPer:
  • http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/26/bloomberg-for-president-it-could-happen-c...

    Reply to: Michael Bloomberg Possible Run for President Would Gut Social Security   3 years 8 months ago
    EPer:
  • This is crazy. We need the Fair Tax so that 100% of what we earn is what we take home.

    Reply to: Should Billionaires be Taxed for Social Security?   3 years 8 months ago
    EPer:
  • He is adamantly denying running.

    Reply to: Michael Bloomberg Possible Run for President Would Gut Social Security   3 years 8 months ago
    EPer:

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