oh, everyone who has an opinion has a projection...probably the most cited projection comes from the IEA, who says they expect a global balancing of supply and demand the second half of this year, largely due to a big drop in US production...i dont see any evidence of that yet; US oil output has fallen 13 out of the last 14 weeks, but the average weekly drop has been between 15 and 20 thousand barrels per day...it will take more than a few months at that pace to balance the global oversupply, which is typically put at 2 to 2 and a half million barrels per day, especialy with Iran just now getting their production back online...
What is the projection for oil to stay low, the timeline?
we still have a record glut and the talks at Doha this weekend failed to produce an agreement to cap oil output at current levels, with the Saudis even threatening to pump another million barrels a day, so we may yet test February's lows
most consider "product supplied" as the equivalent of consumption. EIA publishes that weekly, too:
We can derive the total weekly consumption (really daily !) numbers with the standard manufacturing production/inventory formula.
Beginning Inventory 4/8 + Production - Ending Inventory 4/1 = Daily. The EIA overview.pdf contains Total Stocks 4/1 1363.9 + Total Production , a complicated number, of 19,987 and an ending inventory of 1357.0. 1364+19,987 = 19984 thousands BPD Consumed. The street word of 20 million barrels per day is about right. It is the speculative lure of the change in stocks that drive price, not the steady consumption of 20M BPD.
One year ago the same calculation is 1226 -1357 + 18995 = 18864 = thousands BPD Daily Consumption. What a difference in consumption ! Next look at the differences in prices. With significantly lower prices consumption increases in the U.S by 5.5 %EPer: brleed
So the upside for the price of crude seems relatively capped at least in the short to mid term, but is there real downside? As long as this dollar weakness persists crude will probably chop in a range and neither side will get paid out well.EPer: Macro Ops
i wasnt mixing surveys; i was subtracting JOLTS separations from JOLTS hires to get the JOLTS equivalent of the payroll jobs increase...you're right, annually they tend to match. but they didnt in February...
JOLTS is a separate survey so we cannot add and subtract the employment report from their figures. They do match up on the annual last I checked.
subtracting the 5,050,000 total separations from the total hires of 5,422,000 would imply an increase of 372,000 jobs in February, somewhat more than the revised payroll job increase of 245,000 for February reported by the March establishment survey a week ago, suggesting that one of these surveys might even be off by more than the expected +/-115,000 margin of error..
my estimate was based on the average of January and Februay trade in goods vis a vis Q4...if March repeats February, it would be about an 80 basis point hit to GDP
Sessions sticks to his guns on certain positions in spite of corporate lobbyists and so on pressuring him to change. Even if someone isn't a Republican or conservative, gotta admire that.
Did you duplicate February for March, for odds are this won't repeat.
using the chained dollars figures provided by exhibit 10 in the pdf for this report, i computed that our QoQ decrease in exports over the 2 months we have data for would subtract about 0.40 percentage points from 1st quarter GDP.....in a similar manner, i found that the increase in imports over those two months would subtract another 0.25 percentage points from 1st quarter GDP....
Yeah, but Trump is a delusional egotistical person of low intelligence who might start a nuclear war.
I don't care how "anti-establishment" he is, he is potentially dangerous and would be a complete disaster as president.
How anyone can trust his ability to "govern" is beyond me...EPer: Luke (not verified)
When the House returns from a two-week recess on April 12, a small group of members are gearing up to stop GOP leadership in both chambers, if they have their way, from holding a legislative session after the November election.
Conservative members say they are trying to stop Congress from doing anything after the November election because Congress does some of its most slapdash lawmaking once the public has voted.
The group of lawmakers, anchored by the House Freedom Caucus, doesn’t want to take any chances that the Senate confirms a Supreme Court nominee or that Congress rams through the expansive Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal or a big budget agreement that raises spending.
"If you look at these lame ducks, you know, the American public gets screwed,"Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.), the Freedom Caucus member leading the charge against the postelection session, told The Huffington Post. "Increased spending, all these favors that we got to do for people — it’s got to stop."
Former Clinton era US Labor Secretary Robert Reich said he had always supported free trade, but that the Trans-Pacific Partnership was "atrocious".
"At this point, it seems the most likely timing would be between the US general election and the inauguration of the incoming Congress, known as the 'lame-duck' session," said Boston University professor of international relations and political science William Grimes. Experts say that while the deal signed on Feb 4 cannot be altered by Congress before it is put to a vote, certain side agreements can be negotiated to make the agreement "palatable to the majority of each House before submitting the implementation legislation for a vote". Professor Grimes added that these are likely to be "face-saving measures and side deals that would benefit the constituencies of certain key legislators, giving them more reason to move through the agreement".
The soonest the TPP's ratification vote may happen is during the “Lame Duck” period after November's election.
Free trade supporters like the New Democrat PAC has contributors like Silicon Valley billionaire Sean Parker, Google and venture capitalists ... The issue remains whether the union’s opposition will prove powerful enough to prevent this so-called “establishment” Democrat (Rep. Ami Bera D-CA)
from winning reelection.
Vietnam’s textiles and apparel industry will enjoy expanded access to the US and Japan markets through reduced tariff duties as a result of TPP once it has been enacted, accelerating foreign direct investment into the country.
Several “TRIPS plus” (trademark terms of protection) measures were adopted benmeftong BIG PHARMA
Bernie Sanders was ALWAYS against the TPP trade deal that New York lawmakers are coming out against: Democratic Reps. Sean Maloney and Eliot Engel joined a bipartisan group of House lawmakers from New York Wednesday to denounce an Obama administration trade deal that they say would hurt the state’s economy and cost jobs. With the U.S. Capitol as a backdrop, the lawmakers said the Trans-Pacific Partnership would make it harder for the United States to compete with countries that pay their workers lower wages, manipulate their currencies to make their products cheaper, and do less to protect the environment and workers’ rights. (* Can New Yorkers trust Hillary Clinton to not "evolve" again and change her mind once again on this issue?)
Ohio lost 112,500 jobs due to trade with TPP countries (But yet...but yet...Ohio Democrats voted for Hillary Clinton instead of Bernie Sanders. Go figure.)
Fast track probably is but if multinational corporations want something, they don't give a damn about the constitution, the idea of representative government or whatever else is in their way.
Treaty Clause in U.S. Constitution
NAFTA and Obama’s Proposed ‘Trade’ Deals Are UnConstitutional
Sometimes one chamber passes something acceptable while the other passes another version which is acceptable to most constituents....then they send chosen House and Senate members to "rectify" the two versions and instead all of the crap that corporate lobbyists wrote and was removed earlier is put back in and nothing can be done by that time because the bill was "already passed". Conferees. So even when one things they have gotten somewhere in both houses, odds are corporations will have their bill the way they wrote it passed into law anyway.
March 26, 2016: Will TPP still be part of Obama's legacy?
Trade supporters and some lawmakers are eyeing a tiny window for the deal to be put to Congress. "At this point, it seems the most likely timing would be between the US general election and the inauguration of the incoming Congress, known as the 'lame-duck' session," said Boston University professor of international relations and political science William Grimes.