Zero Hedge

Brand New Kohl's CEO Fired After "Highly Unusual" Company Transactions With His Romantic Partner

Brand New Kohl's CEO Fired After "Highly Unusual" Company Transactions With His Romantic Partner

Now former Kohl's CEO Ashley Buchanan was abruptly fired after an internal investigation revealed he steered the company into a multimillion-dollar deal involving a vendor tied to a former romantic partner, according to the Wall Street Journal, who first broke the story.

Buchanan was hired in November 2024 and became CEO effective January 15, 2025. 

Michael J. Bender, Kohl’s Board Chair, said at the time: “We know he will be a great leader for Kohl's and will bring a new perspective in our next chapter.” That chapter barely lasted 4 months. 

Buchanan

He "had instructed the retailer to enter into a 'highly unusual' business deal involving a woman with whom he has had a romantic relationship," the Journal wrote.

The company's board found Buchanan failed to disclose the relationship and violated the company's code of conduct, according to a regulatory filing.

The vendor, unnamed in filings, was part of a consulting team awarded a lucrative contract. Sources identified her as Chandra Holt, a former Walmart and Bed Bath & Beyond executive whom Buchanan met years earlier while both worked at Walmart. Holt now runs Incredibrew, a vitamin-infused coffee startup.

Holt

The two have a history:

The two retail veterans have known each other for years. Buchanan was the Sam’s Club chief merchandising officer and Holt held several positions at the Walmart chain, including general merchandise manager of grocery and the chief operating officer of its website.

They both further rose through the ranks at Walmart before leaving around the same time for other positions at Texas-based retailers. Buchanan left in early 2020 to become CEO of Michaels. Holt left in 2021 to become CEO of Conn’s HomePlus and later Bed Bath and Beyond.

The Journal wrote that Buchanan, who became Kohl’s CEO in November 2024 after leading Michaels, will forfeit equity awards and repay a prorated portion of a $2.5 million signing bonus.

Neither he nor Holt responded to requests for comment. Kohl’s appointed Chairman Michael Bender as interim CEO—the chain’s fourth chief in three years—as it grapples with a 4% sales drop and a likely quarterly loss.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/01/2025 - 12:45

"Strong Demand" For Lilly's Weight-Loss Drug Overshadowed By Guidance Cut, Shares Fall

"Strong Demand" For Lilly's Weight-Loss Drug Overshadowed By Guidance Cut, Shares Fall

Update (1340ET):

Earlier, Eli Lilly shares dropped more than 10.5%, surpassing the decline seen on November 23, 2016, and marking the stock's steepest drop since October 9, 2008.

 

*   *   * 

Eli Lilly & Co. shares fell in premarket trading in New York after the company slashed its full-year profit outlook, citing increased research and development expenses, despite posting first-quarter revenue and earnings that beat analysts' expectations, driven by strong demand for its anti-obesity drug, Mounjaro.

Goldman analysts, including Asad Haider, provided clients with a first take on Lilly's first-quarter earnings, indicating that 1Q25 results "slightly exceeded expectations." 

LLY's 1Q25 earnings slightly exceeded expectations, where, encouragingly, the tirzepatide franchise (Zepbound + Mounjaro) came in at $6.15bn ahead of GS/Visible Alpha Consensus Data ($6bn), reflecting continued strong demand, partially offset by lower realized prices. We note that recent IQVIA data shows Zepbound momentum continuing into April. Performance was a bit uneven amongst other portfolio items, with Jardiance (which included a one time benefit of $370mn) and Ebglyss outperforming, while Jaypirca, Omvoh and Emgality fell short of expectations.

Exhibits 1 and 2 provide more color on earnings results:

Actual vs. GS/Consensus- Income Statement and Margins

Actual vs. GS/Consensus- Income Statement and Margins

Overshadowing the first-quarter print was Lilly's move to slash its full-year earnings guidance due to charges related to a recent cancer treatment deal. 

Lilly noted in an earnings release that the existing tariff and trade environment was factored into updated guidance. However, it said the new guidance does not reflect any policy shifts, including pharmaceutical sector tariffs, that could impact business.

More color on the updated guidance via Goldman's Haider: 

The 2025 EPS guidance cut (from $22.50- $24.00 to $20.78- $22.28) was entirely driven by the 1Q25 IPR&D charge of $1.57bn which translates to $1.72 on EPS

Haider maintained a "Buy" rating on Lilly with a 12-month price target of $888. 

Shares fell 6% in premarket trading as the guidance cut took center stage, overshadowing an otherwise solid first quarter. Despite the decline, the stock remains just below Goldman's 12-month price target and not far off from record highs. 

Adding to the pressure, CVS Health announced a deal to expand access to rival Novo Nordisk's anti-obesity drug, which may have further weighed on Lilly's stock sentiment ahead of the cash market. 

Earlier, Eli Lilly CEO Dave Ricks provided CNBC with an update about tariffs: "I think that actually the threat of tariffs is already bringing back critical supply chains into important industries, chips and pharma," adding, "So do we need to enact [tariffs?] I'm not so sure."

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/01/2025 - 12:05

We Have Sharply Binary Geopolitical Outcomes Ahead

We Have Sharply Binary Geopolitical Outcomes Ahead

By Michael Every of Rabobank

This is no time for traditional economic and market methods of poring over old data. Q1 US GDP, -0.3% q-o-q annualized, tells us nothing about what will happen given its all-over-the-place components driven by preparations for a trade war now underway. Nowcasts for Q2 GDP are already showing it back to around 2.4%, but that’s again with two months of the quarter to go and US retail inventories sitting at around 5-7 weeks, after which nobody knows what will happen as the upcoming Port of LA cargo totals are set to drop by around a third year on year.

The only way to make any kind of forecast is to try to project what will happen in the bigger scheme of things. Or, to laugh at President Trump posting, ‘This isn’t my stock market’, because it’s going down, three months after claiming, ‘This is my stock market’, because it was going up, and presume there is no pattern to anything that’s going on.  Rather than indulge in the latter, which is easy, let’s try the former, which is hard.

In the trade war, the US Senate narrowly rejected an attempt to overturn Trump’s tariffs: we are stuck with them until he decides we aren’t. On which, Trump said he expects a great relationship with PM Carney, which may not bode well for Canada, as Alberta’s Premier laid down the law to the PM and flirted with the idea of independence. 

Moreover, the USTR says several trade deals are “close”, again: again, it’s Japan, South Korea, and India being name-dropped. If/when a first deal is signed, markets will have a clearer idea of what lies ahead: yet Trump just said he’s in no rush, and as we’ve laid out, what lies ahead likely involves a new bloc vs China that would resolve many uncertainties while creating vast new ones.

Anyone thinking better US-China trade ties are on the cards too, which apparently includes the US President in his latest comments, isn’t paying much attention (including to the headline writers not noting that he said this deal would be “on our terms” and “fair”). Rather, at the very least, escalation to deescalate is underway. 

Congress just reintroduced a bipartisan SHIPS bill to increase US shipbuilding, targeting 250 commercial vessels over the next decade, which includes the dropped USTR port fee for non-Chinese firms ordering China-built ships; subsidies for US shipbuilders; preferential treatment for US cargo; and requiring a rising % of US imports from China be transported on US-built ships. All this will have a disruptive effect on global trade we’ve already spelled out; yet the emergence of such legislation was predictable to those who read maritime history rather than just Bloomberg.

Moreover, China, whose PMI data yesterday showed trade war impact, was also reported to be months away from running out of copper: it’s not just the West that is reliant on key imports: and the US knows what they are and where they get them from.

As such, on the geopolitical front --which is joined at the hip to trade-- things are also moving. 

The US and Ukraine signed the 50/50 minerals investment deal. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated: “This agreement signals clearly to Russia that the Trump Administration is committed to a peace process centred on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term.” Kyiv hopes the US may also increase defence aid, which would be useful given Europe and the UK just admitted they can’t find enough troops for the peacekeeping contribution they’ll have to make.

Many decrying Trump trying a statecraft Noxin (reverse Nixon) will cheer a US hard line vs Russia. However, the alternative means economic statecraft against Moscow: Senator Graham is pushing legislation to impose 500% secondary tariffs on anyone who buys Russian energy, which would have a destabilising impact on energy markets. Would those decriers call for actual war but not economic warfare, “because markets”? Would Russia buckle and strike peace and Noxin deals?

The troika of Charlie Kirk, Tucker Carlson, and Donald Trump, Jr. make clear they don’t want war with Iran even if the terms of a deal --no more uranium enrichment-- seem unreachable, and Israel remains implacable in its opposition to a can-kicking exercise that sees it carry the realpolitik can if Iran then builds a nuke. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, trying to please the US, said that it will keep pumping oil even as prices decline. 

On two related fronts we have either a sustained bear market in oil or a rapid geopolitical move higher. Interestingly, and relatedly, the US Koch brothers just exited energy trading in what is being described as a “retreat from speculation.” NB that’s exactly what economic statecraft wants to see, as commodities, not “because markets”, are going to be a key focus of it ahead.

Moreover, things are moving in the financial system too, and not just in terms of bond yields grinding lower in DM but moving higher in EM like Argentina and Brazil. Yesterday, the US Treasury released a report on dollar stablecoin usage with huge implications for the structure of markets, and which benefits the US over others. They talk of higher deposit rates, a huge inflow into US T-bills, and much more – and most of it benefitting the US at the expense of others. Does that make it more or less likely to happen ahead? I’m asking for a friend who usually focuses on GDP.

In short, we have sharply binary geopolitical outcomes ahead and either: sustained trade chaos, with one set of implications for the world economy; or a US retreat, with another set of implications (and second, third, nth order effects the people who want to see it happen don’t grasp at all); or a clear global bifurcation between the US and China across still-variable geography and asset classes. 

Please put that all into your GDP model and tell me what it says. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/01/2025 - 11:45

Medicaid, SALT, & SNAP Debates Threaten Trump Agenda As Reconciliation Deadline Looms

Medicaid, SALT, & SNAP Debates Threaten Trump Agenda As Reconciliation Deadline Looms

As House Republicans race to pass President Trump’s sweeping domestic policy package, serious internal divisions remain unresolved, casting doubt over whether the party can meet its own ambitious deadlines.

Speaker Mike Johnson has set a tight three-week window to pass a massive reconciliation bill intended to enact the core of Trump’s economic agenda. Yet as of May 1, lawmakers remain deadlocked on several of the package’s most contentious provisions, from tax policy to cuts in federal safety-net programs.

We’re working through each of the final issues,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told Punchbowl News, acknowledging that the package is “coming down the wire” even as four committees have already advanced their legislative proposals. Behind the scenes, however, critical components of the legislation remain in flux.

Major Tax Questions Still Unanswered

Nowhere is the uncertainty more apparent than in the House Ways and Means Committee, where the $4.5 trillion tax section of the package remains in limbo. A formal markup has not been scheduled, though May 8 is being discussed as a target date, Punchbowl reports.

One of the most intractable issues is the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap. Several Republican lawmakers from high-tax states, especially New York, are pressing for the $10,000 cap to be lifted or substantially increased. Speaker Johnson met Wednesday with members of the SALT Caucus to gather “final feedback” before a new cap is finalized.

But lawmakers involved in the talks described them as far from conclusive. “We’re still far away from being done,” said Representative Nick LaLota, Republican of New York. Proposals to raise the cap to $25,000 have failed to unify the group, and disagreements persist over how to address the so-called marriage penalty, which currently imposes the same cap on joint filers as on single taxpayers.

For GOP reps like LaLota and Mike Lawler, also of New York, resolving the SALT issue is politically non-negotiable.

Medicaid Cuts Draw Moderate Resistance

Similar discord surrounds proposed Medicaid changes. Republicans on the House Energy and Commerce Committee continue to deliberate over how to achieve $880 billion in savings, a task that has sparked pushback from centrist members concerned about the scale of potential cuts.

Representative Juan Ciscomani of Arizona said talks were “making progress” following a meeting with Committee Chair Brett Guthrie. Still, disagreements remain, particularly over proposals to impose per capita caps on Medicaid spending - a sticking point for members like Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska, who supports no more than $500 billion in total reductions.

“For them to do any more,” Mr. Bacon said, “they’re going to have to prove it doesn’t hurt people’s health care or hospitals.

Energy and Commerce is scheduled to hold a markup on May 7, with Republicans on the panel meeting again Thursday morning to try to bridge remaining divides.

Food Stamp Reform in Flux

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) has also emerged as a flashpoint. The House Agriculture Committee is under pressure to find $230 billion in savings but has yet to finalize a plan.

Chair Glenn Thompson of Pennsylvania is opposed to cutting benefits and instead favors a cost-sharing model that would shift more of the financial burden to states. However, that idea has drawn criticism from both the White House and within the Republican conference.

Mr. Bacon has suggested a simpler solution: scale back the required savings. “They need to lower the $230 [billion] to $100 [billion],” he said.

Mr. Thompson has signaled that he does not want to see changes to the Thrifty Food Plan, a government benchmark for SNAP benefit levels. But the path forward remains unclear as Republicans weigh political risks and the Trump administration awaits feedback on key proposals.

Clock's ticking guys...

Trump administration officials have indicated they want Congress to complete the reconciliation process by July 4. Yet with major pieces of the package still unresolved, that deadline appears increasingly difficult to meet.

The current impasse reflects a broader challenge facing House Republicans: how to reconcile ideological differences within their own ranks while moving forward on a sprawling policy package. Each committee’s internal debate has created ripple effects, complicating the broader legislative effort.

The coming weeks will test whether the Republican leadership can align its members around the former president’s agenda - or whether the reconciliation effort will stall under the weight of unresolved conflicts.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/01/2025 - 11:25

The Baby Hoax: Reporters Repeat False Narrative Over Child Deportations

The Baby Hoax: Reporters Repeat False Narrative Over Child Deportations

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

For years, the mainstream media has been criticized for open political bias, including repeating false narratives and claims. 

There is little evidence that that will change despite falling revenues and audiences. 

That was evident this week as leading journalists continued to raise a dubious claim about the Trump Administration deporting children, including cancer patients.

The media has been promulgating a false claim that children as young as four are being deported.

The Administration immediately stated that the decision rested with the mothers on whether they would take the children or leave them in the United States with family.

Many of the same figures accused of promulgating false stories quickly picked up the spin from the Washington Post.

On NBC’s Meet the Press, Kristen Welker pursued the narrative with Secretary of State Marco Rubio:

KRISTEN WELKER: Let’s talk now about some new reporting that came in overnight. I want just to go through it with you and for our audience. Three U.S. citizen children have been deported with their mothers. Now this is according to The Washington Post. The family’s lawyer says one of them is a 4-year-old with Stage 4 cancer, deported without medication or ability to contact doctors. The family’s lawyers are also saying their clients were denied communication with family and legal representatives before being deported, and it’s raising concerns about the issue of due process. That it’s being violated. So let me ask you, is everyone on U.S. soil, citizens and non-citizens, entitled to due process?

MARCO RUBIO: Yes, of course. But let me tell you, it looks- in immigration standing, the laws are very specific. If you are in the country unlawfully, you have no right to be here and you must be removed. That’s what the law says. Somehow over the last 20 years, we’ve completely lost this notion that somehow- or completely adopted this idea that yes, we have immigration laws but once you come into our country illegally it triggers all kinds of rights that can keep you here indefinitely. That’s why we were being flooded at the border, and we’ve ended that. And that’s why you don’t- you see a historically low number of people not just trying to cross our border, trying to cross the border into Panama, all the way down in the Darien Gap. I mean- i it’s been a huge help for those countries as well. On the headline- that’s a misleading headline. Okay? Three U.S. Citizens, ages 4, 7 and 2 were not deported. Their mothers who were illegally in this country were deported. The children went with their mothers. Those children are U.S. citizens- they can come back into the United States- there’s- their father or someone here who wants to assume them. But ultimately who was deported was the mother- their mothers who were here illegally. The children just went with their mothers. But it wasn’t like- you guys make it sound like ICA agents kicked down the door and grabbed the 2 year-old and threw them on an airplane. That’s misleading. That’s just not true.

That would ordinarily leave a journalist looking at their shoes in embarrassment, but Welker decided to double down and add the claim that children are being denied “due process”:

WELKER: Just to be clear, because I do want to get to the overhaul at the State Department. Is it the U.S. policy to deport children, even U.S. citizens, with their families- and I hear what you’re saying- without due process? Just to be very clear there.

RUBIO: Well- no, no, no. No, no. Again, if someone is in this country unlawfully, illegally, that person gets deported. If that person is with a 2-year-old child or has a 2-year-old child and says “I want to take my child with you- with me,” well then you have two choices. You can say yes, of course, you can take your child whether they’re a citizen or not because it’s your child or you can say yes, you can go, but your child must stay behind. And then your headlines would read, “U.S. holding hostage 2-year old, 4-year-old, 7-year-old, while mother deported.”

There is a great deal of litigation working through the courts on the level of due process required for deportations. The public overwhelmingly supports the deportation of unlawful immigrants and elected Trump based on his pledge to carry out such deportations. Unlawful immigrants often spend years in this country despite orders of deportation or removal. The level of review depends on their status. If they have previously entered unlawfully, they are subject to expedited removal.

The critical point, however, is that the children are not being deported. 

If they were born in this country, they are still treated as U.S. citizens (though the Administration is challenging birthright citizenship in the courts).

Having a child in the United States does not make parents immune from removal or afford them special legal status over other deportees.

Over at CBS, Margaret Brennan (who was criticized for her “fact checks” in the presidential debate) also jumped on the narrative in interviewing Border Czar Tom Homan on Face the Nation:

MARGARET BRENNAN: On Friday, there were three American citizen children, born here, who were deported along with their mothers from Louisiana down to Honduras. And according to advocates, one of them is a 4-year-old child with Stage Four cancer. A rare form of metastatic cancer who was sent back to Honduras without getting to talk to a doctor and without medication. I understand this child’s mother entered this country illegally. But isn’t there some basis for compassionate consideration here that should have allowed for more consultation or treatment?

TOM HOMAN: Well, it certainly is discretionary. I’m not aware of this specific case. But no U.S. citizen child was deported. Deported means you gotta be ordered — reported by the immigration judge. We don’t deport U.S. citizens.

BRENNAN: The mother was deported along with the children.

HOMAN: These children- Children aren’t deported. The mother chose to take the children with her. When you enter the country illegally and you know you are here illegally and you choose to have a U.S. citizen child, that’s on you. That’s not on this administration. If you choose to put your family in that position, that’s on them. But having a U.S. citizen child, after you enter this country illegally, is not a “get out of jail free” card. It doesn’t make you immune from our laws. If that’s the message we send to the entire world, women are going to keep putting themselves at risk and come to this country. We send a message: you can enter the country illegally, that’s okay, you can have due process at great taxpayer expense, get ordered to move, that’s OK. Don’t leave, but have a U.S. citizen child and you are immune from removal? That’s not the way it works.

BRENNAN: So you don’t think there should be compassionate consideration for a 4-year-old child undergoing treatment for cancer?

HOMAN: I didn’t say that. I said ICE officers do have discretion-

BRENNAN: That was the question.

HOMAN: ICE officers do have discretion. I’m not familiar with the specific case. I don’t know what facts surround this case. I was just made aware of this when you mentioned it this morning. I was not aware of that case.

Brennan correctly noted that a court recently found a lack of due process in a child’s case. However, Holman had a reasonable response in citing the mother’s election in this one case to leave with her child.

BRENNAN: On Friday, a federal judge who was appointed by President Trump said a 2-year-old American citizen child had been sent to Honduras with the mother. But the judge said, quote: “there was no meaningful process.” So again, this is another similar situation and dynamic. Shouldn’t there be special care when the deportation cases involve small American-born children?

HOMAN: First of all, I disagree with the judge. There was due process. That female had due process at great taxpayer expense and was ordered by an immigration judge after those hearings. So she had due process. Again, this is Parenting 101. And you can decide to take that child with you or you can decide to leave the child here with a relative or another spouse. Having a child doesn’t make you immune from our laws of the country. American families get separated every day by law enforcement- thousands of times a day. When a parent gets put in jail, the child can’t go with them. If you are an illegal alien and you come to this country and you decide to have a U.S. citizen child, that’s on you. You put yourself in that position.

BRENNAN: Well, when it came to this particular case, you just pointed out that they could have made arrangements. The father tried, actually, to make arrangements as we understand it through our reporting. But he and the mother who were separated, since she was in detention after showing up for her appointment, was only allowed a very brief phone call. The father tried to petition to get the child handed over to an American citizen relative. So the mother had to make this decision and took the child with her. It just seems like there could be some more time frame here around due process allowed. That’s what the judge is saying, is saying- there should have been more of a process here.

HOMAN: There was due process. The 2-year-old baby- the two year old baby was left with the mother because the mother signed a document requesting her 2-year-old baby go with her. That’s the parent’s decision. I don’t think the judge knows the specifics of this case. The 2-year-old went with the mom. The mom signed a paper saying, “I want my 2-year-old to go with me.” That’s a parent’s decision. It’s not a government decision, it’s a parent’s decision.

BRENNAN: The father wrote a note. Anyhow, we have to leave it there, Director. Thank you for your time today. We’ll be right back.

It is important to note that these are two very different cases that were blended into the coverage.

In the second case, the government insists that there was no prior arrangement for the child to be left with the family and that the mother made this decision.

ICE should endeavor to accommodate such requests and there should always be an inquiry into allegations that these women were prevented from making arrangements for their children to remain in the country. However, there will also be practical limits in addressing those issues in the midst of a removal.

If Homan is correct, the mother was in the system long before the actual removal. The father “sending a note” at the end of that process is worth looking into, but it is hardly surprising that the removal proceeded with the mother’s consent.

The same narrative was playing over at ABC as Martha Raddatz had this exchange with former DoJ spokesperson Sarah Isgur:

MARTHA RADDATZ: Sarah, I want to turn here to some information that has been in The Washington Post about deportations of very young children who are American citizens. A 2-year-old, a 4-year-old, a 7-year-old sent back to Honduras. Is that legal?

SARAH ISGUR: This is something our immigration system deals with nearly every day. U.S. citizen children have to make that decision with their parents of whether they’re going to stay. The parent has the decision. We do not allow illegal alien parents to stay just because they have custody over U.S. citizen children, and at least one of these cases with the 2-year-old, the mother was the one who made the decision to take her daughter with her. The father is the one saying he wanted the daughter to stay here. Often times, it’s going to look more like a custody dispute than an immigration question.

Again, as Isgur correctly points out, this is the election of the parents who are being removed.

Critics have pushed back on these interviews, noting how the media seemed only marginally interested in thousands of children lost in the system under the Biden Administration as millions poured over the border.

The coverage suggested that children were being thrown on planes to be dumped in some foreign land.

The Washington Post, which is cited for the story, has been repeatedly accused of pushing misleading or false narratives. There was a recent riot in the newsroom when owner Jeff Bezos demanded that the newspaper return to more balanced coverage.

The most telling condemnation came from Post columnist Philip Bump, who wrote “what the actual f**k.” Bump has been repeatedly accused of false claims and previously had a meltdown in an interview when confronted about past false claims. After I wrote a column about the litany of such false claims, the Post surprised many of us by stating that it stood by all of Bump’s reporting, including false columns on the Lafayette Park protests, Hunter Biden’s laptop, and other stories. That was long after other media debunked the claims, but the Post stood by the false reporting.

We have previously discussed the sharp change in culture at the Post, which became an outlet that pushed anti-free speech views and embraced advocacy journalism. The result was that many moderates and conservatives stopped reading the newspaper.

In my book on free speech, I discuss at length how the Post and the mainstream media have joined an alliance with the government and corporations in favor of censorship and blacklisting. I once regularly wrote for the Post and personally witnessed the sharp change in editorial priorities as editors delayed or killed columns with conservative or moderate viewpoints.

Last year, that culture was vividly on display when the newspaper offered no objection or even qualification after its reporter, Cleve Wootson Jr., appeared to call upon the White House to censor the interview of Elon Musk with former President Donald Trump. Under the guise of a question, Wootson told White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre “I think that misinformation on Twitter is not just a campaign issue…it’s an America issue.”

The baby hoax shows that little has (or likely will) changed. In the meantime, the public is moving on. New media is rising as mainstream media audiences shrink. Journalists and columnists are increasingly writing for each other as polling shows trust in the media is at an all-time low.

Robert Lewis, a British media executive who joined the Post, reportedly got into a “heated exchange” with a staffer. Lewis explained that, while reporters were protesting measures to expand readership, the very survival of the paper was now at stake:

“We are going to turn this thing around, but let’s not sugarcoat it. It needs turning around,” Lewis said. “We are losing large amounts of money. Your audience has halved in recent years. People are not reading your stuff. Right. I can’t sugarcoat it anymore.”

It simply does not matter. The media continues to vigorously saw on the branch upon which it is sitting.

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro professor of public interest law at George Washington University and the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/01/2025 - 10:25

'Beneficial Switching Away From Imports' - US Manufacturing Surveys Signal No Recession In Q2

'Beneficial Switching Away From Imports' - US Manufacturing Surveys Signal No Recession In Q2

Following a slew of regional Fed surveys (and various other sentiment readings) sending 'soft' data dramatically lower (as 'hard' data continues to strengthen), this morning's Manufacturing PMIs are expected to signal further weakness.

Source: Bloomberg

The final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI did indeed disappoint, sliding from 50.7 flash print to 50.2 - exactly in line with March's final print (but below the 50.5 expected).

ISM's Manufacturing PMI beat expectations, printing 48.7 (down from the 49.0 in March but better than the 47.9 expectations) - lowest since Nov 2024.

So Hard data up, PMI flat, ISM down... take your pick

But none of the three factors point to a recession:

“The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the April reading (48.7 percent) corresponds to a change of +1.8 percent in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,” says ISM's Timothy Fiore.

Under the hood, all the main components beat expectations with New Orders and Employment improving and Prices Paid rising (but less than expected)...

Admittedly, respondents are fearful of the impact of tariffs to come:

  • “Uncertainty over tariffs is providing a big challenge from both Tier-1 suppliers we will have to pay tariffs on directly and Tier-2 suppliers that will try to pass tariffs through to us in the form of price increases and tariff surcharges.” [Chemical Products]

  • “Tariffs impacting operations — specifically, delayed border crossings and duties calculations that are complex and not completely understood. As a result, we are potentially overpaying duties. Unsure of potential drawbacks. Implementation of tariffs and their application is sudden and abrupt. The business is taking countermeasures.” [Transportation Equipment]

  • “Business climate is apprehensive, and with tariff costs implemented, all inbound Chinese shipments are on hold. It is not feasible for our business or customers to sustain the pricing required to provide an acceptable margin.” [Computer & Electronic Products]

  • “The most important topic is tariffs. Risks include margin erosion due to rising operational costs and freight delays disrupting delivery timelines. Supplier relationships are strained by pain-share negotiations, and competitors are gaining share by importing from lower-tariff regions.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]

  • “Tariff whiplash is causing us major issues with customers. The two issues we are seeing: (1) customers are holding back orders to understand what is happening with tariffs on their products or (2) they are forcing us to accept the tariffs, which causes us to ‘no quote’ the job as we cannot take on that type of risk for an order.” [Machinery]

  • “There is a lot of concern about the inflationary impacts from tariffs in our industry. Domestic producers are charging more for everything because they can.” [Fabricated Metal Products]

  • “Tariff trade wars are incredibly volatile, quickly changing, and disrupting a ton of our current work. We are 90 percent sourced out of China, and the cost models keep changing every week. We are flying to visit suppliers in a few weeks to negotiate current terms and pricing, as well as develop more long-term, strategic plans to reduce risk in the region.” [Apparel, Leather & Allied Products]

  • “Demand is slightly lower than plan, but it has been steady amid tariff concerns. Significant time has been spent quantifying the impact of changing tariff rates. Our costs will increase, and we are discussing how to share that impact across suppliers and customers.” [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]

  • “The recently imposed 145-percent tariff rate on Chinese imports is significantly affecting our 2025 profitability. Due to the complexity of our parts and the lack of alternate sources, we are unable to find any alternate suppliers — especially at a reasonable cost — to our current Chinese sources. Incoming orders have slowed due to market volatility and uncertainty.” [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]

"Manufacturing continued to flat-line in April amid worrying downside risks to the outlook and sharply rising costs," said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

"Factory output fell for a second successive month as tariffs were widely blamed on a slump in export orders and curbed spending among customers more broadly amid rising uncertainty. 

But, even they were forced to admit a small silver lining in the report...

"Although the survey saw some producers report evidence of beneficial tariff-related switching of customer demand away from imports, any such sales increase was countered by worries over tariff-related disruptions to supply chains and lost export sales. 

This served to drive business confidence about prospects in the year ahead down sharply to the gloomiest for 10 months. 

And just like all the other surveys, PMI respondents sees Prices rising...

"Concerns have also spiked in terms of input costs, especially for imported materials and components, due to the triple whammy of tariff-related price hikes, supply shortages, and the weaker dollar. 

"Manufacturers are responding to these changing demand, supply and cost conditions by raising their selling prices and trimming headcounts to help protect their margins."

So, take what you will from this - are these data points a reflection of reality or the incessant FUD being peddled by the mainstream media?

If you need a reminder, as we noted earlier, there is a massive gap between what CEOs are saying and what CEOs are doing...

Will CEOs suddenly announce massive waves of layoffs, or, with stocks now having erased all of the post-Liberation Day losses, will CEOs suddenly find a renewed optimism?

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/01/2025 - 10:09

This Was Chosen As 'Photo Of 2024' By TDS Impaired Media...

This Was Chosen As 'Photo Of 2024' By TDS Impaired Media...

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

What was the undeniable best photo of 2024?

The image of President Trump, fist raised in defiance, still alive after being shot with blood streaming down his face, Secret Service members rushing him to safety as he screamed “FIGHT, FIGHT, FIGHT.”

Yeah, that was objectively the photo of the year. Perhaps photo of the decade, perhaps of the century.

However, because the legacy media is so riddled with leftist activists suffering from stage 5 Trump Derangement Syndrome, they decided it wasn’t photo of the year.

Instead, the White House Correspondents’ Association picked a black and white photograph of pudding brain Joe Biden dementia shuffling away from a podium, presumably lost as usual.

Yes, really.

It’s not even a good photograph.

It’s taken from too far away and on a smaller device you have to zoom in to see who the subject is. 

It also has no remarkable context. It’s just Biden doing an everyday activity that he did for years.

The description states:

The WHCA award for presidential news coverage by visual journalists, which recognizes a video or photo journalist for uniquely covering the presidency at the White House or in the field went to Doug Mills of The New York Times for an image taken of former President Joe Biden as he wrestled with historic challenges, including international crises, amid calls for him to end his reelection campaign.

“Wrestled”? “Historic”?

Come on.

The Trump photo wasn’t even given an honorable mention. That went to a photo of Elon Musk jumping in the air with a grin on his face at the second Butler Trump rally.

Again, presumably because they also hate him so much.

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/01/2025 - 09:25

Kremlin Reacts To Minerals Deal Signing: 'Trump Has Broken The Zelensky Regime'

Kremlin Reacts To Minerals Deal Signing: 'Trump Has Broken The Zelensky Regime'

The Kremlin has said that what the newly signed minerals deal between Ukraine and Washington does is effectively force Kiev to pay for all future military aid.

"Trump has broken the Kyiv regime to the point where they will have to pay for U.S. aid with mineral resources," Medvedev, a former Russian president and current deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, stated on Telegram.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Ukrainian Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko sign the deal. US Department of the Treasury/Reuters

"Now they will have to pay for military supplies with the national wealth of a disappearing country," he said of the Ukrainians.

As of yet, the full contents of the newly inked deal, finalized and signed late in the day Wednesday, have not been revealed, but it gives the United States preferential access to new Ukrainian minerals deals and its natural resources like oil and gas, and will fund investment in Ukraine's reconstruction.

But the Zelensky government was able to get something crucial dropped at the last minute. As CNN details, "Compared to earlier drafts, the final agreement is reportedly less lopsided in favor of the US and is not as far-reaching. It stipulates that future American military assistance to Ukraine will count as part of the US investment into the fund, rather than calling for reimbursement for past assistance."

President Trump's initial reaction after the signing was seen in the following:

Speaking Wednesday in a call with NewsNation, Trump said he made the deal to “protect” Washington’s contribution to the Ukrainian war effort. “We made a deal today where we get, you know, much more in theory, than the $350 billion but I wanted to be protected,” Trump said.

“I didn’t want to be out there and look foolish,” he continued, voicing the administration's longtime complaints that Zelensky only asks for "more and more" - and yet is still losing the war.

Meanwhile, the ceasefire process is still basically stalled, as neither side has backed off of their demands and conditions. President Zelensky has recently reiterated that he can't even legally give up Crimea.

However, Trump presidential special envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg has told Fox News that Ukraine is ready to make territorial concessions, but wouldn't see any ceded territory as a permanent situion. 

"Not de jure forever, but de facto, because the Russians actually occupy that and they've agreed to that. They know that if they have a ceasefire in place, which means you sit on the ground that you currently hold, that's what they're willing to go to," the envoy said. "You have your line set, and they're willing to go there," Kellogg emphasized. 

But it's clear the Kremlin sees this as an issue of sovereignty and permanence, given President Putin has described the four annexed territories and Crimea as "ours forever".

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/01/2025 - 09:05

Jobless Claims Jumped Last Week As 'DOGE Actions' Spark Biggest YTD Layoffs Since 2020

Jobless Claims Jumped Last Week As 'DOGE Actions' Spark Biggest YTD Layoffs Since 2020

So far this year, employers have announced 602,493, the highest year-to-date total since 2020 when 1,017,812 job cuts were recorded, according to the latest data from global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

It is up 87% from the 322,043 cuts announced during the same period in 2024.

The Government leads all sectors in job cuts this year with 282,227; 281,452 of which are attributed to DOGE-related cost-cutting. 

This is up 680% from the 36,195 job cuts announced in this sector through April 2024. In April, the number of job cuts announced in this industry was 2,782. DOGE actions were attributed to 2,731, while the rest were attributed to “Economic Conditions” and “Cost-Cutting.”

  • “DOGE Actions” lead all job cut reasons in 2025 with 283,172; 2,919 of which occurred in April. Another 6,945 cuts were attributed to “DOGE Downstream Impact” through April, primarily at Non-Profits and Education organizations. These reasons combined (290,117) make up 48% of all job cuts announced so far in 2025. 

  • Market/Economic Conditions were cited for 95,348 job cuts, as economic uncertainty, consumer spending, and trade difficulties impact US-companies. 

Tariffs were cited for 1,413 cuts so far this year, with 1,350 occurring in April. Restructuring accounted for 67,627, and 60,551 were due to store, unit, or location “Closing.”

This weak labor market data comes on the heels of yesterday's dismal ADP Employment report.

This morning we see initial jobless claims jump notably too - to 241k (higher than the 223k expected). While not out of recent norms, this is a sizable jump...

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, New York dominated the surge in initial claims...

Continuing jobless claims also surged last week, back above 1.9 million Americans - its highest since Nov 2021...

Continuing claims for the 'Deep TriState' rose significantly last week...

Source: Bloomberg

As SouthBay Research highlights, the ~80K jump in Continuing Claims is relatively broad, with core drivers being New York (+14K), California (+9K), Connecticut (+5K), New Jersey (+4K), Texas (+6K). 

This most definitely points to economic headwinds translating into lower payrolls

While the 1-week 80K jump stems mainly from the seasonal adjustments (Non Seasonally Adjusted Continuing Claims rose 26K), it clearly points to lower hiring underway in the first 2-weeks of April. Precisely when the Nonfarm Payroll Survey was done.

Still, in context, it seems CEOs are all willing to whine about the economy but their actions speak louder than their words...

Though the Government cuts are front and center, we saw job cuts across sectors last month. Generally, companies are citing the economy and new technology. Employers are slow to hire and limiting hiring plans as they wait and see what will happen with trade, supply chain, and consumer spending,” Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President and workplace expert for Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

...and none of this is a good sign for tomorrow's all-important payrolls print.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/01/2025 - 08:39

US Futures Surge On Blowout Tech Earnings, Erasing April's Losses

US Futures Surge On Blowout Tech Earnings, Erasing April's Losses

US equity futures are sharply higher, erasing all of April's losses on blowout earnings from MSFT and META, and relief over signs the Trump administration is stepping back from its harshest tariff threats. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures rose 1.2% to 5655, the highest level since before Trump's Liberation Day announcement and pointing to an eighth consecutive session of gains for the cash index; Nasdaq futures gained 1.7%, as META and MSFT added +6.3% and +7.8%, respectively; most Mag 7 names, NVDA (3.7%) and semis are higher given META’s CapEx increase and MSFT’s reiteration on CapEx guidance. The dollar is higher after the BOJ finally flipped dovish and slashed its growth target pushing USDJPY to 144.5 this morning. It's light on overnight news as most of Europe is closed today ex-UK along with China; US/Ukraine signed an agreement over the country’s natural resources, UK Manf PMI printed better but remained in contraction, and Trump reiterated that there is a “very good chance” of a deal with China on NewsNation last night. Commodities are mostly lower: WTI -1.2%; Gold -1.7%. The US economic calendar includes weekly jobless claims (8:30am), April manufacturing PMI (9:45am), ISM manufacturing and March construction spending (10am). Fed’s external communications blackout ahead of the May 7 FOMC meeting. Apple and Amazon results are due after the market close.

In premarket trading, the Magnificent Seven are mostly higher: Microsoft (MSFT) gains 8% after the company reported stronger-than-expected quarterly sales and profit growth. Meta (META) jumps 6% after the company’s advertising sales quelled Wall Street concerns about the impact of the Trump administration’s trade war. Apple was the only tech giant in the red, falling 1.4% after a federal judge said in a ruling that it violated a court order requiring it to open up the App Store to third-party payment options (other Mag7s are up Nvidia +4.6%, Amazon +3.7%, Alphabet +1%, Tesla +0.7%).
McDonald’s Corp. (MCD) declines 1.4% as sales fell in the first quarter, reflecting a deterioration in consumer sentiment that’s making it harder for restaurants to lure in diners. Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) drops 5% after the company cut its earnings outlook. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Align Technology rises 10% after the Invisalign company reported quarterly shipments that beat the average analyst estimate.
  • Confluent Inc. falls 10% after the provider of a streaming platform gave an outlook for second-quarter subscription revenue that fell shy of expectations. First quarter results showed a slowdown in additions of customers with $100,000 in annual recurring revenue.
  • CVS Health rises 8% after the company boosted its adjusted earnings per-share-guidance for the full year and reported better-than-expected results for the first quarter
  • E2open shares are up 34% after WiseTech Global, in response to media reports about its being in discussions to acquire E2open, said it was participating in a strategic review process.
  • KKR & Co. rises 2% after the investment firm reported assets under management that beat the average analyst estimate. Fee-related earnings also came in above analysts’ expectations.
  • Qualcomm falls 5% as the biggest maker of chips that run smartphones gave a tepid revenue prediction for the current quarter, underscoring concerns that tariffs will hurt demand for its products.
  • Robinhood gains 4% after the trading platform’s earnings largely beat expectations, with analysts highlighting positive trends in April amid market volatility and a boost from a lower tax rate.
  • Shake Shack falls 3% after posting first-quarter results.
  • Wayfair gains 5% after posting adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.

Tech giants added to investor optimism that deals between the US and its partners would limit the damage from Trump’s trade war. Wall Street ended a tumultuous month on a day in which the S&P 500 erased an intraday drop of more than 2% to close 0.2% higher. Traders sought reassurance in bets on Federal Reserve easing after the US economy contracted for the first time since 2022. 

“So far we’re seeing big tech companies deliver on earnings, which is reassuring, and it’s this reassurance which is supporting equity market futures,” said Georgios Leontaris, chief investment officer for EMEA at HSBC Global Private Banking. “The other element of the story beyond earnings is obviously the ongoing debate as to whether we’ve seen peak tariff noise or not.”

Apple results are due after the market close. Analysts will be listening closely for any further detail on how the company, whose supply chain is reliant on China, Vietnam, and India, views the impact of tariffs

The White House said it was nearing an announcement of a first tranche of trade deals with partners that would reduce planned tariffs. Sentiment was also helped by a report that the US has been proactively reaching out to China through various channels. At the same time, Trump said he would not rush deals to appease nervous investors.

The US and Ukraine reached a deal over access to the country’s natural resources, offering a measure of assurance to officials in Kyiv who had feared Trump would pull back his support in peace talks with Russia.

Elsewhere, most markets in Europe and many in Asia are shut for holidays. The UK’s FTSE 100 index was steady, following 13 days of gains, the longest winning streak since 2017. Gains in material and industrial names are offset by losses in energy and health care. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.3%. the yen is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.9% against the greenback after the Bank of Japan pushed back the timing for when it expects to reach its inflation target and slashed its growth forecasts. The pound and euro are little changed.

In rates, treasuries climb, pushing US 10-year yields down 2 bp to 4.14%. Treasury spreads remain within a basis point of Wednesday’s close, as gains remain broad-based across the curve. Gilts are steady, with UK 10-year borrowing costs flat at 4.44%. Treasury futures edge higher into the early US session, on the day’s highs with yields lower by 1bp to 2bp across the curve. US session focus includes weekly jobless claims along with both ISM and PMI manufacturing reports.

In commodities, oil prices decline, with WTI falling 2.3% to below $57 a barrel; the drop followed the biggest monthly drop since 2021, as signs that the Saudi-led OPEC+ alliance may be entering a prolonged period of higher output added to concerns the trade war will hurt demand.  Spot gold is down $65 at $3,223/oz, falling for a third day on signs of potential trade-talk progress between the US and several other nations, quelling demand for havens even as signs of slowdowns have emerged in the largest economies. Bitcoin rises 1% and above $95,000. 

Looking at today's calendar, we get the April Challenger job cuts (7:30am), weekly jobless claims (8:30am), April manufacturing PMI (9:45am), ISM manufacturing and March construction spending (10am). Fed’s external communications blackout ahead of the May 7 FOMC meeting

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini +1.2%
  • Nasdaq 100 mini +1.6%
  • Russell 2000 mini +0.3%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
  • DAX +0.3%
  • CAC 40 +0.5%
  • 10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.15%
  • VIX -0.9 points at 23.85
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.2% at 1226.38
  • euro little changed at $1.1324
  • WTI crude -2% at $57.02/barrel

Top Overnight news

  • The US and Ukraine signed an agreement over access to the country’s natural resources. The deal will see the US will get first claim on profits transferred into a jointly managed investment fund that’s intended in part to reimburse the US for future military assistance. BBG
  • House Republicans are seriously considering proposals to further limit tax deductions that companies can take for their highest-paid workers’ compensation, expanding restrictions that now apply only to a handful of current or former executives making more than $1 million, according to people familiar with the discussions. WSJ
  • US President Trump said we are going to have 'Made in the USA' like never before and he stated give us a little time to get moving regarding the economy. Furthermore, Trump said interest rates should go down and reiterated that "he (Powell) should reduce interest rates, I understand them better than him", as well as noted it would be nice for people wanting to buy homes and things.
  • There was some chatter that the House Ways and Means Committee is going to mark up their tax package on May 8th: Punchbowl.
  • Elon Musk said he’s considering sending DOGE to the Fed, citing a costly renovation of its headquarters as an example of potential government waste. BBG
  • The yen dropped as much as 1.2% after the BOJ pushed back the timing for when it expects to reach its inflation target and Governor Kazuo Ueda spoke of uncertainties due to tariffs. For now, policymakers kept rates at 0.5%. BBG
  • China feels the white house is “too divided” on trade policy and will hold off on entering serious trade talks with the US while it waits to see which of Trump’s advisors will have his ear and how other countries respond to the 90 day pause on tariffs. SCMP
  • Saudi Arabian officials are briefing allies and industry experts to say the kingdom is unwilling to prop up the oil market with further supply cuts and can handle a prolonged period of low prices, five sources with knowledge of the talks said. This possible shift in Saudi policy could suggest a move toward producing more and expanding its market share, a major change after five years spent balancing the market through deep output as a leader of the OPEC+ group of oil producers. RTRS
  • The EU is planning to share a paper with the US next week that will set out a package of proposals to kick-start trade negotiations with the Trump administration. The paper will propose lowering trade and non-tariff barriers, boosting European investments in the US, cooperating on global challenges such as tackling China’s steel overcapacity and purchasing US goods like liquefied natural gas and technologies. BBG
  • Janet Yellen has warned that Trump’s tariffs will have a “tremendously adverse” impact on the US economy as they “hobble” companies that rely on critical mineral supplies from China. She added: “I’m not yet ready to say that I’m forecasting a recession, but certainly the odds have gone way up. FT
  • Microsoft beat estimates and showed strong growth in its key Azure cloud business, while Meta also topped estimates and raised its full-year capex forecast as it continues to invest in AI. With first-quarter earnings in full swing the scorecard so far has shown resilience amid Trump’s trade war. The next big test comes after the close, when Apple and Amazon report. BBG

Tariffs/Trade

  • US President Trump reiterated there is a very good chance that they will make a deal with China and any deal has to be on their terms, while he added that they are negotiating with India, South Korea and Japan.
  • US President Trump said after a certain amount of time, there will be a tariff wall for pharmaceutical companies.
  • USTR Greer said it is a matter of weeks not months to have initial trade deals announced and he is meeting with Japan, Guyana and Saudi Arabia on Thursday and with the Philippines on Friday. Greer added he wouldn't say they are 'finish-line' close on an India trade deal but noted he has a standing call with India's Trade Minister and said they are working closely with the UK and moving quickly with countries ready to move forward on trade. Furthermore, Greer said Canadian PM Carney is a serious person and that President Trump wants a healthy relationship in North America, while he added there are no official talks with China yet and that harmful foreign trade practices, including those in China, need to be addressed.
  • China is to hold off on entering serious trade discussions with the US while it waits to see which of US President Trump’s advisers will have his ear and how other countries will respond to the 90-day pause on tariffs, according to a source cited by SCMP
  • US Senate narrowly rejected a bipartisan measure to block Trump tariffs with the vote count at 49-49.

Notable Earnings

  • eBay Inc (EBAY): Shares +0.5% pre-market. Q1 profit beat estimates, and revenue also increased. The company announced that Peggy Alford was appointed CFO, replacing Steve Priest, as the company adjusts its leadership. It reported Q1 adj. EPS of 1.38 (exp. 1.34), Q1 revenue of USD 2.6bln (exp. 2.55bln). Q1 gross merchandise volume USD 18.75bln (exp. 18.52bln); International GMV USD 9.69bln (exp. 9.58bln); US GMV USD 9.07bln (exp. 8.92bln). In Q1, it had 134mln active buyers (exp. 134.17mln). Sees Q2 revenue between USD 2.59-2.66bln (exp. 2.60bln), and sees Q2 adj. EPS between 1.24-1.31 (exp. 1.29). (Newswires)
  • Meta Platforms (META) - Shares +6.5% pre-market following a Q1 beat, while Q2 guidance was in line with expectations. Q1 revenue rose +16% to USD 42.31bln (exp. USD 41.4bln), with EPS of USD 6.43 (exp. USD 5.28); Q1 advertising sales were USD 41.39bln (exp. 40.55bln). Exec said daily users reached 3.43bln, while Threads has now has more than 350mln monthly active users. FY25 CapEx guidance was increased to USD 64–72bn for 2025 (prev. saw 60-65bln), and exec said that increased CapEx will bring data centre capacity online quicker. On AI, exec said its Meta AI app is focused on scaling and engagement this year, with business integration planned for next year; nearly 1bln monthly active users now use Meta AI across its apps. Exec also said that the EC's ruling may hit its EU business, where it will need to make modifications to ads model which could have significant impact to European business and revenue as early as Q3, while Asia ad spend fell amid regulatory uncertainty. Sees Q2 revenue between USD 42.5bln-45.5bln (exp. 44.41bln), lowered its FY25 total expenses view to USD 113bln-118bln (prev. saw 114-119bln). (Newswires)
  • Microsoft (MSFT) - Shares +8.1% pre-market following a beat on Q3 sales and profits, driven by 20% cloud growth amid strong AI demand. The tech giant reported Q3 adj. EPS of 3.46 (exp. 3.21), Q3 revenue USD 70.1bln (exp. 68.41bln); Q3 CapEx USD 16.75bln (exp. 16.28bln). Azure and other cloud services revenue (Ex-FX) surged +33% (exp. +31%), with Azure growth attributable to AI 16pts (exp. 15.6ppts); the majority of Azure outperformance in Q3 was in its non-AI business. Q3 Cloud sales USD 42.4bln (exp. 42.22bln), Q3 Intelligent Cloud sales USD 26.8bln (exp. 25.99bln). Exec said H2 total CapEx view remains unchanged vs January guidance. Sees Q4 revenue between 73.3bln-73.4bln (exp. 72.0bln), Q4 CapEx expected to increase on a sequential basis, Q4 cloud gross margin expected to be 67% (down Y/Y), Q4 Intelligent Cloud revenue seen between USD 28.75bln-29.05bln (exp. 28.52bln), while Q4 Azure and other cloud services revenue growth is expected to be 34-35% in constant currency. Exec said that FY26 CapEx is expected to grow at a lower rate than FY25. (Newswires)
  • Qualcomm (QCOM) - Shares +5.7% pre-market after it topped Q2 top- and bottom-line estimates, but Q3 guidance was light, and it sees a sales hit from US tariffs ahead. It reported Q2 adj. EPS 2.85 (exp. 2.80), Q2 revenue USD 10.84bln (exp. 10.60bln); Q2 QCT revenue USD 9.47bln (exp. 9.23bln), Q2 QTL revenue USD 1.32bln (exp. 1.35bln); Q2 Internet of Things revenue USD 1.58bln (exp. 1.45bln), Handsets revenue USD 6.93bln (exp. 6.84bln), Automotive revenue USD 959mln (exp. 909.8mln). Sees Q3 adj. EPS 2.60-2.80 (exp. 2.66), Q3 revenue between USD 9.9-10.7bln (exp. 10.33bln), sees Q3 QCT revenue between USD 8.7-9.3bln (exp. 8.98bln), and sees Q3 QTL revenue between 1.15-1.35bln (exp. 1.3bln). (Newswires)

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newquawk

APAC stocks traded higher but with gains capped in severely thinned conditions owing to mass holiday closures across the region and in Europe for Labour Day. ASX 200 eked mild gains as the outperformance in tech, real estate and consumer staples was offset by losses across the commodity-related sectors, while trade data was mixed as Australian monthly exports returned to growth but imports contracted. Nikkei 225 advanced at the open after having reclaimed the 36,000 level and with further upside seen after the BoJ policy announcement where the central bank kept rates unchanged at 0.50% and provided some dovish rhetoric despite maintaining its rate hike signal.

Top Asian News

  • BoJ maintained its short-term interest rate target at 0.5%, as expected, with the decision made by unanimous vote, while it said it will continue to raise the policy rate if the economy and prices move in line with its forecast and will conduct monetary policy appropriately from the perspective of sustainably and stably achieving the 2% inflation target. BoJ said Japan's economic growth is likely to moderate and underlying consumer inflation is likely to be at a level generally consistent with the 2% target in the second half of the projection period from fiscal 2025 through 2027, as well as noted that uncertainty surrounding Japan's economy and prices remains high with risks to the economic outlook and inflation outlook are skewed to the downside. Furthermore, it lowered its evaluation of the economic outlook and warned that a prolonged period of high uncertainties regarding trade and other policies could lead firms to focus more on cost-cutting, and as a result, moves to reflect price rises in wages could also weaken. In terms of the Outlook Report projections, the Real GDP median forecast for Fiscal 2025 was cut to 0.5% from 1.1% and the Fiscal 2026 estimate was cut to 0.7% from 1.0%, while the Core CPI median forecast for Fiscal 2025 was cut to 2.2% from 2.4% and the Fiscal 2026 forecast was cut to 1.7% from 2.0%.
  • BoJ's Ueda Press Conference: Uncertainty from trade policy has heightened sharply. Expect to keep raising rates if the economy and prices move as projected. Timing to attain the underlying 2% inflation target will be delayed. Price goal timing delay doesn't mean delay in hikes; timing of trend inflation does not necessarily correlate with the timing of a hike.

Due to Labour Day across Europe, cash and derivatives markets are closed across Euronext services and those run by other European exchanges such as Deutsche Boerse, SIX and Nasdaq (Scandinavia closed ex-Copenhagen). The UK’s FTSE 100 is one of the few indices in Europe which is open today; currently flat.

Top European news

  • EU is to present trade proposals to the US next week, according to Bloomberg citing officials.

FX

  • DXY is up for a third consecutive session with the USD firmer vs. all major peers. On the trade front, the White House administration continues to talk up the possibilities of imminent trade deals. Reports suggest that the US reached out to China recently for tariff talks. However, Chinese press notes that China is to hold off on entering serious trade discussions with the US while it waits to see which of US President Trump’s advisers will have his ear and how other countries will respond to the 90-day pause on tariffs. Ahead, Challenger layoffs, weekly claims and ISM manufacturing PMI are all due. DXY ventured as high as 100.08, but has recently waned off that high to a current 99.75 level.
  • EUR is essentially flat vs. the USD with most of Europe away from the market on account of Labour Day. In terms of macro updates for the region, Bloomberg reported that the EU is to present trade proposals to the US next week. EUR/USD hit a trough overnight at 1.1288 before returning to the 1.13 handle.
  • JPY is the clear laggard across the majors after the BoJ opted to stand pat on rates (as expected) whilst cutting its Real GDP and Core CPI estimates in its quarterly outlook report; the FY 2025 GDP estimate saw a sizable downgrade to 0.5% from 1.1%. At the follow-up press conference by Governor Ueda, USD/JPY continued its ascent to a peak at 144.75 with Ueda noting that the timing to attain the underlying 2% inflation target will be delayed. However, upside was trimmed after he stated that a delay in the timing of the price goal doesn't mean a delay in hikes.
  • GBP is flat vs. the USD with incremental macro drivers remaining light. On the trade front, USTR Greer said the US is working closely with the UK and moving quickly with countries ready to move forward on trade. Local elections are taking place in the UK today with a focus on the extent of Conservative losses, the performance of Labour and how much ground the Reform Party can make; not expected to be a market mover. Cable has delved as low as 1.3275 but has since reclaimed the 1.33 mark and now sits around 1.3320. UK Manufacturing PMI was subject to an upward revision, but ultimately had little impact on the GBP.
  • Antipodeans are both softer vs. the broadly firmer USD and tracking losses in global peers. AUD saw little follow-through from mixed trade data as Australian monthly exports returned to growth but imports contracted.

Fixed Income

  • The BoJ left rates unchanged as expected. JGBs were bid though as the accompanying forecasts were lowered for both Real GDP and Core CPI, pushing back the timing for when underlying inflation is likely to be at a level generally consistent with the 2% target. In totality, this lifted JGBs from 141.05 to 141.34 though the upside did dissipate almost entirely in the gap between the announcement and Governor Ueda. Ueda for the most part stuck to the script of the statement and made it very clear that the BoJ is facing significant uncertainty in its forecasts. Ueda’s reiteration that there will be a delay to attaining the underlying 2% inflation target sparked another bout of dovishness, lifting JGBs to a fresh 141.42 peak.
  • A very slow start to the session for USTs given the absence of European participants for Labour Day (China also away). USTs are firmer and at a 112-12 peak, but one that is shy of the 112-16 high from Wednesday. As was the case on Wednesday, any concerted move higher enters a patch of clean air before resistance at 114-03+ and 114-10 from early-April.
  • Gilts opened higher by around 30 ticks before extending a handful more to a 93.86 peak, influenced by the upside seen in JGBs post-BoJ/Ueda. On the data front, April's Manufacturing PMI was revised slightly higher (but still in contractionary territory) and a significant jump in Mortgage Lending during March; the latter comes alongside a 3bps drop in the effective rate on new and outstanding mortgages to 4.5% and 3.84% respectively during the period and ahead of Stamp Duty alterations which kicked in alongside the new FY in April.

Commodities

  • Crude is on the backfoot and trading lower by around USD 1.00/bbl, in a continuation of the prior day's downside. As a reminder, oil prices slumped on Wednesday following reports that Saudi officials briefed allies and industry experts that the kingdom can sustain a prolonged period of low oil prices.
  • Gold is pressured given the positive risk tone in the US and as the Dollar makes modest gains. Yellow metal has been as low as USD 3.2k/oz, over USD 100/oz from the week’s opening levels despite the series of soft data for the US as the inflationary part of the stagflationary narrative and modest yield curve steepening weighs on XAU.
  • Base metals were contained trade overnight given the mass holiday closures and absence of the metals largest buyer, China, for a long weekend (May 1st-5th). This morning, 3M LME Copper has picked up tracking the broader macro tone with US futures strong after earnings, 3M LME Copper back above the USD 9.2k mark.

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • US Secretary of Defence Hegseth said Iran will pay the consequence for supporting Houthis.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

  • US and Ukraine signed an agreement on access to natural resources and to establish a US-Ukraine reconstruction investment fund. It was also reported that the US Treasury said the Treasury Department and US International Development Finance Corporation will work with Ukraine to finalise programme governance and advance the partnership, while it added that the agreement signals clearly to Russia that the Trump administration is committed to a peace process centred on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term. Furthermore, Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US–Ukraine economic partnership agreement allows the United States to invest alongside Ukraine to "unlock Ukraine's growth assets".
  • US Senator Graham, who is a close ally of President Trump, is forging ahead on a plan to impose new sanctions on Russia and steep tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil, gas and uranium, while the bill also would impose a 500% tariff on imported goods from any country that purchases Russian oil, gas, uranium and other products, according to WSJ.

US Event Calendar

  • 7:30 am: Apr Challenger Job Cuts YoY, prior 204.8%, revised 204.78%
  • 8:30 am: Apr 26 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 223k, prior 222k
  • 8:30 am: Apr 19 Continuing Claims, est. 1864.5k, prior 1841k
  • 9:45 am: Apr F S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, est. 50.5, prior 50.7
  • 10:00 am: Apr ISM Manufacturing, est. 47.9, prior 49
  • 10:00 am: Apr ISM Prices Paid, est. 73, prior 69.4
  • 10:00 am: Mar Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.7%
Tyler Durden Thu, 05/01/2025 - 08:26

"Cash Is King": Mark Mobius Says His Funds Hold 95% Cash

"Cash Is King": Mark Mobius Says His Funds Hold 95% Cash

The key question facing equity markets now is whether the April 8 low marked a floor — or merely a trap door for bulls. 

Veteran emerging-markets investor Mark Mobius joined Bloomberg TV earlier, warning, "Cash is king" as he waits for the trade war storm and mounting macroeconomic headwinds to blow over. 

"At this stage, cash is king. So 95% of my money in the funds are in cash," Mobius said in an interview, adding, "Right now, we've got to keep the cash and be ready to move when the time is right."

Mobius continued: "If the market comes down further, of course we will put more money in." 

He said he owns "a little bit with S&P 500 funds" to track the market and expects higher prices by the end of the year.

"Trump doesn't want to see a big market crash, so he will be making adjustments and announcements, which will give a little bit more confidence for people in the market," the legendary investor said. 

He pointed out that he has "become very bullish on China" and sees possibilities for Beijing to boost trade and domestic consumption amid the ongoing trade war.

By late Tuesday morning in the US, main equity futures tumbled following a series of negative prints that cast dark shadows over the US economy:

Main equity futures were dumped following the bad macro prints.

However, there is good news:

Implied four cuts by year's end. 

Separately from Mobius' interview, Goldman analyst Vickie Chang offered clients a market snapshot on Tuesday, assessing whether the April 8 low marked a concrete bottom for stocks — or if another leg lower is still ahead:

  • The most immediate question for markets is whether there is fresh downside to come. We said that a shift in trade policy was the most obvious route for recovery in risk assets, and there has been a modest version of that dynamic since April 9. Even though the economic impact is yet to be felt, it is possible that we are past the peak of new tariff "shocks" and policy uncertainty.

  • In past equity corrections, markets tended to bottom near the trough in economic activity. But if there was a clear cause of the weakness, it was enough for the market to see the peak in pressure from that source to conclude that activity would bottom soon, and for equities to trough ahead of that. In episodes where the source was less easy to track, the market did not trough until economic growth itself started to bottom.

  • What matters now is whether the current episode is more like past "shock"-driven corrections where the tariff shock having seemingly peaked could be enough to mark the market bottom, or whether this will ultimately be a scenario where the economic data needs to stabilize first. It is possible that simply being through the worst of the shock has allowed the market to set some limits on the process, even if the damage is yet to be felt and if the underlying economic situation remains bad for some time.

  • Despite that possibility, we still think there is significant vulnerability in a recession scenario, even if the worst of the underlying "shock" has passed, for three reasons: 1) It has generally been true that in shock-driven corrections, there has been a meaningful reversal and not just a peak in the source of the pressure. So the tariff reversal may need to be more dramatic to be equivalent to those past peaks. 2) The unemployment rate matters a lot for the pricing of risk, and it has been some time since the economy has undergone a period of job and portfolio losses happening together. 3) The 19% drawdown so far would be relatively mild relative to past recessionary drawdowns and would have entirely taken place before economic damage is seen, which would be historically unusual.

  • It is worth keeping an open mind given the unprecedented nature of the current shock, but continued market recovery from here means putting an increasing weight on the belief that recessionary dynamics will not take hold, and requires confidence in the market's ability to look through what is likely to be a further weakening in the data. We think the balance of risks still argues for expecting renewed declines in equity prices from current levels and for adding downside protection, especially if further relaxation makes that protection cheaper.

Just days ago, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett told clients to "sell rips" and stay long "BIG" (his favorite trade idea for 2025, namely Bonds, International Stocks, and Gold). 

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/01/2025 - 06:55

Lower Drug Prices: A Great Deal For America

Lower Drug Prices: A Great Deal For America

Authored by Steve Cortes via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Last November, Americans sent a clear election message and delivered President Trump a clear mandate: Prices are way too high. While inflation has hit our grocery stores (up 23.6% since 2020) and housing costs (up 30.9% since 2020), there’s another cost outpacing the rest when it comes to price hikes. Prescription drugs have jumped 46.2% since 2020, forcing Americans to pay the highest price in the world for life-saving medications. No wonder citizens are angry.

In 2022, Congress passed legislation that gave the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) the authority to negotiate lower drug prices on behalf of Medicare beneficiaries for the first time. As this administration targets cost-saving measures across government, this program is projected to save billions of dollars, with an estimated $1.5 billion in savings for seniors next year alone and $100 billion in total taxpayer savings over 10 years.

Thankfully, President Trump knows how to negotiate. With his leadership, Medicare negotiation could be just the start in a larger effort to earn a better deal for Americans on prescription drugs. This issue presents an enormous opportunity for the president to bolster his legacy by protecting and expanding the government’s ability to crack down on corrupt lobbyists and special interests and allow the government to negotiate directly with drug manufacturers to lower prescription drug prices for the American people.

This issue is not new to President Trump, who has long railed against the corruption and greed in the pharmaceutical industry. He recognizes that “we pay, as a country, so much more for drugs because of the drug lobbies,” whom he says are “getting away with murder.” Trump’s solution? “Tougher negotiation [and] more competition [will lead to] much lower prices.” As one of the early voices calling for Medicare to negotiate drug prices back in 2016, this is his moment to make this promise into reality.

Now that he’s back in the White House, Trump can reaffirm his commitment to reducing costs for seniors and cutting government spending, two of his biggest priorities. Consistent with his clear mission to root out waste, fraud, and abuse in the federal government, he has already begun to implement this cost-saving plan by supporting and defending Medicare’s ability to negotiate lower drug prices.

If the drug lobby is successful in fighting against Trump by rolling back Medicare’s negotiation authority, the biggest winners would be – you guessed it – pharmaceutical companies, which would return to charging inflated prices, forcing both the government and everyday Americans to bear the cost, increasing prices of prescription drugs by a shocking 46.2%, effectively doubling their cost.

President Trump has long been a vocal critic of Big Pharma. His leadership can yet again make him the strongest voice ever in holding the industry accountable. Backing policies that rein in drug prices would be a major victory not just for his administration, but for every American family.

I know President Trump will continue to fight for the American people because he understands that Americans should never be taken advantage of by the drug lobby. This is President Trump’s chance to do it big by standing up to Big Pharma and ensuring drug prices come down. That’s a deal that every American can get behind.

Steve Cortes is a former advisor to President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance and a former commentator on Fox News and CNN.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/01/2025 - 06:30

Ukraine Signs Final Trump-Brokered Minerals Deal, Giving US Preferential Access To Resources

Ukraine Signs Final Trump-Brokered Minerals Deal, Giving US Preferential Access To Resources

Update(1740): After some last-minute hiccups which threatened to derail it, the US and Ukraine have finally signed the much-anticipated and controversial minerals deal.

"The deal will grant the US privileged access to new investment projects to develop Ukraine's natural resources including aluminum, graphite, oil and natural gas," the breaking Bloomberg note says.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko signed it late in the day Wednesday in Washington, after the US side demanded that all aspects on the table be agreed to by Kiev. Below are some known details of the landmark agreement via Axios:

  • The government-to-government agreement would establish a joint fund, with each country contributing 50% of the financing and future U.S. military assistance to Ukraine counting as a contribution to the fund.
  • The fund will be governed jointly and will have three U.S. members and three Ukrainian members on its board.
  • The money in the fund will be used for investments in the extraction of Ukraine's rare earth minerals, oil and gas. The revenue will be split 50/50.
  • Kachka said the agreement gives the U.S. preferential access to investments in any operator that extracts rare earths in Ukraine and the first right of refusal for such investments.

So did Zelensky finally say "thank you" as previously requested by the Trump administration? 

* * *

Update(1045ET): Another minerals deal headline that wasn't... not for the first time, a Ukrainian delegation's plane may have been literally rerouted mid-air amid Wednesday reports that the Trump-backed deal was to be signed in Washington within 'hours'. Financial Times reports:

Ukraine’s first deputy prime minister, Yulia Svyrydenko, has flown to Washington to sign the deal with US treasury secretary Scott Bessent, said three Ukrainian officials. But problems arose as Svyrydenko’s plane headed to Washington, and Bessent’s team told her she should “be ready to sign all agreements, or go back home”, said three people familiar with the matter. 

Apparently the Zelensky government was not ready to sign onto all that the Trump administration required. This even after the US reportedly dropped conditions related to Ukraine paying back debt for prior US military or financial assistance

"The US and Ukraine ran into last-minute hurdles on Wednesday as they were on the verge of signing a framework minerals deal, when a dispute over what had been agreed in marathon overnight negotiations cast doubt on the deal being finalized," FT writes.

"The Americans want the Ukrainians to sign both the framework deal and a detailed fund agreement that would complete the full minerals deal on Wednesday, said two Ukrainian officials."

This seems to be the same story on repeat for months: "One person familiar with the US’s thinking said on Wednesday that negotiations had not concluded because Ukraine had sought to revisit terms agreed at the weekend," FT continues.

President Trump's reaction is going to be interesting, given he's already repeatedly blasted Zelensky for being 'late' on signing the deal. Washington could be ready at this point to cut him and the Ukrainian cause lose, after previously briefly halting arms transfers and intelligence-sharing.

* * *

After several false starts and timeline projections which didn't pan out, Ukraine is imminently ready to sign the mineral resources deal with the US, Bloomberg has quoted a source close to negotiations as saying.

"The draft agreement, which envisages creating a joint fund to manage Ukraine’s investment projects, has been finalized and may be signed as soon as Wednesday, the person said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the talks are private," the report says, noting that Ukrainian Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko is en route Washington for the signing.

Via Associated Press

A source in Ukrainian President Zelensky's office has separately told the Kyiv Independent that it will be signed by Wednesday evening. A draft document says the deal seeks to create conditions to "increase investment in mining, energy, and related technology in Ukraine."

Crucially,  the agreement excludes any conditions which say it is related to Ukraine's debt for prior US military or financial assistance. Kiev and many of its European allies had balked at that prior controversial proposal, which had centered on Trump's insistence that Ukraine pay back the hundreds of billions provided by the American taxpayer after over three years of war.

Bloomberg details, "In another breakthrough, the US has agreed that only future military assistance it may provide to Ukraine following the signing of the deal would count toward its contribution to the fund, according to the document."

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal first unveiled Sunday that the Trump administration had dropped this requirement of paying back past debt.

The document "strengthens the strategic partnership between the Parties for the long-term reconstruction and modernization of Ukraine, in response to the large-scale destruction caused by Russia’s full-scale invasion" - but many specifics regarding rare earth mineral access remain unclear as of yet.

Washington and Kiev have until now spent months dancing around a deal that would allow the US access to Ukraine's mineral deposits, which was originally proposed by Zelensky as part of his five-point "Victory Plan" unveiled last October to secure US support. 

Many of Kiev's supporters called it insultingly lopsided, and tantamount to a resource grab by the US, with Ukrainian lawmakers at one point calling an earlier revision to the mineral agreement a "horror" that offered no security guarantees from Washington.

Trump was really ramping up the pressure personally on Zelensky just last week...

An initial version of the deal sought to grant the Untied States access to all existing and future mineral deposits across Ukraine, along with oil and gas throughout the country. It would still have to be ratified by Ukrainian parliament after it is signed, theoretically at least and according to Ukrainian law.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/01/2025 - 05:45

Strategic Implications Of North Korea's Expanding Naval Ambitions

Strategic Implications Of North Korea's Expanding Naval Ambitions

Authored by Jihoon Yu via RealClearDefense,

North Korea's recent unveiling of the Choe Hyon-class multipurpose destroyer signals a major transformation in its naval strategy, carrying profound and complex implications for regional and global security. The construction of this 5,000-ton warship marks a deliberate departure from Pyongyang's traditional coastal defense doctrine, historically centered around small, fast attack craft optimized for littoral engagements. Instead, the new platform reflects an ambition to project power across broader maritime domains, signaling a strategic evolution towards an expeditionary, blue-water navy.

The enhanced operational radius provided by the Choe Hyon-class destroyer enables North Korea to extend its naval presence well beyond the Korean Peninsula, threatening key maritime routes and complicating the operational calculus of South Korea, Japan, and the United States. If this platform eventually secures the ability to launch nuclear-armed ballistic and cruise missiles, it would represent a transformative leap in Pyongyang's deterrence posture. Equipped with vertical launch system (VLS), the destroyer could then field a diverse arsenal capable of targeting both land and sea-based assets across considerable distances, significantly elevating the strategic risks in the region.

If North Korea's ongoing efforts to enhance its nuclear capabilities eventually lead to the deployment of nuclear warheads on this platform, the strategic landscape would be further destabilized. Sea-based nuclear platforms would introduce a new layer of strategic complexity. Unlike land-based missile systems, which are more readily tracked and targeted, mobile maritime platforms are inherently more elusive, complicating preemptive strike options and missile defense architectures. This mobility would grant North Korea a potent second-strike capability, eroding confidence in the stability of existing deterrence frameworks. As a result, adversaries may face greater difficulty in distinguishing between conventional and nuclear threats during a crisis, increasing the risk of inadvertent escalation.

The strategic implications would become even more acute if North Korea succeeds in complementing this surface capability with the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs) capable of launching submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). Should Pyongyang succeed in fielding a credible SSBN (ballistic missile submarine) fleet, it would possess a survivable nuclear deterrent, fundamentally altering the strategic balance in Northeast Asia. Reports suggest that North Korea's SSN program has received clandestine assistance, possibly from Russia, accelerating its timeline and technological sophistication.

The unveiling of the Choe Hyon-class destroyer must also be seen within the broader context of North Korea's doctrinal shift toward proactive military operations. Moving away from a historically reactive defense posture, Pyongyang appears increasingly willing to embrace preemptive, offensive maritime strategies aimed at undermining U.S. and allied freedom of navigation in the region. This trajectory raises the possibility of North Korea seeking to impose a regional anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) strategy, leveraging both land- and sea-based assets to constrain allied operational flexibility in a crisis.

Such developments risk fueling a maritime arms race in Northeast Asia, prompting South Korea, Japan, and the United States to accelerate investments in naval modernization, undersea warfare capabilities, and integrated missile defenses. Yet simply matching North Korea platform-for-platform would be insufficient. Addressing the broader strategic challenge requires a comprehensive approach that enhances maritime domain awareness, strengthens alliance interoperability, and builds layered missile defenses capable of countering both conventional and nuclear threats. Enhanced investment in anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities, the deployment of more resilient undersea surveillance systems, the expansion of joint maritime exercises, and the establishment of rapid-reaction maritime forces will also be critical to preempt and deter potential provocations. In particular, South Korea should seriously consider pursuing its own nuclear-powered submarine program to enhance its underwater operational endurance and strategic deterrence, thereby reinforcing its ability to respond flexibly to the evolving undersea threat environment.

Ultimately, the deployment of advanced platforms like the Choe Hyon-class destroyer reflects not merely a technical upgrade, but a profound recalibration of North Korea's strategic ambitions. Pyongyang is no longer content to deter adversaries solely through the threat of land-based nuclear retaliation; it seeks to establish itself as a maritime power capable of projecting coercive influence across the Indo-Pacific. If left unaddressed, North Korea's evolving naval capabilities could significantly erode regional stability and embolden Pyongyang's broader strategic calculus. A coordinated, multidimensional response from the United States, South Korea, Japan, and other regional stakeholders—encompassing deterrence, defense, diplomacy, and sustained pressure on North Korea's illicit networks—is urgently required to mitigate these emerging threats and preserve a credible deterrence posture.

Jihoon Yu is a research fellow and the director of external cooperation at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses. Jihoon was the member of Task Force for South Korea’s light aircraft carrier project and Jangbogo-III submarine project. He is the main author of the ROK Navy’s Navy Vision 2045. His area of expertise includes the ROK-US alliance, the ROK-Europe security cooperation, inter-Korean relations, national security, maritime security, and maritime strategy. He earned his MA in National Security Affairs from the US Naval Postgraduate School and PhD in Political Science from Syracuse University.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/01/2025 - 02:00

India Soon To Surpass UK As Largest Migrant Community In Australia: ABS

India Soon To Surpass UK As Largest Migrant Community In Australia: ABS

Authored by Daniel Y. Teng and Naziya Alvi Rahman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Australia’s population is now more multicultural than ever, with over 8.6 million residents born overseas—about 31.5 percent of the total population.

A young boy enjoys the Diwali light show put on by residents of Phantom Street, Nirimba Fields in western Sydney on Nov. 1, 2024. Brook Mitchell/Getty Images

The biggest surge came from India, which is expected to surpass the UK as the top country of birth for migrants later this year.

The latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that in 2025, there were 963,560 migrants from the UK, 916,330 from India, 700,120 from China (excluding Hong Kong and Macau), 617,960 from New Zealand, and 394,380 from the Philippines.

This was followed by Vietnam (318,760), South Africa (224,160), Nepal (197,800), Malaysia (183,490), and Sri Lanka (172,800).

Overall, the proportion of overseas migrants has steadily increased over recent decades from 23.8 percent in 2004 to 31.5 percent in 2024.

Globally, Australia ranked eighth in terms of the number of international migrants. The United States topped the list with 52.4 million overseas-born residents.

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on the country's overseas-born population. ABS How It Breaks Down

Migration from Europe has steadily declined over the years, with Asian countries becoming the dominant source of new arrivals.

India migration has continued to surge with an additional 505,000 people entering Australia in the decade from 2014 to 2024, followed by China (234,000), the Philippines (164,000), and Nepal (155,000).

“India’s demographics, coupled with its skilled workforce and a high demand for international education, have made Australia a preferred destination,” said Annathurai Gnanasambandam, director of Visa Help Australia, in an interview with The Epoch Times.

On the flipside, the UK recorded the largest decrease in migrants, with 47,000 fewer individuals entering Australia from 2014 to 2024, followed by Italy (44,000), Greece (28,000), and Germany (18,000).

The average median age of European migrants is 60 years and over, reflecting the post-World War II migration trend.

Which Cities?

The demographic make-up of each state and territory differs as well.

In New South Wales, Chinese migrants were the largest source of overseas residents, followed by the British and Indians, according to the 2021 Census.

In Victoria, Indian migration was the largest by far, outstripping Chinese migration by about 90,000 individuals.

In Queensland, New Zealanders and British were the largest overseas communities, followed by Indians and Chinese.

The British were the biggest contributors to Western Australia and Tasmania.

Population Growth a Contentious Issue

Migration has continued to be a sensitive subject as Australians struggle with housing affordability.

The Coalition has accused the Albanese government of mismanaging immigration, with net overseas migration for 2023–24 forecast to reach 340,000—80,000 higher than initial estimates.

Shadow Immigration Minister Dan Tehan blamed Labor for “consistently overshooting” forecasts and pledged to cut permanent migration from 185,000 to 140,000 if elected.

But Treasurer Jim Chalmers defended the government’s position, pointing out that net migration was declining.

“It’s now at its lowest point since the pandemic,” he said, adding the system is being rebalanced to serve Australia’s national interest.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 23:25

Gold Tumbles On Near-Record Chinese Liquidations

Gold Tumbles On Near-Record Chinese Liquidations

Just one week ago, China seemingly couldn't get enough of gold, and the price of spot briefly touched a record $3500 as a result of, among other things, staggering inflows into Chinese gold ETFs such as the Huaan Yifu, Bosera and Guotai gold ETFs.

But, as with all things momentum-based in China, it's easy come, easy go in the land of Dragons, and as Goldman commodity trader Adam Gillard writes, China liquidated what it bought last week ahead of the Labor Day holiday, resulting in total onshore positioning now 5% off the ATH. And while China’s share of total open interest remains on the highs at ~40%, upward momentum may have peaked for the time being.

Here is the story of Chinese gold buying... and then selling, in five charts.

Last Tuesday (22nd April) gold made an ATH as China added 1.2mn oz of positioning across SGE and SHFE, on record volume....

... so fast forward to today, when China liquidated a near-record 1mn oz across SHFE and SGE, reversing the entire April 22 blow-off top.

... although the ETF was largely unchanged

... Resulting in total Chinese positioning now ~5% off the ATH .

And the paper (spec) import arbitrage ~$20/oz off the highs

According to Gillard, who confirms our recent observation that all recent price moves take place exclusively around the time China opens...

... China is having a disproportionate impact on price because they execute during an illiquid part of the day (Asia morning) which likely triggers ex China CTA trading signals. Sure enough, gold is dumping in early Asian trading to the lowest level in 2 weeks.

More int the full Goldman note available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 22:58

Supreme Court Weighs Case About Mistaken FBI Raid

Supreme Court Weighs Case About Mistaken FBI Raid

Authored by Sam Dorman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Supreme Court heard oral arguments on April 29 over whether the FBI should be protected from a civil suit over its mistaken raiding of a Georgia couple’s home in 2017.

The U.S. Supreme Court building in Washington on Feb. 10, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

In the early morning hours of Oct. 18, 2017, FBI Special Agent Lawrence Guerra mistakenly believed he had arrived at a gang member’s home to execute a search warrant. Instead, he smashed through the door of a different home—that of Hilliard Toi Cliatt and his partner, Curtrina Martin.

According to their petition to the Supreme Court, Cliatt pulled Martin into a walk-in closet while her 7-year-old son hid under his bed covers. Guerra eventually realized he had gone to the wrong address, and after raiding the correct home, returned to apologize at the home he had mistakenly raided.

Although Guerra had conducted a pre-dawn drive-by in preparation, court filings state that the GPS directed them to a different home. The address of Cliatt’s and Martin’s home was not on the house itself but was instead on the mailbox and “is not visible from the street,” according to the Justice Department’s filing.

During oral arguments on April 29, the Supreme Court weighed whether Martin and Cliatt should be able to sue the government. A law known as the Federal Tort Claims Act generally allows individuals to sue the government for certain acts, such as assault, false arrest, or abuse of process. It includes an exception, however, for legal claims involving the government’s discretion in performing a particular duty or function.

This was the caveat the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit cited in refusing to allow the couple’s lawsuit to proceed. Martin and Cliatt, however, pointed to a provision added to the law in 1974 after mistaken raids in Collinsville, Illinois. That provision allowed legal arguments by plaintiffs based on “acts or omissions of investigative or law enforcement officers of the United States Government.”

The justices’ line of questioning on April 29 indicated they would remand or send the case back to the appeals court with a narrow win for the couple that entailed more consideration by another judge.

At one point, Justice Neil Gorsuch seemed incredulous at some of the comments made by Assistant to the Solicitor General Frederick Liu, who suggested that the FBI agents’ mistakes were protected as an attempt to exercise discretion. Liu argued that because there was no specific policy directing the FBI agent not to search a house other than the suspect’s, he retained some level of legal protection.

“No policy says don’t break down the wrong house—door of a house ... don’t traumatize its occupants, really?” Gorsuch asked.

Liu said that while the United States’ policy “of course” is to execute warrants at the correct house, “stating the policy at that high level of generality doesn’t foreclose or prescribe any particular action and how an officer goes about identifying the right house.” He went on to suggest that officers may need to consider things such as public safety and efficiency when determining whether to take an “extra precaution” to ensure they’re at the right house.

Gorsuch interjected, saying, “You might look at the address of the house before you knock down the door.”

“Yes,” Liu responded, adding, “that sort of decision is filled with policy tradeoffs.”

Gorsch interrupted, asking, “Really?”

After Liu said that checking the house number at the end of the driveway could expose agents to potential lines of fire, Gorsuch asked, “How about making sure you’re on the right street ... checking the street sign? Is that too much?”

Liu told Justice Sonia Sotomayor that the 1974 addition removed one layer of protection for officers but allowed another layer to stay in place.

“That is so ridiculous,” Sotomayor said. “Congress is looking at the Collinsville raid and providing a remedy to people who have been wrongfully raided, and you’re now saying, no, they really didn’t want to protect them fully.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 22:35

Zombie Tankers Emerge In Venezuelan Oil Trade

Zombie Tankers Emerge In Venezuelan Oil Trade

An increasing number of "zombie" or "phantom" oil tankers—vessels that assume the identities of scrapped ships—have emerged off Venezuela's coast, allowing dark fleet operators to circumvent U.S. trade restrictions on global oil transport. 

According to a Bloomberg report, one of these zombie tankers was recently spotted off the waters of Malaysia after a two-month voyage from Venezuela, raising many red flags. 

The report describes how dark fleet operators transform tankers into floating zombies:

The vessel raised some red flags: it was 32 years old, past the age at which it would normally have been scrapped, and it was sailing under the flag of Comoros, a popular flag of convenience that makes ships harder to monitor.

For all intents and purposes, though, it seemed like any other so-called dark fleet tanker that carries barrels of sometimes sanctioned oil from producers like Russia, Iran and Venezuela. Except it wasn't.

The real Varada, which wasn't sanctioned, had actually been demolished in Bangladesh in 2017. This vessel was what's known as a zombie or phantom ship, which take on the identities of scrapped tankers to appear legitimate and avoid scrutiny from authorities in the U.S. and elsewhere.

Bloomberg investigators obtained ship-tracking data and satellite imagery showing that at least four zombie tankers have been involved in the Venezuelan oil trade with Asia. At the same time, the Trump administration ramped up maximum pressure, forcing Western oil firms to withdraw from the country. 

Last week, John Hurley, a hedge fund veteran who's been nominated to lead the Treasury Department's terrorism and financial intelligence arm, warned about "consequences" for any nation that purchases Venezuelan oil.

Hurley would enforce President Trump's executive order, which could impose 25% tariffs on countries that purchase crude from Venezuela.

"President Trump is sending a clear message that access to our economy is a privilege, not a right, and countries importing Venezuelan oil will face consequences," Hurley wrote in responses to questions from the U.S. Senate Banking Committee. 

Bloomberg first reported zombie tankers in September and November last year, and maritime intelligence analysts have been paying attention.

"Zombie ships are the third way," Starboard analyst Mark Douglas said, adding, "The thinking is like: 'I can't afford to run my own system, so I'll use another ship's identity to get that oil from point A to point B.'"

Using a dark fleet network and zombie tankers, China has quietly become the largest buyer of Venezuelan oil. Perhaps tariffs alone will fall short—maybe Hurley's strategy will involve slapping Beijing in the face with sanctions. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 22:10

Why The US Denied A Request From Mexico For Water

Why The US Denied A Request From Mexico For Water

Authored by Autumn Spredemann via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Mexico’s delinquent water deliveries, in violation of an 81-year-old treaty with the United States, have exposed years of “blind eye” policies, rapid population growth, and hydrological changes, according to an expert at the U.S. Army War College.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock

Evan Ellis, research professor of Latin American studies at the college’s Strategic Studies Institute, told The Epoch Times that recent tensions over Mexico’s delinquent water deliveries have come from “years of looking the other way” on the part of the United States.

U.S. President Donald Trump has requested that the United States’ southern neighbor honor its obligation to deliver 1.3 million acre-feet of water to Texas. The amount totals almost 70 percent of a five-year water commitment that’s due in October.

Just last month, I halted water shipments to Tijuana until Mexico complies with the 1944 Water Treaty,” Trump wrote in an April 10 post on his social media platform, Truth Social.

Under the reciprocal agreement, Mexico is expected to send the United States 1.75 million acre-feet of water over a five-year cycle. That’s an average of 350,000 acre-feet of water each year. The water deliveries primarily come from six tributaries of the Rio Grande, and are stored in the Amistad and Falcon international reservoirs along the river.

One acre-foot of water—one acre of water at a depth of one foot—is roughly enough to fill half of an Olympic-size swimming pool. Mexico’s average annual obligation is enough water to supply 700,000 to 1 million Texas households for a year.

In exchange, the United States agreed to provide Mexico with 1.5 million acre-feet of water from the Colorado River each year—differing from Mexico’s five-year cycle.

The Tijuana shipments that Trump said were halted were part of a non-treaty water request from Mexico.

The U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Western Hemisphere affairs said the United States denied such a request for the first time since the treaty was signed because of Mexico’s noncompliance with its water obligations.

“Mexico’s continued shortfalls in its water deliveries under the 1944 water-sharing treaty are decimating American agriculture—particularly farmers in the Rio Grande valley,” the State Department wrote in a statement on social media platform X on March 20.

According to the International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC), which handles issues related to the 1944 treaty, Mexico has failed to meet its five-year delivery obligations three times since 1992. Each of those debts was carried over to the following cycle and ultimately paid.

Mexico also fell short in average minimum annual deliveries within the 2002–2007 and the 2015–2020 cycles. Those shortfalls were met very close to the end of the cycles—in 2020, within just three days of the deadline.

Although the deliveries were ultimately fulfilled, the unpredictable nature of water deliveries from the Rio Grande has impacted water users on both sides of the border.

The current cycle for both countries ends in October, but according to IBWC data, by March 29, just 28 percent—or less than 500,000 acre-feet of water—of Mexico’s water obligation had been delivered.

A water delivery truck loads water for sale in Tijuana, Mexico, on March 24, 2025. On March 20, the United States announced it denied Mexico’s request for Colorado River water, pressuring the country to meet its obligation to deliver 1.3 million acre-feet of water to Texas under the 1944 Water Treaty. Guillermo Arias/AFP via Getty Images

In response to a query about how much of the United States’ water commitment to Mexico has been met, IBWC public affairs chief Frank Fisher cited an agency graph showing that the United States had met about half of its 2025 commitment as of April 19.

In November 2024, the two countries agreed to a treaty amendment that would give Mexico more ways to meet its water obligation. Those options include providing water from the San Juan and Alamo rivers, which are not part of the Rio Grande tributaries specified in the treaty. The agreement also set up a working group to explore other sources of water.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said at a news conference on April 11, the day after Trump’s social media post announcing a delivery stoppage, that she expected an agreement in the coming days “that will allow the treaty to be fulfilled.” She called the treaty “fair.”

Sheinbaum told reporters that there would be “an immediate delivery of a certain number of millions of cubic meters that can be provided according to the water availability in the Rio Grande.”

In response to a query about whether Mexico had made that delivery, the State Department confirmed that Mexico had committed to making an immediate transfer of water, but it did not confirm that the delivery had been made.

The State Department stated on April 28 that the two countries had committed to developing “a long-term plan to reliably meet treaty requirements while addressing outstanding water debts—including through additional monthly transfers and regular consultations on water deliveries that take into consideration the needs of Texas users.”

Sheinbaum has blamed her country’s increasingly delinquent water shipments on extended periods of drought that have affected the Rio Grande.

Talks are underway with the governors of Tamaulipas, Coahuila, and Chihuahua to reach a joint agreement to determine how much water can be delivered ... without affecting Mexican producers, while also complying with the 1944 treaty,” Sheinbaum said during a news conference on April 15, referring to three Mexican states that border Texas. The Rio Grande serves as the international boundary.

Historically, Mexican farmers have contested attempts to increase water deliveries to the United States for fear of losing their crops.

In September 2020—before an October delivery deadline—farmers in Mexico’s Chihuahua state, which borders New Mexico and Texas, were involved in heated protests over government attempts to deliver 378 cubic meters of water to the United States, claiming that their livelihoods were at stake amid severe drought conditions. One protester was killed in clashes with the Mexican National Guard.

Sculptures stand along the international boundary at Amistad Reservoir on the U.S.–Mexico border near Ciudad Acuña, Mexico, on Feb. 21, 2017. Guillermo Arias/AFP via Getty Images Downstream Dilemma

Maria-Elena Giner, then-commissioner of the IBWC’s U.S. division, told The Epoch Times on April 18 that the division is “in close contact with the administration regarding the need for Mexico to commit to predictable and reliable Rio Grande water deliveries.”

We have continued to request that Mexico make monthly deliveries and provide a specific plan outlining how they intend to make up their historic shortfall in the next five-year cycle,” Giner said.

“At the same time, we are doing everything we can to assist impacted south Texas stakeholders, including alerting growers and irrigation districts about available federal and local resources and sharing our historical data on Rio Grande hydrology.”

Giner, a Biden appointee, resigned on April 21. She will be succeeded by William “Chad” McIntosh, who previously served as acting deputy administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency under administrator Lee Zeldin.

The 1944 water agreement between the United States and Mexico was struck at a time when groundwater was abundant, and droughts weren’t as lengthy. Both nations agreed to share water from two rivers that help define the international border: the Colorado River and the Rio Grande.

Like the Rio Grande in Mexico, the Colorado River in the United States has faced extreme drought in recent years.

Since 2000, the Colorado River, which originates in the Rockies and joins Mexico at the California–Arizona border, has experienced a “historic, extended drought” that has taken a heavy toll on regional water supplies.

At the same time, population and agricultural growth in Colorado River Basin states have grown exponentially over the two decade period.

Currently, the Colorado River Basin provides water to an estimated 40 million residents in seven U.S. states and irrigates more than 5 million acres of farmland.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 21:45

Jet-Powered "Superbike For The Skies" Emerges Out Of Stealth Mode

Jet-Powered "Superbike For The Skies" Emerges Out Of Stealth Mode

A "superbike for the skies" has officially emerged from stealth mode, drawing striking parallels to the iconic speeder bikes from the early 1980s sci-fi classic Star Wars: Episode VI – Return of the Jedi.

Poland-based startup Volonaut unveiled a single-seater jet-powered hoverbike that clocks in speeds in excess of 124 mph. 

"The futuristic single occupant vehicle is a realization of a bold concept often portrayed in science-fiction movies - this is where the inspiration came from many years ago and with time became the obsession to its creator," the company wrote in an emailed response. 

Volonaut noted, "Thanks to Airbike's extremely compact size and no spinning propellers it can travel through most confined areas with ease."

The startup dripped a teaser video ahead of the release on Tuesday...  

Followed by the official launch video on Wednesday, titled "Meet the Airbike." 

What's better than electric spinning blades?  Volonaut demonstrates how jet propulsion will be the future. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 04/30/2025 - 21:20

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