So this is how it worked: instead of greening our manufacturing base, amping up our recycling system and competing on the basis of better production technology, we shipped our production to China, which is busy polluting themselves and spewing carbon dioxide. In return, the Chinese took the hundreds of billions from sales to the U.S. and reinvested the money here, helping to make our sprawl even spawlier and our military even more wasteful.

Greetings folks, I hope your holiday season is going well. In case you were wondering, there was no Manufacturing update last week, family and health related issues. This week will be kinda short, my apologies, but I wanted to cut some of the gloom and doom for the holiday season. We got stuff on solar energy, a new grant system for electric car innovation, milestones on wind, and something for the kids! But as always, we hit our first section...

The Numbers!

It is clear that we are in an economic environment that we have not seen in over half a century. Statistics that have been generated only since World War 2 cover a period of time which was marked almost exclusively by continuous inflation. The last deflationary recession was in 1949-50.

As a result, many measures that accurately forecast changes in the economy during an inflationary period (for example, a positive sloping yield curve) may not apply now. Thus, I have been looking for statistical measures or comparisons that have data back to 1929, and appear to have given accurate readings even during deflationary periods. In general, it appears that the Kasriel indicator of positive yield curve + M1 money supply consistently growing in an absolute sense, and also faster than inflation did accurately coincide with periods of growth even during the Great Depression. Additionally, M2 money supply growing faster than commercial bank loans also coincided with the onset of recovery even prior to WW2. I have also looked at the role of an increase in the rate of real residential investment compared with GDP as a harbinger of recovery.

Today I will look at a fourth indicator.

A few weeks ago I diaried that, while Housing is nowhere near bottoming, nevertheless there was substantial evidence that the decline may be shifting from the vertical, "guillotine" phase to the more bumpy "sandpaper" phase. I wrote:

In the case of the housing market crash, how would the change from "guillotine" to "sandpaper" look? In the past, Calculated Risk has reckoned that the inflection point between advancing and declining house prices was at about 7 months' supply. So I submit that first of all, we would see a decline in months' supply of houses for sale towards that mark, as sales started to outstrip new house starts and existing homes being offered for sale. In order to accomplish that, you would first need to see that new home building has declined to a level where sales exceed new starts. You would also want to see existing home sales increasing on a year-over-year basis. In other words, the volume of new home starts would transition from guillotine to sandpaper first, well before prices themselves would begin the transition.

And Guess what? All of those conditions have either started or appear to be on the cusp of starting.

Last week President Bush announced that you and I are loaning Chrysler $4 Billion. I have a simple question: exactly WHY are we bailing out a profitable, well-connected private company, namely, the company that owns Chrysler, Cerberus Capital Management?

Even when Cerberus Capital Management bought Chrysler in July 2007, it was noted that

The sale of Chrysler (DCX) to private equity giant Cerberus Capital Management hasn't gone through yet, but Standard & Poor's and Moody's Investors Service (MCO) have already rated the soon-to-be independent carmaker's debt as "junk," or below investment grade.

That's not all. Standard & Poor's ratings essentially say that Chrysler could be a recession away from bankruptcy.