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Who in the World would trust Standard and Poor's?

Standard and Poor's finally did it.  They downgraded the credit rating of the United States from AAA to AA+.  There are serious questions about the reliability of S&P.  The White House pointed out that there is a $2 trillion error in the calculations used for the downgrade.  Ths is of interest since the two other agencies failed to change the AAA status of the US. (See S&P downgrades U.S.)

Jack Tapper of ABC News reported late this afternoon:

"A third official says that S&P made a "serious mistake" in its analysis, "based on flawed math and assumptions," so the Obama administration is pushing back. But even though "S&P has acknowledged its numbers are wrong, it's unclear what they're going to do.," the official said.

"S&P's numbers were off by "roughly $2 trillion," the official said.

Fitch and Moody's reaffirmed the AAA US rating earlier in the week.

In addition to the question raised about a mathematical error, there are substantial reasons to doubt S&P for any credit rating, let alone the sovereign debt of the United States  This material is from an article on April 25, 2011.  It is highly relevant to the situation at hand.

Wall Street Realizes the Crazies are Running the Asylum

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money waterfall
Wall Street exits, stage right, from the United States economy. The Dow closed 513 points down today and is down over 1,200 points since July 21. Both the Nasdaq and the S&P. This is the worst one day drop since October 2008, otherwise known as the great financial Armageddon.

 

 

Only three of the 500 stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 index had gains. Oil fell by 6 percent. The yield on the two-year Treasury note hit a record low as investors sought out relatively stable investments.

All three major stock indexes are down 10 percent or more from their previous highs, a drop-off that is considered to be a market correction. A drop of 20 percent or more signifies the start of a bear market, an extended period of stock declines.

IMF Head Lagarde Under Investigation by French Court

 I reviewed the candidates for IMF head on May 23, "Old Europe" backs French finance minister Lagarde for IMF head. The traditional choice of a European to head IMF was challenged by candidates from Mexico and Asia. The United States ultimately tilted toward the French finance minister who is now in office.

The article noted that there was a controversial case pending in French court regarding Lagarde's actions as finance minister. She made a favorable ruling in a matter regarding a close friend and ally of French President Nicholas Sarkozy. It appeared that her actions resulted in an award viewed as excessive for the Sarkozy ally. The loser in that matter appealed to a French court. At the time, it was known that:

"A three judge panel of the Court of Justice for the Republic will recommend for or against further investigation by mid June. A yes on investigating Lagarde would end her chances for the IMF position.."Economic Populist, May 23

The decision was delayed and the US-European alliance pushed the nomination through. Today, the Guardian had this headline:

Debt Deal Delusions: Debt to Gross Domestic Product Ratio

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The compromise "is a positive step toward reducing the future path of the deficit and the debt levels,” Steven Hess, senior credit officer at Moody’s in New York, said in a telephone interview yesterday. “We do think more needs to be done to ensure a reduction in the debt to GDP ratio, for example, going forward." Bloomberg, Aug 2 (Image: Okko Pyykko)

How many times have you read or heard about the magic numbers concerning the ratio of national debt to gross domestic product (GDP)? This was trotted out by both sides of the debt ceiling debate as a fact: if the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 90%, the results will be dire. Therefore, our current situation calls for a crisis reaction and extreme measures to get below the magic number.

Uncle Sam Gets a Visitor

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Originally published on The Agonist

Hey, John! John Bull! How you doing? It’s been a while – I don’t get many visitors these days you know. You’re looking great! I gotta say – I loved that wedding. Loved it! I saw all of it from the very beginning to that balcony scene at the end. I saw it live too – at 3:00 a.m. – right here in the hospital room. I was up anyway; I don’t sleep too well these days. I have to say, you guys really do that pageantry stuff better than anybody. The Pope could take some lessons from you, and those guys at the Vatican have a few millennia of practice at that sort of thing. And that Kate and William! What a lovely couple. Do you know they came to visit me right after the honeymoon? Very thoughtful, they were.

Hey, you wouldn’t mind putting on one of those white face masks, would you? These hospitals are just full of germs and you shouldn’t take any chances.

You heard about my illness, didn’t you? Something to do with my debt ceiling. My blood count was too high – reaching the limit – I couldn’t follow it all. They had all these specialists in Washington running around shouting at each other. It was all over the television channels. A real embarrassment, I tell you! Half of them were saying I needed even more blood transfusions, and the other half were saying maybe I should slow down a bit or even reduce my intake. I’m all in favor of that; I’d like to get back to where I was ten years ago, when I wasn’t stuck in a hospital bed.

A Sugar-Coated Satan Sandwich

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Originally published on The Agonist

Was it just a week ago that President Obama was hanging tough, insisting he would never accept a debt ceiling package that excluded tax increases? In rejecting a six month extension of the debt ceiling, Obama said last week:

But there’s an even greater danger to this approach. Based on what we’ve seen these past few weeks, we know what to expect six months from now. The House of Representatives will once again refuse to prevent default unless the rest of us accept their cuts-only approach. Again, they will refuse to ask the wealthiest Americans to give up their tax cuts or deductions. Again, they will demand harsh cuts to programs like Medicare. And once again, the economy will be held captive unless they get their way.

Here is what Speaker of the House John Boehner said today about the debt ceiling package that has now been agreed to by the House and Senate leadership, along with President Obama:

Now listen, this isn’t the greatest deal in the world," he said, according to excerpts of the call provided to press by Boehner's office. "But it shows how much we’ve changed the terms of the debate in this town."
Boehner painted the deal as victory for the Republican party because it did not include revenues, which Democrats have long called for as part of a final deal.
"There is nothing in this framework that violates our principles," he said. "It’s all spending cuts. The White House bid to raise taxes has been shut down." – source HuffPost

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