You probably heard that the "headline" (i.e., including food and energy) CPI number today was +.03. You may have scratched your head, wondering what planet these guys are on.
Well, they were on the "seasonally adjusted" planet. Generally speaking, inflation runs hotter in the first part of the year, and cools down dramatically towards the end of the year.
So, for the best year over year comparisons, turn to the non-seasonally adjusted CPI number. And that number today was +.09. Much closer to our actual experience, no?
And yet, as the below table (from the Bureau of Labor Statistics) shows, inflation so far this year is running on the non-seasonally adjusted basis, at exactly the same clip as last year: +1.7 for the first quarter. Here's the table:
Jan 07 0.3
0.5
0.9
0.6
0.6
0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.3
0.2
0.6
-0.1
Jan 08 0.5
0.3
0.9
The year over year numbers for the last 6 months including today look like this:
Oct 07 3.5
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