New Deal democrat's blog

Is the inflation rate peaking?

With stories of food riots in third world countries and $4 a gallon gasoline by this summer, inflation certainly seems to be rampaging. Whether this continues or not is not just of concern to market watchers. Aside from the incredible pain food inflation in particular puts on the poor worldwide, domestically US workers are never going to get raises to match inflation rates much in excess of 3%. So, the more necessities like food and gasoline go up in price, the less Americans have to spend on other things, like mortgage payments, health care premiums, or educating their children, let alone retirement savings. In short, the worse inflation stays, the more severe our recession will be.
I addressed this issue previously in a post entitled Why Inflation isn't the problem in which I said:

A note on today's CPI

You probably heard that the "headline" (i.e., including food and energy) CPI number today was +.03. You may have scratched your head, wondering what planet these guys are on.
Well, they were on the "seasonally adjusted" planet. Generally speaking, inflation runs hotter in the first part of the year, and cools down dramatically towards the end of the year.

So, for the best year over year comparisons, turn to the non-seasonally adjusted CPI number. And that number today was +.09. Much closer to our actual experience, no?

And yet, as the below table (from the Bureau of Labor Statistics) shows, inflation so far this year is running on the non-seasonally adjusted basis, at exactly the same clip as last year: +1.7 for the first quarter. Here's the table:

Jan 07 0.3
0.5
0.9
0.6
0.6
0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.3
0.2
0.6
-0.1
Jan 08 0.5
0.3
0.9

The year over year numbers for the last 6 months including today look like this:

Oct 07 3.5

Senate dems sell us out -- again

(sigh) Why did we bother working so hard to elect allegedly progressive Senators? I hate these b******s. They've srewed us yet again.

A few weeks ago I wrote a blog praising the Senate Bankruptcy reform act of 2008, caling it one of the few pieces of housing related legislation that had some merit.

Most importantly, it would have restored to Bankruptcy judges the power they had before 2005 to force down the amount of a debtor's mortgage. Well, the Senate republicans did one of their faux filibusters and the bill failed.
So now, our erstwhile progressive democratic senators have caucused with the Republicans and what do we get? A complete cave-in as to debtors, and huge dollops of gifties for homebuilders. In other words, "our" Senators are reaching into our tax pockets and have actually succeeded in making matters worse.

From the Washington Post story:

Quantum economics - UPDATED

One of the speculations I have made from time to time is that the very assumptions underlying neoclassical economic theory are so flawed in comparison with reality that the theory, while elegant, and able to generate wonderfully pretty mathematical graphs, is deeply flawed.

One such problem is that neoclassical economic theory made use of the mathematics of 19th century Newtonian physics. And just as quantum theory and the theory of relativity gave rise to startlingly different results, if one applies 20th century physics to economic theory, the entire notion of equilibrium breaks down, and one sees radically different predicted results.

The Economic Slowdown is Global

For those who claim that China, India, et al. will bail out the US slowdown by picking up the slack, I bring you this chart of China's Shanghai A shares:

The index reached a high of 6430 back in October 2007. This morning it finished at ~3590. That's a 45% decline in 5 months! If it reminds you of the Nasdaq in 2000, it should. This is the chart of a bubble popping. Large numbers of Chinese "investors" opened brokerage accounts in the last year. Just how many? This is from the February 19 edition of USA Today:

The Bond Market fears Deflation

This may seem like a strange title for an article in a world where gold is over $1000 an ounce and oil is at $110 a barrel, causing people like my buddy bonddad to write articles entltled, "What Inflation?", and this is somewhat a response to his latest post,
Why Isn't the Bond Market Selling Off From Inflation Fears?.

The very best analysis of the issues in our new economic world was recently set forth, imho, by Prof. Bred DeLong, who described 3 types of crises:

Laissez-faire ideologues hound CEO of GE

From the blog gristmill:
http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/3/13/0145/56590

"I came because I was invited," says the man on stage heatedly, squaring off his shoulders to the packed crowd. "I don't need to be lectured by anybody in this room about how to compete!"

From another speaker it might sound defensive, but in this case it is the CEO of GE, the second largest company in the world. Jeff Immelt knows whereof he speaks.

Immelt's outburst came toward the end of a Q&A session that saw him repeatedly assailed by ideological conservatives angry over his involvement in the U.S. Climate Action Partnership, a coalition of large businesses lobbying for a carbon cap-and-trade system, and his leadership role in pushing the business world to embrace clean energy and sustainability.
....

A brief stock market aside

This may be a strange title for a "populist" blog, but the behavior of the stock market is a leading indicator for the economy, so there is some value in calling attention to it when it signals something to us. Not to mention that progressives like to make money too.
I'm really impressed with the behavior of the stock market these last couple of days. We've had a slew of bad news, mainly worse than expected, and instead of collapsing, the market has held its own both days, finishing, less than 1% lower as of Tuesday's close.
Not only that, but both days have seen strong rallies in the last hour. That's the sign of a market that wants to go higher, i.e., a bull market.
I know, I just got done posting graphs for a 120 year period and said I distrust short term charts. But when the market behaves in an unexpected way -- going down on good news or up on bad news -- I pay attention. This market wants to go up, even on bad news.

Bernanke signs on to voluntary mortgage cramdowns

This will be a quick note. I will probably post more extensively tomorrow.
The Housing Crisis Fairy ain't coming. Ten years of housing were built in the 5 years of 2001-2005, and the only way the market will be restored to a reasonable equilibrium is by falling house prices. Those who bought houses in 2004-7 at very least are going to have to acknowledge that the value of their house is declining. I.e., there will be pain.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has signed on to the idea of voluntary mortgage cramdowns, similar to those proposed by the Office of Thrift Supervision last week. Here's a quick summary, per CNN:

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