global financial crisis

Could there be a China crisis? Has the China's economy really survived the global financial crisis?

Originally published by QFINANCE

By political commentator Ian Fraser

Last year very few commentators saw a doomsday scanario developing for the Middle Kingdom. These few included some lonely hedge fund managers such as Eclectica's Hugh Hendry and Kynikos's Jim Chanos. The country’s property bubble, troublesome banking sector and credit tide caused the most concern.

The China-bashers were given a pause for thought when second quarter data showed that China's economy grew at 9.5% in the second quarter -- meaning its economic engine has shown unexpected consistency over the past 12 months. However, wrapped up in the figures were warning signs, including that consumer price inflation reached 6.4% for the year to June. And, as The Economist pointed out, despite a state-sponsored slowdown on bank lending, overall credit availability has actually increased thanks to increased use of "social financing", including corporate bonds and some loans repackaged by “trust” companies. The Economist said:

"China seems to be getting less bang for its financial buck. In 2007, Fitch reckons, it took 1.28 yuan of extra financing to produce an additional yuan of GDP. Now it takes 2.38. China’s growth may be remarkably even. But its financial system is having to pump harder to maintain the pace."

It's fair to say scepticisim about China, its post-crisis success and the nature of its economic miracle has been growing in recent weeks.

We are running out of time

There is a limited window of opportunity, when an economic crisis evolves from a manageable event to an out-of-control monster. The current economic crisis is getting rather long in the tooth, and yet the global political and economic leaders still show no ability to fully grasp the depth and complexity of the situation.

As of this moment there are two evolving problems that are only a few months away from being out of anyone's control. One of the problems is domestic, the other lies on the other side of the Atlantic. Both of them have the potential for catastrophic consequences.

The Barrage and Not Enough Time to Know What it Means

The Barrage of news is pouring in and I am trying to get my business taxes done before the deadline.

So forgive me if this post is a little weak.

It's being reported now we will have the worse recession in 25 years, if we are lucky.

''It's certainly going to be the worst since the 1980s,'' says Bradford DeLong, an economics professor at the University of California at Berkeley who worked at the U.S. Treasury Department from 1993 to 1995. ``The hope is that it won't become the worst unemployment business cycle since the Great Depression

There goes the Royal Bank of Scotland