sovereign default

European Sovereign Debt Crisis - How Did This Happen?

piigsWith Spain now getting a bail out all to pump up their insolvent banks, one might wonder how did we get here in the first place?

We actually are on the precipice, with a key critical Geek vote on whether or not they will default on their international bail out. Sitting on the edge of a cliff, a review of the European sovereign debt crisis and how we got here is at hand.

What the hell happened is complicated. Greece is not the same as Ireland, nor is Spain the same as Greece. Ireland's sovereign debt crisis was the direct result of their financial crisis. Greece, on the other hand, had long standing structural problems with their economy. Nor are their economies the same although treating them as such originally was part of the problem.

The St. Louis Federal Reserve Research Director Christopher Waller gave a presentation on the the European Debt Crisis. The entire May 8th, 2012 lecture is below. The focus is on debt to GDP ratios, the European Union and interest rates for sovereign bonds. We learn about the European Union's major financial structural problems versus how exactly the debt happened. There are plenty of specifics and this lecture is concise, accurate in it's scope. If you don't understand European Sovereign Debt fundamentals, watch this lecture in full and you will.

Greece Defaulted After All

greece parthenonMoody's has proclaimed Greece defaulted.

Moody's Investors Service says that it considers Greece (C/no outlook) to have defaulted per Moody's default definitions further to the conclusion of an exchange of EUR177 billion of Greece's debt that is governed by Greek law for bonds issued by the Greek government, GDP-linked securities, European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) notes. Foreign-law bonds are eligible for the same offer, and Moody's expects a similar debt exchange to proceed with these bondholders, as well as the holders of state-owned enterprise debt that has been guaranteed by the state, in the coming weeks. The respective securities will enter our default statistics at the tender expiration date, which is was Thursday 8 March for the Greek law bonds and is currently expected to be 23 March for foreign law bonds. Greece's government bond rating remains unchanged at C, the lowest rating on Moody's rating scale.

Moody's understands that 85.8% of debtholders holding Greek-law bonds issued by the sovereign have agreed to the exchange, with the vast majority of remaining bondholders likely to be drawn in following the exercise of Collective Action Clauses that will be inserted pursuant to a recent Act by the Greek parliament. The terms of the exchange entail a discount -- a loss to creditors -- of at least 70% on the net present value of existing debt.

Greece on the Edge

greece ruinsGreece is on the edge. Part of their bail out, the voluntary losses Greek bond holders were supposed to accept, is falling short.

Private holders of €206bn in Greek bonds have until Thursday evening to decide whether to take part in a swap where they would trade bonds for a package of bonds and cash that would knock about €100bn off Athens’ debts.

Greece must get 75 per cent of holders to participate to avoid forcing the deal on holdouts through so-called “collective action clauses” which were inserted retroactively into Greek bonds by the government last week. If less than 66 per cent participate, even the CACs would become invalid, scuppering the entire deal.

The ECB is already saying voluntary participation will be too low and now there is talk of forcing the holders of Greek debt to take their haircut:

Greece expects bondholders to accept a one-time offer to write off about 100 billion euros ($140 billion) of Greek debt and is ready to force them to participate if necessary, Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said.

Greece on the Verge of Default

greek dominoesThe rumors are swirling that a Greek Default is imminent:

Despite strong denials that the country is heading for a default, rumours have grown that the end game is approaching. Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister, has insisted that a sixth, €8bn (£6.8bn) instalment of aid will not be released unless Greece enacts corrective measures to kickstart its economy and improve competitiveness. Experts from Washington and Brussels will fly into Athens this week to assess whether Greece is sticking to its programme of drastic spending cuts and tax rises, amid fears that its creditors could be ready to pull the plug.

Literally there are talks about seizing Greek assets, by force.

Germany’s EU commissioner Günther Oettinger said Europe should send blue helmets to take control of Greek tax collection and liquidate state assets.

Greece, assuming in response, announced a new property tax, collected through electricity bills:

The tax is €4 per square meter (about $0.50 per sq. feet). The government is projecting this levy will make up for the revenue shortfall due to the sharper than expected contraction in the Greek economy.

If you declare bankruptcy, will everything be OK in a few days, weeks?

The crazies in the United States House of Representatives would have you believe it were so.  They say fix that budget before we'll raise the debt ceiling.  If we don't get our fix, they announce, there's no deal.  We'll just default until things get straightened out. (Image: George Romero)

Derivatives, derivatives, derivatives!

Over and over again, we discover, upon some obscure audit or forensic accounting report being published, derivatives were the real culprit behind some bank/credit union/country failing.

Now we have Greece considering suing U.S. banks over credit default swaps on their sovereign debt and other derivatives.

Greece is considering taking legal action against U.S. investment banks that might have contributed to the country’s debt crisis, Prime Minister George Papandreou said.

“I wouldn’t rule out that this may be a recourse,” Papandreou said.

While this interview is making headlines buzz, to read the details of why Greece would consider suing U.S. banks click here and here

What a surprise, having a vehicle that pays out hansomely if a nation defaults on their debt might create some shady dealings. Bloomberg:

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said May 6 that he was concerned about speculation in bond markets using credit default swaps. “By first buying the CDS and then trying to affect market sentiment by going short on the underlying bond, investors can make large profits,” he said.

Europe Does a TARP Redux of almost $1 trillion dollars

Europe is putting up a $952 billion loan package.

European policy makers unveiled an unprecedented loan package worth almost $1 trillion and a program of bond purchases as they spearheaded a global drive to stop a sovereign-debt crisis that threatened to shatter confidence in the euro.

Jolted into action by last week’s slide in the currency and soaring bond yields in Portugal and Spain, the 16 euro nations agreed to offer financial assistance worth as much as 750 billion euros ($962 billion) to countries under attack from speculators. The European Central Bank will counter “severe tensions” in “certain” markets by purchasing government and private debt.

So, instead of bailing out banks, this sounds similar to TARP except it is to bail out European countries.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is opening up currency swaps to loan to foreign central banks. From their press release:

Press Release
Federal Reserve Press Release

Release Date: May 9, 2010
For release at 9:15 p.m. EDT

Could Dubai be just the first?

By now most people are aware of how Dubai got itself in over its head. What exactly is the perfect metaphor for Dubai's excesses? The palm-tree shaped islands? The underwater hotel? The indoor ski resort? It all had the feel of Disneyland meeting the dot-com mania.
In the end it was all about borrowed money. Lots of it. In that context Dubai is not alone.

Dubai's default has the world's investors asking the question: Who's next?

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