Our economy shrunk at a 0.9% rate in the 2nd quarter, a second consecutive contraction, as greater personal consumption of services and an increase in exports were more than offset by lower personal consumption of goods, a decrease in fixed investment and weaker investment in inventories, which subtracted more than 2 percent from GDP growth....
The Second Estimate of our 4th Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicated that our real output of goods and services grew at a 7.0% rate in the quarter, revised from the 6.9% growth rate reported in the advance estimate last month, as slower growth of personal consumption of services and of exports than was previously estimated was more than offset by greater growth of personal consumption of goods, fixed investment, and a smaller contraction of government....in current dollar
To estimate the impact of the change in PCE on the change in GDP, we have to compare July's real PCE to the real PCE of the 3 months of the second quarter. When we compare July's inflation adjusted PCE of 12,778.2 billion to the 2nd quarter’s real PCE of 11,819.6 billion, we find that July’s real PCE has grown at a 36.605% annual rate from the 2nd quarter.
The 5 year annual growth rate of personal consumption was revised down from 2.8% to 2.7%, the 5 year annual growth rate of private investment was revised up from 2.2% to 2.5%, the annual growth rate of exports was revised from 1.1% to 1.3%, the annual growth rate of imports was revised from 2.6% to 2.5%, and the growth of government investment and consumption was revised to a 1.9% rate from the 1.8% rate that had been indicated by GDP reports prior to this revision...
The Durable Goods advance report shows the impact Covad-19 is starting to have on the economy. New orders dropped by -14.4% as transportation orders plunged 41% in a month. Shipments also were negative with a -4.5% drop. The airline industry is obviously decimated as the nondefense new orders for aircraft and parts sank by a whopping -295.7%!
The Third Estimate of our 3rd Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicated that our real output of goods and services increased at a 3.4% annual rate in the quarter, revised from the 3.5% growth rate reported in the second estimate last month, as growth in personal consumption, fixed investment, and exports were revised lower, even as the change in our inventories was a greater addition to GDP than in the 2nd estimate.
The Advance Estimate of 2nd Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis released on Friday included changes in definitions, in classifications, and in the presentation of the components of GDP, as well as an annual and a comprehensive (or benchmark) revision of the national income and product accounts going back to 1929, ie, from the beginning of that measure of our economic history.
The Advance Estimate of 2nd Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis released on Friday included an annual revision to the past 3 years of GDP releases, revising previously published data from the first quarter of 2014 through the first quarter of 2017, which on net indicated that US economic growth over the period from 2014 to 2016 was at a 2.3% annual rate, revised from the 2.2% composite annual growth previously published for that period
The first quarter GDP initial estimate is a pathetically weak 0.7%. While the usual suspects, changes in private inventories, imports and government spending all contracted, the real drama is in the very weak consumer spending growth. Consumer spending is most of GDP and only gained a paltry 0.3% for Q1.
The GDP initial estimate reports a weak 1.9% economic growth for the 4th quarter. Imports really hammered GDP, just in time to validate now President Trump. Consumer spending was lower while changes in private inventories added a full percentage point to Q4 GDP. Generally speaking this report shows just how much imports can slow economic growth. U.S. Exports curtailed and as a result, -1.7 percentage points of GDP were lost in Q4.
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