The U.S. November 2014 monthly trade deficit declined -7.7% from last month and now stands at -$39 billion. America still runs a surplus in services, now at $19.3 billion, but the goods deficit is still massive and this month was -$58.3 billion. This month's trade deficit reduction is due to less crude oil imports and lower oil prices.
The U.S. November 2013 monthly trade deficit plunged -12.9% from last month due to a massive drop in oil imports. While the press headlines blare November's $34.25 billion trade deficit is at a four year low, what they are not reporting is just last June the deficit also dropped suddenly and very close to this figure.
The U.S. September 2013 monthly trade deficit jumped from last month with a 8.0% increase and now stands at -$41,778 billion. The jump in the trade deficit should lower Q3 GDP upon the next revision. We estimate the September trade deficit will lower Q3 GDP by 0.3 percentage points.
The U.S. August 2013 monthly trade deficit barely budged from last month, a 0.4% increase and now stands at -$38,803 billion. America still runs a surplus in services, now at $19.417 billion, but the goods deficit is still massive and this month was -$58.220 billion.
The U.S. July 2013 monthly trade deficit increased 13.3% to $39.147 billion and as expected. Overall exports decreased -0.6% while imports increased by 1.6%. The real news is the monthly China trade deficit just hit a new all time high of $30.1 billion.
The U.S. June 2013 monthly trade deficit cliff dove -22.4% from last month to $34.2 billion. This is the smallest trade deficit since October 2009 when the world was plunged into a global recession. A combination of a dramatic drop in oil imports along with solid U.S. exports in fuel oil, capital goods and jewelry was the reason for the deficit decline. Q2 GDP should be revised upward past 2.0% as shown below.
The U.S. March 2013 monthly trade deficit decreased 11% to $38.8 billion. U.S. exports decreased $1.7 billion or -0.9%. Imports declined by $6.5 billion, a -2.8% decrease. Expect an upward revision on the trade component to Q1 GDP, assuming prices were stable.
The U.S. January 2013 monthly trade deficit increased 16.2% to $44.45 billion after December's -20.9% trade deficit implosion. This month is all about oil imports and we suspect Hurricane Sandy potentially affected imports in December and why the wild swings. December had the lowest petroleum related imports since August 2009.
The U.S. December 2012 monthly trade deficit imploded by -20.7% to $38.54 billion. This is the lowest monthly trade deficit since January 2010 when global trade was still affected by the recession. We estimate Q4 GDP will be revised significantly upward as a result.
The U.S. November 2012 monthly trade deficit increased by 15.85%. This is an increase of $6.667 billion to give a monthly trade deficit of $48.731 billion. November's U.S. exports increased $1.744 billion or 0.96%. Imports soared by $8.410 billion which is a 3.8% increase from last month. The three month moving average gives a trade deficit of $43.691 billion and a increase of $2.05 billion.
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