weekly initial unemployment claims

Initial weekly unemployment claims for July 31, 2010

Submitted by on

The financial headline buzz du jour is all about initial weekly unemployment claims, which increased by 19,000. Why the U.S. jobs crisis is suddenly alarming news, when we and many other economic blogs have been sounding the alarm for years, is anybody's guess. Last week we showed, initial unemployment claims are simply too high and have stayed that way for months. Another alarming sign is the Challenger & Gray Job Cut report. Announced layoffs rose 6% from last month, the 3rd month in a row announced layoffs increased.

So far this year, the government and non-profit sector has announced 105,969 job cuts, nearly triple the next largest job-cutting sector: the pharmaceutical industry, which has announced 37,010 job cuts, 30 percent fewer than at this point last year.

Initial weekly unemployment claims for July 24, 2010

Submitted by on

Initial weekly unemployment claims is a volatile number, subject to revisions. Regardless the below graph shows a disturbing trend in weekly initial unemployment claims, they simply are not going down to pre-recession levels. The 4-week average on initial unemployment claims is as high as April 2010.

 

 

About that weekly initial unemployment claims report

Submitted by on

One might see blazing headlines that initial weekly unemployment claims for March 25, 2010 dropped 14,000 to 442,000. But note the below, contained in the press release:

This week's release reflects the annual revision to the weekly unemployment claims seasonal adjustment factors. The historical factors from 2005 forward have been revised.

From 2005 they revised the data? What kind of yearly seasonal adjustment is that?

Then from MarketWatch we have (looks like someone got on the phone?)

Latest figures reflect annual revisions to the data that put claims 10,000 lower than they would have been under the old methodology, a Labor official said.

Without the annual revision, claims would have totaled about 453,000

Weekly Initial Claims for January 23, 2010 down 8,000

Submitted by on

Initial weekly unemployment claims, ending January 23rd are out.

In the week ending Jan. 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 470,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 478,000. The 4-week moving average was 456,250, an increase of 9,500 from the previous week's revised average of 446,750.

As usual last week's number of 482,000 was revised, but this time downward by 4,000.

Look at these graphs. First is just this recession period.

Why it's super nuts to watch weekly initial unemployment claims

Submitted by on

Last week we declared watching the initial weekly unemployment claims numbers was just nuts. This week we've upped it to super nuts. Why?

Because the numbers are then revised after the press release and there is so much noise in these statistics one cannot jump for joy (or cry in your beer depending) on these reports weekly press statements.

Take this week for example.

In the week ending Sept. 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 550,000, a decrease of 26,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 576,000. The 4-week moving average was 570,000, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week's revised average of 572,750.

Why it's nuts to watch the weekly initial unemployment claims - Initial Claims for Aug. 29

Submitted by on

For the week of August 29, the new release is here.

In the week ending Aug. 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 570,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 574,000. The 4-week moving average was 571,250, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised average of 567,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.7 percent for the week ending Aug. 22, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 4.6 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Aug. 22 was 6,234,000, an increase of 92,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 6,142,000. The 4-week moving average was 6,216,750, a decrease of 27,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 6,244,000.

Pages