I'm not saying charts and graphs are normally trivial, just in relation to that dailykos article. And I believe if you read everything Blinder has written, going back to his support for NAFTA, you'll find I'm in the right.
Firstly, putting together unemployment, income and connecting it to offshore outsourcing, trade is actually very difficult and part of the reason are the issues, and reference papers I point to in my post, but also there is no direct data. Various congress reps. have tried to get data on this and corporate lobbyists fight it every step of the way.
So, one needs to do an indirect analysis and extract, which almost no one does.
For example, in unemployment statistics, they refuse to capture citizenship status or underemployment statistics. Then there not even a survey to track on the number of jobs offshored or even track how many U.S. corporations created jobs in other countries, plants, R&D facilites, etc. in other countries...instead of the United States.
Trying to obtain accurate data on this means one has to turn into their own data collector and in a national with thousands of companies, millions of workers, that is non-trivial, esp. trying to track all of the offshored investment, jobs around the globe.
Blinder isn' a pseudo economist, he actually wrote a very good paper on the potential for offshoring. I think it can be argued that economists are also political and if you go against the "status quo" you might be kicked out of the club.
So, the claim there is "nothing we can do" is complete BS and assuredly there are many of us who know of specific policy adjustments which would "do something".
But to say that detailed economic analysis, yes with charts and graphs is trivial is really out of line. Remember, EP is supposed to be reality based, but more importantly is an "all things econ" site, and these analysis give a lot of answers.
Given all of the fundamental problems in the economy I am amazed that gold is still well below $1,000, as explained here http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116&sid=aA3eLD2EZ5CM
I think that dailykos article is rather trivial and belabors the obvious - which is why a political economist like Krugman is slow on the uptake (and whose remarks are remarkably similar to another political economist, back in the '90s, named Robert Reich).
Sometimes it is so simple and fundamental that resorting to equations and graphs is almost nonsensical: 73% of the uppermost American corporations and American-based multinationals don't pay federal taxes (due to "profit laundering" via offshore finance centers - primarily owned by the banksters), while the tax base made up of American workers is rapidly shrinking due to excessive jobs offshoring and foreign jobs creation (multinationals creating jobs offshore as opposed to creating jobs locally with that federal stimulus money); ergo, the multiplier and cascading loss effect goes into overdrive with resultant loss of tax revenues, statewide, countywide and citywide.
As the American economy has been consumer-driven since the 1920s, dramatic devastation must be the order of the day!
Alan Blinder, one of those pseudo-economists (at Princeton, I believe) who has always been part of the problem and not any part of the solution, not too long ago stated that his research (glaringly obvious to the rest of us) indicated massive jobs offshoring by 2010-2012 (I think that's a rather late estimate), with horrendous economic consequences to the American worker.
Of course, wanting to keep his position at Princeton, Blinder claimed there is nothing we can do about this as it's all about globalization!
Friday the GDP numbers will be released. Now I am seeing the build up to claim the Stimulus worked, but that's if GDP comes in a a -1.5% but be prepared for them to claim it still worked if it's lower.
Most amusing is I'm seeing "22k jobs created" and then claims of 750k jobs saved...
well, I'm sorry but this is all "thumb in the air" spin trying to claim that there is a hard fast correlation between GDP vs. actual jobs....which obviously has broken this recession.
More assuredly but I thought I'd give a heads up because various groups are already releasing their spin pregame.
$2 trillion for CRE and another several trillion for residential real estate soon we will be talking real money.
Seriously, I know that treasury and fed would like banks to earn their way out of this mess. But the only way that happens is if they take more risks. That means nothing changes and nothing is learned.
How can we seriously talk about a "recovery" with toxic assets still on the books?
We know you are reading EP and we're glad you're here!
But consider coming out the shadows, creating an account and joining in the discussion and critique. We learn from you as much as you're learning from us and I think all of us can use all the help we can get!
Honestly I thought manfrommiddletown might be making this a little overblown, simply because the CRE is smaller than residential, but $2.2 trillion tells a different tale.
Ever feel like Cassandra? I think we should rename the site.
Right now it seems policy makers are more busy trying to get the public to accept the rape of the middle class instead of really doing something about it.
I mean in all seriousness, if anyone who goes to D.C. where their focus is on manufacturing, trade, jobs....
if they get a seat at the table....is that the kiddie table in the kitchen?
It's almost like segregation in terms of the enormous blow off on the entire manufacturing (production) economy, including the corporations who contribute.
(If you want to call putting some green kid in charge of GM who supposedly is going to offshore outsource to China attention).
what this weak and slow growth means. This means long and high structural unemployment. This means that people may be unemployed a lot longer than their unemployment compensation. This means that any emergency savings will be exhausted. This means more people will be tapping into retirement savings just to survive. This means that if people are lucky to get a job it will be for much less money.
This is the "New Normal". Unfortunately, we are not ready for it.
and what I find even more frightening is the public focus, the public demand for those policy changes, for those deep structural changes is flying off of the radar screen.
and they are right there, for any analysis to view, the growing income inequality, the fact very few are prepared for retirement (and they will not, absolutely will not acknowledge that retirement was raided and this is the real reason why, plus getting fired/laid off all of the time, careers cut short may have something to do with the ability to save)...
I mean we even have Stimulus jobs being offshore outsourced. Yet we still cannot get the focus on this and even worse, the entire blogosphere has become bogged down in calling a recession bottom or the "green shoots/yellow weeds" argument?
We see many new 3PL's and Freight Forwarders looking for better deals and since Feb 09, we have had a large increase of 3PL's get on board our system and rate engine.
More companies and 3PL's are rate shopping and if this economy gets any worse, you will start to see more carriers closing their doors.
You must just laugh out loud because all the headlines are ablaze with "breaking news" that a compromise was reached with "blue dog" Dems on health care...
but of course, guess what, none of the details or specifics will be released.
Are you noticing a pattern where there is a "debate" going on where no one has the actual facts?
It's astounding one can have "news" and "debate" without any specifics.
Then I can't name a single company where the executives shouldn't be voted out. But it won't happen- because in many cases, the executives ARE the majority shareholders, voting themselves largess from the corporate treasury.
-------------------------------------
Maximum jobs, not maximum profits.
A. You're oblivious to the plight of many Americans
B. Cannot read the unemployment statistics or the foreclosure rates
C. Houses are being bought by speculators, very similar to the flippers in 2000-2008, some of whom went bust like the last to pull the Russian Roulette gun.
D. Trying to claim you will live in multiple houses is most interesting. Sure thing.
People like myself are buying houses, as a matter of fact in my close group of friends at least 6 have bought a house/closing on a house in the last 4 months.
In our area, houses are selling at about a 40% discount off the top. Your area, I don't know and can't speak for.
We: are mid-20s, have useful college degrees and have well paying jobs. We've been saving up for this for the last 1-2 years, we have the down payment and excellent credit.
What we're buying: newer built, mid to low range priced houses and condos.
But OMG the world is ending?: no, things will be fine.
You're just speculators: We're not trying to make it rich by selling these houses in a year or two. No, we plan to live here. Interest rates are great, hell I got 4.75% in Feb., and I'm fairly happy with that. My mortgage+taxes is about what rent on my place would cost .
But you'll lose your job, DOOOOM?: no, things seem to be just fine. I've known 3 people lose their jobs as software developers in the last 4 months, all found new jobs within a month and at better pay. Besides, we got houses that are easy to afford, and we have emergency funds to last for months.
PS: There are many like us, try and shop around, you'll hear this all over the place.
you can see my comments on the beyond belief insanity and in the legislative process, they can take on unread managers amendments which can change an entire bill at the end...plus, conferees, which rectify the differences between house and Senate bills after they pass, literally just half a dozen or less reps./Sen. can also completely change a bill after it has passed both houses.
Those spread sheets remind me of "comprehensive" immigration reform, which were loaded to the hilt with corporate lobbyists' agendas.
So, navigating through the noise and finding out the absolute facts of a bill is one Sherlock Holmes nightmare.
Another favorite are amendments which they will not even release in the Congressional record in detail...anywhere.
and why NDD did not post it here is truly beyond me.
That said, while NDD points to there is a problem, and points to the trade deficit as well as uses some of the same data I saw from the Atlanta Fed, I'm writing about the discoveries themselves, from Academia, as well as written up very nicely by the main economist at Business week, as to what specifically is going on to skew the GDP and productivity statistics.
Different angles, same topic....i.e. finding proof as to why the U.S. is hemorrhaging jobs, which so many others try to repress and ignore.
Some politicians, however, remain uncowed. Oregon Democrat Ron Wyden has proposed something he calls the Free Choice Act: It would open the exchanges to all Americans and all businesses. It would also let those of us with employer-based insurance take the money our employers are paying for our insurance and use it on the exchange instead. This idea wouldn't take away what anyone has. But it would allow those of us who don't like what we have to change it. More so than any other idea in the health-care debate, it offers a concrete way that reform could benefit the insured. It gives them a way out of a health-care system that is eating through their wages and limiting their choices.
Ezra Klein seems to be backing away from the "public insurance option".
this isnt so big news or something
i dont wanna be rude or something, but he is not the only one, just like people who were managers in the employer companies not are begging for food.
I'm not saying charts and graphs are normally trivial, just in relation to that dailykos article. And I believe if you read everything Blinder has written, going back to his support for NAFTA, you'll find I'm in the right.
Firstly, putting together unemployment, income and connecting it to offshore outsourcing, trade is actually very difficult and part of the reason are the issues, and reference papers I point to in my post, but also there is no direct data. Various congress reps. have tried to get data on this and corporate lobbyists fight it every step of the way.
So, one needs to do an indirect analysis and extract, which almost no one does.
For example, in unemployment statistics, they refuse to capture citizenship status or underemployment statistics. Then there not even a survey to track on the number of jobs offshored or even track how many U.S. corporations created jobs in other countries, plants, R&D facilites, etc. in other countries...instead of the United States.
Trying to obtain accurate data on this means one has to turn into their own data collector and in a national with thousands of companies, millions of workers, that is non-trivial, esp. trying to track all of the offshored investment, jobs around the globe.
Blinder isn' a pseudo economist, he actually wrote a very good paper on the potential for offshoring. I think it can be argued that economists are also political and if you go against the "status quo" you might be kicked out of the club.
So, the claim there is "nothing we can do" is complete BS and assuredly there are many of us who know of specific policy adjustments which would "do something".
But to say that detailed economic analysis, yes with charts and graphs is trivial is really out of line. Remember, EP is supposed to be reality based, but more importantly is an "all things econ" site, and these analysis give a lot of answers.
Given all of the fundamental problems in the economy I am amazed that gold is still well below $1,000, as explained here http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116&sid=aA3eLD2EZ5CM
I think that dailykos article is rather trivial and belabors the obvious - which is why a political economist like Krugman is slow on the uptake (and whose remarks are remarkably similar to another political economist, back in the '90s, named Robert Reich).
Sometimes it is so simple and fundamental that resorting to equations and graphs is almost nonsensical: 73% of the uppermost American corporations and American-based multinationals don't pay federal taxes (due to "profit laundering" via offshore finance centers - primarily owned by the banksters), while the tax base made up of American workers is rapidly shrinking due to excessive jobs offshoring and foreign jobs creation (multinationals creating jobs offshore as opposed to creating jobs locally with that federal stimulus money); ergo, the multiplier and cascading loss effect goes into overdrive with resultant loss of tax revenues, statewide, countywide and citywide.
As the American economy has been consumer-driven since the 1920s, dramatic devastation must be the order of the day!
Alan Blinder, one of those pseudo-economists (at Princeton, I believe) who has always been part of the problem and not any part of the solution, not too long ago stated that his research (glaringly obvious to the rest of us) indicated massive jobs offshoring by 2010-2012 (I think that's a rather late estimate), with horrendous economic consequences to the American worker.
Of course, wanting to keep his position at Princeton, Blinder claimed there is nothing we can do about this as it's all about globalization!
Friday the GDP numbers will be released. Now I am seeing the build up to claim the Stimulus worked, but that's if GDP comes in a a -1.5% but be prepared for them to claim it still worked if it's lower.
Most amusing is I'm seeing "22k jobs created" and then claims of 750k jobs saved...
well, I'm sorry but this is all "thumb in the air" spin trying to claim that there is a hard fast correlation between GDP vs. actual jobs....which obviously has broken this recession.
More assuredly but I thought I'd give a heads up because various groups are already releasing their spin pregame.
Jez, can we get some accuracy here?
$2 trillion for CRE and another several trillion for residential real estate soon we will be talking real money.
Seriously, I know that treasury and fed would like banks to earn their way out of this mess. But the only way that happens is if they take more risks. That means nothing changes and nothing is learned.
How can we seriously talk about a "recovery" with toxic assets still on the books?
RebelCapitalist.com - Financial Information for the Rest of Us.
We know you are reading EP and we're glad you're here!
But consider coming out the shadows, creating an account and joining in the discussion and critique. We learn from you as much as you're learning from us and I think all of us can use all the help we can get!
Honestly I thought manfrommiddletown might be making this a little overblown, simply because the CRE is smaller than residential, but $2.2 trillion tells a different tale.
Ever feel like Cassandra? I think we should rename the site.
Right now it seems policy makers are more busy trying to get the public to accept the rape of the middle class instead of really doing something about it.
I mean in all seriousness, if anyone who goes to D.C. where their focus is on manufacturing, trade, jobs....
if they get a seat at the table....is that the kiddie table in the kitchen?
It's almost like segregation in terms of the enormous blow off on the entire manufacturing (production) economy, including the corporations who contribute.
(If you want to call putting some green kid in charge of GM who supposedly is going to offshore outsource to China attention).
what this weak and slow growth means. This means long and high structural unemployment. This means that people may be unemployed a lot longer than their unemployment compensation. This means that any emergency savings will be exhausted. This means more people will be tapping into retirement savings just to survive. This means that if people are lucky to get a job it will be for much less money.
This is the "New Normal". Unfortunately, we are not ready for it.
RebelCapitalist.com - Financial Information for the Rest of Us.
and what I find even more frightening is the public focus, the public demand for those policy changes, for those deep structural changes is flying off of the radar screen.
and they are right there, for any analysis to view, the growing income inequality, the fact very few are prepared for retirement (and they will not, absolutely will not acknowledge that retirement was raided and this is the real reason why, plus getting fired/laid off all of the time, careers cut short may have something to do with the ability to save)...
I mean we even have Stimulus jobs being offshore outsourced. Yet we still cannot get the focus on this and even worse, the entire blogosphere has become bogged down in calling a recession bottom or the "green shoots/yellow weeds" argument?
We see many new 3PL's and Freight Forwarders looking for better deals and since Feb 09, we have had a large increase of 3PL's get on board our system and rate engine.
More companies and 3PL's are rate shopping and if this economy gets any worse, you will start to see more carriers closing their doors.
You must just laugh out loud because all the headlines are ablaze with "breaking news" that a compromise was reached with "blue dog" Dems on health care...
but of course, guess what, none of the details or specifics will be released.
Are you noticing a pattern where there is a "debate" going on where no one has the actual facts?
It's astounding one can have "news" and "debate" without any specifics.
Then I can't name a single company where the executives shouldn't be voted out. But it won't happen- because in many cases, the executives ARE the majority shareholders, voting themselves largess from the corporate treasury.
-------------------------------------
Maximum jobs, not maximum profits.
A. You're oblivious to the plight of many Americans
B. Cannot read the unemployment statistics or the foreclosure rates
C. Houses are being bought by speculators, very similar to the flippers in 2000-2008, some of whom went bust like the last to pull the Russian Roulette gun.
D. Trying to claim you will live in multiple houses is most interesting. Sure thing.
To answer your question.
People like myself are buying houses, as a matter of fact in my close group of friends at least 6 have bought a house/closing on a house in the last 4 months.
In our area, houses are selling at about a 40% discount off the top. Your area, I don't know and can't speak for.
We: are mid-20s, have useful college degrees and have well paying jobs. We've been saving up for this for the last 1-2 years, we have the down payment and excellent credit.
What we're buying: newer built, mid to low range priced houses and condos.
But OMG the world is ending?: no, things will be fine.
You're just speculators: We're not trying to make it rich by selling these houses in a year or two. No, we plan to live here. Interest rates are great, hell I got 4.75% in Feb., and I'm fairly happy with that. My mortgage+taxes is about what rent on my place would cost .
But you'll lose your job, DOOOOM?: no, things seem to be just fine. I've known 3 people lose their jobs as software developers in the last 4 months, all found new jobs within a month and at better pay. Besides, we got houses that are easy to afford, and we have emergency funds to last for months.
PS: There are many like us, try and shop around, you'll hear this all over the place.
I hope this answers some of your questions.
you can see my comments on the beyond belief insanity and in the legislative process, they can take on unread managers amendments which can change an entire bill at the end...plus, conferees, which rectify the differences between house and Senate bills after they pass, literally just half a dozen or less reps./Sen. can also completely change a bill after it has passed both houses.
Those spread sheets remind me of "comprehensive" immigration reform, which were loaded to the hilt with corporate lobbyists' agendas.
So, navigating through the noise and finding out the absolute facts of a bill is one Sherlock Holmes nightmare.
Another favorite are amendments which they will not even release in the Congressional record in detail...anywhere.
and why NDD did not post it here is truly beyond me.
That said, while NDD points to there is a problem, and points to the trade deficit as well as uses some of the same data I saw from the Atlanta Fed, I'm writing about the discoveries themselves, from Academia, as well as written up very nicely by the main economist at Business week, as to what specifically is going on to skew the GDP and productivity statistics.
Different angles, same topic....i.e. finding proof as to why the U.S. is hemorrhaging jobs, which so many others try to repress and ignore.
I am sensing (take with a grain of salt) that Wyden's bill Health Americans Act may be a source of compromise.
I think a trial balloon has been floated via a Ezra Klein column today in WaPo:
Ezra Klein seems to be backing away from the "public insurance option".
RebelCapitalist.com - Financial Information for the Rest of Us.
this isnt so big news or something
i dont wanna be rude or something, but he is not the only one, just like people who were managers in the employer companies not are begging for food.
Pages