Recent comments

  • Doesn't it just blow you away? Watching to much of it has to be bad for one's mental health. All of your observations, I can say, yes, yes, yes...it's not an information stream, it's a obfuscation, noise machine.

    CNBC ratings are down 28%, which I guess is a good sign. I hope all of the cable TV heads get toasted for running "beer" and "Michael Jackson" and the beyond belief, beyond incredible either no information at all, or misinformation on health care reform. I mean this is major, difficult to track on the lobbyists, what's in the bills and you cannot get a fact out of that TV box to save your soul!

    I have a question for you JV. When Exxon reported a 66% drop in profits, I checked ETF DUG, thinking for sure that would increase since it's a 2x ultra short and I believe Exxon is one of the biggest contributors...

    yet it looks like "thack", no where. These ETFs, esp. those 2x ratios trackers Proshare has, sure look suspect on delivering what they peddle.

    Reply to: United States GDP, Q2 2009 in at -1%   15 years 5 months ago
    EPer:
  • When it comes to the news channels, I've practically given up. To be honest, it's all the same dribble. The same formula is used every time on these news channels when they get into politics. I mean, do you ever see them just report what is going on or are they always trying to get someone to put a spin on it. Most of this always seems to happen:

    A) They get two people who obviously disagree with each other
    B) They get someone who they think knows something about the topic because on another show or news article (or lately blog post) said something related
    C) When they get "experts" on, it's either something resembling A) or some hack who is barely objective.
    D) When there is an argument, it isn't on the merits of the thing at hand, but talk that degenerates into the same tactics 1)Lie, 2) Try and prove the other side is a hypocrite, 3) bring up something entirely different to prove that the other side is either lying or a hypocrite. I'm sure there are other tactics...oh wait forgot, they also tend to be discourteous by talking over each other. Honestly, it's like watching the little ones bicker over the Playstation.

    Some of trader folks I know will have either bloomberg or CNBC or even Fox Business News on, but the volume on Mute. Actually, the growing trend is to turn it off unless the president or some major econ thing like Uncle Ben being on tv, otherwise the channel gets changed. Some have the weather channel (or weather network if you're in Canada), some history channel, or a ball game. As for me? Don't laugh, but I've found my zen through putting the tv on the Food Network.

    The mainstream news is a major Fail in my book. Now Dan Rather wants the President to form a commission on how to "save it". He wants the White House to do something about the news. Frankly that would be troublesome, but I agree the news is completely dreck.

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    www.venomopolis.com

    Reply to: United States GDP, Q2 2009 in at -1%   15 years 5 months ago
    EPer:
  • Norris, durable goods

    click image to enlarge

    The above graphic is from the New York Times article by Floyd Norris, Why a Recovery May Still Feel Like a Recession.

    He zeroes in on durable goods, (the above metric, EI) and notes it's weapons production keeping the numbers from being worse.

    But, one thing I think he misses, most DoD type contracts, which weapons are part of, one needs to have U.S. citizenship to work there quite often, for national security reasons....

    So, in other words, it's one of the last areas that has been less offshore outsourced.

    Reply to: Durable Goods down 2.5% - Another sign of a non-recovery "recovery"   15 years 5 months ago
    EPer:
  • We're trying to get a community blog/forum going, just for U.S. techies (no dues, fees, just a site to discuss, join forces). Check out this article where someone who just got a degree in I.T. is suing the college....believe this or not, colleges still present I.T. and STEM as "shortage" careers. I think suing the college is a most interesting angle.

    Reply to: Study shows over 30% I.T. Jobs being offshored   15 years 5 months ago
    EPer:
  • This article is required reading for every college bound student considering investing years of hard work and tens of thousands of dollars tuition earning a computer software related degree.

    College/career counselers must read this article too before they steer some unsuspecting aspiring student into the Information Technology field. Counselers must be honest and tell prospects that there is a good chance there career will someday be outsourced or replaced by a foreign guest worker.

    As the article shows, the biggest users of H-1B/L1 visas (and green cards too?) are Indian outsourcing firms. It appears they have no intention of hiring more Americans even though they do 50% of their business in North America. They are already trying to find loopholes in a potential law that requires companies doing business in America to hire at least a few Americans.

    Reply to: Study shows over 30% I.T. Jobs being offshored   15 years 5 months ago
    EPer:
  • where you support the Catholic church or whatever all you want. It's your two favorite topics, someone is blasting the Pope and claiming anyone opposed to outsourcing is a racist.

    This assuredly will make your blood boil.

    Now the Pope is a Racist?

    Reply to: Even the Pope Says Globalization has run amok and steam rolled workers   15 years 5 months ago
    EPer:
  • Green Weeds would say that yes we have some positive economic indicators in the economy but they aren't real, it's a reinflation of the bubble economy or say pushing up the financial sector with trillions of dollars...

    i.e. not the right kind of things we want to see recover.

    Brown weeds means everything is toast. I guess I should have added "salted and barren" for the Economic Armageddon is coming crowd.

    Glad to see you back JV! I should mention, we might be getting a lot more classic investors, traders, finance type readers and this area of the site has not gotten a lot of love in topic area.

    Reply to: You Are?   15 years 5 months ago
    EPer:
  • between "Green weeds" and "Brown weeds"?

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    www.venomopolis.com

    Reply to: You Are?   15 years 5 months ago
    EPer:
  • They have until October.

    Politics always trumps Free Markets and it's all calculated!

    If this fiasco hasn't turned-around by then, the O-Team will send in "The Cleaner" and the Election Cycle will rein.

    Result:
    - misallocated Capital encouraged overcapacity and the Social Contract with Labor is null & void
    - End of '09, Bargaining & Hope is lost and Anger causes heads to roll (i.e., B.B., L.S. and T.G. are out as the nation moves closer to socialism)
    - 2010 will bring Depression and will end with Acceptance
    - 2011 re-election campaign kicks in with promises to Labor of a "Road to Recovery"
    - 2012 Capital gets the backseat, Labor is in the driver's seat. O-Team is re-elected with a majority in the House

    The fate of capitalism as we know it, will forever have changed!

    Election Cycles:
    ...note election year Novembers, the February following election year Novembers has been an excellent indicator as to whether the election year November would mark[s] an important top. In every case since at least 1968, when February following election year November moves to a higher high than the January following election year November, the market has proceeded to do very well.

    Conversely, when the post-election year February is unable to move higher than the post-election year January, a significant market decline has always followed. This may be coincidence but it has proved prescient for at least the past 40 years.

    Reply to: Study shows economy twice as bad as first reported   15 years 5 months ago
    EPer:
  • Firstly, check over in the user guide on how to post images. You can do that in comments, where ever and I have the basic format. I notice you're having problems with that so lots of stop of EP to help with formatting. Rich-text editor has an image tool, just click on the icon when in it and put the URL where it says.

    On Olbermann/O'Reilly I mean in all seriousness, can you take either of them seriously? I can't and have seen just incredible BS, not factual stuff (I mean who could have missed Olbermann's misogyny during the primaries?). Sometimes I turn on Glenn Beck just because to me it's comedy hour. I seriously laugh out loud watching it....

    Then, CNN, they too do stories that are obvious pure ratings plays or worse, misinformation. Ali Velshi is the biggest hogwash artist I've seen in a while....did you see that during the initial TARP funds? He would shower the board with graphs and then report things that really made no sense whatsoever.

    It was so bad, on EP, I literally put in some Michael Jackson keywords to see what happened. It increased the hits on those posts (which had nothing to do with Michael Jackson of course!) 10x.

    I also tried posting a comment on Krugman's blog. They censor so much I'm surprised something got through. See if I can get one through this time.

    So, what's our moral? We need more participation on EP, get more people looking at things from first principles, discussing, debating. So, when you see someone who has insight, or very good writers invite them over to participate.

    What I see happening, at least on EP, is participation is down. It's like the world believes the MSM message that all is well, recession over, move along now, nothing to see.

    So now we see posts on the most mundane, the most trivial, beer, the Gates "non-controversy" controversy (I mean, Good friggin' God, if they want to get into that one, try comparing the employment rates of blacks vs. India ethnicity as an example)....

    meanwhile these major financial, economic structural reforms, actions.....oh yawn, no one is paying attention and one can guarantee in that case....nothing is going to happen.

    Reply to: United States GDP, Q2 2009 in at -1%   15 years 5 months ago
    EPer:
  • I saw that post by Krugman and did you notice how many in the comments section called him out on it? To borrow a term from a transplanted Yank in Australia, the "bogosity" of information contained in the various government reports and the daily MSM is, in a word, Orwellian.

    I found this chart showing GDP versus GDP without Government spending. It looks like the Govt. spending had approximately a +4% effect on 2Q Real GDP. One might say that this is exactly what a Keynesian stimulus is all about, right? However, we know that the stimulus expenditures have barely begun. The vast majority of the expenditures we are seeing relate to the various bailout programs of the Treasury and the FDIC. Unfortunately, these have had little, if any, effect on unemployment and the real economy. All they have done is change the solution to the GDP equation. . . which, along with $4, will get you a latte at your favorite cafe.

    Also, I would like to mention that Glenn Greenwald has this very disturbing article this morning. It just goes to show how easily the news can be manipulated in our corporate owned MSM.

    Reply to: United States GDP, Q2 2009 in at -1%   15 years 5 months ago
    EPer:
  • They have a tally of 69 failures total.

    Beyond the fact that we have a pattern of burying the news on Friday @ 5pm EST, what are the bigger implications on all of these failures?

    Ya know, it's like, ok, it's almost routine, like Happy Hour or something to see Bank Failure Friday.

    I'm now out of touch with the implications. Is the FDIC still have funding, what's this mean to the taxpayer long term and so on.

    I mean with something like Citigroup and AIG being predicted to never pay back even TARP (and lord knows what else they have from the Fed.) $1B here, $2.67B here seems like chump change.

    The numbers are so massive it's warped even my perspective.

    Reply to: Bank Failure Friday: #65-68   15 years 5 months ago
    EPer:
  • Firstly, feel validated, Econ Browser pretty much is saying what we are and goes into more analysis and also points to GDP elements which could, just by stopping the hemorrhage, make the GDP turn positive. So in other words, not real growth yet GDP would read positive.

    Secondly, Krugman, he's trying to claim there isn't any anomaly with GDP to unemployment rate. That Okum's Law is holding just fine. Problem is, it looks like he's fudging the numbers trying to make it fit and that's with the new GDP revisions.

    Oh, oh how so many try to deny trade, outsourcing, insourcing affects the middle class....

    Reply to: United States GDP, Q2 2009 in at -1%   15 years 5 months ago
    EPer:
  • into the post.

    Yeah, it's clearly not healthy at all, but we also need to look at the breakdown of Q1 2009.

    That's the only good news, it's not "cliff diving" but this is consistent with what I've concluded so far, overall the "cliff dive" has stopped.

    But....on the other hand we just had major revisions on Q1 and backwards, now twice what was originally reported as a decline....so it's possible this Q2 figure will be "revised" as well.

    Another thing though is the imports, exports. Because they are a difference, they both can decline, which obvious implies a lot of companies are not making things globally but also clearly here in the U.S., but because the balance of decline has changed, i.e. imports declined more than exports, it "puffs up" the actual GDP number.

    BTW: to post images you need the tag img, not embed.

    I have correctors on the site to display things even when mistakes are made but I was surprised for the embed tag is something for flash movies.

    Reply to: United States GDP, Q2 2009 in at -1%   15 years 5 months ago
    EPer:
  • Take a look at this chart comparing Second Quarter US Real GDP Percentage Changes From Previous Quarter At Annual Rates (Source BEA) (h/t hellasious):

    This is the AMERICA we currently live in. I guess you can say that it is less likely that the terrorists will come and attack us in our beds. But, does this look like a healthy economy to anyone? And what happens down the road when this game of borrowing from the future finally collapses?

    Reply to: United States GDP, Q2 2009 in at -1%   15 years 5 months ago
    EPer:
  • This is not just an economic or financial crisis, it is, or will soon be, a full blown political and social crisis as well.

    We aren't there yet, but when this economy takes another sharp downturn, which I'm betting it will, that's when there will be political and social consequences. That's when people will look for scapegoats.

    Early in the Great Depression the communists, and then socialists, were there to point out who was responsible for the calamity. People listened.
    I remember reading that when the Bonus Marchers reached Washington they were chanting anti-Wall Street banker slogans. And these were veterans, not communists.

    Today there is no communist or socialist party. And the MSM is even worse than it was then.
    People need to know who the culprits were, and how they did it, otherwise they will fall for the old lies: immigrants, terrorists, and infidels. Just like Nazi Germany.

    Reply to: Study shows economy twice as bad as first reported   15 years 5 months ago
    EPer:
  • all of the anomalies is why I hope all continue to look at all of the stats and keep an open mind instead of "deciding", which is why I am almost poking fun at the green shoots/brown weeds argument.

    I frankly hope you're wrong as hell but I mean I'm seeing, pointing out data that isn't matching the typical cycles too and that is what it is!

    This is off topic to what you're talking about, but did you see Grayson's questioning on Ben Bernanke asking about $500B in foreign currency swaps?

    Now some think this is a "huge deal" but I didn't see it that way, it was more to increase the supply of dollars but Grayson seems to imply it caused the dollar to depreciate...

    anyway, did you see that and what do you make of it?

    Reply to: Study shows economy twice as bad as first reported   15 years 5 months ago
    EPer:
  • Absolutely agree with you midtowng, this is not a normal recession and we have oodles of deleveraging still ahead. Back in February, Steve Keen wrote a terrific analysis of the current situation called The Roving Cavaliers of Credit. The implications of the Fed's monetary policies, indeed the global reaction, is to just kick the inevitable down the road a bit but, at the same time, compound the ultimate price paid.

    Your analogies to the GD are also appropriate, IMO, to get a feel for how long and how far down we have to go. Like you, I just think we are only in the very beginning stages of this deflationary event. This is not just an economic or financial crisis, it is, or will soon be, a full blown political and social crisis as well.

    Reply to: Study shows economy twice as bad as first reported   15 years 5 months ago
    EPer:
  • There are lots of reasons why this isn't your run of the mill recession, but one thing I'd like to point out is monetary policy.

    First of all, every post-WWII recession until this one was caused, more or less, by the Federal Reserve tightening the money supply to cut off inflation.
    This Depression wasn't caused by Federal Reserve policy.

    Another, perhaps more important point, is Fed response.
    The rule of thumb is that there is a 9-18 month time lag between the Fed cutting interest rates, and their impact on the economy.
    Well, the Effective Federal Funds rate began dropping back in late 2007. It hit bottom in late 2008.

    It's been more than 18 months since the Fed began cutting rates and we still can't produce positive economic growth. It's been almost 9 months since rates were lowered to zero, and we still can't get the economy moving.

    None of this is like a normal recession.

    Reply to: Study shows economy twice as bad as first reported   15 years 5 months ago
    EPer:
  • Yes, I remember that post and you as well as others are showing some uncanny tracking. BUT! while we sure as hell do not have the policies in place we need..

    we also do not have the policies in place by the Hoover administration either. i.e. UI, some Stimulus (such as it is), food stamps (such as they are)....but one thing I noticed in the GDP report is some deflationary data...

    So, while I think we have long term structural problems which will keep the U.S. middle class screwed, the nation FUBAR but more stuck in the mud mess...

    hmmmm, I'm have to revisit that 1930-1934 period again to jump onto the "D word" scenario.

    Reply to: Study shows economy twice as bad as first reported   15 years 5 months ago
    EPer:

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