Making a prediction

I'm gonna go on a limb here. I'm going to make a call I may end up regretting. So here goes....

The 30 Year Bond will return as the new benchmark, dethroning the current "king", the 10-year (which incidentally did the same to the 30 year about a decade back).


There is no damn way that everything from these tax cuts to spending on roads is going to be financed through short-term securities. Even 10 year notes are too much of an interest rate risk for the government. Hell, half a decade out, given that so much cash (thank you to you bloggers on here posting those M1 through M3 charts) that we will eventually see reflation. All this could lead to higher interest rates, something that could crush the government's finances. Right about now, I'd post some charts and stuff, but it's 3am and I still woozy from meds. But here is something to keep in mind, much of the debt in this country goes through periodic rollovers. Corporations with outstanding interest-bearing liabilities will be doing this as well, as those bonds mature. There will be competition for capital, that means the possibility of rates increasing.

I'd say they will, like homeowners, refinance taking advantage of the now low rates and going longer term. There is even the possibility we could see even a longer-term debenture (a 50-year??), though that's in the realm of speculation. We're at $11 trillian, and unless there is a major debt reduction plan, we could be at $13 by the end of the year easily. Debt needs to get rolled over, and if you were a businessperson who has the chance of taking advantage of lower rates for a longer period versus taking a chance at higher rates down the road, what would you do?

So, once more, I am making the call...the 30 Year Bond (unless replaced by something longer term, or by some damn miracle we get agressive in paying down the debt), will return as the new benchmark!

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When I refinance

As soon as this March, I'm going to be looking at 15-year mortgages. The reason? I'm against rolling over debt forever, I'm for paying it off.

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