The December 2013 ISM Non-manufacturing report shows the overall index decreased by -0.9 percentage points, to 53.0%. The NMI is also referred to as the services index and the decrease indicates slower growth for the service sector. New orders just plunged, by -7.0 percentage points, and went into contraction. So did inventories as well as order backlogs stayed in contraction.
The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders report shows factory new orders increased 1.8% for November. Without transportation equipment, new orders increased 0.6%. October showed a drop in factory orders by -0.5%. For Q4, factory orders are starting to shape up and the signs point to increased economic demand.
The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders increased by 3.5% for November 2013 after a -0.7% decrease in October. The really good news in this report is the growth in core capital goods. New orders in core capital goods increased 4.5% for November This report is often revised dramatically, yet even inventories did not decline. Even without volatile aircraft durable goods new orders increased.
Q3 2013 real GDP had yet another blow out revision upward and is now 4.1%. Originally GDP was reported to be 2.8% for the third quarter, then it was revised to 3.6%. Now we have another revision showing a whopping large third quarter GDP. This is the largest quarterly economic growth since Q4 2011.
Q3 2013 real GDP had a blow out revision and is now 3.6%. Originally GDP was reported to be 2.8% for the third quarter. As estimated, dramatically increasing inventory accumulation was the main cause of the large upward revision to GDP. Changes in inventories accounted for 46.5% of Q3 GDP.
The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders decreased by -2.0% for October 2013 after a 4.1% increase in September. The decline was mainly aircraft as transportation durable goods new orders by themselves dropped -5.9%. Without transportation orders, which aircraft is a large part, durable goods new orders fell by -0.1%. We also estimate Q3 GDP will be revised upward to 3.2% on inventories.
The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders report shows factory new orders increased 1.7% for September. Without transportation equipment, new orders decreased -0.2%. August showed an overall -0.1% decline in new orders whereas July had a -2.8% plunge. For Q3 factory orders looks none too good.
The September 2013 ISM Non-manufacturing report shows the overall index decreased by -4.2 percentage points, to 54.4%. The NMI is also referred to as the services index and the decrease indicates slower growth for the service sector. The business activity index dropped by -7.1 percentage points to 55.1%. Both indexes are still above June 2013 levels.
Q2 2013 real GDP was revised significantly upward to 2.5% from the 1.7% originally reported The revision gain was almost all a reduction in the trade deficit as we predicted earlier. The shrink in the trade deficit alone added 0.8 percentage points to Q2 GDP, a welcome change. Unfortunately this is a fluke.
Business Inventories, or Manufacturing and Trade Sales and Inventories, show a no change in June inventories and a -0.1% change for May. Sales increased 0.2% for June and 1.1% for May. This is really bad news for Q2 GDP.
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