economy

What You Weren't Told About the Financial Crisis - The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission

Submitted by on

By Numerian


The best the Commission can do is say “Alan Greenspan should have done this, and he shouldn’t have done that.” It cannot say that there is something deeply corrupting in the way politicians of both parties think and act in Washington.

"There Is No Economic Justification for Deficit Reduction" Galbraith to Deficit Commission

Posted by Michael Collins

Your proceedings are clouded by illegitimacy.

The conclusion to be drawn is that Social Security should in any event be off the agenda of your Commission, as it is a transfer program and not a program of public spending in the economic sense. In particular it does not use capital resources and will not drive up interest rates. This is true whether the "Social Security System" is in internal balance or not.
--James K. Galbraith

Why Economic Growth in the United States Cannot Happen

By Joaquin posted by Michael Collins


So, you cut back on your lifestyle; performed a so un-Greek personal austerity reset but your credit card balance is still creeping up; or perhaps you are slowly burning through your savings; or you are at the end of the line; abandon ship. Whatever, you have a lot of company out there. (Image)

Why is it so hard to make ends meet these days? The days of living high on the credit hog are over and we all have to get small but in the end, we still have to make ends meet; we have to pay for food, pay for utilities, buy gas, etc. How to make that work?

We all bought a lot of stuff during those days of easy credit. Debt driven demand drove up the value of lots of things. Homes increased in value so much that they became a kind of income harvested through a home equity line of credit. Autos got big and powerful again making them unaffordable to buy and operate now that we have to live within our means. Cell phones replaced land lines and cost a lot more; especially when everyone in the family has to have one. Maybe you have a home that you cannot sell and you are stuck living 20 miles or more from your workplace and your car is fast reaching the point when you will need a new one just to get to work.

Three years later and still nothing has been learned

Submitted by on

Three years ago this past Saturday the economic crisis struck.

That's why the comments by Alan Greenspan on the very same day on Meet the Press are worth noting.

"There is no doubt that the federal funds rate can be fixed at what the Fed wants it to be but which the government has no control over is long-term interest rates and long-term interest rates are what make the economy move. And if this budget problem eventually merges to the point where it begins to become very toxic, it will be reflected in rising long-term interest rates, rising mortgage rates, lower housing. At the moment there is no sign of that because the financial system is broke and you can not have inflation if the financial system is not working."

The Information that was Missing from Last Friday's GDP Report

The April 30th GDP report issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis ("BEA") of the U. S. Department of Commerce was a freeze-frame quarterly snapshot of a highly dynamic economy -- an economy that another source indicates was in significant transition while the snapshot was being taken.

Compared to the 4th quarter of 2009, the annualized growth rate of the GDP had dropped by 43%. Depending on your point of view this could be interpreted either as a glass that is "half-full" or a glass that is "half-empty":

1) The "half-full" reading would mean that the GDP numbers confirm that the recovery had at least moderated to a historically normal growth rate. In this scenario the good news would have been that "the economy is still growing," albeit at a historically normal rate. The bad news would have been that a normal growth rate would only warrant normal P/E ratios in the equity markets.

2) The "half-empty" reading would have meant that the near halving of the GDP's growth rate confirmed that (at the factory level) the economy had finally begun to "roll over". If so, the BEA's announcement portends even lower readings in the quarters to follow.

What was clearly missing in the "half-full/half-empty" debate was a feel for whether the level seen in the snapshot's glass was stable or still dropping. At the Consumer Metrics Institute our measurements of the web-based consumer "demand" side economy support the "half-empty" reading of the new GDP data. The new GDP numbers (which are subject to at least two revisions) agree with where our "Daily Growth Index" was on November 24th, 2009, 18 weeks prior to the end of 2010's first calendar quarter -- and when that index was in precipitous decline.

Unpublished

The Real Economy, Long-Term Employment, and Four-Inch Stilettos

Submitted by on

Greetings all.

Searching through the site, I could not find any reference to Lynn Tilton, a unique and compelling lady about whom you may want to know.

A couple of weeks ago, NPRs Planet Money dubbed her 'The Private Equity Boss in Four-Inch Stilettos.' They posted a great podcast diving into the details of her work buying distressed companies.

More relevant for this community, however, is Lynn's unique and intimate perspective on the dire state of our economy and the solutions needed to support American industry and spur long-term job creation.

Twice on Yahoo! Finance this week, she spoke about two issues: The Huge Disconnect Between Stock Market and the Real Economy and Unemployment Benefits Just a "Band-Aid" Tilton Says, America Needs Industrial Jobs.

Jukin' The Stats.

Submitted by on

My all time favorite TV series is "The Wire", which ran for 5 years on HBO. Throughout the series, the common thread was the affinity, by the police, the mayor, city politicians and even the drug lords, to "juke the stats". In other words, "tell them what they want to hear", and move on.

In this vein, I've been all over the econoblogosphere today and I'm surprised that this excellent article from Yves Smith hasn't gotten more attention.

Many of us here at EP, and elsewhere, have questioned the veracity of new data eminating from the Census Bureau, the BLS (a.k.a. Bureau of Lying Statistics) and other gov't agencies. In particular, any new reports pertaining to housing, unemployment levels and CPI must be taken with a heavy dose of skepticism.

There will be no recovery! (At least none that you will like.)

Submitted by on

You are probably familiar with the old fable about the scorpion and the frog. The one where the scorpion asks the frog for a ride across a river and the frog declines because it fears that the scorpion will kill it. Then the scorpion cons the frog by appealing to the logic that if it kills the frog, it would surely die too. Convinced, the frog agrees to help the scorpion but half way across the river, the scorpion stings the frog anyway. Paralyzed, in shock of disbelief, and just before sinking, the frog asks the scorpion "Why did you sting me"? The scorpion replies that it was just in its nature.

NELP: 1.5 Million to Exhaust Unemployment by December.

A little noticed report issued by the National Employment Law Project last Friday dropped something of a bombshell. By the end of this year 1.5 million Americans currently receiving unemployment benefits will have exhausted them.

A sobering analysis released today by the National Employment Law Project estimates that 540,000 Americans will exhaust their unemployment insurance benefits by the end of September, and a whopping 1.5 million will run out of coverage by the end of the year. NELP’s state-by-state analysis comes on the same day as the states announce their latest unemployment figures, and together they demonstrate the pressing need for more extensions.

Pages