"Hard Crash": Construction Jobs In Philadelphia Set To Plunge As Residential Projects Hit A Wall

Construction jobs in Philadelphia could plunge soon as a result of a "glut" of residential projects finishing up with questionable demand waiting behind them, according to a new report from BisNow. 

In fact, some developers are calling for a "hard crash" after a rush to capitalize on the city's 10-year tax abatement program "temporarily sent activity into the stratosphere".

Construction is bustling along the city’s main thoroughfares as teams tackle a large backlog of projects permitted before the expiration of a key tax abatement program in January 2022. Over 26,000 units were approved in 2021, a significant increase from 2020, with the work expected to conclude within the next 18 months, the report says. 

Driven by low interest rates and the rush to meet the tax break deadline, a surge in construction began in 2022. Last year saw over 10,000 units hit the market, with another 16,000 upscale units expected to finish in the next 18 months.

However, new housing permits have dipped significantly, with only 949 issued in January and 986 in February across the Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington region, per census data.

Vince Jolly, founder and president of CVA Commercial Group, said: “It's not even anticipating a downturn. The downturn's already here.” 

He continued, telling BisNow: “I think construction workers, obviously, are going to get hit hard. Because once these jobs dry up, I mean, what else are they going to do?"

Construction employment in the city increased by 1.5% from 2021 to 2023, with 121,000 local workers in the trade by late last year, according to census data. However, new apartment construction starts have dropped over 30% from their late 2022 peak, and 99 projects comprising 17,000 units have been halted at the proposal stage, as per CoStar data.

The Riverwards Group Managing Partner Mo Rushdy commented: “That glut of apartments will solve itself, let's say, by May 2025. The real problem is, No. 1, jobs. We hear from our friend in the trade unions and from others that projects are going to dry up in terms of the residential industry and when it comes to new jobs coming from the pipeline of ’26 and ’27.”

“I'll tell you from experience, we're not even seeking financing,” Rushdy added.

“I see the bigger players are starting to be impacted. Companies that were very profitable for the past couple of years are barely making it,” Calvin Snowden, founder and managing partner of Philadelphia-based construction management firm BDFS Group said.

“I’m an engineer, not an economist, [but] I know there’s a problem. I know the interest rates have to come down since the projects don’t make sense anymore. The numbers just don’t work.”

Despite nearly 100 multifamily projects being put on hold, such as Alterra Property Group's 352-unit building in University City, some large projects are continuing. Notably, Tower Investments is progressing with its 1,111-unit project in Center City, which represents 6.5% of all units currently under construction in the metro area and is the nation's 11th-largest ongoing apartment project.

However, large projects are becoming rare. Mark Cartella of Alterra Group suggests that the industry may see a decline in large-scale projects before smaller ones. Meanwhile, redevelopments are driving activity for Benchmark Construction Group, with projects underway in Fishtown and other areas of high demand like South and North Philadelphia, focusing on both new construction and existing housing.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/21/2024 - 14:35

Judge Who Handed Down $454 Million Trump Penalty Set To Rule On Validity Of Reduced Bond

Authored by Catherine Yang via The Epoch Times,

After weeks of trying to secure a bond and arguing to an appeals court that a $454 million bond was “impossible,” former President Donald Trump secured a $175 million bond to stay judgment only to now have to make the case all over again why this should satisfy the New York Attorney General and stop her from seizing his properties.

On April 22, New York Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron, the trial court judge who set the $454 million judgment, will hear the attorney general’s challenge to the sufficiency of President Trump’s bond.

The $175 million figure had been set by the appellate division of the New York Supreme Court, and President Trump has frequently criticized Justice Engoron for “ignoring” appeals court orders, such as when he allowed evidence past the statute of limitations set by the appellate division during the trial.

Who’s Backing the Bond?

The attorney general has sought to cast doubt on the stability of LA-based Knight Specialty Insurance Company (KSIC), calling it a “small insurer” and arguing it is not authorized to do business in New York.

They argued that KSIC has never before written a surety bond, and has “a total policyholder surplus of just $138 million.”

Amit Shah, president of the insurance company, demanded the court compel the attorney general to show cause, or prove the allegation that the insurance company is not sufficient.

Mr. Shah submitted a sworn affidavit explaining that KSIC now has control over a bank account of President Trump’s that will maintain $175 million cash for the duration of the appeal. The insurance company entered into a collateral agreement with the Donald J. Trump Revocable Trust. Mr. Shah submitted documents establishing that his company is in “good standing” and was approved for excess line eligibility in New York in June 2021.

“As an eligible excess line insurer in the state of New York, KSIC is, therefore, properly authorized to issue the surety on behalf of Defendants,” he stated.

This authorization stands as long as the insurance company meets the Excess Line Association of New York’s requirement of maintaining a minimum $47 million policyholder surplus, and Mr. Shah stated his company is maintaining a $48 million surplus minimum.

He added that as of the end of 2023, the insurance company had $539 million in assets and $138 in equity, and its parent company, Knight Insurance Company, had on a consolidated basis $1 billion in assets and $1 billion in equity. The parent company also maintains $56 million in cash and $937 million in marketable securities to support reinsurance obligations.

“At my direction, KSIC also performed diligence to confirm its legal authority to act as surety before issuing the subject bond,” Mr. Shah stated.

“Although KSIC had not before placed a surety bond in New York, KSIC is an excess line insurer in the state of New York.”

The attorney general also took issue with the fact that KSIC does not have “exclusive right” to the account containing $175 million in cash, and highlighted the fact that it would need “two days’ notice” to move that cash.

State attorneys urged the court to “not rely on KSIC’s financial summary” because the insurance company “sends 100% of its retained insurance risk to affiliates in the Cayman Islands,” which they argued “artificially bolsters its surplus.”

They argued that excess line insurers are only authorized if the management is found “trustworthy and competent,” and KSIC did not qualify because “its management has been found by federal authorities to have operated affiliated companies within KSIC’s holding company structure in violation of federal law on multiple occasions within the past several years.”

Knight is under The Hankey Group of financial companies, which includes the affiliate Westlake Financial Services LLC. The attorney general argued that Westlake was found to have “violated numerous federal laws by pressuring borrowers through the use of illegal debt collection tactics, including using phony caller ID information, falsely threatening to refer borrowers for investigation or criminal prosecution” in 2015 by the U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The company was fined and provided $44 million in restitution to consumers.

The attorney general is requesting that President Trump be required to post a replacement bond within seven days.

30 Companies Said No

The bond required was originally $454 million, but attorneys for President Trump argued that they had employed four brokers who for weeks negotiated with the largest sureties in the world to no avail.

Some 30 companies would not fill the bond, they argued, because sureties normally will not take hard assets—like real estate, Trump Organization’s primary asset—as collateral.

Instead, they would require the bond amount in cash, plus additional premiums given the unusually large size, totaling to what they estimated to be more than $550 million cash.

On the eve of the deadline for posting bond, President Trump took to social media to claim that he had close to $500 million in cash, but had planned to use much of it on his reelection campaign and did not want to hand it over to a New York court as he fights to keep his buildings.

He further claimed in a follow-up press conference that the $454 million figure was one the attorney general and judge arbitrarily settled on because they had seen a number similar to it in his bank accounts, which have been disclosed to the court during the course of the civil fraud case.

The attorney general had originally sought $250 million, which increased to about $370 million by the end of the trial. Plus backdated interest, President Trump was ordered to pay $454 million in all.

Trump attorneys submitted a sworn affidavit from one of the brokers hired to negotiate the $454 million bond, who explained that in the surety world, $100 million was a large bond, and hardly issued to private individuals. He stated that only a “handful” of sureties are even authorized by the federal government to issue bonds that big, and many had internal policies limiting bonds they issue to $100 million. He also affirmed that sureties do not take hard assets as collateral, because they are not designed to quickly liquidate them in the event a bond has to be paid.

The attorney general urged the court not to take these affidavits at face value, calling into question the lawyer and broker’s credibility by claiming they had prior connections with President Trump. The state attorneys suggested that the reason President Trump could not fill the bond was instead because his companies may not be in as good standing as he claimed.

Trump attorneys pointed out that a court-appointed monitor has given the attorneys and court full access to Trump Organization finances since 2022, and the finances have been transparent.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/21/2024 - 14:00

Should I Stay Or Should I Go?

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Should I Stay or Should I Go?

Coming up for air after what was an intense week on the geopolitical and market side of things, I’m really being forced to reconsider my current recommendations (bearish bonds, stocks, and credit).

I keep thinking:

If I go, there will be trouble
And if I stay, it will be double

Bearish rates has worked well from the start. We turned negative on credit right near the lows, so that too has worked. On equities, by the time we turned bearish, it definitely moved against us. We had some drawdowns, and they seesawed back and forth between potentially making sense and looking very stupid (sometimes, on the same day). Well, the Nasdaq 100 (the main focus of our ire) is now down 7% since April 11th (6 trading days). We saw a rather nasty 2% drop on Friday (even after it had largely recovered from overnight Geopolitical concerns) and is now only up 1%. Our call had been that the market was highly susceptible to a rapid 5% to 10% decline, which we stretched to 10% as it continued to “defy” gravity. Remember, for all the hype about “all-time highs” and “tech is all you need”, the Nasdaq 100 closed above 18,300 all the way back on March 1st and barely got any higher than that in what is now almost 2 months.

We’ve updated this chart since we sent it around in an “informal” report, and the story is even more bleak, though not as bleak as it would have been had the markets closed at 3:45pm when this index was below 17,000.

Based on closing pricing, no one who bought the Nasdaq 100 since January 18th has made money. If you started the year long, you are now sitting on a relatively measly 1% gain – which just does not seem at all consistent with the hype.

In Thursday’s T-Report – We Can Drive it Home, With One Headlight, we reiterated our bearish views, while devoting much of the space to the section “AI valuations seem questionable.” There are some big stocks (some in the AI space) down around 10%. If you are keeping track at home, the leveraged single stock ETF that has caught my attention actually had net inflows on Friday, despite being down 20% - indicating that we haven’t seen a wipe out. I also distinctly remember headline after headline when we had record-setting market cap gains for individual companies, yet crickets on what had to be a historic drop in market cap. Another sign that we have not seen a washout.

But before we go through our analysis and recommendations coming into this week, I have to admit, “Should I Stay or Should I Go” isn’t close to being my favorite song by the Clash. But, I’ve already used “Magnificent Seven”, “Clampdown” seemed too harsh, “Lost in the Supermarket” would have made more sense when inflation was spiking, and “Death or Glory” sadly seems destined to pop up in a piece on geopolitics (the way the world is going). I did want to do I Fought the NDX and I Won, but the Clash cover stuck to the traditional title, and it was the Dead Kennedys who changed it to “I won” rather than “the law won.” But in the end it hasn’t been a resounding win, and I didn’t want to jinx myself too badly if I come out still bearish (spoiler alert, I am).

Equities

Today we will focus on what is “new” as the bear case was well covered in the previously referenced One Headlight piece.

The most bullish thing I can say is that equities are now 5% to 7% cheaper than a week or so ago. So, if you were planning on “backing up the truck” and loading up on stocks, you have that opportunity. You literally have missed nothing by not being massively overweight the Nasdaq 100 since the start of the year. Two issues fighting this come to mind:

• There have been multiple small dips this year, so how much dip buying capacity remains?
• My view is that when people say “I would load the boat if that stock drops 5%”, what they really mean is “I would load the boat if that stock drops 5% in otherwise calm markets, for no apparently good reason, basically letting me buy the same story, but 5% cheaper”. Well, the story and market dynamics have changed. Geopolitical risk has risen. Questions about valuation, easily dismissed when stocks seemed to be up every day (they weren’t but that was the narrative), are not so easily dismissed. As the chart highlights, anyone who bought this year is now likely under water on their new investments in this index (or ETFs like QQQ). Don’t get me started on ARKK, my “go to” proxy for “innovation” and “disruption,” which is down 20% on the year now. I will admit, Bitcoin might be a haven for some of the riskiest risk takers, as it is up strongly on the year, though it too has done very little (except cost buyers money) since the end of February. The “halving” is supposed to take it to the next level. How paying someone 50% less (for the same work that they did) helps the price is beyond me. I mean, I get the miners in particular are incentivized to jack up prices, but the “bitcoin always goes higher after the halving” arguments are based on such a small sample size, that I think it will not work this time as the entire crypto universe seems to think it will.

But anyways, I digress, I just think that enough has changed and enough dips have been bought, that there is no trove of “rescue” money about to flood the market with new buying liquidity.

Since AI remains too important, I will add one thing to the laundry list from Thursday:

• Using Google trends, searches for things like ChatGPT are down and declining. Same for some broader themes on AI. You cannot have FOMO without the Fear of Missing Out and I don’t think we are ripe with Fear any longer. If anything, maybe it is the fear that valuations have gotten ahead of themselves.

Earnings will be important, and we will get several from very important companies this week.

• Maybe it is my imagination (it could be, since there are few data points so far), but the “reaction function” to earnings seems to have changed. As we rallied late last year and at the start of this year, it seemed that the market focused on positives and dismissed negatives. It also seemed to rally on the “same” news, day after day. One stock in a sector would report positives and the market would take the sector significantly higher. A day or two later another company in the sector would give the market something to cheer about and the entire sector would pop again. Wasn’t some of that good news already priced in? I believe we have much higher hurdles this time and the markets are looking for excuses to sell, rather than to buy. I could be wrong on the reaction function or earnings could all beat by so much that we get a reversal, but I’m skeptical on that.

Think like an algo.

• I tend to be a “profit” taker (and “double downer”). When things work, I like to take chips off the table. What I constantly need to remind myself of is that algos are often wired in the opposite direction. They press winners. They tend to follow momentum. They tend to be quick to stop themselves out. I believe algos/quantitative trading models have been exiting stocks. Are they out? Possibly, we have seen higher volumes on this down move. Have they turned from buyers to sellers and are happy to establish shorts and push those? That I don’t know, but my fear of “systematic” trading systems (often described simply as CTAs, but a universe much bigger than that) makes me want to stay bearish.

In the end, I’ve started to reduce shorts, but remain bearish, and think that the correct strategy is to sell bounces and keep reloading shorts, until something occurs that forces me to change my views.

Bond Yields

In the end, on equities, it turned out to be “more of the same” (maybe slightly less pounding on the table), but bonds are far more interesting in terms of “staying” or “going” from a bearish perspective.

We’ve been bearish on yields for most of this year and it has largely worked. Not a one-way street by any stretch of the imagination, but not bad. In fact, we’ve raised our range on the 10-year yield, from 4.2%-4.4% to 4.3%-4.5% and then from 4.4%-4.6%. I don’t think we’ve officially changed the band, but it is implicit that if 10-years are at 4.62% and I’m still bearish (though far less so than at 3.9% where we started the year), the band must be higher. Do we raise the range again? That is always a dangerous game, as many equity analysts, who felt compelled to raise price targets in the past few months, can tell you. Were we too low originally? Have things changed that significantly? Take the win? I’m not sure if repeatedly raising your bands is something that should be considered in current analysis, but it makes sense (at least for me).

Aside from many specific reasons to be bearish, we had the catch-all of “nothing that was in place to push 10s to 5% last fall has been resolved.” That is still true.

What is the bull case for bonds?

• Inflation. While I was never part of the “Super Users” group, I think I can relate to my understanding of the “gist” of the story – wanting more data to better understand what the heck the BLS actually comes up with for inflation. Let’s for the moment assume that inflation has “become sticky” around 2.5% (to pick a number). Then lets think about all the issues with measuring inflation. Hedonic quality adjustments. Substitution. Difficulty measuring. Flawed measurements (housing and rent, while ignoring the always “curious” use of Owners Equivalent Rent, have a lag effect built in, for gosh knows what “useful” reason). Last month, in at least one of the reports, it all came down to auto insurance. So, let’s assume that any given month is within 0.2% of being an accurate representation for that month (somehow, I feel I’m generous). Then it is at 2.4% annualized. So if we are centered around 2.5% (or 0.2% per month), then we could easily see a month with no inflation that annualizes to “problem solved.” While I believe on-shoring, near-shoring, geopolitical inflation, and the realization that we need to build out traditional and new energy sources, etc., will be inflationary, I would have to bet on seeing what would now be considered a surprise (a month where inflation data looks really good), especially given the current levels of expectations. One big fear I have about remaining bearish, is that not only would I not be surprised to see some good inflation data before the June meeting, but also I would be shocked if we didn’t. More about measurement and reporting than any real change in the underlying inflation rate.

• Carry. Yes, the path to hell is paved with carry (or interest), but it is real. The back-up in yields provides more protection. While I’m constantly aware that selling can beget more selling (see my equity concerns), the case for “buying the dip” in bonds is stronger. More yield. Interest coming in every month that can be re-invested. Less inversion, making the decision between 2s and 10s more complicated even for “yield hogs” who focus more on yield than duration.

• “No Bounce” and “American Exceptionalism” have become so consensus that it wouldn’t take much to tip the apple cart and put some level of fear about the state of the economy back on the table. I think earnings, and more importantly outlooks, may paint that picture for us.

I am worried about “faux” liquidity, even in the Treasury market. Electronic trading and a multitude of platforms tend to make liquidity appear more abundant than it really is. There aren’t 50 people sitting on the bid. There are 10, they just happen to all put them on 5 platforms, assuming they can yank the bid in time. There are really only 5 buyers, the other 5 just “see” them buying, so are along for the ride hoping to scalp some money and thinking they can pull their bids if necessary. That is why we get “air pockets” in pricing and will continue to do so. Positioning is better than it was (not everyone is long), but this “gap” risk is real – in both directions.

I like the 2-year at 5% and am “tolerant” of 10s at 4.6%.

Credit

Credit spreads for me are now largely just a proxy for equites. Yes CDX, credit spreads, and even high yield held their own on Friday amidst the debacle of an equity market, but that will be difficult to sustain.

I see no fundamental problems in credit, but it is difficult to remain bearish on equities and like credit. Also, the aforementioned “faux” liquidity is even more obvious in credit markets and creates far more gap risk. While that gap risk is usually somewhat symmetric, I think the gap risk to much wider is higher than the risk to a gap tighter. Still like 65-70 as range on CDX.

Geopolitical Base Case

Academy Securities has sent a lot out on the current situation in the Middle East. We’ve done what we can with our team of retired Generals and Admirals. Not just via written word (please see the “new” Daily Brief that we’ve been sending on Bloomberg), but also through more video calls than I can keep track of.

Even with their expertise, there is a range of “error” or “doubt” centered around “what has happened” let alone “what might happen.”

There have been some fast and furious discussions about deterrence and General (ret.) Ashley highlighted this Rand publication – Understanding Deterrence from 2018. Academy’s game theory centric piece – Geopolitical Chicken – is worth reading if you haven’t already.

Anyways, my base case is:

• Iran’s attack on Israel was not just symbolic. They planned to cause damage and are really concerned that they didn’t. I’m agreeing with the argument that you send “a handful” of drones/missiles (all of the lowest quality) if you want to ensure that they don’t get through. Sending 100s with a range of capabilities, was an actual attack that failed. Others make the case that it was symbolic and designed to be destroyed en route. I find that argument less plausible, hence, not my base case.

• Therefore, much like Russia, they have to recalculate their war effort. If the attack was somewhere between Fail and Epic Fail, you need to rethink your strategy. It is far too early for them to have understood what went wrong, let alone how to “correct” it, so of course they will downplay the Israeli attack on Iranian soil. You cannot afford to have a second failed attack. You might convince the world that you launched a “second symbolic” attack, but that’s a stretch of the imagination.

Therefore, my base case is that Iran is trying to figure out how to attack again, which may take some time, and a lot could change between now and then, but the current “quiet” is more about a failed attack than any meaningful de-escalation.

That may or may not be your base case, and even by working so closely with our Geopolitical Intelligence Group, you can find support for a range of “base cases,” but this is my working assumption. This means that I think possible shocks are still on the table. From Hedging Geopolitical Risk I think any shock will be bad for equities, temporarily good for bonds (but fade that quickly), and good for oil.

Bottom Line

There is very little I can find in equities. I’m not even “loving” long China (for a trade) versus short Nasdaq 100 (though I’d be remiss to point out for the past 3 months, FXI is up 10.8% while QQQ is down 1.4%). Remember, I think that as time goes by, more people will question whether slower sales into China are a function of problems with the Chinese economy or part of a broader strategy to suppress sales of Western brands in favor of domestic brands – The Threat of Made by China 2025.

• I still own energy and commodities but biased towards owning the equities (not the underlying commodities). It is interesting that the equities (looking at XLE) did so well on Friday. Maybe reduce some positions here, but this is my favorite sector. Iran seems unlikely to respond soon, given my base case, and my bet is that we see some signals of a slowing economy emerge from earnings calls.
• Neutral to mildly bullish Treasuries. There, I’ve done it. I’ve flipped. For now, buy some Treasuries. Stick to a 4.45% to 4.6% band on 10s. This is for a “trade” rather than a fundamental shift. If there is any market where deep out of the money options make sense, it could be here, as faux liquidity makes me fear a “flash crash” type of scenario. If this “bull case” sounds tepid, it is because it is tepid, but I’ve flip-flopped here to the bull side (again, for a trade, tepidly, and acknowledging the risk of a gap to much higher yields).
• Credit. Moderately bearish, based primarily on having a bearish outlook on equities. I don’t see fundamental issues, but that doesn’t matter for the next 10 bps on IG credit. Rising Treasury yields have helped credit spreads (got the higher yield on IG and even High Yield without having to demand wider spreads). If I’m correct and Treasuries bounce, then spreads are likely to feel a little bit of pain as you see a “flight to quality” (as opposed to a “flight to safety”).

Hopefully, by the time you read this report it is still relevant in a world where countries don’t adhere to a policy of attacking only during U.S. trading hours!

Good luck navigating this and please feel free to use Academy’s resources, as we as a firm are at your disposal!

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/21/2024 - 13:25

"You Are Quite Openly Jewish": London Police Under Fire For Confrontation With Man Near Anti-Israeli March

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The London police are under fire this week for threatening to arrest a man wearing a kippah near a pro-Palestinian march.

Officers inform Gideon Falter, head of the Campaign Against Antisemitism watchdog, that he was “antagonizing” the protesters by being “openly Jewish” near such a march. He was told that, if he tried to cross the street while being “openly Jewish,” he would be arrested for breach of the peace.

In the video, one police officer said: “You are quite openly Jewish, this is a pro-Palestinian march, I’m not accusing you of anything but I’m worried about the reaction to your presence.”

Another officer then added later: “You will be escorted out of this area so you can go about your business, go where you want freely or, if you choose to remain here, because you are causing a breach of peace with all these other people, you will be arrested.”

Falter was also told that being openly Jewish near such a march was “antagonizing”.

“You are quite openly Jewish. This is a pro-Palestinian march. I am not accusing you of anything, but I am worried about the reaction to your presence.”

Enough is enough. It is time for a major change.

On Saturday 27th April — the next anti-Israel march — we are asking you,… pic.twitter.com/lfJr7UZnif

— Campaign Against Antisemitism (@antisemitism) April 18, 2024

Activists have long protested the dangers of “driving while black” in prompting stops by police and threats of arrest. Falter appears to have established a danger of “walking while Jewish” in London.

The Metropolitan Police later apologized, but had to issue a second apology after saying in a now deleted statement that

“In recent weeks we’ve seen a new trend emerge, with those opposed to the main protests appearing along the route to express their views. The fact that those who do this often film themselves while doing so suggests they must know that their presence is provocative, that they’re inviting a response and that they’re increasing the likelihood of an altercation.”

Calling an openly Jewish man “provocative” only reaffirmed the original statements made by the officers.

As a result, the police had to issue a new statement, which said that the previous one had “been removed. We apologize for the offense it caused.”

What is equally disturbing is the threat to arrest a man who was doing nothing wrong based on his identity.

These threats were being made as protesters were hurling abuses at him because he is Jewish.

Notably, the United Kingdom has embraced a wide array of criminalized speech, arresting people for hateful or denigrating comments made against groups or individuals.

A man was convicted for sending a tweet while drunk referring to dead soldiers. Another was arrested for an anti-police t-shirt. Another was arrested for calling the Irish boyfriend of his ex-girlfriend a “leprechaun.” Yet another was arrested for singing “Kung Fu Fighting.” A teenager was arrested for protesting outside of a Scientology center with a sign calling the religion a “cult.”

We also discussed the arrest of a woman who was praying to herself near an abortion clinic. English courts have seen criminalized “toxic ideologies” as part of this crackdown on free speech.

I have opposed those laws.

Yet, this incident illustrates the arbitrary enforcement of such laws. The police simply ignored the anti-Semitic comments being leveled at Falter and confronted him on being openly Jewish. 

That is not to say that I favor the enforcement of criminal speech laws. Rather, it shows the added danger of such laws in their selective enforcement.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/21/2024 - 12:50

Is There A Road-Map For What's Ahead?

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via Substack,

One of our primary survival traits is the ability to anticipate the future to avoid threats and reap higher yields. We seek a vantage point to view the road ahead, or even better a road map to what's ahead.

Is there a road map to what's ahead?  An enormous amount of research and projections are issued daily, proposing answers to the question: what happens next?

In my view, a good starting point is to recall that there are critical differences between open systems and closed systems. A clock is a closed system, and so its functions are predictable.  An ecosystem is an open system, and so predictions are contingent on an unknowably large number of potential changes in inputs, processes and feedback: new invasive species may arrive and displace native species, predators might be decimated by a new disease, etc.

But even open systems operate according to principles we can discern, and so they are not entirely unpredictable or chaotic. For example, when a keystone species is wiped out, the entire ecosystem collapses.

The immense powers of modern technology, engineering, cheap energy and mass media have created an illusory aura of human agency, that we can control our future in the same way we control machinery. This aura has also created a sense that human leaders or elites control our world with god-like powers of precision. This too is an illusion, as the contingencies, forces, feedbacks and second-order effects of open systems are beyond the control of any human leadership.

Consider the collapse of marriage and birthrates globally; leaders recognize the threat this poses and have tried to reverse the tide, with little effect.  Some propose that these dynamics are the result of secret agendas to reduce the human populace, but the causal links required by this theory are not persuasive: people don't abandon marriage and raising a family lightly, and there are many factors at work: mating, marriage and having children is an open system, and demographics can't be dialed up or down at will.

So what road maps do we have for inherently unpredictable and not entirely controllable open systems?

One is the cycles of human history, which reflect that our Wetware 1.0 instantiated around 200,000 years ago leads us to respond in a very limited number of ways to threats and windfalls. I've often recommended the book Global Crisis: War, Climate Change and Catastrophe in the Seventeenth Century as evidence that the present has many similarities to the 1600s, which was beset by climate change, scarcities, wars and political conflicts.

Another is how leaders and populaces respond economically to scarcities and threats.

Yet another is human psychology, which maps how we respond to scarcities and threats via denial, magical thinking, cognitive biases, etc.

A fourth map is based on cultural and sociological dynamics embedded in communities, tribes and nation-states.

Let's take a brief look at each of the three, all of which are worthy of entire volumes.

My colleague Gordon Long published this road map of how economic-financial leaders respond to the stagnation of growth: Gordon calls the entwined trajectories Monetary Malpractice and Moral Malady: financial deceptions (low inflation, etc.) lead to distortions which then generate delusions: our economy can grow forever, as there are no limits on our powers.

This path is paralleled by a decline in ethics, as the deceptions and distortions require misinformation as a means to manipulation (securities no longer marked to market, etc.) which leads to malfeasance, mispricing (of risk) and malinvestment.

These two dynamics generate moral hazard (the disconnection of risk and consequence), unintended consequences (system fragility) and dysfunctional markets (bubble economies, etc.) The end state is instability, failure and collapse, as the ethical and factual foundations of economic decision-making have been gutted to protect the status quo.

The irony is striking: to save us from any sacrifice, we undermine the system so it veers into instability and collapse, generating extremes of sacrifice.

A similar destination appears in this chart of the psychology of collapse: we avoid the pain of sacrifice and convince ourselves that something or other will magically create a secure future without us having to take responsibility or make sacrifices. In the current era, this something is technology: AI will do all the work, etc.

As pressures mount, we focus on short-term needs, because we must do so and also because the shorter term is all we can control. We assure ourselves and others that we can collectively resolve all threats as we've done so in the recent past (i.e. recency bias): we've got top people working on it, top people.

Since we haven't changed either inputs or processes, the system careens into collapse.

A 2021 article in Foreign Affairs magazine outlined the sociological factors that guide our collective responses to large-scale threats, crises and challenges: The Threat Reflex: Why Some Societies Respond to Danger Better Than Others (Michele Gelfand)

"The Greek historian Herodotus, in his travels across the world in the fifth century BC, was the first to observe the opposing tendencies of societies toward either order or permissiveness. He singled out the Persian Empire for its openness to foreign ideas and practices: “There is no nation which so readily adopts foreign customs as the Persians. Thus, they have taken the dress of the Medes, considering it superior to their own; and in war they wear the Egyptian breastplate.”

By contrast, he described the Egyptians as having very strong norms, especially about cleanliness, religion, and respect for authority. Two centuries later, the Greek historian Polybius contrasted Roman discipline, order, and rationality with Celtic impetuosity, chaos, and passion on the battlefield. These ancient writers had stumbled on one of the most important ways in which human groups varied—by the strength of their social norms.

It wasn’t until the late 1960s that social science took account of these essential differences. The American anthropologist Pertti Pelto introduced the terms 'tight' and 'loose' in his work on underlying cultural codes.

A country that closely observes and upholds social norms can be considered to be 'tight.' People in those societies don’t tolerate deviance and generally follow the rules. 'Loose' countries celebrate individual creativity and freedom. They are lax in maintaining rules and customs but very tolerant of new ideas and ways of being.

Tightness and looseness confer advantages and disadvantages to societies. Tight cultures exemplify order and discipline. Societies with tight cultures tend to consist of individuals who are more attentive to rules, have greater impulse control, and are more concerned about making mistakes. They have higher uniformity--even to the point where their clocks are more synchronized on city streets.

Loose cultures have less order: people have lower impulse control and suffer from greater levels of debt, obesity, alcoholism, and drug abuse. But countries with loose cultures also boast much higher levels of openness: they are more tolerant of people of different races, religions, and sexual orientations; are more entrepreneurial; and have much higher levels of creativity.

But what explains these variations in social norms? Tight cultures and loose ones don’t share any obvious characteristics, such as geography, language, religion, or traditions. GDP isn’t a factor, either: rich and poor countries abound in both categories. Japan, a rich country, and Pakistan, a poor one, have tight cultures; the rich United States has a loose one, as does the far poorer Brazil. Instead, the extent to which societies have been exposed to collective threats in part determines their relative tightness or looseness.

Tight cultures have grappled with more frequent natural disasters, a greater prevalence of disease, greater resource scarcity, higher population density, and territorial invasions. Groups exposed to frequent dangers need stricter rules to coordinate to survive. Groups that have experienced fewer threats can afford to be permissive.

Tightening during times of threat is an important adaptation that helps groups coordinate and survive. Populist authoritarian leaders hijack, amplify, and manipulate threat signals and then promise to return their countries to a tight order.  Understanding tight-loose dynamics can help countries better anticipate and manage these challenges.

The sudden displacement of long-standing regimes can unleash extreme disorder that allows populist autocrats to step into the breach and promise to replace chaos with tightness. History repeatedly shows that chaos pushes people toward a yearning for tightness. This psychology leaves populations in places where norms have collapsed vulnerable to extremists.

What I call 'tight-loose ambidexterity': the ability to tighten when there is an objective threat and loosen when that threat recedes."

As we've seen, democracies can respond in a highly authoritarian fashion to threats, "tightening" legal, social, financial and political controls. Though the article doesn't mention this, I discern a feedback loop in this tightening: as events seem to escape this tightening of centralized control, the leadership instinctively increases the tightening, seeking to impose even greater control of the populace and economy.

This tightening eventually crosses thresholds and generates second-order effects: people sense the restrictions are not helping resolve whatever threats exist, they're adding a new threat to civil liberties, social mobility / agency and economic freedoms, all of which are the foundational dynamics of an open, adaptable society.

Globally, nation-states appear to be exhibiting elements of all four road maps. Few seem to be exhibiting 'tight-loose ambidexterity' or a willingness to impose necessary sacrifices first on those most able to make sacrifices, i.e. their elites.  This does not bode well in terms of changing inputs and processes consequentially enough to change the trajectory toward instability. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/21/2024 - 11:40

US To Sanction Entire IDF Battalion Over Alleged Human Rights Abuses

Axios is reporting what marks an unexpected and unprecedented development in US-Israel relations: the Biden administration will in the coming days announce sanctions against an entire battalion of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).

Three US officials told the outlet that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will unveil the punitive measures against the IDF’s "Netzah Yehuda" battalion for its allegedly committing human rights abuses against Palestinians in the West Bank. It is an ultra orthodox brigade founded in 1999 in coordination with rabbis who sought to allow easier entry into the military of a religious community which typically rejects national service.

Soldiers of the Neztah Yehuda Battalion in training. Source: Flash90

The controversial battalion has also served in Gaza Strip operations, as well as in the north of Israel. The Times of Israel has highlighted, "The battalion has been at the center of several controversies in the past connected to right-wing extremism and violence against Palestinians, notably including the 2022 death of Omar As’ad, a 78-year-old Palestinian-American who died after being detained, handcuffed, blindfolded, and later abandoned in near-freezing conditions by soldiers of the battalion."

Blinken on Friday appeared to confirm that the sanctions are imminent. "You can expect to see them in the days ahead," Blinken said in response to a question about potential Leahy law violations. The 1997 law bans the possibility of US foreign aid or DOD training programs going to foreign entities found to have committed human rights abuses.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu immediately blasted the coming US move in a Saturday message on X, writing:

"The IDF must not be sanctioned!" he wrote on X. "I’ve been working in recent weeks against the sanctioning of Israeli citizens, including in my conversations with the American administration."

"At a time when our soldiers are fighting terrorist monsters, the intention to issue sanctions against a unit in the IDF is the height of absurdity and a moral low," he added, committing to fight the move."

President Biden is under immense and growing pressure going into November, as many Democrats are increasingly outraged at the soaring civilian death toll and near daily headlines of atrocities among families in Gaza. Yet all along he's resisted so much as attaching conditions to defense aid, and is reportedly even considering another $1BN+ weapons package for Tel Aviv.

According to Axios, "The sanctions will ban the battalion and its members from receiving any kind of U.S. military assistance or training, the sources said."

Other controversial police or military units which have long been accused of human rights violations are said by the US administration to have lately changed their behavior, and so none others will target of the new sanctions, Axios notes. According to more background on the Netzah Yehuda battalion: 

Over the years, the unit stationed in the West Bank became a destination for many "Hilltop Youth" — young radical right wing settlers who weren't accepted into any other combat unit in the IDF.

On Friday the US slapped a new round of sanctions on Israel's radical settler movement, this time targeting a pair of entities accused of fundraising for already sanctioned individuals.

#Israel’s military says it is unaware of any #US sanctions against one of its combat battalions, after media reported that Washington was planning such a step against the unit for alleged rights violations.https://t.co/Eg9hec5G25

— Al Arabiya English (@AlArabiya_Eng) April 21, 2024

"The Biden administration on Friday imposed sanctions on two entities accused of fundraising for extremist Israel settlers already sanctioned, as well as the founder of an organization whose members regularly assault Palestinians," Associated Press reported Friday.

Violence in the West Bank is at a high point as Israeli forces have been conducting large-scale raids, also in the wake of the murder of 14-year-old Israeli Binyamin Achimair. This weekend, 14 Palestinians have been reported killed after an Israeli security raid on Nur Shams refugee camp in the West Bank.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/21/2024 - 11:05



 

 

Hey, it’s been awhile since my last update, so I thought I would share some of the amazing progress we have made over the past three months.

To start with, the electric motor and batteries are in. It’s been quite a process, and as you can see above the car drives — and looks pretty quick.

We got to this point via a series of new installations, additions, updates, and improvements: The key installed components include the electric motor, the batteries, updated software, dashboard gauges, transmission, and charge port.

~~~

Let’s start with the Fellten motor: 440 HP of EV power:

A better angle from underneath shows the size of this monster motor relative to the chassis:

Some of the wiring connections (Orange brackets) and Cooling (Orange Tubes) ready to be attached and installed:

Reverse view:

Fellten kit gauges really match the original OE look. It’s impressive, a mix of analog and digital displays.

From left to right the new gauges read:

EV Battery and Motor Temperature – monitors temps for the EV battery and motor/inverter. The VCU is monitoring temperatures and turning on pumps and fans to keep things cool. The VCU and BMS will reduce power before overheating.

EV Battery Level Percentage – Fuel meter: How much charge is left in the EV battery

Kilowatts – Throttle up! kW gauge monitor increases in current, and braking shows regen in action.

Speedometer – Miles per hour

12V Battery Percentage and EV Battery Voltage – 12V battery includes normal car items (Wipers, Radio, etc.)

The entire gauge cluster is very consistent with the original 1980s-era 911s.

Transmission: I wanted to keep the original stickshift, despite only having one forward gear. So here it is, Park, Neutral, Reverse, and Drive:

 

Of course, I wanted to use the original gas filler as the charge port:

 

The biggest changes have not only taken this from 210 HP to 440 HP but also shifted the weight distribution from the traditional Porsche 39/61 front/rear to something much closer to 50/50, and with a lower center of gravity.

Lots of little tweaks still left to do, including updating the suspension so the car can manage the extra 300 pounds of battery weight. Mapping the software and optimizing it for this car is also going to take some work, The guys at Moment Motors have been great.

I wonder if I can find some fatter rubber — especially out back — to help manage the extra weight and HP…

 

 

 

 

Previously:
Update 2: Porsche 911 EV Conversion (February 4, 2024)

Update: Electrifying A Classic 911 (May 21, 2023)

Electrifying Classic Cars (September 4, 2022)

1983 Porsche 911SC Coupe – EV? (September 16, 2022)

1988 M491 Porsche 911 Cabrio (January 21, 2024)

 

 

Additional random photos:

 

      

The post Update 3: EV Conversion at 90% appeared first on The Big Picture.

As of December 2023, looking at the "dot plot", most FOMC participants expected between 2 and 4 rate cuts in 2024:
As of Dec 2023 Meeting25 bp Rate Cuts FOMC
Members
No Change2 One Rate Cut1 Two Rate Cuts5 Three Rate Cuts6 Four Rate Cuts4 More than Four1
As of the March 2024 meeting, FOMC participants were down to 2 to 3 rate cuts in 2024:

As of Mar 2024 Meeting25 bp Rate Cuts FOMC
Members
No Change2 One Rate Cut2 Two Rate Cuts5 Three Rate Cuts9 Four Rate Cuts1
Most market participants expect between 1 and 2 rate cuts this year, with the first cut in September.  Here are a couple analyst views:
From BofA:

[W]e revised our Fed forecasts in response to the upside surprise in the March inflation data. We now expect the Fed to start cutting in December rather than June, and we still think cuts will proceed at a quarterly cadence. Importantly, we did not simply push our projected cutting cycle out by two quarters. We removed the June and September 2024 cuts entirely from our forecast, raising the terminal rate by 50bp to 3.5-3.75%.

From Goldman Sachs:

The FOMC was already narrowly divided on its three-cut baseline for 2024, and we think it will now need to see the string of three firmer inflation prints from January to March balanced by a series of softer prints in subsequent months.

We continue to expect cuts at a quarterly pace after July, which now implies two cuts in 2024 in July and November.

How Climate Change Narrative Is Preventing Africa From Modernizing And Gaining Prosperity

Authored by Katie Spence via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Under a blazing Kenyan sun, elderly women toil on their hands and knees in the reddish-brown clay, separating the choking weeds from the small, green shoots of a finger millet crop. The women are barehanded and barefoot, and they work from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. or 6 p.m. at night. Clearing a small field takes three days.

“A combine harvester could replace 1,000 people,” Jusper Machogu, an agricultural engineer and farmer in Kenya, told The Epoch Times. “It makes me sad whenever I see my mom wading through millet. We have women kneeling down and uprooting weeds throughout the farm all day, and it’s sunny. Those machines would change our lives.”

(Illustration by The Epoch Times, Getty Images, Shutterstock)

But farmers like Mr. Machogu can’t get a combine harvester. Even if they could afford one from the meager salaries they make selling crops, Western nations’ climate policies prevent Africans from achieving what the West already has—modernization and prosperity.

In November 2023, to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use, the President of the Republic of Kenya, William Ruto, cut subsidies for fertilizer, fuel, and electricity for the 2023/2024 financial year. He did so at the behest of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a financial agency of the United Nations (U.N.).

“I come from a community where people use cow dung to fertilize their farms,” Mr. Machogu said. “And the reason for that is because last year, the government of Kenya decided that they were going to listen to what the IMF was telling them. It was telling them to end fertilizer subsidies.

“You can imagine how that’s going to impact farmers. The fertilizer prices went up by almost two times. We have very poor people around here. So, if I was [purchasing] 20 kilos for my farm, I’m forced to get 10 kilos now.

“Most people have gone back to using cow dung, which is not a good nitrogenous fertilizer for their crop. You can’t compare urea, with a 46 percent nitrogenous content, to cow dung, with only four percent. It doesn’t make sense.”

Mr. Machogu said the IMF and the Western nations that embrace climate policies for Africa are engaging in neocolonialism, or “climate colonialism.”

And it’s no different than past colonialism, the likes of which liberal elites, such as former President Barack Obama, have condemned.

“Colonialism skewed Africa’s economy and robbed people of their capacity to shape their own destiny,” President Obama said while in Ethiopia in 2015. “Eventually, liberation movements grew. And 50 years ago, in a great burst of self-determination, Africans rejoiced as foreign flags came down and your national flags went up.”

Two years earlier, in 2013, while in South Africa, President Obama warned a group of young African leaders about the consequences of Africa achieving Western parity.

A Samburu woman works to remove an invasive plant in Naibunga Upper Conservancy, Laikipia County, Kenya, on May 12, 2022. (Luis Tato/AFP via Getty Images)

“If everybody’s raising living standards to the point where everybody’s got a car, and everybody’s got air conditioning, everybody’s got a big house, well, the planet will boil over,” he said, “unless we find new ways of producing energy.”

The new climate colonialism is being driven by global entities such as the U.N., which says Africa should have energy, but due to climate change concerns, it should focus on wind and solar.

Calvin Beisner, founder and president of the Christian-based Cornwall Alliance, said currently “the most harmful policy” is that the IMF, World Bank, and agencies such as the U.S. Agency for International Development “refuse to do loans or other funding for coal, natural gas, or oil-based electric generating stations in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia and Latin America.”

It’s particularly damaging in Africa, he said.

Vijay Jayaraj, a research associate for the CO2 Coalition, said he grew up in India and witnessed the growth of India’s industrialization—courtesy of fossil fuels.

“In terms of economic development, energy is the foundational keystone,” he said.

“If you’re going to disrupt how people get energy—where and what quality of energy they receive—it will have an impact. Not just generally, in terms of the economy and the GDP, but also the household and individual level,” Mr. Jayaraj told The Epoch Times.

Climate Colonialism

Mr. Machogu criticized the U.N.’s 2023 Sustainable Development Goals for Africa, which he said were developed after U.N. employees went to Africa to study the issues facing the continent. From that expedition, U.N. employees came up with 17 “solutions.”

“They said that one of the problems is climate change,” Mr. Machogu said. “It doesn’t make sense to me because I come from Africa. We have far bigger problems—people sleeping hungry, very poor people around me. I’m more worried about that than I'll ever be worried about climate change.

“Every solution to [Africa’s] problems is centered around climate change. [The UN says to Africa] ‘If you’re going to end poverty, let’s end it in a way that we don’t impact our climate. If you’re going to have clean water, let’s do it in a way that will not be too bad for the climate.”

He said modern civilization has “four pillars of civilization”—steel, cement, plastic, and fertilizer.

“Without fossil fuels, we can’t produce these four pillars of civilization. Without fossil fuels, we don’t have energy. We must have fossil fuels. It’s how the West beat poverty.”

The U.N. Environment Programme’s (UNEP) current official position regarding Africa is to help it achieve modernization but to do so under strict environmental guidelines.

Notably, that includes increasing access to and reliance on wind and solar energy, encouraging countries within the continent to come together and talk about what’s worked and what hasn’t, “prioritizing emissions reductions from land degradation,” and developing a comprehensive framework for “Low Emissions Development.”

Camels weak from a lack of sustenance stand behind a salt water well as they migrate to find food near Mochesa in Nairobi, Kenya, on Dec. 9, 2021

Mr. Machogu said that, in layman’s terms, the U.N.’s policy boils down to “no fossil fuels for Africa,” which necessarily means no economic progress. Conversely, unrestricted access to fossil fuels could help pull Africa out of poverty.

“Let me speak for Africa because 60 percent of Africans rely on agriculture for their livelihood,” Mr. Machogu said. “We need fossil fuels for farm machinery. Despite the fact that the UN, the IMF, the World Bank, and all of these environmental organizations say solar and wind for Africa, we can’t electrify agriculture—if we did electrify, it would be a tiny percent.

“Right now, our access to farm machinery is very low. I think about four or five percent [of Africans have access], which is very low compared to places like China’s 75 percent, India’s 45 percent, and the U.S.’s 95 percent. Almost everything in U.S. agriculture is done by machines. So having access to farm machinery really would change our lives because it would amplify and expand our capabilities.”

In addition to needing fossil fuels for machines and access to loans to purchase them, Mr. Machogu said expanded irrigation, courtesy of fossil fuels, would benefit Africa.

“Africa is not all green,” he said. “We have other places that are very dry. So, one of the easiest ways we can end that is by irrigating our land, and we will irrigate our lands using pipes from fossil fuels."

Holding up a yellow plastic bucket and panning to his surrounding crops, Mr. Machogu said most Africans get water for crops by lugging it from wells. The further your crop is from the well, the more backbreaking and time-consuming the labor.

Finally, Mr. Machogu explained that urea use, a fertilizer made from ammonia and liquid carbon dioxide, is significantly lower in Africa, thanks, in part, to external pressure from entities like the IMF.

“Personally, we use the 40 kilos of nitrogenous fertilizer for one hectare of our land,” he said about his farm. “We have other people using 20 kilos. In other places, like Ethiopia, people use 16 kilos per hectare.

“Go to a place like the U.S., the West—which says Africa should not have access to fossil fuels—and it’s using 120 kilos [of nitrogenous fertilizer] per hectare. Europe uses 160–170 kilos per hectare, India uses 250 kilos per hectare, and China uses 360 kilos per hectare.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/21/2024 - 08:10

Biden To Withdraw Troops From Niger As Region Increasingly Turns To Russia

In what is simultaneously a humiliating setback for the Deep State and a welcome victory for noninterventionist American taxpayers, the White House on Friday announced that US military forces will be withdrawn from Niger over the coming months. The move comes after Niger's mid-March declaration that was ending its military cooperation with the United States.  

Following Niger's announcement, US military officials scrambled in vain to salvage the relationship. At stake: The $110 million Air Base 201, which the New York Times characterized as the Pentagon's "most strategic military asset in sub-Saharan Africa." Said to be a key base for counterterrorism, it was a major hub for drone operations in the region. 

Via Encyclopedia Britannica 

US-Niger relations took a major downturn with a July 2023 coup that toppled President Mohamed Bazoum in favor of a military junta. The new government was increasingly keen on Russia, something that triggered bitter complaints from US officials. Things deteriorated further when Western intelligence accused Niger of engaging in secret talks to give Iran access to its uranium.

In a March statement, junta spokesman Col. Maj. Amadou Abdramane said, "Niger regrets the intention of the American delegation to deny the sovereign Nigerien people the right to choose their partners and types of partnerships capable of truly helping them fight against terrorism."

Niger is kicking US troops out of the country and thousands protested to show their support.

Chanting “Down with American imperialism,” these protests follow the expulsion of French troops last year. pic.twitter.com/BQHYd1zTrA

— BreakThrough News (@BTnewsroom) April 16, 2024

The Russians may well take the keys to Air Base 201. Bringing an air-defense system with them, more than 100 Russian instructors arrived in the country last week. 

According to Russia’s state-owned news outlet Ria Novosti, the Russian personnel are part of Africa Corps, the new paramilitary structure intended to take the place of the Wagner group, the military company whose mercenaries and operations spread in Africa under the leadership of Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, who was killed in a plane crash last year. -New York Times

At public demonstrations, Nigeriens have been seen waving Russian flags and shouting slogans denouncing US imperialism. Russian flags have even become a trendy item to display in everyday life, emblematic of a major geopolitical transition. “The Russian flag has become a symbol of resistance in West Africa, affiliated with anti-West and anti-French attitudes,” Kyle Walter, research head at Logically, told the New York Times. 

Backers of Niger's ruling junta march alongside a car adorned with the Russian flag (Issifou Djibo/EPA via Shutterstock and New York Times)

Indeed, Niger isn't the only country in the Sahel region that's warming up to Russia. Burkina Faso and Mali have also sought President Putin's help in battling ISIS and Al Qaeda insurgents. As Andrew Korybko explained at Substack, the Pentagon is likely to pivot to Ivory Coast -- aka Cote D'Ivoire -- where its drones will be welcome at French bases. "A complementary presence in Senegal can’t be ruled out either but nothing will be decided until after its delayed presidential elections are held later this month," he added. 

There are approximately 1,100 US service members in Niger. In 2017, members of Congress were surprised to learn that soldiers and airmen had been deployed there. They found out in the worst possible way: After four US Army Special Forces soldiers were killed there after being ambushed by ISIS militants. 

The four soldiers killed in Niger in 2017: From left, SSGT Bryan Black, SGT La David Johnson, SSGT Dustin Wright, SSGT Jeremiah Johnson

Even uberhawk and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham had no idea. "I didn’t know there was 1,000 troops in Niger,” he said on Meet the Press. “They are going to brief us next week as to why they were there and what they were doing.”

Last October, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul introduced a bill that would force Biden to withdraw American forces from the country. “If we’re going to send someone’s son or daughter to a foreign country, if they are going to risk their life, Congress should vote on them being there,” Paul told Defense News. “They’re ruled by a military junta led by a guy that we trained in democracy training over here.” His bill was defeated by an 86-11 margin. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/21/2024 - 07:35

UK Physiotherapist Leaders Announce Goal To "Eradicate" Critics Of Gender Ideology From The Profession

Authored by Bryndis Blackadder via Reduxx,

The Chartered Society of Physiotherapy (CSP), which is the “professional body” and trade union which represents member physiotherapists in the UK, has launched its first “definitive position statement on transphobia” with the publication of its “position statement on transphobia.” The publication has sent a chill through the profession, as anonymous whistleblowers express concerns about censorship.

The “transphobia” statement describes the aim of “eradicating [transphobia] from our profession” by instructing members that they “must raise concerns about colleagues” if they think that the colleague’s “personal values, biases and beliefs” have led them to “discriminate” against others, with discrimination including “denying” someone’s “gender identity or refusing to accept it.”

The publication was accompanied by an announcement by the CSP declaring that the “Transphobia statement is a milestone for the profession.”

In unpublished internal memos provided to Reduxx by an anonymous member, the CSP vows to prevent its “channels being used to spread transphobia” and urges members to report colleagues and comments to the Corporate Comms Team. 

The published definitions were created following a consultation process announced by the “LGBTQIA+ voice and network of the Chartered Society of Physiotherapy, Definitions of Transphobia Working Group,” with a “Statement of Intent” in January of 2023.

After a year of deliberations, the CSP announced on X that it had adopted its first “definitive position statement on transphobia.”

Following dialogue involving our LGBTQIA+ Network and Equity, Diversity and Belonging committee, the CSP has adopted our first definitive position statement on transphobia https://t.co/jGqJ8Ry0It

— Chartered Society of Physiotherapy (@thecsp) April 11, 2024

Stephanie Land, chair of the CSP LGBTQIA+ network, thanked staff and members for their “efforts and emotional labour” invested in creating the “pivotal piece of work.”

The position statement attempts to define “transphobia” for the “safety of transgender members and transgender patients” and describes it as “complex” and stating: “There is no definitive list of transphobic behaviours, but it includes, for example, the questioning of a transgender person’s gender identity.”

Citing a definition by “TransActual” the statement goes on to say:

“The consequence of transphobia is that trans people struggle to live openly and comfortably in society. An ultimate outcome may be the erasure of trans people as a viable class of people. Transphobia includes, but is not limited to:

Attempting to remove trans people’s rights.

Misrepresenting trans people.

Abuse.

Systematically excluding trans people from discussions about issues that directly affect them.

Other forms of discrimination.

(Source: TransActual)”

Sarine Baz, chair of the CSP Equity, Diversity and Belonging committee, stated in the announcement that “transphobia,” as defined by the CSP, is “never acceptable” and that “’expressing negative attitudes or feelings towards transgender individuals, or other transphobic actions, can’t be tolerated.”  

The position statement lists CSP commitments with No.6 in the list describing the commitment for members to “show allyship by challenging transphobia outside the profession.” It also instructs member physiotherapists to take political stances, “including opposing so called “conversion therapy,” which has been under consultation in the UK for proposed new laws to enforce bans on “conversion therapy”  which, according to the BBC, “include practices aimed at transgender people.”

The CSP statement goes on to say that: “But in doing so we note the advice of the Equity, Diversity and Belonging Committee not to hold or take positions on the following issues: trans athletes, single sex services outside healthcare or gender recognition legislation.”

The Equity, Diversity and Belonging committee has members who specialize in sports and sex-specific sporting injuries and members who focus on the specific experiences of black and ethnic minority people.

The Position Statement also declares that it will censor comments from members and the public on forums where members discuss issues, stating “We will not allow transphobic comments to be published on the CSP website, on iCSP, in our e-bulletins or in Frontline.” 

While aiming to encourage “the development of safe spaces for education around transgender issues. Discussing discrimination can be challenging and people should feel safe to discuss how we address all forms of oppression … centred on the experience of those who are oppressed.”

The Position Statement includes reference to the new Health and Care Professions Council (HCPC) standards of conduct which come into force in September 2024. The HCPC regulates registered physiotherapists who are members of the CSP. The provisions quoted include that members must “take action to ensure that your personal values, biases and beliefs do not lead you to discriminate against service users, carers or colleagues.” 

Reduxx has obtained unpublished internal CSP documents circulated to members, warning that “[the CSP] are seeking to prevent negative and transphobic voices pre-empting this statement” and that they alerted LGBTQIA+ Network members “via WhatsApp” so that members can “emotionally prepare” for the launch.

The briefing paper states that the CSP is “taking a position on trans rights” because it stands for “human rights and against all forms of discrimination and hatred” and states that “transphobia in the workplace and within healthcare is damaging and destructive for transgender and non-binary people… it is a barrier to the culture of safety needed to progress physiotherapy into an equitable, diverse and inclusive way.”

The paper also notes that there is “no legal or consensus definition of transphobia,” leading the CSP to have to develop one on their own.

Describing what action the CSP will take against the undefined transphobia, it states it will “challenge transphobia outside the profession” and the Equity, Diversity and Belonging Committee “will actively monitor progress.”

In a question on whether “transphobic members” would be penalized, the CSP says it is not the arbiter of professional complaints, and that the HCPC will instead decide on complaints. However, the updated CSP voluntary code will “inform that work” of the HCPC in making their judgement on complaints.

Members are told that the CSP commits to “preventing our channels being used to spread transphobia. We do not monitor posts in real time but will remove or edit comments which do not conform to the position statement as soon as we can. If you have concerns about anything you see on our channels please let the Corporate Comms Team (if you are staff) or [EMAIL] (if you are a member) as soon as possible.”

Members were instructed that following the statement “on 11 April supportive commentary on the statement, wider commentary showing allyship on trans issues, will be acceptable.”

When hypothetically asked how the CSP members should manage social media commentary they are advised that “there is a risk that people outside the profession may choose to get involved online… this may include very challenging behaviour which could be distressing.” They are told “do not get into protracted exchanges with those who don’t agree with us. Instead put our positive messages, without reference to the negatives, in order to counter them.”

After that, they are told to report hateful comments to the website administrators, social media companies and the police. 

CSP’s position statement garnered much attention on social media from those concerned with gender ideology’s impact on women’s rights. Notably, Maya Forstater, who won an Employment Appeal Tribunal that found that her “gender critical beliefs” were protected under UK equality law, highlighted her concerns with the new CSP Policy.

“Have you consulted a lawyer before producing this? Ask them about Meade v WCC & Social Work England,” Forstater asked, pointing to a recent case judgment in 2024 which found that a social worker named Rachel Meade was unlawfully harassed and discriminated against in the workplace by her employer on the basis of her “gender critical beliefs.”

The CSP statement on transphobia was published one day after the much-anticipated Cass Review which “demolished” the NHS’s “entire gender treatment model” and highlighted ideological guidelines on the discussion of “transgender” issues having detrimentally impacted health care professional’s behaviors and practices.

Reduxx is your source of pro-woman, pro-child safeguarding news and commentary. We’re 100% independent! Support our mission by joining our Patreon, or consider making a one-time donation.

Bryndís Blackadder is a contributing journalist at Reduxx with a focus on free speech and the law. She lives in Scotland, where she enjoys creating documentaries, multimedia art, and advocating for human rights.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/21/2024 - 07:00

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures:

• ‘Water is more valuable than oil’: the corporation cashing in on America’s drought: In an unprecedented deal, a private company purchased land in a tiny Arizona town – and sold its water rights to a suburb 200 miles away. Local residents fear the agreement has ‘opened Pandora’s box.’ (The Guardian)

• Why don’t rich people eat anymore? Extreme dieting is the latest way for the mega-rich to signal their wealth and status. (Dazed)

• What the Upper-Middle-Class Left Doesn’t Get About Inflation: Liberal politicians and economists don’t seem to recognize the everyday harms of rising costs. (The Atlantic) see also Why Better Times (and Big Raises) Haven’t Cured the Inflation Hangover: Frustrated by higher prices, many Pennsylvanians with fresh pay raises and solid finances report a sense of insecurity lingering from the pandemic. (New York Times)

• A brief, weird history of brainwashing: L. Ron Hubbard, Operation Midnight Climax, and stochastic terrorism—the race for mind control changed America forever. (MIT Technology Review)

• Time is a Thief. Time is slippery. Don’t waste yours. With most things in life, eventually, there will be a ‘last time’–we just often don’t know when it will be. Sometimes, we don’t realize it until after the fact. As my children grow, the “last times” are coming at me with a hastening speed. In light of this, I feel intensity in my need to savor and be present. (Finding Joy)

• The Southern Gap: In the American South, an oligarchy of planters enriched itself through slavery. Pervasive underdevelopment is their legacy. (Aeon)

• Banned in the USA: Narrating the Crisis: This report provides data, alongside a comprehensive narrative of the censorship crisis affecting public schools. It shows the nuance of the current moment and damage that occurs when stories—compassionate, reflective, educational, and entertaining—are restricted or removed on the basis of fear, intimidation, or bigotry. (Pen America)

• Interview with a 70-Year-Old Sober Person: Jerry Stahl “I have come to realize that everybody on the planet is recovering from something. And deserves our compassion. It’s pretty much the human condition. All our secrets are the same.” (The Small Bow)

• Global heating pushes coral reefs towards worst planet-wide mass bleaching on record: The percentage of reef areas experiencing bleaching-level heat stress is increasing by about 1% a week, scientists say. (The Guardian) see also Great Barrier Reef suffering ‘most severe’ coral bleaching on record as footage shows damage 18 metres down: Marine researcher ‘devastated’ by widespread event that is affecting coral species usually resistant to bleaching. (The Guardian)

• Verified pro-Nazi X accounts flourish under Elon Musk: An NBC News review identified 150 verified “Premium” accounts that have posted or amplified pro-Nazi content. (NBC News)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Ashish Shah, Co-Head and CIO of Public Investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management: He joined GS as a partner in 2018, and previously served as global co-head and CIO of Fixed Income + Liquidity Solutions. His group manages $2.3 trillion in client assets.

Hawks Fly Higher For Longer Than Doves

Source: Yardeni Research

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

~~~

Still on book leave . . .  but I am past the midway point and making good progress!

 

The post 10 Sunday Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

• Single Family Starts Up 22% Year-over-year in March; Multi-Family Starts Down Sharply

• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.19 million SAAR in March

• NMHC: "Apartment Market Continues to Loosen"

• 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in March; California Home Sales Down 4.4% YoY in March

• Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in March

• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

The key reports scheduled for this week are the advance estimate of Q1 GDP, March New Home sales and March Personal Income and Outlays.

For manufacturing, the April Richmond and Kansas City manufacturing surveys will be released.

----- Monday, April 22nd -----
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March. This is a composite index of other data.

----- Tuesday, April 23rd -----
10:00 AM: New Home Sales for March from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

The consensus is for 670 thousand SAAR, up from 662 thousand in February.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for April.
 

----- Wednesday, April 24th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for March from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 2.0% increase in durable goods orders.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for March (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

----- Thursday, April 25th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 210 thousand initial claims, down from 212 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2024 (Advance estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.1% annualized in Q1, down from 3.4% in Q4.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for March. The consensus is for a 2.0% decrease in the index.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for April.

----- Friday, April 26th -----
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays, March 2024. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%.  PCE prices are expected to be up 2.6% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.7% YoY.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for April). The consensus is for a reading of 77.9.

Peter Schiff: Printing Money Is Not the Cure for Cononavirus



In his most recent podcast, Peter Schiff talked about coronavirus and the impact that it is having on the markets. Earlier this month, Peter said he thought the virus was just an excuse for stock market woes. At the time he believed the market was poised to fall anyway. But as it turns out, coronavirus has actually helped the US stock market because it has led central banks to pump even more liquidity into the world financial system. All this means more liquidity — central banks easing. In fact, that is exactly what has already happened, except the new easing is taking place, for now, outside the United States, particularly in China.” Although the new money is primarily being created in China, it is flowing into dollars — the dollar index is up — and into US stocks. Last week, US stock markets once again made all-time record highs. In fact, I think but for the coronavirus, the US stock market would still be selling off. But because of the central bank stimulus that has been the result of fears over the coronavirus, that actually benefitted not only the US dollar, but the US stock market.” In the midst of all this, Peter raises a really good question. The primary economic concern is that coronavirus will slow down output and ultimately stunt economic growth. Practically speaking, the world would produce less stuff. If the virus continues to spread, there would be fewer goods and services produced in a market that is hunkered down. Why would the Federal Reserve respond, or why would any central bank respond to that by printing money? How does printing more money solve that problem? It doesn’t. In fact, it actually exacerbates it. But you know, everybody looks at central bankers as if they’ve got the solution to every problem. They don’t. They don’t have the magic wand. They just have a printing press. And all that creates is inflation.” Sometimes the illusion inflation creates can look like a magic wand. Printing money can paper over problems. But none of this is going to fundamentally fix the economy. In fact, if central bankers were really going to do the right thing, the appropriate response would be to drain liquidity from the markets, not supply even more.” Peter explained how the Fed was originally intended to create an “elastic” money supply that would expand or contract along with economic output. Today, the money supply only goes in one direction — that’s up. The economy is strong, print money. The economy is weak, print even more money.” Of course, the asset that’s doing the best right now is gold. The yellow metal pushed above $1,600 yesterday. Gold is up 5.5% on the year in dollar terms and has set record highs in other currencies. Because gold is rising even in an environment where the dollar is strengthening against other fiat currencies, that shows you that there is an underlying weakness in the dollar that is right now not being reflected in the Forex markets, but is being reflected in the gold markets. Because after all, why are people buying gold more aggressively than they’re buying dollars or more aggressively than they’re buying US Treasuries? Because they know that things are not as good for the dollar or the US economy as everybody likes to believe. So, more people are seeking out refuge in a better safe-haven and that is gold.” Peter also talked about the debate between Trump and Obama over who gets credit for the booming economy – which of course, is not booming.

We are living in crazy times. I have a hard time believing that most of the general public is not awake, but in reality, they are. We've never seen anything like this; I mean not even under Obama during the worst part of the Great Recession." Now the Fed is desperately trying to keep interest rates from rising. The problem is that it's a much bigger debt bubble this time around , and the Fed is going to have to blow a lot more air into it to keep it inflated. The difference is this time it's not going to work." It looks like the Fed did another $104.15 billion of Not Q.E. in a single day. The Fed claims it's only temporary. But that is precisely what Bernanke claimed when the Fed started QE1. Milton Freedman once said, "Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program." The same applies to Q.E., or whatever the Fed wants to pretend it's doing. Except this is not QE4, according to Powell. Right. Pumping so much money out, and they are accusing China of currency manipulation ? Wow! Seriously! Amazing! Dump the U.S. dollar while you still have a chance. Welcome to The Atlantis Report. And it is even worse than that, In addition to the $104.15 billion of "Not Q.E." this past Thursday; the FED added another $56.65 billion in liquidity to financial markets the next day on Friday. That's $160.8 billion in two days!!!! in just 48 hours. That is more than 2 TIMES the highest amount the FED has ever injected on a monthly basis under a Q.E. program (which was $80 billion per month) Since this isn't QE....it will be really scary on what they are going to call Q.E. Will it twice, three times, four times, five times what this injection per month ! It is going to be explosive since it takes about 60 to 90 days for prices to react to this, January should see significant inflation as prices soak up the excess liquidity. The question is, where will the inflation occur first . The spike in the repo rate might have a technical explanation: a misjudgment was made in the Fed's money market operations. Even so, two conclusions can be drawn: managing the money markets is becoming harder, and from now on, banks will be studying each other's creditworthiness to a greater degree than before. Those people, who struggle with the minutiae of money markets, and that includes most professionals, should focus on the causes and not the symptoms. Financial markets have recovered from each downturn since 1980 because interest rates have been cut to new lows. Post-2008, they were cut to near zero or below zero in all major economies. In response to a new financial crisis, they cannot go any lower. Central banks will look for new ways to replicate or broaden Q.E. (At some point, governments will simply see repression as an easier option). Then there is the problem of 'risk-free' assets becoming risky assets. Financial markets assume that the probability of major governments such as the U.S. or U.K. defaulting is zero. These governments are entering the next downturn with debt roughly twice the levels proportionate to GDP that was seen in 2008. The belief that the policy worked was completely predicated on the fact that it was temporary and that it was reversible, that the Fed was going to be able to normalize interest rates and shrink its balance sheet back down to pre-crisis levels. Well, when the balance sheet is five-trillion, six-trillion, seven-trillion when we're back at zero, when we're back in a recession, nobody is going to believe it is temporary. Nobody is going to believe that the Fed has this under control, that they can reverse this policy. And the dollar is going to crash. And when the dollar crashes, it's going to take the bond market with it, and we're going to have stagflation. We're going to have a deep recession with rising interest rates, and this whole thing is going to come imploding down. everything is temporary with the fed including remaining off the gold standard temporary in the Fed's eyes could mean at least 50 years This liquidity problem is a signal that trading desks are loaded up on inventory and can't get rid of it. Repo is done out of a need for cash. If you own all of your securities (i.e., a long-only, no leverage mutual fund) you have no need to "repo" your securities - you're earning interest every night so why would you want to 'repo' your securities where you are paying interest for that overnight loan (securities lending is another animal). So, it is those that 'lever-up' and need the cash for settlement purposes on securities they've bought with borrowed money that needs to utilize the repo desk. With this in mind, as we continue to see this need to obtain cash (again, needed to settle other securities purchases), it shows these firms don't have the capital to add more inventory to, what appears to be, a bloated inventory. Now comes the fun part: the Treasury is about to auction 3's, 10's, and 30-year bonds. If I am correct (again, I could be wrong), the Fed realizes securities firms don't have the shelf space to take down a good portion of these auctions. If there isn't enough retail/institutional demand, it will lead to not only a crappy sale but major concerns to the street that there is now no backstop, at all, to any sell-off. At which point, everyone will want to be the first one through the door and sell immediately, but to whom? If there isn't enough liquidity in the repo market to finance their positions, the firms would be unable to increase their inventory. We all saw repo shut down on the 2008 crisis. Wall St runs on money. . OVERNIGHT money. They lever up to inventory securities for trading. If they can't get overnight money, they can't purchase securities. And if they can't unload what they have, it means the buy-side isn't taking on more either. Accounts settle overnight. This includes things like payrolls and bill pay settlements. If a bank doesn't have enough cash to payout what its customers need to pay out, it borrows. At least one and probably more than one banks are insolvent. That's what's going on. First, it can't be one or two banks that are short. They'd simply call around until they found someone to lend. But they did that, and even at markedly elevated rates, still, NO ONE would lend them the money. That tells me that it's not a problem of a couple of borrowers, it's a problem of no lenders. And that means that there's no bank in the world left with any real liquidity. They are ALL maxed out. But as bad as that is, and that alone could be catastrophic, what it really signals is even worse. The lending rates are just the flip side of the coin of the value of the assets lent against. If the rates go up, the value goes down. And with rates spiking to 10%, how far does the value fall? Enormously! And if banks had to actually mark down the value of the assets to reflect 10% interest rates, then my god, every bank in the world is insolvent overnight. Everyone's capital ratios are in the toilet, and they'd have to liquidate. We're talking about the simultaneous insolvency of every bank on the planet. Bank runs. No money in ATMs, Branches closed. Safe deposit boxes confiscated. The whole nine yards, It's actually here. The scenario has tended to guide toward for years and years is actually happening RIGHT NOW! And people are still trying to say it's under control. Every bank in the world is currently insolvent. The only thing keeping it going is printing billions of dollars every day. Financial Armageddon isn't some far off future risk. It's here. Prepare accordingly. This fiat system has reached the end of the line, and it's not correct that fiat currencies fail by design. The problem is corruption and manipulation. It is corruption and cheating that erodes trust and faith until the entire system becomes a gigantic fraud. Banks and governments everywhere ARE the problem and simply have to be removed. They have lost all trust and respect, and all they have left is war and mayhem. As long as we continue to have a majority of braindead asleep imbeciles following orders from these psychopaths, nothing will change. Fiat currency is not just thievery. Fiat currency is SLAVERY. Ultimately the most harmful effect of using debt of undefined value as money (i.e., fiat currencies) is the de facto legalization of a caste system based on voluntary slavery. The bankers have a charter, or the legal *right*, to create money out of nothing. You, you don't. Therefore you and the bankers do not have the same standing before the law. The law of the land says that you will go to jail if you do the same thing (creating money out of thin air) that the banker does in full legality. You and the banker are not equal before the law. ALL the countries of the world; Islamic or secular, Jewish or Arab, democracy or dictatorship; all of them place the bankers ABOVE you. And all of you accept that only whining about fiat money going down in exchange value over time (price inflation which is not the same as monetary inflation). Actually, price inflation itself is mainly due to the greed and stupidity of the bankers who could keep fiat money's exchange value reasonably stable, only if they wanted to. Witness the crash of silver and gold prices which the bankers of the world; Russian, American, Chinese, Jewish, Indian, Arab, all of them collaborated to engineer through the suppression and stagnation of precious metals' prices to levels around the metals' production costs, or what it costs to dig gold and silver out of the ground. The bankers of the world could also collaborate to keep nominal prices steady (as they do in the case of the suppression of precious metals prices). After all, the ability to create fiat money and force its usage is a far more excellent source of power and wealth than that which is afforded simply by stealing it through inflation. The bankers' greed and stupidity blind them to this fact. They want it all, and they want it now. In conclusion, The bankers can create money out of nothing and buy your goods and services with this worthless fiat money, effectively for free. You, you can't. You, you have to lead miserable existences for the most of you and WORK in order to obtain that effectively nonexistent, worthless credit money (whose purchasing/exchange value is not even DEFINED thus rendering all contracts based on the null and void!) that the banker effortlessly creates out of thin air with a few strokes of the computer keyboard, and which he doesn't even bother to print on paper anymore, electing to keep it in its pure quantum uncertain form instead, as electrons whizzing about inside computer chips which will become mute and turn silent refusing to tell you how many fiat dollars or euros there are in which account, in the absence of electricity. No electricity, no fiat, nor crypto money. It would appear that trust is deteriorating as it did when Lehman blew up . Something really big happened that set off this chain reaction in the repo markets. Whatever that something is, we aren't be informed. They're trying to cover it up, paper it over with conjured cash injections, play it cool in front of the cameras while sweating profusely under the 5 thousands dollar suits. I'm guessing that the final high-speed plunge into global economic collapse has begun. All we see here is the ripples and whitewater churning the surface, but beneath the surface, there is an enormous beast thrashing desperately in its death throws. Now is probably the time to start tying up loose ends with the long-running prep projects, just saying. In other words, prepare accordingly, and Get your money out of the banks. I don't care if you don't believe me about Bitcoin. Get your money out of the banks. Don't keep any more money in a bank than you need to pay your bills and can afford to lose.











The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more













The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

The FBI released a summary of its file from the Hillary Clinton email investigation on Friday, showing details of Clinton's explanation of her use of a private email server to handle classified communications. The release comes nearly two months after FBI Director James Comey announced that although Clinton's handling of classified information was "extremely careless," it did not rise to the level of a prosecutable offense. Attorney General Loretta Lynch announced the next day that she would not pursue charges in the matter. "We are making these materials available to the public in the interest of transparency and in response to numerous Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests," the FBI noted in a statement sent to reporters with links to the documents. The documents include notes from Clinton's July 2 interview with agents, as well as a "factual summary of the FBI's investigation into this matter," according to the FBI release. Throughout her interview with agents, Clinton repeatedly said she relied on the career professionals she worked with to handle classified information correctly. The agents asked about a series of specific emails, and in each case Clinton said she wasn't worried about the particular material being discussed on a nonclassified channel.