From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: New 2-Month Lows, Just Barely

With another holiday closure on deck and light calendar of events, the rate market is off to another uneventful start this week. In fact, the average lender barely budged from last Friday. But it was enough for MND's 30yr fixed rate index to tick down by 0.01%.

This is the lowest level since October 28th--just barely edging out the lows seen on November 25th. There were only 5 days in November and one day in September with lower rates. Before that, you'd have to go back to September 2024 to see anything lower.[30 year fixed 6.194%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 9:00 AM ET, FHFA House Price Index for October. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. 

• Also at 9:00 AM, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for October. The consensus is for an 1.1% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index for October.

• At 9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December.

• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Minutes, Meeting of December 9-10<

Sunken Russian Ship Allegedly Carried Nuclear Submarine Reactors Destined For North Korea

The maritime industry publication The Maritime Executive, citing a new report from the Spanish outlet La Verdad, reported that the Russian cargo ship that sank last year off Spain's southeastern Mediterranean coast was transporting undeclared components for two VM-4SG nuclear submarine reactors, allegedly with a port call planned in North Korea.

In December 2024, the Russian cargo ship Ursa Major sank under highly suspicious circumstances in waters between Spain and Algeria following reported engine room explosions. The ship's owners characterized the incident as "an act of terrorism."

Spanish authorities determined that blue-tarped objects on Ursa Major's stern were likely unfueled naval nuclear reactor casings, each weighing roughly 65 tons. Investigators identified them as components of VM-4SG reactors, Soviet-designed naval nuclear reactors developed to power Russia's nuclear ballistic-missile submarine fleet during the late Cold War and still in limited service today.

Here's the report:

The circumstances of the vessel's sudden sinking were suspicious, prompting the maritime captaincy to begin questioning the crew. Ursa Major's master, Capt. Igor Vladimirovich Anisimov, initially told investigators the cargo consisted of more than 100 empty containers, two giant crawler cranes on deck, and two large components for a Russian icebreaker project, referring to the tarped objects near the stern. All cargo was reportedly bound for Vladivostok.

The two so-called "icebreaker components" were shipped as deck cargo and were visible to spotting aircraft during the ship's earlier transit. Based on aerial surveillance, each object measured approximately 20 to 25 feet square, including crating, dunnage, and tarping.

Spanish authorities estimated their weight at roughly 65 tonnes each, indicating unusually high density. La Verdad reported that after the captain was pressed on the matter, he asked for time to think before telling investigators the items were merely "manhole covers."

Documents reviewed by La Verdad show Spanish investigators ultimately identified the cargo as casings for nuclear submarine reactors, specifically two Soviet-era VM-4SG reactors.

As for the destination, Spanish authorities speculated the reactor components may have been intended for North Korea's nuclear submarine program, which recently unveiled its first ballistic-missile submarine. Multiple analysts have suggested the new North Korean vessel likely benefited from Russian technical assistance for reactor design and could potentially incorporate a fully built Russian reactor. Russia is believed to owe North Korea a strategic debt following Pyongyang's large-scale transfers of artillery shells and munitions that helped Russian forces stabilize and regain ground in eastern Ukraine.

The cause of Ursa Major's sinking appears to have been kinetic. The shipowner told media there were three explosions and a 20-inch hole in the shell plating, while the captain confirmed the hole's ragged edges were bent inward. This damage profile is consistent with an external explosion impacting the hull.

This report surfaced days after North Korea released new images of what it claims is its first nuclear-powered submarine, a platform framed as a direct challenge to American naval dominance in the region.

If the report that Ursa Major's sinking was kinetic is accurate, the unresolved question is who executed the strike and under what operational authority.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 18:50

The Pence Mirage: Why The Right Isn't Leaving Trump

Authored by Roger Kimball via American Greatness,

To listen to the chatter of the Important People, you would think that a “decent and elevated conservatism”™ was about to return, has returned, or is just about to triumph in the person of—cue the drum roll—Mike Pence, former vice president and perpetual Mr. Goody Two-Shoes.  

Yes, that’s right, because a baker’s dozen of less-than-fully gruntled employees of the Heritage Foundation decamped to Pence’s “Advancing American Freedom” sandbox, we are supposed to believe—at least, we are supposed to say—that a “Reorganization of the Conservative Movement” is underway.  

What do you think?

Does the mutiny at the Heritage Foundation signal a “significant shift within the American right?” Or is it just the familiar anti-Trump palaver we’ve been used to since the media’s “loud and troublesome insects of the hour” began each day by announcing (praying?) that “the walls are closing in” on Donald Trump? 

I think it’s the latter. I think so, in part, because Mike “Mr. Morality” Pence is a political non-entity and in part because the colossus he faces is not the Heritage Foundation but his old boss, Donald Trump.  

These days, any mention of the Heritage Foundation or its president, Kevin Roberts, acts like a ringing bell before the canines of Ivan Pavlov. Instead of salivating, susceptible souls start shouting “Tucker Carlson.” I have written about that melodrama a couple of times—here, for example, and here. I don’t really have more to add about that controversy beyond acknowledging that I like it better when conservatives train their fire on leftists rather than on one another. Perhaps the motto “no enemies on the right” is deficient as a matter of principle. As a matter of practical politics, however, there is a lot to be said for it. 

In any event, it has been amusing to watch Mike Pence pretend that he might become the new standard-bearer for that “decent and elevated conservatism” I mentioned above. The line comes from Bill Kristol, who, in 2019, insisted that Donald Trump was destroying the “decent and elevated conservatism” embodied by, well, by Bill Kristol, of course. MAGA is so naff, so infra dignitatem, so populist. Imagine wanting to make life better for Americans rather than consigning them to drug-sodden poverty at home or the holocaust of foreign wars. Mike Pence has a satchel full of edifying clichés he is fond of dispensing. They didn’t do much for his disastrous and short-lived presidential campaign in the 2024 election cycle. That started in June 2023 and ended a few months later in October, not with a bang nor even a whimper. It just collapsed. Among many cringeworthy moments, perhaps the cringiest was when, having demanded that we send more tanks to Ukraine, Pence said that the sorry state of most American cities was “not my concern.” I suppose that was the elevated thing to say. It was not the vote-getting thing to say. 

Meanwhile, as Pence looks forward to a lifetime of losing gracefully and basks in the warm glow of moral indignation, Donald Trump has been busy actually doing things.

People in Pence’s orbit, and Pence himself, have suggested that Trump’s MAGA agenda is old news, that it has run its course, and that it needs to be retired for something more decent and more elevated. The great Don Surber reminded us recently that the beautiful people in the media and in the know have been predicting “Peak Trump” at least since the moment he rode down the elevator in Trump Tower to announce his bid for the presidency in 2015.

I hate to crash that party, but it is worth noting that Donald Trump has yet to pass the one-year mark of his current four-year term.

In that brief time, he has sealed the southern border, overseen the deportation (self- and assisted-) of more than two million illegal immigrants, and dismantled the insidious racist institution of DEI. He is in the process of destroying the archipelago headquarters of the Teachers Union, also known as the Department of Education, and those bits of the EPA that are concerned more with virtue signaling than with maintaining clean air and water. He has also begun the long process of defunding the international empire of Democrat satellites, the myriad of so-called “Non-Governmental Organizations,” which turn out on closer inspection to be semi-camouflaged proxies for the progressive agenda. Then there are little things like brokering peace in the Middle East, destroying ISIS, and stanching the flow of fentanyl and other dangerous drugs into the U.S.  

On the debit side, I suppose we could list making our European allies angry by pointing out that their Orwellian culture of censorship (free speech, said the head of the EU, is a “virus” that requires the “vaccine” of censorship) together with their importation of millions of Islamic migrants from the Third World is a recipe for “civilizational erasure.” How indelicate of Trump to mention that—almost as indelicate as denying visas to EU bureaucrats who attempt to censor or fine U.S. individuals and businesses.

Meanwhile, Trump has flooded the economy with trillions of dollars of foreign investment and ramped up domestic energy production. We were warned that Trump’s populist policies would precipitate economic disaster. It hasn’t worked out that way. Just a few days ago, the news broke that growth for the third quarter of this year was an astonishing 4.3%, while inflation, predicted to be over 3 percent, came in at 2.7 percent. 

People have been complaining about “affordability.” Trump has been effective in addressing that, too. Travel in the U.S. is way up. Why? Because the cost of energy is way down. Gas prices, a typical headline reads, “fall to four-year lows as millions embark on holiday road trips.” Rents are falling, private sector employment for Americans is up, and the trade deficit is half what it was under Biden.  

Then there is crime. Trump’s decision to send the National Guard into various violent, dysfunctional cities put many knickers in a twist. But last week we learned that the murder rate through October had dropped nearly 20 percent compared to 2024, the biggest one-year drop ever. And it wasn’t only the murder rate that Trump’s policies have trimmed. Robberies are down 18.3 percent, vehicle thefts 23.2 percent, and overall violent crime more than 10 percent. As Elon Musk put it, “Removing murderers from the streets works wonders.”

Notwithstanding the anti-Trump Casandras, the Mike Pence Show is a limited-run engagement in an off-off-off Broadway venue patronized mostly by people like Bill Kristol and various disaffected policy lemmings. The New York Times, CNN, and Politico will continue to attend to the headlines on their marquee. Denizens of the deep state will applaud. But the main stage belongs to Donald Trump, internecine squabbles notwithstanding. 

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 18:25

West Virginia Has The Highest Share Of Income-less Households

Household income is often discussed in terms of averages, but the share of households reporting no income can reveal a different side of the country’s economic reality.

This map, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, highlights the share of households with no income across U.S. states (and the District of Columbia) in 2024 using data from the Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024 1-Year Estimates.

States with the Highest Shares of No-Income Households

Across U.S. states, the share of households with no income ranges from a low of 17% (Utah) to a high of 34% (West Virginia). The United States’ overall share of no-income households is 25%.

The data table below lists each state’s share of households with no income:

State Share of households with no income West Virginia 34% New Mexico 31% Maine 30% Arkansas 30% Mississippi 30% Alabama 29% Louisiana 29% Florida 29% Kentucky 29% Michigan 28% Montana 28% Delaware 28% Arizona 28% Oregon 28% Vermont 27% South Carolina 27% Rhode Island 27% Oklahoma 27% Pennsylvania 27% Wyoming 27% Ohio 27% Missouri 27% Idaho 26% Wisconsin 26% Tennessee 26% New York 26% North Carolina 25% U.S. Overall 25% Connecticut 25% Indiana 25% Iowa 25% New Hampshire 25% Hawaii 24% Nevada 24% South Dakota 24% Illinois 24% Minnesota 24% Massachusetts 24% Kansas 24% North Dakota 24% Washington 23% Georgia 23% Nebraska 23% Virginia 23% California 23% New Jersey 22% Maryland 22% Alaska 21% Colorado 21% Texas 21% District of Columbia 19% Utah 17%

West Virginia stands out with the highest share of households reporting no income at 34%, three percentage points ahead of New Mexico at 31%.

The top five states by share of no-income households are rounded out with Maine, Arkansas, and Mississippi each at 30%.

These states tend to have older populations, higher rates of disability, and lower median incomes overall. In such contexts, a larger portion of households rely on non-earned income sources or report no income during the survey period.

States with the Fewest No-Income Households

Even among the lowest results, “no income” households remain a meaningful slice of the population.

After Utah (17%), the District of Columbia is next-lowest at 19%. Alaska, Colorado, and Texas each come in at 21%, with only five jurisdictions at 21% or lower.

Utah’s low share of one-adult/non-family households is a large driver of its low rate of households with no income.

States with the Most No-Income Households

Below we look at the top 10 states by number of households with no income:

Beyond California, Texas, Florida, and New York, states like Ohio and Michigan also rank in the top 10, despite sitting closer to the middle of the pack by share of no-income households. Their high totals reflect population scale rather than unusually high prevalence.

Meanwhile, states with the highest shares—such as West Virginia and New Mexico—do not appear in the top 10 by total households, highlighting the gap between where no-income households are most concentrated versus where they are most numerous.

To learn more about the incomes across the U.S., check out this graphic about the income needed to reach the 1% in each state on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 18:00

Top Senate Races To Watch In 2026

Authored by Joseph Lord & Jackson Richman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

As 2025 draws to a close, the country is already turning its attention to next year’s midterm elections.

Republicans are facing favorable odds in the Senate, where they currently hold a 53–47 advantage.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock

In the 2026 midterms, 33 Senate seats are up for election—20 currently held by Republicans and 13 held by Democrats. Prediction site Polymarket gives Republicans a 66 percent chance at holding the upper chamber.

To do so, they’ll need to fend off challenges from Democrats and make gains in a series of key races, including in Georgia, North Carolina, Maine, and Texas.

Meanwhile, Democrats are the current favorites to reclaim the House from Republicans, who hold the chamber 220 to 213, with two vacancies. Prediction sites such as Polymarket are giving Democrats a 78 percent chance of winning and RealClearPolitics (RCP) shows Democrats leading in House polls by about 3.7 percentage points.

Here are the top eight Senate races to watch, leading up to the Nov. 3, 2026, general election.

1. Texas

Both the Democratic and Republican primaries in the Lone Star State are intense contests.

On the GOP side, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is running to replace incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas).

Paxton entered the race earlier this year, carrying baggage from controversies, including a 2023 impeachment trial in which he was ultimately acquitted by the Texas Senate.

The race has been labeled by Paxton as a contest between his populist, America First politics and the establishment politics, which he claims are represented by Cornyn.

Cornyn has described the race as a question of character, referencing Paxton’s impeachment, allegations of adultery, and other legal challenges faced by his challenger.

Most observers and prediction markets have pegged these two candidates as the frontrunners.

However, Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) has also thrown his hat into the ring, setting up a three-way primary that is likely to result in a runoff.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee, the main campaigning and fundraising arm of the Senate GOP, is supporting Cornyn, who is slightly favored in current RCP polling.

Trump has not yet made an endorsement in the race.

Given the broader political environment, Democrats hope for a long-shot win and currently leading the pack of potential nominees is Texas state Rep. James Talarico.

Talarico rose to prominence during the redistricting battle this summer as Texas Republicans voted to add five Republican districts to the state’s congressional map.

His main rival for the nomination is Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas), whose Oct. 8 entry into the race prompted Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) to end his bid.

The primary race will be held on March 3, and any runoff races are scheduled for May 26.

2. Georgia

For years, Republicans have sought to reclaim at least one of the Peach State’s two Senate seats, which were won by Sens. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) and Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) in early January 2021 runoff elections.

This year, Ossoff has no Democratic rivals to fend off in the primary; while Republicans show a crowded field in their bid to reverse their losing streak in the state’s Senate races.

The top declared challengers in the Republican primary include Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.), Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.), and former football coach Derek Dooley.

Each has emphasized loyalty to Trump as they vie for an endorsement from the White House, though the president has so far stayed out of the race.

Outgoing Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp has endorsed Dooley.

The RCP average shows Collins currently leading the GOP field by almost 10 percent.

However, Ossoff leads in hypothetical match-ups with any of the three Republicans in the general election.

Georgia’s primary is set for May 19, 2026, and the primary runoff date is June 16, 2026.

3. Maine

Further up the Eastern Seaboard, a long-serving Republican could be facing her toughest political challenge yet.

First elected in 1996, Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) has bucked trends in New England, where all other federal office seats are held by Democrats.

Collins’s seat is a top target for Democrats. She was reelected in 2020 with 51 percent of the vote, fending off Democratic challenger Sara Gideon who won 42.4 percent.

Two major Democratic contenders seeking the nomination in the Pine Tree State are military veteran and political newcomer Graham Platner and Maine Gov. Janet Mills.

At the start of the election cycle, Platner’s populist and progressive brand of politics garnered attention from left-leaning Democratic voters nationwide, earning him the endorsement of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

However, his candidacy has faced difficulties following multiple scandals.

Mills’ candidacy has the backing of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.).

Platner has a wide lead over Mills in the RCP average, which also shows that he would defeat Collins. Polling shows Collins winning a hypothetical matchup with Mills.

Maine’s primary is scheduled for June 9, 2026.

4. Michigan

In Michigan, Republicans hope to capitalize on incumbent Sen. Gary Peters’ (D-Mich.) retirement to win a key pickup in a state that has become synonymous with battleground politics in recent years.

Former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) is the presumptive GOP nominee this year. Rogers was the Republicans’ nominee in the state’s 2024 Senate election, which he lost to Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) by just 0.3 percent.

Trump has endorsed Rogers in the race.

However, in a race that still favors Democrats, the Democratic field is more competitive. So far, Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and physician Abdul El-Sayed have thrown their hats in the ring.

McMorrow has said she would not support Schumer as Senate Democratic leader if she is elected. Establishment Democrats are supporting Stevens.

The RCP average shows Stevens with a narrow lead in the primary, and that Rogers would defeat those three candidates in a matchup.

Michigan’s primary election is scheduled for Aug. 4, 2026.

5. Ohio

Once upon a time, the Buckeye State was the definitive swing state, serving as a top target for both parties. But in recent years, it’s become nearly a lock for Republicans.

This year, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) hopes to change that—and make a political comeback after losing his seat in the state’s 2024 Senate election.

Brown served in the Senate from 2007 to 2025, before losing to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) in the 2024 election.

The seat up for grabs is currently occupied by Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio), who was appointed by Gov. Mike DeWine to fill the seat after Vice President JD Vance assumed his current role.

The race this year is a special election, and the winner will serve out the remaining two years of Vance’s term.

The RCP average shows Husted, who has been endorsed by Trump, leading by 2.5 percentage points.

Ohio’s primaries are set for May 5, 2026.

6. North Carolina

North Carolina has long been viewed as a swing state, despite its results typically favoring Republicans.

This year, Republicans are seeking to hold the seat being vacated by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who is retiring.

Democrats’ chances in the race are bolstered by the decision of former Gov. Roy Cooper—a popular Democrat who has proven electable at a statewide level—to seek the post.

“I have thought on it and prayed about it, and I have decided: I want to serve as your next United States Senator, because, even now, I still believe our best days are ahead,” Cooper said in a video posted to his YouTube account on July 28.

Republicans are expected to field Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley, who has been endorsed by Trump.

The RCP average shows Cooper, who served as governor from 2017 to 2025, leading Whatley by 4.7 percentage points.

The North Carolina primary will be held on March 3, 2026, and any runoffs are scheduled for May 12, 2026.

7. Nebraska

In Republican stronghold Nebraska, the Democrats don’t plan to field a candidate.

Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.), who was appointed by the governor to fill the vacancy left by the retirement of Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.), is the odds-on favorite to win the seat.

However, Republicans could still face a battle to hold the seat in 2026 in the form of independent candidate Dan Osborn.

In 2024, Osborn—who wouldn’t caucus with either party—came within 6.67 percent of winning the seat.

Nebraska’s primary is set for May 12, 2026.

8. New Hampshire

Though New Hampshire favors Democrats on a national level, Republicans hope to defy trends this year in the wake of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s (D-N.H.) retirement.

The Republican primary is a two-way race between former Sens. John E. Sununu (R-N.H.) and Scott Brown (R-Mass.).

Establishment Senate Republicans are supporting Sununu, who served in the Senate between 2003 and 2009.

The RCP average shows Sununu leading the primary race by 13 percentage points.

On the Democrat side, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) is the frontrunner.

In possible general election matchups, RCP polling shows Pappas with a narrow edge on Sununu and winning against Brown by double digits.

The primary election in New Hampshire is scheduled for Sept. 8, 2026.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 17:40

BofA CEO Moynihan: Trump's Tariff War Shifts Into De-Escalation Phase

The conversation between CBS Face the Nation’s Margaret Brennan and Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan on Sunday morning focused on the economic outlook for small businesses after nearly one year of the Trump administration’s ‘America First’ policies.

Moynihan discussed trade policy, tariffs, small businesses, labor, and immigration. He noted that, on the trade front, Trump’s trade war with many of America’s top trading partners was chaotic in early 2025 and caused significant concern among small businesses, a key client base for BofA. By the end of the year, however, that chaos had largely subsided.

Brennan asked BofA CEO:

In the past year, trade and tariffs—there were a lot of shocks to the system. It was a big concern. But Bank of America now projects that President Trump's strategy is one of de-escalation, not escalation. Does that mean you see this trade war with China cooling off?

Moynihan's response:

Well, I think if you go back to where we were in April, there was a lot of lack of understanding about what would end up being affected for small businesses. They were shocked—they'll be shocked—by the sheer size and volume of dollars across the board, etc. What you'd say now, as time has moved on, it's sort of 15% on one side, and then higher numbers based on people who won't commit to purchase from the US or will not commit to lowering their non-tariff barriers, things like that.

So the question—when I talk to foreign governments, they ask questions about, "What does this all mean for CEOs?" You've got a choice: you could be here, you just have to make choices. It's going to drive more towards America—come down to 15%, go to 10% across the board, 15% for the broad base of countries. Not a huge impact. And that's where our team says it is starting to de-escalate. You start seeing resolution discussions—15% here, different numbers.

When you put China in, it's a Chinese question because of national security interests: rare earth minerals, magnets, batteries, chips, AI—all this stuff. It's a very different case. I think also between Mexico, China, and the US—the USMCA, which has to be redone—is also a different case. But broadly in the world, you can see sort of an endpoint here, and now they've just got to work with it. It's got to work through the system.

Brennan then asked:

How much of a toll has that taken on small businesses? I understand Bank of America is the largest small business lender in the country...

Moynihan responded:

It was a big toll earlier this year because rates were going up—it cost more money because they borrow on revolving lines of credit... and they were on floating rates. And then tariffs came in and caused, "I'm not sure I can get the goods at what price and how I could commit."

As you went through the year, rates came down a little bit, so now their issue right now is labor—they need to get labor to bid contracts and do the work. Because immigration policies haven't settled in yet, that's causing people concern. It's not that they agree with them or disagree with them—just need to have an answer.

And that's, I think, across four policy regimes: tax, trade and tariffs, immigration, and ultimately deregulation. We've seen resolution of a lot of it. But I think the next one for small business—what they tell us—is labor availability.

How they get there is, "I need people to do this work, and I need to be dependable that they're here. So give me a set of rules, and I'll go play with them. I just need clarity on what the rules are."

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan says small business owners have concerns about the Trump administration’s immigration policies, not because “they agree with them or disagree with them,” but rather the “policies haven't settled in yet.”

“What they tell us is labor… pic.twitter.com/pPpXkCV07a

— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) December 28, 2025

What is very clear is that Trump’s America First policies have defied the apocalyptic consensus of mainstream economists, MSM complex, and the Democratic Party’s propaganda machine.

• The Apocalyptic Shortage That Never Happened: Democrats' Tariff Doomsday Narrative Imploded

Economic data show solid growth and controlled inflation, pointing to a robust 2026, just in time for the midterms, as Democrats search for their next doom-and-gloom narrative to flood the airwaves. Yet Democrats fail even to mention that much of the affordability crisis originated during the Biden-Harris regime years and their nation-killing globalist policies, which Trump officials have been correcting this year

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 17:20

Is The Gloom And Doom About An AI Dystopia Justified?

Authored by Arthur Schaper via American Greatness,

“Artificial intelligence does the work of many minds at once. Will human creativity flourish or fail?”

“Artificial intelligence will make us useless slaves. We must stop these abuses before they start!”

“AI will create killer robots! We’re doomed!”

I have heard various versions of the above concerns regarding the rise of robots, the growth of artificial intelligence, and the broader concerns about the moral and ethical dilemmas facing humanity as technological innovation advances—and then accelerates.

The gloom around AI is understandable but incorrect.

Technological innovation has always served as a winnowing process. Old jobs fall away, but new jobs take their place. Some career paths may disappear, but new opportunities take over.

No matter how sophisticated, artificial intelligence cannot replace human intelligence, wisdom, ingenuity, and entrepreneurship. AI can hone specialized skills for those who want to retain or maintain specific fields of craftsmanship, but craftsmen are not going away.

With special thanks to Canadian commentator JJ McCullough, AI makes it easier to create templates and ideas, but the quality and the taste of the pictures, objects, and ideas created are, on the surface, still cringeworthy. A machine cannot inspire, nor can it replicate the inspiration of the human spirit. Whatever stories, poems, or other forms of art that can come out of a ChatGPT prompt, the style and substance will never suffice or suffuse the human mind. Furthermore, the compact creations of Grok or Meta AI programs can’t reflect the inner tensions of man’s search for place or meaning in his world, including the scenes that he depicts. While AI can generate pictures or formulate ideas into pictures, it cannot create or enhance the contrasts, shades, and shadows that transform the ordinary into the extraordinary.

Of course, there is a growing number of artists and intellectuals ruggedly opposed to AI. They think that all creative works deserve assessment and praise based on the amount of effort put into the creation. Here’s the fundamental failure of the marketplace for leftists. Value is not determined by labor but by the interest or value of the consumer. No creation, no good, and no service has value in and of itself, but rather its value is based on what it produces. There you have the Austrian economics’ subjective theory of value.

Animators fear that AI will take their jobs away. AI might make it easier to produce films, but the fundamental characters and templates of individual actors, processions, and ideas will have to come from the people. The stunning beauty of Walt Disney’s “Snow White” still rivals the computer animation of DreamWorks.

Instead of limiting or bankrupting artists, AI will induce the general public to discern quality, and artists will strive to reflect that. The general public will have a greater appreciation for the abstract and avant-garde. That’s a win-win for artists.

We cannot predict how broad and commanding man’s ingenuity will be going forward. AI has provided a means for man to be more creative more quickly, but it cannot predict or anticipate the future wants and needs of the general public, either.

Man and his search for competence, recognition, and meaning will not disappear, but our lives will improve in the search for answers.

Another fear about rapid mechanization and advancement of AI was that there would be such widespread unemployment that governments and peoples would have to invest in universal basic incomes.

Industries that promoted the upkeep and well-being of horses fell into decline with the arrival of the automobile. Animal enthusiasts, performers, and general-interest equestrians still own horses, ride them, and enjoy their company. The horse-riding industry was limited, but it became more specialized.

But specialized careers employ fewer people. Where’s the comfort, then? Consider the moment when banks switched to automatic in the 1970s. There was widespread fear that automated teller machines, ATMs, would put thousands of people out of work. The opposite happened. Banks shifted their services to more customer-related features. With the increased savings, these financial firms opened up more branches, and they ended up having to hire more people! Free enterprise does entail creative destruction, but there always follows a creative proliferation!

Furthermore, it’s rather arrogant for labor leaders and liberal pundits to claim that “There will be no jobs left.” Human wants and needs are constantly changing. Steve Jobs created the portable phone with Internet before there was a thought, let alone a want, for the phone. Once he invented the nifty device, everyone had to have one. The innovations often create the need because of the facility and agility they provide to the consumer.

Even now, reports are listing the jobs that AI cannot replace. Human beings will always have employment opportunities.

Besides, if AI became so sophisticated that all jobs became obsolete, then that would mean the AI could provide for all human needs, thus eliminating concerns about economic privation and starvation.

We’ve dispensed with the gloom.

But what about the doom?

Are we on the verge of the T-800 and T-1000 making war on the human race? Hasta la vista, baby!

Will we see “I, Robot” become reality? A recent video of Chinese engineers fending off a robot prototype, which began thrashing its arms and legs wildly—and violently—raised these concerns. Another article described how an AI program deleted all the software of a company, ruining the productivity and preeminence of the company.

Artificial intelligence that can recognize itself opens serious ethical concerns. Will they attack us? Will they make war on us? We should not be naïve enough to ignore such a possibility. Is it ethical to treat mechanical creations, acting as our servants, with any form of disdain or disrespect? When do we discuss the rights of robots and the responsibilities of human beings in connection to these creations (creatures)?

Instead of focusing on job losses, AI discussions should focus on ethical concerns, and we must ponder the answers. No one wants to face the fate of Dave in “2001: A Space Odyssey” or the Epsilons in “Brave New World.”

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 17:00

Trump-Bibi Meeting: US Will "Knock The Hell" Out Of Iran If Nuke Sites Rebuilt

Among the more notable moments during President Trump's visit with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu while hosting him at the Mar-a-Lago resort Monday, came when the two discussed potential future military action against Iran.

Trump threatened to "knock the hell" out of Iran if the country starts rebuilding its nuclear program again, after the US major June 'bunker-busting' strikes on three nuclear facilities as part of the June war.

AFP via Getty Images

Trump warned that the US would "have to knock them down" if there are any signs of reconstruction at either Fordow, Natanz, or Isfahan. 

He said the following while standing beside his close Israeli ally Netanyahu:

"Now I hear that Iran is trying to build up again," Trump said. "And if they are we're going to have to knock them down."

"We'll knock the hell out of them," Trump added. "But hopefully that's not happening."

This is music to Netanyahu's ears, also as he reportedly pressed his US counterpart on greenlighting possible new strikes on Iranian ballistic missile sites, which Israel says constitutes a threat to the whole region.

Another interesting moment came when Trump encouraged Israel to "get along" with Syria, after constant and ongoing military incursions into Syrian territory.

Somewhat comically, Trump said: "The new President of Syria is working very hard to do a good job, he really is... You're not going to get a choir boy to lead Syria... So, I hope they're going to get along."

'Choir boy' likely alludes to the fact that President Ahmed Sharaa is the founder of al-Qaeda in Syria, and once was even the envoy of the head of ISIS.

When Assad was overthrown in December of last year, this took out a major player in the 'pro-Iran axis' in the region, and removed a big problem for Israel. Of course, Syria also had the best Russian-made anti-air defenses in the whole region. But now Syria is fragmented and weak, and easier for Israel to control, just as Netanyahu and the US-Gulf axis desired.

Trump delivers a strong pro-Israel statement, says Netanyahu has done a tremendous job defending his country and working with his administration and warns that they may team up again in another big victory if Iran gets cute. pic.twitter.com/xnsoKNeTTc

— Max Abrahms (@MaxAbrahms) December 29, 2025

As for Gaza, the two leaders agreed that there should be a deal to continue the Gaza ceasefire "quickly" - but it remains that disarming Hamas is the main sticking point.

But this is easier said than done, as Hamas still has enough armed members to keep an insurgency going, even if on a small scale, possibly for years to come.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 16:40

'Above Average'

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

“The left can act with an insane decentralized unanimity typically seen only in the insect kingdom.”

- Curtis Yarvin

All winters are winters of discontent, but some winters are more discontented than others, and this one is like being stuck in a smoke-filled sod hut on the lonely prairie, with lice crawling under your hair-shirt, while a sleet-storm rages outside. . . . And it was only just Christmas days ago!

Immigrants, legal and otherwise, are the gifts that keep on giving.

Minnesota is acting all indignant now over the discovery that its many thousands of Somali guests made a major industry of looting the government. What is it with Garrison Keillor’s upright descendants of the pioneers? I guess they’re not as “above average” as he used to tell us.

The fellow in charge, for instance, was one Tim Walz, recently a candidate for Veep, if you can believe it. He seemed oblivious to the scam-o-rama going on, though the “Little Mogadishu” neighborhood in Minneapolis is only a couple of miles from the governor’s mansion across the Mississippi River in St. Paul.

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, flummoxed

You must wonder: does he know any of these people?

Does he consort with their representative in Congress, Ms. Ilhan Omar who, just this year happened to come into a $30-million fortune.

(Did Nancy Pelosi tutor Rep. Omar on stock-picking?)

The Somali racketeering network is alleged to have stolen billions of tax dollars for empathy-dripping social services programs such as “Feeding Our Future,” housing stabilization, autism therapy services, day-care, and Covid-19 relief measures.

These were a mix of state and federal funds funneled through Medicaid, with the feds covering roughly 50-60 percent of costs, all administered by the state government. The fraud proceeds were primarily spent on personal luxury items (cars, homes, travel), real estate (including overseas), or transferred abroad to Somali terror groups such as al-Shabaab associated with al Qaeda.

Governor Walz declared, “Minnesotans have no tolerance for fraud. That’s why we created a state law enforcement unit to investigate and hold people accountable for these crimes, and why I’m calling on the legislature to pass our comprehensive anti-fraud package.” Another son of the prairie, Senator Everett Dirksen of Illinois (d. 1969) once cracked, “. . . a billion here, a billion there, sooner or later you’re talking about real money.” FBI Director Kash Patel “surged” a big unit of his agents to the Land o’ Lakes to have a closer look at the situation. So far, federal prosecutors have secured convictions (many through guilty pleas) of over sixty Somalis and the American who ran the non-profit org Feeding Our Future, Aimee Bock, described as “the ringleader.”

Prosecutors say those associated with the org defrauded the Federal Child Nutrition Program of nearly $250 million through Minnesota’s Department of Education.

The feds identified millions of dollars in several bank accounts associated with Bock, as well as more than $13,000 in cash found in her home. KSTP-TV Eyewitness News, Minneapolis said, “Bock was also convicted of accepting kickback payments, or bribes, and funneling money to her boyfriend at the time, one Empress Watson.”

Say, what. . . ? A boyfriend named. . . Empress? Is it possible that Governor Walz is not personally acquainted with Aimee Bock?

The New York Times apparently decided that the Minnesota scandal was not worth reporting. Islamophobia, you understand. Instead, the Sunday edition carried this story:

Perhaps the most interesting twist in the Great Minnesota Grift is how money bounced out of the various social service fraud operations into the coffers of Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party politicians. State Attorney General Keith Ellison collected donations totaling around $10,000–$15,000 from multiple defendants or affiliates shortly after a 2021 meeting where future fraudsters discussed state oversight issues. His son, Minneapolis City Council Member Jeremiah Ellison, pulled in up to $9,000 at a 2021 fundraiser from multiple future defendants. Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey accepted roughly $9,000 from nine defendants or affiliates. (His office later vowed to return or donate the funds.) Rep. Ilhan Omar got her beak wet for $7,000. There may be much more “smurf” donation grifting behind those via the political action committee ActBlue’s straw donor schemes. Stand by on that one.

One special outrage that flew under the radar this holiday season surfaced after Christmas: In November, Minnesota Judge Sarah West (DFL Party) tossed out a jury’s unanimous guilty verdict against one Abdifatah Yusuf of Promise Health Services, convicted of masterminding a $7.2-million Medicaid fraud.

She based her reversal on the prosecution failing to exclude other reasonable, rational inferences inconsistent with Yusuf’s guilt.

That’s rich. Is the prosecution obliged to provide alibis for the guy they’re prosecuting? Maybe in Minnesota, with its above average legal code. Anyway, Yusuf just walked. End of story. Maybe.

Tune in Friday, readers, for the annual forecast of the year-to-come. Making predictions is a mugg’s game, I admit, but a necessary ceremony nonetheless. I will do my level best.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 16:20

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2026. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog).

I'm adding some thoughts and predictions for each question.

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2025.

5) Inflation: Core PCE was up 2.8% YoY through September. This was down from a peak of 5.6% in early 2022.  The FOMC is forecasting the YoY change in core PCE will be in the 2.4% to 2.6% range in Q4 2025. Will the core inflation rate decrease further in 2026, and what will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2026?

Although there are different measures for inflation, they all show inflation above the Fed's 2% inflation target on a year-over-year basis.

Note:  I follow several measures of inflation, including median CPI and trimmed-mean CPI from the Cleveland Fed.  Also core PCE prices (monthly from the BEA) and core CPI (from the BLS).

Click on graph for larger image.

On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.1% in November (down from 3.5% YoY in September), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.9% (down from 3.3%), and the CPI less food and energy rose 3.0% (down from 3.2%). 
Core PCE is for September was up 2.8% YoY, down from 2.9% in August.
The Fed is projecting core PCE inflation will decrease to 2.4% to 2.6% by Q4 2026. 
The good news is we should expect a further decline in housing inflation (asking rents have been flat for 3 years, and it takes time for the previous rent increases to filter through to renewals).  And inflation was fairly high in January last year (CPI up 5.7% annual rate, Core CPI up 5.5% annual rate) - so it is likely YoY measures of inflation will decline further in January.
From Goldman Sachs economists last week:

"We expect core PCE inflation to slow to 2.1% by the end of 2026 as tariff pass-through fades and wage growth and shelter inflation continue to fall."

My guess is core PCE inflation (year-over-year) will decrease in 2026 (from the current 2.8%) but still be above the Fed's 2% target by Q4 2026 (and above Goldmans forecast of 2.1%).  
Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2026 and a few predictions:

• Question #7 for 2026: How much will wages increase in 2026?

• Question #8 for 2026: How much will Residential investment change in 2026? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2026?

• Question #9 for 2026: What will happen with house prices in 2026?

• Question #10 for 2026: Will inventory increase further in 2026?<

OpenAI Looking To Hire 'Head Of Preparedness' To Tackle AI Dangers

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

OpenAI is seeking to hire a candidate for the post of “Head of Preparedness” to tackle dangers posed by the proliferation of artificial intelligence (AI), CEO Sam Altman said in a Dec. 27 post on X.

OpenAI sparked initial public interest in AI chatbot interactions with the popular launch of ChatGPT in November 2022.

“This is a critical role at an important time; models are improving quickly and are now capable of many great things, but they are also starting to present some real challenges,” Altman wrote.

“The potential impact of models on mental health was something we saw a preview of in 2025; we are just now seeing models get so good at computer security they are beginning to find critical vulnerabilities.”

The post comes as OpenAI is facing a host of lawsuits on the subject of mental health. In November, seven complaints were filed against the company in California, alleging that its ChatGPT chatbot sent three people into delusional “rabbit holes” while encouraging four others to kill themselves.

According to the lawsuits, the four deaths occurred following the victims’ conversation with ChatGPT about suicide. In some cases, the chatbot romanticized suicide, advising the victims on ways to carry out the act.

As for computer security, multiple reports have flagged the risks posed by AIs.

For instance, a May report from McKinsey & Company warned that AI models capable of detecting fraud and securing networks can also infer identities, expose sensitive information, and reassemble stripped-out details.

The State of Cybersecurity Resilience 2025 report from Accenture warned that 90 percent of companies are not modernized enough to defend against AI-driven threats.

In its Aug. 27 Threat Intelligence Report, AI company Anthropic, which makes the Claude AI, said that AI was being weaponized to carry out sophisticated cybercrimes. In one operation, a hacker used Claude to infiltrate 17 organizations, with the AI used to penetrate networks, analyze stolen data, and create psychologically targeted ransom notes.

In his post, Altman said that while OpenAI has a “strong foundation” for measuring the growing capabilities of its AI models, the company is entering a world where a “more nuanced understanding and measurement” is required to assess how these capabilities could be abused and to limit downsides.

These are “hard” questions with very little precedent, he said. Many ideas that sound good have “edge cases,” which are extreme or unusual scenarios that test the boundaries of a system, such as an AI.

“This will be a stressful job, and you'll jump into the deep end pretty much immediately,” Altman said.

The role, based in San Francisco, requires the person to build capability evaluations, establish threat models, and build mitigations, according to a post by OpenAI. The job offers $555,000 in annual compensation plus equity.

The head of preparedness will oversee mitigation design across major risk areas, such as cyber and biology, and ensure that safeguards are “technically sound, effective, and aligned with underlying threat models.”

As of September, ChatGPT had 700 million weekly active users globally.

AI Threat

In an interview clip released on X on Aug. 18 as part of the “Making God” documentary film, Geoffrey Hinton, a computer scientist known as the “godfather of AI,” said he was “fairly confident” AI would drive massive unemployment.

However, “the risk I’ve been warning about the most ... is the risk that we’ll develop an AI that’s much smarter than us, and it will just take over,” Hinton said. “It won’t need us anymore.”

In a July 18 post from Charles Darwin University in Darwin, Australia, Maria Randazzo, an academic at the university’s law school, warned that AI puts human dignity at risk.

While AI is an engineering triumph, it does not exhibit cognitive behavior; these models have no clue what they are doing or why, she said.

“There’s no thought process as a human would understand it, just pattern recognition stripped of embodiment, memory, empathy, or wisdom,” Randazzo said.

“Globally, if we don’t anchor AI development to what makes us human—our capacity to choose, to feel, to reason with care, to empathy and compassion—we risk creating systems that devalue and flatten humanity into data points, rather than improve the human condition.

“Humankind must not be treated as a means to an end.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 15:40

J6 Pipe Bomber's Motive Revealed In DOJ Pretrial Detention Memorandum

Nearly five years after pipe bombs were planted outside the DNC and RNC headquarters on January 5, 2021, authorities arrested Brian Cole Jr. on December 4, 2025. The 30-year-old from Woodbridge, Virginia, now faces charges for allegedly planting those devices. Within hours of the arrest, major outlets rushed to frame Cole as a MAGA adherent. NBC News reported that Cole "believed conspiracy theories about the 2020 election.” Politico ran with the headline, “Justice Department says Jan. 6 pipe bomb suspect believed election conspiracy theories.”

However, the suspects’ own words belie that claim.

The Department of Justice filed a memorandum on December 29 in support of pretrial detention for Cole. The document dismantles the narrative the media pushed following Cole’s arrest. 

According to the filing, Cole initially denied assembling or planting the bombs during his videotaped interview. He claimed he drove his Nissan Sentra to Washington alone to attend a protest about the election outcome. Cole explained his reasoning: "I didn't agree with what people were doing, like just telling half the country that they – that their – that they just need to ignore it. I didn't think that was a good idea, so I went to the protest.”

He also described himself as someone who "has never really been an openly political person" and avoids discussing politics with family to prevent conflict. According to Cole, "no one knows" his political views, including his family. After the 2020 election, "when it first seemed like something was wrong" and "stuff started happening," he began following the issue on YouTube and Reddit and felt "bewildered.” Cole believed that if people "feel that, you know, something as important as voting in the federal election is being tampered with, is being, you know, being – you know, relegated null and void, then, like, someone needs to speak up, right? Someone up top.”

Cole felt leaders on "both sides, public figures" should not "ignore people's grievances" or call them "conspiracy theorists," "bad people," "Nazis," or "fascists.” Instead, "if people feel that their votes are like just being thrown away, then . . . at the very least someone should address it.” 

After agents confronted Cole with surveillance video showing him planting the bombs, he admitted he was the individual in the footage. He then walked investigators through the entire process of constructing, transporting, and planting the devices.

Cole stated he assembled the devices in the hours before driving to Washington on January 5, 2021, and cleaned them with disinfectant wipes. He eventually admitted he did not travel to Washington to attend a protest but to plant the devices. 

"When asked why he placed the devices at the RNC and DNC, the defendant responded, 'I really don’t like either party at this point,'" prosecutors said in their filing, describing the interview. “[Cole] also explained that the idea to use pipe bombs came from his interest in history, specifically the Troubles in Ireland. The defendant denied that his actions were directed toward Congress or related to the proceedings scheduled to take place on January 6." 

Cole allegedly said in the interview that he had actually intended for the devices to detonate and set 60-minute timers on both after planting them outside of the DNC and RNC. After leaving them, he said he went to his car, picked up food from a restaurant in Virginia and then returned home. 

When agents returned to the subject of motive, Cole explained that "something just snapped" after "watching everything, just everything getting worse.” 

"In his own words, the defendant did so because he did not 'like either party,' but 'they were in charge' and thus were, in the defendant’s mind, an appropriate target for extreme acts of violence," prosecutors explained. "The defendant’s choice of targets risked the lives not only of innocent pedestrians and office workers but also of law enforcement, first responders, and national political leaders who were inside of the respective party headquarters or drove by them on January 6, 2021, including the Vice President-elect and Speaker of the House." 

The DOJ memorandum presents a picture of someone disenchanted with the entire political system rather than a MAGA activist. Cole's stated motivation centered on frustration with both major parties for their handling of election concerns, and his confession reveals someone who felt compelled to act against the institutions themselves, not in support of one side against the other.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 15:20

DOJ Subpoenaed Flight Records For Reporter Who Exposed Epstein Scandal

Authored by Ken Silva via HeadlineUSA,

Miami Herald reporter Julie Brown’s late 2018 series on sex offender Jeffrey Epstein contributed to the Justice Department reopening its case against Epstein the next year.

Audrey Strauss, acting U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, points to a photo of Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell, during a news conference in New York. / PHOTO: Associated Press

It looks like the DOJ also subpoenaed Brown’s flight records. Brown said she found her name in the recently released “Epstein files”—the trove of documents released by the DOJ earlier this month pursuant to congressional legislation.

“What I didn’t expect to see was an American Airlines flight record from 2019 with my full name on them, including my maiden name, which I don’t use professionally. It’s an unusual name, so it’s clear it’s me,” Brown wrote on her Substack.

“The document appears to be details of an itinerary for a series of flights I booked in July just before the SDNY and FBI arrested Epstein.”

According to journalist Michael Tracey, the DOJ may have been tracking Epstein accuser Annie Farmer. Brown and the Miami Herald reportedly booked a flight for her in July 2019.

Solved the mystery for you.

Julie K. Brown wrote in her book "Perversion of Justice" that the Miami Herald, Brown's employer, paid to fly Annie Farmer -- a purported Epstein victim -- to Little Rock, AR in July 2019. The itinerary shows a round-trip flight for a passenger… https://t.co/fQYf8KKO5h

— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) December 29, 2025

“Julie K. Brown now says she personally booked this flight. It stands to reason that the DOJ would’ve subpoenaed American Airlines, and other entities, for travel records pertaining to Annie Farmer, as she’d been identified as a purported victim of Epstein/Maxwell,” Tracey said on Twitter/X.

“It further stands to reason that Julie K. Brown’s name would appear in these records, as the person who booked the flight on Annie Farmer’s behalf.”

Epstein was arrested in July 2019 and found dead in a prison cell a month later.

Meanwhile, the DOJ has yet to release all the Epstein files. The DOJ said last week that it’s found 1 million more records, and is going through them to redact sensitive information.

Ken Silva is the editor of Headline USA. Follow him at x.com/jd_cashless.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 15:00

"I Flagged Them All": Attorney Says US Gov't Investigating Somali Welfare Fraud In Ohio

Allegations of welfare fraud involving Minneapolis daycare centers tied to Somali operators have circulated in the news cycle for years with limited traction; however, it was not until a high-visibility, bombshell investigation by citizen journalist Nick Shirley that the topic was reignited and thrust back into the news cycle. The focus is now shifting from Democrat-run Minneapolis to what is being framed as a potentially nationwide welfare fraud epidemic.

On Sunday, Breitbart News published an interview with Ohio attorney Mehek Cooke, who alleges that members of the Somali community in Ohio have defrauded millions of dollars from the state's Medicaid program.

"So these individuals tried to report the fraud that was happening in Ohio and eventually came to me saying that we are watching providers rubber-stamp paperwork for home health.

And there are many states like this, Pennsylvania and others too, where you can go in and say, 'My aging parent needs home health care. I want to provide it.'

The state will, as long as a doctor has approved it, continue to pay you. It could be for 10 hours, 12 hours, up to 24 hours when it is critical care.

So you could sit at home without caring for an elderly parent who really does not need it and make about $75,000 to $90,000 a year. Now you add two parents, that is $180,000. Now you add your in-laws, $250,000.

You continue to add this and you wonder, what services are actually being provided? So a lot of providers came to me and said fraud is occurring because we refused to rubber-stamp this paperwork.

So they went to other providers in their home health care networks saying, 'We will make it worth your while.' Well, that sounds like a kickback to me.

So we really need to investigate the Medicaid system, how much it has expanded since the Somali population arrived, and who truly needs critical care, because that is meant for the disabled, the elderly, and people who genuinely need it, not for people to live off the system.

And that is what is happening in Ohio. I think it is ridiculous. I think it is despicable. But authorities are now looking at it, from the Attorney General's office to the U.S. Attorney's office.

I flagged them all because these are Ohio tax dollars and we have to take it seriously. I am tired of people telling me, 'Well, this is the way it has always been. It is subjective, and we cannot really check.'

No, you can. Audit America. Audit Ohio now."

.@MehekCooke: Taxpayer-funded medical fraud is also widespread in Ohio.

"We really need to investigate the Medicaid system and how much it's increased since the Somalian population came." pic.twitter.com/8pJCzjK4qo

— Breitbart News (@BreitbartNews) December 28, 2025

Elon Musk, the former DOGE head who was investigating this kind of fraud on the federal level, noted, "The fraud of your taxpayer money is happening nationwide and is liberally applied to attract illegal (and some legal) immigrants who will reliably vote Democrat. The more you look, the more you find. And you don't need to be a world-class detective to figure it out. This is brazen, daylight robbery."

Rep. Ismail Mohamed (D-OH):

Bragging about naming a street in Ohio after the Father of Somalia…

Bragging about Somalian’s infiltrating the City, State, and Federal level, and says he’s in a Group Chat with them and their main objective "Our main objective is to discuss all… pic.twitter.com/vidX6mCKPh

— Papo (@Papo352) August 15, 2025

Remember, it was the Democratic Party that threw a fit when DOGE began investigating fraud, waste, and abuse on the federal level. And now we know why. What comes next is likely an expansion of DOGE-esque investigations (perhaps with an army of citizen journalists) aimed at blue states suspected of massive welfare fraud schemes.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 14:40

The Consumption Conundrum

GDP, released last week, showed that the economy grew by a larger-than-expected 4.3%.

Powering the strong economic growth was personal consumption, which rose by 3.5%.

Consumers are spending!... What’s unusual about that statement is that consumer sentiment remains historically weak.

Typically, there is a strong correlation between personal consumption and consumer sentiment.

As RealInvestmentAdvice.com shares below, the University of Michigan and the Conference Board consumer sentiment indexes are at or near 10-year lows.

Moreover, they are generally worsening, yet personal consumption continues to grow strongly.

Can such a divergence continue?

To help answer that, consider the five bullet points below, which explain why personal consumption has been strong.

• Wealth Effect: U.S. stock markets will post their third 20%+ increase in a row.

• Non-discretionary Spending: The mix of spending is leaning towards non-discretionary items. For instance, spending on housing, healthcare, insurance, and travel is increasing as a share of total spending. Many of these expenditures are unavoidable, not confidence-driven impulse purchases. For example, healthcare spending accounted for nearly 20% of consumption.

• Credit: Rising use of credit cards, buy-now-pay-later, and home equity loans boosts spending in the short term.

• Savings: Real personal income was flat, thus consumers are using savings, which fell to a historically low 4.7% rate, or credit to meet their needs. Neither is sustainable over the longer run.

• Inflation: Even if the inflation rate is normalizing, the higher prices of goods and services weigh on consumers’ psyche, in turn making sentiment worse. However, its impact on consumption is not as significant.

But here's the real deciding factor...

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 14:20

Black Privilege: Canadian Judge Reduces Sex Offender's Sentence Over Race

A former university football player who choked a woman until she was almost unconscious and forced another one to give him a blowjob was given a reduced sentence by a Canadian judge of just two years in prison because he's black and was 'feeling intense pressure' at the time of the attacks. 

"It should be noted that but, for the contents of the Impact of Race and Culture Assessment (IRCA), the pre-sentence report and all the mitigating factors surrounding Omogbolahan (Teddy) Jegede, this sentence would have been much higher," Justice Frank Hoskins said in his Nova Scotia Supreme Court decision last Wednesday, the National Post reports. 

The author of an Impact of Race and Culture Assessment, a report funded under a new initiative from the Trudeau Liberals, wrote that Jegede was feeling intense pressure around the time of the assaults and did not have culturally appropriate support to turn to.

Of note, IRCAs are relatively new in Canadian law - and have become popular thanks to an initiative which began under the Justin Trudeau liberals. 

The attacks happened in 2022 and 2023 at residences at St. Francis Xavier University in Antigonish, N.S. - with one woman testifying that Jegede choked her, and the other testifying that she was forced to perform oral sex. Both women said they were physically dominated by Jegede, who is much larger than they are. 

In addition to his two-year jail sentence, Hoskins added three years of probation - which can be reduced if Jegede makes significant progress in counseling. 

The Crown had requested a sentence of up to 36 months, while Jegede's defense asked the judge to reduce his sentence to community service. 

"In my view, this is a case where the need for denunciation is so pressing the incarceration is the only civil way in which to express society’s condemnation of Mr. Jegede’s conduct," said Hoskins, noting that Jegede came from a strong, church-going family with strict parents that had stable careers. The now-convicted sex offender told the court that he grew up feeling loved by his family. 

He then began a degree in kinetics at St.FX, however those studies were interrupted by his sex crimes and subsequent charges. 

Jegede was born in Lagos, Nigeria and immigrated to Canada in 2010. His mother said that the transition to Canada was a significant adjustment for the family, and their youngest son "experienced bullying in elementary school due to his accent and racial identity as a black child."

The Real Victim?

To prepare for his trial, an IRCA was written that looked at this kind of cultural factor, and noted declines in Jegede's classroom performance and mental health in his 2nd and 3rd years at St. FX. Jegede told the author that he struggled with a sense of isolation because he's black in a predominantly white university town.

"I grew up around black people in Brampton and Fort McMurray. Many of them were immigrants, which allowed us to relate to each other on many levels, especially culture. It was like that until I moved to Antigonish to attend university," he said.

Judge Hoskins, reading from the IRCA, said in his decision: "The absence of adult mentors or role models further exacerbated Mr. Jegede’s vulnerability. His parents had hoped his football coach would provide guidance, but this need went unmet."

The judge added that the IRCA "provided valuable insight. It has provided me with an understanding of Mr. Jegede’s background from a social, cultural perspective," but then circled back to the "two very serious sexual assault and offences against two different victims at the same school, in similar circumstances, approximately five months apart, which is concerning, because it suggests that Mr. Jegede may be dangerous … In other words, this is not an isolated incident involving one victim, the nature of both offences and their immediate lasting consequences make them very serious offences."

Hoskins noted that the "primary aggravating factor, in this case, is the violence and serious evasive nature of the sexual assaults, particularly the offence involving (one of the victims), where she was forced to provide Mr. Jegede oral sex, while her movements were being forcefully controlled by (him)."

The judge also addressed the defense's request for community service, saying "I’m in the view that I cannot exclude a federal period of incarceration as a fit and proper punishment for these offences," and arrived at the 24 month sentence by determining 18 months for the more violent and invasive of the two sexual assaults, and six months for the other. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 14:00

Feds Fund Online Game 'Bad Vaxx' To 'Psychologically Inoculate' Vaccine Resistance

Authored by Jon Fleetwood,

U.S. taxpayer funds are being used by federal health agencies to develop and test online psychological games designed to condition how people—especially younger audiences—interpret and respond to vaccine skepticism.

An August Nature Scientific Reports study reveals that the project was funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) under the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, through a CDC award administered by the American Psychological Association.

The paper states that the funding totaled “$2,000,000 with 100% funded by CDC/HHS.”

The grant supporting the project is titled “COVID—INOCULATING AGAINST VACCINE MISINFORMATION,” award number 6NU87PS004366-03–02.

That award has already handed out over $4.3 million in taxpayer funds since its activation in 2018.

The project language mirrors the study’s conceptual framework: dissent is treated as exposure to a pathogen, and resistance to dissent is treated as immunity.

The government-funded study centers on the creation and evaluation of an online game called Bad Vaxx.

According to the authors, the purpose of the game is not to examine disputed vaccine claims or to compare competing evidence, but to reduce what they define as “vaccine misinformation” by shaping how players cognitively process vaccine-critical content.

This is despite the CDC’s own VAERS data confirming over 2.7 million injuries, hospitalizations, and deaths linked to vaccines since 1990.

The study authors explain their premise at the outset:

“Vaccine misinformation endangers public health by contributing to reduced vaccine uptake.”

From this premise, the study moves directly to intervention design.

“We developed a short online game to reduce people’s susceptibility to vaccine misinformation.”

The paper frames this approach as a form of psychological prevention, borrowing language from immunology rather than education or debate.

“Psychological inoculation posits that exposure to a weakened form of a deceptive attack… protects against future exposure to persuasive misinformation.”

The Bad Vaxx game operationalizes this concept by training players to recognize four specific “manipulation techniques”: what it refers to as emotional storytelling, fake expertise, the naturalistic fallacy, and conspiracy theories.

These techniques are treated as characteristic of vaccine misinformation as a category.

“The game trains people to spot four manipulation techniques, which previous studies have identified as being commonly used in the area of vaccine misinformation.”

The study does not include a corresponding examination of whether similar persuasive techniques may be used in vaccine-promoting messaging, government communications, or pharmaceutical advertising.

Ironically, the Bad Vaxx project itself relies on the same persuasive architecture it claims to neutralize—emotional framing, authority cues, and repetition—embedded in a gamified format designed to shape intuition rather than invite scrutiny.

The classification of “vaccine misinformation” is established in advance and applied only to information critical of injectable pharmaceutical products.

Throughout the paper, vaccine skepticism is framed as a behavioral and social risk rather than as a possible response to uncertainty, evolving evidence, or institutional error.

The taxpayer-funded authors write:

“Susceptibility to misinformation about COVID-19 predicts lower compliance with public health regulations and lower willingness to get vaccinated.”

The choice of a game as the delivery mechanism is emphasized as a strength of the intervention.

The authors repeatedly describe the format as “entertaining,” “immers[ive],” and scalable, highlighting its ability to shape intuition rather than deliberation.

“A practical, entertaining intervention in the form of an online game can induce broad-scale resilience against manipulation techniques commonly used to spread false and misleading information about vaccines.”

Games function by rewarding correct pattern recognition, reinforcing desired responses, and reducing analytical friction.

The study’s outcome measures reflect this design: discernment scores, confidence ratings, and willingness to share content, rather than independent evaluation of claims or evidence comparison.

The researchers also emphasize the potential reach of such interventions.

“The Bad Vaxx game has the potential for adoption at scale.”

This matters because the funding source is not an academic foundation with no policy stake.

The CDC is the primary federal agency responsible for vaccine schedules, promotion, and uptake.

Yet the study does not address how this institutional role shapes the definition of misinformation used in the intervention, nor does it acknowledge the conflict inherent in a public health authority funding psychological tools aimed at managing disagreement with its own policies.

The dystopian nature of the project emerges from the structure itself: state funding, psychological conditioning, asymmetric definitions, and a delivery system designed to bypass debate in favor of intuition.

What the paper documents, in concrete terms, is the use of taxpayer funds to develop and validate a behavioral intervention—delivered through a medium optimized for psychological conditioning—that trains users to reflexively distrust a predefined category of speech, while exempting vaccine-promoting institutions from equivalent scrutiny.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 13:40

 

 

The transcript from this week’s MiB: Jay Leno, Live Audrain Newport Concours & Motor Week, is below.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

~~~

 

Transcript:

 

This is Masters in Business with Barry Ritholtz on Bloomberg Radio.

Happy holidays, and We have an extra-special holiday podcast at the Newport Ordering Concourse, elegance. I sit down with Jay Leno talking about cars, comedy, watches, and pretty much everything else. Jay’s a fascinating guy who’s created an amazing career.

I thought this conversation was super interesting, and I think you will also, with no further adieu, my conversation with the former host of The Tonight Show, Jay Leno.

Barry Ritholtz: Jay, thank you so much for joining us.

Jay Leno: Thanks for having me. So let’s start out with a little bit talking about your background. Uh, born in New Rochelle, you grew up in, um, Andover, Massachusetts. Which interest came first? Cars or comedy?

Jay Leno: Well, when you grow up in a little rural town, you don’t think of comedy as a job, you know? And I was known to the neighbors as Kathy’s boy wants to be comedian. He’ll grow out of that. He’ll say, don’t worry, Kathy, you, that, that kind of, you know, that kind of mm-hmm. People just, it, it didn’t seem like a viable, you know, you go to Hollywood, you meet kids wanna be lighting directors or costumes or, ’cause they know people that did that. You know, but when you’re in Andover, it’s like, what?

Barry Ritholtz: What sparked your interest in comedy? How did you find the path.

Jay Leno: I had very good teachers when I was in high school. I had a English teacher, Mrs. Hawks, and being dyslexic, I was not the best student. And you know, she said, “Oh, I see making jokes in class and stuff. Do you ever think of writing comedy?” I said, well, I never, I never thought it’d be a job. Oh, you should take, oh yeah, that’s it. She said, “I’ll tell you what. Why don’t you, maybe you could, instead of writing a paper for the final, you give a talk, you know?”

And I said, okay. And I tried to. Put some kid style jokes in and that was the first time in my life I actually enjoyed doing homework and mm-hmm. Well, maybe I can make a living doing this. But as a kid, you know, I think people at a comedians, you tend to remember things that are funny, things that get a reaction, you know?, I was in the fourth grade and Mrs. Allen was my teacher. I always remember this. She was telling us about, Robin Hood. how cruel the Sheriff of Nottingham was, and he would boil Robin’s men in oil, and I’d put my hand up and I said, you, you know why he did that to Tuck? And she said, no. Why? Because he was a Friar. Okay. And then she does one of these. “that’s not funny. Just stop that.” I, oh, see. Oh, she’s kinda laughing, you know. But the real kicker was later in the day, I’m walking past the teacher’s lounge. No, no. Come here. Well, what did you say about Friar Tuck? I said, and I went, oh, she told my joke in the teacher’s lounge and I said, oh. I said, he is a Friar. Oh, that’s was a friar, that’s a very funny thing. I went, oh, that’s, that’s pretty good. And I thought, oh, and when you’re a kid, you, you know people that you tend to remember things that get a laugh.

You just sort of, a little bit of attention. Yeah. You put them in your mind, you try, it makes a little indentation, you know? So that was always something I enjoyed doing. Always remembered it. But again, I never thought. I could make a living doing it.

Barry Ritholtz: Who were your comedic influences when you were growing up?

Jay Leno: Oh, Robert Klein, George Carlin. Richard Pryor, primarily Klein. ’cause Klein was like me, middle class white kid. You know, most comedians at that time tend to be, uh, grew up during the depression. Mm-hmm. And Youngman, uh, all those kind of guys, you know, kids today with the long hair, you know, all that kind of stuff.

Then all along comes Robert Klein. And, and, uh, and, and once again, George Carlin. Richard Pryor, Bill Cosby before the recent turn of events. Uh, you know, so it, it was, yeah, those were my influences.

Barry Ritholtz: Since we’re at the ordering Concourse and Motor Week, let’s talk a little bit about cars. (Good transition, right?)

Your first, your first car was a 34 Ford stock. What’d you do to it?

Jay Leno: I saw my dad and I were driving past the tip top miniature golf in North Reding, Massachusetts. It was parked at the Shell Station with a sale sign. I went and I bought it. Um, what’d you pay for that? $350. Mm-hmm. Which was a lot of money in Yes, in 1965.

But I had been working at McDonald’s and I’d saved some money and, you know, so, and then we dragged it back to my house and I took a couple years to get it running, and then I got my license and I drove it every day to school.

Barry Ritholtz: Self-taught mechanic. What do you mean? You took a couple years to get it?

Jay Leno: Oh, self. Self. Well, yeah, I mean, just. You know, you’re a kid, you’re playing with it after school, you know, that kind of thing. Uh, yeah, it took me a couple of years to learn how to do. Yeah, I guess self-taught would be the fair way to say it. Yeah.

Barry Ritholtz: So 34 Ford is the gateway drug. At what point did you realize this is more than a hobby, something of a passion.

Jay Leno: Well, when I had a garage full of cars, I Perhaps this is, uh, more than a Yeah, yeah.

Barry Ritholtz: Well, how many cars is too many? At what point do you need help?

Jay Leno: Just maintain, well, I have 214 on the road now. Plus the motorcycles.

I watch the show hoarders, and go, the guy’s fine. It’s a problem, man. You can still get to the bathroom. Look, but that’s old newspapers. You have motorcycles and cars. Something a little more reasonable when your parent did the same thing.

Barry Ritholtz: How do you decide of the 214 cars, which one you gonna take that day?

Jay Leno: That’s the first world problem. Mm-hmm. That’s not very much. So people don’t want to hear a rich guy go, how do I decide? I just can’t decide which guy. No. I mean, whatever I’m working on. If I do one oil change a day, it takes 18 months. So, right. You have to look at it that way. Right.

Barry Ritholtz: Watever you’ve just worked on, you say, let me drive it home to see if it’s okay.

Jay Leno: So that’s what I enjoy.

Barry Ritholtz: You’re a little bicoastal, you’re in L A but you also have a place here in Newport?

Jay Leno: I do have a place, and I also have a house in Andover, Massachusetts, where I grew up here.

Barry Ritholtz: Do you, do you keep any cars out here as well?

Jay Leno: No, I don’t. Because of the weather and mm-hmm. You know,

Barry Ritholtz: What do you drive when you get here?

Jay Leno: I’m one of these people. Really my car, you know? If my car was on another coast, oh, that would be horrible. Like, we go out to eat if, if I can’t see the restaurant from my table, we’re not eating here, honey.

Barry Ritholtz: I’m curious how Leno’s Garage came about. I have this fantasy that your accountant says to you…

Jay Leno: No, no, no. I have a garage, I have friends with cameras, I’m on TV already. This seems like a fairly natural transition.

Barry Ritholtz: Why don’t you take the TV hobby and put it on tv and this way you try to mo, um, you know, monetize it as much as you can?

Jay Leno: I did it for nothing for the first, I guess, 15 years. Really? Yeah. You know, just because I enjoyed doing it. It was fun. Um, and it just opens up another, you know, you should have something. I’m not a particularly interesting person. Uh, you know, so if you have other things of interest that other people like, then you have something in common, you can talk about it. So, cars, motorcycles. Anything that rolls, explodes, makes noise is interesting.

Barry Ritholtz: Do you know what the cars, uh, that are top of the list here are gonna be?

Have you walked around, seen much so far? Oh yeah. This, you have some of the best cars in the world here. This is quite an event. You are. And inevitably you see something you’ve never seen before or, or never even heard of.

Jay Leno: You know, the, uh, all countries are working on automobiles. In different, you know, you had cars from Czechoslovakia, the people on the other side of the mountains never heard of. Mm-hmm. You know, like a Tatra, a very unusual car. Most Americas never seen one, but it’s very popular in Czechoslovakia or what was then Czechoslovakia at the time.

So, yeah, so it’s a fascinating hobby and the nice thing about it is it’s no more than really 150 years old. You know, if you, if you like Egyptology, well now you gotta go back 6,000 years and stand in hot sun and dig in the sand. And, uh, you know that with cars, I only have to go back a few years. We, we took a walk down, um, the Boulevard earlier, the two that kind leapt out to me, aside from the Gulling, I know you have one of those was the Talbot Lagos.

Yeah. Spectacular. Yeah. Very interesting guy. They’re very art deco, you know? Yes. It’s only in recent years, cars are seen as kinetic artwork. Right. You know, it used to be just an old car. Mm-hmm. But now people are looking at them and I mean, it’s. You know, you can buy a painting that this for a hundred million dollars.

Right? You get something that rolls down the road, looks pretty, has a practical element to it. So, and only cost a 10th as much. Yeah. Only cost a 10 or sometimes, almost as much you Right. I mean, Ferrari go for the, I think the last Ferrari sold for $75 million. Yeah. I mean it’s pretty crazy. That’s a one of one though, right?

No, no, that’s one of 13. 13, wow. Yeah, I also saw, um, uh, and there wasn’t a sign on it, so I’m doing this. By sight, but a Mercedes SK 500, the giant front fenders has Yeah, yeah. Spectacular. Also, they are, they, I try to enjoy the, the, the, some suspicious things happen in Germany, even. Thirties to the mm-hmm.

Middle forties. I tend to avoid those for obvious reasons. Mm-hmm. But the early ones I love. Yeah. So let, let, let’s talk about some of these classic designs. What do you think has aged especially well? What looks good? Uh, perhaps that wasn’t thought of so well, when it first came out. Oh. Oh, what his age?

Well, I wasn’t thought when it first came. Well, two different court, I mean. Uh, shapes evolve. I mean, uh, cars used to change just for the sake of change. Mm-hmm. Now they change mostly because of aerodynamics and efficiency and, and things of that nature. You know, uh, I mean, a Prius is about an efficient shape as you can get, but it’s not, it’s attractive enough, but it’s not striking.

It doesn’t take your breath away the way. Mm-hmm. Some Ferraris by pin or whatever, you know, back in the, in, in the twenties, thirties, forties, fifties. Things are drawn by hand. So there’s a, there’s a, a flow. Yeah. Flow. Yeah. Like now everything is sort of computer design. You have all these sort of weird angles and things like that, but.

Uh, you know, the best looking cars are both masculine and feminine, like an XKE. Mm-hmm. I don’t know any women that don’t find Jaguars attractive. Even women that don’t know anything about cars, there’s something about, because it has a feminine element to it, but then it has the rear haunches and, and so it has a masculine, so it’s a little bit of both to it.

Mm-hmm. You know. A lot of cars look too brutal. You know, Lamber, goodie, Kosh? Mm-hmm. Those look like guy cars, right? You drive, one of the girls go, how old are you? Yeah, boy toy. You pull ’em a jag, you’re like, Ooh, I like that guy. Yeah. So sometimes the proportions, the shapes, the lines, they speak to everybody.

They’re universal. Yeah. I mean, it’s trick is. Well, if it speaks to everybody, then you have a Corolla. Mm-hmm. You know, the, the best. Cause people, some people love it, some people hate it. Anything that gets emotion going is probably gonna work on some level. You know, I remember talking to Bob Lutz about this when the Viper came out and said, A lot of people think it looks like a cartoon car.

It’s a bit over exaggerated because we’re not trying to sell it to them. We’re trying to sell it to the people who think it looks good and there’s enough of ’em out there, you know? For sure. So, so let’s talk about, um. People have to ask you questions about cars all the time, but they don’t have to.

Actually. Most of ’em just, people must assume. Lots of people do. Yeah. Yeah. When someone asks you for a recommendation, what, what, what do you recommend as a good, cheap set of wheels for a budding enthusiast? Well, you know, there are almost, or for an enthusiast mm-hmm. Or for transportation. Transportation is easy.

I mean, someone who wants something fun for the weekend, well, first they tell me what it is they’re looking for. You know, I, I, I mean obviously el cars, Mustangs, Camaros, things of this nature. Any sort of two seated sports car, uh, yeah, there’s plenty of choices out there. You don’t need me for that. Mm-hmm.

So this event is sponsored in part by Alanga and Sauna. Mm-hmm. Um, we’re both wearing Longa watches. What drew you to watches? See, I paid for mine. So did I. Oh, you did? I paid for mine also. So, so, and you probably have access to more of these than I can get, so, well, it’s interesting, you know, I, I, watchmaking and automotive things have a lot in common ’cause they’re both extremely mechanical.

Mm-hmm. Most watch people don’t really like electric watches the same way they don’t like quartz watches. Mm-hmm. Quart watches are obviously the most accurate you can get, but there’s, don’t appear to have a soul to ’em, you know, with these kind of things, when you turn, you hear the, the, you know. Mm-hmm. It is, it’s a sort of a.

The car, the watch needs you. If you don’t wind it, it won’t run. So there’s a human element that needs to be attached to watch, to get it to the run, you know? And if you flip it over, you can see the absolute spectacular mechanicals on the other side. Yeah. They do a beautiful job. So, so very parallel the, the precision and intricacy of a mechanical watch and a classic automobile.

Yeah. Yeah. I, I, I seen them as somewhat similar. I mean, I like things that need me, you know, my, my cars need me because I need to do certain things to make sure they run correctly. Electric cars kind of run them out of who the master is. Mm-hmm. You know, it’s about like that screen door. After a while, you learn it has to be shut a certain way.

Normal people can’t do it, but you know that you lift it and turn it just a quarter of an inch, oh, it’ll click in. Coming up, we continue our conversation with Jay Leno, live from the Newport, a Drain concourse, the elegance, discussing how a career in comedy. And car collecting led to a fascination with mechanical time pieces.

I am Barry Ritholtz. You are listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My extra special guest this week is Jay Leno, comedian, car collector, timepiece enthusiast. Let’s return to our conversation live at the Newport or drain concourse Gonz. What, what are your thoughts on, on the new EVs and hybrids that are coming out?

What, what does this do to the collectible market? I, I believe you have a Tesla plaid, is that right? A Tesla plaid’s a great look. I used my electric card during the week. I mean, sitting on the freeway in a 40, a 1966 Hemi, 4 26, it gets three miles per gallon. Doesn’t really make a lot of sense. You’re not going fast, you’re not, you’re just annoying people and, and poisoning the atmosphere.

So you take your electric car then on the weekends. If there’s a car rally, you drive your Mustang or whatever car you have to the rally, you sit around and you tell lies about it to other people and they tell you lies about their car and you know, it’s a sort of, a little bit of interaction, you know, so, so I mentioned the precision of automobiles and the precision of watches.

You have famously been touring for 40 years, 40 plus years. Um, when you put together a standup set, do you put the same sort of precision into structuring that set as you do? Well, I think, I like to think so. Mm-hmm. I mean, you, you, you, you want to have a joke every six to nine seconds. It’s a bit like spinning plates of the Sullivan show, and then, then you want to keep it going, you know?

So you wanna make sure that the people, you’re not wasting people’s time. I hate when people are, how y’all doing? Woo. Anybody from Boston? Woo. Boston? Yeah. Okay. That’s not comedy. You’ve wasted 40 seconds. You know, get right. Yeah. Keep it moving. You know, when you watch Rodney, Rodney was a, I was a big fan of Rodney Dangerfield, and it was, it was the economy of words.

It’s getting the funniest words you can in the shortest amount of time. You know, Rodney had jokes I loved, like, uh, I worked practice strip joint. It said topless and bottomless. I went in. There was nobody there. I mean, it’s, it’s a funny joke. I mean, ’cause I didn’t waste your time. It wasn’t a three minute setup.

You know, one of his favorite jokes, it’s so stupid. My doctor wanted a semen sample, a stool sample. And a urine sample. So I gave my underpants. I mean, okay. But it’s quick. Boom, boom, boom. You’re not, you’re not wasting people’s time. Really. Interesting. So you’ve been known as somebody who just has toured his whole career, even during, what was it, 22 years of the Tonight Show?

You still were doing standup on a regular basis? Well, when you’re on television, you rely on 175 other people. Mm-hmm. They really can’t do the show without all the elements to it. And when you go out on the road, you’re by yourself. You rise the fall strictly on your own ability. And I, I, I like that you get all the blame, but you also get all the glory.

And, and I, I like that. Plus it’s piecemeal, right? Joke, tell joke, get checked, boom. Next show nobody says, you know the joke she told two months ago, they’re not working out. Come back. You gotta come back and do the show again. You don’t have to do that. You know? Mm-hmm. On tv you get, there’s so many irons in the fire and whatnot.

You’re dealing with. You know, and my, my favorite TV line of all time when NBC was letting me go, I said, you know, I’ve been number one for 23 years, well for 18, 18 of the 23 years. And they said, we want what’s above number one? I said, okay, what, uh, what is above? What is above number? I mean, just made me laugh.

And even they realize how stupid that song. I said, what do you mean? How can you have, what’s a above? Just tell me, somebody tell me what it, yeah. Just made me laugh. Sorry. So since this is Bloomberg, a financial network. Yeah, let’s, let’s talk a little bit about money. Alright. You are known as someone who is savvy with your money.

You only spent the money you earned doing standup. Well, I’m not savvy. I’m dyslexic. Yeah. Okay. So consequently I don’t really understand it. All I know is money. My I work and my money relaxes. That’s my, I don’t want my money out working for me. Because he’s gonna screw up somewhere. I don’t want that.

Right. Whenever I hear, and there’s minimal risk, and I hear the word risk. Mm-hmm. And minimal. So that means I’m gonna lose something, right? No, no. I, no, I don’t. I always had, even as a kid, I worked at Wilmington Ford, I worked in McDonald’s. Whichever job made the most I banked and the other money was my, you did the same with The Tonight Show.

You banked The Tonight Show. I never touched a check in 22 years from The Tonight Show. That’s amazing. I banked everything and I lived on the money I made as a comedian. Then when I, when I, uh, when the show ended it, oh, I opened this little pass book. Oh look, this. It’s quite a bit of money here, you know?

This is good. Yeah. So when you started collecting cars, did you ever envision this collection would get this large No. No. Or this valuable? No. I never thought that, no. When I, I remember I would sleep in the alleys in New York and it was the most depressing. I remember sleeping on the alley. It was one of those alleys where guys would come with hookers and I’d be in the back just hiding behind some trash cans and they were doing whatever.

Really, this is my life now. I mean, it was like. It’s the most horrible that really on the road you were that hard travel. I remember on 44th and ninth it was Dikes. Lumberyard, right across the way and from from the alley where I slept a couple of nights I could see dikes lumberyard. I always had that in my mind, and hookers would come in and they’d just, just horrible.

It’s a terrible, they just hear terrible sounds horrible. I said, really? This is my life. This is what it is now. You know? So everything better than that was gravy. Yeah. Well, it’s been a little bit of gravy. You recently had a, uh, gulling, you found in a barn you’ve had a number of barn. No, no. I, no, I didn’t.

I didn’t buy that. I didn’t buy, that car was found. It was sold for $10 million and we had the owner You had it on the show? We had it on the show, yes. I did not. I, I would like to have owned that car, but no, I didn’t buy it. Didn’t you find a number of barn fines, cars? Oh yeah. Sure, sure. What, what are some of the more memorable ones?

Um. Well, the most recent one was a 1963 Jaguar XKE. Uh, the guy bought it in 62, started drinking about 66, 67. He became a hoarder, just had trash piled on top of it. Uh, when he died, the family called me, they said, uh, cars right across the street. Uh, my uncles had some kind of car. We didn’t know what it was.

And it was a Jaguar. And I, I said, and, and this is really the best way. I said, look, Google it. Find out what’s it worth. Okay. Find out what they’re worth and let me know and I’ll pay you that. And that’s what I did. Seems fair. Yeah. I, I mean, I paid more than a fair price. Mm-hmm. Because I, I don’t flip cars.

I don’t sell cars. So to me, this way, nobody goes, you wanna rip me? I don’t, you don’t want any of that? Any cars on your list that you’re still, uh. Hunting for anything you’d like to have? No, you know, I buy, I buy the story as much as I buy the car. Really? Yeah. I mean, to me the fun, you know, I had a lady call me 94 years old, and she and her Hudson, her and her husband bought a 51 Hudson Hornet in New Jersey.

They drove it to California with their two kids. He bought a gas station. He ran that for the next 30 years. He died sometime in the early nineties. She calls me about 2000, I guess. Three, four. Uh oh. My husband died like 20 years ago. We got this car. I say I already have a 5,300 will come look at it. Okay, so I gotta look at it.

She’s 94, no hearing air, no glasses, right? And she said, would you gimme $5,000 for her? Okay. So I bought it. I take it back to my garage. It takes about a year and a half. We get it off and let me see if she’s still alive. I call her up. Hello? Oh, it’s jaylenn off. I said, the car’s all finished. You want to go for a ride?

She goes, okay, now she’s 96. Okay. And she says, can I bring the kids? I said, yeah, bring the kids. So I get there and the kids have got a blindfold and the kids are 74 and 72 and they’re blindfolded or right. And she’s like touching the car. Oh, the paint feels so smooth. Oh, it used to be so rough. We’ll take the blind.

Oh, she starts crying. We wanna go for, let’s go for araj. So the kids get in the back. Right. So we’re driving along and we’re talking, and the two kids start doing this to each other, poking each other, right? And, and she turns around. I, I told you kids, and she’s whacking the crap out of me. Mr. Leno was nice enough to take us a ride in his car, and you kids can’t be here.

And the three of them are just laughing. I mean, they’re just falling down. And she, and she’s not holding back. I mean, she’s really hitting them, but she’s laughing while she’s hitting them, you know? And it was just so funny. It was just so funny. She lived to be 106. Wow. And every time I get in that car, it makes me laugh.

’cause it was just so fun to see these, these two old men and they all look the same age. You know, she’s 96, they’re 74, and, and she just whacking the crap out of hilarious. So more stories than there’s a hole in your collection or you’re enamored with this? No, don’t have a hole. I know. I have enamored with this.

No, it’s just about the stories. You know, my key to success is low self-esteem. I’ve heard you say that before. Yes. Yes. Because. If you have low cycle esteem, you never assume you’re the smartest person in the room. I assume one of the dumbest person in the room. So let me look around and see what the other people are doing here, and that’s what you do.

You know, I have so many friends that do TV shows and they really think, I don’t like, I wanna change these lights. And the lighting director who’s been in the business 40 years, I don’t think, no wait, I wanna change. Well, no. Why? Why don’t just let the lighting director do his job? You know, the fun thing about the Tonight Show was when I did it, anybody could pull, pull a cord and stop the train because I don’t like this.

I don’t think this is funny. Did it get to be annoying sometimes? But everybody felt they had a, a say in what was going on. It felt like they were part of the whole system. This idea that, you know, do not make eye contact with the star and just all that kind of nonsense, you know? So to me that was always the key to, to, to being successful.

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I am Barry Ritholtz. You are listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My extra special guest this week is Jay Leno, comedian, car collector, timepiece enthusiast. Let’s return to our conversation live at the Newport or drain concourse Gonz. So, so let’s stay with, um, the Tonight Show and comedy.

All right. Um, you’ve interviewed a few presidents, right? Right. Um, you interviewed Barack Obama. Who, what other presidents did you interview? Uh, was Barack Obama. Was Reagan before you, uh, started on, no, I, I interviewed Reagan. They had dinner with Reagan at the White House a couple times, but he wasn’t ever on the show.

Barack Obama was the first sitting president ever to do the show. Mm-hmm. Um. Uh, Barack Obama, Hillary had the nomination locked up and then he announced he was running for president. So I called him up and said, wanna come on the show? Oh, we’ll call. Thank you so much. You know, he rented a car, drove himself to the show, you know, walks out.

I goes, Hey, my name’s Barack was saying Obama. I’m running the president of the United. I said, okay, black guy from Chicago named Hussein. I said, you know, you shouldn’t even have to campaign. I just think you, you’re shooing with that. And you know, he got the joke and he’d laugh and he was very funny. And we got to be friends.

And so next time he came on the show, I asked him, it was the first time a sitting president and the whole parking lot was tented. Mm-hmm. So a satellite could not see where, when it came in, where it came in, couldn’t tell. Yeah. And I mean, I’ve told this story, but this is. I have the same idiot friends I had in eighth grade, so I’m telling him I had Barack Obama on the show and he gave me this phone number.

Nah, Uhuh Uhhuh. Uhuh Uhhuh. You don’t get it. You said you now, alright, let’s call him up. I go, I’m, it’s surprising the United States, I’m not gonna call him up. No, you don’t have it now. Uhuh Uhhuh now Uhuh Uhhuh. So I, I take out my phone book and I cover the phone and they go, see what it says there. Barack Obama president, the United States, his phone number is right under here.

You you? I said alright. Alright. I’ll call him. You want me to call him? Ill call. It’s like three o’clock, I figure. Okay, what can go wrong? Yeah. Hello, Brock Here. Mr. President. Yeah. Jay Leno. We’re gonna do vj. I’m just here with some of my friends. Lose this number. Jay, click. So your reputation has never been, uh, a very political.

Uh, comedian, you play it straight down the middle. Well, I used to get, we used to get quoted every day in the New York Times. We, we, we tried to make fun of both sides. Yeah. Mm-hmm. But yeah, that’s the way we did it. That’s not the way everybody else does it, but that’s okay. So, so recently Jimmy Kimmel mentioned on the air that you called to check in on him when, when he was temporarily suspended.

Uh, is what do you think the future of late night looks like? And and what does that say about the comedians have to watch what they say. Well, apparently they don’t have to watch what they say ’cause he’s back on tv. Mm-hmm. Okay. I mean, you either believe in free speech or you don’t, you know, free speech.

It only becomes annoying when it says something you don’t like. Mm-hmm. Other than that, it’s fine. And that that’s really the only, the only problem. And there’s always something somebody doesn’t like, whether it’s banning books or Huck Finn or whatever it might be. Uh, so to me, I, I always support street. I mean, I support Jimmy as a comedian, but also just the whole premise.

You don’t have to agree with him to realize. I mean, I, I, I had people that tore me apart every day. But they had the right to do it. I, I, I didn’t like what they said, but I agree with their right to say it if they chose. Yeah. You, you have Dave Chappelle speaking at the comedy festival in Saudi Arabia.

Mm-hmm. Saying he feels like, uh, free speech is under assault in the us. Uh, not that Saudi Arabia is a hotbed of free speech. Well, yeah, yeah. Again, I, I don’t like this new thing of comics criticizing other comics. We’re comedians. Okay. Just, you know, I believe in free speech. I, I shouldn’t have to say any more than that and I will defend it.

To the end, but, you know, and how about when he said this again, whatever, I don’t have to agree with it. Mm-hmm. You know, it’s like the Nazis marching in Skokie. Okay. They, they have the right to do that. I don’t agree with it. Well, I He like to see someone punch them in the face. Yes. But I don’t want that to be police doing it.

If some angry Jewish guy was about, well, okay, it’s fine with me, you know, I might even cheer him on, but I’m, no, I, I, I, again, I think you hit. It’s America. You have the right. And what about the, in the era of streaming, what about the future of late night? We heard Colbert is supposedly not profitable. I don’t know how true that is.

We heard similar threats about Jimmy’s show. How do you look at, you were a steward of the Tonight Show for 22 years. What do you think the future of this looks like? Well, I, I, I mean, when you could turn on streaming. And see Harrison Ford talk for half an hour saying whatever you want unscripted. Or you could watch him do a seven minute segment on a talk show, which you gonna do?

Or Jay Leno for 45 minutes unscripted. Yeah. But yeah. Well, I mean, to me, I think it just, the nature of television, it, it changes. It goes from one thing to another. I mean, it’s like going from CD players to cas cassettes, to CDs to it is just another. It’s another format that, that you can, that you can use.

So, uh, the thing that really kills late night is the incessant number of commercials. Mm-hmm. After 1130, you can run like nine minutes at 12 o’clock where some crazy. Yeah. It’s crazy. It’s wild. Yeah. So, and when you realize you’ve just watched all three Godfather movies in a row without one commercial, suddenly seeing Jake from State Farm again.

You know, okay, enough with this guy, you know, to me that’s the thing that’s really hurt. Late night. It’s not necessarily what people say. It’s the fact that people, oh God, another commercial, you just, you know, reading through. All right. So we don’t want to keep you all day ’cause we know you have a lot of places to go, cars to see.

Alright, I wanna, I wanna do a speed round, uh, a speed round, right. A dozen questions in under a minute. I’m just gonna throw these at you and, and gimme your answers. Alright. Starting with, what’s your favorite car to drive a dusenberg, what’s your favorite motorcycle in your garage? Uh, brush superior. What car offers the best bang for the buck?

Corvette, what’s your favorite car in your collection? Not necessarily a driver, but just the favorite car. Uh, McLarin one. That’s, that’s tough one to argue with. What’s been the biggest maintenance annoyance in your collection? Uh, my 1925 Doble Steam car. The one that kind of blew up. Is that the one we’re talking about?

That blew up, but that wasn’t the one that actually blew up in my face. No. Any cars you have any regrets passing on? Oh yeah. Was all. What modern car features do you find most annoying? Uh, probably the infotainment system. Uh, you know, I have my 51 Hudson. I reach out, I press a button, I get a station. I don’t have to stop and look at it.

Are you happy this thing? Yes. Would you make this election again? Yes. Others have made this election. Would you continue? Yes, I would. You know, would you pick your language? English is good. Thank you. You know, I it annoying. Um, what car do you drive the most often from your collection? Oh, I don’t know. Uh, well, hmm.

I drive a lot of them. Cardo. Uh, that’s what they were made for. A model t’s kind of fun, I guess I don’t drive it that much. Uh, probably the Mustang. That’s pretty good. Well, actually the Tesla won’t have to go to the airport and all those kind of things. What, what’s the rarest car in your collection? Not necessarily the most valuable, but one of very few.

Well, that would be the double steam car. Yeah. Mm-hmm. Um, is there any one brand you would never buy that you stay away from? No, no, not everyone breaks you. You don’t have a lot of Ferrari, right? No, I don’t have any Ferrari. But it has nothing to do with the cars. The cars are excellent. You know, for the longest time you had to buy two Manial before you’re allowed to buy the car.

You, you know, so I just never took part in that. What car surprises people the most, whether driving it or just the way it’s put together? Well, I have the kind of cars people. Not surprised that I got there earlier, late. They’re surprised I got there at all. When you show up in a 1906 Stanley Steamer and it’s on fire, people like, oh my God, your car’s on fire.

Yeah, I know. It’s supposed to. It’s supposed to be. You carry open flame in. Um, what’s the most recent addition to the collection? A Mustang, GTD. What’s the best sounding engine you own? Uh uh, um, Porsche GT V 10. And final question. Oh, is, is there one dream car you’re still hunting for? No. No. I’m, I’m, I’m.

Quite happy with what I have. Like I said, be happy what you have. Just make sure you have enough. There you go. Thank you Jay, for being so generous time. Alright, well thank, thank you. Thank you.

That was my live interview with Jay Leno at the Newport Audrey Concourse Elegance. If you enjoyed that conversation, check out any of the 592 we’ve done over the past 12 years. You can find those at iTunes, Spotify, Bloomberg, YouTube, wherever you get your favorite podcasts. And be sure to check out my new book, how Not to Invest the ideas, numbers, and Behavior that Destroys Wealth and how to avoid them at your favorite bookstore or book seller.

I would be remiss if I did not thank the correct team that puts these conversations together each week. My videographer at the live event was Sebastian Escobar. Alexis Noriega is my video producer, Anna Luke is my podcast producer. Sean Russo is my researcher. Sage Bauman is the head of podcast here at Bloomberg.

I’m Barry Ritholtz. You’ve been listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

 

 

 

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The post Transcript: Jay Leno, Live Audrain Newport Concours & Motor Week appeared first on The Big Picture.

The AI Arms Race Is Cracking Open The Nuclear Fuel Cycle

Authored by Michael Kern via OilPrice.com,

• The abstract "cloud" of artificial intelligence possesses a massive, structural demand for 24/7 "baseload" power that is equivalent to adding Germany's entire power grid by 2026, a need intermittent renewables cannot meet.

• Decades of underinvestment have resulted in a widening uranium supply deficit, with mined uranium expected to meet less than 75% of future reactor needs and an incentive price of $135/lb required to restart mothballed mines.

• Big Tech hyperscalers are privatizing energy security by locking in clean baseload nuclear power via long-term agreements, effectively making the public grid's "service" secondary to the "compute-ready" requirements of major platforms.

We are seeing a violent collision between two worlds: the high-speed, iterative world of artificial intelligence and the slow, grinding, capital-intensive world of nuclear physics. 

Data from a survey of over 600 global investors reveals that 63% now view AI electricity demand as a "structural" shift in nuclear planning. This isn't a temporary spike or a speculative bubble. It is the physical footprint of every Large Language Model (LLM) query finally showing up on the global balance sheet.

For years, the energy narrative was dominated by "efficiency." We were told that better chips would offset higher usage. That era is over. Generative AI doesn't just use data; it incinerates energy to create it.

Why the "Efficiency" Narrative Failed

The "Reverse-Polish" reality of AI is that the more efficient we make the chips, the more chips we deploy, and the more complex the models become. This is Jevons Paradox playing out in real-time across the data centers of Northern Virginia and Singapore.

When you look at the energy density required for an AI hyperscale center, you aren't looking at a traditional office building. You are looking at a facility that pulls as much power as a mid-sized city, but does so with a 99.999% uptime requirement.

Traditional demand models simply didn't account for a single industry deciding to double its power footprint in less than five years. S&P Global Energy recently highlighted that data center electricity consumption could hit 2,200 terawatt-hours (TWh). 

Intermittent renewables…the darlings of the corporate ESG report…cannot provide the 24/7 "baseload" these machines require...

The hyperscalers have realized that if they want to dominate AI, they need to secure physical atoms before the other guy does.

The $135 Ceiling and the Mining Reality Gap

While the demand side is moving at the speed of software, the supply side is stuck in the mud of 20th-century industrial timelines.

The uranium market is currently a "two-speed" machine. On one hand, you have short-term spot price volatility that makes traders nervous. On the other, you have a long-term supply deficit that is widening like a canyon. 

Data suggests that mined uranium will meet less than 75% of future reactor requirements.

We are living through the consequences of twenty years of underinvestment. After 2011, the world essentially stopped looking for uranium. We lived off the "secondary supply"...old Cold War warheads and utility stockpiles. Those stockpiles are now effectively exhausted.

More than 85% of investors surveyed anticipate uranium prices hitting the $100–$120/lb range by 2026. Some are looking at $135/lb.

I see these numbers, and I don't see "growth." I see a desperate incentive price. $135 isn't a sign of a healthy market… it is the price required to beg miners to reopen mothballed pits and navigate the ten-year permitting hellscape required for a greenfield project.

Mining is a "boots-on-the-ground" reality that doesn't care about digital timelines.

Who Collects the Equity and Who Pays the Bill?

There is a massive shift happening in the power dynamics of infrastructure. For decades, nuclear power was a public service…state-funded, state-regulated, and built for the citizen.

Now, we are seeing the "Private Platform" era of nuclear energy. When a hyperscaler signs a twenty-year Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with a nuclear utility, they are effectively "locking in" the best, cleanest baseload power for private profit.

The question we aren't asking: who pays for the grid upgrades to support this?

The hyperscalers want the green electrons to satisfy their net-zero pledges, but the physical copper and transformers required to move that power often fall on the rate-paying public or the state. We are witnessing the privatization of energy security.

If 63% of investors are right and AI is the new driver of nuclear planning, the "public service" aspect of the grid is about to become a secondary concern to the "compute-ready" requirements of Big Tech.

The equity is being collected by the tech platforms and the uranium miners. The risk is being socialized by the grid.

The Geopolitical Reality of Uranium Supply

We cannot talk about the uranium market without talking about the "Iron Fist" of state policy. The West is currently trying to rebuild a supply chain that it intentionally dismantled.

The U.S. and Europe are aggressively pushing "sustainable finance frameworks" to include nuclear, but they are doing so while facing a massive bottleneck in enrichment and conversion capacity…much of which is still tied to Russian state interests.

China, South Korea, and the UAE aren't waiting for the market to "find a price." They are treating nuclear as a matter of national survival. China is currently building more reactors than the rest of the world combined.

They understand something the West is only just realizing: you cannot run a 21st-century economy on 19th-century energy densities.

If the uranium supply remains constrained, we won't just see higher prices. We will see a geopolitical scramble for "off-take" agreements. The nation that secures the uranium secures the AI lead.

The "vibe" of energy abundance is a lie...We are entering an era of energy rationing by price.

The Technical Friction: Steel vs. Code

The most significant gap in the current market "bull case" is the technical audit of the hardware.

The survey data shows that investors are betting on "restarts" and "greenfield developments" to close the supply gap. But you can't just pour money into a hole and expect uranium to come out the next day.

Uranium mining is plagued by:

• Water Management Issues: Especially in places like Kazakhstan (the world's largest producer), where sulfuric acid shortages have already hampered production targets.

• Labor Scarcity: We have a generation of mining engineers who were told nuclear was dead. They didn't go to school for this.

• The Enrichment Bottleneck: Even if you have the yellowcake, you need to turn it into fuel. The West's capacity to do this is currently maxed out.

Sprott Asset Management correctly notes that utilities can only defer procurement for so long. Eventually, they have to buy. When they do, they will find a market where the physical steel and the chemical reagents are in shorter supply than the capital.

The "catch-up trade" of 2026 isn't just about price. It’s about the reality that we forgot how to build big things in the physical world.

The Bill for the Utopia

We are being sold a vision of AI-driven abundance…health breakthroughs, autonomous cities, and limitless productivity.

But to get that utopia, we need to solve a uranium deficit that has been building for twenty years. 

We need to build reactors at a pace not seen since the 1970s. 

And we need to do it while the primary producers are facing technical and geopolitical headwinds.

The $100–$120/lb range is just the beginning. If the supply response doesn't materialize…and given the 15-year lead times, why would it?  We are looking at a permanent state of high-cost energy for everyone who isn't a trillion-dollar tech company.

We are finally moving from a world of "clicks" back to a world of "kilowatts"...And the kilowatts are getting very, very expensive.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 12:20

Russia 'Confidently Advancing' In Ukraine, Over 30 Settlements Captured In December: Putin

Russian President Vladimir Putin has made clear to both his citizens and to the world that the 'special military operation' in Ukraine will continue on until all goals are achieved, and that his forces are advancing 'confidently'.

He chaired a televised meeting with the country's top military officials, focused on a status update regarding Ukraine, and crucially coming the day after Presidents Trump and Zelensky met in Florida in a failed effort to reach breakthrough on the proposed peace deal. Moscow is pressing ahead with its goal of fully capturing and pacifying the four Ukrainian regions it declared part of the Russian Federation in fall of 2022 via a 'popular referendum'.

"The goal of liberating the Donbas, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions is being carried out in stages, in accordance with the plan of the special military operation," Putin described before underscoring, "The troops are confidently advancing."

Sputnik/Reuters

At the meeting it was also announced that Russian troops have made more gains in the last 24 hours, especially the capture of Dibrova village in Donetsk region.

According to an update of the meeting via RT translation, battlefield gains of the past month are significant:

In December, Russian forces liberated over 700 square kilometers of territory, taking some 32 settlements under control, Gerasimov said at the meeting. This month, the military has shown the highest rate of progress in the entire outgoing year, he noted, adding that troops are advancing “along virtually the entire frontline.”

"The adversary is not undertaking any active offensive actions. They have concentrated their main efforts on strengthening their defenses and are attempting to slow the pace of our advance by conducting counterattacks in isolated areas and using drones en masse," Gerasimov said.

The Kremlin has at the same time reiterated that it is not interested in a 'Plan B or Plan C' in terms of a peace deal, but that it only seeks lasting political settlement. This will of course include international recognition of its territories in the Donbass.

According to highlights the Russian president’s speech after his meeting with top defense officials, via a TASS and Al Jazeera compilation:

• Attempts by Ukraine to interfere with the Russian army in Kupiansk must be decisively suppressed.
• The capture of Siversk allows for the development of offensives towards the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
• Prospects for the complete capture of the Donbas territory have been discussed.
• Expansion of the security zone along the Russian-Ukrainian border is on the table.
• Troops have broken through the Ukrainian defences and are advancing towards the city of Zaporizhzhia.

Putin tells Russian generals:

It’s necessary to continue the operation to gain control of the city of Zaporizhzhia. pic.twitter.com/AT0XkCbkV5

— Clash Report (@clashreport) December 29, 2025

Putin, surrounded by his generals, is making clear to the world that he remains in the driver's seat - with all the leverage on the field of battle - and that Zelensky has no cards to play.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 12:00