Individual Economists

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.6% YoY

Calculated Risk -

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For September, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 34.0% YoY, but still down 23.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 
 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 27.6% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending Oct. 26, 2024
Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 27.6% above year-ago levels.

For the 51st consecutive weeks dating back to November 2023, the number of listings for sale has grown year-over-year. This week’s growth was lower than last week’s, the fifth week of slowing growth, and the lowest annual change since April. Much of the inventory build up is due to more seller activity than buyer activity. However, if mortgage rates keep rising in the short term, we could see a decline in both seller and buyer activity.

New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale-increased 0.7% this week compared to one year ago.

The number of new listings on the market was lower than the same week last year. The recent upward trajectory of mortgage rates could largely discourage sellers from listing their homes ...
Realtor YoY Active ListingsHere is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 51st consecutive week.  
However, inventory is still historically low.
New listings remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.

October Employment Preview

Calculated Risk -

On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for October. The consensus is for 120,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%.

There were 254,000 jobs added in September, and the unemployment rate was at 4.1%.
From BofA:
We expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 100k in Oct after coming in at 254k in Sep. ... the u-rate should move back up to 4.2%, in part due to hurricane distortions.
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 95k in October, below consensus of +105k and the three-month average of +186k. Alternative measures of employment growth were mixed, and strikes and the recent hurricanes likely weighed on payrolls growth this month. ... We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%, in line with consensus.
ADP Report: The ADP employment report showed 233,000 private sector jobs were added in October.  This was well above consensus forecasts and suggests job gains above consensus expectations, however, in general, ADP hasn't been very useful in forecasting the BLS report (this also doesn't include the Boeing strike and probably misses some of the hurricane impact).

ISM Surveys: Note that the ISM indexes are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires).  The indexes will be released after the employment report.

Unemployment Claims: The weekly claims report showed more initial unemployment claims during the reference week at 242,000 in October compared to 222,000 in September.  This suggests more layoffs in October compared to September (likely due to hurricanes).

Strikes: The CES strike report shows 41,000 additional employees on strike during the reference period in October. This will reduce the headline jobs number.

Hurricane Impact: Analysts are trying to estimate the distortion from Hurrican Milton.  In September 2005, the initial BLS report showed a loss of 35 thousand jobs due to the impact of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (Katrina hit in late August, and Rita during the reference period in September).  This was eventually revised to a gain of 57 thousand (still well below the average for the year of 210 thousand per month.  Milton also made landfall during the reference period, so the BLS will try to adjust for impact.

Conclusion: Employment gains have average 167 thousand over the last 6 months. Subtracting 41 thousand for the strikes, and maybe 50 thousand for the hurricane impact would suggest employment gains will be below consensus expectations.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in September; Up 3.6% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk -

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in September; Up 3.6% Year-over-year

A brief excerpt:
Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.28% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in September. On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 3.6% in September, down from up 4.0% YoY in August.  The YoY increase peaked at 19.1% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in May 2023. ...

Freddie HPI CBSAAs of September, 11 states were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peak were in Florida (-2.2%), Louisiana (-1.8%), Arizona (-1.7%), North Carolina (-1.5), and Arkansas (-1.3%).

For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city. However, 17 of the 30 worst performing cities are now in Florida!

And 9 of the 12 worst performing cities are in Florida.
There is much more in the article.

Initial Jobless Claims Plunge To 6-Month-Lows

Zero Hedge -

Initial Jobless Claims Plunge To 6-Month-Lows

With the impacts of the hurricanes wearing off, initial jobless claims plunged last week to 216k (from 228k) - the lowest since April...

Source: Bloomberg

North Carolina has retraced all of its job losses from Helene and Florida is starting to recover from the claims spike after Milton...

Source: Bloomberg

Continuing Claims also fell, from 1.888mm Americans to 1.862mm Americans (but remains near its highest since Dec 2022...

Source: Bloomberg

So jobless claims at their lowest in six months - not exactly the kind of data that The Fed doves want to see to justify another rate-cut (we guess it all depends on who wins next week whether we get a cut or not?)

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/31/2024 - 08:48

Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Hotter Than Expected; Govt Handouts Soar As Savings Slump

Zero Hedge -

Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Hotter Than Expected; Govt Handouts Soar As Savings Slump

The Fed's favorite inflation indicator - Core PCE - printed hotter than expected in September  (+2.7% vs +2.6% exp), flat with August's 2.7% rise...

Source: Bloomberg

The headline PCE rose 0.2% MoM, which dragged down YoY PCE to +2.1% - its lowest since Feb 2021...

Source: Bloomberg

On a MoM basis, PCE appears to be accelerating with Durable Goods and Services costs picking up...

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, the so-called SuperCore PCE (Services Ex-Shelter) rose 0.3% MoM leaving the YoY cange 'sticky' at around 3.2%...

Source: Bloomberg

Of significant note is the fact that cyclical inflation is awkwardly stuck extremely high while the cyclical segment of inflation has reverted to normal...

Source: Bloomberg

Personal Incomes rose 0.3% MoM (as expected) but Spending rose by more (+0.5% vs 0.4% exp)...

Source: Bloomberg

But on a YoY basis, bond spending and income growth is slowing...

Source: Bloomberg

On the income side, Private wage growth 6.4% in Sept, unch while Government wage growth 6.7% in Sept, down from 6.9%, and well below record high 7.9% in March...

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, the savings rate declined. BUT, as is clear from out chart below, this new "revised higher" savings rate (that magicall creasted so much more wealth for Americans) is starting to fade fast (another revision needed?)...

Source: Bloomberg

...which means personal savings tumbled by $49 Billion in September to $1.00 trillion...

Source: Bloomberg

That's the 7th month of the last 8 that Americans have drained their savings (down $173BN since January)...

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, imagine how bad things would be if the government wasn't having over billions to 'we, the people' all of a sudden...

Source: Bloomberg

Not exactly the kind of data that enshrines The Fed with a god-given right to cut rates.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/31/2024 - 08:41

Personal Income increased 0.3% in September; Spending increased 0.5%

Calculated Risk -

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for September:
Personal income increased $71.6 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in September, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $57.4 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $105.8 billion (0.5 percent).

The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. Real DPI increased 0.1 percent in September and real PCE increased 0.4 percent; goods increased 0.7 percent and services increased 0.2 percent.
emphasis added
The September PCE price index increased 2.1 percent year-over-year (YoY), down from 2.3 percent YoY in August, and down from the recent peak of 7.0 percent in June 2022.
The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.7 percent YoY, unchanged from 2.7 percent in August, and down from the recent peak of 5.4 percent in February 2022.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through September 2024 (2017 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Personal Consumption Expenditures Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

Personal income was slightly below expectations, and PCE was slightly above expectations.
Inflation was close to expectations.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 216,000

Calculated Risk -

The DOL reported:
In the week ending October 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 216,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 227,000 to 228,000. The 4-week moving average was 236,500, a decrease of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 238,500 to 238,750.
emphasis added
The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 236,500.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were below the consensus forecast.

Futures Slide Dragged By Meta, Microsoft

Zero Hedge -

Futures Slide Dragged By Meta, Microsoft

Futures fell ahead of the busiest day of the earnings season, dragged down by META and MSFT which are both down about 4% following last night’s earnings releases. As of 8:00am ET S&P futures are down 0.6%, but off session lows; Nasdaq futures retreat about 0.7% after Microsoft and Meta growth outlooks fail to impress investors, with the pair together representing half of the losses in Nasdaq futures. The rest of Mag7 is also lower: AMZN, GOOG, NVDA are all down 1% - 1.4%. AAPL, which had been used as a funding source is -33bps. Bond yields are flat to down 1bps; the USD is flat. Cmdtys are getting hit with the global risk-off tone, but WTI is higher while Brent is lower. The macro data focus today is on ECI, Income/Spending, jobless claims, and the monthly PCE numbers. Mag7 earnings conclude (ex-NVDA which is Nov 20) with AAPL and AMZN.

In premarket trading, Microsoft shares dropped 3.6% after the software giant forecast slower quarterly cloud revenue growth. Morgan Stanley notes that supply constraints are continuing to limit growth in the GenAI-related businesses. Meta Platforms shares fall 2.6% after the Facebook parent reported third-quarter results. Analysts are broadly positive, but note that capital expenditure plans did raise concerns. Among other premarket stock movers, Uber slumped following a muted holiday forecast for the ride-hail service. Estee Lauder Cos. Inc. tumbled 18% after the cosmetics maker pulled its guidance for the year. EBay Inc. dropped after missing revenue forecasts. Comcast Corp. jumped after a profit beat. Here are all the notable premarket movers:

  • US-listed shares Arm Holdings (ARM) fell 4.47% after Bernstein lowered its view on the chip-design company — one of the biggest winners of this year’s artificial intelligence spending boom.
  • Biogen (BIIB) shares slip 1.2% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the drugmaker to equalweight from overweight saying the launch of its Alzheimer’s drug, Leqembi “has tracked below our expectations.”
  • Carvana (CVNA) shares soar 20% after the used car retailer reported another strong quarter as sales growth coupled with cost-cutting measures helped boost profits. Analysts note strong retail unit sales growth and encouraging earnings trends.
  • Coinbase (COIN) shares fall 2.7% after the cryptocurrency platform operator’s earnings fell short of expectations, with analysts pointing to an impact from weaker crypto asset prices during the quarter. The update prompted some brokers to question Coinbase’s competitive advantage going forward.
  • DoorDash (DASH) shares rise 3.5% after the food delivery company reported earnings that surpassed analyst expectations and issued strong guidance for the fourth quarter as its market share grows. Brokers said the update bodes well for next year and profitability going forward.
  • EBay (EBAY) shares drop 7.9% after the e-commerce company’s projections for the fourth quarter fell short of analyst expectations. Baird said the outlook reflected the decision to move to a no-fee model in the UK for consumer-to-consumer (C2C) transactions.
  • Etsy (ETSY) rises 5.2% after the retailer reported third-quarter results in which revenue, and marketplace revenue, beat estimates. Analysts are generally positive on take rate and profitability but see guidance as mixed
  • Estée Lauder (EL) shares fell 20% after the beauty company pulled its guidance for the year, citing uncertainty over a new chief executive and weak demand in China.
  • Meta Platforms (META) shares fall 2.6% after the Facebook parent reported third-quarter results. Analysts are broadly positive, but note that capital expenditure plans did raise concerns.
  • Merck & Co. (MRK) fell 1.3% after the company lowered the top end of its full-year sales guidance after demand for its HPV vaccine fell for a second straight quarter in China.
  • Microsoft (MSFT) shares drop 3.6% after the software giant forecast slower quarterly cloud revenue growth. Morgan Stanley notes that supply constraints are continuing to limit growth in the GenAI-related businesses.
  • Robinhood (HOOD) shares fall 11% after failing to meet high revenue expectations. While analysts point to disappointing key metrics for 3Q, they are generally encouraged by management commentary and October trading conditions.
  • Root (ROOT) shares soar 81% after the auto insurance platform said it reached net income profitability for the first time as third-quarter revenue topped estimates.
  • Starbucks (SBUX) rose 0.4% after the coffee chain reported fourth-quarter earnings. Since the company preannounced the results last week, analysts were focused on strategic changes that were laid out by new CEO Brian Niccol. Morgan Stanley said Niccol’s vision was “aspirational, like the Starbucks brand when at its best,” while TD Cowen said Niccol had succeeded in diagnosing the challenges faced by the company.
  • Twilio (TWLO) shares jump 13% after the cloud communications firm showed continued improvement in its operating margins, spurring Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan to raise their price targets on the stock. Twilio also upgraded its organic revenue growth guidance for the full year.

The disappointing set of results from Microsoft and Meta was hurting sentiment, said Marija Veitmane, a senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Global Markets. Investors are questioning whether the companies can sustain profit growth while ramping up spending on artificial intelligence and cloud services.

"The market is concerned with the continued increase in investments, and that is likely to weigh on stocks in the short term,” she said. “In the medium term, however, we still see weakness in tech stocks as a buying opportunity. It’s a very crowded position, so it is getting sold on any sign of disappointment, but we always see investors coming back as there’s no other alternative if you want quality."

The dollar and treasuries were steady (more below) , with the two-year Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to interest-rate moves, hovering at a three-month high. In addition to the resilient US economy, investors are worried that a resurgence in inflation after the US election may delay or prevent interest-rate cuts.

“Who becomes president changes the perspective of the investment cycle,” Daniel Yoo, head of asset allocation, Yuanta Securities, said on Bloomberg Television, highlighting the potential effects of higher tariffs and lower corporate taxes under a potential Donald Trump presidency. “That will probably accelerate the process of inflation pressure and therefore the lowering of interest rates may be taken at a slower pace or not even happen.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 retreated for a third day after its worst day since September and on track for its biggest monthly decline in a year. French lender BNP Paribas SA was the biggest drag on the index, plunging more than 7% after reporting third-quarter earnings. Peers BBVA SA, Banco Sabadell SA and ING Groep NV also dropped after their results. Societe Generale SA stood out among lenders, soaring 11% after beating estimates. Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday:

  • SocGen shares advanced as much as 11%, most since March 2022, after beating 3Q estimates on the back of higher trading income and a rebound in the French retail business.
  • Jeronimo Martins shares rise as much as 10% after the operator of Polish grocery chain Biedronka reported a third-quarter earnings beat, providing signs of recovery in sales and margins.
  • Geberit shares jumped as much as 7.1%, most in nearly a year, after the Swiss maker of building materials boosted its guidance for the full year as management expects more robust development in the renovations business.
  • Erste shares gain as much as 5.8% to the highest level since 2007 after the bank raised its forecast for net interest income growth this year.
  • Airbus gains as much as 3.8%, the most since Oct. 17, after the planemaker reported third-quarter results that topped analysts’ expectations.
  • Maersk shares rise as much as 3.3% after the Danish shipping company’s results showed improvement in the logistics division, while the ocean division’s higher rates drove revenue and Ebitda.
  • Stellantis shares rise as much as 1.6% as analysts say the carmaker’s European revenue helped offset woes in North America, thanks to stronger-than-expected mix.
  • SoftwareOne shares tumbled as much as 28%, to a new record low after the Swiss IT service provider cut its margin guidance for the full year - the second downgrade in the space of a few months.
  • Smith & Nephew shares plunge as much as 14%, after the medical devices company reported results for the third quarter that disappointed analysts and cut its outlook for the year.
  • BNP shares fall as much as 7.5% with analysts pointing to disappointment in the lender’s retail banking trends, especially in France and Belgium, while its capital was weak.
  • AB InBev slides as much as 4.5% after reporting a sharper drop in organic volumes than anticipated in the last quarter, leading to sales and Ebitda growing less than expected.
  • AXA shares fall as much as 2.2% after nine-month results, with the French insurer’s solvency ratio a small disappointment for analysts.

Earlier in the session, shares in Japan, Australia and South Korea declined, weighing on an index of the region’s equities, which headed for its worst monthly performance since August 2023. Mainland Chinese shares were mixed and those in Hong Kong rose, after a report showing monthly Chinese manufacturing data registered its first expansionary reading since April. Kospi drops almost 1% after Samsung chip profit disappoints. Hang Seng climbs 0.5% and mainland indexes advance after Chinese factory activity unexpectedly expands. The BOJ kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged after uncertainties increased over the outlook of the economy and the stability of the government after the ruling coalition suffered its worst electoral result since 2009. The yen strengthened below 153 per dollar.

In rates, treasuries advance across the curve in a moderate bull-flattening move, with 5s30s spread back to tightest level since July. US yields richer by as much as 3bp across the curve with 2s10s, 5s30s spreads flatter by 1bp and 2bp on the day; 10-year near 4.28% is ~2.5bp richer on the day with UK 10-year underperforming by around 8bp. European bonds dipped after data showed euro-area inflation accelerated more than expected in October — matching the ECB's target and boosting arguments for interest rates to be lowered gradually. Treasuries also sharply outperform gilts as UK financial markets absorb Labour government’s plans for increased borrowing and fiscal stimulus. UK front-end yields are up about 10bp in an aggressive bear-flattening move as money markets unwind the extent of Bank of England interest-rate cuts expected in 2025. UK 10-year yields rose another 6 bps to 4.41% - the highest since November 2023. Bunds also fall, albeit to a lesser extent. German 10-year yields rise 2 bp to 2.40% with little reaction to an upside surprise in euro-area headline and core inflation for October.  US session includes employment cost index, weekly jobless claims and PCE price indexes.

In FX, the dollar slipped, though it remains on pace for its best month in more than two years as investors trimmed bets on Fed policy easing after robust economic-growth and jobs data Wednesday. One-week implied volatility on the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose to the highest since December 2022, indicating that traders expect wild swings in the greenback over the US presidential election. The Japanese yen topped the G-10 FX leader board, rising 0.7% against the greenback after the BOJ left rates on hold and maintained it’s on track to achieve its inflation target.

In commodities, oil edged higher, extending its gains from the previous session; WTI rose 0.7% to $69.10. Gold dropped after touching a fresh record in the prior session; spot traded down $6 to $2,781/oz. Demand for the precious metal was partly supported by the uncertainty posed by next week’s vote.

Looking at today's calendar, US economic data calendar includes October Challenger job cuts (7:30am), 3Q employment cost index, September personal income and spending with embedded PCE price indexes, jobless claims (8:30am) and October MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am, several minutes earlier to subscribers). Fed officials are in self-imposed quiet period ahead of Nov. 7 policy announcement.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.8% to 5,803.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.6% to 508.62
  • MXAP down 0.2% to 186.49
  • MXAPJ down 0.4% to 591.63
  • Nikkei down 0.5% to 39,081.25
  • Topix down 0.3% to 2,695.51
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 20,317.33
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,279.82
  • Sensex down 0.7% to 79,416.69
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 8,160.03
  • Kospi down 1.5% to 2,556.15
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.40%
  • Euro little changed at $1.0857
  • Brent Futures down 0.2% to $72.38/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $2,778.56
  • US Dollar Index little changed at 103.96

Top Overnight News

  • China’s NBS manufacturing PMI for Oct came in at 50.1, above the Street’s 49.9 forecast, up from 49.8 in Sept, and higher than the 50 expansion/contraction demarcation point for the first time in 6 months as the government’s stimulus measures show signs of bolstering activity. China’s NBS non-manufacturing PMI for Oct came in at 50.2, up from 50 in Sept but a tiny bit below the consensus forecast of 50.3  RTRS
  • China tells its auto makers to halt major investments in Eurozone countries that support higher EV tariffs. RTRS  
  • The yen climbed after BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said currency movements are having a major impact on the economy and price trends. Policymakers kept rates unchanged, as expected, and signaled the central bank’s on track for further rate hikes. BBG
  • France’s CPI for Oct came in at +1.5%, up 10bp from Sept and inline w/the Street (the +1.5% remains far below the ECB’s 2% target). BBG
  • Lebanon’s PM said Israel and Hezbollah could agree to a ceasefire agreement within days. RTRS
  • OPEC+ could delay its planned production hike beyond Dec as it looks to bolster oil prices. RTRS  
  • BNP shares dropped as its largest operating business continued to suffer headwinds including ill-timed hedges. BBG
  • Uber fell premarket after it reported weaker-than-expected ride bookings and issued a middling forecast for the holiday quarter. BBG
  • Microsoft shares fell premarket after a disappointing forecast for its Azure cloud-computing business, though Bloomberg Intelligence sees growth picking up in the second half. Meta also declined after warning of worsening AI losses. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed albeit with most major indices subdued following the negative handover from the US and heading into month-end, while participants also digested a slew of data releases including somewhat mixed Chinese PMIs. ASX 200 declined amid losses in utilities and consumer stocks with retailer Coles pressured after its quarterly update. Nikkei 225 briefly dipped beneath the 39,000 level after mixed data and cautiousness heading into the BoJ announcement which lacked any major fireworks as the central bank kept rates unchanged as expected and refrained from any fresh policy clues. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned with earnings in focus and strength in Chinese banks after the Big 4 registered profit growth,  although the upside was limited in the mainland after the mixed PMI data which showed manufacturing activity topped estimates and printed at a surprise expansion although non-manufacturing missed forecasts.

BOJ/Top Asian News

  • BoJ kept its short-term policy rate unchanged at 0.25%, as expected, through a unanimous decision and said it will conduct monetary policy from perspective of sustainably and stably achieving the 2% price target, while it stated given that real interest rates are at very low levels, the BoJ will continue to raise the policy rate if the economy and prices move in line with its forecast. BoJ said Japan's economy is recovering moderately although some weaknesses are observed and underlying consumer inflation is likely to be at a level generally consistent with the 2% target in the second half of the projection period through fiscal 2026. BoJ also stated that risks to prices are skewed to the upside for FY 2025 and noted uncertainty surrounding Japan's economy and prices remains high. Furthermore, it must be vigilant to financial and FX market moves and their impact on the economy and prices, as well as scrutinise US and overseas economic developments, while it added that financial conditions remain accommodative and it mostly maintained its forecasts in the Outlook Report.
  • BoJ's Ueda says the domestic economy is recovering moderately, though some weak moves are seen. Did not need to use the language at this meeting that they can afford to spend time scrutinising risks. Uncertainties remain but markets have slowly regains stability. Can't currently say how much wages would need to increase for them to hike further; if wage hikes are similar to this year's Spring negotiations that would be a "positive development", but that does not mean we decide to hike with only that

European bourses, Stoxx 600 (-0.7%) began the European session entirely in the red, and continued to traverse worse levels throughout the morning. European sectors hold a strong negative bias; Construction & Materials takes the top spot whilst Retail is found at the foot of the pile. US Equity Futures (ES -0.8% NQ -1.1% RTY -0.4%) are entirely in the red, with sentiment hit following post-earning losses tech heavyweights Meta (-3.8%) and Microsoft (-3.8%).

Top European News

  • UK Chancellor Reeves says there will be more plans to boost growth. Is not going to come back for more money in the spring. Commenting on yesterday's budget, says "will not have to do anything like that ever again".
  • ECB President Lagarde said the inflation goal is in sight but cannot say inflation is completely under control, while they will base the size and order of cuts on economic data. Lagarde added that no Euro area recession is expected in 2024-2026 and she reaffirmed commitment to a continued interest rate reduction, according to Le Monde.
  • German engineering orders -8% Y/Y in September (Domestic -15%; Foreign Orders -5%); Jun-Sept-4% Y/Y (Domestic -16%, Foreign Orders Unch.), according to VDMA.
  • ECB's Panetta says rates need to come down; inflation is easing and need to pay attention to weakness of the economy. ECB needs to avoid the risk of pushing inflation below target.

Earnings

  • Meta Platforms Inc (META) Q3 2024 (USD): EPS 6.03 (exp. 5.24), Revenue 40.59bln (exp. 40.27bln). Expects Q4 total revenue to be in the range of USD 45bln-48bln (exp. 46.3bln). Co. shares were lower by 3.1% after-hours with some desks questioning the Co.'s growth outlook amid potential AI-related losses
  • Microsoft Corp (MSFT) Q1 2025 (USD): EPS 3.30 (exp. 3.10), Revenue 65.6bln (exp. 64.51bln). Microsoft Cloud revenue 38.9bln (exp. 38.11bln). Co. shares were lower by 3.7% after-hours following its disappointing cloud growth forecast
  • Amgen Inc (AMGN) Q3 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 5.58 (exp. 5.11), Revenue 8.50bln (exp. 8.52bln)
  • Shell (SHEL LN) Q3 (USD): Adj. Profit 6.03bln (exp. 5.39bln), Adj. EBITDA 16bln (exp. 15.40bln); plans a share buyback program of USD 3.5bln; Cuts FY24 Capex "less than" 22bln (prev. guided 22-25bln). Shares +1.1%
  • Stellantis (STLAM IM/STLAP FP) Q3 (EUR) Revenue 33bln (exp. 33.1bln); notes it is clear the Chinese rivals are coming into Europe and taking a "very aggressive stance"; affirms guidance. Shares +2.4%
  • STMicroelectronics (STM FP) Q3 (USD): EPS 0.37 (exp. 0.33), Revenue 3.25bln (exp. 3.22bln). Guides Q4 Revenue 3.32bln (exp. 3.38bln). Trims FY24 revenue 13.3bln (exp. 13.3bln, prev. guided 13.2-13.7bln). Launches new company-wide program to restore manufacturing footprint; "based on our current customer order backlog and demand visibility, we anticipate a revenue decline between Q4'24 and Q1'25 well above seasonality."(Newswires) Shares -2.4%
  • TotalEnergies (TTE FP) Q3 (USD): adj. Net Income 4.07bln (exp. 4.27bln), adj. EBITDA 10bln (exp. 10.06bln); confirms investment guidance for 2024; interim dividend of EUR 0.79/shr for FY, +7% Y/Y; to execute a USD 2bln share buyback in Q4. Shares -7.2%
  • Maersk (MAERSKB DC) Q3 (USD): Revenue 15.7bln (exp. 14.78bln), PBT 3.25bln (exp. 2.3bln), EBIT 3.3bln (exp. 2.99bln), EBITDA 4.8bln (exp. 4.4bln), EPS 193 (ex. 178). Lifted guidance. Shares +2.1%

FX

  • DXY is lower as JPY strength acts as a drag on the index. Today sees core PCE metrics and weekly jobless claims, ahead of NFP on Friday. DXY is currently just below the 104 mark after briefly dipping below Wednesday's trough at 103.97.
  • Little follow-through for the EUR from above-expected EZ CPI given that regional releases had suggested such an outcome. EUR/USD is currently in close proximity to its 200DMA at 1.0869 and yesterday's high at 1.0871.
  • GBP is attempting to claw back Wednesday's post-budget losses, whereby concerns around borrowing forecasts from the OBR have subsequently embedded more of a fiscal risk premium into the GBP. Cable has been unable to make its way back onto a 1.30 handle and is currently stuck below its 100DMA at 1.2976.
  • JPY has strengthened in the wake of the BoJ policy decision. The announcement itself provided little in the way of surprises. However, the JPY began to pick up steam as Governor Ueda spoke and downplayed concerns over financial stability risks acting as an impediment to further policy tightening. USD/JPY briefly made its way onto a 151 handle but has since stabilised around the 152.50 mark.
  • Antipodeans are both broadly steady vs. the USD. No real follow through seen for AUD from mixed Australian Retail Sales, nor mixed Chinese PMI metrics.

Fixed Income

  • Gilts gapped lower from Wednesday’s 94.92 close, briefly stabilised and attempted a rebound but remained around 24 ticks shy of that mark at best. Benchmark down to a 94.05 base, 28 ticks below Wednesday’s trough and at a fresh contract low; UK paper then lifted off worst levels after a relatively strong Green 2053 outing.
  • Bunds were weighed on, in-fitting with Gilts into Flash HICP for October. The pan-EZ figure came in hotter-than-expected, but given the skew from data earlier in the week this had no real impact. Bunds down to 131.32 at worst this morning, since picked up modestly and erring back towards opening levels but remain well into the red overall.
  • USTs are softer as Gilts weigh on the complex generally and as we look ahead to today’s monthly PCE number before tomorrow’s NFP print, a payrolls report which has the potential to print sub-zero. At a 110-14 trough, half a tick below Wednesday’s base.
  • UK sells GBP 2.25bln 1.50% 2053 Green: b/c 3.15x (prev. 3.26x), average yield 4.831% (prev. 4.545%), tail 0.5bps (prev. 0.6bps)

Commodities

  • Crude is in the green but only modestly so. Action which comes amidst a soft USD and as the geopolitical environment remains tense. Brent Jan'25 currently holding around USD 72.50/bbl.
  • Spot gold is softer while the correlation has broken down, ongoing UK-led yield upside is likely weighing. The yellow metal awaits key US data today and tomorrow, currently towards session lows around USD 2773/oz.
  • Base metals are mixed. LME Copper essentially unchanged as we await key US events over the next few days/week which will help determine the near/medium-term macro direction. Furthermore, leads from China were mixed with Manufacturing PMI making its way just back into expansionary territory though non-manufacturing missed consensus slightly.
  • Energy Intel's Bakr says, re. recent OPEC+ source reports, that "they didn’t even talk about this yet".

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • Lebanon’s Prime Minister said they hope for a ceasefire with Israel in the coming hours or days.
  • Cypriot President said he is optimistic that a ceasefire in Lebanon could be reached in the next 1-2 weeks.
  • Israeli military said it attacked fuel reservoirs in Lebanon's Bekaa region located in military complexes of Hezbollah's logistical empowerment unit, while it added that Iran is behind supplying Hezbollah with fuel as part of its military support and it targeted oil depots belonging to Hezbollah's 4400 Logistics Armament Unit in the Bekaa.
  • Hezbollah bombed gatherings of Israeli enemy soldiers in the settlement of Kiryat Shmona with a rocket barrage.
  • CNN cited a senior source familiar with Iran's intentions who stated that the Israeli attack would be met with a "decisive and painful response", while the source did not provide a date but said it would "likely take place before the US election".
  • Israel Broadcasting Corporation reported that Tel Aviv is considering launching a large-scale pre-emptive attack against Iran, according to Sky News Arabia.
  • White House said the US will support Israel if Iran does respond.

Geopolitics: Other

  • North Korea launched a ballistic missile towards the East Sea which set a new record, while North Korean leader Kim said the missile test was appropriate military activity as their enemies' dangerous moves have emphasised the need to strengthen the nuclear force and North Korea will never change its stance of strengthening its nuclear arsenal, via KCNA.
  • South Korea's National Security Council plans to designate new sanctions on North Korea and South Korea's military said the US is to respond to North Korea's missile test by deploying strategic assets for drills, according to Yonhap.
  • South Korean Defence Minister said Russia could aid North Korea with technology for tactical nuclear weapons and ICBMs in exchange for North Korean troops.
  • White House said the US condemns North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missile test, but noted North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missile test did not pose an immediate threat to US personnel, territory, or its allies.
  • Japanese PM Ishiba will hold a national security council meeting and Defence Minister Nakatani said they will closely cooperate with the US and South Korea over North Korea's missile launch.

US Event Calendar

  • 07:30: Oct. Challenger Job Cuts YoY 50.9%, prior 53.4%
  • 08:30: Oct. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 230,000, prior 227,000
    • Oct. Continuing Claims, est. 1.88m, prior 1.9m
  • 08:30: Sept. Personal Income, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
    • Sept. Personal Spending, est. 0.4%, prior 0.2%
    • Sept. Real Personal Spending, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
    • Sept. PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%
    • Sept. PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.1%, prior 2.2%
    • Sept. Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
    • Sept. Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.6%, prior 2.7%
  • 08:30: 3Q Employment Cost Index, est. 0.9%, prior 0.9%
  • 09:45: Oct. MNI Chicago PMI, est. 47.0, prior 46.6

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Happy Halloween to you all. If you want to be scared I’m going to a Halloween themed fancy dress party tomorrow night as Marilyn Manson. The PVC trousers have arrived from Amazon and my wife is licking her lips at applying make-up to me! There’s been lots of tricks and treats for markets over the last 24 hours with some of the highlights being a -22.3% drop for the Trump Media and Technology group, a 10-13bps rise in 2yr European yields and a 15bps climb in Gilt yields off the lows for the day across the curve after the budget. Just as it looked like US moves were going to be tame by comparison a late sell-off encouraged US 2yr yields +8.6bps on the day. It's a big day today with US PCE inflation, a continuation of European inflation numbers that helped move markets yesterday, and Apple and Amazon reporting after the closing bell.

The big move in Trump’s media group was partly down to fresh CNN polls which showed Harris with sizeable +5pt and +6pt leads in the swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin, although still tied with Trump in Pennsylvania. These stronger polls saw the FiveThirtyEight model’s probability of a Trump victory decline to 51% from 54% the day before, while the odds on Polymarket fell from 67% to 64%. To be fair, much of the decline in Trump Media may have reflected its sharp recent rise (+324% from the low in late September), with a large correction always possible after such a run up in a short space of time. The reversal in other Trump proxy trades was more modest, with Bitcoin down -1.14%.

Over in Europe, the big moves followed stronger-than-expected GDP and inflation data. The first showed euro area GDP growing by a solid +0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 (vs. +0.2% expected), with upside surprises in Germany (+0.2% vs -0.1% expected), France (+0.4% vs +0.3%) and Spain (+0.8% vs +0.6%) outweighing the downside in Italy (0.0% vs. +0.2% expected). On the inflation side, Germany’s flash inflation print for October saw the harmonised HICP measure come in at +2.4% yoy (vs. +2.1% expected). Following this upside surprise, our European economists see today’s euro area release tracking at 1.96% yoy for headline HICP and 2.69% yoy for core, nearly a tenth higher than they expected prior to yesterday.

The stronger data saw hawkish-leaning ECB officials speak in favour of only gradual easing, with Schnabel saying that “a gradual approach to removing policy restriction remains appropriate”, while Nagel commented that “my advice is to remain cautious and not to rush”. Market pricing of a 50bps rate cut by the ECB in December fell from 41% to 20% yesterday, with -11.2bps of cuts priced out over the next three meetings in total. 2yr bund yields (+11.5bps) posted their largest increase in over three weeks, with OATs (+11.0bps) and BTPs (+12.5bps) seeing similar moves. At the long-end, 10yr bund yields (+5.1bps) rose to their highest in three months at 2.39%, while 10yr BTPs (+7.5bps) underperformed after the weak GDP data there.

Stronger data also helped to put upward pressure on US yields, albeit after an initial false start. 2yr and 10yr Treasury yields ended the day +8.6bps and +4.6bps higher, respectively, with the 10yr reaching 4.30% for the first time since early July. It's dipped back to 4.276% this morning in Asia. The highlight of the data was a strong rise in the ADP employment survey (+233k vs +111k expected) ahead of Friday’s payrolls release. We also had Q3 GDP, which came in a touch beneath expectations (+2.9% vs +2.8%) but with strong growth in personal consumption (+3.7% vs +3.3% expected), and the September pending home sales print, which saw the strongest monthly jump since the first post-Covid lockdown rebound in summer 2020 (+7.4% vs. +1.9% expected).

Here in the UK, gilts actually outperformed the euro area and the US with yields ‘only’ 3-5bps higher across the curve. That was mostly thanks to a decline early in the day before the budget announcement. However, 2yr yields then rose as much as 24bps off the lows at one point, with long-end yields rising only slightly less. This came as the market digested a post-budget announcement from the UK Debt Management Office that gross financing needs for 2024/25 would be GBP 23bn higher than projected back in April, with a further GBP 145bn cumulative increase over the following 4 years. Yields settled back down 5 to 10bps from the highs before the close but it was certainly a volatile session. In terms of implications for the BoE, the market takeaway was that it would likely keep rates higher for longer with the June 2025 pricing rising by +15.9bps on the day.

Our UK economist Sanjay Raja notes that this is very much a historic budget in its scale, with announced net spending measures adding up to GBP 70bn a year on average over the next five years, partially offset by GBP 36bn a year in net tax increases. All up, this marks one of the largest fiscal loosening of any UK fiscal event in decades. See Sanjay’s full reaction piece here.

Equities had a relatively challenging session, amid a rout for chipmakers that saw the Philadelphia semiconductor index fall by -3.35%. That had some specific drivers, with Advanced Micro Devices falling -10.62% after its underwhelming results the previous evening, while server maker Super Micro Computer fell by -32.7% after its auditor resigned from its role, citing “integrity” concerns. The NASDAQ fell by -0.56%, though the Mag-7 (-0.02%) was essentially unchanged, helped by Alphabet’s +2.82% rise after its results. And US equities did not fare too badly otherwise, with 49% of the S&P 500 stocks higher on the day, as financials (+0.42%) and real estate (+0.39%) outperformed amid the stronger data. Over in Europe, tech losses led more substantial declines, with the Stoxx 600 (-1.25%) seeing its weakest session in over a month as all of its 25 industry groups fell on the day.

After the US market close, earnings reports from Microsoft and Meta added to the more negative tech mood. Microsoft delivered an upbeat Q3 performance, but announced a weaker forecast for cloud revenue growth, while Meta’s narrow beat was overshadowed by its warning of still rising losses from its Reality Labs division that focuses on AI and augmented reality. Both stocks fell by between -3% and -4% in after-hours trading. This morning, the Nasdaq 100 futures are -0.71%, underperforming S&P 500 (-0.50%).

In the commodity space oil prices rose by more than 2% yesterday following a Reuters report that OPEC+ could delay the oil output hike planned for December and EIA data showing a decline in US stockpiles of crude and refined products.

Overnight in Asia, most main equity indices are struggling with the Nikkei 225 (-0.43%) and the Kospi (-1.16%) trailing Chinese markets as the CSI 300 (-0.03%) and the Hang Seng (+0.15%) manage to slightly outperform. In terms of macro events, there was a hold from the BoJ overnight, with the yen subsequently strengthening, as well as an upbeat official manufacturing PMI print from China, with the gauge moving back above 50 (50.1 vs 49.9 expected) for the first time since April, while the non-manufacturing index showed a small miss (50.2 vs 50.3 expected).

Looking to the day ahead, in terms of US data we will have the personal income and spending data for September, including the PCE inflation print, as well as the Q3 employment cost indicator and the weekly jobless claims. In Europe, we get the October inflation prints for France, Italy and the euro area, while ECB’s Panetta and BoE’s Breeden are due to speak. In earnings, Apple and Amazon will round off this week’s Mag-7 releases, with Mastercard, Uber, Merck and Intel other highlights in the US. In Europe, earnings include AB Inbev, TotalEnergies and AP Moller - Maersk.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/31/2024 - 08:19

Saudi Arabia Vows To Maintain Its Status As An Oil Giant

Zero Hedge -

Saudi Arabia Vows To Maintain Its Status As An Oil Giant

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

  • Saudi Arabia aims to maintain its position as a major oil producer, ensuring global energy security.

  • The country plans to increase its oil production capacity by 1.1 million bpd by 2027.

  • Simultaneously, Saudi Arabia is committed to its renewable energy goals, targeting 44 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030.

As Saudi Arabia prepares to tender 44 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy projects, it will continue to maintain its oil-producing potential to ensure global energy security, officials from the Kingdom said at the annual investment forum in Riyadh on Tuesday.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest crude oil exporter, will keep its maximum sustainable capacity of 12.3 million barrels per day (bpd) going forward.

By 2027, the Kingdom will have more than 1.1 million bpd of production of oilfields currently under development, which are expected to offset the natural decline of legacy fields.

Saudi Aramco, the state oil giant, plans to boost the production capacity of its Marjan, Berri, and Zuluf oilfields and add more supply from the Dammam crude oil development in 2027, according to a presentation at the Future Investment Initiative summit in Riyadh.

At the same time, Saudi Arabia plans to have tendered a total of 44 GW of renewable energy projects by the end of this year.

By 2030, it expects to have 130 GW of renewable energy projects, based on demand growth.

Even with the ambitious program to boost renewables and power grids, Saudi Arabia is not abandoning its pre-eminence in the global oil markets.

While the world is moving towards an energy transition, all forms of energy would be absolutely needed to ensure global energy security, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz Bin Salman, said at the forum, as quoted by Amena Bakr, Senior Research Analyst at Energy Intelligence.

The Kingdom will “continue monetizing its energy resources while attending to climate change,” said the Saudi minister, the most influential minister in OPEC and OPEC+.

Earlier this month, Saudi Aramco’s chief executive Amin Nasser called for what he dubbed a reset in the transition plans for developing countries, citing strong projected growth in oil demand for the Global South.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/31/2024 - 05:00

Moscow Warns German Arms Factory In Ukraine Is 'A Legitimate Target'

Zero Hedge -

Moscow Warns German Arms Factory In Ukraine Is 'A Legitimate Target'

The Dusseldorf-based German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall this week announced that it has completed delivery of twenty more 20 Marder 1A3 infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) to Ukraine.

But its relationship with Kiev has gone much further, becoming among the very first major European arms companies to open a factory in Ukraine. This has provoked outrage among Kremlin officials, who are now warning that military action could be taken against the Rheinmetall plant.

Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov has told reporters in a briefing that "A plant of Rheinmetall, a German arms manufacturer, launched in Ukraine, is a legitimate military target for the Russian Armed Forces."

Rheinmetall ceo Armin Papperger. AFP/Getty Images

"Certainly it is," he emphasized in response to a question on whether the factory is now a target by being established inside Ukraine.

Not only is the German company going to produce armored vehicles, and maintain and repair them from inside the war-ravaged country, but it is even seeking to develop a local gunpowder and munitions plan.

TASS notes that Rheinmetall is NATO member Germany’s largest defense contractor. "It substantially profits from the Ukrainian conflict and anticipates further increased revenues. In 2023, its turnover went up by 12%, to 7.1 bln euros, with its net income growing by 9%, up to 0.6 bln euros," the report reviews.

Rheinmetall has indicated it eventually plans to open no less than four military production installations inside Ukraine, with the ammo side expected to begin within the next two years.

The company downplayed the Tuesday threat from Peskov, saying the "production of weapons in Ukraine is well protected and this is not the first time they have heard threats from the Kremlin." It plans to move forward despite the threats.

Among Russia's key rationales for the February 2022 invasion was to 'demilitarize' Ukraine amid accusations that NATO is building up its military infrastructure inside the country which shares a large border with Russia. But now it appears the Western military alliance is rushing to do just that.

CEO of Rheinmetall AG, Armin Papperger, issued the following statement earlier this week: "Things are progressing. The first plant is already ready. The second one is on the way. And now I insist on speeding up all of this work, because we don't have much time, we shouldn't waste it."

Papperger added, "We are fully committed to supporting Ukraine’s defense industry, ensuring that essential equipment can be produced and maintained within the country."

Pro-Russian pundits have underscored that this makes peaceful settlement more & more unlikely:

This past summer US intelligence officials made an astounding claim, later denied by Russia:

U.S. intelligence discovered that Russia planned to assassinate the chief executive of German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall which has been producing artillery shells and military vehicles for Ukraine, CNN and the New York Times reported on Thursday.

The plot to kill Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger was one of a series of Russian government plans to assassinate defense industry executives across Europe who were supporting Ukraine's war effort, CNN reported, citing five unidentified U.S. and Western officials as saying the plot was discovered earlier this year.

Ukrainian officials and media have hailed the strong support from the German arms giant, saying of factory development in the country, "One down, three to go." It remains uncertain what NATO would do in the event its factories are actually targeted, given this could induce Brussels to invoke Article 5.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/31/2024 - 04:15

China Hemorrhages Third Of All Billionaires Amid Property Market Crisis 

Zero Hedge -

China Hemorrhages Third Of All Billionaires Amid Property Market Crisis 

Chinese billionaires have lost massive wealth due to the property market downturn and turmoil in the world's second-largest economy. In response, Beijing has rolled out yet another stimulus package, this time on Tuesday, as the Communist Party of China seeks to appear more proactive in supporting the economy amid a decades-long, investment-driven growth model that has hit stumbling blocks over the last several years.

The multi-year economic downturn has roiled the billionaire class in China, with many losing their billionaire status and being downgraded to centi-millionaire. 

Financial Times cites new data from research group Hurun, which shows the number of dollar billionaires plunged by over one-third in the last three years. The destruction of the billionaire class has been met with a barrage of stimulus measures to address underlying structural problems (debt, fertility crisis, deflation, property market woes, ect...), crushing the economy into a slow growth regime.

Hurun data shows that at the 2021 peak, there were 1,185 dollar billionaires in China. By the second half of 2024, that number plunged to 753, or about a 36% plunge, surpassing a 10% drop in the renminbi's value against the dollar over the same period. This year alone, the number of dollar billionaires in China tumbled 16%, when the renminbi only depreciated by 2.5% against the dollar. 

Source: Financial Times

China's decades-long investment-led growth boom in the property market minted billionaires upon billionaires. However, the downturn has wiped out many entrepreneurs with huge fortunes tied to property developer firms. 

Rupert Hoogewerf, chair of the Hurun Report, commented on the billionaire list, indicating it "has shrunk for an unprecedented third year running, as China's economy and stock markets had a difficult year."  

Topping the list is ByteDance founder Zhang Yiming. He surged to the top, beating out "bottled water king" Zhong Shanshan, with a net worth of $49.3 billion. 

Source: Financial Times

The Hurun report said that newly minted billionaires represent a "new generation of entrepreneurs in China that is much more international than their predecessors." 

As we explained early Tuesday following the announcement of yet another Chinese stimulus package, the 10 trillion yuan package may be insufficient to kickstart the economy ... and explained in "Why China's Rally Won't Have Legs" ... is that China's peak credit impulse - the all-important reflationary variable that propagates across the global economy - has dwindled, and so has the boost to growth.

In other words, to achieve the same stimulus level as a % of GDP, China would need to inject tens of trillions more. And since it can't do that, at least not without its middle class kicking and screaming (literally), China's house price will continue to slide, having recently tumbled by a record YoY amount...

What does this mean for the Chinese billionaires tied to the housing market? Well, the pain train will continue until Beijing unleashes a real stimulus bazooka.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/31/2024 - 02:45

Regional Conflict Vs World War III?

Zero Hedge -

Regional Conflict Vs World War III?

Authored by Daniel Oliver via American Greatness,

In a recent National Review, John O’Sullivan makes a compelling case for aiding Ukraine but not a convincing one. There are several problems, and they are worth rehashing one more time before the election.

If Trump wins, we know what happens.

If Harris wins, we really have no idea what will happen.

She is likely to bungle along as our current mentally challenged president has for the last two years: sandwiched between her anti-Semitic supporters and a lot of traditional Jewish Democrat supporters who - for some reason, no one (not even Norman Podhorets in the 352 pages of his 2010 book, Why Are Jews Liberals) has quite been able to explain - still vote Democrat.

O’Sullivan’s chief argument is the Hitler comparison: before World War II began, no one really believed that Hitler would sweep across Europe. But he did. And so, the thinking goes, will Putin. Maybe. But maybe not.

O’Sullivan writes:

“At their last summit meeting in Istanbul in November 1999, President Bill Clinton was surprised to be asked by Russian president Boris Yeltsin: Why don’t we agree that Russia can have Europe while the U.S. gets the rest of the world? His exact words were, ‘I ask you one thing. Just give Europe to Russia. The U.S. is not in Europe. Europe should be the business of Europeans. Russia is half European and half Asian.’”

“Andrei Illarionov, who was Putin’s economic adviser for several years (and a very successful one), has on several occasions testified that the Russian president has a well-worked-out long-term strategy to divide continental Europe from America and the U.K., to reach a Treaty of Rapallo–like agreement with Germany and France, and subsequently to wage a long campaign of subversion to weaken the Anglosphere powers.”

O’Sullivan also notes the amount of Russian spending on its military:

“The most conservative estimate of Russian spending is 6.5 percent of GDP. Other estimates go as high as 14 percent—though [O’Sullivan concedes] recent events suggest that President Putin is not getting a good bang for his buck.”

Those are not uninteresting points, but as O’Sullivan also concedes, Putin’s military seems to be second-rate, at best.

“If Russia is struggling to defeat Ukraine and even to defend its territory from Ukrainian advances, then it’s very clear that Russia could never win a conventional war against NATO.”

Yes, but: could it win a conventional war against Europe without the U.S.’s NATO contribution?

What should the U.S. do? And whatever the U.S. does, should it do it for Europe or only, or at least primarily, for the U.S.?

If it is so obvious that Putin really intends to gobble up much of Europe, why don’t the Europeans gird their loins, fasten on their breastplates, and get ready for war?

At a meeting of sophisticated policy types in Europe a few weeks ago, one European “reminded” the gathering that in 2008, the GDP of the U.S. and Europe were about equal. Today, the U.S. GDP is 75 percent larger. Not only that, Europeans are enacting laws designed to restrict U.S. companies from doing in Europe the things that have made the U.S. GDP so much larger than the EU’s GDP. The Wall Street Journal ran a piece making the same points on October 15.

So what? So the Europeans claim they don’t have the economic muscle to fight Putin alone and therefore need U.S. assistance. What’s wrong with that picture?

But there’s more. In the Summer 2024 issue of The Claremont Review, Christopher Caldwell notes that France plans to reduce its manpower in Central and West Africa (where it has been booted out of one country after another) to 600 troops and asks, “So how does it propose to join the Ukrainians in a major European ground war against Russia, which has several hundred thousand troops who have withstood an American proxy war for the better part of three years?”

And, writes Caldwell, “If you exclude [Britain’s] nuclear deterrent, its military spending has fallen to 1.8 percent; Britain is now spending less to defend itself than to pay the interest on its vast debt. In an interview with the Financial Times in early July, a former director of the British Ministry of Defence’s Office of Net Assessment judged the U.K. military unprepared for ‘conflict of any scale.’”

And “the Baltic states—Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia—have fewer than 50,000 soldiers and not a single main battle tank.”

So Europe’s economy is in shambles and European countries don’t really have functioning armies. They could have better economies (if they tried the free market), which would enable them to have better armies. And the smart money is betting on that happening when pigs learn to fly.

Pending which, is the U.S. supposed to bail the Europeans out again?

In 1951, Eisenhower said, “If in ten years, all American troops stationed in Europe for national defense purposes have not been returned to the United States, then this whole project will have failed.” Did he sense that the Europeans wouldn’t bother to provide for their own defense?

A faux argument that has been trotted out by the Biden administration and other supporters of U.S. aid to Ukraine untutored in economics is that by spending gazillions of dollars on military hardware that we would then give to the Ukrainians, we are really helping America by paying American workers. But where does that money come from? Either from taxes on productive workers (when you tax an activity, you get less of it) or from loans to be paid off by our productive children and grandchildren. If paying some Americans to build bombs for Ukraine is such a good idea for America, why don’t we pay all American workers to build bombs for Ukraine?

One contribution the U.S. could make is to turn on its oil spigots—turned off by the climate crazy—and mentally challenged—Joe Biden, whose policy is surely supported by Kamala Harris. That would lower the world price of energy and drastically decrease Russia’s revenue—and wouldn’t cost the U.S. a cent.

Over the last decade, oil and gas have provided the largest single source of revenue for the Russian government, accounting for up to 50 percent of Russia’s budget.

In October 2024, Alexandra Prokopenko, an economist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, estimated that “at current exchange rates, a $20 fall in oil prices would lead to a 1.8 trillion ruble ($20 billion) fall in [Russia’s] revenues . . . equivalent to about 1 percent of Russia’s GDP.”

Flooding the market with oil would also create financial hardship and perhaps calamity for Iran too (yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus).

Trump would do that. Harris would not. (Vote early and often.)

Meanwhile, back on the global stage, the U.S. must turn its attention to the growing threat from China, a far more serious threat than Russia—a point O’Sullivan seems to disagree with. He writes: “It is inevitable that an America that is now, if anything, too aware of China’s challenge (having ignored it for too long) will move money and troops from Europe to counter that challenge.” Well, yes. Precisely.

O’Sullivan’s comparison of Putin to Hitler may be correct, but he underestimates the threat that China poses—and also, probably underestimates the benefit to Europe that containing China provides.

The U.S. can’t do everything, and the sooner the Europeans grow up and recognize that and then act on that recognition, the better off they—and we—will be.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/31/2024 - 02:00

The Politics Of Fear: Laying The Groundwork For Fascism, American-Style

Zero Hedge -

The Politics Of Fear: Laying The Groundwork For Fascism, American-Style

Authored by John & Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

No one can terrorize a whole nation, unless we are all his accomplices.”

- Edward R. Murrow, broadcast journalist

America is in the midst of an epidemic of historic proportions.

The contagion being spread like wildfire is turning communities into battlegrounds and setting Americans one against the other.

Normally mild-mannered individuals caught up in the throes of this disease have been transformed into belligerent zealots, while others inclined to pacifism have taken to stockpiling weapons and practicing defensive drills.

This plague on our nation—one that has been spreading like wildfire—is a potent mix of fear coupled with unhealthy doses of paranoia and intolerance, tragic hallmarks of the post-9/11 America in which we live.

Everywhere you turn, those on both the left- and right-wing are fomenting distrust and division. You can’t escape it.

We’re being fed a constant diet of fear: fear of terrorists, fear of illegal immigrants, fear of people who are too religious, fear of people who are not religious enough, fear of extremists, fear of conformists, fear of the government, fear of those who fear the government, fear of those on the Right, fear of those on the Left... The list goes on and on.

The strategy is simple yet effective: the best way to control a populace is through fear and discord.

Fear makes people stupid.

Confound them, distract them with mindless news chatter and entertainment, pit them against one another by turning minor disagreements into major skirmishes, and tie them up in knots over matters lacking in national significance.

Most importantly, divide the people into factions, persuade them to see each other as the enemy and keep them screaming at each other so that they drown out all other sounds. In this way, they will never reach consensus about anything and will be too distracted to notice the police state closing in on them until the final crushing curtain falls.

This is how free people enslave themselves and allow tyrants to prevail. 

This Machiavellian scheme has so ensnared the nation that few Americans even realize they are being manipulated into adopting an “us” against “them” mindset. Instead, fueled with fear and loathing for phantom opponents, they agree to pour millions of dollars and resources into political elections, militarized police, spy technology and endless wars, hoping for a guarantee of safety that never comes.

All the while, those in power—bought and paid for by lobbyists and corporations—move their costly agendas forward, and “we the suckers” get saddled with the tax bills and subjected to pat downs, police raids and round-the-clock surveillance.

Turn on the TV or flip open the newspaper on any given day, and you will find yourself accosted by reports of government corruption, corporate malfeasance, militarized police and marauding SWAT teams.

America has already entered a new phase, one in which children are arrested in schools, military veterans are forcibly detained by government agents because of their so-called “anti-government” views, and law-abiding Americans are having their movements tracked, their financial transactions documented, and their communications monitored.

These threats are not to be underestimated.

Yet even more dangerous than these violations of our basic rights is the language in which they are couched: the language of fear. It is a language spoken effectively by politicians on both sides of the aisle, shouted by media pundits from their cable TV pulpits, marketed by corporations, and codified into bureaucratic laws that do little to make our lives safer or more secure.

This language of fear has given rise to a politics of fear whose only aim is to distract and divide us. In this way, we have been discouraged from thinking analytically and believing that we have any part to play in solving the problems before us. Instead, we have been conditioned to point the finger at the other Person or vote for this Politician or support this Group, because they are the ones who will fix it. Except that they can’t and won’t fix the problems plaguing our communities.

Nevertheless, fear remains the method most often used by politicians to increase the power of government.

The government’s overblown, extended wars on terrorism, drugs, violence, disease, illegal immigration, and so-called domestic extremism have been convenient ruses used to terrorize the populace into relinquishing more of their freedoms in exchange for elusive promises of security.

An atmosphere of fear permeates modern America. However, with crime at an all-time low, is such fear rational?

Statistics show that you are 17,600 times more likely to die from heart disease than from a terrorist attack. You are 11,000 times more likely to die from an airplane accident than from a terrorist plot involving an airplane. You are 1,048 times more likely to die from a car accident than a terrorist attack. You are 404 times more likely to die in a fall than from a terrorist attack. You are 12 times more likely to die from accidental suffocating in bed than from a terrorist attack. And you are 9 more times likely to choke to death in your own vomit than die in a terrorist attack.

Indeed, those living in the American police state are 8 times more likely to be killed by a police officer than by a terrorist. Thus, the government’s endless jabbering about terrorism amounts to little more than propaganda—the propaganda of fear—a tactic used to terrorize, cower and control the population.

In turn, the government’s stranglehold on power and extreme paranoia about the citizenry as potential threats has resulted in a populace that is increasingly viewed as the government’s enemies.

Why else would the government feel the need to monitor our communications, track our movements, criminalize our every action, treat us like suspects, and strip us of any means of defense while equipping its own personnel with an amazing arsenal of weapons?

So far, these tactics—terrorizing the citizenry over the government’s paranoia and overblown fears while treating them like criminals—are working to transform the way “we the people” view ourselves and our role in this nation.

Indeed, fear and paranoia have become hallmarks of the modern American experience, impacting how we as a nation view the world around us, how we as citizens view each other, and most of all how our government views us.

The American people have been reduced to what commentator Dan Sanchez refers to as “herd-minded hundreds of millions [who] will stampede to the State for security, bleating to please, please be shorn of their remaining liberties.”

Sanchez continues:

I am not terrified of the terrorists; i.e., I am not, myself, terrorized. Rather, I am terrified of the terrorized; terrified of the bovine masses who are so easily manipulated by terrorists, governments, and the terror-amplifying media into allowing our country to slip toward totalitarianism and total war…

I do not irrationally and disproportionately fear Muslim bomb-wielding jihadists or white, gun-toting nutcases. But I rationally and proportionately fear those who do, and the regimes such terror empowers. History demonstrates that governments are capable of mass murder and enslavement far beyond what rogue militants can muster. Industrial-scale terrorists are the ones who wear ties, chevrons, and badges. But such terrorists are a powerless few without the supine acquiescence of the terrorized many. There is nothing to fear but the fearful themselves…

Stop swallowing the overblown scaremongering of the government and its corporate media cronies. Stop letting them use hysteria over small menaces to drive you into the arms of tyranny, which is the greatest menace of all.

As history makes clear, fear and government paranoia lead to fascist, totalitarian regimes.

It’s a simple enough formula. National crises, reported terrorist attacks, and sporadic shootings leave us in a constant state of fear. Fear prevents us from thinking. The emotional panic that accompanies fear actually shuts down the prefrontal cortex or the rational thinking part of our brains. In other words, when we are consumed by fear, we stop thinking.

A populace that stops thinking for themselves is a populace that is easily led, easily manipulated and easily controlled.

The following, derived by from John T. Flynn’s 1944 treatise on fascism As We Go Marching are a few of the necessary ingredients for a fascist state:

  • The government is managed by a powerful leader (even if he or she assumes office by way of the electoral process). This is the fascistic leadership principle (or father figure).

  • The government assumes it is not restrained in its power. This is authoritarianism, which eventually evolves into totalitarianism.

  • The government ostensibly operates under a capitalist system while being undergirded by an immense bureaucracy.

  • The government through its politicians emits powerful and continuing expressions of nationalism.

  • The government has an obsession with national security while constantly invoking terrifying internal and external enemies.

  • The government establishes a domestic and invasive surveillance system and develops a paramilitary force that is not answerable to the citizenry.

  • The government and its various agencies (federal, state, and local) develop an obsession with crime and punishment. This is overcriminalization.

  • The government becomes increasingly centralized while aligning closely with corporate powers to control all aspects of the country’s social, economic, military, and governmental structures.

  • The government uses militarism as a center point of its economic and taxing structure.

  • The government is increasingly imperialistic in order to maintain the military-industrial corporate forces.

The parallels to modern America are impossible to ignore.

“Every industry is regulated. Every profession is classified and organized. Every good or service is taxed. Endless debt accumulation is preserved. Immense doesn’t begin to describe the bureaucracy. Military preparedness never stops, and war with some evil foreign foe, remains a daily prospect,” writes economist Jeffrey Tucker.

It’s incorrect to call fascism either right wing or left wing. It is both and neither… fascism does not seek to overthrow institutions like commercial establishments, family, religious centers, and civic traditions. It seeks to control them… it preserves most of what people hold dear but promises to improve economic, social, and cultural life through unifying their operations under government control.”

For the final hammer of fascism to fall, it will require the most crucial ingredient: the majority of the people will have to agree that it’s not only expedient but necessary. In times of “crisis,” expediency is upheld as the central principle—that is, in order to keep us safe and secure, the government must militarize the police, strip us of basic constitutional rights and criminalize virtually every form of behavior.

We are at a critical crossroads in American history.

As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, fear has been a critical tool in past fascistic regimes, and it has become the driving force behind the American police state.

All of which begs the question what we will give up in order to perpetuate the illusions of safety and security.

As we once again find ourselves faced with the prospect of voting for the lesser of two evils, “we the people” have a decision to make: do we simply participate in the collapse of the American republic as it degenerates toward a totalitarian regime, or do we take a stand and reject the pathetic excuse for government that is being fobbed off on us?

There is no easy answer, but one thing is true: the lesser of two evils is still evil.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/30/2024 - 23:50

Did Boston Dynamics Get Jealous After Spotlight On Tesla's Optimus Robot?

Zero Hedge -

Did Boston Dynamics Get Jealous After Spotlight On Tesla's Optimus Robot?

Less than a day after Tesla CEO Elon Musk made bold claims at the Future Investment Initiative Conference in Saudi Arabia, touting big AI growth in the coming years, which is only suggestive of powerful tailwinds for his Optimus robot, Boston Dynamics—once the leader in viral humanoid robot videos—published a clip on YouTube on Wednesday morning showcasing its robot performing typical warehouse tasks usually carried out by workers in Amazon distribution centers.

Maybe a bit of jealousy is unfolding between Boston Dynamics and Musk's Optimus robot, which has received a lot of attention in October - from the "We, Robot" event on October 10 to Musk's comment at the event in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday:

"I think by 2040, probably there are more humanoid robots than there are people. Every country will have an AI or multiple AIs, and there will be a lot of robots, way more robots than people."

Back to the We, Robot event, where Musk said Optimus will cost less than $30,000 and forecasted that the humanoid robot will be the company's most popular product in the years ahead... 

Maybe all this attention on Optimus provoked Boston Dynamics to release a video of its bipedal humanoid robot, Atlas.  

Here's more from Boston Dynamics:

Atlas is autonomously moving engine covers between supplier containers and a mobile sequencing dolly. The robot receives as input a list of bin locations to move parts between.

Atlas uses a machine learning (ML) vision model to detect and localize the environment fixtures and individual bins [0:36]. The robot uses a specialized grasping policy and continuously estimates the state of manipulated objects to achieve the task.

There are no prescribed or teleoperated movements; all motions are generated autonomously online. The robot is able to detect and react to changes in the environment (e.g., moving fixtures) and action failures (e.g., failure to insert the cover, tripping, environment collisions [1:24]) using a combination of vision, force, and proprioceptive sensors.

Suppose robots and AI are forecasted to lead to millions of job losses in the years ahead. Then why did Democrats facilitate the greatest migrant invasion this nation has ever seen with low-skilled, unvetted illegal aliens when many of those jobs are likely to be automated away? Ah, yes, it's all about the votes.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/30/2024 - 23:25

The Spinal Tap Election: Everything Is Turned Up To 11

Zero Hedge -

The Spinal Tap Election: Everything Is Turned Up To 11

Authored by Charles Lipson via RealClearPolitics,

To hear the candidates and their surrogates tell it, we live in Weimar Germany 1932. There are only fascists fighting communists, with nobody in the middle. The candidates have eagerly pinned those noxious labels on their opponents.

MSNBC, which competes with ABC and CBS for dreadful news judgment, drove home that point with its coverage of Trump’s closing rally at Madison Square Garden. Amid clips of the Trump event, they spliced clips of Nazi rallies. Subtlety be damned.

A better analogy than Weimar is “Spinal Tap,” the mockumentary about a hapless heavy metal band. In one scene, the band’s guitarist, Nigel Tufnel, explains why his amplifiers are louder than everyone else’s. Their amplifier dials only go up to 10. His go up to 11.

Tufnel: It’s one louder, isn’t it? … What we do is if we need that extra ... push over the cliff ... you know what we do?

Interviewer Marty DeBergi: Put it up to eleven.

Tufnel:  Eleven. Exactly. One louder.

That is American politics today. One louder. But with everyone louder – and angrier – no one can hear each other.

With the amps at 11 and the country ideologically polarized, we are pushing America toward the cliff. Both parties think that’s the other’s fault.

These intense passions won’t end when the ballots are counted, especially if the results are close. In 2020, Trump impugned the results and the winner’s legitimacy. In 2016, after Hillary Clinton lost, she repeatedly denounced Trump as an illegitimate president. That rhetoric mobilizes the most extreme followers. It’s kindling wood for violence, exactly what a constitutional democracy should avoid with the peaceful transfer of power.

This turbulence has two sources. One is short-term, a cynical tactic to increase partisan turnout. Get them to the polls by playing on their fears. The other is long-term. Both sides are genuinely scared about what the other side will do if they win. Those two sources, long-term and short-term, reinforce each other.

They push us toward the cliff. Before plunging over, it’s time for sensible people to take a deep breath and assess the real differences, not the hype, and consider how to cope with the dangers.

The most fundamental point is this: America’s best protection against extreme dangers are robust constitutional institutions, combined with impartial law enforcement.

What are these vital institutional protections?

  • Separation of powers
  • Respect for the rule of law
  • Impartial enforcement of our laws
  • Protection for the minority party’s rights, ensured by the Senate filibuster
  • Limits on presidential fiat, not governance by constant Executive Orders
  • Requirements that major rules proposed by administrative agencies receive clear approval from elected representatives before they can be implemented
  • Restraint and effective oversight on the enormous, secretive power of the FBI, Department of Justice, and intelligence agencies, whose actions must be kept within constitutional bounds and never used for domestic political gain or political blackmail

These institutional protections are the load-bearing walls of constitutional democracy. All of them have been under enormous strain, mostly by partisans who care far more about achieving their preferred outcomes than about preserving constitutional methods for achieving them. Indeed, they would readily change those methods, such as packing the Supreme Court, to achieve their goals.

The dangers have grown because the policy differences between the two parties today are deep and fundamental. These are not the differences between Dwight Eisenhower and Adlai Stevenson, or between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon. They are deeper, angrier, and laden with almost-religious fervor. Apostates are excommunicated.

These opposing views are amplified in today’s media landscape, which is characterized by separate silos for separate audiences. People tune in to see their views confirmed and others’ denigrated.

Amid these changes, the base constituencies of both parties have moved away from the center, away from the possibilities of compromise.

These cleavages are prominent in issues freighted with social and cultural meaning. That’s certainly true for disputes surrounding abortion and transgender rights. Both issues have practical consequences, but the disputes go further. They are fights over cultural symbols that matter to many people who have no direct, personal stake in reproductive rights or gender changes.

For many women, abortion is a hard-won right and they believe that they alone should decide whether to keep their pregnancy or terminate it. Achieving that right (codified in the 1973 Roe v .Wade decision) was the most important feminist victory since the advent of voting rights for women. Their political opponents say pregnant women should not have unfettered discretion to deal with pregnancy since it involves another, innocent life. The debate over women’s rights, human autonomy, and the protection of innocents is suffused with both practical consequences and symbolic weight.

The same is true for transgender rights. The right of adults to choose their gender is now widely accepted, a major change from 20 or 30 years ago. The battles now are whether children should be subject to irreversible changes, who should make those decisions, whether transgender women (born men) should compete against biological women and girls in sports, whether biological and transgender girls should use the same bathrooms and locker rooms, and whether taxpayers should pay for gender-changing operations on prison inmates and illegal aliens. The numbers involved in these issues are relatively small, but their symbolic weight is large. Opposing sides face each other across a cultural chasm, drenched with contempt for the opposition.

These differences are playing out against a disorienting background condition, which is often ignored when we discuss politics and culture. The basic structure of modern economies is changing rapidly. The last such disorienting economic change was the Great Depression and, before that, the Second Industrial Revolution in the 1890s (the advent of big steel, oil, chemicals, and large corporations to manage them). Both the 1890s and 1930s produced long-lasting shifts in voters’ political alignments.

We are seeing another great realignment now, driven (on the economic side) by rapid innovation in computer technology, artificial intelligence, and robotics. When those are combined with low-cost transportation, virtually free communication, and trade rules that encourage globalization, the result is social dislocation and disorientation. There is a palpable threat to employment in American manufacturing and, increasingly, in service industries.

Both political parties have responded by supporting trade protection, with Trump taking the lead. Doing so has helped him forge a populist Republican Party, centered on the working-class.

Amid these vast changes and bitter ideological differences, it is hardly surprising to see our political discourse becoming more virulent, depicting the opposition as “enemies,” as Trump has done for some elected representatives (and not just violent extremists).

The only way to contain those differences peacefully is to channel them through established democratic institutions, using well-established procedures. That’s the only hope the losing side will accept the results as legitimate.

To propose major changes to those institutions risks further undermining their already-wobbly legitimacy. To impose those changes for immediate political victories, to impose them with support from only one party, is worse than foolhardy. It’s dangerous. It would keep the amplifiers pinned on 11 while we scream at each other across the deafening noise.

Charles Lipson is the Peter B. Ritzma Professor of Political Science Emeritus at the University of Chicago. His latest book is Free Speech 101: A Practical Guide for Students. He can be reached at charles.lipson@gmail.com.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/30/2024 - 23:00

Trick-Or-Treat Around The World

Zero Hedge -

Trick-Or-Treat Around The World

Trick-or-treating has been associated with Halloween celebrations in the U.S. and Canada since the early 1900s, but, as Statista's Katharina Buchholz shows below, traditions of children going door to door in a quest for treats exist in many parts of the world, with one European custom being widely recognized as the precursor of the North American tradition.

 Trick-or-Treat Around the World | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

As far back as the Middle Ages, people in the British Isles dressed up for holidays and went from door to door performing scenes in order to receive a thank-you in the form of food and drink.

The tradition is preserved today in Scotland and Ireland under the name guising and features dressed-up children rather than theater displays.

The origin of Halloween, celebrated on October 31, also goes back to Celtic traditions, more specifically the Samhain festival, which marked the beginning of winter and a time when fairies and spirits needed to be appeased. 

Like many Christian holidays, All Saints' Day (November 1) and its eve, All Hallows' Day, coincide with the pagan festival and trick-or-treating is done in Portugal on the first day of November.

All Saints' Day also has a big significance in Mexico (celebrated as Day of the Dead there) but U.S. Halloween traditions have also been adopted, most heavily in the Northern and Central parts of the country, where the custom is named calaverita (litte skull) after the sugar skulls which are gifted for the festival.

But scary dress and trick-or-treating antics are not tied to a single date: Scandinavian children engage in them around Easter, while those in Northern Germany and Southern Denmark pick New Year's Eve. In Southern Germany, Austria Switzerland, the Netherlands and Flanders in Belgium, treats are given out not for threats, but for songs, which children perform on November 11 (St. Martin's Day). Caroling for sweets is also performed during Ramadan in Central Asia. This is where trick-or-treating blends into Christmas caroling, which is sometimes also rewarded with food offerings, for example in Eastern Europe.

The practice is associated most closely with England and the United States, but involves adults as well as children and more commonly the collection of money, for example for charity.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/30/2024 - 22:35

US Coast Guard To Expand Presence, Cooperation In Indo-Pacific Amid China Concerns

Zero Hedge -

US Coast Guard To Expand Presence, Cooperation In Indo-Pacific Amid China Concerns

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Coast Guard said that it intends to send specialized forces, training teams, and other capacity-building assets to help Indo-Pacific allies bolster their ability to safeguard exclusive economic zones and protect their natural resources from exploitation, according to the Coast Guard 2024 operational posture report released on Oct. 25.

Crew members look out from a U.S. Coast Guard cutter before the start of a rescue exercise, on Dec. 6, 2000. Peter Parks/AFP via Getty Images

The report states that the region remains “a top regional priority” for the United States, citing its geostrategic importance, vital role in global trade, and the need to ensure “a free, open, and rules-based maritime order.”

“We are expanding our presence and cooperation in Southeast and South Asia, with a focus on advising, training, deployment, and capacity building,” the Coast Guard stated while also pledging to continue to support its allies’ efforts in combating “predatorial fishing practices.”

The report comes amid growing concerns over China’s military assertiveness in the region but did not mention the Chinese communist regime by name. It stated that the United States aims to boost the capacity of regional coast guards to support them in countering “malign influence,” enforcing their laws and addressing their priority interests such as climate change.

According to the report, the Coast Guard will deploy its National Security cutters—the centerpiece of its fleet—to the Western Pacific and move the 270-foot Harriet Lane cutter to the Indo-Pacific. The Coast Guard said it will also maintain operations of fast response cutters and buoy tenders in Oceania.

During an Oct. 18 press conference, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin warned that China’s “increasingly coercive” behavior in the Indo-Pacific could have implications for the whole world and that cooperation with Indo-Pacific allies has become vital.

“We’re also troubled by the growing alignment between Russia and the People’s Republic of China [PRC], including the PRC’s support for [Russian President Vladimir Putin’s] indefensible war of choice against Ukraine, and that makes our close cooperation with our Indo-Pacific friends more vital than ever,” he stated.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been criticized for its increasingly aggressive actions against its neighboring countries, particularly Taiwan, the Philippines, and Japan.

Last month, China conducted joint military drills with Russian naval and air forces in the Sea of Japan and the Sea of Okhotsk, north of Japan’s Hokkaido Island, aiming to boost their strategic military cooperation and enhance “the ability to jointly respond to security threats.”

Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense has reported a surge in Chinese military activity around the island in recent months. On Oct. 27, the ministry said it had detected 22 Chinese military aircraft and seven vessels near the island’s vicinity, with 17 of the aircraft spotted crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait.

On Oct. 10, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. criticized Chinese coast guards for blasting horns, firing water cannons, and ramming Philippine maritime boats during three separate clashes near the disputed Sabina Shoal, also known as Xianbin in Beijing and Escoda in Manila.

The United States announced last week $8 million in new funding to modernize the Philippines Coast Guard (PCG), following the U.S.-Philippines maritime dialogue held in Manila on Oct. 24.

The funding will be used to support the PCG’s infrastructure enhancement, training program development, and resource acquisition and management planning, according to an Oct.28 statement by the U.S. Embassy in Manila.

During the meeting, delegates from the two countries reviewed ongoing cooperative efforts and discussed ways to address maritime concerns in the disputed South China Sea.

Both sides underscored the importance of upholding the 2016 arbitral award on the South China Sea, which ruled in favor of the Philippines in its legal action against China and declared that Beijing’s sovereignty claims had no legal basis. The CCP has refused to accept or recognize the ruling.

Beijing has asserted territorial claims over nearly the entire South China Sea, including reefs and islands that overlap with the exclusive economic zones of Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Taiwan, and the Philippines.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/30/2024 - 22:10

Nosy NYTimes Journos Uncover Elon Musk's Secret Luxury Compound In Austin  

Zero Hedge -

Nosy NYTimes Journos Uncover Elon Musk's Secret Luxury Compound In Austin  

The world's richest man and Donald Trump's most prominent supporter has reportedly acquired two mansions in Austin, Texas, within walking distance of each other, paying upwards of $35 million for the villas to support his growing family (of which there are at least 11).  

Nosy New York Times journalists, citing sources and public records ... 

... were the first to report that Musk acquired two mansions in Austin, all within walking distance of each, for $35 million. They said one of the mansions was a 14,400-square-foot mansion resembling a Tuscan home. The other home was directly behind it. 

Sources told the NYTimes there was a third mansion about a 10-minute walk away—this is the home Musk usually stays at while in Austin. 

NYT journos wrote:

Three mansions, three mothers, 11 children and one secretive, multibillionaire father who obsesses about declining birthrates when he isn't overseeing one of his six companies: It is an unconventional family situation, and one that Mr. Musk seems to want to make even bigger. 

Musk moved to Austin after dumping his California mansions and shifted his companies, SpaceX, Tesla, and the Boring Company, to Texas. This decision was primarily because Governor Gavin Newsom and far-left Democrats ruined California with backfiring progressive policies that sparked a tidal wave of violent crime. Plus, business conditions in the state are atrocious compared with Texas. 

In Musk's mind, imploding global fertility rates are the biggest crisis of our lifetime: "A collapsing birth rate is the biggest danger civilization faces, by far." 

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/30/2024 - 21:45

Election Lawsuits Heat Up

Zero Hedge -

Election Lawsuits Heat Up

Authored by The Epoch Times Staff,

As election day approaches, courts have been making a series of decisions that bear on how Americans’ votes get counted in the 2024 election cycle.

Virginia, a critical swing state, sought the Supreme Court’s intervention yesterday - just eight days before Election Day - after two lower courts blocked its effort to purge non-citizens from its voter rolls. The Justice Department (DOJ) had sued the commonwealth and won an injunction over its purported violation of the National Voter Registration Act’s prohibition on systematic attempts to clean up voter rolls 90 days before an election. [ZH: The Supreme Court ruled in favor of the commonwealth, allowing the removal of non-citizens).

The U.S. Supreme Court in Washington on July 30, 2024. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

DOJ filed a similar lawsuit in Alabama, which resulted in a separate injunction by a federal judge. The same law was part of the Republican National Committee’s (RNC) challenge to Michigan’s alleged failure to maintain its voter roles, but a federal judge dismissed the party’s lawsuit on Oct. 22.

Mail-in ballots have been a controversial issue, especially after their widespread use during the 2020 presidential election, with questions surrounding their reliability. Two ballot boxes were reportedly burned on Oct. 28 in Washington and Oregon. 

Two rulings on mail-in ballots have come from the Nevada Supreme Court and the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit in the weeks leading up to the election. The first held on Oct. 28 that late-arriving ballots could be counted up to three days after the election, while the other held on Oct. 25 that the Constitution required ballots be counted on election day.

The RNC, which sought stricter limits on counting in Mississippi and Nevada, recently told The Epoch Times it was involved with more than 130 lawsuits across 26 states this election cycle. 

The party also asked the U.S. Supreme Court to halt a ruling by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, which voted 5-4 to allow provisional ballots from individuals who improperly cast mail-in ballots.

Elon Musk, who endorsed former President Donald Trump, came under fire in Philadelphia, where the city’s district attorney sued to halt what he described as an “illegal lottery” promoted by the billionaire. Musk’s America PAC is giving away $1 million every day to a person who has signed a petition supporting the Constitution.

Other lawsuits have been filed over policies surrounding results certification, overseas voters, voting by convicted felons, mail-in ballots, and voter rolls. Georgia, another potential swing state, attempted to install seven new rules before the election, but each was struck down by a superior court judge earlier this month.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/30/2024 - 21:20

Zelensky Fumes Over White House Leak Of Secret Missile Plan To NY Times

Zero Hedge -

Zelensky Fumes Over White House Leak Of Secret Missile Plan To NY Times

Despite all the recent billions in US taxpayer monies recently sunk into Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky is fuming after key controversial aspects to his 'victory plan' pitched to Biden administration officials were leaked to The New York Times.

The following is the leaked content made public for the first time in the Tuesday NY Times piece:

In one part not made public, Mr. Zelensky proposed a “nonnuclear deterrence package” in which Ukraine would get Tomahawk missiles, a totally unfeasible request, a senior U.S. official said. A Tomahawk has a range of 1,500 miles, more than seven times the range of the long-range missile systems called ATACMS that Ukraine got this year. And the United States sent only a limited number of those, senior U.S. officials said.

On the whole, the NYT report comes off scathing and negative toward Zelensky, calling his recent tour to lobby Washington and the West in favor of his victory plan a failure. But then it comments that the plan was likely set up to fail.

Via AFP

The Times piece strongly suggests the whole thing is a political charade to begin with, and that Zelensky set up the 'victory plan' for failure in order to lay ultimate blame on the West for 'lack of support' when it inevitably rejects it:

But the real audience for the plan might be at home, some military analysts and diplomats say. Mr. Zelensky can use his hard sell — including a recent address to Parliament — to show Ukrainians that he has done all he can, prepare them for the possibility that Ukraine might have to make a deal and give Ukrainians a convenient scapegoat: the West.

In the wake of this leak to the Times by Biden admin officials, Zelensky has begun lashing out directly at the White House in a rare moment.

"And this was confidential information between Ukraine and the White House. How should we understand these messages? So, it means between partners there’s nothing confidential?” Zelensky said in a fresh media interview published Wednesday.

According to Politico's commentary:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed Wednesday that he asked the United States for Tomahawk long-range missiles to help defeat Russia — and slammed the White House for leaking secrets to the American media.

...Zelenskyy, though, was displeased with information about the Tomahawk request being divulged to The New York Times for a story in which an anonymous senior U.S. official described the Ukrainian request as totally unfeasible.

Still, one Ukrainian official told the same publication, "We know the plan is realistic. U.S. own military studied it and said it is realistic." So it seems the White House is indeed throwing Zelensky under the bus, even as he tries to do the same to the White House.

What has become very clear to all is that Ukraine forces are in the throes of suffering decisive battlefield defeat in the east, and now the blame-game begins.

* * *

Below is some further commentary by Gray Zone journalist Aaron Maté [emphasis ZH]...

US officials recently leaked that Zelensky's "Victory Plan" includes a request for long-range US Tomahawk missiles, which they ruled out as too escalatory. Zelensky is understandably upset that this was disclosed. He's being thrown under the bus.

But it's worse than that. Before it invaded in Feb. 2022, Russia sought a US commitment to not place long-range missiles like the Tomahawk inside Ukraine. Biden initially said he was open to discussing that, but then backed off.

This likely factored into Russia's decision to impose its security demands by force. Rather than negotiate with Russia, Biden chose to encourage war -- and then leave Ukraine hanging anyway.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/30/2024 - 20:55

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