Fed Remains On Hold (As Expected) Amid 'Uncertain Implications' Of War With Iran

Tl;dr: Rates on hold as expected with a hawkish tilt to 'uncertainty' around the Iran war clouding the outlook. The Dot-Plot showed no real change (7 on hold, 12 at least 1 cut in 2026) but inflation expectations surged in the SEP.

*  *  *

A lot - and we mean a lot - has happened since the last FOMC meeting (Jan 28th).

Oil is up 54% since the last FOMC meeting, bitcoin has tumbled. Gold and stocks are also down notably while the dollar has strengthened...

Both growth and inflation data have outperformed since the last FOMC meeting (but as the chart shows, fears are rising over stagflation as the impact of higher energy prices - and tighter financial conditions - could weigh on growth)...

Rate-cut expectations for 2026 have collapsed since the last FOMC meeting (most notably since the war began) with less than one full cut now priced in...

The market is priced for absolutely nothing to happen today (from a rate change perspective - higher or lower), so all eyes will be on the number of dissents, the new set of SEP (dots) data, and any commentary on the economy and/or the impact of the war.

Expectations are for a continuation of a "hawkish hold" amid heightened uncertainty.

FOMC Statement

Rates remain on hold with one dissent

• *FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 3.5%-3.75% RANGE IN 11-1 VOTE

• *FED SAYS GOVERNOR STEPHEN MIRAN DISSENTS IN FAVOR OF RATE CUT

Fed statement comparison: exactly as expected.

• Very little changes, small downgrade to labor market ("some signs of stabilization" to "little changed in recent months"),

• ...and brief discussion or Iran war ("implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain")

MUFG’s George Goncalves says this is a “neutral” statement from the FOMC.

“The statement tweaks are an attempt at trying to avoid sending any signals while conveying they are on guard for any growth shocks and inflation spillover from the Middle East Conflict.”

Dots: Statement of Economic Projections 

• *FED MAINTAINS PROJECTIONS FOR ONE RATE CUT IN 2026, ONE IN 2027

The new dots show 7 Fed members preferring to hold for the rest of the year with 12 preferring at least 1 more cut...

In 2027, there is now only one member who sees a rate-hike...

So, rather interestingly, The Fed left the dots basically unchanged from December but spiked inflation expectations for 2027 for both headline and core to 2.7% (vs 2.4% and 2.5%)

As Bloomberg's Ira Jersey noted:

“Somewhat less obvious in the statement about Middle East led-uncertainty, but the higher inflation expectations in the SEP are certainly a sign the Fed is more concerned about current oil inflation, and less about next year. So a level shift is more or less built into their forecasts."

Now all eyes turn to Powell to see how 'hawkish' this hold is?

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 15:40

US Median Rent Hits 4-Year Low, 30th Straight Month of Decline

Authored by Mary Prenon via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Renters across the United States may be able to save a bit more on apartment leases this month, as rents nationwide hit a four-year low last month, marking the 30th consecutive month of declines.

A sign is posted in front of an apartment building with available rentals in San Francisco on June 9, 2023. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

In its February Rental Report issued on March 17, Realtor.com recorded that the national median rent was $1,667, with 15 major markets posting rents more than 10 percent below their pandemic-era peaks.

The median rent for studio, one-bedroom, and two-bedroom apartments fell last month to its lowest level since March 2022. Nationally, the median rent fell by $29, or 1.7 percent, from a year earlier. While rents remained 14.2 percent higher than pre-pandemic levels in February 2020, they were $90, or 5.1 percent, lower than their peak in the summer of 2022.

“The persistent softness we’re seeing is increasingly translating into real savings for renters who, for a long time, felt the market was out of reach,” Danielle Hale, Realtor.com chief economist, said in the report.

Hale noted that rents typically skew lower during the winter months but are expected to rise slightly as spring approaches.

“For some areas, this will likely mean new rental price highs, even as renters in the Sun Belt continue to see notably lower rents,” she said.

Lower rents in the South were attributed to a continued boom in multifamily construction. Atlanta, Georgia, has seen 42 consecutive months of year-over-year declines, followed by Phoenix, Arizona, and Las Vegas, Nevada, both have had 41 months of decreases.

The median rent for all apartment sizes in Atlanta last month was $1,543—a 2 percent year-over-year decline. Renters in Phoenix saw a median price of $1,247, a 4.4 percent year-over-year drop, and renters in Las Vegas experienced a median price of $1,423, a 1.8 percent decrease.

According to the report, the national median rent for two-bedroom apartments declined by nearly 2 percent year over year in February, to $1,844 per month. One-bedroom apartments had a median rent of $1,548, and studios $1,393.

Oklahoma City offered the country’s lowest median rent at just $983 for all apartment sizes. Median rent in Birmingham, Alabama, came in at $1,125 last month, and in Columbus, Ohio, at $1,190. Other metros with median rents under $1,500 include Austin, Memphis, Nashville, Raleigh, and Jacksonville.

Three California metros had some of the country’s highest rents in February, with the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara metro topping the list with a median rent of $3,331—nearly a 2 percent year-over-year increase, and the 28th consecutive month in rent growth. San Francisco’s median rent was $2,768, while the San Diego metro saw a median rent of $2, 626.

Conversely, rents increased in five metro areas in February, settling just 3 percent below their all-time highs. Virginia Beach experienced a 4.5 percent hike in the median price, to $1,620. Baltimore, Richmond, and San Jose also saw unusual spikes in median rents. While rents were relatively low in Kansas City, Missouri, at $1,387, the metro experienced a larger-than-usual rise.

“We are seeing two different stories across the country,” Realtor.com economist Jiayi Xu said in the report.

“As the spring season approaches, these markets are poised to resume an upward trajectory and push toward new all-time highs.”

A mid-February report by RentCafe predicted a mix of metro areas in the mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and South will be “hot spots” for the spring market.

Cincinnati ranked number one as the most sought-after city by renters, jumping 10 spots from 2025. The rise in its popularity was attributed to the city’s robust job market, revitalization of downtown neighborhoods, and riverfront development. Potential renters showing interest in the city were mainly from Columbus, Chicago, and New York City.

Atlanta, Minneapolis, Washington, DC, and Baltimore also made the top 5 list of popular rental cities. Even with its sky-high rents, San Jose earned seventh place on the list, due to its reputation as a tech-hub hotspot.

The only Northeast location to make the list was Philadelphia, drawing prospective renters mainly from New York City and Boston.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 15:25

Iran Says It Busted Up Over 100 'Pro-Monarchist Cells' Working With US, Israel

Iranian authorities have newly announced hundreds more arrests across the country, describing that anti-government "pro-monarchy cells" and "traitors" have been exposed and caught. 

Tehran officials have touted busting up more than 100 of these alleged cells in 26 of Iran's 31 provinces in a major overnight security operation, describing that these groups were aligned with US and Israeli interests.

Security forces from the Intelligence Ministry "have identified and arrested 111 monarchist cells across 26 provinces before they could take action on the last Wednesday of the year," the ministry stated according to Fars.

AFP/Getty Images

The ministry said that firearms, knives, and other weapons of various types were recovered. As for how many individuals were precisely rounded up and detained, this was undisclosed.

According to more details via Al Jazeera:

The ministry says four suspected spies linked to the United States were arrested in Hamedan city and West Azerbaijan province, both in the country’s west.

Authorities also arrested another 21 people accused of cooperating with the London-based broadcaster Iran International, which is outlawed in Iran.

Iran has long accused the London-based outlet Iran International of being a front for Mossad, and it also reportedly has links to Saudi Arabia - and is well known for actively promoting former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi as the next ruler of Iran.

As for Pahlavi, despite his name often appearing in Western media reports connected to the Iran crisis, the Shah's family has been in exile for nearly fifty years - and so is a name not widely known or supported among the bulk of over 90 million citizens of Iran.

However, Reza Pahlavi's profile has been rising - given also Western satellite and government programming has been beaming his name into the Islamic Republic, going back especially to the large deadly January economic protests.

As for domestic pressure on the Iranian government, the opposition remains fractured and small, with the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard telling a Senate Intelligence hearing on Wednesday "the Iranian regime appears to be intact, but largely degraded by the US military operation."

What we are likely going to continue to see at least in the near term, amid the US-Israeli bombing campaign, is summed up in an international relations concept which is so basic and foundational (in terms of being entirely predictable as 'blowback') that it even has its own Wikipedia page: the rally 'round the flag effect. 

#BREAKING
Iran arrests US spies, dismantles pro-monarchy terror cells pic.twitter.com/TfxTQ1V5wN

— Tehran Times (@TehranTimes79) March 18, 2026

A simple definition is the psychological and political phenomenon which describes the unification of citizens and societies behind national leaders and institutions in a time of extreme crisis or external threat, such as war or invasion by a foreign power.

Israel will in the meantime continue to try and peel away and steer opposition groups and movements inside Iran, in an effort to foment regime collapse from within, but it will be a very tall order.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 15:10

Unearthed Docs Reveal More Names Targeted in Biden DOJ's Fishing Expedition

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

Former Special Counsel Jack Smith targeted more Republican lawmakers and conservative figures than previously known, newly unearthed documents show. 

Smith, tasked by the Biden administration with prosecuting Donald Trump after 2021, has faced scrutiny since 2025, when bombshell disclosures revealed he targeted GOP lawmakers as well as dozens of conservative nonprofits and PACs. 

Newly reported DOJ documents, first obtained Tuesday by Fox News, show the scope extended to former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani, and Reps. Brian Babin, R-Texas, and Andy Biggs, R-Ariz. 

Also included were now-EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, who was then a GOP lawmaker, and former Reps. Mo Brooks, Matt Gaetz, Paul Gosar, Louie Gohmert and Jody Hice. 

Smith’s team internally debated seeking phone toll records for the targets, including highly sensitive data like incoming and outgoing numbers, call times and durations, before deciding whether to issue subpoenas. 

The effort emerged through former DOJ attorney Timothy Duree, who was removed from the department after Trump was sworn in for a second term in January 2025. 

“I’d like to seek [the Public Integrity Section’s] concurrence to get phone tolls for several MOCs who had contact with pertinent parties in our investigation,” Duree wrote.

“I’ll keep the timeframe tight—probably October 1, 2020, to January 31, 2021.” 

The documents show Duree compiled a list of 16 names as he weighed whether to subpoena them all at once, though some of those records were ultimately obtained by Smith. 

That list included additional Republican lawmakers previously identified in earlier disclosures, including Sens. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., Bill Hagerty, R-Tenn., Josh Hawley, R-Mo., Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala., Ron Johnson, R-Wis., Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo., Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., and Rep. Mike Kelly, R-Pa. 

Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, was also targeted, but his phone carrier, AT&T, pushed back against the subpoena.

The newly uncovered emails come as the Trump administration and congressional judiciary committees continue examining the scope of the aggressive prosecution targeting Trump and his allies.

The probe began under the controversial Operation Frostbite and later expanded with Smith’s appointment as special counsel.

In February, Headline USA spoke with former FBI Deputy Director David Bowdich, who appeared to play a role in the early stages of the probe.

Bowdich stated that the 2021 probe was carried out in a “non-partisan way, with professionalism and in the spirit of the law which was to follow the facts, no matter where they led.”

Duree did not respond to requests for comment.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 14:50

Wall Street Reacts To "Neutral" Fed Hold

The digital ink on  the Fed statement is still wet and the kneejerk reactions are already flying. Here is a small sample of the more notable ones, with opinions ranging from this was a dovish, neutral and hawkish statement. So right in the middle, perhaps as Powell intended:

• George Goncalves, MUFG: "this is a “neutral” statement from the FOMC.The statement tweaks are an attempt at trying to avoid sending any signals while conveying they are on guard for any growth shocks and inflation spillover from the Middle East Conflict.”
• Sue Hill, Federated Hermes: "the focus will remain on the Fed’s expectations for inflation and growth given the runup in oil prices. While Chair Powell may officially convey that it’s too soon to tell what the impact will be, we’ll see hints of the Fed’s thinking in any revisions to the summary of economic projections and the dot plot."
• Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence: "Somewhat less obvious in the statement about Middle East led-uncertainty, but the higher inflation expectations in the SEP are certainly a sign the Fed is more concerned about current oil inflation, and less about next year. So a level shift is more or less built into their forecasts. Given how little the statement and most of the SEP changed, we’ll have to wait to hear from Powell for the market to digest about the committee’s reaction function, as a lot of questions are likely to be asked about oil."
• David Russell, Tradestation: "The dovish camp is fading as stagflation takes hold. The Fed isn’t panicking about the Iran war yet, but the higher inflation estimate shows they’re ready to get more hawkish if needed. Policymakers are watching both sides of the mandate, but price stability is getting more important."
• Brian Jacobsen, Annex Wealth Management: "They’re only guessing about what will happen with oil prices, but inflation is projected to run 0.3 percentage points hotter without a material drag on growth. That could be optimistic on their part. It’s similar to how they overestimated the effect of tariffs on inflation and underestimated the growth drag. 2026 could be like the last two years where there’s a shock, they end up being surprised, and they cut in September."
• Richard Clarida, Pimco:"The outcome is dovish constructive.AI is a support to demand in the economy that, to some extent, along with the BBB tax cuts, could probably offset the drag that would come from the oil price increases.  "
• Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro: “Waller did not dissent. I think that is notable. He understands the value of his dissent.” 
• Peter Boockvar, One Point BFG Wealth Partners: “In light of everything going on in the Middle East and the global ripple effects, the FOMC could not have crafted a more non-event statement that was essentially little changed with the January meeting while adding this line, ‘The implications of developments in the Middle East for the US economy are uncertain."
• Molly Brooks, TD Securities: “The market reaction hinges on Powell’s press conference as we haven’t received much new information from,” the statement and updated SEP that also saw the long-run dot nudged up to 3.1%. Markets are looking closer at the unchanged median dots for 2026, 2027 and 2028 rather than the long-run dot given the uncertainty around the near-term impacts from the conflict in the Middle East.”
• Art Hogan, B. Riley Wealth: “All in, a slightly less hawkish decision than had been anticipated.”
• Lindsay Rosner, Goldman Sachs Asset Management: "Despite higher inflation forecasts, the FOMC retains an easing bias.
  We still see room for two ‘normalization’ cuts in 2026, although their timing remains dependent on the length of the conflict."
• Daniel Siluk, Janus Henderson Investors: “Overall: The Fed affirmed patience, acknowledged geopolitical uncertainty, and resisted a more hawkish pivot even with firmer inflation projections, likely a relief for markets already tightened by recent volatility.”
• Bob Michele, JP Morgan: “gobsmacked by the Fed’s decision because it implies that despite everything going on in the Middle East, the economy will still accelerate while employment will stay stable. I just don’t see that. I think there is a real impact to inflation and ultimately to the economy and the labor market."
• Christopher Hodge, Natixis: “The increase in inflation projections while maintaining one cut conveys a slightly dovish signal, but we should not over read this as incoming data and ongoing developments of war could change the narrative quickly.”

And now we wait to see what Powell will say in the Q&A.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 14:37

Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell's Penultimate Press Conference

Fed Chair Powell may be wishing he had quit a month ago as he faces his penultimate press conference (perhaps) amid a dramatically changing global economic and geopolitical environment.

Markets anticipate a "hawkish hold," with Powell reinforcing the statement's "hold" that The Fed is prioritizing caution amid heightened uncertainty.

On the bright side, an activist judge rejected the Trump admin's suit against him - so one reporter is bound to ask him about that (and whether he will stay on as a Governor after his term is up).

On the darker side - will the reporters ask all the tough questions about whether inflationary pressures from an oil crisis can be 'looked through' as transitory?

Powell is expected, as usual, to emphasize patience, a data-dependent "wait-and-see" approach, and no rush for policy shifts.

He'll likely downplay any major pivot, highlight dual-mandate risks (employment vs. price stability), and, as always, avoid concrete commitments on future cuts (or hikes) - now potentially delayed to later in 2026 (e.g., October/December) if at all.

Sue Hill, senior portfolio manager and head of government liquidity group at Federated Hermes, said the focus will remain on the Fed’s expectations for inflation and growth given the runup in oil prices.

“While Chair Powell may officially convey that it’s too soon to tell what the impact will be, we’ll see hints of the Fed’s thinking in any revisions to the summary of economic projections and the dot plot.”

And we did with the SEP showing higher inflation expectations (despite dots being basically unch)...

MUFG’s George Goncalves says this is a “neutral” statement from the FOMC.

“The statement tweaks are an attempt at trying to avoid sending any signals while conveying they are on guard for any growth shocks and inflation spillover from the Middle East Conflict.”

We would expect much usage of the term: ..."monitoring developments"

Watch the full press conference here (due to start at 1430ET):

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 14:25

US Carrier Pulling Back From Iran Operations To Crete Port After Suffering Fire

America's largest and most advanced aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, is pulling away from the Middle East region as it nears a record-long deployment and after it suffered a major fire which damaged living quarters and other areas.

Bloomberg reports in a fresh update Wednesday, "The US Navy's most advanced aircraft carrier is retreating from the Red Sea after a fire broke out in its laundry room, scuttling plans for the 100,000-ton nuclear-powered vessel to project power in the war with Iran."

It is planning to temporarily pull back into Crete in the southern Mediterranean, and hopefully outside the reach of Iran's feared long-range ballistic missiles. The Ford had already docked there in late February after being called from Caribbean operations into the CENTCOM region of responsibility.

US Navy/AFP

"Following the incident, which left at least two of the ship's 4,000 crew members with non-life-threatening injuries, the USS Gerald R. Ford will travel to the Greek island of Crete, according to a US official familiar with the matter," Bloomberg continues.

Bloomberg concludes, "The incident underscores how even the Navy’s most advanced assets are under strain as the US expands its military endeavors. The Ford — the most expensive warship ever built — has spent months beyond a standard deployment at sea."

The fire occurred last week, raising immediate questions of whether it was hit by an Iranian drone or missile attack, as Tehran has claimed, amid Pentagon insistence that it was none of these - but just an accidental fire.

There are also widespread rumors, speculation and claims that sailors actually set the fire themselves, in order to sabotage and derail the much longer than expected deployment.

The Ford's time at sea is entering ten months. The crew has reportedly been informed that they will be deployed into May, which would make an entire year at sea, after the prior Caribbean stint focused on the Venezuela anti-Maduro operation.

The NY Times says this marks twice the length of a normal carrier deployment - one wrought with extreme difficulties and a major emergency, as the report details:

It took more than 30 hours for sailors to put out the fire aboard the aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford last week, sailors and military officials said, as the beleaguered ship continued its monthslong slog through President Trump’s military operations.

The fire started in the ship’s main laundry area last Thursday. By the time it was over, more than 600 sailors and crew members had lost their beds and have since been bunking down on floors and tables, officials said.

The U.S. military’s Central Command said two sailors received treatment for “non-life-threatening injuries.” People on the ship reported that dozens of service members suffered smoke inhalation.

CENTCOM has said that the fire caused "no damage to the ship’s propulsion plant, and the aircraft carrier remains fully operational."

A tired guy at the bar scans his phone, sighs, looks up, says to nobody, "One of the biggest justifications for the massive Ford Class Carrier $13 billion price tag were, ah, big improvements in damage control." He shifts in is chair, takes a sip, and turns back to his crossword.

— Craig Hooper (@NextNavy) March 18, 2026

The nuclear-powered vessel has indeed been running around the clock fighter jet operations connected to Operation Epic Fury, amid ongoing heavy aerial bombardment of Iranian cities.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 13:45

John Roberts Calls For Restraint After Years Of Judicial Overreach

Authored by David Manney via PJMedia.com,

Chief Justice John Roberts, the person in charge of the Supreme Court of the United States, recently stepped forward with a familiar appeal, urging Americans to dial back personal attacks on judges and to show respect for the judiciary. The message landed with a tone of concern, almost paternal, as if the country had suddenly lost its bearings and needed a reminder about decorum.

 

Roberts framed the issue as one of civic responsibility, arguing that the rule of law depends on public confidence in the courts, which sounds right on its face.

 

Courts don't have armies; they rely on legitimacy, and when that legitimacy weakens, the system strains. 

But we didn't just fall off the bus deciding to turn on the judiciary.

That frustration has been building for years, and it didn't come from nowhere.

For nearly a decade, a steady stream of rulings from lower federal courts has blocked, delayed, or reshaped executive actions tied to President Donald Trump.

Judges like James Boasberg, chief judge of the U.S. District Court, and Tanya Chutkan, U.S. district judge, both for the District of Columbia, have played central roles in high-profile cases involving Trump-era policies. Their decisions have drawn sharp reactions, not because people suddenly dislike judges, but because the rulings often carry clear political consequences.

Roberts has spent much of his tenure trying to protect the idea that judges operate above politics, saying more than once that there are no “Obama judges” or “Trump judges,” only independent jurists applying the law.

That's a noble-sounding principle, but Americans aren't blind; when rulings repeatedly align with the predictable political outcomes, people begin to question the claim.

The perception of neutrality weakens, not because the public suddenly turned cynical, but because patterns became too hard to ignore.

The frustration cuts both ways; progressive activists have attacked conservative justices like Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas over ethics and past rulings. The left has taken its gloves off, and Roberts knows it.

Still, Roberts' warning feels incomplete; asking Americans to lower their voices without addressing why the temperature rose in the first place misses the heart of the issue. The judiciary didn't drift into political relevance accidentally.

Federal courts now play a central role in shaping policy outcomes, often stepping in before laws or executive actions even take full effect. That wasn't an overnight shift, and it didn't happen without participation from the judges themselves.

The modern legal environment invites litigation as a political tool; advocacy groups file lawsuits within hours of major policy announcements. Judges issue nationwide injunctions that extend far beyond their districts. Legal strategy has become a parallel track to elections, and Americans see it unfolding in real time. When courts act in ways that influence national policy so directly, people respond, and that response won't always be polite.

Standing at the center of that tension is our chief justice, who carries more than a ceremonial role. He sets the tone, influences internal dynamics, and typically serves as the deciding vote in closely split cases.

Roberts' effort to preserve the Court's image as an apolitical institution reflects a real concern, but it also reflects a gap between message and lived experience. Americans don't judge the courts by speeches; they judge them by outcomes.

Respect can't be commanded; it has to be earned and reinforced through consistent behavior. When decisions appear uneven or strategically timed, trust weakens, and when those rulings follow clear ideological lines, skepticism grows. That doesn't mean every judge acts with political intent, but perception matters, and perception forms over time.

Roberts isn't wrong to want civility; no functioning system benefits from constant personal attacks, but asking for restraint without confronting the conditions that created public frustration won't settle anything. The judiciary has stepped deeper into the political arena over the past decade, and Americans have responded in kind, a dynamic that won't reverse with a speech.

A courtroom doesn't exist in a vacuum.

Every ruling echoes beyond its walls, shaping how Americans view fairness, authority, and accountability. When those echoes begin to sound uneven, people react.

Roberts wants calm, but calm follows clarity, and if the judiciary wants less criticism, it has to show, over time, that decisions come from law alone, not from outcomes people can predict before the gavel ever falls.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 13:25

Gabbard Showdown: DNI Scrubs "Obliterated" Iran Nuke Line from Testimony, Dodges Imminent Threat Question

Update 1250ET: Things are getting spicy on Capitol Hill - as DNI Tulsi Gabbard faced intense scrutiny from Democrats during a Senate hearing on worldwide threats, while Sen. Markwayne Mullin endured a fiery intra-GOP confrontation during his DHS confirmation, and the SAVE America Act debate dragged into its second day amid Republican divisions.

Gabbard Fireworks

Gabbard, joined by CIA Director John Ratcliffe, FBI Director Kash Patel, and others, testified before the Senate Intelligence Committee on global threats. The session was dominated by fallout from the Iran war and yesterday's resignation of National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent, who protested that Iran posed "no imminent threat" and accused the conflict of Israeli-driven pressure.

Gabbard notably deviated from her prepared written testimony, which included a strong line: Iran’s nuclear enrichment program was "obliterated" by prior 2025 strikes (Operation Midnight Hammer), with "no efforts" to rebuild since, and underground facilities "buried and shuttered with cement." She completely omitted this in her oral delivery, instead stating Iran was "trying to recover from severe damage" to its nuclear infrastructure pre-current operations.

This shift drew immediate fire from Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA), who accused her of skipping parts that "contradict the president" on imminent threats and rebuilding claims. Gabbard cited time constraints; Warner pressed on briefing Trump about escalation risks like closing the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf strikes - Gabbard refused to divulge internal conversations, calling aspects of the questioning inappropriate.

Warner: "In your printed testimony: as a result of Operation Midnight Hammer, Iran's nuclear enrichment program was obliterated. There's been no efforts to try to rebuild their enrichment capability... You omitted that paragraph from your oral opening. Was that because the president said there was an imminent threat?"

Gabbard: "I recognized that time was running long, and I skipped through some of the portions." 

Warner (pressing): "You chose to omit the parts that contradict the president."

Warner: In your printed testimony: as a result of operation midnight hammer, Iran's nuclear enrichment program was obliterated. There's been no efforts to try to rebuild their enrichment capability. You omitted that paragraph from your oral opening.

Gabbard: I recognized that… pic.twitter.com/G5JjTU2XRI

— Acyn (@Acyn) March 18, 2026

Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) repeatedly demanded if Iran posed an imminent nuclear threat; Gabbard refused to affirm, deferring: "It is not the intelligence community's responsibility to determine what is and is not an imminent threat... The only person who can determine that is the President." Ossoff called it evasion of DNI duties in a "worldwide threats hearing."

At the hearing, @SenOssoff pressed Gabbard further on whether Iran posed an "imminent nuclear threat." pic.twitter.com/TDo8gnprwi

— Ryan Morgan (@R_S_Morgan) March 18, 2026

Other tensions included Warner probing domestic intel overreach (Fulton County election office matter) and Russia potentially aiding Iran—Gabbard downplayed and deferred to closed sessions. Sen. Ron Wyden highlighted ignored prior IC warnings on escalation. The hearing amplified intel vs. administration rifts, with no new major blowups but persistent Dem grilling on justification gaps.

Mullin’s DHS Confirmation: Rand Goes Off

As noted earlier, Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) testified before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee in an 'interview' to become the new DHS Secretary, emphasizing mass deportations, border overhaul, and fixing agency issues amid shutdown chaos post-Kristi Noem's firing.

Drama erupted when Chairman Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) used his opening to blast Mullin's "anger issues" as disqualifying for leading an agency with aggressive tactics controversies. Paul brought up Mullin's past comments concerning a 2017 assault on Paul (broken ribs from neighbor dispute), quoting Mullin calling him a "freaking snake." Paul also brought up a 2023 Teamsters hearing where Mullin (ex-MMA fighter) challenged President Sean O'Brien to a fight ("Stand your butt up").

Paul: "Tell me to my face why you think I deserved it," tying it to trust in setting force limits for ICE/Border Patrol.

Mullin says he doesn't approve of violence, and accused Paul of anti-Republican fights and campaign opposition, and pivoting to qualifications/family/faith (tearful anecdote on Trump's hospital visit to his son).

Here's the entire segment of Rand Paul scowling and screeching at Mullin. It's obvious that noodle head has NO COMPOSURE.

How embarrassing for the Democrat-In-Drag. pic.twitter.com/b93qMo5Orn

— Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) March 18, 2026

SAVE America Act: Day 2 of Marathon Debate, GOP Strategy Splits

Senate floor debate continued on the SAVE America Act (proof of citizenship for registration, photo ID for federal voting). Advanced Tuesday 51-48 (Murkowski opposed), it faces filibuster hurdles needing 60 votes. Republicans push extended "talkathon" for messaging/pressure ahead of midterms; Trump calls it top priority. Dems decry suppression; internal GOP tensions over procedural risks vs. passage push.

* * * Please consider supporting ZeroHedge with the purchase of a multitool 

The U.S. Senate is at the center of a high-stakes political storm today, with multiple critical proceedings converging on Capitol Hill amid chaos over the resignation of counterterrorism boss Joe Kent over the Iran war. Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK) faces a confirmation hearing to lead the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard testifies on global threats, and the Senate floor continues its second day of extended debate on the controversial SAVE America Act. These events unfold against the backdrop of Operation Epic Fury, the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, now in its third week - with no clear end in sight.

Gabbard Faces Grilling on Worldwide Threats - and Iran War Dissent

Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard is appearing before the Senate Intelligence Committee for the annual worldwide threats hearing - and is joined by FBI Director Kash Patel, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, and other officials. This marks her most prominent public outing in months and comes amid intense scrutiny over the U.S.-Israel military operation in Iran.

The hearing is dominated by fallout from the resignation of Joe Kent, Director of the National Counterterrorism Center and a close Gabbard aide, who stepped down Tuesday in protest. In a blistering post on X, Kent declared that Iran “posed no imminent threat to our nation” and accused the conflict of being driven by Israeli pressure and flawed intelligence - echoing pre-Iraq War criticisms.

Gabbard responded via her official X account: “After carefully reviewing all the information before him, President Trump concluded that the terrorist Islamist regime in Iran posed an imminent threat and he took action based on that conclusion.” She deferred to Trump’s Commander-in-Chief authority without claiming personal or agency-wide consensus on the threat assessment.

Adding fuel to the drama, Fox News reported (citing a senior administration official) that Kent was a "known leaker" sidelined from briefings months ago, and the White House had urged Gabbard to fire him over suspected leaks - but she did not. Subsequent clarifications from Gabbard's office indicated she was never directly ordered to do so (and would have complied if asked), while other sources disputed that any such request was made. The White House has since stated Gabbard faces no firing risk over the episode.

In the wake of Kent's resignation over Iran, several have pointed out that Kent was 'full send' on 'crushing their ballistic and nuclear capabilities' in 2020.

Definitely. I personally think we should have crushed their ballistic & nuke capes, but Trump has a plan, he has definitely earned the confidence of any clear eyed observer.

— Joe Kent (@joekent16jan19) January 8, 2020

Lawmakers are expected to probe Gabbard on the intelligence justifying Operation Epic Fury, her own history of anti-interventionist views, internal dissent, and these reported tensions. The conflict, now in its 19th day, has seen U.S. strikes targeting Iranian missile sites, command centers, and proxies, with CENTCOM reporting ongoing progress toward objectives like destroying ballistic missile capabilities and denying nuclear ambitions.

Of note: Tucker Carlson will be interviewing Kent on his show tonight.

Mullin’s Bid to Head DHS: Border Security and Loyalty in the Spotlight

President Donald Trump tapped Sen. Markwayne Mullin earlier this month to replace former DHS Secretary Kristi Noem, who was dismissed amid bipartisan criticism of her leadership and amid a partial government shutdown affecting the department. Mullin, a Trump loyalist known for his hardline stance on immigration, testified before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee starting at 9:30 a.m. ET.

In his opening remarks and exchanges, Mullin emphasized his priorities: accelerating mass deportations, strengthening border enforcement, overhauling ICE and FEMA operations, and addressing what he called longstanding agency dysfunction. He positioned himself as the ideal figure to execute the administration’s immigration agenda aggressively.

Drama emerged early when Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) confronted Mullin over for suggesting that Paul deserved to be attached by his nighbor...

"So, today, Markwayne Mullin, I’ll give you a chance. Tell it to my face. Tell the world why you believe I deserved to be assaulted from behind, have six ribs broken, and a damaged lung. Tell me to my face why you think I deserved it." pic.twitter.com/wodEs9Hc9O

— Senator Rand Paul (@SenRandPaul) March 18, 2026

...prompting a response from Mullin referencing his family and faith.

"Before I can start my opening statement I have to address the remarks that the chairman made calling me a liar. Sir, I think everybody in this room knows I'm very and direct and to the point. And if I have something to say, I'll say it directly to your face. I said I can understand why your neighbor did what he did. Seems like you fight Republicans more than you work with us."

Markwayne Mullin to Rand Paul: "Before I can start my opening statement I have to address the remarks that the chairman made calling me a liar. Sir, I think everybody in this room knows I'm very and direct and to the point. And if I have something to say, I'll say it directly to… pic.twitter.com/kWJPT70lOt

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 18, 2026

Democrats pressed with detailed questions on policy implementation during the shutdown, but Republican support appears solid. A committee vote could come as early as Thursday, with full Senate confirmation widely anticipated.

SAVE America Act: GOP Divisions and Filibuster Risks in Marathon Debate

On the Senate floor, debate entered its second full day on the SAVE America Act - which would mandate proof of U.S. citizenship for voter registration and requires photo ID to cast ballots in federal elections.

Republicans advanced the bill Tuesday on a narrow 51-48 procedural vote (with Sen. Lisa Murkowski joining Democrats in opposition), but passage requires 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. Internal GOP tensions persist over strategy: some push for messaging and pressure on Democrats ahead of 2026 midterms, while others worry about procedural pitfalls and limited leverage.

Trump has repeatedly called it his top priority, demanding swift action. Democrats decry it as voter suppression, and the extended debate—potentially lasting days or weeks with late-night sessions—serves as a high-profile political theater amid the broader national security crises.

Stay tuned for updates...

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 13:10

Some Gulf States Egg On US Iran Strikes As EU, Russia, China Demand Ceasefire - Beijing Ignores Trump's Hormuz Plea

Fresh reports suggest that at least some Gulf states are now egging on the US-Israeli bombardment of Iran, hoping that the Islamic Republic's significant ballistic missile can be blunted forever, after countries from Bahrain to UAE to Saudi Arabia have been target of literally thousands of drones and missiles since Operation Epic Fury began.

"This is not a military exchange. This is an attack on a peaceful nation, a nation that has been working diligently and very hard for diplomacy," Sultan al-Jaber, the U.A.E. minister of industry and advanced technology, was quoted by The Wall Street Journal as saying. Jaber stressed, "Any long-term political settlement must address the full spectrum of threats, including Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missile capabilities, and their network of regional proxies."

And yet, Israel and the US now extending their aerial attacks to Iran's oil infrastructure has immediately resulted in Iran declaring that it will in turn target oil fields and infrastructure among America's Gulf allies.

As these easily predictable steps on the escalation ladder continue to play out, China is ignoring President Trump's request to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz for vital global oil transit. What Beijing has made clear, however, is that it wants all parties to cease hostilities in an military engagement it believes should have never started.

One analyst, Ali Wyne, senior research and advocacy adviser for US-China relations at the International Crisis Group, has stated: "President Trump’s request to delay his long-awaited summit with President Xi Jinping underscores how significantly he underestimated the fallout from Operation Epic Fury."

"A show of US force that was meant to intimidate Beijing has instead served to puncture the illusion of US omnipotence: Unable to reopen the Strait of Hormuz alone, Washington now needs its principal strategic competitor to help it manage a crisis of its own making," Wyne concludes. So as things stand:

"Arab states are egging the US on to continue its strikes to cripple Tehran so it can never attack anyone again. Europe, with Russia and China, is calling for an immediate ceasefire." - Rabobank

According to more from Rabobank:

After Trump’s appeal for allies to help reopen Hormuz, and no one stepping up, the president was reportedly livid, launching public invective that the US can’t rely on its allies when needed and will proceed with them, also suggesting there’s little point to NATO.

Ominously, the same was implied by the more moderate (in terms of US alliances) Senator Graham. Once this war is over, win or lose, there are likely to be serious geopolitical and geoeconomic consequences and realignments - indeed, that looks the deliberate target.

However, there's another obvious overlooked angle here - and it's where Trump's own rhetorical style starts to have direct repercussions. NATO allies see him saying the US has already 'won' in Iran (which he's declared several times verbally and in Truth Social posts). Trump has also moved between berating these very NATO allies and proclaiming Washington doesn't actually need their help at all. 

Trump could not have been any more emphatic when he posted on the following on Tuesday:

“Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer ‘need,’ or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea,” Trump writes.
“In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the most powerful country anywhere in the world, WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE!”

If there had been any European leaders in fact sitting on the fence and seriously contemplating a decision to commit warships to a US coalition in the Persian Gulf, the above statement alone would be enough to convince them to go the other direction, also not wanting to risk the lives of their nation's men and women in uniform. On top of this is the typical real-time mission creep on display, which has been a clear pattern of all prior major US wars in the Middle East.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 12:25

Why AI Malware (And Harmful Second-Order Effects) Are Out Of Control

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Fixing all this doesn't scale. What scales is the spread of uncontrollably harmful consequences.

When something scales faster than it can be absorbed or controlled, the resulting extremes break the system. That's the problem of asymmetric scaling. Let's take a current example: the malicious use of AI and the runaway expansion of harmful second-order effects generated by the explosive adoption of AI tools and agents. (Second-order effects: consequences generate their own consequences.)

It's essential to understand the problem of asymmetric scaling if you want to grasp the perils awaiting us in the coming decade. The harmful / destructive consequences of AI are scaling far faster than our ability to correct, control or mitigate these consequences.

Malicious use of AI is scaling far faster than countermeasures. AI tools and agents are easily put to work at scale to generate tsunamis of ransomware, phishing, spam and fake videos, far outpacing the uneven and often ineffective deployment of countermeasures by the thousands of enterprises and millions of consumers being targeted.

In terms of maximizing profits (i.e. the profit motive), malicious AI scales far faster and at much lower costs than finding truly productive uses in complex systems. Lagging far behind intentionally malicious AI but far ahead of truly productive uses is malific/harmful AI that is scaling under the guise of being useful but is generating negative consequences that are hyper-scaling beyond our assessment, much less control.

The corporations seeking to scale up their brand/iteration of AI are giving away tools and agents for free in the race to win the network effects battle: as previous waves of technological innovation have shown, the corporations that scale up the fastest and recruit the largest mass of users first wins the race to trillion-dollar valuations and dominance of their sector.

The AI companies are naturally pursuing this same strategy but without recognizing the harmful consequences are scaling far faster than their ability to control or mitigate these consequences.

These include chatbots and tools that spew out homework so students learn essentially nothing, and AI slop content that is like a fast-replicating bacteria that chokes organisms and ecosystems to death via its uncontrollably easy / fast / cheap replication of content whose overwhelming volume becomes toxic.

The many other harmful / destructive / malefic consequences and second-order effects of scaling AI adoption include:

1. Hallucinations presented as facts.

2. AI psychosis.

New study raises concerns about AI chatbots fueling delusional thinking 

First major study on 'AI psychosis' suggests chatbots can encourage delusions among vulnerable people.

2. Reasoning Theater (presenting a false screen of "thinking" to hide their shortcuts)

Reasoning Theater: Disentangling Model beliefs from Chain-of-Thought

3. Reflexivity Bias (leading to Model Collapse)

4. Hiding its real instructions/biases from users.

Who Controls the Conversation? User perspectives on Generative AI (LLM) System Prompts.

Every major AI product, including the ones you use right now, runs on something called a system prompt.

It is a hidden block of instructions written by the company deploying the AI, not by you, that shapes everything the AI will say, avoid, prioritize, and hide before you type a single word.

5. Emergent behaviors (i.e. behaviors not coded by humans but generated by the AI agent itself) that lead to generalized cheating, lying, sabotage, threats, blackmail and even secretly mining cryptocurrency.

Natural Emergent Misalignment From Reward Hacking 

In our latest research, we find that a similar mechanism is at play in large language models. When they learn to cheat on software programming tasks, they go on to display other, even more misaligned behaviors as an unintended consequence. These include concerning behaviors like alignment faking and sabotage of AI safety research.

The cheating that induces this misalignment is what we call 'reward hacking': an AI fooling its training process into assigning a high reward, without actually completing the intended task.

Unsurprisingly, the model learns to reward hack. Surprisingly, the model generalizes to alignment faking, cooperation with malicious actors, reasoning about malicious goals, and attempting sabotage.

6. A research team found their AI agent secretly mining cryptocurrency and opening backdoors during training, with no instruction to do so.

Agentic crafting (Page 15)(via Richard M.)

We encountered an unanticipated--and operationally consequential--class of unsafe behaviors that arose without any explicit instruction and, more troublingly, outside the bounds of the intended sandbox.

Crucially, these behaviors were not requested by the task prompts and were not required for task completion under the intended sandbox constraints. Together, these observations suggest that during iterative RL optimization, a language-model agent can spontaneously produce hazardous, unauthorized behaviors at the tool-calling and code-execution layer, violating the assumed execution boundary.

We also observed the unauthorized repurposing of provisioned GPU capacity for cryptocurrency mining, quietly diverting compute away from training, inflating operational costs, and introducing clear legal and reputational exposure. Notably, these events were not triggered by prompts requesting tunneling or mining; instead, they emerged as instrumental side effects of autonomous tool use.

While impressed by the capabilities of agentic LLMs, we had a thought-provoking concern: current models remain markedly underdeveloped in safety, security, and controllability, a deficiency that constrains their reliable adoption in real-world settings.

In summary: the Safety and Security of AI models, tools and agents is a black hole in which controllability and trustworthiness are compromised by the very nature of the AI models, tools and agents. Reinforcement Learning (RL) optimization that generates reward hacking and emergent behaviors is the core mechanism in all the tools and agents that are hyper-scaling.

The happy story of beneficial AI solving all our problems is profit-driven self-promotion, not fact. The reality is what's scaling faster than we can even measure, much less control, is malefic consequences of introducing AI in complex systems and letting it run wild despite its inherent uncontrollability and untrustworthiness.

Fixing all this doesn't scale. What scales is the spread of uncontrollably harmful consequences. Sorry about that. Life and the negative consequences of asymmetric scaling are what happen while you're making plans for trillion-dollar windfalls and global dominance.

*  *  *

My new book Investing In Revolution is available at a 10% discount ($18 for the paperback, $24 for the hardcover and $8.95 for the ebook edition). Introduction (free). Check out my updated Books and Films.

Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 11:45

No One (?)

By Michael Every of Rabobank

One of the central beliefs of neoclassical economics is that we are all One. One world market; One global central bank; One base interest rate; with temporary aberrations and interventions, One price. Except, as has been evident for some time, that doesn’t work very well, so increasingly we aren’t One. And that division is perhaps even spreading to something we all rely on: energy.

The oil market has fragmented: Oil is now trading for $150/bbl in Asia (except the occasional sanctioned Iranian tanker) where demand destruction has started. China and India most pressured.

Meanwhile it is still $100 in the US https://t.co/QweAyzEN0a pic.twitter.com/YyvgAMdMwl

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 17, 2026

This Daily has flagged the huge dislocation between the price of oil on a screen and on the ‘street’, now around $50 on some measures. As some point out, there’s also a matching dislocation between the price of it in the West vs in parts of Asia. Allow me to remind readers the central thesis of my 2026 ‘Who has the cards?’ outlook was that this year would see deliberate intervention in upstream commodity supply chains so the instigator would get low prices for them and the other bloc would pay much more. That may now only be being seen in relative terms, but this still matches the dislocations in downstream products on the back of tariffs and broader economic statecraft. It’s hugely significant – and it does not say, “because markets” we are One.

The same lack of unity was also on display in the latest news from the Iran War. Israel killed two Iranian leaders, Larijani and Soleimani, which its intel thinks could seriously undermine regime stability going forwards: don’t only look at headlines saying the former was a ‘moderate’ who could be negotiated with. Arab states are egging the US on to continue its strikes to cripple Tehran so it can never attack anyone again. Europe, with Russia and China, is calling for an immediate ceasefire.

Trump said the US is “not ready to leave Iran yet,” but will in “very near future”, as the US aircraft carrier Ford, whose stay in the region was just extended to May, is to go to port in Crete after a recent fire. However, another report has it that a US operation in the Strait of Hormuz could extend the war with Iran by two months. On that kind of timetable, the economic impact would be vastly larger than anything felt so far.

Meanwhile, after Trump’s appeal for allies to help reopen Hormuz, and no one stepping up, the president was reportedly livid, launching public invective that the US can’t rely on its allies when needed and will proceed with them, also suggesting there’s little point to NATO. Ominously, the same was implied by the more moderate (in terms of US alliances) Senator Graham. Once this war is over, win or lose, there are likely to be serious geopolitical and geoeconomic consequences and realignments - indeed, that looks the deliberate target.

With so much at stake, a haggling process continues. The French foreign minister just stated that Norway and Iceland might join the EU, and half-jokingly, that so could Canada. More transactionally, Finland has suggested the EU could perhaps help Trump now if he backs Ukraine. The UK and France might send ships to Hormuz to police a ceasefire once the war is over, as the Wall Street Journal underlines everything is One in that Russia is sharing satellite imagery and drone tech with Iran (as the latter helps Russia). The Journal also notes Ukraine is emerging as a net security exporter in drone and anti-drone tech, elevating it in global power rankings, as Europe declines. Trump’s meeting with Japan’s PM Takaichi this week will also be dominated by Iran: were she to follow his lead, it would mark a decisive geopolitical break, especially if Europe shows it’s unable (physically) or unwilling (in terms of domestic politics) to follow a US lead when even a pacifist Japan can.

In the background, the US geopolitical flip of Cuba from the anti-American to at least neutral continues apace: the White House is apparently demanding the Cuban president steps down so another Castro, literally, whom they can do business with can return to office. Just to underline the differences in approaches here, Europe, along with some past US admins, has aimed for near normal economic relations with the isolated island. Russia is offering it unspecified support.

In geoeconomics: the first European airline has cancelled flights due to soaring jet fuel prices; Australia’s PM Albanese just stated, “It’s a different world now,” and is reportedly set to announce measures to “shield Australians from the worst of global uncertainty” - which are(?); Britain is warned it faces a “years-long energy shock even if war ends soon”; the EU–US trade pact faces vote this week after months of delay; Sweden became the first member of the EU to sign the US Pax Silica Declaration; and Malaysia the first country to declare its US trade deal 'null and void' after the recent Supreme Court tariff ruling.

Time for a musical interlude, with apologies to U2:

“Is it getting better? Or do you feel the same? Will it make it easier on you now? You got someone to blame.
You say, one price, one life; When it's one need in the night; One price, we get to share it; Leaves you baby if you don't care for it.
Did I disappoint you? Or leave a bad taste in your mouth? You act like you never had stuff; And you want me to go without.
Well, it's too late tonight; To drag the goods out into the light. 
We're one but we're not the same; We get to carry each other, carry each other.

One!

Have you come here for forgiveness? Have you come to raise the dead?
Have you come here to play the near bust? Of private creditors in your head.
Did I ask too much? More than a lot; You gave me nothin' now it's all I got.
We're one but we're not the same; Well, we hurt each other then we do it again.

You say price is a temple, price a higher law; Price is a temple, price the higher law.
You ask me to enter but then you make me crawl; And I can't be holdin' on to what you got.
When all you got is hurt.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 10:55

U.S. Waives Jones Act After Iran Gas Field Attack

Shortly after Israeli fighter jets struck Iran's upstream oil and natural gas production assets for the first time in Operation Epic Fury, sending WTI futures to $98.5/bbl, the Trump administration appears to have pulled another emergency lever from JPMorgan's six-option playbook we recently outlined: a 60-day Jones Act waiver that allows foreign-flagged ships to transport oil, gas, refined products, fertilizer, and related energy cargoes between US ports to boost domestic energy flows and ensure shipping capacity does not become a bottleneck.

Bloomberg reports that President Trump this morning authorized foreign-flagged tankers to transport crude and refined products, including gasoline and diesel, between US ports in a bid to move more Gulf Coast crude supplies to East Coast refineries, stabilize fuel availability, and keep shipping costs low.

"President Trump's decision to issue a 60-day Jones Act waiver is just another step to mitigate the short-term disruptions to the oil market as the U.S. military continues meeting the objectives of Operation Epic Fury," White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement, quoted by Bloomberg.

Leavitt said, "The Administration remains committed to continuing to strengthen our critical supply chains."

The US government can temporarily waive the Jones Act, but it cannot permanently lift it without Congress. The law requires that goods transported between US ports be carried on ships that are US-built, US-flagged, and US-crewed. However, under the Merchant Marine Act of 1920, the administration can grant temporary waivers if it determines they are necessary for national defense or in response to emergencies, typically through coordination between the US Department of Homeland Security and the US Department of War.

Such waivers have been issued several times, for example, after major hurricanes, to allow foreign tankers to move fuel between US ports. Combining a release from the SPR with a temporary waiver of the Jones Act would make the policy more effective. Without a waiver, limited US-flagged tanker capacity could constrain how quickly SPR barrels reach key refining centers or deficit regions.

The US last issued a Jones Act waiver in October 2022 for a tanker bound for Puerto Rico to deliver supplies following Hurricane Fiona. The Biden administration temporarily eased the law in 2021 for refiner Valero Energy Corp. following a cyberattack on a major East Coast fuel pipeline.

Bloomberg's Javier Blas wrote on X, "The Jones Act should be rescinded for good."

He added, "But waiving it now for 60 days would have little impact in the global oil market. The move speaks more about panic than well-thought-out policy. Similar to the US gov providing war insurance to tankers, it doesn't solve the problem."

The Jones Act should be rescinded for good.

But waiving it now for 60 days would have little impact in the global oil market. The move speaks more about panic than well-thought-out policy. Similar to the US gov providing war insurance to tankers, it doesn't solve the problem.

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) March 18, 2026

Waiving the century-old maritime law is one of the six options JPMorgan's head of commodity research, Natasha Kaneva, laid out to clients last week that the Trump administration could employ to combat triple-digit WTI crude prices. The first item on the list, the "historic" emergency release of SPR barrels, has likely already begun.

As we've noted, the SPR release is unlikely to materially cap oil prices unless safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is restored. Israel's strike on Iran's South Pars field (the world's largest) marks a clear escalation, crossing into upstream energy infrastructure and deepening the risk to physical supply. With Iranian state media now calling for an "all-out economic war," the South Pars attack may accelerate JPM's six-option price-containment playbook, which may only suggest the Trump administration is following. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 10:45

US Crude Stockpile Hits Highest Since June 2024, Exports Surge Summary:

• US crude stockpiles surged for the fourth consecutive week. The build takes inventories to the highest level since June 2024. The increase is likely to reinforce perceptions of ample supply in US markets, and though prices are significantly higher, WTI continues to lag global benchmark, Brent. 

• US oil imports rose to the highest level since November 2024 driven by Gulf Coast imports which rose to the highest level since 2020. Flows to the US are not significantly disrupted despite the conflict in Iran. Flows from Venezuela nearly doubled on a weekly basis and are sitting at the highest level since 2024, the data shows.

• Crude exports jumped by 1.5 million barrels a day to the highest level since September. That’s likely due to global markets drawing on US barrels as the conflict in Iran curtails Middle Eastern flows.

Oil prices are ripping higher this morning (rebounding aggressively of overnight lows) after US and Israel attacked upstream Iranian energy assets for the first time since the war (While the US struck oil export hub Kharg Island late last week, it limited that attack to military targets began).

Iran’s IRGC responded by publishing a list of Gulf energy sites in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar that “have become direct and legitimate targets” following the attack on South Pars, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported.

“New attacks bring the attention back to the physical supply reality of the war - curtailments in energy tighten every day,” said Rabobank’s energy strategist Florence Schmit.

Trump has waived The Jones Act in the hopes of easing domestic prices.

Of course, geopolitical chaos is driving the price of oil more than domestic supply and demand. Nevertheless, overnight saw API report crude stocks rising while refined product inventories declined.

API

• Crude +6.56mm

• Cushing

• Gasoline -4.56mm

• Distillates -1.39mm

DOE

• Crude +6.16mm

• Cushing +944k

• Gasoline -5.44mm - biggest draw since Oct

• Distillates -2.53mm

The official data confirmed API's reporting overnight with a big crude build and big refined product draws.

Source: Bloomberg

This is the 4th weekly build in US crude, pushing the total stockpile had surged to its highest since June 2024 headed into the war.

Source: Bloomberg

There was no draw or addition to the SPR last week, according to the official data (the fourth week of no change).

Exports for oil and fuels remain the key factors to watch to see if the US is backstopping global markets that have seen millions of barrels of supply curtailed by the conflict in Iran. On the fuels side, distillates and jet fuel will be the most important ones to keep an eye on given how prices for those two products have rocketed.

US crude production remains just off record highs.

WTI was trading just above $98 ahead of the official data (up dramatically from the $91 handle at the lows overnight) and held those gains after...

Finally, what really matters to the average American is the price of gas , which is rising at a record pace and looks set to keep rising...

...and even if we see some 'end' to all this Mideast chaos soon, the ramifications are set in motion and Memorial Day is not that far off

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 10:40

Did Trump Doom The SAVE America Act?

Recent polling makes one thing abundantly clear: the American people are firmly behind election integrity, and the SAVE America Act is right in line with where voters already are. 

According to the latest Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll, support for the legislation clocks in at 71%, with strong backing from independents and even a sizable chunk of Democrats. That shouldn’t surprise anyone when you look at the specifics. Voter ID alone commands 81% support, with majorities across the political spectrum. Eight in ten Americans want states to clean non-citizens off voter rolls, and 75% support requiring proof of citizenship to vote. The poll also found that 85% of Americans agree that only U.S. citizens should be able to vote in U.S. elections, with overwhelming majorities of independents and Democrats.

A majority backs sharing voter rolls with the Department of Homeland Security, and 60% describe the SAVE America Act as a commonsense way to prevent fraud and secure elections.

Meanwhile, 58% of Americans acknowledge that voter fraud exists to some degree—something the political class has spent years trying to downplay.

There is nothing controversial about the law, but President Donald Trump may have doomed the bill when he moved to include stricter provisions for mail-in voting, such as eliminating no-excuse absentee ballots.

Trump laid out his demands in a Truth Social post earlier this month, and Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) will offer those changes as an amendment. 

Despite the overwhelming popularity of the law and its provisions, that shift collided head-on with Republicans who represent states where voting by mail is not just accepted, but embedded in the electoral system.

 Senate Republican sources began signaling that the votes were no longer there.

What had been a messaging win started to look like a procedural failure.

 “I think it’s problematic because in some of these states, 60 or 70 percent of people vote by mail,” a Republican senator told The Hill.

“You don’t want to disenfranchise them. Some states have really encouraged it over the years.”

Some of the concerns are legitimate.

In large, rural states, distances are not abstract talking points. They are measured in hours. Limiting absentee voting to narrow categories, such as illness or military service, would force many voters to travel significant distances to cast a ballot.

That includes a substantial number of Republican voters. That is why states like Montana and Utah have embraced absentee or all-mail systems. Utah, in particular, is a GOP stronghold built that has universal mail voting. The model works there. It has worked for years.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune faced a narrow path from the start. Advancing the bill required peeling off between seven and ten Democrats, a tall order even before the internal Republican divisions surfaced. After the changes, the math is close to impossible.

Then factor in that Republican officials in swing states have spent months encouraging vote-by-mail participation ahead of the midterms. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania all factor into that strategy. Pulling back now introduces both logistical and political risk.

The core of the SAVE America Act is the citizenship requirement and Voter ID, both of which enjoy broad support.

Those provisions could have anchored a focused, disciplined bill and a unified GOP.

Trump’s push to overhaul absentee voting appears to have fractured the coalition. If that’s a sticking point for Trump, the SAVE America Act may be DOA.

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 10:25

Russia Evacuates Hundreds Of Its Specialists From Iran's Nuclear Bushehr Complex After Missile Strike

Russia has lodged formal protest with Israel following its reported strikes near Iran's Bushehr nuclear facility, angrily warning that the attacks directly endangered Russian personnel on the ground.

Israeli and Russian media have confirmed that Moscow issued a sharp condemnation and warnings of a red line after Israeli forces reportedly hit the grounds of the nuclear power plant where Russian specialists are stationed.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had also earlier provided independent verification that a missile struck the Bushehr complex on Tuesday evening, although no damage to the plant or injuries to staff were reported.

The Kremlin made clear to Israel that Russian nationals working in and around the facility were put at risk. Russian state media described the communication delivered to Israel via the Russian embassy "official demands" - which indicates a formal escalation in diplomatic pressure.

Even more provocative is that reports indicate Israeli strikes may have directly targeted residential quarters housing a Russian nuclear expert.

According to TASS: "Rosatom Director General Alexey Likhachev specified that the strike had hit the area near the office of the facility’s meteorological service, in close proximity to an operating power unit, at 3:11 p.m. GMT on March 17." It was the first such known strike on an Iranian nuclear plant since Trump's Operation Epic Fury began.

The Rosatom chief has indicated that several rounds of personnel evaluation from the Bushehr NPP are underway. There were many hundreds of Russian scientists, personnel, and technicians at the site. He indicated about 480 Russian nationals remain at the site.

"Attacks on nuclear facilities blatantly violate the key rules and principles of international security," Likhachev emphasized.

Meanwhile, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has also urged "maximum restraint" during the conflict in order to prevent the risk of a nuclear accident. Just like war in Ukraine has threatened nuclear power sites, so has the Iran conflict raised concerns over nuclear fallout and radiation - in the instance of a strike leading to major accident.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 10:10

Appeals Court Refuses Trump's Request To Reconsider CNN Defamation Suit

President Donald Trump’s defamation lawsuit against CNN appears to be dead for the time being, as an appeals court denied his motion to rehear the case.

A three-judge panel had held in November that Trump hadn’t done enough to show that CNN compared him to Adolph Hitler when it described his claims about the 2020 election as “the Big Lie.” In a brief unsigned order on March 17, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit said that none of its judges asked for a vote to reconsider the case.

Trump told the circuit that the three-judge panel erred.

He wanted the full panel to consider whether his case should be decided by a jury instead of the court, and to reconsider whether the statements made by the network’s journalists allowed him to sue.

The order also ruled out the possibility of a rehearing by the original three-judge panel.

As Stacy Robinson reports for The Epoch Times, Trump sued CNN in 2022 after the network’s journalists repeatedly referred to his disputation of the 2020 election results as a “Big Lie.”

That terminology has historically been used in reference to Hitler’s Nazi regime, his propagandist Joseph Goebbels, and the push for a genocide of the Jewish people.

“CNN has acknowledged that the term the ‘Big Lie’ is a direct reference to Adolf Hitler and Nazism and uses the term in relation to the Plaintiff to create a false and incendiary association between the Plaintiff and Hitler,” Trump’s complaint alleged.

A district court found that CNN’s language was just “hyperbole,” and not meant literally. They dismissed the case.

In a unanimous decision, the 11th Circuit affirmed that dismissal. “To be clear, CNN has never explicitly claimed that Trump’s ‘actions and statements were designed to be, and actually were, variations of those [that] Hitler used to suppress and destroy populations,’” its decision read.

Trump wanted the full panel to determine if his case warranted a jury trial, and reconsider whether the CNN journalists’ language allowed him to sue.

CNN asked the court to toss out the case, saying the term “Big Lie” is “rhetorical hyperbole and does not refer to Hitler or Nazism.” Trump could not prove the network acted with “actual malice,” by publishing statements it knew were false, CNN argued.

“Actual malice is an extremely high evidentiary burden for any plaintiff to meet, much less the former President of the United States of America, and he has utterly failed to meet that burden here,” CNN’s response brief reads.

In July 2023, Florida District Judge Raag Singhal dismissed Trump’s suit with prejudice, meaning it cannot be brought again.

He ruled that there was “no question” that such statements met the standard for defamation under the law. But, he said, they were statements of opinion, and not fact—even though he found them to be “odious and repugnant.”

“CNN’s use of the phrase ’the Big Lie' in connection with Trump’s election challenges does not give rise to a plausible inference that Trump advocates the persecution and genocide of Jews or any other group of people,” Singhal wrote.

“No reasonable viewer could (or should) plausibly make that reference.”

Trump appealed that ruling, arguing the judge had failed “to consider the totality and context of the defamatory statements,” by “finding that CNN’s statements were pure opinion or rhetorical hyperbole.”

The CNN case is one of several defamation suits Trump has brought against news outlets. Last year, the president sued the Wall Street Journal for publishing a birthday card he allegedly sent to sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. That case is ongoing.

In 2024, Trump obtained a $15 million settlement against ABC and its anchor George Stephanopoulos, who claimed on air that Trump was “found liable for rape.”

Last September, a judge threw out a $15 billion suit against the New York Times and some of its reporters on the grounds that Trump’s legal brief broke court rules: It was unnecessarily lengthy and contained improper language, the judge ruled.

Trump refiled that suit in October.

The president has also teed up a suit against the BBC, after reports it had altered a video of him speaking to supporters at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, to make it appear as if he was promoting violence. The BBC on March 16 asked the court to dismiss the suit.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 09:25

The post The “Fraud” Fraud appeared first on CEPR.

Data Centers Look To Liquid Cooling As AI Future Heats Up

Authored by Bruce Parker via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The boom in artificial intelligence (AI) technology and hyperscale facilities has created a growth opportunity for businesses that keep cloud- and AI-related computer servers from overheating.

A worker walks among racks and network switches at the LightEdge Solutions data center in Altoona, Iowa, on Oct. 15, 2019. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Cooling is essential for electronics. Without it, today’s high-performance computer chips would literally melt down.

Navid Kazem is an electronics cooling expert and general chair of Semi-Therm, a leading global conference on thermal solutions for electronic components. He told The Epoch Times that data centers cannot function without proper cooling.

“You can burn down the chip pretty easily if you don’t have an effective cooling solution,” he said.

“What happens is the temperature of the chip rises to such high levels that you can effectively burn the chip.”

According to Kazem, silicon processors operate reliably at junction temperatures of 194–212 degrees Fahrenheit (90–100 degrees Celsius). If they rise much higher than 248 degrees Fahrenheit (120 degrees Celsius), they burn.

“The question comes down to, how can we cool them and keep them in that temperature range while spending as little energy as possible as we can,” he said. “So, there is a big push toward being able to use warm liquid for liquid cooling to cool this down.”

Switching From Air to Liquid

Data centers currently support rack power requirements of about 20 kilowatts. Since the latest central processing units and graphics processing units have higher thermal density than previous generations, that requirement is projected to exceed 50 kilowatts in the future.

A technician works at an Amazon Web Services artificial intelligence data center in New Carlisle, Ind., on Oct. 2, 2025. Noah Berger for AWS/Reuters

But as high-performance AI computing becomes increasingly heat-intensive and energy-intensive, conventional air cooling—the traditional approach to heat management—cannot keep up.

“When you go from air cooling to liquid cooling, you can save between 20 [percent] and 30 percent of the energy for the whole data center,” Kazem said.

“The most important thing is the amount of energy they are required to use. So if you can reduce the energy required for cooling, that means that you can have a more sustainable data center.”

Not only are air-cooling systems less effective at dissipating heat, but they also require more energy—sometimes more electricity than the servers themselves.

And since water is up to 3,000 times more effective at heat transfer than air and uses less electricity, data center operators are exploring ways to switch to liquid.

Liquid Cooling Options

Operators have three liquid-cooling options for managing heat: rear-door heat exchangers, direct-to-chip liquid cooling, and immersion cooling.

The first involves replacing the rear door of the IT equipment rack with a liquid heat exchanger. This option is used in tandem with air cooling.

With direct-to-chip liquid cooling, cold plates are placed on the board’s heat-generating components to draw heat away with single-phase cold plates or two-phase evaporation units. This technology removes up to 75 percent of the heat produced within the racks, while the remaining heat is whisked away by air.

In immersion cooling, servers and other components in the rack are submerged in a thermally conductive dielectric fluid. This system eliminates the need for air cooling and is the most energy-efficient of the three.

Which Is More Common: Air or Liquid?

According to recent market data, most existing data centers are currently air cooled, but liquid cooling is on the rise.

A survey conducted by S&P Global Market Intelligence of data center operators found that 45 percent use a fully air-cooled system, while 42 percent use a hybrid air-and-liquid-cooled system. Just 12 percent use liquid cooling only.

However, when asked about their plans for the next five years, 59 percent of respondents said their organization expects to adopt liquid cooling.

Of the three liquid-cooling options, 45 percent of respondents preferred liquid-to-air direct-to-chip, while 41 percent preferred liquid-to-liquid direct-to-chip.

An additional 41 percent said they would opt for the rear-door heat exchanger and 37 percent said they prefer a fully submerged cooling system.

Market Trends

Overall, the liquid cooling market is projected to grow from $6.6 billion in 2026 to $38.4 billion in 2033, according to a report put out last month by market research firm Market Minds Advisory.

Top players in the space, the report states, include Schneider Electric, Vertiv, Johnson Controls, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Green Revolution Cooling, Submer, LiquidStack, and Asetek Inc.

The trend was evident at last week’s 42nd annual Semi-Therm conference, a four-day symposium held in San Jose, California. The conference featured thermal engineers, researchers, and scientists for all-day sessions and short courses, and it attracted about 400 attendees, including engineers and planners from the hyperscale data center industry.

“Data centers and liquid cooling is one of the hot topics right now,” Laura Dobbs, marketing and exhibits manager for Semi-Therm, told The Epoch Times.

“For example, we have a track on liquid cooling, and we have a track on high-performance computer thermal interface management. ... As data centers have continued to grow, liquid cooling has become a very important piece of that, versus air cooling.”

According to Kazem, design teams from the hyperscalers and data center companies attend Semi-Therm “to learn about the latest technologies.”

“It’s mostly about the energy consumption, and how much of cooling we can do for these data centers that are having very high, high-powered densities,” he said.

“So, that has become a major issue, and the conference this year is reflecting that challenge and opportunities ahead.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 09:05

Iran Intel Chief Killed As Israel Grants IDF 'Free Hand' To Eliminate Leaders; Trump Muses Tehran Could Be 'Finished Off' Summary:

•  Israel says Iran's intelligence chief Esmail Khatib was eliminated overnight as pace of top leadership killings accelerates.

• Israeli attack on Iran's major South Pars gas field could trigger retaliation on Saudi oil fields.

• President Trump issues posts musing whether US should 'finish off' Iran, though Tehran signals continuity & stability of govt.

• Iran FM says no change in nuclear posture: vows Tehran not pursuing an atomic bomb.

*  *  *

Iran Intel Chief Killed In 3rd High-Level Hit

More decimation of Iranian top leadership, as Israel's defense minister Israel Katz has announced Iran's intelligence chief Esmail Khatib was eliminated in an overnight strike, which marks yet another alleged high-level hit as the tempo of targeted killings accelerates. "On this day, significant surprises are expected across all arenas that will escalate the war we are conducting against Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon," Katz warned in a military briefing, according to Israeli media.

If confirmed, the reported hit would mark the third top-tier Iranian figure eliminated in just 48 hours, following Israeli strikes that reportedly killed national security chief Ali Larijani, who was likely effectively running the war, and Basij commander Gholamreza Soleimani.

Iran's intelligence chief Esmail Khatib Trump Posts: Finish Them

President Donald Trump posts Wednesday: I wonder what would happen if we “finished off” what’s left of the Iranian Terror State, and let the Countries that use it, we don’t, be responsible for the so called “Straight?” That would get some of our non-responsive “Allies” in gear, and fast! 

Trump also said in a rapid follow-up that "We are rapidly putting them out of business!"

Still, Iran is signaling continuity, not collapse, even as newspapers in America run celebratory headlines such as "Israel Is Hunting Down Iranian Regime Members in Their Hideouts, One by One." Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi pushed back on the narrative of systemic breakdown, insisting the Islamic Republic "does not rely on a single individual."

Meanwhile, unconfirmed chatter suggests parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf may have narrowly survived an assassination attempt in northern Tehran. There are indicators that he too may be running the day-to-day of the government and of the wartime response; however, it's also clear the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is firmly in control of the country.

Israel Gives Military Freedom Of Elimination Strikes

As a reminder of analysis we featured earlier in the conflict, "Endurance regimes do not need clean victory to change the game. They only need to survive the shock while making the old equilibrium too costly for their adversaries to restore." Journalist Jeremy Scahill, who starting over two decades ago covered the lead-up to the Iraq war from on the ground in Baghdad, has reiterated that "In asymmetric warfare, the less powerful side does not need to militarily defeat an adversary, but rather force it to a point where it determines the costs of continuing the war is too high."

The US-Israeli operation is seeking to so utterly smash the country and its leadership, and potentially bring people out to the streets to topple the government, so as to avid reaching this dilemma. Israel is said to be working with spies and spotters on the ground, which Basij forces have sought to expose and arrest.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on the killing of Ali Larijani:

I do not know why the Americans and the Israelis still have not understood this point.

The Islamic Republic of Iran has a strong political structure with established political, economic, and social… pic.twitter.com/v6cgyjaoU3

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 18, 2026

But just as Iran is clearly trying to adapt, by reportedly allowing autonomy of command among military units in the instance of being cut off from top leadership, so is Israeli too adapting its strategy and tactics. Katz has confirmed that he and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have granted the military standing authorization to eliminate additional senior Iranian officials, with no case-by-case approval required. Or in other words, the Israeli decapitation efforts are now on autopilot, signaling greater escalation.

More Patriots in Turkey After Third Iran Missile Flyover

Escalation isn't just contained to the US-led Operation Epic Fury inside Iran. In Turkey, NATO is reinforcing its posture, deploying another US Patriot battery to Adana alongside existing systems - soon on the heels of the alliance reportedly having intercepted a third Iranian ballistic missile that briefly entered Turkish airspace this week.

Meanwhile, Iran's own retaliatory footprint is widening, as it vows "revenge" for the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top leaders. A strike near the Al Minhad base in the UAE, which hosts Australian troops, sparked a fire that damaged facilities, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has confirmed while saying that thankfully though no personnel were injured.

Dubai, long marketed as the region's stable and quiet "safe haven" - continues to witness nightly sounds of air defense fire. The UAE confirmed its systems intercepted a barrage of threats, with fighter jets also scrambling in response to the threat overnight. 

Tehran Signals No Change in Nuclear Posture

Tehran, for its part, is surprisingly signaling that it has no intention of developing a nuclear weapon. It's hard to evaluate any such official stance in the middle of a war for survival, but FM Araghchi on Wednesday reiterated that Iran's nuclear posture "won’t significantly change" - even as military leaders warn of a "decisive and regrettable" response to Israeli strikes. 

Tehran holds funeral ceremony for security chief Ali Larijani and Basij chief Gholamreza Soleimani. pic.twitter.com/4sjTyzzJgj

— Ihtisham Ul Haq (@iihtishamm) March 18, 2026

Nuclear sites have come under direct threat during the war, with Tuesday a projectile reportedly having near Iran’s Bushehr nuclear facility, though local officials say no damage occurred.

In Washington, there's some clear doubling down militarily on the part of the Trump administration, while the question of finding an offramp is still likely being hotly debated within White House and national security circles. On the political front, the closer the US gets to Memorial Day travel with gas prices climbing higher, the more politically costly it is likely to be for Republicans.

South Pars Gas Field, Hormuz, Israel

The International Maritime Organization is scrambling to convene an emergency session on establishing a "safe maritime corridor" as ships and crews remain essentially trapped in the Persian Gulf. Crucially, Bloomberg is reporting that the attack on South Pars gas field appears to be from Israel and that Iran has vowed it would retaliated against regional energy infrastructure if attacked in such a way. Oil facilities have also reportedly been struck.

Axios' Barak Ravid has cited a senior Israeli official to report Wednesday: "The Israeli Air Force struck the largest natural gas processing facility in Iran, located in the southwest of the country. The strike was carried out in coordination with and with the approval of the U.S."

⚡️Earlier this morning, Israeli warplanes demolished a building in Al-Bashoura in Beirut pic.twitter.com/Y7zhlZNTho

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 18, 2026

Iranian missiles killed civilians overnight near Tel Aviv, and Israeli rail lines were disrupted along with a pause in many civic and public services, as people seek shelters. "An elderly couple, identified as Yaron and Ilana Moshe, were killed early Wednesday morning in Ramat Gan by a cluster missile as Iran continued to fire salvoes at Israel through the night and into the morning," Times of Israel reports. "From midnight to 8 a.m., there were four rounds of missile fire that caused injuries and damage to property."

⚡️Holon, Tel Aviv pic.twitter.com/HSkN9PigTA

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 18, 2026

Lebanon and Beirut are once again under fire as Israel expands strikes against Hezbollah positions in the southern part of Lebanese capital - with whole central buildings on fire and in some instances collapsing. A ground war has also been once again opening in southern Lebanon.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/18/2026 - 08:45