Individual Economists

10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture -

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish Blend coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads:

Prisoners of Fortune: When your money owns you. What is the point of being rich? Most people’s answers would be some version of: To be able to do what you want. Money, at its essence, is a thing that gives you the ability to enact your will upon the world. It liberates you from life’s constraints. The more money you have, the more free you should be. So it is odd to observe the ways that this is plainly not true… (How Things Work)

Rules Matter More Than Insight: How Discipline Beats Brilliance: A Rulebook Organized by Failure Severity for Long-Term Survival. (The Financial Pen)

Dan Wang 2025 letter: One way that Silicon Valley and the Communist Party resemble each other is that both are serious, self-serious, and indeed, completely humorless. Which of the tech titans are funny? Sam Altman at a tech conference said: “I think that AI will probably, most likely, sort of lead to the end of the world. But in the meantime, there will be great companies created with serious machine learning.” Actually, that was pretty funny. (Dan Wang)

Study: 5 People Dominate Retirement Advice on TikTok (Ugh): A new research report examines nearly 30,000 social media posts about retirement savings and investing. The authors find “traditional news outlets” contributed just 23% of retirement-related content. Investors can be intimidated by the prospect of seeking professional advice, and the industry needs to do better at meeting them where they are, a marketing expert says. (ThinkAdvisor)

Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Big Breakup: The congresswoman split with the President over the Epstein files, then she quit. Where will she go from here? (New Yorker)

Darwin the Witness In His Own Words: Darwin immortalized a fast-transforming world—customs, political situations, and ways of life that were both new and just about to vanish into mostly-unwritten history. (Aether Mug)

What I Saw When I Peeked Over the Edge of Consciousness. You could tell who were survivors not just by their calm demeanor when describing the most traumatic day of their lives or because they danced with a notably blissed-out confidence. They also had bright green ribbons affixed to their conference badges that read, “Experiencer.” (New York Times)

90 Minutes to Give Baby Luna a New Heart: After eight years of training, Dr. Maureen McKiernan made her debut as the lead surgeon on an infant heart transplant — an operation on the edge of what’s possible. (New York Times)

How Marco Rubio Went from “Little Marco” to Trump’s Foreign-Policy Enabler: As Secretary of State, the President’s onetime foe now offers him lavish displays of public praise—and will execute his agenda in Venezuela and around the globe. (New Yorker)

Why This $170,000 F.P. Journe Is the Watch of the Century: Chronomètre à Résonance is an exquisite timepiece that stacks up there with the best conceptual art. (Bloomberg)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Nobel laureate Richard Thaler and his University of Chicago Booth School colleague Alex Imas on the update and reissue of his classic book The Winner’s Curse.

 

Six Banks Seen Reaping $157 Billion

Source: Bloomberg

 

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The post 10 Weekend Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Rashida Tlaib Melts Down Over America 

Zero Hedge -

Rashida Tlaib Melts Down Over America 

Democratic Socialist Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI) was triggered this week by a Homeland Security post on X featuring a B-2 stealth bomber overhead and a cowboy below, accompanied by the text in the center of the image that read: "We'll Have Our Home Again."

"What does it evoke in you when you see this? Literally, when I see it, as a Muslim, as a Palestinian, as a child of immigrants, I see it as something that evokes the feeling that I'm not welcome here," Tlaib said.

Listen for yourself. Tlaib appears to be triggered, but more or less it comes across as a performative show, as X user Saggezza Eterna noted:

Tlaib performs this grief to manipulate the emotional weaklings in her base. She mourns because the restoration of our borders signifies the end of her power to dilute our sovereignty. The Department of Homeland Security finally serves the homeland. Her tears confirm the effectiveness of the policy. We watch a subversive realizing the host nation has activated its immune system against the infection she champions. Let her weep while we ruthlessly secure the perimeter.

Tlaib's reaction is very revealing. She called herself "a Muslim, a Palestinian, a child of immigrants" and doesn't even bother to call herself an American.

Remember it's all theatrics... 

Meanwhile, Democrats were given the memo from party higher-ups in recent weeks to pivot away from pro-Islam and anti-Jewish rhetoric, likely because that messaging does not resonate with the majority of Americans.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/16/2026 - 19:40

US Foreclosures Up 14% In 2025; Florida Tops States

Zero Hedge -

US Foreclosures Up 14% In 2025; Florida Tops States

Authored by  Mary Prenon via The Epoch Times,

Home foreclosures across America were on the rise in 2025, increasing by 14 percent from 2024, with Florida experiencing the highest numbers in the nation.

In its Jan. 15 report, property data and analytics provider ATTOM, said that 367,460 U.S. properties were involved with default notices, scheduled auctions, or bank repossessions last year.

Those properties represented 0.26 percent of all housing units, a slight uptick from 0.23 percent in 2024, but down from 0.36 percent in 2019.

While the amount of the annual foreclosures were also down by 25 percent from 2019, the fourth quarter alone saw a total of 111,692 properties with foreclosure filings—up by 10 percent from the previous quarter and 32 percent from the fourth quarter of 2024.

Nationwide, one in 1,274 properties was involved in a foreclosure filing in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Florida led in foreclosure filings last year (1 in 230 housing units), followed by Delaware (1 in 240), South Carolina (1 in 242), and Illinois and Nevada (1 in 284).

“Foreclosure activity increased in 2025, reflecting a continued normalization of the housing market following several years of historically low levels,” ATTOM CEO Rob Barber said in the report.

“While filings, starts, and repossessions all rose compared to 2024, foreclosure activity remains well below pre-pandemic norms and a fraction of what we saw during the last housing crisis.”

Barber added that the data indicates the recent surge in foreclosures is being driven more by “market recalibration” than homeowner distress.

Rounding out the top 10 states with the highest foreclosure rates in 2025 were New Jersey (1 in 273 units), Indiana (1 in 302), Ohio (1 in 307), Texas (1 in 319), and Maryland (1 in 326).

In December 2025 alone, 1 in 3,163 properties nationwide had a foreclosure filing, with New Jersey leading the pack for the highest foreclosure rates.

In total, 28,268 properties began the foreclosure process in the month—a 19 percent hike from the previous month and 47 percent higher than December 2024.

Among metro areas with a population above 1 million, Cleveland fared the worst in terms of 2025 foreclosures, followed by Jacksonville, Las Vegas, Chicago, and Orlando. Lakeland, Florida, took the lead for the most foreclosures in metro areas with populations of at least 200,000. Joining Lakeland were Columbia, South Carolina; Cleveland; Cape Coral, Florida; and Atlantic City, New Jersey.

The report shows that foreclosure starts also increased during 2025 in all regions of the country. In total, lenders started the foreclosure process on 289,441 properties, up by 14 percent from 2024. Texas led with 37,215 starts, followed by Florida (34,336), California (29,777), Illinois (15,010), and New York (13,664).

Described as the official beginning of the legal process in which a lender attempts to recover and sell a property due to non-payment, a foreclosure normally begins after 120 days of missed payments.

According to Rocket Mortgage, the process can vary from state to state.

In those metro areas with populations over 1 million, New York City placed first with the most foreclosure starts at 14,189 last year. Chicago recorded 13,312 starts, Houston, 13,009, Miami, 8,936, and Los Angeles, 8,503.

In terms of bank repossessions last year, lenders took over 46,439 properties, representing a 27 percent hike from 2024. Texas, California, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Illinois saw the largest numbers of repossessions during 2025.

The ATTOM report indicates that properties foreclosed during the fourth quarter of 2025 had been in the foreclosure process an average of 592 days, a 3 percent decrease from the previous quarter and a 22 percent decrease from December 2024.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/16/2026 - 19:15

Biden-Appointed Federal Judge Blocks Trump Admin's Move To Withhold Minnesota Food Stamp Funds

Zero Hedge -

Biden-Appointed Federal Judge Blocks Trump Admin's Move To Withhold Minnesota Food Stamp Funds

A federal judge on Jan. 14 stopped the Trump administration from withholding $80 million in administrative costs for Minnesota’s Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), ruling that the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s tight deadline for reviewing the eligibility of 100,000 households was likely illegal.

U.S. District Judge Laura Provinzino, appointed by President Biden in 2024, said during a hearing in Saint Paul that the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) failed to justify why Minnesota needed to complete the review of recipient eligibility by Jan. 15, or face losing half its administrative costs. She noted the agency ignored laws limiting such reviews to once per year.

“USDA is asking the state to violate federal law, regulations, and the state’s own operational plan,” which had previously been approved by the agency, said Provinzino.

As Kimberley Hayek explains below via The Epoch Times, the injunction prevents the USDA from cutting the funds, including $20 million for the first quarter that was set to be withheld on Jan. 14, until the lawsuit is resolved.

The case focuses on administrative costs, not direct benefits to recipients.

Minnesota officials argued the USDA’s actions stem from political animosity by President Donald Trump toward the state and Gov. Tim Walz.

“This is part of an ongoing effort by the federal government to pummel our state,” Joseph Richie of the Minnesota Attorney General’s office said during the hearing.

Brian Mizoguchi of the U.S. Department of Justice argued that Minnesota’s issues with other federal programs justified the move, and the state could cover costs itself.

The move ties into broader allegations of fraud in Minnesota’s social programs. The USDA cited a scandal involving theft of federal welfare funds as a reason for the review.

The Trump administration has intensified scrutiny of SNAP nationwide, with around 118 arrests for fraud in one operation, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins told Fox News in Nocember 2025.

Rollins has highlighted “massive fraud,” including thousands of dead people receiving benefits and duplicate payments.

She said in a Nov. 2, 2025, post on X that 21 states refused to send data for review to the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

The request was sent to all 50 states shortly after the Trump administration took over in January of that year, she said, and within the 29 states that cooperated, “massive fraud” was found in the form of thousands of cases of illegal immigrants and deceased individuals receiving benefits.

As a result of that audit alone, approximately 700,000 individuals have been removed from SNAP benefits, and more than 100 arrests have been made in connection with fraudulent SNAP benefits. 

Minnesota is among 21 states that have failed to share SNAP data.

SNAP serves Americans below 130 percent of the poverty line with maximum benefits of $298 monthly for one person and $546 for two. States handle daily operations.

Similar court actions have occurred, such as a California ruling blocking USDA access to SNAP data.

The USDA did not respond to a request for comment by publication time.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/16/2026 - 18:50

To Combat Academic Fraud, Scholars Confront Hallowed Tradition

Zero Hedge -

To Combat Academic Fraud, Scholars Confront Hallowed Tradition

Authored by Vince Bielski via RealClearInvestigations,

This is the fourth part of a series on the crisis in academic research and publishing. Read the first three parts here, here and here.

The driving ethos of academia, “publish or perish,” is fighting for its life. 

The requirement that scholars constantly publish or face academic ruin has been considered the primary engine of scientific discovery for decades. But a growing movement of universities and researchers is trying to banish the practice to the archives, saying it has perverted the pursuit of knowledge and eroded the public’s trust in science.

Reformers at top universities in Europe and the U.S., including Cambridge, Sorbonne, and UC Berkeley, say this traditional system of advancement has led to an explosion in the growth of low-quality research, with little meaningful impact on academic fields or society. It has also sparked the spread of fraudulent research, as “paper mills” churn out fake articles for sale to academics seeking to pad their CVs. 

To weaken the “publish or perish” stranglehold on universities, hundreds of research institutions are reforming the incentive system that shapes academic careers. It currently rewards scholars for frequently winning grants and publishing papers, with extra points for landing in the most esteemed, high-impact journals, even when the articles are not themselves influential. 

The new incentives vary at different universities and research centers, but tend to focus on the actual quality of the research rather than the quantity or the prestige of the journals. The research’s influence on academic fields and, when appropriate, on society and public policy, is also often rewarded. So is a commitment to share papers and data as widely and freely as possible with the public. The goal is to break science out of its self-serving and insular bubble and better connect the enterprise with the public that funds it. 

The incentives dictate how people behave, and we have a long tradition of rewarding publications in high impact journals,” said Ginny Barbour, a Cambridge-trained physician, medical journal editor, and co-chair of the Declaration on Research Assessment, or DORA. “If we don’t get research assessment right, then the whole foundation of academic life is undermined.”

The growing movement to revamp the rewards that set the direction of science is spearheaded in the United States by DORA, which is also the name of its declaration of principles. The declaration has gathered 3,500 signatures of support from organizations, and 23,000 from individuals, since its founding in 2012 at a cell biology conference in San Francisco.

In Europe, the Coalition for Advancing Research Assessment (CoARA) operates much like DORA. Some 700 organizations and 450 higher education institutions  – and 27% of all Ph.D. awarding universities in Europe – have committed to its principles since 2022, according to a study co-authored by Alex Rushforth at Leiden University in the Netherlands.

“In Europe we have made a lot of progress in a short period of time. CoARA has been a very impressive catalyst,” said Rushforth. “Of course, signing CoARA is one thing and implementing culture change is quite another thing.”

Overturning an Entrenched Culture

Despite these significant inroads, reformers of the deeply embedded “publish or perish” culture face a huge challenge. High-ranking university officials, from presidents on down who would have to approve a new reward system, have greatly benefited from the current one. “This system worked for me so why wouldn’t it work for anyone else?” said Professor Mike Dougherty, explaining the thinking of those who questioned the assessment reforms he eventually won at the University of Maryland. 

Defenders of the status quo, which is intended to bring out the best in scientists, can also point to notable progress as recently as the last decade, especially the dazzling breakthroughs in healthcare. A system that pushes researchers to aim high can get impressive results.

The iconic journal Nature is among the most influential drivers of this culture. The Nature family of journals is near the top of the publishing pyramid largely because of their “Journal Impact Factor,” or JIF, scores. JIF is a beauty contest based on the number of citations the articles in the journal receive. The more citations, the higher the JIF, and the greater the journal’s esteem. Publishing in journals with high JIF scores can make a career.

The Nature family is highly selective, attracting more than 50,000 scholarly submissions a year and publishing less than 10% of them. Nature’s tendency to report on major advances in many fields, famously illustrated by the Watson and Crick paper on DNA structure, has helped give the 157-year-old journal its magisterial reputation.

But the fact that prestigious journals publish important articles doesn’t mean everything they run is noteworthy. Studies show that a journal’s impact factor is often determined by a small number of influential articles that receive a lot of citations, reflecting glory on many less influential papers that are not cited much. In other words, many marginal papers make the cut. It’s as if Aaron Judge’s Yankees teammates got credit for his home runs. 

JIF is also easy to manipulate: Authors are sometimes encouraged to include citations to articles in the same journal that they are publishing in to raise the JIF score.  Even the publisher of Nature warns research institutions not to place too much emphasis on its own JIF, and DORA says the metric should be completely ignored.

As he was trying to convince his faculty in Maryland’s psychology department to support reforms that would sideline JIF, Dougherty examined 45,000 papers in a couple of hundred journals to determine if the journal metric and citation counts were indicators of research quality, based on factors like statistical errors and the strength of evidence. “What we found is that there is no evidence to support the claim that higher-impact journals publish higher quality research,” Dougherty said.

The need to be published in prestigious journals leads some scholars to shape their research to fit what they believe will be accepted. That means researchers take fewer experimental risks, jump on popular trends, and shelve negative findings that are very important to report, creating what DORA’s Barbour calls a “gap in the literature.” 

The quest for glamour publications also delays by years the dissemination of knowledge and the possibility of breakthroughs, said Professor Steve Russell, who led the implementation of assessment reforms at Cambridge. “Young researchers in particular start at the highest impact factor journal, go through peer-review, get rejected, and then work their way down to the next highest impact factor, and on and on,” said Russell, who has bylines in both Nature and Science. “It’s a complete and utter waste of time.”

When researchers can’t clear this high bar, the fallback option is to maximize the quantity of papers to list on their CVs. This is enabled by what Dougherty calls “salami slicing” the data. Rather than producing the most substantial paper possible, scholars divide their experimental data into several small slices, allowing them to generate more papers that contribute little to science but add to the flood of publications that’s making quality control and fraud detection through the peer-review process almost impossible. 

The publication of fraudulent articles full of fake data is growing at a faster rate than legitimate papers, according to a 2025 study, threatening the legitimacy of the scientific enterprise. “We know that the incentives for people to publish in high impact journals skews behavior,” said Barbour. “And at its worst, it skews behavior towards the fabrication and falsification of research, and that’s highly problematic.”

U.K. Funders Push Reform

Most universities in the U.K., which gave birth to the first academic journal in 1665, have embraced research reform, either in word or deed, along with many in the Netherlands, Norway, and Finland. Pressure from funders looking for more research with greater societal impact is one reason why. 

UK Research and Innovation, the largest government funder of research and a signatory to DORA in 2019, runs a program that annually assesses universities’ research contributions to academic disciplines and society. It then divides £2 billion in grants based on those scores. The Wellcome Trust, which is the other major source of grants, restricts them to researchers at institutions that have reformed assessment practices, aiming to produce a bigger impact on people’s health and well-being from the billions of pounds it provides. 

Funding pressure was initially the driving factor. When the people giving money say this is what we expect, change happens very quickly,” said Cambridge’s Russell. “But there was also a group of academics who were very vocal that we needed to change the way that we assess researchers.”

At Imperial College London, a tragedy added to the impetus for reform. In 2014, Professor Stefan Grimm took his own life as he was struggling to win grants and publish papers needed to succeed in the faculty of medicine. It went as far as to list the high-impact journals that mattered most. 

“People were shocked but not necessarily surprised,” said Stephen Curry, an emeritus professor of biology at Imperial who helped push through reforms. 

The suicide catalyzed a review of assessment practices that, with the strong support of the vice provost of research, led Imperial to sign DORA in 2017 over the opposition of some engineering faculty. The changes discourage the consideration of metrics like JIF in hiring and promotion while placing greater emphasis on the quality of teaching and the impact of research. 

Curry said mandates from the top don’t quickly erase ingrained habits. But in 2023, Curry sat in on dozens of recruitment and promotion interviews in different faculty groups and was impressed with what he observed. 

“There has been a shift away from dwelling overmuch on numbers and journal impact factors,” he said. “These things haven’t gone away and people certainly still feel that heat of competition, but I think it is more evident now that the quality of one’s work, as well as one’s wider contributions to the university and to society, are more important than they were.”

U.S. Universities Slower to Change

While the U.K. is a success story for reformers, they have yet to deeply penetrate the biggest research system of all – the U.S. – where only a handful of major research institutions have joined the movement. Unlike in Europe, U.S. universities don’t face federal funding pressure from above to transform how they reward scientists. Under the Trump administration, federal agencies are mainly focused on ending what they deem, sometimes wrongly, as DEI-related research, and reducing overhead fees that add up to 70% to the cost of research grants.

Reformers in the U.S. also face resistance from below. University faculty wield much more power over academic affairs than their peers in Europe, where administrators are more likely to make the rules. Some U.S. scholars don’t see the case for abandoning long-standing reputational metrics, according to a survey by Leiden’s Rushforth. Even if JIF and the number of citations a paper receives aren’t perfect proxies for quality, survey respondents said, they offer a practical way for busy academics on hiring committees to efficiently evaluate a long list of candidates. 

Maryland’s Dougherty says university departments are also wary of being on the cutting edge of reform in case it doesn’t work out. “A lot of the resistance comes back to people saying ‘We won’t do it until other universities do it, or until other people within our discipline are doing it,’” he said.

Even academics like Mark Hanson, who is critical of the “publish or perish” culture and has published papers about the misconduct it breeds, see some downsides to assessment reform. The University of Exeter professor’s fundamental research has overturned assumptions about genes and disease resistance, opening the door to rethinking therapeutic designs. Hanson is concerned that the reform movement’s emphasis on research that’s tied to practical problems will further diminish fundamental research that generates the new ideas that science needs to advance.

“With increasing pushes to fund only directly-applicable or policy-impacting research, we’re stuck in our current state of knowledge and we just iterate and explore its crevices endlessly,” said Hanson.

Reform in the U.S. has been mostly left to lone scientists with a passion for the cause. After Sandra Schmid enacted assessment changes to focus on research quality rather than metrics like JIF at the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, she became chief scientific officer in 2020 at Biohub, founded by Mark Zuckerberg and his wife, Priscilla Chan. One year later, Biohub, which creates AI tools for biological research, signed DORA. 

Another research group, the Howard Hughes Medical Institute, signed DORA in 2013. In its competitions among researchers for employment and grants, and in evaluations for continued support, journal names are removed from applications, turning the focus on the quality of scholarship, not whether it was published in a prestigious journal.

Nonprofits like the Pew Charitable Trusts are also joining the movement. Pew is working with a group of philanthropic and public funders who want their grants to produce a bigger impact in healthcare, education, and other areas. To engage researchers in the effort, Pew has convened a group of 18 university leaders, including those at Brown, Duke, and UC Berkeley, who are redesigning their reward systems to encourage the public interest research that the funders seek. 

At Maryland, Dougherty almost single-handedly championed the reforms. It took five years of meetings, his aforementioned study, and two rounds of assessment guideline revisions before Dougherty finally won the unanimous approval of his 27 faculty members. The new assessment practices, implemented in 2022, focus on measures of quality, such as the reproducibility of research, making papers and data widely accessible, and their impact on academic fields and, when applicable, on public policy. 

Dougherty says so far, so good. Some faculty are more motivated to pursue important questions and take risks they would have avoided earlier because high-impact journals may not be interested in their work.

But is the overall quality of research improving in departments that have established new incentives? It’s the ultimate goal. But so far, no one has tried to answer this important question of whether the hard work of changing the culture of academia is producing better research, leaving a gap in understanding that needs to be filled, said Leiden’s Rushforth. 

“We should be collecting data and testing our hypotheses and not taking for granted that if you change the incentives, you get a different type of academic research,” Rushforth said. “There should be some sort of accountability.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/16/2026 - 18:25

New York Scammers Plead Guilty In $68M Adult Day Care Fraud Scheme

Zero Hedge -

New York Scammers Plead Guilty In $68M Adult Day Care Fraud Scheme

Two scammers in Brooklyn pleaded guilty on Thursday to defrauding the state's controversial Medicaid home care program to the tune of $60 million. 

Google Maps

Manal Wasef and Elaine Antao, both 46, pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit health care fraud. Their scheme involved referring Medicaid recipients to two Brooklyn social adult day care centers and a home health company in exchange for illegal kickbacks and bribes, the DOJ announced on Thursday. 

Between approximately October 2017 and July 2024, in exchange for illegal kickbacks and bribes, Wasef and Antao referred Medicaid recipients to the social adult day cares and the home health company. The defendants also paid illegal kickbacks and bribes to Medicaid recipients for social adult day care services and home health care services that were billed to Medicaid but were not provided or that were induced by kickbacks and bribes. Wasef and Antao used multiple business entities to launder the fraud proceeds and generate the cash used to pay kickbacks and bribes. In connection with their guilty pleas, Wasef and Antao agreed to collectively forfeit approximately $1 million. Wasef and Antao are the sixth and seventh individuals, respectively, to plead guilty in this case. -DOJ

The pair were tapping into the Consumer Directed Personal Assistance Program (CDPAP), which allows people with minimal health care experience to care for their elderly disabled relatives and friends. According to the NY Posthundreds of 'middleman' firms work as de-facto payroll agents between the caregivers and Medicaid - all with minimal oversight.

On top of their guilty plea, the pair agreed to pay back around $1 million.

Google Maps

"Today’s guilty pleas demonstrate the Department’s longstanding commitment to rooting out fraud in government health care programs by aggressively prosecuting those who steal from taxpayer-funded programs," said Assistant Attorney General A. Tysen Duva of the Justice Department’s Criminal Division.

The pair are scheduled to be sentenced in May, where they each face a maximum penalty of 10 years in prison. 

Overall, eight people were initially accused of participating in the yearslong scheme to defraud the state. Also charged were owners Zakia Khan and Ahsan Ijaz, as well as Oasmneah Hamdi, Ansir Abassi, and Amran Hashmi. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/16/2026 - 18:00

Clinton-Appointed Federal Judge Denies DOJ Bid To Access California Voter Registration Rolls

Zero Hedge -

Clinton-Appointed Federal Judge Denies DOJ Bid To Access California Voter Registration Rolls

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge on Jan. 15 dismissed the Department of Justice’s (DOJ’s) bid to access California’s voter registration databases, ruling that the demand for voter data from California Secretary of State Shirley Weber was “unprecedented and illegal.”

In a 33-page decision, Clinton-appointed U.S. District Judge David O. Carter sided with California, saying the DOJ cannot use civil rights legislation “as a tool to forsake the privacy rights of millions of Americans,” noting that such authority rests solely with Congress.

The DOJ filed lawsuits in September against six states, including California, alleging they violated federal law by refusing to provide voting records the department said were necessary to prevent inclusion of ineligible voters. The lawsuits were filed separately in each state.

“The Department of Justice seeks to use civil rights legislation which was enacted for an entirely different purpose to amass and retain an unprecedented amount of confidential voter data,” Carter said.

“This effort goes far beyond what Congress intended when it passed the underlying legislation.”

The judge also said the federal government’s request could deter voters from registering due to concerns about how their personal information might be used, threatening the right to vote.

“The centralization of this information by the federal government would have a chilling effect on voter registration which would inevitably lead to decreasing voter turnout as voters fear that their information is being used for some inappropriate or unlawful purpose,” Carter said.

California Secretary of State Shirley Weber speaks in Los Angeles on April 15, 2024. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

Weber welcomed the ruling and said she would continue to challenge what she described as the administration’s “disregard for the rule of law and our right to vote.”

“As California Secretary of State, I am entrusted with ensuring that California’s state election laws are enforced—including state laws that protect the privacy of Californians’ data,” Weber said in a Jan. 15 statement.

The Epoch Times reached out to the DOJ for comment, but did not receive a response by publication time.

In its complaint against California on Sept. 25, 2025, the DOJ said the state refused to cooperate with the federal government’s request for voter registration databases—including each voter’s full name, date of birth, address, state driver’s license number, and the last four digits of their Social Security number—citing concerns over privacy protections.

The DOJ had argued that its Civil Rights Division has been tasked by Congress with ensuring that states conduct voter registration list maintenance to prevent ineligible voters from being listed.

“Clean voter rolls are the foundation of free and fair elections,” U.S. Attorney General Pamela Bondi said in a statement at the time.

“Every state has a responsibility to ensure that voter registration records are accurate, accessible, and secure—states that don’t fulfill that obligation will see this Department of Justice in court.”

Citing the lawsuits, the DOJ said at the time that Bondi is uniquely charged by Congress “with the enforcement of the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA) and the Help America Vote Act (HAVA), which were designed by Congress to ensure that states have proper and effective voter registration and voter list maintenance programs.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/16/2026 - 17:00

Trump 'Convinced' Himself Not To Attack Iran, After Tehran Allegedly Canceled 800 Executions

Zero Hedge -

Trump 'Convinced' Himself Not To Attack Iran, After Tehran Allegedly Canceled 800 Executions

Update(1658ET): President Trump issued another somewhat bizarre Iran statement on Truth Social on Friday. He repeated the White House line that 800 executions that were scheduled and supposed to take place yesterday were halted in Iran. He even 'thanked' the Iranians for not carry out the supposed mass execution plan:

"I greatly respect the fact that all scheduled hangings, which were to take place yesterday (Over 800 of them), have been cancelled by the leadership of Iran. Thank you!" he wrote earlier in the day.

He also told reporters "I convinced my myself" not to attack Iran, after painting himself in a corner by essentially setting red lines previously. Trump had said days ago if Iranian authorities kill protesters they would get hit hard by the US.

As for the "800 executions" - it's very unclear where this number came from. Certainly Iranian state media or officials haven't said any such thing, and there's a likelihood it's just propaganda. 

* * *

US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz told the UN Security Council on Thursday that the "brave people of Iran" have risen up and that President Donald Trump "has made it clear all options are on the table to stop the slaughter" - this despite widespread reports that the protests and rioting are over at this point.

"President Trump is a man of action, not endless talk like we see at the United Nations. He has made it clear all options are on the table to stop the slaughter," Waltz told the Security Council meeting, held at the request of Washington.

The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, via US Navy

"Everyone in the world needs to know that the regime is weaker than ever before, and therefore is putting forward this lie because of the power of the Iranian people in the streets. They are afraid. They're afraid of their own people," Waltz claimed, but he did not address the huge pro-government rallies which engulfed Iranian streets from earlier this week, which largely supplanted the protests and riots.

But a near total internet outage has endured going all the way back to January 8. This suggests the crisis may not be completely finished, but Tehran is touting that security services and police are back in control of the streets.

The US is still rushing military assets to the area. "The Pentagon is moving a carrier strike group from the South China Sea to the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, which includes the Middle East, as tensions escalate between the Trump administration and Iran," according to NewsNation.

"Moving the carrier strike group - a naval formation centering around an aircraft carrier, with a variety of other vessels, including at least one attack submarine - is expected to take about a week, a source said," the report continues. "The USS Abraham Lincoln reportedly is the aircraft carrier that is on the move."

Meanwhile, Russian ​President Vladimir Putin is putting himself forward as potential mediator, ⁠which was conveyed in a fresh phone conversation with Iran's President Masoud ​Pezeshkian. Pezeshkian thanked his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin for Moscow's support at the United Nations in the wake of the crisis.

A readout indicated Pezeshkian thanked Putin for "Russia's position" and explained that "the role and direct involvement of the United States and the Zionist regime in recent events in Iran is evident" - in reference to Israel.

Previously at the UN emergency session, Russia's UN Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia charged the United States with convening the Security Council in a bid to "justify blatant aggression and interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign state" and threats to "solve the Iranian problem in its favorite way: through strikes aimed at overthrowing an undesirable regime."

The swipe and reminder of Washington's addiction to regime change also comes on the heels of the Trump-ordered January 3rd overthrow of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Amb. Nebenzia said further: "We strongly urge the hot heads in Washington and other capitals… to come to their senses."

At the same time, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has urged "maximum restraint at this sensitive moment and calls on all actors to refrain from any actions that could lead to further loss of life or ignite a wider regional escalation."

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/16/2026 - 16:58

Qatar Hired UK PR Firm To Edit Wikipedia Page: Report

Zero Hedge -

Qatar Hired UK PR Firm To Edit Wikipedia Page: Report

Amid ongoing US probes into Wikipedia over alleged bias and foreign manipulation, sometimes framed as "Wikilaundering," a new report has found that a PR company linked to Keir Starmer's communications chief has been accused of secretly manipulating Wikipedia pages to improve or neutralize clients' public images. The allegations add another thorn in the side for Wikipedia as migration to Elon Musk's Grokpedia continues.

The Guardian cites an investigation by the Bureau of Investigative Journalism (TBIJ) alleging that PR firm Portland Communications, founded by Tim Allan, commissioned secret page edits of Wikipedia pages for clients to restore or improve their image.

A former Portland employee told TBIJ that Wikipedia edits were contracted out: "No one said, 'We should stop doing this.' The question was how we could keep doing it without getting caught."

TBIJ's investigation focused on a network of 26 accounts that made edits, including those linked to Web3 Consulting, a firm operated by Radek Kotlarek.

Some of the high-profile clients allegedly included the Qatar government. The edits reportedly involved shifting unfavorable details into philanthropy sections or replacing critical sources with more positive ones, particularly ahead of the 2022 World Cup.

The Guardian noted that while Portland was founded by Allan, a former adviser to Tony Blair, in 2001, there is no indication that Allan personally made any of the edits. He sold most of his shares in 2012 and left the firm in 2019.

A spokesperson for Portland said, "Portland does not have a relationship with the firm mentioned and has a policy of strict adherence to the guidelines on all social media platforms." A Portland employee added, "If anyone who worked here in the past did this, they were foolish. For sure nobody does it today."

Portland denies any relationship with the contractor and says it adheres to platform rules. Former employees told TBIJ that Wikipedia edits were a frequent client request.

The Guardian reported that the network of accounts was eventually blocked by volunteer Wikipedia editors.

This report comes as no surprise, given the systemically biased nature against conservative, religious, and other points of view, according to the site's co-founder, Larry Sanger.

Elon Musk determined late last year that Wikipedia wasn't salvageable and created Grokipedia to counter the misinformation and disinformation on Wikipedia...

The shift to Grokipedia is underway.

Related:

Wikipedia was a great idea that lost its way. Now it's Grok's turn.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/16/2026 - 16:40

Their "Democracy" Is Nothing More Than A Gigantic Engine Of Grift

Zero Hedge -

Their "Democracy" Is Nothing More Than A Gigantic Engine Of Grift

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

Act Now!

"The more contradiction you carry, the more reality resists you. Because you’re fracturing the signal with every step."

- SightBringer on "X"

Don’t be too surprised if sometime later this day, Friday, the president invokes the Insurrection Act to tranquilize the city of Minneapolis, since aerial spraying of Olanzapine is probably out of the question. Where, oh where, are the mythologized “nice,” and “above-average” people of Minnesota, once praised in song and sketch on those long-ago Saturday nights of The Prairie Home Companion?

They have been replaced by a mutant army of psychotic Transtifa wendigos on the payroll of Arabella Advisors (now operating as Sunflower Services), or the Tides Foundation, or some other Soros-connected money-laundry.

And many have come from other states, possibly even other nations (or planets), to join the Cluster-B viragos native to the city in the crusade to defend “Joe Biden’s” legion of illegally imported Democratic Party voters.

This acute agitation in the streets against federal officers is obviously and brazenly abetted by those in charge: Governor Tim Walz, Mayor Jacob Frey, and Attorney General Keith Ellison. Walz is a huckleberry for the ages.

Did you catch his smarmy sob-story act the day before yesterday, weeping for his “communities” and “neighbors-of-color,” “who continue to stand up for freedom with empathy, blah blah.” Who does this fraudster think he is kidding with his act?

Perhaps the erstwhile normies of his own sadly-deranged state, those Norwegian bachelor farmers, red-cheeked farm girls, and spelling bee champs of the Great Plains, sulking in a state of permanent cringe out in St. Cloud, Red Lake, and Sleepy Eye. It’s a wonder that these folks didn’t form a mob of their own and converge on the Governor’s mansion in St. Paul with pitchforks, torches, and thirty-odd feet of good organic sisal rope. Apparently, they are overwhelmed by the programmed mischief underway. Minneapolis has transformed itself into something unrecognizable, Somalia-on-the-Mississippi, a place not worthy of their affection or worth defending.

So, it will be up to Mr. Trump to put an end to this effrontery. And let’s hope that includes federal marshals coming to arrest and remove Messrs. Walz, Frey, and Ellison, pending some due process to determine their deliberate malfeasance in this massive obstruction of justice. Then imagine the squealing of Hakim Jeffries and Empathy Champeen of the World Chuck Schumer: “Our Democracy! Our Democracy!” Not to put too fine a point on it, but fuck you, Hakim and Chuck, and the donkeys you rode in on. The non-psychotic citizens of this land have had enough fakery and enough of your party’s treasonous, violent revolt in the defense of fakery.

Their “democracy” is nothing more than a gigantic engine of grift, meticulously assembled over the decades in Minnesota (and, you can be sure, all over the rest of the USA), and now it has been found out. The accountants are coming for accountability. They’re going to discover exactly how it was assembled and who assembled it, and how the taxpayers’ money flowed in around and through this infernal machine and a lot of people will be going to jail. Your empathy ghost-dances will not avail to stop it.

And, by the way, this accounting will happen whether or not Mr. Trump actually invokes the Insurrection Act. After a mild Friday, next week’s temperatures in the Twin Cities are due to plunge into the single digits and below, and stay down there for the rest of month —a likely discouragement to the paid rioters. Will the Soros network just buy them all plane tickets for more temperate parts of the country and open up a new front of agitation? I’d bet on that. In fact, I’d specify Portland, OR, and Seattle, where the game-board is still out like a welcome mat, and the local cops are all trained-up to stand by and do nothing, and the vacant store-fronts are stocked with snacks and water bottles for the useful mentally ill. Let the games resume there! The elected officials of those cities and states could stand a little jail time, too, as a “learing” experience, you gotta think.

In the meantime, prepare for more startling global developments, including the collapse of the mullah’s regime in Iran. Despite the bluster emanating from Tehran, that country is at the mercy of forces greater than just folks yelling in the streets. They are running out of water and their money, the Rial, has run out of purchasing mojo. Iran’s economy has tanked. Everybody there knows it’s the result of nearly fifty years of gross mismanagement. Try governing a country with no economy. Mr. Trump’s military will probably not have to lift a finger. And, then, perhaps astounding changes follow.

Like, for instance, Iran’s oil goes offline for China, just as Venezuela’s oil did a week or so ago. Money stops flowing to Jihadis around the world. Let the Persians be Persians again. Deep reverberations anon. . . Ukraine. . . Greenland. . . .

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/16/2026 - 16:20

Dave Smith: "America First Means Non-Interventionism"; Republicans Debate GOP Schism

Zero Hedge -

Dave Smith: "America First Means Non-Interventionism"; Republicans Debate GOP Schism

Yesterday, in a special ZeroHedge debate on What Is America First?, libertarian comedian Dave Smith and conservative filmmaker Dinesh D'Souza clashed over whether the slogan implies non-intervention abroad or a more assertive, national interest-driven foreign policy. Moderated by Judge Andrew Napolitano, the exchange cut directly to the fault lines dividing the modern right into what might be coined the Carlson and Shapiro camps.

Here were the highlights for those who missed it:

“America First means non-interventionism”

Smith argued America First ought to mean “a preference for republicanism, little ‘r’, over imperialism,” citing its earliest presidential use which followed that logic. Woodrow Wilson campaigned on America First by “promising to keep us out of World War I,” before reversing course, an example of how presidents often “campaign on one thing and then do the exact opposite.”

The phrase was later used “to oppose military adventurism,” by figures like Robert Taft and by the America First Committee, which opposed U.S. entry into World War II, and by Pat Buchanan. Donald Trump picked up “the exact same theme,” pledging to “break with neoconservatism,” reject “regime change wars,” and eventually boasting of “no new wars.” 

Saying America First means “toppling the Ayatollah” or “flirting with wars of choice, and wars of aggression,” Smith said, “is nonsense.”

“We’re not gonna go fight wars to make the military industrial complex rich… we’re not gonna fight wars on behalf of Israel that are not in the interest of the United States of America.”

“This is Idiocy”

D’Souza framed his rebuttal around national attachment: “This is our country and our patriotism is based on an attachment to our country.” Nations act on interests, where “this guy has a lot of oil and we could use some of that,” or “this country has rare earth minerals and we could use some of that.”

He stressed that the United States was no longer a weak republic. “We are a powerful country in the world today.” Early cautions by John Quincy Adams about not “go[ing] in search of monsters to destroy,” reflected, in his telling, the reality of a fledgling state. D’Souza compared that posture to “an infant in the playground” who avoided fights because “I’m three years old,” a position that changed “when his position of power is completely different.”

For D’Souza, this is realism: “We have ideals and interests and we live in a hostile world.” That world included actors who were “beneficial to our interests” and those who were “harmful or inimical to that.” He summarized the isolationist stance as “closing your eyes, sticking your two forefingers in your ears… this is idiocy.”

The Israel Question

When the question was posed by the Judge, D’Souza rejected the idea that the United States is subservient to Israel, arguing the power relationship ran in the opposite direction.

“It makes no sense to talk about the rabbit controlling the elephant when quite clearly the elephant controls the rabbit.” As evidence, he pointed to Iran, saying Israel would have welcomed U.S. action to “wipe out the mullahs,” but “their hand was stayed” by Trump, “a clear indication of the United States calling the shots and not Israel.”

The value of a Jewish-Christian alliance, D’Souza said, is that the LGBT community and radical Islam are forming an unholy alliance and taking over the domestic United States.

Smith argued U.S.-Israel relationship has led only to “a lot of trouble and a lot of unnecessary wars.” He mocked the “fight them over there” justification, noting that after “two plus decades fighting them over there, slaughtering them by the millions, blowing trillions of dollars,” the argument simply shifted to “look, we got to fight them over here.” 

Smith then described the pro-Israel security argument as circular. “If we support Israel, then a whole bunch of Muslims hate us because we support Israel,” he said, that hostility was then used as proof that “see, the Muslims hate us and therefore we have to keep supporting Israel.”

Watch the full debate on X: Or listen on Spotify:

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/16/2026 - 15:20

FTC Imposes 5-Year Ban On GM Disclosing Geolocation, Driver Data To Consumer Reporting Agencies

Zero Hedge -

FTC Imposes 5-Year Ban On GM Disclosing Geolocation, Driver Data To Consumer Reporting Agencies

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has finalized an order banning General Motors (GM) from disclosing consumers’ geolocation and driver behavior data to consumer reporting agencies for a period of five years, the agency said in a Jan. 14 statement.

The FTC had filed a complaint against GM and its subsidiary OnStar LLC in January 2025.

GM “collected, used, and sold drivers’ precise geolocation data and driving behavior information from millions of vehicles—data that can be used to set insurance rates—without adequately notifying consumers and obtaining their affirmative consent,” the agency said at the time.

GM was encouraging customers to sign up for its OnStar connected vehicle service and the OnStar Smart Driver feature through a “misleading enrollment process,” the FTC said at the time.

During enrollment, the company did not “clearly disclose” that collected information—including data regarding speeding, late-night driving, and instances of hard braking—would be sold to third parties such as consumer reporting agencies, the commission said.

This information was used by reporting agencies to compile credit reports that were subsequently utilized by insurance companies to set rates and deny insurance, the commission said. The FTC said that tracking and collecting geolocation data was an invasion of privacy.

The five-year ban is part of the FTC’s settlement order with GM. The ban is appropriate “given GM’s egregious betrayal of consumers’ trust,” the FTC statement said. The order was issued against OnStar LLC, General Motors LLC, and General Motors Holdings LLC, which are all owned by the General Motors Company.

In addition, for the next 20 years of the order, GM is required to obtain “affirmative express consent from consumers prior to collecting, using, or sharing connected vehicle data” except under certain circumstances, such as providing location data to emergency first responders, the FTC said.

During that period, GM must ensure that U.S. customers can request a copy of their data, ask for their data to be deleted, and opt out of geolocation and driver behavior data collection.

“The Federal Trade Commission has formally approved the agreement reached last year with General Motors to address concerns,” a GM spokesperson told The Epoch Times on Jan. 15.

“As vehicle connectivity becomes increasingly integral to the driving experience, GM remains committed to protecting customer privacy, maintaining trust, and ensuring customers have a clear understanding of our practices.”

In a statement on Jan. 16, 2025, GM said that although Smart Driver was created to promote safer driving among users, the company ended the program following customer feedback.

“Last year, we discontinued Smart Driver across all GM vehicles, unenrolled all customers, and ended our third-party telematics relationships with LexisNexis and Verisk,” GM said at the time.

“The FTC consent order includes new measures that go above and beyond existing law, while capturing steps we’ve already taken to establish choices for customer data collection and communications about how the information is used.”

GM had affirmed that it would obtain customer consent before collecting, using, or disclosing certain types of connected vehicle data, in line with its agreement with the FTC.

Vehicle Data Collection

Multiple other car companies admit to collecting driver data as part of their privacy policies.

For instance, Honda gathers geolocation and driver behavior data, according to its data privacy practices webpage.

Driver behavior information includes “vehicle speed, vehicle acceleration and deceleration, pedal positions, engine speed, direction and time of travel, steering angle, yaw rate, vehicle control, and Honda Sensing or Acura Watch system settings and usage,” it said.

In a Jan. 6 statement, Toyota said it collects a vehicle’s precise location, within 1,850 feet. The company clarified that it does not use the location or driving data for marketing purposes or offer it to third parties.

Kia’s privacy policy states that the company collects geolocation data and other vehicle information that could be shared with third parties for purposes such as crash notification assistance, content-based services, roadside assistance, and determining driving score and usage-based insurance.

In April, Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) introduced the Connected Vehicle National Security Review Act, which would allow the Department of Commerce to ban or restrict connected vehicles or components coming from China or other nations of concern if deemed to pose a threat to national security, according to an April 10, 2025, statement from the lawmaker’s office.

“Chinese vehicles, which are dirt cheap thanks to state subsidies, could collect full motion video of sensitive sites, 3-D mapping, and geolocation of individual drivers—all of which could be sent back to Beijing,” Slotkin said.

The bill was referred to the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs in June 2025.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/16/2026 - 15:00

The Wrong Solution: AI Productivity, Employment, & UBI

Zero Hedge -

The Wrong Solution: AI Productivity, Employment, & UBI

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

It is expected that AI productivity increases will vastly transform the U.S. economy. Firms are utilizing AI productivity enhancements to automate repetitive tasks, and research and coding functions have already been implemented. The obvious problem is that when machines perform functions once done by humans, what are the humans supposed to do for income? This increase in AI productivity is measurable across various sectors, as supply chains operate more efficiently, data analysis accelerates, and customer service utilizes automated agents to streamline tasks. Manufacturing, once considered a stable sector of the economy, is increasingly using robotics to reduce labor costs. Professional services are also increasingly displacing workers in medical, legal, and other areas of the service economy to improve output (read: profits) per worker.

This is not a new thing. It has been accelerating since the invention of the fax machine and phone answering devices. The use of AI productivity-enhancing technology is becoming increasingly apparent. But as shown, the shift by corporations to focus on worker productivity is ongoing.

Recent corporate statements confirm this shift. At a 2025 financial conference, JPMorgan Chase reported that AI adoption doubled productivity gains in certain operations from 3% to 6%, with some roles seeing efficiency increases of 40% to 50%. Other banks said AI allows them to accomplish more work with the same headcount.

In theory, the promise of AI productivity increases is alluring. While firms can produce more with fewer inputs, humans will have more time to pursue education, leisure, and spend time with their families, increasing overall health and happiness. Again, that is theory, and the subject of today’s commentary.

Productivity Set To Surge

The strict definition of “productivity” is the output per unit of input. In other words, if output rises, it should correspond to an increase in employee compensation, as economic demand leads to the production of more products. Since 1947, a correlation has existed between economic output and the 3-month average of the annual rate of change in employee compensation.

Between 2004 and the pandemic, annual labor productivity growth averaged just 1.5% per year, significantly below the pace required for sustained real wage improvement. Recent gains measured in 2023 showed a temporary uptick; however, whether this marks a trend driven by AI rather than short-term business cycles remains unclear.

Furthermore, emerging research suggests that AI has the potential to deliver significant productivity improvements. A study of generative AI usage found that average workers using tools like ChatGPT completed tasks 40% faster with higher quality, implying substantial productivity enhancements when AI is integrated into work processes. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis estimated that generative AI contributed a roughly 1.1% boost to aggregate productivity, with individual workers saving multiple hours per week on routine tasks. Lastly, a TIME-published analysis of Anthropic research suggests that AI has the potential to double U.S. labor productivity growth, increasing it by approximately 1.8% if widespread adoption occurs.

These projections also align with broader institutional forecasts. The IMF reports that AI could significantly impact nearly 40% of jobs worldwide, presenting both opportunities and risks for income growth and inequality. Yet, productivity gains alone do not automatically lead to wage increases or employment growth.

The Problem

The problem arises when productivity increases without a corresponding demand for labor. AI operates without downtime, 24/7, and does not require traditional wages, benefits, or breaks. If AI performs tasks that previously employed millions of workers, the question of how displaced workers earn income becomes central. Corporate leaders acknowledge this challenge. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has highlighted the unpredictability of AI’s impact, noting that productivity gains may come with labor market disruptions that current policy tools are ill-equipped to manage.

Historical examples show how technological shifts displace workers in the short term. For instance, during the “Industrial Revolution,” artisans lost jobs to mechanized production. Horse‑drawn carriage drivers disappeared with the advent of automobiles. Yes, workers eventually moved into new fields, but the transition involved hardship and community upheaval. Automation in prior eras often created new kinds of jobs, but the pace and breadth of AI disruption could set this wave apart. Instead of merely replacing manual labor, AI now substitutes for tasks across both blue-collar and white-collar jobs. Research by Oxford economists Carl Frey and Michael Osborne highlighted that many occupations have tasks that are susceptible to automation, and could disappear entirely.

Compounding the challenge, since the late 1970s, productivity gains started diverging from typical worker compensation. According to the Economic Policy Institute, productivity growth far outpaced wage growth for the median worker, signaling that gains from technology and economic expansion have accrued disproportionately to capital owners and high‑skill labor. This productivity-pay gap signals that, even before AI’s full impact arrives, workers were not sharing equitably in productivity-driven prosperity.

The pace of technological change means millions of Americans face an uncertain labor market. Young workers entering the workforce find fewer traditional hiring pathways and rising expectations around digital and AI‑related skills. Older workers frequently lack the time or resources to retrain in rapidly shifting skill environments. Across age groups, employers deploying AI experience reduced labor costs and increased productivity, which simultaneously puts pressure on wages and job security.

The reality is stark. The economy may grow, but how the gains are distributed will determine whether everyday Americans thrive or struggle. Without structural policy interventions, technological displacement risks widening income inequality and weakening labor market attachment. The promise of more leisure, education, and family time from productivity gains remains theoretical. If workers lack stable incomes, employment opportunities, or bridging support, the rest won’t matter.

But, this is where the “cries for UBI” become most vocal.

The Wrong Solution

Legendary investor Howard Marks has described AI’s impact on employment as “terrifying. He emphasized that work provides purpose and identity beyond mere income. Notably, he stated that “…financial support alone will not replace the psychological and social benefits of employment.” That is a crucially important statement, which we now have the data to support. Universal Basic Income (UBI) is the default proposal to offset the impacts of increased AI productivity. The logic sounds simple enough: “If AI displaces workers, send checks to households to replace lost wages and economic stability returns.”

The problem is that the evidence does not support this conclusion.

Following the pandemic-driven shutdown of the economy, we sent checks to households, which was a form of Universal Basic Income. Many articles espoused the benefits of such an operation, but the results were far less appealing. Surging inflation eroded the benefits of the stimulus and left Americans far worse off than they would have been otherwise. However, other real-time tests have also yielded less than promising outcomes.

We previously discussed one of the UBI experiments, which found predictable results. Short-term relief did not translate into higher employment, improved skills, or long-term income growth. Cash transfers temporarily increased consumption but did not raise productivity, increase labor force participation, or improve economic mobility.

“Participants in the study generally did not use the extra time to seek new or better jobs—even though younger participants were slightly more likely to pursue additional education. There was no clear indication that the participants in the study were more likely to take the risk of starting a new business, although Vivalt points out that there was a significant uptick in “precursors” to entrepreneurialism. Instead, the largest increases were in categories that the researchers termed social and solo leisure activities.”

The Argument magazine also reviewed multiple studies on guaranteed income and reached a similar conclusion. While recipients reported lower stress and higher short-term satisfaction, these gains faded quickly. Employment outcomes showed little improvement, job search intensity declined in several cases, and participation in education and retraining did not rise significantly.

In other words, giving people money without purpose helped much less than promised.

The core flaw in UBI is structural, as it treats income as the problem. Employment is the real issue. Yes, work provides wages, but it also offers skill development, social structure, and a sense of purpose, along with long-term stability. A simple check replaces none of those, and unfortunately, as 2020 shows, when producers realize that checks are being sent, they raise prices to capitalize on it. In other words, an artificial increase in incomes will quickly be absorbed by higher prices (inflation), effectively rendering the UBI useless.

Here is the most critical point.

“An economy cannot function on transfers alone; production must precede consumption. UBI reverses this order.

Cost also matters. A national UBI program large enough to offset AI-driven displacement would require trillions of dollars annually. Funding such a program would either require higher taxes, debt expansion, or both. While each option will reduce future growth, higher taxes reduce investment incentives, while increased debt raises interest costs and crowds out private capital. Neither path supports long-term prosperity.

UBI also weakens the labor signal. Wages communicate where labor is needed, and training follows opportunity. UBI dulls this signal by separating income from work, and, over time, workforce attachment erodes, skills decay, and reentry into employment becomes increasingly complex. This dynamic showed up repeatedly in pilot programs.

Most importantly, UBI avoids the hard work of reform. It sidesteps education reform, workforce retraining, mobility assistance, and pro-growth labor policy. It accepts displacement as inevitable and permanent. History shows this approach fails, and past technological shifts succeeded because workers moved into new roles. In other words, policy supported adaptation, not withdrawal.

AI productivity gains will demand active solutions, not government gifts. Skill development, apprenticeships, employer-based training, wage insurance, and mobility support. These tools address displacement directly, while UBI does not.

Defaulting to UBI is an admission of policy failure and signals surrender to the disruption rather than managing it. The United States grew prosperous by expanding opportunity, not replacing work with checks. That lesson remains relevant today as AI continues to reshape the economy.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/16/2026 - 14:20

LIS Technologies Launches $1.4 Billion Laser Uranium Enrichment Project In Tennessee

Zero Hedge -

LIS Technologies Launches $1.4 Billion Laser Uranium Enrichment Project In Tennessee

LIS Technologies announced a $1.4 billion uranium enrichment project in Oakridge, Tennessee at the former iconic K-25 site, which until 1987 was a massive gaseous diffusion facility built for the Manhattan Project to enrich uranium-235 for atomic bombs. The company will set up shop on the 206-acre on Duct Island, which will be renamed to LIST Island.

Following the renaming of the 206-acre Duct Island to LIST Island and its redevelopment to house the Company's commercial laser-based uranium enrichment headquarters, Oak Ridge, TN is expected to become the site of the world's first US-origin commercial laser uranium enrichment facility, supporting U.S. utilities, next-generation reactor developers, and national defense requirements while helping to reestablish a resilient domestic nuclear fuel supply chain.

"Tennessee continues to lead the nation in advancing American energy independence, which is why innovative companies like LIS Technologies recognize our efforts through projects like this," said Tennessee Governor Bill Lee. "By creating the Nuclear Energy Fund, we have uniquely positioned our state at the forefront of cutting-edge R&D, and I look forward to the positive impact this project will have for Tennesseans across our state."

The company intends to break ground and begin site preparation and civil construction in 2026 subject to licensing, permitting, and final investment decisions.

LIST is targeting initial commercial operations before 2030, positioning its laser enrichment facility to meet accelerating demand for domestically sourced uranium enrichment.

LIST has partnered with Nano Nuclear to vertically integrate the nuclear fuel chain with reactor development and deployment. The companies are working together to commercialize the Kronos, Zeus, and Loki reactors and supply the necessary fuel for them to operate.

Nano Nuclear CEO Jay Yu, Tennessee Governor Bill Lee and Christo Liebenberg, co-foundder and president of LIS Technology

As the push for US nuclear development goes into high gear, the 3rd-generation laser enrichment technology from LIST could be used to produce low enriched uranium (LEU) and high-assay LEU (HALEU) for use in both traditional commercial reactors and advanced reactors throughout the US. The Department of Energy is pursuing the revitalization of the nuclear supply chain due to a current heavy reliance on foreign imports to fuel the nation's reactor fleet. LIST's major advantage over its peers in the laser enrichment field is that its process is the only US-origin technology in development. 

LIST states they will pursue site characterization and the initial phases of construction during this calendar year. It is then anticipated the company will begin discussions with the NRC to submit an application for the new nuclear fuel facility.

Nano Nuclear, a developer of small modular reactors, first invested in LIST in 2024, which included an enriched uranium supply agreement between the two companies and a potential for future collaboration on fuel fabrication facilities. Nano is still exploring the potential for entering the fabrication market, but has yet to make any announcements regarding land acquisition or regulatory engagement.

Nano recently entered into an engineering agreement with Ameresco for eventual commercialization of their reactor designs, and most recently started the process for preparing the Loki design for use in space applications. Nano Nuclear acquired the Kronos and Loki designs from the now-defunct Ultra Safe Nuclear Corp during bankruptcy proceedings at the end of 2024.

Nano claims the Kronos design is in a high technical readiness state and is one of the leading high-temperature gas-cooled reactor designs in development. It is expected to enter commercial production by the end of the decade.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/16/2026 - 14:00

Democrats Fight To Keep Insurrection Myth Alive In New J6 Committee

Zero Hedge -

Democrats Fight To Keep Insurrection Myth Alive In New J6 Committee

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The new J6 Committee has started its hearings and, unlike the prior Committee, Republicans have allowed Democrats to select members to sit in opposition. That has led to sharp exchanges, but one of the more interesting occurred between Rep. Harriet Hageman (R., Wyo.) and Jamie Raskin (D., Md.). After Hageman got a witness to admit that no one was charged with incitement, Raskin made the clearly false statement that a few defendants charged with seditious conspiracy was the same thing as incitement. It is not.

Rep. Raskin triggered the confrontation by making a clearly false claim about one of those charged by the Biden Administration: “I would just commend to everybody the testimony of Pamela Hemphill, who was a convicted insurrectionist that was pardoned. She rejected her pardon.”

In reality, Hemphill was charged (like most of the rioters) with relatively minor misdemeanors. She pleaded guilty to one count of demonstrating, picketing, or parading in a Capitol building and received just 60 days in prison, 36 months of probation, and a $500 fine for restitution. She was never charged with insurrection or any felony.

Rep. Hageman pounced on the comment and asked former Justice Department prosecutor Michael Romano whether any January 6 protester had actually been convicted under the federal insurrection statute.

Romano tried to dodge the question but admitted that no one, not Trump nor any rioter, was ever charged with insurrection. Notably, after January 6th, there was a great amount of coverage on Trump and his aides being possibly charged with insurrection or incitement. Despite some of us noting that the speech was clearly protected under the First Amendment, the press portrayed such a charge as credible and heaped coverage on District of Columbia Attorney General Karl Racine, who announced that he was considering arresting Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Rudy Giuliani, and U.S. Rep. Mo Brooks and charging them with incitement. It never happened. The reason is obvious. It could not be legally maintained.

While the FBI launched a massive national investigation, it did not find evidence of an insurrection. While a few were charged with seditious conspiracy, no one was charged with insurrection.

The Supreme Court later reduced charges further by rejecting obstruction charges in some cases.

Yet that did not stop members and the media from repeating the false mantra that this was an insurrection, despite some of us immediately rejecting it as legally unsustainable. Indeed, Democrats used the false claim to seek to disqualify Trump and dozens of Republicans from ballots.

Now back to the hearing.

Hageman asked the witness, “Mr. Romano, did you prosecute anyone related to January 6th for engaging in an insurrection?” she asked. Romano responded, “No, congresswoman.”

That is when Raskin objected and tried to interrupt the confirmation that, in fact, there never was an insurrection or any such charges.

Hageman persisted, “So, Mr. Raskin’s statement that someone was a ‘convicted insurrectionist’ is actually inaccurate, isn’t that correct?”

When Romano again tried to pivot, she pressed further, “She wasn’t a convicted insurrectionist, was she?”

“For the crime of insurrection, no,” he admitted.

Raskin shouted, “Do you accept seditious conspiracy as insurrection?”

It was a telling statement.

For the record, I have long been a critic of sedition crimes. As I discuss in my book “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage,”sedition was a noxious import from Great Britain. British judges had balked at the effort to accuse citizens of treason for things like telling bawdy jokes about the queen in some pub.

However, putting that aside, the handful of charges for seditious conspiracy are not legally the same or even close to an insurrection charge. Rep. Raskin, a former law professor, must know that.

The provision in 18 U.S.C. 2384 has long been controversial because it is so sweeping and includes any effort “by force to prevent, hinder, or delay the execution of any law.” While the provision can also entail an intent to overthrow the country, the provision covers any interference with federal proceedings or laws.

Ironically, Raskin opposes the invocation of the Insurrection Act in cities like Minneapolis on the basis of the interference with federal officials in the enforcement of federal law. However, he seems to view this provision as endlessly malleable, so that anyone accused of hindering the execution of a federal law is an insurrectionist.

After January 6th, Justice Department official Michael Sherwin publicly declared that “our office wanted to ensure that there was shock and awe” in hitting people with a maximal level of charges. Yet, despite that “shock and awe” effort, not a single charge for insurrection was ever brought — an inconvenient truth for members like Raskin.

None of this excuses the outrageous riot that occurred on that terrible day. However, seeking to conform the criminal code to the political narrative serves neither the Congress nor the public.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/16/2026 - 13:40

ACLU And Celebs Release Cringe Appeal To Allow Men In Women's Sports

Zero Hedge -

ACLU And Celebs Release Cringe Appeal To Allow Men In Women's Sports

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The American Civil Liberties Union has rolled out a new campaign pushing for biological males to compete in women’s sports, just as the Supreme Court takes up cases that could finally protect female athletes from unfair competition.

Featuring ‘stars’ including Megan Rapinoe and Naomi Watts, the ad frames this as a fight for “freedom,” when in reality it’s just another leftist assault on women’s rights and fair play.

The ACLU’s “More Than A Game” ad, launched during women’s basketball games on January 12, features celebrities and young people delivering lines like: “When you’re young, you believe that you can do anything. And then the world tries to set limits for you. Tell you what’s allowed, what is normal, who you’re supposed to be.”

It continues: “But on the field, the track, the court, here you get to be exactly who you want. Because at our core, we still are kids that just want to play. The go big game changers. The living, breathing fabric of this country.”

The ad closes with: “Supporting trans youth isn’t just about sports. It’s about freedom on and off the field. It’s more than a game.”

The campaign ties directly to Supreme Court cases challenging bans on transgender girls in school sports in West Virginia and Idaho.

Rapinoe has stated: “I am not going to be tricked into sacrificing hard fought civil rights protections because of anti-trans rhetoric. All women will be harmed if the Court rules against the young trans people at the center of these cases and I wanted to make unambiguously clear that I am on the side of equality and justice.”

Watts, whose child reportedly identifies as transgender, adds in the ad: “It’s about freedom.”

Of course, this completely ignores the real victims: female athletes robbed of opportunities, safety, and medals by males leveraging biological edges.

This push comes right after the Olympics finally acknowledged what everyone knows: men have inherent advantages over women in sports, leading to a ban on transgender athletes in women’s events. As we previously highlighted, the IOC’s policy shift was a win for science and fairness, highlighting decades of evidence that no amount of ideology can erase.

Former Olympic swimmer Sharron Davies, who spoke at a Supreme Court rally against male inclusion in women’s sports, slammed the ACLU’s arguments in one case, noting males’ inherent advantages like bone structure and reduced injury risk. “We cannot remove male physical advantage. NO male belongs in female sport. It’s cheating,” she posted. Davies emphasized: “The Supreme Court’s trans athlete ruling matters to women everywhere.”

Tennis legend Martina Navratilova blasted human rights groups like the ACLU for prioritizing trans demands over women’s rights: “Unreal how all these ‘human rights’ organizations are so willingly chucking women’s rights out the window…”

XX-XY Athletics, a brand championing women’s sports, fired back at the ACLU directly: “The only rights being violated when males compete in women’s sports are those of the women. You are fighting for the wrong side here.” They shared footage from rallies, underscoring the fight to keep sports fair.

Leftist campaigns like this one expose the hypocrisy: claiming to empower women while stripping them of hard-won spaces. Real freedom means safeguarding biology-based categories, not bowing to ridiculous woke pressure that endangers girls’ dreams and safety.

As the Supreme Court deliberates, this could be a turning point—rejecting the erasure of women’s rights in favor of common-sense protections for female athletes.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/16/2026 - 13:00

EU Mulls Ditching Accession System Used Since Cold War To Fast-Track Ukraine

Zero Hedge -

EU Mulls Ditching Accession System Used Since Cold War To Fast-Track Ukraine

When in doubt, just change the rules - or so goes the thinking in Brussels as it seeks to get creative on ways to allow Ukraine's quick accession to the European Union, despite it being consistently ranked among the most corrupt governments on earth.

EU officials have described that a current plan being taken seriously is a 'limited' membership tier, part of a proposed European peace deal to end the Russia-Ukraine war, but which would withhold full membership rights for Kiev, which later must be "earned" according to a phrased transition.

Financial Times puts it this way: "Brussels is drafting proposals to tear up the EU accession system used since the cold war, replacing it with a contentious two-tier model that could fast-track Ukraine's entry in any peace deal to end Russia’s invasion."

File image via CEPA

These alternative plans have taken greater urgency after "Ukrainian EU membership in 2027" was added into the 20-point peace plan which has been subject of intense back-and-forth between the US, Ukraine, and EU.

As far as drastically changing the accession process for merely a single 'exception' - one EU official who is a proponent was quoted in NBC as saying, "We have to recognize that we are in a very different reality than when the (accession) rules were first drawn up."

And yet immense hurdles would remain, regardless, especially those states seen as 'Russia-friendly' and heavily reliant on Russian energy, Hungary and Slovakia. Joining the bloc requires formal approval of all 27 EU member nations. On top of this, as NBC points out:

But many E.U. governments believe that date, or any other fixed date, is completely unrealistic, because E.U. accession is currently a merit-based process, moving forward only when there is progress in adjusting a country's laws to E.U. standards.

Joining the bloc also requires sign-off from the national parliaments of the EU's 27 member states. Some kind of 'staged access' plan could then open the flood gates for others who are not ready, and whose economies would be a drag and drain and the rest of the EU.

A somewhat recent member like Poland was not even at war when it joined in the 2004 membership wave during the Bush era. Poland itself could stand in the way of fast-tracking Ukraine, with the two eastern European neighbors recently being engaged in several tense diplomatic disputes.

But one unnamed diplomat has argued:

"It is Europe’s interest to have Ukraine in the E.U., because of our own security," an E.U. diplomat said.

"It is why we need to look for creative solutions - how to get Ukraine in the E.U. quickly. The reversed membership concept reflects this idea - to have Ukraine joining the E.U. politically and then getting full rights and full-fledged membership once all conditions are met," the diplomat said.

The European Union has meanwhile continued full steam ahead in efforts to ramp up support to Ukraine's defense sector, even as Washington has been seen as largely withdrawing. For example last November European Parliament voted to approve a 1.5 billion euros ($1.7bn) program which seeks to deepen integration between Ukraine and Europe on military-industrial relations.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/16/2026 - 12:40

Shale Pioneer Harold Hamm Steps Back From Bakken After Decades

Zero Hedge -

Shale Pioneer Harold Hamm Steps Back From Bakken After Decades

Harold Hamm says low oil prices are forcing a step he hasn’t taken in decades: shutting down drilling in North Dakota’s Bakken, according to Bloomberg.

“This will be the first time in over 30 years that Harold Hamm has not had an operation with drilling rigs in North Dakota,” he said. “That tells you a whole lot right there: There’s no need to drill it when margins are basically gone.”

The decision underscores how far conditions have shifted in the region that once defined the US shale boom. The Bakken was where Hamm showed that fracking could unlock oil long thought unreachable, helping transform the US into the world’s leading producer and reshaping global energy markets.

Bloomberg writes that the pullback reflects pressure across the industry. Even as Hamm backs President Donald Trump, producers are feeling the strain from policies aimed at pushing oil prices lower to fight inflation, at the expense of profitability.

Costs are rising just as prices fall. BloombergNEF estimates that a typical Bakken well now needs about $58 a barrel to break even, nearly 4% higher than a year ago. At the same time, US benchmark crude has slid about 25% over the past year to roughly $59, weighed down by fears of oversupply and expectations of more barrels entering the market, including from Venezuela.

Drilling activity has dropped nationwide, with US rig counts down 15% over the past year and the biggest reductions coming from the Permian Basin.

“A lot of people are assessing their activity in all the basins,” Hamm said.

He made clear the pause may not be permanent. “We’re price takers, as you’re aware — not price makers,” he said with a laugh. “See what we can get.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/16/2026 - 12:00

Isotopes 101

Zero Hedge -

Isotopes 101

Submitted by TightSpreads 

Many smart investors are catching up to the nuclear story already, but there is another angle to it that is grossly uncovered: isotopes.

This educational primer provides a useful starting point for understanding isotope market opportunities and the nuclear equities or advanced materials companies to be featured soon.

Why is this timely?

  • Because Oklo management has told the street that radioisotope revenues could begin as early as Q1-2026.
  • Isotopes are about to drastically change the semiconductor, industrial, and medical industries.

What is an isotope?

Isotopes are atoms of the same element with identical chemical properties (same protons/electrons) but differing neutron counts, leading to variations in atomic mass and nuclear behavior. So if elements are families, isotopes are siblings. Being that sibings are similar, but not identical. They arise naturally as the result of ancient stellar explosions, cosmic ray interactions, and radioactive decay; or artificially via nuclear reactors/particle accelerators.

There are two types of isotopes: stable and unstable/radioactive. Stable isotopes have energetically balanced nucleus (protons/neutrons) and don’t decay. They are ideal for long-term uses like environmental tracking and are more ‘commoditized’ compared to radioactive isotopes. In contrast, radioactive isotopes have an imbalanced nucleus. This imbalance of energy, typically caused by an excess or deficiency of neutrons, forces the isotope to undergo spontaneous radioactive decay

Radioactive decay is a process exclusive to radioisotopes. It’s the transformation of an unstable atomic nucleus rebalancing into a more stable configuration. This process involves the release of energy through various decay modes, primarily alpha, beta, and gamma radiation. It is important to note that decay often occurs in sequences known as decay chains, where a parent isotope transforms into one or more daughter isotopes before reaching a final, stable state. The opportunity set of daughter isotopes have been increasingly researched and pursued in private markets, and more recently, public equity markets.

The rate of this transformation is measured by an isotope's half-life—the time required for half of a given sample to undergo decay. Half-lives vary significantly across the isotopic spectrum. This especially important for logistical considerations of isotope production and end-market delivery. Radioactive half-lives can be as short as septillionths of a second, but most commonly-used radioactive isotopes will have half-life spans of a few hours or days.

Major Applications

  • Nuclear Energy & Fuel Cycle:

    • Enrichment Services: Focus on Enriched U-235 for the existing fleet and HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium) for next-generation SMRs (Small Modular Reactors). Exacerbated by the “Russia Exit” play to shift the U.S. from Russian enrichment reliance and assert our own nuclear and material dominance.

    • Specialty Lithium: Lithium-7 is critical for pH control in pressurized water reactors (PWRs) to prevent corrosion, while Lithium-6 is the primary precursor for Tritium in the burgeoning fusion energy sector.

    • Market Tailwinds: The Nuclear Energy Institute estimates the nuclear fuel enrichment opportunity will grow from ~18.0 MT/ year in 2024 to ~613.8 MT/ year in 2035, reflecting a ~37.8% CAGR.

  • Medical (Primary Growth Engine):

    • Diagnostics: Technetium-99m (Tc-99m) remains the industry workhorse, utilized in approximately 80–85% of all nuclear diagnostic scans worldwide.

    • Theranostics (Targeted Therapies): The “Oncology Boom” is driven by Actinium-225 and Lutetium-177, which allow for “search and destroy” cancer treatments.

    • Market Tailwinds: According to Allied Market Research, the nuclear medical isotope market was estimated at ~$6.6B in 2025 and is projected to reach ~$14B by 2034 (8.8% CAGR). Growth is catalyzed by: the targeted oncology boom, a massive influx of biotech capital into radiopharmaceutical pipelines, aging global demographics, and the urgent need to diversify supply away from aging legacy reactors.

Supply Chain Fragility: The medical isotope market is notoriously fragile because it relies on a linear, "just-in-time" supply chain with almost no buffer for error. Much of the world’s supply currently relies on a handful of aging legacy reactors

  • High-Value Industrial & Tech Niches:

    • Semiconductors and Quantum Computing: Isolating and enriching materials like Silicon-28 or Phosphorus-31, can unlock significant technological performance enhancements. McKinsey estimates the global semiconductor market will reach ~$1T by 2030, up from ~$527B in 2023 (~7.7% CAGR).

    • Industrial and Tech: Germanium isotope end use cases span electronics, infrared optics, solar cells, and fiber optics, among other applications.

    • Industrial/Research: Helium-3 for cryogenics and neutron detection; Carbon-13 for metabolic research and gas tracing.

    • Resource Management: Isotopes are essential for oil/gas reservoir tracing and high-precision environmental monitoring (e.g., tracking carbon sources or water table movement).

Isotope Production and Enrichment

As we recently mentionef, elements come as a mix of “heavy” and “light” versions of their atomic masses. Thus, elements may have a variety of isotopes found and to be made. Production methods work by bombarding target materials with high-energy particles—such as neutrons in nuclear reactors to create neutron-rich isotopes or protons in cyclotrons to create proton-rich isotopes. Enrichment takes a natural mixture (like raw Uranium) and use precision methods such as lasers to "sort" or separate the isotopes that are already there.

In a high-tech supply chain, you often need both enrichment and production to get to a final product.

Production Methods:

The Future, Nuclear Reactors

  • The Process: Reactors act as “controlled furnaces” that generate a dense flux of neutrons. Target materials are inserted into the reactor core where they are “baked” or irradiated by these neutrons to create a radioactive isotope.

  • The Reaction (Neutron Capture): Because neutrons have no electrical charge, they easily enter the nucleus of a target atom. The nucleus absorbs the neutron, becoming a heavier and often unstable isotope that then decays into the desired material.

Why it’s better:

  • Massive Scale: Reactors are the only cost-competitive machines capable of “bulk” production, irradiating dozens of targets simultaneously. Making nuclear reactor isotope producers such as Oklo’s Versatile Isotope Production Reactors (VIPR) a strong contender for scaling U.S. domestic supply amid global shortages with uniform distribution.

  • Unique Capabilities: Only reactors can produce the neutron-rich therapeutic isotopes and industrial dopants that represent the current largest growth drivers in healthcare and AI.

The Specialized Alternative, Cyclotrons

  • The Process: Magnets and electricity fire a high-speed “proton beam” in an ever-widening spiral at a target.

  • The Result: This “proton bombardment” creates proton-rich isotopes.

Status: Commercially scaled and widely distributed, often found directly in or near hospitals due to the short half-lives of the isotopes they produce.

 

Cyclone separator - Energy Education

The Precision Straight-Line, Linear Accelerators (Linacs)

  • The Process: Propels charged particles in a straight line through a long vacuum tube using electric fields.

  • The Result: Produces a wide range of isotopes with high precision and reduced beam loss compared to cyclotrons.

  • Status: Commercially scaled for both isotope production and medical radiotherapy, though they often require significantly more physical space than cyclotrons.

The High-Energy Ring, Synchrotrons

  • The Process: Guides particles in a circular path using variable magnetic fields to keep them in a fixed ring as they gain extreme energy.

  • The Result: Capable of reaching GeV energy levels, far beyond what standard cyclotrons can achieve.

  • Status: Not typically used for commercial isotope production; they are primarily “frontier” machines for high-energy physics research and specialized cancer treatments like carbon-ion therapy.

Enrichment Methods:

The Current Standard, Gas Centrifuge

  • The Process: The material is turned into a gas and spun at incredibly high speeds in a cylinder.

  • The Result: The “heavy” pieces are thrown to the outside walls, while the “lighter” ones stay in the center. By repeating this hundreds of times through a cascade of centrifuges, the desired isotope is concentrated.

The Retired Method, Gaseous Diffusion

  • The Process: Pumping gas through miles of filters with tiny holes.

  • Status: This was the original Cold War method. It is now obsolete because it uses massive amounts of electricity and is far too expensive compared to modern spinning.

The Future, Laser Enrichment

After 50 years of development, laser technology is the “next frontier.” Unlike the methods above, lasers are surgical and precise. The only downfall has been their ability to scale lasers for mass commercialization.

  • How it works: Scientists “tune” a laser to a specific frequency that only hits the target isotope. It’s like using a specialized magnet to pull only the copper pennies out of a jar of mixed coins.

  • Why it’s better: It is much more efficient and can handle materials that centrifuges can’t.

Key laser types:

  • Atomic Vapor Laser Isotope Separation (AVLIS): Heat the element to gas atoms → lasers selectively charge (ionize) the target isotope → charged atoms stick to a collector plate (opposites attract). Was not scaled due to technical challenges.

  • Molecular Laser Isotope Separation (MLIS): Convert to a gas molecule → lasers excite/break bonds in molecules with the target isotope → enriched part is collected via collector plate.

SILEX (most advanced version, from Australia’s Silex Systems): A smarter MLIS approach. Lasers excite target molecules → in a fast-moving gas jet, excited (lighter) ones resist clumping/condensing and separate differently.

Avlis technique:

* * * 

Read more at the TightSpreads substack.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/16/2026 - 11:33

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