The paperback of “How NOT to Invest” drops this month; to celebrate, I present this excerpt from the book about a BW story that was published exactly 25 years ago!

This short, Apple-related excerpt from the book was a fun chapter to write… Enjoy!

 

 

“Sorry, Steve: Here’s Why Apple Stores Won’t Work”

“Few outsiders think new stores, no matter how well-conceived, will get Apple back on the hot-growth path… Maybe it’s time Steve Jobs stopped thinking quite so differently.”
—BusinessWeek, May 21, 2001

A year after Fortune’s Cisco debacle, BusinessWeek1 published a story on Apple’s foray into retail stores. Not just BusinessWeek, but many naysayers laughed off the inevitable failure of Apple’s push into retail.2 Numerous armchair pontificators freely shared their uninformed opinions as to why this concept was destined to fail. “I give [Apple] two years before they’re turning out the lights on a very painful and expensive mistake,” predicted retail consultant David Goldstein.3

After all, established consumer electronics chains were all in decline, and the writing was on the wall. Gateway would soon close its retail stores (2004), and not long after, CompUSA would shutter its physical locations (2007).

Investors should always be on the alert for structural errors in media stories: Authors operating outside of their expertise; people unaware of recent developments; extrapolators extending present trends far into the future. It is an excellent reminder of exactly the kinds of errors investors should avoid. A fallible human being publishing their uninformed opinion in print should never be the basis for making any intelligent investment decision.

There are many genuinely revolutionary products and services that when they come along, change everything. Pick your favorite: the iPod and iPhone, Tesla Model S, Netflix streaming, Amazon Prime, AI, perhaps even Bitcoin. Radical products break the mold; their difference and unfamiliarity challenge us. We (mostly) cannot foretell the impact of true innovation. Then once it’s a wild success, we have a hard time recalling how life was before that product existed.

The Apple Store was clearly one of those game-changers: By 2020, Apple had opened over 500 stores in 25 countries. They are among top-tier retailers, and the fastest ever to reach a billion dollars per year in sales. They did more in sales per square foot in 2012 than any other retailer.4 By 2017, they were generating $5,546 per square foot in revenues, twice the dollar amount of Tiffany’s, their closest competitor.5 Apple no longer breaks out the specifics of its stores in its quarterly reports, but estimates of store revenue is about $2.4 billion per month.

That guy who wrote, “Sorry, Steve: Here’s Why Apple Stores Won’t Work,” I wonder what the rest of his portfolio looks like…

Finance seems to encourage this kind of future forecasting. We are bad at this, because we often lack awareness of what we do and do not know about the limits of our expertise; we do not truly understand the present, let alone the future. We often wishfully predict what we want to be true, rather than what will come to be.

We look at the Dunning-Kruger effect later, but the key takeaway is most of us are not very good at metacognition—estimating our own skillsets.

Learning what we do and don’t know—working within our capabilities— that’s challenging enough, without other people’s bad forecasts in our heads…6

 

 

Footnotes:
1. Cliff Edwards, “Commentary: Sorry, Steve: Here’s Why Apple Stores Won’t Work,” BusinessWeek (May 21, 2001).

2. Nearly a decade and a half later, those naysayers were recounted here: Ana Swanson, “How the Apple store took over the world,” The Washington Post ( July 21, 2015).

3. Jerry Useem, “Apple: America’s best retailer,” Fortune (March 8 2007).

4. Seth Fiegerman, “Apple Has Twice the Sales Per Square Foot of Any Other U.S. Retailer,” Mashable (November 13, 2012).

5. Chance Miller, “Apple again found to be the world’s top retailer in sales per square foot,” 9TO5Mac ( July 29, 2017). See also: Marianne Wilson, “The most profitable retailers in sales per square foot are….” Chain Store Age (CSA) ( July 31, 2017).

6. If you think the Apple Store cover story was bad, just wait until you see what the media had to say about BlackBerry…

 

 

The paperback of “How NOT to Invest” is out this week at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, Books-AMillion, Bookshop, Hudson, or wherever you buy your favorite books!

If you want to learn more about how the book was made, any related media appearances or background, get unique bonus material, or just ask a question, you can sign up here: HNTI at RitholtzWealth dot com.

 

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A "Rubbish, Knee-Jerk Reaction": UK Treasury Pushes Food Price Caps As Inflation Re-Accelerates

UK supermarkets are being urged by the government to limit food prices in return for easing regulations.

As first reported by The Financial Times, the price caps are 'voluntary' and would apply to key groceries – such as eggs, bread, and milk - according to retail industry sources with knowledge of the plans.

In return, the government has said it would offer “incentives” to the supermarkets, which the people said could include easing packaging policies and potentially delaying costly changes to rules around healthy food.

As one may well expect, supermarkets are understood to be strongly opposed to the plans.

The Treasury has declined to comment.

The proposals come as Sir Keir Starmer’s government is battling to address public concern over the cost of living.

Scottish retailers recently condemned a similar policy by the Scottish National Party as a “1970s-style” gimmick.

One person close to a supermarket said the Treasury’s initiative was “a rubbish, knee-jerk reaction to the SNP”.

UK food inflation rose to 3.7 per cent in April, and the foreign secretary, Yvette Cooper, has warned the world is “sleepwalking into a global food crisis”, with the Middle East war throttling supply chains.

And in line with the magical thinking, the Treasury has also told supermarkets that it would like guarantees that British farmers would not lose income from shop price caps.

Former Brexit minister Lord Frost weighed in on social media platform X, calling the proposal "remarkable (and remarkably bad) if true.

"There are certainly plenty of people in this govt whose understanding of economics is so poor that they might consider it a good idea."

SNP leader John Swinney has defended his party's approach, arguing he faces a "public health responsibility" to ensure affordable nutrition for people "struggling to afford a very basic shop."

“It is a completely ill-thought-out, last-minute idea . . . The idea that the government can set price better than the market is for the birds,” one person familiar with the discussions told the FT.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 06:55

My mid-week morning train WFH reads:

• Stock Gains Without All the Taxes? How the Hottest Trade on Wall Street Works: The stock-market surge has propelled the use of a new kind of tax-loss harvesting. We break it down. The WSJ on the surge of direct-indexing and Section 351 ETF conversions that let wealthy investors swap concentrated stock into diversified portfolios without triggering capital gains. A useful explainer for clients asking about it. The stock-market surge has propelled the use of a new kind of tax-loss harvesting. We break it down. (Wall Street Journal)

• Trump’s Investments In Palantir And Nvidia Draw Scrutiny—Here’s What Companies Were Traded. President Donald Trump drew scrutiny Friday over millions of dollars of securities trades made in recent months involving companies his administration has also made deals with — though Trump’s son Eric said the trades were made by a blind trust. Forbes lines up the President’s recent trading activity against companies with direct policy exposure. Read alongside the WSJ pieces on his accounts — it’s a single story being told in pieces. (Forbes) see also See How Trump’s Accounts Were Busy Trading Big Tech Stocks: Trump’s investment accounts had a surge in activity, with more than 3,700 trades in the first quarter. The WSJ’s data-driven look at the trading activity reported across Trump-family accounts — well-timed mega-cap entries and exits clustered around policy news. Make of it what you will. (Wall Street Journal)

• New York Real Estate in the Age of Inherited Wealth. NYC housing no longer tracks real estate fundamentals, it tracks equity portfolios and private equity flows, a concentration that feels durable but has never been historically. On the increasingly visible role of parental cash in Manhattan and Brooklyn closings. The first-time buyer cohort is now functionally two markets — those with family equity and everyone else. (Housing Notes)

• Mapping the household-level transmission of monetary policy: The monetary tightening that followed the post-pandemic inflation episode has revived long-standing debates about how monetary policy affects households. This column uses a survey of more than 25,000 US households, combining hypothetical questions with randomised information experiments, to show that monetary policy has a contractionary impact on consumption, but the transmission mechanism differs substantially from conventional theory. VoxEU on micro-data showing rate hikes hit households very unevenly — by mortgage type, age, and income. Useful corrective to anyone still treating “the consumer” as a single object. (VOXEU CEPR)

• LinkedIn Is Doing What Bluesky Was Supposed to Do: Rebuilding a public square on the platform you least expect. For a brief moment about a year ago, it really did look like Bluesky might work. Researchers and left-of-center intellectuals were flooding in, swapping starter packs, reassembling what felt like a nostalgic reunion of old Twitter. Then everyone arrived, and the center could not hold. A sharp argument that the post-Twitter intellectual conversation didn’t move to Bluesky or Threads — it quietly migrated to LinkedIn, of all places. Uncomfortable for everyone involved, but not wrong. (Popular by Design)

• Why are people so excited about Swatch’s Royal Pop watch? Similar to past sales of its kind, some people queued for days to get their hands on one of the eight models. But the ferocity of interest in the product, both online and on the high street, has split opinions about responsible marketing and whether the watches are even worth it. (BBC)

• Google Chrome silently installs a 4 GB AI model on your device without consent: Including a back-of-envelope on the climate cost at billion-device scale. The ‘opt-out’ fiction continues. At a billion-device scale the climate costs are insane. (That Privacy Guy!)

• Russia’s War Is Going Badly—on the Ground and in the Air. Ukraine’s growing arsenal of long-range drones and domestically produced missiles has been hitting oil infrastructure and military facilities deeper inside Russia. Putin shows no signs he is rethinking his aims The WSJ on a Russian summer offensive that has stalled while drones and long-range strikes are quietly wrecking the air arm. The market narrative on oil and defense names is starting to lag the battlefield. Putin shows no signs he is rethinking his aims (Wall Street Journal)

• New panels produce hydrogen fuel using only water, sunlight and no electricity: This grid-independent system eliminates the need for traditional electrolyzers in green hydrogen production. A direct-solar-to-hydrogen panel design with efficiency numbers that, if they hold up at scale, would matter. Big “if” — but the field has had a quietly good year. This grid-independent system eliminates the need for traditional electrolyzers in green hydrogen production. (Interesting Engineering) see also What It Will Take to Make AI Sustainable? Researcher Sasha Luccioni argues we need better emissions data and a better sense of how people are using AI in the first place. Wired on the brute physics problem the industry is still pretending isn’t one — gigawatt clusters, cooling water, and a power grid that wasn’t built for any of this. Real numbers, no hopium.Researcher Sasha Luccioni argues we need better emissions data and a better sense of how people are using AI in the first place. (Wired)

• US science after a year of Trump: A series of graphics reveals how the Trump administration has sought historic cuts to science and the research workforce. (Nature)

Video of the day: World War II told in 20 Episodes with Tom Hanks

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Vimal Kapur, CEO and Chairman of DJIA component Honeywell International. The firm is in the midst of dividing into three companies: Honeywell Automation, Honeywell Aerospace, and Solstice Advanced Materials. The firm has fully integrated AI as the intelligence layer in all of its automation processes and products.

 

Trump’s investment accounts had a surge in activity, with more than 3,700 trades in Q1

Source: Wall Street Journal

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

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UK COVID Inquiry's Endorsement Of Censorship Sets Chilling Precedent

Authored by Molly Kingsley via DailySceptic.org,

According to the UK’s Covid Inquiry, whose fourth report was published in April, there was “in principle, nothing unlawful or inappropriate in the government monitoring publicly available social media to identify potential trends in disinformation or misinformation” during the pandemic period.

The same report, in declining to criticise the censorious activities of the UK Government during the pandemic, noted that the UK government’s Counter Disinformation Unit was required to ensure that its actions were “lawful, necessary and proportionate”.

On a careful reading of this language, the inquiry stops (just) short of expressly endorsing the full scope and extent of the government’s censorship operation.  However, the relevant sections of the inquiry’s report create the distinct, and we can assume deliberate, impression that the CDU’s censorship operation was conducted in accordance with constitutional and democratic principles, and was not only justified but was necessary and proportionate. 

As someone who was on the receiving end of that censorship operation, with the receipts to evidence the very broad scope of commentary that was judged by the CDU to be wrongful or dangerous, this came as a serious disappointment, albeit not a great surprise.

Some would argue that in a national emergency scenario, some degree of information monitoring and intervention might be justified.

The trouble with that argument is that one very quickly then has to grapple with the fact that – as we saw during the pandemic period – it’s precisely in moments of national crisis – moments where critical decisions must be made in complex situations – that contrasting views are most valuable and essential.

As Jay Bhattacharya, Acting Director of the US Centres for Disease Control, has put it: “Dissent is the very essence of science.”

In my own case, the offending posts and articles caught by the CDU were typically either opinion pieces or comments quoted in mainstream news articles. They included such outlandish and outrageous statements as, “It would be unforgivable to close schools”, “Let children use playgrounds” and “It is indefensible that children’s lives are still not back to normal when the rest of society is”. Clearly, many would now agree with these viewpoints. However, even if some, or indeed many might not have agreed with those points of view at the time, the fact that they were valid, lawfully-expressed opinions cannot be disputed.

Perhaps the CDU’s hypersensitivity would not have mattered so much if, as according to the Covid Inquiry’s account, all that was happening during that period was “monitoring” of public sentiment by the government. The inquiry’s report notes that the CDU had ‘trusted flagger’ status with all of the major social media platforms, the effect of which was that CDU flags received special attention; but the same report is at pains to record that decisions about removing or suppressing content “remained exclusively a decision for each social media platform”.

Yet a subsequent investigation by the Telegraph revealed that 90% of the posts referred to social media companies by the CDU were taken down. Indeed, evidence given to the inquiry by the former head of the CDU confirmed that when information was flagged by the CDU it “immediately goes to the top of the pile. Whoever it is in whatever company then acts on it. It is the same system they have across government for things like terrorist content.”

What makes this even worse is that the remit of the CDU went beyond anything that could reasonably be termed mis- or disinformation. In particular, we know in relation to Covid vaccine-related commentary – because a CDU official told a Parliamentary Select Committee in December 2020 – that each of the following categories of content was considered for flagging and removal as ‘anti-vaccine misinformation’:

• commentary about the speed of the development of the Covid vaccines: “It is not safe, those kinds of narratives”;

• commentary about side-effects from the Covid vaccines; and

• commentary about “monetary and big business and links to pharma”, which seems to indicate that criticism of the pharma industry and its financial influence were off limits.

All of this is in sharp contrast to events on the other side of the pond. In May 2024, a US Congressional report observed in the context of its examination of the Biden administration’s pandemic censorship operations:

“By suppressing free speech and intentionally distorting public debate in the modern town square, ideas and policies were no longer fairly tested and debated on their merits. Instead, policymakers implemented a series of public health measures that proved to be disastrous for the country.”

Free debate is one of the key measures of the health of a democracy. Without it, we lose the ability to challenge and to stress test ideas. As we saw during the pandemic, it is often when speech is most controversial that the need to hear it is greatest.

In contrast with the US where a degree of candid investigation of core pandemic failings, especially concerning the suppression of speech and social media censorship, is now taking place, our own Covid Inquiry has completely side-stepped its duty to properly interrogate serious infringements of cornerstone rights and principles of public discourse. Given the investigations going on in the US and the fact that key reports have been public for close to two years, not only is this approach wilfully blind but it is an affront to the liberal democratic ideal of free speech. It sets an appalling precedent, whereby in future public health crisis (or potentially any crisis) we can now expect broad-in-scope monitoring and narrative control of lawful, and indeed essential, contrasting views to be the norm. And, it is disingenuous. At the same time that the inquiry has defended the patent overreach of the government’s censorship operation, it has completely ignored the flagrant, extensive and devastating mis- and disinformation propagated during that same period by pharmaceutical companies, government ministers and senior public health officials who were permitted and encouraged to make statements which were manifestly inflated, exaggerated, coercive or untrue.

Official statements overstating the safety and efficacy of the Covid vaccine programme, particularly when combined with coercive policies affecting children, are blatant examples of dangerous misinformation.

Each of the major vaccine manufacturers has now been found guilty by the UK regulator, many on repeated occasions, for the persistent overstating of benefit and understating of harm in relation to their Covid vaccine products. And yet the inquiry’s report is completely silent on this topic.

Unfortunately the end result, as predicted by many Daily Sceptic readers, is a shameful whitewash that will only further corrode trust in public health.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 06:30

Korean Bubble Mania: Retail Investors Max Out On Margin Debt, Choose To "Risk Complete Collapse" Than Miss Stock Rally

For many years, Koreans were bitcoin's best friend.

After bitcoin emerged about a decade ago as the asset class with the most pronounced momentum - both to the upside and the downside - Korea's daytrading army, famous for being totally unable to do any fundamental valuation analysis but legendary for its wilnningness to piggyback on any momentum with suicidal leverage, became enamored with bitcoin and the result were face-ripping meltups and heartstopping crashes, a daily breathless rollercoaster where 10% moves in hours if not minutes had become the norm. 

But then, last September something snapped. After bitcoin had tracked Korea's Kospi index closely for years, the two series - formerly joined at the hips for years - diverged and went their separate ways, the Kospi soaring to never before seen levels, while bitcoin stagnated, shrinking ever lower as its former momentum-addicted traders abandoned it for something shinier, and with much more momentum: memory stocks.

As shown in the chart below, the Kospi-Bitcoin divergence started right around the time last September when memory stocks like Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix began what would be an absolutely historic meltup for the ages (if not so much for bitcoin). 

And while we had previously showed our readers a behind the scenes peeks into Korea's crypto trading culture, nothing prepared us for what is taking place right now... because what is taking place is nothing short of absolute batshit insanity.

Consider this: a single post uploaded May 8 by a Korean civil servant on Blind, the anonymous workplace community app, quickly set off a frenzy online. The post included a screenshot of his brokerage account showing he had poured a staggering 2.3 billion won ($1.7 million) into shares of semiconductor giant SK Hynix, one of the key driving forces behind Korea’s roaring stock market.

But even more striking is that the 1.7 billion won of that investment was financed through margin loans borrowed from his brokerage!

“I believe the semiconductor market will continue its upward climb through 2028, but I’m taking a more aggressive approach to grow my assets faster,” he wrote. Four days later, on May 12, he returned with an update claiming he had already locked in 267 million won in profits.

That same day, another Blind post surfaced - this time from a Seoul Metro employee in her 20s, who wrote that rather than missing out on the rally, she would “risk complete collapse,” adding that she had used 150 percent margin financing to fully leverage into stocks.

As Korea’s bull market barrels ahead, the Korea Times writes that more momentum-addicted retail investors are turning to borrowed money to magnify returns, despite huge risks of losing more than 100% of one's capital. As of Friday, outstanding margin loans used for stock purchases had ballooned to a record 36.47 trillion won, according to the Korea Financial Investment Association.

While retail investors end up with all the risk, for Korea’s securities firms, the recent retail mania and associated borrowing boom has become a lucrative windfall.

According to recent industry data, the nation’s 10 largest brokerages - Korea Investment & Securities, Mirae Asset, Samsung, Kiwoom, NH, KB, Shinhan, Hana, Meritz and Daishin - generated a combined 600 billion won in interest income from margin lending in the first quarter of this year, up 55.9% from a year earlier.

Margin loans allow investors to borrow money from brokerages to buy stocks by pledging existing assets as collateral. While this can amplify gains, it also comes with annual interest rates ranging from 7 to 9%, and if share prices fall too sharply, brokerages force-sell holdings to recover their loans.

For now, bullish sentiment shows few signs of cooling: with the benchmark KOSPI climbing from the 4,000 range late last year to surpass the historic 8,000 mark in less than half a year, many retail investors appear willing to embrace higher-risk strategies in pursuit of faster gains, similar to what happened in China during the 2015 bubble when margin debt hit daily record highs. 

Up 75% this year, the quick ascent of South Korea’s Kospi Index has largely been driven by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which accounted for more than two-thirds of the advance. The surge reflects record profits at the chipmakers, and with valuations still below regional and global peers, some investors argue the rally lacks the excesses typical of past boom-and-bust cycles.

Wall Street, of course, is more than eager to encourage reckless risk taking: in a May 10 report, JP Morgan raised its base-case KOSPI target to 9,000, with a bull-case projection of 10,000, arguing that investors should “stay positioned for further upside and not preemptively anticipate a cycle-end.”

The investment bank pointed to a “higher for longer” memory chip upcycle, fueled in large part by sustained artificial intelligence-driven demand, while also identifying brokers, insurers, holding companies and dividend-heavy sectors as major beneficiaries of the country’s broader market transformation.

Not everyone agrees.

For one, signs of froth are literally everywhere one looks. Key market measures showing uneven earnings growth, rising volatility and record margin debt are beginning to give some investors pause. “This is a party you want to enjoy while staying near the exit,” said Mo Young, a portfolio manager at RootN Global Investors in Seoul. The problem with this is that everyone thinks they can sell before everyone else does. That "strategy" always ends in tears. 

Just like in the US, Korea's market breadth shows that the rally remains highly concentrated. Just 33% of benchmark stocks are now trading above their 50-day average, down from 70% three weeks ago. Meanwhile, 2% of members - mostly memory and chip stocks - are hitting new 52-week high despite the Kospi’s successive records, which underscores the narrowness of the gains.

“In other words, buying the index is not simply buying a diversified slice of Korea; it is increasingly a concentrated bet on memory semiconductors,” said Christian Heck, a New York-based portfolio manager at First Eagle Investment Management. 

“The index itself is no longer obviously cheap, and broad exposure requires underwriting a very large semiconductor-cycle bet,” he added. “Selectivity is essential.” 

Palvir Bahia, a fund manager at Polar Capital which manages $40.5 billion said his fund is "monitoring the rising margin debt closely as the market rally has led to an increase in margin debt which heightens market volatility, particularly on down days when retail investors are forced to sell in order to maintain account balances.” 

The risk of forced retail liquidations has dragged in the chief of the country's financial watchdog who expressed concerns that retail investors could suffer losses amid increased market volatility, according to the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) on Tuesday.

During a meeting on consumer risk response a day earlier, FSS governor Lee Chan-jin said retail investors could increasingly pivot toward highly volatile, risky assets as the country is set to introduce single-stock leveraged, or inverse, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) next week.

And just in case record margin debt and historic call buying wasn't enough, the watchdog warned that the introduction of single-stock leveraged ETFs could further accelerate capital flights to high-risk financial products. Because that's just what Korea's stock bubble needs. 

A bubble which may burst any minute since cracks are starting to show in the index itself.

The Kospi dropped nearly 5% on Tuesday, the worst performer across Asia, as chip stocks tracked US peers lower amid rising bond yields. The index is now testing the ultra-steep trend line, with the 21-day moving average sitting just below current levels. As Market Ear notes, "these are short-term make-or-break levels for the AI melt-up."

 

As we have observed previously, the Kospi is basically two memory stocks, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which is why the Kospi is basically the SOX on steroids.

With everyone ignoring stocks and plowing their margin debt right into calls for leverage upon leverage, the Kospi VIX is now a broken market. The spot-up, vol-up regime which signals a "melt-up" phase driven by FOMO and extreme positioning, has been unlike anything seen before, resulting in many investors dismissing buying protection due to stratospheric vols. First, the VIX soared as stocks surged (due to call buying); now vol stays high as the KOSPI sells off. Vols at these levels are pricing around 4.5% daily index moves going forward! That's not just extreme, that's batshit insane, and virtually guarantees that all levered investors will be wiped out unless they have tons of available cash balances to absorb margin calls, which they don't. 

With Samsung and SK Hynix posting record profits, signs of froth are also  emerging in smaller stocks where earnings growth is virtually non-existant. Non-tech firms have driven just 4% of the 12-month earnings gain since September, according to William Bratton, head of cash equities research for APAC at BNP Paribas.

Valuations are particularly stretched in materials sectors, which include electric-vehicle firms, trading at nearly 60 times forward earnings. Battery maker Posco Future M Co. stands out at over 300 times, despite carrying the highest number of sell ratings on the Kospi, Bloomberg data shows.

“If there is a meaningful slowdown of inflow from retail investors or systematic traders, or if hedge funds reduce their big positions that were most profitable, the market structure could become even more fragile,” Kim added.  

And it's about to get much more fragile: as Goldman notes, foreigners have net sold the Kospi for the 9th consecutive day (and have been aggressively selling for much of 2026) with today's latest selling focused in Tech (-$3.4bn). And while local institutions were net sellers for most part of the day, they closed as small net buyers with buying concentrated in Tech (+$168mn). Meanwhile, the willing target of everyone else's distribution, retail investors, have continued to be net buyers and absorbed all of the supply from foreigners... the same retail investors who are now levered to the gills and are out of funds, so they are buying with the bank's money. 

As we pointed out a week ago, hedging Korea, and partly the broader AI mania, via EWY looked interesting. The last major upside overshoot at the start of the Iran war, eventually mean-reverted all the way back toward the 50 day moving average. Having previously outlined the EWY put spread logic, with the unwind starting to accelerate again, it's time to start thinking about rolling strikes lower to keep max optionality.

KOSPI may be turning from the leader of the AI melt-up into the market’s most important stress signal, and when it blows, millions of levered retail investors will lose everything they own, and more thanks to the magic of leverage. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 06:15

Global Rush For "Non-Red" Suicide Drones Begins As Taiwan Sees Booming Orders

Four years of war in Ukraine have rewritten how warfare is fought, accelerating the urgent need for low-cost aerial unmanned systems and ground robots. It has also prompted Taiwan to emerge as a supplier of low-cost suicide drones.

Taiwan's national news agency, the Central News Agency, reported that a Taichung-based Taiwanese drone manufacturer is now focused on producing a domestically made variant of Iran's Shahed one-way attack drone.

CNA said Carbon-Based Technology's main exports are "triangular-wing drones with a control range of over 90 km, and catapult-launched small attack drones."

CNA noted that demand for these attack drones is soaring, with "plans to expand the factory three to five times." The company is facing "production capacity" constraints due to surging orders.

"The payload can be adjusted according to mission requirements, conforming to the current global military 'asymmetric warfare' trend," CNA stated, describing CBT's suicide drones.

CNA noted, "The Russia-Ukraine war sparked a global surge in demand for "non-red" (non-Chinese) drones. This, combined with Taiwan government support, brought rapid overseas interest and orders from countries including Japan, India, and Southeast Asia." 

The acceleration of suicide drone production also comes as the possibility of a Chinese invasion remains a very real threat, drawing heavily from lessons learned in Ukraine.

The broader takeaway is that Taiwan views drone manufacturing as both a national security capability and an industrial policy to supply Western militaries.

As we have outlined before, militaries around the world are entering a major procurement cycle to stockpile low-cost one-way attack drones, as lessons from Ukraine and the Gulf region rapidly reshape modern warfare.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 05:45

Starmer Hit With Legal Threat After Barring Conservative Speakers From Entering UK For National Rally

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has been issued with a formal letter of claim after several foreign politicians, commentators, and activists were blocked from entering the United Kingdom ahead of a major rally in London last weekend.

The legal threat was announced over the weekend by Dutch commentator Eva Vlaardingerbroek, who said she and others had instructed a lawyer to act on their behalf over potentially defamatory remarks made by the prime minister last week.

“Today, Dominik Tarczyński, Don Keith, Ada Lluch, Joey Mannarino, and I have formally instructed our lawyer, Francesco Gargallo di Castel Lentini, to issue a Letter of Claim to Keir Starmer,” Vlaardingerbroek wrote on X. The lawyer mentioned is Vlaardingerbroek’s Italian husband.

Enough is enough.

Today, @D_Tarczynski, @RealDonKeith, @AdaLluch, @JoeyMannarino and I have formally instructed our lawyer, @Fr_Gargallo, to issue a Letter of Claim to @Keir_Starmer. The letter demands that he immediately retract his defamatory statements in which he labelled us… pic.twitter.com/myseUDpc8U

— Eva Vlaardingerbroek (@EvaVlaar) May 16, 2026

“The letter demands that he immediately retract his defamatory statements in which he labelled us ‘far-right agitators’ who wish to incite violence.

“Should he fail to comply, we reserve all our legal rights to pursue further action against him.”

The dispute follows a speech delivered by Starmer last Monday in which he said his government had barred what he described as “far-right agitators” from entering Britain to attend the Unite the Kingdom march organized by Tommy Robinson.

The demonstration took place in London on Saturday. Ahead of the event, those named in the letter received notices from the Home Office informing them that their U.K. Electronic Travel Authorisation (ETA) had been cancelled. The message stated that their presence in Britain was not considered “conducive to the public good.”

Among those affected was Polish MEP Dominik Tarczyński, a conservative politician and outspoken opponent of mass migration.

“This is what communism looks like in the 21st Century. I have just been denied entry to the U.K. in order to speak at the largest patriotic event in Europe,” Tarczyński wrote on social media after being refused entry.

In total, 11 people were reportedly banned from entering the U.K. to attend the rally. They included American nationals, Don Keith and Joey Mannarino, and Spanish conservative influencer Ada Lluch.

Mannarino wrote in response, “None of us want to incite violence. None of us are agitators. We are simply people who want to see Europe remain Europe, the U.K. remain the U.K., America remain America, and so on.”

The letter of claim, dated May 13, was addressed to Starmer at 10 Downing Street and described the prime minister’s remarks as “potentially defamatory, untrue and denigratory.” It said the statements had been made against private citizens, parliamentarians, and lawyers, and demanded a formal retraction.

The row also comes amid broader warnings issued ahead of those attending the London protest. The Metropolitan Police cautioned that certain placards and chants could amount to hate crimes and lead to prosecution.

Those warnings followed new guidance from the Crown Prosecution Service on acts that may be treated as stirring up hatred.

Director of Public Prosecutions Stephen Parkinson defended the guidance, saying, “This is not about restricting free speech. It is about preventing hate crime and protecting the public, particularly at a time of heightened tensions.”

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 05:00

South African Farming Crisis May Trigger Food Shortages Across The Continent

For decades South Africa has operated as the breadbasket for half of the African continent, and the vast majority of that food was grown by white farmers (Boers and Afrikaners).  In other words, the very survival of Africans has long been dependent on the hard labor of the white people they are taught to despise.

South Africa has around 142 race-based laws which largely discriminate against white citizens, especially when property, business and government office is involved.  The Expropriation Act of 2024 allows the socialist government to confiscate any land of their choosing to "redress past discriminatory laws or practices" (land owned by white citizens).  This is part of a project to "fulfill land reform goals" (transfer wealth and farming operations to black citizens). 

The problem is, when land is seized or forced into sale to black owners, farming production reportedly collapses.  That is to say, once the white farmers are gone, crop yields fail and the black owners often resell the land and leave.  In other cases, the new owners allow the land to languish, using the homes for living but never cultivating the surrounding property. 

Black South Africans own more farmland per capita than French, German and Spanish farmers combined, yet, starvation persists in the region.  Excuses as to why this is happening persist, but the fact remains that if Africa wants steady food production, they will have to rely on experienced white Afrikaners to make it happen because no one else is going to do it.

Furthermore, the government's failure to maintain basic infrastructure has forced local farmers to take on the costs in order to keep food production on track and the roads ready for freight.  

The pressure from government projects for "reparations" as well as the constant threat of violence from militant race communists targeting white farmers has made the job difficult.  Now, shortages of diesel and fertilizers caused by the Iran War are creating a perfect storm of circumstances which may cause a food crisis going into 2027.  If the shortages are not rectified, half of the African continent will be throttled by a lack domestic food supplies. 

The war is, apparently, the straw that's breaking the camel's back.  After years of the South African government sabotaging its most productive citizens and replacing them with less useful farmers, it was only a matter of time before a Black Swan event would lead to collapse.

Iran's refusal to allow safe passage of tankers from countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait is, interestingly, hurting BRICS nations far more than it is hurting the US or the west.  Around 25% of South Africa's oil supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz.  South Africa also imports around 80% of its fertilizer supplies.

The US blockade is only targeted at ships coming from Iranian ports with Iranian oil.  All other ships are allowed to pass. 

For now, the region is relatively safe from food shortages due to an unusually solid harvest in 2025, but 2027 looms and predictions are up in the air as to what will happen.  Once a planting season has passed, there is no way to make up the loss.  Foreign imports of food would be the obvious solution, but it's a costly one.  Meaning, price inflation is likely for most of Africa in 2027 and government rationing is a possibility. 

The end result will undoubtedly be blamed on the closure of the Hormuz, but South Africa's progressive policies set the stage and created the house of cards that is Africa's food supply chain.  They are completely unprepared for any significant supply shocks, and the result could be disastrous.   

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 04:15

UK Schools Push Radical Race Doctrine On Kids, Claiming Black People 'Cannot Be Racist'

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Schools in the north of England are teaching pupils that black people cannot be racist towards white people.

According to materials adopted by a group of Sheffield schools, led by Notre Dame High School, teenagers are explicitly told: “Black people can be racially prejudiced towards a white person which is wrong and totally unacceptable. However, this is not racism. Racism is racial prejudice plus power. In the UK, white people hold the cultural power.”

For children as young as 7, lessons focus on “empathy building” around “privilege,” asserting that white people are “likely to be privileged by the colour of their skin” and have a “responsibility” to reduce racism by monitoring their language, challenging friends, and reporting incidents.

Pupils told it's impossible for black people to be 'racist' to white peers https://t.co/hE74ZXEs2z

— Daily Mail (@DailyMail) May 18, 2026

Handouts for older pupils push narratives on criminal justice, claiming black people are disproportionately targeted by police due to racism, with questions guiding students toward that conclusion.

The scheme aims to “interrupt systemic racism” and promote “strong social justice values,” according to its creators.

Shadow Education Secretary Laura Trott slammed the materials, noting “It is deeply alarming that children as young as seven are being exposed to divisive identity politics in schools under the banner of ‘anti-racism education’… Labelling children by race and teaching them to focus on what divides them will only foster resentment and deepen division.”

Shadow minister Neil O’Brien called it “political indoctrination” and vowed to tackle such content.

These latest examples highlight a disturbing pattern in UK education: grooming children with critical race theory concepts, framing whiteness as inherently privileged and problematic, while shielding certain groups from accountability and cracking down on any dissent.

This comes as nurseries in Wales, funded by over £1.3 million in taxpayer money, have been urged to report “racist” incidents involving toddlers to police, turning playgrounds into surveillance hubs for the state’s anti-racism agenda.

Childcare workers are being trained to spot and log “racist incidents” by children barely out of nappies, with instructions to contact police via 999 or 101 if it could amount to a hate crime.

Funded by the Welsh Government and pushed by Diversity and Anti-Racist Professional Learning (DARPL) at Cardiff Metropolitan University, the program covers over 300 nurseries, playgroups, and childminders. It demands audits of resources for “diversity” and discussions of skin colour with toddlers to create “anti-racist” environments from the cradle.

Critics rightly point out that toddlers lack the cognitive ability to be racist, yet the state treats them as potential thought criminals.

UK schools have also pushed books telling children “there’s plenty of room” for small boat migrants, framing mass illegal immigration as something positive and inevitable.

The Green Party has also floated such extreme proposals for what to teach children, while the government urges schools to snitch on “anti-Muslim hostility” in an Orwellian surveillance push.

Counter-terror police have warned teens that sharing “funny content” could be terrorism, and a taxpayer-funded video game literally flags kids questioning mass migration as potential extremists.

Parents of a child who questioned why he had to celebrate Ramadan in school when he is not a Muslim were sent a letter informing them of the ‘racist’ incident.

British children are being conditioned to view their own heritage and skin colour as sources of guilt, accept open borders and cultural replacement without question, and self-censor any pushback—or face reports, labels, and potential police involvement.

This is not education. It is state-sponsored division and thought control, bankrolled by taxpayers under a Labour government disconnected from reality.

Parents are waking up to the grooming, and the pushback is growing. Childhood must be reclaimed from ideologues before an entire generation is lost to this divisive nonsense. Freedom of thought and equal standards for all—not racial power games—should define British values.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 03:30

NATO Scrambles Jet, Shoots Down Ukrainian Drone Over Estonia, In War First

It's being widely reported as a major "first" of the war: a NATO fighter has jet shot down what is believed to have been a stray Ukrainian drone over a Baltic country.

The incident happened over southern Estonia on Tuesday, resulting in a regular NATO patrolling unit being forces to urgently scramble a pair of F-16 fighter jets in response. After the shoot-down, Ukraine owned up to it by issuing public apology.

via Associated Press, file image

Kiev called it an "unintended incident" - but then also suggested Russia caused it by diverting the drone's path through electronic warfare. 

"We apologize to Estonia and all our Baltic friends for such unintended incidents," a Ukrainian government statement said. "We have been and remain in close cooperation through our specialized institutions to get to the heart of the matter in each case and seek ways to prevent them, including through the direct engagement of our expert groups."

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry then deflected, calling attention to Russian actions: "Moscow does this on purpose, together with intensified propaganda," it said.

Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur had earlier described that the drone's trajectory left the military with no choice: "we decided that we needed to take it down," he had earlier announced.

"Most probably, today we can say that it was a drone that was, let’s say, meant to hit Russian targets," he conceded, appearing to accept Ukraine's explanation. According to further details:

A Romanian F-16 Nato jet shot down a drone over Estonia on Tuesday in what appears to be the latest case of Russian electronic jamming diverting long-range Ukrainian drones into the alliance’s territory.

A local resident told the Estonian public broadcaster, ERR, that he had seen two fighter jets – part of a Nato force policing the skies over the Baltic states – flying in the area before a loud bang that brought the drone down. He said the drone had crashed about 30 metres from the nearest residential building.

Moscow, for its part, has been warning Baltic countries against allowing Ukraine to launch drones from their territories, or to allow their airspace to be used for such hostile attacks.

For example, Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) has freshly called out Latvia: "The primitive Russophobia of Latvia’s current rulers proved stronger than their capacity for critical thinking or their sense of self-preservation," it said in a Tuesday statement. 

However, Ukraine as well as Baltic officials have slammed the Kremlin statements as part of "yet another disinformation campaign."

The whole incident is unusual given that typically NATO jets scramble in response to Russian drones. But here we have an ally vs. ally drone shootdown, and happening in airspace which is deemed NATO's domain.

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 02:45

Nearly Half Of French Voters May Support National Rally, And Immigration Is A Major Concern

Via Remix News,

Last Friday, an Ipsos poll conducted for the Jean-Jaurès Foundation, Le Monde, and Cevipof indicated that 45 percent of French voters are now considering voting for the National Rally (RN) in the 2027 elections, meaning the anti-migration party’s candidate is favored to win the presidency.

According to Antoine Bristielle, director of the Foundation’s Opinion Observatory, the poll shows that RN “has managed to unite very different electorates around a common foundation, but that its cohesion remains fragile as soon as one moves away from this foundation.”

The Jean-Jaurès Foundation identifies four main profiles of RN voters, which can be grouped into two categories.

The “identity-based liberals” include older, politically engaged voters firmly rooted in the right, as well as the “forgotten France,” which represents “a working-class bloc, more economically vulnerable, marked by a strong sense of abandonment and combining demands for social protection with identity radicalism.”

However, the other two groups are more recent profiles, demonstrating the RN’s expansion to new voters.

The “shifting France,” representing those “less politically engaged and still uncertain,” and the “opportunistic radical right.”

This latter group of voters, seen as “more affluent, more educated, and highly politically engaged,” is, according to the report, “already largely aligned with the RN’s positions” but may have voted for other right-wing parties in the past.

Immigration, as expected, is a paramount topic for at least three of the four groups.

“There are too many immigrants in France” is confirmed by 97 percent of “forgotten France,” 99 percent of “identity-based liberals,” 43 percent of “shifting France,” and 96 percent of “opportunistic radical right.”

As to the statement, “Now, I no longer feel as at home as before,” the percentages of support were 96, 98, 72, and 94, respectively.

The full study is available here.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/20/2026 - 02:00

House Lawmaker Introduces Legislation To Expose CCP Exploitation Of Sister City Agreements

Authored by Frank Fang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A House lawmaker has introduced legislation to prevent foreign adversaries, particularly the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), from exploiting sister city partnerships and jeopardizing U.S. national security.

Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) speaks during a campaign event with Republican presidential candidate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, on Jan. 14, 2024. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), who serves on the House Judiciary Committee, introduced the Sister City Transparency Act (H.R.8833) on May 14. In a statement announcing the bill, Roy’s office said local governments across the United States maintain roughly 1,800 sister-city partnerships with foreign municipalities, including 157 with communities in China.

“America’s local communities should never be left vulnerable to foreign influence operations masquerading as cultural exchange,” Roy said in a statement on May 14.

“The Sister City Transparency Act brings much-needed oversight and accountability to these partnerships, helping ensure they serve the interests of the American people—not the strategic ambitions of the Chinese Communist Party or other foreign adversaries.”

Study on Sister City Partnerships

The legislation would direct the comptroller general—the head of the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO)—to conduct a study of sister-city partnerships with communities in countries deemed to have “significant public sector corruption,” including Russia and China, the lawmaker’s office explained. According to the language of the bill, the measure would specifically target countries that scored 45 or lower on Transparency International’s 2019 Corruption Perceptions Index.

China scored 41 in the 2019 index and 43 in the 2025 index.

The study would identify how foreign communities select U.S. communities for sister city partnerships, including whether certain economic activities or demographic factors influence those decisions; analyze the activities conducted in these partnerships and their economic and educational outcomes; review what types of information these partnerships make publicly available, including details related to contracts; and review how American communities “safeguard freedom of expression” and mitigate risks such as “foreign espionage and economic coercion” within these partnerships, according to the legislation.

Another part of the study would look into whether these partnerships involve economic arrangements that could make American communities “vulnerable to malign market practices” or educational arrangements that could “diminish the freedom of expression,” according to the legislation. Additionally, it would assess the extent of foreign access to local commercial, educational, and political institutions, and whether foreign actors could achieve “strategic objectives” contrary to U.S. economic or national security interests.

The legislation would also require a study of whether these partnerships are linked to broader foreign malign activities, such as “human rights abuses and academic and industrial espionage,” and how U.S. communities can prevent misuse of visa programs connected to them, according to the legislation.

The comptroller general would have six months to submit a report on its study to six congressional committees, including the armed services and foreign affairs committees in both chambers. The report would include findings, conclusions, recommendations, and, if necessary, a classified annex.

Concerns Over CCP Influence

“The CCP has demonstrated a pattern of exploiting international partnerships to expand influence, gather intelligence, and apply political pressure. Similar to concerns raised with Confucius Institutes, sister city relationships can create vulnerabilities for American communities, including exposure to foreign espionage, economic coercion, and ideological influence operations,” Roy’s office stated.

Similar legislation (S.1351) was introduced in the Senate in April 2025 by Sens. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.).

“Communist China is exploiting sister city partnerships to achieve its own strategic objectives, and we need to make certain we are not enabling this activity in our own communities,” Blackburn said in a statement at the time. “This legislation would shine a bright light on these partnerships to keep our enemies from furthering their own dangerous agendas.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 23:25

Why College Grads Hate AI

Authored by Adam Sharp via DailyReckoning.com,

I saw a fascinating clip on Twitter/X recently.

At the graduation ceremony for the University of Central Florida, the commencement speaker brought up AI.

“The rise of artificial intelligence is the next industrial revolution.”

BOOOOOO! HISS! The new college grads are not fans.

To understand how the public attitude toward AI has changed, watch the 1-minute video below of a commencement speech in Florida:

Gloria Caulfield, a real estate executive, was booed by the students when she mentioned AI during her commencement speech at the University of Central… pic.twitter.com/pFdeIbH2dg

— Luiza Jarovsky, PhD (@LuizaJarovsky) May 13, 2026

Source: X

Gloria Caulfield, the speaker, was shocked by the negative response.

“What happened?”, she asked in a Long Island-tinted accent.

Eventually the speaker continued:

“Only a few years ago, AI was not a factor in our lives.”

And the crowd goes wild cheering at that nostalgic thought. But then…

“And now, AI capabilities are in the palm of our hands…”

The crowd absolutely hated this line. More, louder booing and hissing. The speaker said it hesitantly. She knew it wasn’t going to go over well, based on prior reactions. If this young crowd would have had rotten vegetables handy, a volley of tomatoes and eggplant would have been launched in Gloria’s direction.

Young People (Understandably) Hate AI

Put yourselves in the shoes of a young American for a moment.

Houses are unaffordable. Rent and food are almost as bad. To have children comfortably, you’ll need to be in the upper 10% of earners (depending on the area).

You’re watching the stock market zoom ahead, but have little or none invested.

Your country is importing hundreds of thousands of foreign workers, mostly from India, to fill tech jobs. They’re willing to work 60-80 hours a week for far less pay.

And now, along come AI agents. Autonomous artificial workers who plan, complete, test, and complete complex tasks. Coding is currently the primary target, but agents will rapidly expand to every corner of the white collar world.

Ken Griffin’s Revelation

Billionaire Ken Griffin, founder of giant hedge fund Citadel, has been an AI skeptic. Up until now.

With the latest agents, his team is making a disturbing amount of progress. Ken says he went home on a recent Friday afternoon “depressed” about the societal changes these agents would bring.

An excerpt from Fortune’s reporting:

For Griffin, the most striking proof isn’t in coding or content—it’s in high-end financial research. Work that Citadel would previously have assigned to teams with master’s degrees and PhDs in finance, work that took weeks or months, is now being completed by AI agents in hours or days.

“To be blunt, work that we would usually do with people with master’s and PhDs in finance over the course of weeks or months is being done by AI agents over the course of hours or days,” Griffin said at Stanford.

We’ve entered the disruption stage now. And young people are on the front-lines. The first jobs cut were entry-level, but now AI is eating its way up the food chain.

Fortunately AI is still horrible at picking stocks and writing, which is our speciality. And honestly, I don’t see them getting significantly better anytime soon. AI models are trained on the entire internet, good, bad, and horrible. But anything is possible, and nobody is 100% safe from the coming wave.

Three Paths – Blue Collar, AI Master, or Entrepreneur

As I see it, young people today have three primary paths to choose from.

Path #1: Blue-Collar

First, they can take the blue collar route. As I’ve mentioned before, my 16-year old son will be starting an apprenticeship to become an electrician this summer. I’m proud he chose this path, and think it’s a great decision.

Opportunities for plumbers, electricians, welders, mechanics, and other blue collar workers are wide open. It will be many decades before robots replace these jobs.

And of all people, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently acknowledged this trend.

“AI gives America the opportunity to build again. Electricians, plumbers, iron workers, technicians, builders—this is your time. AI is not just creating a new computing industry, it is creating a new industrial era.”

Isn’t it fascinating that the primary beneficiary of the AI boom is touting blue collar work? There’s a good reason for it…

Path #2: AI Masters

The second path young people can choose is a bit riskier, but has a higher upside. They can attempt to become an “AI master”. After all, there will still need to be people in the loop.

We will still need people checking the code AI writes, assigning projects, and overseeing progress.

Over the past few years a saying has taken hold, and it’s worth repeating. There are a few different versions, but here’s mine: “Your job won’t necessarily be taken by AI, but it will be taken by someone using AI better than you.”

Path #3: An Entrepreneurial Boom

The third path, of course, is becoming an entrepreneur. And AI makes this easier than ever. Even non-technical people can write solid code now, so the tech part of building a business has certainly become easier.

I expect many young people will take the entrepreneurial path. They may not have much of a choice in the matter, assuming they’re determined to enter the white collar world.

I fully expect a small-mid sized business boom over coming years. And though these businesses won’t hire as many people as they used to, there will still be significant opportunities to hire smart people.

A Breaking System

For many decades, the goal of most parents was to send their kids to college so they can find a good white collar job.

This era is ending. The transition may take another few decades to complete, but we are now headed in a different direction.

The future of white collar work will look like a smaller number of “AI masters” managing fleets of AI agents.

Blue collar work is on the rise. It will become an increasingly popular option. But many people are still stuck playing the status games, where the “rules” say we must send our kids off to university. They don’t want to tell the neighbors that little Billy’s going to be a plumber. This will change rapidly if AI plays out like I expect it to.

Young people today have many things to be upset about. And they’ve thought about these issues far more deeply than we have. So consider reaching out to the young people in your life, and asking them about their plans.

If they seem confused about what to do, ask if they’ve considered a blue collar career. I’m convinced that it’s the best path for millions of young Americans.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 20:55

Multiple States Begin Ejecting Illegal Immigrants From Subsidized Healthcare

The political left often betrays their true agenda in the legislation they choose to oppose.  The SAVE Act, for example, would require proof of citizenship to vote in US elections; a law which the majority of countries around the world enforce.  It's widely supported by around 80% of the public, yet, Democrats stubbornly refuse to pass it.  

Why?  Because they know there are illegal immigrants voting in their favor, and they know that mail-in ballot fraud exists and often benefits them. 

By extension, Democrats aggressively attempted to block Trump Administration efforts to ensure that illegal immigrants could not receive healthcare subsidies.  Their argument was that "no illegals actually access those subsidies".  Of course, if this was true, then it should not matter if Trump adds such restrictions - According to Dems, nothing would change.

In reality, progressive politicians know that around 1.4 million "asylum seekers" (illegal immigrants who entered the country under Biden's open border policies and then took advantage of the system) were on the healthcare rolls at the end of 2024.  They also know that by offering welfare programs to illegals, they are buying the future loyalty of those migrants (as well as keeping them in the country to rig the census in favor of blue states).   

Today, this loophole is being rectified by a number of states that are now requiring proof of citizenship in order to qualify for public healthcare programs.  You would think this is common sense, but Democrats and some medical institutions are not happy with the changes. 

Hospitals across the state of Tennessee say they are receiving notice from the Department of Health requiring them to verify the citizenship status of everyone enrolled in public benefit programs. 

Opponents to the reforms say this includes Children’s Special Services, which provides access to care for children from birth to 21 years of age.  The process for disenrolling kids 18 to 21 has already begun, and there is a process underway to disenroll kids zero to 17. 

It is a typical Democrat tactic to target and isolate a single "vulnerable" group and use them to justify the existence of welfare benefits for all foreigners.  You don't want to steal that wheelchair away from little Pedro or snatch life saving medicine away from poor innocent Gabriela, right?  It is also the case than many of these healthcare providers stand to lose millions in government subsidized payments if migrants are kicked off the rolls. 

The propaganda is highly manipulative.  However, just a few months ago, the political left was arguing that "no undocumented immigrants" are receiving government healthcare benefits (Democrats say "undocumented" because they consider asylum seekers "documented").  Today, they are frantic over patients being checked for citizenship before receiving medical welfare.    

For now, adult applicants who can’t verify their status will be disenrolled by May 29. This comes after the Tennessee General Assembly passed a law requiring all applicants for public benefits ages 18 and older to verify they are in the U.S. legally.

At bottom, anyone regardless of citizenship is typically able to access emergency services in the US.  However, taxpayer funded care should be reserved for citizens only.  Foreigners are not entitled to taxpayer dollars; it's really that simple.  Keep in mind, this is how it works in almost every country in the world, including communist countries like China with "universal healthcare".  

A number of states are implementing or are on the path to implementing similar laws, including North Carolina, Indiana, Louisiana, Montana, Wyoming and Oklahoma.  

Ultimately, anyone who cannot afford their own healthcare should not be looking for citizenship in the US in the first place.  Becoming an American citizen is a privilege, not a handout.  

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 20:30

Sanctuary Jurisdictions Must Comply Or Face More ICE Boots On The Ground: Homan

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Sanctuary jurisdictions in the United States will see more Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) personnel on the ground if they do not allow local law enforcement to cooperate with ICE officers, border czar Tom Homan said in a May 15 interview with the Daily Signal.

Federal law enforcement agents confront anti-ICE protesters during a demonstration outside the Bishop Whipple Federal Building in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on January 15, 2026.

In the interview, Homan was specifically asked about New York. In January, the state’s governor, Kathy Hochul, proposed the Local Cops, Local Crimes Act, which bars state and local law enforcement agencies from signing or maintaining any Section 287(g) agreements with ICE.

Such agreements authorize ICE to delegate certain immigration functions to local and state officers under the agency’s oversight. Local and state officers can detain suspected illegal immigrants under the deal.

If passed, the New York bill would void all existing Section 287(g) agreements in the state. Homan said in the interview that he had talked to Hochul about the consequences.

“I said, Look, you end cooperation in the jails, we’re going to have to send more agents to do the job, because now, rather than one agent arresting one bad guy in the jail, which is safer for the agent, safer for the alien, safer for the community, of course, you’re going to release him. Now we got to send a whole team, six or seven agents, to go find him. So, it’s going to result in more agents in the community,” Homan said.

“Totally briefed on the whole thing, but she decided to go ahead and do it anyways. Well, I made a statement that we’re going to send more agents to New York. We have to, as a response to this, go arrest those public safety threats.”

When asked whether any sanctuary jurisdiction that doesn’t cooperate with ICE would face more ICE personnel on the ground, Homan replied, “Absolutely.”

The border czar said that he warned Hochul that there would be more collateral arrests if that’s the situation. For instance, if ICE were to arrest a criminal illegal alien, and the individual was with another illegal immigrant, then the second individual would be arrested as well.

Plus, Hochul’s legislation bans ICE from leasing beds from sheriffs in the state, due to which every illegal immigrant arrested has to be flown out of state for detainment. So, if New York locks ICE out of local jails for detaining illegals, “then we’ll simply fly them out,” Homan said.

Earlier this month, Hochul announced that an agreement had been reached with legislative leaders on the key priorities of the fiscal year 2027 state budget, including a provision banning state, local, and federal officials from wearing masks while on duty.

“Good luck with the law of banning masks. Federal law always trumps state and local law. And while threats are up over 8,000 percent, masks is a non-starter, so good luck enforcing that,” Homan said, regarding that provision.

New Yorkers in Danger

In a Jan. 30 statement, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which oversees ICE, warned that Hochul’s proposal barring local police departments from partnering with ICE would place New Yorkers in danger.

Between Jan. 20, 2025, and Dec. 1, 2025, New York failed to honor several ICE detainer requests that resulted in the release of 6,947 criminal illegal immigrants into the streets, the agency said in an April 16 statement.

This includes people charged with 2,509 assaults, 392 dangerous drugs offenses, 305 robberies, 300 weapons offenses, 207 sexual predatory offenses, 199 burglaries, and 29 homicides.

Meanwhile, in April, a group of lawmakers introduced the Sanctuary City Elimination Act, which aims to ensure that all federal, state, and local law enforcement officers can coordinate with ICE without fear of backlash, according to an April 16 statement from the office of Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas).

“For far too long, sanctuary cities across the nation have sidestepped federal immigration law and created safe havens for dangerous illegal aliens, putting the safety and security of Americans at risk and undermining the rule of law,” Cornyn said.

The act “would ensure local and state law enforcement coordinates with ICE officers, ban certain federal funds from going to sanctuary cities, and allow victims of criminal illegal aliens who are released from sanctuary jurisdictions and reoffend in other states to seek justice.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 20:05

IRGC Says It Foiled US Arms Shipments To 'Terror Groups' Near Border With Iraqi Kurdistan

Via The Cradle

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said in a statement on Monday that it foiled an attempt to smuggle a large shipment of US-made weapons and ammunition into the country.

"Counter-revolutionary terror groups based in north Iraq, acting on behalf of the US and Zionist regime, intended to transfer a large shipment of brand-new US weapons and ammunition into the country. They were targeted and struck in Baneh, Kurdistan Province. Large quantities of weapons and ammunition were discovered and confiscated," the statement said.

Arms seizure image circulated by IRGC in state media

The statement added that intelligence efforts are ongoing to identify and arrest all internal collaborators allegedly linked to the armed groups.

The IRGC Hamzeh Sayyed al-Shuhada Headquarters warned "all mercenary elements, their agents, and their leaders that any security-related action will be met with severe force, and … a regret inducing response."

The announcement comes as Washington has been seeking to arm separatist Iranian Kurdish groups in order to destabilize the Islamic Republic. At the start of the war, reports said that US President Donald Trump was seeking to turn Kurdish militias into a "ground force" within Iran. 

Kurdish groups opposed to the Islamic Republic denied last month US claims that Washington armed their fighters during the January 2026 unrest in Iran. 

Last week, Trump slammed Iranian Kurds for "stealing" US weapons and failing to deliver them to "protesters" and dissidents who, according to Washington, were willing to fight against Iranian forces. 

"The Kurds take, take, take," the president told reporters, adding that they "kept" the weapons and "only fight hard when they get paid."

Iranian Kurds were heavily involved in the 2022 armed riots, which broke out in Iran following the death of Mahsa Amini. Former US national security advisor John Bolton openly admitted that year that weapons from the Iraqi Kurdistan region were being smuggled into Iran for separatists to use against government troops.

President Trump on being 'disappointed' in the Kurds...

#Trump on #Kurds and his order to attack #Iran:

I'm very disappointed in the Kurds, we gave them weapons to deliver inside Iran, but they kept them instead. pic.twitter.com/lknQd6AOrr

— Mina (@Mina696645851) May 12, 2026

Kurdish groups also participated in this year's unrest in January, during which thousands of people were killed, including security forces, armed anti-government rioters, and civilians. 

After the US-Israeli war erupted in February, Iraqi-based, Iranian Kurdish militias came under heavy missile and drone attacks – from both Tehran and its allies in the Iraqi resistance. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 19:40

"A Breakthrough": White House Says Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Announcement Is Imminent

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com,

The White House is on the verge of a formal announcement on the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve — and the official leading the charge says the hard part is done.

Patrick Witt, Executive Director of the President’s Council of Advisors for Digital Assets, told an interviewer this week that the administration has cleared a major legal hurdle in standing up the reserve. 

“We’ll have an announcement,” Witt said.

“I wish I could say more… It’s a breakthrough as far as getting everything in place, legally sound, properly safeguarding the assets.” 

The signal follows a similar declaration Witt made at the Bitcoin 2026 conference in Las Vegas, where he told the crowd an update was coming within weeks.

President Trump signed the executive order establishing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve on March 6, 2025.

Since then, Witt says his deputy Harry John has driven the interagency process: identifying what legal authorities exist, commissioning the necessary legal memos, and building a custody and reporting infrastructure across federal agencies that were designed for gold, not private keys. 

The reserve holds an estimated 328,372 BTC — roughly 1.6% of total global supply — accumulated through law enforcement seizures, including the Silk Road takedown, the 2022 Bitfinex hack recovery, and years of criminal forfeitures. 

The executive order bars the Treasury from selling a single coin.

A government bitcoin hack lit a fire for the U.S. government

Witt pointed to a breach at the U.S. Marshals Service as proof that the reserve’s security mandate is urgent. A government contractor named John Daghita allegedly stole more than $46 million in cryptocurrency from USMS custody accounts in late 2025, and the FBI arrested him in March 2026. A separate $24 million theft was traced to October 2024. 

“It’s a case in point for why it was so necessary that the president established the SBR,” Witt said.

An executive order dies the moment a new president takes office. That vulnerability is the core argument for two bills now moving through Congress.

Rep. Nick Begich recently rebranded the BITCOIN Act as the American Reserves Modernization Act (ARMA), which would authorize the U.S. Treasury to purchase up to 200,000 BTC per year for five years — with holdings locked for a minimum of 20 years.

Senator Cynthia Lummis has put Congress on a deadline, pushing for a vote before the summer recess as midterm campaigning begins to consume floor time. 

If the BITCOIN Act passes, the Treasury’s first open-market Bitcoin purchase is projected for Q4 2026 — making the U.S. the first sovereign nation to actively accumulate Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 19:15

"Need Solidarity , Not Stigma": African Officials Say US Ebola-Related Restrictions Unnecessary

The U.S. government on May 18 said it will not let people without U.S. passports enter the United States if they have been to African countries affected by, or close to, a new Ebola outbreak within the past 21 days.

As Zachary Stieber reports for The Epoch Times, the countries are Uganda, Congo, and South Sudan, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in a public health order.

The order, signed by acting CDC Director Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, suspends the right of people from those countries to enter the United States because of “the serious risk posed by the introduction of Ebola disease into the United States by covered aliens based on the emergent outbreak of Ebola disease” in Congo.

The public health order will be in effect for 30 days, according to the CDC.

Federal law enables the CDC to prohibit entry by certain migrants if officials judge that barring their entry will prevent the “introduction, transmission, or spread of communicable diseases from foreign countries.”

U.S. officials also said they are going to step up public health screening and monitoring of other travelers who have arrived from areas affected by the outbreak. Screening includes identifying symptoms such as fever and analyzing possible exposure history.

“At this time, CDC assesses the immediate risk to the general U.S. public as low, but we will continue to evaluate the evolving situation and may adjust public health measures as additional information becomes available,” the public health agency said in a statement.

One American who was in Congo has tested positive for Ebola, and six others were exposed, CDC officials said in a briefing on May 18.

African officials on May 15 first confirmed the outbreak in Congo, reporting 80 confirmed and suspected deaths, and hundreds of confirmed and suspected infections.

The outbreak has since spread to Uganda, and South Sudan borders the region in Congo where many of the cases have been recorded.

The World Health Organization has declared a public health emergency of international concern over the situation, in part because the organization said there were “significant uncertainties to the true number of infected persons and geographic spread associated with this event at the present time.”

The virus behind the outbreak, the Bundibugyo virus, has no vaccine or specific treatment.

Dr. Satish Pillai, the CDC’s manager for Ebola response, told reporters on a call on May 18 that the outbreak is “a highly fluid situation” and that the CDC’s response includes deploying experts to the region as well as helping authorities in Africa attempt to prevent further infections and trace contacts of confirmed cases.

African Officials Say US Ebola-Related Restrictions Unnecessary

Stieber goes to report that African officials said on May 19 that travel restrictions imposed by the U.S. government over fears that Ebola could enter the United States are unnecessary and counterproductive.

The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention said “travel restrictions and border closures are not the solution to outbreaks” and called on countries to refrain from imposing such restrictions.

“The world must avoid repeating the mistakes of previous health emergencies, where fear-driven measures caused major economic damage without delivering proportionate public health benefits,” the public health agency said.

“Africa needs solidarity, not stigma. Africa needs investment, not isolation. Africa needs partnerships that strengthen both economies and health systems. No one is safe until Africa is safe.”

U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters at an unrelated event on Monday that he was concerned about Ebola.

Heidi Overton, deputy director of the White House Domestic Policy Council, said during the event that there are “no cases of Ebola in America.”

“We want to keep it that way, and we are doing everything we can to support Americans in the region,” she added.

Congolese authorities said on Tuesday that there are more than 130 suspected deaths and more than 500 suspected cases linked to the outbreak.

The organization said that international officials should improve communication on risk, invest more in surveillance and infection prevention, accelerate the development of vaccines, and expand laboratory testing for the Bundibugyo virus.

Case fatality rates from past outbreaks caused by the virus have ranged from 30 percent to 50 percent, according to the World Health Organization.

“In the absence of a vaccine, there are many other measures countries can take to stop the spread of the virus and save lives, even without medical countermeasures, including risk communication and community engagement,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the organization, told the 79th World Health Assembly in Geneva, Switzerland, on Tuesday.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 18:50

Americans Are Getting Behind On Their Debts At A Very Frightening Pace

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

U.S. households are now 18.79 trillion dollars in debt. In 1980, U.S. households were just 1.4 trillion dollars in debt. Over the past several decades we have witnessed a household debt binge that is unlike anything that we have ever witnessed in our entire history. But if consumers could handle that debt load, there wouldn’t be such a high level of concern. Unfortunately, just like we witnessed prior to the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009, Americans are getting behind on their debts at a staggering rate. This isn’t going to end well, but of course many of you know that already.

The latest numbers published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York show that delinquency rates for auto loans, student loans and credit card debt have all soared to very alarming levels…

Today, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) published new data showing that the share of Americans behind on a range of household consumer debts reached all-time highs in the first quarter of 2026. As the nation hurdles toward an historical record of $19 trillion in total household debt, Americans saw the highest rates of auto loan delinquency that FRBNY has ever recorded, rates of credit card delinquency near those last seen at the height of the 2008 financial crisis, and student loan delinquency at its worst since before the COVID-era payment pause.

Thanks to our accelerating cost of living crisis, most U.S. households are barely scraping by from month to month these days.

So if you are feeling financially squeezed right now, I want you to know that you are not alone.

As financial pressure rises, an increasing number of households are reaching a breaking point.

As a result, we are beginning to witness a tsunami of delinquencies…

While families took on more debt, they also fell behind. Credit card delinquency rates are now the highest they have been in 16 years (13.1 percent). Overall student loan delinquency rates soared to 10.3 percent, the highest recorded since 2020. Significantly more student loan borrowers are also entering serious delinquency, with their loans more than 90 days past due (10.9 percent) compared to the first quarter of 2025 (8.0 percent). In fact, delinquency rates have increased for all credit types tracked by the FRBNY since the final quarter of 2025.

Those figures are deeply troubling.

And I haven’t even mentioned mortgages yet.

In April, there were more than 42,000 foreclosure filings…

New data released by real estate analytics firm ATTOM found that 42,430 properties nationwide received foreclosure filings in April 2026, including default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions.

Is that a high number?

Yes, it is.

In fact, it is 18 percent higher than last year’s very high figure for the month of April…

Foreclosure filings across the US have surged 18 percent compared to last year in a troubling sign that mounting financial pressure is beginning to hit homeowners.

It is a red flag that is reminiscent of the foreclosure spike in the run up to the 2008 Great Recession – that financial pressure is mounting for thousands of families.

Many of you clearly remember that we experienced a growing wave of foreclosures well before the financial markets started to crash in late 2008.

It was obvious that the housing bubble was crashing way in advance, and we can see the same thing happening again.

In Seattle, the number of homes listed for sale is nearly twice the usual figure, and prices are beginning to fall…

There are 8,630 homes listed for sale across the Seattle metro right now. In a normal April, there are about 4,600.

Nick Gerli, CEO of the real estate analytics firm Reventure, posted that data on Sunday on X. His read: Seattle’s housing market is going through a historic inventory shock, driven by layoffs, historic unaffordability, and outbound migration. King County values are already down 2.5% year over year. Prices are falling, and a typical listing is still right around $1 million, with a monthly mortgage payment of $7,000 to $8,000. That’s $84,000 to $96,000 a year just on the mortgage. The median household income across the Seattle metro is about $112,000 before taxes. After federal and state deductions, that household is taking home somewhere around $85,000 to $90,000. The mortgage alone consumes virtually all of it.

The market is cracking. Regular people still can’t afford to buy.

Yes, the market in Seattle is most definitely cracking.

And the same thing could be said about dozens of other markets all over the nation.

It is inevitable that home prices will fall because we have reached a point where most of the population simply cannot afford a typical mortgage payment.

In our “K-shaped economy”, those at the very top have been thriving while the vast majority of the country has been deeply struggling.

Sadly, there are a lot of young adults out there that have simply stopped trying.

This is particularly true for young men, and the numbers clearly show that millions upon millions of them have chosen to drop out of the labor force…

The Department of Labor keeps careful track of employment and the demographics thereof. Their latest report on men in the labor force is both mysterious and deeply alarming. It turns out that the labor force is missing about 7 million men who would otherwise be working. Close to a third of working-age men have vanished from the labor force.

The labor force participation rate among “prime age men,” age 25 to 54, in the 1950s approached 100 percent. Now it is 89 percent, meaning roughly 11 percent are not in the labor force (neither working nor looking for work).

Among all men over 16 years of age, the rate is a devastatingly low 66 percent, so about one-third are gone. Among U.S.-born men, nearly 22 percent are gone.

This is really quite shocking.

We really do have a national crisis on our hands.

The number of homeless Americans is at an all-time high.

Most of them are men.

The number of drug addicts in our country is at an all-time high.

Most of them are men.

So many people have been falling through the cracks in the system, and it seems to get worse with each passing year.

Meanwhile, an increasing number of households are falling behind on their debts and America’s middle class is steadily shrinking.

All of the long-term trends are taking us in the wrong direction, and it appears that our economic problems will only accelerate during the months ahead.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/19/2026 - 16:20