The Wrath Of Kharg

By Ben Picton, Senior Market Startegist at Rabobank

Brent crude is bid again this morning as markets digest the dump of news over the weekend relating to the Iran war. On the bullish side for crude was the US decision to bomb Iranian military assets on Kharg Island – the Persian Gulf port where up to 90% of Iranian oil exports are typically loaded onto tankers. Announcing the strikes via Truth Social, President Trump was at pains to be clear that oil infrastructure was not targeted, but the implicit threat that it could be is an unsubtle one. Trump later said that the US may conduct further strikes on the island “just for fun”. 

News also emerged over the weekend that the USS Tripoli has been redeployed from the Western Pacific to the Persian Gulf. The Tripoli is a light aircraft carrier with a complement of 2,500 marines and an F35B stealth fighter air wing. Speculation is rife that the marines could be used to secure oil infrastructure on Kharg Island, or perhaps to help clear the mountains north of the Strait of Hormuz of Iranian belligerents (the latter seems less likely). Either would be a case of ‘boots on the ground’ and interpreted as a major escalation. Iranian officials have said over the weekend that they would respond in kind to any attacks on their oil infrastructure. Indeed, there were further limited attacks on oil assets of US-aligned Gulf states over the weekend, which may explain the bid tone in Brent this morning and a lift in the forward curve since this time last week.

A bizarre intervention in the war came from Hamas, who called for Iran to cease attacks on regional neighbors. Hamas is well-known as an Iranian proxy, so there is some speculation circulating that this may be an attempt from the Iranian side to begin to engineer an off-ramp. Coupled with news last week that Iran had struck agreements with India and Bangladesh to allow crude cargoes to pass, and comments from the Iranian Foreign Minister over the weekend that the Strait was not closed to anyone other than the US, Israel and their allies, there appears to be some cautious optimism in markets this morning that glimmers of hope for an end to hostilities are emerging. AUD and NZD are both trading higher, spot gold is down to almost $5,000/oz and bitcoin is catching a bid.

However, ‘glimmers’ is the operative word. While Hamas was calling for Iran to end strikes on neighboring states the Houthis (another Iranian proxy) were giving signs that they are ready to escalate against shipping being diverted into the Red Sea to load crude cargoes at the Saudi port of Yanbu. Disruptions to Red Sea shipping – which the Houthis have proven adept at over the years – would close off the release valve of the Saudi East-West pipeline that is capable of redirecting 5-7mn bbl/day to offset the ~18-20mn bbl/day supply interruption.

There is also the fact that South Korea and Japan – both major destinations for Gulf energy cargoes – would likely be considered US allies and therefore not allowed to receive crude shipments under the terms of the Iranian toll road. Trump himself has rebuffed suggestions of a ceasefire over the weekend, saying that he is not yet ready to end the war because the terms offered by Iran are not good enough. Iranian officials deny that any terms have been offered at, beyond the US’s withdrawal from the Middle East and payment of reparations. No wonder Trump isn’t keen. Prediction markets are this morning implying odds of a ceasefire before month end of just 14%, down from 21% on Friday.

There are glimmers of hope in other areas. The Wall Street Journal is this morning reporting that the United States is set to announce the formation of an international coalition to provide naval escorts to tankers transiting Hormuz. Some commentators on X have already observed that this would run counter to Donald Trump’s recent shot at UK PM Starmer, where he said that the US doesn’t need allies who only turn up after the war is won (the British might have their own thoughts on allies who arrive late to wars). Nevertheless, there does seem to be a plan developing, though both South Korea and Japan have signalled caution about deploying warships to the Gulf as China resumes military exercises around Taiwan after a 10-day hiatus.

Speaking of China, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are currently meeting with Chinese officials, including Vice Premier He Lifeng, in Paris to discuss trade. The talks come ahead of a much anticipated Trump-Xi summit in Beijing on March 31st and are expected to lay the groundwork for that meeting. Early reports suggest that the American side asked China to buy more Boeing aircraft, and US coal and gas. With Qatari liquified natural gas exports currently out of the market, and the Chinese economy approximately 50% dependent on imports for its domestic needs, it should be an easy sell. Japan’s Industry Minister has also recently reached out to Australia to urge a ramping up of LNG production, though this will take time and is sure to face opposition from environmentalists in Australia.

The timing of the Trump-Xi meeting is interesting. Trump will be headed to Beijing with Chinese influence having recently been ejected by America power in Venezuela, Cuba and the Panama Canal. The strikes on Kharg Island – which is the main port of origin for a large slice of China’s oil imports – also raises the prospect of Chinese influence in central Asia being severely curtailed. The US is a mostly self-sufficient net energy exporter who suddenly occupies several key maritime chokepoints for Chinese energy imports. The message to Beijing couldn’t be more clear: if you attempt to leverage rare earth supply chains against US interests, the US will leverage energy supply chains against Chinese interests. Regular readers would be aware that we have argued the logic of this for the last 18 months.

So, again we see that economic statecraft is employed to create supply chain pressure to get what you want. To appreciate this disruptive power fully, it must be recognised that the Iran crisis goes far beyond energy and the supply shock will reverberate through everything from petrochemicals, to agriculture to pharmaceuticals and beyond. China’s industrial dominance therefore becomes an Achilles heel in a global economic shock. For a comprehensive accounting of the likely impacts, see this excellent piece produced by the RaboResearch Food and Agribusiness team.

Trump wants Hormuz open again. Xi wants guarantees that Gulf oil will continue to flow to Chinese refineries, Chinese industrial producers will have markets to sell to, and Chinese consumers will have food to import. Trump thinks he has the upper hand in this negotiation and so on Sunday night he told media that he could seek to delay the Beijing summit and that he expected China to help open the Strait of Hormuz. He is playing hard to get, and trying to put all of the pressure on Xi to force a resolution. To paraphrase Nixon’s Treasury Secretary John Connally: “it’s our war, but it’s your problem.”

So, could the upcoming summit be the moment where we see Beijing issue the directive to its allies in Tehran to end the blockade? For Xi it may be a choice between that, or suffering the wrath of Kharg on the Chinese industrial economy.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 10:45

Nano Nuclear Progresses HALEU Transport Package

Nano Nuclear released a notable update this morning for achieving conceptual design milestones on its proprietary, optimized High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU) transportation package, developed in partnership with German nuclear logistics heavyweight GNS.

Through subsidiary Advanced Fuel Transportation (AFT), the company has nailed down two optimized payload baskets capable of hauling multiple advanced fuel forms including uranium oxide, TRISO, uranium-zirconium hydride, uranium mononitride, and even molten salt reactor fuel. All of it was run through an NRC Quality Assurance program, with initial analyses indicating full regulatory compliance. Next up is full regulatory engagement and certification.

The tech builds on Nano’s exclusive license for a high-capacity basket originally designed by Idaho National Lab. Jay Yu, founder and chairman, called it “an important step toward building the infrastructure needed to support the deployment of advanced reactors”.

As we covered last year, Nano broke ground on its Kronos microreactor facility at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, complete with state backing and a manufacturing/R&D site announcement from Governor Pritzker. We followed up with coverage of their engineering firm partnerships and the founder’s Shawn Ryan Show appearance touting laser enrichment ambitions. The Illinois project has been the headline (and only) act, until now.

It’s a mild surprise: while the reactor side hogs the press and investor imagination, the transport business segment has been making tangible development progress. In an industry starved for HALEU shipping solutions, this could become a revenue driver years before any microreactor fires up commercially.

Nano’s vertical-integration bet with enrichment, fuel fab, transport, and reactors, looks a touch less aspirational today.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 10:20

BYD Shares Soar Most In 13 Months As Chinese EV Push Into Americas Accelerates

Shares of Chinese EV maker BYD surged the most in 13 months after a report that its factory in Bahia, Brazil, a former Ford Motor plant, secured export orders for about 100,000 vehicles from Argentina and Mexico. This development suggests BYD's strategy to localize production in South America is still in its early stages and set to flood the continent with Chinese EVs.  

Bloomberg quoted Macquarie Capital analyst Eugene Hsiao, who said the local Chinese media report about BYD's Brazil factory receiving large orders from Argentina and Mexico suggests that "this is positive for the broader BYD thesis, which is that overseas sales will become the core growth and profit driver over time."

Brazil is BYD's largest market outside China. The factory in Bahia is critical to the Chinese company's overseas expansion plans in the Americas. The plant has a capacity to make 150,000 EVs per year.

In BYD's home market of China, overall sales for the first two months of the year slumped 36% to 400,241 units. Competition in China has intensified as rivalry among domestic brands grows fiercer. However, exports have gained solid traction, with the company now planning to sell 1.3 million cars abroad.

"A higher gas price would potentially drive demand in the European market, which would benefit Chinese automakers that export to that market such as BYD," Morningstar analyst Vincent Sun said, adding, "For Chinese market, gas bill is not as big a driver to EV demand as in overseas market."

BYD shares in Hong Kong surged 8% on Monday, marking the largest gain in 13 months, as news of overseas expansion lifted investor sentiment.

The stock was a top performer on the Hang Seng Tech Index, with trading volume doubling to 35.7 million shares. Peers including Nio and Xiaomi climbed more than 5%.

Top BYD headlines (courtsey of Bloomberg):

• The Brazil plant has annual capacity of 150,000 vehicles and will increase production to 600,000 vehicles in phases

• BYD will launch the premium Denza Z9GT electric vehicle in Europe on April 8, offering up to 800 kilometers range

• The new vehicle can charge from 10% to 70% in about five minutes using BYD's latest fast-charging system

• BYD unveiled its second-generation Blade Battery on March 9, promising to charge EVs from 10% to 97% in under nine minutes

• BYD is exploring entry into Formula 1 and endurance racing to boost global brand appeal

• BYD is actively considering building a manufacturing plant in Canada and keeping options open to acquire a global automaker

For readers heading to Mexico for spring break, one of the first things you may notice after stepping outside the airport terminal is how many BYD vehicles are already on the road. The flood of Chinese EVs is shifting into hyperdrive, and in the Americas, the invasion is already underway.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 10:00

Key Events This Week: Central Banks Galore, PPI, And The War In Iran

After Friday's revelation that it was the first consecutive monthly Friday 13th for 11 years, DB's Jim Reid writes that today's nearly-as-impressive revelation is that this week sees the Fed, ECB, BoJ and BoE all meet in a single calendar week for the first time since December 2021. So a "super week" for central banks. All of them will have a very complex backdrop to deal with, shaped by geopolitical risk, volatile energy prices, and unsettled inflation dynamics.

Clearly the Middle East is the center of attention for markets right now, with oil prices fluctuating rapidly depending on the mood of the moment, which in turn is set by rapid burst headlines which are stale by the time the next flashing red headline hits. And since every asset class now reacts to any up or down tick in oil, it leads to cross-asset chaos, to say the least. The bigger problem, of course, is that the longer the conflict lasts, and the higher oil prices rise, the more hawkish central banks will have to be no matter the AI-driven bloodbath in the labor market. 

Indeed, while the Iran war is set to dominate the week ahead, we do still have those four big central bank meetings, where all eyes will be on their reaction functions to the war’s impact and the latest oil shock. Starting with the Fed, DB economists expect them to keep rates unchanged this week and think they’ll emphasize elevated geopolitical uncertainty. They only expect minor statement tweaks, including smoothed language on recent labor data (especially given January and February’s conflicting payrolls) and a nod to geopolitical risks, highlighting uncertainty and near-term upside pressure on inflation. Then at the press conference, they think Chair Powell is likely to stress that recent events mainly transmit through financial conditions—particularly oil prices. For now, however, economists think he’ll avoid signalling any meaningful shift in the near term policy outlook.

For the Fed, an important consequence of the conflict is that higher energy prices have begun to feed into inflation assumptions. So DB's economists have nudged up their headline inflation estimates for this year, and they expect Fed officials to reflect a similar adjustment when they publish their updated Summary of Economic Projections. Indeed, core PCE inflation has registered back-to-back 0.4% monthly increases now, pushing the year-on-year rate to 3.1%, the highest since early 2024. For the dot plot, economists are still expecting it to signal one rate cut this year, although it wouldn’t take much to shift the median dot for 2026. Clearly though, the outlook is going to remain heavily dependent on the oil price. For example, our economists have found that a sustained oil price around $100/bbl would still see the projected tax benefits to consumers from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act outweigh the drag from higher effective energy costs. However, a move toward $150/bbl would pose a more material risk to consumer spending and the broader outlook.

Beyond the Fed, this week’s incoming data is unlikely to materially alter the tone of the meeting. February’s industrial production today is expected to rise by 0.3%, slower than January's 0.7%, largely due to softer utility output, though oil and gas extraction will be worth monitoring. Otherwise, the regional manufacturing surveys from New York and Philadelphia could reflect some drag from geopolitical uncertainty, with particular attention on capital spending components. And given the recent labor market volatility, Thursday’s initial jobless claims will take on added importance as they fall within the March employment survey window.

Away from the US, this Thursday will bring the ECB, BoE and BoJ meetings, with DB economists expecting all three to leave rates on hold, with the emphasis firmly on guidance rather than action. At the ECB, expect the Governing Council to acknowledge heightened uncertainty and near-term upside risks to inflation, while stopping short of explicitly flagging medium term risks. Also expect a strong reiteration of policy flexibility and a clear message underscoring the ECB’s unwavering commitment to price stability, with officials keen to signal that they stand ready to act to avoid a repeat of the 2022–23 inflation episode. 

Then in the UK, DB thinks the MPC will lean into a dovish wait and see stance amid a more clouded outlook following the Iran related energy shock. Expect a less divided vote than in February, with the majority favoring an unchanged Bank Rate, while two members continue to favor a cut. Although DB economists still sees two rate cuts this year, recent developments have pushed back the expected timing.

Over in Japan, the BoJ is expected to maintain its current stance, with attention focused on Governor Ueda’s press conference. While underlying fundamentals could justify an early hike, elevated oil prices and growth risks are likely to temper near term action, and sustained crude prices above $100/bbl would reduce the likelihood of an April move. Meanwhile, other central banks making decisions this week include the RBA (Tuesday; expect a hike), the BoC (Wednesday), the SNB and the Riksbank (Thursday). The latter three are widely expected to see no change in rates.

Finally this week, notable data includes Germany’s Zew survey for March tomorrow and UK labor market data due Thursday. In the geopolitical sphere, President Trump and Japanese PM Takaichi are meeting in Washington, with defence cooperation expected to be the primary topic (see more in our Chief Japan economist’s week ahead here). In Europe, this week’s events include an EU leaders’ summit (Thursday to Friday). And on earnings, the lineup includes Micron, FedEx and Lululemon in the US as well as Tencent and Alibaba in China. See the day-by-day calendar of events at the end as usual for more.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday March 16

• Data: US March Empire manufacturing index, NAHB housing market index, February industrial production, capacity utilisation, China February retail sales, industrial production, home prices, investment, Italy January general government debt, Canada February CPI, housing starts
• Earnings: Standard Life
• Other: EU foreign affairs council meeting

Tuesday March 17

• Data: US March New York Fed services business activity, February leading index, pending home sales, Germany March Zew survey, Eurozone March Zew survey, Canada February existing home sales
• Central banks: RBA decision
• Earnings: Lululemon, Oklo
• Auctions: US 20-yr Bond (reopening, $13bn)

Wednesday March 18

• Data: US February PPI, January factory orders, total net TIC flows, Japan January Tertiary industry index, February trade balance, Canada January international securities transactions
• Central banks: Fed decision, BoC decision
• Earnings: Tencent, Micron

Thursday March 19

• Data: US March Philadelphia Fed business outlook, January new home sales, wholesale trade sales, initial jobless claims, UK January average weekly earnings, unemployment rate, February jobless claims change, Japan January core machine orders, capacity utilisation, Eurozone January construction output, Q4 labour costs, Australia February labour force survey
• Central banks: rate decisions from the ECB, the BoJ, the BoE, the SNB and the Riksbank
• Earnings: Alibaba, Accenture, Enel, FedEx, Vonovia
• Auctions: US 10-yr TIPS (reopening, $19bn)
• Other: Leaders of US and Japan meet in Washington, European Council meeting (through Friday)

Friday March 20

• Data: UK February public finances, Germany February PPI, Italy January trade balance, current account balance, ECB January current account, Eurozone January trade balance, Canada January retail sales, February industrial product price index, raw materials price index
• Central banks: China 1-yr and 5-yr loan prime rates, ECB’s Nagel speaks

* * * 

Finally, looking at just the US, the key economic data release this week is the PPI report on Wednesday. The March FOMC meeting is on Wednesday. The post-meeting statement will be released at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM.

Monday, March 16 

• 08:30 AM Empire State manufacturing survey, March (consensus +3.9, last +7.1)
• 09:15 AM Industrial production, February (GS flat, consensus +0.1%, last +0.7%); Manufacturing production, February (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.6%); Capacity utilization, February (GS 76.1%, consensus 76.2%, last 76.2%): We estimate industrial production was unchanged in February, reflecting strong auto production but weak electricity production. We estimate capacity utilization edged down to 76.1%.
• 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, March (consensus 37, last 36)

Tuesday, March 17

• 10:00 AM Pending home sales, February (GS flat, consensus -0.7%, last -0.8%)

Wednesday, March 18 

• 08:30 AM PPI final demand, February (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.5%); PPI ex-food and energy, February (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.8%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, February (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); 10:00 AM Factory orders, January (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.1%, last -0.7%) : We forecast that factory orders increased by 0.1% in January, driven by a rebound in commercial aircraft orders.
• 02:00 PM FOMC statement, March 17-18 meeting: As discussed in our FOMC preview, we expect the FOMC to leave the funds rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75%. We expect Governors Bowman, Miran and Waller to dissent in favor of a 25bp cut. The Committee is likely to note in its statement that the war in Iran has increased uncertainty about the outlook and will likely raise inflation and weigh on economic activity in the near term. The Summary of Economic Projections is likely to show changes to the 2026 forecasts in line with our own, including higher core (+0.2pp to 2.7% Q4/Q4) and headline (+0.6pp to 3.0%) inflation, lower GDP growth (-0.2pp to 2.1%), and a higher unemployment rate (+0.2pp to 4.6%). We expect little change in the dot plot, where the median is likely to continue to show one cut in each of 2026 and 2027. We recently pushed the two additional rate cuts in our forecast back to September and December. 

Thursday, March 19 

• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended March 14 (GS 210k, consensus 215k, last 213k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended March 7 (consensus 1,850k, last 1,850k): We expect initial jobless claims to decline by 3k. Initial claims remain below their average level in 2025H2 and the layoff rate edged down in January, suggesting that nationwide layoffs remain low despite the increase in alternative layoff measures in Q4 of last year. 
• 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, March (GS 7.0, consensus 10.0, last 16.3)
• 10:00 AM New home sales, January (GS -2.0%, consensus -2.7%, last -1.7%): We estimate that new home sales fell by 2.0% in January, reflecting a drag from winter storm Fern.

 
Friday, March 20 

• There are no major data releases scheduled.

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 09:50

Israel Expects Iran War To Continue At Least Into April, Lebanon Conflict Longer

The White House has struggled to present the American public and the world with a clear timeline or precise strategy on Operation Epic Fury, but Israel has seemed clearer on signaling it is settling in for a longer war.

Israel is bracing for its war with Iran to stretch well into April, even as officials quietly concede the government in Tehran is unlikely to collapse, according to Israeli media.

Damage from the June war which lasted 12 days, in Bnei Brak, Israel. via Reuters.

This has Israel has expanded its attacks not just to Iran's oil and energy sites, but more broadly to its defense industrial sector, wanting to see even Tehran's ability to manufacture new missiles utterly destroyed.

And according to Ynet, "At the same time, the idea of encouraging public unrest inside Iran has not been abandoned, though officials acknowledge uncertainty about how effective such efforts might be."

"We continue to strike regime targets, mainly in Tehran. We are entering the decisive phase. We are aiming to bring the people out into the streets. It’s not only us - the Americans are also working toward that," an Israeli official stated.

"Not everything can be controlled, but everything possible is being done to make it succeed. The regime must be weakened as much as possible, including the Basij," the official added. "We are striking them and killing them in the thousands."

Israeli officials have further made clear they have assets on the ground, or Iranians who have helped spot IRGC/Basij checkpoint and security locations. Israel's military has publicized some instances of active strikes on these locations.

As for whether targeting information is actually being communicated by anti-regime Iranians, this could just be Israeli propaganda intent on sowing discord and suspicions among the Iranian populace.

Still, Israeli officials have admitted they are skeptical that street protests alone could topple the Iranian government. Over in Washington, President Trump apparently thought 'decapitation strikes' would quickly result in some kind of rapid uprising in the streets and change of government, but that didn't appear even close to happening.

On the White House's series of miscalculation as this war is in week three with no signs of an off-ramp, Robert D. Kaplan has written in Foreign Affairs:

The biggest U.S. foreign policy fiascos happened because policymakers were obsessed with regional and global consequences they often could not properly manage, and thus ignored critical conditions on the ground. In Vietnam, U.S. leaders overlooked the history and nature of Vietnamese nationalism; in Iraq, it was sectarianism. Tuchman has encouraged leaders to trust area specialists more than grand strategists or democracy promoters. Sophisticated and specific cultural knowledge, she has observed, is much more useful than metrics and shadowy schemes.

Middle-sized wars often stem from misunderstandings about the place intervention is meant to help. The key, then, is for the intervening country to know what it is getting itself into. This may seem easy, but it can be the hardest part of policymaking. Bringing up cultural matters and differences is tricky because it can easily be misconstrued as prejudice, which pushes people to avoid critical conversations about realities on the ground. But it is such discussions that can keep a superpower out of trouble.

Meanwhile, as far as a timeline, Israeli leaders have admitted that it's renewed war with Hezbollah is expected to outlast the conflict with Iran. Hezbollah has been launching missiles on northern Israel, while IDF ground forces have moved in, also as Beirut continues to get pounded from the air.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 09:45

Florida Passes Voter ID Bill Modeled After SAVE Act

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

The Florida Legislature passed new election legislation modeled after President Donald Trump’s proposed SAVE America Act.

House Bill 991, sponsored by state Rep. Jenna Persons-Mulicka, passed along party lines by a vote of 83 to 31.

“We are the Election Integrity State!” Persons-Mulicka wrote on X after the vote.

Sponsors of the bill moved the effective date to appease critics who feared the new identification requirements would discourage some voters from participating in midterm elections. The new laws won’t take effect until Jan. 1, 2027.

The bill requires Floridians to show proof of citizenship to register to vote, requires a valid photo ID to vote, makes paper ballots the primary method of voting, and bans student IDs as an acceptable voter ID.

Nearly all Florida driver’s licenses and ID cards are Real-ID compliant—a process that already verifies citizenship.

Once in place, the new regulations will also make it a felony for political parties, committees, organizations, and candidates to accept or solicit contributions from foreign nationals for any state elections.

Florida state Democrats voted against the bill, dubbing it the “Show Your Papers Act.”

Rep. Anna Eskamani, a Democrat representing Orlando, said the measure would restrict “all kinds of IDs Florida voters can use.”

“Student IDs and retirement center IDs would no longer be valid; driver’s licenses, state ID cards, military ID, and licenses to carry concealed weapons would still be accepted as proof of voter identity,” Eskamani said in a Facebook post.

The ACLU’s Florida Chapter condemned the measure’s passage, calling it an anti-voter bill.

“These changes are not neutral or harmless—they would fall hardest on low-income voters, students, seniors, women, and Black and brown Floridians,” said Bacardi Jackson, executive director of the ACLU Florida chapter.

"This wave of anti-voter legislation is advancing amid ongoing abuses of power that pose unprecedented threats to American democracy.”

 

Florida State Rep. Jenna Persons-Mulicka, R-Fort Myers. Courtesy of the Florida House of Representatives

A similar effort by congressional Republicans has stalled for months in the U.S. Senate.

Florida Secretary of State Cord Byrd encouraged Congress to move forward with the SAVE Act after Florida’s bill passed.

“Florida leads the nation in election integrity because we don’t rest on our laurels and are always looking to improve,” Byrd posted on X. “It’s now time for Congress to act on critical election integrity measures.”

Republican Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has been unable to advance the SAVE Act, despite growing pressure from the public and within his party.

Thune told colleagues on March 10 that he didn’t have the votes to pass the act by employing the talking filibuster. He plans to bring the bill to the Senate floor next week.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 09:30

US Industrial Production Rises For 4th Straight Month In February

After a strong gain in January, US Industrial Production continued to expand in February, rising 0.2% MoM (better than expected +0.1%) - the fourth straight month of gains with Production up 1.44% YoY...

Source: Bloomberg

Manufacturing output also beat expectations, rising 0.2% MoM in February.

• Durable manufacturing output edged up 0.1 percent, with mixed results across categories; the index for motor vehicles and parts posted the largest gain, and the index for machinery posted the largest loss.

• Nondurable manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent, with gains in the production of chemicals, of plastic and rubber products, and of paper products outweighing declines in the output of petroleum and coal products and of food, beverage, and tobacco products. The output of other manufacturing (publishing and logging) rose 1.3 percent.

• Mining output increased 0.8 percent in February, following a 0.9 percent increase in January. The output of utilities fell 0.6 percent in February, reflecting no change in the index for electric utilities and a 4.7 percent drop in the index for natural gas utilities.

Source: Bloomberg

Capacity Utilization printed 76.3 (better than expected)...

...maintaining the positive trend since Trump's second term began.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 09:23

The post Trump Agrees with Mark Carney: The Old Order is Very Dead appeared first on CEPR.

China-US Trade Talks End In Paris As Doubts Grow Over Trump-Xi Summit

Update (0911ET): 

The Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post has published an update on the sixth round of U.S.-China trade talks, which concluded moments ago in Paris.

SCMP's title for the update is rather ominous: "China and the US end trade talks as doubts form over Trump visit."

The report states that both sides discussed a possible extension of existing tariff and non-tariff measures, as well as bilateral investment.

China's top trade negotiator, Li Chenggang, said the two sides held "deep, frank, and constructive" talks and agreed to "continue to maintain the stability of tariffs."

Earlier, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC's Brian Sullivan in Paris that any delay in the Trump-Xi meeting later this month would not be due to Beijing declining to assist the U.S. in reopening the Strait of Hormuz with a naval coalition, but rather because of logistics: "If the meeting, for some reason, is rescheduled, it would be rescheduled because of logistics."

"I don't think the meeting is in jeopardy, but it's quite possible the meeting could be delayed," White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told Fox News moments ago.

Leavitt said, "These are leader-to-leader conversations that are currently taking place," adding that if the trip is delayed, the White House will provide the new dates very soon.

SCMP quoted the Chinese foreign ministry as saying both sides at the negotiating table were in contact over Trump's state visit.

*   *   * 

Update (0800ET): 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent joined CNBC TV to counter narratives from U.S. MSM outlets overnight that claimed President Trump would delay the Xi summit later this month if Beijing did not help form a naval coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

"If the meetings are delayed, it wouldn't be delayed because the president demanded that China police the Strait of Hormuz," Bessent told CNBC's Brian Sullivan in Paris. "If the meeting, for some reason, is rescheduled, it would be rescheduled because of logistics."

Bessent headlines from the interview:

• FALSE TO SAY IF CHINA DOESN'T OPEN HORMUZ, TRIP DELAY

• US-CHINA TRADE MEETINGS IN PARIS' VERY GOOD'

• IF TRUMP DELAYS CHINA, WOULD BE DUE TO PROSECUTING WAR

• MARKETS SHOULD 'ABSOLUTELY NOT' REACT TO TRIP DELAY

It's clear that Iran-US conflict adds yet another layer of tension ahead of the Trump-Xi summit. Bessent warpped up talks in Paris with the Chinese today, with reports earlier stating potential areas of agreement in tariffs, agriculture, energy purchases, fentanyl, and Taiwan.

*   *   * 

Brent crude futures are trading around $103 a barrel early Monday morning amid U.S. strikes on Iran's Kharg Island oil export hub. Concerns about tanker congestion in the Strait of Hormuz, however, appear to be easing.

A flurry of weekend headlines suggests that the Trump administration is racing to reopen the Hormuz chokepoint and avert a further energy shock in global markets. According to a new Axios report, plans for a multinational naval coalition could be unveiled as soon as this week.

Hormuz Tanker Traffic

In a Truth Social post on Saturday, Trump said the U.S. and allied countries would send warships to the Hormuz area to reopen commercial shipping lanes. He called on China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the U.K. to help.

On board Air Force One later that day, he told reporters he "demands" that NATO countries and other nations heavily dependent on Gulf crude oil and other product imports help with the naval operation.

"We are talking to other countries about policing the straits. It will be nice to have other countries policing with us. We will help. We are getting a good response," Trump said.

In a Sunday interview with the Financial Times, the president warned that he could delay his upcoming summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping if Beijing does not participate in the naval coalition.

Trump told FT, "It's only appropriate that people who are the beneficiaries of the strait will help to make sure that nothing bad happens there."

"If there's no response or if it's a negative response, I think it will be very bad for the future of NATO," he added.

While Beijing has yet to publicly respond to Trump's request, the state-run Global Times rejected Trump's plan to spread the risk "of a war that Washington started and can't finish." GT explained on Sunday night why Beijing wouldn't join the naval coalition.

"Crowding a volatile waterway with warships from multiple nations doesn't create security. It creates flashpoints. If any single vessel were struck, the consequences could rapidly spiral beyond anyone's control," GT said. This is "more a carefully structured transfer of risk."

Bloomberg noted, "A delay to the summit could suit Beijing. China had previously proposed that Trump arrive at the end of April to allow more time for preparations, according to a person familiar with the matter," adding, "Such a postponement would allow for more discussion on security and diplomatic issues, including self-ruled Taiwan, which have so far not featured prominently on the planning agenda."

The Iran-US conflict adds yet another layer of tension ahead of the Trump-Xi summit. Both sides are expected to wrap up trade talks in Paris on Monday, with potential areas of agreement in tariffs, agriculture, energy purchases, fentanyl, and Taiwan.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 09:11

Starmer Vows UK Won't Be Drawn Into Wider War In Middle East, Hormuz Crisis 'Not A Simple Task'

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer spoke to President Trump on Sunday night, with Starmer on Monday describing that the two leaders discussed events "in the way that you would expect between two allies and two leaders" and he had a "good relationship" with the US president.

His articulation of an apparently positive and frank talk comes while he trying to dismiss suggestions the relationship with Britain's key ally had been damaged due to the Iran war.

President Trump has been very clearly making the case that European and NATO countries must back his effort to unblock global oil transit in the Strait of Hormuz

However, Starmer has made clear to his domestic population that the UK won't be dragged into a wider war with Iran, even as London tries to figure out what role in might play in any US-led Hormuz plan.

"Ultimately, we have to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to ensure stability in the (oil) market. That is not a simple task," Starmer told reporters.

"So we're working with all of our allies, including our European partners, to bring together a viable collective plan that can restore freedom of navigation in the region as quickly as possible and ease the economic impact," he added.

Below is a key line of Starmer's:

"While we are taking the necessary action to defend ourselves and our allies, we will not be drawn into the wider war," he said.

But it seems he's trying to have his cake and eat it too, acknowledging that Britain is on board with trying to piece together a multinational security effort - and yet Starmer has stressed it would not be a NATO-led mission.

According to more of his comments at a Downing street press conference:

The prime minister said the UK, which is considering sending ships and mine-hunting drones to the Middle East, was working with allies on a “viable plan” to reopen shipping lanes. Otherwise energy prices would remain high.

“It’s a discussion; we’re not at the point of decisions yet. It’s obviously a difficult question, that goes without saying, in relation to how you safeguard maritime traffic … But we are discussing that with the US, with Gulf partners and with Europeans,” he said.

He said that while the UK would take “necessary action” to defend itself and allies “we will not be drawn into the wider war”, as concern mounts at home over the prospect of a drawn-out conflict.

“I want to see an end to this war as quickly as possible, because the longer it goes on, the more dangerous the situation becomes, and the worse it is for the cost of living back here at home,” he said.

President Trump on Air Force One after he spoke to the UK's Prime Minister Keir Starmer,

"I don't want the UK after we win the war, I want them before"

"Whether we get their support or not"

"I can say this, and I said it to Keir Starmer"

"We will remember" pic.twitter.com/DUb7xxXzBM

— Farrukh (@implausibleblog) March 16, 2026

The British leader also rolled out the first domestic relief package tied to the US and Israeli-initiated war's economic fallout, announcing a £53 million ($70 million) support plan for vulnerable households that rely on heating oil after fuel prices surged.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 09:00

Allies Balk As Trump Pushes Joint Military Action To Reopen Hormuz - Iran Says No Ceasefire On Table

Summary:

• Trump declares 'victory' while simultaneously urging coalition help: President Trump claimed the US has "essentially defeated Iran" and vowed "we will finish the job," while pressing NATO allies and other countries to join a naval coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

• Iran rejects ceasefire and signals escalation: Iranian FM dismissed any truce, saying Tehran wants the war to end in a way that ensures enemies "never again think of repeating these attacks," adding Iran has "sent no messages and do not request a ceasefire."

• US weighing major escalation at Kharg Island: The White House is considering seizing Iran’s main oil export hub on Kharg Island, a move that would require US boots on the ground.

• Europe reluctant to join Hormuz operation, Germany outright rejects it alongside Italy and Greece: Trump warned of a "very bad" future for NATO if allies don't help reopen the strait. UK also says it won't be 'NATO-led'.

• Regional attacks and oil shock intensify: Iran continues missile and drone strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure and US-aligned states, while Israeli forces launched "wide-scale" strikes. Saudi Arabia, Dubai continue to get hit.

* * *

President Trump and his top officials spent the weekend on the one hand touting the Iran campaign a decisive military win and supposed success, while on the other racing to assemble a naval coalition to force open Tehran's chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, all the while imploring other countries for help. Europe appears deeply reluctant, with some key NATO countries already slamming the door on this prospect.

"As far as I’m concerned, we have essentially defeated Iran," President Trump said in some of latest remarks aboard Air Force One. "They want to negotiate badly, as they should, but I don't think they're ready to do what they have to do... We will finish the job," he claimed.

But then on Monday Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi rejected calls for a ceasefire, insisting Tehran intends to impose steep and bloody costs on the aggressors. "The reason we say we do not want a ceasefire is not because we are seeking war, but because this time this war must end in such a way that our enemies never again think of repeating these attacks," Araghchi said at a press conference.

Site of airstrikes on an oil depot in Tehran, AFP/Getty Images

"I think they have already learned a good lesson and understood what kind of nation they are dealing with." He also dismissed reports that Iran had quietly sought negotiations: "As we have said many times and I reiterated last night in an interview with an American network, we have sent no messages and do not request a ceasefire."

Still, Trump is pressing forward on plans for NATO to send allied ships. According to US officials cited in The Wall Street Journal, there are plans for as soon as this week to announce that multiple countries have agreed to join a coalition escorting ships through the strait. All of this, and especially a timeline, still seems up in the air.

And separately per Axios, the White House is simultaneously considering the far more aggressive option of seizing Iran's main oil export hub on Kharg Island, after much of it has been subject of heavy US bombing, which started overnight Friday, but reportedly left oil terminals and vital export infrastructure in place.

There remains widespread speculation that this is what the multi-thousand strong Marine Expeditionary Force currently en route is all about, raising the states even higher. A direct Kharg Island seizure would require American boots on the ground -  already as Iran's retaliatory blockade of the narrow strait has sent oil and gas prices climbing as a major share of global crude supply remains effectively frozen.

Trump on NATO and Iran:

Whether we get support or not, but I can say this — and I said it to them — we will remember. pic.twitter.com/uki36COerk

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 16, 2026

This is apparently what's behind Trump's growing urgency - and some might day desperation - for allies to step up, with the US president having told European leaders there could be a "very bad" future for NATO if member states fail to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to Financial Times. But by the looks of it most of Europe wants to avoid what's looking like a recipe for another quagmire in the Middle East. Ironically, Iran is bordered by two countries which were subject of over two decades of US-led war and occupation.

For example, after Italy had earlier made very clear it will have no involvement, Al Jazeera reports:

The ⁠war ⁠in Iran has nothing to do with NATO, ⁠a German government spokesperson says, adding that Germany ‌would not take part in the war nor in keeping the Strait of Hormuz open through ⁠military means.

"As long ⁠as this war continues, there will be no participation, ⁠not even in ⁠any effort ⁠to keep the Strait of Hormuz open by military ‌means," the spokesperson said. Greece ⁠also will not ⁠engage in ⁠any military operations ‌in the Strait of Hormuz, ⁠Greek government spokesman ⁠Pavlos ⁠Marinakis said.

And Britain too while signaling openness says it won't be NATO-led:

Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Monday Britain would not be drawn into a wider war in Iran but would work with allies on a "viable collective plan" to reopen the key Strait of Hormuz, though he acknowledged that would not be a simple task.

...Starmer told a press conference that reopening the strait was the only way to stabilize energy markets, and that he was talking to allies in Europe, the Gulf and the U.S. on a plan to secure freedom of navigation. He said it would not be a NATO-led mission.

Iran meanwhile continues to send missile and drones on America's gulf allies and energy infrastructure, with Saudi Arabia saying it intercepted 61 drones over its territory since midnight, though potential impact sites of projectiles what got through weren't immediately disclosed.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says the regime is not in a war of survival, telling @margbrennan the regime is “stable and strong enough.”

“We don’t see any reason why we should talk with Americans, because we were talking with them when they decided to attack us, and… pic.twitter.com/AQdyeWBiFu

— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) March 15, 2026

Flights at Dubai International Airport have been suspended after a fuel take went up on flames. "An Iranian drone attack ignited a fuel tank at Dubai International Airport early Monday, authorities said, as Tehran continued to strike civilian infrastructure across the Persian Gulf," Washington Post reports. Fujairah has also been hit again.

The Israeli military has said Monday it has begun “wide-scale wave of strikes targeting infrastructure” in the Iranian cities of Tehran, Shiraz, and Tabriz simultaneously. It has vowed to keep hitting Iran "as long as needed" - suggesting no quick end amid the war's third week.

But Israel also faces unprecedented bombardment by Iran's sophisticated missile and drone arsenal. Israel’s Health Ministry has newly announced that at least 3,369 people, including civilians and military personnel, have been wounded and injured - with many hospitalized - since the war's start. At least a dozen people have been killed, but the true numbers could be significantly higher as Israel's military has censored a lot of wartime information.

Fresh US-Israeli strikes on Tehran.

Below is a running death toll via Turkish media as of Sunday:

IRAN - The most recent death toll, reported by state media on Monday, was at least 1,270 people. But Iran's ambassador to the U.N. said on March 6 that at least 1,332 ⁠people had been killed since the war began. There has been no clarification of the discrepancy. It was not clear if those figures include at least 104 people that the Iranian military said were killed in a U.S. attack on an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka's coast on March 4.

LEBANON - At least 850 people have been killed in Israeli strikes, according to Lebanese authorities. The World Health Organization said at least 98 of those killed were children.

IRAQ - At least 30 people have been killed, according to Iraqi health authorities. Most of those were members of the Shi'ite Popular Mobilization Forces. One foreign crew member was killed in an attack on tankers near an ⁠Iraqi ⁠port, according to port security officials.

ISRAEL - Twelve people have been killed, including nine people in an Iranian missile strike on Beit Shemesh near Jerusalem on March 1, according to Israel's ambulance service. The Israeli military said two of its soldiers were killed in southern Lebanon.

UNITED STATES - Thirteen service members have been killed. Six were confirmed dead after a U.S. military refueling aircraft crashed over Iraq, the U.S. military said, while seven others have been killed in action during operations against Iran.

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES - Six people have been killed in Iranian attacks, according ⁠to the UAE's defense ministry.

KUWAIT - Authorities have reported six deaths - including two people killed in Iranian attacks, two interior ministry officers and two army soldiers.

SYRIA - Four people were killed when an Iranian missile struck a building in the southern Syrian city of Sweida on February 28, state news agency SANA said.

OMAN - Two people were killed in a drone strike on an industrial zone in Sohar province, marking the first fatalities inside the country, which has been hosting mediation talks between the U.S. and ⁠Iran. One ‌person died ‌earlier when a projectile hit a tanker off the coast of Muscat, ⁠the vessel's manager said.

SAUDI ARABIA - Two people were killed ‌when a projectile fell on a residential location in Al-Kharj city, southeast of the capital Riyadh.

BAHRAIN - Two people were killed in two separate Iranian attacks, with ⁠the most recent hitting a residential building in the capital Manama, according ⁠to the interior ministry.

FRANCE - One French soldier was killed and six others were wounded after ⁠a drone attack in northern Iraq, where they were providing counterterrorism training.

⚡️#BREAKING Fires erupt in Dubai following Iranian drone strikes pic.twitter.com/sBDs9JX809

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) March 16, 2026

The Trump White House has been angered by media headlines and reports saying the war is expanding and escalating across the region, but the above widening casualties point to this precisely being the case, as Washington continues to struggle to define objectives, timeline, or even what 'winning' looks like.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 08:50

Futures Jump, Oil Slides On Fresh Hormuz Hopes

Stock futures are higher AS energy prices dip modestly even as the war in the Middle East enters a third week, with Trump’s endgame unclear amid requests for international help to reopen the SoH.  As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.8% and and Nasdaq futures gain 1.0% with all Mag 7 names higher in premarket trading led by Meta which is reportedly planning layoffs that could affect 20% or more of the company. The bounce in futs and the slide in oil coincided with comments from the Iranian Foreign Minister that the US has already learned a good lesson. However, he did also note that the nation is not requesting a ceasefire and has not messaged the US.  Cyclicals outperform Defensives in what appears to be a relief rally. As JPM writes this morning, "it is unclear if futures are following the recent trend of a higher Monday into a sell off for the balance of the week, or if the market is pricing a pivot despite the likelihood that oil production curtailments will approximately double this week." Bond yields are lower by 1-2bp as the curve bull steepens, and USD is lower. Commodities are weaker ex-Energy. Initially oil jumped at the start of futures trading on Sunday night following a second attack in three days on Fujairah, a vital port in the UAE that’s just outside the Strait of Hormuz, but has since turned red. And while shipping through the Strait has been all but halted since the war started, several Iranian tankers as well as a vessel controlled by have made the journey. Today’s macro data focus is on Industrial Production, home prices, and regional activity indicators. The Fed meeting (plus other major CBs) and PPI are the other major releases this week.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 names are all higher: Meta rises 2% after Reuters reported that the social media giant is planning layoffs that could affect 20% or more of the company (Nvidia +1%, Tesla +0.9%, Apple +0.3%, Microsoft +0.6%, Amazon +0.5%, Alphabet +0.1%).

• Micron Technology (MU) climbs 4% — lifting other memory and storage companies — as analyst optimism grows ahead of the chipmaker’s results later this week.
• Nebius shares jumped 15% in premarket trading after Meta said it will pay as much as $27 billion over the next five years for access to artificial intelligence infrastructure from the cloud provider
• National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA) rises 25% after agreeing to be purchased by Public Storage Operating Co.
• Sable Offshore Group (SOC) rises 6% after the energy company said it restarted oil transportation at its California pipeline after the Trump administration invoked the Defense Production Act.

While attacks on oil facilities kept crude trading well above $100 a barrel, prices slipped about $4 off levels hit earlier in the day. Following the transit of two vessels on the weekend, India is attempting to get six others to cross, while several other nations are trying back channels to Iran to ensure safe passage for their tankers. 

“The market is trying to stabilize, but it is not one that has turned optimistic,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets. “Equities may welcome any sign that Hormuz could be reopened, but with further strikes still being threatened and diplomacy still patchy, conviction is low and positioning is likely to stay very twitchy.”

On tech, after the Mag-7 entered a technical correction on Friday, investors will turn attention to Nvidia’s annual AI conference this week. CEO Jensen Huang is giving a keynote speech at 2 p.m. ET today. In other AI news, Nvidia partner Hon Hai reported 4Q net income below consensus. Helping the tech space, the US Commerce Department withdrew ​its planned rule on ​AI chip exports, Reuters reported.

Turning to the broader market, several strategists are calling the bottom for equities: Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson says the market’s correction phase is nearing its end, and JPMorgan’s Mislav Matejka recommends buying the dip, while on the other side Goldman warns that in a severe oil shock the S&P could fall to 5,400. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank strategists write that inflows to equity funds (+$13.2b) picked up last week, with the biggest inflows into Japan (+$6.3b) since May 2013 and record Korea inflows (+$8.9b) while China saw outflows (-$7.8b).

As we noted last night, Goldman predicts that the AI investment boom should offset the drag from modestly weaker economic activity for corporate earnings in the US, reiterating a forecast for 12% EPS growth for the S&P 500 in 2026. Global equities are at risk of a correction, though probably not a bear market, according to other strategists at the bank. On the other hand if the oil crunch extends, the S&P could drop as low as 5,400 in a worst case scenario according to Goldman.

Wild swings in oil have led to an unusual range of moves across rates, commodities and equities, fueling significant trading activity in exotic options by hedge funds. Financial stocks are off to their worst start to a year since the Covid pandemic, with investors expecting more pain ahead as worries over everything from private credit to the Iran war roil the troubled sector.

Attention will also focus this week on a slew of central bank meetings, including at the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and the Bank of England. Those will be crucial to gauge policymakers’ thinking on how the oil shock will impact economy and the prospect for interest rates.

While oil near $100 a barrel fanning inflation fears, it’s also likely to dampen economic growth, casting uncertainty on how policymakers will respond.  “Every day that goes by with the Hormuz Strait closed is another bad news for the global economy,” said Francois Rimeu, senior strategist at Credit Mutuel Asset Management. “If the crisis continues there will be at some point some kind of trigger that will make investors realize the scale of the supply shock that’s building up.”

European stocks bounced off the day’s lows as Brent crude futures have pulled back from earlier highs. The moves have coincided with comments from the Iranian Foreign Minister that the US has already learned a good lesson. However, he did also note that the nation is not requesting a ceasefire and has not messaged the US. The Stoxx 600 is down a fourth session, falling 0.2%. Energy stocks rally after fresh attacks on oil infrastructure in the Middle East caused Brent prices to surge, while automakers lag.  Here are some of the biggest movers on Monday:

• GN Store Nord shares jump as much as 42%, the most on record, after Amplifon agreed to buy its hearing-aid business. Amplifon shares drop as much as 13%.
• Commerzbank shares climb as much as 5.3% after UniCredit made a €35 billion for the lender that will allow it to increase its shareholding beyond 30%, easing the path for a potential future acquisition.
• MTN shares surge as much as 7.4%, the most in two months as Africa’s largest wireless carrier returned to profit, declared a dividend that beat estimates and said it plans to buy back shares.
• Tecan shares drop as much as 6.3% to the lowest level in more than a decade after the Swiss maker of laboratory equipment provided guidance for 2026 which analysts said will spur downgrades to estimates.
• Idorsia shares fall as much as 18% to a six-month low after the Swiss pharma company said Srishti Gupta will step down as chief executive officer and from the board of directors by mutual agreement.
• Standard Life shares drop as much as 3.6% after 2025 earnings with analysts noting that, while results were broadly as expected, IFRS numbers were below forecasts.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot index falls 0.4%, with the greenback down versus all majors. USD/JPY has continued to back away from 160 following comments from the Japanese Finance Minister.

In rates, 10-year yields slipped two basis points, after rising for five straight sessions with globaL bond yields are generally softer heading into a busy week for G-10 central banks as traders weigh how policymakers will weigh the inflation and growth implications from rising energy prices. The US Treasury market has erased all its gains for the year amid concerns about both inflation and growth risks. A batch of rate decisions are due this week, including the Fed on Wednesday. It’s expected to hold rates steady, though not without dissent. Bloomberg Economics expects the central bank to signal an extended pause ahead and add two-sided language around the rate path — flagging upside risks to inflation as well as downside risks to employment.

As Wall Street dialed back its bets on rate cuts for this year, bonds from the US to Japan and Australia have dropped. A gauge of global debt has also ceded its year-to-date gains. Gold traded below $5,000 as high oil prices threaten Fed rate cuts. Still, analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expect Treasuries and most other government bonds to edge higher by year-end, seeing growth risks outweighing the inflation pulse.

In commodities, spot gold and silver are down 0.7% and 3.3% respectively. Bitcoin continues to climb, up 2.2%. WTI drops 2.5% to $96.25 after rising as high as $101 early in the session.

Looking at today's calednar, Empire manufacturing for March is due at 8:30 a.m. New York, followed by February readings for industrial production and capacity utilization at 9:15 a.m. The Fed’s external communications blackout continues. 

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.7%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.9%,
• Russell 2000 mini +0.6%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.2%,
• DAX -0.2%,
• CAC 40 -0.4%
• 10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.26%
• VIX -1.2 points at 26.03
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.3% at 1213.82,
• euro +0.3% at $1.1449
• WTI crude +0.6% at $99.34/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Donald Trump demanded other countries, including China, help secure passage for ships in the Strait of Hormuz. He told the FT his planned summit with Xi Jinping may be delayed if Beijing doesn’t assist. Iran’s foreign minister denied it’s seeking talks or a ceasefire after Trump told NBC he’s willing to make a deal but wants better terms. BBG
• Top U.S. and Chinese economic officials were due to conclude talks in Paris on Monday, with potential areas of agreement in agriculture, critical minerals and managed trade that could be taken up by U.S. President Donald ‌Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. In the talks, the Chinese side showed openness to potential additional purchases of U.S. agricultural goods. RTRS
• Japan’s defense minister said the nation has no current plans to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz. Separately, the finance minister said officials are prepared to respond boldly to currency market movements. BBG
• Volodymyr Zelenskiy said a drone deal with the US is still possible despite Trump’s public rejection. BBG
• American oil executives delivered a bleak message to Trump officials in recent days: The energy crisis the Iran war has unleashed is likely to get worse. Exxon CEO Darren Woods said that oil prices could rise past current elevated levels if speculators unexpectedly bid up prices and that markets could see a supply crunch of refined products. WSJ
• China's economy began the year on a firmer footing as factory output quickened while retail sales and investment rebounded in January-February, offering early relief for policymakers as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran injects fresh uncertainty for growth. China saw retail sales (+2.8% vs. the Street +2.5%) and industrial production (+6.3% vs. the Street +5.3%).  RTRS
• Socialist Emmanuel Gregoire led the first round of Sunday’s Paris mayoral election. Runoffs for the municipal polls will be held March 22. BBG
• Wealthy individuals have sought to pull more than $10bn from some of the largest private credit funds in the 1st quarter, prompting investment managers to limit withdrawals and threatening to stall one of Wall Street’s most important sources of growth. FT
• Meta will pay up to $27 billion over the next five years for access to AI infrastructure from neocloud firm Nebius, as it seeks to compete with the industry’s top frontier models. Meta shares rose premarket after Reuters reported it’s planning layoffs that may affect 20% or more of its workforce. The cuts are aimed at offsetting costly investments in AI. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks mostly declined amid cautiousness at the start of a busy week of central bank activity and following the continued conflict after the US struck military targets in Iran's Kharg Island oil export hub, but left oil infrastructure intact. ASX 200 was led lower by mining, materials, resources and tech, while the RBA kicked off its two-day policy meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to hike rates for the second consecutive meeting amid inflationary pressures. Nikkei 225 retreated amid losses in utilities and electric names due to the ongoing energy-related uncertainty, despite Japan beginning its emergency oil release, while the Japanese data calendar is quiet to start the week, but begins to pick up on Tuesday, and the BoJ are also set to conduct a policy meeting later in the week. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed as participants digested stronger-than-expected activity data for China, and with US-China trade talks in Paris on Sunday said to be constructive and will resume today. However, there were also comments from US President Trump, who called for China to help open the Strait of Hormuz and suggested a potential delay to the Trump-Xi summit scheduled later this month.

Top Asian News

• China's stats bureau's spokesperson expects consumption to rise steadily this year as policy measures gain traction, but noted that more support is needed.
• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said prepared to take decisive steps on FX.

European bourses are mixed to start the week as the Middle East conflict remains the dominant macro theme. The FTSE 100 outperforms as oil majors gain with crude above USD 100/bbl, while the FTSE MIB lags after Amplifon declines on news it will acquire GN Store Nord’s hearing unit for DKK 17bln. European Sectors are also mixed. Energy leads as Brent holds above USD 100/bbl, with Real Estate also firmer as Segro gains following a broker upgrade and UK Rightmove house prices rise M/M. Basic Resources initially underperformed as spot gold dips below USD 5,000/oz, while Banks remain pressured.

Top European News

• Swiss Sight Deposits (w/e 13th Mar), CHF: Domestic 433.5bln (prev. 428.8bln), Total 454.4bln (prev. 454.07bln).
• UK Rightmove House Prices YY (Mar) -0.2% (Prev. 0.0%).
• UK Rightmove House Prices MM (Mar) 0.8% (Prev. 0.0%).

FX

• DXY is marginally softer as the index takes a breather after reclaiming the 100.00 level, while traders brace for a heavy central bank week and monitor Middle East tensions. US President Trump is reportedly seeking a coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and weighing the seizure of Iran’s Kharg Island, while also warning NATO and calling on China to help secure the waterway. DXY trades in a narrow 100.18–100.48 range after Friday’s 99.59–100.54 band. The FOMC is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.50–3.75% on Wednesday, with markets not pricing a cut until Q4 2026.
• EUR/USD rebounds from around a seven-month low amid the softer dollar but remains below 1.1500 (1.1414–1.1456 range) amid quiet Eurozone newsflow and geopolitical uncertainty. The pair remains within Friday’s 1.1411–1.1530 range. The ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged at 2.0% on Thursday, though higher energy prices have pushed market pricing slightly more hawkish, with a 25bp hike now fully priced by year-end.
• GBP/USD edges higher alongside the weaker dollar after recently hitting a year-to-date low. UK ministers are set to announce a GBP 50mln support package for households facing the energy shock from the Iran conflict, while the UK is also exploring an EU tuition fee cut to reset post-Brexit relations. The BoE is expected to keep the Bank Rate at 3.75% on Thursday, though energy-driven inflation risks have prompted a more hawkish repricing.
• USD/JPY is choppy in the absence of Japanese data, with comments from Japanese Finance Minister Katayama stating authorities are ready to take decisive FX steps if needed. The pair trades within 159.17–159.75, inside Friday’s 159.01–159.76 range. The BoJ this week is expected to keep rates unchanged at 0.75%, although markets still price a possible hike by June.
• Antipodeans outperform. NZD/USD leads gains despite mixed domestic data, while AUD/USD reclaims the 0.7000 level ahead of the RBA decision tomorrow, where the central bank is widely expected to deliver another rate hike.

Fixed Income

• USTs are slightly firmer as Treasuries digest the weekend’s modest geopolitical escalation and higher energy prices. Futures trade in a narrow 111-12+ to 111-21+ range, but remain near recent lows at the bottom of March’s 111-11 to 114-06 band and close to the January and February troughs of 111-06+ and 111-08+ as markets await a busy central bank week.
• Bunds edge higher in quiet trade, with gains of around nine ticks in narrow sub-20 tick ranges. Focus in Europe centres on energy-related meetings this week, including a press conference later today that could discuss EU-wide measures to stabilise energy markets and updates on proposals for a “coalition of the willing” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
• Gilts outperform after gapping higher by 26 ticks and extending gains to an 88.84 peak, leaving futures up just over 30 ticks at best. The move reflects partial recovery after Gilts had previously underperformed peers during the Middle East-driven energy shock.

Commodities

• Crude Futures extend gains as markets digest weekend escalation in the Iran conflict and fresh risks to regional energy infrastructure. WTI trades above USD 100/bbl within a USD 96.74–102.44/bbl range, while Brent hovers around USD 105/bbl (USD 102.04–106.50/bbl), however WTI narrowly underperforms Brent futures on news US called for oil producers to increase output to combat surging global energy prices. The US conducted strikes on military targets on Iran’s Kharg Island, from where most Iranian oil exports originate, though oil infrastructure was left intact. Prices also rise after reports the UAE’s Fujairah port was struck with loadings suspended, while Saudi Crown MBS reportedly urged Washington to maintain military pressure on Iran. Meanwhile, Trump says China should help reopen the Strait of Hormuz ahead of a planned Beijing visit.
• Nat Gas is firmer alongside the broader energy complex as geopolitical risks underpin prices, with front-month Dutch TTF near EUR 52/MWh.
• Spot Gold is flat in choppy trade within a USD 4,967.77–5,036.01/oz range as the metal tracks USD movements while traders monitor oil-driven inflation risks ahead of a heavy central bank week.
• Base Metals are softer across the board. Copper recovers from Friday’s lows but upside is capped by cautious risk sentiment. Meanwhile, Aluminium Bahrain begins a phased shutdown of Reduction Lines 1–3 (around 19% of its 1.62mln-tonne annual capacity) in response to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Senior US administration official acknowledges that prices will continue to rise but admits there is little the government can currently do at the moment, according to a CNN reporter.
• Oil executives warned the Trump administration the energy crisis will likely worsen and that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz might push up oil prices further, according to WSJ.

Trade/Tariffs

• US and Chinese officials held candid and constructive talks in Paris on Sunday and agreed to enhance stability in the trade relationship, according to sources familiar with the talks, while the sides met for six hours and will resume talks on Monday. US Treasury Secretary Bessent and USTR Greer raised the need for China to buy more Boeing aircraft, US coal, oil and gas, while US and Chinese officials discussed solutions to difficulties faced by some American firms in obtaining rare earths. Talks will continue on a technical level on Monday.
• China responded to US allegations of forced labor in the Section 301 probe and has lodged a formal representation with the US over the investigation.
• Indian Trade Secretary said the US-India trade deal will be signed when the US re-establishes global tariff rates. The US is working on recreating global tariff architecture.
• Indian Trade Secretary said exports to West Asia have been impacted by the Middle East situation; India is considering measures to support exports to the Middle East.

Geopolitics

• US President Trump said he ordered a strike that wiped out every military target on Kharg Island, which is where Iran exports nearly all of its oil from, but left the oil infrastructure intact which he would reconsider if Iran interferes with the safe passage of ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
• US President Trump said he is hearing that Iran’s new Supreme Leader Khamenei may be dead, and that it is not clear if Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz, while he also stated that he is not ready to make a deal with Iran because the terms aren’t good enough yet. Furthermore, Trump said recent strikes on Kharg Island demolished most of the island and commented that they “may hit it a few more times just for fun”.
• US President Trump posted that they have destroyed 100% of Iran’s military capability and that many countries will send warships to help keep the Strait of Hormuz open and safe.
• US President Trump said they have had strong results in Iran and he does not believe Iran is ready to negotiate, but will be ready to negotiate at some point. Trump also said the US is talking to other countries about policing the Strait of Hormuz and cannot say which countries will help yet, while a few countries would rather not get involved. Furthermore, he called on NATO to help and thinks China should come in to help on the Strait of Hormuz.
• US President Trump seeks a Hormuz coalition and is weighing seizing Iran's critical oil depot on Kharg Island — a move that would require US boots on the ground — if tankers remain bottled up in the Persian Gulf, according to US officials cited by Axios.
• US President Trump warned that NATO faces a very bad future if US allies fail to assist in opening up the Strait of Hormuz, according to FT.
• US lawmakers have begun talking about a supplemental funding bill for the Iran war, Punchbowl reports; package could have a USD 100bln or greater price tag, according to sources.
• Israel's IDF has launched a focused ground operation in southern Lebanon, including a build-up of forces in order to capture more forward lines, N12 reported.
• Israeli Home Front notifies of a missile attack from Iran targeting areas in central Israel.
• Iran's Foreign Minister Araqchi says no messages have been exchanged with the US and that Tehran has not asked for a ceasefire as the "war needs to end in a way that ensures it does not happen again".
• Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Baghaei says parties not involved in the war have had vessels pass through Hormuz with coordination and permission from Iran's military. The Strait of Hormuz is only closed to the enemies of Iran.
• The Iranian Army Spokesperson said the support centre of the USS Ford in the Red Sea are considered as targets, Al Arabiya reported.
• Iran's media operations centre warns residents in specific areas of Dubai and Doha of possible attacks in the coming hours, while it stated that US military personnel are hiding in locations in Doha and Dubai and urges residents to evacuate immediately.
• Oil loading at UAE's Fujairah suspended after the port was hit, Bloomberg sources report.
• UAE's Fujairah port was hit and the damage is being assessed, Bloomberg reported citing sources.
• Multiple locals are said to confirm smoke rising in the vicinity of Dubai International Airport, but it is unclear what has been targeted, according to Faytuks News.
• Explosions heard in Bahrain's skies as air defences intercept an Iranian attack, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Missile bombardment targets US military base for logistical support at Baghdad airport, according to Al-Haddath.
• The meeting of European foreign ministers will discuss the protection of sea lanes and the Strait of Hormuz, Al Jazeera sources report.
• Russia's Kremlin says we are open to continuing Ukraine negotiations and that US President Trump has not lost interest, instead he recommended Ukrainian President Zelensky make a deal

US Event Calendar

 

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

After Friday's revelation that it was the first consecutive monthly Friday 13th for 11 years, today's nearly-as-impressive revelation is that this week sees the Fed, ECB, BoJ and BoE all meet in a single calendar week for the first time since December 2021. So a "super week" for central banks. All of them will have a very complex backdrop to deal with, shaped by geopolitical risk, volatile energy prices, and unsettled inflation dynamics.

Clearly the Middle East is the centre of attention for markets right now, and as we go to press this morning, the market turmoil is showing no sign of easing. Brent crude oil prices are up another +1.65% to $104.84/bbl, building on their +42% rise over the previous two weeks since the strikes began. Moreover, that’s actually beneath the overnight highs, as Brent had been as high as $106.50/bbl when markets reopened on Sunday night.

The latest gains for oil follow the news late on Friday (after the US close) that the US had conducted bombing raids on Kharg Island. That’s particularly significant because around 90% of Iran's crude exports are shipped from there. For now, Trump said in a post that he’d chosen not to destroy the oil infrastructure, but he also said he’d reconsider that if Iran interfered with ships’ passage through the Strait of Hormuz. So markets are still concerned about further escalation, and with each passing day investors have moved to price in a more protracted conflict. For instance, 6-month Brent futures are up another +0.33% this morning at $85.94/bbl.

In the meantime, there’s also been no sign of the two sides moving towards negotiations. For instance, Trump said to NBC on Saturday that “Iran wants to make a deal, and I don’t want to make it because the terms aren’t good enough yet”. However, on the Iranian side, their foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said “We don’t see any reason why we should talk with Americans”. So the rhetoric has only added to the fears about an extended conflict and a sustained period of high oil prices.

When it comes to oil prices, all eyes are still on the Strait of Hormuz, and when that will begin to reopen. Interestingly, the WSJ reported last night that the Trump administration would announce plans this week about a coalition of multiple counties that would escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the report also said it was still under discussion whether it would start before or after the hostilities actually ended. So clearly that’s one we need to get the details on.

Overnight in Asia, we’ve seen a mixed performance across the major equity indices. Most have fallen back, including the Nikkei (-0.45%), the Shanghai Comp (-0.32%), the CSI 300 (-0.25%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.39%). However, South Korea’s KOSPI is up +0.72%, and in Hong Kong the Hang Seng is up +1.30%. Looking forward as well, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.50%, signalling a pickup from Friday’s close, when the index hit its lowest since November.

Meanwhile, the Chinese activity data for February has also been stronger than expected overnight. For instance, industrial production is up +6.3% on a year-on-year basis over the first two months of the year (vs. +5.3% expected), and retail sales also beat expectations at +2.8% (vs. +2.5% expected). However, given the strikes on Iran began on February 28, we’ll have to wait for the March and April releases to get a better sense of how that’s impacting the data.

Whilst the conflict is set to dominate the week ahead, we do still have those four big central bank meetings, where all eyes will be on their reaction functions to the war’s impact and the latest oil shock. Starting with the Fed, our economists expect them to keep rates unchanged this week (see their full preview here) and think they’ll emphasise elevated geopolitical uncertainty. They only expect minor statement tweaks, including smoothed language on recent labour data (especially given January and February’s conflicting payrolls) and a nod to geopolitical risks, highlighting uncertainty and near-term upside pressure on inflation. Then at the press conference, they think Chair Powell is likely to stress that recent events mainly transmit through financial conditions—particularly oil prices. For now, however, our economists think he’ll avoid signalling any meaningful shift in the near term policy outlook.

For the Fed, an important consequence of the conflict is that higher energy prices have begun to feed into inflation assumptions. So our economists have nudged up their headline inflation estimates for this year, and they expect Fed officials to reflect a similar adjustment when they publish their updated Summary of Economic Projections. Indeed, core PCE inflation has registered back-to-back 0.4% monthly increases now, pushing the year-on-year rate to 3.1%, the highest since early 2024. For the dot plot, our economists are still expecting it to signal one rate cut this year, although it wouldn’t take much to shift the median dot for 2026. Clearly though, the outlook is going to remain heavily dependent on the oil price. For example, our economists have found that a sustained oil price around $100/bbl would still see the projected tax benefits to consumers from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act outweigh the drag from higher effective energy costs (see here). However, a move toward $150/bbl would pose a more material risk to consumer spending and the broader outlook.

Beyond the Fed, this week’s incoming data is unlikely to materially alter the tone of the meeting. Our economists expect February’s industrial production today to rise by 0.3%, slower than January's 0.7%, largely due to softer utility output, though oil and gas extraction will be worth monitoring. Otherwise, the regional manufacturing surveys from New York and Philadelphia could reflect some drag from geopolitical uncertainty, with particular attention on capital spending components. And given the recent labour market volatility, Thursday’s initial jobless claims will take on added importance as they fall within the March employment survey window.

Away from the US, this Thursday will bring the ECB, BoE and BoJ meetings, with our economists expecting all three to leave rates on hold, with the emphasis firmly on guidance rather than action. At the ECB, our economists expect the Governing Council to acknowledge heightened uncertainty and near-term upside risks to inflation, while stopping short of explicitly flagging medium term risks. They also expect a strong reiteration of policy flexibility and a clear message underscoring the ECB’s unwavering commitment to price stability, with officials keen to signal that they stand ready to act to avoid a repeat of the 2022–23 inflation episode. See their full preview here.  

Then in the UK, our economist thinks the MPC will lean into a dovish wait and see stance amid a more clouded outlook following the Iran related energy shock. He expects a less divided vote than in February, with the majority favouring an unchanged Bank Rate, while two members continue to favour a cut. Although our economist still sees two rate cuts this year, recent developments have pushed back the expected timing. For more info, see the full preview here.

Over in Japan, our economist expects the BoJ to maintain its current stance, with attention focused on Governor Ueda’s press conference. While underlying fundamentals could justify an early hike, elevated oil prices and growth risks are likely to temper near term action, and sustained crude prices above $100/bbl would reduce the likelihood of an April move. His full preview is here. Meanwhile, other central banks making decisions this week include the RBA (Tuesday; our economists expect a hike), the BoC (Wednesday), the SNB and the Riksbank (Thursday). The latter three are widely expected to see no change in rates.

Finally this week, notable data includes Germany’s Zew survey for March tomorrow and UK labour market data due Thursday. In the geopolitical sphere, President Trump and Japanese PM Takaichi are meeting in Washington, with defence cooperation expected to be the primary topic (see more in our Chief Japan economist’s week ahead here). In Europe, this week’s events include an EU leaders’ summit (Thursday to Friday). And on earnings, the lineup includes Micron, FedEx and Lululemon in the US as well as Tencent and Alibaba in China. See the day-by-day calendar of events at the end as usual for more.

Recapping last week now, the market moves were clearly dominated by events in the Middle East, with oil prices jumping as the conflict showed no sign of ending. So that left Brent crude up +11.27% (+2.67% Friday) at $103.14/bbl, whilst WTI was up +8.59% (+3.11% Friday) at $98.71/bbl, even as the highs for the week actually happened early Monday morning in Asia. Investors were particularly concerned by an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and there were notable rises for oil futures further out the curve as well, as investors increasingly priced out a swift end to the disruption. So the 6-month future was up +12.31% (+1.47% Friday) to $85.66/bbl, marking its biggest weekly jump since 2022. However, there was a bit of pullback in natural gas prices, with front-end European futures down -2.82% last week (+0.57% Friday) to €50.75/MWh.

Although the most direct moves were in the oil price, the effects cascaded across other asset classes as investors priced in a stagflationary shock. For instance, there was a clear reaction in central bank pricing, as speculation mounted about a hawkish response. So by the end of the week, markets were pricing 47bps of ECB rate hikes by the December meeting, with a rate cut fully priced in by the July meeting.

Meanwhile for the Fed, the amount of cuts priced by December’s meeting fell from 44bps to just 24bps.
That repricing had a clear effect on sovereign bonds, which suffered steep losses. In fact, the 10yr bund yield was up +12.2bps (+2.3bps Friday) to 2.98%, marking its highest level since July 2011 during the Euro crisis. Moreover, the 2yr German yield rose +13.1bps (+2.4bps Friday) to an 18-month high of 2.43%. It was a similar story for the US as well, where the 10yr Treasury yield rose +13.8bps (+1.5bps Friday) to 4.28%, its highest level since January.

All this proved a tough backdrop for risk assets, with equities losing ground around the world. So the S&P 500 fell -1.60% (-0.61% Friday) to its lowest since November, whilst Europe’s STOXX 600 fell -0.50% (-0.47% Friday), and Japan’s Nikkei was down -3.24% (-1.16% Friday). There was also a decent move wider for credit spreads, with US IG spreads up +9bps last week, marking their biggest weekly jump since the Liberation Day tariffs were announced last April. Meanwhile US HY spreads were up +15bps, Euro IG up +7bps, and Euro HY up +22bps.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 08:38

This Polycrisis Is Unique

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

When understood as a wave, the current Everything Bubble is not sustainable.

The problem with predictions based on the past is the analogies we discern are interpretations which means if we like one interpretation more than the alternatives, we stretch the present crisis and past crises to fit our preferred interpretation.

Two round pegs pounded into square holes? No problem.

Past eras are never perfect analogies because Things Change (March 3, 2026) If we're not trying to force an analogy that fits our pre-selected preferred interpretation, then we have to be open to the possibility that the present crisis has no historical analog of predictive value.

Consider the remarkable confluence of cycles and waves in the present era. Richard Bonugli and I discussed this confluence in our podcast Current Waves and Cycles: Energy, Commodities, Inflation (38 min). Such a confluence generates a polycrisis, a series of overlapping, inter-connected, mutually reinforcing crises that are immune to simplistic solutions.

Even if you're skeptical of cycles (for the reason stated above, that timelines seem shoehorned into a model that doesn't actually fit), it's noteworthy that so many cycles have reached crisis points in this historical moment.

1. The Fourth Turning cycle of 80 years / four generations. (1781, 1861, 1841, 2021)

2. the 18-year stock market cycle. (1973, 1991, 2008-09, 2026-27)

3. Peter Turchin's 50-year cycle (which occur in 50-year increments in long-wave cycles).

There are other cycles that might in play: sunspots, etc. These three are representative, not comprehensive.

These cycles identify the present as a period of unavoidable, transformative crisis / resolution / dissolution. This confluence alerts us to the possibility that analogs from the past will mislead rather than enlighten.

If you're skeptical of cycles, then the difference between cycles and waves is worth studying. Author David Hackett Fischer (The Great Wave: Price Revolutions and the Rhythm of History) described the difference between cycles and waves:

"Cyclical rhythms are fixed and regular. Their periods are highly predictable. Great waves are more variable and less predictable. They differ in duration, magnitude, velocity, and momentum. One great price wave lasted less than ninety years; another continued more than 180 years. The irregularities in individual price movements make them no more (or less) predictable than individual waves in the sea.

Even so, all great waves had important qualities in common. They all shared the same wave-structure. They tended to have the same sequence of development, the same pattern of price relatives, similar movements of wages, rent, interest rates; and the same dangerous volatility in later stages. All major price revolutions in modern history began in periods of prosperity. Each ended in shattering world crises and was followed by periods of recovery and comparative equilibrium."

Examples of waves range from rogue waves in the sea to bond yields / interest rates which arise and decline over periods of time that vary too much to qualify as cycles but match the dynamics of waves described by Fischer. After declining for roughly 40 years, bond yields have recently turned up in what looks like a change in long-term trend.

In other words, the business cycle, the Kondratieff credit cycle, the Debt Super-Cycle, etc. are defined not by the calendar but by their internal dynamics and measurable qualities. Credit/debt, for example, builds up in a wave of speculative excess that then crashes.

As Fischer observed, waves of human history share characteristics with ocean waves, which can accrete energy and become giant rogue waves that cannot be predicted even as they can be foreseen as recurring phenomena.

Both waves and cycles tend to follow the dynamics of S-curves in which a trend takes off in a boost phase, matures into a peak and then decays or reverses.

Perhaps the closest analogous period was the 1970s, an era characterized by external energy shocks that raised the cost of energy to a higher plateau, unleashing inflationary pressures throughout the economy, and stagnant productivity. These two dynamics generate stagflation, which when exacerbated by an institutional tropism to "run the economy hot," embeds self-reinforcing inflationary expectations that push enterprises and households into risk-off frugality or insolvency.

The net result of these dynamics was a massive erosion of the purchasing power of wages and currency. As this chart shows, everyone who held on to their stock portfolio from 1966, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) topped 1,000 for the first time, until 1982 when it finally rose above 1,000 and continued higher, might have cheered the restoration of their stock portfolio's value, but adjusted for inflation, their wealth had shrunk by 2/3rds as every dollar of their portfolio had fallen to 34 cents by 1982.

When understood as a wave, the current Everything Bubble is not sustainable. Energy, commodities, currencies, inflation, credit, interest rates, risk, "growth" and every other aspect of the socio-economic system will be in flux, and cycles and waves offer us a useful context / orientation as things become, um, dynamic.

The confluence of cycles, waves and conditions of the present may well be unique, and historical analogies may be misleading while instilling us with false confidence in our projections. Every analogy from the decline of the Western Roman Empire to the 1640s to the 1970s to the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis may illuminate human psychology, but offer little in the way of predictive value in the decade ahead.

This bubble is hyper-normalized, a gigantic wave that's cresting and about to crash.

A few fortunate surfers will get the ride of a lifetime, the rest of us will experience wipeout. How bad it gets will depend partly on luck and partly on how well we've prepared ourselves for events we don't control. As this unprecedented wave breaks, the only thing we can control is our response.

*  *  *

My new book Investing In Revolution is available at a 10% discount ($18 for the paperback, $24 for the hardcover and $8.95 for the ebook edition). Introduction (free). Check out my updated Books and Films. Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com.Subscribe to my Substack for free

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 08:25

Sector Watch: The Energy Security Pivot Accelerates

Authored by Boredom Baron via Substack,

Four sectors demand specific attention this week, and the supply chain dynamics within each are more nuanced than the headlines suggest.

Logistics and Transportation face existential cost pressure, but the picture is bifurcating exactly as I suggested it would. The Denmark story, with the government begging citizens to “please, please, please” avoid driving, tells you how directly the energy shock is hitting consumer behavior and by extension transportation demand. European road freight is already under structural pressure: contract freight rates climbed 2.6 points quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2025 as major shippers locked in rates ahead of anticipated capacity tightening. The spread between contract and spot rates is a real-time barometer of corporate panic: when shippers are willing to pay a heavy premium for guaranteed truck availability over volatile spot pricing, it suggests boardrooms expect logistics disruptions to persist. Add the Hormuz closure on top of a pre-existing 444,000 driver shortage across Europe, and the pressure on transport-dependent small-caps is severe. But the restructuring of global trade routes around the Hormuz blockade is also creating winners. European logistics hubs positioned as alternative gateways for Asian goods, particularly those with rail connections to Central Asian corridors, could see structural increases in volume. The Global Baku Forum this week highlighted the “Middle Corridor” linking Asia and Europe through the Caucasus as a strategic transport opportunity that is gaining momentum.

Defense and Dual-Use Infrastructure continues to be the most structurally advantaged sector in our universe. European governments are demonstrating a strict, legislatively mandated preference for domestic procurement to guarantee sovereignty and the security of supply, which means the multi-decade rearmament cycle (anchored by Germany’s €500 billion infrastructure plan and the Readiness 2030 initiative) flows disproportionately to European small- and mid-cap precision component manufacturers, not just the headline-grabbing prime contractors. Modern defense platforms require vast networks of deeply specialized suppliers producing complex avionics, precision optical sensors, hardened materials, and secure communications equipment. The qualification processes in aerospace (3-7 years to certify a component, then specified for the aircraft’s 30+ year lifecycle with recurring maintenance revenue) create the most durable competitive moats in European small-cap investing. Companies strategically positioned at the intersection of civilian infrastructure and defense mobility are essentially insulated from standard cyclical downturns by the non-discretionary nature of sovereign budgets.

Warehouse Automation and Industrial Robotics is the sector that directly benefits from the nearshoring paradox I described in Contrarian #4. Every factory relocated from Asia to Central Europe needs automated systems to offset higher labor costs. The European warehouse automation market is projected to compound at double-digit rates through 2034, driven by labor shortages and vacancy rates exceeding 12% in European logistics, which sent robot installations up 28% in Central and Eastern Europe. The ecosystem extends beyond traditional robotic arms to encompass Autonomous Mobile Robots (AMRs), high-resolution LiDAR sensors, force-torque sensors, and AI-driven Warehouse Management Systems. Companies like Kardex Holding, Interroll Holding, and AutoStore aren’t selling into a cyclical demand pulse. They’re selling shovels during a structural gold rush, as European supply chain leaders confirm that cost reduction has definitively superseded innovation as the paramount objective for technology integration. Approximately 25% of EU firms have now invested in proprietary digital tracking systems to fortify supply chain visibility, and that percentage will only grow as Hormuz-related disruptions persist.

Energy Infrastructure and Alternatives are seeing renewed interest. Europe switched on its first microgrid-connected data center this week in Ireland, a niche story that nonetheless signals the direction of travel. Every week that Hormuz remains closed strengthens the investment case for distributed energy generation, waste-to-energy operations, and grid infrastructure companies. SoftBank’s $33 billion US power plant deal shows that institutional capital is making enormous bets on energy security. But there’s a contrarian wrinkle here too: the green transition requires exponential increases in critical raw materials, most notably rare earth elements, lithium, and cobalt, whose extraction and processing are dominated by China. The EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act aims to boost domestic recycling and extraction, but actual operational progress is dangerously slow relative to the pace of mandated decarbonization. Companies accelerating the energy transition could find themselves swapping a dependency on Middle Eastern hydrocarbons for a dependency on Chinese processed metals. That’s not energy security. That’s energy dependency with different geography.

Subscribe to Boredom Baron here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 07:20

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads:

• Barron’s 100 Most Influential Women in U.S. Finance: Our annual list honors women helping their companies, clients, and country through volatile markets and challenging times. Meet this year’s 28 new additions. (Barron’s)

• Why Private Market Funds Are Dangerous for Retail Investors.  Private market practices have developed without significant regulatory oversight, and the markets themselves have long been dominated by sophisticated players, potentially leaving inexperienced investors vulnerable. The push to democratize private equity access is really about expanding the fee pool. Retail investors should understand they’re buying illiquidity and opacity at premium prices. (ProMarket) see also The AltView’s take on industry propaganda: A summary feat. A skeptical look at the narratives the alternative investment industry sells to its investors. A summary. feat. *Altie* nominees Mercer, Pru, Goldman, Georgetown University, Willis Towers Watson, Blackrock, Neuberger Berman, Franklin Templeton, State Street, Empower and more! (TheAltView)

• For the Best Long-Term Bet in the AI Economy, Look to the Past: Morningstar makes the case that the real AI winners might be boring diversified funds, not the flashy thematic plays. History suggests they’re right. AI isn’t the first game-changing technology for the economy. Here’s what investors can learn from previous waves of innovation. (Morningstar)

• Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2026: UBS’s annual compendium of long-term asset class returns across global markets. Essential reference material for any serious investor. The latest edition highlights what has driven real asset returns over time and what lessons we can draw to help navigate the future. (UBS)

• Should Hot IPOs Get Special Treatment? With offerings from SpaceX and OpenAI on the horizon, Nasdaq is considering a rules change that goes too far. The eternal debate about IPO allocation and whether retail investors deserve better access. Wall Street’s answer has always been ‘no,’ but the pressure is building. (Wall Street Journal)

• As AI Threatens Certain Jobs, How Will It Impact the Housing Market? If white-collar workers start earning less — or stop earning altogether — that has real consequences for housing demand.(Housing Notes)

• Prices for New Cars Have Soared. Here’s One Big Reason Why. Tariffs, supply chain friction, and regulatory costs keep pushing sticker prices higher.(Reuters)

• January’s EV Registrations Fell 41% As The Full Weight Of Trump’s Policy Changes Hit Home: Electric vehicle registrations fell off a cliff to begin the year, history says the U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran will be disastrous for our auto industry, the Honda Prologue will soon join its newly canceled electric siblings in heaven and the Trump administration is suing California over its zero-emission vehicle and greenhouse gas rules. So much for states’ rights. Policy matters. Strip away the EV incentives and watch adoption collapse in real time. A masterclass in how government can kill a market transition. (Jalopnik)

• Marco Rubio’s Florida Bestie Is an Accused ‘Foreign Agent’ Set to Go on Trial — With Rubio on the Witness List. The Secretary of State’s close friend faces foreign agent charges, and Rubio himself may have to testify. David Rivera and Rubio bought a house in Tallahassee when they were coming up together in Florida politics. But he’s been a headache for the secretary of state ever since, and now he could be one for the Trump White House, too. (Vanity Fair)

• Britain is ejecting hereditary nobles from Parliament after 700 years: “Our parliament should always be a place where talents are recognized and merit counts,” he said. “It should never be a gallery of old boys’ networks, nor a place where titles, many of which were handed out centuries ago, hold power over the will of the people.” The House of Lords finally evicts members whose qualification for lawmaking is having the right great-great-great-grandfather. Better seven centuries late than never. (PBS)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Matt Cherwin, co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of Marek Capital. The alternative asset management firm launched in 2024. Previously, he spent 16-years at JPMorgan Chase & Co where he held titles of Chief Investment Officer, Group Treasurer, Co-Head of Global Spread Markets, Global Head of Securitized Products, and Global Head of Asset-Backed Trading.

 

The real reason sunlight is increasing (it’s not daylight saving time).

Source: USA Today

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Monday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Supply Chain Layoffs Spread Across Warehouses, Factories And Rail Terminals

By Noi Mahoney of FreightWaves

A wave of layoffs across U.S. supply chains — from EV battery plants and auto parts factories to warehouses and rail terminals — has affected nearly 4,000 workers in recent weeks, according to company announcements and WARN filings across multiple states.

Recent WARN filings and company announcements show job cuts across at least a dozen companies in states including California, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas, Ohio, South Carolina, Pennsylvania and Alabama.

The largest layoffs in the recent wave are coming from the automotive and industrial supply chain. SK Battery America said it laid off 958 workers — about 37% of its workforce — at its electric vehicle battery plant in Commerce, Georgia, citing shifting EV demand as automakers reassess production plans.

Meanwhile, bankrupt auto parts manufacturer First Brands Group announced major workforce reductions, including 572 layoffs across three facilities in Brownsville, Texas, and 333 jobs cut at a plant in Fayetteville, Tennessee, as part of its Chapter 11 restructuring.

In food manufacturing, Campbell’s said it will cut 205 jobs at its Paris, Texas plant as it repurposes the facility to focus on sauce production. Technology services firm Bluum USA also filed notice it will close its Irving, Texas distribution facility, eliminating 60 jobs as part of a restructuring.

Distribution centers and warehouses reduce staff

Several logistics and distribution operators have announced layoffs tied to restructuring, contract losses or network consolidation.

Third-party logistics provider Saddle Creek Logistics Services plans to lay off 151 workers at a warehouse facility in Bessemer, Alabama.

GEODIS Logistics will eliminate 105 jobs at a facility in Ashville, Ohio, after a client ceased operations at the site.

GXO Logistics also filed notice that it will shut down operations for a client at its West Jefferson, Ohio, warehouse, affecting 102 workers.

In California, CJ Logistics America announced 71 layoffs at a warehouse facility in Fontana scheduled for April 30.

Rail and intermodal logistics hit by contract losses

Intermodal logistics operator Parsec LLC is closing multiple rail cargo handling facilities after losing key customer contracts.

The company will shut down a Columbus, Ohio, intermodal terminal, eliminating 115 jobs by May 1.

A WARN filing with Ohio regulators shows the layoffs will affect loader operators, mechanics, warehouse staff and management roles.

Parsec is also closing a Jacksonville, Florida facility after losing a major customer contract.

In North Charleston, South Carolina, Parsec is shutting down an intermodal logistics operation at the Norfolk Southern terminal, eliminating 39 jobs.

Parcel network restructuring leads to FedEx closure

Package delivery giant FedEx is closing a facility in Pittston, Pennsylvania, affecting 63 employees as part of its “Network 2.0” initiative aimed at consolidating package pickup, transportation and delivery operations.

The company said the effort is designed to simplify its network through a “one van, one neighborhood” delivery model intended to improve efficiency.

Manufacturing and trucking supply chain layoffs

Manufacturing operations tied to heavy-duty trucking and industrial supply chains are also reducing staff.

Furniture manufacturer Ashley Furniture Industries is laying off 266 workers at a manufacturing center in Mesquite, Texas, according to a WARN notice filed with the state on Wednesday.

Commercial Vehicle Group, which produces seating systems used by truck manufacturers such as Freightliner and Mack, will lay off 76 workers at its Bostrom Seating plant in Piedmont, Alabama, amid softer demand in truck and construction markets.

In Ohio, Boelter Companies is closing its Custom Deco manufacturing facility in Toledo, affecting 63 workers.

Grocery and produce closures add more layoffs

Retail grocery and food distribution operations are also contributing to the job losses.

Several California grocery locations are shutting down:

• Food 4 Less #364, Inglewood — 64 employees affected.
• Foods Co. #371, Sacramento — 58 employees affected.

Produce distributor FreshKO Produce Services will close a facility in Fresno, eliminating 58 jobs.

Meanwhile, a Walgreens distribution center in Houston is slated to close, affecting 159 workers, as the retailer consolidates its distribution network.

Recent layoffs and closures across supply chain companies

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 06:30

Sleepless In Sweden

Recent data from a Statista Consumer Insights survey casts light on the prevalence of sleeping problems in different countries, affecting more than a third of respondents in 25 out of the 32 populations surveyed.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Respondents were asked if they had experienced a sleep disorder in the 12 months prior to the survey.

Additionally, Statista's Felix Richter notes that in all of the countries included on the chart, women were more likely to have experienced a sleep disorder than men.

In Sweden, the country where trouble sleeping was most prevalent, 56 percent of women had experienced symptoms of sleep disorder in the past year versus 45 percent of men.

In the U.S., there was a 4 percentage-point difference (39 percent women to 35 percent men).

According to the Sleep Foundation, women and people assigned female at birth are more likely to experience insomnia.

Researchers say this is the result of a combination of sex-based factors such as hormone production as well as gender-based differences, which “may be driven by social and cultural disparities”.

Predispositions to certain physical or mental health issues are also cited as possible factors believed to lead to higher rates of sleeplessness in women.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 05:45

"Entirely Demonic": Catherine Austin Fitts Warns Financial Tsunami Coming Because Of Programmable Money

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Catherine Austin Fitts (CAF), publisher of “The Solari Report,” has been pushing gold (and silver) as an investment for the past few years.  

The record high price, even though both have come down in price a bit, has proven her right–again.  Now, there is an overpowering change getting ready to hit the world.  CAF says:

“What I call the Rothschild syndicate wants programmable money, and they don’t want anybody stopping it...

That’s number one. 

The second thing is most people do not understand what is coming in terms of what the distributive ledger technology is going to do, what it is going to do to the currency markets, to the stock and bond markets.  It is bubble economics and also control.

...We are talking about something that is entirely demonic.

  Let me give you a few examples:  Mr. Smith, this is the government calling, and we know you have three children.  We want one of them transgendered.  You can choose which one, but if you don’t transgender one of them, we will turn off your money, and you won’t be able to feed your other children.”

CAF goes on, “You take the Covid shot or we turn your money off..."

"Programmable money is spatial control as well. 

If we went to a 15-minute city, your programmable money would not work outside the 15-minute city.  It’s not just programmable money. 

If you have an electric car and you try to leave the 15-minute city, your car will not work.”

This is why CAF is working tirelessly with multiple state legislatures to put the brakes on programmable money before it’s too late. 

CAF says, “We say get the guardrails up now, and don’t wait for the last mile of the highway..."

"Look at how the market is exploding.  If you wait, it could be too late. 

The horse has left the barn without the bridal and without the saddle...

Anybody in state government who is working to protect freedom, we want to do everything we can to help you do that. 

You can do that by protecting cash or by putting up the guardrails now so a distributive ledger cannot be used to destroy human and Constitutional rights.  That’s what our focus is now.”

CAF talks about the how energy prices are the number one cost to produce just about anything. 

CAF is concerned that the Iran war could impede fertilizer production.  CAF says:

“We could see enormous dislocations in the food market with supply chains and prices going up. . ..  If this continues, we could be talking, especially in lower income countries, of real famine on a mass scale.”

In closing, CAF says, “Gold is very attractive now as an investment position..."

"...Everybody should have a core position. . .. For general trend and direction, I don’t know of a better trend and direction than gold and silver right now.”

There is much more in the 52-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes One-on-One with the Publisher of The Solari Report, Catherine Austin Fitts, as she takes us to school on the tsunami of change hitting us all in in the face for 3.14.26.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 05:00

Where The Super Rich Reside

According to the Forbes World's Billionaires List of 2026, many of the world's richest people are citizens of the United States.

As Statista's Katharina Buchholz shows in the following chart, the country counted 989 billionaires per the list's last release Tuesday.

This is far ahead of the second-ranked country, China (with 610) and third-placed India with 229.

You will find more infographics at Statista

According to Forbes, 390 new billionaire were minted in the last year, translating into more than one a day and pushing up the number of billionaires worldwide to more than 3,400.

This included the first billionaires from Afghanistan and Pakistan. Despite coming from neighboring countries, the two men's success stories are different. While Afghan national Mirwais Azizi is a 63-year-old real estate developer based in Dubai, Pakistan's Sualeh Asif is only 26 and co-founded AI coding tool Cursor in the U.S. with three friends from MIT.

After the U.S., China and India, Germany has the biggest number of billionaires at 212, followed by Russia at 147.

Also new on the list in 2026 are well-known celebrities like singer Beyonce Knowles-Carter, tennis player Roger Federer, rapper Dr. Dre and movie director James Cameron.

Other notable female newcomers include China’s Zhou Xiaoping, who is the cofounder of Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems and entered the list with the highest female self-made fortune of 2026 ($3.8 billion), as well as Amelie Voigt Trejes, the world's youngest billionaire ever at 20 after inheriting part of a family fortune from her grandfather, the cofounder of Brazilian electrical equipment company WEG.

2026 also saw a new all-time youngest self-made billionaire in Surya Midha. The 22-year old American with Indian roots cofounded AI recruiting tool Mercor with two university friends just slightly older. Another Brazilian, Luana Lopes Lara, is now the youngest ever self-made female billionaire at 29 after cofounding prediction market firm Kalshi.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 04:15

German Police Raid AfD Lawmaker's Home Over Years-Old Social Media Posts

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Police and prosecutors in Munich carried out searches on Friday morning at the private residence and Bavarian State Parliament office of AfD lawmaker René Dierkes, reportedly in connection with alleged insults and social media posts dating back several years.

Dierkes, 34, who represents the Munich-East constituency in the Bavarian State Parliament, said the investigation concerns satirical posts and memes published roughly two years ago on his X account by a staff member who has since left his employment. He said authorities are also examining an alleged insult attributed to him by a former party member, which reportedly dates back five years.

In a statement released after the search, Dierkes described the investigation as politically motivated and accused rivals of attempting to discredit him.

Pressemeldung zur Hausdurchsuchung beim Landtagsabgeordneten René Dierkes

Heute Morgen fand in meiner Privatwohnung sowie in meinem Landtagsbüro eine Hausdurchsuchung statt. Hintergrund sind etwa zwei Jahre alte Postings auf meinem X-Account, die von einem Mitarbeiter verfasst… pic.twitter.com/Ev1mORVHPZ

— Rene Dierkes MdL (@ReneDierkesAfD) March 13, 2026

“The background is posts on my X account that are about two years old and were written by an employee who no longer works for me,” he said, adding that an internal party rival who previously sought public office had launched “a defamation campaign against my person.”

“I will take action against this political witch hunt,” he said.

According to reporting from Bild, police officers appeared at both Dierkes’ Munich residence and his parliamentary office as part of the operation. The exact legal basis for the search was initially unclear, and the Munich public prosecutor’s office had not immediately issued a detailed statement explaining the move.

AfD state chairman Stephan Protschka sharply criticized the action, suggesting it reflected political bias by authorities.

“It is supposedly about alleged insults. In my view, this is a humiliating decision by the authorities against the opposition,” Protschka told Bild.

The search has raised additional questions because the Bavarian State Parliament did not formally vote to lift Dierkes’ parliamentary immunity beforehand.

According to Bild, investigators proceeded under a “simplified procedure,” a legal mechanism that allows searches without a prior parliamentary vote in certain cases.

Dierkes, who was elected to the Bavarian legislature in October 2023 and serves as chairman of the AfD’s Munich-East district association, has been under observation by Bavaria’s domestic intelligence service since April 2025.

The monitoring followed a review by the Bavarian State Office for the Protection of the Constitution, which concluded that surveillance was “proportionate.”

According to a response by the Bavarian state government to parliamentary inquiries from Green and Social Democratic lawmakers, officials identified statements by Dierkes that allegedly promoted “an ethnic concept of the people contrary to human dignity” and demanded “remigration in an unconstitutional manner,” as cited by BR24 last year.

Authorities also cited his significant reach on social media and his role as a prominent figure within the AfD’s regional leadership structure.

The social media reach point is contentious — Dierkes has just 6,800 followers on X and 5,600 followers on Facebook.

Dierkes has firmly rejected the state office’s interpretation of his remarks and threatened legal action last year.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/16/2026 - 03:30