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Iran Rejects Direct US Talks Amid Escalation As Israel Attacks Key Petrochemical Plant At South Pars Gas Field

Iran Rejects Direct US Talks Amid Escalation As Israel Attacks Key Petrochemical Plant At South Pars Gas Field Summary: 

  • A Sunday night Axios report on a US-proposed 45-day ceasefire has by Monday morning been rejected by Iran: diplomatic talks are "absolutely incompatible with ultimatums, crimes, and threats to commit war crimes," the Foreign Ministry said.

  • Israel strikes large petrochemical plant at South Pars, which is responsible for half of the country’s petrochemical production.

  • There's been another extension of what had been a 10-day deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz - a deadline that was initially set to expire on Monday evening. Now Trump says Iran has until 8pm on Tuesday.

  • Trump warned Iran on Easter Sunday to 'Open the Fuckin' Strait' or "you'll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah."

*  *  *

Israel Attacks Petrochemical Plant At South Pars Gas Field

Iranian state media is reporting a Monday attack which targeted the South Pars petrochemical facility in Asaluyeh. "A few minutes ago, the sound of several explosions was heard from the South Pars Petrochemical complex in Asaluyeh," according to the Fars report. Also Tasnim describes an attack on two utilities companies in Assaluyeh which have cut off electricity supply to petrochemical units. The same outlet revealed the following details:

  • Petrochemical plants in Asaluyeh, including Jam and Damavand, were targeted.
  • Mobin and Damavand companies, which supplied electricity, water, and oxygen to the Assaluyeh petrochemical plants, have been targeted.
  • Pars Petrochemical is safe and has not been damaged.

Israel has announced it was behind the attack, per Washington Post. Does this violate Israel's prior pledge to Trump to not take unilateral action against South Pars? This as the threatened major US escalation against vital energy and civilian infrastructure looms:

Israel attacked a key petrochemical plant at Iran’s massive South Pars natural gas field and killed a top Revolutionary Guard commander, putting into question the negotiations aimed at getting the U.S. and Tehran to reach a ceasefire.

Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed what he called "a powerful strike on the largest petrochemical facility in Iran" that’s responsible for half of the country’s petrochemical production. Israel’s military spokesperson, Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, said there would be “no immunity” for Iran as talks progress.

In Israel, Iranian missiles have continued to fall at steady pace, with Israel's emergency services reporting that at least 28 impact sites in central Israel on Monday, describing that cluster munitions have resulted in damage. Ramat Gan, Bnei Brak, and Givatayim were struck, and a man in his 40s was "moderately wounded" - according to local reports.

Iran Rejects Any Ceasefire That is Temporary: 'Normalization of War Crimes'

Iran rejected a temporary ceasefire in the US-Israeli war, stating it would give adversaries time to regroup and prepare for continued conflict; however, a foreign ministry statement did not specifically reference the 45-day proposal being reported by Axios.

"We are calling for an end to the war and for preventing its recurrence," foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said, according to Iran’s state news agency IRNA. Analysts have long understood that Tehran's retaliation on Gulf states and Israel has been so fierce because it seeks to deter any potential future attack. Iranian leaders fear that without proper and final resolution, the country will just get attacked again, be it a year from now, or even several years down the road.

The foreign ministry also on Monday stated that Iran has prepared a response to US demands to end the war and will announce it "when necessary," referring to the 15-point list conveyed by Washington to Tehran through Pakistan - which Baghaei reiterated is "extremely excessive and unusual and illogical." He further reminded the world that Tehran has a "very bitter experience of negotiating with the US." The idea of talks at this moment remain "absolutely incompatible with ultimatums, crimes, and threats to commit war crimes," Baghaei continued.

Once again, an avalanche of headlines on 'negotiations' were issued hours before markets open Monday morning...

Separately, Iranian Armed Forces spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaghari stated Monday that if attacks on civilian targets continue, Iran’s retaliation will expand significantly and losses will be "several times greater," according to Tasnim.

Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told his French counterpart on Monday related to Trump's threats to wipe out civilian infrastructure, "This threat amounts to the normalization of war crimes and genocide."

Fresh Axios Report of US-Proposed 45-Day Ceasefire

With a potential globally-catastrophic escalation looming on Tuesday, Middle East mediators are communicating with Iran and the United States about a proposed 45-day ceasefire, Axios reported Sunday evening. The ceasefire is being positioned as the first of a two-phased deal, with the second phase being a negotiated, permanent end to the war that Israel and the United States started with a surprise attack on Feb. 28 amid ongoing negotiations. 

The slim ray of hope comes after President Trump issued a profane, Easter Sunday threat to make life miserable for 90 million Iranians whom he just weeks ago promised to liberate:  "Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin' Strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in Hell."    

In addition to vitriol, Trump's social media posts also brought an extension of what had been a 10-day deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz -- a deadline that was initially set to expire on Monday evening. Now Trump says Iran has until 8pm on Tuesday. In the interim, Trump has scheduled a 1pm news conference on Monday. The described it as a press conference "with the military," suggesting it may be focused on celebrating US Special Forces' retrieval of a downed US Air Force weapons officer over the weekend. Held in the Oval Office, it may be open to only a small subset of the White House press corps. 

The combination of the ever-so-slightly encouraging Axios report and the Trump presser could make for the latest of many market whipsaws since the war started. Trump told Axios that there are "deep negotiations" ongoing with a "good chance" of success. On the other hand, he was quick to add that "if they don't make a deal, I am blowing up everything over there." Trump's threats to lay waste to Iran's civilian infrastructure has elicited Iranian promises to retaliate in kind across the Persian Gulf. In a video issued Sunday, Iran threatened "complete and utter annihilation" of OpenAI's $30 billion Stargate data center in Dubai. 

While the precise nature of the negotiations is unclear, Axios reported that Pakistani, Egyptian and Turkish mediators are at the center of the conversations, and that there have been "text messages sent" between Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Significantly, the outlets' sources said mediators couldn't foresee a full re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz until a final deal is inked. 

  • The mediators want to see whether Iran could take partial step on [nuclear enrichment and Strait of Hormuz navigation] in the first phase of the deal. They are also working on steps the Trump administration could take to give Iran guarantees that the ceasefire will not be temporary and that the war will not resume.
  • The Iranian officials made clear to the mediators they don't want to be caught in a Gaza or Lebanon situation where there is a ceasefire on paper, but that the U.S. and Israel can attack again whenever they want to.  -- Axios

Going into these latest conversations, the gap between US and Iranian demands was enormous. Among other things, Trump is demanding that Iran weaken the ballistic missile program it now used twice to retaliate against US-Israeli aggression, and to cease any nuclear enrichment, even though Iran is otherwise privileged to do so as a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (a status Israel lacks). Iran has demanded reparations for the damage caused by Israeli and US attacks, the closure of US bases in the region, the lifting of all sanctions, and a hard-wired guarantee against more rounds of intermittent US-Israeli attacks. Regarding the latter demand, some have envisioned passage of a US law that would cut off aid to Israel if it attacks Iran again. 

Speculation that Pilot Rescue was Cover for Uranium Ground Op

Beyond the potential for escalation via attacks on civilian infrastructure, there's also the potential for a US commitment of ground forces. Trump may feel emboldened about proposed operations to seize Kharg Island and/or strait-adjacent territory following the dramatic weekend rescue of a downed F-15E crew member -- which itself brought the first known deployment of soldiers on Iranian soil. (We should note that there's a growing number of veterans and other people -- pointing to factors like the involvement of C-130 cargo craft and the location of their makeshift airfield -- theorizing that the rescue was actually a failed attempt to capture Iran's cache of 60%-enriched uranium.)

Meanwhile, there's little to indicate that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is interested in deescalation.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/06/2026 - 08:15

JPM's Dimon Warns Of "Skunk At Party," Talks Credit Cycles, Touts U.S. Military Power

JPM's Dimon Warns Of "Skunk At Party," Talks Credit Cycles, Touts U.S. Military Power

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon began his annual shareholder letter on Monday by tying the bank's legacy to the nation's history: "In 2026, America is celebrating its 250th anniversary. This year, we are also celebrating the 227th anniversary of JPMorgan Chase, which was founded in April 1799."

Quick Summary 

Dimon used his annual letter to tout another year of record financial results, while warning that investors may be underestimating the risks building across the global economy. These risks include the U.S.-Iran conflict entering its second month, trade negotiations that exacerbate geopolitical tensions, the convergence of surging oil prices and inflation, and elevated asset prices.

Touting 2025 JPM Results 

The largest U.S. bank said 2025 revenue rose to a record $185.6 billion, while net income reached $57 billion and return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) was 20%. JPM also lifted its quarterly dividend twice during the year, to $1.50 a share from $1.25, as it continued to note the strength of its balance sheet. 

The letter also highlighted JPMorgan's significant role in the US and global economies. Dimon said the bank extended credit and raised capital totaling $3.3 trillion in 2025, moves nearly $12 trillion a day across more than 120 currencies and 160 countries, and safeguards more than $41 trillion in assets. 

Risks

Beyond the numbers, Dimon warned about "some scenarios that would result in a recession, which generally reduces inflation, and other scenarios that would lead to a recession with inflation (stagflation—where inflationary forces overcome deflationary ones)."

He said the "skunk at the party" could emerge this year and "would be inflation slowly going up, as opposed to slowly going down," adding, "This alone could cause interest rates to rise and asset prices to drop. Interest rates are like gravity to almost all asset prices. Falling asset prices at one point can change sentiment rapidly and cause a flight to cash."

Tailwinds 

However, Dimon pointed out, "there are lots of tailwinds helping the U.S. in 2026, including:

  • Increasing fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill. Our economists believe this will inject another $300 billion (effectively 1% of GDP) into the economy. This has to be very modestly inflationary this year.

  • Benefits from the Fed's purchase of $40 billion of additional securities each month, which is supposed to be reduced to $20 billion–$25 billion this April. At a minimum, this supports asset prices and helps ensure there is no liquidity squeeze in the financial system.

  • Positive effects of comprehensive deregulatory policies. This was badly needed and long overdue. Change is clearly evident in bank regulations that will free up capital and liquidity, which can be lent out (and we already see this happening), and in deregulation across many other industries, from energy to home building. It is fair to say that actions taken have clearly increased confidence and animal spirits. This should add to productivity and be modestly deflationary this year.

  • Huge increase in AI-driven capital spending and construction by the five hyperscalers. In 2025, this number was $450 billion, and in 2026, it will be approximately $725 billion. While AI will clearly drive productivity, which is generally good for inflation in the long run, all of this spending is probably inflationary in the short run.

Larger Risks

He warned of a series of unresolved "larger risks" shifting beneath the surface of the economy, "like tectonic plates—always moving and periodically causing earthquakes and volcanoes when they crash into each other."

Those larger risks include:

  • First and foremost, geopolitics. Russia's war in Ukraine and its ongoing sabotage in Europe and now the war in Iran and its potential effects on energy prices can cause events that are unpredictable. We all hope these wars get properly resolved. But war is the realm of uncertainty, as each side in a war determines what it wants to do (as is often said, "the enemy gets a vote"), and these conflicts involve many countries. Not only do they have a major impact on the nations at war, but they also have an impact on countries and economies across the globe that are not directly involved in war. Nations that are heavily dependent upon imported energy are already seeing the effects. And it's not just energy, it's commodity products that are byproducts of oil and gas, like fertilizer and helium. And given our complex global supply chains, countries are experiencing disruptions in shipbuilding, food and farming, among others. The outcome of current geopolitical events may very well be the defining factor in how the future global economic order unfolds — then again, it may not.

  • High global sovereign deficits and debt. Global deficits are significantly elevated, particularly during what has been a relatively healthy global economy and, until recently, a time of peace — the deficit globally is at an extremely high 5%, while global sovereign debt is at all-time highs. The current forecast from the Congressional Budget Office has our debt-to-GDP ratio going from 100% today to 120% in 2036. High government debt is somewhat offset by low consumer debt, which was nearly 100% of GDP in 2007 and is now below 70%. Similarly, corporate debt is at a fairly normal healthy level of 45%. High and increasing government debt will eventually have to be dealt with — the right way would be to deal with it now before it becomes a problem; the wrong way would be to let it become a crisis, which, in my opinion, is probably the likely outcome. Importantly, almost 60% of government spending is for entitlements and is not discretionary. This makes the job that much harder. A crucial note on the importance of growth: If interest rates went down 100 basis points and GDP grew at 3%, the debt-to-GDP ratio could actually start to go down instead of going up.

  • High asset prices and very low credit spreads. In and of itself, this is not a bad thing. Household net worth as a percentage of GDP is now 560%. The high during the housing peak in 2006 was 460%. But this also means that anything less than positive outcomes could have a dramatic impact on global markets. Rapidly decreasing asset prices can sometimes create a self-reinforcing loop. It's always good to remember that prices are set by the marginal buyers and sellers — which, on the average day, is only a small fraction of asset owners. And it's also good to remember that foreigners own almost $30 trillion of U.S. equities and bonds. While U.S. investments and the U.S. dollar are generally havens of security in a troubled world, that didn't stop recessions and bad markets in prior times.

  • Trade 2.0. The U.S. tariffs themselves had only minor effects on inflation or growth, and were only one straw on the camel's back. But the trade battles are clearly not over, and it should be expected that many nations are analyzing how and with whom they should create trade arrangements. This is causing a realignment of economic relations in the world. While some of this is necessary for national security and resiliency, which are paramount, it is hard to figure out what the long-term effects will be.

  • U.S. and China relations. This relationship is critical to the whole world and is also impacted by the events mentioned above. The United States and China clearly have different systems, values, goals and objectives, and while both sides are currently engaging, we have to expect that there will be some bumps in the road — maybe even some large ones. We should all hope that ongoing proper engagement continues to lead to what may be a competitive but peaceful future.

  • Private credit and credit in general. The leveraged private credit market totals $1.8 trillion. As a comparison, the U.S. high yield bond market totals $1.5 trillion, and the bank syndicated leveraged loan market totals $1.7 trillion. Taking a wider view, the total market size of investment grade bonds is $13 trillion. And the total market value of all residential mortgage securities and loans is also $13 trillion. In the great scheme of things, private credit probably does not present a systemic risk.

Credit Cycle

Dimon continued, "I do believe that when we have a credit cycle, which will happen one day, losses on all leveraged lending in general will be higher than expected, relative to the environment." We've been extensively tracking the cracks emerging across credit (latest here). 

Geopolitics

On the topic of what appears to be Eurasia on fire, with multiple warzones raging, Dimon emphasized three critical issues about preserving the American empire:

  1. The United States must maintain the premier military force in the world.

  2. The United States must maintain its preeminent economic position in the world, which also requires reigniting the American Dream.

  3. The United States must manage its foreign economic affairs to strengthen the U.S. economy and that of our critical allies so that the first two points remain true.

US Military & American Empire 

All about the empire... Dimon said, "We at JPMorganChase feel an enormous responsibility to our nation and many others — and we remind ourselves that many companies will only thrive if their countries thrive. With the right policies and committed actions, the United States will maintain the strongest military and strongest economy and will remain the bastion of freedom and the arsenal of democracy."

Dimon, who turned 70 in early March, has transformed JPMorgan into the nation's largest and most profitable bank, making it one of the core pillars of the U.S. financial system. This year's annual letter carries a warning that the world is becoming more fractured and, in at least one key region, engulfed in war. The broader message is unmistakable: American power is supreme, and JPMorgan intends to help preserve the empire for decades to come.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/06/2026 - 08:10

Slower EV Sales Will Be The "New Normal" For Tesla Amidst AI, Robotics Push

Slower EV Sales Will Be The "New Normal" For Tesla Amidst AI, Robotics Push

Tesla Inc. is increasingly betting its future on AI, autonomy and robotics — but it still depends on selling cars to finance that shift, and that core business is under pressure, Bloomberg reported this week. 

Wall Street estimates point to roughly 372,160 vehicle deliveries last quarter. That would mark an 11% increase from a weak year-ago period, yet still place among Tesla’s softer recent results and far below its near-500,000 peak quarters. Earlier headwinds — including political backlash involving Elon Musk and Model Y production interruptions — weighed on prior performance.

A slower pace of growth may persist. Demand for EVs is cooling globally, US buyers no longer benefit from federal tax credits, and Tesla’s lineup is narrowing as Models S and X are phased out, all while competition intensifies.

“If they can show that there’s stability in the numbers without the tax credit — and they can, at least with the delivery number — I think that that would be a win,” said Gene Munster.

Bloomberg notes that regional trends are mixed: Europe remains subdued, while China is rebounding, with February shipments from Shanghai surging 91%, according to preliminary industry data. Investors are closely watching whether demand can hold without incentives.

At the same time, attention is shifting away from quarterly deliveries. Many investors are more focused on Tesla’s long-term bets — including robotaxis, the Cybercab and the Optimus robot — with the car business increasingly seen as a means to fund those efforts. After reaching a record high in December, the stock has since cooled.

Garrett Nelson, senior vice president of equity research at CFRA said: “It’s not so much about the deliveries, it’s more about bigger picture like the Terafab announcement, and this spending binge that Tesla is embarking on. Concerns regarding this explosion in spending are really weighing on sentiment towards the company.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/06/2026 - 07:50

EU Parliament Shocks Brussels: Chat Surveillance Rejected, Deportation Centers Approved

EU Parliament Shocks Brussels: Chat Surveillance Rejected, Deportation Centers Approved

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

Brussels’ assault on industry and small-to-medium businesses is a child of German ideology. This applies not only to the absurd climate battle; German statism also reveals itself in the proposed spying system of EU-wide chat surveillance. The open-border policies, executed in the style of a hippie state, can be attributed equally and without hesitation to Germany’s political record of this century.

Three dramatic political miscalculations, three intellectual detonations, leading to devastating societal consequences. All made in Germany, but certainly not made for Germany.

Berlin’s climate crusade and hippie ideology have inflicted severe economic and societal damage on the European Union, sparking a social movement that points to deep internal cultural and social conflicts.

The next generation will struggle to preserve its identity in Europe and assert itself politically. That this identity is not even articulated on a national German level guarantees the exclusion of the AfD under the Brandmauer-Ägide.

Colorful and intellectually reduced coalitions of SED communists, red and green socialists, and the statist CDU, randomly blended together, shape this Brandmauer idyll in Germany. The parliamentary Thursday in Brussels must have struck like a whip.

The European People’s Party (EPP), including the CDU/Union, joined forces with three right-conservative parties, among them the AfD, France’s Rassemblement National, and the Patriots for Europe (PFE), against the three ideological pillars of the globalist, German-inspired political restructuring project of the EU.

The political hammer of the day was undoubtedly the EU Parliament’s resolution to force the EU Council and Commission into a debate over establishing migrant deportation centers in third countries. A decision is expected in June. Yet at this point, the Parliament itself is powerless, as it famously has no legislative initiative rights.

We can therefore anticipate that political undermining of this resolution will begin immediately.

A shock, at least, for the Berlin political-media bubble, which is primarily engaged in covering up the consequences of uncontrolled migration and systematically pursuing and sanctioning criticism of the open-border regime with a comprehensive censorship apparatus.

Following the migration decision, the same parliamentary majority struck again against one of Berlin and Brussels’ favorite political projects. They also rejected the push for comprehensive private chat surveillance. This means the proposed EU regulation for so-called end-to-end encryption, which could have decrypted massive messaging content, is temporarily off the table.

How this will proceed remains unclear. Chancellor Friedrich Merz already announced a national solution for this issue on the same day. He seems in no hurry to assert ultimate control over citizens’ private communications.

For – and Thursday in the European Parliament demonstrated this – the wind is blowing increasingly against the German party cartel, and it comes from the patriotic side of the house.

Opposition is growing. Strong political forces like Italy’s government under Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni are shaping substantial opposition, which in both rhetoric and action resists both the climate cult and the open-border policies.

Multiculturalism, alongside the green degrowth agenda, counts among Germany’s political priorities. And the German chief ideologues are increasingly losing their allies in Brussels.

It won’t be long before Berlin could indeed stand isolated. This was indicated by the third surprising vote on Thursday.

Finally, the Parliament voted to loosen the EU supply chain law and reduce, above all, the environmental due diligence obligations for companies.

What purpose does it serve to require companies to document and analyze arbitrarily set social and ecological standards along complex supply chains, even down to primary production?

Brussels’ bureaucracy pushes such regulations deep into national power structures. We know this mechanism from CO2 taxation: German ideology is declared general EU regulation via Brussels, a new source of revenue is created, and a sanctions mechanism is established. At its core, this policy represents pure isolationism, dressed in the garb of European moral posturing with a distinctly German flavor.

How far must the European economic crisis penetrate society before the conservative-patriotic coalition can bring itself not to halt halfway but to ban bureaucratic monsters like the supply chain law permanently into the eternal hunting grounds of political delusions?

An interesting parliamentary week in otherwise sleepy Brussels ends with a bang, raising the question: is there perhaps reason to hope that the ideologically stuck political system can heal itself?

Could the geopolitical pressure, particularly from the United States, enable the conservative-patriotic coalition to gain the upper hand within the EU?

Ultimately, it is up to voters to create clarity at the national level and enforce a course correction. Should Germans, however, continue to resist a paradigm shift, the country could face mid-term isolation on a European level, as the wind there clearly blows from a conservative-patriotic direction.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe is a German graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/06/2026 - 07:25

'New Iranian Terror Group' Claims Responsibility For Attacks Across Europe

'New Iranian Terror Group' Claims Responsibility For Attacks Across Europe

A group that did not exist online or anywhere else before March 9, 2026, has suddenly claimed responsibility for a string of low-tech arson and attempted bombings at synagogues and US banks across Belgium, the Netherlands, France, and the UK.

Police in Paris at the scene of the thwarted attack on the offices of Bank of America © Nathan Laine/Bloomberg

Mainstream outlets like FT and counter-terrorism analysts are rushing to label Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia (HAYI, or "Ashab al-Yamin") as an Iranian intelligence "hybrid warfare" front. But a closer look raises serious red flags: the group's amateurish execution, suspiciously perfect timing amid the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, and a pattern that seems tailor-made to stoke the antisemitism narrative and justify further crackdowns on Tehran and its proxies.

The first claim surfaced on March 9 via Telegram channels tied to Iraqi pro-Iranian militias. Two days later, HAYI took credit for firebombing a synagogue in Liège, Belgium. Subsequent claims included attacks on a Rotterdam synagogue (March 13), a Jewish school in Amsterdam (March 14), a site linked to Bank of New York Mellon in Amsterdam (March 16), Hatzola Jewish ambulances in London's Golders Green (March 23), and a foiled plot outside Bank of America in Paris (March 28). An attempted synagogue strike in Heemstede, Netherlands, was also stopped on March 20. Some other claims, including an alleged Greece attack - appear to be outright disinformation.

European police have rounded up suspects aged 14-23. In the Netherlands, at least 10 arrests. France charged four, including minors. In the UK, three young men (two Brits aged 19–20 and a 17-year-old dual national) were charged with the London ambulance arson, with a fourth arrest. 

On arson attack on community ambulances in north London last month © Henry Nicholls/AFP/Getty Images

Orthodox Jewish communities in London and elsewhere have their own ambulances operated by Hatzola (also spelled Hatzolah or Hatzalah), a private volunteer-run, community-funded emergency medical service.

French prosecutors revealed one teen claimed he was recruited on Snapchat, offered €500–€1,000, and initially told the "bomb" was revenge on a cheating girlfriend - before being instructed to film it for the cause. Many suspects were released on bail.

The "group" that wasn't there yesterday

Researchers at the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT) note HAYI had "no known references, neither online nor offline" before March 9. Its statements contain linguistic quirks, misspellings, and inconsistencies. Claims were amplified almost immediately by channels linked to IRGC-aligned militias—yet the operation relies on disposable online recruits for pocket-change jobs. Julian Lanchès at ICCT called it unusual and suggested an Iranian intelligence project for deniability.

Doubts regarding the authenticity of HAYI are, however, not only raised by the appearance of its Telegram channel and the likely falsely claimed attack in Greece, but also by inconsistencies within the claim material itself. For example, the videos contain noticeable linguistic errors. Further, the Arabic inscription beneath the group’s logo, which closely resembles the flag of Hezbollah and other pro-Axis groups, except for featuring a Soviet SVD sniper rifle instead of the more typical AK-style imagery, includes multiple mistakes, including the misspelling of the word “Islamic.”

Skeptics aren't buying it. The Grayzone's Wyatt Reed highlighted glaring questions: Why aren't these "Iranian" operatives hitting targets in countries most aggressively involved in the war on Iran? Why the focus on symbolic Jewish and U.S. bank sites with minimal actual damage and zero casualties? Why do some communiqués contain phrasing that reads like it was generated with odd Israeli terminology quirks (e.g., references to "the Land of Israel")? And why were multiple suspects quickly released on bail while the "terror campaign" narrative rolls on?

MintPress News investigative piece by David Miller goes further, arguing HAYI looks like a fabricated "fake Iranian terror group" invented precisely to accelerate efforts to proscribe the IRGC as a terrorist organization across Europe - long a goal of pro-Israel lobbying networks amid the Iran war.

Cui bono? The timing is impeccable

The wave of attacks kicked off right as U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran intensified in late February 2026. Jewish communities were already on edge from post-October 7, 2023, tensions. UK groups like the Community Security Trust linked the London incident to rising antisemitism. Dutch officials openly probed "Iranian involvement." U.S. banks in Paris told staff to work from home. All of it feeds a story that Iran is exporting chaos. 

Iran's London embassy flatly denied involvement, calling the claims "unfounded" and reaffirming non-interference. But in the current climate, denials are dismissed as standard procedure.

Online discourse is split  - with some X posts and independent commentary (including from figures who faced backlash) have pointed to Mossad-style operations, citing historical precedents and the fact that the attacks generate maximum narrative value with minimum real risk. A UK mayor in Bath resigned after sharing posts suggesting the Hatzola ambulance arson was staged.

Even some mainstream analysts admit the group operates like a hastily assembled brand.

To analyse the activities of HAYI, we examined its digital footprint, including the first public mentions of the attacks online and the initial dissemination of the corresponding claim videos. This analysis was conducted using the OSINT tools XNetwork and TGStat, which were queried using Arabic-language keywords. In addition, an AI-based detection tool was employed, which indicated that all claim videos were likely genuine recordings. 

There are no known references, neither online nor offline, to HAYI prior to 9 March, when a post of the group was circulated in a Telegram channel seemingly affiliated with the Iraqi pro-Iranian militia Liwa Zulfiqar. In this post, HAYI announced “the start of its military operations against US and Israeli interests around the world,” although it made no reference to the attack against the synagogue in Liège that occurred on the same day. This would suggest that HAYI is a new group, established for the purpose of this bombing campaign. -Julian Lanchès, ICCT

Recruitment teens via Snapchat and Telegram for one-off gigs isn't exactly what hardened jihadists do - is it?

Hybrid warfare... or hybrid narrative?

Pro-Iran voices and anti-war skeptics argue this fits a familiar playbook: manufacture or exaggerate a threat, amplify it through friendly think-tanks (some with clear ideological alignments), then use the panic to justify expanded surveillance, sanctions, military posture, and silencing dissent on Gaza or Iran policy. The low-body-count, property-only focus maximizes fear without crossing into "existential terror" that might backfire.

Whether HAYI is a sloppy Iranian cutout using disposable locals, a pure astroturf job, or something more orchestrated to serve specific agendas remains under investigation. Meanwhile the story has already succeeded in sowing anxiety, polarizing communities, and providing fresh ammunition for those pushing Europe deeper into the Iran conflict.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/06/2026 - 06:15

Europe's Looming Jet Fuel Crisis: Hormuz, Policy Failure, And A Self-Inflicted Supply Shock

Europe's Looming Jet Fuel Crisis: Hormuz, Policy Failure, And A Self-Inflicted Supply Shock

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

Politics has established a new routine. Right at 12 noon, prices at German gas stations now rise day after day.

The government’s pricing decree, a hastily assembled mechanism, acts like an accelerant in an already dramatically strained fuel supply situation. Anyone with rudimentary economic understanding already knew that this form of price regulation would amount to political posturing with fatal consequences.

The market is reacting as expected. Gas station operators anticipate general price increases and indirectly coordinate their pricing behavior. If everyone is only allowed to raise prices once per day, that shot will be fired deliberately — better too high than too low. After that, it becomes a waiting game, observing how competitors react. If the next move can only be a price reduction, the risk can be solved in simple game-theoretical terms: prices are simply kept high as long as competitors do not move.

This creates a cartel-like situation that avoids the risk of rapid price cuts and the resulting loss of individual margins.

Market dynamics thus turn into generalized tactical hesitation. At the same time, political leadership is marked by a striking lack of direction in the face of real scarcity and a rapidly worsening supply situation. Hormuz is exposing the limits of political emergency measures.

The measures taken so far by the German government to curb rising prices are classic political camouflage — a well-rehearsed play for the public. The fundamental question of how to deal with energy imports is not being seriously addressed. Europe must import 60 percent of its energy to meet demand. And the stubborn stance toward Russia, Europe’s most important supplier of energy and raw materials, will likely prove to be the most fatal mistake of European policy — quite an achievement, given that it is already riddled with misjudgments and ideologically driven, erratic decisions.

It is also significant that Brussels’ CO₂ regime has severely damaged Europe’s refining capacity. Europe no longer has the infrastructure required to rapidly activate refining capacity in an emergency and close the widening gap in oil and gas supply, regardless of where new raw materials might be sourced.

EU policy is knowingly and deliberately escalating the current situation. This finding applies in particular to jet fuel imports. Europe’s aviation sector imports around 40 percent of its jet fuel from the Persian Gulf, making the current situation effectively unsolvable.

Since the beginning of the war, the price of jet fuel has roughly doubled, from $800 to $1,800 per ton.

The fact that the United States is taking its time to bring the Strait of Hormuz under military control is putting enormous pressure on European airlines. Scandinavian carrier SAS has already canceled 1,000 flights in April. Lufthansa is also considering grounding parts of its fleet.

Airlines that have hedged their fuel purchases may be able to cushion price increases somewhat — Lufthansa among them — but this does nothing to address the physical shortage of available jet fuel. Europe is on the verge of a massive jet fuel shortfall.

On April 9, the last tanker carrying jet fuel from the Persian Gulf will reach Rotterdam; existing reserves are likely to sustain European flight operations for three to four weeks. What happens afterward remains completely uncertain.

Given the destruction of refining capacity and related infrastructure in the name of the Green Deal, European policymakers find their hands effectively tied. The Hormuz crisis is likely to erupt with full force. If there is no rapid resolution to the Iran conflict, a loss of 40% of available jet fuel simply cannot be compensated.

Brussels could activate one of its favorite instruments and, by means of an EU emergency regulation — similar to the early days of the Ukraine conflict — enforce rationing measures for private jets and long-haul flights. The immediate release of idle commercial refining reserves, particularly in the major port regions of Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Amsterdam, would also be an option. Purchasing expensive jet fuel in North America with heavy subsidies might provide a short-term alternative to prevent a collapse in air traffic.

No matter how the acute fuel shortage in Europe develops in the coming weeks: the damage has already been done. The structural damage caused by European policy in its obsessive fight against CO₂ is now becoming visible in its full dramatic depth. Refining capacity cannot be restored overnight, and the world is now engaged in an intensified competition for the remaining circulating fuel supplies.

That prices will continue to rise for the time being is inevitable; the campaign of degrowth ideologues against individual mobility, air travel, and combustion engines is experiencing an unexpected moment of triumph. 

For civilization as a whole, this is a catastrophe — for individuals who have made themselves comfortable in the subsidized world of idle ideologues, it is indeed a victory. Yet it is unmistakably a Pyrrhic victory.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe is a German graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/06/2026 - 05:30

'Open The F**kin' Strait': Trump Threatens To 'Blow Everything Up' If No Iran Deal By Tuesday

'Open The F**kin' Strait': Trump Threatens To 'Blow Everything Up' If No Iran Deal By Tuesday Summary: 

  • Trump offers Iranian negotiators amnesty, threatens to 'blow everything up' if no deal

  • IEA Head warns Asia (implying Beijing) is panic hoarding fuel

  • Trump warns Iran 'Open the Fuckin' Strait' or "you'll be living in hell'

Trump Talks With Fox Reporter About US-Iran Negotiations 

Shortly after President Trump wrote on Truth Social, "Open the Fuckin' Strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah," the president spoke with Fox News reporter Trey Yingst for 15 minutes early Sunday.

Trump provided Yingst with new details on the behind-the-scenes negotiations with the Iranians and what would happen if Iran does not reach a good-faith deal.

Yingst said Trump told him, "If they don't make a deal, and fast, I'm considering blowing everything up and taking over the oil." The reporter went on to say that the president added that if there is no deal, bridges and power plants will go down all over the country.

Yingst asked the president about the possibility of an agreement with the Iranians. The president said those negotiating on behalf of Tehran have been granted amnesty for now so they can continue the talks.

The reporter noted that Trump thinks a deal can be reached by Monday. Trump said, "I think there's a good chance tomorrow. They're negotiating now."

International Energy Agency Head Warns Of Panic Hoarding Oil In Asia

International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol told the Financial Times this weekend that governments must avoid panic hoarding and refrain from imposing fuel export bans as the Gulf energy shock ripples outward to Asia, Africa, Europe, and eventually reaches the US West Coast.

"I urge all countries not to impose bans or restrictions on exports," Fatih Birol emphasized in the interview. "It is the worst time when you look at the global oil markets. Their trade partners, their allies and their neighbors will suffer as a result."

The FT noted that Birol was "careful not to name China directly," but made very clear his warning was likely aimed at Beijing, which has already moved to restrict exports of critical refined products, including gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.

Birol said that "major countries in Asia who hold major refineries" should reconsider their current bans, adding, "If those countries continue to restrict or totally ban exports, the impact on the Asian markets will be dramatic."

Birol's hoarding warning in Asia comes shortly after the IEA's coordinated release of 400 million barrels from emergency reserves. Such hoarding by major countries would directly undercut efforts to stabilize global energy markets. He also warned that if the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz persists, losses of crude and refined products in April could reach roughly double the levels seen in March.

Early in the US-Iran conflict, energy economist Anas Alhajji joined UBS analysts on a call in which he warned of panic hoarding risks in the oil market. He said that he questioned back in January why the Trump administration was hoarding Venezuela's oil after the Maduro raid, instead of bringing it to market.

Alhajji noted then, "I'm not talking about conspiracy theories. We were criticizing the Trump administration, companies, and trading houses that bought Venezuelan oil, and asking why they weren't able to sell it to end users and why they were hoarding it. Now we know." He was implying that this hoarding was in preparation for Operation Epic Fury.

Asia has been hit hardest so far. JPMorgan's top commodities expert warned about the falling dominoes of how the energy shock transmits from Asia, then spreads to Africa and Europe, before reaching the US, especially California, shortly thereafter.

Source

"Unfortunately, we see that some countries are adding to their existing stocks during our coordinated oil stock release," Birol said. "They are stocking up. This is not helpful. In my view, this is a time for all countries to prove they are responsible members of the international community."

Jeff Currie of Carlyle recently outlined the hoarding risks in a note titled "A Crude Awakening": "The physical shortfall is the trigger; the behavioral response is the multiplier."

Trump Tells Tehran: "Open the Fuckin' Strait" 

Earlier on Easter morning, President Trump unleashed a fierce message on Truth Social: "Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin' Strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in Hell."

Is the pressure building on Trump from the rest of the world (and domestically) to end this 'operation'? And/or are we getting closer to quagmire-inducing boots on the ground?

* * *

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/06/2026 - 05:00

Countries Losing Trust In The US

Countries Losing Trust In The US

Global perceptions of the United States are shifting.

Data from the Munich Security Conference shows a clear decline in trust across advanced and emerging economies.

This visualization, created by Visual Capitalist's Julia Wendling, in partnership with Inigo, provides visual context to these shifting perceptions and highlights where sentiment is changing fastest. These shifts reflect a broader reassessment of alliances in a more uncertain world.

Declining Trust Across Allies

Among traditional allies, the drop in trust is sharp. Canada records the steepest decline at -52%. Italy follows at -21%. France stands at -17%.

 

Germany and Japan also show meaningful declines at -15% and -16%. The United Kingdom is down -13%. These are not isolated moves. They point to weakening confidence across long-standing partnerships.

Policy uncertainty is one key driver. Shifting trade positions and tariff threats have strained economic relationships. Rhetoric around territorial expansion has also raised concerns, including proposals to annex Greenland and suggestions that Canada could become the 51st state.

At the same time, security concerns are rising across Europe. A January 2026 Eurobarometer poll shows 43% of respondents in France and 32% in Germany support higher defense spending. This suggests allies are preparing for a more uncertain security environment.

Emerging Economies Reflect Similar Trends

The pattern extends beyond Western allies. Brazil and South Africa both decline by more than -20%. India and China show smaller but still negative shifts at -10% and -9%.

This suggests a broad reset in global sentiment. It is not driven by one region alone. Strategic uncertainty is rising across markets.

A Rocky Road Ahead

The data points to a more fragmented global landscape. Trust in the United States is declining across multiple regions. At the same time, countries are preparing for greater uncertainty.

Rising defense support in Europe reinforces this shift. Public sentiment is signaling change. Global alliances may be entering a new phase.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/06/2026 - 04:45

Did This Small Device Help Special Forces Locate Downed F-15 Crew

Did This Small Device Help Special Forces Locate Downed F-15 Crew

The New York Times confirmed that U.S. Special Forces operators were behind the recovery of the second crew member from the downed F-15E fighter jet, locating and extracting the weapons systems officer in a daring overnight mission deep inside Iranian territory.

The pilot had been recovered earlier, while the second airman remained hidden from Iranian forces for days as Special Forces operators raced to reach his position before Iranian forces did.

Around 200 soldiers from special operations units participated in the operation, Trump told Axios.

Trump said the Iranian military shot down the F-15 using a shoulder-fired missile. "They got lucky."

Speaking to Axios an hour after confirming the rescue, Trump said that "thousands of these savages were hunting him down," using that loaded term to refer to members of the Iranian military.

"Even the population was looking for him. They offered people a bonus if they captured him."

The officer hid in a crevice in the mountain, Trump said, and the U.S. managed to spot him with its technology.

Trump said that the U.S. military had "beeping information" about the officer's location.

But after a radio message, officials suspected he might be in Iranian captivity and the Iranians were "sending false signals" to try to lure U.S. forces into a trap.

One of the key devices that appears to have helped the survival and recovery of both pilots was Boeing’s Combat Survivor Evader Locator, or CSEL, a secure communications device that can transmit encrypted location and status bursts without exposing their position to enemy forces.

CSEL is a combat search-and-rescue survival radio system used by downed aircrew. Its purpose is to help rescue forces quickly and securely locate, authenticate, and communicate with a survivor without allowing enemy forces to triangulate the survivor’s position.

Israeli-based Ynetnews provided more context on how critical CSEL was to the survival of both aircrew members and how important it was for location and extraction operations:

To evade Iran’s advanced electronic warfare systems, reportedly supplied by China and Russia, the device uses techniques such as ultra-short burst transmissions and rapid frequency hopping.

These signals appear as random background noise to enemy intercept systems, making them extremely difficult to detect or trace.

The CSEL system relies on military communication satellites to relay data from hostile territory to command centers in the United States and other global bases.

The successful extraction of both the pilot and weapons systems officer deep behind enemy lines offered a rare look into the U.S. military’s doctrine for recovering isolated personnel during combat, otherwise known as Combat Search and Rescue, or CSAR.

How long until a U.S. studio makes a sequel to the 2001 action-war film "Behind Enemy Lines"?

Next year? 

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Tyler Durden Mon, 04/06/2026 - 04:35

NATO Was A Big Loser In The Iran War

NATO Was A Big Loser In The Iran War

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

NATO members are not legally required to join any member’s military operations that are not formally sanctioned by the alliance or not aimed at protecting the homelands of the membership.

But they often do just that.

President Donald Trump speaks from the Cross Hall of the White House in Washington on April 1, 2026. Alex Brandon/Pool/Getty Images

Some NATO members joined the Americans in Afghanistan and Iraq on the theory that, in the post-9/11 environment, the Taliban and Saddam Hussein were dangers to all Western security.

They followed the precedent set by America’s 1999 intervention in the distant Balkans, leading a three-month NATO campaign to dismantle Slobodan Milošević’s often bloody ambitions of a Greater Serbia. The United States also joined the 2011 U.N.-approved, and French- and British-inspired, NATO “coalition of the willing” bombing campaign in Libya.

That effort proved a seven-month misadventure—especially since the targeted Libyan strongman Muammar Gaddafi had given up his nuclear weapons program and was desperately trying to cut a deal with the West.

When NATO members in the past have operated unilaterally to defend their own national interests, they have often called on the United States, as NATO’s strongest member, for overt help.

For nearly 40 years, the United States had offered logistical, intelligence, reconnaissance, refueling, and diplomatic support to the French in their unilateral and postcolonial efforts to protect Chad from Libya and, later, Islamists.

During the 1982 Falklands War, a solitary Britain faced enormous logistical challenges in steaming halfway around the world to eject Argentina from its windswept and sparse islands.

U.S. aid was critical to the effort.

So America stepped up to help with intelligence, reconnaissance, the supply of some two million gallons of much-needed gasoline, and crucial restocking of Britain’s depleted Tomahawk missiles.

The American tilt to Britain prompted anger from most Latin American nations of the shared Western hemisphere, as well as from many Hispanic American citizens at home.

No matter—President Ronald Reagan rightly saw the importance of solidarity with a NATO member and a long-time American ally. So he gave Britain a veritable blank check for American aid.

Currently, America has not asked NATO members to help bomb Iran—even though Europe, not the United States, was in range of Iranian ballistic missiles, and soon perhaps nuclear-tipped ones as well.

Europeans are far more vulnerable to Iranian-inspired Islamic terrorism. They are more reliant on foreign oil from the Middle East, some of it passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

All the United States had initially asked for was basing support in disarming a common Western enemy that, for nearly half a century, has slaughtered American diplomats and soldiers and tried to kill a U.S. president and secretary of state.

But most NATO members could not even offer tacit help. Some damned the U.S. effort as either illegal or unnecessary.

The American public watched the British waffle for days over permitting Americans to use their Diego Garcia base.

The Spanish banned American use of their NATO bases and airspace.

The Italians refused a request from American bombers to land and refuel at a Sicilian NATO base.

Many NATO heads of state rebuked the United States to their domestic audiences while, in typical two-faced fashion, publicly offering empty verbal support for the U.S. effort.

The NATO response to an Iranian missile aimed at fellow NATO member Turkey was anemic.

Even worse was the pathetic British reaction to another Iranian missile launch at a British base at Akrotiri, Cyprus.

Yet a successful American effort in neutering a theocratic Iran was clearly of benefit to Europe. So is preventing the international waters of the Strait of Hormuz from becoming a toll booth run by the Iranian mullahs.

Such passivity was in sharp contrast to the five-year-long Ukraine War on the borders of Europe.

Ukraine was not in NATO.

Ukrainian politicos and ambassadors had sometimes played an intrusive, partisan role in the 2016, 2020, and 2024 American presidential elections.

Nonetheless, there were urgent European requests for the United States to honor the spirit of NATO solidarity and to get across the Atlantic as quickly as possible to protect the territorial integrity of Europe.

Yet continental Europe is not intrinsically weak. The combined population of the European Union and European NATO members is around 450 million—a population more than 100 million greater than that of the United States.

These same European nations enjoy an aggregate annual GDP of more than $22 trillion, 10 times the size of the Russian economy.

European diffidence comes on top of the perennial American effort to harangue NATO members to honor their 2 percent of GDP defense commitments—especially in the case of deadbeat Spain and Canada, who for years welched on their pledges.

Trump’s harangues were not what was undermining NATO.

Instead, he ripped off a happy-face scab and exposed a festering wound of increasingly anti-American hypocrisy beneath.

If you wanted to wreck the alliance, there would be no better way than to follow the duplicitous examples of Western European NATO members.

Tyler Durden Mon, 04/06/2026 - 04:00

Long-Term Social Media Use Linked to Depression, Self-Harm in Young People: Study

Long-Term Social Media Use Linked to Depression, Self-Harm in Young People: Study

Authored by Jerry Zhu via The Epoch Times,

An Australian-led study has found children and teenagers who spend more time on social media are more likely to experience depression, self-harm, substance use, and lower achievement later in life.

Published in JAMA Pediatrics, the systematic review examined data from 153 studies consisting of over 350,000 children and adolescents aged between 2 and 19 years, for up to two decades.

“The strongest pattern we saw was between social media use and later problematic media use, suggesting early patterns of engagement may become more entrenched and difficult to manage over time,” said Sam Teague, a senior research fellow at James Cook University.

The study focused on longitudinal research, which follows participants over time and offers stronger insight into how behaviours and outcomes develop.

Teague said previous research in the field often relied on snapshots collected at a single point in time, making it harder to determine whether social media use preceded negative outcomes.

However, she stressed the findings do not prove social media causes harm.

Instead, the results show consistent links between higher use and a range of developmental outcomes, including cognitive, social-emotional, physical health, and motor development.

Amy Orben, a professor at the Medical Research Council Cognition and Brain Sciences Unit at the University of Cambridge, said the relationship may be more complex.

“It may be that children who are already struggling spend more time on social media, rather than social media being the cause of their difficulties,” Orben said.

“Similarly, some personality traits or life circumstances might make certain children both more likely to use social media heavily and more likely to experience poorer developmental outcomes.”

Adolescents Identified as Most Vulnerable

Teague said one possible explanation is that time spent online may displace activities linked to better mental health.

“Time spent on digital media [could] displace time that would otherwise be spent on things that are linked to improved mental health, like exercise and connecting with family and peers in real life,” Teague told The Epoch Times in an email.

She also contrasted the interactive nature of social media with traditional media.

“Unique to digital media over traditional media, is its interactive nature, whereby children and teens are encouraged to keep engaging with content through addictive features like auto-play and auto-scroll,” she said.

Adolescents in particular were identified as more vulnerable to the effects of social media.

“Early adolescence is when identity formation and peer relationships become key developmental systems for young people,” she said.

She added that social media can magnify these pressures through constant external feedback and large social comparison.

“Action is needed at the policy and platform level most to make our online environments, that are designed largely for adults, appropriate for children,” she said.

“Addictive design features particularly need attention, like auto-play and auto-scroll, as well as exposure to harmful content.”

Social Media Companies Taken to Court Over Claims of Addictive Design

The new research comes as plaintiffs won a landmark social media addiction case in the United States.

The civil trial in Los Angeles centres on a 20-year-old woman who alleges major tech companies designed their platforms to be addictive, contributing to mental health issues.

Defendants include Instagram and YouTube, while cases involving Snapchat and TikTok have been settled privately.

Lawyers for the plaintiff argue she became addicted to social media as a minor, leading to depression, body dysmorphia, and suicidal thoughts.

YouTube’s legal team has rejected the claims, arguing the platform is not addictive, and is comparable to video services such as Netflix, where users can stop scrolling at anytime.

On Feb. 18, Meta Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg told the court the company had long since abandoned goals of “increasing time spent on apps,” instead focusing on engaging users through “creating value.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/05/2026 - 23:20

These Are America's Biggest Christian Groups

These Are America's Biggest Christian Groups

The Catholic Church is America’s largest Christian group - but it doesn’t have the most churches.

Drawing on data from the U.S. Religion Census, compiled by Julie Peasley via Visual Capitalist, this visualization compares the country’s biggest Christian denominations by two measures: adherents and congregations.

The comparison highlights a key divide in how these groups are structured. Catholics lead by membership, while the Southern Baptist Convention leads by church count. Non-denominational churches also rank near the top on both measures, reflecting how the composition of American Christianity has shifted over time.

The Largest Christian Denominations in America

Here’s a closer look at how America’s largest Christian groups stack up:

 

What Are “Adherents” and “Congregations”?

Two metrics drive this comparison:

  • Adherents: the total number of people affiliated with a religious group.

  • Congregations: the number of individual places of worship.

Together, they show both the size of each group and how widely it is distributed.

America’s Largest Christian Group Has Fewer Congregations

The Catholic Church has 61.9 million adherents—more than any other group—but only about 19,400 congregations.

By contrast, the Southern Baptist Convention has 51,400 churches, the most in the dataset, despite having far fewer members. Non-denominational churches also combine a large membership base with a wide church network.

The result is a clear tradeoff: some groups concentrate members into fewer congregations, while others are spread across a much larger number of churches.

The Rise of Non-Denominational Christianity

Non-denominational Christian churches have emerged as one of the largest groups in the country. Their growth reflects broader shifts in religious identity, as many Americans move away from traditional denominational labels.

According to broader research from Pew, religious affiliation in the U.S. has remained relatively stable in recent years, but the composition within Christianity continues to evolve. Non-denominational and evangelical traditions have gained prominence, especially in fast-growing regions.

A Diverse Religious Landscape

Beyond the largest groups, the U.S. is home to a wide array of smaller denominations, from Lutheran and Methodist branches to Adventist and Episcopal churches. Each contributes to a highly fragmented but vibrant religious ecosystem.

Geography helps shape these patterns. In this map of U.S. religion, Baptist and evangelical churches are heavily concentrated in the South, whereas Catholic strongholds align with areas shaped by European and Latin American immigration.

To see how Christianity compares on a global scale, check out Ranked: Countries With the Greatest Number of Christians on the Voronoi app.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/05/2026 - 22:45

California Bans Government Officials From Using Insider Knowledge To Bet On Prediction Markets

California Bans Government Officials From Using Insider Knowledge To Bet On Prediction Markets

Authored by Dylan Morgan via The Epoch Times,

California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Friday issued an executive order banning state officials from using insider knowledge to profit, or assist another person in profiting, on prediction markets, effective immediately.

The governor’s office said there have been mounting reports of individuals in the federal government with access to sensitive government information placing well-timed bets ahead of major Trump administration actions. These reports are currently allegations and have yet to be verified.

“Public service should not be a get-rich-quick scheme. At a time when Trump’s Washington is riddled with ethical failures and insider profiteering, California is drawing a bright line: If you serve the public as a political appointee, you serve the public—period,” Newsom said.

“We’re not going to tolerate this kind of corruption in California.”

Prediction markets are platforms that allow users to bet on real-world events, including government decisions, political events, sports, pop culture, and everything in between.

The governor’s office said that, in one example, six suspected insiders made $1.2 million betting on a U.S. strike against Iran from accounts funded only days before the strike and bet only hours before it occurred.

The governor’s office also said another person has made nearly $1 million from a 93 percent win rate on bets related to Iran and Israel.

In a separate incident, an individual made more than $400,000 betting on the U.S. military capturing former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro just hours before that occurred, according to the governor’s office.

Kalshi, one of the largest prediction market platforms, said on X in response to Newsom’s order that it already enforces insider trading violations and that these examples by the governor’s office took place on a separate, unregulated prediction market.

“Insider trading violates our rules, and we enforce them when we catch insiders,“ Kalshi said in a statement.

“Government employees should be aware that trading on federally regulated markets using material non-public information violates the law.”

Last week, on March 23, a bipartisan pair of senators went after the gambling side of prediction markets. Sens. John Curtis (R-Utah) and Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) introduced legislation aimed at banning sports betting through these platforms.

Curtis said in a statement that the measure is needed to protect state authority over gambling laws. He said the rapid expansion of these platforms exposes young people to gambling-like products that should fall under state, not federal, oversight. The legislation, he said, is intended to reaffirm states’ rights, protect consumers, and keep speculative financial products out of areas traditionally regulated as gambling.

Kalshi opposes the bill. Its spokesperson Elisabeth Diana told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement that banning sports-related prediction markets would backfire by pushing users to unregulated offshore platforms.

“It’s clear this bill is motivated by casino interests that are threatened by competition,” she said.

“They’re more worried about protecting their monopolies than protecting consumers.”

Diana said regulated prediction markets are a fairer alternative to traditional gambling because they don’t disadvantage successful users, and that competition—not protection of existing industries—should determine their future.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/05/2026 - 22:10

SEC Case Against Musk Over Twitter Stake Heads to Trial

SEC Case Against Musk Over Twitter Stake Heads to Trial

Elon Musk and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission are no longer pursuing a quick settlement and instead appear headed for a courtroom fight over Musk’s 2022 takeover of Twitter, according to Bloomberg.

In a status update filed Wednesday, both sides said they had explored possible resolutions but ultimately agreed the case isn’t suited for mediation. “The parties do not believe that this case would benefit…from…ADR,” the filing states, signaling a shift toward full litigation.

At the center of the case is the SEC’s claim that Musk failed to promptly disclose he had accumulated more than a 5% stake in Twitter—an omission the agency says allowed him to buy shares at lower prices, costing investors more than $150 million. Musk has pushed back, calling the lawsuit “a waste of this court’s time,” but a judge has already rejected both his dismissal bid and the SEC’s attempt to win the case outright.

Bloomberg writes that the next phase will involve discovery, where Musk’s team says it needs up to a year to review what it described as a “voluminous investigative file” built over nearly three years, including testimony from dozens of witnesses.

The case unfolds alongside other legal setbacks tied to the deal. A jury recently found Musk misled investors during the acquisition saga, and a separate federal judge allowed a class-action suit over alleged stock manipulation to move forward.

Musk’s clashes with regulators and investors stretch back years, most notably to his 2018 “funding secured” tweets about taking Tesla, Inc. private. That episode led to an SEC enforcement action, a $20 million fine, and an agreement requiring oversight of some of his public statements—terms Musk has repeatedly criticized and tried to challenge in court.

He has also faced a steady stream of shareholder lawsuits tied to his companies, including disputes over compensation, market-moving statements on social media, and acquisitions. While Musk has successfully defended some cases, others have resulted in settlements or ongoing litigation, reinforcing scrutiny around his communications and business practices.

More broadly, the combination of high-profile deals, unconventional public remarks, and aggressive legal strategy has kept Musk frequently entangled in court battles over the past decade, making regulatory and investor lawsuits a recurring feature of his leadership across multiple companies.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/05/2026 - 20:45

Diesel Surges Above $8 In San Fran As Gulf Shock Exposes California's Disastrous Policies

Diesel Surges Above $8 In San Fran As Gulf Shock Exposes California's Disastrous Policies

The Gulf energy shock is exposing the consequences of California’s economic mismanagement under the state’s one-party rule of Democratic kings and queens. Years of failed "green" policies, regulatory overreach, high taxes, endless environmental mandates, and heavy reliance on Asian refineries have transformed California into an energy island highly vulnerable to global fuel shocks, with San Francisco becoming the first U.S. city on Saturday to top $8 a gallon for diesel.

"For the first time ever, GasBuddy data show average diesel prices have risen above $8 per gallon in San Francisco, CA, the first U.S. city ever to reach the $8 mark," Patrick De Haan of the fuel-tracking website GasBuddy wrote on X.

De Haan noted, "The national average price of gasoline is $4.10/gal this morning, with diesel at $5.58/gal. Both are likely to tick slightly lower today, but a large round of price cycling will begin tomorrow in potentially a dozen or so states, pushing prices back up."

California has always been an outlier among states in terms of fuel prices. As we have outlined in recent weeks, it was only a matter of time before prices soared in the Golden State to levels that would cause demand destruction.

Last month, Chevron’s head of oil refining, Andy Walz, explained that California is careening toward an energy crisis due to the war in Iran. He said the company may reduce oil refining in the state unless officials roll back taxes and regulations, which is unlikely to happen as long as Democrats remain in power.

Walz said the state is highly exposed to the energy shock rippling across commodity markets because it imports about 20% of its refined fuels from Asia. But, as extensively discussed here, oil product shipments from China, South Korea, Singapore, and elsewhere are at risk of slowing if the Hormuz chokepoint remains clogged, as well as of panic-driven hoarding of fuel by countries. This only leaves Asian nations dialing back crude product exports, exposing California to changes in overseas flows. 

Walz said fuel shortages in California are his worst fear: "We have refineries in Asia that are having to cut crude, so they’re going to make fewer products. What if San Francisco doesn’t have the jet fuel it needs? Or Los Angeles? Or maybe gasoline?"

Put another way, California functions as an energy island within the U.S., cut off from the core refinery hubs of Texas and Louisiana. That issue comes as multiple refineries in California have shuttered in recent years because of climate-related regulations and a broader regulatory regime that continues to kill the state’s energy complex.

Even CBS News California was forced to acknowledge last week that a six-month investigation found that state left-wing policies, refinery closures, and global supply risks transformed California into an energy island, highly exposed to disruptions in global fuel flows.

California’s reliance on overseas fuel imports is a major policy failure by state leaders. It also reinforces what JPMorgan analysts have been warning: as the energy shock ripples from Asia to Africa to Europe, California was always likely to be one of the first places in the U.S. to feel max pain. Diesel above $8 per gallon may be the most apparent signal yet that the shock has arrived.

For years, Democrats in the state were able to deflect blame for price gouging onto oil companies. That narrative has since collapsed under the weight of left-wing climate policies that have undermined California’s energy complex. After years of failed governance under left-wing rule and Gov. Newsom, the state now faces a far more serious risk: a fuel shortage that could evolve from an economic crisis into a national security concern, particularly if supply disruptions begin to impair readiness at key military bases across California.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/05/2026 - 20:10

Wildfire And Drought Risks Spike As California Enters Dry Season With Just 18% Snowpack

Wildfire And Drought Risks Spike As California Enters Dry Season With Just 18% Snowpack

California is entering its dry season with far less snow than usual, heightening drought concerns across the state, according to Bloomberg.

Snowpack stands at just 18% of normal statewide, according to the Department of Water Resources. Conditions are especially severe in the Sierra Nevada: the northern region has only 6% of typical levels, while the central and southern areas are at 21% and 32%, respectively.

The shortfall matters because California depends on winter snow — not year-round rainfall — for much of its water. Snowpack, typically measured around April 1 at its peak, acts as a natural reservoir that melts in spring and summer to supply cities, farms and ecosystems.

This year, however, warmer Pacific storms brought more rain than snow, boosting reservoirs but limiting snow accumulation. The snowpack also peaked early, in late February, before record March warmth rapidly melted it.

Bloomberg writes that the result could be widespread drought conditions, with increased wildfire risk and added strain on agriculture and wildlife as water supplies tighten.

Historically, California has seen similar swings between extreme lows and highs in snowpack. During the 2012–2016 drought, snow levels collapsed, culminating in 2015 — the lowest in at least 500 years — when many Sierra sites recorded little to no snow. Warmer temperatures, rather than just lack of precipitation, played a major role in that “snow drought,” a pattern scientists say is becoming more common.

At the same time, the state can quickly swing to the opposite extreme. Just a few years ago, 2023 brought one of the largest snowpacks on record — more than double the average — following multiple wet storms. These sharp reversals underscore California’s growing “boom-and-bust” water cycle, where exceptionally wet years are often followed by rapid declines, making long-term water planning increasingly difficult.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/05/2026 - 19:35

Obama's Tower Of Doom Is Harder To Get Into Than America Itself

Obama's Tower Of Doom Is Harder To Get Into Than America Itself

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

In yet another jaw-dropping display of elite hypocrisy, Barack Obama’s Chicago Presidential Center – long derided as the “Tower of Doom” – now requires proof of U.S. citizenship or lawful permanent residency just to enter a ticket giveaway for its grand opening ceremony on June 18, 2026.

While Democrats in Washington relentlessly push policies that treat America’s borders like an open invitation, the Obama Foundation has quietly imposed strict eligibility rules for its own high-profile event. 

The sweepstakes for two free tickets, complete with a potential $1,500 travel stipend for winners living 100 miles or more away, is explicitly limited to U.S. citizens or lawful permanent residents who are legal residents of the 50 states, D.C., or Puerto Rico and at least 18 years old.

Kayleigh McEnany cut straight to the point: “Why do we have stricter standards for the Obama library than for voting?”

Rep. Brandon Gill (R-TX) delivered the obvious answer: “Well, because Democrats would like to allow non-citizens to vote in American elections.”

X users were equally unforgiving.

This latest twist exposes the double standard at the heart of the modern left: secure the perimeter around Obama’s $1 billion vanity project while demanding the rest of America absorb an unchecked invasion.

As we’ve previously highlighted, tower is almost complete, with the “headache-inducing” narcissistic addition of chopped-up excerpts from Obama’s 2015 Selma speech etched across the facade. 

That update only amplified mockery of the prison-like monstrosity, already ballooning toward $1 billion in costs while displacing South Side residents as rents doubled from $800 to over $1,800 for two-bedroom apartments. Locals rightly called out how such developments “displace the very people they say they want to improve it for.”

The $1 billion Presidential Library resembles a “Tower of Doom” – a concrete bunker sucking the life out of Chicago’s South Side, complete with DEI contractor lawsuits over poor performance and racial discrimination claims. 

Taxpayers were stuck with a $200 million-plus infrastructure bill despite claims of private funding, while the foundation scrambled with just $116 million in reserves against $230 million in remaining costs.

Obama’s team can demand verified legal status for a glorified selfie opportunity at his ego monument, yet the same political machine fights tooth and nail against basic citizenship verification at the ballot box. Meanwhile, everyday Americans foot the bill for the fallout.

The Tower of Doom stands as a fitting monument – not to hope and change, but to the insulated arrogance of a political class that preaches open borders for thee but ironclad gates for me. 

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

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Tyler Durden Sun, 04/05/2026 - 19:00

Oil Up, Stocks Down As War Rhetoric Rises, Deadlines Loom

Oil Up, Stocks Down As War Rhetoric Rises, Deadlines Loom

After a long weekend of kinetic and verbal escalation (and a strong payrolls print), and with President Trump reminded Iran that his deadline for a deal looms, it is no surprise that oil prices are higher in early trading...

WTI topped $115...

Near post-war highs...

And despite the recent hope-filled decoupling of oil and stocks...

...S&P futures also weak, down around 0.7% in the early trading...

Treasury futures and gold are lower with USD/JPY near 159.70.

While the Iran conflict has established an ongoing state of caution in the market, several significant data points yet lie ahead: PCE on April 9, CPI on April 10, and FOMC on April 29.

As SpotGamma notes, the SPX Term Structure has returned to contango — which means options are pricing in higher volatility in the weeks ahead than in the near term.

Comparing that curve with Forward IV shows a meaningful spread around both the CPI and FOMC dates, suggesting current positioning may not fully reflect the event risk those catalysts could bring. Between negative gamma, the IV-RV flip, and a still-steepened vol curve, the data suggests traders should remain alert.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/05/2026 - 18:24

Iran Threatens "Complete And Utter Annihilation" Of OpenAI's $30BN Stargate Data Center In Abu Dhabi

Iran Threatens "Complete And Utter Annihilation" Of OpenAI's $30BN Stargate Data Center In Abu Dhabi

In a move that may well have been sponsored by Dario Amodei or Elon Musk, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a clear public warning to the US that any damage inflicted on Iran’s power infrastructure will be met with decisive retaliation. Specifically, IRGC spokesperson Brigadier General Ebrahim Zolfaghari threatened the “complete and utter annihilation” of U.S. and Israeli facilities, with Stargate's $30 billion "hidden" AI datacenter in Abu Dhabi singled out as a juicy target for Iranian destruction later in the video.

The threats come on the heels of Iran reportedly delivering enough damage via rocket strikes to some Amazon AWS data centers that they have shut down.

In the video, Zolfaghari warned that “should the USA proceed with its threats concerning Iran’s power plant facilities the following retaliatory measures shall be promptly enacted: All power plants, energy infrastructure, and information and communications technology of the Zionist regime, and all similar companies within the region that have American shareholders shall face complete and utter annihilation.”

As Tom's Hardware notes, after Zolfaghari's remarks end, the video switches to a shot of the Earth from space, which zooms into Abu Dhabi on Google Maps. A zone not far from the coast is then centered on, showing an apparently ‘empty’ area of desert. However, a message is overlaid on this bleak view, stating “Nothing stays hidden to our sight, though hidden by Google.” The video then switches to a ‘night vision’ view of the same area of the map with the full extent of the Stargate AI datacenter in Abu Dhabi clear to see.

The threat comes after the IRGC claimed they targeted Oracle's data centers in Dubai.

There has been no confirmation whether the facility was hit or what damage it may have sustained.

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Tyler Durden Sun, 04/05/2026 - 17:50

OPEC+ Agrees To Boost Output By Another 206,000 Barrels A Day When Strait Of Hormuz Reopens

OPEC+ Agrees To Boost Output By Another 206,000 Barrels A Day When Strait Of Hormuz Reopens

With the world's attention glued to every headline out of Iran, it is understandable why today's OPEC+ meeting was largely ignored, although with roughly 12% of global oil output throttled at the Strait of Hormuz, it's not as if even OPEC+ could do much to offset the supply shock. 

Earlier on Sunday, the oil-producing cartel (where Iran is a founding member yet was missing from the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee) warned that damage to Middle East energy assets will have a prolonged impact on oil supply even after the Iran war ends, as it approved a symbolic increase in output quotas for next month.

“Restoring damaged energy assets to full capacity is both costly and takes a long time,” the group’s ministerial monitoring committee said in a statement after meeting on Sunday. Any action that jeopardizes security of supply, whether that’s an attack on energy infrastructure or disruption of export routes, increases market volatility and weakens OPEC+’s efforts, OPEC+ said.

Rhetoric aside, the oil producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to increase targets for May by about 206,000 barrels a day during today's video conference. The modest rise that will largely exist on paper as its key members are unable to raise production due to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Saudi Arabia and Russia saw the biggest output increases, 62 kbpd each. 

Here is the statement released by the OPEC+ JMMC:

The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), comprising Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Algeria and Venezuela holds its 65th Meeting via videoconference 

The JMMC reviewed current market conditions and emphasized the essential role of the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) in supporting the stability of global energy markets. In this context, the Committee highlighted the critical importance of safeguarding international maritime routes to ensure the uninterrupted flow of energy.

It also expressed concern regarding attacks on energy infrastructure, noting that restoring damaged energy assets to full capacity is both costly and takes a long time, thereby affecting overall supply availability. Accordingly, the Committee stressed that any actions undermining energy supply security, whether through attacks on infrastructure or disruption of international maritime routes, increase market volatility and weaken the collective efforts under the DoC to support market stability for the benefit of producers, consumers, and the global economy.

In this regard, the Committee commended the DoC countries that took the initiative to ensure the continued availability of supplies, particularly through the use of alternative export routes, which have contributed to reducing market volatility. 

The JMMC will continue to closely monitor market conditions and retains the authority to convene additional meetings or request an OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting, as established at the 38th ONOMM held on 5 December 2024. 

The next meeting of the JMMC (66th) is scheduled for 7 June 2026.

The OPEC+ quota increase of 206,000 bpd ​represents less than 2% of the supply disrupted by the Hormuz closure, but it signals readiness to raise output once the waterway reopens, OPEC+ sources have said. Consultancy ​Energy Aspects called the increase "academic" as long as disruptions in the strait persist. To be sure, OPEC members will be delighted to boost output and take advantage of surging oil prices with Brent now around $110, the highest in 4 years, maximizing revenue while prices are this high before either supply surges or demand destruction sends the world into a recession, with both outcomes leading to a plunge in oil prices. 

Oil prices have soared after five weeks of conflict, with Brent climbing to almost $120 a barrel last month and some regional Asian benchmarks briefly hitting a record above $170 before reversing, as key Middle East energy assets came under attack and Iran effectively closed the critical Strait of Hormuz, creating what the International Energy Agency called the biggest supply disruption in the history of the market. 

“The real story is not OPEC+ policy, it is the Strait of Hormuz,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy. “In a market where up to a fifth of global oil flows through Hormuz, disruptions there largely outweigh any incremental increase the group can announce.”

Before the conflict erupted, eight major nations from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners had been gradually restoring supply halted back in 2023. They held production steady for the first three months of this year, then on March 1 - a day after the initial US and Israeli strikes on Iran - they agreed to a small increase of 206,000 barrels a day for April. One month later, they agreed to repeat that same action. 

“We will monitor the situation and take all necessary measures to balance the market,” Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said in an interview with state television channel Rossiya 24 on Sunday. “The market is clearly unbalanced. This has a significant impact on demand globally, not only in the energy markets but also in the economy and the final supply.”

Producers around the Persian Gulf such as the Saudis, the UAE and Iraq have cut oil output by about 10 million barrels a day, equivalent to roughly 10% of global supplies, the IEA said in mid-March. Even once the fighting stops, it’ll take time to bring tankers to ports and bolster production again, and it’s unclear what Iran’s future influence over Hormuz traffic might be. The nation is currently exerting considerable control over shipping through the chokepoint, setting up a tolling system and giving preferential treatment to vessels from countries it deems friendly.

While Gulf producers are being affected by the Middle East conflict, the global oil market also faces supply disruptions in Russia. The OPEC+ member has seen its energy infrastructure targeted by Ukrainian attacks, and its Primorsk and Ust-Luga export terminals on the Baltic Sea have been crippled.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/05/2026 - 16:40

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