NHTSA Begins Work On New Car Door-Handle Rules After Bloomberg's Tesla Report

Auto-safety regulators at the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration will begin considering new federal requirements for vehicle door handles and emergency-release systems following a series of deadly incidents in which occupants became trapped after electrically operated doors lost power.

NHTSA said an inaccessible or difficult-to-locate mechanical release could prevent occupants from escaping after a crash or fire, potentially resulting in serious injury or death. The agency granted a petition seeking "a robust and obvious door egress system in all motor vehicles" and will begin rulemaking proceedings.

The filing states in the "Action" section that NHTSA has denied a petition to open a defect investigation, offering a near-term reprieve for Tesla and other EV automakers that use similar flush-mounted electronic door handles. However, what comes next from the agency will be an industrywide rulemaking process covering emergency door-egress systems.

"A decision as to the issuance of a rule will be made on the basis of all available information developed in the course of the rulemaking proceeding, in accordance with statutory criteria," the filing said.

The action follows what Bloomberg says has been 15 deaths in a dozen or so accidents in which occupants or rescuers were reportedly unable to open the doors of crashed and burning Teslas. In several cases, occupants survived the initial impact but died or suffered serious injuries after becoming trapped.

Meanwhile on Reddit...

We reported as early as October 2019 on the "futuristic" door handle blamed for the death of a 48-year-old man driving a Tesla Model S in South Florida.

NHTSA declined to open a Tesla-specific defect investigation, citing only one complaint among 179,031 vehicles and concluding that the issue would be better addressed through industrywide regulation. The agency noted that the Model 3 has mechanical releases for its front doors but not its rear doors.

NHTSA noted, "The owner's manual for the 2022 MY Tesla Model 3 includes a section labeled "In Case of Emergency" that details how to open doors from the interior when the vehicle has no electrical power." 

The rulemaking process could take years and may face industry opposition over additional costs. The decision adds to mounting regulatory pressure, including a congressional proposal requiring manual releases and first-responder access, as well as a NHTSA investigation into complaints of children becoming trapped inside certain Tesla Model Y vehicles.

One has to wonder what Bloomberg hoped its reporting would trigger: a sweeping Tesla defect finding or recall.

That is not what NHTSA delivered. The agency denied the defect petition and shifted the broader issue into a lengthy, industrywide rulemaking process.

Perhaps the outcome would have looked different under a Kamala Harris administration.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 14:50

US Lays Groundwork For Approving Offshore Nuclear Power Projects

Authored by Melanie Sun via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. federal government has outlined a preliminary framework to oversee the approval of offshore nuclear power projects, advancing President Donald Trump's agenda to safely unleash domestic energy production and reestablish the United States as the global leader in nuclear energy.

Birds fly along the Pacific Ocean near the dry fuel storage of canisters containing spent nuclear fuel at the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station (SONGS) along the Pacific Ocean south of San Clemente in San Diego County, Calif.., on June 9, 2023. Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images

"While no commercial deployment on the Outer Continental Shelf is planned or approved at this time, it could greatly strengthen America's energy security in the future," Matt Giacona, acting director of the Interior Department's Marine Minerals Administration, said in announcing the initiative on July 22.

The Marine Minerals Administration and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) released an agreement on Wednesday that lays the groundwork for a more "detailed cooperative framework" outlining jurisdictional oversight for development of offshore nuclear power projects in "a safe and environmentally responsible way."

The memorandum of understanding between the Marine Minerals Administration (MMA), which oversees energy projects in federal waters of the outer continental shelf, and the federal government's independent civilian nuclear regulator will "foster cooperation" and "allow shared technical expertise to ensure reviews are efficient and transparent," the NRC said in a statement.

Director of the NRC's Office of Advanced Reactors Jeremy Bowen said the agreement "creates a clear framework for how our agencies will work together and ensures our processes remain efficient, transparent, and technically robust."

"The agreement will also allow MMA and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to responsibly respond to industry requests, supporting novel offshore energy production," the MMA added.

The MMA also oversees offshore development such as seabed mining and space launch infrastructure.

Restoring Energy Abundance

The announcement is the latest step taken by the federal government as the president pushes forward with his agenda to quadruple U.S. nuclear power capacity by 2050 and restore American energy abundance.

The president declared a national energy emergency upon returning to office and has since signed numerous executive orders to achieve this goal, including licensing 10 new reactors by 2030.

Leaders in the energy sector have warned that significant investments are needed to address the increasing shortfalls in domestic power supply, as experienced during the recent summer heat waves, when grid operators were forced to issue warnings of potential outages due to inadequate resources to meet peak energy demand.

In March, major U.S. tech companies agreed to build their own electricity generation infrastructure to power their data center operations. They also pledged to help triple global nuclear capacity by 2050.

New Reactor Designs

The Trump administration's effort to speed the safe deployment of advanced nuclear technologies reached an early milestone in July, when three reactor designs achieved criticality.

According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, many countries are working to develop small modular reactors, including concepts suited for marine or floating applications. Russia is the only country currently operating a floating nuclear power plant, the Akademik Lomonosov. Located in the country's far east, it has been in operation since 2020.

Regarding the offshore use of nuclear technologies, Giacona said the military has safely relied on submerged reactor systems in ships and submarines for decades, calling them a "reliable source of energy in demanding marine environments."

A technician monitors Natura Resources’ MSR-1 molten salt research reactor in Lockhart, Texas, in 2024. The reactor is the first liquid-fueled advanced reactor ever licensed and the first university research reactor approved in more than 30 years. Courtesy of Natura Resources Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 14:30

Watch: Ukraine, Iran Tensions Run High In Rare Rubio-Lavrov Meeting

A US delegation headed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio is holding three day closed-door talks with Russia on the sidelines of an annual gathering by foreign ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Manila.

The high point came in a rare direct Rubio-Lavrav meeting, where the US top diplomat said Russia should have the incentive to end a "very blood war" that has devastated both sides.

Rubio admitted that so far there's been an "unsuccessful or at least unfruitful" effort to end the war and find peace, but insisted the Trump administration is committed to finding a lasting solution "if conditions and factors have changed to make that possible."

"That’s been the challenge, an end that both sides can accept," Rubio said to reporters. "And we’ve tried and we’ll continue to try to see if we can, you know, find a middle ground that brings this about. And we’re prepared to play that role if the opportunity presents itself."

One of the more interesting moments came when FM Lavrov and Secretary Rubio ignored reporters' questions on whether Russia will agree to stop attacking Ukraine, in the wake of the obvious recent escalations of missile attacks on the Ukrainian capital...

Looks like an *American staffer* runs press out of the room as soon as the 'awkward' but still relevant questions were asked.

A reporter asks Marco Rubio whether he will ask Foreign Minister Lavrov about Russia helping Iran target U.S. troops. Another reporter asks Lavrov when will Russia stop attacking Ukraine. A staffer then removes the press from the room. pic.twitter.com/N7I7ZBVQOE

— Acyn (@Acyn) July 23, 2026

Lavrov underscored in the meeting "the unacceptability of further arming" Ukraine and accused European countries of pursuing Russia's "strategic defeat."

The Kremlin has of late warned the West of its growing direct involvement in targeting Russian energy sits as part of Ukraine's long-range drone operations, which have unleashed serious damage on oil production and export infrastructure. 

Lavrov also declared Russia’s readiness for "a political and diplomatic resolution of the conflict" and the upholding of commitment to agreements reached at last year's Alaska summit between Trump and Putin.

But Rubio threw up a significant roadblock and challenge, stressing on the question of arming Ukraine, "There’s been no change to our policy in that regard." But he also again said: "We want a peace deal. We want the war to end."

Another interesting and tense moment came when reporters raised the issue of recent widespread allegations that Russia is arming Iran and helping it with targeting information.

Rubio was clearly trying to not make this an issue at the summit and somewhat surprisingly strongly pushed back against the reports...

Reporter: Did you talk to the Russians about Russia sharing information with Iran targeting U.S. troops?

Rubio: Who says that they are?

Reporter: Are they not?

Rubio: Who says they are?

Reporter: There's been reporting...

Rubio: Reporting in the media? Oh, then it must be… pic.twitter.com/YERHdknMrC

— Clash Report (@clashreport) July 23, 2026

Reuters and others had reported Wednesday, "Iranian drone attacks on CIA facilities in the Gulf have prompted U.S. intelligence analysts to investigate whether Russia assisted by providing targeting information or ​advanced drone technology, said four people familiar with U.S. intelligence."

"These people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss national security matters, said U.S. intelligence officials have ‌not yet reached firm conclusions about the possible Russian involvement in the attacks on CIA facilities. But they cited the strikes' effectiveness and apparent precision, as well as Russia's broader technical support for Iran, as possible evidence," the Reuters report added.

Some analysts have pointed out that Moscow is inflicting 'payback' on the United States related to its having armed Ukraine for many years. US intelligence has been assisting Ukraine forces with targeting information. So the logic goes that Russia is now doing the same for Iran in the ratcheting Mideast conflict.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 14:10

Gov. Hochul Responds To Criticism, Explains Rationale For AI Data Center Moratorium

Authored by Oliver Mantyk via The Epoch Times,

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul had an op-ed published in The Wall Street Journal on July 21 responding to the publication's criticisms of her decision to halt data centers of a certain size from being built in her state.

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul in New York City on March 19, 2026. Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

In her op-ed, Hochul explained her stance on AI data centers and why she believes her decision to prevent the creation of large AI data centers in the state for a year was best for New Yorkers. The moratorium on the facilities is the first of its kind in the nation.

She was countering a July 14 WSJ editorial titled "New York's Data Center Self-Sabotage" published on the same day that Hochul signed her executive order for a statewide moratorium on large data centers, with the newspaper's editorial board calling her move "an act of monumental self-sabotage."

The editorial board said the moratorium on the centers was a popularity move more than a pragmatic one, and that the centers helped local areas with tax money. They also said that the issues of data centers taking up utilities like electricity are overstated.

The publication expressed suspicion of the one-year moratorium, comparing it to the 2008 one-year moratorium on fracking in the state, which was extended until fracking was entirely banned years later.

Hochul opened her July 21 op-ed response by saying the WSJ editorial had gotten New York's decision and rationale for the AI data center moratorium wrong.

She said the one-year pause on hyperscale AI data centers that use 50 megawatts or more is a responsible move, allowing for the establishment of rules for an industry that will hold much influence in the future.

According to Synergy Research Group, these large-scale data centers are the minority of operational centers, but are becoming more common, with hyperscale data centers doubling between 2019 and 2024.

AI data centers are different from regular data centers, which handle running software, web pages, and storing files. AI centers require different computer components focused on AI operations and require more energy and cooling.

Hochul made clear that the existing facilities will still operate, smaller projects will move forward, and the pause will end when rules to protect New Yorkers are in place.

"What we're pausing isn't innovation. It's the rush to build first and answer questions later," she wrote.

She said that New York doesn't need to pick between leading the future in AI and protecting its citizens and communities, and that regulating AI won't hand over technological victory to China.

"America's competitive advantage has never been the absence of rules. It has been our ability to attract the world's best talent, develop breakthrough technologies and earn public confidence in them," she wrote.

Hochul cited her Empire AI initiative as an example of New York's effort in advancing AI technologies.

The governor said that the expansion of data centers should come at the benefit of residents, not the detriment.

"Success means communities reap economic benefits, ratepayers don't foot the bill for massive new energy demand and infrastructure keeps pace with unprecedented growth," she wrote.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 13:50

Sen. Cruz Says GM Pushed The China Car Ban Provision That Would Also Knock Out Mercedes-Benz

The Senate Commerce Committee advanced the bill unanimously. Its chairman voted yes and then accused a Detroit automaker of writing part of it to remove a German competitor.

People look at a BYD Seagull car by Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer BYD Auto at the Bangkok International Motor Show in Nonthaburi on March 27, 2024. Lillian Suwanrumpha /AFP via Getty Images

The Senate Commerce Committee unanimously advanced the Connected Vehicle Security Act of 2026 on July 22, codifying into law a Biden-era executive order that barred Chinese and Russian automakers from selling passenger vehicles in the United States. The bill is sponsored by Sens. Bernie Moreno (R-OH) and Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), a Republican and a Democrat from two states that build cars. The vote was bipartisan and the margin was total, while the disagreement was about who benefits.

Committee chairman Ted Cruz (R-TX), who supports the bill, told the hearing that General Motors had been pushing for one of its ownership provisions in order to get Mercedes-Benz out of the American market and make its own Cadillac brand more competitive. He said flatly that "we would never consider" banning Mercedes-Benz sales in the United States, and that he would push to change the provision.

GM disputes the characterization. The company said the legislation isn't about any individual automaker and that it "supports policies that protect and strengthen American manufacturing and the global competitiveness of U.S. automakers." Cruz's account is his reading of GM's lobbying, not an established finding.

How A German Carmaker Ends Up In A China Bill

The provision at issue is an ownership test. As reported out of committee, the bill reaches not only companies "owned by, controlled by, or subject to the jurisdiction or direction" of a US adversary, but companies partially exposed to one - with a 15 percent threshold for vehicle manufacturers and 25 percent for software and hardware firms.

Mercedes-Benz carries roughly 20 percent passive Chinese investment. That is a minority financial stake, not operational control, and the company is accused of nothing. It clears the threshold anyway.

Moreno answered that Mercedes would have until 2030 to comply and could seek waivers from the ownership requirement. He also pointed to Detroit's own adjustments: GM plans to move production of its Chinese-made Buick Envision to the United States for the 2028 model year, and Ford has agreed to move Chinese-made Lincolns stateside.

One more supply chain is being redrawn. Moreno said Google's self-driving unit Waymo, which had been in talks with Chinese automaker Geely about sourcing platforms from China, "has committed to looking at a Detroit-based manufacturer for their future platforms."

Polestar said last month that the administration is forcing it to stop selling vehicles in the United States from the 2027 model year. The company is based in Sweden and majority-owned by China's Geely Holding.

Its sister brand Volvo Cars - which co-founded Polestar and shares the same ultimate owner - said in May it received authorization to keep selling in the United States, though it must still meet the rule's requirements. Same parent, opposite outcomes, which is roughly what an ownership-percentage regime is designed to produce and also why the percentages are being fought over.

What The Bill Is For

The stated rationale is concerns over data and control. Connected vehicles - and almost every new vehicle is one - carry Bluetooth, Wi-Fi, cellular, and in some cases satellite links, any of which could in principle expose driver information or vehicle systems to a foreign adversary. The bill extends the existing ban beyond China and Russia to Iran and North Korea, removes light-vehicle weight limits, and sets a minimum civil penalty of $1.5 million or five times transaction value per violation. Software restrictions bite in 2027, hardware around 2030.

Slotkin's office says the legislation "closes the door on Chinese-origin vehicles, software, and key components at every stage" so that data gathered on American roads cannot be routed back to Beijing. Slotkin herself framed it in industrial terms: "The Chinese Communist Party's playbook of heavily subsidizing their product and underselling the competition puts Michigan's auto industry and millions of American workers at risk." Moreno was blunter - "We're preventing an absolute, total, and complete destruction of our industrial base." Roughly 8 million Chinese-made vehicles enter the global market each year.

Polestar 4 (via Top Gear) Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 13:30

Energy Department Issues Emergency Order As Hot Weather Conditions Threaten Blackouts

The Department of Energy (DOE) issued an emergency order authorizing Southwest Power Pool Inc. to use certain energy resources to reduce the risk of potential blackouts, according to a July 21 statement from the department.

Electrical transmission poles and lines in Commerce, Calif., on Aug. 7, 2025. Mike Blake/Reuters

The order, issued on July 20 and signed by Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, stated that Southwest Power Pool (SPP) had asked the DOE to temporarily permit certain resources to operate beyond their normal limits to help ensure grid reliability.

SPP, the regional grid operator serving 17 states in the central United States, also sought authorization to access and deploy backup generation resources at data centers and other large industrial and commercial customer sites.

On July 20, SPP issued multiple warnings about the possibility of rolling blackouts across its service area as high temperatures drove electricity demand to record levels. One alert said SPP had been forced to rely on some or all of its operating reserves after several power plants unexpectedly went offline.

According to the order, Wright determined that additional power dispatch was necessary and that backup generation resources might be needed to address the energy emergency created by the expected strain on the grid.

The determination was based on several factors, including an anticipated electricity shortage and the potential loss of power to homes and local businesses, which could threaten public health and safety.

Wright authorized SPP to use the necessary resources to meet electricity demand. He also permitted the grid operator to deploy backup generation resources as a last resort before issuing an Energy Emergency Alert.

In its statement, the DOE said that the order took effect on July 20 and expired on July 21. The department said the measure helped reduce the risk of power outages across the regions served by SPP.

"The Trump Administration is tapping into an abundant supply of unused backup generation to maintain affordable, reliable, and secure power for hardworking American families and businesses," Wright said in the statement.

The DOE estimates that more than 35 gigawatts of backup generation capacity remains unused nationwide.

Wright said the previous administration's policies weakened the U.S. power grid, leaving Americans vulnerable during emergency events.

"Thanks to President Trump's leadership, we are reversing those failures and using every available tool to ensure Americans have continued access to affordable, reliable, and secure energy to power and cool their homes," Wright said.

As the Epoch Times notes further, On July 15, PJM Interconnection, the nation's largest electric grid operator that serves 13 states, announced a hot weather alert for its service region through at least July 17.

Such an alert is issued ahead of expected hot weather or high humidity to prepare power generation facilities and personnel to meet a surge in electricity demand.

The Midcontinent Independent System Operator, which serves 15 states, also issued an alert on July 15, citing above-normal temperatures, higher-than-forecasted loads, and power generation outages. The alert ended the same day.

High Temperatures

The emergency alerts issued by power grid operators came amid intense heat in parts of the United States.

According to a July 22 forecast by the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center, "hazardous heat" is expected to continue this week over the southern United States before expanding through the Great Basin and across the Northern and Central Plains.

"Forecast highs range in the mid-90s to mid-100s with heat indices exceeding 105-115 degrees for some locations," the center said.

"Widespread major to locally extreme HeatRisk (levels 3 and 4/4) is expected, which indicates a level of heat dangerous to anyone without adequate cooling or hydration."

Amid the high heat, more emergency alerts may be issued by various power grid operators, and the DOE may issue additional emergency orders to address the situation.

Elevated temperatures for the current summer season are a continuation of last year's trend. In a Jan. 13 post, nonprofit organization Climate Central said that 2025 was the fourth-hottest year on record for the contiguous United States. The nine warmest years in the country have all been recorded since 2012.

According to data from Injury Facts, an online resource run by nonprofit safety advocacy organization National Safety Council, high heat was responsible for 253 deaths in the United States last year.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 12:50

Boasberg's Law: Chief District Court Judge Under Renewed Scrutiny Over Pattern Of Unilateral Actions

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Chief Judge James Boasberg is frustrated … and he is not alone.

Recently, the D.C. federal judge reportedly “groused” that the D.C. appellate court had ordered him to reconsider a case about whether the D.C. government engaged in biased enforcement against political graffiti.

Conversely, the litigants are equally irked over what they see as Boasberg’s bias after he responded by, again, dismissing their claims without a trial.

For a second time, Boasberg has barred pro-life groups from access to a jury after members were arrested for writing in chalk “Black Pre-Born Lives Matter” on a sidewalk while Black Lives Matter writings were left untouched.

I wrote earlier about the emerging body of “Boasberg’s Law,” cases in which the judge has increasingly shown an untethered and expansive view of his own authority. Recently, Boasberg was found to have committed an “abuse of discretion” in twice finding that the Trump Administration was in contempt of court for failing to turn around deportation flights.

My disagreements with Boasberg are not over the underlying issues, but rather the court’s rejection of basic limits on its own authority.

While chastising President Trump for exceeding his authority, Boasberg has been reversed for exceeding his own.

In the earlier case, Boasberg dismissed grand jury subpoenas in the probe of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. I have been critical of that probe, but Boasberg’s refusal to allow the subpoenas to be executed was based on an opinion that was rife with open hostility for President Trump, dubious sources, and biased observations.

I have similar reservations in this latest case. During the Black Lives Matter protests of 2020, streets in Washington were covered with BLM graffiti and the police watched as protesters wrote slogans and slurs on stores, streets, and sidewalks. The government itself even commissioned a massive painting of the message on a street near the White House.

However, when Frederick Douglass Foundation and Students for Life of America wrote their pro-life version of the slogan, they were immediately arrested and the chalk protest removed.

The D.C. Circuit’s reversal of Boasberg in the case was a major victory for free speech. Boasberg had applied the wrong standard to kill the case, holding that the group could not challenge the selective enforcement of the laws. In reaching that conclusion, Boasberg applied the wrong standard, imposing the heavy burden of proving that the city was engaged in “invidious enforcement.” While that standard was used correctly to dismiss an equal protection claim, it is not the standard for a free speech challenge.

The Court did not hide its dissatisfaction with the thrust of Boasberg’s opinion in dismissing the First Amendment claim:

“The First Amendment prohibits government discrimination on the basis of viewpoint. ‘To permit one side … to have a monopoly in expressing its views … is the antithesis of constitutional guarantees.’ The protection for freedom of speech applies not only to legislation, but also to enforcement of the laws.”

The appellate court sent the case back to Boasberg with the opportunity to apply the correct standard and to create a substantive record before issuing a ruling on the free speech claim.

Boasberg took the case and ruled again that the groups would not be allowed a trial. The new dismissal was issued despite the standard that, in seeking such a dismissal before a trial, the court must accept all material facts in favor of the nonmoving party or, in this case, the pro-life and pro-free speech litigants.

Boasberg rejected the factual claim that they were “similarly situated” to the BLM protesters. The litigants presented the results of discovery on the point, but Boasberg dismissed the claim on his own subjective view of the evidence.

They have now filed again with the appellate court to appeal his order.

Some of Boasberg’s factual findings are baffling.

For example, he maintains that the groups did not show that MPD officers “even witnessed any specific defacement during [Black Lives Matter] protests.” However, the groups presented such evidence as bodycam video of officers watching as a protester spray-painted ‘I can’t breathe’ on the street near the White House two weeks after the arrests of the pro-life protesters. They submitted other video evidence of officers watching protesters spray-painting BLM messages outside of the Department of Justice.

Moreover, they presented what they claimed is guidance from Assistant Chief of Police Jeffery Carroll, in charge of the Metropolitan Police Department’s Special Operations Division, in the application of different treatment for graffiti.

Carroll reportedly admitted to being “present” at BLM protests featuring “defacement” of property, public and private and Lt. Jason Bagshaw admitted that he also saw defacement “related to” BLM protests.

This does not mean that a jury would rule for these litigants but rather that court cannot substitute its judgment for a jury when a credible and supported claim has been made by litigants.

Boasberg declares that no such credible evidence was presented. The fact is that a reasonable jury could conclude that there was a different treatment shown in the enforcement of these laws based on the content of the speech.

The biased enforcement of laws is a common reality in other countries where courts enable such selective enforcement. In countries such as Iran and China, no level of evidence is sufficient to overcome the bias of courts in showing a preference for one side.

Judge Boasberg has had a distinguished career that is now being undone by a lack of restraint in these decisions. Again, I believe that the judge has been on solid ground in some of these conflicts, including criticizing the use of “intemperate and disrespectful” language in filings and demanding compliance with his orders. However, while Chief Judge Boasberg has described the President’s claim of expansive powers as “awfully frightening,” the same can be said about a judge who substitutes his own judgment for juries and disregards legal standards for disfavored groups.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.” 

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 12:30

SpaceX Meltdown Vaporizes $1 Trillion In Market Cap As Stock, Bonds Crater

SpaceX's Tuesday rebound was short-lived, with shares sliding to a new low of $110.85 late Thursday morning and extending their brutal post-IPO selloff.

At a current market capitalization of roughly $1.479 trillion, SpaceX has erased about $1.16 trillion, or 44%, since its valuation peaked at $2.639 trillion on June 23.

Shares are also trading well below the company's $135 IPO price, underscoring how quickly investor enthusiasm has evaporated.

The chart shows  a selloff across SpaceX's capital structure:

• Black line, right axis: SpaceX shares, down from $157.68 on June 29 to about $111.39, a decline of roughly 29%.
• Blue line, left axis: SpaceX's 6.65% senior unsecured bonds due 2056, down from roughly 97 cents on the dollar to 87.6 cents.

The bond is part of SpaceX's $25 billion inaugural debt offering, including $3.5 billion of 2056 notes. Despite attracting about $89 billion of initial orders, the long-dated bonds have sold off sharply since issuance.

Part of the bond decline reflects the broader surge in Treasury yields as soaring oil prices revive inflation concerns and rate hike fears.

Reuters noted:

Ortex estimates SpaceX short sellers have earned $15.5 billion on paper since the June IPO as shares fell below the $135 offer price to a record $115.26. About 360 million shares, or 56% of free float, were on loan through Tuesday.

Earlier Thursday, Gregory Miller, managing director and equity research analyst at Citizens JMP Securities, told clients that despite the broad selloff across the AI complex, his outlook remains constructive and investor concerns appear overdone.

What Set Off the Latest Downdraft

Why We Think the Fear is Overdone

"The End of the AI Trade" — Eight Times in Two Years

Why We Remain Constructive

Hyperscale Capital Spending — Line of Sight to One Trillion Next Year

Looking ahead, the next major catalyst for SpaceX will be the launch of its massive Starship rocket later this evening.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 12:10

This American Drone-Motor Company Is Positioned For "Massive Procurement Tailwind"

Looking at the state of modern warfare, H.C. Wainwright analyst Amit Dayal initiated Unusual Machines with a "Buy" rating, telling clients the drone-part maker is emerging as a key player in "anchoring the US drone industry's sovereign supply chain."

Dayal called UMAC a "pure-play, American-made, NDAA-compliant drone-component manufacturer" that is perfectly positioned for a "massive procurement tailwind" across the US drone industry as the US government races to stockpile everything from one-way attack drones to interceptor drones.

What's key about UMAC is that it makes NDAA-compliant parts for drones. Its product portfolio spans flight controllers, electronic speed controllers (ESCs), analog video systems, FPV headsets, drone motors, and, pending the Upgrade Energy acquisition, batteries, with multiple products approved on the Blue UAS Framework.

Dayal estimates the US-made drone parts market could reach $3 billion to $5 billion as the Department of Defense and US drone manufacturers seek secure alternatives to Chinese suppliers.

US Drone Parts Market Forecasted to Boom 

Six UMAC components, including its Brave F7 flight controller, Brave 55A speed controller, and Aura FPV camera, have been approved for the Defense Innovation Unit's Blue UAS Framework.

The top catalyst is the DoD's roughly $1 billion Drone Dominance program, which is intended to rapidly expand the US inventory of small, inexpensive, and attritable drones.

The first procurement phase covers about 30,000 drones, while the next phase is expected to order roughly 60,000 systems during the second half of 2026. Additional phases could drive demand for approximately 250,000 drones in fiscal 2027. More than half of the initial vendors selected for Drone Dominance were already UMAC customers in some capacity, according to Dayal.

"A massive procurement tailwind underpins a multi-year unmanned-systems cycle," the analyst said, adding that UMAC is "building a vertically integrated, 'Made in the USA' component platform."

Cost to Buld a FPV

UMAC operates across 62,500 square feet at five manufacturing sites and its Orlando headquarters. The company's 17,000-square-foot motor facility began operating in October 2025 and was producing about 15,000 motors per month by March, with production forecasted to reach 100,000 motors per month later this year.

Global Drone Market Forecast 

Global Drone Parts Market Forecast

Dayal has a 12-month price target of $42 on UMAC. Analysts tracked by Bloomberg have an average target of $36.

Shares were trading around $20 on Wednesday morning.

In the previous report, we focused on AeroVironment, Ondas, Red Cat, AEVEX, Redwire, Insitu and Teledyne FLIR. Private companies covered included Anduril, Skydio, Shield AI, Quantum Systems, Performance Drone Works, DZYNE, Firestorm Labs, and Neros.

Read the full report here.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 11:30

"Closing Time" On The AI Bubble Is Sooner Than Most Think; Ed Dowd Warns Iran War Brings Global Recession Closer

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Wall Street money manager and financial analyst Ed Dowd of PhinanceTechnologies.com warned at the end of May we could see “$250 a barrel oil and 11% inflation as a worst-case scenario in 2026.” 

That didn’t happen... yet.  Dowd explains, “We had two scenarios when we talked last..."

" One was the conflict would get resolved in the April – May time frame. 

Oil would peak out around $125 (per barrel), and inflation would peak out in May and go lower. 

That’s what happened, but recently, MOU (Memorandum of Understanding with Iran) has been torn up and oil is back on the rise. 

Oil collapsed to around the low $70s to high $60s after the MOU.  It’s now $80 and change. 

So, unless this is resolved quickly, the other scenario is on the table...

If the conflict continues and gets worse, and you want to watch it progress, if we break out technically, meaningfully to $100 to $125, and back test and hold support, then the next level is $200 to $250 a barrel. 

All we are talking about here is my thesis that we are going into a global recession, and it gets pulled forward that much quicker.  We will have a burst of inflation and massive demand destruction.”

The Iran/US war is not the only headwind Dowd sees. 

AI (artificial intelligence) investment is in bubble territory according to Dowd, and the lights are about to go out on that trade.  Dowd says:

“The stock market is 45% AI and AI adjacent. 

When the equity market figures out the party may be slowing or it’s over, that will affect the stock market. 

It’s a feedback loop that I think is beginning.  Let’s call it the AI summer of discontent...

Closing time is closer than most people think.  The party has been going on for a while. 

We had this huge impulse in semiconductor stocks in April and May.  The indices have 17% to 19% of the S&P 500, the semiconductor index. 

That is a warning sign in and of itself.  This is a notoriously cyclical boom and bust industry... There is inflation going on in this... AI build. 

All the projections of return on investment are going the way of the dodo bird because they are now paying exorbitant prices for commodity memory chips.  Also, power costs are going up, and they have to build power plants.  The whole math does not work with the AI infrastructure in the credit driven AI complex. 

So, the math kind of implodes on itself at some point...

I think the party is closer to the end than the beginning, and closing time will be upon us soon.”

When the AI bubble pops, Dowd expect a “nasty pullback in the stock market.” 

This is why Dowd is telling investors to raise cash levels just like famed investor Warren Buffett is doing by holding record amounts of cash in his fund.  Dowd says, “Cash is dry powder.” 

And for those who think the US dollar is going to tank, Dowd thinks just the opposite and says, “The dollar looks quite bullish.”

Dowd still likes gold as a core asset, and his target price is unchanged at $10,000 per ounce in the next few years.

There is much more in the 34-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes One-on-One with money manager and investment expert Ed Dowd as he explains why he is still seeing big trouble for the US economy.   Dowd predicted this was coming in January with his report called “US Economy Outlook 2026.”

To get Dowd’s latest red-hot reporting, go to his new Substack called “Ed Dowd: Beyond the Narrative,” by clicking here.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 11:10

Software Vendor Fires Back At NJ Governor Over Noncitizen Voting Scandal

New Jersey's noncitizen voter registration scandal has taken an uncomfortable turn for Gov. Mikie Sherrill, and the vendor she blamed for it is no longer taking the fall quietly.

IDEMIA, the French multinational that has worked with New Jersey's Motor Vehicle Commission for more than 40 years, is refusing to play the role assigned to it. What the company is now saying about who was responsible for approving registrations undercuts the governor's account.

A voter arrives at the Moorestown Township Fire Station to cast a ballot in the 2025 general election. (Emma Lee/WHYY)

Sherrill revealed on Tuesday that more than 6,600 noncitizens ended up on New Jersey's voter rolls between June 2023 and June 2024, and that fewer than 400 of them cast ballots. The individuals answered "no" when asked on an MVC keypad whether they were U.S. citizens, she said, and "through no fault of their own, the system registered them anyway." New Jersey has roughly 6.6 million registered voters.

"Let me be clear: this entire situation is unacceptable," Sherrill said. "It's unacceptable that the vendor released software with such a glaring error, it's unacceptable that the MVC took a year to get this issue fixed and it's unacceptable that no one in the previous administration brought this to light, demanded accountability or took action when it happened years ago."

The previous administration was that of former Gov. Phil Murphy, also a Democrat.

IDEMIA told a different story. The company disputed the governor's characterization of its role, saying its software's function is limited to transmitting data from the MVC to New Jersey's Division of Elections, which the company says bears ultimate responsibility for verifying voter eligibility.

"IDEMIA works with the New Jersey Motor Vehicle Commission, and has for more than 40 years, to support the process through which eligible individuals may indicate their interest in registering to vote when applying for or renewing a driver's license or state-issued identification card," the company said in a statement. "IDEMIA's role is to transmit information through the motor vehicle system. The voter registration information is transmitted to the New Jersey Department of State, Division of Elections, which is ultimately responsible for verifying eligibility to vote. Information submitted by IDEMIA must still be validated and adjudicated by the Division of Elections."

Sherrill has said New Jersey will phase out the company's software regardless. She has also ordered the erroneous registrations removed, directed her chief counsel to investigate, and retained an outside firm, CSG Law, to conduct an independent review.

She simultaneously downplayed the severity of the situation and accused the Trump administration of trying to weaponize elections for political gain, saying the president has "zero credibility on the issue of election integrity."

The White House is all over it. "Democrats and their media allies have repeatedly said it is impossible for noncitizens to register to vote, let alone cast a ballot. Time and again, they have been proven wrong. As President Trump has said, there is nothing more important than the integrity of our elections," White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson said. "And this latest incident underscores the absolute necessity of the SAVE America Act. American voters deserve to have confidence that our elections are safe and secure."

Feds Get Involved

The dispute is no longer confined to New Jersey. Assistant Attorney General Harmeet Dhillon of the Justice Department's Civil Rights Division has opened a federal investigation and demanded the state produce full names, dates of birth, nationalities, residential addresses, and registration dates and locations for the affected registrants, citing New Jersey's obligations under the Help America Vote Act and the National Voter Registration Act.

Running alongside it is a far larger and far less settled number. The Department of Homeland Security says it identified 19,497 New Jersey voter registrations where an individual's name, date of birth, address, and Social Security number matched federal records indicating the person is a noncitizen, and that a broader review suggests the figure could reach 35,152. 

"Election security is national security," said DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin. "As President Trump announced last night, DHS has identified over 250,000 potential non-citizens illegally registered to vote in just 4 U.S. states. Only Americans should be electing American leaders."

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 10:50

Jim Jordan Refers Jack Smith To DOJ For Possible Prosecution

Authored by Bryan S. Jung via PJ Media,

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, has formally referred former Special Counsel Jack Smith to the Department of Justice for possible criminal prosecution, alleging that Smith made false statements under oath to Congress about the scope of his investigation into President Donald Trump.

According to Fox News, in a July 22 letter to Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, Jordan alleges that Smith intentionally misled the House Judiciary Committee during a December 2025 deposition by testifying that his office obtained only telephone toll records and did not seek or review the contents of lawmakers' text messages.

Jordan contends newly released records contradict that testimony and amount to obstruction of Congress.

"All individuals have an obligation to comply with a duly authorized congressional inquiry. Mr. Smith is no different," Jordan writes, accusing the former special counsel of making "intentionally false statements" designed to impede congressional oversight.

The referral follows the release of documents by Republican Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, who says Smith's investigative team accessed and reviewed text messages involving 44 members of Congress from both political parties, along with current and former Trump administration officials, during an investigation known as "Operation Arctic Frost."

Grassley also alleges investigators viewed some communications before a Justice Department "filter team" completed its privilege review, raising concerns about compliance with procedures intended to protect privileged information.

During his December deposition, Smith testified that his office sought telephone toll records containing historical routing information - including call numbers, dates, times and durations - but not the contents of calls or text messages. Republicans argue the newly released records show Smith's team obtained and reviewed message content, directly contradicting his sworn testimony.

The Justice Department confirms receipt of Jordan's criminal referral and says it will investigate any evidence of criminal conduct. No criminal charges have been filed, and the referral itself does not constitute a criminal prosecution.

Smith denies wrongdoing.

Last week, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) told Fox News' Sean Hannity that Smith should be "prosecuted."

"What did he do with the text messages? We don't know that yet. What we do know is he absolutely read them. He absolutely shared them with members of his team and all of that illegally," Hawley alleged.

"The Justice Department requires that there be screening for any members of Congress [regarding] their text messages. Jack Smith said under oath that he didn't seek the text messages of members of Congress, but in fact, we know that he did. So he lied, he violated the law, he violated the Constitution. This guy ought to be prosecuted."

Democratic House Judiciary Committee Ranking Member Jamie Raskin condemns the referral as "baseless and vindictive," arguing Republicans misrepresent Smith's testimony. Raskin says committee investigators never specifically questioned Smith about presidential records or members' text messages during more than 13 hours of testimony and maintains Smith truthfully answered the questions that were asked regarding telephone toll records rather than message content.

The referral marks the latest escalation in congressional Republicans' scrutiny of Smith. In November 2025, Jordan separately referred Smith's former deputy, Thomas Windom, to the Justice Department for alleged obstruction of Congress.

Jordan told then-Attorney General Pam Bondi that "Congress cannot perform its oversight function if witnesses who appear before its committees corruptly refuse to provide information that the law requires them to furnish. The obstruction of a committee investigation undermines Congress's core constitutional oversight obligations."

Jordan's latest referral asks the Justice Department to determine whether Smith's testimony warrants prosecution for perjury or making false statements before Congress.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 10:30

Trump Throws Abraham Accords Monkey Wrench Into Saudi Nuclear Deal At 11th Hour

President Trump has suddenly pulled back the reins on the Saudi nuclear deal, which is likely being felt as a major shock in Riyadh, given that the deal was already signed Wednesday by Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman.

Trump in a Thursday morning Truth social post declared that the deal will only be finally approved "totally subject to Saudi Arabia joining the very respected and successful Abraham Accords."

Upon Wednesday's signing, there was no mention of the Abraham Accords, also when the Energy Department hailed the deal on X, suggesting it was a 'done deal' and all wrapped up - although the text has not been released, and no definitive outlines have been publicly issued.

Also, the oil-rich kingdom did not mention anything about major stipulations like normalization with Israel, but instead an official statement only indicated that the deal would attempt to "diversify energy sources, advance cutting-edge technologies, and expand opportunities for cooperation and investment in ways that serve the mutual interests of the two friendly countries."

The deal has been controversial among US lawmakers, given it opens the potential for a Saudi path to a nuclear bomb, and broader proliferation in the Middle East. But Trump has sought to clamp down on such criticisms, stressing in his new statement there will ⁠be "no ⁠enrichment of ⁠material" under the agreement and that it "pertains only to non-military use."

The pact would allow US companies to build a uranium enrichment facility in Saudi Arabia - but the country's direct ability to enrich automatically opens the pathway to future weaponization.

Saudi Arabia's entry into the Abraham Accords has long been a major Trump administration priority, going back to the launch of the accords in Trump's first term, after which the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and later Sudan and Morocco - formally signed on.

But then the Gaza war happened, and Saudi sentiment soured. Even if the kingdom's ruling monarchy wanted to go ahead and enter normalization with Israel, leaders would have an angry population and powerful clerical class to deal with.

Clearly Trump just threw a big monkey wrench into the whole thing at the 11th hour: "A senior administration official told NBC News on Wednesday that Trump had approved the deal, which was expected to be submitted to Congress for review."

via Middle East Institute (MEI)

One regional journalist and analyst, Mohammad Shabani, had this to say in reaction: "Either Saudi Arabia quietly agreed to normalization as a condition for buying nuclear technology, or Trump is once again responding to Israeli pressure after a deal is struck by attempting to change the terms."

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 10:10

White House Accuses Moonshot AI Of Distilling Anthropic Tech For K3

Authored by Felix Ng via CoinTelegraph.com,

A White House official accused Moonshot AI of distilling Anthropic’s Fable AI model to develop Kimi K3, which launched last week.

In a post on X on Wednesday, White House Office of Science and Technology Policy Director Michael Kratsios alleged the Chinese AI firm developed an internal platform to distill US models at scale, using methods designed to evade detection.

“Legitimate AI distillation used to create smaller, more efficient models plays a vital role in this open innovation ecosystem,” he said.

“However, large-scale, covert industrial distillation aimed at stealing proprietary U.S. technology and undermining American research is unacceptable.”

Kimi K3 has emerged as one of China’s most capable AI models, intensifying Washington’s concerns that American models are being covertly used to accelerate China’s AI progress.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that the large-scale distillation attacks could result in sanctions and other restrictions.

“We support open-source AI and the innovation it unlocks. But open source is not open season on American IP,” said Bessent.

“When PRC firms conduct covert, industrial-scale distillation attacks that cross the line into IP theft, sanctions and Entity List designations will be on the table.”

Still, some AI researchers questioned claims that Anthropic’s latest AI model was used to train Kimi K3. 

Anthropic’s Fable 5 was re-released on July 1 after it was quickly taken offline due to US export controls, while Kimi K3 launched on July 16, giving a narrow window for distillation attacks to occur.

“There are only 15 days between fable 5 ban removal and kimi K3 release,” said Elie Bakouch, a researcher at AI startup Prime Intellect.

“I don’t think claiming that K3’s performance comes from fable distillation (even if they did it) makes sense technically.”

Dean Ball, OpenAI’s head of strategic futures, said on Friday he didn’t believe the K3 model’s performance could be “explained away by distillation or anything like that.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 09:50

Crop Prices Hit 3-Year High As Heat & War Stoke Supply Fears; Options Whale Places $20M Corn Bet

The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index (BCOMAGSP) climbed to a three-year high Wednesday as widening conflict across critical energy and grain trade corridors, from the Black Sea to the Strait of Hormuz and the southern Red Sea, collided with scorching heat waves across Europe and the US and mounting El Niño risks in critical agri growing belts, reviving the threat of global food inflation.

BCOMAGSP is a dollar-denominated benchmark that tracks 10 major agricultural futures, including Chicago and Kansas City wheat, corn, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, coffee, cocoa, sugar, and cotton. On Wednesday, the index jumped to a level not seen since July 2023, continuing a seven-week advance.

Chicago wheat and soybean futures hit two-year highs as Russian and Ukrainian strikes in the Black Sea threatened grain shipments from a region responsible for more than a quarter of global wheat exports. Rising crude prices are also boosting demand for biofuel feedstocks, while heat waves in Europe and the US threaten critical agricultural growing regions.

Then there's the El Niño weather phenomenon, which is set to be the strongest in more than 75 years. This raises the risk of adverse weather conditions across the US, Asia, Australia, and South America. The stronger the weather event becomes, the greater the threat to critical food supply chains, which are already vulnerable to drought, flooding, export restrictions, and rising protectionism.

Sea Surface Temps

A negative El Niño Southern Oscillation Index indicates pressure patterns consistent with El Niño, typically associated with weaker Pacific trade winds and warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. The SOI is now at levels not seen since 2005.

El Niño Weather Impacts

El Niño coverage:

• Strongest El Nino In 75 Years Sets Off Food Supply-Chain Alarm Bells
• UBS Warns El Nino May Intensify Food Inflation Across Asia
• First Major Weather Organization Declares El Nino Onset As Food Inflation Risks Intensify

Must Read:

• Super El Nino: Famine Follows War?

"What really drives the market is whether there is physical supply coming to those who need it," said Dennis Voznesenski, an agricultural economist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, as quoted by Bloomberg.

Voznesenski pointed out that while factors such as heat and conflict in the Gulf area have been simmering for weeks, the Black Sea conflict was "the straw that broke the camel's back."

Given all this, Bloomberg reported that an option trade made a $20 million bet that corn futures will surge to their highest since 2023, as reduced US planting, record exports, and heat-damaged crops tighten the supply outlook. The trade involved 105,000 November $5.50/$6 call spreads, equivalent to more than 500 million bushels.

The position begins paying off if corn rallies nearly 15% to $5.50 a bushel and could generate about $250 million if prices reach $6. December futures rose 2% on Wednesday to $4.8475, extending their July gain to 11%.

Beyond the BCOMAGSP basket, the grain that feeds half the world, rice is creeping higher and higher...

The UN's global food basket is also creeping higher.

Bank of America: The Timing Of The Next Grocery Inflation Surge Revealed By BofA

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 09:30

Oil Soars As Trump Warns Iran Will Pay For Future Houthi Shipping Attacks, Rubio Rules Out Deal

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Thursday that Iran is "begging for a deal" and "they need to come to their senses," adding that Tehran will "pay a very heavy price for the things they are doing." 

Speaking on the sidelines of the ASEAN conference in Manila, he claimed that "Iran is begging us, both directly and indirectly, 'Let’s do a deal. Let’s talk.'" But the reality remains that there's no public indicators showing this; instead, the Iranians have pretty aggressively sought to enforce their red lines, this week attacking a series of international ships in the Hormuz Strait.

Rubio tried to blame an alleged fracturing of the Iranian government, and a takeover by the 'hardline' faction of leadership. "The problem with Iran is every time they make a deal, the people in charge either break it or they want to change it. So it looks like they’re not ready to make a deal, so they’re going to continue to pay a price, and every night the price gets higher and higher," he asserted.

via Associated Press

Rubio then characterized Iran and its policies as "run by radical clerics" - calling them "oblivious" to its economic problems. In the background is the fact that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent months ago boasted that US policies and sanctions engineered a currency collapse in hopes that the January economic protests would topple the regime. This never materialized and now people in the Trump administration seem perplexed.

Rubio continued the blame-game while suggesting that if Tehran were to play ball on negotiating a deal for the Hormuz Strait, it could receive major economic benefits.

"Iran can be the richest country in the Middle East if they wanted to be. But instead, they take their money, and they use it and they give it to Hezbollah. They give it to Hamas. They give it to the Houthis. They give it to Shia militias. They give it to sponsored terrorism all over the world," he said.

Iran "will pay a very heavy price for the things they are doing. They are already paying a heavy price," he said. Rubio also responded to recent statements of the Iranians talking about exacting "an eye for an eye" in terms of military approach. The US top diplomat then asserted that President Trump's approach was "a head for an eye". He described that currently Iran's military-industrial base is being "decimated" - suffering "billions" of dollars" in damage. This as...

The US bombs Iran for the 12th consecutive night, killing at least two people and wounding 11 others in an attack on the Shalamcheh border crossing with Iraq. Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait have reported retaliatory missile and drone attacks from Iran.

But what's happening in the Red Sea right now does suggest that the Iranians have more cards to play. Their allies, the Houthis of Yemen, have initiated closure of the Bab al-Mandab Strait to all Saudi shipping. At least two vessels were attacked, with unconfirmed but widely circulating video showing one on fire and in distress:

BIG: First Saudi oil tanker reportedly hit by Houthi missile near Yemen, engulfed in flames. pic.twitter.com/R3nG7FSdW1

— Clash Report (@clashreport) July 22, 2026

The attacks on the tankers pushed Brent up near $100 - its highest since May 26th...

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has newly announced he communicated to Saudi Crown Mohammed bin Salman Pakistan's strong condemnation of Houthi aggression against Saudi vessels.

"Such actions are unacceptable, violate international law, threaten freedom of navigation, and undermine regional peace and security," Sharif said in a statement on X. The PM emphasized that Pakistan stands "firmly and resolutely" with the Saudi leadership.

President Trump is threatening to take military action against the Houthis, and on Thursday morning took it a step further in saying he will hold Iran itself accountable for Houthi actions. "The US will hold Iran responsible," he wrote, explaining that "the Houthis area a Surrogate and/or Proxy of Iran." He warned that "major military punishment will be inflicted upon Iran and, of course, the Houthis" themselves.

As for Rubio's remarks, there were still clear signs that the administration hasn't totally abandon efforts to revive talks. "The president always prefers to negotiate and reach a deal… and we are prepared to do that. We've tried to do that now for a year and a half," Rubio had further stated from the ASEAN conference.

But then he again reverted to the argument: "If there’s any undermining of confidence, it’s confidence that the Iranian system as it currently is structured can reach an agreement." Rubio added, "Ships are trying to go through the Straits, and they’re getting blown up. Commercial ships are going through the Straits, and they’re being blown up."

As for the big picture of where things stand, Former National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent highlights to nature of the current 'all bad options' of the table and quagmire the White House has gotten itself into.

"This is a bombing campaign in search of a strategy," Kent wrote on X. We are choosing escalation when de-escalation remains an option, entrenching ourselves deeper into a broader war that we don’t have the capability or desire to sustain. There is not a military solution here that will lead to a win."

There was so much smug talk up to last week about how Gulf pipelines would make the Strait of Hormuz irrelevant and haha isn’t Iran foolish for hastening the SoH’s demise. This tanker’s oil came from Yanbu, ie KSA’s East-West pipeline to the Red Sea. https://t.co/DrOiAnGytT

— Mark Ames (@MarkAmesExiled) July 22, 2026

Kent noted that "More bombing will not convince Iran to open the SOH or to give us the deal we want, it will only harden their position. Bombing civilian infrastructure will not make the people rise up against the regime, it will rally them around it."

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 08:55

AIpocalypse No! Initial Jobless Claims Collapse To Lowest Since 1969

Amid ongoing exclamations of an AIpocalypse in the jobs market, the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time crashed to just 187k last week (well below expectations)...

That is the lowest since 1969...

Additionally, continuous jobless claims tumbled back below 1.8mm (1.796mm) Americans...

Zero signs of labor market stress in any of this data as the 'low hire, no fire' economy pushes forward.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 08:39

ECB Keeps Rates Unchanged (As Expected), Warns 'Full Energy Inflationary Shock Yet To Come'

The European Central Bank  kept its key deposit rate unchanged at 2.25 percent and said it was "closely monitoring" the inflationary impact of fresh conflict in the Middle East.

The ECB reiterated it won’t pre-commit but act one meeting at a time based on information as it arrives.

"Uncertainty remains high and the full inflationary impact of the energy shock has yet to play out," the lender of last resort for the 21 countries that use the euro said.

"The Governing Council is therefore closely monitoring the intensity and duration of the shock."

The ECB’s hawkish posture preserves its status at the vanguard of Group-of-Seven central banks after it last month became the first in that club to raise rates since the Iran war began.

Last month’s rate increase sparked discussions that the ECB might make a mistake similar to hikes in 2008 and 2011 which were quickly rolled back.

That debate persisted after peace talks between Washington and Tehran caused energy prices to drop sharply.

For all their sense of nervousness then however, the latest flare-up in fighting has emboldened policymakers in judging their recent hike to be fully justified.

“With today’s decision, the Governing Council remains well positioned to navigate the uncertainty caused by the conflict.”

The euro extended its overnight weakness against the dollar...

...and Bund yields remained elevated...

For now, traders are largely unmoved on the future ECB rate trajectory, holding around 48bps of hikes by year-end. As Bloomberg Economics' David Powell noted: 

“Even when oil prices were close to their lowest for the summer, President Christine Lagarde retained a hawkish tone. Buoyant commodity prices keep the Governing Council on track to raise borrowing costs again in September, when it’s armed with fresh forecasts from the staff economists, for a final time in this short tightening cycle.”

Deutsche Bank Chief European Economist Mark Wall says the ECB’s pause today shouldn’t be seen as hesitation. Rather, he says it’s a hold while the central bank updates forecasting before hiking in September. 

“The only question is: will one more hike to 2.50% be enough to curb the inflation risks? The answer will depend on growth as much as it will on inflation.”

The September meeting is widely seen as a natural point to deliver such a move if required, backed by new quarterly staff forecasts, inflation prints for the two prior months and more economic data including several business surveys.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 08:30

Elon Vows AI-Made 'Odyssey' After Blasting Nolan's Take On Homer

Via American Greatness,

Elon Musk says he’ll beat Hollywood at its own game, pledging that his artificial intelligence venture will produce a full-length film of Homer’s “The Odyssey” by year’s end, one he insists will stay faithful to the ancient text in a way Christopher Nolan’s blockbuster adaptation has not.

Musk, believed to be the first trillionaire in modern history, unveiled the project Tuesday evening on X, posting AI-generated footage from Grok Imagine depicting a scene from the epic poem.

“Before this year ends, Grok Imagine will make a full-length movie of ‘The Odyssey’ that is historically accurate and true to the art of Homer,” he wrote, offering no further details on production, casting or distribution.

Before this year ends, Grok Imagine will make a full-length movie of The Odyssey that is historically accurate and true to the art of Homer https://t.co/bVHzUmY9WN

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 22, 2026

In a follow-up post, Musk said he was “down” with a fan’s pitch to instead hand the project to actor and director Mel Gibson, backed by $100 million, to produce “an Odyssey adaptation with painstakingly historically accurate ships, armour, weapons and casting, with all dialogue taken straight from the original poem and delivered in Homeric Greek.”

The announcement is the latest salvo in Musk’s long-running feud with Nolan’s “The Odyssey,” a Matt Damon-led adaptation Musk has criticized repeatedly over its casting choices.

In January, Musk wrote that “Chris Nolan lost his integrity,” responding to a post that called the film “an insult to the author” over the casting of Lupita Nyong’o as Helen of Troy.

In May, after conservative commentator Matt Walsh suggested Nolan cast Nyong’o only to avoid being labeled “racist,” Musk replied with a single word: “True.”

Musk’s criticism hasn’t dented the film’s commercial performance, however. The R-rated, three-hour epic pulled in a $120 million opening weekend, according to Breitbart News, far exceeding pre-release industry projections of $80 million to $90 million.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 08:20

Futures Slide After Google Earnings, Oil & Bond Yields Jump On Houthi Escalation

US equity futures are lower as WTI breaches $90/bbl and Brent approaches $100/bbl (Houthi escalation in the Red Sea as two Saudi tankers were struck), pushing bond yields higher with longer-dated yields seen making new highs, globally. But, Alphabet's underwhelming results - while dragging down Mag7 names - are boosting Semis / AI (CapEx spend) which may mean the market is returning to its barbell of longs in AI / Semis plus Energy versus shorts in Rate-sensitives.

*  *  *

Overnight saw oil prices extend their recent resurgence with WTI crude topping $90/bbl. The Iran-aligned Houthis said they targeted two oil tankers in the Red Sea, potentially opening up another front in the war.

US forces struck Iranian military targets including maritime capabilities, missile and drone storage facilities, coastal surveillance sites, and air defense assets, Centcom said.

Commodities are led by the Energy complex; Base is higher, Precious is lower, and Ags mixed.

Pre-mkt, US yields are up 3-4bps across the curve with USD flat.

The surge in crude prices has dragged rate-hike odds higher (July very much back on the table)...

In Equities, Mag7 is weaker with all 7 names lower with GOOGL, TXN, TSLA, and IBM all lower following earnings. 

Semis / Memory are bid. Defensives and Energy are higher with Cyclicals mostly lower ex-Industrials which are being boosted as part of the AI theme.

Utils are bid with AI outweighing higher yields. 

European stocks fall as technology shares are dragged lower by STMicroelectronics, which slumped 17% after disappointing with its sales outlook.

Elsewhere, Nestle posted its biggest intraday drop since 2020.

Stoxx 600 falls 0.6% to 642.78 with 405 members down, 184 up, and 11 unchanged.

Asian shares rose as sentiment improved on expectations that regional tech hardware companies will benefit from Alphabet’s plans for more AI spending. 

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 1.4%, led by Samsung and SK Hynix.

A Bloomberg gauge of Asian chip shares advanced as much as 1.7%, extending its gains for a third session after tipping into a bear market last week.

Gains in artificial intelligence and semiconductor shares pushed the benchmarks in South Korea and Japan higher. 

Thursday’s moves across Asian markets reflect investors’ willingness to prioritize AI enthusiasm, earnings and capital spending plans in the short-term over geopolitical tensions that linger, primarily from the Middle East.

Top Overnight News

• The ECB is expected to maintain interest rates at 2.25% today, buying time to assess the fallout from renewed Middle East hostilities.

• A rally in Indonesian stocks put the nation’s benchmark index on track for a bull market, helped by a rotation into market laggards as well as a recent credit-rating announcement.

• The oil price has risen above $98 a barrel for the first time since early June after Iran-backed Houthi militants said they had attacked two Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea. 

• The U.S. is surging forces, medics and weaponry to the Middle East to give President Trump more muscular military options as he considers expanding the conflict against Iran, according to people familiar with the matter.

• The U.S. military used a B-1 long-range bomber on Tuesday to strike Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets in Iran, U.S. officials said. It was the first time the U.S. conducted a B-1 mission since fighting with Iran resumed 12 days ago.

• Russia is set to receive a shipment of fuel from India, as Moscow is forced to import petrol after Ukrainian drone attacks destroyed parts of its major refineries.

• A rare surge in Latin American currencies is squeezing exporters by reducing the value of US dollar-denominated revenue. Coffee growers, banana producers and manufacturers face shrinking margins despite stronger investor confidence.

• Allies of Donald Trump have discussed whether an external review of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse might justify removing Fed Governor Michael Barr over his role overseeing bank supervision at the time, people familiar said.

• Private equity takeovers of software groups are at a turning point as investors hunt for bargains among companies at risk of being disrupted by AI.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

EQUITIES

• European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.6%) started Thursday's busy earnings day in the red, with higher energy prices and disappointing earnings weighing on indices. On the geopolitical front, the US and Iran exchanged strikes for the 12th consecutive night, while US President Trump said Iran is getting hit so hard and that they want to make a deal. Additionally, Yemeni Houthis targeted two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, while reports noted that at least 9 ships have stopped passing through Bab al-Mandeb, following the blockade on Saudi ports by Houthis.
• Sectors highlight the negative bias. Energy (+1.6%) tops the sector pile, with Real Estate (+0.8%) also printing decent gains. Food, Beverages & Tobacco (-2.9%) is the sector laggard, following Nestle earnings in which RIG missed estimates. Consumer Products & Services (-2.0%) and Travel & Leisure (-1.5%) rounds out the key underperformers.
• A lot of big European earnings this morning, with focus concentrated on STMicroelectronics figures. Its Q2 metrics beat estimates; however, its guidance and commentary have driven the biggest drop in shares since October 2025 (-13.8%). The Co. guided Q3 net revenue of "about" USD 3.7bln, which missed analysts' expectations, and raised its revenue ambition for data centres due to continued strong demand. Citi analysts say that shares already reflect a recovery across its end markets and acceleration in revenue from data centres. Additionally, analysts say that shares may struggle in the near-term.
• US equity futures are softer across the board, with downside in tech-heavy NQ weighed on by STMicroelectronics earnings. Mag-7 earnings kicked off yesterday after the bell, with Alphabet and Tesla reporting Q2 metrics. For GOOGL (-3.9% pre-market), it sharply raised its AI capex forecast (which benefited Asia-Pac chip names overnight). For TSLA (-5.6% pre-market), Q2 figures disappointed, as adj. EPS missed estimates.
• Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) Q2 2026 (USD): EPS 9.11 (exp. 2.88), Revenue 119.8bln (exp. 117.00bln), Operating income 40.77bln (exp. 40.55bln), Capex 44.92bln (exp. 44.15bln). Raises FY26 capex view to USD 195bln-205bln (prev. 180bln-190bln).
• Tesla Inc. (TSLA) Q2 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.33 (exp. 0.52), Revenue 28.2bln (exp. 25.99bln), Gross margin 16.8% (exp. 19.4%), Automotive revenue 20.52bln (exp. 18.68bln).
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news

FX

• G10s are mixed after initial losses for the Greenback were reversed as energy prices continue to determine bias. Action which has benefitted energy exporters CAD and NOK, the sole currencies firmer against the Buck.
• USD erased earlier modest losses as energy lifted to session highs with the Brent Sept’26 contract approaching levels not seen since May. Geopolitics remains constructive for the Buck, and there are no signs of immediate de-escalation - focus on Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian vessels alongside flows through Bab al-Mandeb. Elsewhere, US earnings after the NY close were received poorly, with Google and Tesla slipping between 3-5% premarket, hitting indices and potentially increasing appetite for the Buck’s haven status. DXY rose from beneath the 21DMA @101, to mark a high at recent resistance near 101.20/1.
• EUR is lacklustre against the Buck ahead of the ECB meeting, where just 4bps of tightening is implied by markets. The Governing Council is likely to convey a hawkish message after the recent energy pressures. Should the bank stand pat on rates as analysts/markets expect, focus will be on guidance which could spur a move above two fully priced 25bp hikes by year-end. EUR/USD is well off highs made early in the domestic session, though found support towards 1.14. ING says this morning its near-term bias is tilted to the downside, noting if Gulf newsflow lacks signs of de-escalation, it looks for the pair to slip towards 1.1380 in the coming days.
• AUD is resilient against the Buck after strong jobs numbers overnight. The data saw headline Employment Change smash estimates at 76.3k (exp. 15k), and the Unemployment Rate remained at 4.4% despite higher Participation. It appears NZD is used as a funder to express AUD hawkishness given USD swings on geopolitics, with AUD/NZD +0.4%, while AUD/USD is flat.
• TRY looks to the CBRT meeting, where analysts have shifted calls for easing in exchange for a hold amid the recent energy pressures. Turkish inflation eased to 32.1% Y/Y in June from 32.6% in May, as energy prices fell following the US-Iran MoU, which has since broken down. Despite the softer print, most analysts still forecast year-end inflation above the CBRT’s 26% target (incl. GS, MUFG at 30%), suggesting rates will remain higher for longer, particularly after the recent resurgence in Gulf tensions. Banks mostly expect the bank to stand pat on its key rate; HSBC said it could instead adjust its funding policy, lowering the average funding cost for commercial banks without formally changing the policy rate; JPMorgan expects the CBRT to resume one-week repo auctions, while Garanti BBVA, which recently shifted its call, expects a hold, but does not rule out easing. USD/TRY is lacklustre ahead of the decision.

FIXED INCOME

• A bearish start for fixed income as energy climbed overnight and into the European morning after the 12th consecutive evening of action by the US in the Middle East. Action that has taken Brent above USD 98/bbl and weighed on global yields.
• Overnight, JGBs reacted to the above and also a Reuters source report from Wednesday that the BoJ is alert to inflationary risks that could result in tightening taking place faster than the market is pricing. JGBs down to a 127.04 base, lower by just over 20 ticks.
• USTs hold at a 108-09 low, with downside of just a few ticks on the day. Today’s docket features weekly claims (initial claims coincide with the BLS survey window), before a 10yr TIPS auction and the latest Chicago Fed.
• Bunds under pressure as above, down to a 124.17 base at worst but currently holding around 15 ticks clear of that but still lower by over 20 ticks on the day. Action that has pushed the 10yr yield to a 3.2% peak, just above May’s best to a new YTD high, a dynamic that is also reflected at the short-end, where the 2yr has notched a new YTD peak of 2.88%.
• Energy has driven much of this, but the short-end is also likely being spurred further by the associated implications for the ECB. While a hold is the base case today, the accompanying guidance may well be more hawkish and explicit than the usual no-signal, data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach we have become accustomed to. Note, given the moves in recent days, more hawkish guidance may only spark a modest hawkish reaction, while a reiteration of the above non-committal language could see a relatively more pronounced dovish move. However, again, any such reaction would likely be limited in nature as geopolitics and, by extension, energy dictate the narrative.
• Gilts opened lower and underperformed, in the typical action seen when energy is bid. Opened with losses of 15 ticks and then slipped to an 86.07 base, just above the 86.03 low from April but some way clear of May’s 84.98 contract trough. No real reaction to commentary from UK Chancellor Healey this morning, who stuck with familiar language. The day ahead for UK rates may take direction from the ECB as outlined above, as any hawkish nod from Europe would be in contrast to the on hold for the foreseeable narrative which remains around the BoE, despite the dissenters and clearly contrasting views on Threadneedle Street.

COMMODITIES

• Middle Eastern geopolitics continues to dominate price action, with the US and Iran exchanging strikes for the 12th consecutive night, whilst US President Trump said Iran is getting hit so hard and that they want to make a deal. He added that Iran will be ready very soon but is not ready for a deal yet. Hostilities across the region have also expanded, as Yemeni Houthis targeted two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, while reports noted that at least 9 ships have stopped passing through Bab al-Mandeb, following the blockade on Saudi ports by Houthis. On that note, Pakistan's Foreign Ministry, on the Yemeni Houthi threat, said, "If our ships are attacked, it will be treated as an attack on Pakistan, and we will retaliate”. As a reminder, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a mutual defence pact in September 2025. The treaty states that an attack on one nation is considered an attack on both. If the Houthis launch severe ballistic missile strikes on Saudi territory or fully disrupt its vital energy exports, Riyadh could formally trigger this pact. This could further complicate the picture as Pakistan is the main mediator in US-Iran talks. Further on this front, Pakistani PM Sharif held a call with Saudi Crown Prince MBS; the two condemned the Houthi militia’s attacks against Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea; and reaffirmed Pakistan's "complete solidarity" with Saudi Arabia. Elsewhere, reports noted the sound of an explosion was heard in Qatar and Jordan, whilst an explosion was also heard in Iran around Qeshm city near Konarak. Elsewhere in geopolitics, US Secretary of State Rubio said he had a good and frank conversation with the Russian Foreign Minister; the US is prepared to take a constructive role to end the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, EU Ambassadors have reached a political agreement on the 21st sanctions package against Russia, according to diplomats; additionally, the bloc is to freeze the oil price cap for a 12-month period.
• WTI and Brent futures at session highs. WTI Sep’26 trades beyond the USD 90/bbl mark, currently at the top end of its USD 87.32-90.35/bbl range. Brent Sep’26 resides near USD 98.50/bbl in a USD 94.89-98.75/bbl range. Dutch TTF prices have waned after hitting resistance near EUR 64/MWh before dipping sub-62.50/MWh. This morning, sources reported that buyers of LNG from Qatar and the UAE are seeking lower prices and stronger supply guarantees as risks to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz increase.
• Precious metals are softer as rising oil prices once again hit by the rising oil prices. Spot gold trades in a USD 4,087-4,141/oz range, within yesterday’s USD 4,076-4,166/oz range. Spot silver briefly dipped under yesterday’s 58.73/oz low to currently trade towards the bottom end of a USD 58.66-60.07/oz range.
• Base metals are mostly lower amid the inflationary impact of higher oil prices. 3M LME copper trades towards the lower end of a USD 13,709.00-13,873.70/t range.
• Buyers of LNG from Qatar and the UAE are seeking lower prices and stronger supply guarantees as risks to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz increase, according to sources.
• Kazakhstan's daily oil production fell after loading operations were suspended at the CPC export terminal on the Black Sea, sources say, output down 21% on Wednesday vs July average

TRADE/TARIFFS

• China's MOFCOM said China and the US are working towards the tariff cut plan; to maintain close communication.
• UAE Foreign Trade Minister said imports of high-end US AI chips expected soon, Bloomberg reported.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• The UK PM announced that pubs, clubs and live music venues are set to receive a 20% cut to their business rates bills, saving the typical pub an estimated GBP 1,100/yr.
• UK Chancellor Healey said he is as concerned about the cost of business as the cost of living.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• US President Trump said the government will face a shutdown in September.
• Some Trump admin officials and allies have privately discussed whether an external review of the 2023 failure of Silicon Valley Bank could provide a legal basis to remove Fed Governor Barr, according to Bloomberg.
• US is investigating Chinese AI firm Moonshot over chip access, with the BIS probing if the Co. used US chips for model training, according to The Information.
• Trump admin is reportedly divided about restricting Chinese AI models, with the White House mulling preventing Chinese labs from distilling US models, and Commerce Department favours incentivising US companies to develop open models to counter China

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• US Secretary of State Rubio said Iran was intending to double missile stockpile and that it looks like Iran is not ready to make a deal. He added that the price on Iran will get higher every night until they come to their senses but that Iran is begging to reach a deal.
• US CENTCOM said the US completed the 12th consecutive night of strikes against Iran, in which the US struck Iranian military targets including maritime capabilities, missile and drone storage facilities, surveillance sites and defence assets.
• US military has started using B-1 long-range bombers in its strikes against Iran, according to i24's Stein citing a source that stated the first strike using the bomber was conducted on Tuesday.
• A senior US official said negotiations continue but the decisive moment for expanding hostilities is rapidly approaching, N12 reported.
• There were several explosions heard in Kuwait, Qatar and Jordan while sirens were sounded in Bahrain. In Iran, explosions were heard in Bushehr, Bandar Mahshahr, Sirik, Konarak City and Ramshir. Additionally, Iranian media reported that a power station was hit by a missile near the Bushehr nuclear power plant in the south of the country, according to Sky News Arabia.
• IRGC said one of three offending ships attempting to pass the Strait of Hormuz caught fire and the other two quickly turned back, while it also targeted US bases in Jordan, and declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. Additionally, the IRGC said it targeted US military in Kuwait's Al-Adiri camp and Ali Al-Salem Airbase.
• Yemen's Houthis announced they targeted two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. In other reports, at least 9 ships have stopped passing through Bab al-Mandeb, following the blockade on Saudi ports by Houthis.
• Two Chinese supertankers carrying Saudi crude are heading to Bab al-Mandeb, according to reports citing data.
• Pakistani PM Sharif held a call with Saudi Crown Prince MBS. The two condemned the Houthi militia’s attacks against Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea and reaffirmed Pakistan's "complete solidarity" with Saudi Arabia.
• Pakistan's Foreign Minister, on US-Iran talks, said they can not confirm 10-15 days or anything because these are confidential communications but they have not lost hope even during the darkest days of this escalation cycle.
• Pakistan's Foreign Ministry, on the Yemeni Houthi threat, said that if Pakistani ships are attacked, it will be treated as an attack on Pakistan and will retaliate.
• UKMTO said it received a report of an incident 70NM of Al-Shuqaiq, Saudi Arabia, with a tanker reported to have been struck by an unknown projectile, causing a fire on board.
• Oman’s Foreign Ministry said it is working with Saudi Arabia and Yemeni parties and the UN special envoy to resume the political process aimed at achieving regional security and stability.
• The US is on course to get no new military spending before the election and they are warning it could be a huge problem for them amidst the war with Iran, according to Semafor.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

• US Secretary of State Rubio said he had a good and frank conversation with the Russian Foreign Minister and the US is prepared to take a constructive role to end the war in Ukraine.
• Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov confirmed that Russia is prepared to resolve the conflict in Ukraine through political and diplomatic means, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry.
• EU Ambassadors have reached a political agreement on the 21st sanctions package against Russian, according to diplomats. Additionally, to freeze the oil price cap for a 12 month period.

OTHER

• China is conducting live fire, military drills in some areas of the Taiwan Strait on Thursday and Friday.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin continues to pare back Tuesday's gains but remains firmly above the USD 65k mark.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks were predominantly in the green as semiconductor strength helped the region shrug off the lacklustre lead from Wall Street and the widening geopolitical escalation in the Middle East.
• ASX 200 was lifted amid outperformance in the commodity-related and materials sectors, while sentiment was also helped by strong jobs data.
• Nikkei 225 rallied at the open but is well off today's best levels amid higher oil prices and after hitting resistance around the 67,000 level.
• KOSPI remained driven by semiconductor advances with both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in the green, while chaebols dominated the list of biggest gainers and participants also digested stronger-than-expected South Korean GDP data.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed, with Hong Kong led higher by strength in mining names, while the mainland was lacklustre as trade-related frictions lingered, with the US investigating Chinese AI firm Moonshot over chip access and whether the Co. used US chips for model training.

Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Inflation has remained top of the agenda for markets this morning, with Brent crude moving up to almost $96/bbl overnight as the Middle East escalation continues. Indeed, the strikes between the US and Iran show no sign of easing, and the Houthis said they targeted two oil tankers in the Red Sea yesterday, raising fears that the conflict is widening. So that’s pushed oil prices up to a 7-week high, and has also fuelled speculation about more rate hikes. For instance, futures are currently pricing in a 36% probability of a Fed rate hike as soon as next week, and bond yields jumped as well, with the US 30yr real yield (+0.4bps) closing at a post-2008 high of 2.93% yesterday. So it was a tough backdrop, and equities struggled to gain traction too, with the S&P 500 down -0.14% yesterday, whilst futures are down another -0.13% this morning following earnings from Alphabet and Tesla.

We’ll start with the geopolitics, as the US-Iran conflict has shown no sign of easing, and there’s still no indication of any emerging peace deal either. In fact, President Trump posted yesterday that if Iran shoots at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, then the US would “bomb and destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT”. And shortly after, Trump said in person that Iran would pay a big price after US troops were killed, whilst Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi posted that aggression against Iran “will compel a powerful and decisive response”, and that those “who contribute to such aggression, whatever the kind of support, will also be considered as legitimate targets”. Overnight, US Central Command confirmed that they’d completed another round of strikes against Iran, whilst oil markets have come under fresh pressure given the news about the Houthis targeting two oil tankers in the Red Sea. So that’s raised fresh supply fears given Saudi Arabia has redirected oil exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.

That backdrop drove a fresh jump in commodity prices, with oil prices continuing to move higher. So Brent crude jumped +3.36% to $94.07/bbl by yesterday’s close, and is up a further +1.96% this morning to $95.94/bbl. Moreover, investors also priced in a longer period of high oil prices, and the 6-month Brent future (+0.59%) hit a one-month high of $81.74/bbl yesterday as well. And elsewhere, the energy shock was extending beyond oil prices, with European natural gas futures (+4.82%) exceeding their recent high back in March yesterday, closing at levels last seen in early 2023, at €62.54/MWh.

The latest rise in energy prices led to fresh concerns about a more prolonged stagflationary shock, with investors pricing in more inflation as a result. In fact, the 1yr Euro inflation swap (+4.7bps) was up for an 8th consecutive day to 2.64%, whilst the 1yr US inflation swap (+1.2bps) also rose to 2.05%. Unsurprisingly, that also saw investors price in a more hawkish path for central banks. So Fed futures are now pricing in a 36% chance of a rate hike next week, having now unwound most of the moves after the downside CPI surprise last week. And over in Europe, investors are now pricing in 48bps of further hikes by year-end, on top of the 25bps we had last month. Indeed, that’s the most hawkish path priced for the ECB in the last couple of months.

With markets expecting more inflation and more rate hikes, that meant sovereign bonds took a fresh hit on both sides of the Atlantic as well. So US Treasury yields moved higher, with the 2yr yield (+3.5bps) up to 4.30%, its highest since February 2025, whilst the 10yr yield (+2.7bps) hit its highest since May, at 4.66%. In addition, there were some fresh milestones for real yields, with the 2yr real yield (+3.0bps) up to its highest since September 2024, at 2.34%, whilst the 10yr real yield (+1.6bps) hit its highest since October 2023, at 2.36%. Over in Europe there were more marginal increases, but yields on 10yr bunds (+0.7bps), OATs (+0.6bps) and BTPs (+0.8bps) all moved higher as well.

As all that was happening, equities have put in a much more mixed performance over the last 24 hours. In the US the tone has been more negative, with the S&P 500 down -0.14%. But in other regions things have been much more positive, and overnight we’ve seen the KOSPI (+3.98%), the Hang Seng (+1.34%) and the Nikkei (+0.52%) all advance. The main exception has been in mainland China, where the CSI 300 (-0.20%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.19%) are both lower. But the European indices put in a solid performance as well yesterday, with the STOXX 600 up +0.58%.

US equity futures have continued to lose ground overnight following Alphabet and Tesla’s earnings after the US close. Alphabet delivered a solid earnings and revenue beat, reporting 82% yoy growth in cloud revenue in Q2 ($24.8bn vs $22.5bn est.). But its shares fell by over -3% in after-hours trading as the company increased its 2026 capex plan to a range of $195-205bn (vs. $186bn est.). And Tesla fell by over -4% after-hours after the company reported its first negative quarter of free cash flows in over two years, as solid auto sales were outweighed by a 47% yoy surge in operating costs. So futures on the S&P 500 are down another -0.13% this morning.

In general however, the equity picture has been pretty resilient over the last 24 hours, despite the latest uptick in oil prices, with fresh gains in Asia overnight. That might seem striking, but we’ve written before (link here) how oil prices beneath $100/bbl haven’t been enough to cause a meaningful dent in risk assets. Indeed, if you look earlier in the year, it wasn’t until they got to around $110/bbl that you saw meaningful vulnerabilities for equities and credit. Likewise, back in the 2022 energy shock, it was a similar real-terms threshold for Brent (above $110/bbl in today’s prices) that started to cause meaningful stress, which we’re still some way from right now. So for now at least, the current pattern is still consistent with what we saw earlier in the year.

Elsewhere in Asia, the yen did briefly strengthen yesterday after a Bloomberg report said that BoJ officials were open to faster rate hikes than the consensus expected. According to the report, it said officials were aware of expectations for hikes roughly every six months, but they were open to earlier moves instead. Moreover, the article said there were signs of inflation becoming more entrenched, whilst the yen’s decline meant there were further inflationary pressures. Those gains were then pared back, and this morning the yen is still trading at 163.06 per US dollar. However, front-end yields have continued to climb, with Japan’s 2yr yield (+2.5bps) at a post-1995 high of 1.48% this morning.

Otherwise overnight, the Australian dollar has strengthened +0.28% against the US dollar after the latest employment data for June led to mounting expectations of another RBA rate hike this year. The data showed employment up by +76.3k in June (vs. +15.0k expected), which was the biggest monthly jump in 14 months.

Looking forward, today’s main highlight will be the ECB’s policy decision at 13:15 London time. It’s widely expected they’ll keep rates on hold, after hiking at the last meeting in June. But given the latest surge in oil and gas prices, the focus will be on what they signal ahead, with markets pricing almost two further hikes by year-end. Our European economists think the ECB will maintain neutral communications in the press conference. So no explicit forward guidance, with an emphasis on a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach that avoids pre-committing to a specific path. However, they do think the ECB will convey a hawkish stance on inflation, consistent with another 25bp hike in September being highly probable. For more info, see their full ECB preview here.

Otherwise in Europe, UK gilts saw a very marginal outperformance after the June CPI data surprised on the downside. It showed headline inflation falling more than expected to +2.6% in June (vs. +2.7% expected). However, some of the details weren’t quite as dovish in their implications, with core CPI actually remaining at +2.6% (vs. +2.5% expected). So 10yr gilt yields were still up up +0.5bps on the day, only slightly beneath the +0.7bps increase for 10yr bunds.

Looking at the day ahead, the main highlight will be the ECB’s monetary policy decision and President Lagarde’s subsequent press conference. Otherwise, data releases include the US weekly initial jobless claims, and the European Commission’s advance consumer confidence indicator for the Euro Area in July. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Intel.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/23/2026 - 08:05