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Q2-2025 Earnings Season Preview

Q2-2025 Earnings Season Preview

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Next week, the Q2-2025 earnings season will begin in earnest as a barrage of S&P 500 companies report, starting with the Wall Street money center banks on Tuesday and Wednesday. Since earnings drive the market by supporting investor expectations, what should investors expect? Let’s dig into the details.

Over the last few months, according to data from S&P Global, the Q2-2025 earnings estimates have declined from $234/share in the original March 2024 estimate to $220/share as of June 15th. That $14 drop in estimates is partially due to the impact of tariff concerns on corporate outlooks.

According to FactSet:

“Heading into the end of the quarter, analysts have reduced earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies for the second quarter more than average. However, the percentage of S&P 500 companies issuing negative earnings guidance for the second quarter is less than average. As a result, estimated earnings for the S&P 500 for the second quarter are lower today compared to expectations at the start of the quarter. In addition, the index is expected to report its lowest year-over-year earnings growth rate since Q4 2023 (4.0%).

In terms of estimate revisions for companies in the S&P 500, analysts have lowered earnings estimates for Q2 2025 by a larger margin than average. On a per-share basis, estimated earnings for the second quarter have decreased by 4.1% to date. This decline is larger than the 5-year average (-3.0%) and the 10-year average (-3.1%) for a quarter.”

Again, many of those negative revisions are tied to concerns over tariffs under the current Administration, and the lack of finalized “trade deals” keeps forward estimates in flux. However, as we move into Q3 and Q4 of this year, there should be sufficient resolutions to stabilize forecasts.

The macro-tailwinds of easing trade tensions, falling energy prices, and optimism over Fed rate cuts have helped equity markets return to new highs in June. However, some of those advances will be tested in the coming weeks, as there is a risk of earnings disappointment, particularly as we see continued weakness in the economic data. The Economic Composite Index (roughly 100 data points) has decreased sharply in the last two months. Historically, earnings track real economic activity, suggesting a risk of disappointment exists.

Why Estimates Are Being Cut More Sharply

There are three core drivers to explain the steeper-than-normal downward revisions in Q2-2025 earnings.

Rising trade risks: Trump’s tariff actions renewed mid‑year jitters. Industry groups and strategists at Goldman, Bank of America, and Citi warn tariffs may shave off ~1–2% EPS growth per 5pp increase in effective duty rates. While tariffs are on pause, that “pause” expires July 7th. We fully expect that pause to be extended into Q3, given the Administration has deals currently in progress. However, investors should potentially hedge against unforeseen problems later in the summer.

Weaker consumer spending: Our most significant concern for Q2-2025 earnings and the rest of the year is slowing economic growth, which will spill over into consumer spending. As discussed in “Consumer Spending Drives Earnings,” there is a high correlation between Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and earnings. To wit:

“One of the better measures for developing a framework for future earnings growth is personal consumption expenditures (PCE), since they comprise nearly 70% of the economic equation. The annual percentage change in forward earnings tracks the yearly percentage change in PCE fairly closely.”

Given the recent softness in the employment data and the downturn in PCE, the risk to earnings is rising.

Lastly, the downturn in energy and materials earnings directly reflects economic weakness. The Q2-2025 earnings for the energy sector declined by ~19%, while materials fell by ~12% year‑over‑year. The decline in those two sectors is essential given their reflection of economic activity.

However, on the optimistic side, the Technology and Communications companies (particularly given their weight in the index) are buoying corporate earnings. Ongoing strong investment in AI and capex, particularly within the “Magnificent 7,” is expected to report strong earnings and revenue growth. As such, their Q2 guidance and commentary will likely offset some of the risk of spillover from trade and consumer dynamics.

Positioning For Earnings Season

At RIA Advisors, here is how we are positioning ahead of Q2 earnings reports.

After the strong run in asset markets from the April lows, markets are technically back to more overbought levels, with sentiment returning to “extreme greed.” Those levels open the door to a higher level of “disappointment” in earnings announcements than would otherwise be the case.

As such, we are looking to rebalance portfolio risk by reducing risk in areas with the highest degree of “disappointment potential” and somewhat raising cash levels. This gives us a hedge against downside risk, and cash to buy earnings “over reactions” in structurally advantaged sectors.

Our primary focus will be to:

(The following is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. This is strictly for educations and informational purposes only and a disclosure of RIA’s positioning.)

  • Focus on structurally advantaged sectors: Stick with AI heavyweights like Microsoft, Nvidia, and Alphabet. They carry forward earnings momentum, and guidance around AI spending could prompt positive sentiment . Conversely, avoid high-beta cyclical stocks, which may underperform if tariffs spark volatility.

  • Tilt toward defensive, dividend‑paying stocks: As equity valuations remain elevated, despite slowing economic forecasts, adding exposure to low‑volatility and dividend‑generating segments, like consumer staples or utilities, can add ballast. Our primary portfolio includes companies like PG, BRK.B, RTX, and V.

  • Watch guidance tone, not just numbers: Companies may retract or express uncertainty. Last quarter, ~4% of S&P 500 firms withdrew forward EPS commentary due to tariff uncertainty. In Q2 calls, examine the economic forecast from cyclical, discretionary, and staple companies for warnings or downward momentum beyond base estimates.

  • Expect upside surprises, but remain realistic: Historically, 75–77% of S&P 500 firms top EPS expectations, due to the deep cuts of estimates going into earnings season. However, with consensus estimates already cut deeply, there is a high potential for a higher-than-normal “beat rate,” especially in tech (MSFT, NVDA), healthcare (ABBV, LLY), and communications (META, GOOG).

  • Retain domestic vs. international exposure: The powerhouse of earnings growth remains the U.S. versus the rest of the world. With Central Banks cutting rates globally to offset sluggish economic growth, the backdrop of U.S. earnings will remain attractive to investors globally. This is why the U.S. has massively outperformed international markets over the last 15 years, and it is unlikely to change soon, given the dominance of AI by U.S. companies.

Conclusion

Q2-2025 earnings season reflects a more cautious narrative: earnings growth is decelerating, estimates have been cut more sharply, and company guidance is likely to follow suit. Yet underlying fundamentals remain solid, especially in the technology, communication, and defensive segments. Historically, positive surprises tend to outpace negativity, offering upside potential if macro headwinds remain stable.

However, our primary concern remains the slowing growth trend in the economic data. That trend, combined with rising delinquency rates, rising defaults, and declining consumption, all suggest that monetary policy is too restrictive and the Federal Reserve is likely behind on cutting rates. As discussed recently:

“This raises the danger of a policy mismatch: If the Fed waits for inflation that doesn’t arrive, it may keep real interest rates excessively high for too long, just as it kept them too low following the pandemic. The consequences could be severe.”

Next week, as earnings season kicks into high gear, investors should emphasize quality, weigh defensive income options, remain alert to guidance tone, and consider hedged exposure in reports. A well‑balanced approach, with a tilt toward AI‑led growth balanced with conservative positioning, will align risk/reward ahead of potentially market-moving announcements.

Trade accordingly.

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/12/2025 - 10:30

Trump To Impose 30% Tariffs On Mexico, European Union

Trump To Impose 30% Tariffs On Mexico, European Union

President Trump on Saturday morning fired off two trade warning letters via Truth Social, threatening to impose 30% tariffs on all Mexican and European imports starting August 1. The warning to Mexico hinges on action to curb the flow of fentanyl and dismantle drug cartels, while the threat to Europe demands an end to long-standing trade imbalances driven by EU tariffs and non-tariff barriers. This caps off a week of letters sent to America's top trade partners, with tariff threats used as a negotiation tool by the Trump administration to seal deals.

"Despite our strong relationship, you will recall, the United States imposed Tariffs on Mexico to deal with our Nation's Fentanyl crisis, which is caused, in part, by Mexico's failure to stop the Cartels, who are made up of the most despicable people who ever walked the Earth, from pouring these drugs into our country," Trump said in the letter addressed to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo. 

He continued, "Mexico has been helping me secure the border, BUT, what Mexico has done, is not enough. Mexico still has not stopped the Cartels who are trying to turn all of North America into a Narco-Trafficking Playground." 

Here are the key points in the letter:

  • 30% tariff will apply to all Mexican imports unless action is taken.

  • Tariff waivers will be granted for companies that build or manufacture in the U.S.

  • If Mexico raises tariffs in retaliation, the U.S. will match them on top of the 30%.

  • Adjust tariffs if Mexico successfully confronts the cartels and halts fentanyl trafficking

Copy of the letter that was posted on Trump's Truth Social:

The second letter Trump was addressed to Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, in which he informed Brussels that he would impose a 30% tariff on all EU products starting August 1, unless long-standing trade imbalances—driven by EU tariffs and non-tariff barriers—are addressed.

"The European Union, despite having one of our largest Trade Deficits with you. Nevertheless, we have decided to move forward, but only with more balanced and fair TRADE," the president said. 

He emphasized:

  • The U.S. market is open and fair, but EU practices have created an unsustainable trade deficit.

  • The 30% tariff applies separately from any sectoral tariffs and will be higher for goods transshipped to avoid it.

  • No tariffs will be applied if EU companies manufacture within the U.S.

  • The EU must allow full market access to the U.S. or face higher tariffs.

  • Retaliatory EU tariffs will be met with additional levies.

Trump warned that this trade deficit with the EU is a "major threat to our Economy and, indeed, our National Security!" 

Copy of the letter that was posted on Trump's Truth Social:

This past week, the Trump administration sent out two dozen trade warning letters to countries.

Let's recap the week with the most important trade headlines:

In markets, crypto was the only asset class trading, with Bitcoin edging lower following the trade warning posts around 8:30 a.m. ET. Some selling pressure in BTC/USD had already emerged earlier, starting around 6:00 a.m. ET.

If no deals are reached by August 1, renewed trade tensions could roil global markets.

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/12/2025 - 09:55

Ford Recalling 850,000 Vehicles For Fuel Pump Failure

Ford Recalling 850,000 Vehicles For Fuel Pump Failure

Ford is recalling over 850,000 vehicles in the U.S. due to a faulty low-pressure fuel pump that could fail and cause engine stalls, increasing crash risk, according to AP.

The recall includes various recent Ford and Lincoln models, such as the Bronco, Explorer, F-150, Aviator, and Navigator, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

AP writes that starting July 14, Ford will notify affected owners about the issue, though a fix is still in development. A second notice will be sent once the repair is available, which will be free of charge.

Ford just launched its new “Zero-Zero-Zero” summer sales event to ease upfront vehicle costs amid rising interest rates and growing tariff pressures.

The campaign—starting July 8—offers zero down payment, 0% interest for 48 months, and no payments for 90 days on most Ford and Lincoln models.

This initiative follows the “From America, For America” employee pricing strategy, which helped boost Q2 sales (Ford up 14.2%, Lincoln up 31%).

The move comes as tariffs have begun to impact Ford’s pricing. Vehicles like the Maverick, Mustang Mach-E, and Bronco Sport—built in Mexico—are now subject to a 25% import tariff, prompting Ford to raise prices on those models. Additionally, tariff-related increases in parts costs could affect other vehicles across Ford’s lineup.

Recall we wrote weeks ago that tariffs would cost auto consumers an extra $2000 per vehicle. 

General Motors and Ford have projected tariff-related hits of $5 billion and $2.5 billion, respectively, and plan to offset some of it through price hikes. This could result in around 1 million fewer cars sold in the U.S. over the next three years. AlixPartners sees a rebound, projecting U.S. auto sales to hit 17 million by 2030.

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/12/2025 - 08:45

Turkey's Outlawed PKK Begins 'Symbolic' Disarmament By Burning Weapons

Turkey's Outlawed PKK Begins 'Symbolic' Disarmament By Burning Weapons

Via The Cradle

A group of fighters from the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) laid down their arms on Friday during a disarmament ceremony in Iraq’s northern Kurdistan region, coinciding with continued Turkish attacks on the organization despite months of a ceasefire between the historic rivals. 

Just 30 minutes into the ceremony, the Turkish army launched air attacks on villages in the Amediya district of Dohuk province in north Iraq. The small ceremony was held on Friday near the province of Sulaimaniya. Twenty to 30 PKK fighters destroyed their weapons in a symbolic gesture, rather than surrender them to authorities. 

Via X

Images on social media showed the militants placing their guns in a fire pit, ready to be lit. 

The group “comprised around 30 fighters who laid down weapons including AK-47s, PKM machine guns, and sniper rifles,” informed sources told Kurdish news outlet Rudaw.  

The fighters affirmed during the ceremony their commitment to democratic political engagement aimed at securing Kurdish rights in Turkey.

In a statement, the group of PKK fighters – identifying themselves as the Group for Peace and Democratic Society – said they disarmed to “ensure the practical success of ‘Peace and Democratic Society’ process, to wage our freedom, democracy and socialist struggle with methods of legal and democratic politics on the basis of enacting laws for democratic integration.”

They said their destruction of the arms was “a step of goodwill and determination.” Ankara welcomed the step, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan describing it as “totally ripping off and throwing away the bloody shackles that were put on our country’s legs.” He added that the move would benefit the region. 

In the weeks leading up to the ceremony, Turkish attacks continued to target Kurdish areas of northern Iraq, according to a war monitor.

The US-based Community Peacemaker Teams (CPT) said on Thursday that “Turkish military strikes and operations have remained steady – though increasingly concentrated in specific areas – even as a disarmament ceremony approaches this Friday.”

“Turkish military strikes have remained steady and concentrated – though notably, no civilian casualties have been reported – since their surge in May. In June, bombardments and attacks increased by just eight percent compared to the previous month but continue to exceed levels observed prior to the ceasefire,” CPT said. 

“Notably, 98 percent of strikes and shelling occurred within the Duhok governorate, specifically in the Amedi district, a stark contrast to previous years when Turkish offensives were more geographically dispersed,” it added. 

Between June 1 and June 30, at least 550 bombings and strikes were documented in the Iraqi Kurdistan region, the monitor went on to say.

The PKK has been engaged in a guerrilla campaign against Turkiye for decades. Its leader, Abdullah Ocalan, is currently serving a life sentence in prison on the Turkish island of Imrali. In February, Ocalan issued a call for the PKK to lay down its arms. 

The group has been holding talks on the matter with the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM) in Turkiye. It has demanded legal and political guarantees in exchange for disarming, including constitutional reforms and equal rights for Kurds in Turkiye. It is also hoping for an eventual release of its leader from Turkish prison.

Ocalan reiterated his call in a video message released on 9 July, declaring that the Kurdish militant group’s decades-long armed struggle against Turkiye has come to an end. On March 1, the PKK declared an immediate ceasefire in its insurgency against the Turkish state, in line with Ocalan’s call in February. 

The PKK is very closely linked to the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Syria, which earlier this year signed a deal with Damascus to integrate into the new Syrian military. The integration has yet to take place. Ankara has urged the SDF to quit “stalling” and integrate with Damascus’s forces immediately.

Tyler Durden Sat, 07/12/2025 - 08:10

Conservative Creators: Don’t Let The Liberal Entertainment Crisis Go To Waste

Conservative Creators: Don’t Let The Liberal Entertainment Crisis Go To Waste

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us

We’ve all heard the argument before – “Liberals are the ‘creatives’ in western culture and conservatives have no imagination”. And, if you only use venues like the Hollywood film industry or maybe the New York art and literature scenes as examples, then this claim might appear to have validity. After all, the vast majority of filmmakers, writers, actors and artists today are rabidly progressive. It’s hard to find a single conservative among them.

Of course, the argument falls apart when we look back to the artists and musical geniuses of the Renaissance, or the great writers and poets of the early industrial age. In fact, for centuries the creative world was dominated by conservative and Christian powerhouses. It wasn’t until the quiet leftist invasion of media starting in the 1940s (which was stalled by McCarthy) and the eventual takeover in the 1970s that “art” became the exclusive domain of progressives.

How did this happen? How did conservatives get pushed out of the creative world?

Well, they’re still around; thousands upon thousands of them. However, the art world and the realm of entertainment are largely dictated by corporate dollars. Wealthy benefactors used to PAY conservative artists and commissioned great works. Now, they don’t. Whoever gets the money gets the exposure, and liberal artists get the money. It’s not about merit, it’s about ideology and politics.

Try to be a new talent with openly conservative views in mainstream film, television, fiction writing, comic books, painting, music, etc. Watch how quickly you are added to the blacklist and how quickly you disappear regardless of how brilliant your work is. It’s not a conspiracy theory, it’s observable fact.

There are numerous case studies of conservatives in Hollywood being buried by the industry. In literature the progressives learned how to control the bottleneck – Nearly all literary agencies are run by leftists (and women), and if you can’t get representation for your book then it won’t get nationally published.

A common argument among leftists (or idiots) is that women simply read far more and so books that cater to female consumers get the green light. It’s the “free market” – Don’t you support the free market?

In reality, the woke takeover of literature came first. And, now that books are rarely written by men for men, male readers have no market to tap into. The problem has become so epidemic that a literary company in Britain called Conduit Books announced that they are going to focus on male writers for the foreseeable future. And guess what happened? Mobs of leftists and the corporate media attacked them, arguing that men had their time and now is the time for women to “have a voice”.

In other words, male writers (let alone male conservative writers) aren’t even allowed to have ONE company that supports their work.

As the Gamergate movement exposed, woke activists hijacked gaming by extorting companies with threats of cancellation. They then organized “consultation” groups (like Sweet Baby Inc.) that invaded the industry and injected woke narratives into every new product. Conservatives are persona non grata in the AAA game development space.

Comic books have been utterly destroyed by the political left. An army of feminists and LGBT activists now control every aspect of the comic industry and American comics no longer sell because of woke politics. Did the market die? No, customers simply moved on to the alternatives. Japanese Manga dominates the comic market today with sales that dwarf American comics. In 2021, total US comic sales hit $2.07 billion, with $1.47 billion of that being manga.

These are just a few examples of how leftists act as gatekeepers in creative markets. For decades they have dictated who gets exposure and who doesn’t. And you know whose fault it is? It’s ours.

For many years I have listened to conservatives dismiss pop culture as “kids stuff” and not important compared to politics. Meanwhile, woke saboteurs were slithering into every corner of the entertainment world and planting their degenerate notions into every movie, every show, every song, every book, everywhere you look their cultism is rampant. You can’t get away from it and we allowed this to happen because we weren’t paying attention.

Luckily, a counter-movement has formed and the vast effort to stop wokeness in media has been largely effective in organizing boycotts. In the past few years nearly every entertainment platform that produces woke material is dying.

In movies, production companies are forced to reduce or completely cut out woke messaging in order to draw an audience. The problem is, the leftists still stand guard at the gates. Conservatives still aren’t getting access to media markets, which means all we are going to get for years to come is progressive slop, or productions that avoid wokeness but remain mediocre.

My fear is that audiences will simply settle for mediocre as a replacement for woke; that people will throw up their hands and give up on quality in art and entertainment as long as they’re no longer bombarded with DEI. It basically means the the death of creativity in the west.

So what’s the solution?

It seems so obvious to me that it’s painful, but maybe conservative creators are so despondent that they’ve given up. The internet and social media offer immense opportunities for independent content creation, but this is not enough. Audiences and investors need to put cash and support behind the alternative content industry.

Just as great Christian artists were once given the ability to conjure historic works of grandeur because of commissions, there needs to be a movement to focus production and distribution back into conservative hands.

The crisis in liberal entertainment cannot be allowed to go to waste. Never before has the progressive media juggernaut been as weak as it has been in the last few years. Now is the time to take the culture back. Not necessarily by forcing conservative politics into movies and books, but by creating meaningful and powerful art again; art that removes the stains of wokeness.

Films and short form fictional content are incredibly cheap to make and distribute compared to 20 years ago. I have always loved the artform of film but when I started writing in the early 2000s the field was prohibitively expensive and digital cameras were in their infancy. Even making a short film could bankrupt the average twenty-something artist with a tight budget.

Today, you can get near Hollywood quality digital cameras, lighting, editing, sound, etc, for well under $10,000. Maybe half that price if you buy used. All you need is a good idea and the will to make it happen. Price is no longer a factor like it once was.

I will say, though, that conservative filmmakers need some kind of venue to tap into – Maybe a yearly short film contest or a screenplay competition. Someone needs to step up and provide an arena where conservative creators can compete for greater opportunities beyond some cash from YouTube.

In literature I suspect the crusade will be much more difficult, unless companies with weight and money step in to launch a conservative renaissance in fiction. Self publishing is definitely an option but reach without marketing is limited. The most successful creators will be those with a preexisting audience. A lot of brilliant writers will fall by the wayside because they don’t already have an online presence.

Indie video games are in the wild west phase and there are some incredible success stories out there.  As the technology becomes more accessible I suspect leftists will lose their hold on development.  It may take another few years, though.

I believe comic books is one area that is BEGGING for revitalization and new blood. As noted, the market is huge. American readers are hungry for good stories, they just aren’t finding them at Marvel and DC because of the woke takeover. No one wants to buy leftist drivel.

American comic creators like Eric July have proved that the industry can be saved. His libertarian/conservative “Rippaverse” project has garnered a lot of attention (and a lot of hate) for offering non-woke comic books and he has shown that there is a steady audience for this kind of content.

I’m adding my own limited contribution to the fight with my action/horror graphic novel ‘Mountain Hollow’ which is now in print. A story about a survivalist who fights a guerrilla war against an interdimensional evil. Here’s a promo video for my book:

Anyone interested in purchasing a copy can BUY ONE HERE.

I think most people accept the prevailing theory that the political left, with the help of NGOs and even governments, has steamrolled into the cultural zeitgeist with the goal of saturating our media with as much propaganda as possible. Perhaps they they thought we would be so overwhelmed that we would give up and embrace their ideology as the “new normal”.

However, I would suggest that this was only part of their plan. Their secondary goal was to deconstruct western pop-culture should they fail to control it. In other words, if they can’t have it, they would rather burn it all down to the ground so that no one else can have it. And I have to admit that they are winning when it comes to destroying what remains of our entertainment. The options today look bleak.

Stories and art are not simply about fantasy and escapism – They are the catalyst by which a civilization passes on its principles, its ideas, its dreams, its lessons and its morals. Leftists understand this all too well. For some reason conservatives are late to the party. There is still time to save our culture from being cast into the pit of despair.

We only require an organized effort that provides support to conservative art; a new Renaissance which resurrects the values of merit, talent, hard work and conscience.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/11/2025 - 23:05

These Are 2025's 'Most Livable' Cities

These Are 2025's 'Most Livable' Cities

Every year, The Economist ranks cities around the world on livability, based on factors including crime and conflict to public transportation and education.

This map, via Visual Capitalist's Kayla Zhu, shows the 10 most livable cities in the world, according to The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Global Liveability Index 2025.

The index ranks cities on over 30 factors across five categories to determine their overall livability. Factors include:

  • Stability: Prevalence of crime, terror, military conflict, civil unrest/conflict

  • Healthcare: Availability and quality of private and public healthcare, general healthcare indicators

  • Culture and environment: Humidity/temperature rating, cultural and sporting availability, social or religious restrictions

  • Education: Availability and quality of private education, public education indicators

  • Infrastructure: Quality of road network, public transport, international links, availability of good housing

What is the Most Livable City in the World?

Below, we show the 10 most livable cities in the world according to The Economist, and their livability scores.

Copenhagen was ranked the most livable city in the world, ending Vienna’s three-year streak at the top of the rankings.

Denmark’s capital city scored perfect 100s across stability, education, and infrastructure, with an overall score of 98.

Vienna and Zurich tied for second with scores of 97.1. Switzerland—which had two cities rank in the top 10 for livability—also ranked first as the top migration destination to live and work in for 2025.

Vienna saw its scores for stability drop dramatically in the wake of a bomb threat before a Taylor Swift concert (later cancelled), and a planned attack on a city train station in 2025.

Overall, cities in Western Europe and Asia-Pacific continue to dominate the top of the rankings.

Vancouver, Canada is now the only North American city in the top 10, after Calgary saw the biggest drop in ranking, falling from fifth in 2024 to 18th in 2025 due to declines in its healthcare scores.

The average score for livability in 2025 was 76.1 out of 100, the same as 2024. However, scores in the stability category have continue to decline amid widespread geopolitical tension and civil unrest around the world.

To compare this list with last year’s livability rankings, check out the 2024 graphic here.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/11/2025 - 22:40

China Reports Worst Producer Deflation In 2 Years Amid Ongoing Trade Uncertainty

China Reports Worst Producer Deflation In 2 Years Amid Ongoing Trade Uncertainty

Authored by Lily Zhou via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

China’s factory-gate prices in June saw the biggest fall in two years amid uncertainty in international trade and weak domestic demand.

A worker moves pieces of steel machinery at a manufacturing company in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China, on June 16, 2025. AFP via Getty Images

According to figures released on July 9 by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, the producer price index for industrial products in June fell by 3.6 percent compared with the same month in 2024—worse than a 3.3 percent drop in May, and the biggest annual decline since July 2023.

The month’s purchasing price index for industrial products fell by 4.3 percent year over year, bigger than the 3.6 percent drop in May, and the sharpest decline since August 2023.

According to Dong Lijuan, statistician at the National Bureau of Statistics, the producer price index deflation in June was driven by cheaper energy prices, uncertainties in international trade, and hot and wet weather that drove down the price of building materials.

Sectors that rely on exports faced more downward pressure in prices, she said.

“The prices of computers, communication equipment, and other electronic equipment in June dropped by 0.4 percent [compared to May], the prices of electrical machinery and equipment fell by 0.2 percent, and textile prices fell by 0.2 percent,” she said.

In annual terms, the prices of computers, communication equipment, and other electronic equipment fell by 2.3 percent.

China’s factory activity shrank for a third month in a row in June, albeit at a slower pace, with employment and new export orders still languishing.

“We expect demand to weaken later this year, as exports slow and the boost from fiscal support diminishes,” Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, said.

Market reaction to the data was cautious amid uncertainties in the trade war between the United States and other economies. China’s Shanghai Composite Index was up by 0.3 percent by the midday break, while Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index traded down by 0.7 percent.

As subdued domestic demand remains a drag on China’s economy, companies have resorted to price discounts to boost sales, prompting the authorities to urge an end to the auto industry’s bruising price wars.

Highlighting the tepid consumer market, Chinese e-commerce giants Alibaba and JD.com have pledged heavy subsidies over recent months to expand aggressively into fast deliveries.

Consumer prices rose by 0.1 percent compared with the same month in 2024, following four months of deflation.

“Consumer inflation is likely to remain near zero for the rest of the year, as structural adjustment continues slowly, with consumer demand weighed by the protracted property downturn and worries over the jobs market,” Duncan Wrigley, chief China economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said.

He also said that trade tensions between Washington and Beijing are likely to continue despite the recent framework agreement.

“More flare-ups are likely and cooling export growth will add to downward price pressure in manufactured goods sectors,” he said.

According to supply chain technology provider Descartes, U.S. container imports from China were about 639,300 20-foot equivalent units in June, slightly up (0.4 percent) from May, but a 28.3 percent decline from June 2024.

The company said it expects that “China’s share of U.S. imports may remain under pressure through the second half of 2025,” with the upcoming expirations of U.S. tariff pauses extended to Aug. 1 and the trade truce with China on Aug. 12, and with additional U.S. tariffs on transshipped goods via Vietnam.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/11/2025 - 22:15

"Now That Is A Coronal Hole. Whoa Momma." 

"Now That Is A Coronal Hole. Whoa Momma." 

Ben Davidson of Space Weather News issued a warning on X overnight about an Earth-facing coronal hole that could eject fast-moving solar wind toward Earth, potentially triggering elevated geomagnetic activity, including auroras and geomagnetic storms. The high-speed stream is expected to reach Earth within days.

"Now THAT is a coronal hole. Whoa momma," Davidson said, adding,"Excess magnitude/volcanic watch is in play now. Solar wind enhancement expected Saturday/Sunday/Monday."

Solarham, a solar storm monitoring website, warned, "The onset of a coronal hole stream was not expected until within the next few days." 

On Thursday, Solarham described the "Coronal Hole to Face Earth" that will begin impact Earth this weekend:

A large coronal hole will begin to face Earth this weekend. A solar wind stream flowing from this zone is expected to reach Earth beginning July 12th with the main influence by July 13/14. It is possible that a geomagnetic storm watch will be issued in the days ahead.

As of Friday morning, Solarham data shows all quiet across the Western Hemisphere. 

For context, disturbances in Earth's magnetosphere—triggered by solar activity such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs)—can impact the modern economy in multiple ways, including degrading satellite systems and GPS, disrupting power grids and high-frequency communications, and more.

A Carrington-class storm would be absolutely catastrophic for the world, potentially causing trillions of dollars in economic damage globally.

Can you guess which US power grid is most at risk? Find out here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/11/2025 - 21:50

'Global War on Terror' Is Over. Terror Won.

'Global War on Terror' Is Over. Terror Won.

Authored by Daniel McAdams via RPI,

On Sept. 16, 2001, five days after the attacks on New York and Washington, DC, President George W. Bush declared, “This crusade – this war on terrorism – is going to take a while. And the American people must be patient. I’m going to be patient. But I can assure the American people I am determined.”

Four days after that, President Bush declared the “war on terror” to be primarily against al-Qaeda. “Our war on terror begins with al Qaeda,” he said in an address to Congress and the nation, “but it does not end there. It will not end until every terrorist group of global reach has been found, stopped and defeated.”

He described the enemy thus:

This group and its leader — a person named Osama bin Laden — are linked to many other organizations in different countries, including the Egyptian Islamic Jihad and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan.  There are thousands of these terrorists in more than 60 countries.

Bush was correct in his assessment of the group.

One of those countries into which al-Qaeda jihadists implanted themselves was Syria, where from 2011 – with the support of the Obama Administration – they attempted to overthrow the secular leader, Bashar al-Assad, using terrorist tactics they had been well-trained in.

They soon changed their name – but not their stripes – and became the Al-Nusra Front, headed up by an experienced jihadist who fought against US troops in Iraq by the name of Abu Mohammad al-Jolani. His group was known for chopping off heads. Perhaps even American heads.

Last December Jolani’s jihadists – with support from the US, Turkey, and Israel – finally brought down the Assad government and quicker than you can say “Washington PR makeover” he clipped his beard, switched out his tactical military watch for a $90,000 Patek Philippe World Time Chronograph, and declared himself president.

The “civilized world” cheered the re-emergence of democracy in Syria!

At their first meeting earlier this year in Saudi Arabia, President Trump praised jihadist Jolani as “a young, attractive fellow” and “a tough guy, a fighter, with a very strong background. He has a lot of potential, he’s a real leader.”

This was a US-designated global terrorist with a $10 million bounty placed on his head by the US authorities. His “wanted” poster STILL remains on the X account of the US Embassy in Syria!

This week, President Trump “removed sanctions on Jolani’s Syria at (Israeli Prime Minister) Netanyahu’s request,” and just yesterday Secretary of State removed Jolani’s old al-Qaeda affiliate (which had gone from al-Nusra to HTS over the years) from the US terrorist list.

As one observer on X quipped:

The history of the GWOT (Global War on Terror) began in 2001 with the US invading Afghanistan to dig out Al Qaeda. It ends twenty-four years later with the US recognizing an AQ affiliate as the new ruler of Syria.

According to Brown University’s Cost of War Project, the “Global War on Terror” cost the American people at least eight trillion dollars. It also took the lives of perhaps a million people.

And what did we get for all this blood and treasure? In Afghanistan, the Taliban were after 20 years of US military action replaced by the Taliban, and in Syria a fierce opponent of al-Qaeda was replaced by…al-Qaeda!

As Jake Sullivan, then right hand to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, wrote to the Secretary in 2012, “al-Qaeda is on our side in Syria.” He wasn’t joking!

That was the shot…here’s the chaser: In the same week the United States removed sanctions on al-Qaeda ruled Syria, it placed sanctions on…UN Special Rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian territories Francesca Albanese!

Who is Albanese? She is the fearless defender of human life in a Gaza where it is slowly being extinguished by Israel with the backing (and weapons) of the US government.

In hitting UN human rights defender Albanese with sanctions, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio wrote:

Today I am imposing sanctions on UN Human Rights Council Special Rapporteur Francesca Albanese for her illegitimate and shameful efforts to prompt @IntlCrimCourt action against U.S. and Israeli officials, companies, and executives.

Albanese’s campaign of political and economic warfare against the United States and Israel will no longer be tolerated. We will always stand by our partners in their right to self-defense.

The United States will continue to take whatever actions we deem necessary to respond to lawfare and protect our sovereignty and that of our allies. (emphasis added)

What might those “whatever actions” be? Clearly it is a physical threat against Albanese for speaking out against a mass murder happening in real time, observable for all who wish to do so on our own computer screens.

So that is it. The “Global War on Terror” is over. Terrorists have been elevated by the US government to be heads of state and those who speak out against state terrorism are threatened with “whatever actions we deem necessary” to shut them up.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/11/2025 - 21:25

FBI's 'Raw' Epstein Prison Video Was Likely Doctored: Wired

FBI's 'Raw' Epstein Prison Video Was Likely Doctored: Wired

In an effort to quell longstanding theories surrounding the death of Jeffrey Epstein, the U.S. Department of Justice this week released nearly 11 hours of what it described as “full raw” surveillance footage from outside Epstein’s prison cell. Instead of ending speculation, the release has introduced new doubts.

According to an analysis conducted by WIRED in collaboration with independent video forensics experts, metadata embedded in the files shows the footage was not a direct export from the prison’s surveillance system. Rather, it appears to have been modified - likely using Adobe Premiere Pro, a professional video editing tool.

The file, investigators say, was assembled from at least two source clips, saved multiple times, exported, and then uploaded to the DOJ’s website, where it was labeled “raw” footage.

"If a lawyer brought me this file and asked if it was suitable for court, I’d say no. Go back to the source. Do it right," said Hany Farid, a professor at UC Berkeley whose research focuses on digital forensics and misinformation. "Do a direct export from the original system—no monkey business."

Farid also questioned why the video’s aspect ratio shifted during playback. "Why am I suddenly seeing a different aspect ratio?" he asked.

While experts emphasize that the metadata alone does not prove deceptive intent, they caution that the DOJ’s failure to explain the editing process adds to the cloud of suspicion that has long surrounded Epstein’s 2019 death in federal custody.

Earlier this week, the DOJ released a memo concluding that Epstein had 'no incriminating client list' and wasn't murdered later releasing the footage in question. 

According to Wired, "the video may have simply been processed for public release using available software, with no modifications beyond stitching together two clips. But the absence of a clear explanation for the processing of the file using professional editing software complicates the Justice Department’s narrative."

For months leading up to the joint memo the DOJ and FBI published Monday, attorney general Pam Bondi had promised the release of records related to Epstein, raising expectations that new, potentially incriminating details might surface about the disgraced financier’s death and his ties to powerful individuals. However, rather than revealing new information, the memo largely confirmed conclusions reached years earlier: that Epstein was found in a Manhattan prison cell on August 10, 2019, and died by suicide while awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges.

To support its conclusion, the FBI reviewed surveillance footage overlooking the common area of the Special Housing Unit (SHU) at the Metropolitan Correctional Center (MCC), where Epstein was held. The FBI enhanced the footage by adjusting contrast, color, and sharpness, and released both the enhanced and what it described as the “raw” version. Both versions of the video appear to have been processed using Premiere and include much of the same metadata. According to the FBI, anyone entering the area containing Epstein’s cell during the relevant time frame would have been visible on that camera. -Wired

According to the metadata from the "raw" file reveals that the video had been saved at least four times on May 23, 2025, by a Windows user named "MJCOLE~1." The footage references two source clips—“2025-05-22 21-12-48.mp4” and “2025-05-22 16-35-21.mp4” - and Premiere project files, indicating that it was a composite video.

One media forensics expert, who reviewed the metadata and asked not to be named, told Wired “It looks suspicious - but not as suspicious as the DOJ refusing to answer basic questions about it.”

The Department’s handling of the footage has also drawn criticism in light of previous issues at MCC. According to a 2023 report from the DOJ’s Office of the Inspector General, starting on July 29, 2019 - less than two weeks before Epstein’s death - around half of MCC’s 150 analog surveillance cameras stopped recording due to a technical error. Repairs scheduled for the night of August 9 were not carried out because the technician lacked an escort.

Only two cameras were operational in the SHU area at the time Epstein was found hanged: one near the entrance to the 10 South Unit and one by a ninth-floor elevator bay. Neither covered Epstein’s cell door.

What's more there was a notable gap in the recording: one minute of footage, from 11:58:58 p.m. to 12:00:00 a.m., is missing. The recording resumes immediately afterward.

At a press conference Tuesday, Attorney General Pam Bondi attributed the missing minute to a daily system cycle, claiming that one minute is missing from every night’s recording.

For months, Bondi had promised that the DOJ would release records that could shed light on Epstein’s death. But the new video and memo “largely confirmed conclusions reached years earlier,” WIRED noted, leaving many observers unsatisfied.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/11/2025 - 21:00

Cambridge Researchers Find Gut Bacteria Could Help Remove 'Forever Chemicals' From Body

Cambridge Researchers Find Gut Bacteria Could Help Remove 'Forever Chemicals' From Body

Authored by George Citroner via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Researchers have found that nine species of gut bacteria can help detoxify the body from forever chemicals, rapidly absorbing PFAS linked to cancer and other serious illnesses.

Kateryna Kon/Shutterstock

“This uncovers a new beneficial role of gut bacteria for the human health—to help removing toxic PFAS from our body,” senior study author Kiran Patil, a member of the MRC Toxicology Unit, University of Cambridge, told The Epoch Times.

How Bacteria Work

The Cambridge University study, published in the journal Nature Microbiology, identified nine bacterial species that can absorb up to 75 percent of toxic PFAS—per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances—from their surroundings.

PFAS are synthetic chemicals used in thousands of consumer products, from nonstick pans and waterproof clothing to cosmetics and food packaging. Dubbed “forever chemicals” because they resist breaking down in the environment, PFAS accumulate in human bodies and have been linked to various cancers, liver damage, and immune system disorders.

Currently, there are no approved treatments to remove PFAS from the human body, making this discovery potentially significant for public health.

The research team identified nine bacterial species—including six in the Bacteroides family, Odoribacter splanchnicus, Parabacteroides distasonis, and Parabacteroides merdae—that can absorb two common types of PFAS: perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA).

When these bacteria were introduced into mice, they quickly absorbed the chemicals. When they were excreted through the gut, the forever chemicals were removed with them in waste. Within minutes of exposure, the bacteria absorbed between 25 and 74 percent of PFAS chemicals at various concentration levels.

The researchers believe the way bacteria collect PFAS into protective clumps inside their cells is a survival mechanism that prevents the chemicals from causing cellular damage.

As the mice were exposed to increasing PFAS levels, the bacteria kept removing a steady percentage of the toxins, suggesting they could act as a natural filter in the gut.

Treatment Potential

The effectiveness of this approach depends on the specific type of PFAS compound, Patil said.

Short-chain PFAS leave the body quickly through urine. However, long-chain PFAS stay in the body for years and are mostly removed through feces. Therefore, using bacteria works best for PFAS compounds that are primarily eliminated through fecal excretion, according to Patil.

The bacteria proved effective even at very low exposure levels similar to those found in European and U.S. water samples, suggesting potential real-world applications.

The researchers plan to develop probiotic supplements that could boost these helpful bacteria, offering a new way to reduce PFAS levels in humans. However, while promising, the results have not yet been tested directly in humans.

There are always unknown factors between lab studies on mice and real-world applications for humans, Bryan Quoc Le, a food scientist and founder of and principal food consultant at Mendocino Food Consulting, who was not involved in the study, told The Epoch Times.

“Despite this,” he said, “the study did take a more comprehensive approach, such as using diverse microbial populations that are realistic for humans, and testing with different types of PFAS.”

However, he also noted the main challenges with a study like this include not knowing how things change in the long term, how these selected bacteria survive in different microbiomes with different diets and health conditions, and whether the same level of PFAS uptake would occur consistently and reliably.

“Needless to say, this area of research is still developing, so nothing is conclusive for human applicability yet, but it does suggest that further research would be worthwhile,” Le continued.

Safety Considerations

Medical experts urge caution despite the findings. Dr. Joseph Mercola, board-certified family medicine osteopathic physician, not involved in the study, emphasized the importance of careful implementation when introducing new bacterial strains into the human gut.

While the bacteria used in the study came from species already found in healthy humans, even familiar microbes can act differently depending on our overall gut balance, immune system, and existing health conditions, he told The Epoch Times.

“The good news is that these species aren’t exotic imports; they’re already natural residents in many people,” he said. “Still, scaling up their population through supplements or engineered probiotics could throw off your microbial balance if done recklessly.”

Dr. Kham Ali, an emergency medicine physician at Northwell Health in New York and not involved in the study, warned that adding bacteria to our microbiome that store toxic PFAS could have “unintended consequences,” such as disrupting other beneficial bacteria or affecting how the body processes food and medicine.

“We’d need long-term human studies to understand the safety of such interventions,” he told The Epoch Times.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/11/2025 - 20:35

Goldman Sees Housing Affordability Relief Ahead - Here's The Timeline

Goldman Sees Housing Affordability Relief Ahead - Here's The Timeline

Housing affordability is at its worst in decades, but a new Goldman report suggests some of the most severe pressures may begin to ease, offering modest relief in the years ahead. That's welcome news for prospective homebuyers who've been priced out by soaring home values and the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hiking cycle. 

"We are lowering our forecasts for U.S. home price appreciation over the next two years," analyst Vinay Viswanathan wrote in a note to clients. He cut the firm's national home price appreciation (HPA) forecast from 3.2% to .5% in 2025, and from 1.9% to 1.2% in 2026. 

Viswanathan outlined three specific drivers that underpinned his decision to revise the HPA forecast down:

  • First and foremost, recent home price index data has deteriorated, likely reflecting a drop in demand. Case-Shiller, FHFA, and Zillow indices all gauged negative sequential HPA in March, April, and, based on Zillow's higher frequency estimates, May (Exhibit 2). Though some of the weakness can likely be attributed to the acute tariff concerns earlier in the year (which equity prices and, to a lesser extent, consumer sentiment suggest are subsiding), the decline in May consumer spending is evidence that an uncertain growth environment is influencing household financial behavior.

  • Second, the lack of supply that previously bolstered strong HPA is gradually recovering. While most metrics suggest that aggregate supply is still far from overwhelming demand, for-sale inventory of existing homes is approaching pre-COVID levels while for-sale inventory of newly constructed homes is at levels last seen in 2009.

  • Third, we see only limited scope for mortgage rates to decline in a softer growth environment, and our base case is for mortgage rates to decline by only 20-25 bp through the end of 2026. We do not see the pullback in immigration as a major risk for single-family HPA given the likely low headship rate for the humanitarian/undocumented immigrants most affected, but there could be a larger impact on multifamily rents.

The analyst emphasized that this does not signal a significant downturn in prices, writing: "...but meaningful national home price declines remain unlikely."

What caught our attention in the 33-page report was the section outlining modest affordability relief for prospective homebuyers. This is especially important for the folks who've been sidelined in recent years because of higher prices and elevated rates. 

"Mortgage rates will likely grind lower," Viswanathan wrote in the report, with the 30-year conforming mortgage rate forecasted to end the year at 6.5%. 

Viswanathan continued, "Alongside a downtick in mortgage rates, the growing gap between income growth and HPA should help slightly improve housing affordability, albeit remaining historically poor..." 

How many young people are still on the sidelines? A lot....

According to Census Bureau data, about a third of all 18- to 34-year-olds are still living in their parents' basements or attics.

And this.

Real estate agents and mortgage originators are praying for a new Fed chief who'll slash rates and bring life back into an industry crushed by Fed Chair Powell.

More here from Goldman's Research team available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/11/2025 - 20:10

US Charges Chinese Man Accused Of Hacking Into Universities to Steal COVID-19 Research

US Charges Chinese Man Accused Of Hacking Into Universities to Steal COVID-19 Research

Authored by Frank Fang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Department of Justice (DOJ) announced charges on July 8 against a Chinese national taken into custody in Italy at the behest of Washington, and accused him of hacking into several U.S. universities to steal COVID-19 research at the direction of China’s main intelligence agency.

The Department of Justice (DOJ) in Washington on March 10, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

Xu Zewei, 33, was arrested in Milan, Italy, on July 3 by Italian law enforcement officials and FBI agents as he departed a plane from China. Xu and another Chinese national, Zhang Yu, 44, who remains at large, are charged in a nine-count indictment unsealed in the Southern District of Texas on Tuesday for their alleged involvement in computer intrusions between February 2020 and June 2021.

According to the indictment, Xu was a general manager at a Chinese company called Shanghai Powerock Network, which allegedly conducted hacking operations at the direction of the Shanghai State Security Bureau (SSSB) under China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS).

The DOJ said that Xu’s case exemplifies the Chinese regime’s use of a vast network of private companies and contractors in China to carry out hacking and information theft in a manner that concealed Beijing’s involvement.

“The indictment alleges that Xu was hacking and stealing crucial COVID-19 research at the behest of the Chinese government while that same government was simultaneously withholding information about the virus and its origins,” Nicholas Ganjei, U.S. attorney for the Southern District of Texas, said in a statement.

“The Southern District of Texas has been waiting years to bring Xu to justice and that day is nearly at hand. As this case shows, even if it takes years, we will track hackers down and make them answer for their crimes. The United States does not forget.”

The CIA, FBI, and Energy Department have determined that the COVID-19 pandemic likely originated from a laboratory in China, an assessment that Beijing has dismissed. Chinese authorities initially downplayed the severity of the outbreak for several weeks before it escalated into a pandemic.

The FBI’s Houston Field Office, which is investigating the case, said that Xu is allegedly “one of the first hackers linked to Chinese intelligence services to be captured by the FBI,” according to a post on social media platform X on July 8.

“Our investigation revealed that the PRC government will stop at nothing to steal from America. They have no shame in their actions, and no respect for international laws,” the Houston Field Office added in a separate X post. “Their only regret is that their criminal conduct is now unmasked and laid bare for the world to see.”

Hacking

Xu and his coconspirators are accused of hacking the networks of several U.S.-based universities, as well as the email accounts of immunologists and virologists conducting research into COVID-19 vaccines, treatment, and testing.

Prosecutors did not name the universities. According to the indictment, two universities are based in the Southern District of Texas, identified only as “UNIVERSITY 1” and “UNIVERSITY 3,” and the third, identified only as “UNIVERSITY 2,” is located in North Carolina. An unnamed law firm, with offices in the United States and elsewhere, was also targeted.

Xu allegedly compromised the network of “UNIVERSITY 1” on Feb. 19, 2020, according to prosecutors. Three days later, an SSSB officer directed Xu to target and access certain email accounts belonging to the university’s virologists and immunologists. According to the indictment, Xu informed the officer that he had “acquired the contents of the mailboxes” days later.

Xu and Zhang are also accused of being part of a China-sponsored hacking group called Hafnium, which garnered global attention in 2021 after Microsoft identified the group for exploiting the vulnerabilities in its Exchange Server email program.

“Through HAFNIUM, the CCP targeted over 60,000 U.S. entities, successfully victimizing more than 12,700 in order to steal sensitive information,” Brett Leatherman, assistant director of the FBI’s cyber division, said in a statement.

Xu and his coconspirators began exploiting the Exchange Server vulnerabilities in late 2020, prosecutors said. According to the indictment, Xu confirmed to Zhang that he had compromised the computer network of “UNIVERSITY 3” on Jan. 30, 2021, after the coconspirators breached the school’s computers running the Exchange Server and installed web shells on them to enable remote administration.

Using similar techniques associated with the Exchange Server, Xu and his coconspirators gained access to the law firm’s computer and used keywords such as “HongKong” and “MSS” to look for information regarding specific U.S. policymakers and government agencies.

The charges Xu faces include wire fraud, aggravated identity theft, and conspiracy to cause damage to and obtain information by unauthorized access to protected computers. He faces up to 20 years in prison for the wire fraud charges alone.

On Tuesday, Xu’s lawyer said that his client is a victim of mistaken identity, given that his surname is common in China, and his cellphone had been stolen since 2020.

Xu appeared before an appeals court in Milan and opposed extradition to the United States.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/11/2025 - 19:45

Forced Labor, Human Trafficking? Illegal Alien Kids Rescued After ICE Raids Industrial Pot Farm In Newsom's California

Forced Labor, Human Trafficking? Illegal Alien Kids Rescued After ICE Raids Industrial Pot Farm In Newsom's California

California Gov. Gavin Newsom wrote on X, "Kids running from tear gas, crying on the phone because their mother was just taken from the fields." 

"Kids running from tear gas." Think about that for a second… Why were there children at state-licensed, industrialized commercial marijuana farms in Southern California's agricultural zones?

That's a very good question — and perhaps protesting ICE seems the most plausible explanation. But one thing is sure: CBP Commissioner Rodney Scott revealed that federal agents rescued children from what appears to be forced labor conditions on industrial-sized marijuana farms.

"10 juveniles were found at this marijuana facility - all illegal aliens, 8 of them unaccompanied. It's  now under investigation for child labor violations," Scott revealed on X.

He asked: "California, are you ready to partner with us to stop child exploitation?" 

ICE agents on Thursday targeted two locations by Glass House Farms — one in the Santa Barbara County town of Carpinteria, about 90 miles northwest of Los Angeles, and another in the Ventura County community of Camarillo, about 50 miles from the metro area controlled by a far-left regime — resulted in the rescue of what could be illegal alien childeren exploited by labor mules.

Homeland Security Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin wrote on X that federal law enforcement rescued the children from what appears to be "potential exploitation, forced labor, and human trafficking." She said agents were met by "500+ rioters," one of whom opened fire on law enforcement.

X users were horrified Thursday night when an anti-ICE protester opened fire on federal law enforcement — a disturbing sign that low-intensity skirmishes are escalating into armed confrontations. This comes as the Democratic Party's leftist radicals continue to promote dangerous anti-ICE rhetoric, putting federal agents directly in harm's way.

President Trump and Border Czar Tom Homan have been vocal about the "missing 300,000 migrant children" reportedly somewhere in the U.S., a consequence of the Biden-Harris regime's deliberate border invasion that only resulted in the exploitation of some migrants — whether through forced labor or sex trafficking. Shame on Democrats..

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/11/2025 - 19:20

Massive Rare Earths Elements Deposit Confirmed In Wyoming

Massive Rare Earths Elements Deposit Confirmed In Wyoming

By John Paul Hamsptead of FreightWaves

In a groundbreaking moment for the American mining industry, the Fluor Corporation has confirmed the feasibility of large rare earth element deposits at Ramaco Resources’ Brook Mine in Wyoming. This announcement marks a significant step towards redefining the United States’ position in the critical minerals market. The confirmation by Fluor not only solidifies the economic potential of the Brook Mine but also positions Ramaco Resources as a key player in reducing the country’s dependency on foreign sources of rare earth elements.

Ramaco Resources, initially known for its operations as a metallurgical coal miner, was thrust into the spotlight with this unexpected discovery. The company, headquartered in Lexington, Kentucky, had been primarily focused on coal mining in Appalachia. The Brook Mine project represents a strategic pivot for Ramaco, leveraging its mining expertise to tap into the lucrative rare earth element market.

According to the Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) conducted by Fluor Corporation, the rare earth deposits at Brook Mine are not only abundant but also economically viable. The PEA outlines a robust financial outlook, with a net present value (NPV) of $1.197 billion at an 8% discount rate and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 38% pre-tax. The report projects that the mine will produce 1,242 tons annually of oxides, including high-value minerals such as dysprosium, neodymium, and scandium, which are critical to various advanced technologies. Specifically, dysprosium and neodymium have unusual magnetic properties that make them perfect for high-performance magnets in electric vehicles and various electronics, while scandium’s most important applications involve its use as an alloy for aluminum.

The economic significance of these discoveries cannot be overstated. Rare earth elements are integral to modern technology, playing a crucial role in the manufacturing of everything from electric vehicles and wind turbines to sophisticated military systems. Historically, the United States has relied heavily on imports, particularly from China, to meet its demand for these minerals. The Brook Mine’s potential to support 3-5% of the U.S.’s total permanent magnet demand is a crucial development in shifting the nation’s supply chain dynamics.

Aside from economic viability, the strategic implications are profound. Rare earth elements have long been a strategic lever for China, which controls roughly 85% of global production. China’s dominance in the market has allowed it to wield significant influence, at times restricting exports as a tool in trade negotiations. This dependency has underscored the urgency for the U.S. to establish a secure, domestic supply of these critical materials.

Ramaco’s leadership has recognized the strategic and national security dimensions of their project. Randall Atkins, the Chairman and CEO of Ramaco Resources, emphasized the importance of the Brook Mine discovery not only for the company but also for the nation. With plans to develop processing facilities capable of handling these rare earth elements domestically, Ramaco aims to foster a vertically integrated supply chain, addressing both extraction and processing within the United States.

The transition from a coal-centric operation to a rare earth element powerhouse reflects broader shifts in the global energy landscape. As the demand for cleaner, sustainable energy solutions grows, the need for rare earth elements will only increase. The Brook Mine discovery positions Ramaco at the forefront of this evolution, offering significant economic rewards while contributing to national security.

As Ramaco Resources continues to develop the Brook Mine, the focus will be on optimizing extraction processes and scaling up operations to meet projected demand. The backing from Fluor Corporation, an internationally renowned engineering firm, provides additional credibility and support to Ramaco’s ambitious plans.

The discovery and subsequent validation of rare earth elements at the Brook Mine is a landmark event for Ramaco Resources and American industry at large. By establishing a domestic supply chain for these essential materials, the United States not only reduces its reliance on foreign sources but also strengthens its strategic autonomy.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/11/2025 - 18:55

Even 190% Tariffs Can't Break Our Addiction To China's Cheap Labor

Even 190% Tariffs Can't Break Our Addiction To China's Cheap Labor

Despite falling headline numbers—China’s share of U.S. imports dropped to 13% in 2024 from nearly 22% in 2017—America’s reliance on Chinese goods remains deeper than it seems, according to Bloomberg. 

A new paper by researchers from the World Bank and IMF estimates the real figure is closer to 16% when accounting for transshipments through third countries and de minimis shipments under $800 that bypass duties.

One major reason: China’s unmatched manufacturing capability. Businesses, even those hit hard by tariffs, are staying put. Pashion Footwear CEO Haley Pavone, facing an $80,000 tariff in April, still sticks with her Chinese supplier. She considered alternatives but found the upfront costs too high and skilled labor lacking elsewhere.

“No one is as optimized as China,” said Pavone, whose shoes require engineering precision.

Bloomberg writes that Trump-era tariffs, aimed at reducing reliance on China, may have limited impact—or even backfire. Some Southeast Asian nations now face steeper reciprocal tariffs, making them less attractive alternatives for manufacturers.

Meanwhile, new research from the Kiel Institute warns that trade talks shouldn’t overlook services. In 2023, the U.S. ran a €148 billion ($173B) services trade surplus with the EU—nearly three-quarters the size of its goods trade deficit.

Still, U.S. and EU data diverge sharply: “The EU can go for a carrot-and-stick approach with respect to services trade,” researchers suggest, promoting digital access while tightening data rules or introducing a digital services tax.

Last month, President Trump said Chinese leader Xi Jinping was "extremely hard" to make a deal with just days after the president accused Beijing of violating an agreement to roll back tariffs and trade restrictions.

This came after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that U.S.-China trade talks were "a bit stalled." 

As of July 2025, the U.S. and China are in a temporary tariff truce, with reduced rates (30% U.S., 10% China) set to expire August 12. Talks are ongoing, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio meeting Chinese officials this week, though tensions remain high. Broader U.S. tariff threats on other countries have been delayed to August 1 to allow more negotiation time.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/11/2025 - 18:30

RFK Jr. Bans Illegal Immigrants From Government-Funded Programs

RFK Jr. Bans Illegal Immigrants From Government-Funded Programs

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is rescinding a 1998 interpretation of a law that allowed illegal immigrants to access certain government-funded programs, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) said on July 10.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. testifies on Capitol Hill on May 14, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

The health secretary is rescinding the interpretation of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA), a law that said illegal immigrants cannot obtain “federal public benefits.”

The 1998 interpretation by the HHS said the law’s definition of benefits “does not provide sufficient guidance for benefit providers” and that HHS was stepping in “to facilitate compliance” with a requirement in the law for providers to verify a person’s qualifications for benefits.

It said that certain programs, including Head Start, which provides child care for lower-income families, were accessible to illegal immigrants.

That interpretation improperly narrowed the scope of the law, letting illegal immigrants access programs that lawmakers intended only for Americans and qualified immigrants, such as immigrants granted asylum, HHS said on Thursday.

“For too long, the government has diverted hardworking Americans’ tax dollars to incentivize illegal immigration,” Kennedy said. “Today’s action changes that—it restores integrity to federal social programs, enforces the rule of law, and protects vital resources for the American people.”

The updated policy applies the definition of federal public benefit in the law.

The statute defines the benefits as ‘“any grant, contract, loan, professional license, or commercial license” provided to an individual, as well as “any retirement, welfare, health, disability, public or assisted housing, postsecondary education, food assistance, unemployment benefit, or any other similar benefit for which payments or assistance are provided to an individual, household, or family eligibility unit.”

Head Start is among the programs included in the updated and expanded list of classified “Federal public benefits” under the PRWORA, HHS said on Wednesday.

In addition to Head Start, HHS is including about a dozen other programs that were previously excluded. Among them are the Community Services Block Grant, the Projects for Assistance in Transition from Homelessness Grant Program, and the Title X Family Planning Program.

HHS cited its change as stemming from a February executive order from President Donald Trump, which directed officials to identify government-funded programs that “currently permit illegal aliens to obtain any cash or non-cash public benefit” and to then align those programs with the PRWORA.

“Title IV of the PRWORA states that it is national policy that ‘aliens within the Nation’s borders not depend on public resources to meet their needs,’ and that ‘it is a compelling government interest to remove the incentive for illegal immigration provided by the availability of public benefits.’ But in the decades since the passage of the PRWORA, numerous administrations have acted to undermine the principles and limitations directed by the Congress through that law,” Trump wrote at the time.

A notice on the HHS update said people have 30 days after it is formally published to submit comments. The notice has not yet been formally published.

HHS said in the notice that it would apply the updated interpretation immediately because “any delay would be contrary to the public interest and fail to address the ongoing emergency at the Southern Border of the United States.”

The Department of Education on Thursday said it was rescinding the 1998 interpretation of the PRWORA that allowed illegal immigrants to access federal education benefits, while the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, part of HHS, previously said it would increase oversight to make sure states did not pay for health care for illegal immigrants, citing Trump’s order and the PRWORA.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/11/2025 - 18:05

Nearly 5,000 Haitians Killed In 9 Months As Gang Violence Spreads Beyond Capital

Nearly 5,000 Haitians Killed In 9 Months As Gang Violence Spreads Beyond Capital

The United Nations in a fresh report issued Friday is urging international support for Haiti, amid crippling gang violence has claimed 4,864 lives between October and June.

In this nine month period, over 20% of these deaths occurred in the Centre and Artibonite areas, signaling that violence is extending well beyond Port-au-Prince into surrounding regions.

File image via University of Miami

"The spread of gang control poses a serious threat of escalating violence and fueling cross-border trafficking of weapons and people," the report warns

Gangs are believed to be expanding their influence in these areas as part of a broader effort to control critical routes linking the capital to northern Haiti and the Dominican Republic border, to extract payments.

One key element of the UN report is the call for outside nations to tighten regulations on firearm sales to Haiti and to continue strong support for the Kenya-led security mission aimed at bolstering the country's police force - an initiative that Washington backed.

"Human rights violations are worsening outside Port-au-Prince in regions where the State has little or no presence," Ulrika Richardson, the UN’s resident coordinator in Haiti, has said.

Al Jazeera has for example, documented one such major instance of violence which occurred outside the capital:

One instance the UN chronicles from March involved the police interception of a minibus driving from the city of Gonaives to Port-au-Prince. Officers allegedly found three firearms and 10,488 cartridges inside the bus, a fact which sparked concern and uproar among residents nearby.

“Enraged, members of the local population who witnessed the scene lynched to death, using stones, sticks, and machetes, two individuals: the driver and another man present in the vehicle,” the report said.

Haiti has long been a failed state crisis which at times enters in an out of mainstream media coverage and public awareness.

But it's a nightmare political issue for any US administration, and the US has long ago sought to wash its hands of direct involvement there, after several failed and controversial UN 'boots on the ground' missions there.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/11/2025 - 17:40

El Salvador Recalls Ambassador To Mexico Over Drug Plane Allegations

El Salvador Recalls Ambassador To Mexico Over Drug Plane Allegations

Authored by Melanie Sun via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele said on July 9 that he was recalling El Salvador’s ambassador to Mexico for consultations after Mexico’s security chief claimed that a plane allegedly carrying cocaine had originated in El Salvador.

Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele speaks during a news conference in San Salvador, El Salvador, on Feb. 4, 2024. Jose Luis Gonzalez/Reuters

In a social media post, Bukele called the accusation false and urged Mexico to clarify and correct comments by Security Minister Omar Garcia Harfuch, who said during a press conference that the July 3 flight had come from El Salvador before it was intercepted in Colima, Mexico.

Bukele shared an image of the flight path and said tracking data showed the plane never entered Salvadoran airspace.

The president said Costa Rica reported a suspicious radar trace northwest of its territory on July 3.

“It was Costa Rica that activated the regional alert through APAN, a Central American air security network,” Bukele said.

“According to its own report, the aircraft’s trace entered Costa Rican airspace, briefly disappeared from radar, and then reappeared as it exited toward the Pacific. Our radars did not register any aerial contact within our airspace ... Their report is clear: the aircraft flew over the Pacific Ocean and never entered Salvadoran territory.”

Bukele also criticized the Mexican government for not making public that three Mexican men were arrested over the flight.

“El Salvador does not shield criminals nor tolerate drug trafficking. We didn’t before, and we won’t now,” he said. “Nor will we allow attempts to involve us in operations that are neither our responsibility nor within our jurisdiction.”

Mexican authorities previously said three people were onboard the flight. They were arrested in Colima after 940 lb (427 kg) of cocaine was allegedly seized from the plane after landing.

Within hours of the post, Garcia Harfuch responded to Bukele on the social media platform X, saying that Mexican authorities first detected the plane about 200 km (120 miles) south of San Salvador, after which it ordered the military to intercept the suspicious flight. The map he posted also showed the plane’s route, although incomplete, over the Pacific Ocean.

Garcia Harfuch acknowledged that the men were Mexican and said they were facing criminal charges.

“We reiterate our respect and appreciation for the people of El Salvador,” he added.

Bukele responded to Garcia Harfuch’s post, saying that while the information he shared was factual, it failed to mention that there is no indication the aircraft originated in El Salvador.

“On the contrary, it was neither a Salvadoran aircraft nor did it have a Salvadoran crew,” he said in a reply to Garcia Harfuch’s post.

“We are willing to grant the benefit of the doubt and understand that what was said during the press conference may have been a misunderstanding, but we expect a more accurate clarification. It must be absolutely clear that there is not the slightest indication that the aircraft departed from our country, nor that anyone in El Salvador is linked to that drug shipment.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/11/2025 - 17:15

No One Believes...

No One Believes...

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

Flux Rules

"We're trapped in a structure. We named the Structure 'Jeffrey Epstein'."

- Eric Weinstein

No one in America - not even the most deranged, spike-faced, pink-haired transtifas - believes the latest Epstein story as played out by Mr. Trump and AG Bondi in this week’s cabinet parlay: nuthin to see, just a bunch of pointless child porn, fuggeddabowdit. . .

But stay! Much is moving, flowing unseen. The world is yugely in flux, large events in human affairs are in motion, many things are breaking, rotating, dissolving and re-forming, while others wind into giant hairballs. . . so many players acting as though they live in one great hall of mirrors, and treachery abides at every turn. Nobody seems to be actually managing any of it, though there is plenty of pretense, jockeying, staging. The public’s anger and anxiety rise in tandem.

One thing about Epstein is likely certain: it was an intel operation. And one thing is probable: it was a joint operation between the CIA, Israel’s Mossad, and the UK’s MI6. The object: to get as many political poohbahs on-the-hook for disgraceful behavior of the lowest kind and blackmail-able. Under the thumb. Theories and suppositions abound.

If Mr. Trump was in on the Epstein sex shenanigans, as Elon blurted this week, why did the Democratic Party not go after him for it in three election campaigns (and all the many months in between)? Well, not to put too fine a point on it, Elon appears to be losing his shit. His CEO at “X” bailed on him this week. His A-I app, Grok, started spouting Hitler gags, and his empire of world-beating genius is tottering on a broken business model.

You can write all that Elon stuff off as a sideshow for now — wildly grotesque as it may be. But what is actually going on in the three rings of this circus?

Flux in the Middle East is one.

Whatever else the “Twelve Day War” was about, it’s the end of Israel threatening to bomb Iran’s nuke program out of existence. We’ve done that favor for them, or pretended to, as some are saying, kabukied it out. So, Israel, shut up about that for now . . . is the policy.

One story is that the actual Epstein material, whatever still exists, that is, which might reside in multiple locations, is so destructive to the architecture of global leadership that it must be squelched for the sake of majorly realigning forces, tensions, and polities across the Middle East, namely, the Abraham Accords. Getting all that lined up is more important to Mr. Trump for the moment than defenestrating the various perverts-in-office around Western Civ. It just is. . . so. . . gotta lump it.

Let’s surmise that the president has learned a lot about the intel hall of mirrors over the past decade, but especially lately, in his second term, from DNI Tulsi Gabbard, who has access to every document in the bottomless pit of the intel archives. The President knows he is not exactly in control of his intel “community.” And he aims to do something about it. You could make the case that the so-called “community” is just a giant criminal syndicate engaged in the most nefarious activities ongoing in this world of sin: human trafficking, drugs, money-laundering, weapons, every off-the-book turpitude you could imagine. Nor is John Ratcliffe exactly in control of his own agency, though he can utilize some of its services. . . but more about that later.

Forget about Bondi’s gaffe. She is just following orders, as are Messrs. Patel and Bongino, standing down, good soldiers, and only on the Epstein business. You can’t even rule out the possibility that Jeffrey Epstein is not dead. Was it suicide? Or an escape? Shall we say, a rendition to parts unknown? I would not assert that, just proffer it as a possibility, since the events of that night in the Manhattan federal lockup were so astoundingly sketchy — the sleepy guards, the broken CC cameras, the missing minute in the one camera recording that worked, the suicide-proofed jail cell. . . . But, then, the autopsy reports. . . performed upon. . . whom, exactly. . . ?

There is parallel matter of Ukraine to consider. Mr. Trump is yugely frustrated by his inability to put a quick end to it, to make that golden deal with Russia. The Ukraine War is the globalists desperate final project, its last stand. By saying which, let’s assume that the Globalists are “a thing,” a combo of the UK’s remaining potent assets (MI6 and the City of London financial octopus), the megalomaniacal EU bureaucratic leadership (von der Leyen & Co.), and the WEF-Davos gang. Ukraine was their instrument to break up Russia. The project has failed. Yet the war goes on. Mr. Trump says he was not even informed about Ukraine’s recent long-range drone attack deep into Russia, to take out its strategic bombers. Wasn’t informed? WTF???

Was it because the CIA has gone rogue over in Ukraine? Running the war their way — and not even Mr. Ratcliffe has a handle on all that? Consequently, Mr. Trump is yugely embarrassed in his many skull sessions with Mr. Putin. And thus, Mr. Putin seeks to bring about an end to this enormous pain-in-the-ass situation by simply winning the war. Which he is doing. His terms have been simple, plain, and straightforward from the get-go: a disarmed, neutralized Ukraine that must surrender the Donbas provinces, end-of-story, and don’t even mention Crimea because there’s nuthin to talk about there. And, of course, regime change in Kiev. . . eighty-six on Nazis, thank you.

In the natural course of things, the incompetent drug-addict Zelenskyy should have been overthrown by his own people months ago and it is only the rogue US intel community that continues to prop him up. As political dramaturgy, Mr. Trump must pretend to oppose Russia’s winning of the Ukraine War — we don’t let Russia win wars! — though it is the logical best solution to the problem. So, he is forking over the last $100-million, probably just to pay government salaries, pensions, and social services in Kiev for a month or so. But Russia will win and the UK-EU-WEF will be the big loser, and then Britain, France, and Germany can get on with the job of committing suicide, as they’ve dedicated themselves to do.

Mr. Ratcliffe, meanwhile, earnestly attempts to not become a hostage to the agency he’s supposed to run. So amidst all the other sturm-and-drang of July 2025, he issued that report on former CIA director John Brennan’s 2017 Intel Community Assessment that kicked off RussiaGate. Ratcliffe’s report looked like a predicate for a prosecution. And indeed, Mr. Ratcliffe (an experienced prosecutor himself) issued a criminal referral to the DOJ on the matter. . . and voila. . . we learn next that the FBI has indeed been investigating Brennan and former FBI chief James Comey for months — probably since the very day that Patel and Bongino got their office keys.

Well, about goshdarn time. These two seditious caitiffs will be going to court, looks like. Maybe just for lying to congress, which is easy to prove with video and documents, and doesn’t require the spinning-out of a vast prosecutorial narrative that a hostile DC jury could nitpick. We’re also informed that there are more “targets” in the FBI’s investigation. A lot of things are in motion now. Expect cascades of developments.

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/11/2025 - 16:25

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