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These Are The US States With The Most Low-Wage Workers

These Are The US States With The Most Low-Wage Workers

Low-wage work remains widespread across the United States. Even as the labor market continues to expand, wage gains have been uneven, leaving millions of workers earning less than $20 per hour, which is roughly $41,600 annually before taxes for full-time work.

This infographic, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, ranks U.S. states by the share of low-wage workers earning less than $20 per hour, using data from the Economic Policy Institute as of July 2025.

Low-Wage Workforce by State

Nationally, three in 10 workers, or 45.2 million people, fall below the $20-per-hour mark. However, this distribution varies widely by state.

The table below shows the full ranking of states by the share and number of workers earning less than $20 per hour:

Texas tops the list in terms of the number of low-wage workers with nearly 5.1 million people below the $20-per-hour mark. California, the most populous state, follows with around 4 million workers, along with Florida (3.5 million) and New York (2.2 million).

Meanwhile, Mississippi leads in terms of the share of low-wage workers, with 52% of the state’s workers earning under $20 per hour. Other Southern states also rank high, including Louisiana (45%), Arkansas (43%), West Virginia (43%), and Kentucky (41%).

In contrast, the District of Columbia has the lowest share of low-wage workers at 11%, along with Washington (19%) and Massachusetts (18%). These states tend to have a larger share of workers employed in high-paying industries like professional services, health, and information (IT) as compared to states with more low-wage workers.

State Share of workers below $20/hr Number of workers below $20/hr Texas 38% 5,089,000 California 24% 4,002,000 Florida 38% 3,481,000 New York 26% 2,152,000 North Carolina 40% 1,828,000 Pennsylvania 30% 1,696,000 Georgia 37% 1,662,000 Illinois 29% 1,641,000 Ohio 32% 1,627,000 Michigan 33% 1,437,000 Indiana 36% 1,108,000 New Jersey 26% 1,052,000 Virginia 27% 1,033,000 Tennessee 34% 1,007,000 Missouri 37% 1,005,000 Arizona 31% 963,000 South Carolina 37% 824,000 Alabama 39% 821,000 Wisconsin 29% 808,000 Louisiana 45% 781,000 Kentucky 41% 739,000 Oklahoma 42% 735,000 Minnesota 25% 659,000 Washington 19% 639,000 Maryland 22% 630,000 Massachusetts 18% 605,000 Mississippi 52% 581,000 Colorado 21% 553,000 Iowa 37% 547,000 Arkansas 43% 541,000 Nevada 36% 511,000 Utah 33% 511,000 Kansas 35% 474,000 Oregon 23% 416,000 Connecticut 23% 380,000 New Mexico 41% 352,000 Idaho 36% 311,000 Nebraska 32% 298,000 West Virginia 43% 293,000 Hawaii 32% 181,000 Maine 29% 171,000 New Hampshire 24% 161,000 Montana 31% 144,000 South Dakota 32% 137,000 Delaware 30% 135,000 Rhode Island 26% 131,000 North Dakota 28% 103,000 Wyoming 38% 92,000 Vermont 23% 67,000 Alaska 20% 61,000 District of Columbia 11% 41,000 Minimum Wage in the U.S.

The U.S. federal minimum wage has remained at $7.25 per hour since 2009. Adjusted for inflation, that wage now has significantly less purchasing power, making it even lower in real terms.

While more than half of U.S. states have enacted higher local minimum wages, the federal standard still applies in states without their own wage laws, many of which appear at the top of the low-wage workforce rankings.

The Raise the Wage Act, which proposes lifting the federal minimum wage to $17 over five years, has been introduced repeatedly since 2017 but has yet to pass.

If you enjoyed today’s post, see this graphic on Average Salary by State in the U.S. on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 05:45

Nigeria's Christians Are Caught in A Tide Of Jihadi Violence

Nigeria's Christians Are Caught in A Tide Of Jihadi Violence

Authored by Beige Luciano-Adams via The Epoch Times,

Nuhu Dauda was on a missionary trip, about 125 miles away from his home in Plateau state, Nigeria, when he got a panicked call from his younger brother.

“He said jihadists had surrounded my home and were chanting that they would kill everyone inside,” Dauda, a 67-year-old Christian evangelist, told The Epoch Times.

The police helped rescue five family members before heavily armed men burned the house to the ground and killed a young fellow evangelist, he said.

That was in 2005.

“In the 20 years since then I have seen our people massacred,” Dauda said. “I saw my family members, in-laws, and friends killed. I’ve carried the bodies of my own and I buried them.”

The plight of Christians in the country received relatively little global attention until the Trump administration threatened to intervene amid a recent spike in violence, to prevent mass killings it suggested amounts to “genocide.”

The Nigerian government denies claims of religious persecution, rather framing the violence as a security crisis with “complex socio-economic and political roots” that impacts people of all faiths.

But the increase in brutal attacks on Christian communities by radicalized insurgents in recent years both parallels and intersects a broader rise in violent Islamist extremism across the region.

Boko Haram and Surging Violence

Dauda grew up in peace with Muslim friends and neighbors in the country’s fertile Middle Belt region. But everything began to change around 2001.

“It was so strange to us, we never knew that, to see our people killed in a community where Muslims were a minority but well armed,” Dauda said of radicalized groups that began attacking Christians. “They drove us out.”

While the threat has evolved, some observers trace the root of current violence to the rise of Nigeria’s homegrown Sunni jihadist movement more than two decades ago. That movement is synonymous with the terrorist group Boko Haram, sometimes referred to as the “Nigerian Taliban.”

Ebenezer Obadare, a senior fellow for Africa studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, believes all problems are downstream of Boko Haram.

It’s a religious campaign in the sense that this is mass killing initiated by Boko Haram, a group that targets Christians, targets Muslims, targets everybody—because it sees all of them as infidels, or apostates,” Obadare told The Epoch Times.

Caskets holding the bodies of 38 Christian villagers killed by armed Fulani Muslim militants are arranged for a funeral Mass at Government Secondary School in Mallagun, Nigeria, on Sept. 30, 2021. Luka Binniyat/The Epoch Times

Boko Haram, which means, loosely, “Western education is forbidden,” has been designated as a terrorist organization by the United States since 2013.

It embraces a strict interpretation of Islam that uses “extremely narrow criteria to define who counts as a Muslim,” according to a Brookings Institution report.

Formed in 2002, Boko Haram began an armed rebellion against the Nigerian government in 2009 and has retained a stronghold in the northeast, as well as in neighboring Chad, Cameroon, and Niger.

Since then, a mix of violent perpetrators with shifting alliances and feuds has emerged across the north, including the ISIS terror group, al-Qaeda, and Boko Haram offshoots and affiliates, as well as armed bandits, new cross-border groups and ethnic militias.

Nigeria ranks sixth on the Institute for Economics and Peace Global Terrorism Index 2025.

In the northwestern part of the country, where violence has historically been attributed to banditry, al-Qaeda and ISIS affiliates have established a foothold since 2020, and “operationalized these cells since 2024,” according to a recent analysis by Critical Threats, a project of the thinktank American Enterprise Institute.

Reports of civilian killings in Nigeria vary, from 50,000 to more than 100,000 since 2009, with millions more displaced; figures from Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), a U.S.-based monitor, show violence targeting Christians has spiked since 2020 but still pales in comparison to the “broader surge in overall political violence,” which it reports has resulted in far more Muslim deaths.

In 2021 the United Nations estimated nearly 350,000 people had died as a result, directly or indirectly, of ongoing conflict in the country since 2009.

While estimates vary, Obadare said, “what nobody can doubt is that a lot of people are being killed—and more important is the fact that they’re being killed for a religious reason.”

U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) fighters celebrate after fighting the ISIS terrorist group near the village of Baghouz, Syria, on March 15, 2019. The increase in brutal attacks on Christian communities by radicalized insurgents in recent years both parallels and intersects a broader rise in violent Islamist extremism worldwide and especially in West Africa. Giuseppe Cacace/AFP via Getty Images

Brazen Attacks Escalate

President Donald Trump in October re-listed Nigeria as a “Country of Particular Concern,” a formal designation given to the world’s worst religious freedom offenders.

And in a Nov. 20 congressional hearing, State Department officials said they are working on a comprehensive plan to help bolster the country’s own security and counterterrorism efforts.

Just hours after that hearing, gunmen on Nov. 21 stormed a Catholic school in the Middle Belt, kidnapping more than 300 students and 12 teachers.

It was the fourth mass kidnapping that week, and one of the worst in the country’s history, surpassing even the 2014 Boko Haram kidnapping of 276 Chibok Secondary School girls. Last year Amnesty International reported more than 1,700 children have been abducted by the group in the decade since.

Kidnapping victims, according to the group, are often forced to fight, marry their captors, or are sold into sex slavery.

The wave of violence from Nov. 15 to Nov. 21 also included an attack on a Christian church during a service, in which two people were killed and 38 kidnapped; as well as the abduction of 24 female students from a secondary school, and the murder of three people and kidnapping of 64 from their homes.

(Top) A general view of a classroom at St. Mary's Catholic School in Papiri, Agwarra local government, Niger state, Nigeria, on Nov. 23, 2025. (Bottom L) A signboard for St Mary's Private Catholic Secondary School stands at the entrance of the school in Papiri, Agwarra local government, Niger state, Nigeria, on Nov. 23, 2025. (Bottom R) A general view of empty bunk beds and scattered belongings inside a student dormitory at St. Mary's Catholic School in Papiri, Agwarra local government, Niger state, Nigeria, on Nov. 23, 2025. Ifeanyi Immanuel Bakwenye/AFP via Getty Images

On Nov. 24, Nigerian media reported suspected Boko Haram terrorists abducted 12 women from Borno state and razed a village elsewhere in the state.

“We hoped the [Country of Particular Concern] designation by President Trump at the end of October might stabilize the situation,“ the Most Rev. Wilfred Anagbe, a Nigerian Catholic bishop, told lawmakers during the Nov. 20 hearing, ”but instead it is deteriorating into one of the most lethal periods for Nigerian Christians in recent memory.”

While the government has tried to confront the terror threat, Dauda said, “this is not the confrontational war that militaries are used to. They hide, attack, pull away, and cover. The government has tried, but they are overwhelmed.”

The Nigerian government did not respond to requests for comment from The Epoch Times, but recently said in a statement posted on X that its security agencies since 2023 have “neutralized” more than 13,500 terrorists, arrested more than 17,000 suspects, and rescued more than 9,800 kidnap victims.

Fulani Militias

In May, Amnesty International reported at least 10,217 people had been killed in attacks by gunmen in the two years since current president Bola Ahmed Tinubu was elected, mostly in the predominantly-Christian Middle Belt states of Benue and Plateau.

Such attacks have drawn attention to longstanding conflicts between farmers, who are largely Christian, and Fulani herdsmen, who are semi-nomadic and predominantly Muslim in the Middle Belt.

The Nigerian government characterizes this as a land-use dispute driven by the climate, resource scarcity, and population growth.

According to Open Doors, an organization that tracks persecution of Christians, Fulani militants are responsible for 55 percent of recorded Christian deaths between 2019 and 2023.

The Observatory for Religious Freedom in Africa in July published research showing Fulani militias accounted for 47 percent of the 36,056 civilian killings between 2019 and 2024—more than five times the combined death toll of other prominent terrorist organizations such as Boko Haram and an offshoot known as Islamic State-West Africa Province.

A group of armed Fulani militiamen pose for a picture at an informal demobilization camp in Sevare, Mali, on July 6, 2019. Open Doors, an organization that tracks persecution of Christians, reported that Fulani militants were responsible for 55 percent of recorded Christian deaths from 2019 to 2023. Marco Longari/AFP via Getty Images

More recently, other monitors such as the International Bar Association’s Eyewitness Global have noted “considerable escalation” in violence with “religious and ethnic dimension” in the Middle Belt.

And while the 2015 Global Terrorism Index ranked armed Fulani militants the fourth-deadliest terror group in the world, the Observatory notes they have “mysteriously vanished” from international rankings despite having become “exponentially more lethal.”

Dauda, the Christian evangelist, says it’s a small number instigating and radicalizing an otherwise peaceful population. “Most Fulanis are innocent. Most want to live a peaceful life and take care of their cattle.”

Héni Nsaibia, ACLED’s West Africa senior analyst, told The Epoch Times the violence in the Middle Belt is “multidirectional” and can’t be reduced to a kind of religious war.

“To focus on the persecution of Christians really doesn’t capture the problem,” Nsaibia said. “That is not the main conflict—the real threat are the jihadi groups that are expanding and larger segments of the population are falling under their influence, and they are now competing with the state.”

Some of those groups, such as Islamic State-Sahel Province, are majority Fulani, he said, but operate primarily in majority-Muslim states, meaning their civilian victims are mostly Muslims.

As the conflict expanded across the region, Nsaibia said, the most powerful groups concentrated in Mali and Burkina Faso, where many fighters are Fulani. “So it’s more circumstantial, but also how the state has reacted to the insurgency.”

In many countries in the region, Fulani and other herder ethnicities have long been disenfranchised by the state, Nsaibia said, making them a prime target for radicalization.

‘Horrific Things’

Born a Fulani Muslim, Musa Belo converted to Christianity and became an evangelical preacher. Vocal on social media about what he calls a Christian genocide, he is currently in hiding, facing death threats from Islamists—and reprisal from the government, he says.

Belo told The Epoch Times that he typically visits many remote villages only accessible by motorcycle or on foot.

He described going to a village in Plateau state for outreach.

“We preached the gospel to them, we did medical outreach, shared Bibles, and we left. Then fast forward, this last October, we went back for a follow-up,” he said.

The whole village had been wiped out.

“You stumble on human skeletons, you stumble on a body that has not even decayed. … Horrific things,” Belo said.

Sean Nelson, an attorney with Alliance Defending Freedom (ADF), recalls visiting victims in the aftermath of a Christmas Eve 2023 attack that killed more than 200 people across mostly Christian villages in the same region.

People pose for a photograph at St. Mary's Catholic Primary and Secondary School after armed men abducted children and staff in Papiri, Nigeria, on Nov. 21, 2025. Christian Association of Nigeria via AP

“They went after pastors’ homes. They went after churches first. The first village we went to, there was a pastor who, the militants came to his house on Christmas Eve, took him and his family, torched his house, walked him out behind the church and beheaded him.”

Every witness told him the attackers came in with machetes shouting “Allahu Akbar,” and “We will kill Christians,” Nelson said.

John Stewart, an American attorney and pastor who regularly travels to Africa to teach and train Christian leaders, described Nigerian communities devastated by systemic violence and displacement.

“I went to the relocation centers. These are Christians that have been driven out of their villages by Fulani Muslims, with the military looking the other way,” he told The Epoch Times.

“They’re sleeping on cement floors in churches. … They didn’t have anything other than shovels and rakes to defend themselves.”

‘Others Who Are Behind This’

Both Dauda and Belo say Fulanis are coming to Nigeria from other countries.

“I had an encounter with one, and I am Fulani by tribe,” Belo said. “When I spoke to him, I understood that this is not Nigerian Fulani. He told me he was from Mali, and his group was headed to Benue state.”

Nigeria’s borders with Niger and Chad are easy to penetrate, he said. “They are all using sophisticated weapons—machine guns, AK 49s, RPGs—that even our military are not using,” Belo said.

“This thing has been happening for two decades, but the Nigerian government has never brought a single perpetrator to justice,” Belo said.

Dauda marveled at the sight of Fulani herdsmen carrying machine guns.

“A Fulani man takes care of his cow—that is his bank account, the future of his children. How are such innocent Fulanis operating such guns?” he said.

“It means there are others who are behind this. And I want the world to know, they have been brainwashed,” he said. “Their target is to go across the nation—that’s why you hear of killings in churches in the south.”

Arms and ammunition recovered from Boko Haram jihadists are displayed at the 120th Battalion headquarters in Goniri, Nigeria, on July 3, 2019. Boko Haram, loosely translated as “Western education is forbidden,” has been designated a terrorist organization by the United States since 2013. Audu Marte/AFP via Getty Images

The Heart of Jihadi Terror

The Nigerian government has framed attacks on Christian communities such as Dauda’s in the country’s Middle Belt or north central region as ethnic land-use disputes, as distinct from the terror of jihadists in the northeast, or the anarchy of bandits in the northwest.

But amid transnational expansion of Islamist extremism, with weapons and fighters flowing across porous borders, some analysts say such distinctions are vanishingly relevant, and a distraction from the all-consuming threat of violent fundamentalism.

The Central Sahel region of sub-Saharan Africa, which includes Nigeria and stretches from the North Atlantic to the Red Sea, has replaced the Middle East as the epicenter of global Salafi-jihadist violence, now accounting for 51 percent of all global terrorism deaths, according to the Institute for Economics and Peace “Global Terrorism Index 2025: Measuring the Impact of Terrorism” report.

Investigations by Conflict Armament Research, a British-based group that tracks illegal weapons, has suggested proliferation of weapons throughout the Sahel was precipitated by the 2011 fall of the heavily armed Moammar Gadhafi regime in Libya.

Data from ACLED shows jihadists groups have entered “a new phase of expansion” in the Sahel.

In a December report, the group notes that as jihadist groups solidify their operations, distinctions between regional conflicts are giving way to a broader, singular threat.

ACLED reports 79 percent of ISIS operations were in Africa in 2025—up from 49 percent in 2024. Islamic State-West Africa Province “controls broad swaths of territory and has killed or displaced thousands of people in Nigeria and neighboring countries,” according to the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence’s Counter Terrorism Guide.

A defensive trench built to protect against incursions by Boko Haram surrounds the town of Monguno, Borno state, Nigeria, on July 4, 2025. Joris Bolomey/AFP via Getty Images

Collaboration among jihadist groups is growing, ACLED’s Nsaibia said. In some cases, Nigerian groups have been incorporated into broader global structures such as ISIS or al-Qaeda affiliates, or coordinate with regional groups across borders to share weapons, propaganda or fighters.

As the Sahel has become the global epicenter of jihadist militancy, he explains, Nigerian groups have been expanding from their historic base in the Lake Chad Basin, and into coastal West Africa. “As these groups are finding one another, they also form a sort of junction between these two very distinct conflict theaters.”

“We know for sure that all of these groups are united at least by one aim, which is they want to destroy the modern state as we know it,” Obadare said.

In neighboring Mali, jihadists are currently on the verge of overrunning the country, according to a report last month by the Soufan Center.

Sharia and Blasphemy

In the years following Nigeria’s 1999 transition to a constitutional democracy, 12 northern states have re-integrated Islamic criminal law. In theory, sharia applies only to Muslims, but in practice, human rights advocates argue, it is used to justify mob violence and state-sanctioned capital punishment.

“Death-penalty blasphemy law in the 12 Northern States is an outrageous thing,” ADF’s Nelson said. ADF intervenes on behalf of individuals facing blasphemy and apostasy charges in Nigeria’s sharia courts.

“It is one of only seven places in the world with a law like that,” he said.

In 2024, Amnesty International reported an escalation of mob violence across the country, including killings related to blasphemy accusations in which victims have been lynched, stoned, tortured, and burned alive.

“The apparent encouragement of killings for blasphemy by religious leaders creates an environment in which mobs feel entitled to take the law into their own hands. Meanwhile, government officials rarely publicly condemn mob violence for blasphemy,” the group reported.

Six men condemned for armed robbery stand before their execution by firing squad at Kirikiri Prison in Lagos, Nigeria, on Feb. 21, 1998. Since Nigeria’s 1999 return to civilian rule, 12 northern states have reintroduced Islamic criminal law, known as sharia, which human rights advocates say has been used to justify mob violence and state-sanctioned capital punishment. AFP via Getty Images

‘A Religious Element’

Obadare from the Council on Foreign Relations said the conversation about violence in Nigeria has become increasingly muddied; there used to be consensus, he says, that the threat was fundamentalism.

“The idea that Islamist insurgents should not be described or portrayed as what they are because you don’t want to offend mainstream Muslims … I find [this] condescending to mainstream Muslims,” Obadare said.

“The more Boko Haram says our aim is religious; we want to replace Nigeria with an Islamic state; we hate democracy; unbelief is the problem … the more people on the other side double down and say, ‘Nope, you don’t know what you’re talking about. It’s climate change, it’s got nothing to do with religion.'”

Despite the constant threat, Dauda said he wouldn’t think of living anywhere else.

“We are asking God to intervene,” he said. “That’s why we even have an opportunity to tell you about this.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 05:00

Visualizing The Complete History Of European Colonization

Visualizing The Complete History Of European Colonization

Europe’s colonial empires have shaped the world’s political and economic systems for over 500 years.

From Portugal’s early ventures in the 1400s, to Britain’s massive empire in the early 20th century, European nations have competed for control of territory and trade across nearly every continent.

In this graphic, Visual Capitalist's Marcus Lu traces the history of European colonies from 1462 to today, showing how the era of colonies rose and fell.

The data for this visualization comes from Our World in Data. It tracks the number of overseas colonies under the control of key European powers including the UK, France, Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands, and others.

These numbers provide a historical record of how European influence expanded through exploration, conquest, and colonization, and later declined through wars, independence movements, and international pressure.

The Early Days of Colonization

Portugal was the first European nation to establish an overseas colony, beginning in the 1400s along the African coast and Atlantic islands. Spain followed soon after with its vast empire in the Americas.

An important milestone was the Treaty of Tordesillas (1494), which granted Spain and Portugal exclusive rights to explore, claim, and colonize along an agreed meridian. Backed by royal patronage and emerging maritime technology, Portugal built trading outposts from Brazil to the Indian Ocean, while Spain established vast territorial colonies across the Americas through conquest, settlement, and resource extraction.

By the early 1600s, BritainFrance, and the Netherlands had joined the race, creating colonies in North America, the Caribbean, and Asia. This competition fueled centuries of maritime exploration and conflict, laying the groundwork for global trade and cultural exchange.

Unfortunately, colonization also brought about exploitation and displacement, characterized by the seizure of land and resources, forced labor, and the disruption of indigenous peoples.

Decolonization and the End of Empire

After World War II, global power shifted. European empires were financially drained and politically weakened, losing the capacity to control their vast overseas territories. Meanwhile, rising nationalist movements across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East pushed for independence.

A clear example is India’s independence from Britain in 1947, which became a catalyst for global decolonization. Britain was exhausted after World War II, and with growing independence movements led by Mahatma Gandhi, the British government was forced to concede sovereignty.

Between 1945 and the late 20th century, the number of European-controlled colonial territories declined dramatically, marking the end of formal empire building. Dozens of former colonies across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East gained independence during this period.

What remains today are a small number of overseas territories—such as islands and enclaves—administered by European states under special constitutional arrangements. These territories generally have significant local autonomy and are no longer considered colonies in the traditional sense, though debates over self-determination persist in some cases.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out The State of Global Democracy on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 04:15

A Collapse In Germany's Chemical Sector Is A Bad Omen

A Collapse In Germany's Chemical Sector Is A Bad Omen

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe,

Historically, the chemical industry has proven to be an excellent early indicator of severe economic downturns. Its present condition should serve as a warning: the climate-policy regime is at the beginning of its collapse. And Berlin’s fiscal bazooka—loaded with yet more debt—won’t change a thing.

Some readers will remember the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2001. For five years, a relentless tech boom carried markets higher. The Nasdaq surged from one all-time high to the next in a frenzy that clouded the judgment of both institutional investors and retail traders. No one knew when the music would stop.

The Dot-Com Crash

But had investors aligned their behavior with developments in Germany’s chemical industry, they might have avoided the inevitable portfolio disaster. By mid-2000, chemical output in Germany had already fallen by six percent—a bad omen for the real economy, because chemicals are an early reflection of what is happening in the core industrial sectors: machinery, automotive, construction, and consumer goods.

Its deep integration into the value chains of the real economy makes the chemical industry a crystal ball with exceptional predictive sharpness.

And indeed, the following year the German economy drifted into recession. The U.S. economy weakened as well, immediately hurting German chemical exports. With the broader economy faltering, the stock-market dream evaporated. One pinprick, and everything collapsed. The blow struck directly at millions of small investors who paid their tuition for their first market “education” the hard way.

Markets are driven not only by sentiment but by productivity trends and money-supply dynamics. In the short run, they are expressions of liquidity conditions and mirror the credit cycle.

A Recession After Reunification

Let’s travel back another ten years—to late 1991, early 1992. The euphoria of German reunification had reached its preliminary economic peak. Government stimulus programs pumped credit into the construction sector, pushing money into inefficient, unnecessary infrastructure. An artificial post-reunification boom set in—only to be hit with its first major shock shortly thereafter.

At the turn of the year, Germany’s chemical industry slid into a sectoral recession and lost around seven percent of its real production volume over the next eighteen months. Once again, the chemical sector’s predictive power proved accurate: barely six months later, the overall economy followed it into recession.

Some 1.5 million people lost their jobs; GDP shrank 0.8 percent—and in 1994, markets slumped again.

Markets reacted to drastic tightening by the Federal Reserve, which attempted to rein in runaway inflation by squeezing liquidity. It marked the end of the business cycle—one that the chemical sector had correctly anticipated, once again, with lead time.

Recession or Structural Break?

After each downturn, Germany’s chemical sector reemerged more innovative and more export-competitive. It shed dysfunctional segments during recessions and then grew like a snake shedding its skin.

Both crises can also be read as monetary-policy phenomena. Centrally planned credit costs—set through interest-rate policy—created mild boom-bust cycles, a systemic flaw within an otherwise market-oriented system that could still absorb such central-bank interventions.

Which brings us to the present: Are we still following a classic business cycle—or have we already witnessed a structural break? The facts are clear. Since 2018, it is not only the chemical sector that has been collapsing. The entire foundation of industrial production appears to have cracked. Across all sectors, output is roughly 20 percent below 2018 levels.

Nothing in the current environment suggests this will change. No amount of artificial government credit can fill the gaping void in Germany’s industrial base—not through weapons contracts, not through subsidized green-sector patronage.

Green Tribute

Germany has entered an era of deindustrialization due to catastrophic political decisions. The numbers are unambiguous, even if corporate leaders such as BASF CEO Markus Kamieth refuse to say it openly—dependency on the state’s subsidy machinery trumps any notion of responsibility inside today’s corporate bureaucracy.

In Berlin, Brussels, Paris, and London, a corporatist mindset has taken hold. Political elites became intoxicated by the subsidy bonanza surrounding the Green Deal—an entire hallucinated green transformation built on CO₂ narratives and dumped onto taxpayers.

The continued decline of the chemical sector shows that industrial production in Germany is no longer viable under current conditions. Central-planning energy-market design generates costs that drive companies out of the country. Germany lost €64.5 billion in direct investment last year alone; this year, the figure will likely exceed €100 billion.

German society is impoverishing in fast-forward because its political class refuses to understand that industrial production is the true source of societal wealth—and because it remains convinced that a centrally planned artificial economy can replace productive enterprise.

Everything that depends on industry—complex value chains, services, suppliers, high-income jobs, even the bloated state budget—lives off the innovative strength and productive capacity of a free industrial sector.

Political Camouflage

If Germany’s green “degrowth chancellor” Friedrich Merz and his entourage now make cautious adjustments to the climate-socialist regime—floating a new EV subsidy, tying industrial electricity prices to “eco-investments”—this is nothing more than political camouflage. Policymakers are fighting desperately to preserve the green course. Merz is essentially an “autopen” of the Merkel-Scholz era—a green central planner in borrowed conservative clothes whose flock is abandoning him.

We are witnessing nothing less than a civilizational rupture—and the rise of a climate-socialist regime already lying in economic ruins before its architects could even reap an illusionary harvest.

The political response to rising criticism has been predictable and pathetic: repression, censorship, and intimidation—an admission of failure in the assault on personal liberty.

Markets should brace for high volatility, because Berlin and Brussels are tying their political survival to massive new debt issuance and an accelerating nationalization of the credit process.

The ongoing collapse of the chemical sector signals a political crisis—one that will not end until this new socialist experiment has completely failed. Until then, the German people will have to navigate an accelerating spiral of impoverishment.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 03:30

Cocaine: Local Cultivation, Global Consumption

Cocaine: Local Cultivation, Global Consumption

Although cocaine is consumed in every part of the world, its base, the coca plant, is mainly cultivated in three Latin American countries: Peru, Bolivia and Colombia.

As Statista's Anna Fleck details below, according to figures by UNODC, Colombia was responsible for almost two thirds of the total coca cultivation area in 2023 at 253,000 hectares.

Peru came in second with 93,000 hectares, while Bolivia ranked third with 31,000 hectares.

 Where Cocaine Is Produced and Where It’s Consumed | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

When looking at the cocaine market from the users' perspective, North America had the largest estimated share of people reporting having consumed cocaine in 2023, with 6.5 million or 26 percent of total global users of the drug.

Overall, the Americas made up just under half of estimated cocaine users worldwide according to the UNODC data, while in Europe and Asia, the estimated number of cocaine users stood at 6 million and 3.4 million, respectively.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 02:45

Why Is Europe Feverishly Preparing For World War III?

Why Is Europe Feverishly Preparing For World War III?

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

If there is going to be peace, why are we witnessing the largest military buildup in Europe since the end of the Cold War?  When it comes to the major players on the geopolitical stage, it is far more important to watch what they do than it is to listen to what they say.  And right now the actions that the major European powers are taking are telling us that they are preparing for a huge war with Russia.

Ukraine was supposed to be the final piece of the puzzle for the European Union.

It is an enormous chunk of territory, and it is absolutely teeming with natural resources.

For most European leaders, it is unthinkable that Ukraine could be allowed to fall back into Russian hands, but at the moment more Ukrainian territory is being taken by the Russians with each passing day.

In fact, it is being reported that the city of Seversk has just fallen…

Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, said that the “Southern” group of troops had taken control of the city of Seversk in the DPR.

“The city of Seversk has been liberated,” Gerasimov said during a report to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Every time the Russians move forward, European leaders feel even more pressure to send troops into Ukraine.

Apparently the British already have at least some soldiers in Ukraine, because one of them just died

The British soldier who died in Ukraine on Tuesday has been named as L/Cpl George Hooley, 28, of the Parachute regiment.

Keir Starmer told the Commons on Wednesday that Hooley had died in a “tragic accident” away from the frontlines while watching a test of “a new defensive capability” with members of the Ukrainian military.

“His life was full of courage and determination,” Starmer said. “He served our country with honour and distinction around the world in the cause of freedom and democracy, including as part of the small number of British personnel in Ukraine.”

Did you notice that Starmer was purposely vague about how many British troops are in Ukraine?

Is it 100?

Is it 1,000?

Is it 10,000?

We would like to know.

Meanwhile, we are being told that plans are in the works to significantly expand the size of the French army…

France will this week become the latest EU country to set out plans to expand its army, with Emmanuel Macron expected to announce on Thursday that military service will be restored – albeit on a voluntary basis – nearly 30 years after the end of conscription.

In the face of Russia’s military threat and uncertainty over the US’s commitment to defending its transatlantic allies, Europe is rushing to bolster its defence industry and its deployment capability after radically cutting them back since the cold war.

Why would the French need a much larger army if a peace deal is going to be negotiated with the Russians?

And why have French hospitals been instructed to prepare for tens of thousands of casualties?…

French hospitals have been told to prepare a potential armed conflict in Europe by next year, local media reported.

In a letter sent to regional health agencies, revealed by Le Canard Enchaîné , the Ministry of Health asked hospitals to prepare for a “major (military) engagement” by March 2026.

The newspaper warned that between 10,000 and 50,000 men could be expected in hospitals over a period of 10 to 180 days.

Something doesn’t add up.

We are being told one thing, but plans are being made for something else to happen instead.

Other European nations are also making plans for large scale military conflict

Denmark’s conscription system was extended to women and lengthened to 11 months from four in June. Estonia has universal male conscription, while Latvia and Lithuania, like Denmark, select conscripts by lottery if there are not enough volunteers.

Elsewhere, Croatia, which abolished mandatory military service 17 years ago, recently restored conscription, while Poland is working on a plan to prepare large-scale military training for every adult male in an effort to double the size of its army.

Is it just a coincidence that all of these countries are suddenly makes these moves in unison?

In Germany, military spending is about to go soaring into uncharted territory

At a moment the Russia-Ukraine war grinds on, and as Trump-led efforts to find peace have been frustrated – largely as Zelensky and his backers have balked at agreeing to any territorial compromise as the bases of a deal – Germany is busy transforming its military with an aim to boost Bundeswehr numbers and meet NATO targets.

That news dominated headlines last week, but added to this Bloombergis newly reporting Tuesday that the troop expansion will coincide with a major tech and armament expansion, given lawmakers are expected to approve a record €52 billion (about $61 billion) in military procurement contracts next week.

This will mark the largest single-year investment in defense equipment in the country’s history, underscoring Berlin’s renewed push to modernize its armed forces amid the growing European standoff with Russia.

As for 2025 numbers, prior approvals brought total defense commitments for this year to above €33 billion. So next year’s could more than double, based on the new projected figures.

If there is going to be peace with Russia, this level of military spending makes no sense at all.

But if there is going to be war with Russia, this level of military spending is easily explained.

On Thursday, NATO Chief Mark Rutte ominously warned that “we must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents and great grandparents endured”…

NATO Chief Mark Rutte urged member countries to do more to prepare for the possibility of large-scale war, warning that Russia may be ready to attack the alliance within five years.

“We are Russia’s next target. And we are already in harm’s way,” Rutte said on Thursday during a speech in Berlin. “Russia has brought war back to Europe, and we must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents and great grandparents endured.”

Although he welcomed the decision by NATO members to increase overall military spending to 5 percent of gross domestic product annually by 2035, Rutte argued more needed to be done, saying alliance members must shift to a “wartime mindset.”

What wars did our grandparents and our great-grandparents endure?

Obviously he was referring to World War I and World War II.

In other words, he was telling us that we need to get ready for World War III.

But the Russians have told us over and over again that they have no intention of going to war with Europe.  In fact, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov used those exact words earlier this week.  But he did warn that there are a couple of red lines that will force the Russians to respond if they are crossed…

“As the President [Putin] emphasised, we have no intention of going to war with Europe,” said Lavrov.

“We have no such intention.

“But we will respond to any hostile steps, including the deployment of European military contingents in Ukraine and the expropriation of Russian assets.”

Sending large numbers of European troops into Ukraine would be a really foolish thing to do, because the Russians would begin shooting at them.

And once that starts happening, we will be perilously close to nuclear conflict.

This is something that they talk about on Russian television all the time.  Commenting on the confirmed death of a British soldier in Ukraine, one of the most prominent voices on Russian television boldly declared that “a nuclear strike on Britain is inevitable”

Leading Kremlin propagandist hawk, Vladimir Solovyov, told viewers on his nightly show: “Now a nuclear strike on Britain is inevitable….” Historian Andrey Sidorov, another Putin cheerleader, said: “This incident should be considered a casus belli, when the British Ministry of Defence officially acknowledged the death of its military personnel on active duty on Ukrainian territory.” He demanded the Russian foreign ministry summon British ambassador Nigel Casey or a chargé d’affaires “to explain what an active-duty military officer was doing there”.

That is crazy talk.

But this is how they actually see the world.

We should be trying to avoid a worst case scenario while we still can.

The expropriation of Russian assets is another red line for the Russians, and it appears that the Europeans are determined to cross it as well…

Currently EU member states are rapidly advancing a plan to permanently freeze as much as €210 billion ($244.38 billion) in Russian state assets to finance Ukraine for at least the next two years. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is seeking to use a loophole to rush this through, based on invoking emergency powers to sanction the frozen assets on a permanent basis, instead of holding the funds based on current six-month renewals, which requires unanimous agreement from all member states.

The plan would see €90 billion (roughly $104.71 billion) released over the next two years. Von der Leyen’s scheme would allow for the plan to pass merely with a qualified majority, and so couldn’t be derailed by just a lone veto. Nations like Germany and Spain have already signaled their support.

This is a really bad idea.

But the Europeans are apparently going to do it anyway.

Meanwhile, the U.S. continues to provoke the Russians by messing with their closest ally in South America.

Yesterday, I posted an article about the oil tanker that the U.S. just seized as it was approaching Venezuela.

On Thursday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov wanted an explanation

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Thursday demanded that the Trump administration explain why a Venezuelan oil tanker was seized by U.S. forces.

“I really hope that the United States, although they consider themselves entitled to conduct such operations, will somehow explain, out of respect for other members of the world community, what facts led them to take such actions,” he said during an ambassadors’ roundtable on the Ukrainian crisis resolution.

And Russian President Vladimir Putin made it a point to publicly demonstrate his support for Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro…

Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke to Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by phone on Thursday to reassure him of Moscow’s support for his government, shortly after the United States seized a large oil tanker off Venezuela’s coast.

Maduro has been under increasing pressure from President Donald Trump’s administration to leave office, with the U.S. conducting increasingly large military build-up in the Caribbean. Tensions escalated on Wednesday when the U.S. seized the tanker, sparking furious outcry from Venezuela.

The Kremlin said that Putin and Maduro had discussed a strategic partnership agreement and working together on several joint projects related to the economy and energy sector.

A regime change operation in Venezuela would do severe damage to our relationship with the Russians.

But officials in Washington don’t seem to care.

In fact, the White House has announced that the U.S. may soon seize even more oil tankers

President Donald Trump is willing to seize more oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela, a White House official told CNBC on Thursday.

The U.S. seized a tanker on Wednesday that had allegedly transported oil from Venezuela to Iran. The action comes as Trump escalates pressure on President Nicolás Maduro.

I feel like I am watching a slow-motion train wreck that I am unable to stop.

I have been writing about these wars for so long, and now they are unfolding right in front of our eyes.

Personally, I have no idea why so many prominent voices out there are cheering for war.

War is not a game.

And that is especially true when nuclear weapons are involved.

The fate of billions of people is hanging in the balance, and we must step back from the brink before it is too late.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/15/2025 - 02:00

When You're In A Hole, Stop Digging

When You're In A Hole, Stop Digging

Authored by J. Peder Zane via RealClearPolitics,

President Trump was onto something when he replaced Joe Biden’s White House portrait with a mocking picture of an autopen. Given our recent history of failed leadership, why stop there?

To truly capture the impact of this century’s presidents, let’s replace George W. Bush’s photo with a picture of a small hole and a shovel. Instead of Barack Obama’s dazzling smile, how about a deeper hole with a longer shovel? And maybe an earth mover before a crater in Donald Trump’s first term. Maybe stick with Biden’s autopen as a tip of the cap to a great idea, although a shot of the Grand Canyon would fit as well. As for Trump’s second term, if things keep going in the same direction, the art department might start working on a drawing of Alfred E. Neumann with his famous tagline, “What, Me Worry”?

If this sounds harsh, consider the fiscal abyss these men have plunged us into. Since George W. Bush’s presidency, the national debt has been widely acknowledged as one of our nation’s chief challenges. In 2000, it was equal to 55% of our GDP; it now stands at 121%. The oxymoronically named Government Accountability Office projects that percentage will double by 2053.

It costs about $1 trillion per year just to service our $38.5 trillion debt, which is still growing at close to $2 trillion per year.

Presidents can’t do this alone. Congress passes the budgets, and the American people just go along with the charade. Everybody wants what they want; nobody is willing to sacrifice. The modern welfare state launched by Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal, supercharged by Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society – and expanded by every president and Congress since the 1960s – has become a massive system of transfer payments that now sends some 72.5 million Americans government assistance.

Even if we cut our leaders some slack for making entitlement reform the Godot of modern politics, their intentional unwillingness to even pluck the low-hanging fruit of obvious fraud and abuse is impossible to defend.

When the ongoing investigation of massive fraud in Minnesota became big news in recent weeks, President Trump did not take the opportunity to focus the nation’s attention on the huge amount of federal dollars being swiped by con artists and grifters. Instead of calling for a top-to-bottom review of expensive programs, he cast the fraud as an immigration issue – falsely suggesting that all would be well if we hadn’t admitted so many Somali immigrants.

The truth is, most everybody has their snout in the trough.

Right now, Congress is debating the future of enhanced Obamacare subsidies passed in 2021: Democrats want to extend them, Republicans want to spend some of the money in other ways. What no one is addressing in any serious way is the strong evidence of massive fraud in the program. Earlier this year, RealClearInvestigations reported on a study that found that an estimated 12 million enrollees had not filed a single claim in 2024 – suggesting that brokers and insurance companies may be adding phantom patients to juice profits. In a separate effort, the GAO reports that it has tested Obamacare’s verification system by submitting 24 fictional applications during the last two years – almost all of them were approved for expensive benefits. Reason magazine reported that the GAO auditors also “found more than 66,000 Social Security numbers attached to records showing more than 366 days of health insurance coverage – an indicator that those Social Security numbers may have been used multiple times in the same year. Additionally, GAO found more than 58,000 Social Security numbers matching death records in the Social Security Administration’s database. More than $94 million in tax credits were delivered to those accounts.”

Meanwhile, a series of reports in the Washington Post suggests rampant fraud in benefits paid to veterans. Where a 100% disability rating used to be a relatively rare status given to those who suffered truly debilitating and disfiguring injuries, today 1.5 million of the roughly 6 million veterans receiving disability payments have that classification – “a nearly ninefold increase since 2021.” Part of this increase, the Post reports, is driven by a growing industry, “steeped in hucksterism and fraud,” that recruits and coaches “to pile on benefits,” through what appears to be a rubber-stamp government review system.

Meanwhile, a Wall Street Journal series has documented rampant fraud in Medicaid and Medicare. One article reportedthat health insurers “collected at least $4.3 billion over three years for [hundreds of thousands of] patients who were enrolled – and paid for – in other states.” Another article reported that “Medicare Advantage insurers diagnosed patients with conditions that triggered extra payments of $50 billion from 2019 to 2021, even though no doctor ever treated the diseases.”

Despite its crushing costs, America’s vast welfare state is not going away. Although it is more likely that fiscal catastrophe rather than courageous leadership will one day ignite necessary reforms, in the meantime we might soften that day of reckoning by addressing the bad actors sucking us dry.

Some advice to our future leaders: When you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 23:20

When You're In A Hole, Stop Digging

When You're In A Hole, Stop Digging

Authored by J. Peder Zane via RealClearPolitics,

President Trump was onto something when he replaced Joe Biden’s White House portrait with a mocking picture of an autopen. Given our recent history of failed leadership, why stop there?

To truly capture the impact of this century’s presidents, let’s replace George W. Bush’s photo with a picture of a small hole and a shovel. Instead of Barack Obama’s dazzling smile, how about a deeper hole with a longer shovel? And maybe an earth mover before a crater in Donald Trump’s first term. Maybe stick with Biden’s autopen as a tip of the cap to a great idea, although a shot of the Grand Canyon would fit as well. As for Trump’s second term, if things keep going in the same direction, the art department might start working on a drawing of Alfred E. Neumann with his famous tagline, “What, Me Worry”?

If this sounds harsh, consider the fiscal abyss these men have plunged us into. Since George W. Bush’s presidency, the national debt has been widely acknowledged as one of our nation’s chief challenges. In 2000, it was equal to 55% of our GDP; it now stands at 121%. The oxymoronically named Government Accountability Office projects that percentage will double by 2053.

It costs about $1 trillion per year just to service our $38.5 trillion debt, which is still growing at close to $2 trillion per year.

Presidents can’t do this alone. Congress passes the budgets, and the American people just go along with the charade. Everybody wants what they want; nobody is willing to sacrifice. The modern welfare state launched by Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal, supercharged by Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society – and expanded by every president and Congress since the 1960s – has become a massive system of transfer payments that now sends some 72.5 million Americans government assistance.

Even if we cut our leaders some slack for making entitlement reform the Godot of modern politics, their intentional unwillingness to even pluck the low-hanging fruit of obvious fraud and abuse is impossible to defend.

When the ongoing investigation of massive fraud in Minnesota became big news in recent weeks, President Trump did not take the opportunity to focus the nation’s attention on the huge amount of federal dollars being swiped by con artists and grifters. Instead of calling for a top-to-bottom review of expensive programs, he cast the fraud as an immigration issue – falsely suggesting that all would be well if we hadn’t admitted so many Somali immigrants.

The truth is, most everybody has their snout in the trough.

Right now, Congress is debating the future of enhanced Obamacare subsidies passed in 2021: Democrats want to extend them, Republicans want to spend some of the money in other ways. What no one is addressing in any serious way is the strong evidence of massive fraud in the program. Earlier this year, RealClearInvestigations reported on a study that found that an estimated 12 million enrollees had not filed a single claim in 2024 – suggesting that brokers and insurance companies may be adding phantom patients to juice profits. In a separate effort, the GAO reports that it has tested Obamacare’s verification system by submitting 24 fictional applications during the last two years – almost all of them were approved for expensive benefits. Reason magazine reported that the GAO auditors also “found more than 66,000 Social Security numbers attached to records showing more than 366 days of health insurance coverage – an indicator that those Social Security numbers may have been used multiple times in the same year. Additionally, GAO found more than 58,000 Social Security numbers matching death records in the Social Security Administration’s database. More than $94 million in tax credits were delivered to those accounts.”

Meanwhile, a series of reports in the Washington Post suggests rampant fraud in benefits paid to veterans. Where a 100% disability rating used to be a relatively rare status given to those who suffered truly debilitating and disfiguring injuries, today 1.5 million of the roughly 6 million veterans receiving disability payments have that classification – “a nearly ninefold increase since 2021.” Part of this increase, the Post reports, is driven by a growing industry, “steeped in hucksterism and fraud,” that recruits and coaches “to pile on benefits,” through what appears to be a rubber-stamp government review system.

Meanwhile, a Wall Street Journal series has documented rampant fraud in Medicaid and Medicare. One article reportedthat health insurers “collected at least $4.3 billion over three years for [hundreds of thousands of] patients who were enrolled – and paid for – in other states.” Another article reported that “Medicare Advantage insurers diagnosed patients with conditions that triggered extra payments of $50 billion from 2019 to 2021, even though no doctor ever treated the diseases.”

Despite its crushing costs, America’s vast welfare state is not going away. Although it is more likely that fiscal catastrophe rather than courageous leadership will one day ignite necessary reforms, in the meantime we might soften that day of reckoning by addressing the bad actors sucking us dry.

Some advice to our future leaders: When you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 23:20

National Trust Sues Trump Admin Over White House Ballroom Project

National Trust Sues Trump Admin Over White House Ballroom Project

The National Trust for Historic Preservation filed a lawsuit against President Donald Trump and federal agencies on Dec. 12 over the ballroom construction project at the White House.

Construction on the project, which involves demolishing part of the executive mansion and building a 90,000-square-foot ballroom, began in September.

The project is expected to cost about $300 million, all of which is expected to be funded by private donors, including Trump.

The Trump administration released a list of the private donors in October.

The legal complaint, filed with the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, seeks a declaration that the ongoing project violates several federal statutes.

The National Trust is also asking for an injunction to halt work on the project “until the necessary federal commissions have reviewed and approved the project’s plans; adequate environmental review has been conducted; and Congress has authorized the Ballroom’s construction,” according to the complaint.

The National Trust describes itself in the complaint as a private, charitable, educational nonprofit corporation that Congress chartered in 1949. Its purpose is “to further the historic preservation policy of the United States and to promote the public’s awareness of and ability to comment on any activity that might damage or destroy our nation’s architectural heritage.” The trust has filed preservation lawsuits against several presidential administrations, the complaint said.

As Matthew Vadum details below via The Epoch Times, the lawsuit lists several federal agencies and those who head them as defendants.

The defendants are: the National Park Service, and its acting director, Jessica Bowron; John Stanwich, superintendent of the White House and President’s Park; Department of the Interior, and its secretary, Douglas Burnum; General Services Administration, and its acting administrator, Michael Rigas; and Trump.

The complaint said the demolition of the East Wing of the White House to make room for the ballroom facility began in late October without congressional approval or approval from federal commissions responsible for development oversight in the nation’s capital.

The federal government did not carry out required environmental studies, nor did it give the public an opportunity for comment, the complaint said.

“Within days, the East Wing and its colonnade—a version of which was first built on the site during the presidency of Thomas Jefferson—were completely destroyed.” Last week a large construction crane was erected on White House grounds and Trump has said that work on the project was “audible all night,” the complaint said.

“No president is legally allowed to tear down portions of the White House without any review whatsoever—not President Trump, not President Biden, and not anyone else. And no president is legally allowed to construct a ballroom on public property without giving the public the opportunity to weigh in.”

The Trump administration has maintained the ballroom project is lawful.

White House spokesman Davis Ingle said that “President Trump has full legal authority to modernize, renovate, and beautify the White House—just like all of his predecessors did.”

On its website on Oct. 21, the White House listed structural changes that 13 presidents, including Trump, have made to the White House grounds since 1902.

The complaint said it is not unusual even for minor structures planned for the White House grounds to be subjected to extensive review. For example, in 2016, the National Park Service submitted plans to the National Capital Planning Commission for a new perimeter fence around the White House. During Trump’s first term in 2019, the National Park Service filed plans with the commission about a proposal to replace a small building on the grounds with a new tennis pavilion.

The ballroom project violates several federal statutes, including the Administrative Procedure Act and the National Environmental Policy Act, the complaint argues.

The Administrative Procedure Act is a federal statute enacted in 1946 that governs administrative law procedures for federal executive departments and independent agencies. The late Sen. Pat McCarran (D-Nev.) said the law was “a bill of rights for the hundreds of thousands of Americans whose affairs are controlled or regulated” in one way or another by agencies of the federal government.

The National Environmental Policy Act regulates federal agencies’ assessments of the potential environmental impacts of projects. The statute requires federal agencies to look at the “reasonably foreseeable” impact of major decisions.

The complaint also alleges that the ballroom project violates the separation of powers and the U.S. Constitution’s property clause, which gives Congress authority over federal property.

The separation of powers is a constitutional doctrine that divides the government into three branches to prevent any single branch from accumulating too much power.

The property clause reads in part: “The Congress shall have Power to dispose of and make all needful Rules and Regulations respecting the Territory or other Property belonging to the United States.”

The Department of Justice, which represents federal officials in court, did not respond to a request for comment from The Epoch Times.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 22:45

National Trust Sues Trump Admin Over White House Ballroom Project

National Trust Sues Trump Admin Over White House Ballroom Project

The National Trust for Historic Preservation filed a lawsuit against President Donald Trump and federal agencies on Dec. 12 over the ballroom construction project at the White House.

Construction on the project, which involves demolishing part of the executive mansion and building a 90,000-square-foot ballroom, began in September.

The project is expected to cost about $300 million, all of which is expected to be funded by private donors, including Trump.

The Trump administration released a list of the private donors in October.

The legal complaint, filed with the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, seeks a declaration that the ongoing project violates several federal statutes.

The National Trust is also asking for an injunction to halt work on the project “until the necessary federal commissions have reviewed and approved the project’s plans; adequate environmental review has been conducted; and Congress has authorized the Ballroom’s construction,” according to the complaint.

The National Trust describes itself in the complaint as a private, charitable, educational nonprofit corporation that Congress chartered in 1949. Its purpose is “to further the historic preservation policy of the United States and to promote the public’s awareness of and ability to comment on any activity that might damage or destroy our nation’s architectural heritage.” The trust has filed preservation lawsuits against several presidential administrations, the complaint said.

As Matthew Vadum details below via The Epoch Times, the lawsuit lists several federal agencies and those who head them as defendants.

The defendants are: the National Park Service, and its acting director, Jessica Bowron; John Stanwich, superintendent of the White House and President’s Park; Department of the Interior, and its secretary, Douglas Burnum; General Services Administration, and its acting administrator, Michael Rigas; and Trump.

The complaint said the demolition of the East Wing of the White House to make room for the ballroom facility began in late October without congressional approval or approval from federal commissions responsible for development oversight in the nation’s capital.

The federal government did not carry out required environmental studies, nor did it give the public an opportunity for comment, the complaint said.

“Within days, the East Wing and its colonnade—a version of which was first built on the site during the presidency of Thomas Jefferson—were completely destroyed.” Last week a large construction crane was erected on White House grounds and Trump has said that work on the project was “audible all night,” the complaint said.

“No president is legally allowed to tear down portions of the White House without any review whatsoever—not President Trump, not President Biden, and not anyone else. And no president is legally allowed to construct a ballroom on public property without giving the public the opportunity to weigh in.”

The Trump administration has maintained the ballroom project is lawful.

White House spokesman Davis Ingle said that “President Trump has full legal authority to modernize, renovate, and beautify the White House—just like all of his predecessors did.”

On its website on Oct. 21, the White House listed structural changes that 13 presidents, including Trump, have made to the White House grounds since 1902.

The complaint said it is not unusual even for minor structures planned for the White House grounds to be subjected to extensive review. For example, in 2016, the National Park Service submitted plans to the National Capital Planning Commission for a new perimeter fence around the White House. During Trump’s first term in 2019, the National Park Service filed plans with the commission about a proposal to replace a small building on the grounds with a new tennis pavilion.

The ballroom project violates several federal statutes, including the Administrative Procedure Act and the National Environmental Policy Act, the complaint argues.

The Administrative Procedure Act is a federal statute enacted in 1946 that governs administrative law procedures for federal executive departments and independent agencies. The late Sen. Pat McCarran (D-Nev.) said the law was “a bill of rights for the hundreds of thousands of Americans whose affairs are controlled or regulated” in one way or another by agencies of the federal government.

The National Environmental Policy Act regulates federal agencies’ assessments of the potential environmental impacts of projects. The statute requires federal agencies to look at the “reasonably foreseeable” impact of major decisions.

The complaint also alleges that the ballroom project violates the separation of powers and the U.S. Constitution’s property clause, which gives Congress authority over federal property.

The separation of powers is a constitutional doctrine that divides the government into three branches to prevent any single branch from accumulating too much power.

The property clause reads in part: “The Congress shall have Power to dispose of and make all needful Rules and Regulations respecting the Territory or other Property belonging to the United States.”

The Department of Justice, which represents federal officials in court, did not respond to a request for comment from The Epoch Times.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 22:45

A New Republican Vision For Health Care

A New Republican Vision For Health Care

Authored by Monique Yohanan via RealClearHealth,

The shutdown dispute offered a clear view into a problem that has shaped federal health policy for more than a decade. The Affordable Care Act (ACA) directs subsidies to insurance companies rather than to individual Americans. Democrats portrayed their position as a defense of middle-class families, but the system of subsidies they have created primarily protects and enhances insurance company profits.

The current ACA framework needs amendment to make structural reform possible. Republicans should state clearly what they are for: real choices for quality medical care that is affordable, secure, transparent, and accessible. There are three systemic reforms that can get us there.

The first reform is this: Americans should have a medical wallet on their phones.  Instead of subsidies going to insurance companies, money would go into a medical wallet the patient owns and can directly control. It would resemble a Health Savings Account, but unlike current law, it wouldn’t be restricted to just those with high-deductible insurance plans. Families could use a medical wallet for routine needs or save for later expenses. Ownership changes behavior. People compare prices, judge value, and choose services based on their own priorities. None of this is possible when the subsidies bypass individuals and go directly to insurance companies.

The second reform Republicans should champion is portable coverage. Insurance should be centered around the individual, not the employer or the state. It is about freedom and security. Right now patients have neither. Americans want the freedom to make a fresh start, whether that’s a new job or a move to a new state. To do that, they need the security of stable insurance.

The ACA in its current form has made purchasing private insurance out of reach. Too often workers are stuck in jobs they would otherwise leave because losing employee-provided insurance is simply too risky and expensive. Insurance company subsidies have led to yearly rate hikes for everyone exacerbating the problem. The 9% of the population on ACA plans have been insulated from these price jumps, but the rest of the country has felt the full burden of these increases.

The third reform is essential to the first two (and to any truly functional healthcare system): full and real price transparency. In the 15 years after the ACA became law, people still do not know the exact cost of services before they receive them. Consumers should be able to shop for most medical care, but this currently is impossible. Real prices aren’t available up front, let alone whether those prices reflect high quality, high value care. While the ACA included language to improve price transparency, enforcement has at best been inconsistent. Clear prices are particularly important when consumers control their own dollars and have coverage that lets them act on that information. The Marshall-Hickenlooper bill accomplishes this, and must be a priority for passage.

Republicans have an opportunity to reframe the discussion. Right now the system benefits insurance companies and the middlemen who serve them. It’s time for a reset that puts Americans first. This can happen if we give taxpayers control over dollars intended for their care, offer them insurance that stays with them when their circumstances change, and let them know what they are paying before they receive a bill. These are practical expectations consistent with how every other sector of the economy functions.

Medical Wallet. Portable Coverage. Real Prices Up Front. These principles offer a direct and comprehensible alternative. They shift the debate away from defending a legacy architecture that has only one clear beneficiary - insurance companies - and towards a system that can make coverage affordable for everyone. The shutdown made the choice clear. Policymakers can continue to protect insurer subsidies or they can build a structure that gives people control. They cannot do both.

Monique Yohanan, MD, MPH, is a Senior Fellow for Health Policy at Independent Women.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 22:10

A New Republican Vision For Health Care

A New Republican Vision For Health Care

Authored by Monique Yohanan via RealClearHealth,

The shutdown dispute offered a clear view into a problem that has shaped federal health policy for more than a decade. The Affordable Care Act (ACA) directs subsidies to insurance companies rather than to individual Americans. Democrats portrayed their position as a defense of middle-class families, but the system of subsidies they have created primarily protects and enhances insurance company profits.

The current ACA framework needs amendment to make structural reform possible. Republicans should state clearly what they are for: real choices for quality medical care that is affordable, secure, transparent, and accessible. There are three systemic reforms that can get us there.

The first reform is this: Americans should have a medical wallet on their phones.  Instead of subsidies going to insurance companies, money would go into a medical wallet the patient owns and can directly control. It would resemble a Health Savings Account, but unlike current law, it wouldn’t be restricted to just those with high-deductible insurance plans. Families could use a medical wallet for routine needs or save for later expenses. Ownership changes behavior. People compare prices, judge value, and choose services based on their own priorities. None of this is possible when the subsidies bypass individuals and go directly to insurance companies.

The second reform Republicans should champion is portable coverage. Insurance should be centered around the individual, not the employer or the state. It is about freedom and security. Right now patients have neither. Americans want the freedom to make a fresh start, whether that’s a new job or a move to a new state. To do that, they need the security of stable insurance.

The ACA in its current form has made purchasing private insurance out of reach. Too often workers are stuck in jobs they would otherwise leave because losing employee-provided insurance is simply too risky and expensive. Insurance company subsidies have led to yearly rate hikes for everyone exacerbating the problem. The 9% of the population on ACA plans have been insulated from these price jumps, but the rest of the country has felt the full burden of these increases.

The third reform is essential to the first two (and to any truly functional healthcare system): full and real price transparency. In the 15 years after the ACA became law, people still do not know the exact cost of services before they receive them. Consumers should be able to shop for most medical care, but this currently is impossible. Real prices aren’t available up front, let alone whether those prices reflect high quality, high value care. While the ACA included language to improve price transparency, enforcement has at best been inconsistent. Clear prices are particularly important when consumers control their own dollars and have coverage that lets them act on that information. The Marshall-Hickenlooper bill accomplishes this, and must be a priority for passage.

Republicans have an opportunity to reframe the discussion. Right now the system benefits insurance companies and the middlemen who serve them. It’s time for a reset that puts Americans first. This can happen if we give taxpayers control over dollars intended for their care, offer them insurance that stays with them when their circumstances change, and let them know what they are paying before they receive a bill. These are practical expectations consistent with how every other sector of the economy functions.

Medical Wallet. Portable Coverage. Real Prices Up Front. These principles offer a direct and comprehensible alternative. They shift the debate away from defending a legacy architecture that has only one clear beneficiary - insurance companies - and towards a system that can make coverage affordable for everyone. The shutdown made the choice clear. Policymakers can continue to protect insurer subsidies or they can build a structure that gives people control. They cannot do both.

Monique Yohanan, MD, MPH, is a Senior Fellow for Health Policy at Independent Women.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 22:10

DC Pipe Bomb Arrest Raises Questions About Christopher Wray's FBI

DC Pipe Bomb Arrest Raises Questions About Christopher Wray's FBI

Authored by Julie Kelly via RealClearInvestigations,

It’s a tale of two investigations.

In one version – based on past comments by former FBI Director Christopher Wray – the arrest last week of Brian Cole Jr. as the individual who allegedly placed pipe bombs near the Washington, D.C., headquarters of the Democratic National Committee and Republican National Committee on Jan. 5, 2021, was the culmination of a dogged, five-year effort by the bureau. 

In another version, suggested by Dan Bongino, the bureau’s deputy director, FBI agents revived a long-dormant case a few months ago, quickly tracking down Cole through an existing body of evidence, not from new information. At a press conference following Cole’s arrest last week, Bongino said he assigned a fresh team of investigators out of the Washington FBI field office about two months ago that “scoured [existing evidence] over and over and over and over again.” Key pieces of evidence gathered under the previous administration – including credit card purchases of components used to construct the devices, as well as cell phone and vehicle activity from Jan. 5 – led investigators to Cole.

If Cole’s arrest proves to have solved the mystery of who planted the bombs, it presents another perhaps even more consequential question: Why did it take law enforcement so long to find him? Although there are no clear answers as of yet, Bongino’s description of the efforts that led to an arrest seems to contradict public comments and congressional testimony regarding the pipe bomb case previously provided by Wray. 

Given the case’s close connection to the highly-charged events of Jan. 6, questions are also being raised about whether Wray’s FBI essentially put the case on hold for political reasons. Such concerns stem, in part, from the bureau’s documented role in helping advance the discredited Russiagate narrative used against President Trump and its decision to remain silent as the Biden campaign dismissed Hunter Biden’s laptop as a “Russian plant” in the closing days of the 2020 campaign – despite the bureau having already verified its authenticity.

‘Every Rock’ Overturned

Although the bombs allegedly planted by Cole, who faces two federal charges relating to possession of an explosive device, never went off, law enforcement has always treated the bombs as possible instruments of mass casualties.

In the days after the Jan. 6 Capitol protest, top law enforcement officials promised to use all investigative resources necessary to track down the pipe bomb perpetrator. “Every tool, every rock is being unturned because we have to bring that person to justice,” Steven D’Antuono, head of the Washington FBI field office at the time, told reporters on Jan. 12, 2021. He also announced a $50,000 reward for anyone providing information leading to an arrest.

Acting U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Michael Sherwin, who joined D’Antuono during the presser, even warned that felony murder charges “related to the use of destructive devices” could await the pipe bomber despite the fact that the devices did not detonate.

Records show the FBI devoted massive resources to the investigation in early 2021. A team of at least 50 FBI agents collected security camera footage, interviews, apparel purchases, cell phone records, police transmissions, and other evidence, resulting in a trove of 105 million data points by April 2021. Tips poured in from the public; analysts quickly identified the components, including a kitchen timer and a steel pipe used to construct the devices.

The FBI doubled the reward and released video clips of the alleged suspect, who was wearing a hoodie, distinctive Nike sneakers, and a face mask while carrying a backpack around the Capitol Hill neighborhood.

D’Antuono made another urgent plea for the public’s help in March 2021. “We know it can be a difficult decision to report information about family, friends, or co-workers, but this is about protecting human life,” he said in a five-minute video posted on the FBI’s website. Authorities continued to insist the devices had been “viable” and capable of injuring or killing bystanders.

In June 2021, Wray again told Congress under oath that the FBI was “aggressively investigating” who had planted the devices.

Troubling Details

But even as the FBI assured the public it was conducting a vigorous investigation, journalists and Republicans in Congress were uncovering troubling details surrounding the discovery of both devices. In January 2022, Politico reported that Sen. Kamala Harris, the incoming vice president, had been inside DNC headquarters when a plain-clothes Capitol Police officer found the pipe bomb under a bush between two benches next to the driveway of the building – the same driveway Harris’ Secret Service detail had used when she arrived a few hours earlier.

That disclosure raised concerns over the Secret Service’s sweep of the premises earlier that day, as did the discovery of security camera footage showing bomb-sniffing canine units twice deployed near the spot where the device was later found. Even after the device was discovered, video shows law enforcement acting nonchalantly about the potential danger – even allowing a group of schoolchildren to walk past the area. Adding to the mystery is a Quantico report that determined the devices at both the DNC and RNC were nonoperational – a finding, if true, that is likely to be trumpeted by Cole’s lawyers.

In another odd twist, Karlin Younger, the woman who found the pipe bomb near the RNC at 12:40 p.m. on Jan. 6, worked for FirstNet - the same provider that later told the FBI the cell phone data for Jan. 5 had been corrupted and was not recoverable. According to Bongino, the cell phone data had not been corrupted and was crucial evidence that led to Cole’s arrest. 

Younger said she alerted a security guard at the RNC after she found the device sitting near a dumpster when she went to finish her laundry at 12:40 p.m. on Jan. 6. But she also told an FBI investigator the device was not near the dumpster at noon when she went to start her first load, which contradicts the official timeline that the pipe bomber planted his devices on the night of Jan. 5. An FBI report on the components of the device disproved her statement that the RNC device contained a timer set at 20 minutes – suggesting the bomb was scheduled to detonate at the exact same time Congress convened at 1:00 p.m. to certify the 2020 election.

Demand for More Answers

Rep. Barry Loudermilk, chairman of a new select subcommittee on Jan. 6, wants more answers on the circumstances surrounding both discoveries. This week, he sent a letter to Younger asking her to sit for a transcribed interview before his new select subcommittee on January 6. He has previously asked the director of the Secret Service to make the agents on Harris’ security detail that day available for questioning. Loudermilk has also said he plans to explore the destruction of evidence – including the deletion of Secret Services text messages before and on January 6 and of video images from the DNC and RNC on Jan. 6. “As we go and looking for video on January 6th to see did anybody go back to these locations, that footage doesn't exist anymore,” he told podcaster Benny Johnson. “We have January 5th video, but we were told no one preserved January 6th. … This has inhibited our investigation.”

The revelation of those curious circumstances as the FBI investigation dragged on put Wray on the defensive. He refused to discuss details about the investigation with Republican Rep. Thomas Massie during a 2023 House Judiciary Committee hearing and would not confirm whether the FBI interviewed the officer who found the DNC device.

During a heated 2023 exchange with Rep. Eli Crane, an Arizona Republican, Wray said, “We [the FBI] have an entire dedicated team focused specifically on this investigation.” 

Wray also told the Arizona Republican, which had challenged him to explain the successful roundup of hundreds of J6 protesters but not the individual responsible for a potential “mass casualty” event that day, “We’ve done thousands of interviews, we’ve visited thousands of residents and businesses, viewed millions of pieces of data, there’s something like 39,000 video files, and we’ve assessed like 500 or so tips. We’ve done extensive public publicity, we’ve increased the reward money.” Wray further claimed that the FBI laboratory, weapons of mass destruction unit, technology division, and “cellular analysis team” were still hot on the pipe bomber’s trail. “I, as much as anybody, would like to see it solved.”

In a 2023 interview with Fox News’ Bret Baier, Wray said the FBI had devoted “loads” of resources to the investigation and that he had “enormous confidence” in his team assigned to the pipe bomb case.

But when Wray retired shortly before President Trump took office for the second time, a full four years after the launch of the investigation, the pipe bomb case remained unsolved. 

More Headscratchers

Others doubt Wray’s assurances that this case remained a priority on his watch. A January 2025 update on the pipe bomb matter overseen by Loudermilk and Massie asserted, based on law enforcement correspondence, that interest in the case waned as early as one month after the Capitol protest. “By the end of February 2021, the FBI began diverting resources away from the pipe bomb investigation,” the report stated, citing as a reference a Feb. 2021 email from an unidentified Capitol Police official. “One possible explanation for the reduction in resources is that the number of credible leads began to decline, no longer requiring as many special agents to cover the workload.”

Perhaps the biggest headscratcher – how the new team of investigators used cell phone data that D’Antuono claimed had been corrupted – demands answers. In sworn testimony to Congress, D’Antuono had told lawmakers that the FBI “did a complete geofence” for the night of Jan. 5 but that “some data was corrupted by one of the providers.” That assertion appears to be false.

Congress appears interested in determining how Wray’s FBI came up empty-handed. A House Judiciary Committee spokesman told RCI “everything is on the table” in terms of getting answers from the former director about the pipe bomb investigation. Efforts to reach Wray and D’Antuono for comment were unsuccessful.

But the public is entitled to know whether the investigation begun during Wray’s tenure was simply a case that took five years to bring to fruition – or whether it is another example of a federal investigation compromised by political considerations.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 21:00

DC Pipe Bomb Arrest Raises Questions About Christopher Wray's FBI

DC Pipe Bomb Arrest Raises Questions About Christopher Wray's FBI

Authored by Julie Kelly via RealClearInvestigations,

It’s a tale of two investigations.

In one version – based on past comments by former FBI Director Christopher Wray – the arrest last week of Brian Cole Jr. as the individual who allegedly placed pipe bombs near the Washington, D.C., headquarters of the Democratic National Committee and Republican National Committee on Jan. 5, 2021, was the culmination of a dogged, five-year effort by the bureau. 

In another version, suggested by Dan Bongino, the bureau’s deputy director, FBI agents revived a long-dormant case a few months ago, quickly tracking down Cole through an existing body of evidence, not from new information. At a press conference following Cole’s arrest last week, Bongino said he assigned a fresh team of investigators out of the Washington FBI field office about two months ago that “scoured [existing evidence] over and over and over and over again.” Key pieces of evidence gathered under the previous administration – including credit card purchases of components used to construct the devices, as well as cell phone and vehicle activity from Jan. 5 – led investigators to Cole.

If Cole’s arrest proves to have solved the mystery of who planted the bombs, it presents another perhaps even more consequential question: Why did it take law enforcement so long to find him? Although there are no clear answers as of yet, Bongino’s description of the efforts that led to an arrest seems to contradict public comments and congressional testimony regarding the pipe bomb case previously provided by Wray. 

Given the case’s close connection to the highly-charged events of Jan. 6, questions are also being raised about whether Wray’s FBI essentially put the case on hold for political reasons. Such concerns stem, in part, from the bureau’s documented role in helping advance the discredited Russiagate narrative used against President Trump and its decision to remain silent as the Biden campaign dismissed Hunter Biden’s laptop as a “Russian plant” in the closing days of the 2020 campaign – despite the bureau having already verified its authenticity.

‘Every Rock’ Overturned

Although the bombs allegedly planted by Cole, who faces two federal charges relating to possession of an explosive device, never went off, law enforcement has always treated the bombs as possible instruments of mass casualties.

In the days after the Jan. 6 Capitol protest, top law enforcement officials promised to use all investigative resources necessary to track down the pipe bomb perpetrator. “Every tool, every rock is being unturned because we have to bring that person to justice,” Steven D’Antuono, head of the Washington FBI field office at the time, told reporters on Jan. 12, 2021. He also announced a $50,000 reward for anyone providing information leading to an arrest.

Acting U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Michael Sherwin, who joined D’Antuono during the presser, even warned that felony murder charges “related to the use of destructive devices” could await the pipe bomber despite the fact that the devices did not detonate.

Records show the FBI devoted massive resources to the investigation in early 2021. A team of at least 50 FBI agents collected security camera footage, interviews, apparel purchases, cell phone records, police transmissions, and other evidence, resulting in a trove of 105 million data points by April 2021. Tips poured in from the public; analysts quickly identified the components, including a kitchen timer and a steel pipe used to construct the devices.

The FBI doubled the reward and released video clips of the alleged suspect, who was wearing a hoodie, distinctive Nike sneakers, and a face mask while carrying a backpack around the Capitol Hill neighborhood.

D’Antuono made another urgent plea for the public’s help in March 2021. “We know it can be a difficult decision to report information about family, friends, or co-workers, but this is about protecting human life,” he said in a five-minute video posted on the FBI’s website. Authorities continued to insist the devices had been “viable” and capable of injuring or killing bystanders.

In June 2021, Wray again told Congress under oath that the FBI was “aggressively investigating” who had planted the devices.

Troubling Details

But even as the FBI assured the public it was conducting a vigorous investigation, journalists and Republicans in Congress were uncovering troubling details surrounding the discovery of both devices. In January 2022, Politico reported that Sen. Kamala Harris, the incoming vice president, had been inside DNC headquarters when a plain-clothes Capitol Police officer found the pipe bomb under a bush between two benches next to the driveway of the building – the same driveway Harris’ Secret Service detail had used when she arrived a few hours earlier.

That disclosure raised concerns over the Secret Service’s sweep of the premises earlier that day, as did the discovery of security camera footage showing bomb-sniffing canine units twice deployed near the spot where the device was later found. Even after the device was discovered, video shows law enforcement acting nonchalantly about the potential danger – even allowing a group of schoolchildren to walk past the area. Adding to the mystery is a Quantico report that determined the devices at both the DNC and RNC were nonoperational – a finding, if true, that is likely to be trumpeted by Cole’s lawyers.

In another odd twist, Karlin Younger, the woman who found the pipe bomb near the RNC at 12:40 p.m. on Jan. 6, worked for FirstNet - the same provider that later told the FBI the cell phone data for Jan. 5 had been corrupted and was not recoverable. According to Bongino, the cell phone data had not been corrupted and was crucial evidence that led to Cole’s arrest. 

Younger said she alerted a security guard at the RNC after she found the device sitting near a dumpster when she went to finish her laundry at 12:40 p.m. on Jan. 6. But she also told an FBI investigator the device was not near the dumpster at noon when she went to start her first load, which contradicts the official timeline that the pipe bomber planted his devices on the night of Jan. 5. An FBI report on the components of the device disproved her statement that the RNC device contained a timer set at 20 minutes – suggesting the bomb was scheduled to detonate at the exact same time Congress convened at 1:00 p.m. to certify the 2020 election.

Demand for More Answers

Rep. Barry Loudermilk, chairman of a new select subcommittee on Jan. 6, wants more answers on the circumstances surrounding both discoveries. This week, he sent a letter to Younger asking her to sit for a transcribed interview before his new select subcommittee on January 6. He has previously asked the director of the Secret Service to make the agents on Harris’ security detail that day available for questioning. Loudermilk has also said he plans to explore the destruction of evidence – including the deletion of Secret Services text messages before and on January 6 and of video images from the DNC and RNC on Jan. 6. “As we go and looking for video on January 6th to see did anybody go back to these locations, that footage doesn't exist anymore,” he told podcaster Benny Johnson. “We have January 5th video, but we were told no one preserved January 6th. … This has inhibited our investigation.”

The revelation of those curious circumstances as the FBI investigation dragged on put Wray on the defensive. He refused to discuss details about the investigation with Republican Rep. Thomas Massie during a 2023 House Judiciary Committee hearing and would not confirm whether the FBI interviewed the officer who found the DNC device.

During a heated 2023 exchange with Rep. Eli Crane, an Arizona Republican, Wray said, “We [the FBI] have an entire dedicated team focused specifically on this investigation.” 

Wray also told the Arizona Republican, which had challenged him to explain the successful roundup of hundreds of J6 protesters but not the individual responsible for a potential “mass casualty” event that day, “We’ve done thousands of interviews, we’ve visited thousands of residents and businesses, viewed millions of pieces of data, there’s something like 39,000 video files, and we’ve assessed like 500 or so tips. We’ve done extensive public publicity, we’ve increased the reward money.” Wray further claimed that the FBI laboratory, weapons of mass destruction unit, technology division, and “cellular analysis team” were still hot on the pipe bomber’s trail. “I, as much as anybody, would like to see it solved.”

In a 2023 interview with Fox News’ Bret Baier, Wray said the FBI had devoted “loads” of resources to the investigation and that he had “enormous confidence” in his team assigned to the pipe bomb case.

But when Wray retired shortly before President Trump took office for the second time, a full four years after the launch of the investigation, the pipe bomb case remained unsolved. 

More Headscratchers

Others doubt Wray’s assurances that this case remained a priority on his watch. A January 2025 update on the pipe bomb matter overseen by Loudermilk and Massie asserted, based on law enforcement correspondence, that interest in the case waned as early as one month after the Capitol protest. “By the end of February 2021, the FBI began diverting resources away from the pipe bomb investigation,” the report stated, citing as a reference a Feb. 2021 email from an unidentified Capitol Police official. “One possible explanation for the reduction in resources is that the number of credible leads began to decline, no longer requiring as many special agents to cover the workload.”

Perhaps the biggest headscratcher – how the new team of investigators used cell phone data that D’Antuono claimed had been corrupted – demands answers. In sworn testimony to Congress, D’Antuono had told lawmakers that the FBI “did a complete geofence” for the night of Jan. 5 but that “some data was corrupted by one of the providers.” That assertion appears to be false.

Congress appears interested in determining how Wray’s FBI came up empty-handed. A House Judiciary Committee spokesman told RCI “everything is on the table” in terms of getting answers from the former director about the pipe bomb investigation. Efforts to reach Wray and D’Antuono for comment were unsuccessful.

But the public is entitled to know whether the investigation begun during Wray’s tenure was simply a case that took five years to bring to fruition – or whether it is another example of a federal investigation compromised by political considerations.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 21:00

ICE Announces Arrest Of 400 Illegal Immigrants In Minnesota

ICE Announces Arrest Of 400 Illegal Immigrants In Minnesota

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

More than 400 illegal immigrants have been arrested in Minnesota by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) as part of Operation Metro Surge, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said in a statement on Dec. 12.

Federal agents move away protestors in front of Immigration and Customs Enforcement offices in Portland, Ore., on Oct. 4, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

Operation Metro Surge targets the “worst of the worst” illegal immigrants who had flocked to Minnesota, assuming the state’s “sanctuary” politicians would protect them, DHS said.

Sanctuary jurisdictions are places in the country where local or state officials refuse to enforce federal immigration laws or cooperate with federal immigration authorities. Minnesota is one of such states, according to an Aug. 5 statement from the Department of Justice (DOJ).

Among the arrested were a Burmese national convicted of third-degree criminal sexual conduct using force or coercion, a Somali convicted of robbery, a Laotian convicted of first-degree criminal sexual conduct with a child under 13, and an Ecuadorian national who was previously arrested for assaulting a police officer, DHS said.

DHS Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs Tricia McLaughlin accused Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, who have been vocal against ICE operations, of “fail[ing] to protect the people of Minnesota.”

They let these monsters and child predators roam free,” McLaughlin said. “Thanks to our brave law enforcement, Minnesota is safer with these thugs off their streets.”

The Epoch Times reached out to Walz and Frey for comments and did not receive a response by publication time.

The arrests come as immigration enforcement officers continue to face a surge in attacks nationwide.

On Dec. 12, DHS said an ICE officer was attacked by a criminal illegal immigrant in Tullos, Louisiana, who “savagely bit the officer’s hand while resisting arrest.”

The bite broke through the skin and drew blood, the agency said, while calling on politicians in sanctuary jurisdictions and media to stop calling for resistance against ICE enforcement.

DHS law enforcement is facing a 1,150 percent increase in assaults against them and an 8,000 percent increase in death threats. This is the reality of what our ICE officers are facing every day as they go to work to simply do their job and enforce the law,” McLaughlin said.

“Many of these assaults, including biting and vehicle rammings, are happening as a direct result of sanctuary politicians encouraging illegal aliens to evade arrest.”

There has been pushback from officials in Minneapolis and Minnesota over the federal government’s enforcement operations.

In Minneapolis, the City Council unanimously approved a stronger version of its “sanctuary city” ordinance on Dec. 11 amid the federal government’s illegal immigration crackdown.

Community members gather for a public hearing as the Minneapolis City Council considers strengthening the city’s separation ordinance barring cooperation with ICE in Minneapolis, Minn., on Dec. 9, 2025. Jenn Ackerman for The Epoch Times

Updates to the “separation ordinance,” which bans local police from assisting federal immigration-enforcement efforts and has been in effect for 22 years, were passed by the council, 13-0. There are no Republicans on the council.

During the meeting, Councilmember Jason Chavez, whose parents came from Mexico, said, “Our undocumented immigrants as a whole are being arrested, detained, deported, and not being able to come home.”

Chavez vowed to “continue to resist this Trump administration.”

Meanwhile, Minnesota Gov. Walz wrote a letter to DHS Secretary Kristi Noem on Dec. 11, saying he has serious concerns about ICE operations allegedly resulting in “multiple arrests of United States citizens” in Minneapolis.

“The forcefulness, lack of communication, and unlawful practices displayed by your agents will not be tolerated in Minnesota,” he wrote.

DHS criticized the letter in a Dec. 12 X post, highlighting that there is a “growing and disturbing trend” of agitators and rioters obstructing law enforcement during the arrest of illegal immigrants.

The department highlighted the surge in attacks against officers and warned that obstructing law enforcement is not a protest but a crime.

“Secretary Noem has been clear: if you lay a hand on a law enforcement officer, you will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law,” DHS said.

“Instead of trying to spread misinformation, @GovTimWalz should focus on protecting American lives and thanking the brave men and women of DHS law enforcement who are risking their lives to make communities in his state safer.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 19:50

ICE Announces Arrest Of 400 Illegal Immigrants In Minnesota

ICE Announces Arrest Of 400 Illegal Immigrants In Minnesota

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

More than 400 illegal immigrants have been arrested in Minnesota by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) as part of Operation Metro Surge, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said in a statement on Dec. 12.

Federal agents move away protestors in front of Immigration and Customs Enforcement offices in Portland, Ore., on Oct. 4, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

Operation Metro Surge targets the “worst of the worst” illegal immigrants who had flocked to Minnesota, assuming the state’s “sanctuary” politicians would protect them, DHS said.

Sanctuary jurisdictions are places in the country where local or state officials refuse to enforce federal immigration laws or cooperate with federal immigration authorities. Minnesota is one of such states, according to an Aug. 5 statement from the Department of Justice (DOJ).

Among the arrested were a Burmese national convicted of third-degree criminal sexual conduct using force or coercion, a Somali convicted of robbery, a Laotian convicted of first-degree criminal sexual conduct with a child under 13, and an Ecuadorian national who was previously arrested for assaulting a police officer, DHS said.

DHS Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs Tricia McLaughlin accused Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, who have been vocal against ICE operations, of “fail[ing] to protect the people of Minnesota.”

They let these monsters and child predators roam free,” McLaughlin said. “Thanks to our brave law enforcement, Minnesota is safer with these thugs off their streets.”

The Epoch Times reached out to Walz and Frey for comments and did not receive a response by publication time.

The arrests come as immigration enforcement officers continue to face a surge in attacks nationwide.

On Dec. 12, DHS said an ICE officer was attacked by a criminal illegal immigrant in Tullos, Louisiana, who “savagely bit the officer’s hand while resisting arrest.”

The bite broke through the skin and drew blood, the agency said, while calling on politicians in sanctuary jurisdictions and media to stop calling for resistance against ICE enforcement.

DHS law enforcement is facing a 1,150 percent increase in assaults against them and an 8,000 percent increase in death threats. This is the reality of what our ICE officers are facing every day as they go to work to simply do their job and enforce the law,” McLaughlin said.

“Many of these assaults, including biting and vehicle rammings, are happening as a direct result of sanctuary politicians encouraging illegal aliens to evade arrest.”

There has been pushback from officials in Minneapolis and Minnesota over the federal government’s enforcement operations.

In Minneapolis, the City Council unanimously approved a stronger version of its “sanctuary city” ordinance on Dec. 11 amid the federal government’s illegal immigration crackdown.

Community members gather for a public hearing as the Minneapolis City Council considers strengthening the city’s separation ordinance barring cooperation with ICE in Minneapolis, Minn., on Dec. 9, 2025. Jenn Ackerman for The Epoch Times

Updates to the “separation ordinance,” which bans local police from assisting federal immigration-enforcement efforts and has been in effect for 22 years, were passed by the council, 13-0. There are no Republicans on the council.

During the meeting, Councilmember Jason Chavez, whose parents came from Mexico, said, “Our undocumented immigrants as a whole are being arrested, detained, deported, and not being able to come home.”

Chavez vowed to “continue to resist this Trump administration.”

Meanwhile, Minnesota Gov. Walz wrote a letter to DHS Secretary Kristi Noem on Dec. 11, saying he has serious concerns about ICE operations allegedly resulting in “multiple arrests of United States citizens” in Minneapolis.

“The forcefulness, lack of communication, and unlawful practices displayed by your agents will not be tolerated in Minnesota,” he wrote.

DHS criticized the letter in a Dec. 12 X post, highlighting that there is a “growing and disturbing trend” of agitators and rioters obstructing law enforcement during the arrest of illegal immigrants.

The department highlighted the surge in attacks against officers and warned that obstructing law enforcement is not a protest but a crime.

“Secretary Noem has been clear: if you lay a hand on a law enforcement officer, you will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law,” DHS said.

“Instead of trying to spread misinformation, @GovTimWalz should focus on protecting American lives and thanking the brave men and women of DHS law enforcement who are risking their lives to make communities in his state safer.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 19:50

Santa Vs The Grinch, Diets, & QE

Santa Vs The Grinch, Diets, & QE

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Santa vs The Grinch, Diets, & qe

The week ended with a bang.

At Academy’s Holiday Party, the Marines pulled out all the stops to win the annual “service song” contest (they actually brought out instruments, with Dakota leading the charge on the trumpet).

We rolled (like the Army’s rolling along song), straight into Bloomberg TV Friday morning, where Academy was the guest host for the entire 6am hour. Had some interesting guests on the Geopolitical/European side, a bond portfolio PM, and an analyst who covers Disney (I abstained from asking him a question as I just didn’t think I could contribute usefully to the Disney-OpenAI deal discussion).

Santa vs The Grinch

Post-FOMC, markets rallied making it appear like the Santa rally was well underway. We will be circling back on a couple of things mentioned in our Quick Take on the FOMC. Starting with the final line from that report – the Oracle earnings call could be market moving.

Oracle struggled the next day, but markets fought back from their lows, with some serious “rotation” occurring. But more “questionable” news from the chip and data center/AI space weighed on markets again on Friday, this time, without a late-day stick save.

We use the word “questionable” because on the one hand, we heard phrases like:

  • Slight miss, overall solid, decent guidance, new clients added, backlogs, etc.

All phrases that you would not normally associate with individual stocks down double digits or even the Nasdaq 100 down 2%. Clearly expectations are high and valuations still require very strong numbers/guidance for bullishness on data centers/AI to remain intact.

Since November 20th, we’ve seen the Nasdaq 100 lag (still up, but lagging) while the Russell 2000 has been the star of the show.

We pick that date because that was the day we started to see the Fed hawks capitulate – the Santa Rally Recipe.

We argued that breaking the 100-Day Moving Average (DMA) made the Fed “see the light” and turn noticeably dovish (the probability of a rate cut jumped from the 30s to 90s in a matter of days).

We are trading right around the 50-DMA right now on the Nasdaq 100. It could still act as resistance, which we should see Sunday night/Monday morning. But if it breaks through there, the 100-DMA is clearly in play. What is concerning is that it was quite clear to many that the Fed played a crucial role in defending the 100-DMA. Will they do it again if we get there? Possibly, but how? The next meeting is quite far off, by market standards.

We will be watching some of these technical levels closely as it seems that not only is the “free money” gone, but the hurdle to creating further market cap gains has ratcheted higher. We define “free” money as things like announcing $X in spending on AI/data centers and being rewarded with a market cap increase far in excess of $X.

So far, the Grinch hasn’t caught up to the people in Weeville (Russell 2000), but it seems impossible to believe that further weakness here won’t bring down all the markets:

  • The stocks just make up such a large portion of the big indices, and it will be difficult for even the Russell 2000, with little actual overlap, to fight the trend. The outperformance can continue, but would likely all be negative.

  • The industry makes up such a huge part of the economic story including spending and the wealth effect (more than jobs but there are jobs too). It is difficult to see how markets can do well (though rate cut expectations, which I think are too low, will increase with more cuts coming sooner than is currently being priced in).

More “technical” than usual, but since we “survived” the Fed and the Santa rally seemed back in play, positioning (which goes hand in hand with technicals) may be offsides again coming into a period of low levels of true liquidity.

Which Brings Us to Diets

I cannot remember the last time there was this much chatter about single name CDS, with Oracle’s CDS leading the way. Not only did we end the TV interview on Friday talking about that, but we also spent some time on Friday helping Barron’s understand CDS, in relation to big tech and data centers.

We mentioned Debt Diets a few weeks ago, and want to highlight it again. It was our “Theme for 2019.” At the time, many corporations were seeing their stocks come under pressure, largely due to strains in the credit market for their names. It is “easy” for corporate leadership to ignore the debt markets when their stock price is doing really well. You can probably even give credit markets only a cursory glance if your stock is facing some pressure, but credit is just a side story. But when credit becomes a main part of the story – it is difficult to ignore. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing. It might sound bad, but it doesn’t have to be.

When Credit Leads the Way

This chart, for me, explains why a “debt diet” may be on the way (and yes, we will explain what we mean by that, and why it isn’t necessarily bad, and follows our end of “free” money narrative).

It is possible that I’m “grasping” at straws, but from the middle of September to the middle of October, the credit market and stock market were not “beating the same drum.” Yes, the stock market faced some selling pressure, but it also had a solid rebound. The credit market basically widened every day during that period.

Now they are back to moving in the same direction and it seems almost impossible to ignore the performance of the credit market when making a decision on the stock market.

Which brings us to the Debt Diet.

  • Companies can alter their spending plans.

    • Probably unnecessary here, but for the space as a whole, it might be a good time for CEOs and CFOs to explain their spending plans more clearly. To, not necessarily, pay “homage” to creditors, but make sure creditors understand their concerns are being taken into account.

    • Clarity, especially as to what might make them cautious on building more (maybe some rough alignment of building with profits and positive cash flow in mind, versus an almost “build it and they will come” mentality).

  • Companies do not need to be “afraid” of creditors, but a clearer recognition of their importance to your future might be in order.

A lot can be done without changing the plans today. I see a lot of ways that clarification and some identification of issues or trends that might change spending plans could go a long way towards improving spreads and leaving the market hungry for more issuance in 2026 and beyond!

Debt Diets are Manageable – An AI Diet Might Not Be

So far, this seems more like a “debt diet” type of situation in the data center space. The news that has come out doesn’t seem to have changed the overall narrative (backlogs, new clients, etc. all seem to argue this is more about a change in valuations than a meaningful change in trend for the industry).

However, I am nervous that we could see an AI Diet developing:

  • How much are companies budgeting for AI spend next year? The following year? Just like the industry itself had “free” money for a period of time, it was impossible for any corporation in America to do anything but spend more on AI. As companies have now been using AI for 2 years or more, are they all seeing the benefits they thought they paid for? Certainly, some are and they are probably rejoicing in their spending. But everyone? Especially in an economy, where away from certain industries (our little i-shaped view of the economy), we are seeing little growth. For now, I think the spending from corporate America continues, but it will be possibly “abated” as opposed to unabated.

  • Chips and China. The admin is comfortable selling a greater variety of chips to a greater variety of nations (China being the most important, though I’d argue that the Middle East isn’t far behind in importance). The question is whether China wants chips in the quantity that would fuel real revenue growth? Or is China willing to forego some quality today, in an effort to continue to bootstrap their own chip industry and make them more competitive with the top chips being designed/produced by U.S. companies and TSMC? I think this is more about constraining the upside rather than creating downside risk to spending on U.S. chips, but I have this nagging concern that “we” may be underestimating the resources and skills that China is devoting to this.

  • Electricity. If there is one thing our Macro, Structured Products, and Sustainable Finance teams agree on – it is the importance of electricity in today’s economy and the risk that we cannot generate electrons quickly and efficiently enough to satisfy the needs of industry going forward. This “molecules to electrons” has been a theme of ours for quite some time and fits perfectly into our ProSec™ (Production for Security) framework. If you were starting to think, wonder, or even hope that we could go an entire T-Report without mentioning ProSec™, we had to disappoint you.

    • If you have not read Stav Gaon’s work on data centers, I highly recommend you do. You can find his work under the Securitized Products Research & Strategy tab on Academy’s website. You can scroll and pick through his various pieces on data centers.

I think the Debt Diet is real and not necessarily bad. I don’t think the AI Diet is real, but since it is very bad if it occurs, it seemed worth at least highlighting that risk in our “diet” framework.

qe

Is the $40 billion of Federal Reserve purchases QE or a non-event? Or somewhere in between?

It “depends.” Clearly the Fed had to address some issues within the front end of the yield curve. SOFR, as a secured rate, should not be more expensive than unsecured rates. That is embarrassing, and has some small economic consequences. This is NOTHING like elevated LIBOR. When we have problems on interbank lending or even in the commercial paper markets, we can worry. This is much more of an issue with regulations, regulatory capital, and return on capital. The rules have been created in such a way, that it isn’t particularly economic (or even feasible) for the banking industry to price and trade SOFR at levels where “it should trade.” So, to the extent these purchases are “temporary” and designed to get us through year end and “clean things up” (and then they can be reduced or eliminated), it isn’t really QE or even qe. Bitcoin does as good of a job as any asset class at “sniffing” out balance sheet expansion and it has been moderately happy, but not giddy, since the announcement was made.

If the Treasury decides to take advantage of this by reducing issuance of longer-dated bonds, to sell more T-Bills to the Fed, and does this month after month, it starts to look a lot more like QE.

For now, I’ll be in the “qe” camp and that this is more of a “fix,” than in the full-on QE camp, but I’m not sure why Treasury wouldn’t try to make this work a lot more like QE than maybe even Powell intended?

I continue to believe that “we ain’t seen nothing yet” in terms of how the admin and Treasury will work with the Fed to achieve 3% or lower on the front end and a 3-handle (under 4%) on 10s.

At 4.18% on 10s and 2s vs 10s at 66 (the highest since February 2022), I’m tempted to be buying 10s and putting on flatteners. But, it is probably a bit early, as the market doesn’t feel that healthy, and I think that we need Japanese yields to really stabilize and Europe to make it clear on whether they are going to spend aggressively, or seize Russia’s frozen reserves, or let the 5% defense spending fizzle, before we can get too comfortable on U.S. rates.

It does seem ”curious” that Goolsbee went from dissenting on Wednesday (wanted no cut) to highlighting that he thinks there will be more cuts next year than others! I wonder what sort of “bollocking” he got from the admin between the FOMC meeting and his speaking opportunity?

Bottom Line

I am not sure how we got to the “bottom line” without mentioning Tuesday’s jobs data. The release date is highly unusual and I certainly don’t understand how the government shutdown will affect the report. Since it is delayed, the response rate could be higher, but maybe much of the preliminary work wasn’t done?

The consensus is for 50k jobs to be created. I’d be leaning towards the under. I do think a weak jobs report would help bonds. I agree with Goolsbee that the Fed will cut sooner and more aggressively than is priced in, but it won’t help the long end much (just yet) and won’t help stocks – as the “slowdown” story (despite the Fed raising GDP expectations for next year) will weigh on stocks.

One thing I can tell you with certainty is that despite all this talk of diets, and probably because of the holidays and travel, I’m very reluctant and even a bit scared to step on a scale.

Have a great week, but expect more chop and volatility coming into year end and the start of next year, which should be a gangbuster one for debt issuance, and may well make credit markets interesting to focus on again! I’ve almost missed the fact that in the past year, where everything in credit seemed so dull (until the latter half when the financing needs started to hit home), we also saw the first signs of unexpected problems in private credit.

With all that is going on in the world, and U.S. service members at risk, it was fun to sit back and watch a great Army-Navy football game

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 18:25

Santa Vs The Grinch, Diets, & QE

Santa Vs The Grinch, Diets, & QE

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Santa vs The Grinch, Diets, & qe

The week ended with a bang.

At Academy’s Holiday Party, the Marines pulled out all the stops to win the annual “service song” contest (they actually brought out instruments, with Dakota leading the charge on the trumpet).

We rolled (like the Army’s rolling along song), straight into Bloomberg TV Friday morning, where Academy was the guest host for the entire 6am hour. Had some interesting guests on the Geopolitical/European side, a bond portfolio PM, and an analyst who covers Disney (I abstained from asking him a question as I just didn’t think I could contribute usefully to the Disney-OpenAI deal discussion).

Santa vs The Grinch

Post-FOMC, markets rallied making it appear like the Santa rally was well underway. We will be circling back on a couple of things mentioned in our Quick Take on the FOMC. Starting with the final line from that report – the Oracle earnings call could be market moving.

Oracle struggled the next day, but markets fought back from their lows, with some serious “rotation” occurring. But more “questionable” news from the chip and data center/AI space weighed on markets again on Friday, this time, without a late-day stick save.

We use the word “questionable” because on the one hand, we heard phrases like:

  • Slight miss, overall solid, decent guidance, new clients added, backlogs, etc.

All phrases that you would not normally associate with individual stocks down double digits or even the Nasdaq 100 down 2%. Clearly expectations are high and valuations still require very strong numbers/guidance for bullishness on data centers/AI to remain intact.

Since November 20th, we’ve seen the Nasdaq 100 lag (still up, but lagging) while the Russell 2000 has been the star of the show.

We pick that date because that was the day we started to see the Fed hawks capitulate – the Santa Rally Recipe.

We argued that breaking the 100-Day Moving Average (DMA) made the Fed “see the light” and turn noticeably dovish (the probability of a rate cut jumped from the 30s to 90s in a matter of days).

We are trading right around the 50-DMA right now on the Nasdaq 100. It could still act as resistance, which we should see Sunday night/Monday morning. But if it breaks through there, the 100-DMA is clearly in play. What is concerning is that it was quite clear to many that the Fed played a crucial role in defending the 100-DMA. Will they do it again if we get there? Possibly, but how? The next meeting is quite far off, by market standards.

We will be watching some of these technical levels closely as it seems that not only is the “free money” gone, but the hurdle to creating further market cap gains has ratcheted higher. We define “free” money as things like announcing $X in spending on AI/data centers and being rewarded with a market cap increase far in excess of $X.

So far, the Grinch hasn’t caught up to the people in Weeville (Russell 2000), but it seems impossible to believe that further weakness here won’t bring down all the markets:

  • The stocks just make up such a large portion of the big indices, and it will be difficult for even the Russell 2000, with little actual overlap, to fight the trend. The outperformance can continue, but would likely all be negative.

  • The industry makes up such a huge part of the economic story including spending and the wealth effect (more than jobs but there are jobs too). It is difficult to see how markets can do well (though rate cut expectations, which I think are too low, will increase with more cuts coming sooner than is currently being priced in).

More “technical” than usual, but since we “survived” the Fed and the Santa rally seemed back in play, positioning (which goes hand in hand with technicals) may be offsides again coming into a period of low levels of true liquidity.

Which Brings Us to Diets

I cannot remember the last time there was this much chatter about single name CDS, with Oracle’s CDS leading the way. Not only did we end the TV interview on Friday talking about that, but we also spent some time on Friday helping Barron’s understand CDS, in relation to big tech and data centers.

We mentioned Debt Diets a few weeks ago, and want to highlight it again. It was our “Theme for 2019.” At the time, many corporations were seeing their stocks come under pressure, largely due to strains in the credit market for their names. It is “easy” for corporate leadership to ignore the debt markets when their stock price is doing really well. You can probably even give credit markets only a cursory glance if your stock is facing some pressure, but credit is just a side story. But when credit becomes a main part of the story – it is difficult to ignore. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing. It might sound bad, but it doesn’t have to be.

When Credit Leads the Way

This chart, for me, explains why a “debt diet” may be on the way (and yes, we will explain what we mean by that, and why it isn’t necessarily bad, and follows our end of “free” money narrative).

It is possible that I’m “grasping” at straws, but from the middle of September to the middle of October, the credit market and stock market were not “beating the same drum.” Yes, the stock market faced some selling pressure, but it also had a solid rebound. The credit market basically widened every day during that period.

Now they are back to moving in the same direction and it seems almost impossible to ignore the performance of the credit market when making a decision on the stock market.

Which brings us to the Debt Diet.

  • Companies can alter their spending plans.

    • Probably unnecessary here, but for the space as a whole, it might be a good time for CEOs and CFOs to explain their spending plans more clearly. To, not necessarily, pay “homage” to creditors, but make sure creditors understand their concerns are being taken into account.

    • Clarity, especially as to what might make them cautious on building more (maybe some rough alignment of building with profits and positive cash flow in mind, versus an almost “build it and they will come” mentality).

  • Companies do not need to be “afraid” of creditors, but a clearer recognition of their importance to your future might be in order.

A lot can be done without changing the plans today. I see a lot of ways that clarification and some identification of issues or trends that might change spending plans could go a long way towards improving spreads and leaving the market hungry for more issuance in 2026 and beyond!

Debt Diets are Manageable – An AI Diet Might Not Be

So far, this seems more like a “debt diet” type of situation in the data center space. The news that has come out doesn’t seem to have changed the overall narrative (backlogs, new clients, etc. all seem to argue this is more about a change in valuations than a meaningful change in trend for the industry).

However, I am nervous that we could see an AI Diet developing:

  • How much are companies budgeting for AI spend next year? The following year? Just like the industry itself had “free” money for a period of time, it was impossible for any corporation in America to do anything but spend more on AI. As companies have now been using AI for 2 years or more, are they all seeing the benefits they thought they paid for? Certainly, some are and they are probably rejoicing in their spending. But everyone? Especially in an economy, where away from certain industries (our little i-shaped view of the economy), we are seeing little growth. For now, I think the spending from corporate America continues, but it will be possibly “abated” as opposed to unabated.

  • Chips and China. The admin is comfortable selling a greater variety of chips to a greater variety of nations (China being the most important, though I’d argue that the Middle East isn’t far behind in importance). The question is whether China wants chips in the quantity that would fuel real revenue growth? Or is China willing to forego some quality today, in an effort to continue to bootstrap their own chip industry and make them more competitive with the top chips being designed/produced by U.S. companies and TSMC? I think this is more about constraining the upside rather than creating downside risk to spending on U.S. chips, but I have this nagging concern that “we” may be underestimating the resources and skills that China is devoting to this.

  • Electricity. If there is one thing our Macro, Structured Products, and Sustainable Finance teams agree on – it is the importance of electricity in today’s economy and the risk that we cannot generate electrons quickly and efficiently enough to satisfy the needs of industry going forward. This “molecules to electrons” has been a theme of ours for quite some time and fits perfectly into our ProSec™ (Production for Security) framework. If you were starting to think, wonder, or even hope that we could go an entire T-Report without mentioning ProSec™, we had to disappoint you.

    • If you have not read Stav Gaon’s work on data centers, I highly recommend you do. You can find his work under the Securitized Products Research & Strategy tab on Academy’s website. You can scroll and pick through his various pieces on data centers.

I think the Debt Diet is real and not necessarily bad. I don’t think the AI Diet is real, but since it is very bad if it occurs, it seemed worth at least highlighting that risk in our “diet” framework.

qe

Is the $40 billion of Federal Reserve purchases QE or a non-event? Or somewhere in between?

It “depends.” Clearly the Fed had to address some issues within the front end of the yield curve. SOFR, as a secured rate, should not be more expensive than unsecured rates. That is embarrassing, and has some small economic consequences. This is NOTHING like elevated LIBOR. When we have problems on interbank lending or even in the commercial paper markets, we can worry. This is much more of an issue with regulations, regulatory capital, and return on capital. The rules have been created in such a way, that it isn’t particularly economic (or even feasible) for the banking industry to price and trade SOFR at levels where “it should trade.” So, to the extent these purchases are “temporary” and designed to get us through year end and “clean things up” (and then they can be reduced or eliminated), it isn’t really QE or even qe. Bitcoin does as good of a job as any asset class at “sniffing” out balance sheet expansion and it has been moderately happy, but not giddy, since the announcement was made.

If the Treasury decides to take advantage of this by reducing issuance of longer-dated bonds, to sell more T-Bills to the Fed, and does this month after month, it starts to look a lot more like QE.

For now, I’ll be in the “qe” camp and that this is more of a “fix,” than in the full-on QE camp, but I’m not sure why Treasury wouldn’t try to make this work a lot more like QE than maybe even Powell intended?

I continue to believe that “we ain’t seen nothing yet” in terms of how the admin and Treasury will work with the Fed to achieve 3% or lower on the front end and a 3-handle (under 4%) on 10s.

At 4.18% on 10s and 2s vs 10s at 66 (the highest since February 2022), I’m tempted to be buying 10s and putting on flatteners. But, it is probably a bit early, as the market doesn’t feel that healthy, and I think that we need Japanese yields to really stabilize and Europe to make it clear on whether they are going to spend aggressively, or seize Russia’s frozen reserves, or let the 5% defense spending fizzle, before we can get too comfortable on U.S. rates.

It does seem ”curious” that Goolsbee went from dissenting on Wednesday (wanted no cut) to highlighting that he thinks there will be more cuts next year than others! I wonder what sort of “bollocking” he got from the admin between the FOMC meeting and his speaking opportunity?

Bottom Line

I am not sure how we got to the “bottom line” without mentioning Tuesday’s jobs data. The release date is highly unusual and I certainly don’t understand how the government shutdown will affect the report. Since it is delayed, the response rate could be higher, but maybe much of the preliminary work wasn’t done?

The consensus is for 50k jobs to be created. I’d be leaning towards the under. I do think a weak jobs report would help bonds. I agree with Goolsbee that the Fed will cut sooner and more aggressively than is priced in, but it won’t help the long end much (just yet) and won’t help stocks – as the “slowdown” story (despite the Fed raising GDP expectations for next year) will weigh on stocks.

One thing I can tell you with certainty is that despite all this talk of diets, and probably because of the holidays and travel, I’m very reluctant and even a bit scared to step on a scale.

Have a great week, but expect more chop and volatility coming into year end and the start of next year, which should be a gangbuster one for debt issuance, and may well make credit markets interesting to focus on again! I’ve almost missed the fact that in the past year, where everything in credit seemed so dull (until the latter half when the financing needs started to hit home), we also saw the first signs of unexpected problems in private credit.

With all that is going on in the world, and U.S. service members at risk, it was fun to sit back and watch a great Army-Navy football game

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 18:25

We're "At The Beginning Of The Credit Destruction Cycle"; Ed Dowd Warns

We're "At The Beginning Of The Credit Destruction Cycle"; Ed Dowd Warns

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Former Wall Street money manager and financial analyst Ed Dowd of PhinanceTechnologies.com warned in September we were at the “Beginning of Panic Rate Cut Cycle.”  Since that prediction, the Fed has cut interest rates three times.  Looks like Dowd called it correctly.  

So, when does the panic kick in?  Dowd says, “The panic kicks in when there is some sort of banking wobble or stock market wobble, which is in the process of setting up..."

"Private credit is the first to show problems.  We had Tricolor Holdings (subprime auto lending bankruptcy) go poof.  We had First Brands (bankruptcy) go poof.  This is all private credit.  We have had other lenders like PrimaLend (bankruptcy) starting to go poof.  Private credit is just like subprime.  It not a very big part of the Jenga credit chain, but it’s enough to start a daisy chain of knock-on effects.  

So, this is where we are, at the beginning of the credit destruction cycle.  We are seeing consumer credit card delinquencies nearing all-time highs, auto loan delinquencies and, next up, we will be seeing mortgage delinquencies

People stop paying their credit cards first, then their auto loans and stop paying on their homes last. 

As the layoffs accelerate, and we are already seeing more high-profile layoffs at Amazon, UPS and you name it, once those begin, we will be seeing higher delinquency rates.”

Dowd sees much lower prices for homes.  Dowd says,

“There is a distinct problem between homes for sale and homes sold, meaning there are a lot of people wanting to sell their homes and not a lot of people buying them. 

The inventory continues to grow. . .. The only way this clears is through price.  The price of homes is going lower. 

We had an overbuild in multi-family housing because of the illegal immigrants.  Those deals are going sour and rolling over. 

Rents are coming down. . .. It’s all slowly going the wrong way, and it will become a mainstream topic in 2026.”

In past interviews, Dowd points out there was massive fraud in the Biden Administration, especially in unemployment figures. 

That, too, will all be revealed.  This is why Dowd pointed out last year that President Trump “Inherited a Turd of an Economy.”

What is working are precious metals, especially gold.  Dowd does not see gold losing its shine anytime soon.  Dowd says,

“If we get any kind of credit crisis, gold may get sold temporarily where people sell what they can, but not what they want.  Long term, gold looks like it’s going to $10,000 an ounce on the charts by 2030.  Everything is conspiring fundamentally and technically to lead us that way.  They made gold a Tier 1 asset.  

That makes gold money again in the banking system. . .. I would not get scared out of my physical gold position anytime soon.”

Dowd has new cutting-edge analysis on China for institutional investors.  China is a lot weaker than anyone can imagine.  Dowd says,

“Not only does China have long-term structural problems, our report identifies a very acute part of their real estate crisis, which is beginning now and accelerating into 2026. . .. China is struggling mightily.  We have more bargaining chips than a lot of us think.  When I hear things like ‘China holds all the cards and Trump is screwed,’ I laugh.”

There is much more in the 45-minute interview.

There is lots of free information on Dowd’s website called PhinanceTechnologies.com.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 16:20

We're "At The Beginning Of The Credit Destruction Cycle"; Ed Dowd Warns

We're "At The Beginning Of The Credit Destruction Cycle"; Ed Dowd Warns

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Former Wall Street money manager and financial analyst Ed Dowd of PhinanceTechnologies.com warned in September we were at the “Beginning of Panic Rate Cut Cycle.”  Since that prediction, the Fed has cut interest rates three times.  Looks like Dowd called it correctly.  

So, when does the panic kick in?  Dowd says, “The panic kicks in when there is some sort of banking wobble or stock market wobble, which is in the process of setting up..."

"Private credit is the first to show problems.  We had Tricolor Holdings (subprime auto lending bankruptcy) go poof.  We had First Brands (bankruptcy) go poof.  This is all private credit.  We have had other lenders like PrimaLend (bankruptcy) starting to go poof.  Private credit is just like subprime.  It not a very big part of the Jenga credit chain, but it’s enough to start a daisy chain of knock-on effects.  

So, this is where we are, at the beginning of the credit destruction cycle.  We are seeing consumer credit card delinquencies nearing all-time highs, auto loan delinquencies and, next up, we will be seeing mortgage delinquencies

People stop paying their credit cards first, then their auto loans and stop paying on their homes last. 

As the layoffs accelerate, and we are already seeing more high-profile layoffs at Amazon, UPS and you name it, once those begin, we will be seeing higher delinquency rates.”

Dowd sees much lower prices for homes.  Dowd says,

“There is a distinct problem between homes for sale and homes sold, meaning there are a lot of people wanting to sell their homes and not a lot of people buying them. 

The inventory continues to grow. . .. The only way this clears is through price.  The price of homes is going lower. 

We had an overbuild in multi-family housing because of the illegal immigrants.  Those deals are going sour and rolling over. 

Rents are coming down. . .. It’s all slowly going the wrong way, and it will become a mainstream topic in 2026.”

In past interviews, Dowd points out there was massive fraud in the Biden Administration, especially in unemployment figures. 

That, too, will all be revealed.  This is why Dowd pointed out last year that President Trump “Inherited a Turd of an Economy.”

What is working are precious metals, especially gold.  Dowd does not see gold losing its shine anytime soon.  Dowd says,

“If we get any kind of credit crisis, gold may get sold temporarily where people sell what they can, but not what they want.  Long term, gold looks like it’s going to $10,000 an ounce on the charts by 2030.  Everything is conspiring fundamentally and technically to lead us that way.  They made gold a Tier 1 asset.  

That makes gold money again in the banking system. . .. I would not get scared out of my physical gold position anytime soon.”

Dowd has new cutting-edge analysis on China for institutional investors.  China is a lot weaker than anyone can imagine.  Dowd says,

“Not only does China have long-term structural problems, our report identifies a very acute part of their real estate crisis, which is beginning now and accelerating into 2026. . .. China is struggling mightily.  We have more bargaining chips than a lot of us think.  When I hear things like ‘China holds all the cards and Trump is screwed,’ I laugh.”

There is much more in the 45-minute interview.

There is lots of free information on Dowd’s website called PhinanceTechnologies.com.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 16:20

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