Zero Hedge

Futs Jump On Reports About Iran's Willingness To Give Up Uranium Stockpile

Futs Jump On Reports About Iran's Willingness To Give Up Uranium Stockpile

U.S. equity futures jumped around 4:00 a.m. ET after Bloomberg News reported that Iran had previously signaled a willingness to surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpiles in high-stakes negotiations, just before the U.S. launched Operation Epic Fury.

Although the Bloomberg story relates to last week's U.S.-Iran developments, the market is extremely sensitive to headlines - even old ones - and that was enough to send S&P 500 E-mini futures surging, erasing earlier losses and now flat. Nasdaq futures are also little changed.

Main U.S. equity futures indexes

Here's what Bloomberg reported:

Iran told the U.S. in recent nuclear negotiations that its stockpile of highly enriched uranium "is the result of our practical achievements and that we are ready to get rid of it, provided we get something good in return," the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency cited Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi as saying.

Bear in mind this news is 'old' (we reported on Friday), but for it to repeated no in public is very different from saying it in private a week ago...

Absolutely huge late Friday developing news, if it's confirmed and assuming it sticks, via CBS: "Iran has agreed to give up its stockpile of enriched material - zero accumulation - and allow for full verification by the IAEA of its nuclear program according to US-Iran talks mediator, Oman's foreign minister Badr al Busaidi."

The Iranian side also seems to be confirming its willingness to make this significant concession, also to stave off a massive US attack, given the immense build-up of Pentagon assets in the region. According to more breaking details via CBS:

Negotiators from the U.S. and Iran have made "substantial progress" toward a deal to curb Iran's nuclear program, Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi told CBS News on Friday, as President Trump considers strikes on Iran.

Albusaidi — who has mediated several rounds of U.S.-Iran talks over the last month — told "Face the Nation" moderator Margaret Brennan that a "peace deal is within our reach."

He said Iran has agreed that it will "never, ever have … nuclear material that will create a bomb," which he called a "big achievement." The country's existing stockpiles of enriched uranium would be "blended to the lowest level possible" and "converted into fuel, and that fuel will be irreversible," according to Albusaidi.

Why this old news is being recirculated remains unclear.

Last week:

On Wednesday, CNN reported that Iranian intel officials had sent word to Washington about potential talks to end the conflict, yet no U.S. official has publicly confirmed that any negotiations are underway.

Interestingly while stocks jumped on the 'hope', Polymarket odds of a ceasefire by month-end slipped to just 1 in 4...

Iran potentially surrendering its uranium stockpiles may become the new "trade war" headlines for the stock market casino. We all remember those headlines from one year ago and in Trump's first term. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 07:41

China Halts Diesel, Gasoline Exports As Paralyzed Hormuz Risks Energy Shock

China Halts Diesel, Gasoline Exports As Paralyzed Hormuz Risks Energy Shock

Less than one week into Operation Epic Fury, Beijing has ordered its top refiners to halt gasoline and diesel exports as the Strait of Hormuz remained paralyzed on Thursday morning. The move exposes how China is one of the biggest losers in a prolonged Hormuz shutdown, with Beijing appearing to brace for an oil shock.

Beijing is scrambling after panicking at the start of the week and calling for an immediate ceasefire in the U.S.-Iran conflict. Since then, Iraq has begun cutting crude oil output, and Wednesday brought another major energy shock: Qatar’s massive LNG export operation declared force majeure, effectively removing about 20% of global LNG supply from the market, with roughly 80% of those volumes normally headed to Asia.

Bloomberg sources say that officials from the National Development and Reform Commission, China's top economic planner, called for an immediate temporary suspension of refined crude product exports on Thursday. 

Chinese officials told top domestic refiners to halt any new export deals and cancel existing shipments, though jet and bunker fuel in bonded storage, along with supplies to Hong Kong and Macau, are exempt. 

NDRC's decision is merely viewed as a way for Beijing protect domestic fuel supply and energy security. We've made it very well known to readers that China is heavily exposed to Gulf energy. 

We've briefed readers (read here) that China is heavily exposed to cheap Iranian crude exports. About 80% of Iran's oil exports - about 1.6 million barrels per day - go to China.

... and so is the rest of Asia.

We asked a very important question on Wednesday evening: "Will Trump Seize Or Destroy Iran's Oil Export Island?"

Crude oil futures for April on the Shanghai International Exchange (priced in dollars) are near $100/bbl.

However, there is some good news overnight:

Any sustained closure of the critical waterway could trigger an energy shock in China, hitting first through higher prices and, if the disruption persists, through tighter physical supply. As the world’s largest crude importer, with roughly half of its oil imports linked to Gulf shipments, Beijing faces the risk of chokepoint disruptions. 

All of this comes just weeks before President Trump’s upcoming trip to Beijing, and with the U.S. military likely to provide tanker escorts through the narrow waterway, the leverage Washington appears to have gained ahead of any Trump-Xi meeting looks increasingly well calculated. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 07:05

Ex-OpenAI Researcher's Hedge Fund Reveals Big Bitcoin Miner Bets In New SEC Filing

Ex-OpenAI Researcher's Hedge Fund Reveals Big Bitcoin Miner Bets In New SEC Filing

Authored by Christina Comben via cointelegraph,

Leopold Aschenbrenner has built a US stock portfolio heavily concentrated in companies that supply the power and infrastructure behind the artificial intelligence boom.

The former OpenAI researcher, who left the lab’s superalignment team to launch San Francisco-based hedge fund Situational Awareness LP, has expanded it from $383 million in assets in early 2025 to a reported $5.52 billion in equity positions in its latest 13F filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

The fund’s 13F filing for Q4 2025 shows a highly concentrated portfolio built around betting that the real winners of the AI boom won’t be chatbots, but the power plants and data centers that feed them. Situational Awareness reported $5.52 billion in US equity positions across 29 holdings, with a large share of that value clustered in a handful of AI infrastructure names.

Those include graphics processing unit (GPU) cloud provider CoreWeave, fuel cell and power specialist Bloom Energy, Intel, optics maker Lumentum and Bitcoin miner-turned-AI infrastructure play Core Scientific

Aschenbrenner first drew attention as a precocious AI thinker after publishing a widely read “Situational Awareness” manifesto on the race to advanced AI, then quickly parlayed that profile into capital. His San Francisco-based AI hedge fund now manages more than $1.5 billion, backed by prominent tech founders, family offices and institutions.

Aschenbrenner has been a substantial net buyer quarter-on-quarter, with Situational Awareness’ 13-F reported US equity and options portfolio increasing from about $254 million in Q4 2024 to more than $5.5 billion by Q4 2025. Over that period, the fund built sizable positions in Bitcoin miners and related energy infrastructure firms including IREN, Cipher Mining, Riot Platforms, Bitdeer and Applied Digital.

Bitcoin miners pivot from hashrate to horsepower

The bet aligns with a broader shift already reshaping Bitcoin mining. After the latest halving squeezed block rewards, large miners have started repurposing their high-density, power-rich sites as AI hosting hubs, treating megawatts and data center space as scarce assets in the new compute economy rather than just hashrate.

Core Scientific, for example, has signed a series of 12-year high-performance computing hosting contracts with AI cloud firm CoreWeave, while MARA acquired a 64% stake in French computing infrastructure operator Exaion, expanding into AI and cloud services.

Situational Awareness disclosed a 9.4% stake in Core Scientific via an amended Schedule 13D, representing 28,756,478 shares with shared voting and disposition power, effectively giving the fund a levered bet on CoreWeave’s expansion and the miner’s pivot from pure Bitcoin to AI and high-performance computing.

At the same time, the fund has taken aim at the other side of the AI transition with a short position in Indian IT giant Infosys, a wager that large language models and AI coding tools will pressure the traditional outsourced software services model.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 06:30

Free Speech Victory In Germany After Top Court Issues Landmark Rulings For 'Insults'

Free Speech Victory In Germany After Top Court Issues Landmark Rulings For 'Insults'

Via REMIX News,

The wave of police searches and prosecutions in Germany may be facing a new hurdle after Germany’s top court, the Constitutional Court, issued two landmark rulings strengthening freedom of expression. However, Fatina Keilani, editor in Welt’s freedom of expression department, said that these two decisions have gone largely unnoticed by the public, an oversight that she finds remarkable.

Karlsruhe: The Second Senate of the Federal Constitutional Court gathers. Photo: Uli Deck/dpa (Photo by Uli Deck/picture alliance via Getty Images)

Writing in Welt, Keilani reports that the Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe handed down two resolutions in December that push back against what she describes as hasty convictions for insults. The rulings stem from two separate cases in which individuals used sharp, even offensive language against public officials and medical staff — and were criminally sentenced for it.

As Remix News has extensively reported, there have been hundreds, if not thousands, of such cases in recent years. Some of these cases have even attracted international attention and led to questions about freedom of speech and growing repression in Germany.

Just late last month, German prosecutors launched investigations into dozens of comments under just one post criticizing Chancellor Friedrich Merz, with one user calling him “Pinocchio.” A number of constitutional lawyers were quick to slam the investigations, with one labeling it “hysterical madness.”

Now, Germany’s top court is strengthening freedom of expression at a worrying time.

The first case involved a retired police officer whose son attended a high school during the Covid pandemic. Angered by the school’s testing requirements, the father sent the headmaster a series of emails accusing him of serving a “fascist system and its henchmen” and of “fascist cadre obedience.” The Göppingen District Court sentenced him to a fine of 70 daily rates of €80 each for insult. He lost every appeal before taking his case to Karlsruhe — where he finally prevailed.

The Constitutional Court found that his right to freedom of expression had been violated, ruling that the lower courts had not examined the meaning of his statements carefully enough, nor struck an adequate balance between free expression and the protection of personality.

Keilani quotes the court directly: “Part of this freedom is that citizens can attack officials they consider responsible in an accusatory and personalized way for their way of exercising power, without having to fear that the personal elements of such statements are removed from this context and form the basis for drastic judicial sanctions.”

The second case involved a man who had been placed in a psychiatric hospital on multiple occasions and subjected to coercive measures. In a letter to his lawyer in 2023, he described hospital staff as a “psychiatric mob.” When he applied to have the letter formally served, a senior bailiff refused on the grounds that its content was punishable. The Stuttgart Higher Regional Court upheld that refusal — but Karlsruhe disagreed.

The Constitutional Court was pointed in its criticism, noting that the Higher Regional Court’s entire reasoning had been reduced to just two sentences, and that it had made no real weighing of the fundamental right to free expression at all. The case has been sent back for reconsideration.

For Keilani, both rulings carry a significance that extends beyond the individual cases. She situates them within a broader climate of concern, noting that “numerous decisions against freedom of expression have recently raised doubts in Germany about the rule of law and about the stability of the courts with regard to this crucial fundamental right.”

In particular, the wave of politicians weaponizing comments on the internet to launch police raids and drag social media users to court. Against that backdrop, she finds the Karlsruhe decisions reassuring — while also reading them as a firm instruction to lower courts about the standard they must meet when judging speech.

These rulings do not necessarily mean, however, that internet users are now able to freely insult politicians without consequence. For one, prosecutors and politicians still have incentive to pursue such cases, both in order to stifle dissent and to intimidate the populace. Social media users may be able to defend themselves in court, but it will likely take years and cost them substantial amounts of money. Furthermore, outright insults without context are still likely to be prosecutable offenses under current German law. For example, insulting a politician’s physical appearance or simply calling them a slur could land social media users in hot water.

Regardless, the country’s top court has drawn a line in the sand, according to Keilani.

She also cited the “urgent decision of the Cologne Administrative Court regarding the classification of the AfD” as also a welcome sign that rule of law still stands in Germany. In that ruling, the Cologne court found that the designation of the AfD as a “confirmed” case of right-wing extremism was not constitutionally sound.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 05:00

US, Ecuador Launch Joint Military Operations Against Terrorist Organizations

US, Ecuador Launch Joint Military Operations Against Terrorist Organizations

US Southern Command on Tuesday stated that the US military had conducted a joint operation with Ecuadorian forces against "designated terrorist organizations" in Ecuador, as the Trump administration continues to fight narco-terrorism. 

U.S. Marine Corps. Lt. Gen. Francis Donovan looks on during a Senate Armed Services Committee Confirmation Hearing on Capitol Hill on Jan. 15, 2026. Tom Brenner/Getty Images

"We commend the men and women of the Ecuadorian armed forces for their unwavering commitment to this fight, demonstrating courage and resolve through continued actions against narco-terrorists in their country," Marine Corps Lt. Gen. Francis L. Donovan, commander of U.S. Southern Command, said in a post on X.

The announcement comes after Donovan visited Ecuador on March 1 for a two-day visit, where he met President Daniel Noboa and senior Ecuadorian defense officials in Quito. They discussed security cooperation and US support of Ecuador's efforts to combat narco-terrorism. 

A Pentagon spox told the Epoch Times that the joint effort does not entail US troops in combat

"Ecuador is one of the United States’ strongest partners in disrupting and dismantling Designated Terrorist Organizations in the region," Donnovan said on Tuesday. "The Ecuadorian people have witnessed firsthand the terror, violence, and corruption that these narco-terrorists inflict on communities across the region."

Noboa announced on Monday that Ecuador had entered a new phase in its fight against narcoterrorism and illegal mining.

"In the month of March, we will conduct joint operations with our regional allies, including the United States," he said on X. "The security of Ecuadorians is our priority, and we will fight to achieve peace in every corner of the country."

As the Epoch Times notes further, the operations come amid increased U.S. involvement in the region, including the capture of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in January.

Military personnel patrol a market as they carry out weapons and drug checks in Quito, Ecuador, on Feb. 10, 2026. Rodrigo Buendia/AFP via Getty Images

The Trump administration in September 2025 classified two Ecuadorian cartels, Los Choneros and Los Lobos, as foreign terrorist organizations.

“Los Choneros and Los Lobos have attacked and threatened public officials and their families, security personnel, judges, prosecutors, and journalists in Ecuador,” the U.S. State Department said in a September 2025 statement.

On Feb. 2, the U.S. Coast Guard detained three suspected narco-terrorists northwest of Ecuador during Operation Pacific Viper, an ongoing U.S. Coast Guard-led campaign launched in early August 2025, to undermine drug trafficking in the Eastern Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea.

In March 2025, Noboa called for U.S. special forces, with assistance from Brazil and Europe, to dismantle the international narco-terrorist organizations, which have swelled to thousands of armed members.

“We need to have more soldiers to fight this war,” Noboa told the BBC at the time. “Seventy percent of the world’s cocaine exits via Ecuador. We need the help of international forces.”

Ryan Morgan contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 04:15

How Likely Is It That Pakistan Joins The Third Gulf War In Support Of Its Saudi Ally?

How Likely Is It That Pakistan Joins The Third Gulf War In Support Of Its Saudi Ally?

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Pakistan could set into motion a sequence of events that restores its role as the US’ top regional ally, returns US troops to Afghanistan’s Bagram Airbase if they later team up against the Taliban, and therefore build a new regional order at the geostrategic crossroads of South and Central Asia.

Saudi Arabia has been attacked multiple times by Iran on the pretext that the US military infrastructure on its territory has been used to some extent in the US campaign against Iran, which led to what can be described as the Third Gulf War, in spite of the Saudi-Pakistani Mutual Defense Pact from last September. Iran clearly wasn’t deterred, but Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar still reminded Iran about it in what seems to either be another attempt to deter an escalation or intimate impending involvement in the war.

In his words, “We have a defence pact with Saudi Arabia. I conveyed to the Iranian side about our defence pact, to which he asked me to ensure that KSA’s land was not used. Then I had shuttle communication, as a result of which, as you can compare, the least attacks from Iran are to Saudi Arabia and Oman.” Objectively speaking, it reflects poorly on Pakistan that Iran ignored Dar’s reminder and still attacked Saudi Arabia, hence why he coped that “the least attacks from Iran are to Saudi Arabia”.

Mutual defense pacts are supposed to deter attacks, not simply reduce the number and intensity thereof, which in any case didn’t even happen like Dar claimed since Iran continues to attack Saudi Arabia with gusto. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are now thrown into the dilemma of either activating their mutual defense pact to significantly escalate the conflict through their joint involvement therein, likely coordinated with their shared US ally if that happens, or tacitly admit that it’s militarily impotent.

The crushing reputational costs of failing to activate their previously hyped-up mutual defense pact place additional pressure upon their policymakers to do so, even if the decision is delayed till after the US and Israel destroy more of Iran’s air defenses and missile launchers to reduce the risks to them. Saudi Arabia hosts US bases and its economy is extremely vulnerable to large-scale disruptions from low-cost drone strikes alone, while Pakistan is a “Major Non-NATO Ally” with very close ties to Trump 2.0.

The aforesaid factors greatly raise the chances of them activating their mutual defense pact. In that case, Saudi Arabia might also lead some of the smaller Gulf Kingdoms that have also been attacked by Iran into battle against it as part of an even larger US-coordinated escalation, which could occur in parallel with Pakistani strikes and/or even limited ground ops on the anti-terrorist pretext of targeting Baloch separatists. Pakistan has three reasons to do this apart from the earlier-mentioned reputational one.

In brief, it wants to restore its role as the US’ top regional partner after India replaced it following the Indo-US trade deal, to which end doing the US a favor in Iran could also be the cover for destroying rival India’s port in Chabahar while improving the odds of them teaming up against the Taliban. Pakistan is actively destroying their leftover US stockpiles, which could facilitate Trump’s desired return of US troops to Bagram Airbase, thus possibly replacing Indian influence in Afghanistan with American and Pakistani.

Therefore, by activating its mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia after Iran’s attacks against its ally, Pakistan can set into motion a sequence of events for building a new regional order with the US at the geostrategic crossroads of South and Central Asia. This outcome could also see them aid their shared Turkish ally’s challenge to Russia in the latter region along its vulnerable southern periphery. These calculations are compelling enough that Pakistan’s involvement in the Third Gulf War can’t be ruled out.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 03:30

China Is Scrambling

China Is Scrambling

Authored by Zineb Riboua via Beyond the Ideological,

The men in Zhongnanhai do not rattle easily. Decades of patient statecraft, a foreign policy built on studied ambiguity, and an economy engineered to absorb external shocks have granted Beijing’s leadership a remarkable tolerance for turbulence. Operation Epic Fury, the American-Israeli air campaign now dismantling Iran’s military architecture, has produced something unusual in the corridors of Chinese power: visible confusion.

Xi Jinping is scrambling. The word is not used lightly. For a leader who has built his image on strategic composure and long-horizon thinking, the current moment is acutely dangerous. Not because China faces a direct military threat, but because every available response to the crisis in the Persian Gulf leads Beijing into a trap of its own contradictions.

Three Reasons Operation Epic Fury Is Catastrophic for Xi

First, the Iranian counterweight is gone. In 2021, Xi told senior Party officials that “the East is rising and the West is declining,” that America was “the biggest source of chaos in the present-day world,” and that China was entering a period of strategic opportunity. Iran was central to that thesis. Beijing needed a defiant Tehran to keep Washington pinned down in the Gulf, to sustain a sanctions-proof energy corridor, and above all, to stand as living evidence that American power had hard limits. The entire architecture of CCP’s dogma of inevitability, which rested on Iran’s ability to endure, and Epic Fury removed the foundation in a single afternoon.

Khamenei was the man who made the thesis feel real. Beijing’s relationship with the Islamic Republic was never really ideological, but Khamenei’s survival was the single most useful fact in Chinese foreign policy. Here was a man Washington had threatened, sanctioned, plotted against, and encircled for over four decades, and he was still giving Friday sermons. Xi personally signed the comprehensive strategic partnership with Khamenei’s government. He personally authorized the weapons transfers. And he personally wielded the Security Council veto. None of it kept Khamenei alive for one additional hour once Washington decided he was finished.

Second, Xi’s own story is collapsing from the inside. The story he told 1.4 billion people, that America is a declining power incapable of decisive force projection, does not match what happened in seventy-two hours over Tehran. State media can suppress the footage and the censors can scrub Weibo, but the ones who matter most, the military planners, the foreign policy professionals, the provincial officials who read between the lines for a living, know what they saw. And if the story is wrong about Iran, the unavoidable next question is whether it was ever right about anything else.

Third, the energy math turns against Beijing. China bought 1.38 million barrels per day of Iranian oil last year and takes over 80% of everything Iran ships. Half of China’s total oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. With Ayatollah Khamenei now dead and Iran’s military leadership weakened, the Gulf’s strategic balance shifts decisively toward Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, whose energy ties with the United States are strengthening. China’s old selling point was very simple and transactional: we buy your oil and never mention human rights. That pitch loses its utility when Gulf producers already feel protected by an American security guarantee that just proved, on live television, that it works.

The Messaging Trap

Xi’s communications problem may be worse than his strategic one, because there is no good answer. If Beijing endorses the strikes, it loses the “Global South.” If Beijing condemns the strikes, it attaches Chinese prestige to a dead man’s regime, and risks provoking a Trump administration that has just demonstrated, through the act itself, that it does not bluff.

So Beijing chose the remaining option: hide behind the United Nations. Mao Ning called the killing “a grave violation of sovereignty.” The language sounds forceful, but the Belt and Road countries are watching, and what they see so far is a confused superpower reading from a script while American carriers do the actual deciding.

Every Iranian Move Is a Chinese Loss

The truly vicious part of Beijing’s situation is that Iran’s entire playbook for retaliation was designed to punish Washington, but the geography and economics of each weapon mean the damage lands on China instead. Iranian missiles aimed at Gulf states threaten the very oil infrastructure and port facilities that Chinese companies have spent billions investing in across the region.

The Strait of Hormuz is worse. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced within hours that no ship would pass through the channel, a threat designed as leverage against the West, except that the United States has a shale industry and a crisis-proof strategic petroleum reserve. In fact, according to Kayrros, as of March 31, 2025, China had only filled 56% percent of its above-ground strategic and commercial storage facilities.

Which means that nearly 45% of China’s own oil imports now sit/would sit hostage to a blockade that was never meant to hurt Beijing. The Houthis have resumed attacks on Red Sea shipping, every flare-up in Iraq threatens oil concessions that Chinese companies spent billions building, and the sum of Iran’s resistance amounts to a systematic disruption of Chinese commercial interests across every waterway and energy corridor Beijing depends on, executed in Khamenei’s name, with no regard for who actually pays the price.

Counting Moves

The clearest sign of Beijing’s disorientation is the absence of action: no emergency summits, no diplomatic maneuvers, no military repositioning, even as a Chinese citizen was killed in crossfire in Tehran and over 300 nationals were evacuated. The sum total of Beijing’s response to the largest American military operation in a generation remains a press conference.

Xi bet a decade of foreign policy on Khamenei’s ability to withstand American pressure, and the bet did not pay off. Operation Epic Fury was designed to break the Islamic Republic, but it may also have exposed the uncomfortable truth that Chinese influence in the Middle East was only as durable as the assumption that no one would ever call it into question, and in Zhongnanhai, they know it.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 02:45

501 Afghans Sue Germany Over Revoked Resettlement Promises, Demand Entry Into Europe

501 Afghans Sue Germany Over Revoked Resettlement Promises, Demand Entry Into Europe

Authored by Thomas Brooke via REMIX,

A total of 501 Afghan nationals are currently suing the German government after previously granted commitments to admit them into the country were withdrawn.

The cases are directed against Germany’s Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF), which revoked earlier pledges by the previous federal government to allow the individuals to resettle in Germany. The total number of legal cases was revealed following a parliamentary inquiry by the Left Party.

Despite the growing number of legal challenges, the Federal Ministry of the Interior has stated that a change in policy is “not intended,” Welt reported.

Most of the plaintiffs are currently in Pakistan, where authorities have called on Afghan nationals without long-term status to leave the country immediately. Many of those affected had previously received assurances of admission under resettlement programs introduced following the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021.

The legal action is being backed by left-wing NGOs as well as politicians from The Left. Clara Bünger, the party’s asylum spokesperson, described it as “shameful” that Afghans must sue to enforce what she said were firm pledges made by Berlin, and demanded that all original commitments be implemented without delay.

Their situation has deteriorated significantly in recent months. In July 2025, Pakistan began detaining Afghan nationals who had been earmarked for relocation to Germany but remained stuck in Islamabad after German authorities failed to complete their cases within the agreed timeframes. Around 2,500 Afghans were left in legal limbo as German background checks and visa procedures dragged on far beyond the three-month validity of Pakistani visas — often taking up to eight months.

A total of 501 Afghan nationals are currently suing the German government after previously granted commitments to admit them into the country were withdrawn.

The cases are directed against Germany’s Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF), which revoked earlier pledges by the previous federal government to allow the individuals to resettle in Germany. The total number of legal cases was revealed following a parliamentary inquiry by the Left Party.

Despite the growing number of legal challenges, the Federal Ministry of the Interior has stated that a change in policy is “not intended,” Welt reported.

Most of the plaintiffs are currently in Pakistan, where authorities have called on Afghan nationals without long-term status to leave the country immediately. Many of those affected had previously received assurances of admission under resettlement programs introduced following the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021.

The legal action is being backed by left-wing NGOs as well as politicians from The Left. Clara Bünger, the party’s asylum spokesperson, described it as “shameful” that Afghans must sue to enforce what she said were firm pledges made by Berlin, and demanded that all original commitments be implemented without delay.

Their situation has deteriorated significantly in recent months. In July 2025, Pakistan began detaining Afghan nationals who had been earmarked for relocation to Germany but remained stuck in Islamabad after German authorities failed to complete their cases within the agreed timeframes. Around 2,500 Afghans were left in legal limbo as German background checks and visa procedures dragged on far beyond the three-month validity of Pakistani visas — often taking up to eight months.

Islamabad had repeatedly warned Berlin that it could no longer tolerate the presence of thousands of Afghans with expired documents awaiting onward travel. With no resolution forthcoming, Pakistani authorities began arresting those whose status had lapsed and initiated deportation proceedings.

Alternative for Germany (AfD) co-leader Alice Weidel praised Islamabad last year for doing what the German government wouldn’t. “Pakistan is deporting Afghans to their homeland, whom the conservative coalition government wanted to bring to Germany, thus thwarting these plans. A good thing! The German government must finally end the voluntary admission of Afghans,” she said.

The vetting procedures had already been exposed as deeply flawed. Last year, Bild reported that only one in eight Afghans who entered Germany through special protection programs had been fully vetted by security authorities beforehand. More than 31,000 Afghans, including family members, were said to have arrived without complete background checks.

Berlin has insisted that those flown in were primarily former local staff who had supported the German military during its deployment in Afghanistan. However, reports indicated that only a small proportion of passengers on recent charter flights were former employees of the Bundeswehr or their close relatives.

Security concerns were also raised by the German Police Union, which repeatedly called for Afghan relocation flights from Pakistan to be suspended, citing identity verification problems and potential risks. The union last year urged then-Chancellor Olaf Scholz to halt the program altogether.

In January of this year, it emerged that the federal government had attempted to reduce the backlog by offering financial compensation to Afghans willing to relinquish their resettlement pledges and drop litigation proceedings. According to a report cited by Die Zeit, around 700 individuals were contacted and offered several thousand euros to permanently withdraw from the admission schemes. By the end of the year, only 167 had accepted, while 357 rejected the proposal outright, leaving the majority still awaiting a decision on their future.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/05/2026 - 02:00

How Operation Epic Fury Unfolded

How Operation Epic Fury Unfolded

Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Pentagon had been choreographing a prospective massive attack on Iran since 1980, but it wasn’t until December 2025 that U.S. President Donald Trump, after meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington, told military planners to give him that devastating option in case the fundamentalist Shia regime refused to end its uranium enrichment program.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Public Domain, Shutterstock

With that request, the countdown to Operation Epic Fury kicked off.

Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. Dan Caine told reporters during a March 2 press conference that with the president’s December request, the Pentagon began “setting the force and setting the theater” and shifted forces into place over the previous 30 days to “provide the president with credible options should action be required.”

After U.S. negotiators, led by special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, left Geneva on Feb. 26 without concessions from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, the die was cast.

The next day, the president called the Pentagon from Air Force One as it was en route to Corpus Christi, Texas, where he was scheduled to campaign for Republican primary candidates.

Caine recalled the exact moment he got the call: “H hour,” a military term for the time at which an operation begins, was 3:38 p.m. EST on Friday, Feb. 27, when the Pentagon “received the final go order from President Trump.”

Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. Dan Caine holds a briefing about the U.S.–Israeli conflict with Iran, at the Pentagon in Washington on March 2, 2026. Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters

“The president directed, and I quote: ‘Operation Epic Fury is approved. No aborts. Good luck,’” Caine said.

With that one call, he said, “across the globe, [U.S. military] operation centers came alive,” and Adm. Brad Cooper, Central Command commander at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Florida, assumed operational command in the theater.

When Trump issued the “go order” at 3:38 p.m. Feb. 27, it was just after midnight Feb. 28 in Tehran. In the nearly 10 hours between H hour and the actual launch of the attack, Caine said, “in the region, every element of the joint force made their final preparations.”

Air defense batteries readied themselves, checking their systems to respond to Iranian attacks,” he said. “Pilots and crews rehearsed their strike packages for the final time. Air crews began loading their final weapons, and two carrier strike groups began to move towards their launching point.”

Plumes of smoke rise over the skyline following explosions in Tehran, Iran, on March 1, 2026. Majid Saeedi/Getty Images

“As dawn crept up, across the Central Command [area of operations], skies surged to life,” Caine said.

More than 100 aircraft launched from land and sea—fighters, tankers, airborne early warning, electronic attack, bombers from the states, and unmanned platforms—forming a single synchronized wave.”

That wave arrived over Iran at 1:15 a.m. EST, 9:45 a.m. in Tehran.

That timeline was accelerated by “a trigger event conducted by the Israeli Defense Forces, enabled by the U.S. intelligence community” from the standard night attack to a mid-morning opening salvo that killed Iranian leader Ali Khamenei and up to 48 of the nation’s military leaders at a Tehran compound.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Public Domain

That was among more than 1,000 targets struck in the first 24 hours of the aerial, missile, and drone assault.

“The full strength of America’s armed forces came together in a unified purpose against a capable and determined adversary,” Caine said.

“This deployment included thousands of service members from all branches, hundreds of advanced fourth- and fifth-generation fighters, dozens of refueling tankers, the Lincoln and Ford carrier strike groups and their embarked air wings, sustained flow of munitions, fuel supplies ... all supported with command and control, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance network. And the flow of forces continues today.”

(Top) Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72), Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers USS Michael Murphy (DDG 112), USS Frank E. Petersen Jr. (DDG 121), Henry J. Kaiser-class fleet replenishment oiler USNS Henry J. Kaiser (T-AO-187), Lewis and Clark-class dry cargo ship USNS Carl Brashear (T-AKE 7), and U.S. Coast Guard Sentinel-class fast-response cutters USCG Robert Goldman (WPC-1142) and USCGC Clarence Sutphin. Jr. (WPC-1147) sail in formation in the Arabian Sea, on Feb. 6, 2026. (Bottom Left) An F/A-18E Super Hornet, attached to Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 14, prepares to land on the flight deck of aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) during Operation Epic Fury at Sea on March 1, 2026. (Bottom Right) U.S. sailors prepare to stage ordnance on the flight deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln on Feb. 28, 2026. Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Jesse Monford/U.S. Navy via Getty Images, U.S. Navy via Getty Images

The nation’s highest-ranking military officer laid out the order of battle and what forces, as of March 2, were engaged in Operation Epic Fury, a rapid assembly of forces that “demonstrated the joint forces ability to adapt and project power at the time and place of [the United States’] choosing” that included “several combat firsts” to be made public “at some point in the future.”

Before the first missile struck, Caine said, “the first movers” were Space Force, Army, and Air Force electronics and cyber warfare technicians “layering non-kinetic effects, disrupting and degrading and blinding Iran’s ability to see, communicate, and respond.”

With Iranian communications disrupted and its air defenses “without the ability to see, coordinate, or respond effectively,” U.S. and Israeli air forces, with “swift, precise, and overwhelming strikes,” established local air superiority immediately, he said, setting the stage for a campaign the Pentagon maintains it can sustain, and expand if needed, for weeks.

Combat Firsts

With Iranian air defenses hacked or blinded before the opening salvo, the assault began with waves of Tomahawk cruise missiles—long-range precision weapons capable of striking targets hundreds of miles inland—launched by the aircraft carriers USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea and USS Gerald R. Ford in the eastern Mediterranean Sea and their battlegroup destroyers.

The USS Gerald R. Ford, which had been deployed to the region in June 2025 during the 12-Day War that badly damaged, but did not destroy, Iran’s uranium enrichment program and was then dispatched to the southern Caribbean to lead Operation Southern Spear off Venezuela, was ordered back to the Sixth Fleet in January and is now in its eighth month of sustained operations.

It is to be relieved eventually by the USS George H.W. Bush, a Nimitz-class carrier undergoing post-overhaul sea trials.

With missiles outbound, hundreds of Air Force F-15s, F-16s, and stealth F-22 Raptors merged with carrier-launched F/A-18 Hornets, stealth F-35s, and EA-18G electronic warfare jets in the massive aerial attack against Iranian air defenses and missile-launch sites.

The fighters were later joined by Air Force stealth B-2 Spirit bombers that flew 17 hours from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri, which had struck suspected nuclear complexes with 30,000-pound “penetrator” munitions in June 2025.

(Top Left) A U.S. F-15 fighter plane prepares for landing in Mildenhall, England, on Jan. 7, 2026. (Top Right) B-2 Spirit Bombers fly over the White House on July 4, 2025. (Bottom Left) A U.S. F-35 fighter plane takes off in Mildenhall, England, on Jan. 7, 2026. (Bottom Right) A U.S. Air Force F22-Raptor takes off in Ceiba, Puerto Rico, on Jan. 4, 2026. Dan Kitwood/Getty Images, Eric Lee/Getty Images, Miguel J. Rodriguez Carrillo / AFP via Getty Images

In the opening phases of the Feb. 28 assault, they targeted ballistic missile sites with 2,000-pound precision-guided bombs, confirming that the focus was on degrading Iran’s air defenses and communications.

Ground-based Army precision strike missiles from the M142 high-mobility artillery rocket system mounted on “shoot and scoot” mobile launchers added to the fray, lobbing short-range ballistics into Iran from bases in the Gulf states, the first time the short-range ballistic missile system was used in combat.

The Pentagon has acknowledged that Operation Epic Fury is also the debut of a new low-cost ‌uncrewed combat attack system (LUCAS) drone—a one-way “suicide” drone reverse-engineered to mimic Iran’s Shahed 136 drone, which it has exported en masse to Russia for use in Ukraine.

Among the forces participating in the attack are Air Force MQ-9 Reaper drones carrying Hellfire missiles and guided bombs, twin-engine A-10 attack aircraft directed by E-3 Sentry and E-2 Hawkeye airborne surveillance and EA-11A BACN “Wi-Fi in the sky” reconnaissance jets, and KC-135 and KC-46 aerial refueling tankers.

Under attack from Iranian and Shia militias, there are about 2,400 U.S. soldiers in Syria and Iraq, including in Erbil, Iraq.

About 2,000 are from the Iowa National Guard, who are to be relieved by a unit from the 10th Mountain Division this spring.

At least 250 guardsmen left Iraq in mid-February, and on Feb. 27—before the attack was launched—the Iowa National Guard announced that 650 more were headed home.

It is uncertain what their status is now.

The U.S. base in Erbil is among installations across the region under sporadic Iranian and militia attacks.

Trump and War Secretary Pete Hegseth have not ruled out dispatching “boots on the ground,” although there is no indication that Army and Marine infantry forces have been ordered to deploy.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/04/2026 - 23:20

Why The GOP Could Defy Precedent And Win The Midterms

Why The GOP Could Defy Precedent And Win The Midterms

Historically, the party in power almost always loses seats in midterm elections. There are only two exceptions to this rule. In 1934, under Franklin D. Roosevelt, and then in 2002, under George W. Bush. Are there signs that 2026 could be another precedent-shattering year? A new Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll survey conducted late last month suggests it could be. 

The poll has the generic congressional ballot tied at 50-50. Not only are these numbers on their face bad for the Democratic Party, but they also represent a significant shift from the Harvard CAPS/Harris January poll, when Republicans trailed Democrats by eight points.

The shift in the horse race is striking on its own. Perhaps the real question is why the GOP appears to have a fighting chance this year of defying precedent.

Pollsters handed respondents sample messages from both parties and asked whether they found them believable. 54% called the Republican pitch credible: "Republicans say that they are returning responsibility to government by arresting criminals, closing the borders, keeping taxes low, and lowering energy costs. We can't go back to the Democrats, who were allowing our cities and way of life to deteriorate and prices on energy and food to soar while fraud took billions and billions of dollars of their giveaway programs." 

Only 48% said the same of the Democratic counter, which promised free housing, free transportation, healthcare for all, free student loan relief, and a shakedown of billionaires to pay for it. Among likely midterm voters, the GOP message drives a 46-37 advantage in vote intent. The Democratic freebie platform produces a net one-point edge for Democrats among the same group — a rounding error.

Does that mean things can’t change? Not all at. In fact, 61% of respondents said they'd be receptive to the message that "we need to stop Donald Trump. He is a runaway dictator, and we need a check on his power by returning the Congress to the Democrats. His tariffs are increasing prices, and he is off on foreign adventures." That certainly implies that Democrat messaging can work; however, after both parties' full messaging was laid out to poll respondents, Republicans moved to a 51-49 lead on the ballot, a two-point GOP shift.

Trump's approval also gives the GOP signs of hope. His net approval improved from -6 points in January to -3 in February. Among likely midterm voters, he's net positive at 50-47. The trajectory matters as much as the snapshot, and it’s up.

Beneath the horse race, the structural terrain looks even less hospitable for Democrats. 

On economic management, voters trust the Trump administration over congressional Democrats 53-47. On whether today's economy reflects Biden-era or Trump-era policy, 59% say Trump, yet 52% say things are better now than under Biden. Republicans are credited and rewarded for that, a double-win for the GOP. While both parties’ approval ratings are underwater, the GOP edges out the Democratic Party by three points. 

The policy map reinforces the GOP’s positioning for the midterms. Lowering prescription drug prices commands a staggering 80% support. Deporting illegal immigrants who have committed crimes earns 75%. A full-scale crackdown on federal fraud comes in at 71%. Capping credit-card interest rates at 10% pulls 69%, and strengthening border security to close the border draws 67%. The same pattern showed up with President Trump’s State of the Union proposals. Banning members of Congress from trading individual stocks garnered 72% support, while federal retirement matching accounts attracted 70%.

On the issue of election integrity, it’s all great numbers for the GOP. Support for national voter ID gets 81% support. Removing non-citizens from voter rolls comes in at 80%. Requiring proof of citizenship to vote earns 75%. The SAVE America Act, which packages those provisions together, wins 71% overall support, including backing from half of Democrats and 69% of independents. When voters are asked to choose what matters more, 54% say preventing fraud outweighs maximizing access. Democrats have bet heavily that voter-integrity legislation is a political loser. This poll says otherwise.

The ideological fundamentals aren't moving in the left's direction either. Capitalism beats socialism 59-41 as voters' preferred economic system, with 76% saying America should run mostly as a free-enterprise country. 91% say people should own their own homes and private property. 84% want grocery stores to be private, not state-run. This is not good news for the party of Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Zohran Mamdani.

None of this means November is a lock for the GOP. Eight months is a lifetime in American politics. But the picture that emerges from this data is of a Republican Party whose core arguments are resonating with a majority of the public, giving them a real chance to defy precedent.

Keep in mind that the poll was taken before Iran... so the next one should be interesting. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/04/2026 - 22:50

Under Beijing's Wing: Iran's Arsenal

Under Beijing's Wing: Iran's Arsenal

Authored by Zineb Riboua via Beyond the Ideological,

In 2015, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was sold to the American public and to the world as the definitive answer to Iran’s nuclear threat. The agreement placed extensive restrictions on uranium enrichment, centrifuge capacity, and stockpile levels, but said almost nothing about the one thing that would actually deliver a nuclear warhead to its target: ballistic missiles. Nothing about cruise missiles either. No limits on the development, testing, production, or deployment of the very weapons systems that transform a nuclear device from a dangerous secret in a bunker into a weapon that can destroy a city. A bomb is only as threatening as your ability to deliver it, and the JCPOA left Iran’s ability to deliver it completely unconstrained.

For Iran, this distinction matters more than it does for almost any other country on earth.

Decades of international sanctions have left Tehran with one of the weakest air forces in the region, an aging fleet incapable of penetrating the air defenses of Israel or any major Gulf state. Iran cannot deliver a nuclear weapon by aircraft. It cannot do so by sea with any reliability. The ballistic missile is the only component that gives the rest of the nuclear program strategic value.

What makes this failure even more consequential is who stepped in to exploit it.

Over the past two years, China has emerged as the principal external supplier of Iran’s ballistic missile program, providing everything from chemical precursors for solid rocket fuel to satellite guidance through its BeiDou-3 navigation network, which replaced American GPS across Iran’s entire military architecture. The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned several Chinese entities for supplying the IRGC with chemicals used in missile fuel production.

Intelligence revealed Iranian cargo ships unloading shipments of sodium perchlorate at Bandar Abbas, a substance that bypasses existing monitoring mechanisms, in quantities sufficient to produce propellant for approximately 800 new missiles in a single delivery.

Beijing had also been negotiating the sale of CM-302 supersonic anti-ship missiles to Tehran, a system designed to sink aircraft carriers. In December 2025, American special forces raided a merchant vessel in the Indian Ocean carrying Chinese military cargo bound for the Revolutionary Guards.

By the time Operation Epic Fury launched, Iran possessed the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East, an estimated 2,000 missiles of varying ranges dispersed across hardened underground facilities, rebuilt and resupplied in large part by Chinese industrial networks.

The Deferral

But let’s take a step back and look at what happened:

The Obama administration’s decision to exclude missiles from the 2015 JCPOA agreement represented a calculated concession, and more fundamentally, an act of deliberate deferral. In fact, both China and Russia categorically refused to include missile restrictions in the multilateral negotiations, and Tehran declared its indigenous missile development a non-negotiable sovereign right.

Naturally, the Obama team, determined to secure a landmark diplomatic achievement before leaving office, separated the nuclear file from the missile file entirely, treating them as two distinct problems when they formed two halves of the same threat.

Obama especially framed the deal in aspirational terms, saying it provided “an opportunity to move in a new direction,” but the direction left the missile program entirely unaddressed. In the language of UN Security Council Resolution 2231, the provisions on missiles merely “called upon” Iran not to conduct certain activities, far weaker than the binding prohibition in the prior Resolution 1929, which had explicitly prohibited Iran from pursuing ballistic missile technology capable of delivering nuclear warheads.

The administration even watered down the enforcement language of that earlier resolution to get the deal through, reasoning that missiles could be addressed later. That word, “later,” defined the entire approach. Iran tested ballistic missiles within weeks of the JCPOA entering into force, and no mechanism existed to stop it.

Free from constraint, Iran used the decade that followed to transform its missile program from a crude deterrent into a sophisticated, mass-produced strategic arsenal. It perfected guidance systems, extended ranges to cover all of the Middle East and parts of Europe, transitioned from liquid to solid-fuel propulsion, and constructed hardened underground launch facilities designed to withstand aerial bombardment. The interesting part? None of this violated a single provision of the deal.

And the missiles served a purpose beyond delivery: Iran aimed to amass such an overwhelming conventional arsenal that military action against its nuclear program would become prohibitively costly. Secretary of State Marco Rubio put today the math in stark terms: “They can build 100 ballistic missiles a month. We build 6 or 7 interceptors a month.” Each interceptor costs between $1 million and $15 million, while each Iranian missile costs between $200,000 and $500,000.

But the missiles did not stop at Israel’s borders. In the opening hours of Operation Epic Fury, Iranian retaliatory strikes slammed into civilian areas across Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Manama; debris from intercepted projectiles rained near Kuwait International Airport. In the UAE alone, three people were killed and at least 58 wounded. Iran, in this sense, was (and still is) holding Arab capitals hostage, using its missile arsenal as a coercive instrument to punish the Gulf states for daring to deepen their alignment with Washington and/or Jerusalem.

The cruelest irony is that Riyadh and Abu Dhabi saw this coming. Neither was consulted as a stakeholder during the JCPOA negotiations, and both warned — publicly and repeatedly — that any deal leaving Iran’s missile program untouched would one day endanger their populations. They were dismissed as alarmist. Iranian warheads landing on Gulf Arab soil have now settled the argument.

The Reversal

Rubio's articulation of the objectives behind Epic Fury collapsed a distinction that three decades of American diplomacy had fought to preserve. "The objectives of this operation are to destroy their ballistic missile capability and make sure they can't rebuild, and make sure that they can't hide behind that to have a nuclear program," he said. One sentence fused what the JCPOA had deliberately kept apart, the nuclear file and the missile file, and redefined what an acceptable Iran looks like.

The urgency is real. Israeli defense planners had tracked how Chinese components, machine tools, and technical guidance were accelerating Iranian production lines, and their projections pointed toward catastrophe: 5,000 missiles by 2027, potentially 10,000 by the end of the decade. Every warhead carried a Chinese fingerprint, from solid-fuel propellant chemistry to the precision guidance systems that turned inaccurate rockets into weapons capable of striking downtown Abu Dhabi. Beijing was not merely trading with Tehran.

The Chinese government was industrializing Iran’s capacity to hold the Middle East at gunpoint. Whatever Beijing’s full calculus, the military consequences of that investment are legible on at least three levels.

  • First, every interceptor the United States fires over the Middle East represents one fewer available for the Western Pacific. THAAD batteries, Patriot systems, and SM-3 carrying naval vessels all draw from the same overstretched production lines. By accelerating Iran’s missile output, China imposed a war of attrition on American munitions without deploying a single soldier.

  • Second, Every Iranian salvo also forces the United States to reveal electronic warfare capabilities, radar signatures, and interceptor performance data in real combat conditions, giving Chinese military intelligence a live laboratory to study American defense systems without ever confronting them directly.

  • Third, if the United States proved unable to shield its Arab partners from sustained bombardment, every ally watching from Tokyo to Manila to Taipei would draw the same conclusion: Washington’s promises have material limits.

The drain on American readiness had already begun.

During the twelve-day war in 2025, the United States burned through roughly 150 THAAD interceptors, munitions that take years to produce and that feed the same queue supporting Pacific deterrence.

Only a few dozen replacements followed. Iran was rebuilding faster than America could reload. Left unchecked, the math led to a devastating fork: accept Iranian nuclear breakout behind a missile shield too thick to penetrate, or fight a war in the Middle East with stockpiles earmarked for the Taiwan Strait. Beijing had engineered precisely this dilemma. Operation Epic Fury represented the decision to prevent that choice from ever arriving. By destroying the missiles, the United States turned years of Chinese strategic investment and billions in transferred technology to ash.

Subscribe to Beyond the Ideological 

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/04/2026 - 22:20

Tanker Hit By "Large Explosion" In Waters Off Kuwait, Causing Oil Spill

Tanker Hit By "Large Explosion" In Waters Off Kuwait, Causing Oil Spill

In the most dramatic escalation yet involving shipping in the Persian Gulf, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), a British naval authority responsible for monitoring shipping safety in high-risk areas, said it received a report that around 1040pm UTC, a "large explosion" took place on a tanker 30 nautical miles south east off Mubarak Al Kebeer, on the coast of Kuwait. "There is oil in the water coming from a cargo tank", which could have a disastrous environmental impact, especially if its reaches the desalinization plants that keep much of the Gulf population alive.

The tanker, which was at anchor in the Khor al-Zubair lightering zone - a critical area for loading Iraqi heavy fuel oil exports - began taking on water following the blast. Oil was seen leaking from a damaged cargo tank into the surrounding waters, prompting concerns over potential environmental impacts. Despite the severity, no fires were reported, and all crew members remained safe and accounted for. Kuwait's interior ministry later clarified that the incident took place outside the country's territorial waters, at least 60 kilometers from the port

The targeted area off Kuwait is particularly significant as it lies within Iraq's primary oil export corridor, a zone previously considered outside the main conflict perimeter. Iraq, not directly involved in the US-Iran war, has already reduced oil production due to storage shortages and loading delays caused by the broader disruptions. No group or nation has claimed responsibility for the Kuwait incident, but analysts suggest it could be linked to Iranian proxies or other actors exploiting the chaos.

The report, which was sourced to the Master of a tanker at anchor, comes as the fifth day of the conflict draw to a close, but no near end is in sight after Israel and the US hit Iran in joint strikes on several key sites on Saturday, February 28. Iran has retaliated by striking sites across the Middle East, and hitting several ships in the gulf as part of its blockade of the Straits of Hormuz. 

UKMTO said vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to the maritime operation.

This incident is hardly isolated, and is part of a widening conflict in the Middle East. The Persian Gulf has become increasingly volatile since the outbreak of hostilities between the United States and Iran, with multiple attacks on commercial and military vessels reported in recent days. For instance, prior to the explosion, a US submarine sank an Iranian frigate near Sri Lanka, an Iranian corvette was set ablaze at Bandar Abbas, and Qatar's LNG terminals suffered outages. These events have stranded hundreds of ships, including oil tankers, outside the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint for about 20% of global oil supplies.

Other recent maritime attacks in the region include a seafarer killed in an explosion off Oman on March 1 and a Russian-flagged LNG tanker sinking in the Mediterranean, blamed by Moscow on Ukrainian sea drones. These incidents underscore the expanding scope of the conflict, turning once-safe waters into high-risk zones for global trade.

The attack has immediate ramifications for energy markets. With Iraqi exports potentially hampered, oil prices could face upward pressure, exacerbating the disruptions already pricing in closures rather than mere interruptions. Shipping insurers and commodity traders are on high alert, as the Gulf's transformation into a "hunting ground" without clear boundaries threatens further escalations.

Environmentally, the oil spill poses risks to marine life and coastal ecosystems in the Persian Gulf, a region already vulnerable to pollution from decades of oil activities. Cleanup efforts will likely be complicated by the ongoing security threats.

As investigations continue, the international community watches closely, with calls for enhanced maritime security to protect vital trade routes. This event serves as a stark reminder of how regional conflicts can ripple into global economic and environmental challenges.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/04/2026 - 22:09

China-Linked Bulk Carrier Exits Strait Of Hormuz Without Incident

China-Linked Bulk Carrier Exits Strait Of Hormuz Without Incident

Maritime tracking data shows a China-linked bulk carrier exiting the Strait of Hormuz without incident, a notable development that comes just hours after a report stated Tehran would permit Chinese vessels to transit the critical maritime chokepoint, despite much of the narrow waterway being paralyzed.

Bloomberg data shows the bulk carrier Iron Maiden has successfully transited the narrowest part of the waterway without incident.

MarineTraffic data indicates the ship has a "China Owner" and has a port call in China.

Earlier, New Delhi Television reported:

Iran has said it will allow only Chinese vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz as an expression of gratitude for Beijing's stance toward Tehran since the war in the Middle East began, sources have said. This is significant because the Strait, which provides Persian Gulf ports access to the open sea, is a key chokepoint that Iran has blocked since the conflict in the region began, threatening global supply chains.

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday had plunged around 90% compared with levels seen just before Operation Epic Fury began on Saturday, according to MarineTraffic.

Iran has so far targeted ten vessels in or around the Strait. A senior IRGC official said earlier this week that the Strait is closed and that IRGC forces will fire on any ships attempting to pass.

"The Strait (of Hormuz) is closed. If anyone tries to pass, the heroes of the Revolutionary Guards and the regular navy will set those ships ablaze," Ebrahim Jabari, a senior adviser to the Guards commander-in-chief, said in remarks published by local media.

By midweek, Chinese officials had called for an immediate ceasefire in the U.S.-Iran conflict, as China's energy imports are highly exposed to the region.

The key question now is whether the Trump administration can reopen the Strait while the IRGC's drone threat may persist for months.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/04/2026 - 21:50

The Iran War Exposes The Farce Of American "Representative Democracy"

The Iran War Exposes The Farce Of American "Representative Democracy"

Authored by Ryan McMaken  via MisesInstitute,

The Trump administration has unilaterally—without any Congressional debate or vote, of course—forced Americans into yet another war. This time, the war is a large-scale military campaign against Iran. Was there any groundswell of public support for this war? Did the Congress vote to spend more American tax dollars on another war? Apparently not. According to a March 1 poll from Reuters, only 27 percent of Americans polled said they support the US’s new war on Iran. Needless to say, few Americans have been calling their representatives in Congress asking for yet another Middle Eastern war. 

So, why is the US now at war with Iran? Not even the administration appears to know for sure. After the war had already begun, the White House repeatedly changed its stated rationale for opening hostilities against Iran. At the beginning the US regime had been claiming it wanted regime change in Iran to “liberate” Iranians. Yet, by Monday, when Trump listed his reasons for starting the war, he didn’t mention regime change at all. Rather, the administration now seems to have settled on claims that the Iran regime was creating a missile program that, somehow, endangers the United States. Yet, virtually no one believes that the Iranian regime has ever had long-range missiles capable of getting anywhere near US territory. Rather, the only “threat” to the United States is a threat to US bases which the US government has insisted on building 10,000 miles from US territory, and which have nothing to do with the safety of Americans in the United States. 

On Monday, Rubio said that the United States began the war because the State of Israel planned to attack Iran, and that this would lead to Iranian reprisals against US bases. Rubio was essentially stating that Tel Aviv forced the US into the war. Trump today directly contradicted his Secretary of State—as well as the GOP Speaker of the House and GOP Senator Tom Cotton—and claimed “I might’ve forced their hand.”

Completely absent from all these confused and retroactive attempts to justify the war is any mention of the American people, their tax dollars, their freedoms, or even their alleged representatives in Congress. Nor is this surprising. The current war is a timely reminder that the US ruling elites regard the US taxpayers and ordinary Americans as little more than inconvenient afterthoughts in the formation of US foreign policy. At the same time, the US regime also claims to have the moral high ground precisely because the American regime is supposedly “democratic” with the support of “the people.” 

Indeed, the Trump administration overall has helped make it abundantly clear that US elections and public opinion are almost completely irrelevant to the foreign policy. Throughout his campaigns, Donald Trump repeatedly claimed to be the peace candidate, announcing in his speeches that he would end wars, rather than start them. In the days before the 2024 election, the GOP posted this image in social media, clearly presenting the Trump administration as “the pro-peace ticket”: 

Yet, less than a year into his second term, Donald Trump’s foreign policy looks largely indistinguishable from that of the foreign policy of Barack Obama or Joe Biden. Indeed, if the current war drags on, we’ll be able to say Trump’s foreign policy is reminiscent of the George W. Bush administration. 

It was clear during the campaign that the Trump ticket was trying to take advantage of public sentiment which favored less US involvement in foreign wars. With American foreign policy, however, elections don’t matter. This was recently emphasized by the bumbling US ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, in a recent interview with Tucker Carlson. Carlson began with a simple question for Huckabee: 

Carlson: How much does it matter what Americans think? 

Huckabee: Well, it matters every bit what Americans think.

Carlson then points out that about 21% of Americans support war with Iran. He asks Huckabee if that’s enough for the US regime to start a war with Iran. Huckabee states “We don’t live in a world where you have a poll taken to find out whether our policy should be in a particular direction...”

Carlson then points out that Huckabee had just said public opinion matters a lot and Huckabee says “we care deeply about it...”

Carlson: “If we’re ignoring it, in what sense to we ‘care deeply about it?’” 

Huckabee then offers a non sequitur: “I think we care deeply when we see there’s a threat.” Huckabee then continued with more word salad in a desperate attempt to make a connection between public opinion and his preferred policy of repeatedly starting elective wars with Middle Eastern regimes that are no threat to the US population. 

The reality, of course, is closer to Rubio’s explanation for the US’s involvement in the war: following the lead of the State of Israel. 

This is apparently fine with Ambassador Huckabee, of course, who in his Carlson interview, was asked if Huckabee thinks the State of Israel has a “right” to take over most of the Middle East. Carslon stated: ”Does Israel have the right to that land?” Huckabee responded ”It would be fine if they took it all.”

And what if most Americans don’t share this opinion? Clearly, the US regime doesn’t care, and neither does Huckabee, or Donald Trump. 

Meanwhile, Donald Trump says he doesn’t care about polling so he won’t rule out deploying American troops on the ground in Iran. 

In spite of all the US regime’s posturing about “the will of the people” and “representation” in Congress, what really matters in Washington is serving powerful interest groups. The taxpaying public simply exists as a resource to be bled dry in favor of wars, protectionism, and federal spending which serves the ruling elite’s complex system of patrons and clients that keeps the elite in power. 

When it comes to US foreign policy in the middle east, the dominant interest group is the State of Israel. This is executed through the American-Israeli Political Action Committee (AIPAC) and other elements of what foreign-policy scholars John Mearsheimer and Stephen walt call “the Israel lobby.” When Mearsheimer and Walt released their book The Israel Lobby in 2007, they were predictably accused of anti-semitism. Yet, the book was ahead of its time in describing how pro-Israel interest groups have been extremely successful in gaining financial, military, and strategic favors for Israel from US policymakers. It has all been done at the expense of American taxpayers. The result has been an American foreign policy elite that overwhelmingly favors incessant foreign intervention to favor a foreign state—the State of Israel—regardless of any concern for the cost borne by Americans or the potential for drawing the US into broader conflicts that do not in any way increase the security of the United States. 

In 2007, The Israel Lobby seemed controversial to many. In 2026, it is merely a statement of the obvious—that US foreign policy is tailored to favor certain interest group, rather than the interests of ordinary voters.  This, however, is how all interest group politics works. The voting public doesn’t matter, and it hasn’t mattered for a long time. 

This is shown in empirical studies that have tried to find a connection between public opinion and actual policies favored in Washington. The connection is tenuous at best. 

For example, in a 2014 study by Martin Gilens and Benajmin Page, the authors note that when it comes to “impacts on U.S. government policy ...  average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence.” Gilens and page note that “the preferences of economic elites ... have far more independent impact upon policy change than the preferences of average citizens do.” 

This can be seen in Trump’s own fundraising given how one of his biggest donors, billionaire Miriam Adelson, is notable for an extreme pro-Israel position. This is, not surprisingly, reflected in Trump’s foreign policy. 

The final conclusions of Gilens and Page are clear: 

In the United States, our findings indicate, the majority does not rule—at least not in the causal sense of actually determining policy outcomes. When a majority of citizens disagrees with economic elites or with organized interests, they generally lose. Moreover, because of the strong status quo bias built into the U.S. political system, even when fairly large majorities of Americans favor policy change, they generally do not get it. 

Perhaps no group of “economic elites” is more influential in foreign policy than those who control campaign funds distributed through pro-Israel interest groups like AIPAC, or through the spending of wealthy individuals like Adelson. 

Other studies have come to similar conclusions. For example, in a 2017 paper on voter preferences, John Matsusake concluded that legislator preferences don’t correlate with voter preferences:

[W]hen legislator preferences differed from district opinion on an issue, legislators voted congruent with district opinion only 29 percent of the time. The data do not show a reliable connection between congruence and competitive election, term limits, campaign contributions, or media attention. The evidence is most consistent with the assumption of a citizen-candidate model that legislators vote their own preferences.

There is, of course, no such thing as a “district opinion,” but the general idea is clear enough: if a legislator’s campaign war chest depends on pleasing a specific interest group, then the preferences of the voters don’t really matter. 

Similarly, in a 2016 study from Michael Barber, he writes on how votes in the US Senate bear little relation to public opinion: “[S]enators’ preferences diverge dramatically from the preference of the average voter in their state. The degree of divergence is nearly as large as if voters were randomly assigned to a senator.”

So, if policymakers are largely independent of the voters who the policymakers ostensibly “represent,” then what determines federal policy? 

The current war is just the latest reminder that pluralism is wrong and elite theory is right. There is no “we the people.” There is no “representative democracy.” And, when it comes to the big stuff like war, federal spending, and the central bank, elections don’t matter. It’s why, no matter who gets elected, US foreign policy proceeds more or less as usual, year after year after year. 

This is why it doesn’t matter that only about one in four Americans is interested in being on the hook for yet another Middle Eastern war with no apparent benefits for any average American. This is why the administration continues to engage in shifting claims about the origins of this conflict. The administration knows that claims about Iran being a threat to the American people are not tenable, and are on the same level as claims about Iraqi WMDs. Nor can the regime just come right out at say “our pro-Israel funders told us to fight Iran.” So, we have Rubio telling us the war was a “preemptive strike” against the potential blowback from US-funded Israeli strikes on Iran. This explanation is already falling apart, which is why Trump now denies it. 

In the end, the regime doesn’t even really need to come up with a plausible explanation. The political fallout will settle largely on the current administration, and this will have little effect on the real governing elite which remains in control regardless which party is ostensibly “in power.” 

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/04/2026 - 21:20

The Global Race To Unlock Nuclear Fusion

The Global Race To Unlock Nuclear Fusion

Authored by Felicity Bradstock via oilprice.com,

Governments worldwide have been racing to unlock the secret to nuclear fusion energy for several decades, with the aim of producing abundant, clean energy. While several generation milestones have been achieved in recent years, accomplishing commercial-scale production continues to be extremely complex. However, with more recent successes, are we edging closer to achieving this goal and producing vast quantities of clean power?

Nuclear fusion is the process that powers the sun and stars. Fusion takes place when two atomic nuclei – typically formed of hydrogen – are combined into a heavier nucleus, which releases a large quantity of energy. The difficulty in achieving this process is that scientists must recreate extreme temperatures and pressures that cause fusion in stars on Earth.

By contrast, nuclear fission – the method currently used to produce nuclear power – occurs when the central core of an atom, known as the nucleus, of uranium or plutonium, splits into two smaller nuclei. Splitting the core results in the release of a large amount of energy and the creation of additional neutrons, which can go on to split more atoms in a chain reaction. The chain reaction allows nuclear reactors to produce a stable supply of energy.

Fusion energy is extremely attractive as it could provide massive amounts of clean power at a time when the electricity demand is soaring. Just one gramme of fusion fuel could supply 90,000 kilowatt-hours of energy in a power plant, compared to the power produced from around 11 tonnes of coal. Fusion plants are also viewed as very safe, as they do not have the same risks as in fission plants, such as reactions, meltdowns or high-level, long-lived radioactive waste. This also means that fusion facilities may be easier to gain licenses for than fission plants.

In recent years, advancements in the generation of fusion power have mainly been seen in the private sector. In the United States, a site in Virginia was established for the development of the world’s first grid-scale commercial fusion power plant, to supply clean fusion electricity to the grid by the early 2030s. The U.S. Office of Fusion is focused on making this dream a reality.

Elsewhere, China is investing billions of dollars a year in advancing its fusion capabilities. In January, researchers in China broke through a long-standing density barrier in fusion plasma using the “artificial sun” fusion reactor – the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST).

The experiment confirmed that plasma can remain stable even at extreme densities if its interaction with the reactor walls is carefully controlled. This finding removes a major obstacle that has slowed progress toward fusion ignition and could help future fusion reactors produce more power.

The findings suggest a practical and scalable pathway for extending density limits in tokamaks and next-generation burning plasma fusion devices,” the project’s co-lead, Ping Zhu, of Huazhong University of Science and Technology, stated of the breakthrough.

Researchers have also extended plasma durations beyond previous benchmarks at the WEST reactor in France and KSTAR in South Korea. These successes have led to the construction of ITER, a 23,000-ton reactor in southern France. More than 30 countries are supporting ITER’s development, with the hope that it will be able to produce more power than it consumes in a fusion process. It will include the world’s most powerful magnet, the central solenoid.

Meanwhile, Germany is creating a funding programme as part of its Fusion Action Plan for startups and several states around the globe, including the United Kingdom and Japan, and adopting regulatory frameworks to provide certainty to developers, according to the World Economic Forum. “With the Fusion Action Plan, we are paving the way for the world’s first fusion power plant in Germany,” explained Germany’s Minister for Research, Technology and Space, Dorothee Bär.

And, in Canada, the government recently announced the launch of a new Centre for Fusion Energy in Ontario, to be built using $33 million from the federal government and Crown corporation Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd., $19.5 million from the Ontario government and Crown corporation Ontario Power Generation, and $39 million from fusion startup Stellarex Group Ltd. The aim of the government is to develop a demonstration reactor, although it has not yet provided a timeline for this.

Nolan Quinn, Minister of Colleges, Universities, Research Excellence and Security, stated, “Ontario’s world-renowned researchers are driving the energy sector into a new era of clean energy.” Quinn added, “Through this investment, our government is leveraging our province’s position as a nuclear powerhouse to fuel fusion energy discoveries that will advance our industries, build our energy workforce and protect Ontario.”

Governments worldwide are investing huge quantities of funding into nuclear fusion research and development, with the hope of making a breakthrough to produce abundant, clean power.  With global electricity demand set to soar in the coming years, particularly due to the deployment of complex technologies, such as artificial intelligence, a breakthrough in fusion power could help significantly reduce the world’s dependence on fossil fuels and support a global green transition

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/04/2026 - 17:15

Visualizing Iran's Vast Size & Why Any Ground Invasion Means Years-Long Quagmire

Visualizing Iran's Vast Size & Why Any Ground Invasion Means Years-Long Quagmire

Most Americans have little understanding or concept of Iran's size in terms of geography or population. The ethno-religious make-up of the sprawling Mideast/West Asian nation is also deeply important, given the US is already talking about arming and supporting some kind of Kurdish-led anti-Tehran ground operation. 

Suffice it to say, Iran's population is more than double (over 90 million people) that of neighboring Iraq's. Iran is also the size of almost half the European continent. All of this is crucial for attempting to visualize what American military escalation there might mean, given the Trump White House has not ruled out American boots on the ground amid the unfolding 'Operation Epic Fury'. Consider: the US spent two blood-soaked decades occupying Iraq (again, significantly smaller than the Islamic Republic). Russia has spent over four years on its military operation in Ukraine, and Iran dwarfs Ukraine in size.

And here's Iran's size overlaying the European continent.

Next: Size of Iran vs. Alaska (with the continental USA for scale). Imagine a war that covered some nearly one-third of the continental United States, and also imagine an outside force trying to pacify a population of 90 million within that vast geography. 

Iran and Alaska are similar in massive land expanse: 

  • Alaska: 1.723 million km² ≈ 665,000 mi² (about 17.4% of USA)

  • Iran: 1.648 million km² ≈ 636,300 mi² (about 16.7% of USA)

  • USA: 9.867 million km² ≈ 3,810,000 mi²

Another look: Iran is far bigger than Texas.

It is also significantly bigger than Iraq.

Importantly, the single deadliest Middle East war in the modern-ear was the Iran-Iraq war. From 1980 to1988 these enemies sharing a common border fought a ground and artillery war to stalemate. It was an utterly disastrous war of attrition, and at that time the United States actually covertly supported Iraq under Saddam Hussein in order to weaken Iran.

But Iran persisted through even that, which gives some idea of what it might be able to endure while facing a war for its very survival and existence with the US and Israel.

The number of casualties in the Iran-Iraq War ranges from 1,000,000 to twice that number. The number killed on both sides was perhaps 500,000, with Iran suffering the greatest losses. It is estimated that between 50,000 and 100,000 Kurds were killed by Iraqi forces during the series of campaigns that took place in 1988. —Britannica

TEHRAN city size: Comparable to New York City.

Any ground invasion necessitates exhausting, grinding urban warfare including room and building clearing by infantry troops.

Many American veterans of the Iraq war have stories of grueling building clearing operations in places like Baghdad or Fallujah which could take five to eight hours to carefully and systematically clear a single large city building. Marine veterans would tell you large building room-clearing is the most physically demanding and ultra-risky task of any infantryman. 

The Iranian capital of Tehran has a population of approaching 10 million, while the greater cosmopolitan area has some 16 million people

Tehran's population is estimated at 9.5m (16.8m including the metropolitan area). Its size and density are comparable to New York City: regionally, it is on a par with Cairo and Istanbul. -Middle East Eye

Tehran: A vast, modern cosmopolitan city, packed with civilians, now under US-Israeli 'shock and awe' style bombardment.

Adobe Stock image

As US-Israeli military planners know full-well, Iraq had descended into sectarian chaos soon after the 2003 US invasion, and a similar ethno-sectarian scenario could play out in Iran, though the Persian people tend to have greater national unity compared to that of neighboring Iraq.

The CIA and Mossad are reportedly already exploring trying to peel off one of Iran's large ethnic minorities, like the Kurds.

Source: CIA World Factbook (2016)

It just so happens that the Kurdish-dominant far northwest is filled with mountainous, rocky terrain.

This means any effort to launch some kind of ground civil war or unrest against the Iranian state by Kurdish proxies would surely be difficult, slow, and grinding - and terrain might be in Tehran forces' favor.

We will leave off this brief visual tour with a quote that commonly gets attributed to one well-known American author, who famously wrote the book aptly titled The Innocents Abroad.

"God created war so that Americans would learn geography."

― Mark Twain

* * *

What a ground invasion of any country means: brutal street by street, house-to-house combat...

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/04/2026 - 16:50

Trump's Venezuela Oil Plan Runs Into Hard Reality

Trump's Venezuela Oil Plan Runs Into Hard Reality

Authored by Andrew Topf via oilprice.com,

Last week US President Donald Trump announced that Venezuela’s interim authorities will turn over up to 50 million barrels of oil to the United States, before later declaring his administration will control Venezuela's oil sales “indefinitely”.

Decrying the state of Venezuela’s oil sector, including that the South American country now pumps a fraction of what it used to, Trump said, “We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies — the biggest anywhere in the world — go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country.”

While that sounds like a great opportunity for the US oil majors, it’s one they may want to refuse. Why? Because the oil underneath Venezuela, which has the largest crude reserves in the world, greater even than Saudi Arabia and Iran, is technically challenging to extract and costly.

Moreover, it’s uncertain whether there would a change in the way Venezuela and its oil industry are being run, which presents a huge political risk for companies to return and operate there.

Former President Hugo Chavez nationalized the oil industry in the 1990s, and in 2007, he forced Exxon and ConocoPhillips out, after the companies refused to accept new terms that would give the Venezuelan state oil company, PDVSA, a majority share in their projects.

ConocoPhillips is still owed about $10 billion.

Only Chevron is currently authorized to operate in Venezuela and export crude to the United States.

“Until Caracas has a new government capable of gaining the confidence of international investors and banks, oil companies will be reluctant to make any major commitments,” states a recent Reuters piece.

When Trump met with oil executives last Friday, Exxon’s CEO Darren Woods said, “We’ve had our assets seized there twice, and so you can imagine to re-enter a third time would require some pretty significant changes.”

Trump has said the US government is prepared to provide security guarantees but not money for oil projects.

How much oil does Venezuela have?

A founding member of OPEC, Venezuela has more oil reserves than any OPEC member and top exporters in the Gulf, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Iran.

The country is estimated to hold 303 billion barrels in proven reserves, about 17% of the world’s total, and more than five times the United States’ 55 billion barrels.

Most is contained within the Orinoco Belt — a vast territory in eastern Venezuela stretching about 600 kilometers from east to west and 70 km from north to south, with an area of roughly 55,314 square kilometers.

The belt is divided into four exploration and production areas: Boyacá, Junín, Ayacucho and Carabobo.

Most Orinoco Belt operations are controlled by PDVSA (Petroleos de Venezuela, SA), which has faced challenges including aging infrastructure, underinvestment, mismanagement and the effects of sanctions.

Venezuela has thus been unable to fully exploit its vast reserves. While it once exported 3.5 million barrels a day, that has been reduced to about 1mbpd.

$100 billion investment required

According to Francisco Monaldi, the director of Latin American energy policy at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, returning Venezuela’s production to its 1970s peak would require an annual investment by US oil majors of $10 billion for the next decade, or $100 billion in total.

Just maintaining Venezuela’s oil production at current levels would cost $53 billion over the next 15 years, as per estimates from Rystad Energy, a consulting firm. Raising it above 1.4Mbpd would likely require another $120 billion between now and 2040.

Extraction challenges

Venezuela’s oil is extra-heavy crude, which means it is highly viscous and dense, making it harder and more expensive to extract than conventional crude. Aljazeera notes that Producing oil from this region requires advanced techniques, such as steam injection and blending with lighter crudes to make it marketable.

Because of its density and sulphur content, extra-heavy crude usually sells at a discount compared with lighter, sweeter crudes.

While US Gulf Coast refineries have been designed to handle heavy crude like Venezuela’s and Canada’s, the product’s economic viability at low oil prices is questionable.

Reuters states: Breakeven costs for key grades in the Orinoco belt already average more than $80 a barrel, according to estimates by consultancy Wood Mackenzie. That places Venezuelan oil at the higher end of the global cost scale for new production. By comparison, heavy oil produced in Canada has an average breakeven cost of around $55 a barrel.

That means at current oil prices of around $60 a barrel, Venezuelan oil is uneconomic.

There may also be a significant gap between potential and actual oil production. Consider: Proven reserves are defined as those with a 90% probability of recovery, based on the identified crude, and whether existing technology can extract it while remaining commercially viable.

Venezuela’s estimates are self-reported, meaning they could be exaggerated. Furthermore, according to another Reuters piece, OPEC declared Venezuela’s proven reserves the world’s largest in 2011, when oil was over $100 a barrel. But Orinoco oil is full of impurities like sulfur and nickel, making it expensive to produce and difficult to refine. “Price is therefore crucial to its viability.”

In fact, estimated reserves may remain theoretical unless prices spike, and a more realistic estimate of Venezuelan oil reserves is 60 billion barrels, according to Rystad Energy.

The bottom line? Oil prices need to rise at least $20 a barrel to make Venezuelan heavy oil economically extractable. Even if that is enough to entice US oil majors back there, they will need security guarantees from the US government so that their projects won’t be expropriated like they were in the past. How committed is the Trump administration to protecting the interests of its oil companies operating in a foreign country with a history of nationalization?

Political risk in Venezuela is off the charts right now, making foreign investment challenging to say the least. So don’t believe the Trump hype about American companies jumping in to revive the Venezuelan oil industry. As one commentator summed up the situation, “The world probably doesn’t need a lot more high-cost, dirty oil. The dream of a transformational deluge of Venezuelan crude will probably remain illusory.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/04/2026 - 16:25

The 10 Most Common Medications Americans Are Taking

The 10 Most Common Medications Americans Are Taking

Authored by George Citroner via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Americans are popping pills at a rate that might surprise even their doctors—and most of what they’re taking, they chose themselves.

The Epoch Times/Shutterstock

Nearly two-thirds of U.S. adults take at least one pill each week, and one in six takes five or more, according to a recent study published in JAMA, highlighting how central medications—both over-the-counter and prescription—are to everyday health.

Researchers surveyed 21,000 volunteers aged 18 and older between 2023 and 2024 to discover the most common drugs Americans are taking.

Top 10 Drugs Taken by Americans

The top 10 drugs identified by researchers provide a snapshot of the most common health concerns among Americans.

According to the study data, the four drugs occupying the top spots are acetaminophen, ibuprofen, aspirin, and naproxen, all of which are over-the-counter anti-inflammatory drugs that help to treat fevers and moderate pain.

Among prescription drugs, atorvastatin (used to lower cholesterol), lisinopril (for blood pressure), and levothyroxine (for thyroid conditions) were the most frequently reported.

Less common over-the-counter drugs include diphenhydramine, most familiar as Benadryl, an antihistamine used to treat fevers and allergies, and omeprazole, a drug for acid reflux, which ranks ninth among over-the-counter drugs.

Who Is Taking What

Women were more likely to report medication use than men—67 percent versus 57 percent.

Women also showed higher use of levothyroxine (thyroid replacement) and anti-histamines, while men more commonly reported taking atorvastatin (lowers cholesterol) and metformin, used to treat Type 2 diabetes.

Participants were asked to recall their medication use over the previous seven days, aided by sample labels and prompts about common ailments and medical history to improve recall accuracy. Researchers categorized medications by active ingredients and excluded herbal supplements and topical treatments.

Risk of Adverse Drug Interactions

The findings arrive with a warning that experts say too few patients hear: Over-the-counter does not mean risk-free.

Researchers found that medication use could swiftly add up, with one in six adults reporting they took five or more medications in the past week, and 3.3 percent saying they took 10 or more.

“Many people don’t realize these drugs can interact with their prescriptions or add to side effects, especially older adults taking multiple medications,” Reshma Patel, pharmacist and Dallas-based founder of WiseMedRx, where she partners with families to review patients’ medications and identify unnecessary or high-risk drugs, and not involved in the survey, told The Epoch Times.

Daily pain relievers, for example, can affect the kidneys or stomach when combined with other meds, she noted. The bigger issue, she added, isn’t one single drug; it’s that medications are often started and never reassessed. “Over time, these cumulative effects can become serious.”

Tawna L. Mangosh, assistant professor in the Department of Pharmacology and director of the of the Translational Pharmaceutical Science Program, at Case Western Reserve University Medical School, and not involved in the survey, flagged pain and fever medications, which contain acetaminophen, ibuprofen, aspirin, and naproxen, as the over-the-counter (OTC) category of greatest concern, given how frequently they appear in combination cold and flu products. These include sleep aids, cough suppressants, decongestants, laxatives, and proton pump inhibitors.

Many are combination products with multiple active ingredients,” she told The Epoch Times. “These medications carry risks and are not appropriate for every patient, especially those with certain underlying conditions. That’s why education around OTC products is so critical.”

Smarter Use, Not Less Access

Both experts stopped short of calling for tighter restrictions. The answer, Patel argued, lies in better systems, not fewer options.

The solution isn’t to limit access, it’s about smarter use,” Patel said, emphasizing that pharmacists should play a bigger role at the point of sale, and helping patients spot potential interactions. “Clearer labeling, better public education, and routine medication reviews for anyone on multiple therapies can go a long way toward keeping people safe,” she said.

Mangosh agreed, urging patients to read labels carefully. “As use remains high, this reinforces the importance of ensuring patients understand both the benefits and the risks of what they are taking,” she said. “That includes carefully reading medication labels, paying attention to active ingredients, dosing instructions, and warnings, and knowing when to seek additional medical care.”

A Shift Since the 1990s

The study observed distinct shifts in drug use patterns compared to data from the late 1990s.

While the top three medications—acetaminophen, ibuprofen, and aspirin—have held their top positions consistently, pseudoephedrine, once widely used for nasal congestion, saw a marked decline in use after regulatory restrictions in 2005 placed it behind the pharmacy counter and limited purchase quantities.

Meanwhile, loratadine (an antihistamine) and omeprazole (for acid reflux) increased in use after regulatory decisions made these drugs available over the counter, reflecting how regulatory decisions can rapidly reshape what Americans reach for.

The researchers highlight that this widespread medication use emphasizes the importance of ensuring access while balancing safety.

They noted that increasing drug accessibility could potentially lower health care costs—since prescription medications often require doctor visits and higher expenses—but also raised concerns about misuse or adverse effects.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/04/2026 - 15:35

Article 5 Looming: NATO Shoots Down Iranian Ballistic Missile Fired At Turkey

Article 5 Looming: NATO Shoots Down Iranian Ballistic Missile Fired At Turkey

There's looming fear that Trump's Operation Epic Fury is fast spinning into a broader regional war, even a possible WW3 scenario - though large powers like Russia and China are expected to remain on the sidelines. 

Illustrating this potential, on Wednesday a ballistic missile launched from Iran and tracked across Iraqi and Syrian airspace before heading toward Turkish territory was shot down by NATO air defenses, according to Turkey's Defense Ministry.

Open source file image: Launcher for Iranian Zolfaghar ballistic missiles

NATO Article 5 potential? Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth was quick to downplay the issue, saying in a fresh briefing: "On the matter with Turkey, I'll have to get back to you on exactly what the intercept looked like," before adding, "We're aware of that particular engagement, although no sense that it would trigger anything like Article 5."  

In a sharply worded statement Wednesday, the Turkey's Defense Ministry laid out, "A ballistic munition launched from Iran, which was detected passing through Iraqi and Syrian airspace and heading towards Turkish airspace, was engaged in a timely manner by NATO air and missile defense assets stationed in the eastern Mediterranean and rendered inactive."

No casualties have been reported in the highly alarming incident, though Ankara stressed it "reserves the right to respond" to any hostile act, and urged all sides to show restraint. 

Turkey has reportedly summoned the Iranian ambassador, while Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan lodged a formal protest with FM Abbas Araghchi, warning that "any steps that could further widen the conflict must be avoided," according to Reuters.

Naturally, NATO quickly lined up behind Ankara, with a command statement condemning Iran's "targeting of Turkey" while declaring the alliance "stands firmly with all Allies, including Turkiye."

"Our deterrence and defence posture remains strong across all domains, including when it comes to air and missile defense," the NATO statement said.

Meanwhile the situation in the eastern Mediterranean is increasingly tense. Cyprus temporarily shut airspace over Larnaca after detecting what authorities called a suspicious object Wednesday. Over the weekend, an Iranian-made drone caused minor damage at a UK military base on the EU member island-nation, with two additional drones shot down Monday.

Meanwhile, already talk of a ground war?

The White House last week kept touting that any potential Iran action would be a "limited" operation, but it's only day five and we are seeing NATO air engagements of Iranian ballistic missiles over Turkey and the Mediterranean, a stunning escalation in its own right.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/04/2026 - 15:15

Typical US Homeowners Stay 12 Years In Their Homes - 20 Years In Los Angeles

Typical US Homeowners Stay 12 Years In Their Homes - 20 Years In Los Angeles

Authored by Mary Prenon via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

U.S. homeowners stayed in their houses for about 12 years as of 2025—the longest median time since 2022.

A view of houses in a neighborhood in Los Angeles on July 5, 2022. Frederic Brown/AFP via Getty Images

In a March 4 report, Redfin noted that the “stay put” trend peaked at 13.4 years in 2020, then gradually declined every year until 2024, when it hit 11.8 years. Last year’s rising home costs and interest rates led to an uptick to 12 years.

High mortgage rates and home prices perpetuate a cycle that locks up housing inventory,” Redfin’s head of economics research, Chen Zhao, said in the report.

“It can keep existing homeowners in place and financially discourage them from moving to a different home or a different neighborhood, which drives prices up even higher for first-timers trying to break into the market.”

However, Zhao noted that there has been a slight improvement in housing affordability as interest rates recently dipped below 6 percent for the first time in more than three years. Freddie Mac reported the average rate as of Feb. 26 at 5.98 percent for a 30-year, fixed mortgage and 5.44 percent for a 15-year fixed rate loan.

Still, homeowners are holding onto their houses for almost twice as long as they were in the early 2000s. In 2005, for example, the typical homeowner stayed for just 6.5 years before selling.

Over the next two decades, Americans began to stay longer as the population grew older. Now, the report indicates, baby boomers and Gen Xers may be more likely to want to age in place because of financial incentives such as being mortgage-free or having much lower mortgage payments than new homeowners starting out today. Older generations are also less likely to relocate for a new job or to grow their families.

A 2024 Redfin analysis found that empty-nest baby boomers owned 28 percent of America’s three-bedroom-plus homes—twice as many as millennials with children.

In ultra high-priced regions such as Los Angeles, homeowners stayed in their houses even longer, with an average of 20 years—the longest in the nation. This represents an increase from 19.4 years in 2024. Redfin put the median home price in Los Angeles at $975,000 as of January.

Redfin’s analysis of other major California metro areas shows similar results. In San Jose, homeowners stayed an average of 18.7 years, and in San Francisco, 16.5 years. Median home prices for January in these metros stood at $1.62 million and $1.3 million, respectively.

In San Diego, where the median home price was $970,000, residents spent an average of 14.5 years in their homes. Riverside homeowners stay for about 12.4 years. Median home prices there were reported at $600,000 as of January.

“California’s tax laws incentivize homeowners to stay in their homes for a long time,” the report states.

“Proposition 13, which was adopted in 1978, locks owners into low property taxes, discouraging them from moving and taking on a higher tax rate.”

As a result, the supply of homes is limited and tends to push prices higher.

The report showed that homeowner tenure increased from 2024 to 2025 in 28 of the 41 metros analyzed. Raleigh, North Carolina, and Denver experienced the biggest hikes in tenure during the same period.

Additional metros with home stays surpassing 15 years include Cleveland, New Orleans, Philadelphia, New York City; Memphis, Tennessee; Richmond, Virginia; and Providence, Rhode Island.

At the opposite end, Louisville, Kentucky, had the shortest home tenure of the 41 metros at 8.3 years, followed by Las Vegas at 8.8 years. Charlotte, North Carolina; Tampa and Orlando in Florida, and Nashville all recorded home stays of a little over nine years.

“When home prices are lower, it’s typically easier for homeowners to sell and move on because they’re not taking on an ultra-high mortgage payment on their next house,” the report states.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/04/2026 - 14:55

Pages