"Screw You Guys, I'm Going Home!": The South Park Market Of 2026

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

I have been a “South Park” fan for as long as I can remember, and while the show isn’t a market guidebook, its brutal satire cuts through nonsense better than many Wall Street commentaries. Just like on the show, characters make absurd decisions and face absurd consequences, which is familiar to investors today. For example, one of my favorite scenes is when Stanley goes to the bank to deposit the money his Grandmother gave him into an account at the bank…“And It’s Gone.”

Notably, in South Park, Eric Cartman once declared, “Screw you guys, I’m going home.” That line has become shorthand for frustration and fatigue when chaos overwhelms you during market volatility. For example, during the “Liberation Day” market decline, many investors sold out just as the market reached its bottom. The increase in market volatility was something we wrote about this time last year in “Curb Your Enthusiasm.” Notably, the same market dynamics that existed then persist today. Such suggests that investing in 2026 may also experience similar increases in volatility. That means anyone looking for a simple road map will end up feeling like Cartman walking out on his friends.

To avoid being Cartman, it is critical to understand that 2026 will not deliver certainty. Instead, investors should focus and make decisions based on probabilities backed by data, earnings trends, policy shifts, and macro signals. Wall Street analysts have already begun issuing universally bullish forecasts, some more cautious than others. However, while there are no guarantees of outcomes, a shifting environment of volatility and complexity is expected.

This article breaks the 2026 outlook into three cornerstone sections:

1. Market Structure and Valuations

2. Economic Forces and Policy Drivers

3. Strategic Investment Implications

Across each section, you will see the same economic truth South Park illustrates: Chaos is not the opposite of order. Chaos is part of the system.

Market Structure and Valuations in 2026

Wall Street begins 2026 with conflicting signals. As noted above, while several Wall Street firms expect to see another year of “double-digit” gains in 2026, such follows three consecutive years of elevated gains. That is potentially a risk as discussed in the “Market Outlook For 2026,”

“The current 3-year return is 18% above its 3-year average. While that is not the highest level on record, when the index trades significantly above its moving average, volatility tends to rise. These periods often see sharp drawdowns, and corrections become more frequent, with increased variance in returns leading to larger losses in downturns, which compounds the problem. Secondly, there are declining risk-adjusted returns. When returns deviate significantly from the trend, future returns tend to revert toward the mean. This mean reversion is driven by stretched valuations resetting. Over time, high volatility and large price swings reduce compound returns. Even if average returns remain positive, the math of compounding is compromised by losses, weakening full-cycle gains.”

Secondly, the markets currently trade at record levels above their long-term exponential growth trend. As shown in the chart below, when valuations rise unchecked, the market grossly exceeds its long-term exponential growth trend, eventually leading to a reversion.

Lastly, valuations remain above long‑term historical norms. Crucially, as discussed in a recent #BullBearReport:

“Market valuation measures are just that—a measure of current valuation. Moreover, market valuations are a much better measure of “investor psychology” and a manifestation of the “greater fool theory.” This is why a high correlation exists between one-year trailing valuations and consumer confidence in higher stock prices.”

Simply, this means that current valuations are just a reflection of the “hope” that future earnings growth and profitability will justify overpaying for assets today. Wall Street’s 2026 forecast for the markets represents that “hope.”

However, what we do know today is that the most powerful force in finance is “mean reversion.” As all the charts above demonstrate, at some point over the next five years, market returns will likely be closer to 0% than 10%.

Of course, that doesn’t mean markets will “crash” in 2026. However, price deviations, excess valuations, and elevated sentiment do suggest that market volatility will likely be higher and returns lower than current expectations. Such is particularly the case if something happens that causes Wall Street to lower forward earnings expectations. It is worth noting that historically, valuations have not always caught up with earnings, but rather vice versa.

That scenario is when the Cartman line feels most appropriate: “Screw you guys, I’m going home.” Because investors will shift from an optimistic to a defensive position almost instantly.

Drivers Shaping 2026

Markets do not exist in a vacuum. Earnings “expectations” are what will matter the most, but earnings are influenced by macro forces such as inflation, interest rates, global growth, and monetary policy. Currently, many of those factors are not favorable to those more elevated forecasts.

For example, inflation remains a central concern with major investment banks and strategists cautioning that inflation may hover above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target as the labor market weakens. Jerome Powell even noted this in the December FOMC policy statement. During Powell’s press conference, he emphasized that job gains have slowed and downside risks to employment have increased. That statement aligns with our recent article on how alternative employment sources may affect its outlook. Powell went further, suggesting official payroll figures likely overstate job growth by around 60,000 jobs per month. That implies an actual labor market contraction. It further acknowledges that the potential negative payroll growth was a pivotal signal of the Fed’s priorities.

Such is crucial to forward expectations, because the markets are closely tied to both fiscal and monetary actions. While the Fed signaled possible rate cuts in 2026, if inflation does not subside as expected, rate cuts may be limited or postponed, which would negatively impact investor confidence. Famed investors often warn that policy surprises matter more than policy intentions, especially when markets are priced for optimism.

Secondly, internationally, growth forecasts are uneven. Credit rating agencies project moderate but uneven expansion across major economies, with emerging markets often outpacing developed markets in GDP growth. That imbalance creates divergence in asset returns and credit flows. However, given that the Euro area is expected to grow at roughly half the rate of the US, it would be unsurprising to see 2025’s outperformance by international markets, relative to the US, reverse.

In such environments, currency fluctuations and trade dynamics become even more crucial, meaning that a strong U.S. dollar rally or slowing global trade could pressure multinational earnings even if domestic sales hold up.

Lastly, leverage is a growing risk of market volatility disruption. As we discussed in “The DPI Link To Margin Debt,” household allocations to equities are at a record. Of course, such should be unsurprising given the strong market advances over the past few years.

However, this surge in allocations has also been accompanied by a massive expansion in leverage. Currently, margin debt as a percentage of real DPI has been reported at around 6.23 %, the highest on record. This ratio also suggests that for every $100 of real DPI, roughly $6 of margin debt is outstanding, a substantial amount. But that number doesn’t include the additional leverage taken on by investors through speculative option trading and 2x and 3x leveraged ETFs, which are also being bought on margin.

As we concluded:

“Naturally, when fresh savings are lacking and investors turn to margin to participate in markets, two risks emerge.“

1. The quality of the investor base weakens because borrowed money replaces savings.

2. The carrying cost of that borrowing becomes more salient when interest rates are elevated. If the margin debt carries higher interest and investors’ income growth is weak, servicing the debt becomes harder, reducing the buffer against loss.

“In summary, weak DPI growth, combined with elevated margin borrowing, creates a vulnerability. In such an environment, the investor base is much less resilient.”

Does any of this mean the markets are going to crash in 2026? No.

However, investors should be aware that all these forces interact in complex ways. Recognizing that macroeconomic data releases, policy shifts, and geopolitical events can lead to short-term volatility and long-term trend adjustments is crucial for navigating the “South Park” market in 2026.

South Park Wisdom for Investors

South Park often shows characters reacting emotionally to chaos. Yet mature investors must behave differently and recognize that emotion is not a strategy. However, understanding the data, identifying the probabilities versus possibilities, and maintaining risk controls are critical to success in 2026.

If you feel like shouting, “Screw you guys, I’m going home,” in the face of market moves, take a beat. Markets do not need your commitment; they reward discipline and patience.

In 2026, implement portfolio tactics to participate with the market if the bullish forecasts come to fruition, but protect your wealth in case they don’t.

• Diversify beyond tech leaders: Shift allocations gradually toward underappreciated sectors, such as healthcare, industrials, energy, and consumer staples, which demonstrate earnings strength and stable demand.

• Rebalance quarterly: Trim overextended positions, especially in momentum names. Reallocate into lagging but fundamentally sound assets.

• Build cash buffers: Hold 5% to 15% in short‑duration cash equivalents to deploy during volatility or price dislocations.

• Use tactical hedges: Add protective puts or inverse ETFs to limit downside on core equity holdings in concentrated portfolios.

• Add exposure to high‑quality bonds: Reallocate from speculative credit into high‑grade corporate or Treasury ladders as yields remain favorable.

• Favor earnings momentum over hype: Focus on stocks delivering real EPS growth over those driven by thematic speculation or valuation expansion alone.

• Reduce concentration in crowded trades: Limit exposure to AI and mega‑cap tech where positioning is crowded and narrative risk is high.

• Be cautious with international diversification: Developed market and emerging market ETFs are at risk of slower future growth and may be overvalued relative to their respective economies.

• Adjust risk models for higher volatility: Updating drawdown expectations and rebalancing portfolio risk targets accordingly.

• Track earnings revisions monthly: Stay nimble and reduce positions in companies issuing weaker forward guidance or showing margin compression.

• Treat narratives as signals, not strategies: Use themes like AI, reshoring, or inflation narratives to inform ideas, but confirm with real data and balance sheet strength.

These actions position your portfolio for resilience, rather than reliance on a single scenario, while preserving flexibility to capitalize on market shifts throughout 2026. Like any complex system, markets blend risk and opportunity. Recognizing where probability exceeds speculation is the difference between reacting like Cartman and investing with purpose.

Stay informed, stay disciplined, and treat “chaos” as part of the landscape, not a reason to abandon the field.

That is how you navigate the market in 2026.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/23/2026 - 10:20

UMich Sentiment Bounces To 5-Month High As Democrats Realize Their Insane Inflation Fears Were Wrong

Having ended 2025 at the lowest Current Conditions Sentiment levels in, well, ever... expectations for preliminary January data were for a modest rebound... and it did...notably more than expected (and a pick up from the flash print):

• The preliminary January sentiment index climbed to 56.4 from 52.9 in December, according to the University of Michigan (better than the 54.0 expected and 54.0 flash print).

• The expectations index rose to a six-month high of 55.4. The survey reflected improvements in both the short- and long-term economic outlooks.

• The current conditions gauge climbed to a three-month high after slipping to a record-low in December. Consumers’ perception of their current financial situation improved in January, while expectations declined.

That is the best headline print since August (highest expectations since July)...

Source: Bloomberg

While the overall improvement was small, UMich Survey Director Joanne Hsu admits "it was broad based, seen across the income distribution, educational attainment, older and younger consumers, and Republicans and Democrats alike."

Year-ahead inflation expectations fell back to 4.0% this month. This is the lowest reading since January 2025...

Source: Bloomberg

Uncertainty over short-run inflation expectations, as measured by the interquartile range of responses, has fallen from mid-2025 but has remained considerably elevated in recent months, comparable to levels seen in 2022

Source: Bloomberg

And it appears that Democrats have come to their senses over the fears of runaway Trump tariff inflation...

Source: Bloomberg

Aside from tariff policy, consumers do not appear to be connecting foreign developments to their views of the economy. Hsu notes that interviews for this release concluded on January 19th, two days after Trump’s social media post announcing additional tariffs on eight countries in Europe.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/23/2026 - 10:10

"The Expansion Has Cooled": US Manufacturing, Service PMIs Both Miss, Signal 1.5% GDP Growth

With global PMIs today printing on the softer side (especially in France where the service PMI tumbled to 47.9 on expectations of a 50.3 print), moments ago it was the US' turn to join the parade of soggy prints. Here is what S&P Global reported for the January Prelim PMIs:

• Manufacturing PMI: 51.9, up from 51.8 in Dec, but missing estimates of 52.0
• Services PMI: 52.5, unchanged from December's 52.5, and also missing estimates of 52.9
• Composite PMI Output Index: 52.8, up from December's 52.7), and also missing estimates of 53.0

While US business activity growth ticked higher in January, it remaining subdued compared to the typical rate of expansion seen in the second half of 2025, according to the PMI report. Manufacturing growth accelerated to outpace that of services, but the January survey brought further signs that underlying order book growth has softened in both sectors recently, led by falling exports. Job numbers consequently remained little changed in January.

Curiously, when taking a closer look at the data, we find improvement across both employment and inflation: 

Employment rose in January following a similarly weak increase reported in December. The near-stalled job market reflected concerns from companies over rising costs and softer sales growth in recent months. Only a marginal rise in payroll numbers was reported across the service sector while manufacturing jobs growth weakened to a sixmonth low. Some companies also continued to report difficulties finding staff, often struggling to fill vacancies and meet demand. These capacity issues contributed to the largest rise in backlogs of work since last August, albeit largely confined to the service sector.

Also, so much for inflation: input costs moderated from December’s seven-month high to sit at the weakest since last April. The moderation reflecting a cooling of input cost inflation in the service sector, as manufacturing input prices rose at the fastest pace since last September, once again widely blamed on tariffs. 

Commenting on the report, S&P GMI chief economist, Chris Williamson, said that "The flash PMI brought news of sustained economic growth at the start of the year, but there are further signs that the rate of expansion has cooled over the turn of the new year compared to the hotter pace indicated back in the fall."

 "The survey is signalling annualized GDP growth of 1.5% for both December and January, and a worryingly subdued rate of new business growth across both manufacturing and services adds further to signs that first quarter growth could disappoint."

"Jobs growth is meanwhile already disappointing, with near stagnant payroll numbers reported again in January, as businesses worry about taking on more staff in an environment of uncertainty, weak demand and high costs."

 "Increased costs, widely blamed on tariffs, are again cited as a key driver of higher prices for both goods and services in January, meaning inflation and affordability remains a widespread concern among businesses."

Confidence in the year ahead outlook meanwhile remained positive but dipped slightly lower, as hopes for sustained economic growth and favorable demand conditions were somewhat offset by ongoing worries over the political environment and higher prices.

While elevated rates of input cost and selling price inflation were again commonly attributed to tariffs, especially in the manufacturing sector, where price pressures intensified in January, service sector inflation moderated, linked in part to intensifying competition.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/23/2026 - 10:00

Why Is "Canadian Warren Buffett" Panic-Buying Under Armour Stock

Our shift in coverage on Under Armour began in late September, when we flagged a UBS report from analyst Jay Sole, who forecasted a major inflection point for the long-struggling Baltimore-based apparel company. Sole argued that sentiment would turn positive in FY27, setting the stage for stock outperformance. That bullish thesis has certainly seen its timeline accelerated, with a surge in heavy insider buying igniting a sharp rally this month.

Shares of UAA have surged this month, with year-to-date gains of 27.5%.

If these gains hold through year-end, it would mark the best year for Kevin Plank’s company since 2014.

Let's begin with UBS analyst Sole's inflection point call after a ten-year bear market:

Then what really piqued our interest was Fairfax Financial Holdings’ disclosure earlier this month of a 22.2% ownership stake in UA, making it the company’s largest shareholder.

Insider buying has continued. Bloomberg insider transaction data shows Fairfax Financial continues to panic-buy UA stock, with 5 million more shares disclosed on Wednesday. Last week, the firm bought 3.61 million shares.

Latest data from Bloomberg shows a sudden surge in Fairfax Financial's buying spree, with total shares nearly 42 million, at a market value of $266 million. Fairfax Financial is run by Prem Watsa, often called "Canadian Warren Buffett."

The timing of Fairfax Financial's UA buying spree comes as the company is in a turnaround pattern.

Latest UA developments:

• Data breach probe: Under Armour is investigating claims of a November data breach allegedly impacting about 72 million email addresses

• Leadership changes: Effective February 2, Kara Trent becomes Chief Merchandising Officer and Adam Peake is named President, Americas.

Street Views

• Citi: Raised price target to $6.50 from $5, kept Neutral.

• Truist: Raised target to $6 from $5, kept Hold.

We must also point out that Bloomberg data has UA's float 35% short. A squeeze candidate for sure.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/23/2026 - 09:45

Trump Withdraws Invitation For Canada's Carney To Join Board Of Peace

Authored by Omid Ghoreishi via The Epoch Times,

U.S. President Donald Trump has withdrawn his invitation for Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to join the U.S.-led Board of Peace that will initially focus on rebuilding Gaza.

“Please let this Letter serve to represent that the Board of Peace is withdrawing its invitation to you regarding Canada’s joining, what will be, the most prestigious Board of Leaders ever assembled, at any time,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social addressed to Carney late on Jan. 22.

“Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

The notification comes after the two criticized each other’s comments on U.S.–Canada and international relations in public speeches this week.

Carney criticized U.S. pressure to take over Greenland in a speech at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, on Jan. 20, and called for countries to not comply with “great powers,” saying the rules-based international order has undergone a “rupture.” He urged middle powers to band together to resist pressure from major powers, without specifying who the major powers are or making any distinctions.

“Great powers have begun using economic integration as weapons, tariffs as leverage, financial infrastructure as coercion, supply chains as vulnerabilities to be exploited,” he said.

“You cannot live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration, when integration becomes the source of your subordination.”

His comments came amid increasing U.S. protectionist measures and days after his visit to China, where he said a new strategic partnership with Beijing sets “us up well for the new world order.”

In his own speech at the WEF on Jan. 21, Trump said that he listened to Carney’s speech and that the Canadian prime minister “wasn’t so grateful,” adding that Canada “lives because of the United States.”

“Canada gets a lot of freebies from us, by the way, they should be grateful also, but they’re not,” Trump said.

“Canada lives because of the United States. Remember that, Mark, the next time you make your statements.”

A day later in a speech addressed to Canadians on Jan. 22, Carney rebuked Trump’s remarks, saying Canada “does not live because of the United States. Canada thrives because we are Canadian.”

Also on the same day, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Ottawa could risk jeopardizing the upcoming renegotiations of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) by seeking closer relations with China.

Lutnick suggested that Carney’s recent comments may be related to an upcoming election. He added that Ottawa’s decision to open Canada’s market to Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) may have an adverse impact on Canada’s free-trade relations with the United States, which he said is the “second-best deal” with the United States in the world after Mexico’s.

During his trip to China last week, Carney agreed to cut tariffs on Chinese EVs from 100 percent to 6.1 percent for the first 49,000 imported units, in exchange for Beijing cutting tariffs on Canadian agricultural products from 85 percent to 15 percent until at least the end of 2026.

Board of Peace

Trump’s Board of Peace inaugurated earlier on Jan. 22, with representatives from 19 nations joining the U.S. president at the WEF for the official launch of the initiative. The founding members are mainly Asian, with representatives from some other parts of the world including Hungary, Argentina, and Paraguay joining as well.

Other European leaders including Russian President Vladimir Putin have also been invited to join, but they haven’t yet officially accepted the invitation.

Carney said last week that he had agreed in principle to join the board, adding that details such as financing still need to be worked out. Canada’s Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne said this week that Ottawa had no intention of paying $1 billion to join the initiative, an amount a U.S. official had cited as the entry fee, which would be used to help Gaza.

Carney is the only world leader Trump publicly informed that his invitation to join had been rescinded.

The Epoch Times contacted the prime minister’s office for comment but didn’t immediately hear back.

Souring Relations

Trump’s remarks this week mark the first time he has publicly rebuked Carney, whom he had earlier addressed very cordially.

In his first administration, Trump publicly clashed with former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on multiple occasions. At the conclusion of the June 2018 G7 meeting in Quebec, Trudeau told reporters he would not hesitate to respond to U.S. tariffs with retaliatory measures. Trump later countered by saying that Trudeau “acted so meek and mild” during the meeting and only made those comments once Trump had departed. A year later, during a NATO meeting in the UK, Trudeau was caught on a hot mic seemingly mocking Trump in front of other world leaders for holding a lengthy press conference. Trump later fired back by calling him “two-faced.”

Leading up to his second term, Trump repeatedly referred to Trudeau as “governor,” implying that Canada should be another U.S. state, while Trudeau said there “isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States.”

During his election campaign last year, Carney heavily focused his campaign on responding to Trump, saying that Trump is “attacking Canadian families, workers and businesses” with “unjustified tariffs.”

After the election, however, he significantly toned down his comments on Trump, and dropped Canada’s counter-tariffs in a bid to prompt Washington to continue negotiations with Canada on trade and ease tariffs.

For his part, Trump on multiple occasions praised Carney. “I like Carney a lot, I think he is a good person,” Trump said during a meeting with the Canadian prime minister in Washington in August 2025. Carney has also had words of praise for Trump, calling him a “transformational president” in how how he has dealt with China, during another meeting with the U.S. president in Washington in May 2025.

Even when criticizing the anti-tariff ads featuring a speech by former U.S. President Ronald Reagan run by Ontario in the United States, Trump said that he has a very good relationship with Carney. “I like him a lot,” Trump said in October 2025.

The U.S. president suspended trade talks with Canada over the ad. Carney later said the two countries were close to a trade agreement had it not been for the ads. No new deal has been reached since then, and Ottawa now has its sights set on renegotiating the USMCA this year.

During an earlier televised address to Canadians in October 2025, Carney again used stronger language against the U.S. administration, echoing remarks from the election campaign, saying Canada’s “relationship with the United States will never again be the same as it was.” He largely avoided similar comments in public addresses afterward, before returning to the theme in remarks to world leaders in Davos on Jan. 20 and again to Canadians on Jan. 22.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/23/2026 - 09:25

That Escalated Quickly: Goldman Cuts PC Shipment Outlook As Memory Prices Go Parabolic

Well that escalated quickly.

Goldman analysts led by Allen Chang have revised down global PC shipment forecasts for 2026-28, citing a sharp spike in memory prices as data centers worldwide soak up the supply of high-bandwidth memory.

Before diving into Chang's note, here's a quick recap of what's unfolded so far:

• "Entered New Era": SK Hynix To Build $13 Billion Memory Plant As Nvidia CEO Says AI Demand Soaring

• "Market That Never Existed": Nvidia CEO Sparks Frenzy In Memory Stocks

• Soaring Memory Costs Sink Nintendo Shares; Goldman Says Selloff Is Buy-The-Dip Opportunity

• UBS Says Soaring Memory Chip Prices To "Turbo-Charge" Samsung Earnings

• First Victims Of 'Great Memory Crunch' Emerge As Data Centers Soak Up Global Supply

We've followed the historic price spike for months.

Update: two months later https://t.co/Q4TPIrpzxV pic.twitter.com/O3KTKxZOVE

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 22, 2025

Amazon price-tracking website CamelCamelCamel shows a parabolic price surge in Crucial Pro DDR5 64GB RAM, rising from $145 to $790 in just six months. Anyone building a gaming PC to power a trading station must be furious, as the greatest memory crunch of our time is now underway and could worsen in the months ahead.

Now, soaring memory prices will undoubtedly pressure consumers to put off a new PC and squeeze margins for device makers. This prompted Chang to revise his desk's estimates for global PC shipments:

We revised down global PC shipment estimates for 2026-28E amid increasing memory price, flattening replacement cycle after Windows 10 End of life, and demand pull-ins into 4Q25. We expect global PC shipments to see -5%/ +3% YoY in 2026E / 27E (vs. +3% / +3% previously), to reach 271m / 281m units.

AI PCs will continue to be the growth drivers. We model AI PC shipments to be 159m / 201m in 2026 / 27E (+53% / +27% YoY), representing 58% / 72% penetration (largely unchanged from 58% / 71% previously). Gaming PCs shipment will reach 28m / 32m in 2026 / 27E (-7% YoY / +11% YoY), in our view, impacted by the rising memory price.

Our updated PC TAM model is based on the latest GS forecasts for key suppliers including Apple, Lenovo, HP, Dell, ASUS, Samsung, Microsoft, LG, Xiaomi and Gigabyte. Details within. We also downgrade Gigabyte to Neutral (from Buy) relative to coverage on softer PC related demand and a fair valuation.

Global PC shipments forecast: 

What's next ...

First, AI came for my RAM
Next, it came for my video card pic.twitter.com/ic09CoO8i6

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 21, 2026

A lot more color into Chang's global PCs shipment forecast can be found in the usual place for ZeroHedge Pro Subs.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/23/2026 - 09:05

Futures Drop As Intel Plunges, Silver Just Under $100

US stock futures are lower with tech stocks lagging as Intel plunged 14% after the chipmaker warned it was struggling with manufacturing problems leading to poor Q1 guidance. As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are down 0.1% but off session lows (and well off session highs), paring losses as Nvidia shares gained after Bloomberg reported Chinese officials have told the country’s largest tech firms they can prepare orders for Nvidia’s H200 AI chips. Mag 7 are mixed with NVDA leading gains after Chinese officials were said to have told the country’s largest tech firms, including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., they can prepare orders for Nvidia Corp.’s H200 AI chips. Bond yields are mostly unchanged; USD is flat. Japan’s top currency official declined to comment on whether the government stepped into the market after USD/JPY plunged over 150 pips in just a few minutes. The pair swiftly bounced and is now around 158.30 having topped 159 during the Bank of Japan press conference after Governor Ueda didn’t offer any clear signal that an early rate hike was possible. The pound sits atop the G-10 FX pile, rising 0.2% against the greenback after PMI topped estimates and hawkish remarks from BOE’s. Commodities are mostly higher led by Oil (+1.5%); both base metals and precious metals are higher with silver trading just under $100/oz. The key macro focus today were global PMIs.

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stock are mixed: Nvidia gains 1.5% after Chinese officials were said to have told the country’s largest tech firms, including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., they can prepare orders for Nvidia Corp.’s H200 AI chips (Tesla -0.1%, Microsoft +0.04%, Amazon +0.1%, Alphabet +0.01%, Apple -0.08%, Meta -0.5%)

• Solar stocks are extending gains after Elon Musk commented on solar-powered satellites in his Davos talk on Thursday. Array Technologies (ARRY) +2%, First Solar (FSLR) +1.4%.
• Booz Allen (BAH) rises 5% after the defense contractor boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year, with the new outlook beating the average analyst estimate.
• Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) falls 2% after the bank reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that missed the average analyst estimate, driven by higher-than-expected costs. The firm also said it agreed to acquire Brex.
• CSX Corp. (CSX) gains 2% after the freight transportation company provided some guidance for 2026, including low single-digit revenue growth.
• Intel (INTC) plunges 13% after Chief Executive Officer Lip-Bu Tan gave a lackluster forecast and warned that the chipmaker was struggling with manufacturing problems. The stock closed Thursday at the highest level since 2022.
• Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) gains 1.5% after the medical equipment firm reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that surpassed estimates. Analysts note that the results were largely in line with the company’s pre-announcement.

In corporate news, Amazon.com is gearing up to ax thousands more corporate employees, ratcheting up efforts to streamline bureaucracy. Apple accused the European Commission of using “political delay tactics” to postpone new app policies as a pretense to investigate and fine the iPhone maker. TikTok and its Chinese parent ByteDance have closed a long-awaited deal to transfer parts of their US operations to American investors, securing the popular video app’s future in the US and avoiding a nationwide ban.

Even with the S&P just shy of all time highs, investors have been quietly trying to sidestep bouts of volatility driven by US policies, highlighted this week by Trump’s push to assert greater control over Greenland. While the outlook for US stocks remains strong, traders are also looking elsewhere for pockets of calm and opportunity.

“I hope that the geopolitical situation starts to ease so that the market can focus on substance versus noise,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Global Services. “Full-year 2026 guidances are, in my view, the most crucial piece of data the market has been waiting for quite some time, given valuations and growth expectations.”

Small caps extended a winning streak over large-cap cohorts amid concern about a possible AI bubble and bets that an economic recovery will filter to broader swathes of the economy. The Russell 2000’s outperformance of the S&P 500 in 2026 is the longest such streak in 30 years.  

“Typically, safe bonds and Treasuries have been a source of diversification during times of uncertainty, but particularly Treasuries haven’t provided any cushion over the past days,” said Philipp Lisibach, head of strategy and research at LGT Private Banking. “That’s also why gold continues to rally.”

In Asia, the Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark rate and issued higher inflation forecasts. While Governor Kazuo Ueda suggested that inflation will weaken below 2% soon, he also left open the possibility of an early rate hike. “The challenge is balancing rate hikes to support the yen without slowing growth,” wrote Min Joo Kang, senior economist at ING Bank. “Timing is uncertain, but we now see a June hike as the base case.”

Elsewhere, the US wants to rewrite its defense agreement with Denmark to remove any limits on its military presence in Greenland, people familiar with the matter said. And the Kremlin said the “territorial issue” remains unresolved after Putin held late-night talks with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner about the latest plan to end Russia’s war on Ukraine. Talks continue between US, Russian and Ukrainian representatives in the United Arab Emirates on Friday and Saturday. 

Trump said he has finished interviewing candidates to serve as the next Fed chair and reiterated that he has someone in mind for the job. His shortlist includes National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, BlackRock executive Rick Rieder, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller and a former governor, Kevin Warsh. 

The Stoxx 600 falls 0.1%. Telecoms and energy sectors outperform, while travel and consumer product shares lag. The focus fell on the Amsterdam debut of armored vehicle and munitions maker CSG NV. The stock opened 28% higher after the largest-ever initial public offering globally for a pure-play defense firm, highlighting growing appetite for the sector. Here are the biggest movers Friday:

• Ericsson shares surge as much as 12% after the telecom equipment maker reported stronger-than-expected sales in the core networks division, driven by mission-critical projects
• Siemens Energy gains as much as 2.6% to a record high after UBS raised its recommendation to buy from sell and lifted its PT to €175 from €38
• SFS Group shares gain as much as 7.4%, hitting their highest level since May, after analysts said the Swiss tool and component supplier delivered stronger growth than expected in a challenging market
• SSP shares climb as much as 4.1%, the most in a month, after the travel food and beverage outlet operator reported first-quarter results which showed continued positive trading momentum and reassured analysts
• Watches of Switzerland shares rise as much as 6.4% to the highest level since February 2025 after the luxury watch seller acquired Deutsch & Deutsch, a retailer with four showrooms and Rolex distribution in Texas
• Castellum gains as much as 2.6% after Goldman Sachs upgraded its view on the Swedish property firm to buy from neutral in a review of the European real estate sector, where it also upgrades Colonial to neutral from sell
• Babcock International shares drop as much as 3.8% after the support services company said CEO David Lockwood is retiring and will be succeeded by the head of its Nuclear division, Harry Holt
• Edenred shares fall as much as 3.2%, while Pluxee declines as much as 4.7% as UBS downgrades both French-listed meal-voucher stocks, saying the regulatory “tide is turning” against the sector
• C&C Group shares plunge as much as 18%, briefly slumping to their lowest level since 2009, after the alcoholic beverage maker said trading has been worse than expected

Earlier, Asian stocks gained for a second consecutive session, erasing their losses for the week, as fears over tariffs and Greenland faded.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.4% on Friday, with Alibaba, MediaTek and TSMC among the biggest boosts. Korea’s Kospi advanced to a fresh record near the 5,000 level. Stocks also gained in Taiwan, Japan and Hong Kong. The regional gauge is on track to end the week steady after rising for four straight weeks. Investors are shifting focus back to earnings and the outlook for the artificial intelligence trade after US President Donald Trump backed off from putting tariffs on European nations due to tensions over Greenland. Meanwhile, most central banks in the region are cutting rates and economic growth is expected to improve. Equities rose in Tokyo as the yen weakened after the Bank of Japan held interest rates steady as expected. The Straits Times Index rose to a record as Singapore started handing out some of the S$5 billion it plans to invest in local stocks to selected fund managers.

In FX, Japan’s top currency official declined to comment on whether the government stepped into the market after USD/JPY plunged over 150 pips in just a few minutes. The pair swiftly bounced and is now around 158.30 having topped 159 during the Bank of Japan press conference after Governor Ueda didn’t offer any clear signal that an early rate hike was possible. The pound sits atop the G-10 FX pile, rising 0.2% against the greenback after PMI topped estimates and hawkish remarks from BOE’s Greene that also weighed on shorter-dated gilts.

In rates, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries hovered near the highest since September, holding small gains with long-end yields about 2bp richer on the day, flattening the curve. European bonds underperform following UK retail sales and European PMI gauges. US stock futures little changed while crude oil is up nearly 2%.US yields are 1bp-2bp richer across the curve with 2s10s and 5s30s spreads flatter by about 1bp; 10-year near 4.23% is 1.7bp lower on the day with German counterpart little changed and UK cheaper by about 1bp. Focal points of US session include S&P Global US PMIs and University of Michigan sentiment gauge, as well as next week’s supply — both corporate and Treasury coupon auctions scheduled to start Monday. 

In commodities, spot silver rises 2.5% while gold erased an earlier gain to trade lower. Silver rose just shy of $100 and will likely surpass the key level today...

... as the Shanghai silver premium jumped 50% overnight to a record 12.

Precious metals are expected to remain in demand should investors continue to diversify away from US assets in response to erratic US policy and heightened geopolitical risk.Renewed concern about the possibility of US military action against Iran is spurring oil prices. WTI crude futures rise 1.7% to near $60.40; and Brent is at $65 in New York.  

Today's economic calendar includes January preliminary S&P Global US PMIs (9:45am), November Leading Index, January final University of Michigan sentiment (10am) and Kansas City Fed services activity (11am). Friday is slower for company earnings, with SLB slated to report before the market opens.  Capital One’s fourth-quarter revenues came in slightly higher than expected, but EPS missed, and the bank agreed to buy Brex, a fintech company focused on corporate expense management and accounting, for  $5.15 billion.Next week is the busiest of this earnings season, when companies speaking for more than a third of the S&P 500’s total market value will report.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.1%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.3%
• DAX -0.2%
• CAC 40 -0.5%
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.24%
• VIX +0.5 points at 16.16
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1201.56, euro -0.2% at $1.1735
• WTI crude +1.4% at $60.2/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Russia said it will hold security talks with the U.S. and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi on Friday, but warned after a late-night meeting between President Vladimir Putin and three U.S. envoys that a durable peace would not be possible unless territorial issues were resolved. RTRS
• The US wants to rewrite its defense agreement with Denmark to remove any limits on its military presence in Greenland, people familiar said. It currently says the US must “consult with and inform” the two. Donald Trump also mused on social media about invoking NATO’s collective defense clause to protect the US’s southern border. BBG
• Trump on Thursday said he does not like the idea of letting people use 401(k) retirement funds for a down payment on a house, even though it was floated by his own chief economic adviser, Kevin Hassett. RTRS
• Trump thanks Chinese President Xi for working with the US and ultimately approving the TikTok deal, adds that Xi could have gone the other way.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview Thursday that the U.S. relationship with China has reached a “very good equilibrium” where disagreements are less likely to turn into full-scale economic conflict as they did last year. Politico
• Chinese officials have told the country’s largest tech firms they can prepare orders for Nvidia’s H200 AI chips, people familiar said, suggesting Beijing is close to formally approving imports. Nvidia shares jumped (NVDA +128 bps premkt). BBG
• BOJ keeps key policy rate steady at 0.75% as widely expected. The BOJ retained its hawkish inflation forecasts on Friday and stressed it will remain vigilant to price risks from a weak yen, signaling that policymakers intend to keep raising still-low borrowing costs in a politically charged atmosphere. RTRS
• China could set this year’s GDP target at 4.5-5% (vs. “about 5%” in the last three years), signaling a tolerance for modest growth deceleration as it works toward rebalancing the economy. SCMP
• Eurozone flash PMIs for Jan are mixed, with a shortfall in services (51.9 vs. the Street 52.6) and modestly better manufacturing (49.4 vs. the Street 49.2), and the details were mixed too (new orders rose, although employment deteriorated while inflation intensified vs. Dec). S&P Global
• The US urged grid operators to tap backup power, including from data centers, as a record winter storm threatens blackouts nationwide. Texas is under particular stress, while airlines brace for disruption. BBG
• US House passes package of FY26 funding bills in a major step towards averting government shutdown on Jan 31st; sending to Senate for final votes.
• US House Speaker Johnson said there is no GOP consensus on whether to use tariff revenue to send $2k checks out.

Trade/Tariffs

• EU official said India and EU will announce a free trade agreement as soon as next week.
• EU Official announces that the India-EU FTA will lead to substantially lower tariffs.
• The Trump administration pushed out 2 key officials focused on countering technological threats from China, the WSJ reported citing sources; this has raised concerns among US security hawks about the softer stance towards China.
• Spanish PM Sanchez said the US is provoking tension in the Transatlantic, EU have the instruments to respond proportionally to coercion.
• The EU is moving to revive its US trade deal after President Trump backed away from his tariff threat tied to Greenland.
• US President Trump said the people who brought the tariff legislation against the US are strongly China-oriented; the US is going so well, giant growth and investment with almost no inflation.

BOJ

• BoJ maintains its short-term interest rate at 0.75%, as expected; 8-1 vote split with Takata voting for a 25bps hike.
• BoJ Governor Ueda (post-policy presser) said headline inflation soon to undershoot 2%; not yet at the stage to mull if goal achievement is coming earlier. Will conduct monetary policy in such a way as to ensure they do not fall behind the curve. Will keep raising rates if the economic outlook is realized. It will take a while before the full impact of tightening is seen across the economy, conditions remain accommodative after the December move. Will conduct nimble market operations to respond to irregular moves; will work closely with the government on long-term rates. Operations could be conducted to encourage stable yield formation. Must pay attention to even small FX moves as underlying inflation approaches 2%.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded entirely in the green, though without a clear sector-led driver, as regional sentiment stayed broadly constructive. ASX 200 posted modest gains, supported by strength in mining and metals as gold, silver and platinum extended their bid. A strong PMI print — with both manufacturing and services pushing further into expansion — added to the positive tone. Nikkei 225 gapped higher at the open but later pared part of its advance, pressured by chip stocks after weak Intel earnings. Offsetting some of the drag, videogame names outperformed, with Nintendo (+5%) boosted by strong US Switch 2 sales data. Following the BoJ rate decision, the Nikkei was unreactive as rates remained unchanged. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp opened higher, with the Hang Seng outperforming after Alibaba (+3.6%) was reported to be preparing the listing of its chipmaking arm. Metals strength following fresh records in gold and silver also supported both indices.

Top Asian News

• Chinese President Xi had a phone call with Brazilian President Lula, Xinhua reported. China is willing to cooperate with Brazil in different areas.

European bourses are trading largely on the backfoot, in contrast to the broadly positive action seen overnight. European sectors are trading mostly in the red. Leading sectors are Telecommunications (+1.1%), Energy (+1.2%) and Healthcare (+0.4%). Telecommunication has been given a boost by Ericsson (+8.3%) after the Co. reported strong Q4 earnings, whilst stronger crude prices has underpinned the Energy sector. On the flip side, Construction (-0.9%), Travel (-1.0%) and Financial Services (-0.5%) lag - no fresh newsflow driving the move.

Top European News

• Germany's core budget had borrowing of EUR 66.9bln instead of the allocated EUR 81.8bln, according to sources. Sources also reported that total investment hits record level of EUR 86.8bln in 2025.
• French parliament finds confidence in PM Lecornu (i.e. the no-confidence motion failed); another motion to follow shortly.

FX

• DXY is incrementally firmer this morning and trades within a 98.25-98.48 range, which is towards the lower end of the prior day’s confines. Newsflow for the index is lacking this morning, with all attention on the upcoming trilateral meeting between US-Russia-Ukraine; Trump reminded that “anytime we meet, it is good".
• JPY currently the top G10 performer this morning. Earlier, the BoJ kept rates steady (subject to dissent) and upwardly revised their 2026 inflation forecasts – spurring upside in the JPY at the time, but gradually waned into the Ueda meeting. The Governor avoided any overt hike signal, but noted that they are wary of a “rapid” rise in yields, also adding that they "must pay attention to even small FX moves" (strengthening JPY).
• Thereafter, a significant bout of pressure was seen in USD/JPY, soon after Ueda concluded its presser. In more detail, USD/JPY fell from 159.10 to 157.32 in an immediate reaction, before gradually scaling back to around 158.00 mark where the pair currently resides. Some had touted intervention, though Bloomberg's Cudmore suggested the move is a rate check (i.e. the MOF calling round to see where banks think the JPY should be). In response, Finance Minister Katayama declined to comment if they intervened in the FX market, instead reiterating that they are watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency.
• G10s are mixed against the Dollar. GBP is towards the top of the pile, with upside facilitated by a hotter-than-expected Retail Sales report (which also included upward revisions to the prior); PMI figures this morning also paint a positive activity picture in the region. Thereafter, Cable took another leg higher to a session peak of 1.3532 after BoE’s Greene said, “forward indicators for wage growth are even more concerning than inflation expectations”, with other commentary generally striking a typical hawkish tone.
• Elsewhere, EUR is mildly lower; earlier slipped to session lows on the subdued French PMI metrics (Services surprisingly contracted), but then jumped on the upbeat German figures.

Fixed Income

• JGBs are lower by c. 40 ticks at the moment, with downside of just under 50 at most at a 131.32 session low. Action that comes after the BoJ and Ueda's presser where, in short, the narrative is that April is the earliest point for a hike, as Ueda specifically referenced seeing price behaviour for that period as a "factor to mull a hike". Though, JGBs remain markedly clear of their WTD 130.66 trough and by extension yields are off WTD highs. Nonetheless, the week's action, driven by fiscal commentary and the BoJ, has sparked a modest shift in market pricing; with 21bps of tightening currently implied by June vs c. 18bps last week; for April, its 14bps currently vs 11bps last week.
• USTs a tick or two higher in a very thin 111-19 to 112-23 band, awaiting the trilateral summit re. Ukraine (timing TBC), flash PMIs and the potentially imminent Fed Chair announcement.
• Bunds, in contrast, are a tick or two lower. But, also in a narrow 127.64-84 band. Modest two-way action on but no real move to the January Flash PMIs, as political uncertainty re. France and the latest geopolitical/tariff gyrations potentially making some of the responses redundant.
• OATs are broadly in-line with core benchmarks. Towards the mid-point of 121.10 to 121.27 parameters. Earlier, the French parliament found confidence in PM Lecornu (as expected), though he is still subject to another no-confidence motion. Into this, the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread has widened a touch, out to 63bps, but within comfortable and familiar territory.
• Gilts outperform. Gains of 32 ticks at best to a 91.68 high, currently holding around 10 ticks off that. Upside despite the strong December Retail Sales release and upward revisions to the November Y/Y components. Data that appears to have been overshadowed by a reassessment of the political risk after Thursday's Burnham-induced sell-off; as more commentators pick up on the detail that Burnham's path to becoming an MP is tricky, and largely dependent on the pro-Starmer Labour NEC.
• However, the move for Gilts unwound after strong UK PMIs and hawkish commentary from BoE's Greene, points that were enough to take the benchmark to near enough flat on the day.

Commodities

• In short, the commodity space awaits the trilateral summit between Ukraine, Russia and the US today and potentially into tomorrow. Timing and details around the meeting are currently light, though we do know the attendees. From Ukraine, Umerrov, Budanov, Arakhamia and Hnatov. From Russia, Kostyukov; note, Dmitriev is also in the UAE, unclear if he will partake. From the US, Witkoff and Kushner.
• Crude is firmer by just under a USD a barrel. Towards highs of USD 60.22/bbl and USD 64.93/bbl for WTI and Brent, respectively. Upside that is more a consolidation from the downside seen on Thursday than a fundamentally-driven move higher.
• XAU pulled back in the early European morning. A move that, interestingly, occurred alongside downside in US equity futures at the time. As such, the move is perhaps profit-taking from recent gains; we also note similar action in silver at the time, though XAG remains firmer on the day. Spot gold briefly broke below USD 4.9k/oz, after hitting USD 4967/oz overnight.
• Base metals feature gains in 3M LME Copper. Upside that seemingly occurred alongside strength in China overnight. At best 3M LME to USD 12.97k/T. Note, Shanghai Futures Exchange is to adjust price limits and margin ratios for nickel, aluminium, lead, zinc, and stainless-steel futures as of the 27th January settlement.
• China’s Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust price limits and margin ratios for nickel, aluminium, lead, zinc, and stainless-steel futures following the 27th of January closing settlement.
• China is reportedly set to offer CNY-denominated liquefied natural gas futures contracts as early as February, according to sources.
• Goldman Sachs lowers its Summer'26 Henry Hub forecast to USD 3.75/MMBtu (prev. USD 4.50/MMBtu), maintains 2027 forecast at USD 3.80/MMBtu.
• US President Trump said Venezuelan oil will be divided up.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russia's Kremlin said discussions in Abu Dhabi will happen today and will continue tomorrow if necessary. Russia's sovereign assets frozen in the US amount to a little less than USD 5bln. Not looking to go into details on the "Anchorage Formula" for peace agreement with Ukraine.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said he discussed with US President Trump additional air defence missiles, and provisions for PAC-3 & anti-ballistic missiles.
• Ukraine President Zelensky said he is waiting for US President Trump, a date, and a place for the signing of security guarantees.
• Russia's Kremlin said Greenland proposal and Board of Peace were discussed with US envoys; talks were constructive. Without solving the territorial issue, there is no prospect of long-term settlement in Ukraine.
• Russian envoy Dmitriev called the meeting between President Putin and US envoys important.
• Russia's Kremlin said the talks between President Putin and US envoys have concluded.
• US President Trump said Russian President Putin, alongside others, will have to make concessions to end the war in Ukraine. Putin and Zelensky want to make a deal. Ukraine war doesn't affect the US, it affects Europe.
• EU Commission President von der Leyen said Europe will continue to work on Arctic security, step up investments in Greenland and Arctic-ready equipment and deepen cooperation with partners in the region. Well-prepared with measures if tariffs are applied. Europe should use defence spending 'surge' on Arctic-ready equipment. Close to prosperity deal with the US and Ukraine.
• US President Trump said the US will work with NATO on Greenland security; there are good things for Europe within the framework. On the trilateral meeting with Ukraine and Russia, said "anytime we meet, it is good". There will be something on Greenland in 2 weeks.
• Russian defence ministry reported strategic bomber patrols conducted over Baltic Sea.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israeli officials reportedly express concern that they could be targeted in retaliation by Iran in response to a US strike, FT reported citing sources.
• US President Trump, on Iran, said they have a big force going towards Iran; watching Iran very closely and would rather not see something happen on Iran; will be doing a 25% secondary tariff on Iran.

Geopolitics: Others

• US President Trump posted that the Board of Peace withdraws its offer for Canada to join.
• US President Trump posted "Maybe we should have put NATO to the test: Invoked Article 5, and forced NATO to come here and protect our Southern Border from further Invasions of Illegal Immigrants".
• US House narrowly rejects resolution to limit President Trump's war powers in Venezuela.
• US President Trump said Chinese President Xi will come to the US towards the end of the year.
• NATO's Rutte and Denmark's PM is to meet on Friday morning.
• Russian defence ministry reported strategic bomber patrols conducted over Baltic Sea.

US Event Calendar

• 9:45 am: United States Jan P S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI, est. 52, prior 51.8
• 9:45 am: United States Jan P S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 52.9, prior 52.5
• 9:45 am: United States Jan P S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 53, prior 52.7
• 10:00 am: United States Nov Leading Index, est. -0.2%
• 10:00 am: United States Jan F U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 54, prior 54

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The market recovery continued yesterday, as easing geopolitical risks and a strong batch of US data led to growing optimism on the near-term outlook. That meant the S&P 500 (+0.55%) rose for a second day running, moving back within 1% of its record high. And for some assets, it was almost like the selloff never happened, with the VIX index of volatility (-1.26pts) back at 15.64pts, which is beneath its levels prior to Saturday’s tariff announcements, whilst US HY spreads (-4bps) closed at their tightest level since 2007, at 250bps. So it was a strong day for the most part, and the risk-on tone also sent 2yr Treasury yields (+2.4bps) to a 6-week high of 3.61%. Nevertheless, there’s still a lot of focus on the precise details of what the framework over Greenland will include, and there was lingering caution that the geopolitical risk hasn’t entirely gone away. So gold prices (+2.16%) kept up their recent momentum, rising to $4,936/oz by yesterday’s close, and they’ve posted a further gain up to $4,966/oz this morning.

In terms of the Greenland situation, there weren’t any explicit updates yesterday, but multiple press outlets reported that the talks between President Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte had focused on reopening the 1951 agreement between the US and Denmark over Greenland’s defence. Bloomberg reported that it would involve the stationing of US missiles, with the US seeking to remove any limits on its military presence in Greenland, whilst Trump himself said in an interview on Fox Business that “essentially, it’s total access.” Trump was also asked if the US would acquire Greenland, and he said “It’s possible. But in the meantime, we’re getting everything we wanted, total security.” Meanwhile, after the de-escalation the previous day, there were limited news from a summit of EU leaders, with Commission President von der Leyen saying the bloc would engage with the US in a “firm but non-escalatory” manner.

With fears ebbing about a military or economic escalation, this was very positive for global risk assets yesterday. Moreover, European markets did particularly well, because they finally reacted to Wednesday evening’s news that Trump wouldn’t impose 10% tariffs for several countries on Feb 1. Indeed, that reaction saw the STOXX 600 (+1.03%) post its best day in over two months, and there was a clear response among assets more sensitive to a military or trade escalation. So defence stocks struggled as a military escalation was viewed as less likely, and Rheinmetall (-3.40%) was the worst performer in the German DAX. Conversely, there was an outperformance from sectors like automakers that would have been more affected by tariffs, and Volkswagen (+6.51%) was the top performer in the DAX.

Whilst the geopolitical news was the main driver of the rally yesterday, sentiment also got a boost from a strong batch of US data, which cemented confidence in the near-term outlook. Most notably, the weekly initial jobless claims were at just 200k in the week ending January 17 (vs. 209k expected), which in turn pushed the 4-week moving average to a 2-year low of just 201.5k. In addition, the Q3 GDP print was also revised up a tenth, now showing growth at an annualised +4.4% before the government shutdown began. And the PCE inflation data for October and November was in line with expectations, with both headline and core PCE running at +0.2% for both months.

That data boosted confidence in the near-term outlook, and it meant that investors continued to dial back their expectations for rate cuts this year. Indeed, just 43bps of Fed cuts are now priced by the December meeting, the fewest so far this year and down -2.6bps on the day. So in turn, that helped to push up Treasury yields higher, especially at the frontend, with the 2yr Treasury yield (+2.4bps) up to 3.61%, whilst the 10yr yield (+0.6bps) reached 4.25%. That risk-on tone was echoed among US equities too, with the S&P 500 (+0.55%) powered by a strong advance for the Magnificent 7 (+2.11%), which posted its biggest gain of 2026 so far.

Overnight, the Japanese yield curve has flattened after the Bank of Japan delivered a somewhat hawkish-leaning decision. They left their policy rate at 0.75% as expected, after hiking at the previous meeting. However, it was an 8-1 vote, with a dissent in favour of another 25bp hike, whilst the outlook report raised their inflation outlook as well. So the median expectation for core-core CPI has risen by two-tenths to +3.0% in fiscal 2025, whilst the fiscal 2026 forecast is also up two-tenths to +2.2%, with fiscal 2027 up a tenth to +2.1%. And looking forward, the outlook report reiterated their desire to keep hiking rates, saying that “real interest rates are at significantly low levels”, and that if the forecast were realised then they would “continue to raise the policy interest rate”. In turn, that’s seen the 2yr Japanese yield (+3.1bps) reach a post-1996 high of 1.23%, but the 30yr yield (-1.9bps) is down to 3.62%. We also had the December CPI report shortly beforehand, which showed headline CPI decelerating to +2.1% (vs. +2.2% expected) due the impact of government subsidies.

Otherwise in Asia, equity markets have generally moved higher for the most part, which comes as the flash PMIs have painted a resilient picture of global economic activity as we begin 2026. So Japan’s composite PMI moved up to a 17-month high of 52.8, Australia’s hit a 5-month high of 55.5, whilst India’s moved up to 59.5. So that backdrop has seen further gains for the Nikkei (+0.16%), the Shanghai Comp (+0.28%) and the Hang Seng (+0.47%), whilst South Korea’s KOSPI (+0.47%) is on track for another record high. Meanwhile, US equity futures are also positive, with those on the S&P 500 (+0.19%) pointing towards further gains. However, the CSI 300 (-0.45%) has lost ground, and we also found out overnight that the People’s Bank of China set the daily reference rate for the yuan at 6.9929 per dollar, which is the first time since 2023 that the reference rate has been below 7.

Elsewhere, we’ve seen fresh records for commodities, with gold (+2.16%) closing at another record of $4,936/oz yesterday, and overnight it’s reached an intraday peak of $4,967/oz. So it’s in touching distance of the $5,000 level, and bear in mind it was only in October that it crossed the $4,000 level. Similarly, silver (+3.42%) closed at a new record of $96.24/oz yesterday, and overnight it’s also hit an intraday record of $99.36/oz. Otherwise, Brent crude fell -1.81% to $64.06/bbl, following positive comments on peace talks from Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy after meeting Trump in Davos, as well as the news that exports of Kazakh oil via a Black Sea oil terminal in Russia should soon recover from recent disruption caused by Ukrainian drone strikes. Further talks between US, Ukraine and Russia officials are expected in Abu Dhabi today and tomorrow.

Earlier in Europe, UK gilts underperformed their European counterparts yesterday, with the 10yr yield up +1.7bps on the day to 4.47%. That came in response to the news that Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham could have a path back into Parliament, as a vacancy opened up to become MP in the Greater Manchester seat of Gorton and Denton. Gilts reacted to that because Burnham is seen as a plausible challenger against PM Keir Starmer, whose position has come under increasing pressure over the last year, and Burnham has previously said that the UK is “in hock to the bond markets” and called for higher public borrowing. It’s unclear yet if Burnham would be a candidate in that by-election, but gilt markets have been closely following political developments, as we saw last July when there was a big selloff driven by speculation about Chancellor Reeves’ position and whether the fiscal rules might be loosened under a new chancellor.

Finally yesterday, we also had the minutes from the ECB’s last meeting in December, where they kept their deposit rate at 2%. They showed that the ECB wanted to keep their options open, saying that “it was important for the Governing Council to maintain full optionality in either direction for future meetings”. Looking forward, it also said that “the softening of downside risks since September meant that maintaining interest rates at their current level represented a fairly solid path under the baseline outlook”. Against that backdrop, yields on 10yr bunds (+0.5bps) rose by a small amount, and those on 10yr OATs (-2.8bps) and BTPs (-1.6bps) fell back.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the January flash PMIs from the US and Europe, the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for January, and UK retail sales for December. Otherwise from central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde and the BoE’s Greene.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/23/2026 - 08:38

NatGas "Tightening Shock" Sparks Historic Weekly Rally As Major Winter Storm Imminent

US natural gas futures surged as much as 75% over the past week, well above $5/mmBtu, driven by sharply colder weather forecasts (comparable to the 2021 Uri storm that paralyzed Texas' power grid), ongoing production freeze-offs, and a vicious market trap for bears that unleashed epic short covering.

As of Friday morning, around 0645 ET, front-month NatGas contracts in New York fell 1.4% to $4.97/mmBtu, after surging 63% over the last three trading sessions.

Prices were still on track for the biggest weekly gain on record, with Bloomberg data going back to 1990.

This week's surge was largely fueled by below-average temperature forecasts across the Lower 48, combined with the threat of a potentially historic winter storm stretching from Texas to the Northeast.

Widespread winter activity across more than half the country has raised freeze-off risks, particularly in southern gas-producing states and Appalachia, while also stoking concerns about pipeline icing that could reduce volumes and pressure power grids this weekend and into next week.

Winter is Coming for Appalachia
This week's Appalachian nat gas production is already down 1.1 Bcf/d versus last week, and the extreme cold is just getting started.

Pittsburgh overnight lows are headed to -6.8°F at their most intense levels next week, with this cold coming in… pic.twitter.com/l2oyl80cfe

— Criterion Research (@PipelineFlows) January 22, 2026

Our reporting this week:

• Appalachian NatGas Output Faces "Intense Losses" As Arctic Blast Drives Power Grid Risk Higher

• NatGas Jumps 75% As Extreme Cold, Blizzard Risks Threaten Appalachian Gas Supply

Samantha Dart, lead analyst on the Goldman Sachs commodities team, provided clients with critical color on the US NatGas market Thursday evening following a historic week of upside price action.

Dart was clear that the move in NatGas was purely weather-driven: prices surged amid sharply colder forecasts, production freeze-offs, and short covering. She said her desk views the spike as a near-term shock, with futures prices likely overshooting fundamentals rather than signaling a sustained rally.

She said that front of the curve rallied more than Summer 2026 (Sum26) contracts, highlighting two key risks:

• Production outages might hit exactly when heating demand peaks and the system might fall temporarily short on gas

• Storage path risks: Higher heating demand ultimately lowers overall storage levels, increasing the market's vulnerability to tightening shocks during the 2026-27 winter.

Dart continued:

• We estimate that near-term deliverability risks are meaningful, even taking into account mitigating factors like gas-to-coal switching and the re-sale of gas by liquefaction facilities back to the grid. That said, we think this would ultimately be a temporary physical imbalance, likely to be reflected in very high cash prices during the tightening shock, rather than in a sustained rally in NYMEX gas. We think this is especially the case given the potential for strong Northeast production to help rebuild Gulf storage levels in the spring, as observed last year. As a result, while weather forecast shifts can keep price volatility elevated, prompt NYMEX prices seem to have overshot fundamentals.

She added that the upcoming storm (peak cold on Jan 26) is expected to create a temporary tightening, reflected in higher cash prices than NYMEX futures, similar to the 2021 Uri event, when cash spiked to $25/mmBtu while prompt NYMEX stayed flat.

Dart's view is that prices post-storm and post-winter blast will return to the medium-term target, but stay above $3.50, and not exceed $4.

The full note can be found in the usual place for ZeroHedge Pro Subs.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/23/2026 - 07:20

Japan Left Waiting As $7.2BN US Arms Deliveries Stall, Ukraine Prioritized

After nearly four years of the Russia-Ukraine war, and the US having throughout poured billions into Kiev's military and civic services sector, there are signs that other American allies are experiencing extreme delays in pre-scheduled arms shipments because Washington's priorities are clearly elsewhere.

Israel over the past couple years has also been a high priority, amid its war in Gaza, which resulted in the US fast-tracking some bombs, ammo, and weapons deliveries. But countries like Japan are suffering from extreme delays, at a sensitive moment it is locked in an ongoing diplomatic standoff with China over the Japanese Prime Minister's Taiwan stance.

E-2D Hawkeye airborne warning and control aircraft, via US Navy.

Nikkei has referenced a Japanese government internal investigation which found that "118 orders for U.S. military equipment worth 1.14 trillion yen ($7.21 billion) have not been delivered at least five years after the contracts were signed, in some cases forcing the Self-Defense Forces to use older equipment."

These startling figures were uncovered by Japan's Board of Audit, and revealed upon completing its formal investigation last Friday.

"The 118 cases pointed out by the Board of Audit include equipment that Japan added to its orders later, and not all of them are delayed deliveries," the Japan's Defense Ministry said, adding that "we will address each of the issues in Foreign Military Sales procurement one by one."

However, the Japanese government has not speculated as to specific causes or made any accusations of its key arms partner in the West. The Nikkei report, for example cites instances of problems at manufacturing companies, resulting in serious delays of advanced weaponry.

But the report does bring up the question of Washington's shifting priorities, which can come into play even long after deals with Tokyo are inked:

Even with FMS contracts, deliveries can be delayed if the U.S. side lacks the items in stock. Shipments to Japan can be postponed when Washington determines that delivering equipment would disrupt American military operations.

Japanese opposition parties had expressed concern that deliveries of air defense missiles and other equipment could be delayed due to the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The government said it was difficult to comment on such a possibility.

Examples of major military hardware delayed for the island-nation include E-2D early warning and control aircraft. Much of what Japan seeks is indeed defensive in nature, also as it knows it would have to rely heavily on its American ally if some kind of hot conflict were to ever kick off with China.

China has earlier warned Japan will suffer a "crushing" defeat if it ever decided to directly intervene in the Taiwan dispute. Recent years have also seen Beijing's anger grow after NATO briefly talked about opening an official office in Tokyo, but these plans were soon abandoned.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/23/2026 - 06:55

Up To 25% Of US Colleges May Close Soon, Brandeis President Warns

Authored by Hanna Bechtel via The College Fix,

Higher education is approaching a period of profound disruption, and many colleges may not survive, Arthur Levine, the newly appointed president of Brandeis University, said during a recent event.

Levine estimated that between 20 and 25 percent of colleges will close in the coming years, while community colleges and regional universities move increasingly online.

He made these remarks during a recent American Enterprise Institute event titled “Tackling Higher Education’s Challenges: A Conversation with Frederick M. Hess and Brandeis University President Arthur Levine.” 

Wealthier institutions may have the resources to withstand the transition, but many others do not. Levine said that elite schools, such as Harvard, can afford to wait out disruptions, while smaller institutions face immediate pressure to adapt. 

“Higher education is undergoing a transformation. Our whole society is undergoing a transformation,” Levine said, pointing to the shift from a national, industrial economy to a global, digital, knowledge-based one. 

That shift, he said, is driving demographic, economic, technological, and political change that universities have been slow to address.  

The challenges facing higher education, Levine said, are not new. He pointed to three longstanding criticisms that date back to the early 19th century, including that colleges change slowly, resist change, and cost too much.

“Outcomes better be worth the price paid,” he said, adding that when society changes, higher education often lags behind and scrambles to catch up. 

Levine also criticized the traditional model of higher education as a product of the Industrial Revolution, resembling an assembly line that advances students based on time rather than mastery.

“It doesn’t matter what was taught to you … We should care about what you learn,” he said.

Levine said he is attempting to respond to these issues through his “Brandeis Plan to Reinvent the Liberal Arts.” 

The initiative seeks to overhaul the university’s general education curriculum, expand access to internships and apprenticeships, and provide students with micro-credentials tied to skills valued by employers. 

“The liberal arts have always been practical,” he said, noting that early American higher education was designed to prepare students for professional and civic leadership.

Under the new plan, Brandeis aims to redesign general education to better align with the demands of a global digital economy. 

The university’s website describes the initiative as one integrating “the values of a rigorous liberal arts education with career readiness, ethical grounding and lifelong learning.” 

It features a redesigned course curriculum, as well as the development of a career-competency transcript “capturing the skills, experiences and competencies that students gain inside and beyond the classroom.”

A key component of the proposal is a shift toward competency-based education that measures students’ skills and knowledge instead of relying solely on grades.

Levine acknowledged the difficulty of the transition, saying that universities will not immediately agree on what constitutes competency, or even how it should be evaluated.

“We’re going to make mistakes. We’re going to get some things wrong,” he said.

The university president also addressed concerns about grade inflation and maintaining academic rigor, saying that grades have lost much of their meaning. 

“Grades don’t mean much anymore, if everyone gets an A.” He emphasized the need for clearer standards and better assessment tools. 

Levine also addressed the rise of antisemitism on college campuses, saying the university has been working with local school districts to understand better how this discrimination affects students. He has seen an increase in applications from students who no longer feel safe at other institutions. 

Further, he said “diversity, equity, and inclusion” efforts are necessary, but criticized how they have been implemented and understood by higher education institutions.

Levine argued the term has become increasingly broad and unclear, limiting its effectiveness and failing to protect Jewish students and faculty. He said universities often address issues piecemeal, rather than through a comprehensive strategy, calling for clearer goals focused on access, support, and equal opportunity. 

When asked about research effectiveness and institutional transparency, Levine cautioned against using research funding as a “political” tool.

He said that cutting federal support ultimately harms the country rather than just penalizing individual universities. 

“Cutting research funding is not a fit penalty. It’s a penalty to the country,” he said.

He said that universities are increasingly targeted over political grievances rather than the quality of their research, calling such actions the “wrong remedy.” 

Finally, Levine stressed the importance of protecting academic freedom, which he defined as the right to pursue and speak the truth, while noting it does not give faculty the license to say anything without accountability.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/23/2026 - 06:30

Davos Elites Scammed By Fake VIP Passes To Exclusive USA House Venue

The Trump administration's primary venue at the World Economic Forum in Davos, known as USA House, issued a pointed warning on its website Tuesday after reports surfaced that some high-profile attendees had been duped by scalpers peddling counterfeit VIP access packages, Fox Business reports.

Pedestrians walk past the USA House during the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in the Alpine resort of Davos on Monday.  (Getty Images)

"Caveat billionaires," the notice began dryly, "It has been brought to our attention that again this year external parties are selling ‘VIP access to USA House’ and other Stromback Global venues in Davos.”

Organizers said that USA House and Stromback Global maintain no partnerships with third-party resellers and will deny entry to anyone holding such bogus credentials.

The statement added a touch of literary flair:

"The volume of inbound queries this year suggests that these fake VIP passes may be the fastest-selling fiction about Davos since Thomas Mann’s Magic Mountain.”

The statement closed with sympathies for the victims of the apparent swindle.

USA House, a public-private initiative debuting this year to highlight American innovation on the global stage, centers its programming on the nation's 250th anniversary and themes of opportunity, collaboration, and democratic values.

Access to elite World Economic Forum badges can run into the tens of thousands of dollars - up to $35,000 for top-tier entry, according to prior reporting - plus substantial annual membership fees that reach into the seven figures for the most influential participants, according to Fox Business.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/23/2026 - 05:45

Watch: Davos Elites Push Lab-Grown 'Meat' Despite Massive Backlash

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

The clips in this piece were all sourced and edited by Wide Awake Media. Please give them a follow on X.

As the Trump administration’s Make America Healthy Again initiative ramps up its assault on processed poisons and added sugars, Davos elites are scrambling to defend their synthetic food agenda. From lab-grown “meat” to artificial additives, the WEF crowd insists their tech-driven “solutions” will save the planet, even as public resistance mounts and states impose bans on cultivated cell products.

This clash highlights the divide between policies prioritizing nutrient-dense, farm-fresh eats and the globalist push for factory-farmed fakes and lab grown substances riddled with unknown risks.

WEF Insider Touts Lab-Grown Meat as ‘Way Forward’ Amid Ecological Claims

In a discussion on food innovation, Davos participant Andrea Illy championed tech foods like cultivated meat, dismissing cultural resistance as outdated, despite acknowledging massive consumer backlash.

Davos participant Andrea Illy claims that fake, lab-grown foods "represent the way forward", despite massive public resistance.

"70% of the ecological footprint of agriculture is due to animal proteins."

"Why should I use animals when I can cultivate meat [in a lab]?" pic.twitter.com/tZYK4uy6ST

— Wide Awake Media (@wideawake_media) January 22, 2026

The clip captures Illy saying: “So I think that I acknowledge, let me say, there is a terrible cultural resistance from consumer to accept tech foods. But in my opinion they represent the way forward.”

He continued, “If you look at it from the ecological perspective, maybe we have to be selective. And Because we know from statistics, correct me if I’m wrong, that 70% of the ecological footprint of agriculture is due to animal proteins, and then on the other side, they kind of physiological, we know that an excessive consumption of animal proteins is the first cause of non-communicable diseases. Which are like the number one health problem in the western society.”

“So what about reducing the animal protein to the level which is healthy and increasing, also optimizing the environmental impact?” Illy suggested, adding “Why should I use animals when I can cultivate meat and get only the best part of this? This I know is a kind of cultural revolution, it will take decades.”

This push ignores growing evidence of lab-grown meat’s inefficiencies, high costs, and potential health unknowns. 

Recent developments show the sector struggling, with shutdowns like Believer Meats in late 2025 amid declining investments. 

Dutch startup Meatable also ceased operations in December 2025 after failing to secure funding. 

Meanwhile, states are cracking down: Seven Republican-led states, including Texas, have banned the manufacture, sale or distribution of lab-grown meat. 

Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller blasted a federal ruling allowing a lawsuit against the state’s ban to proceed, calling lab-grown products a “Trojan horse” threatening rural livelihoods and food safety.

Davos Speaker Warns MAHA Scrutiny on Additives Will ‘Injure’ Consumers and the Planet

During another panel, WEF participant Jasmin Hume voiced concerns over heightened scrutiny of synthetic additives and dyes, partly driven by MAHA, predicting harm to consumers, industry, and the environment.

In the footage, Hume explained: “Right now, the food industry is under an unprecedented amount of stress. There are increasing and ever-evolving consumer expectations in terms of the foods that they’re purchasing and prioritizing.”

She continued, “In the United States there’s been a lot of talk recently from Make America Healthy Again And how we need to take a really close look at some compounds like synthetic additives and dyes that have been in the food system for many decades in other countries and are now coming under scrutiny.”

Davos: WEF participant Jasmin Hume argues that increased public scrutiny of the "synthetic additives and dyes that have been in the food system for many decades"—driven in part by Make America Healthy Again—will ultimately harm the consumer, the food industry and the planet.… pic.twitter.com/PDtWOOLdKL

— Wide Awake Media (@wideawake_media) January 22, 2026

“It’s really, really difficult to be able to do the level of reformulation, and not mention regulation, that has to happen at the same pace,” Hume further claimed.

Hume argued that removing these long-used compounds would require massive reformulation and regulatory changes, creating backlogs under FDA’s GRAS process. She claimed consumers would suffer from foods lacking expected nutrition and value, while industry and the planet face injury.

This defense of synthetic ingredients clashes directly with MAHA’s mission, as outlined in our previous coverage of the Trump admin’s dietary guidelines overhaul. 

HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has declared war on added sugars and ultra-processed junk, prioritizing real, nutrient-dense foods to combat chronic diseases. 

The reset ends subsidies for low-quality items in federal programs, saving billions in healthcare while bolstering American farmers.

Moderna CEO Blames ‘Misinformation’ for Vaccine Hesitancy, Pins Hopes on mRNA Cancer Shots

Meanwhile, at another Davos panel on cancer care, Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel lamented societal pushback against mRNA vaccines, attributing it to under-communication during the pandemic and rampant social media misinformation.

Davos: Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel blames social media "misinformation" for declining vaccination rates, insisting no corners were cut on Covid mRNA "vaccine" safety.

He predicts that mRNA cancer vaccines will "change the pendulum" of public opinion over time.

"We've seen what… pic.twitter.com/cMXxnJej9b

— Wide Awake Media (@wideawake_media) January 22, 2026

In the clip, Bancel expressed regret over not addressing psychological barriers more effectively, while insisting no safety corners were cut. Bancel also highlighted declining vaccination rates amid a severe flu season and expressed hope that mRNA applications in cancer and other diseases would shift public perception over time.

This comes amid ongoing debates over mRNA tech’s long-term effects, with critics pointing to excess deaths and health issues post-rollout. Yet Bancel frames resistance as tragic, overlooking widespread distrust fueled by real-world outcomes.

The Davos rhetoric exposes globalists’ desperation as MAHA dismantles Big Food’s and Big Pharma’s grip. With lab-grown meat bans spreading—now in seven states including Texas—and public demand for transparency soaring, the era of unchecked synthetic slop is crumbling. 

America’s return to real food signals a victory against technocratic overreach, putting health and sovereignty first.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/23/2026 - 05:00

Finnish President Claims Europe Can 'Unequivocally' Defend Itself Without US

Donald Trump's opposition to the US continuing to bankroll NATO has become a defining issue in global politics, so much so that a considerable percentage of time and energy at the ongoing Davos conference has been spent talking about it.

During a panel discussion on Europe’s defense capabilities with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and Polish President Karol Nawrocki, Finnish President Alexander Stubb argued that Europe 'unequivocally' has the ability to defend itself without US support. 

The claim coincides with the Finnish leader's assertion that a " new world order" is rising with the UN at the helm.  The suggestion has, of course, drawn scrutiny as being overly optimistic.

NOW - Finland's President, Alexander Stubb, says Europe can "unequivocally" defend itself, without the Americans. pic.twitter.com/AeHFshxBr5

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) January 21, 2026

Stubb's argument hinges largely on Finland's military reliance on the mandatory conscription of at least 1 million citizens. 

It also assumes other European nations will be able to do the same.  Conscription propaganda in the EU and UK has become commonplace in the past couple of years, and European leaders have been lamenting the lack of interest among citizens to volunteer for service.

Finland and the majority of EU nations rely heavily on US weapons systems and military personnel with the expertise to use those systems.  Then there is the extensive abilities of US intelligence resources from satellites to covert assets.  

In the case of the war in Ukraine, it was largely US resources and intel that stopped Ukraine from being completely overrun by Russian forces.  European governments have been taking a larger part in this role since Donald Trump's return to office, but the fact remains that Russia is not fighting Ukraine so much as it is fighting NATO in Ukraine and NATO is backstopped by the US. 

This has led European leaders to misrepresent Russia's capabilities; downplaying their gains in Ukraine and ignoring their attrition warfare methods which have been grinding down the Ukrainian military.  European elites know that Ukraine is losing despite NATO aid, which is why they have been pushing for conscription and the deployment of troops to the Ukrainian theater.  A possible motive may also be their hope that this will force the US to also deploy ground forces.

The reality is, Europe has little to no industrial capacity needed to sustain a large scale war lasting years rather than months.  They have also been quietly and quickly destroying their own energy production capabilities in the name of "climate change."  Even worse, most Europeans citizens have no intention of dying in the trenches for governments that have openly sought to replace them with third world immigrants.  Recruitment will be difficult or impossible.   

  

A key problem is the fact that European nations have grown comfortable in the shade of America's security umbrella.  They rely almost exclusively on the US as a deterrent to Russian invasion (which is highly unlikely without European provocation).  The vast majority of NATO's defensive capability is reliant on US military spending.  And, because the US foots the bill for Europe's defense, they are free to spend exorbitant budgets on social welfare programs like subsidized healthcare while making fun of Americans for having to pay high prices for doctor's visits. 

Meanwhile, progressive European governments have grown increasingly hostile to free speech and freedom in general.  The crackdown against conservative and "anti-immigration" discourse has placed the EU and UK in direct confrontation with the Trump Administration.  The arrests of citizens for "crimes" as innocuous as flying a national flag or posting memes on social media in the name of "not offending people" brings into question whether or not Americans and Europeans are ideological enemies rather than friends. 

EU governments clearly want to convince their respective populations that Europe can survive without the US.  The claim is delusional.

Trump's battles over NATO membership are hindered by the fact that the President requires a two-thirds senate vote to withdraw from the agreement.  However, his efforts to acquire Greenland present on interesting scenario.  If Trump forces the sale of Greenland (or takes Greenland by force), European governments will effectively end the NATO alliance themselves.  In other words, Trump won't need a Senate vote.  

The general reaction from many conservatives to the threat of a broken NATO alliance is "good riddance".  Why should Americans continue to spend their tax dollars and risk their lives coddling Europe?  It's a response the Europeans do not seem to understand.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/23/2026 - 04:15

IMEC's Future Is Once Again In Doubt

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), which was envisaged as a game-changing geo-economic megaproject when it was announced in September 2023 at the G20 Summit in Delhi, was abruptly frozen by the Gaza War that broke out a month later and the West Asian War that followed.

The end of those conflicts then gave rise to optimism that Saudi Arabia would normalize ties with Israel like it reportedly planned to do prior to their outbreak as the political prerequisite for building IMEC.

After all, without the normalization of Israeli-Saudi ties, there can be no logistical connection between IMEC’s Emirati and Israeli Mideast anchors across the West Asian landmass.

Saudi Arabia requires Israel at least making superficial concessions on Palestinian independence, however, which Israel under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is opposed to doing after the latest wars.

This dilemma might therefore derail IMEC yet again unless the US mediates a creative compromise or gets one of them to back down.

That’s difficult to imagine as a result of three fast-moving developments in December.

The first was Israel’s recognition of Somaliland’s 1991 redeclaration of independence as a sovereign state. Saudi Arabia fiercely opposes this, and while it was argued here that Israel was motivated more by its rivalry with Turkiye than its one with Iran (whose Houthi allies still control North Yemen), a related motivation could have been to ensure the security of maritime trade with India in the absence of IMEC.

That’s reasonable if Israel tacitly accepted by then that the normalization of ties with Saudi Arabia won’t happen as a result of pressure upon it by the international Muslim community (Ummah) over the humanitarian consequences of the Gaza War.

Shortly afterwards, Saudi Arabia militarily aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood’s Yemeni branch against UAE-backed South Yemen despite considering the group as a whole to be terrorists, after which South Yemen was swiftly conquered by the Saudis’ Yemeni allies.

Israel just finished a war with the Brotherhood’s Palestinian branch, Hamas, so the aforementioned development would have understandably led to a further deterioration of trust in the Saudis.

In parallel, the Saudis demanded that the UAE withdraw from South Yemen within 24 hours, which it did. That ultimatum also described the UAE’s actions in South Yemen as a threat to Saudi national security. Even though they didn’t come to blows in South Yemen, trust between them is now absolutely destroyed.

Accordingly, even if Israeli-Saudi ties were to normalize in spite of Saudi anger at Israel over its recognition of Somaliland, new Israeli distrust of the Saudis over their military alignment with the Muslim Brotherhood in Yemen, the Ummah’s pressure on Saudi Arabia, and new Saudi-Emirati tensions would still undermine tangible progress on building IMEC.

India’s trade with Israel and Europe will therefore remain reliant on traditional maritime routes since IMEC’s future is once again in doubt.

In fact, given how serious Saudi Arabia’s problems with the UAE and Israel are, IMEC might never get off the ground at all.

India might then strengthen its ties with those two afterwards since it could consider them to be more reliable partners, especially after Saudi Arabia’s mutual defense pact with India’s Pakistani nemesis last September that Turkiye now wants to join too.

The end of IMEC might then result in an Emirati-Indian-Israeli bloc formed in opposition to the emerging Saudi-Pakistani-Turkish one.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/23/2026 - 03:30

Netanyahu Skipped 'Board Of Peace' Signing In Davos On ICC Arrest Fears

One of the more interesting aspects to the Thursday signing ceremony for President Donald Trump's 'Board of Peace' in Davos, Switzerland was who was not in attendance.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu failed to attend the signing ceremony, but not necessarily by choice, as he is currently unable to travel to much of Europe on fears of being arrested.

via Associated Press

In 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and then-Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, alleging war crimes that included using starvation as a weapon of war and deliberately targeting civilians, as well as crimes against humanity.

Gaza sources have said over 70,000 Palestinians were killed in the some two-year long bombardment and siege of the Gaza Strip in the wake of the Oct.7, 2023 terror attacks by Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Israel has countered that tens of thousands of the deceased were armed Hamas militants.

Israel was still represented at the signing ceremony, however:

Netanyahu was replaced at the summit by Israel's President Isaac Herzog, who travelled to Davos on Tuesday and met German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock.

During the meeting, Herzog criticised the absence of Israeli officials from the forum and called for the removal of ICC arrest warrants issued against Israeli leaders, describing the court's actions as "politically motivated".

Israeli leaders have blasted the ICC, along with the US, which has actually sanctioned some ICC officials. "Israel is given here a bum rap. I think it’s dangerous. Basically, it’s the first democracy being taken to the dock when it is doing exactly what democracies should be doing in an exemplary way," Netanyahu told CNN in a past interview. "It endangers all other democracies. Israel is first, but you’re next. Britain is next. Others are next, too."

As for the newly initiated Board of Peace, the White House earlier this month named several members of the Trump administration, as well as international leaders, to top positions. It officially aims to mobilize international resources while overseeing Gaza's transition and reconstruction. But critics have said it's a colonial-style land grab and Western investment project which has nothing to do with the interests of the Palestinian people.

This is who is on the board and participated in the signing event:

• Isa bin Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, minister of the prime minister’s court, Bahrain
• Nasser Bourita, minister of foreign affairs, Morocco
• Javier Milei, president, Argentina
• Nikol Pashinyan, prime minister, Armenia
• Ilham Aliyev, President, Azerbaijan
• Rosen Zhelyazkov, prime minister, Bulgaria
• Viktor Orban, prime minister, Hungary 
• Prabowo Subianto, president, Indonesia
• Ayman Al Safadi, minister of foreign affairs, Jordan
• Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, president, Kazakhstan
• Vjosa Osmani-Sadriu, president, Kosovo
• Mian Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif, prime minister, Pakistan
• Santiago Peña, president, Paraguay
• Mohammed Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, president, Qatar
• Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, minister of foreign affairs, Saudi Arabia
• Hakan Fidan, minister of foreign affairs, Turkey
• Khaldoon Khalifa Al Mubarak, special envoy to the U.S. for the UAE
• Shavkat Mirziyoyev, president, Uzbekistan
• Gombojavyn Zandanshatar, prime minister, Mongolia

And here's something deeply ironic: 11 of the 25 countries on Trump's Board of Peace are currently banned from immigrant visas to the United States.

Jared Kushner presenting this morning at the “Board of Peace” ceremony their mock ups of “New Gaza” & “New Rafah.” pic.twitter.com/zWuhhqPVz1

— Vaughn Hillyard (@VaughnHillyard) January 22, 2026

Trump will chair the board, which will be tasked with overseeing the next phase in Gaza. Dozens of countries have been invited to join. Notably absent from the Davos signing event were Canada, France, Germany, Italy and some other European nations.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/23/2026 - 02:45

Is BRICS Gearing Up To Protect Global Maritime Trade Against All Enemies?

Authored by Miguel Santos García via GlobalResearch.ca,

The inaugural BRICS joint naval exercise, “Will for Peace 2026”, that unfolded off the coast of South Africa from January 9 to the 16 marked a significant and symbolic evolution for the bloc but not without its hurdles. With the participation of naval forces from China, South Africa, Russia and Iran in the first multilateral military exercise under the BRICS, its location near the strategic chokepoint of Simon’s Town, SA – a crucial nexus between the South Atlantic and Indian Oceans – is a deliberate projection of presence into vital global trade arteries.

Previously, these nations have engaged in bilateral and trilateral exercises. However, “Will for Peace 2026” is distinctly different. Chinese military expert Zhang Junshe said it is a milestone as the first formal exercise within the BRICS framework itself.

The exercise stated objectives of deepening military exchanges, improving collective response capabilities to maritime threats, and safeguarding the security of trade routes and sea lanes. With an exercise curriculum, featuring anti-terrorism drills, hostage rescue, ship recovery and maritime assault maneuvers, covers a wide spectrum of potential disruptions.

For BRICS nations, the ability to conduct complex joint operations enhances their strategic autonomy, ensuring that vital sea lanes are not solely under the protection or potential control of traditional Western powers. In this way it is a move to “de-risk” their maritime security from the foreign policy whims of others.

Thus, it would seem the nascent institutionalization of defense cooperation moves BRICS beyond an economic dialogue forum into the realm of tangible security coordination.

Asserting Maritime Multipolar Sovereignty?

The BRICS maritime exercises occur against a backdrop of escalating and evolving US piracy threats that increasingly blur the lines between criminal acts and geopolitical coercion. Recent years have seen sophisticated hijackings and attacks targeting vessels from states the US has sanctioned like Iran, Russia, and Venezuela — some of them being China bound — all BRICS/BRICS+ partners.

This is a concerning trend of vessel seizures that target nations already under intense Western sanctions. The theft of tankers linked to Iran, Russia, and Venezuela points to a dangerous new paradigm where maritime crime becomes a tool for applying indirect pressure or for profiteering from geopolitical isolation.

“Peace Will 2026” then signals an intent to develop a bloc-specific capacity to secure member states’ sovereign assets, ensuring they are not solely reliant on Western-led coalitions whose political priorities may conflict with their own.

These nations, all key partners within the expanded BRICS/BRICS+ framework, find their critical energy exports uniquely vulnerable on the high seas. Hence the possible wish to develop an independent capacity to deter, intervene in, and resolve such incidents, ensuring that the bloc’s members’ assets are not sitting ducks against western pressure.

Although, this naval initiative is not necessarily an explicit declaration of hostility toward the United States, but rather a manifestation of a multipolar world in action. In a world where U.S. sanctions, unilateral actions, or naval posturing can disrupt economic lifelines, having a parallel cooperative security mechanism provides a counterweight capable of responding to threats that these nations themselves define, whether they be piracy, terrorism, or the coercive use of naval power by any state.

Decoding BRICS Peace Will 2026

However, to interpret this exercise solely as the birth of a unified naval bloc opposing the West is an oversimplification with the most significant limiting factor being internal fragmentation and lack of synchronicity. BRICS is not a monolithic alliance with a shared security vision but a consortium of often competing interests.

The unfolding “Will for Peace 2026” exercise has swiftly transformed from a display of BRICS unity into a stark revelation of its inherent tensions and the punishing realities of global alignment. South Africa’s eleventh-hour decision to relegate the visiting Iranian naval contingent from active participants to mere observers exposes the fundamental contradiction at the heart of the bloc’s ambitions and a wariness to US pressure. While aiming to project strategic autonomy from Western-led security structures, Pretoria found its symbolic gesture colliding with the hard calculus of national interest. The threat of jeopardizing its crucial trade benefits under the U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), currently up for renewal, proved far more powerful than the allure of a consolidated anti-Western front.

This diplomatic reversal lays bare the bloc’s internal fractures, not only does it show South Africa’s precarious balancing act, but it also points to a potential failure of coordination, with reports suggesting the Iranian invitation was extended by a maverick general without full presidential sanction. Consequently, what was intended as a landmark demonstration of a multipolar maritime alternative may instead become a case study in the limits of such partnerships, demonstrating how Western economic leverage can swiftly unravel symbolic military posturing and forcing a reluctant host to choose between ideological companionship and economic survival.

The absence of India from these inaugural drills is very telling as the country is a major maritime power with its own tensions with China and strong ties to Western security initiatives like the QUAD.

Similarly, other new members like the UAE and Saudi Arabia maintain deep, strategic security relationships with the United States.

Consequently, “Peace Will 2026” serves multiple, overlapping purposes, at its core, it is a functional capacity-building exercise addressing real security gaps, particularly for sanctioned states. But also, it is a powerful piece of political performance, for China can show its leadership and normalize its far-sea naval presence, for Russia, it demonstrates strategic partnership despite isolation over Ukraine, while for South Africa, it affirms a “non-aligned” foreign policy. Its ultimate aspiration, however, is undeniably strategic of laying the groundwork for an alternative system of trade security guarantors.

“Peace Will 2026” is thus a pilot project led by its most geopolitically aligned members, not a demonstration of full-bloc consensus. While the current exercise involves only four of the ten BRICS members, it sets a powerful precedent. For global trade, this could eventually mean more actors with the capability to secure chokepoints and patrol routes, potentially reducing reliance on a single power.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 23:25

Billionaire Sports Mogul Has Quietly Become America's Largest Private Landowner

Stan Kroenke, the billionaire sports magnate who owns the NFL’s Los Angeles Rams and England’s Arsenal FC, has quietly ascended to the top of America’s private landownership rankings, controlling more than 2.7 million acres following a blockbuster off-market acquisition in December, according to The Land Report.

Stan Kroenke (photo via The Land Report)

The deal saw Kroenke purchase over 937,000 acres of ranchland in New Mexico from the heirs of Teledyne founder Henry Singleton, marking the largest single private land transaction in the U.S. in more than a decade, according to The Land Report’s 2026 ranking of the nation’s 100 largest landowners.

The noncontiguous parcels, focused on cattle and horse operations, vaulted Kroenke from fourth place into the No. 1 spot, surpassing the Emmerson family’s 2.44 million acres of timberland through Sierra Pacific Industries, Liberty Media’s John Malone at 2.2 million acres, and former CNN owner Ted Turner’s 2 million acres, Fox Business reports.

Kroenke, who built his fortune in real estate development before expanding into professional sports, has assembled his sprawling portfolio - primarily ranching and grazing land - across the American West and into Canada over decades.

Key holdings include the 560,000-acre Q Creek Ranch in Wyoming, the historic 535,000-acre Waggoner Ranch in Texas, Montana’s Broken O Ranch, Nevada’s Winecup Gamble Ranch, and British Columbia’s Douglas Lake Ranch, according to The Land Report.

How staggering is Kroenke’s total land holdings?

Well, it now exceeds the size of Yellowstone National Park and equates to roughly 2 million football fields, according to Fox Business.

Notably, Microsoft co-founder and one-time Epstein pal Bill Gates remains the largest private owner of dedicated farmland, with approximately 275,000 acres of productive agricultural land across multiple states—far smaller in overall scale but notable amid rising interest in our food supply.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 23:00

US Begins 'Transfer' Of ISIS Prisoners From Syria To Iraq, Mulls Full Withdrawal

Via The Cradle

US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced in a fresh statement that it has launched a mission to transfer ISIS fighters from Syria to Iraqi government-controlled facilities. The announcement came hours after the Syrian army entered the Al-Hawl Camp in the country’s north, resulting in the escape of thousands of ISIS and ISIS-linked prisoners.

“CENTCOM launched a new mission to transfer ISIS detainees from northeastern Syria to Iraq … to help ensure the terrorists remain in secure detention facilities,” the CENTCOM statement said. “The transfer mission began while US forces successfully transported 150 ISIS fighters held at a detention facility in Hasakah, Syria, to a secure location in Iraq. Ultimately, up to 7,000 ISIS detainees could be transferred from Syria to Iraqi-controlled facilities,” it added.

US Army image

CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper was quoted as saying that Washington is “closely coordinating with regional partners, including the Iraqi government, and we sincerely appreciate their role in ensuring the enduring defeat of ISIS.”

“Facilitating the orderly and secure transfer of ISIS detainees is critical to preventing a breakout that would pose a direct threat to the United States and regional security,” he added.

The CENTCOM chief failed to mention the release of scores of ISIS members in Syria over the past few days.

This week, the Syrian military entered Hasakah Governorate’s Al-Hawl Camp, which for around a decade housed tens of thousands of ISIS prisoners and their families, including foreigners who entered Syria illegally to join the US-backed war against former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s government.

Since the Syrian army entered the camp on 20 January, thousands of ISIS members and their families have been released from Al-Hawl.  Videos on social media showed government-affiliated troops arriving at Al-Hawl and allowing the prisoners to leave. 

Over 25,000 people were held in the camp prior to the withdrawal of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which recently lost most of its territory across northern Syria following the start of a massive assault by Damascus. 

“It remains unclear how many detainees have fled and who currently controls the camp,” one of the camp’s overseers told Rudaw. The camp is made up of prisons that held ISIS fighters for years, as well as areas designated for internally displaced people.

Syrian Government Forces have raised the flag of ISIS in Al Karama town east of Raqqah. pic.twitter.com/M5iYwlZtih

— ScharoMaroof (@ScharoMaroof) January 21, 2026

Al-Roj Camp and the Hasakah Prison also hold tens of thousands of ISIS militants. Government forces are nearby but have not yet entered those two prisons.

Yet Hasakah’s Al-Shaddadi Prison fell to government troops three days ago after the SDF said it could no longer hold the facility due to continuous attacks. The Kurdish group slammed the US coalition, located at a base two kilometers away, for ignoring repeated distress calls and requests for assistance. 

According to Kurdish media, at least 1,500 ISIS members have escaped from Al-Shaddadi. Damascus claims a little over 100 ISIS members escaped, and accused the SDF of letting them out.

According to Damascus-linked media reports, 81 ISIS prisoners have been detained by authorities out of a total of 120 who were “let out” by the Kurdish militia.

“I did a great job. You know what I did? I stopped a prison break,” US President Donald Trump boasted to the New York Post on January 20. “Oh, we did a good job with Syria. They had a prison break. European prisoners were breaking out and I got it stopped. That was yesterday,” he went on to say. 

“European terrorists were in prison. They had a prison break. And working with the government of Syria and the new leader of Syria, they captured all the prisoners, put them back to jail, and these were the worst terrorists in the world, all from Europe,” he added, referring to foreign extremists who entered Syria years ago to join Washington’s war against Assad.

NEW: The Pentagon is considering a complete withdrawal of American troops from Syria, U.S. officials said, as Syria’s president moved to wrest control of the northeastern part of the country from an American-backed Kurdish-led militia https://t.co/YRziAcjnoW @laraseligman

— Dave Brown (@dave_brown24) January 22, 2026

The US military has, for years, been transferring ISIS militants across different countries in the region. In 2021, Iraq’s anti-ISIS Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) revealed that thermal cameras had recorded US military helicopters transferring ISIS militants to different locations in the country.

In August 2017, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported seeing US choppers transporting ISIS fighters in and out of the city of Deir Ezzor multiple times. The last reports of these activities came mere days before Syrian and Russian troops retook the city from the terrorist group. 

The former Syrian government also said years ago that ISIS fighters were being moved out of a Kurdish-run prison and relocated to a US military base. Since the government assault on the north started earlier this month, Kurdish authorities have been warning that attacks on prisons pose the threat of triggering a major ISIS resurgence. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 22:35

White House Aims For Cuba Regime Change By Year-End

Brimming with bravado after snatching Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a lightning raid on Caracas earlier this month, the Trump administration has now set a goal to end Communism in Cuba by the end of the year, according to sources who talked to the Wall Street Journal. 

Using the Venezuela operation as a blueprint, the White House is working to identify people inside the Cuban government who could be ripe for making a deal in which they use their position to help oust the current leadership, including President and First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba Miguel Diaz-Canel. Maduro's capture was reportedly enabled by an asset in his inner circle, who helped the CIA closely monitor Maduro's movements and daily habits ahead of the brazen snatch-and-grab mission.  

White House eyeing a one-two punch: Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel with then-Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro (Cubainformación TV)

Following Maduro's ouster, Trump used his Truth Social account to warn that the Venezuela operation spelled doom for the communist government of Cuba, and that they should cut a "deal" soon:  

"Cuba lived, for many years, on large amounts of OIL and MONEY from Venezuela. In return, Cuba provided “Security Services” for the last two Venezuelan dictators, BUT NOT ANYMORE! Most of those Cubans are DEAD from last weeks U.S.A. attack...THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA - ZERO! I strongly suggest they make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE."

According to the Journal's sources, the White House views the Cuban regime as teetering on the edge of collapse, and increasingly vulnerable with the loss of its Venezuelan trading partners. Assessments by the U.S. intelligence community paint a grim picture inside the communist nation, with Cuba’s tourism and agriculture industries significantly affected by shortages of medicine and basic necessities, routine blackouts, trade sanctions, and a host of other problems. Tourism has declined since the COVID-19 pandemic, and Cuba's economy has retracted alongside Venezuela’s over the past decade. 

China is delivering 30,000 tons of rice to Cuba, which is facing severe food and fuel shortages due to the U.S. blockade. The delivery is part of a new Chinese emergency aid program, and the first shipment arrived on Monday with the second shipment arriving at the Port of… pic.twitter.com/apHUokTk6Z

— BreakThrough News (@BTnewsroom) January 20, 2026

Amid growing unease with Trump's interventionism -- including among a broad swath of conservatives -- Trump officials who spoke to the Journal sought to distinguish the administration's activism from the long line of regime-change efforts he railed against as a candidate: 

Some Trump officials said the president rejects regime-change strategies of the past. Instead, he looks to make deals where possible and to take advantage of opportunities as they come up, a senior Trump official said. As in Venezuela, this could look like escalating pressure while indicating the White House is open to negotiating an off-ramp, the official said. -- WSJ

A "White House official" reiterated Trump's warning about making a deal while there's still time, saying, “Cuba’s rulers are incompetent Marxists who have destroyed their country, and they have had a major setback with the Maduro regime that they are responsible for propping up." While the rhetoric suggests a preference for an ouster facilitated solely through the use of enterprising insiders, it seems one can't rule out another military assault. Cuban blood has already been shed in Trump's push to establish a new level of US dominance over the Americas, as 32 soldiers and intel agents were killed in the Jan. 3 US assault on Caracas.  

Some observers worry that a collapse of the Cuban government could bring about a major humanitarian crisis that could usher in yet another costly US nation-building program, and waves of refugees seeking asylum. In contrast to Venezuela, Cuba hasn't had any kind of organized political opposition or parties poised to graduate to managing the country.  

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 22:10

Booming US Firearms Industry Could Get 2026 Deregulatory Boost From Trump Administration

Authored by John Haughey via The Epoch Times,

Record sales made the first year of the second Trump administration a profitable one for the nation’s $92 billion firearms industry, but the potential for federal regulatory rollbacks in his second year could provide manufacturers and retailers with long-term assurances they need to thrive.

That is why state lawmakers need to act fast, South Dakota Gov. Larry Rhoden said, calling on Republicans in state capitols nationwide to “seize the opportunity we see right now with Trump” in the White House to adopt bills that protect gun owners’ rights.

“We were just playing defense” for years, said Rhoden, one of seven Republican governors to participate in a Jan. 21 Governors’ Forum on the firearms industry during the second day of the Jan. 20–23 Shooting, Hunting, Outdoor Trade (SHOT) Show at the Venetian Expo and Caesars Forum in Las Vegas.

“We’ve taken the lead in South Dakota” by adopting a bill that bans “coding firearms,” he said. “We have an opportunity, and we need to retake advantage of it” right now before the midterms to “move the needle” on such issues as deregulating suppressors and interstate firearms commerce, he added.

The Trump administration has not been as aggressive in addressing firearms reform as it has in other realms, but White House Counsel David Warrington said that’s about the change.

He noted Deputy U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche is at the annual show, which is projected to draw more than 55,000 industry executives and sales staff from all 50 states and more than 126 countries to tour 2,800 vendors offering wares on “13.9 miles of aisles” sprawled across 19 acres on The Strip.

Among changes expected to be forwarded by the administration in 2026 include proposals to ease private gun sales, ship firearms interstate via mail, export firearms overseas, trim fees for licensed retailers, and simplify the 4473 Form required when purchasing a firearm, including requiring applicants list their biological sex at birth.

President Donald Trump recognizes gun owners are among his most ardent supporters, Warrington said, adding the president checks with him and Assistant Attorney General Harmeet K. Dhillon, who leads the Department of Justice’s Civil Rights Division’s Second Amendment group, to ensure gun owners’ rights are secure and to ask about initiatives to further strengthen them.

“He tells me, ‘The people that stuck with me through the toughest and hardest times are the same people who believe in the Second Amendment,’” Warrington said.

Industry In Demand

There are more than 10,000 U.S. companies that manufacture, distribute, and sell firearms, ammunition, and hunting equipment. They directly employ nearly 151,000 people and generate an additional 232,327 supplier/ancillary jobs, earning more than $26 billion in wages while contributing $91.65 billion in activity to the nation’s economy in 2024, the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) documents in its Firearm and Ammunition Industry Economic Impact Report for 2025.

That’s nearly a 400 percent increases compared to the $19.1 billion it generated in 2008, the foundation notes, adding the industry’s average $68,300 annual salary is above median workforce ranges, and that the industry and its employees paid nearly $11 billion in local and state taxes, and $941.8 million in excise taxes paid to Pittman-Robertson Wildlife Restoration Fund in 2024.

The industry is boosted by millions of new gun owners over the last five years who have undergone review on the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), although the number of background checks—an indicator, but not verified documentation, of a sale—declined by 4 percent in to 14.6 million in 2025 from 15.38 million in 2004, the foundation documents.

The foundation, whose 9,000 members include manufacturers, distributors, retailers, shooting ranges, and publishers, is the nation’s largest gun owners’ rights lobbying presence in Washington. According to Open Secrets, it spent $5.5 million on DC lobbying in 2025 and nearly $7 million in 2024. During those same two years, the National Rifle Association spent $2.2 million and $4.9 million, respectively, on federal lobbying.

Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders speaks with firearms industry representatives on Jan. 21, 2026, after participating in a Governors’ Forum at the SHOT Show in Las Vegas, where 60,000 people are expected to view and purchase outdoors and law enforcement gear from more than 2,800 companies during the three-day annual trade show. John Haughey/Epoch Times

Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders said her state has targeted firearms manufacturers because they produce quality products and pay employees well with benefits. She offered advice to companies unhappy with the regulatory environment they are now in, such as those in leading firearms manufacturer states like California.

“First thing, operate in a red state. One of the reasons is blue states make so many regulations,“ she said, adding that manufacturers are ”looking for a new place to go” where development codes are manageable, energy is available, and the industry is appreciated.

“Arkansas is a red state. It is the best red state,” Sanders said, noting it is third in the nation in per capita industry impact.

“The only reason we aren’t number one is so many people in Arkansas are buying these products and keeping them in-state.”

Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte said the state’s economic development agency receives “three to six” calls a week from firearms manufacturers about relocating to Montana. He recently heard about a company having issues with Colorado regulations and “cold-called them,” he said. “I have a simple pitch: ‘Come back to America,’” which the state has turned into a marketing video.

The biggest obstacle to the industry’s growth, the governors agreed, is the availability of a workforce with skills in needed crafts such as CMC (Computerized Machining Center) operators, welders, and gunsmiths, with all touting state programs that link companies with high school and community college vocational education programs.

Tyler Durden Thu, 01/22/2026 - 17:00