The Big Picture

Transcript: Wilhelm Schmid, A. Lange & Söhne CEO

 

 

The transcript from this week’s MiB: A. Lange & Söhne CEO Wilhelm Schmid, is below.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple PodcastsSpotifyYouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

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Barry Ritholtz: This week on an extra special live edition of Masters in Business, I’m at the Audra Newport Concourse de Elegance, and my conversation is with Wilhelm Schmidt. He is the CEO of Ang Zona, one of the finest watch companies in the world. They’re located in Glashutte, Germany.

Our conversation talked about everything from collectible timepieces to collectible cars. I found it fascinating, and I think you will also, with no further ado, my discussion with Alan’s owners, Wilhelm Schmidt. Wilhelm Schmidt, welcome to Bloomberg

Wilhelm Schmid:   Thank you so much, Barry. Thank you.

Barry Ritholtz: Thank you so much for this, for hosting this event and, and participating in our conversation. I have, I have so many things to talk to you about, but I have to start with this prestigious concourse in this spectacular setting on what could be the nicest day of the year. What is the connection between classic cars and fine mechanical time pieces?

Wilhelm Schmid:  Some mean people say me because I like cars and watches and watches and cars, but I think it’s of course more than that. You know, watchmaking is, that’s what we emphasize on and 90% of our energy will go into watchmaking. That, that’s, that’s, that’s our home turf. But I believe as a global brand, you also need to find a world that is focused on something else, but where you have sort of a common ground that you can walk on.

And about 14 years ago, we were looking for a platform where we can show the brand and where we can bring customers to entertain. And if you look at these cars, let’s start with the cars and, and look at the word concourse of elegance. So we are not in vintage cars or racing, it’s about concourse of elegance. You know, it’s about beauty, it’s about heritage, it’s about craftsmanship, it’s about design. And if you look onto the pillars on which our brand rests, it is exactly, it’s it’s history, heritage, it’s design, and it’s of course the craftsmanship. And trust me, these cars that you see here, as they were built, they were built by proper craftsmen. And even today, without proper craftsman, you will not keep them on the road.

Barry Ritholtz: I know that you studied as an engineer and mechanic before eventually moving over to, to watches, obviously the design ethos of some of these cars. Yeah. They’re just so phenomenal and spectacular. What sort of inspiration do you running a, a fine watchmaker take from the designs of these cars?

Wilhelm Schmid: I don’t think you can immediately take something from that world into our world, but if you look at these cars, well, the first thing that comes to mind is some of them are 50, 60, 80, a hundred years old. And we look at them today and they still fascinate us. So obviously that design survived all the different fashion change of taste, odds of time. They’re here today and they’re as attracted as they were probably back then when they were brand new.

If you look at specifically the purpose-built car, you know, the race cars, they were built for only one purpose and that’s what they were perfect in. And I think in watches you also have to identify what is it that you emphasize on, and then don’t compromise too much on it because if you start making big compromises, you end up with something which is, you know, a little bit of everything, but nothing particularly really good. So I think that’s what you can take from cars into watches, identify the purpose, and then everything should direct to achieve that. If I call it the North Star, you know that purpose and for watches, it’s exactly the same. So

Barry Ritholtz: There’s a lovely white Mercedes going out there. (Yes. With the red interior.) And I once heard someone ask you to compare A Lange to a car, and you thought about it and said the gull wing, because the design was purposeful from start to finish. Tell us what you mean by purposeful in either watch or car design.

Wilhelm Schmid: You know, if you, if you go back and think about the mid fifties in Germany, I mean, I wasn’t born there. I’m not that old, but you know, I can, I see, I saw pictures, I saw pictures of the Autobar and I saw the cars on the road back then. And then think about very suddenly something like the gold wing appears. I mean, an alien could have landed and caused the same result.

Barry Ritholtz: Tubular frame up racing an,

Wilhelm Schmid: d 210 horsepower you know, the 235 kilometers an hour high speed. You know what it did, the doors.

Barry Ritholtz: ’cause you couldn’t have a door over that frame exactly for the body, they were too wide.

Wilhelm Schmid: Right. So they just came up with the doors and you know what they did at limit? They wanted to permit that because in the book it, it didn’t say explicitly, it’s not allowed, but, you know, no got much Negotiated.

Barry Ritholtz:  And they did very well,

Wilhelm Schmid: Absolutely they did. Absolutely did it. No, but I think the car was made for one purpose and it was winning races in the first place and, and, and paving the way for Mercedes internationally to be back where they wanted to be. And that is very high up. Don’t forget the price of these cars. I mean, you could probably bought streets for the same price, not houses or streets in, in, in the mid fifties ar

Barry Ritholtz: Arguably the first supercar ever made. So you’re a connoisseur of vintage cars. I know you have a couple of Porsches. Tell us what else you like in, in classic automobiles?

Wilhelm Schmid: I do like the, what I call the odd balls. The Porsche that I have are actually the exceptions because everybody knows what a nine 11 is. And probably many people know what a 356 is. So that’s, I don’t say utility, but these cars are, you know, the, the, the 356 is my Swiss pocket knife.  Because you know, you can go on a tour with it, which I take that car a lot and if the weather is nice, you just open the roof and it takes you 30 seconds and if the rain comes, it takes you 30 seconds to bring the roof back on. It is not as watertight as you think it is. I have to say. There’s still a lot of water coming through, but at least you’re roughly protected against the environment.

And the 911 is the car that I never wanted and I will never sell. It’s just a fantastic driving car. But you know, the other cars that I have are more for people that really know about cars. You know, if I share somebody, I have a Fraser Nash, most people right. Wouldn’t even know what that is. And that’s not a surprise because I think they build about 600 cars pre-war and then about 83 post-war. So the likelihood that you know it, if you’re not into the hobby is very high.

Barry Ritholtz: So I keep me meeting people here, chatting about cars, chatting about watches. When I was doing a little research on you, it turns out that you really know the firm’s clients, both customers and collectors. What do you do in an event like this? How much time do you spend with some of the longer collectors and people who are so enthusiastic about the brand?

Wilhelm Schmid: I would say 90%. You know, really, if I’m not in interviews with you, then I’m out there and, and, and talking to our customers, you know, that’s the most important for us because at the end we mustn’t forget all that is not paid by Lang and Zuna. This is paid by our customers.

Barry Ritholtz: there’s a quote of yours I really enjoyed. We wanna surprise, inspire and enchant our clients with an unprecedented imagination and ingenuity. How do you go from those lofty goals to turning it into a mechanical time piece?

Wilhelm Schmid: Yeah, well first of all, it takes strict discipline. The moment you do things that are not in line with who you are, you may surprise people, but probably not positively. And, and for sure eventually will dilute your, your your brand equity. So the third thing is you have to apply this simply. That’s why we have six different watch families and we have sort of a horizon of seven years and we wanna apply each watch family at least once, let’s say within 24 months rolling. So that’s, you know, sort of the, the engineering structure all attempts. That doesn’t answer your question. I know staying traditional, but thinking out of the box because our value set is very traditional, but our thinking is often very much out of the box.

I give you a good example. The torubillion has been invented by Breguet, I think about 280 years back or so, something like this. It was there to enhance the accuracy of a watch by, you know, eliminating the mistake that happened through gravity, basically

Barry Ritholtz: Mostly pocket watches, which we’re always facing downwards,

Wilhelm Schmid: and of course it’s a very delicate mechanism. It it does do the job because think about you put your watch on desk next to your bed, so at least for 10 hours it is exposed to gravity without moving. Anyhow, I wanna argue the necessity of a ion. What we found very interesting is that it was there to enhance the accuracy, but it was impossible to set time correctly. Because if you do that with a running second, it is pure luck that you hit exactly the point. So we were the first in 2009 to come up with a mechanism that makes the toon stop. So the second hand comes to a stop and you can adjust the time properly. We then went one step further with the 1815 tobe beyond where you’re not only stopped the moment you pull the crown, that second then goes to zero, which is the best way to adjust your watch properly.

Now that sounds easy, but if you take into consideration that that tour beyond has about 85 little parts, the total weight is about oh 0.75 gram wow. You, you know, any impact and the mechanism will be destroyed. So you have to be very careful in what you do. That is just one example where we think out of the box, a chronograph with sort of a, a running minute, which most of them do, you know, the second hand goes and it’s catching the, the minute counter. And then as, as the second hand goes on, the minute counter slowly moves, which makes it quite difficult. Is it now two minutes or three minutes or four minutes. So hours in most cases have the jumping. So it’s the second hand crosses the 12th, it jumps by one minute. So you absolutely clear it’s one minute, two minute, three minute or four minute, not is it two and a half or is it three? Just little things that don’t mean a lot for people that are not into fine watches, but they mean the world for our customers.

Barry Ritholtz: I want to talk about the Odysseus in a little bit. Yes. And that particular chronograph, which is fairly unique, but we’re, we’re not quite there yet. I wanna stay with the fact that Longa is famously a German watchmaker. What advantages are there or disadvantages Yeah. For being a German maker in an industry dominated by giant Swiss brands?

Wilhelm Schmid: I think it’s more an advantage than a disadvantage. First of all, I always say there is no Swiss watchmaking and there’s no German watchmaking. Because think about it. I mean, you can find Swiss made watches for a hundred euro and then you find, find the same for a few million. How, how, how can, how can be there any common denominator that covers the Swiss mate from there to there. So same for Germany. You know, we have watches that are very inexpensive and then you have us with sometimes watches up to 2 million obviously at the, at the top end. It’s like a package, it’s like a box of chocolate, you know. And our chocolate is craftsmanship, history and design. And we stay very strict to it.

00:13:00 [Speaker Changed] So some of the bigger brands put out watches in the millions of units. Rolex famously two to 3 million. Patek is known to do about 75,000 watches. Longa does a small fraction. Every piece is made by hand assembled twice.

Barry Ritholtz: And not because we can’t get it right first time — its assembled first and then the pieces are taken apart and hand engraved and decorated.

Wilhelm Schmid: It’s you know, because we use the original sources, we believe that anything that nothing is much better than, than German silver. You know, that’s the perfect material. It’s been, it’s been good for the last 150 years.  So we believe in this and we don’t want to coat it. Which means over time it will develop a very nice patina, you know, the silver will get that little golden glow, which is beautiful.

Problem is you breathe on it or you touch it, it will look very ugly very soon. And you cannot even clean it. You have to machine it. So that means to, to, to to, to maintain a statical and technical perfection, you first have to make sure your movement is absolutely up to scratch. All tolerances are there, everything is adjusted, everything works.

You go through the test and if you have assurance, you know, that movement is like, it has to be, it goes back to the watchmaker. He or she will disassemble it, clean it, put in the final decoration because now you know you don’t have to adjust anymore because that’s done. You clean it, you oil it, you put the final decoration in case it goes again through the test, and only then it ends up in a, on a, on a happy wrist.

Barry Ritholtz: So inherently the way you build watches, you’re gonna be somewhat limited in production. How, how does that affect the decision making process of what sort of watches you make? And I know there are a number of Longo watches that are limited editions of a hundred or 50 or even 25. Yes. What’s the thinking behind that?

Wilhelm Schmid: Very easy. You know, sometimes let’s take the minute repeater perpetual calendar that we launched this year in April. We know it’s gonna take us three to four years to build to 50 watches.

Barry Ritholtz: Meaning from start to finish you’ll do a couple of watches every year wow

Wilhelm Schmid: You know, so, and we know that. So in today’s world to come up now with this sort of capacity and say we produce a hundred means the last one will get to watch in eight years.

Barry Ritholtz:  That’s a long time

Wilhelm Schmid: Right. So what that’s, you know, capacity balanced by what we think we can expect from a customer to wait, that usually gives an idea about the limitation.

Barry Ritholtz: I was looking at the Lange Perpetual In black. Yes. And I stopped by the boutique and they said figure somewhere between 12 and 15 months. Before yours is ready. So when someone orders a watch. That goes into the system and my watch is moving. Yeah. it’s literally that specific

The Odysseus came out very unique looking sports watch then a lightweight titanium version.

Wilhelm Schmid: No, first the white gold. White gold. So it was 24th of October 19 stainless steel in April, 2020. White gold, then titanium,

Barry Ritholtz: Then the honey gold,

Wilhelm Schmid: Then the honey gold. No then the odys chronograph.

Barry Ritholtz: Ah The chronograph

Wilhelm Schmid: And then the honey gold.

Barry Ritholtz: So I, let’s talk about the chronograph. Most people are familiar with Chronos ’cause they typically have two or three sub dials. YesNot with the Odysseus

Wilhelm Schmid: Now it wouldn’t work because of the design of the dial. You know, if you look at

Barry Ritholtz: ’cause of the big day and date?

Wilhelm Schmid: If you take the dial off and you look at the movement, the upside of the movement, you will see it’s almost all blocked. So there is no way that you come through. And of course we also didn’t want to increase the size by much, you know, we wanna have a wearable watch. So the only way was to utilize the center even more than we usually do. And that’s why the chronograph, the second and the minute hand comes out of the center.

Barry Ritholtz: And when you reset the chronograph, it does a little bit of a dance. Yeah. That’s kind of unusual. I’ve spoken to a lot of people about this. Nobody has been able to explain that to me. You are my last hope.  Tell us about that.

Wilhelm Schmid: It’s very easy because they are yet together. So if you reset it, the, the minute hand will do as many turns as the second because it’s linked. Right. And it’s so quick that you can’t see. It probably would take a good camera and then you slow it down to see it. But basically, if you have stopped 17 minutes and let’s say 30 seconds, what works? Like this is factually seven times going around to come to zero.

Barry Ritholtz: Why does it, why does it do that?

Wilhelm Schmid: Because it’s geared together. It’s, there’s, you know, because it comes out of the,

00:19:05 [Speaker Changed] It’s strictly because of it’s a centen center hands. I think that’s

00:19:07 [Speaker Changed] Exactly the point.

00:19:08 [Speaker Changed] Huh. That, that’s really, that’s really fascinating. So a watch like the Zet work or the Odysseus, how long is that process when someone first conceives of this, take us through how long it is from idea till the finished product in the boutique.

00:19:24 [Speaker Changed] Very different. You know, Odysseus, as I said, took us 25 years. Basically. I think that the real process where we identify, that’s the phase, you know, that looks different to anything else in the market that will not cannibalize anything within our own range. To to to, to launch, to watch it. The 24th of October, in, in, in, in 2019. I was good. Seven years,

00:19:53 [Speaker Changed] Seven years from start to finish. That’s, that’s amazing. Yeah. So, so yesterday at the event two new longest dropped the Axia thin. Yes. In black Onyx and platinum. Is that

00:20:05 [Speaker Changed] Right? Yes. True. Onyx honey, gold and platinum. Yeah.

00:20:08 [Speaker Changed] Really striking dress watches. The Saxon are sort of, I don’t wanna call it entry level, but they’re less pricey than some of the other watches.

00:20:19 [Speaker Changed] They are more simple, simple. That’s how I show it, you know, it’s, for us, it’s all about the amount of parts the years it take to develop the, the hours it takes to assemble that at the end will define whether it’s a complicated watch or I would say more simple watch and two hands. I think we don’t go more simple than two hands.

00:20:40 [Speaker Changed] And my first nice dress watch was a rose gold Saxon mood phase, you see over black. Yes. And one of the things that people are genuinely surprised is the same level of detail and finishing what, what you describe as simple a lot of people think of in terms of price point. There seems to be no difference. No, no, no. It’s,

00:21:03 [Speaker Changed] You know, if you look at our, our process in the manufacturing, we can, you know, the people that work on finish, they sometimes have no idea where that part will end up. So they will not say, oh, that goes into grand complication. We do it a little better. Or that goes into thin. How we do it a little, that’s

00:21:22 [Speaker Changed] The same thing regardless. Million dollars or entry level.

00:21:25 [Speaker Changed] It, we do not distinguish in quality at all. It’s all the same emphasized on lofty detail, craftsmanship, hand polishing, decoration, hand engraving. There is no difference. Double assembly, it’s one process. It doesn’t matter whether the watch would cost 25,000 euro or 2 million.

00:21:47 [Speaker Changed] And when people say to me, I’m looking for an elegant dress watch, but something that’s not too pricey. My answer is always the Saxon, it’s just timeless, so elegant and continues to just, yes, the design gets better over time.

00:22:03 [Speaker Changed] And, and it’s, it’s, it’s ama you know, people, you look at it and you see it’s an Alan on Zuna watch. If you have something complicated like this, you have a lot of hands to work with. You have the sub dials, you know, you have to push back. You can do a lot. But I think one of the biggest challenge for designers is you have two hands to work with and not a lot on the on the dial. Make it an Alan Zuna.

00:22:28 [Speaker Changed] So the data graph has been called one of the best chronographs ever designed. What’s the core of that Watches appeal? What makes that so special?

00:22:39 [Speaker Changed] I think it’s, it’s, it’s, it’s more than just a watch. You know, I, I’m a watch collector for a long, long time. I can remember when I opened a newspaper in, in, in, in, in 20, in, in 94. And I saw the at with the four lunga watches. 99 were, most companies around the world were still using somebody else movement and often the same supplier. Here comes a chronograph, which is one of the crown things in watchmaking from Germany in a very unique design with an outsized date. I think it was a wake up call. And, and, and we must not estimate what that watch started in the watch industry because before that chronograph didn’t play a role. There were two supplier and that was it basically after that. And if you then go and, and, and, and analyze what happened from then to the following 5, 6, 7 years, a lot of chronograph movements came out. So that’s why this watch is so important for us because that was the first real complication other than the tobe beyond polymer that we worked on. And I think that was a wake up call and it, it, it just gave us a reputation as a solid watchmaker that it’s the next level up

00:24:20 [Speaker Changed] For sure. Absolutely. The next level up. So you get to spend a lot of time with, with clients, with customers. Absolutely. With collectors. How are you seeing the, their expectations and desires changing? What does the client base look for from Longo over the next decade? I think it

00:24:38 [Speaker Changed] Does. It never changed.

00:24:40 [Speaker Changed] Never

00:24:41 [Speaker Changed] Changes. No, you know, first of all, do you have any idea what you will like in three years from now, one

00:24:50 [Speaker Changed] Who does?

00:24:50 [Speaker Changed] Exactly. So when people say, oh, you come with a small watch because you follow trend, I say, look, I mean, I wish we had known seven years ago and we started developing the movement. We are not in the fashion industry. Business, you know, our processes and the time it takes to come to market is so long that you maybe can anticipate, but maybe you have to stay true to yourself. And I think the one thing which our customers expect from us is authenticity. It has to be in Lan Zuna. And if you had followed the discussion after we launched the Odysseus, because you know, we always said, we only precious metal in here, can we steal? And later on with titanium, say, of course there was a heated debate. Of course there was. And we were aware of it because that is a tension that on purpose we wanted, there were a lot of people that said, ah, it’s not for me. I see Langa as dress watch only there were luckily a lot more people that say, I want that watch desperately where we can produce fine. However, it just opened up a new chapter in our design language because now we have a playground to try out things that we would never do with our classical watch families.

00:26:19 [Speaker Changed] And every car enthusiast knows when the Porsche nine 11 came out, the 3 56 purists were upset. What, what are you giving us such a big car who needs six cylinders?

00:26:32 [Speaker Changed] Absolutely. That’s why they built a nine 12. Right. Put the four cylinder in. You know, that’s, that’s exactly what they did. So yeah. That’s funny. Sometimes I

00:26:41 [Speaker Changed] I I love this quote of yours and I’m wondering if it still applies. You said part of longer’s success is that we’re a secret. Yeah. So question number one is what makes that an asset? And question number two is look at this event. How much longer is this a secret? Oh,

00:26:58 [Speaker Changed] It is, it is, it is in the white world. We are still absolutely unknown and I think that’s a good place to be. There are, there are three reasons to it. The one is, what we do is very difficult to understand specifically at the price point that we request for people that are not into fine watchmaking. Why would you spend so much money on a watch when your iPhone gives you the time? More precisely. You know, that the general thinking for sure. The second is, in today’s world, you don’t want to show off too much. At

00:27:40 [Speaker Changed] Least these are very much under the radar. And I am always shocked at people who haven’t the slightest idea when I’m wearing this, as opposed to the better known

00:27:49 [Speaker Changed] Brands. Why isn’t that nice? I mean, that gives you a certain confidence and a certain, it’s, it’s, you know, you don’t need to shout. And on the other hand, and I’m sure you can agree on it, if you see somebody that is also having a una it’s not difficult to, to get the communication started. Isn’t it

00:28:08 [Speaker Changed] Immediate, immediately have something to shout about if you know, you know,

00:28:12 [Speaker Changed] You know for sure. And, and that’s why I believe it is so important to remain a secret. I also admit the real challenges to secret, to share the secret with, you know, the right crowd of people. Because at the end, you know, I mean I’m fine, but whenever we take the new apprenticeship trainees in in August, I feel the duty on my shoulders because now they start a career as watchmaker and they’re in for the next 40 years. So we need to make sure that the next generation knows what we do and we stay relevant for this.

00:28:46 [Speaker Changed] So I only have you for a few more minutes. I want to get to my last couple of questions. Speaking of the next generation. Yeah. How do you appeal to younger buyers and and what sort of approach do you have as all these tastes seem to shift amongst the 20 and 30 something crowd?

00:29:07 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, I gladly we don’t have a real issue here. We have a surprisingly young customer base. I always say that and I never understood it. I mean, if you are young and you’re interested, what speaks against quality, longevity, classless and timeless design. Robustness, value creation. Yeah. I mean, it doesn’t matter whether you are a hundred years old or 10. If you are into that, you’re gonna like it. The way we connect with these people is different to the way, let’s say I was connected to the watch industry because, and as, as I grew up, it was very difficult to find even specialized magazines for, for watches. Today you have everything you can think of. I believe we live in absolute paradise times for for watch enthusiast because never ever in history have there been more watch brands, higher quality, more information, right. More information and easy accessible information. You know, you can do your research without leaving your room. That was impossible in times, you know, where I started to get into the hobby,

00:30:21 [Speaker Changed] Although I, I would tell people go see the watch. Go try it on, make sure that’s

00:30:26 [Speaker Changed] The only thing that matters. That’s right. It’s the only, I would just say the natural habitat of a wrist watch is, is the wrist a wrist? So forget about looking at thumbing and ah, I like it. That’s a good start. But the moment of truth is you grab that watch, you put it around your wrist, you look at yourself and see is it me or is it not?

00:30:46 [Speaker Changed] So how do you have access to every longer watch? Yeah, there is. How do you decide what you’re gonna grab that day to wear? I,

00:30:54 [Speaker Changed] You know, this one because of, you know, chronograph, we’re in a car world. It’s the 1815, so that’s the more classical line. I’m a huge fan of chronographs and it doesn’t get any better than a Chronograph Raton. So you know that. And I, it’s admit, I think it works very nice with my tan color right now.

00:31:17 [Speaker Changed] So our last question. Tell us what’s next for Longa and Sona? What surprises are coming up down the road? What should we be looking for?

00:31:27 [Speaker Changed] I think it’s always good to look for, but if I now share secrets, there’s no surprise. And that’s the one thing people love surprises. But I can share with you as much as is, this is not the last surprise for this year.

00:31:44 [Speaker Changed] Oh, really? So the, the Saxon Finns not the last surprise of 2025. That’s

00:31:50 [Speaker Changed] What I should

00:31:50 [Speaker Changed] Fantastic. That was my conversation with Wilhelm Schmidt, CEO of Langan Zona at the Newport Oring concourse to Elegance. Extra special thanks to the team that came up to Newport to help film this. Alexis Noriega is my video producer. Sebastian Escobar is my videographer. Anna Luke is my producer. Sage Bauman is the head of podcast at Bloomberg. I’m Barry ols. You’ve been listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

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The Return of Cisco

 

 

I’ve never shared this story before, but since we are at a milestone, I might as well…

February 2000: I was working as a strategist for a brokerage firm. My buddy Anthony had an international clientele, all deeply invested in US tech companies. His biggest client was flying in from the Middle East for a combination New York City shopping trip/portfolio review.

His biggest position? Cisco (CSCO). Millions of shares worth 10s of millions of dollars…

I did not cover the company (I was not an analyst). But I had views on the networking and telecom sector; I believed everything in the “George Gilder Telecosm” was a disaster waiting to happen. Gilder’s (expensive) newsletter correctly identified budding technology trends, but also possessed awful timing. When his telecoms portfolio plummeted by about 90%, he had the nerve to actually say, “I don’t do price.” 1

But I digress.

Prepping for the meeting, I reached out to Paul Sagawa of Alliance Bernstein. In the 1990s, Sagawa was the axe on Cisco; for nearly two decades, he correctly identified the upside for the networking firm. But by 1999, Sagawa changed his tune. Cisco had become a giant market leader but was increasingly moving towards vendor financing. In the late 1980s, less than 5% of Cisco’s clients used the company’s own financing arm; a decade later, it was 90+%. “Buy our valuable cutting-edge technology, we only need your flimsy, VC-backed start-up to sign a promise to pay for it (eventually).

Sagawa correctly saw this as a budding disaster.

The market isn’t kind to stock bulls when they reverse course and turn bearish.2 Throughout 1999, he went from a stock analyst superstar to a persona non grata. His fall from grace was vindicated twelve months later, but before the deluge, he was somewhat of an outcast.

My firm was not even a Bernstein client; I took a chance and called the number listed on his most recent CSCO research. To my surprise, he not only answered the call but also took the time to explain the situation to me for an hour.  Sagawa provided the hard data and details for me to discuss the downside of Cisco with Anthony’s client, loaded with all the ammunition needed.

At the meeting, I started with the broadest overview: The stock was up ~3,700% since its IPO. The Sheik sat impassively as he took it all in. I drilled down into the details, the vendor financing, the changing technology landscape. I didn’t feel like I was making any headway, and didn’t want to badger him. The last thing I said was “You’ve made immense returns in this name, and we are years into this bull market; my best guess is there’s more downside risk than upside potential in the high-flying names – and Cisco is the poster child.

I’m not a good salesman; I gave it my best shot, but didn’t expect much. I said my thanks and left.

I was surprised a few months later when Anthony came into my office with a little thank-you gift for the effort. “The sheik sold half, he is thrilled with us.” At the time, Cisco had already fallen 35% on its way to dropping ~90%.

I had written about the Fortune Cisco cover repeatedly – in 2000, then again years later. It’s now a cautionary chapter in How Not to Invest.

 

Here we are, 25 years later, and CSCO has perked up. Quantum computing, AI, and Cybersecurity have the stock rallying 28.9% this year. It has not quite reached $80.06, the dotcom peak in March 2000, but it is finally above the level where that infamous cover story (“No matter how you cut it, you’ve got to own Cisco”) came out.

The key lesson is that media coverage – of any stock, asset class, or investment – should never be a substitute for your own thinking.

 

 

Source:
There’s Something About Cisco
By Andy Serwer, Irene Gashurov, Angela Key
FORTUNE Magazine, May 15, 2000

 

Previously:
2000: “No matter how you cut it, you’ve got to own Cisco” (May 15, 2023)

Can Anyone Catch Nokia? (October 26, 2022)

Why the Apple Store Will Fail (May 20, 2021)

Nobody Knows Nuthin’ (May 5, 2016)

How News Looks When Its Old (October 29, 2021)

Predictions and Forecasts

 

 

__________

1. “Most of the companies listed have lost at least 90 percent of their value over the past two years, if they’re even in business anymore.” –Wired

2. I experienced this firsthand with EMC…

 

~~~

I discuss the trouble with the CSCO cover in How Not to Invest: The ideas, numbers, and behaviors that destroy wealth―and how to avoid them.”

Its on sale at Amazon Cyber Monday Deal: $18.01

 

 

 

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10 Monday AM Reads

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads:

The $260 Billion Mom-and-Pop Funds Distorting the Credit Market: Popular with individual investors, fixed-maturity funds are hoovering up the debt of big companies, reducing borrowing costs but obscuring repayment risk. (Bloomberg)

Goodbye, Price Tags. Hello, Dynamic Pricing. Businesses increasingly are using algorithms to determine prices, and to rapidly adjust those prices throughout the day. This new technology is called dynamic pricing, and it’s poised to change the way businesses set and advertise their prices. Think of the ever-changing electronic signs at gas stations, but for everything. (New York Times) see also Gen X-ers Have Money to Spend. Why Are Retailers Ignoring Them? Three in four Americans ages 45 to 60 say they expect to overspend for the holidays. They’re “sort of like the glue within the consumer spectrum.” (New York Times)

Unpacking the Mechanics of Conduit Debt Financing: Understanding the pass-through financing model behind the AI infrastructure boom. (This Is Not Investment Advice)

Private Equity Firms Could Face More Litigation as They Push into Retail: TAMU’s William Magnuson and Oxford’s Ludovic Phalippou argue that misleading metrics and opaque fees pose “significant litigation risks when ordinary investors enter the picture.” (Institutional Investor)

Are the rich fleeing Mamdani’s Manhattan? Not according to the data. The reasons for the increase in sales can be attributed in large part to overall gains in the stock market, the expectations of big Wall Street bonuses and declining mortgage rates. (USA Today)

What Is a Tariff Shock? Insights from 150 years of Tariff Policy. What are the short-run effects of tariff shocks on macro aggregates? A careful review of the major changes in US tariff policy since 1870 shows no systematic relation between the state of the cycle and the direction of the tariff changes, as partisan differences on the effects and desirability of tariffs led to opposite policy responses to similar economic conditions. (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

Mapping the Sense of What’s Going On Inside: Scientists are learning how the brain knows what’s happening throughout the body, and how that process might go awry in some psychiatric disorders. (New York Times)

The Ultrarich Are Spending a Fortune to Live in Extreme Privacy: In Miami and elsewhere, the wealthy are moving in increasingly private spheres, shelling out big money to bypass the indignities of public life. (Wall Street Journal)

YouTube’s Right-Wing Stars Fuel Boom in Politically Charged Ads. The popularity of YouTube podcasts among conservatives is driving a boom in small businesses tailoring ads to their millions of listeners, paying hosts like Joe Rogan and Candace Owens to read out promotions in the hope that fans will place orders. The phenomenon has enriched both the hosts and YouTube, supporting further growth of the businesses using ideology to sell. (Bloomberg free) see also How Right-Wing Superstar Riley Gaines Built an Anti-Trans Empire: The swimmer tied a trans woman for fifth. The MAGA industrial complex took care of the rest. (Mother Jones)

Life in the Michigan-Ohio State rivalry borderlands, from beatosu to goblu: The legend of beatosu originated with a prank carried out by Peter Fletcher, a Michigan alumnus who served as chairman of the Michigan State Highway Commission in the 1970s. Fletcher was in charge of the state highway maps, which include a tiny strip of northern Ohio. At Fletcher’s direction, the highway commission’s 1978 maps included a fictional town called “goblu” near Toledo and another called “beatosu” in a rural part of Fulton County, Ohio. (New York Times)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Wilhelm Schmid, CEO of famed watchmaker A. Lange & Söhne, the Glashütte, German watchmaker, recorded live at the Audrain Newport Concours d’Elegance.

Bitcoin Disconnecting From Nasdaq

Source: Apollo

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10 Sunday Reads

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures:

Inside the DOGE Succession Drama Elon Musk Left Behind: What really happened when he logged out of Washington. (Politico)

They were looking for work — but found a scam instead: Innovative scammers are posting jobs that are nearly indistinguishable from legitimate listings, including on trusted websites like LinkedIn and ZipRecruiter. (NBC News) see also Americans With Four-Year Degrees Now Comprise a Record 25% of Unemployed Workers: Americans with four-year college degrees now comprise a record 25% of total unemployment, underscoring a sharp slowdown in white-collar hiring this year. (Bloomberg)

AI Meets Aggressive Accounting at Meta’s Gigantic New Data Center: Favorable treatment off the balance sheet hinges on some convenient assumptions. (Wall Street Journal)

What It Takes to Defeat the Leaf Blowers: To end the use of gas-powered blowers, advocates in one New Jersey town focused on public health and made their case directly to local elected leaders. (CityLab)

New X Games: Legitimate Groyper or Bangladeshi Bot? The ragebait in your timeline may be coming from abroad. (The Bulwark) see also On the Internet No One Knows You’re a “MAGA patriot” in Lagos: On X’s new location feature… (Agents of Influence)

The Ultrarich Are Spending a Fortune to Live in Extreme Privacy: In Miami and elsewhere, the wealthy are moving in increasingly private spheres, shelling out big money to bypass the indignities of public life. (Wall Street Journal)

Deportation Inc.: Cost to Deport One Person: The US government says it spends an average of $17,121 to deport a single person. One man’s journey through the process shows the price can be significantly higher. (BusinessWeek)

It’s the ‘most important fish in the sea.’ And it’s disappearing. If the menhaden decline continues, striped bass could be next to vanish.  (Washington Post) see also First, the frogs died. Then people got sick. An emerging area of research is uncovering surprising links between nature and human health. (Washington Post)

Recycling Lead for U.S. Car Batteries Is Poisoning People: This is what the auto industry wants people to see: sparkling factories turning reclaimed lead into batteries for Ford, Toyota, GM and the rest. But in Africa’s lead recycling capital, reality looks very different. Factories are poisoning people. We know because we tested them. (New York Times)

The Olivia Nuzzi and RFK Jr. Affair Is Messier Than We Ever Could Have Imagined: Inside the most important, and also least important, story of our time (The Ringer) see also We Are Not Amused: The Olivia Nuzzi Return is a Disgrace. Olivia Nuzzi Return is a Disgrace (Unpopular Front)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Wilhelm Schmid, CEO of famed watchmaker A. Lange & Söhne, the Glashütte, German watchmaker, recorded live at the Audrain Newport Concours d’Elegance.

 

More Americans are getting their power shut off, as unpaid bills pile up

Source: Washington Post

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~~~

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10 Weekend Reads

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish Blend coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads:

The 25 most powerful ideas of the 21st century (so far), picked by the world’s top thinkers: We asked the world’s foremost minds to highlight some of the game-changing scientific breakthroughs shaping our world since the year 2000. (BBC Science Focus Magazine)

Breaking Burry: Totally perverse unnatural massive market distortions: 1, Michael Burry: 0. One major headline today is that Michael Burry, of The Big Short fame, is shuttering his fund, Scion Capital. In his letter calling it quits, he wrote: “Sometimes, we see bubbles. Sometimes, there is something to do about it. Sometimes, the only winning move is not to play.” I’ve been around markets long enough to believe that short sellers are generally more objectively right than most investors. (QRT’s Fringe Finance)

Kicking Robots: Humanoids and the tech-­industry hype machine: Kicking robots is something of a pastime among roboticists. Although the activity generates anxiety for lay observers prone to worrying about the prospect of future retribution, it also happens to be an efficient method of testing a machine’s balance. (Harper’s Magazine)

How to Sound Like an Expert in Any AI Bubble Debate: There are 12 statistics, factoids, and studies that dominate every discussion about whether artificial intelligence is a bubble. Here’s a deep-dive into all 12 arguments. (Derek Thompson) see also Large Language Mistake: Cutting-edge research shows language is not the same as intelligence. The entire AI bubble is built on ignoring it. (The Verge)

The new politics of autism: Autism — a neurodevelopmental disability — has become a political issue. How did this happen?  As contentious claims over rising diagnoses get a presidential platform, Simon Baron-Cohen explains where talk of an ‘epidemic’ goes wrong — and why we need more recognition that autism comes in different forms. (Financial Times)

How to Fix a Typewriter and Your Life. “It’s like Zen,” Lundy says about those hours at the bench. “There are times when it is just very relaxing to be standing in front of the machine and slowly cleaning it, tweaking the adjustment so visually things start to really line up.” (New York Times)

America’s Polarization Has Become the World’s Side Hustle: The ‘psyops’ revealed by X are entirely the fault of the perverse incentives created by social media monetization programs. (404) see also Elon Musk’s Worthless, Poisoned Hall of Mirrors: How X blew up its own platform with a new location feature. (The Atlantic)

The Strange and Totally Real Plan to Blot Out the Sun and Reverse Global Warming: A 25-person startup is developing technology to block the sun and turn down the planet’s thermostat. The stakes are huge — and the company and its critics say regulations need to catch up. (Politico)

The realities of being a pop star, according to charli xcx. One of the main realities of being a pop star is that at a certain level, it’s really f*cking fun. You will also end up spending a lot of time inhabiting strange and soulless liminal spaces. (charli’s substack)

Stephen Colbert on the End of The Late Show: In an exclusive exit interview, the late-night host reflects on how he learned about the cancellation of The Late Show, how he plans to make the most of the rest of his time in the seat, and what he’ll do next. (GQ)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Wilhelm Schmid, CEO of famed watchmaker A. Lange & Söhne, the Glashütte, German watchmaker, recorded live at the Audrain Newport Concours d’Elegance.

Streamflation intensifies as Netflix, Disney+, et. al. continue raising prices

Source: Techspot

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~~~

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MiB: A. Lange & Söhne CEO Wilhelm Schmid

 

This week, I speak with A. Lange & Söhne CEO Wilhelm Schmid at the Audrain Newport Concours & Motor Week for a special edition of Masters in Business. Barry and Wilhelm compare watch and car design. They also discuss A. Lange & Söhne’s philosophy on watchmaking. In addition, they cover innovations in watch mechanics and watch collecting.

A. Lange & Sohne makes watches by hand, and Wilhelm discusses the production process. We also discuss the release of the new Saxonia Thin Onyx.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

 

 

 

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10 Black Friday Reads

My Shopmas morning reads:

10 European Sports Cars You Should Buy Used. There is an undeniable appeal to European sports cars that you can’t and won’t find anywhere else. We have assembled a list of the best used European sports cars you can buy from the last decade or so, at abpotu half price or less than new. Despite their cost, when you are behind the wheel of these select few European sports cars, you feel like you are driving the best the world has to offer. Hard to beat half-price! (Top Speed)

US Consumers Dial Back in Sign of Anxiety Heading Into Holidays: US consumers showed signs of fatigue leading up to the longest government shutdown, and their outlook has worsened ever since, sending a note of caution heading into the holiday-shopping season. (Bloomberg) see also The US economy’s 7 deadly signs: Parts of the America’s economy are already in deep trouble, and the weakness could drag the whole country into a recession. (Business Insider)

The Best Way to Do a Roth IRA Conversion Before Retirement: A one-time transfer outperforms an equal-installments method in most tax situations, research finds. (Wall Street Journal)

How to Never Be Stranded After a Canceled Flight Plus other travel tips from Away founder Jen Rubio, such as saving serious cash at duty-free, maximizing your in-flight amenity kit, and packing the one gadget to help you fall asleep quickly wherever your bed may be. (Bloomberg)

Personalized mRNA Vaccines Will Revolutionize Cancer Treatment—If Funding Cuts Don’t Doom Them: Vaccines based on mRNA can be tailored to target a cancer patient’s unique tumor mutations. But crumbling support for cancer and mRNA vaccine research has endangered this promising therapy. (Scientific American)

International Nationalism: As with fiber, we are in an unsettled period, with no obvious answer, and lots of chaotic, one-off gestures towards de-dollarization. For example, Ethiopia is re-valuing its foreign debt in Chinese renminbi. (Pluralistic)

How Louvre thieves exploited human psychology to avoid suspicion—and what it reveals about AI: For humans and AI, when something fits the category of “ordinary,” it slips from notice.  (The Conversation)

Reps. Thomas Massie and Ro Khanna’s months-long campaign to outmaneuver the White House on the Epstein files started with a text. Inside the effort to force Trump’s hand on Epstein. (Washington Post)

Winners of the 2025 Drone Photo Awards: Explore the Beauty of the World Above. (My Modern Met) see also 13 dizzying and dazzling images from 2025 Drone Photo Awards: A lone camel, a hungry polar bear, and a congregation of herons. (Popular Science)

How Mark Wahlberg Became The King Of Streaming: As theatrical releases decline, the 54-year-old actor has become the most bankable star on Netflix, Amazon and Apple—earning $20 million or more a movie—in a major paradigm shift of Hollywood economics. Inside the new A-Minus List. (Forbes)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Wilhelm Schmid, CEO of famed watchmaker A. Lange & Söhne, the Glashütte, German watchmaker, recorded live at the Audrain Newport Concours d’Elegance.

 

No sector is hurting worse than manufacturing, which continues to shed jobs at a rapid rate. The auto industry has swung from expansion under Biden to contraction under Trump

Source: Noahpinion

 

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At The Money: How to Use Narrative Information

 

 

At The Money: Ben Hunt on How to Use Narrative Information  (November 26, 2025)

Do fundamentals or narratives drive market valuations? That is the question so many are wrestling with in today’s 24/7 algo-based platforms and AI-driven mediascape.

Full transcript below.

~~~

About this week’s guest:

Ben Hunt is founder of Perscient, a firm that studies how narratives and stories shape markets, investing, and social behavior through the lens of information theory, game theory, and unstructured data analysis. His work analyzes the language, story arcs, and viral spread of explanations in media

For more info, see:

Persient

Personal Bio

Website: Epsilon Theory

Masters in Business (Coming soon!)

LinkedIn

Twitter

~~~

 

Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here, and in the MiB feed on Apple PodcastsYouTubeSpotify, and Bloomberg. And find the entire musical playlist of all the songs I have used on At the Money on Spotify

 

 

 

TRANSCRIPT:

INTRO: Too much information running through my brain, Too much information driving me insane

Investors have long been taught that fundamentals drive stock prices. Revenue, growth, and profits, as Benjamin Graham taught us in the short run. The market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it’s a weighing machine.

But what if it isn’t? What if narratives are driving market valuations? I’m Barry Ritholtz, and on today’s edition of At The Money, we’re gonna discuss how to identify when market narratives overtake fundamentals.

To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your portfolio, let’s bring in Ben Hunt of Perscient. Ben’s firm studies, narratives, and the stories that shape markets investing and social behavior through the lens of information theory. So Ben, let’s start with a definition.

Barry Ritholtz: How do you define a narrative in the context of markets and investing?

Ben Hunt: Let me define it.

So it’s, it’s a simple definition. A narrative is an answer to the question why. Why did the market go up today? Why should you buy this stock? Why should you sell this stock? Why should you vote for this person? Any answer to the question, why is a narrative?

Barry Ritholtz: How do you distinguish between something like data, which I arguably comes with a storyline attached to it and just a straight up, Hey, Bitcoin is millennium or digital gold?

Ben Hunt: How do you define the difference between this, I guess this stock is cheap with a PE of nine is a narrative. Yeah. Well, why is, why is a PE of nine cheap? Or why is a PE of three cheap or 15 cheap? These are all stories, Barry. Any, any, any valuation, any multiple, any meaning that you attach to numbers?

It’s a story. It’s a, it’s a, it’s an answer to the question. Why? Why do I call it cheap? Why do I think you should buy it? Why is this interesting? Those are all why questions and the answer. Are all narratives.

Barry Ritholtz: How do you identify any particular narrative that may be driving a particular stock or asset class or the overall market? What, what tools do do you use to help discern that?

Ben Hunt: Lemme start by saying what I don’t care about. So what I don’t care about is truth or accuracy. I mean, it sounds crazy, but

Barry Ritholtz: Not at all. ’cause you’re trying to figure out what the crowd believes. Yeah. Whether it’s true or not. Well, if it affects their behavior, it matters.

Ben Hunt: I’ve given up on trying to figure out what reality is. What I’m trying to figure out is how is reality being presented? How is it being presented to us? So what I’m looking for are elements of presentation. I’m looking for word choice. I’m looking for how loud is it being presented to you, how frequently it’s being presented to you.

But most of all, I’m looking for a concept that you talk about in network math, and it’s called density. I’m looking for how the language is connected to other words. In fact, those are the, the measurements you use in network math. Those are where they, we talk about betweenness, we talk about connectedness and centrality. Those are the measurements, because I’m looking at the presentation, not at the reality.

Barry Ritholtz: So how do you measure density? You, you hinted at some of it. How loud it is, how repetitive it is. How do you tell when a specific narrative is beginning to exert influence over prices?

Ben Hunt:  Bob Schiller wrote a pretty good book, a a couple years back called “Narrative Economics,” and the takeaway from that book is that you should think about and understand narratives in exactly the same way.

You think about and you understand disease, I mean, you, you use the same measurements. You remember when we were talking about COVID, it was or R-not? How, how fast does it spread? How quickly does it spread? What is the medium in which it can spread most easily? It’s exactly the same thing here, it’s exactly the same thing.

We’re really using exactly the same math. As you would use to try to understand epidemiology and the spread of a virus. So what we’re looking at though, instead of the atmosphere or wastewater, we’re looking at the words. We’re looking at all the words that are out there in terms of text of what’s being written, what’s being said.

This is all unstructured data, and we’re looking for the presence of certain ideas, clusters of words that spread through that medium of media in exactly the same way that a virus spreads through the air or through the water. If you’re a financial advisor or you’re a market person of any sort, and somebody comes up, why’d the market go up today?

And you could say, well. There are a hundred different reasons, but basically it was just variance. You know? It’s just, it’s just, it’s just

Barry Ritholtz: A random walk. People. Hate that answer, by the way.

Ben Hunt: People hate that answer ’cause it’s a crappy story. It’s a story. It may be true, but it’s not compelling. Exactly. It’s not truthy. Right. It doesn’t, it doesn’t connect with you. It’s like, well that’s disappointing. I, I want a story so. The stories that are basically there to fill the time. Uh, and these are, these are typically examples where I call ’em descriptive narratives.

They’re, they’re answering the question why, but they’re describing why something happened.

Barry Ritholtz: Always after the fact. Never in advance.

Ben Hunt: Always after the fact. That’s exactly right, Barry. So what you’ll find is that, I don’t know, it’s earning season and who comes out first with earnings. Financials, right. Citi and Goldman Sachs, whoever, they’ll report some good earnings. The stocks will go up and afterwards, Cramer and everyone else has gotta tell you why.  And they’ll say, “Oh, I’m bullish on financials.” And they’ll give you a reason.

And the half life for that sort of narrative, it’s a week or two.

You wanna do with that? Honestly, is you wanna fade it. You wanna look for that to appear in your Bloomberg email in the morning saying, oh, market experts bullish on financials because blah, blah, blah. And when that drum beating gets pretty loud when it’s appearing in your morning email. I wanna fade it.

You don’t wanna press it, you wanna fade it because this is, this is just the, the ordinary business of Wall Street. You’ve gotta have an answer to why, it’s almost usually just variance or some combination of idiosyncratic stuff. But you’ve gotta come up with some blanket “Why?” And if that gets a lot of play, I want to go the other way.

There’s another type of narrative though, where I want to press it. That’s what we call prescriptive narratives. It’s not saying, “Oh, the Fed is dovish.” It’s saying, you know, Muhammad Elarian will come out, or, uh, I don’t know. Trump will come out and say, “The Fed should be dovish.”

You see the difference? It’s not, it’s not describing what’s already happened. It’s trying to. Lay the framework for what should happen.

Barry Ritholtz: So let’s delve into that. What sort of tools are you using to identify these narratives? Be they descriptive or prescriptive? How, how much lead time do you get, uh, to analyze, you know, this giant corpus of noise and commentary and data that is produced every single day?

Ben Hunt: This is what good traders, honestly  and investors have always done. They’ve, they’ve, they’ve always made these sort of assessments of the news and the stories that are happening. So this, what we’re trying to do is we’re trying to externalize what good traders, and I’ll call it short-term investors, have always done, they’ve always internalized this so.

Anybody can do this. You start looking for the words that are trying to prescribe versus describe, uh, that’ll you, you can, you can pick this up in whatever you do. What we are able to do though today is because there’s now big data is because there’s big compute, is we can read everything. Humans we’re all limited in what we can read, what we can pay attention to in our little corner of the world.

What’s possible today is to read everything and to analyze exactly this sort of word choice.

Barry Ritholtz: What sort of output do you get from your “Big Compute” that’s scraping everything sifting through all the language; does it identify specific words? Does it identify themes? I’m assuming artificial intelligence and big data analytics is a key part of this. What does the output look like to you?

Ben Hunt: Well, lemme start with where it starts, because it’s not that the output comes from what you. Put into it and what you wanna put into it, and this has to be human generated, are, well, what are the ideas, what are the narratives that I care about?

Here’s why that’s important: Let’s say you’re a value investor, you’ve got a vision, you know, you’ve got a view on a stock and like all value investors, you think the market has not recognized the story about this stock that I think is really important.

So what you’re looking for is not, how loud is that story right now? That story is dormant. You’re looking for that story to start being told. So you can’t start this from asking AI, “Hey, AI, what are the prominent stories right now?” Because it can only tell you what’s being spread right then and there.

The way to really make money with narratives, is to say what narrative is dormant today, I wanna see when it starts to get discovered.

Its that discovery phase when the market quote unquote, wakes up to a story that you’ve been looking for the market to wake up to. That’s how I find you can most reliably make money from narrative investing.

Barry Ritholtz: I get the sense we’re still in the early days of narrative investing as a key strategy, at least in terms of using AI and big data. What do you see developing in this space? What’s the narrative about narrative investing?

Ben Hunt: This is an old idea. So if you, if you go back and kinda look at your Wall Street history, or if you talk to kind of traitors today, what they’re always looking at is the news that comes along and they’re trying to say, Hey, do I fade that? You know, is that story worn out? Is it, is, is that, is it topping over or does this story have legs?

Is this the start of, its spread like a virus? It’s an old idea, what’s possible today is to quantify it. What’s possible today is to externalize what good traders have internalized in the past. It’s not that it’s, inventing cold fusion or really doing anything that’s new in the world. What it is able to do is to make that sort of analysis, to look at not what reality is, but how reality is being presented and make it available over a much wider scope, not over just that little area that the Good Trader really knows a lot about and make it available over a lot more publications and things that are being written because humans can’t read everything really.

I think it’s a way of, I hate to call it democratizing investing. I really hate that idea. But it really is a notion of creating a new instrument so every investor can understand, well, what are the stories that are being told about the world today?

Barry Ritholtz: To wrap up, technology has enabled us to read much more than we were capable of reading as individuals. In fact, the machines can read everything and we can use those machines to identify dormant narratives that might lead to increases in either a particular stock or asset class or market. Fair statement?

Ben Hunt: Very fair. What you’re looking for is what’s new, what’s changed, because when the narrative changes, that changes behavior.

Barry Ritholtz: Fascinating stuff. I’m Barry Ritholtz. This is Bloomberg’s At the Money.

 

OUTRO:

Too much information running through my brain
Too much information driving me insane
Too much information running through my brain
Too much information driving me insane

~~~

Find our entire music playlist for At the Money on Spotify.

 

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10 Thanksgiving Day Reads

My morning LGA-ORD/turkey day reads:

This Year’s Thanksgiving Surprise: Half of the Guests Are Stoned: What started as a secret trip to smoke pot before dinner has mushroomed into a full-blown commercial holiday. Behold the ‘cousin walk.’ (Wall Street Journal)

Crypto Crash Ruins Thanksgiving for Retail Traders Once Again Bitcoin enthusiasts are bracing for some awkward questions this holiday season. (Bloomberg)

What Is Deinfluencing? Unpacking TikTok’s Unlikeliest Shopping Trend: Over this past year, however, more and more people began to think twice before buying what influencers were selling. Just note the hashtag #Deinfluencing, which now has over a billion views on TikTok. The user-led intervention, which sees an army of self-described deinfluencers discouraging their audiences from buying into overhyped stuff, represents a notable departure from the usual calls to “swipe up” and “buy now.” (Vogue)

AI Slop Recipes Are Taking Over the Internet — And Thanksgiving Dinner: Food bloggers see traffic dip as home cooks turn to AI, inspired by impossible pictures. (Bloomberg free)

Grim retail sales data fuels concerns about health of US economy: Consumer confidence drops to second-lowest level since pandemic as inflation lingers. (Financial Times) see also Late Car Payments Are Piling Up at Record Levels as More Drivers Face Delinquency: A record share of subprime borrowers are delinquent on car payments, according to new data from Fitch Ratings in a series that dates back to the ’90s. (Money)

Streamflation intensifies as Netflix, Disney+, and others continue raising prices; Streaming costs keep climbing as platforms chase profit. The economics of streaming are shifting from expansion to monetization. Nearly every major platform – from Netflix to HBO Max and Apple TV – has raised its prices over the past year, marking one of the sharpest rounds of increases since the subscription model upended cable television. (Techspot)

Brain has five ‘eras’, scientists say – with adult mode not starting until early 30s” Study suggests human brain development has four pivotal ‘turning points’ at around the ages of nine, 32, 66 and 83. (The Guardian)

They retired from the government. Now they’re back, protecting forests Trump abandoned. Since the start of the year, the Forest Service has lost nearly 6,000 staffers through firings, resignations and retirements encouraged by the Trump administration, according to internal figures obtained by The Washington Post. By summer, some of the agency’s regions were missing three-quarters of their trail and recreation staff — and some forests and districts had none at all. (Washington Post)

The COVID political backlash disappeared: Turns out the pandemic didn’t break the Democratic Party. (The Argument)

Hollywood Is Reeling—and These Movies Have Never Been So Popular: The PG rating has become the king of the box office. The entertainment business now relies on kids dragging their parents to theaters. (Wall Street Journal)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Wilhelm Schmid, CEO of famed watchmaker A. Lange & Söhne, the Glashütte, German watchmaker, recorded live at the Audrain Newport Concours d’Elegance.

 

As Holidays Approach, There’s Little Cheer for Consumers

Source: Bloomberg

 

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10 Datapoints for Thanksgiving

It’s that time of year again when families gather to feast on bountiful harvests and to give thanks for all of our blessings.

This year, skip the “Vibes” and instead focus on market data. Don’t lose sight of nuances and shades of grey; they don’t make for great memes, but they do lead to a better understanding of what’s going on.

Here are ten nuanced, slightly contrarian ideas for you to chew over:

1. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: Perhaps we are in the late stages of an AI-driven bubble; we could just as easily be in a once-in-a-generation transformational technology boom that will drive both the economy and the stock market higher for years to come.

Too many people fail to recognize how challenging it is to identify these generational market turning points in real time.

My favorite takes on AI have come from Derek Thompson and Timothy Lee, who looked into the 12 main arguments Pro & Con, and Benjamin Riley, who aims to “help people understand human cognition and artificial intelligence.”

2. INFLATION: Everything costs more this year — except for the Turkey.

The largest fiscal stimulus since World War 2 led to the largest inflation surge since the 1970s. The rate of price increases rose by 9% (peaking June 2022) before falling back to 3% nearly as quickly. There were numerous causes of inflation, but the top of the list was the pandemic supply issues and the huge fiscal stimulus.

People confuse the rate of price change with prices. We had high inflation; today, we have low(ish) inflation, but we still retain higher prices. Everything is much more expensive today, even with inflation way down. Low Inflation and High Prices are not mutually exclusive.

CPI Inflation is in the 2-3% range today, but it is ticking upwards, creating difficulties for those on the FOMC who want to cut rates.

3. SUPPLY & DEMAND: We may not have structural inflation as we did in the 1970s, but we do have a structural imbalance in supply and demand of many critical goods and services.

A few significant examples:

Single-family homes Used cars Skilled labor Rare Earth minerals Renewable energy

Until supply catches up with demand, those prices will remain high. And that is before we get to health care and education costs.

4. ENERGY: The inflation of the 1970s was structural, caused in large part by the Arab Oil Embargo. In contrast, the United States is a net energy exporter today. In the 1970s, energy accounted for about 10% of the average household budget; the Chicago Fed found it peaked at nearly 14% in the early 1980s.

Household energy costs are about half of those levels today (5-6%), even as energy consumption has increased significantly. Every power-hungry device, from automobiles to HVAC systems to appliances, is now many times more efficient than in the past.

The wildcard is increased demand from power-hungry data centers…

5. CRYPTO CRASH: Given the embrace of crypto by the President (and POTUS’s family), much of Bitcoin 2025 gains can be attributed to this administration’s policies. We should not be surprised by the correlation between the President’s political fortunes / approval ratings, and the price of Bitcoin.

The President has had a terrible month; from the election thumping to the fallout with MTG to losing multiple legal cases (Tariffs at SCOTUS, Comey / James case dismissals), it’s no surprise that Bitcoin has suffered a 30% crash this month as well:

6. TARIFFS: Are fascinating: They cause temporary inflation spikes and permanent higher prices. There is no getting around it – any additional tax on imported goods is a source of increased prices. And as we have seen before, even domestic producers will raise prices (Greedflation) if they believe consumers won’t balk.

The good news: If the Supreme Court arguments were anything to go on, many of the Tariffs are likely to get struck down.

7. RATE CUTS: You can make a solid case either way – inflation remains stubborn at (or over) 3%, but there are signs of labor market softness, slowing consumer sales, and mediocre sentiment.

Expectations had fallen to a ~20% chance of a rate cut – until yesterday’s poor data. Now, we are back to an 80% chance of a December cut. Beyond that is anyone’s guess…

8. BUBBLES: By definition, it takes a crowd to create a bubble. Can you recall the public, the media, or even the Fed identifying a bubble on a timely basis? (Me neither).

Asked differently, can investors rationally believe that prices are not entirely irrational? If your answer is yes, then it’s likely not a bubble.

Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the AI bubble debate is Alphabet (GOOGL) passing Nvidia (NVDA) YTD returns:

9. RECESSION: People hate inflation, but the alternative was a deep and long-lasting pandemic recession. We avoided a 10-12% unemployment rate, but the cost was 9% inflation.

Consider the alternative, had both the Trump and Biden admins not cranked up the fiscal spend, people would have been furious at the failure to do anything1. It’s a Lose/Lose; whatever choice got made, half the population would have been furious.

As angry as people are over high prices, they would have been even angrier at a do-nothing government letting an ugly recession take hold.

10. VALUATIONS: The Mag 7 remains pricey, even as Nvidia slides 13% off its highs. Its expensive, but it also generates $57 billion in quarterly revenues! Some sectors are extremely overpriced, others are more reasonable. The S&P 493 — S&P 500 minus the Magnificent 7 — is at 20.7 P/E. Pricey, but not ridiculous.

Nuance is your friend.

Safe travels!

 

Previously:
The Muted Impact of Tariffs on Inflation So Far (July 17, 2025)

Make Thanksgiving Great Again! (November 23, 2023)

Revisiting Greedflation (November 16, 2023)

Who Is to Blame for Inflation, 1-15 (June 28, 2022)

Miscalculated Housing Demand (July 29, 2021)

How to Talk to a Fox News Viewer (November 22, 2018)

How Everybody Miscalculated Housing Demand (July 29, 2021)

 

 

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