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The Populist Pub is Open. Let's Talk Worst Case Scenarios!

 

Petit Julien welcomes you back to the Populist Pub.  

Nearly 18 months into this recession, skepticism is growing about what "recovery" might look like. We hear talk of "green shoots" in an economy that is being remade into another bubble economy, this time based on "government finance". Is it really "stimulating" to the real economy to inject massive amounts of liquidity into the financial system? This unprecedented intervention includes Federal Reserve Credit, Treasury borrowings, agency debt, mortgage-backed securities issued by GSEs, as well as increased involvement of the FDIC. The latest estimates of the size of this bubble is around $14 Trillion which, amazingly, dwarfs the mortgage finance bubble it replaces. The question many analysts ask is whether the FED will be able to withdraw liquidity from the system in the proper amounts and at the right time in order to avert the inevitable inflation when it begins. Ironically, the FED will then find itself in the familiar position of being trapped by the risk of bursting another historic bubble!

China cancels America's credit card

The public didn't pay much attention to this comment by Congressman Mark Kirk last week, but they should have.

"It would appear, quietly and with deference and politeness, that China has canceled America's credit card," Kirk told the Committee of 100, a Chinese-American group.

"I'm not sure too many people on Capitol Hill realize that this is now happening," he said.

It's hard to believe when you consider that China has bought over $1 Trillion of our debt, and the largest single-year purchase was 2008.

But now it appears that Mark Kirk knew what he was talking about.

"There will come a time where the lack of Chinese participation may have a significant impact," Kirk said.

Greetings from the Holy Land

A wandering prophet, despised by all, traveling the land and preeching heresy at the gates of towns and villages.

Alas, the land has been plagued this last 25 years with Novus Liberismus.The conquering hordes of the western empire have taken control of the people's minds and souls and devasted our communities.  The land of Moses, Jesus, Mohamad and Atheistus have been swept by NL.

I have risen, on my own behalf, to hold our Alamo and bring power to the people once again.

Friday Movie Night - Slave Economics Edition

 It's Friday Night! Party Time!   Time to relax, put your feet up on the couch, lay back, and watch some detailed videos on economic policy!

One of the things so often overlooked in America today is not too long ago, the ultimate productive labor unit was the enslaved one. Below is a documentary on China labor and two American slave history documentaries with a focus on slavery economics.

 

Santa's Workshop

 

Everything You Ever Wanted to Know about National Health Plans ….and maybe more - Japan

JAPAN

One thing I thought about when researching Japan's plan was the consideration of tradition and society.  As a professor once said, it is easier to get 100 Japanese to wear the same clothing than it is to get two Americans to decide on which pizza to buy.  In Japan families will help with in hospital nursing.  How willing would American's be to help with nursing?

Unemployment and Recovery

The BLS reported this morning that in April the U3 unemployment rate increased to 8.9%. This is a .4% increase from March, and is what I expected.

This is one of those cases where "less awful" actually ought to give rise to some hope. Before Black September, when we had a shallow recession confined to Wall Street and housing-related trades, the worst month for payroll loss was -175,000. By November the loss was -597,000, and from December through March losses were clustered near -700,000 a month!.

April's payroll loss of -539,000 is ~140,000 less than the last 4 months. If this new trend continues for another 3 months, payroll losses will vanish and the economy might actually begin to add jobs by August.

The Great Strike

"Terrors Reign, The Streets of Chicago Given Over to Howling Mobs of Thieves and Cutthroats."
-Chicago Times headline, 1877

130 years ago America was a different place. Labor unions were small in number and relatively powerless, the federal government was immensely corrupt, and the presidential election had just been openly rigged.
Hmmm. OK. Maybe America wasn't different from today's world after all. But it was a great deal different from the America of most of that 130 years.

Everything You Ever Wanted to Know about National Health Plans ….and maybe more - Germany

Germany

"German Health System Not Quite in Intensive Care " - Going by media reports and public opinion in Germany, one might think the country's health care system is sclerotic and near collapse. But international comparisons and health-care experts paint a different picture.

In a 2000 report conducted by the World Health Organization (WHO) on global health care, Germany ranked 25th out of 191 countries based on a cost-effectiveness ratio, coming in before the USA (37) and Canada (30). In another study, carried out by the Frank Beske Institute for Health System Research in 2005, Germany came in first among 14 industrial countries regarding health-care services available to the insured.

Its time to kill off the zombies before they engulf us all.

 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Bank of America has been deemed to need an additional $34 billion in capital, according to the results of a government stress test, a source familiar with the results said on Tuesday.

A Bank of America spokesman declined comment.

The amount is far higher than published reports had speculated the largest bank might need. It is certain to increase the pressure on Chief Executive Kenneth Lewis, whom shareholders ousted as chairman last week.

BofA to need $34 billion in capital: source | Reuters

Everything You Ever Wanted to Know about National Health Plans ….and maybe more - France

France

"In the movie Sicko, Moore lumps France in with the socialized systems of Britain, Canada, and Cuba. In fact, the French system is similar enough to the U.S. model that reforms based on France's experience might work in America. That's not to say the French have solved all health-care riddles. Like every other nation, France is wrestling with runaway health-care inflation. That has led to some hefty tax hikes, and France is now considering U.S.-style health-maintenance organization (HMO) tactics to rein in costs.

Still, some 65% of French citizens express satisfaction with their system, compared with 40% of U.S. residents. And France spends just 10.7% of its gross domestic product on health care, while the U.S. lays out 16%, more than any other nation."

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