In stunning news, the BLS reported this morning that weekly jobless claims fell 50,000 to 565,000.
At their peak in April, weekly jobless claims were 659,000. This is almost 100,000 less claims than then. Note that in previous years the July 4 holiday has not affected these seasonally adjusted numbers, so appears not to be an issue.
Even during the booming 1990s, weekly jobless claims averaged about 300,000-325,000 a week, so this week's figure represents an ~30% improvement.
This number is consistent with the bottom of the recession being called by the NBER right now.
I've been crunching numbers on this exact point, I will post more later when I get the chance (maybe tonight or tomorrow morning).
Consider this a Jack and the Beanstalk sized green shoot.