The U.S. November 2012 monthly trade deficit increased by 15.85%. This is an increase of $6.667 billion to give a monthly trade deficit of $48.731 billion. November's U.S. exports increased $1.744 billion or 0.96%. Imports soared by $8.410 billion which is a 3.8% increase from last month. The three month moving average gives a trade deficit of $43.691 billion and a increase of $2.05 billion.
Q3 2012 real GDP shows 3.1% annualized growth, revised from 2.7% in the second estimate. Consumer spending increased more than previously estimated, exports were greater and imports were much less. Q2 GDP was 1.25% in actuality, 1.3% is a rounded figure.
The U.S. October 2012 monthly trade deficit increased by 4.9%, $1.963 billion to $42.24 billion. The trade deficit with China hit an all time monthly record of -$29.466 billion.
Q3 2012 real GDP shows 2.7% annualized growth, revised from 2.0% in the advance report. There was a significant upward revision to inventories, yet consumer spending was revised down. Exports were revised up as trade statistics became more complete. Q2 GDP was 1.25%.
The U.S. September 2012 monthly trade deficit declined by -5.1%, or -$2.25 billion. August's trade deficit was revised down by -$427 million, which gives a 3.1% monthly increase instead of the originally reported 4.1%. While the press touts the lowest monthly trade deficit since December 2010, the reality is September gives the second largest China trade deficit in history.
The U.S. August 2012 monthly trade deficit increased 4.1%, or $1.75 billion. July's trade deficit was revised upward by $462 million, which gives a 1.4% monthly increase for July's trade deficit instead of the reported no change. For August, exports decreased by -$1.91 billion, or -1.0%. Imports declined by -$845 million, or -0.4%.
Q2 2012 real GDP now shows 1.25% annualized growth after revisions. The advance second quarter GDP estimate was 1.5%, whereas the second revision reported 1.7% GDP growth. The BEA rounds their final GDP numbers, so the actual GDP reported was 1.3%. When we're grabbing economic crumbs, 0.05 percentage points makes a difference.
What the Q2 GDP third estimate shows is a barely breathing economy. Businesses shed inventories, consumers spent way less, a dramatic swing from the Q2 GDP advance report and investment generally is down from the 1st quarter. Shedding inventories can be a recession indicator. Durable goods spending literally vanished in Q2, also a recession indicator. The drought showed up in Q2 GDP, negatively impacting farm inventories and potentially other GDP components indirectly.
The U.S. international transactions release is an odd duck. The current account is kind of like an economic income statement of the U.S. vs. the rest of the world. The current account deficit was $117.4 billion for Q2 2012, a 12.1% decline from Q1's current account deficit of $133.6 billion.
The U.S. July 2012 monthly trade deficit was essentially unchanged, and increased 0.25%, or $103 million, from June to $42.002 billion. Exports decreased $1.81 billion, or -0.98%. Imports declined $1.81 billion, or -0.80%. June's trade deficit was revised from $42.924 billion to $41.899 billion.
Recent comments