Q1 2013 real GDP was revised downward slightly to 2.4% from 2.5%.   This is still an improvement, from the fourth quarter 0.4% GDP showing a stagnant economy.   Consumer spending was the biggest improvement while increased imports posed a major economic drag.  Government spending declines continue to be an economic damper.  The revision shows more consumer spending than originally reported, less investment, less imports, less exports and government expenditures were less than previously estimated.  Generally speaking a 2.4% GDP implies moderate economic growth, yet overall real demand in the economy is still fairly weak.

Q4 2012 real GDP was revised upward by 0.3 percentage points to 0.4% after the second revision.   While an improvement, gross domestic product results still imply a stagnant economy in the 4th quarter.   Government spending declines were the drag on the economy and sucked out -1.41 percentage points from 4th quarter real gross domestic product growth.  Federal defense spending alone declined  22.1% from Q3.   Nonresidential fixed investment was revised higher and businesses purchased equipment and software.  Private inventory changes hacked off -1.52 percentage points from Q4 real GDP as businesses shed their inventories.   Even without inventories in the economic growth mix,  the economy is still suffering from weakness in demand.

The U.S. December 2012 monthly trade deficit imploded by -20.7% to $38.54 billion.  This is the lowest monthly trade deficit since January 2010 when global trade was still affected by the recession.  We estimate Q4 GDP will be revised significantly upward as a result.

Q3 2012 real GDP shows 3.1% annualized growth, revised from 2.7% in the second estimate. Consumer spending increased more than previously estimated, exports were greater and imports were much less. Q2 GDP was 1.25% in actuality, 1.3% is a rounded figure.