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What Recovery? Green Shoots turning into Brown Weeds

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Some Green Shoots supporters have declared that the bottom is in. They point towards various short-term trends, and if you don't look too close, it appears to support their cause.
The Green Shoots supporters accuse the Brown Weeds advocates of using charts that are too long, and thus miss the recent movements.

Therefore I've decided to dig up my own charts, looking at just the last month.

More on the Sovereign States Banking Solution - North Dakota Shows the Way

The only State in the Union chartered to be the primary depositor and guarantor of the deposits of its own Bank is North Dakota. All state funds are deposited into this bank (by law) and its deposit base becomes the capital reserve from which to create credit.

Our system of hopelessly insolvent mega banks across the nation has leveraged, gambled and lost it all in the insane derivatives casino. Despite more than six months of massive taxpayer bailouts, credit markets are still frozen, the economy continues to collapse and 2.3 million more Americans have lost their jobs since Obama took office.

But North Dakota’s GNP has grown 56%, personal income has grown 43%, and wages have grown 34%. The state not only has no funding issues, but this year it actually has a budget surplus of $1.2 billion, the largest it has ever had.

OIl, consumer spending, and the Recession

Back in April, I crunched retail and oil price numbers and concluded that the price of oil was responsible for over half of the changes in real retail spending in the last two years. As the price of oil continued to shoot higher, on June 2, after examining the role of China's hoarding in its burgeoning strategic oil reserve, and the hoarding going on at sea by oil companies and speculators, I wrote that

Boston Fed: Obama's efforts toward housing "misdirected"

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It isn't hard to find news articles claiming that the bottom in housing is in.

Harney notes that “even the most bearish researchers” are saying that home prices are almost at bottom

The problem is when you look at the actual numbers they show something entirely different. For instance, just today, the PMI Mortgage Insurance Company predicts that housing prices will continue to fall for the next two years. These guys aren't exactly a group that likes to spread doom and gloom.

So who is right? Well, let's take a look at today's news.

What Recovery? Consumers and Jobs

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I could hardly believe it when I saw this poll come out.

It's a testament to effective public relations that a majority of people believe that they will be better off next summer than they are right now. If perception was all that mattered then the mission of fixing the economy has already been accomplished.

Unfortunately for all of us, actual facts mean more than managing perception. Just ask Baghdad Bob.
With that in mind, let's look at those pesky inconvenient facts.

Sunday Morning Comics - Michael Jackson Free Zone Edition

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Brought to you by the Michael Jackson CNN Network - Breaking News!   The economic stimulus of Michael Jackson music sales has added 1% to the GDP (and boosted our ratings 4x).
Cup O' Joe

 

Good Morning! Rise and Shine! Get that Cup O' Joe...
break out the O.J....hang out with the pooch...time to check out the Funnies!

 

The State of the Economy, Independence Day 2009 (IV.)

Part I of this series can be found here.

Parts II and III of this series can be read at The Bonddad Blog.

IV. The Federal Government must intervene to Rescue the States, in a morally responsible way

By far, the biggest threat to a bottom being put in to this Recession, is the continuing drumbeat of new layoffs. Thursday's June employment figures over - 450,000 and new jobless claims that have stubbornly, week after week, remained above 600,000, put the kibosh on any idea that the bottom is already here. We simply cannot stand 600,000 people putting in for jobless benefits, week after week after week. And the source of the continuing drumbeat of jobs lost appears to be coming more from anywhere else from the location of what Paul Krugman has called the "50 little Hoovers", i.e., the state (and municipal) governments, which are obliged to balance their budgets and so must throw employees out of work and cut back on spending projects, exactly when they are needed most.

The State of the Economy, Independence Day 2009 (I.)

ABC News reported an interview with with Paul Krugman last week his opinions that:

"I would not be surprised if the official end of the U.S. recession ends up being, in retrospect, dated sometime this summer," he said June 8 during a lecture in London.

However, Krugman argues people didn't listen to his entire speech, which included dire predictions about lingering unemployment. "There's a big difference between the end of a recession, which is really only when some things start to turn up, and the return to prosperity," Krugman told ABC News. "I think what people don't get is the difference between the end of a recession in a technical sense and actual recovery, which matters to people."

In my opinion, Krugman is exactly correct. In this four-part "Big Picture" look at the economy as of Independence Day 2009, I will argue that:

Friday Movie Night - Big Bucks, Big Pharma Edition

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It's Friday Night! Party Time!   Time to relax, put your feet up on the couch, lay back, and watch some detailed videos on economic policy!

 

Since now all news is the Michael Jackson Channel plus health care is assuredly being shaped by insurance company lobbyists, a vein attempt to tie in is this weeks theme. I'm sure if big pharma could figure out a way to market Propofol right now, they would.

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