The shock of "Black September", at least on consumer non-durable spending, might be wearing off somewhat. Like Freddy Kreuger, Michael Myers, or Jason Voorhees, it appears that American consumer simply refuses to stay dead, but instead is rising, zombie-like, from the grave to spend another day.
Private retail service Shoppertrak issues weekly bulletins about foot traffic and sales in the nation's malls. While not a perfect indicator, it is both more frequent and also a separate source to compare with the official data. In the past it has provided early indications of the holding up -- or not -- of the consumer. For example, by the end of September it had published a special note on the collapse of foot traffic that month, the first indication of the appearance of the consumer collapse of "Black September."
We all know by now that the economy is cliff-diving. Many bloggers can ably describe the dive in progress. One of the distinguishing things I have been trying to do over the last year is to look ahead to determine, "Where is the bottom of the cliff, and When do we get there?" Unlike most recessions, which might be described as bungee-jumps, where you get to the bottom and rebound quickly, this recession heralds a secular change, as housing and financial bubbles burst. In those circumstances, typically there is a crash or cliff-diving stage (also described by Russ Winter as the "guillotine" phase) followed by a slower, more sideways, grinding stage (described by Russ Winter as the "sandpaper" stage). Or, as I've described it many times, a Slow Motion Bust.
A more visual depiction of such crashes is to liken them to going over the American falls. First there is the free-fall, then the bouncing to the bottom of the rubble. For example, in my last blog, I noted how new home sales almost had to be nearing the bottom of the cliff. Or, visually:
The government bailout of failed financial institutions locks you into years of debt payments in behalf of the large private banks, debts that you did not create.
By all appearances, it also locks the country into years of a weak economy. That means unemployment, underemployment, and more suffering for those willing to work, but left out of the job market. It means lowered opportunities for those who do work and troubles for dependants and indigents. Vital national priorities including affordable health care and the massive effort required to save everyone form calamitous environmental catastrophes are now on hold or under funded.
Sponsored by The Debt Collector's Job Creation Program - Our Economy is 70% shopping. To qualify, for retraining, shop with your favorite failed bank credit card and in a few months new debt collection jobs will be created!
Good Morning! Rise and Shine! Get that Cup O' Joe...
break out the O.J....hang out with the pooch...time to check out the Funnies!
Alphabet soup mnemonics like CDO, CDO2, CDO3, CDS, SIV, LCDS, CFD, plain zone people out and we stop paying attention. Such discussion is the brain's Ambien. Global finance a maze of highfalutin sounding words which really mean gambling.
On November 22, 1909, thousands of New York shirtwaist textile workers met at the Cooper Union building to meet with the International Ladies Garment Workers Union’s Local 25 leaders to discuss working conditions and wages. Like most organizations in those days, the ILGWU was led by men.
It's Friday Night! Party Time! Time to relax, put your feet up on the couch, lay back, and watch some detailed videos on economic policy!
Earlier this week I took a first pass look at a flawed probability model behind various types of derivatives.
With that in mind I went looking for information on further mathematical follies which resulted in economic collapse.
Two films goes over Black–Scholes as well as the hedge fund debacle Long Term Capital Management and it's use of mathematical models, bounds and assumptions, which caused it's demise.
The situation at the mortgage giants of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continue to get worse. The news yesterday is that Fannie Mae lost another $25.2 Billion last quarter and has requested another $15.2 Billion bailout just to stay afloat.
“We expect the market conditions that contributed to our net loss for each quarter of 2008 to continue and possibly worsen in 2009, which is likely to cause further reductions in our net worth,” Fannie Mae said in a statement.
The other player here, Freddie Mac, is watching defaults on its mortgage debts accelerate to record highs. Freddie will need another bailout as well.
January New Home Sales, released yesterday, were -- perversely -- good news! Despite the perfectly correct mantra that new home sales continued to cliff-dive, and that, as my friend Bonddad said not once but Twice(!) yesterday, "We're Nowhere Near a Bottom in Housing" the simple fact is that the housing market is showing ample signs of the beginning of a transition.
Oh here we go. The headlines scream the biggest budget in history, it is wealth redistribution and on and on.
So, let's find out what is in the Obama administration Budget Proposal of 2010. Firstly the actual budget is on The White House website. Secondly, here is the total cost:
government outlays for this year will end up at $3.94 trillion, up 32 percent from a year ago. That would yield a record deficit of $1.75 trillion in the year ending Sept. 30, equal to about 12 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product, the highest since World War II.
Here are some hard numbers discovered so far that might be of interest:
might be wearing off somewhat. Like Freddy Kreuger, Michael Myers, or Jason Voorhees, it appears that American consumer simply refuses to stay dead, but instead is rising, zombie-like, from the grave to spend another day.
It's Friday Night! Party Time! Time to relax, put your feet up on the couch, lay back, and watch some detailed videos on economic policy! 
Despite the perfectly correct mantra that new home sales continued to cliff-dive, and that, as my friend Bonddad said not once but Twice(!) yesterday,
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