Warsh Likes It Hot, And Will Move The Fed's Inflation Target To 2.5-3.5%

By Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research

Executive Summary:

• The Fed will run the US economy hot – because, with labour demand and supply now in balance, both demand and supply must expand to keep output expanding.

• Short-term US real rates will come down further because the Fed will continue to cut even with inflation in the 2.5-3.5 percent range.

• The US dollar will continue to weaken, given the currency’s dependence on real interest rate differentials.

• The US yield curve will undergo a ‘bear steepening’ as US inflation expectations ratchet higher. Meaning, T-bonds will underperform cash, as well as other major sovereign bonds.

• Stocks will continue to outperform bonds.

• New tactical trade: Overweight MSCI ACW Consumer Discretionary versus Industrials.

Some Like It Hot

The US economy has reached a watershed. For the first time since the pandemic, labor demand and labor supply are in perfect balance, with both now standing at 172 million workers.

Labor supply equals the number of available workers: those with jobs plus those without jobs. Labor demand equals the number of people in work plus job vacancies plus workers on temporary layoff. Many people miss this last component of labor demand. Labor demand must include workers on temporary layoff because there is demand for these workers, albeit they are on temporary layoff for idiosyncratic reasons (such as a government shutdown).

Put a different but equivalent way, the labor market is balanced when the number of ‘jobs looking for workers’ (job vacancies) equals the number of ‘workers looking for jobs.’ The latter means the unemployed. But given that those on temporary layoff are not looking for jobs, it more correctly means the unemployed that are not on temporary layoff.

The number of job vacancies and the number of unemployed not on temporary layoff both now stand at 6.6 million workers

So, correctly measured either way, the US labor market is now in balance.

A Labor Market In Balance Means Double Jeopardy

The US labor market is in balance, but such a balance is extremely rare. In the normal state, that prevailed for decades prior to the pandemic, labor demand runs short of labor supply. Meaning the economy is demand-constrained. 

Since the pandemic though, in a highly unusual state, the relationship flipped. Labor supply has been running short of labor demand. Meaning the economy has been supply-constrained.

The distinction between demand-constrained and supply-constrained is crucial because it is the constraint on the economy – the lower of demand and supply – that drives economic output.

In a normal demand-constrained economy therefore, a demand recession causes a GDP recession. In a supply-constrained economy however, it takes a supply recession to cause a GDP recession. This explains why the abnormally supply-constrained US economy cheated a GDP recession when demand went into recession through 2023-24. The growth in the constraint – labor supply – kept output growing.

Now though, the US economy is at a watershed that puts it in ‘double jeopardy’. Given that labor demand and labor supply are in perfect balance, a drop in either would cause output to contract.

Put another way, both demand and supply must expand. To counter this double jeopardy, the Fed must run the economy hot.

Stimulate demand. But also stimulate supply by creating conditions for labor participation to rise – to offset the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) expulsions of (illegal) migrant workers.

Don’t Bet On An AI-Driven Productivity Surge

If the US labor market is back in the balance it was pre-pandemic, then why is US wage inflation still running hotter than pre-pandemic?

You might counter that the just-released Employment Cost Index (ECI) showed quarter-on-quarter wage inflation slowing to just 3 percent (annualized rate). Yet quarter-on-quarter wage inflation is highly volatile. More meaningful is the smoother 4-quarter wage inflation rate, running at 3.4 percent.

You might further counter that even 3.4 percent achieves the target of 3.5 percent wage inflation that several Fed governors have claimed is consistent with 2 percent price inflation.

Yet 3.5 percent ECI inflation is not consistent with 2 percent price inflation.

The very well-established relationship between ECI inflation and core PCE inflation tells us that, to be consistent with core PCE inflation at 2 percent, ECI inflation must be at 3 percent

Again, you might counter that such a 1 percent gap between ECI inflation and core PCE inflation implies that productivity growth is 1 percent, which is implausibly low. Yet while other more comprehensive measures of productivity growth may show a higher number, 1 percent is the well-established gap between these two specific datasets.

Finally, you might counter that even this specific 1 percent gap should widen if AI boosts productivity growth, allowing wage inflation to run hotter. Yet, despite much wishful thinking, the fact that the gap has not widened warns us that we should not bet on an AI-driven productivity surge as our base case.

The Warsh Fed Will Let The US Economy Run Hot

The reason that wage inflation has gapped structurally higher versus the jobs-workers gap is that the composition of the US labor market has structurally changed. As I highlighted in Why The World’s Fate Hangs On 2.5 Million Older American,  there are almost 3 million fewer older workers in the US labor supply now than before the pandemic.

The loss of millions of older workers is significant because many jobs are non-fungible by age. Just as older workers cannot do younger-aged jobs that require physical strength or athleticism, younger workers cannot do older-aged jobs that require decades of acquired skills or experience.

Therefore, the shortfall of older workers has created an additional tightness in the US labor market which is not captured in the aggregate jobs-workers gap. Once we account for this additional tightness, we get a near-perfect explanation for the evolution of US wage inflation. 

To repeat, faced with the double jeopardy of declining labor demand or declining labor supply, the Fed will turn a blind eye to this structural uplift in wage inflation. It will do this by de facto moving its inflation target to 2.5-3.5 percent. In effect, a Warsh-led Fed will let the US economy run hot.

There are several investment conclusions:

• Short-term US real rates will come down further because the Fed will continue to cut even with inflation in the 2.5-3.5 percent range.
• The US dollar will continue to weaken, given the currency’s dependence on real interest rate differentials.
• The US yield curve will undergo a ‘bear steepening’ as US inflation expectations ratchet higher. Meaning, T-bonds will underperform cash, as well as other major sovereign bonds.
• Stocks will continue to outperform bonds, as the Fed runs the US economy hot.

New Tactical Trade: Overweight Consumer Discretionary Versus Industrials

Consumer Discretionary has underperformed Industrials by almost 20 percent through the last 65 trading days. But the collapsed complexity  of this near-vertical underperformance suggests that the magnitude and pace is overdone.

The potential pivot could be the market warming to the US consumer, given the combined effect of ultra-low US real interest rates, fiscal stimulus, and a still-robust labour market.

Hence, in line with our thesis that the Fed will run the US economy hot, and given the stark underperformance of Consumer Discretionary, a new tactical trade is to go overweight MSCI ACW Consumer Discretionary versus Industrials.

Set the profit target/stop-loss at +/-10 percent, and trade expiry on March 25th.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 07:20

Mercedes Warns Of Fresh Margin Squeeze As China Struggles Persist

Mercedes-Benz warned that profitability in its car division could come under renewed strain this year, underscoring a difficult outlook as the luxury group contends with elevated costs, weak demand in China and global trade tariffs, according to Reuters.

Shares fell as much as 5.7% after the announcement and were down 3.1% by mid-morning trade on Thursday.

Presenting 2025 results that fell short of expectations, CEO Ola Kaellenius told investors, "The rules are changing," adding, "We are fundamentally reinventing the company."

The automaker projected a 2026 adjusted return on sales of 3% to 5% in its core cars unit, compared with 5% last year — below the 5.4% analysts had forecast. Group operating profit dropped 57% to 5.8 billion euros, missing the expected 6.6 billion euros, hit by roughly 1 billion euros in tariff costs, adverse currency effects and sliding sales in China.

Reuters writes that while management expects a marked rebound in operating profit this year following 1.6 billion euros in redundancy charges in 2025, challenges in China persist. Finance chief Harald Wilhelm said car sales there are likely to decline again in 2026 after a 19% fall last year, as competition intensifies against domestic rivals and peers such as Volkswagen and BMW.

Mercedes is banking on an aggressive rollout of 40 new models over the next three years — beginning with its updated flagship S-Class — to regain momentum in the world’s largest auto market.

Over the longer term, the company aims to lift margins in its autos division back to 8%–10%, supported by what it called "relentless cost discipline." Measures include job reductions launched in 2025 and expanded production in lower-cost locations such as Kecskemet, Hungary. Analysts at Jefferies said the medium-term target "looks confident but may be questioned."

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 06:55

My end-of-week morning paraskevidekatriaphobia WFH reads:

• The Big Money in Today’s Economy Is Going to Capital, Not Labor: Soaring profits and stocks funnel more of GDP toward companies, their top employees and shareholders. AI will intensify this trend. (Wall Street Journal)

• A Stanford Experiment to Pair 5,000 Singles Has Taken Over Campus: A student built a matchmaking algorithm called Date Drop that has consumed the school—and highlighted the challenges of finding love for high achievers. It has become an all-consuming force on campus, pairing thousands of students every Tuesday night at 9pm. Turns out the best and brightest can crack quantum physics but not “hey, wanna get coffee?” (Wall Street Journal) see also How a Math Genius Hacked OkCupid to Find True: Love Mathematician Chris McKinlay hacked OKCupid to find the woman of his dreams. (Wired)

• Who Is Paying for the 2025 U.S. Tariffs? First, 94 percent of the tariff incidence was borne by the U.S. in the first eight months of 2025 (Liberty Street Economics)

• How the Merrill Lynch deal made Bloomberg: Lessons from The origin story of how a single trade terminal contract with Merrill Lynch transformed Michael Bloomberg’s startup into a financial data empire. Bloomberg-Merrill Lynch in an Anthropic era. (Substack)

• The shadowy world of abandoned oil tankers: Over the past year there has been a big rise in the number of oil tankers and other commercial ships being abandoned around the world by their owners. What is causing the spike? And what is the human impact on the affected merchant sailors? (BBC)

• The secret to happiness? These experts say it’s feeling loved by others. A happiness researcher and a relationship expert teamed up to write about how we can all feel more loved. They argue it’s the key to happiness. (Washington Post)

• The Incompetent Confidence Complex: An Epidemic of Unchecked Incompetence: The intellectual foe of unchecked storytelling is the existence of objective reality. I believe in eternal truths. There are fundamental realities of the cosmology of the universe that are unchanging and fixed realities. But there are very, very few eternal truths. Everything else is pretty darn subject to opinion. (Investing 101 / Substack)

• The Hidden Bias in Language That Turned Left-Handedness Into a Bad Thing: While the days of forcing left-handed children to use their right hands are mostly over, the bias against lefties continues in most languages around the world. The word “sinister” literally means “left.” From Latin roots to modern idioms, language has been quietly slandering lefties for centuries. (Mental Floss)

• Your friends are still acting like everything is normal in America. What do you do? All Americans live in a “dual state.” Here’s what that means — and how to help others see it. (Vox) see also Faced With Trump, Libertarianism Shrugged: The libertarian movement should have been one of the first lines of defense against this aspiring autocrat. It folded instead. (The Bulwark)

• Olympians Can Eat All the Pasta in Italy. So Why Are They Drinking Broccoli? Cross-country skiers are slurping up a potentially performance-enhancing drink of the concentrated vegetable in the hope of speeding up their recovery. https://www.wsj.com/sports/olympics/cross-country-skiing-broccoli-8c706442?st=hSksN9&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this week with Heather & Doug Bonaparthe, a married couple who work together and wrote a book on the financial challenges couples face: “Money Together: How to find fairness in your relationship and become an unstoppable financial team.” Our discussion sits somewhere in between financial planning and couples therapy, built around real stories that try to help couples find a healthier approach to money.

 

AI is 3 years old. A majority of Americans say they use it every week

Source: @DKThomp

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

 

The post 10 Friday the 13th Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

"Bye-Bye Data Center": German Town Rejects Multi-Billion Euro Construction Project

Via Remix News,

Germany is increasingly rebelling against multi-billion-euro data centers, reflecting a trend seen in other Western countries. This time, Groß-Gerau, a town outside of the mega internet hub of Frankfurt, is the latest to reject the construction of a major data center over fears of rising power costs, diminished water and environmental resources, ugly aesthetics, and skepticism over job creation.

Major U.S. investors were behind the push to build the 174-megawatt data center, but local residents and politicians have successfully stopped construction of the five-building complex, which represented €2.5 billion in investment.

The city parliament of the southern Hessian district town officially stopped the construction of the project by Vantage Data Centers. According to German media reports, the assembly rejected the proposal in an 18 to 14 vote, according to Welt newspaper.

The opposition was led by a coalition of mostly left-wing and libertarian parties — the SPD, Greens, FDP, Free Voters, and the Left Party. Meanwhile, the business-friendly CDU and the Free Voters’ Association backed the project.

Although the investors had already purchased the 14-hectare site on the outskirts of the city, residents were not convinced they wanted a data center in their own backyard.

Frankfurt already saturated

Frankfurt, also a major financial hub, has already seen some of the densest clusters of data centers in Europe.

In early 2026, NVIDIA and Deutsche Telekom launched a major industrial AI cloud in the region featuring over 10,000 GPUs, specifically designed for high-performance AI training and inference.

The market in Frankfurt has surpassed 1.3 GW (Gigawatts) of live capacity, with projections to reach 2.5 GW by 2031. Frankfurt is currently on track to overtake London as Europe’s largest data center market within the next five years.

Now, residents are revolting against these trends, with concerns over rising power costs, diminished water and environmental resources, and a lack of jobs generated by the centers.

Skepticism and fear

The town resisted for a variety of reasons, including aesthetics, a lack of jobs, and the sheer scale of the project.

Residents also feared the five massive buildings would tower over and damage the cityscape of the town, which has just over 20,000 inhabitants.

Mayor Jörg Rüddenklau (SPD) also did not believe the promised benefits would materialize, doubting the facility would generate significant new jobs or trade tax revenue.

The same resistance has been seen elsewhere in Germany, and in fact, on a global scale. In Bavaria, local groups have successfully argued that these “server barns” provide almost no local jobs — often fewer than 50 for a multi-billion euro site — while occupying vast amounts of valuable industrial land that could be used for manufacturing and other purposes.

In response to these growing concerns, the German government has introduced some of the world’s strictest regulations to appease locals.

By 2028, new data centers must reuse at least 20 percent of their waste heat, and projects that cannot prove this are being rejected. Starting in 2027, all German data centers must also cover their consumption entirely with renewable energy. This is making it harder for investors to find viable sites, as they now need to be located near major wind or solar sites.

Politicians celebrate

Following the vote in Groß-Gerau, Mayor Rüddenklau emphasized that he refused to be pressured, describing the rejection as a vital course of action. His party’s parliamentary group was even more direct, stating that the “city would not be sold to a major investor.”

The local Green Party also wrote on its website: “Bye-bye data center – billion-dollar ‘deal’ happily falls through.”

The Green Party characterized the decision as a victory for the community, noting that “with the rejection of the project, an oversized, highly problematic urban planning and ecological project is off the table.”

The party stated that the site would now be developed in a “socially acceptable and future-proof” manner.

More resistance on the horizon

Meanwhile, massive data center projects are advancing in other areas of Germany. A massive 300 MW “Mega Campus” is moving forward to serve the Brandenburg Wustermark region outside Berlin, but it has faced intense scrutiny over its impact on the local water table.

Beyond Groß-Gerau, towns like Hanau are seeing organized “neighbor resistance.” Residents are citing a 2025 study showing that some data centers consume as much water as small cities during summer heatwaves to keep servers cool.

Germany’s Energy Efficiency Act (EnEfG), which became strictly binding for many operators in 2025, has only exacerbated the problem. Grid connection requests have skyrocketed near many major cities. In Berlin alone, data center requests have reached nearly 3 GW, far exceeding what the city’s current infrastructure can handle.

Data centers are driving up the price of electricity for households and starving other sectors of power.

A similar conflict is also running in the German town of Maintal, where the U.S. firm “Edgeconnex” is pursuing a 170-megawatt data center.

Critics say these projects are necessary for Germany’s “digital future,” but with AI data centers not only generating very few jobs, but also threatening to wipe out jobs for millions in the future, some local residents are having trouble understanding what they are getting out of these deals besides high energy prices, diminished water supplies, and ugly eyesores on the landscape.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 02:00

A Warning To Seattle: Don't Become The Next Cleveland

Authored by Charles Fitzgerald via GeekWire.com,

Consider a successful mid-sized American city. One with decades of population growth. Median household incomes on par with or exceeding New York City. A bustling port in a prime location. Bold civic architecture. A vibrant arts and cultural scene. And home to some of the world’s biggest and most valuable companies.

That could be Seattle. It also describes Cleveland about 75 years ago.

In the 1950s, Cleveland was an epicenter for the era’s “Big Tech.” Industrial giants like Standard Oil, Republic Steel, and Sherwin Williams were all founded in Cleveland. Like engineering outposts in Seattle, other leading companies including General Motors, Westinghouse, and U.S. Steel were well represented locally. 

Yet Cleveland’s success unraveled remarkably quickly.

Within 20 years, when the Cuyahoga River caught fire in 1969, the city was seared into history as “the mistake on the lake.” The population has declined by 60% since 1950 (and is still shrinking). Cleveland has gone from the seventh largest U.S. city in the country to the 56th. Median household incomes are now less than half the national average — and less than 40% of the Seattle area. 

Today in Seattle tech circles there is great trepidation about the region’s next act. Seattle is not punching above its weight in the AI era the way we did in the software era. We might not even be punching our weight.

Entrepreneurs, executives, investors, and technologists are departing, either because they don’t think they can be competitive here in the white-hot AI market and/or are concerned about a deteriorating business environment. And the exodus appears to be accelerating.

You might take solace that our little corner of the country hosts two of the world’s five biggest companies (which is a little crazy). But it is easy to believe both Amazon and Microsoft are past peak employee count, as they become more capital-intensive and lean into AI-driven productivity. Other local tech companies and engineering centers are also shrinking, while new job listings have plummeted. 

While the tech sector confronts existential dread, the political class in Seattle and Washington state seems oblivious. They don’t have much to say about creating jobs or nurturing industries of the future (or even of the present). Revenue is their focus above all else, with considerably less emphasis on how our taxes translate into efficient and effective provision of government services.

Charles Fitzgerald at the GeekWire Cloud Summit in 2019. (GeekWire File Photo / Kevin Lisota)

The traditional Seattle civic partnership between business and government has frayed. Few lessons have been learned from Boeing’s slow-motion migration out of the Seattle area (Washington is now home to just over a third of Boeing employees, and due to decrease further).

Relations between the tech industry and government are rocky, with the industry seen almost exclusively as a bottomless source of revenue. It would be shocking — but not surprising — to one day learn Amazon and/or Microsoft are moving their headquarters out of the state. (Bellevue already looks like Amazon’s HQ1 in all but name).

The tech boom has been an immense boon for Seattle, as the city attracted talent from all over the world.

Seattle’s population has grown by almost 40% in the 21st century, and the City of Seattle rode that tailwind. The city’s inflation-adjusted budget grew over three times faster than the population over the same period. 

That growth raises some obvious questions.

Are city services three times better? How long can government spending keep outgrowing the population? What happens if population growth slows — or even reverses?

Meanwhile, city issues loom large in the desirability of doing business in Seattle.

Downtown is barren, with record vacancies. Public safety, housing and homelessness are perennial hot topics, but progress is scarcer. After the recent election, we’re apparently going to take another shot at those persistent problems with progressive panaceas that have seen limited success, both locally and elsewhere. 

Amazon’s Spheres, with the Space Needle in the background. (GeekWire File Photo / Kurt Schlosser)

Completely missing from any discussion is the crisis in our schools, where the majority of fourth and eighth graders in Seattle are not proficient in reading or math.

Education is one of the most effective solutions to many social ailments — and a mandatory prerequisite for an advanced civilization — yet we’ve seemingly given up.

Which brings us back to Cleveland.

When its fortunes began to shift, Cleveland’s politicians made a bad situation worse. A confrontational, short-term posture from government made it easy for companies to put Cleveland plants at the top of their closure lists. Contrast that with another Rust Belt city, Pittsburgh, where politicians and business worked together to accept and manage the inevitable transition. They defined the post-industrial playbook for cities — one Cleveland belatedly adopted. 

Seattle has always been a lucky city. Prosperity has often come from unexpected sources. The Alaska gold rush was, quite literally, a gold rush. Bill #1 (Boeing) made Seattle synonymous with aerospace. Proximity to Alaska gave us a competitive container port, while rival ports like Portland and San Francisco dried up. Bill #2 (Gates) catalyzed a software industry in Seattle (and beyond). Jeff (Bezos) famously drove to Seattle in his Chevy Blazer, where he pioneered e-commerce and created a million and a half jobs along the way.

Maybe the luck holds and the next big thing just shows up. It could be space, energy, robotics, biotech or something unimaginable today. Hopefully we get lucky again, but hope, as they say, is not a strategy. 

So I’ll offer a catchphrase as you think about Seattle’s next act: Don’t be Cleveland.

(I want to be very clear that I mean no offense to Cleveland. The people there today are still digging out of a hole created decades ago. Let’s learn from them and not repeat the errors of their forebears.)

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 22:35

E. Coli At 'Incredibly Dangerous Levels' As DC Raw Sewage Spill Into Potomac May Be Largest In US History

Raw sewage from a 60-year-old pipe has dumped roughly 300 million gallons of waste into the Potomac River in what is possibly the largest sewage overflow in U.S. history, according to environmental advocates and regional officials.

A recently placed warning sign is seen at the sight of a massive pipe rupture, as sewage flows into the Potomac River, right, in Glen Echo, Maryland, on Friday.
Cliff Owen/AP

DC Water said last week that a section of its sewer system known as the Potomac Interceptor collapsed along the Clara Barton Parkway on Jan. 19, triggering a massive discharge of untreated wastewater into the river.

In a press release, the utility estimated that approximately 243 million gallons of wastewater had overflowed from the collapse site. On Monday, DC Water said there had been an additional “significant overflow” on Sunday during a period of high river flow, noting that some bypass pumps were not in service at the time.

The Potomac Riverkeeper Network, a local environmental advocacy organization, claimed in a Facebook post Wednesday that the total volume of sewage released had surpassed 300 million gallons.

An analysis of the water by the University of Maryland (UMD) and the Riverkeepers found "high levels of fecal-related bacteria and disease-causing pathogens" - which they say raise "urgent public health concerns." 

"Raw sewage from a 60-year-old pipe has vomited roughly 300 million gallons into the Potomac River and is still not fully contained," said PRKN President Betsy Nicholas. 

Dean Naujoks, who holds the title of Potomac Riverkeeper, told The Baltimore Sun that the only comparable sewage spill he could recall occurred in 2017 along the U.S.-Mexico border, when roughly 230 million gallons of wastewater were released.

“The Potomac River is a shared natural treasure, and any event that threatens its health understandably causes concern, frustration, and a sense of loss,” DC Water CEO David L. Gadis said in an open letter released Wednesday. “Those feelings are not only valid — but they are also shared by all of us at DC Water.”

Environmental experts say the scale of the spill is difficult to contextualize but extraordinary by regional standards.

Gussie Maguire, a Maryland staff scientist with the Chesapeake Bay Foundation, compared the volume released in Washington to annual sewage overflow totals in Baltimore.

“The way that I put it into perspective for myself and for people before is I compared it to annual sewage overflow amounts,” Maguire told The Hill in a Thursday interview. “You don’t really necessarily want to think about it, but there are a lot of sewage overflows going on in any particular year.”

Maguire said Baltimore’s largest recent annual sewage overflow occurred in 2018, when the city released approximately 250 to 260 million gallons over the course of the entire year — a volume comparable to the Potomac spill from a single infrastructure failure.

She also noted that the section of sewer that collapsed had already been slated for upgrades, with DC Water having allocated more than $600 million for planned improvements.

While the spill itself was a single incident, Maguire said the underlying vulnerabilities that caused it are widespread.

“The sewage spill was a single event, but the circumstances that led to it are not unique,” she said, adding that sustained funding for infrastructure upgrades is “really, really important, so that we don’t see this sort of large-scale spill become a regular occurrence.”

The environmental consequences have been immediate. Researchers from the University of Maryland reported that E. coli bacteria levels at a Potomac River monitoring site were 10,000 times above Environmental Protection Agency recreational standards two days after the Jan. 19 rupture. A week later, those levels had fallen but remained 2,500 times above federal guidelines.

Officials have warned that monitoring and cleanup efforts will continue as repairs to the damaged sewer infrastructure move forward.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 22:10

Judge Boasberg Orders Government To Facilitate Return Of Deported Venezuelans

Authored by Stacy Robinson via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge in Washington has ordered the Trump administration to facilitate the return of Venezuelans whom he said should receive a hearing after their deportation under the Alien Enemies Act.

U.S. District Judge James Boasberg wrote in his Feb. 12 ruling that the government must parole those deportees into U.S. custody if they present themselves at a port of entry and provide them due process to contest their deportation.

Boasberg said his ruling was intended to mirror a Supreme Court ruling from last year, which upheld U.S. District Judge Paula Xinis’s order that the government “facilitate” the return of Kilmar Abrego Garcia.

The government will also have to pay for the flights and provide a boarding letter to the deportees, but that only applies to those flying in from a third country, not Venezuela itself.

The return might be short-lived, Boasberg said, since anyone who is flown back or paroled into the country will be detained by U.S. immigration officials and held in custody while their case plays out.

They also face being deported again at the end of the proceedings.

An attorney for the plaintiffs previously told the judge that some of his clients were willing to take that risk.

The ruling is the latest chapter for the deportees, who were sent to El Salvador’s CECOT terrorism confinement center last year. They were subsequently released into Venezuela.

Boasberg ruled in December that the government needed to give the Venezuelans an opportunity to contest their deportation. When the Justice Department objected to that ruling, the judge ordered a hearing to discuss ways the government could provide due process.

“I never said, and the plaintiffs never said, they were not deportable,” Boasberg remarked at that hearing on Feb. 9.

The question, he told the court, was whether the plaintiffs were deportable under the Alien Enemies Act, and if they had been given due process.

The Justice Department argued, in a court filing ahead of the hearing, that Boasberg lacked jurisdiction over the detainees since they had been turned over to the El Salvadoran government and released into Venezuela.

The DOJ also said remote hearings were infeasible, since the U.S. government would have no way of combating perjury or testing the identity of witnesses in such proceedings.

The volatile political situation might also complicate matters, the DOJ argued.

Responding to those concerns, Boasberg said in his order that plaintiffs could file supplemental challenges to their deportation—along with proof that they were not Tren de Aragua members—and he would decide whether to require such hearings, and their logistics, later.

He also punted on the jurisdiction question, saying the government can argue against any upcoming plaintiff filings.

An attorney for the plaintiffs said some of his clients had no association with Tren de Aragua and would be able to prove it if given a chance.

He and his team had identified a “handful” of plaintiffs who managed to leave Venezuela, and were willing to return to the United States for in-person hearings, though he didn’t want to specify in open court where they were living.

Boasberg has ordered him to reveal those locations to the court, but under sealed documents.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 21:45

Inpex Warns Of Looming LNG Crunch in Asia

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com,

Japan’s Inpex expects an LNG supply shortfall in the Pacific coastal region, including Asia, in 2035, as demand will nearly double from current levels, the oil and gas major said in its 2025 earnings report on Thursday. 

Global LNG demand is expected to increase to about 700 million tons per year in 2035, up from the current level of around 400 million tons annually, according to the Japanese company, which operates the Ichthys LNG project offshore Western Australia.  

“Demand will be concentrated in the Asia–Oceania region, accounting for about 60% of the total,” Inpex said in the outlook to 2035.  

“Supply shortfall is expected in the Pacific coastal region, including Asia,” the company noted in its LNG Supply and Demand Outlook in the report. 

While other regions look sufficiently supplied, the Pacific coastal region could see a supply shortfall of 231 million tons per year in 2035, according to Inpex. 

Despite warnings of a near-term global LNG glut, top exporters in the Middle East, including Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), see strong demand going forward and flag insufficient investment in supply in the medium to long term.

The UAE is growing its LNG exports to meet surging global demand that will outpace investment in supply, Energy Minister Suhail al Mazrouei told Reuters at the end of last year.

“I agree with his excellency, Minister of Qatar, that the demand is going to be much, much more than the projects that we are seeing,” the UAE official added. 

Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, who is QatarEnergy’s CEO as well as the Minister of State for Energy Affairs of Qatar, said in December “I have no worry at all about demand in the future.”

“I have a worry about the lack of investment for additional supply in the future, which will cause prices to spike,” Al-Kaabi added. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 20:05

Two Israelis Arrested, Indicted After Using Classified Iran Info For Polymarket Bets

The Israeli government has announced the arrest and indictment of an IDF military reservist and a civilian with classified clearances who placed bets regarding military operations on the popular Polymarket prediction market.

A joint statement by Shin Bet and the Israeli Police, which teamed up to conduct the investigation, said bets were made "based on classified information to which the reservists were exposed as part of their military duties."

via AFP

Authorities have not confirmed details of the specific bets, but it follows Kan News first reporting suspicions that officials within the defense ministry had leveraged classified information to profit on Polymarket.

At least one of the accused reportedly bet on the timing of Israel's opening strike on Iran in last June's 12-day war. The indictments mention "serious security offenses" as well as bribery and obstruction of justice.

According to the Times of Israel, one of the men netted about $150,000 based on the insider knowledge:

Last month, Kan said a user who went by the name ricosuave666 placed several bets in June 2025 with suspicious accuracy regarding Israeli military operations in Iran, wagering tens of thousands of dollars and making a profit of around $150,000.

While not identifying the men, the defense ministry and Israel Defense Forces (IDF) issued a lengthy statement.

"The defense establishment emphasizes that engaging in such betting activities, based on secret and classified information, poses a substantial security risk to IDF operations and to the security of the state," the statement indicated.

An IDF spokesperson continued, "The IDF views with utmost severity any act that endangers the security of the state, particularly the use of highly classified information for the purpose of personal gain."

The IDF called it a "grave ethical failure and a clear crossing of a red line," and indicated that "In response to the incident, measures have been taken and procedures will be reinforced across all IDF units to prevent similar cases from recurring."

There have been several similar 'insider betting' scandals in the United States related to fast-moving geopolitical events, for example involving the timing of the Trump-ordered Venezuela military operation. Red flags have even been raised surrounding the Super Bowl halftime show:

Earlier this year, an anonymous bettor on Polymarket perfectly predicted the US invasion of Venezuela mere hours before over 150 US aircraft rocked the country’s capital of Caracas, netting them over $400,000.

The incident reignited a heated debate over insider trading on prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. While the act is strictly forbidden on Wall Street, prediction markets are currently operating in a regulatory vacuum, allowing those who enjoy insider status to score big — while everyone else is left to pick up the bill.

And the evidence that prediction markets are rife with insider traders continues to grow. As one eagle-eyed Reddit user noticed, an anonymous day-old Polymarket account correctly guessed 17 out of around 20 bets about Sunday’s Super Bowl half-time show.

Vegas did $130M on the Super Bowl.

Prediction markets did $1.33B. 10x Vegas

1. @Kalshi - $871M
2. @Polymarket - $312M
3. @opinionlabsxyz - $92M
4. @predictdotfun - $31M
5. @Novig - $19M
6. @SX_Bet - $5M
7. @Overtime_io - $443K

— MovieTime (@MovieTimeDev) February 10, 2026

"All told, they made about $17,000 in profit," the report observes, and points to the extreme unlikelihood, statistically-speaking, in getting 17 out of the 20 bets exactly right.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 19:40

American Colleges Received $5.2 Billion In Foreign Funding In 2025, Education Department Reveals

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

American colleges and universities received more than $5.2 billion in reportable foreign gifts and contracts last year through more than 8,300 transactions, the Department of Education said in a Feb. 11 statement.

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) campus in Cambridge, Mass., on May 25, 2025. Learner Liu/The Epoch Times

The database was compiled from foreign funding disclosures submitted by educational institutions. Such disclosures are mandated by Section 117 of the Higher Education Act, which obligates universities and colleges receiving federal funding to annually disclose gifts and contracts from foreign sources valued at $250,000 or more.

The top recipient of foreign funds last year was Carnegie Mellon University, which received almost $1 billion. This was followed by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, also at nearly $1 billion, Stanford University, which got more than $775 million, and Harvard University, which received more than $324 million, the department said.

Qatar was the biggest foreign source of reported gifts and contracts, pouring more than $1 billion into U.S. educational institutions last year. This was followed by the United Kingdom at more than $633 million, China at more than $528 million, Switzerland with $451 million plus, Japan with $374 million, Germany at more than $292 million, and Saudi Arabia spending more than $285 million.

The data has been made available for public inspection via the foreign funding higher education platform launched earlier this year by the Trump administration. The information is based on reports through Dec. 16, 2025.

Between 1986, when Section 117 was included in the Act, and Dec. 16, 2025, a total of $67.6 billion in foreign funding had been reported across 555 institutions, data from the platform show.

Qatar also topped the aggregate list of foreign funding sources at $7.7 billion, followed by China at $6.4 billion, and Germany at $4.7 billion.

The top recipient during this period was Harvard, which received $4.2 billion in foreign funding. Carnegie Mellon University came in second at $3.9 billion, followed by MIT with $3.5 billion.

In this multidecade period, Harvard was also the top recipient of funds from parties located in “countries of concern,” at $610 million. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology was second, receiving more than $490 million, while New York University received more than $462 million to hit the third spot.

Foreign countries of concern include China, North Korea, Russia, Iran, and other nations determined as such by the Department of State.

“Thanks to the Trump Administration’s new accountability portal, the American people have unprecedented visibility into the foreign dollars flowing into our colleges and universities—including funding from countries and entities that are involved in activities that threaten America’s national security,” Secretary of Education Linda McMahon said.

“This marks a new era of transparency for the American people and streamlined compliance for colleges and universities, making it easier than ever for institutions to meet their legal obligations.”

In April 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order on transparency regarding foreign influence at American universities.

The order instructed the education secretary to ensure robust enforcement of foreign funding reporting at higher educational institutions to prevent harm to American interests.

“It is the policy of my Administration to end the secrecy surrounding foreign funds in American educational institutions, protect the marketplace of ideas from propaganda sponsored by foreign governments, and safeguard America’s students and research from foreign exploitation,” the order said.

Investigations and Lawsuits

In its latest statement, the Department of Education said it had initiated four Section 117 investigations since the start of the Trump administration amid reports of “inaccurate and untimely foreign source gift and contract disclosures.”

The universities subject to the probe were Harvard, the University of Pennsylvania, the University of Michigan, and the University of California–Berkeley.

In addition to Section 117 enforcement, the Trump administration has engaged in legal conflicts with universities over various policies.

In July 2025, the administration withheld $584 million in research funds from the University of California–Los Angeles (UCLA), alleging that the institution failed to tackle anti-Semitism as well as discriminatory admission practices.

A lawsuit was filed in September 2025 by associations and labor groups representing employees at the university’s 10 campuses, alleging violation of First Amendment rights. In November 2025, a federal judge issued a preliminary injunction blocking the Trump administration from cutting federal funding to the university.

Harvard filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration in April, seeking to restore $2.2 billion in contracts and grants withheld by the government.

A federal judge reversed the funding freeze, highlighting that the government violated First Amendment rights while pushing forward its efforts to counter anti-Semitism. The Department of Justice appealed the decision in December 2025.

On Feb. 2, Trump announced that his administration would seek $1 billion in damages from Harvard, calling the university “strongly anti-Semitic.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 19:15

Confirmed: US Covertly Sent Thousands Of Starlink Terminals Into Iran Amid Unrest

The Trump administration has confirmed what was already long suspected -the US sent Iranian protesters thousands of Starlink terminals amid last month's raging economic protests and unrest.

The mainstream media had claimed the whole time that the demonstrations were both purely peaceful and completely spontaneous, but a Thursday Wall Street Journal piece greatly muddies this MSM narrative.

Source: Getty Images

"After Iranian authorities smothered mounting unrest in January by killing thousands of protesters and severely cutting internet connectivity, the U.S. smuggled roughly 6,000 of the satellite-internet kits into the country, the first time the U.S. has directly sent Starlink into Iran," WSJ writes.

This also contradicts earlier claims from weeks ago that it was merely activist non-profit NGO groups which got a small amount of Starlink systems to protesters. That was perhaps the 'cover' narrative. But later it became evident the SpaceX-made comms equipment was more ubiquitous.

Skeptical observers questioned how that amount of sophisticated equipment could so easily get across Iran's borders at a moment security forces were on a high state of alert. They concluded, reasonably, that it must have had the involvement of Western intelligence services.

“The State Department had purchased nearly 7,000 Starlink terminals in earlier months—with most bought in January—to help antiregime activists circumvent internet shut-offs in Iran, officials said.” https://t.co/1Hmx3QNQCR

— Bianna Golodryga (@biannagolodryga) February 12, 2026

WSJ tries to tiptoe around the obvious contradictions:

President Trump was aware of the deliveries, officials said, but they didn’t know if he or someone else directly approved of the plan.

Tehran has repeatedly accused Washington, without evidence, of playing a role in fomenting popular dissent and organizing last month’s nationwide demonstrations in the country of 90 million people. Iranians were protesting years of economic mismanagement, a weakening currency and hard-line rule.

The U.S. has denied any connection to the uprising, though the Starlink operation shows the Trump administration has done more to support antiregime efforts than has been previously known.

The publication brazenly claims the accusations of an external hidden hand are "without evidence" while in the very next stanza admitting a direct connection, and then seeking to downplay it.

Trump had even in real-time repeatedly said "help is on the way" - even as dozens or possibly hundreds among the dead and injured were police officers and among security forces. This showed some level of an armed element mixed into the destabilizing demonstrations.

Starlink devices, clearly present during the protests given local photo and video evidence, are illegal in Iran and authorities are still trying to uncover and hunt down presumed smuggling networks.

Russian media taking note of the emerging story:

US SMUGGLED 1,000S of Starlink terminals into IRAN after protests erupted — WSJ report

In 'an effort to keep dissidents ONLINE'

'Provided covert support' to RIOTERS pic.twitter.com/s6tEezhtJA

— RT (@RT_com) February 12, 2026

The State Dept has been calling its ongoing purchases of Starlink terminals for Iran part of an 'internet freedom' initiative, but if the situation were reversed, Washington obviously wouldn't stand for it. It is easy to imagine American outrage in the scenario where Iran was the one issuing communications equipment to anti-Trump protesters in the US on a mass scale, for example.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 18:50

Half Of Gen Z Brings Parents To Job Interviews: Survey

Authored by Oscar Mackey via The College Fix,

80% said their parents have communicated with their manager at least once...

Over 50% of college-age job seekers had their parents sit with them at an in-person interview, a January survey by Resume Templates found.  What’s more, over 35% of surveyed individuals reported parents either writing a cover letter or performing a test assignment for them.  

Julia Toothacre, a career coach and chief career strategist at the survey group, said she had never seen parents this involved in their child’s job searches in the past. 

“When I was doing career development at the college level, we would see parents come in to talk about majors and sometimes career choices, but they weren’t sitting in on interviews or communicating with managers,” Toothacre told The College Fix in a recent interview via email.

When asked what she believed caused this trend, Toothacre replied, “I think COVID played a larger role in this parental involvement than many people want to admit.” 

She elaborated:

“Right now, one of the main factors is the unpredictable market. I think parents are seeing how difficult it’s been to get hired and how many entry-level and early-career positions are being replaced with AI or simply being limited. 

“Second, I believe this generation, while more emotionally aware, also experiences greater anxiety than previous generations. Couple that with living through COVID during formative years, and there is going to be a portion of this generation that feels like they need additional support,” Toothacre told The Fix.

The survey polled young adults ages 18-23.  

Parental involvement in this survey was defined as “the actions a parent took for their child during the job search process.”

The young adults surveyed reported parental involvement was often repeated.  They also said parents submitted applications (64%), completed test assignments (51%), and sat in on in-person interviews (51%). 

Additionally, 80% said their parents have communicated with their manager at least once, including 67% who reported multiple instances.  During these interactions, the most common topic was their schedule or hours (58%), and the second most common was workplace accommodations (38%).  

What’s more, young men were more likely to report repeated involvement by their parents than young women: 70% of men said their parents submitted an application for them compared to 59% of women.  Young men also reported a similar trend in parents writing emails (61% vs. 52%) and joining multiple in-person interviews (57% vs. 47%).

The career service group also polled 181 parents in a separate survey. A majority of the parents said their involvement was requested by their child, and their reasons for doing tasks on their child’s behalf included a difficult job market, inexperience, and anxiety.  

According to the parents surveyed, 71% reported their adult child requesting help, while 25% offered help.  

When asked about the survey, Lenore Skenazy, a journalist and founder of Let Grow, a movement advocating for child independence, said parents to step back and let their children learn more on their own. Speaking with The Fix in a recent phone interview, she said doing so encourages resilience and independence. 

“It’s a natural impulse, helping our kids,” Skenazy said. 

And while it’s good for young adults to ask for help, she said parents also need to let their children step up. The older children become, the more parents need to trust them to do things on their own, Skenazy said.

A 2024 survey by Resume Templates found similar results with one in four young adults saying they brought their parents to a job interview, The Fix reported previously.

“[I]t’s becoming clear that constant adult supervision and intervention are hurting young people. This over-assistance is undermining their self-confidence and competence,” Skenazy told The Fix at the time.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 18:25

India's Richest Man Sees Company Shares Dip After OFAC Request On Iranian LPG Allegations

Shares of Adani Enterprises Ltd fell as much as 3.5% in Mumbai earlier this week before trimming losses, after the company disclosed that a US agency has sought information over alleged imports of Iranian petroleum products.

In a stock exchange filing, the flagship of the Adani Group said it received a request on Feb. 4 from the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), according to Telegraph India and Bloomberg.

The outreach followed voluntary discussions the company initiated after a June 2025 Wall Street Journal report that claimed Adani-linked firms may have brought Iranian liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) into India, potentially exposing transactions to US sanctions risk.

The company said OFAC is conducting a civil inquiry into certain transactions routed through US financial institutions that may have involved, directly or indirectly, Iran or sanctioned parties. It emphasized that the communication “does not contain any findings of aberrations/non-compliances” and that it is “voluntarily engaging and fully co-operating” with the US authority.

The Journal had reported that US prosecutors were examining whether companies controlled by billionaire Gautam Adani imported Iranian LPG through Mundra port in Gujarat. It also said some tankers operating between Mundra and the Persian Gulf displayed characteristics experts associate with sanctions evasion. Purchases of Iranian oil and related products are restricted under US sanctions tied to Tehran’s nuclear programme.

At the time, the conglomerate described the allegations as “baseless and mischievous” and said it “categorically denies any deliberate engagement in sanctions evasion or trade involving Iranian-origin LPG.” The group added that it does not handle cargo from Iran at its ports or manage vessels owned by Iranian entities.

Adani Enterprises said the matter has no financial impact. LPG contributed 1.46% of the company’s revenue and about 0.5% of overall group revenue in the fiscal year ended March 2025. It added that it halted all LPG imports from June 2, 2025, out of “abundant caution.”

The inquiry comes as the group continues to face scrutiny in the US, including a separate bribery probe and earlier allegations of stock manipulation and accounting irregularities by short seller Hindenburg Research in 2023, claims the conglomerate has denied.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 18:00

China's Central Bank Keeps Buying Gold... And Dumping US Debt

Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times,

China’s ferocious appetite for gold is influencing the global metals market, and that demand is what will keep driving up metal prices, according to Michael Howell, founder of CrossBorder Capital.

The People’s Bank of China’s gold holdings totaled 74.19 million fine troy ounces by the end of January, up from 74.15 million in the previous month, according to recent central bank data.

Beijing’s value of gold reserves also surged to $369.58 billion, from $319.45 billion in December 2025.

Gold accounts for almost 9 percent of China’s total reserves, the World Gold Council estimates.

The metals market has been on a roller coaster ride over the past few months.

Gold prices are currently trading at about $5,000 per ounce—up by 17 percent this year—on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Silver, the sister commodity to gold, is hovering at about $80 per ounce. The white metal has fallen sharply since reaching an all-time high of $121.

The commodities boom will continue, with a focus on oil and gold, Howell said in a recent interview with Siyamak Khorrami, host of EpochTV’s “California Insider.”

Global financial markets are experiencing a commodities boom, particularly in industrials, which coincides with the buildout of artificial intelligence infrastructure. At the same time, Howell said, energy is also witnessing a dramatic increase.

“Stronger economic activity worldwide will elevate oil prices from their current subdued levels,” he said. “Gold has had a tremendous rally over the last 18 months. It’s defied most predictions, but it continues to go up.”

China is playing an outsized role in its meteoric ascent.

Although retail traders are fueling sizable inflows into gold investments, China has been on a gold-buying spree for years as part of the country’s de-dollarization efforts.

For more than a decade, Beijing has been diversifying its foreign exchange reserves to reduce its exposure to the U.S. dollar and American assets, particularly Treasury securities.

In October, China’s holdings of U.S. debt fell to $688.7 billion, down by nearly 10 percent from the previous year, according to Treasury Department data.

Reports have surfaced that Chinese regulators have advised banks to trim their holdings of U.S. government bonds because of market volatility. Whether this shows up in the data over the coming months could further cement China’s long-term plans to ditch the dollar and remain in gold.

Influential Force in Gold Markets

As China remains one of the world’s largest buyers, it will also maintain an immense influence in global gold markets, according to Howell.

“The reason gold is going up is because of what’s happening in China,” he said.

It is no secret that China has largely shaped the global metals market through physical demand, whether through industrial consumption or retail use.

But recent activity on the Shanghai Futures Exchange indicates that Beijing is also influencing prices, said Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING.

“Rising turnover and open interest signal a greater role for speculative positioning in driving momentum, and notably, key price breaks in gold and silver have increasingly occurred during Asian hours, with Europe and the US following rather than leading,” Manthey said in a Feb. 6 research note.

Domestic investors are increasingly turning to commodity futures to express macro views and hedge risks, as property markets are weak, equities are uneven, and capital outflows face tighter controls, according to Manthey.

In this environment of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, metals—across the base and precious spectrum—have become a more prominent alternative investment channel.

Gold trading at a premium in China sends various signals to global markets, mainly the sign that domestic stockpiling is underway. This, Manthey said, sends the message that supplies are tightening and worldwide availability could be tightening.

Although fundamentals trump short-term speculative forces in precious metals, influential noise can trigger greater volatility and abrupt, sharper price corrections.

The Great Debasement

One long-term factor supporting the bullish case for gold is money printing.

Over the years, China has frequently engaged in monetary debasement through aggressive stimulus programs.

Howell estimates that officials have injected more than $1 trillion in liquidity into the financial system to prop up the world’s second-largest economy amid diminished household demand, trade strife, and slowing factory activity. At the same time, China is grappling with enormous debt.

“China’s probably got the biggest problem of the lot, because it’s still sitting on that huge real estate debt which has been saddling the economy,” Howell said.

Although Evergrande and Country Garden have not captured international attention lately, the fallout of China’s real estate bubble burst persists, featuring a mountain of red ink.

Today, China’s general government debt accounts for more than 100 percent of gross domestic product, reflecting the years-long dependence on credit-fueled growth.

The only solution for the authorities to prevent a debt-fueled crisis is to print money, according to Howell. Although defaults are one strategy, they would inevitably destroy the credit system.

“So what happens is central banks come in, and they print money, and that is the solution to every financial crisis you can think of going backwards, and that will be the solution to future financial crises,” Howell said.

“Given the fact that the debt levels are rising remorselessly year after year after year, politicians are kicking the can down the road,” he said. “They’ve got no appetite to control spending, and they just think the easy way out is either take on more debt or print money.”

At a time when assets have become the go-to investment for institutional investors and armchair traders, one of the most important strategies is to refrain from selling gold.

“You don’t want to be selling gold right now,” he said. “Strategically, you’ve got to hold gold.”

Good as Gold

In 10 years, gold could reach $10,000 per ounce, according to Howell—and he is not the only one presenting a bullish prognostication.

Yardeni Research forecasts $10,000 by the end of the decade.

“This is all happening because rising geopolitical tensions are driving a military arms race, and defense companies need metals to increase their output,” Yardeni Research said in a Jan. 25 research note.

“Also boosting metals prices is the geopolitical AI arms race, which is escalating capital spending on technology.”

Meanwhile, “deep currents” are supporting gold’s rally, such as U.S. deficit spending and central bank buying, said David Miller, senior portfolio manager at Catalyst Funds.

“These are very powerful forces and will likely drive gold significantly higher over the next three, five, or even [10] years,” Miller said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 17:40

The post More Thoughts on the Jobs Report appeared first on CEPR.

Peter Schiff: Printing Money Is Not the Cure for Cononavirus



In his most recent podcast, Peter Schiff talked about coronavirus and the impact that it is having on the markets. Earlier this month, Peter said he thought the virus was just an excuse for stock market woes. At the time he believed the market was poised to fall anyway. But as it turns out, coronavirus has actually helped the US stock market because it has led central banks to pump even more liquidity into the world financial system. All this means more liquidity — central banks easing. In fact, that is exactly what has already happened, except the new easing is taking place, for now, outside the United States, particularly in China.” Although the new money is primarily being created in China, it is flowing into dollars — the dollar index is up — and into US stocks. Last week, US stock markets once again made all-time record highs. In fact, I think but for the coronavirus, the US stock market would still be selling off. But because of the central bank stimulus that has been the result of fears over the coronavirus, that actually benefitted not only the US dollar, but the US stock market.” In the midst of all this, Peter raises a really good question. The primary economic concern is that coronavirus will slow down output and ultimately stunt economic growth. Practically speaking, the world would produce less stuff. If the virus continues to spread, there would be fewer goods and services produced in a market that is hunkered down. Why would the Federal Reserve respond, or why would any central bank respond to that by printing money? How does printing more money solve that problem? It doesn’t. In fact, it actually exacerbates it. But you know, everybody looks at central bankers as if they’ve got the solution to every problem. They don’t. They don’t have the magic wand. They just have a printing press. And all that creates is inflation.” Sometimes the illusion inflation creates can look like a magic wand. Printing money can paper over problems. But none of this is going to fundamentally fix the economy. In fact, if central bankers were really going to do the right thing, the appropriate response would be to drain liquidity from the markets, not supply even more.” Peter explained how the Fed was originally intended to create an “elastic” money supply that would expand or contract along with economic output. Today, the money supply only goes in one direction — that’s up. The economy is strong, print money. The economy is weak, print even more money.” Of course, the asset that’s doing the best right now is gold. The yellow metal pushed above $1,600 yesterday. Gold is up 5.5% on the year in dollar terms and has set record highs in other currencies. Because gold is rising even in an environment where the dollar is strengthening against other fiat currencies, that shows you that there is an underlying weakness in the dollar that is right now not being reflected in the Forex markets, but is being reflected in the gold markets. Because after all, why are people buying gold more aggressively than they’re buying dollars or more aggressively than they’re buying US Treasuries? Because they know that things are not as good for the dollar or the US economy as everybody likes to believe. So, more people are seeking out refuge in a better safe-haven and that is gold.” Peter also talked about the debate between Trump and Obama over who gets credit for the booming economy – which of course, is not booming.

We are living in crazy times. I have a hard time believing that most of the general public is not awake, but in reality, they are. We've never seen anything like this; I mean not even under Obama during the worst part of the Great Recession." Now the Fed is desperately trying to keep interest rates from rising. The problem is that it's a much bigger debt bubble this time around , and the Fed is going to have to blow a lot more air into it to keep it inflated. The difference is this time it's not going to work." It looks like the Fed did another $104.15 billion of Not Q.E. in a single day. The Fed claims it's only temporary. But that is precisely what Bernanke claimed when the Fed started QE1. Milton Freedman once said, "Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program." The same applies to Q.E., or whatever the Fed wants to pretend it's doing. Except this is not QE4, according to Powell. Right. Pumping so much money out, and they are accusing China of currency manipulation ? Wow! Seriously! Amazing! Dump the U.S. dollar while you still have a chance. Welcome to The Atlantis Report. And it is even worse than that, In addition to the $104.15 billion of "Not Q.E." this past Thursday; the FED added another $56.65 billion in liquidity to financial markets the next day on Friday. That's $160.8 billion in two days!!!! in just 48 hours. That is more than 2 TIMES the highest amount the FED has ever injected on a monthly basis under a Q.E. program (which was $80 billion per month) Since this isn't QE....it will be really scary on what they are going to call Q.E. Will it twice, three times, four times, five times what this injection per month ! It is going to be explosive since it takes about 60 to 90 days for prices to react to this, January should see significant inflation as prices soak up the excess liquidity. The question is, where will the inflation occur first . The spike in the repo rate might have a technical explanation: a misjudgment was made in the Fed's money market operations. Even so, two conclusions can be drawn: managing the money markets is becoming harder, and from now on, banks will be studying each other's creditworthiness to a greater degree than before. Those people, who struggle with the minutiae of money markets, and that includes most professionals, should focus on the causes and not the symptoms. Financial markets have recovered from each downturn since 1980 because interest rates have been cut to new lows. Post-2008, they were cut to near zero or below zero in all major economies. In response to a new financial crisis, they cannot go any lower. Central banks will look for new ways to replicate or broaden Q.E. (At some point, governments will simply see repression as an easier option). Then there is the problem of 'risk-free' assets becoming risky assets. Financial markets assume that the probability of major governments such as the U.S. or U.K. defaulting is zero. These governments are entering the next downturn with debt roughly twice the levels proportionate to GDP that was seen in 2008. The belief that the policy worked was completely predicated on the fact that it was temporary and that it was reversible, that the Fed was going to be able to normalize interest rates and shrink its balance sheet back down to pre-crisis levels. Well, when the balance sheet is five-trillion, six-trillion, seven-trillion when we're back at zero, when we're back in a recession, nobody is going to believe it is temporary. Nobody is going to believe that the Fed has this under control, that they can reverse this policy. And the dollar is going to crash. And when the dollar crashes, it's going to take the bond market with it, and we're going to have stagflation. We're going to have a deep recession with rising interest rates, and this whole thing is going to come imploding down. everything is temporary with the fed including remaining off the gold standard temporary in the Fed's eyes could mean at least 50 years This liquidity problem is a signal that trading desks are loaded up on inventory and can't get rid of it. Repo is done out of a need for cash. If you own all of your securities (i.e., a long-only, no leverage mutual fund) you have no need to "repo" your securities - you're earning interest every night so why would you want to 'repo' your securities where you are paying interest for that overnight loan (securities lending is another animal). So, it is those that 'lever-up' and need the cash for settlement purposes on securities they've bought with borrowed money that needs to utilize the repo desk. With this in mind, as we continue to see this need to obtain cash (again, needed to settle other securities purchases), it shows these firms don't have the capital to add more inventory to, what appears to be, a bloated inventory. Now comes the fun part: the Treasury is about to auction 3's, 10's, and 30-year bonds. If I am correct (again, I could be wrong), the Fed realizes securities firms don't have the shelf space to take down a good portion of these auctions. If there isn't enough retail/institutional demand, it will lead to not only a crappy sale but major concerns to the street that there is now no backstop, at all, to any sell-off. At which point, everyone will want to be the first one through the door and sell immediately, but to whom? If there isn't enough liquidity in the repo market to finance their positions, the firms would be unable to increase their inventory. We all saw repo shut down on the 2008 crisis. Wall St runs on money. . OVERNIGHT money. They lever up to inventory securities for trading. If they can't get overnight money, they can't purchase securities. And if they can't unload what they have, it means the buy-side isn't taking on more either. Accounts settle overnight. This includes things like payrolls and bill pay settlements. If a bank doesn't have enough cash to payout what its customers need to pay out, it borrows. At least one and probably more than one banks are insolvent. That's what's going on. First, it can't be one or two banks that are short. They'd simply call around until they found someone to lend. But they did that, and even at markedly elevated rates, still, NO ONE would lend them the money. That tells me that it's not a problem of a couple of borrowers, it's a problem of no lenders. And that means that there's no bank in the world left with any real liquidity. They are ALL maxed out. But as bad as that is, and that alone could be catastrophic, what it really signals is even worse. The lending rates are just the flip side of the coin of the value of the assets lent against. If the rates go up, the value goes down. And with rates spiking to 10%, how far does the value fall? Enormously! And if banks had to actually mark down the value of the assets to reflect 10% interest rates, then my god, every bank in the world is insolvent overnight. Everyone's capital ratios are in the toilet, and they'd have to liquidate. We're talking about the simultaneous insolvency of every bank on the planet. Bank runs. No money in ATMs, Branches closed. Safe deposit boxes confiscated. The whole nine yards, It's actually here. The scenario has tended to guide toward for years and years is actually happening RIGHT NOW! And people are still trying to say it's under control. Every bank in the world is currently insolvent. The only thing keeping it going is printing billions of dollars every day. Financial Armageddon isn't some far off future risk. It's here. Prepare accordingly. This fiat system has reached the end of the line, and it's not correct that fiat currencies fail by design. The problem is corruption and manipulation. It is corruption and cheating that erodes trust and faith until the entire system becomes a gigantic fraud. Banks and governments everywhere ARE the problem and simply have to be removed. They have lost all trust and respect, and all they have left is war and mayhem. As long as we continue to have a majority of braindead asleep imbeciles following orders from these psychopaths, nothing will change. Fiat currency is not just thievery. Fiat currency is SLAVERY. Ultimately the most harmful effect of using debt of undefined value as money (i.e., fiat currencies) is the de facto legalization of a caste system based on voluntary slavery. The bankers have a charter, or the legal *right*, to create money out of nothing. You, you don't. Therefore you and the bankers do not have the same standing before the law. The law of the land says that you will go to jail if you do the same thing (creating money out of thin air) that the banker does in full legality. You and the banker are not equal before the law. ALL the countries of the world; Islamic or secular, Jewish or Arab, democracy or dictatorship; all of them place the bankers ABOVE you. And all of you accept that only whining about fiat money going down in exchange value over time (price inflation which is not the same as monetary inflation). Actually, price inflation itself is mainly due to the greed and stupidity of the bankers who could keep fiat money's exchange value reasonably stable, only if they wanted to. Witness the crash of silver and gold prices which the bankers of the world; Russian, American, Chinese, Jewish, Indian, Arab, all of them collaborated to engineer through the suppression and stagnation of precious metals' prices to levels around the metals' production costs, or what it costs to dig gold and silver out of the ground. The bankers of the world could also collaborate to keep nominal prices steady (as they do in the case of the suppression of precious metals prices). After all, the ability to create fiat money and force its usage is a far more excellent source of power and wealth than that which is afforded simply by stealing it through inflation. The bankers' greed and stupidity blind them to this fact. They want it all, and they want it now. In conclusion, The bankers can create money out of nothing and buy your goods and services with this worthless fiat money, effectively for free. You, you can't. You, you have to lead miserable existences for the most of you and WORK in order to obtain that effectively nonexistent, worthless credit money (whose purchasing/exchange value is not even DEFINED thus rendering all contracts based on the null and void!) that the banker effortlessly creates out of thin air with a few strokes of the computer keyboard, and which he doesn't even bother to print on paper anymore, electing to keep it in its pure quantum uncertain form instead, as electrons whizzing about inside computer chips which will become mute and turn silent refusing to tell you how many fiat dollars or euros there are in which account, in the absence of electricity. No electricity, no fiat, nor crypto money. It would appear that trust is deteriorating as it did when Lehman blew up . Something really big happened that set off this chain reaction in the repo markets. Whatever that something is, we aren't be informed. They're trying to cover it up, paper it over with conjured cash injections, play it cool in front of the cameras while sweating profusely under the 5 thousands dollar suits. I'm guessing that the final high-speed plunge into global economic collapse has begun. All we see here is the ripples and whitewater churning the surface, but beneath the surface, there is an enormous beast thrashing desperately in its death throws. Now is probably the time to start tying up loose ends with the long-running prep projects, just saying. In other words, prepare accordingly, and Get your money out of the banks. I don't care if you don't believe me about Bitcoin. Get your money out of the banks. Don't keep any more money in a bank than you need to pay your bills and can afford to lose.











The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more













The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

The FBI released a summary of its file from the Hillary Clinton email investigation on Friday, showing details of Clinton's explanation of her use of a private email server to handle classified communications. The release comes nearly two months after FBI Director James Comey announced that although Clinton's handling of classified information was "extremely careless," it did not rise to the level of a prosecutable offense. Attorney General Loretta Lynch announced the next day that she would not pursue charges in the matter. "We are making these materials available to the public in the interest of transparency and in response to numerous Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests," the FBI noted in a statement sent to reporters with links to the documents. The documents include notes from Clinton's July 2 interview with agents, as well as a "factual summary of the FBI's investigation into this matter," according to the FBI release. Throughout her interview with agents, Clinton repeatedly said she relied on the career professionals she worked with to handle classified information correctly. The agents asked about a series of specific emails, and in each case Clinton said she wasn't worried about the particular material being discussed on a nonclassified channel.