Futures Slide, Oil Jumps After US Attacks Kharg Island Ahead Of Trump's 8pm Iran Deadline
US futures reversed earlier gains and oil advanced following reports that Iran's Kharg island was targeted earlier on Tuesday, while the market was largely paralyzed ahead of Trump’s 8pm ET deadline for Iran to agree to a ceasefire or face escalation. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.4%, and Nasdaq futures slide 0.6%. In premarket trading, all Mag7 names are lower even as AVGO (+3% pre-mkt) is bid after a TPU supply pact with GOOGL (+55bps) while ASML (-80bps) is weaker following a proposed US law that would further curb semiconductor exports to China (targeting ASML’s deep ultraviolet lithography machine ). Managed care is well bid after the final Medicare Advantage rate of +2.48% (vs ~1% bogey) was released last night (HUM +9%, CVS +7%, UNH +6%, ALHC +11%). Bond yields rise 1bp, 10Y TSY yield at 4.34%, the USD is also higher while commodities are mixed with oil reversing earlier losses and rising over 2%. Today’s macro data focus is weekly ADP, Durable / Cap Goods, and NY Fed 1-year Inflation Expectations. Ultimately, expect weaker volumes today with some market swings on unconfirmed ceasefire / deal chatter.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all lower (Alphabet -0.06%, Amazon -0.4%, Meta -0.6%, Microsoft -0.4%, Tesla -1.3%, Nvidia -1.2%, Apple -1%)
- Managed care companies including Humana gain after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services finalized a 2.48% rate hike for health insurers in 2027. Investors see the pay boost as a meaningful improvement over the initial rates the agency proposed in January. Humana (HUM) rises 9% and CVS Health gains 6%.
- Broadcom (AVGO) rises 3% after the chipmaker announced a long-term agreement with Google to develop and supply Tensor Processing Units. The companies also confirmed plans to work with Anthropic to power the AI startup’s burgeoning operations.
- Estée Lauder (EL) slips 1% after Spanish newspaper Expansion reported that the the company and Puig owning families are set to hold talks this week in New York over their potential merger.
- Organogenesis Holdings Inc. (ORGO) rises 19% after the company said a randomized controlled trial of 170 patients in a diabetic foot ulcer trial achieved its primary endpoint.
- Wingstop (WING) rises 1.9% as Citi upgrades the fried chicken restaurant operator to buy, saying the valuation offers an attractive entry point.
- Pershing Square proposed a combination with Universal Music Group that would move the listing into a US-based acquisition vehicle. It’s a deal that Bill Ackman’s fund said values the world’s biggest music label at a 78% premium to its last closing price.
In other news, Samsung reported preliminary operating profit that soared 755% to a record, with memory’s contribution estimated to be close to 90% of total operating profit. Rivals OpenAI, Anthropic, and Alphabet’s Google have begun working together to try to clamp down on Chinese competitors extracting results from cutting-edge US AI models. And Anthropic said its revenue run rate has now topped $30 billion, with more than 1,000 businesses spending over $1 million annually, a rate that has doubled since February. BlackRock is setting its sights on a corner of the $13.7 trillion US ETF industry long controlled by Invesco — tracking the Nasdaq 100 Index. Some Tiger Cub funds incurred losses in March. Maverick Capital’s Long Enhanced Fund and its main hedge fund tumbled 8.1% and 5%, respectively, while Viking Global Investors’ flagship fund lost 4.1%, according to people familiar with the matter.
Trump has threatened “all Hell” will rain down on Iran if it doesn’t agree to a ceasefire that reopens the Strait of Hormuz by 8 p.m. Eastern time. The Pentagon canceled the morning press briefing due to be led by Pete Hegseth, giving no reason. WSJ reported last night that hope is fading for a final deal by the deadline and RTRS reported this morning that a Senior Iranian Source said Tehran has rejected any temporary ceasefire with the U.S. and the IRGC warned neighboring countries “restraint is over” and threatened to disrupt regional oil and gas supplies for years to come. Strikes continued overnight.
“It seems clear that it is extraordinarily difficult to invest on expectations for binary outcomes,” notes Jeffrey Palma at Cohen & Steers. On the other hand, David Kruk at La Financiere de l’Echiquier, set out the dilemma confronting traders, observing that the “market is now set up in such a way that the real pain trade is upwards.”
Investors are watching for any sign of a breakthrough amid a flurry of diplomacy before the 8 p.m. Eastern Time deadline. Trump insists any deal must ensure uninterrupted transit through the Strait of Hormuz — a key artery for Middle East oil flows. He’s threatened to destroy Iran’s bridges and power plants if no accord is reached. “The market remains volatile,” said Wolf von Rotberg, equity strategist at Bank J Safra Sarasin. “It continues to swing between de-escalation hopes and Trump following through on his threats.”
Oil remains in focus, with WTI crude rising to the highest since June 2022. Meanwhile, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts expressed caution over the wide gap between the Brent spot price, which reflects expectations of a resolution, and Dated Brent, which represents actual cargoes assigned specific loading dates. At above $140, the latter signals acute spot scarcity.
Trump’s deadline marks the latest pivotal moment in the war, which has killed thousands of people and triggered the largest-ever disruption to the global oil market. Israel told Iranians to refrain from using their country’s railway network until 9 p.m. local time, the first warning about such infrastructure that usually precedes an attack. Iran launched seven ballistic missiles and several more drones at Saudi Arabia overnight into Tuesday, while the Israel Defense Forces reported two missile volleys from Iran since midnight.
Meanwhile, the technology sector is looking increasingly attractive for investors as valuations fall below those of the wider stock market, according to Goldman strategists. Any lasting shock to the global economy from the war in Iran is also likely to benefit the sector as tech cash flows are less sensitive to economic growth, the strategists said.
The recent economic numbers aren’t boosting the case for the Federal Reserve to resume cutting rates anytime soon. March CPI on Friday is predicted to show the largest month-over-month increase in headline inflation since June 2022, largely driven by a spike in gasoline prices tied to the Iran conflict.
Europe's Stoxx 600 is up by 0.6%, with the media subindex leading the way on a jump for Universal Music on a €56 billion takeover proposal. UMG is the biggest gainer after Pershing Square offered to buy the entertainment company, while tech underperforms, weighed down by ASML as US lawmakers propose tighter curbs on chip equipment exports to China. Here are the biggest movers:
- Universal Music Group shares rise as much as 24% in Amsterdam, but trade well below the value of an offer from Pershing Square Capital Management amid doubt over whether the deal will happen
- JCDecaux rises as much as 5.8% as TD Cowen upgrades the outdoor advertising company to buy from hold, seeing a clear inflection point as China returns to growth
- Volati gains as much as 7.2%, the most since November, as Nordea reiterates its buy rating and raises its price target on the Swedish industrial group, saying the company is well-positioned to benefit from a cyclical rebound
- ASML shares fall as much as 4.7% on Tuesday after US lawmakers unveiled legislation aimed at tightening restrictions on chip tool exports to China. The goal is to subject Dutch and Japanese firms to the same curbs that American companies face
- Leonardo shares fall as much as 5.5% on the possibility of a management change at the Italian defense group; Bloomberg News reported that CEO Roberto Cingolani could be replaced as soon as this week
- AddTech falls as much as 5.9% after DNB Carnegie downgraded the stock to hold from buy, saying the Swedish industrial equipment maker could face weakening earnings growth momentum in 4Q
- Ninety One tumbles as much as 14% as BofA Global Research downgrades its rating on the investment management firm to neutral from buy and cuts its target price to 260p from 280p because of lower expected market returns
- Colruyt drops as much as 4.3%, biggest decliner in Belgium’s BEL Mid Index, after UBS downgraded the stock to neutral from buy, saying it looks “fairly valued for modest growth”
Asian stocks advanced for a third-straight session even as the approach of President Donald Trump’s deadline for a peace deal with Iran kept traders on edge. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1%, with technology shares including TSMC and SK Hynix among the biggest boosts. Stocks climbed in Taiwan and Australia. Hong Kong’s market remained shut for holidays. Stocks also gained in India, while equities traded mixed in Japan, China and much of Southeast Asia. South Korea’s Kospi climbed after better-than-expected results from Samsung Electronics.
“While oil prices remain elevated for now, there is a strong view that the conflict will come to an end within the next one to two weeks, with crude prices returning to prior levels,” said Hideyuki Ishiguro, chief strategist at Nomura Asset Management. “Geopolitical risks themselves have not been resolved, but VIX in Japan, US, and Europe have peaked, suggesting that markets may have largely priced in these risks,” he added.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises by 0.1%, with Aussie dollar and sterling the outperformers and Swedish krona lagging after a surprise cooling in inflation.
In rates, treasury futures hold small losses after erasing gains amid rising oil prices, with yields across tenors slightly higher on the day. US 10-year yield is less than 1bp higher near 4.34%, and curve spreads are within a basis point of Monday’s closing levels. With European bond markets open for first time since Thursday, German and UK yields are 2bp-5bp cheaper across flatter curves. The US session includes the first of this week’s three Treasury coupon auctions, a 3-year note sale at 1pm. Treasury’s $58 billion 3-year new-issue auction, to be followed by $39 billion 10-year and $22 billion 30-year reopenings Wednesday and Thursday, has WI yield near 3.895%, about 32bp cheaper than last month’s, which tailed by 1.1bp, a notably poor result.
In commodities, WTI crude oil futures are up about 2% from Monday’s multiyear high close, which followed Trump’s threat to obliterate key Iranian infrastructure if an agreement to end the war isn’t reached by 8pm Tuesday. Gold prices up, though paring back from highs near $4,700/oz.
US event calendar, includes ADP weekly employment change (8:15am), February durable goods orders (8:30am), March New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations (11am) and February consumer credit (3pm). Fed speaker slate includes Williams (8:30am), Goolsbee (12:35pm, 1:45pm) and Jefferson (5:50pm)
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 mini -0.6%,
- Nasdaq 100 mini -0.7%,
- Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
- Stoxx Europe 600 +0.3%
- DAX +0.5%
- CAC 40 +1.0%
- 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.34%
- VIX +0.3 points at 24.48
- Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1211.85
- euro +0.3% at $1.1571
- WTI crude -0.4% at $111.97/barrel
Top Overnight News
- Negotiators are pessimistic Iran will bend to meet President Trump’s demand to reopen the Strait of Hormuz before his Tuesday-night deadline, paving the way for the U.S. to target Iranian bridges and power plants in a fresh escalation of the war. Twice in his second term, Trump set a deadline for a deal with Iran, said he would bomb the country if its leaders didn’t comply, then followed through with military operations. WSJ
- Airstrikes pounded Tehran on Tuesday, and Iranian officials urged young people to form human chains to protect power plants, hours before the expiration of U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest deadline for the Islamic Republic to reopen the crucial Strait of Hormuz or face punishing strikes on its infrastructure. AP
- Iran on Monday delivered a 10 point proposal to end the war with the US and Israel. The plan was conveyed by Pakistan, which has been acting as a primary intermediary, but appeared unlikely to resolve major questions ahead of Trump’s Tuesday evening deadline for new attacks on Iran. NYT
- A cross-party group of U.S. politicians have proposed a law to impose further restrictions on exports of computer chipmaking equipment to China, affecting companies such as ASML and China's top chipmakers. RTRS
- Japan’s households reduced spending for a third straight month even after real wages turned positive. Outlays by households adjusted for inflation fell 1.8% in February from a year earlier, a faster decline compared with January’s 1% retreat. Real consumption remains weak, with economists citing growing consumer fatigue and inflation pressure as key challenges to domestic demand. BBG
- Taiwan’s opposition leader is set to arrive in China on Tuesday on what she has called a “historic journey for peace” as she hopes for a face-to-face meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, the first such contact in a decade. FT
- Anthropic’s revenue run rate has topped $30 billion and the company confirmed partnerships with Broadcom and Google. BBG
- Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee both see inflation as a far bigger problem than employment, underscoring their support for tighter rather than looser monetary policy as the Iran war puts upward pressure on energy prices and the job market remains stuck in low gear. RTRS
- Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square offered to buy Universal Music Group in a cash-and-stock deal at a 78% premium to Thursday’s closing price. Ackman cited UMG’s stock underperformance as a trigger for the bid. BBG
- Republicans are reportedly weighing how broadly to structure a party-line bill to fund President Trump’s immigration enforcement, with some senators seeking multi-year DHS funding and others favoring a narrower ICE and CBP measure: Semafor
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded cautiously following the positive lead from the US and with all focus remaining on geopolitics heading into US President Trump's Tuesday evening deadline for Iran to open up the Strait of Hormuz or face the US destroying its power plants and bridges, although President Trump had also previously stated that he thinks talks are going well with Iran and they would like to be able to make a deal. ASX 200 rallied with tech and miners leading the upside and with almost all sectors in the green aside from industrials and consumer staples. Nikkei 225 failed to sustain its initial advances with the index pressured amid headwinds from higher oil prices and following disappointing Household Spending data. KOSPI surged at the open with strong gains in Samsung Electronics after its preliminary results topped forecasts and showed around an eight-fold jump in Q1 operating profit, although most of the advances were then pared as shares in the index heavyweight also pulled back. Shanghai Comp lacked conviction on return from the long weekend, with upside limited after another meek PBoC liquidity operation and with the Stock Connect still closed as Hong Kong markets remained shut.
Top Asian News
- Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said won't comment on JGB yield levels and will refrain from commenting on levels in the markets, adds impact of Middle East and oil prices on the market is high.
- Chinese President Xi called for new energy system as war on Iran rocks global economy and said China needs to accelerate planning and construction of a new energy system to ensure the country’s energy security.
- South Korean FX Chief said are to deploy bold measures in the FX market, if needed.
- South Korea policy chief Kim said the chip industry secures four month's worth of helium and it is premature to discuss a second extra budget.
- Morgan Stanley cuts its China 2026 GDP growth forecast to 4.7% due to oil shock.
European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.7%) re-open from the 4-day Easter closure with mild gains, as traders countdown to Trump's Iran deadline at 20:00EDT/01:00BST. France's CAC 40 outperforms its peers, while the FTSE 100 underperforms. Worth noting that European indices opened mixed, but then moved higher, without a clear driver. Some may point to reports via a Pakistani journalist which suggested that a "framework of understanding for ceasefire" between US and Iran is “closer than ever”. European sectors are broadly in the green. Media is the clear outperformer, driven by gains in UMG (+12.2%) after Pershing Square announced a EUR 9.4bln bid to take over the media company. Technology sits at the bottom of the pile. Despite the majority of the sector components in the green, ASML (-2.3%) is weighing on the sector. This comes following a group of US politicians proposing a law to impose further export restrictions on computer chipmaking equipment to China.
Top European News
- UK S&P Global Services PMI Final (Mar) 50.5 vs. Exp. 51.2 (Prev. 53.9). "Stagflation risks appear to have increased, with the final Services PMI data signalling slower growth and higher cost pressures than the earlier 'flash' estimates based on data compiled up to 20th March."
- UK S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Mar) 50.3 vs. Exp. 51 (Prev. 53.7).
- EU S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Mar) 50.7 vs. Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 51.9). "The near-stalling of growth in March drags the PMI’s signal for first quarter GDP growth down to 0.2%. More worrying is that there are clear risks of the economy contracting in the second quarter unless there is a swift resolution to the conflict."
- EU S&P Global Services PMI Final (Mar) 50.2 vs. Exp. 50.1 (Prev. 51.9).
- German S&P Global Services PMI Final (Mar) 50.9 vs. Exp. 51.2 (Prev. 53.5).
- German S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Mar) 51.9 vs. Exp. 51.9 (Prev. 53.2).
- French S&P Global Services PMI Final (Mar) 48.8 vs. Exp. 48.3 (Prev. 49.6).
- French S&P Global Composite PMI Final (Mar) 48.8 vs. Exp. 48.3 (Prev. 49.9).
FX
- FX markets saw a sharp risk-on move in the European morning, with no specific headline, but several outlets reporting optimism in US/Iran negotiations ahead of Tuesday's deadline. DXY fell as much as 0.2% from 100.04 to a trough of 99.77, and high-beta FX was helped against the weaker buck, with Aussie the outperformer and Sterling also performing notably well.
- Some participants flagged an Axios article six hours before the move, which quoted a US official, "If the president sees a deal is coming together, he'll probably hold off..." it is unclear whether this led to the reaction, though other reports following this initial move have added to the constructive risk environment, "mediators are close to reaching an agreement" on a "framework of understanding for ceasefire", according to Pakistani reporter Anas Mallick.
- Elsewhere, EUR and GBP were unreactive to mixed European Final PMIs. To recap, the EZ wide composite and services were revised a touch higher while the UK's were revised lower.
- The session ahead sees US ADP Employment Change Weekly, US Durable Goods RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (Apr), Atlanta Fed GDP and President Trump's Iran deadline. Fed speak is expected from Fed's Williams (13:30 BST), Goolsbee (17:35 BST) and Jefferson (22:50 BST). Full primer on the Newsquawk headline feed.
Central Banks
- ECB's Wunsch said he is open to an interest rate rise at the April meeting; a lasting crisis would warrant a series of rate rises.
- ECB's Radev said the ECB must be ready to act if inflation persists, sees a rising likelihood of adverse scenario but too early to say if April rate hike is needed. Inflation expectations at risk of rising too quickly.
Fixed Income
- Initial bearish bias across the fixed income was facilitated by stronger energy prices, as the geopolitical environment remains exceptionally turbulent and as traders count down their clocks to President Trump’s 20:00EDT Iran deadline. However, in recent trade the crude complex took a tumble – but lacked a clear driver. Some market participants pointed towards an Axios piece from overnight, which reported that Trump may hold off from strikes on Iran if he sees a “deal coming together”. Markets also appear to be digesting some relatively positive mood from the Pakistani side, with a couple analysts suggesting a breakthrough could be close; whilst another suggested that a “framework of understanding” for a ceasefire is close. The pressure in energy prices therefore helped to boost fixed benchmarks to session highs.
- USTs were initially lower and were holding near troughs throughout the early portion of the morning, before then surging alongside the pressure in the crude complex. Currently holding at the upper end of a 110-21+ to 110-29+ range. On the data front, weekly ADP jobs figures, durable goods orders for February. On today’s speakers’ slate, Fed's Williams (voter) will speak on Bloomberg TV; Fed’s Goolsbee (2027 voter, dovish) will speak on the outlook for policy and the economy; Fed’s Vice Chair Jefferson (voter, dovish) will speak on the economic outlook and the labour market.
- Bunds followed the above, and currently holding at the upper end of a 125.31-125.73 range – though still remains incrementally in the red. Geopols aside, German benchmarks have had a number of European PMI Final metrics to digest; Spain topped expectations, Italy missed whilst the EZ-wide figure was revised incrementally higher. Interesting commentary from within the German release suggested that, “the lack of pricing power in the service sector is important from a monetary policy perspective, as it limits the amount of upward pressure on core inflation, a measure that the ECB will be closely watching when considering interest rate increases.”
- Gilts are currently flat. As above, initially weighed by stronger energy prices, but UK paper then soared to highs as energy prices dipped. Currently towards the upper end of a 88.23-88.72 range. UK PMI Finals were revised lower, with analysts citing slower output growth as a result of the war in the Middle East. It also highlighted increasing risks to “stagflation”, and increasing costs pressures.
Commodities
- Crude futures gained at the start of the APAC session and held onto gains as European traders stepped in as US President Trump's 20:00EDT deadline approaches. If Iran does not agree to a ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, he said the US will decimate Iran's bridges and didn't rule out striking power plants. However, Trump did also state that he thinks talks are going well and that Iran has "an active and willing participant on the other side." Further reporting throughout the European morning indicates that an agreement could be near, with Pakistani reporter Mallick suggesting that the interlocutors are 'closer than ever for an agreement' to get a "framework of understanding for ceasefire" between the US and Iran.
- WTI and Brent topped at USD 116.56/bbl and USD 111.80/bbl, respectively, before sinking – a move which lacked a clear driver. However, the move appeared to follow the aforementioned reports from the Pakistani reporter. At the time of writing, WTI May'26 has returned below USD 113/bbl while Brent Jun'26 oscillates on either side of USD 110/bbl.
- Spot gold trades relatively contained within a USD 4617-4691/oz range. Upticks have picked up pace in recent trade as the USD softens amid downside in energy prices. However, the 20-SMA at USD 4,732/oz and last week's high of USD 4,800/oz remain as near-term resistance levels. To add, China added gold to its reserves for a 17th consecutive month, highlighting that demand for the yellow metal is still high. However, UBS lowered its end-June forecast to USD 5,200/oz due to softer investor demand.
- 3M LME copper is rangebound, oscillating in a USD 12.37k-12.46k/t range. This comes as participants remain cautious as the Trump deadline looms.
- Hungary to agree to buy oil from US at Orban-Vance meeting, Bloomberg reported. Hungary’s Mol will agree to purchase 500,000 tons for approximately USD 500mln.
- Kazakhstan's Energy Ministry said the oil shipments via CPC pipeline is stable, IFX reported.
- IRGC's public relations channel reported of "explosion and extensive damage to the Al-Jubeil industrial area".
- Attacks reportedly hit Saudi Aramco's petrochemical plant in Saudi Arabia, AFP reported citing sources.
- China has provided Iran with a financial lifeline during the past half decade by purchasing most of its oil, according to WSJ.
- Tanker explosion near the Bridge of Americas in Panama City caused a massive fire.
- Japan's Industry Minister Akazawa said crude oil procurement is progressing.
- China gold reserves at end-March (USD) 342.76bln (prev. 387.59bln).
- UBS lowers end-June gold forecast to USD 5,200/oz, amid softer investor demand amid elevated volatility.
- Goldman Sachs analyst raises 2026 copper price forecast to USD 12,650/ton from USD 11,400/ton and expects copper prices to remain volatile as the market continues to assess impacts of the events in the Middle East on economic growth.
Geopolitics
- Pakistani reporter Anas Mallick suggests that, "to my understanding, the interlocutors (Pakistan, Turkiye and Egypt) are 'closer than ever for an agreement' to get a "framework of understanding for ceasefire" between US and Iran".
- Some geopolitical analysts say signals from Pakistan suggest a possible breakthrough in the coming hours, with Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and reportedly Beijing involved. said that a ceasefire could be near, but the situation remains early and fragile, so caution is warranted.
- Pakistan in last-minute efforts, along with Turkey and Egypt, to convince Iran to agree to the outline proposed by Pakistan, according to I24's Stein.
- Five friendly countries leaders' and eight intelligence agencies have reached out to Iran seeking to open a path for a ceasefire, Fars News reported.
- Israeli Source tells N12 news "The next 24 hours are the most decisive in the war, if it were up to political leadership in Iran, there would have been a ceasefire long ago, there is doubt about their control", N12's Segal reported.
- Iran's Spokesperson of the National Security Commission of the Parliament said "we are making special arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz", via Tasnim.
- Spokesman of Iran's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of Parliament said oil exports are going on as usual, and with even more capacity than before, IRIB reported.
- Iran atomic agency said heavy bombs won't halt nuclear tech progress.
- China has provided Iran with a financial lifeline during the past half decade by purchasing most of its oil, according to WSJ.
- Saudi Arabia, UAE and Israel report Iranian drone and missile attacks, according to CBS.
- Israel announces a new wave of strikes on Iran and issues incoming missile alert.
- Iran launches new batch of missiles towards southern Israel.
- Israeli military said it completed airstrike wave aiming to damage Iranian terror regime infrastructure in Tehran and additional areas across Iran.
- US House Democrat Ansari intends to introduce articles of impeachment against Secretary of War Hegseth, cites Iran war and war crimes as grounds for Hegseth impeachment, according to NBC.
- Japanese PM Takaichi said in parliament said in Parliament, want to take next step in talks with Iran and is strongly urging Iran to allow Hormuz safe passage, while she is seeking phone talks with the presidents of US and Iran.
- Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf's adviser Mohammadi said it is Trump who has about 20 hours to either surrender to Iran or his allies will return to the Stone Age, while he added that they will not back down.
- Iran said non-hostile countries can coordinate access to the Strait of Hormuz, according to Press TV.
- US Vice President J.D. Vance is on standby for Iran negotiations, according to POLITICO. "The negotiations are led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner but Vance could be tagged in if there is a direct meeting with Iranian officials.".
- Iran's top joint military command said Trump's threats are 'delusional' and his threat have no effect on operations against US and Israel.
- US data centres of Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL), and Equinix (EQIX) in the UAE are now identified as potential targets for Iran's counter response in the region.
- Iranian securities exchange chief outlines conditions needed to reopen the Iranian capital markets: said outcomes could include a ceasefire with a formal agreement and full reopening, or a ceasefire without agreement and a gradual reopening.
- Explosions reported in eastern regions of Saudi Arabia and alarms sounding in Bahrain, Tasnim reported.
- Israeli reporter Stein said "Unexpectedly: the press conference planned for today with Defence Minister Hegseth and US Chief of Staff was cancelled".
- Fars news citing an informed source said "Trump is clearly looking for a meeting and an agreement. The American proposal includes the removal of "Witkoff" due to his closeness to Netanyahu's circle and negotiations with "Vance" to build a serious path. In the end, this source noted: Americans believe that fuel prices will increase explosively from next week and are not willing to accept this risk.
- The Iranian Ambassador to Pakistan said Pakistan's positive and productive attempt to step the war is approaching a critical and sensitive stage.
- Iranian outlets report that Yazd and Shiraz were shaken by blasts.
- Large barrage of missiles were reportedly headed for Bahrain, with air raid sirens and alerts in multiple areas.
- Drone strike reportedly hit US Victoria base in Baghdad, according to Iraqi sources cited by Fars.
- Missiles hit Saudi Arabia's Jubail which is largest industrial hub in the Middle East where large petrochemical and energy facilities are located.
- IRGC Aerospace Force Commander said they targeted the oil refinery, power plants, ports, and railway lines in Haifa Bay, and no interception of our missiles was recorded, Al Jazeera reported.
- Russia's Yamal LNG ships first cargo to China since November, LSEG data shows.
- Russia's Ministry of Defence reported that air defence forces have downed 45 Ukrainian drones over Russian regions overnight.
US Event Calendar
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
US and Asia markets had a decent start to the week yesterday while Europe was off for Easter Monday. However, sentiment has turned more cautious this morning as investors grapple with President Trump’s new deadline of 8pm Eastern Time tonight (1am London) for Iran to agree a deal as he threated to destroy Iran’s bridges and power plants. The renewed escalation threat has seen Brent crude move back above $111/bbl this morning after trading as low $107/bbl yesterday. In turn, S&P 500 futures are down -0.44% overnight after posting a fourth consecutive advance (+0.44%) yesterday that saw the index erase half of its decline since the Iran strikes began.
In terms of Trump’s latest ultimatum to Iran, the US President shared the 8pm ET Tuesday deadline on social media on Sunday and then referred to it several times yesterday as he demanded that Iran strikes a deal that “that's acceptable to me”, while threatening intensified attacks against Iran that would destroy “every bridge” and take “every power plant” out of business. Notably, Trump said that a deal should include “free traffic of oil”, calling reopening the Strait of Hormuz “a very big priority”. So a seeming shift from previous suggestions that reopening the straits was not a core objective for the US. The President repeatedly suggested that this evening’s deadline was final, saying that he was “highly unlikely” to postpone it. Recall that Trump had issued an initial 48-hour ultimatum for striking Iran’s power plants back on March 21, first extending this by 5 days and then followed by another 10-day pause that had been due to expire yesterday.
Earlier yesterday, we had heard various reports on talks as other countries in the region have pushed for a ceasefire deal. Iran’s state-run IRNA then reported that Tehran rejected a ceasefire via Pakistani mediators, instead demanding a permanent end to the war as well as lifting of sanctions, reconstruction efforts and a protocol for safe passage through Hormuz. Meanwhile, Trump called Iran’s proposals a “very significant step” but “not good enough” as he threatened the escalatory strikes.
So that left oil markets facing crosswinds from Trump’s escalation threat to possible ceasefire talks as well as news that shipping via the Strait of Hormuz has been edging higher in recent days. Iran said on Saturday that “brotherly” Iraq would be exempt from shipping restrictions in the Strait, and AIS data showed five tankers crossing the Strait that day (possible that more did so with transponders turned off). That was the most since March 1 but still a small fraction of the roughly 60 tankers a day before the war.
Brent crude whipsawed in a relatively tight range yesterday, falling from above $111/bbl at yesterday’s open to as low as $107/bbl early in European hours before closing +0.68% on the day at $109.77/bbl. It is another +1.67% higher at $111.60/bbl as I type.
With oil markets relatively stable, risk assets had a decent start to the week, with the S&P 500 (+0.44%) advancing for a fourth session in a row yesterday, its longest run since January. That left the S&P 500 up +4.22% from last Monday’s closing low, erasing around half of the -7.78% decline it had seen since February 27. The NASDAQ (+0.54%) and the Mag-7 (+0.28%) saw similar gains, while nearly two thirds of the S&P 500 constituents moved higher on Monday with cyclical sectors outperforming. Private investment companies including Apollo (-0.87%) and Blackstone (-0.72%) underperformed amid lingering concerns about private credit. By contrast, US HY credit spreads tightened by -8bps to 291bps, their lowest level since March 5.
In Asia this morning, the Nikkei (-0.38%) is down following a +0.55% increase yesterday after softer Japan household spending data (-1.8% YoY vs -0.8% expected) which posted a third consecutive year-over-year decline in February. Meanwhile, the KOSPI (+0.30%) is continuing its upward trend after a +1.36% rise on Monday. Samsung Electronics was up as much as +4.9% at the open as it projected record quarterly profits due to strong AI chip demand, but its stock is now down -1.98% as I type. Elsewhere, the S&P/ASX 200 (+1.43%) is significantly higher this morning, while the CSI (-0.29%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.03%) are more subdued. In the US, S&P 500 futures (-0.44%) have lost ground overnight, whereas Euro STOXX 50 (+0.13%) futures are edging higher after yesterday’s US advance.
In terms of yesterday’s other news, the March ISM services release in the US highlighted the inflationary risks stemming from the Iran war. While the headline reading retreated from a post-2022 high of 56.1 to 54.0 (vs. 54.9 expected), the prices paid component saw a stronger-than-expected rise to 70.7, its highest since October 2022. And there were contrasting signals within the details, as new orders rose to a 3-year high of 60.6, but employment fell to a 2-year low of 45.2. Amid this mixed data, the Treasury curve saw a modest flattening yesterday, with the 2yr yield up +0.8bps to 3.85% but 10yr down -1.3bps to 4.33%.
Treasury yields had seen a sizeable rise in Friday’s shortened session, with 2yr up +4.4bps and 10yr up +3.9bps following the strong March employment report. The release saw both headline (+178k vs +65k expected) and private (+186k vs. 78k expected) payrolls come in far above consensus expectations, with the unemployment rate also dropping from 4.44% to 4.29% (vs. 4.4% expected). To be sure, the rebound from strike- and weather-related weakness in February payrolls played a role, with the earlier timing of Easter also possibly bringing forward some payroll gains at the expense of April. Still, averaging through the Q1 employment reports, headline (+68k) and private (+79k) payrolls have been running above estimates of breakeven job gains and well above their subdued pace in late 2025, easing concerns on the employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate.
Turning to the week ahead, the data highlight will be the March CPI print in the US on Friday where the impact of the energy price shock will be on full display. Our economists expect a roughly 25% increase in gasoline prices to yield a 0.95% monthly gain in headline CPI, raising the annual rate from +2.4% to +3.4%, while core inflation sees a more moderate +0.33% monthly rise. The March CPI reading will also be preceded by the February core PCE inflation print on Thursday, which we expect at +0.39% MoM. That would mark the highest monthly print since last February and bring the 3- and 6-month annualised rates of the Fed’s preferred inflation metric up to 4.5% and 3.5% respectively.
Other notable US data releases this week include the March NY Fed inflation expectations survey and February durable goods orders today as well as the University of Michigan consumer sentiment on Friday. Elsewhere, we have the Euro Area final March services PMIs (today), Germany’s February factory orders (Wednesday) and industrial production (Thursday), and the March inflation reports in China (Friday). From central banks, Wednesday will see the March FOMC minutes and a rates decision in New Zealand (our economists expect a hold). See the full day-by-day rundown below.
And while Iran headlines will dominate the geopolitical news, we also have NATO Secretary General Rutte scheduled to meet with Trump in Washington tomorrow in a visit that comes amid Trump’s vocal criticism of NATO allies over their stance on the Iran war.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 04/07/2026 - 08:30
USAF file image
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel 
Recent comments