Individual Economists

10 Tuesday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

My morning train reads:

Bill Pulte: Agent of Chaos: In an administration hardly known for competence, coherence and subtlety, Pulte stands out. When Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly threatened to punch Pulte “in your fucking face” and to “fucking beat your ass”, it was mostly notable for how many people both inside and outside the administration were seemingly #TeamBessent. (Financial Times)

Is the Iranian Regime About to Collapse? Five conditions determine whether revolutions succeed. For the first time since 1979, Iran meets nearly all of them. (The Atlantic) see also Weakened by War, Iran’s Regime Faces Its Toughest Challenge Yet: Iranian leaders’ last claim to legitimacy was shattered in the war with Israel (Wall Street Journal) see also Death Toll in Iran May Already Be in the Thousands: To account for what it called a “significant” death toll, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Sunday raised the specter of ISIS, claiming in a statement that slain protesters were terrorists hired by Israel and the U.S. (Time)

How Google Got Its Groove Back and Edged Ahead of OpenAI: After ChatGPT dominated early chatbot market, Google staged comeback with powerful AI model; biggest search-engine overhaul in years. (Wall Street Journal)

GE’s CEO Has Saved the House That Jack Welch Built: Shares of General Electric Co. have jumped out of the gate this year faster than the gains of the S&P 500 Index. That doesn’t sound like a stellar achievement unless you consider that the stock has already surged sixfold in the last three years. The fact that GE’s turnaround still has legs is testament to the talent of Chief Executive Officer Larry Culp, who took over a legendary company that was in deep trouble in 2018 and rescued it. (Bloomberg)

• Big Oil Knows That Trump’s Venezuela Plans Are Delusional: The president’s thinking is stuck in the 1980s. (The Atlantic)

Americans Predict Challenging 2026 Across 13 Dimensions: Only the stock market evokes optimism from a majority in the U.S. (Gallup)

Why Trump wants Greenland and what’s standing in his way: Denmark’s leader warned that any use of force by Washington to seize Greenland, as Trump officials have suggested, would render the postwar NATO alliance defunct. (Washington Post)

My Playdate With the Watch Nerds: 48 Hours at the Watch Convention: A Casio man in a Rolex world crashes the convention where guys trade six-figure grails for fun. (The Cut)

Grok Is Generating Sexual Content Far More Graphic Than What’s on X: A review of outputs hosted on Grok’s official website shows it’s being used to create violent sexual images and videos, as well as content that includes apparent minors. (Wired)

How Amy Poehler’s ‘Good Hang’ broke through celebrity podcast fatigue: The market was saturated with stars chatting with other stars. But the ‘SNL’ veteran channeled the old magic of late-night TV talk shows. Now she’s a favorite in a new Golden Globe category. (Washington Post)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Ben Hunt, founder of Perscient, a firm that studies how narratives and stories shape markets, investing, and social behavior through the lens of information theory, game theory, and unstructured data analysis. His work analyzes the language, story arcs, and viral spread of explanations in media.

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

 

The post 10 Tuesday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Eastern Mediterranean Geopolitics Are Becoming More Complex

Zero Hedge -

Eastern Mediterranean Geopolitics Are Becoming More Complex

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

Tensions are growing between Turkiye-Pakistan and Israel-Cyprus-Greece...

Stability in the Eastern Mediterranean can no longer be taken for granted as a result of three recent developments:

1) the growing Turkish-Israeli rivalry in post-Assad Syria;

2) Israel’s reported plans to establish a rapid response force with Cyprus and Greece; and

3) Turkish ally Pakistan’s new military ties with Eastern Libya’s General Khalifa Haftar. The aforesaid are unfolding amidst Israel’s plans for an underwater EastMed gas pipeline to Greece and Turkiye’s maritime claims that cut right across its route.

The reported rapid response force could accordingly be assembled to defend the EastMed if construction on it were to begin while Pakistan might establish a military presence in Eastern Libya under the cover of training Haftar’s forces for complementing Turkiye’s in Western Libya so as to help Ankara counter this. Unaware observers should review this article here to learn more about the rapprochement between Turkiye and Haftar, previously enemies, which advances the former’s abovementioned maritime claims.

The Turkish-Pakistani Tandem (TPT) might not directly clash with Israel over the EastMed, at least not at first, since it’s much more likely that Turkiye would initially pressure it in Syria while Pakistan stirs trouble on its behalf at sea (perhaps with drones) through its potential military presence in Eastern Libya. The purpose would be to keep tensions manageable and “plausibly deniable”. That would be difficult to do if they targeted NATO member Greece, however, which could backfire by rallying the bloc around it.

For that reason, TPT would probably employ low-level and “plausibly deniable” hybrid provocations against Israel in the first stage, though Israel would be expected to call them out on this if it happens. It’s not possible to accurately forecast what might follow but it’s sufficient to predict that Israel likely wouldn’t back down since it rarely does so under military pressure. A conventional escalation might therefore be in the cards and that could in turn set the entire region aflame if it spirals out of control.

Turkiye’s interest in involving Pakistan in this dispute wouldn’t just be to diffuse responsibility for any escalation over its maritime claims but to have the support of the only Muslim nuclear power in order to deter Israel from responding in a way that risks a war between them. For its part, Pakistan would probably be happy to saber-rattle against Israel since this would play well domestically, but it understandably wouldn’t want Israel to force its hand into fighting a conventional war or backing down.

Any serious escalation between TPT and Israel would assuredly lead to an American diplomatic intervention given that all three are its close partners. Which side the US would support, however, remains unclear. While Israel is one of its most special partners, the EastMed pipeline could challenge the US’ newfound energy hegemony over the EU, so the argument can be made that it might prefer to impose a compromise whereby Israel supplies Turkiye with gas just like it’s poised to supply Egypt.

If Syria joins the Abraham Accords, then a pipeline could be built across its territory from Israel to Turkiye, while Lebanon could be involved as well if it too signs onto the accords. Even without that happening, an underwater pipeline could connect Israel’s offshore gas fields with Turkiye, which would strengthen their complex interdependence for reducing the risk of conflict.

That would be the best-case scenario from the US’ perspective for resolving Turkish-Israeli tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 05:00

Le Pen's Political Future Hangs In The Balance As Appeal Begins This Week

Zero Hedge -

Le Pen's Political Future Hangs In The Balance As Appeal Begins This Week

The political future of Marine Le Pen hinges on a crucial appeal in Paris this week that will determine whether she can run in the 2027 presidential election, after she was barred from public office over misusing 4 million euros of EU funds. 

Marine Le Pen, pictured in Dec. 2024 at her party's offices in the National Assembly. (via El Pais)

Le Pen, who leads France's populist National Rally (RN) party, was sentenced to four years in prison (two suspended, two under house arrest which are on hold during her appeal) and banned from political office for five years, effectively disqualifying her from the 2027 election. She was also fined €100,000. In last March's ruling, Le Pen and her co-defendants were convicted of using funds meant for the European Parliament to pay staff that were working for RN.

RN is the largest opposition party in France, which poses a major threat to President Emmanuel Macron in next year's election - as the party enjoys widespread support throughout the country due to a pendulum shift back to conservative policies and anti-immigration views. 

Le Pen's appeal is scheduled to run from January 13th through February 12th, with a final ruling expected by this summer. If unsuccessful, Le Pen says her protege, 30-year-old party president Jordan Bardella, will run in her place. 

US President Donald Trump and senior members of his administration have voice support for Le Pen following her conviction, who will undoubtedly use her as an example of a weaponized judicial system in Europe that seeks to unfairly block right-wing politicians who oppose immigration from taking power. 

German magazine Der Spiegel claims that the Trump administration held internal discussions about sanctioning French prosecutors and judges involved in barring Le Pen, however US Under Secretary of State Sara B. Rogers denied the report as a "fake story."

That said, Reuters notes that "over the past year, the U.S. has imposed sanctions against 11 International Criminal Court judges involved in cases against Israel.

Le Pen has accused the judiciary of politically motivated targeting, telling French TV channel TF1 at the time "In the country of human rights, judges have implemented practices that we thought were reserved for authoritarian regimes."

Meanwhile, the European Parliament's lawyer Patrick Maisonneuve says he hopes Le Pen and her co-defendants' convictions would be upheld, including over 3 million in euro awarded in damages to the European Parliament. RN was also ordered to pay a 2 million fine, with half of the amount having been suspended. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 04:15

EU Official Plotted To 'Organize Resistance' Against Hungary's Orban, Files Show

Zero Hedge -

EU Official Plotted To 'Organize Resistance' Against Hungary's Orban, Files Show

Authored by Kit Klarenberg via The GrayZone,

A senior European Union official has been secretly seeking to remove Hungarian President Viktor Orban since at least 2019, according to leaked documents reviewed by The Grayzone. The files show in January 2019, the EU’s International Coordinator for the Directorate-General for Migration and Home Affairs, Marton Benedek, authored a “project proposal” aimed at “developing a permanent coordination forum to organize resistance against the Orban regime.” In addition to his role at the European border control agency, Benedek currently heads Brussels’ “cooperation” with Libya.

The impetus for Benedek’s plot was “an unprecedented set of anti-regime demonstrations in Hungary and among expat Hungarians” over controversial proposed legislation allowing businesses to compel employees to work overtime, and delay payment of their wages for an extended period. Thousands took to the streets before and after its implementation.

According to Benedek, outrage over what he referred to as “the slave law” had “compelled a small group of some 30 political, trade union and civic leaders to coordinate their activities, agree on a set of minimum objectives and funding principles, and jointly plan future action.” This had given birth to “an ad hoc coordination forum… which could develop, over time, into an incipient political coordinating body that could credibly challenge” Orban’s rule.

Benedek’s proposal to harness resistance to the so-called “slave law” and bring its opponents into a single political movement was likely a reaction to the pro-sovereignty positions pursued by Orban and his Fidesz party, which has consistently sought to maintain national veto power for member states and to prevent the bloc from enlarging further, to the great chagrin of Brussels.

Participating in the “ad hoc coordination forum” were a variety of NGOs, many of which have been acccused of receiving funds from George Soros’ Open Society FoundationsOSF relocated its Hungarian office to Berlin in April 2018, due to Orban’s government undertaking numerous measures to curb the activities and influence of foreign-financed NGOs locally. OSF activities in Budapest have been a closely-guarded secret ever since. Nonetheless, the most recent available figures indicate Soros’ personal regime change operation pumped $8.9 million into Hungary in 2021 alone.

The source who obtained the files told The Grayzone that the proposal was submitted to Open Society Foundations, although they were unable to furnish proof that the Soros-led organization received the documents or signed off on them.

In the document, Benedek wrote that he hoped “to develop a few ideas to transform this forum into a potent entity capable of planning and executing collective action” ahead of elections that would be held in Hungary in 2019 and 2022. Benedek stressed the need for expansive financing to “deliver results” not least as organizing a single “large demonstration in Budapest” cost roughly $11,000. The then-ongoing demonstrations relied on crowdfunding, and Hungarian political parties – which receive state funding – to cover “gaps” in “project management.”

Among Benedek’s “proposed lines of action” was the creation of “a non-profit entity, registered in Hungary (for operational activities) and a financial vehicle potentially registered in Austria.” A board comprising political party representatives, trade unions and NGOs “could provide the political steer for future action.

Benedek sought to maintain as broad of an anti-Orban coalition as possible, warning against “rapidly proceeding to controversial projects,” for instance uniting opposition parties to contest European elections. As these votes are “contested in a fully proportional system,” it was “quite rational” for parties “to run individual party lists.”

Instead, Benedek looked ahead to “organizing collective action” and “sustained opposition to the Orban regime” over contentious domestic political issues ahead of Hungary’s 2019 local and 2022 national elections. The operation would involve “primary campaigns, information campaigns, mobilisation campaigns, electoral debates and joint fundraising activities,” he wrote.

The senior EU functionary concluded by suggesting his proposed organization would ultimately morph into a shadow government that could seize power from the Hungarian president. “In the longer run, the proposed non-profit entity could also… develop the policy foundations (and shadow cabinet) of a united political front against the Orban regime.”

A failed test-run for toppling Orban?

By this point, Benedek had been intimately involved in anti-Orban activism in Hungary for many years, while also working in a variety of senior EU posts related to bloc enlargement and relations between aspiring member states. An official profile reveals he “led the European Commission’s visa liberalization dialogue” with the breakaway statelet of Kosovo, “oversaw rule of law reforms in the Western Balkans,” and coordinated “the EU’s internal security policies during Hungary’s EU Council Presidency” in 2011.

Benedek’s determined plotting against Orban clearly constitutes a conflict of interest. In October 2012 – the year that Orban’s disputes with Brussels significantly intensified – Benedek co-founded a party called Együtt, or Together. A progressive liberal party, it sought to forge an extremely broad political coalition in Hungary. Együtt’s explicit objective was to seize power and undo all reforms enacted by Fidesz since taking office two years prior. Its leaders urged parties of every ideological extraction to join their cause.

Read Benedek’s anti-Orban project proposal here.

Despite much initial media hype framing Együtt as Hungary’s premier opposition entity, and therefore a threat to Orban’s grip on power, the party failed miserably. Having been flatly rejected by the country’s right-wing, it formed a coalition with a quartet of green, liberal and social democratic parties. This was sufficient to elect three MPs to Budapest’s 199-seat parliament in 2014, although four years later that figure fell to just one. The lone lawmaker promptly defected to another party, and Együtt folded.

Despite the cataclysmic results, and Együtt’s chiefs being forced to pay back close to half a million dollars in state funding they received for campaigning activities due to abysmal electoral performance, Benedek was undeterred. In a 2017 interview, he branded allegations that his family had improperly profited from his mother’s senior position within the EU as a “Fidesz lie.” The fact that he was reaping a sizable salary from Brussels for sensitive, high-level work, while simultaneously playing opposition politician at home, was left unmentioned by his interviewers.

This matter should’ve been a source of significant critical interest and inquiry, however. Under formal rules, EU civil servants are supposed to be impartial and politically neutral. Officials must declare any personal or political interests that could compromise their independence, and obtain permission from superiors before engaging in external activity. One might think Benedek engaging in nakedly partisan political campaigning, both covert and overt, would be prohibited – unless of course it was signed off upon at the bloc’s highest levels.

In the leaked 2019 “project proposal,” Benedek boasted that “an online community that yours truly set up” was part of the anti-Orban “coordination forum.” That group, “Hazajöttünk túlórázni” (“We came home for overtime”), had attracted the interest of thousands of Hungarian emigres, which were drawn together when it “organised demonstrations against the Orban regime in 35 cities in Europe, North America, Asia and Australia.” How these actions were funded, and whether the EU played any role in bankrolling them, remains unclear.

While Együtt’s crusade to dislodge Orban crashed and burned, the experience offered clear lessons for future contenders. The first of these was that Hungarians are overwhelmingly right-wing, dooming virtually any explicitly progressive, liberal movement to failure. Second, and equally important, as Benedek noted in his “project proposal,” was that European parliament votes are conducted under proportional representation, making it much easier for smaller parties to break through in Brussels than in national elections. Recent political developments suggest Együtt’s contemporaries learned from their efforts, and adapted accordingly.

EU 'resistance' ambitions fulfilled by Tisza?

In March 2024, a little-known figure named Peter Magyar exploded onto Budapest’s political scene when he released secret recordings of his ex-wife, former Justice Minister Judit Varga, revealing that senior government figures attempted to sabotage the prosecution of a state official for corruption. Varga had resigned the previous month along with Hungarian President Katalin Novak, for signing off on the pardon of the deputy director of an orphanage who was implicated in covering up pedophilia.

Ever since, Varga has repeatedly claimed Magyar was physically abusive, and that she made the incriminating statements under duress. She has variously alleged Magyar locked her in a room without her consent, violently shoved her into a door while she was pregnant, and stormed around their shared residence menacing her with a knife. In April 2024, a police report was released exposing how Magyar attempted to forcibly seize custody of the pair’s children, while making a variety of threats to Varga. He denies the report’s authenticity.

These revelations have fallen almost entirely on deaf ears, however, while Magyar’s star has grown inexorably. Magyar became chief of the Tisza (Respect and Freedom) party almost overnight, and was immediately bestowed the title of “opposition leader” by mainstream media. While founded in 2020, Tisza had not previously competed in any elections or ever publicly campaigned. However, in the June 2024 European parliament election, Tisza garnered almost 30% of the vote, and seven seats. Today, the party enjoys a significant lead over Orban’s Fidesz in many national opinion polls.

From the very inception of Magyar’s stratospheric ascent, his political activities have been of intense interest to Western news outlets, with protests he routinely leads generating saturation coverage. At no point have obvious questions been asked as to whether Magyar’s abrupt emergence as Hungary’s leader-in-waiting was an organic phenomenon, or how his activities have been funded. Despite repeated promises, Magyar has yet to provide the public with any detailed financial statements. Instead, he claims Tisza relies on “micro-donations” from average citizens, and the largesse of popular local anti-government actor Ervin Nagy.

Immediately after Magyar assumed leadership over Tisza, he barnstormed through towns and villages across the country. The spectacular campaign often saw him addressing crowds from large stages featuring concert-ready audio equipment, along with videographers and professional security. Magyar has also been supported by highly sophisticated PR and social media efforts, as well as a liberal-leaning local mainstream media ecosystem which seems increasingly desperate to market him to right-wing voters.

In 2024, Hungarian academic Zsolt Enyedi published a typical profile of Magyar’s party, marvelling at Tisza’s “meteoric” and “unprecedented” rise, while acknowledging that its “ideological profile” is “amorphous” – which is quite an understatement.

Though he claims to be conservative, Magyar’s positions on many issues are unclear. For example, he has visited Ukraine and branded Moscow the proxy war’s “aggressor,” while Tisza has voted for European Parliament resolutions calling for more weapons for Kiev. The party’s representatives performatively donned Ukrainian flag t-shirts as they cheered Volodymyr Zelensky’s November 2024 address to the chamber.

Magyar has also promised to adopt the EU’s ban on Russian energy imports, a position opposed by the overwhelming majority of Hungarians. Adding to the confusion, Tisza supports the government’s refusal to send weapons to Kiev, as well as Ukraine’s EU accession. Magyar has admitted he avoids taking concrete positions on Ukraine, as the topic is “divisive” among domestic constituents. Pointed questions about his penchant for flip-flopping have prompted Tisza’s leader to storm out of live TV interviews.

Hungary on the verge of EU subjugation?

Nonetheless, one policy area in which Magyar is consistent, unequivocal, and in stark opposition to Fidesz, is the EU. Defining himself as avidly pro-European, he supports adoption of the Euro, as well as greater EU integration and federalism. If he comes to power, Budapest will no longer be an irritant to Brussels’ designs. It is likely to back the Ukrainian proxy war “for as long as it takes,” as EU chief Ursula von der Leyen has repeatedly pledged, and to eliminate the remaining vestiges of sovereignty from the bloc’s members.

Since late 2022, the EU has withheld billions of euros from Hungary due to “rule of law concerns.” Accessing these vast sums would require Fidesz to undertake major reforms in eight separate policy areas. However, Magyar has claimed once he takes office and Budapest is “a fully-fledged member of the EU,” the funds will instantly be unfrozen – a key Tisza pledge, which has propelled the party’s surging popularity ahead of Hungary’s national elections in April.

If current polling trends hold, Marton Benedek’s clandestine scheme to “organize resistance” and “credibly challenge” Orban may finally be fulfilled.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 03:30

China–EU EV Conflict Nears Resolution As New Pricing Framework Emerges

Zero Hedge -

China–EU EV Conflict Nears Resolution As New Pricing Framework Emerges

China and the EU took a significant step Monday toward easing their long-running electric vehicle trade dispute after Brussels released rules that could allow Chinese exporters to replace punitive tariffs with negotiated pricing commitments, according to the South China Morning Post.

The European Commission said companies may submit price undertakings that must be “adequate to eliminate the injurious effects of the subsidies and provide equivalent effect to duties”. Exporters are encouraged to include shipment limits and future EU investments, with assessments conducted under WTO rules. If accepted, the EU would revise its existing regulations.

The conflict dates back to the EU’s 2023 anti-subsidy probe, which resulted in 2024 duties of 7.8% to 35.3% for five years. China responded with investigations into European cognac, dairy and pork. While the tariffs technically remain, the new framework could replace them with minimum import prices.

China’s Ministry of Commerce welcomed the move, saying “the progress fully reflects the spirit of dialogue and the outcomes of consultations between China and the EU.” It added: “It shows that both China and the EU have the ability and willingness to properly resolve differences through dialogue and consultation under the framework of WTO rules and maintain the stability of automotive industrial and supply chains in China, the EU and the whole world,” calling it “conducive not only to ensuring the healthy development of China-EU economic and trade relations, but also to safeguarding the rules-based international trade order.”

SCMP writes that negotiations gained momentum after the EU began reviewing a price undertaking offer in December from Volkswagen’s Chinese joint venture. Economist Alicia Garcia-Herrero of Natixis called the potential shift from tariffs to price floors a major development.

China’s chamber of commerce in the EU described the move as a “soft landing” and “a constructive step forward for China–EU trade and investment cooperation, as well as for the broader bilateral relationship”, adding: “The consensus and arrangements reached will significantly strengthen business confidence, [and] create a more stable and predictable environment for Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers and related supply-chain companies investing and operating in Europe.”

Cui Hongjian of Beijing Foreign Studies University cautioned the change remains largely technical, noting that “At present, both sides are grappling with a certain lack of confidence [in each other].” Garcia-Herrero warned the scheme could weaken EU trade enforcement, raise costs for European buyers, and deepen Europe’s reliance on Chinese investment.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 02:45

Germany's Mittelstand Succession Crisis: Who Will Take the Reins?

Zero Hedge -

Germany's Mittelstand Succession Crisis: Who Will Take the Reins?

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

Germany faces a massive wave of business transfers. The decline in entrepreneurship and self-employment has multiple causes; blaming the young generation’s supposed obsession with work-life balance belongs more to the realm of fables.

When a productive and market-successful company exits the competition, productive capital is lost irretrievably. Jobs vanish, supply chains collapse, and established customer relationships dissolve. Often, foreign competitors step in to occupy the freed market niches. Value creation is lost for the domestic economy.

KfW Panel Shows the Numbers

A recent survey by the KfW Mittelstand Panel shows that Germany confronts exactly this fundamental problem. A demographically driven succession crisis is emerging: over 57% of Mittelstand business owners are now over 55. According to KfW, around 1.1 million business transfers or closures will occur by 2029 due to age. The survey of 13,000 firms also shows that about one in four companies at risk is considering a full shutdown because no suitable successor or buyer is available to fill the vacancy.

Mathematically, the situation is stark: in coming years, roughly 114,000 business closures are expected annually, while only about 109,000 orderly successions occur. The net balance is negative. New business formation would be required to close the gap—an endeavor naturally difficult in Germany. The succession problem spans all sectors and company sizes, from small craft shops or bakeries to classic industrial Mittelstand companies. The pool of potential business transferors grows due to demographics, while the pool of successors continues to shrink—a classic demographic gap.

The Ifo Institute paints an equally sobering picture: around 42% of family businesses cannot find an internal successor. Young people increasingly avoid taking over existing companies, preferring well-paid employment with social security and avoiding the substantial risks tied to entrepreneurship.

A New Reality

What drives the growing succession problem in Germany? Just a few years ago, aging society and rising closures could be cited alongside productivity trends and a shrinking domestic market as natural reasons for a contraction in the economy’s supply side.

Today, however, Germany’s population has grown by several million in a few years due to migration policies. With shrinking economic output, Germans are increasingly trapped in a spiral of scarcity. Alongside eroding productivity and industrial decline, massive redistribution programs benefiting those who have never contributed productively push the country’s productive class into economic tight spots.

And honestly: who wants to take entrepreneurial responsibility in such an anti-business climate? A country where leading officials, from Lars Klingbeil to Bärbel Bas, even the Chancellor, openly attack entrepreneurs depending on the day’s mood—while a compliant press gives them carte blanche for all manner of rhetorical nonsense.

It begs the question: how has self-employment, once a cornerstone for innovation, family traditions, risk capital, and breaking stagnant markets, decayed so profoundly?

In principle, anyone pursuing a serious entrepreneurial vision pays little attention to political chatter or bureaucratic whim—but in Germany, beyond demographics and a lack of successors, politically engineered realities make takeovers and sales extraordinarily difficult.

Structural Obstacles

Inheritance law, nearing another reform, targets the substance of Mittelstand firms—more than a mere deterrent. In many cases, succession becomes economically unviable. Complex, multi-heir transfers are costly, liquidity-straining, and bureaucratically labyrinthine. Potential inheritors or buyers face an entire economic crisis environment, alongside internal cultural shocks in companies tied closely to their founders.

Succession processes often end in frustration because tax, inheritance, and corporate law link transfers to complex conditions, deadlines, and exceptions monitored for years. Restructuring, investment, or personnel decisions can jeopardize tax benefits and trigger retroactive liabilities. The economy shrinks, fiscal pressures rise annually—most recently via CO₂ levies and commercial tax hikes to cover municipal deficits. No recovery is in sight. Germany is only at the beginning of deindustrialization and structural collapse.

The Green Deal looms—a future-destroying program for the next generation, who will one day see “Fridays for Future” protests and climate activists as symptoms of a severe societal illness no one restrained.

Cultural Retreat

Zooming out, the social and cultural climate reveals another key issue: society has largely abandoned family traditions. The collapse of reproduction rates reflects even in entrepreneur families. Passing a business to children and integrating them early into operations is increasingly the exception.

This is symptomatic of a deeper problem: belief in economic futures has eroded. Prosperity was once a promise for achievement; today it is often merely a state-managed allocation problem—via subsidies or a welfare apparatus consuming about a third of GDP. Society appears frozen. State institutions and parties shield themselves from criticism by framing entrepreneurs as greedy.

Current discourse demonstrates that conservative values, generational thinking, and meritocratic consensus are essential for national economic advancement. Change will occur when society realizes that wealth cannot be printed or centrally planned; it requires individuals willing to invest creativity, diligence, and courage into innovative products and services demanded by free markets.

In short: the turning point comes when Germany sheds the rotten patina of state control and recommits to bourgeois values of freedom, family, and economic ascent. That is the pivot.

* * *

About the author: Thomas Kolbe is a Gerrman is a graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 02:00

Peter Schiff: Printing Money Is Not the Cure for Cononavirus

Financial Armageddon -


Peter Schiff: Printing Money Is Not the Cure for Cononavirus



In his most recent podcast, Peter Schiff talked about coronavirus and the impact that it is having on the markets. Earlier this month, Peter said he thought the virus was just an excuse for stock market woes. At the time he believed the market was poised to fall anyway. But as it turns out, coronavirus has actually helped the US stock market because it has led central banks to pump even more liquidity into the world financial system. All this means more liquidity — central banks easing. In fact, that is exactly what has already happened, except the new easing is taking place, for now, outside the United States, particularly in China.” Although the new money is primarily being created in China, it is flowing into dollars — the dollar index is up — and into US stocks. Last week, US stock markets once again made all-time record highs. In fact, I think but for the coronavirus, the US stock market would still be selling off. But because of the central bank stimulus that has been the result of fears over the coronavirus, that actually benefitted not only the US dollar, but the US stock market.” In the midst of all this, Peter raises a really good question. The primary economic concern is that coronavirus will slow down output and ultimately stunt economic growth. Practically speaking, the world would produce less stuff. If the virus continues to spread, there would be fewer goods and services produced in a market that is hunkered down. Why would the Federal Reserve respond, or why would any central bank respond to that by printing money? How does printing more money solve that problem? It doesn’t. In fact, it actually exacerbates it. But you know, everybody looks at central bankers as if they’ve got the solution to every problem. They don’t. They don’t have the magic wand. They just have a printing press. And all that creates is inflation.” Sometimes the illusion inflation creates can look like a magic wand. Printing money can paper over problems. But none of this is going to fundamentally fix the economy. In fact, if central bankers were really going to do the right thing, the appropriate response would be to drain liquidity from the markets, not supply even more.” Peter explained how the Fed was originally intended to create an “elastic” money supply that would expand or contract along with economic output. Today, the money supply only goes in one direction — that’s up. The economy is strong, print money. The economy is weak, print even more money.” Of course, the asset that’s doing the best right now is gold. The yellow metal pushed above $1,600 yesterday. Gold is up 5.5% on the year in dollar terms and has set record highs in other currencies. Because gold is rising even in an environment where the dollar is strengthening against other fiat currencies, that shows you that there is an underlying weakness in the dollar that is right now not being reflected in the Forex markets, but is being reflected in the gold markets. Because after all, why are people buying gold more aggressively than they’re buying dollars or more aggressively than they’re buying US Treasuries? Because they know that things are not as good for the dollar or the US economy as everybody likes to believe. So, more people are seeking out refuge in a better safe-haven and that is gold.” Peter also talked about the debate between Trump and Obama over who gets credit for the booming economy – which of course, is not booming.






Dump the Dollar before Bank Runs start in America -- Economic Collapse 2020

Financial Armageddon -












We are living in crazy times. I have a hard time believing that most of the general public is not awake, but in reality, they are. We've never seen anything like this; I mean not even under Obama during the worst part of the Great Recession." Now the Fed is desperately trying to keep interest rates from rising. The problem is that it's a much bigger debt bubble this time around , and the Fed is going to have to blow a lot more air into it to keep it inflated. The difference is this time it's not going to work." It looks like the Fed did another $104.15 billion of Not Q.E. in a single day. The Fed claims it's only temporary. But that is precisely what Bernanke claimed when the Fed started QE1. Milton Freedman once said, "Nothing is so permanent as a temporary government program." The same applies to Q.E., or whatever the Fed wants to pretend it's doing. Except this is not QE4, according to Powell. Right. Pumping so much money out, and they are accusing China of currency manipulation ? Wow! Seriously! Amazing! Dump the U.S. dollar while you still have a chance. Welcome to The Atlantis Report. And it is even worse than that, In addition to the $104.15 billion of "Not Q.E." this past Thursday; the FED added another $56.65 billion in liquidity to financial markets the next day on Friday. That's $160.8 billion in two days!!!! in just 48 hours. That is more than 2 TIMES the highest amount the FED has ever injected on a monthly basis under a Q.E. program (which was $80 billion per month) Since this isn't QE....it will be really scary on what they are going to call Q.E. Will it twice, three times, four times, five times what this injection per month ! It is going to be explosive since it takes about 60 to 90 days for prices to react to this, January should see significant inflation as prices soak up the excess liquidity. The question is, where will the inflation occur first . The spike in the repo rate might have a technical explanation: a misjudgment was made in the Fed's money market operations. Even so, two conclusions can be drawn: managing the money markets is becoming harder, and from now on, banks will be studying each other's creditworthiness to a greater degree than before. Those people, who struggle with the minutiae of money markets, and that includes most professionals, should focus on the causes and not the symptoms. Financial markets have recovered from each downturn since 1980 because interest rates have been cut to new lows. Post-2008, they were cut to near zero or below zero in all major economies. In response to a new financial crisis, they cannot go any lower. Central banks will look for new ways to replicate or broaden Q.E. (At some point, governments will simply see repression as an easier option). Then there is the problem of 'risk-free' assets becoming risky assets. Financial markets assume that the probability of major governments such as the U.S. or U.K. defaulting is zero. These governments are entering the next downturn with debt roughly twice the levels proportionate to GDP that was seen in 2008. The belief that the policy worked was completely predicated on the fact that it was temporary and that it was reversible, that the Fed was going to be able to normalize interest rates and shrink its balance sheet back down to pre-crisis levels. Well, when the balance sheet is five-trillion, six-trillion, seven-trillion when we're back at zero, when we're back in a recession, nobody is going to believe it is temporary. Nobody is going to believe that the Fed has this under control, that they can reverse this policy. And the dollar is going to crash. And when the dollar crashes, it's going to take the bond market with it, and we're going to have stagflation. We're going to have a deep recession with rising interest rates, and this whole thing is going to come imploding down. everything is temporary with the fed including remaining off the gold standard temporary in the Fed's eyes could mean at least 50 years This liquidity problem is a signal that trading desks are loaded up on inventory and can't get rid of it. Repo is done out of a need for cash. If you own all of your securities (i.e., a long-only, no leverage mutual fund) you have no need to "repo" your securities - you're earning interest every night so why would you want to 'repo' your securities where you are paying interest for that overnight loan (securities lending is another animal). So, it is those that 'lever-up' and need the cash for settlement purposes on securities they've bought with borrowed money that needs to utilize the repo desk. With this in mind, as we continue to see this need to obtain cash (again, needed to settle other securities purchases), it shows these firms don't have the capital to add more inventory to, what appears to be, a bloated inventory. Now comes the fun part: the Treasury is about to auction 3's, 10's, and 30-year bonds. If I am correct (again, I could be wrong), the Fed realizes securities firms don't have the shelf space to take down a good portion of these auctions. If there isn't enough retail/institutional demand, it will lead to not only a crappy sale but major concerns to the street that there is now no backstop, at all, to any sell-off. At which point, everyone will want to be the first one through the door and sell immediately, but to whom? If there isn't enough liquidity in the repo market to finance their positions, the firms would be unable to increase their inventory. We all saw repo shut down on the 2008 crisis. Wall St runs on money. . OVERNIGHT money. They lever up to inventory securities for trading. If they can't get overnight money, they can't purchase securities. And if they can't unload what they have, it means the buy-side isn't taking on more either. Accounts settle overnight. This includes things like payrolls and bill pay settlements. If a bank doesn't have enough cash to payout what its customers need to pay out, it borrows. At least one and probably more than one banks are insolvent. That's what's going on. First, it can't be one or two banks that are short. They'd simply call around until they found someone to lend. But they did that, and even at markedly elevated rates, still, NO ONE would lend them the money. That tells me that it's not a problem of a couple of borrowers, it's a problem of no lenders. And that means that there's no bank in the world left with any real liquidity. They are ALL maxed out. But as bad as that is, and that alone could be catastrophic, what it really signals is even worse. The lending rates are just the flip side of the coin of the value of the assets lent against. If the rates go up, the value goes down. And with rates spiking to 10%, how far does the value fall? Enormously! And if banks had to actually mark down the value of the assets to reflect 10% interest rates, then my god, every bank in the world is insolvent overnight. Everyone's capital ratios are in the toilet, and they'd have to liquidate. We're talking about the simultaneous insolvency of every bank on the planet. Bank runs. No money in ATMs, Branches closed. Safe deposit boxes confiscated. The whole nine yards, It's actually here. The scenario has tended to guide toward for years and years is actually happening RIGHT NOW! And people are still trying to say it's under control. Every bank in the world is currently insolvent. The only thing keeping it going is printing billions of dollars every day. Financial Armageddon isn't some far off future risk. It's here. Prepare accordingly. This fiat system has reached the end of the line, and it's not correct that fiat currencies fail by design. The problem is corruption and manipulation. It is corruption and cheating that erodes trust and faith until the entire system becomes a gigantic fraud. Banks and governments everywhere ARE the problem and simply have to be removed. They have lost all trust and respect, and all they have left is war and mayhem. As long as we continue to have a majority of braindead asleep imbeciles following orders from these psychopaths, nothing will change. Fiat currency is not just thievery. Fiat currency is SLAVERY. Ultimately the most harmful effect of using debt of undefined value as money (i.e., fiat currencies) is the de facto legalization of a caste system based on voluntary slavery. The bankers have a charter, or the legal *right*, to create money out of nothing. You, you don't. Therefore you and the bankers do not have the same standing before the law. The law of the land says that you will go to jail if you do the same thing (creating money out of thin air) that the banker does in full legality. You and the banker are not equal before the law. ALL the countries of the world; Islamic or secular, Jewish or Arab, democracy or dictatorship; all of them place the bankers ABOVE you. And all of you accept that only whining about fiat money going down in exchange value over time (price inflation which is not the same as monetary inflation). Actually, price inflation itself is mainly due to the greed and stupidity of the bankers who could keep fiat money's exchange value reasonably stable, only if they wanted to. Witness the crash of silver and gold prices which the bankers of the world; Russian, American, Chinese, Jewish, Indian, Arab, all of them collaborated to engineer through the suppression and stagnation of precious metals' prices to levels around the metals' production costs, or what it costs to dig gold and silver out of the ground. The bankers of the world could also collaborate to keep nominal prices steady (as they do in the case of the suppression of precious metals prices). After all, the ability to create fiat money and force its usage is a far more excellent source of power and wealth than that which is afforded simply by stealing it through inflation. The bankers' greed and stupidity blind them to this fact. They want it all, and they want it now. In conclusion, The bankers can create money out of nothing and buy your goods and services with this worthless fiat money, effectively for free. You, you can't. You, you have to lead miserable existences for the most of you and WORK in order to obtain that effectively nonexistent, worthless credit money (whose purchasing/exchange value is not even DEFINED thus rendering all contracts based on the null and void!) that the banker effortlessly creates out of thin air with a few strokes of the computer keyboard, and which he doesn't even bother to print on paper anymore, electing to keep it in its pure quantum uncertain form instead, as electrons whizzing about inside computer chips which will become mute and turn silent refusing to tell you how many fiat dollars or euros there are in which account, in the absence of electricity. No electricity, no fiat, nor crypto money. It would appear that trust is deteriorating as it did when Lehman blew up . Something really big happened that set off this chain reaction in the repo markets. Whatever that something is, we aren't be informed. They're trying to cover it up, paper it over with conjured cash injections, play it cool in front of the cameras while sweating profusely under the 5 thousands dollar suits. I'm guessing that the final high-speed plunge into global economic collapse has begun. All we see here is the ripples and whitewater churning the surface, but beneath the surface, there is an enormous beast thrashing desperately in its death throws. Now is probably the time to start tying up loose ends with the long-running prep projects, just saying. In other words, prepare accordingly, and Get your money out of the banks. I don't care if you don't believe me about Bitcoin. Get your money out of the banks. Don't keep any more money in a bank than you need to pay your bills and can afford to lose.











The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more













The Financial Armageddon Economic Collapse Blog tracks trends and forecasts , futurists , visionaries , free investigative journalists , researchers , Whistelblowers , truthers and many more

Hillary Clinton's Top Secret Files Revealed Here

Financial Armageddon -

The FBI released a summary of its file from the Hillary Clinton email investigation on Friday, showing details of Clinton's explanation of her use of a private email server to handle classified communications. The release comes nearly two months after FBI Director James Comey announced that although Clinton's handling of classified information was "extremely careless," it did not rise to the level of a prosecutable offense. Attorney General Loretta Lynch announced the next day that she would not pursue charges in the matter. "We are making these materials available to the public in the interest of transparency and in response to numerous Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests," the FBI noted in a statement sent to reporters with links to the documents. The documents include notes from Clinton's July 2 interview with agents, as well as a "factual summary of the FBI's investigation into this matter," according to the FBI release. Throughout her interview with agents, Clinton repeatedly said she relied on the career professionals she worked with to handle classified information correctly. The agents asked about a series of specific emails, and in each case Clinton said she wasn't worried about the particular material being discussed on a nonclassified channel.





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