Q2 2012 real GDP now shows 1.25% annualized growth after revisions. The advance second quarter GDP estimate was 1.5%, whereas the second revision reported 1.7% GDP growth. The BEA rounds their final GDP numbers, so the actual GDP reported was 1.3%. When we're grabbing economic crumbs, 0.05 percentage points makes a difference.
What the Q2 GDP third estimate shows is a barely breathing economy. Businesses shed inventories, consumers spent way less, a dramatic swing from the Q2 GDP advance report and investment generally is down from the 1st quarter. Shedding inventories can be a recession indicator. Durable goods spending literally vanished in Q2, also a recession indicator. The drought showed up in Q2 GDP, negatively impacting farm inventories and potentially other GDP components indirectly.
The Manufacturing and Trade Sales and Inventories report shows a -1.1% decrease in sales and an +0.1% increase in inventories for June 2012. Sales declined -1.1% for manufacturers, -0.8% for retailers and -1.4% for wholesalers. This is the 3rd month in a row for declining sales and this is the largest monthly percentage decrease since March 2009.
The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders report shows a -0.5% new orders decrease for June. The last three of four months in manufacturing new orders have shown declines. May revised down, from +0.7% to +0.5%. This Census statistical release is called Factory Orders by the press and covers both durable and non-durable manufacturing orders, shipments and inventories.
Business Inventories, or Manufacturing and Trade Sales and Inventories, show a -0.1% decrease in sales and an +0.3% increase in inventories for May 2012. Inventories for Merchant wholesalers increased +0.3%, manufacturers' inventories declined -0.2% and retailer's inventories increased +1.0%.
The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders report shows a May 0.7% new orders increase after two months of decline. This statistical release is called Factory Orders by the press and covers both durable and non-durable manufacturing orders, shipments and inventories.
The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders report shows an April -0.6% decline in new orders after March's -2.1% new orders decline. This report is called Factory Orders by the press and covers both durable and non-durable manufacturing orders, shipments and inventories.
The April 2012 ISM Manufacturing Survey increased +1.4 percentage points to 54.8% PMI, and indicates U.S. Manufacturing grew at a faster pace in April. Survey respondents are concerned about economic conditions in Europe and worry about the meager U.S. job growth. Food and Beverages report warm weather increased their sales and Computers & Electronics says sales are slowing.
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